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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

CHINA: Woman dies of suspected Bird Flu
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    Posted: March 23 2006 at 4:23am
   

Woman dies of suspected bird flu in Shanghai-TV

Thu 23 Mar 2006

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - A woman has died of what could be bird flu in the eastern Chinese city of Shanghai, state television said on Thursday.
The patient, a 29-year-old female migrant worker, died on Tuesday of a pneumonia of unconfirmed origin, an official at the Shanghai municipality information office told Reuters.


The case is under investigation for bird flu, Shanghai Television said.
China has recorded 15 confirmed cases of bird flu in humans since late last year, 10 of whom have died.

Doctors and nurses who tended the patient were under quarantine, said a source at the hospital, adding it was awaiting final test results.

"It's a suspected case, but not confirmed," the source told Reuters.
The Ministry of Health declined immediate comment. The World Health Organisation said it was investigating.

"We are verifying this rumour at the moment. We are still treating this as a rumour since there is no confirmation yet," said Aphaluck Bhatiasevi, WHO spokeswoman in Beijing.

Epidemiologists fear that bird flu could trigger a pandemic if it mutates to a form which can be transmitted from human to human.


http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=456242006
    


    
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China investigating if Shanghai woman died from bird flu

Thursday • March 23, 2006

A woman in Shanghai has died of pneumonia of unknown causes and authorities are testing to see if it was bird flu, a government official told AFP.

The woman, a 29-year-old migrant worker, died on Tuesday, an official with the Shanghai government's information office said.

"We're carrying out tests right now. Until those tests are completed, we cannot say for sure what it is and we cannot rule out the possibility that it could be bird flu," the official said Thursday.

The official ruled out the pneumonia-like disease Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, which struck China in 2003 and spread to several countries, killing around 800 people.

China has reported 34 outbreaks of deadly bird flu among poultry since the beginning of last year and 15 confirmed human cases of bird flu, resulting in 10 deaths.

If confirmed, the case involving the migrant woman would be the first human bird flu case in China's largest city.

Shanghai's Xinmin Evening News reported on its website that the woman's condition rapidly deteriorated and efforts to save her failed.

A spokeswoman for the World Health Organization (WHO) in Beijing told AFP it has requested information from China's health ministry about this case. But so far, the UN agency doesn't know the any details, such as whether the woman was exposed to any poultry.

"It would depend on the diagnosis that are conducted," said Aphaluck Bhatiasevi about the determining factors of bird flu. "The date of onset, when the person developed symptoms of illness, how fast illness progressed -- we don't have any such information."

She noted that last year, around 150 cases of pneumonia of unknown cause were reported in China.

The bird flu virus has killed more than 100 people worldwide since 2003, mostly in Asia. It has spread from Asia to Europe and Africa in recent months. — AFP

http://www.todayonline.com/articles/108608.asp


    
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Trident/Delta View Drop Down
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OK, important things to watch for in the press.
 
1. Notice that this death didn't include the disclaimer that the patient "worked with poultry"
 
2. They have placed the doctors and nurses in quarantine
 
3. If you see the phrase "lysine substitution" in connection with an H5N1 story., Be afraid...
 
TTFN
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Just noticed this little jewel buried in the story:
 
"She noted that last year, around 150 cases of pneumonia of unknown cause were reported in China. "
 
In the words of "Robot" from "Lost-in-Space"....
 
"Danger Will Robinson....Danger!"
 
TTFN
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Originally posted by Trident/Delta Trident/Delta wrote:

Just noticed this little jewel buried in the story:

"She noted that last year, around 150 cases of pneumonia of unknown cause were reported in China. "


In the words of "Robot" from "Lost-in-Space"....
 

"Danger Will Robinson....Danger!"

 
TTFN


    
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lysine substitution??????
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I was thinking the same thing, "lysine substitution???"
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 and 15 confirmed human cases of bird flu, resulting in 10 deaths.
That kinda puts the death rate vs infection at 66.6 percent doesn't it?
 
When you start taking these articles apart the Truth becomes much clearer.
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Lysine is to do with the genetics of H5N1.

For example, from one study "Interestingly, the human A/Vietnam/1203/04 isolate had a lysine substitution at position 627 of PB2 and had one to eight amino acid changes in all gene products except that of the M1 gene, unlike the A/chicken/Vietnam/C58/04 and A/quail/Vietnam/36/04 viruses."
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Originally posted by Thomas Angel Thomas Angel wrote:

 and 15 confirmed human cases of bird flu, resulting in 10 deaths.
That kinda puts the death rate vs infection at 66.6 percent doesn't it?
 
When you start taking these articles apart the Truth becomes much clearer.


Well it depends what you mean by truth. An accurate deathrate is hard to come by, due to factors such as unconfirmed cases, possibly undetected milder cases, and delays with some patients being admitted to hospital causing more fatalities.

As far as Im concerned the actual average deathrate so far could be anything from 10% to 70%
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There was just another thread made this morning saying that it takes a minimum of a 30 day hospital stay to recover from H5N1.  30 days in a hospital is not going to be available for anyone when SHTF so I'll see your 70% and raise you another 20...
 
Which is likely even closer to the truth.
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Well if you are trying to work out the actual deathrate when it goes pandemic, your truth is even further away from what I think.

Yes its true that once the pandemic is in full flow, many people who need hospital care wont get it. But that has to be balanced against the widely held assumption that many many people who get H5N1 in a pandemic easyH2H form, will not get sick enough to require hospital care. We dont even know how many people exist that may of had a milder H5N1 already. We only know about the sickest cases, who are more likely to die with or without hospital care.

It is not theoretically impossible that the deathrate could be 90%, but the odds are very very heavily against it, there are clearly a number of mechanisms that protect a lot of humans from death from disease.

Also nfecton rate just as important as death rate. Even a scary 90% deathrate isnt so bad if the infection rate is only 1%.
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Shanghai says bird flu may have killed woman

2006-03-24

A MIGRANT woman who worked in Shanghai has died of a suspected bird flu infection, and the city is stepping up inspections of poultry shipments from out of town, health authorities said last night.

The city has asked the Ministry of Health to send experts for a final diagnosis of the case. The woman was identified as a Ms Li, 29. Her hometown was not reported.

Health authorities said Li visited doctors in Shanghai on March 15, complaining of cough and fever.

Her condition deteriorated quickly, and she died on Tuesday night despite hospital treatment, authorities said.

An unspecified number of people who had come in close contact with the woman have been put under medical observation. None showed any signs of illness as of last night, health authorities said.

Medical workers have sterilized every site the woman visited in town.

No bird flu outbreaks among poultry have been reported in Shanghai since early 2004. There has never been a confirmed human case of the disease in the city.

As a result of the woman's death, quarantine authorities have intensified monitoring of animals at highway checkpoints, the city's animal epidemic center said. They have also warned poultry markets to take preventive measures such as sterilizing facilities.

Meanwhile, health authorities said there was no reason for local residents to be unduly concerned as long as they practice good personal hygiene.

China has confirmed 15 cases of human avian flu since last year. Ten of the victims died.

In Beijing yesterday, the Chinese and American Red Cross societies launched a campaign to blanket China with millions of posters to teach the public how to avoid bird flu as health experts warned of new virus risks when migrating birds return from their winter homes.


http://www.shanghaidaily.com/art/2006/03/24/253883/Shanghai_says_bird_flu_may_have_killed_woman.htm


    
    
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2006 at 10:59am
And this is the country that told us earlier this week they had eradicated the BF disease!!!

Lysine substitution: so now I know then, but dont understand a word of it. Thanks anyway.

HD

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I would like to see these posters they may tell us if this is H2H
Why would China just now decided to lunch this campaign
Maybe they know something or they can’t trace the woman’s
Movements when she was sick?
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What would the need be of sterilizing every place this woman visited in town if it was just a bacterial pneumonia?  --Gut feeling..........something has scared the governmental officials.  Why else would they be working with the American Red Cross in order to educate the public about a disease they supposedly do not have (or at least have said they have completely under control)?  I wonder if the hospital staff will be kept in quarantine for 7-10 days to ensure they do not have the disease?  We may not find out.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Well after the bird flu started spreading more globally in recent months, and migratory birds became a 'probable' rather than a 'possible' cause, China started saing more scary stuff, not jsut the old 'everything is under total control' stuff. They have publicly stated that they expect more problems when birds start moving around China in the coming months. Plus they actually report some deaths now (we dont know how compete a picture is but its better than no picture).

I would guess that they take this case seriously because it has some signs of being possible bird flu. She went downhill quickly, is the right sort of age, and there are other details that they know and we dont.
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A note on lysine and h5n1 from wikipedia:

  • PB2 codes for the PB2 protein which is a critical component of the viral polymerase. 75% of H5N1 human virus isolates from Vietnam had a mutation consisting of Lysine at residue 627 in the PB2 protein; which is believed to cause high levels of virulence. [6] [20] Until H5N1, all known avian influenza viruses had a Glu at position 627, while all human influenza viruses had a lysine.
I had a little bird,
his name was Enza;
I opened the window,
and influenza.
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We should definately know soon.  This could be patient 0 if more cases are detected  in Shanghai.
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China has had positive BF fatalities before and has not acted like this in response to the person dying.  I wonder what is different about this woman that has them so concerned?  What is so different with this case that has them not only quarantining the hospital staff that was in contact with her, but they are also sterilizing the areas in town where she had visited, quarantining people in the community, sterilizing poultry markets, placing animal checkpoints around the city, and working with the American Red Cross to suddenly educate the public about how to avoid getting ill from the virus.  Something really sounds bad about this whole situation.
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A friend is going to China in about 6-weeks. He is going to visit a business acquaintance, a manager of a surgical mask factory. He'll let me know what he finds.
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Originally posted by fafhrd fafhrd wrote:


A note on lysine and h5n1 from wikipedia:
  • PB2 codes for the PB2 protein which is a critical component of the viral polymerase.
    75% of H5N1 human virus isolates from Vietnam had a mutation consistingof Lysine at residue 627 in the PB2 protein; which is believed to causehigh levels of virulence. Until H5N1, all known avian influenza viruses had a Glu at position 627, while all human influenza viruses had a lysine.



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    More H5N1 samples to be sent worldwide
    By Zhang Feng and Zhao Huanxin (China Daily)
    Updated: 2006-03-24 06:30

    A new batch of Chinese avian flu virus samples will within weeks be delivered worldwide to laboratories designated by the World Health Organization (WHO), China Daily has learned.

    The batch, as agreed between the Chinese Government and the WHO at the end of 2005, will consist of 20 samples, much more than the five samples delivered in 2004.

    "China has done a very, very good job," said Shigeru Omi, regional director of WHO Western Pacific, when he announced the new shipment at a two-day conference in Beijing that ended yesterday.

    According to Julie Hall, co-ordinator of communicable disease surveillance and response at the WHO Beijing office, regular sharing of information among all countries, the global health body and other international organizations is an effective weapon to fight the disease, whose virus is fast mutating.

    Such sharing of information is vital for research, including developing a vaccine against a possible pandemic.

    Because there have been regular outbreaks among poultry as well as human infections in China, samples, laboratory results and knowledge of field practices would be useful for the rest of the world, she added.

    The scheduled delivery, however, will contain only virus samples from bird flu outbreaks in poultry, as was the case in 2004. All samples of the avian flu virus are kept under tight surveillance at the National Avian Influenza Reference Laboratory in Harbin, capital of Heilongjiang Province in Northeast China.

    Mao Qun'an, spokesperson for the Ministry of Health, told China Daily that China had provided two virus samples from human infections in December 2005, after the cases were first reported in the country in October.

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    What's with the lysine substitution?  Does a mutation to substitute lysine (you didn't say _by_ lysine, or _for_ lysine, so I won't either) affect the selectivity of binding sites?  Say from deep lung tissue to the nasopharyngeal area?

    (Otherwise, all I can think of is a vague reference to Jurassic Park...)
    The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.
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    IMO and understanding it makes it more infectious to humans
    Siam
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