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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

Christmas-crises 2022

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Christmas-crises 2022
    Posted: December 24 2022 at 1:46am

Part 1, DJ....

-Lots of crises only worsened this-almost over-2022....From political crises in most countries, climate crisis-with the US now colder then the north pole...[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/12/wild-winter-weather.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/12/wild-winter-weather.html ...Of course the economy has "problems" as a result of the many other crises...

CoViD/health crises...with "western billionaire owned embedded media" now blaming China for lifting its zero-CoViD policies...Possibly millions of new cases in China each day....However [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data the UK is moving high speed towards 3,5 million "active-symptomatic CoViD cases"....[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/its-britains-third-ever-largest-covid-wave-and-its-still-climbing/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/its-britains-third-ever-largest-covid-wave-and-its-still-climbing/

The simple fact is, however, if you live in the UK, you almost certainly know someone that is sick at the moment, and in many cases, you probably know an entire family or two. Sickness is everywhere, There is almost no Covid testing available to the general public, no mitigations are in place or encouraged, and there hasn’t been a single peep from British politicians about the pandemic for months.

We’ve all been here before. We all know how this shitshow ends, right?

DJ...to combine a few crises..."politicians-for-sale" (pfs) again blaming China for a next -global- CoViD wave while the same "political criminals" claim we "have to live with it" and simply stopped testing in most western countries...The real number of cases for all kind of infections may go for another record...but people are tired of all of the bla-bla....

-Wars,

DJ-I expected Putin would push for an end to the Ukraine war this year...Climate crisis-it is hardly freezing so far in Ukraine-the major Russian ally in history -its wars against NApoleon, NAzi's now NAto- "winter" still has to do its part...Very likely january, february winter will "do its thing" in Ukraine...

"Western embedded media" claim "North Korea" is getting more involved...earlier they claimed Iran was "a partner" for Russia in the Ukraine war...DJ-IF !!!! North Korea, Iran would become more active on the Russian side in Ukraine they want Russian support for their goals in return....

I do expect that-after NATO internationalized the Ukraine war, with lots of US, UK, Polish, Romanian, Baltic, (and Georgian, IS) forces  fighting for the Kiev-junta, Russia could seek to internationalize its forces in -a.o.- the Ukraine war...Iran-drones most likely are "Iran-design" drones build in Russia...Russia may have changed old munition from North Korea with new munition...

Russia has the basics for a long war...does not need to import anything to keep the war going....Artillery is the main "tool" limiting Russian losses, killing hundreds of Ukraine fighters each day...Ukraine daily is shelling (pro)Russian(Ukrainians) in the Russia controlled part of Ukraine...

The "Iran-deal" is history -with netanyahu now having an extreme right wing government in Israel...Still netanyahu has "good contacts" with Putin...so he will go for "balancing" between the US and Russia, China, EU....Merkel "Zeit"-interview did end all hopes the "rest of the world" had talking to "the west" had any point....

So what is next ? The rest going for "limiting/destroying" the west....via most economic war...

[url]https://thesaker.is/can-china-help-brazil-restart-its-global-soft-power/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/can-china-help-brazil-restart-its-global-soft-power/ The US did put bolsonaro in power-destroying Brazil...is behind yet another coup in Peru...South America may become another battle ground...

"The west" is "breaking up" ...not only does western Europe less and less agree with US/UK "foreign insanity"...also countries could be breaking up...UK may soon be England and Wales...Scotland joining a changing EU-going for the Euro...like a re-united Ireland...other regions in Europe (Catalunya, Corsica, Bavaria) may seek more self rule...

-Can we survive 2023 ? Even when one knows the risks it may become hard...Here in NL we can NOT deal with a hurricane moving this way...We face a lot of crises on health, housing, politics, economy, climate....And then NL is one of the best places to be....

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 24 2022 at 10:43am

part 2, 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/12/21/rivm-confirms-flu-epidemic-netherlands-respiratory-viruses-circulating[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/12/21/rivm-confirms-flu-epidemic-netherlands-respiratory-viruses-circulating ;

The number of people with the flu has risen to such an extent that it is now officially an epidemic, the RIVM announced. "The flu virus is found in more and more throat and nose samples from people with flu-like complaints," said the national health institute on Wednesday.

Laboratories, hospitals and general practitioners have increasingly encountered the influenza virus in recent weeks, and the GPs said they are also seeing more patients with flu-like symptoms. The RIVM is monitoring the situation together with research institute Nivel and Erasmus MC. Together they run the National Influenza Center.


The institutes are not using the same pre-coronavirus criteria to determine whether there is a flu epidemic. Previously, an epidemic was first named when more than 58 out of 100,000 people went to their GP with complaints reminiscent of the flu, and 10 percent of the samples examined actually contained the flu virus. In the past week, the number of symptomatic people was below the per capita threshold at 52 per 100,000 inhabitants.

However, of the samples examined in the lab, 21 percent contained the flu virus.


"Just like in the winter of 2021/2022, it is now also difficult to determine whether there is a flu epidemic based solely on these figures," the RIVM explained. "The symptoms of flu are very similar to those of Covid-19. Many people with flu-like symptoms are now doing a coronavirus self-test and may go to the doctor less often." Considering all the information, the scientists determined that the word epidemic is appropriate.

So another method needed to call it a flu-epidemic (by now maybe flu pandemic ?)

In addition to the flu, several other respiratory viruses are also circulating. Even more often than the flu, laboratories encounter the human metapneumovirus, which can cause approximately the same symptoms. This virus can also vary greatly in severity; Just like the flu, it can remain with a cough and fever, but people can also get pneumonia. The human metapneumovirus was present in 23 of 102 samples examined last week. The RS virus and the rhinovirus are also circulating. The coronavirus is also observed, but not as often at the moment. In addition to the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, a regular seasonal coronavirus is also circulating.

So...if you test for "CoViD" could a positive test find a "cold-corona"virus-"false alarm"? 

Nivel called the rising trend in the number of respiratory infections "appropriate for the time of year." What is also striking is that GPs are seeing a relatively large number of children who are ill due to one of the viruses.

It is the second flu epidemic of 2022. The first wave of flu started in March and was over after thirteen weeks. The fact that the previous flu epidemic only started late in the season was most likely because the flu virus barely had a chance to spread in the previous period due to all the measures against the coronavirus

and [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/12/20/dutch-covid-hospital-patient-total-jumps-27-new-coronavirus-variant-dominates[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/12/20/dutch-covid-hospital-patient-total-jumps-27-new-coronavirus-variant-dominates

After weeks of declining figures, the number of patients receiving treatment for Covid-19 in Dutch hospitals rose by 27 percent since last Tuesday, according to data from patient coordination service LCPS. Meanwhile, the number of new coronavirus infections remained roughly flat this week, but the Omicron sub-variant BQ.1 has emerged as the new dominant strain of the virus in the Netherlands.

There were 610 patients with the coronavirus disease in hospital care on Tuesday, up from 477 a week earlier. The current total includes 26 people in intensive care units, compared to 19 last Tuesday.


An average of 99 people with the disease were admitted to hospitals each of the past seven days, including six sent directly to an ICU. The combined figure rose by about 10 percent in total.

These increases happened despite a change in how the LCPS counts the patient total. Previously, the total included patients still in care with Covid-19 but who were no longer considered contagious. Those patients are no longer classified as being in the Covid-19 total as of 12 December.

So non-contagious CoViD-cases excluded from NL CoViD hospital statistics ? 

The coronavirus BQ.1 subvariant is now dominant in the Netherlands, according to data from the RIVM released on Tuesday. An assessment from the World Health Organization in October noted that the sub-variant is an offshoot of the BA.5 Omicron variant, with spike mutations at certain key positions. The sub-variant is not believed to make people sicker compared to other coronavirus strains.

However, it does have “a significant growth advantage” compared to other Omicron sub-variants, the WHO said. It may be more capable of evading built-up immunity from exposure or vaccination, and may have a higher risk of re-infection.

Still, the number of new infections rose by a slim 1.5 percent in a week, holding under 6,000 officially diagnosed infections. That figure does not include people who only took a self-test at home. It does include over 800 people residing in a nursing home.

Increases of coronavirus particles are still being seen in sewage surveillance. Those figures have been on the rise for several weeks

DJ; [url]https://coronadashboard.government.nl/[/url] or https://coronadashboard.government.nl/ testing positive +2% (with most cases simply not PCR tested...) Waste water sampling +9% virus particles...https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/reproductiegetal 1,09

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hospitalization/wapo-vaccinated-people-who-never-had-covid-at-least-three-times-as-likely-to-be-infected-as-unvaccinated-with-prior-infection/[/url] or 

https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hospitalization/wapo-vaccinated-people-who-never-had-covid-at-least-three-times-as-likely-to-be-infected-as-unvaccinated-with-prior-infection/

“A Lancet study found that those who were vaccinated but never had covid were four times as likely to have severe illness resulting in hospitalization or death compared to the unvaccinated who recovered from it.”

From a Washington Post opinion piece by Leana Wen on 18th December 2022:

One Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study found that vaccinated people who never had covid were at least three times as likely to be infected as unvaccinated people with prior infection.

A Lancet study found that those who were vaccinated but never had covid were four times as likely to have severe illness resulting in hospitalization or death compared to the unvaccinated who recovered from it.

Washington Post article – A compromise on the military covid vaccine mandate

CDC report – COVID-19 Cases and Hospitalizations by COVID-19 Vaccination Status and Previous COVID-19 Diagnosis

DJ...did vaccines only buy time ? 








SARS-CoV-2 variant update for the United States: Extremely rapid growth of the new XBB.1.5 lineage during early December to 10% frequency nationally, 25% in New York state. Growth advantage vs BQ.* of 26% per day - the highest I've ever seen.

-








What variant has the highest growth advantage of all in the mix right now https://cov-spectrum.org/collections/24 XBB.1.5 (based on a large number of sequences)

-

Three years and counting... "Waiting for the lightbulb moment when governments realise clean air is cheaper than airborne illness and all its consequences on health and economy."

DJ...of course western countries/media love to claim China is doing worse...but it may be hard to tell who is doing worse. If you do not test you may not get a realistic perspective...

[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps (other statistics may use other data..calculations) Germany high excess deaths 7-10% above "normal". Moderate excess, 4-7% in NL, Portugal, Spain, Italy, France, Switzerland...UK would have "low excess" 2-4% above norm...(or playing with statistics...). 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table even less reliable...[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-china-joins-the-united-states,-united-kingdom,-canada-and-india-in-underreporting-covid-19-infections,-hospitalizations-and-deaths[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-china-joins-the-united-states,-united-kingdom,-canada-and-india-in-underreporting-covid-19-infections,-hospitalizations-and-deaths 

DJ-There is no international definition for "CoViD case", CoViD-death or long-CoViD...there may be a WHO definition but countries go for their own definition...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/china-covid-19-news-china%E2%80%99s-covid-19-crisis-turning-catastrophic,-world-should-help-or-else-things-could-backfire-globally[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/china-covid-19-news-china%E2%80%99s-covid-19-crisis-turning-catastrophic,-world-should-help-or-else-things-could-backfire-globally ;Coming month China could see 124 million CoViD cases, 2,7 million Chinese in need of ICU...(link to [url]https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282198.shtml[/url] or https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282198.shtml ;Zhang also noted that compared with other countries, medical resources across China are distributed unevenly, with huge gaps between urban areas and rural areas. The US has 34.7 ICU beds per 100,000 people, and Germany came second, with 29.2 ICU beds per 100,000 people, media reported.

At present, the total number of ICU beds in China has reached 138,100, close to the level of 10 beds for every 100,000 people, latest data provided by the NHC on December 9 showed. 

The total number of registered physicians in ICUs stands at 80,500 and more than 106,000 can be "converted" into physicians working in ICUs. The number of nurses in ICUs is 220,000, and 177,700 nurses can be converted to work in ICUs. 

China is expected to record more than 124 million COVID-19 cases with symptoms and 2.7 million are in need of ICUs, the experts team led by Yu Hongjie from the School of Public Health, Fudan University predicted, based on the vaccination rate of the country in March 2022, when some 124 million people, about 80 percent of the total population, were fully vaccinated. 

The prediction showed the demand for ICU beds would reach 1 million at most, over 15 times the current capacity. 

But some other calculations are a lot more optimistic. Yixuejie, a leading platform for medical insights and information in China, quoted an anonymous expert as saying that cases that require ICU beds and general inpatient beds accounted for about 0.1 percent and 10 percent of the total number of infections, respectively.

Leading Chinese epidemiologists are optimistic that the epidemic situation will improve by spring next year and will enter a normal status after the epidemic peaks in January and February.

DJ...124 million cases in China-out of over 1400 million...The UK may have -at present-over 3,225,000 cases [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data on a population of just over 68 million...The NHS -UK health-may be beyond breaking point...








U.S. COVID update: XBB variant becomes dominant in the Northeast - New cases: 23,793 - Average: 71,415 (+237) - States reporting: 12/50 - In hospital: 40,669 (-445) - In ICU: 4,861 (+65) - New deaths: 98 - Average: 404 (-33)

and the US may be doing not that much better...

DJ-So it may depend on how ill people get from lots of diseases co-spreading...No cases of "flu-rona" making the news...no doubt there must be millions of them by now with flu and CoViD both reported in many countries allready at epidemic level...(and christmas, new year mass spread events...people stuck in winter weather in the US/Canada, Japan...). 








Replying to 
Long story short, CFR doubled compared to the last wave (three months ago), while variants are roughly the same. (h/t Dr. Ryohei Seto)

DJ Case Fatality Ratio...in China ? 

Eric Feigl-Ding

@DrEricDing
·
Overflowing hospital morgues—Fever meds shortage, oxygen tanks EMPTY, πŸ₯ overwhelmed, blood shortage, death tolls soaring among elderly ==>lots of body bags—even at a top Beijing hospital too. Worsening #COVID19 yet to come. But still 0 official deaths.

DJ, again China may be in crisis...but EuroMoMo may indicate other countries could be close to crisis as well...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 24 2022 at 10:47pm

DJ, 

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AH3AFYVn3T8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AH3AFYVn3T8 ;

Moderna building M-RNA vaccine factories in UK, Canada, Australia with UK already signing up for a 10 year contract, Canada a 7 year contract for vaccines that still have to show they do something...Richie Sunak (UK-PM) linked to a Cayman Island 500 million US$ investmentfund investing in Moderna....

China estimated R0 may be somewere between 18 and 20...The coming months mat see close to 300,000 people dying from CoViD in China...however with a population of over 1,4 billion lifting Zero-CoViD restrictions - going for some sort of "group immunity idea" is the Chinese strategy ? 

-DJ-Again https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data UK may have over 265,000 new cases december 23, 3,225,000+ active cases on a population of 68 million...

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/blog/covid-new-top-10-covid-symptoms[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/blog/covid-new-top-10-covid-symptoms (UK-december 13...other countries, timing may see some differences);

ZOE is still tracking COVID-19 in the United Kingdom, thanks to the thousands of contributors who continue to log their symptoms in the ZOE Health Study app. 

The most common symptoms of COVID-19

Since the start of the pandemic, ZOE has continually reported the most common COVID symptoms and how they’ve changed over time.

These symptoms have changed for a few reasons, including the introduction of vaccines and the emergence of new variants.

Like every virus, the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus that causes COVID-19 is constantly evolving, in terms of its ability to spread and the symptoms it causes.

According to the latest data from the ZOE Health Study — from the 30 days before December 5th, 2022 — the top symptoms reported by contributors with positive COVID tests are:

  1. a sore throat

  2. a runny nose

  3. a blocked nose

  4. sneezing

  5. a cough without phlegm

  6. a headache

  7. a cough with phlegm

  8. a hoarse voice

  9. muscle aches and pains

  10. an altered sense of smell

We used to report the top 5 symptoms. But over time, we've seen that these change frequently. So, we're now reporting the top 10 symptoms, which remain more stable.


The order of these symptoms is based on contributor reports in the app and doesn’t take into account which variant caused the infection or any demographic information.

What about a fever and loss of taste and smell?

The previous “traditional” symptoms, such as loss of smell (anosmia), shortness of breath, and a fever, are much less common these days.

In the list of common symptoms, anosmia ranks 14th, and shortness of breath ranks 16th. Anosmia used to be a key indicator of COVID-19, but only about 16% of people with the illness now experience it.

What about the rest of the symptoms?

ZOE was among the first to show that there’s a huge range of COVID-19 symptoms.

If you’re wondering whether a symptom you have might be from COVID-19, check out our symptom series blog for more information about each symptom.

What should I do if I have any symptoms?

If your throat starts to feel sore, you’re starting to sneeze more often, or you’re newly sick with any other symptom linked to COVID-19, the best idea is to rest at home and take a test.

This is particularly important if you live or work with people who have a greater risk from the disease.

Sneezing is a key way that viruses spread. Try to cover all coughs and sneezes with a tissue or the inside of your elbow to minimize the spread of droplets. And avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth until you’ve washed your hands.


Whether you’ve had the COVID-19 vaccine or not, it’s important to be careful to protect your health and the health of those around you — in your family, workplace, and community.

Stay safe and keep logging.


DJ, Dr.J.C. reports China has some people reporting increase of apetite for food as a symptom....Since CoViD can do damage all over the body lots of symptoms could be CoViD related...

Bad news healthcare is out of capacity-by now in lots of places...

-Good news is masks may prevent most infections....[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/vaccine/vaccine-injured/censored-by-youtube-anecdotals-movie-explores-covid-19-vaccine-injuries/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/vaccine/vaccine-injured/censored-by-youtube-anecdotals-movie-explores-covid-19-vaccine-injuries/ DJ-I again am NOT an expert...in most cases CoViD vaccines may do little/no harm...however ! If they do harm it needs to be taken serious !

People are willing to accept vaccines expecting care if things go wrong after recieving those vaccines...DJ-Some people may develop serious healthissues after vaccination but NOT due to the vaccination...There will be basic statistics for that...but claims "pandemic of unvaccinated" knowing vaccines at best may only limit disease are damaging. 

DJ-My non-expert, non-science view; Non Pharma Interventions may cost less and work better. Immunity evasion of CoViD-people still getting infected after an earlier infection or vaccinations (most of the protection running out after 4 (older people) to 6 (younger ones...) months...) is becoming a major problem...

-Worst case scenario for the CoViD pandemic could be like the 14th century plague in Europe or Europeans invading the America's resulting in over 90% of the "Indians" dying...

DJ-Also in Roman (a.o.) times pandemics did do that much damage it "almost ended civilization"....For that matter the "1918 Spanish Flu" "only" killing 2 to 5% of the global population (India, Java hit very hard...millions died) may give the wrong perspective...

"We" keep dealing with CoViD as if it is some sort of flu...it is NOT ! Flu is "self limiting via group-immunity" infection gives protection...CoViD keeps reinfecting, coinfecting....with -in fact very likely-by now over 1200 (maybe thousends ????) of subvariants of CoViD spreading...increase of spread in non-human hosts etc. 

End of part 3

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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part 4, 

Some background; The Spanish Flu did get "that big" because of world war one....CoViD-19 did get this big by putting profits over public health....

"Never waste a good crisis" made this pandemic-like climate collapse-another for profit oppertunity...And of course "profit" can be in money, Moderna, Pfizer or in influence like Chinese, Russian, Cuban/Iranian vaccines...or both like the vaccines (etc.) from India....

NAto, after NApoleon, NAzi's, did think moving east during a pandemic was a good plan. Russia disagreed...so "now we face Russian agression"...while it is NATO breaking earlier agreements-1991 of "not one inch" moving east....

Some western media again claim China is (again) hiding info...Lifting Zero CoViD policies will result in new variants...with those media/politics-for-sale also claiming Zero CoViD is against "freedom" (eventough they were pushing for mandatory vaccinations a.o. in the US...In China testing was mandatory for lots of things, vaccines never were...)...

-Oil/gas-energy is needed for pharma production...the west is not only facing a healthcare capacity crisis (US 19 million Long CoViD cases ? Others put that number at 30 million for the US...) it soon also may run out of medication....

Of course if "profit" is the only goal in neo-liberal "thinking" shortage of medication, energy....more wars means more profits (for a very small group)....

-Wars;

Poland has 200,000 soldiers on its eastern borders, Romania is involved in Moldova...Both Poland and Romania have "thousends of volunteers" fighting in Ukraine...Russia is trying to "break" Ukraine in Eastern Ukraine...Some estimates put Ukraine military losses at over 1,000 per day....

The "west" in fact is very divided; US, UK may be hardline but may want to limit the war to Ukraine (and Syria, Iraq....)...Poland, Romania may decide Russia beating Ukraine is to much...US/UK may agree with Polish/Romanian (NATO trained) armies -with modern weapons-moving into Ukraine...

Russia has "thousends of military" in Belarus....A Polish and/or Romanian intervention may mean Russian forces from Belarus will "stop NATO moving east" ...with possibly even a Polish/Belarus war....

Of course Serbia never accepted NATO creating Kosovo, Montenegro, breaking up Yugoslavia....escalation involving Romania may push Serbia into taking over Kosovo...(with Russian, Chinese help...)

The US is sending aid to Kurdish fighters in Syria, Iraq, Iran....Türkiye may be getting fed up...already has relative good relations with SCO-member Iran...Erdogan very likely will meet Assad of Syria....DJ-Erdogan is now maximizing what he can get out of Sweden, Finland joining NATO....Türkiye can veto further NATO expansion....Sweden is willing to turn over Kurdish refugees from Sweden to Türkiye as a price for NATO membership...Finland, Sweden both may sell weapons to Türkiye....

At a certain point NATO wants to have a Turkish acceptance of Sweden, Finland joining NATO....By that time-if Erdogan wins the Turkish elections (april 2023 I think it was...)-has to decide further on NATO...Till that time NATO will NOT stop Türkiye from actions in Syria, Iraq....even against US/NATO supported Kurds...

-Western sanctions are destroying the west...Russia now is exporting much more oil and gas to China, (via Iran to) India, Türkiye and even Japan....The US is trying to get European companies interested in moving to the US-with lower energy costs....

DJ;

-The EU is getting more and more frustrated over high costs for US LNG/energy....the US now also trying to pull away EU companies may be to much....

-Asia is a booming economy of over 4 billion consumers...India expecting 7% economic growth...Why would EU companies move to the US when it is the Asian markets that offer the best perspectives ? 

-China, India, Indonesia, Türkiye etc. would like to keep doing bussinesses with Europe (maybe even some in Euro's)....the basic conflict is with the US trying to dominate the world....

So "the west" can expect "economic hard times" in 2023...on top of climate, health crises, wars....

My impression;

The west could face social collapse in 2023....logistics breaking down means food problems mainly in major urban area's....There is already a housing/refugee crisis....only getting worse...

If incomes do decrease (inflation, spending cuts etc) people may stop paying for housing...the police may no longer have the capacity to deal with such a massive problem...

People will not accept more Non Pharma rules (lockdowns, mandatory masks) from politics that made such a mess of such a lot of things....keeping basic things (energy, some logistics, healthcare) going will become a major job soon...escalating more wars only worsening the already many crises (more refugees, more healthcare demand will health care capacity is breaking up...)

So...unless we get better leaders in the west (not tax frauds like trump, sunak etc) the 0,1% get richer from exploiting crisis they-in fact-created....while the rest-99,9%-may pay the price....

I expect christmas 2023 may see "a different world".....[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/average-global-optimism-plunges-2023[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/average-global-optimism-plunges-2023  and [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/eastern-us-power-grid-declares-emergency-power-outages-top-one-million-flight-disruptions[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/eastern-us-power-grid-declares-emergency-power-outages-top-one-million-flight-disruptions 

In 2022 we did go over the 8 billion humans on this planet...some warn that number soon may start decreasing because of the many crises...

DJ...nuclear war ? I do think the "0,1%" elite in the west may push for nuclear war to "save themselves" from a very angry 99,9%....Of course nuclear war could kill billions of people in just a few hours...."we have the technology"....it very likely will be the end of most live on this planet....[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox are civilizations at the end self destructive ?

End of part 4...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2022 at 12:33am

part 5, 

Why NATO had to expand east during the-then-worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu ????

NATO did break agreements made when Germany reunited of "not moving one inch" east....Russia did make it very clear it would NOT allow NATO expanding into Ukraine, Georgia...still NATO...like NApoleon, NAzi's had to move east....

The US is now as good as at war with Russia, Iran, Syria, North Korea....China, India, the Arab world, Türkiye all moving towards confrontation with the US....Western Europe frustrated by high US energy prices-the US trying to "interest" EU companies to move to the US....Euro-inflation...

By now the present pandemic mix may become (much) worse then the Spanish Flu of 1917-1923 (one may claim a peak in 1918-19 but major pandemics last years...). I do not see "flu-rona" getting a lot of attention...very likely because we simply stopped most testing and sequencing...so "persons are ill"...could be anything...


And of course the impacts of a conscious erosion of state capacity extend well beyond health. Real wages are below where they were 18 years ago. There has not been a single year since austerity began when the average wage has matched the peak under the last Labour government.

DJ, of course behind these crises is a major political crisis with "politics" being run by lobbyists...out of contact with most of the people...








Holland: Minister Kuipers speak the truth to the citizen! Record excess mortality last week: 1,227† (+35 %) . Entire Pandemic: 96,800† RIP. Infections shoot to record highs β¬‡οΈ

DJ...I do not know where these NL statistics came from. However 0,5% of the population of NL dying in the entire pandemic may mean "excess deaths"....(If in a country all people would get 100 y/o every year 1% would die...). The US has 3,333 CoViD deaths per million = 0,3333% of its population so far-official death certificate-died from CoViD...NL has 1,334 deaths of CoViD per million...but kept deaths in care centers from CoViD out of the statistics....[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table 

-

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-researchers-concerned-about-new-ba-5-2-1-with-mutations-in-the-orf9b-in-japan-may-be-driving-disease-severity-and-deaths[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-researchers-concerned-about-new-ba-5-2-1-with-mutations-in-the-orf9b-in-japan-may-be-driving-disease-severity-and-deaths Japan [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/ seems to be moving into the worst part of the pandemic so far both for cases as deaths....TMN article lots of links-also on variants/mutations...

Those variants may also be doing a lot of damage in China [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-china-bans-all-private-companies-and-also-researchers-from-genomic-sequencing-of-new-sars-cov-2-variants[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-china-bans-all-private-companies-and-also-researchers-from-genomic-sequencing-of-new-sars-cov-2-variants ....

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data UK now over 3,3 million active cases-close to 5% of UK population now may have CoViD symptoms....








Swedish Herd Immunity Covid-19 Endemicity is in full operation. Time for a little Xmas statistics. This is the number of people hospitalised for Covid-19, with just under 2000 patients hospitalised Dec 22, already approaching earlier peaks.

So-with very "limited" statistics-lack of testing, weekend/christmas...some indications hint "the pandemic" is getting worse...








🚨Results from a blinded randomized clinical: There was a 42% relative decrease in the incidence of #LongCovid when patients were treated with metformin right after infection.

good news....








The unchecked spread of SARS-CoV-2 through the Chinese population will explosively generate novel variants that follow the evolutionary principle of the “survival of the fittest”, pouring accelerant onto the pandemic. We fly blindfolded into the inferno

-

Dr Satoshi Akima FRACP γ€Žη§‹ι–“θ°γ€

@ToshiAkima
·
The evolutionary pace of SARS-CoV-2 is accelerating. Genetic diversity is a strength, not a weakness, because out of diversity will emerge the winning mutation that will be the hit which gives rise to the true successor of Omicron BA.1. From @TRyanGregory

bad news...DJ-It is incorroct, misleading, worsening the global healthcrisis-to focus/blame China....Most countries dropped testing....M-pox, MERS, flu, RSV, Rhino, CoViD is unchecked around the globe...resulting in a mega mix of all kinds of new diseases co-spreading and killing in high numbers...Christmas/New Year parties "as if there is no pandemic" are another show of "insanity is normal".....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/why-next-decade-will-not-be-previous-40-years[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/why-next-decade-will-not-be-previous-40-years ;

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The mainstream assumption is the status quo will continue on much as before. This isn't just unlikely, it's impossible if total energy produced and consumed declines.

DJ....more people consuming more per person....there are limits...

End of part 5


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2022 at 2:10am

part 6...

Christmas-crazy...[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/global-warming-its-snowing-miami-packers-dolphins-game[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/global-warming-its-snowing-miami-packers-dolphins-gameGlobal warming alarmists who said the Earth would imminently burn this past summer will have trouble explaining this. They might respond by saying, 'it's because of climate change.' Well, we have news for them, the climate has been changing for millions of years. 

 ...climate change/collapse would be more correct terms...Snow in Miami, Texas, Mexico or Israel for that matter fit with science on jetstreams "going wild"...The cold North America will be related even more to the Greenland ice-sheet thenvery limited Arctic ice...From New york to NL, to most of Ukraine the coming 14 days will be much to warm...

but denial is cheap....If people want to show they are stupid-let them....

"Pandemic is over" crazyness will show its price in january....

China [url]https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282544.shtml[/url] or https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202212/1282544.shtml ;

China's National Health Commission (NHC) announced to stop publishing daily COVID-19 case data from Sunday and the duty now hands on to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China's CDC). 

Observers said handing over the epidemic data calculation to a technical organization is a reasonable move to provide professional epidemic figures.

"The NHC will no longer release daily epidemic data from Sunday. China's CDC will release relevant COVID-19 information for study and reference," the NHC said in a brief statement, without specifying the frequency for China's CDC to issue epidemic data. 

Zhao Wei, a professor in the School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, told the People's Daily that the move indicates that it is already unnecessary to release epidemic information every day and the move will also help to shift more resources of related authorities to other key steps like clinical treatment.

DJ...less statistics, more care....In my opinion good statistics are part of care....

It will take days for the CDC to activate the epidemic monitor reporting system and allows the organization to collect and report infection data effectively. As for how frequently will the CDC update the epidemic information, including the COVID-19 tally, the organization will roll out the plan in coming days, the expert said.

The surge of infected friends, colleagues and family members and the long lines at the fever clinics at hospitals across the country are all indications that the Chinese cities are experiencing infection peaks shortly after the 10 new optimized COVID response measures were released.

The new daily tally in East China's Zhejiang, for example, has surpassed one million, local authorities said on Sunday. The local epidemic monitor and community sampling survey predicted the peak caseload in Zhejiang will arrive in advance and enter the high plateau period around the New Year, during which the maximum number of newly positive cases will reach two million per day.

East China's Qingdao on December 23 predicted that the city is in the stage of rapid transmission before a COVID-19 spike and is currently seeing daily new tally between 490,000 and 530,000. The prediction in South China's Dongguan showed the city's infections are increasing at the scale of 250,000 to 300,000 a day, and the number is increasing each day. Provinces such as Anhui and Hunan said the first wave is likely to peak around January.

DJ...in absolute numbers these numbers are very dramatic...however China has a population of over 1,400 million...

-

When one looks at Spanish Flu statistics;

Maximum deaths go to 100 million-about 5% of a global population of 2 billion around 1918. 

At present global population is around 8 billion-so 5% would be 400 million...the official CoViD deaths now are put at still under 7 million...a more realistic number (maybe "pandemic deaths" also including those that died because of the pandemic stopped other care) may run towards 40 million...

Exponential growth of cases will bring more social collapse....so more deaths-with relative less people dying from "CoViD only"....During the Spanish Flu millions of people died in "Britsh"India, the "Dutch East Indies/Indonesia"...but there was no basic administration of births/deaths...a lot of people may have died because of the Spanish Flu-not from that flu...Starvation, other diseases (cholera ?)...a breakdown of logistics, social -regional- collapse....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic_in_India[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic_in_India ; 1918 flu pandemic in India was the outbreak of an unusually deadly influenza pandemic in British India between 1918 and 1920 as a part of the worldwide Spanish flu pandemic.[1][2] Also referred to as the Bombay Influenza or the Bombay Fever in India,[3][4] the pandemic is believed to have killed up to 17–18  million people in the country,[5] the most among all countries.[6][7] David Arnold (2019) estimates at least 12 million dead, about 5% of the population.[8] The decade between 1911 and 1921 was the only census period in which India's population fell, mostly due to devastation of the Spanish flu pandemic.[9][10] The death toll in India's British-ruled districts was 13.88 million.[11]

DJ [url]https://abcnews.go.com/Health/indias-staggering-covid-19-death-toll-million-study/story?id=81897534[/url] or https://abcnews.go.com/Health/indias-staggering-covid-19-death-toll-million-study/story?id=81897534 over a year old claim India CoViD deaths may already be over 6 million by december 2021...

A problem is health care more and more became "planned care".....even an "average number of accidents" may be planable...with a very high survival rate...However pandemics overrun healthcare capacity...

There are reports of -now- China at "peak crematory capacity"....again. We have seen this early 2020 in China, later on in parts of Europe, US, India....No hospital beds available...lack of HCW-ers/staff...

To prepare for that "black scenario's" have been written. Who can get what care...what criteria to use..."years of live saved" may become one of those criteria. Very likely lots of countries will be going for triage...In a worse case scenario NO beds/care for 40+...most of hospital care may be care one would expect to see at the ICU....Some hospitals may be closed due to shortage of staff...with police/military in a defense line around the still functioning hospitals...That is what a pandemic looks like !

The "good" news may be such a healthcare crisis -so far-was limited to weeks...Either you survive, maybe get better or you die....of course combining such a very bad global health disaster with wars is crazy...pushing humanity closer to the end...








Almost no one has antigen tests- scalpers bought them all up,  so no one really knows, but I'd say 80% of my almost entirely urban WeChat follower list is infected, extremely pissed off both that they can't get meds, and that it is most definitely not "like the flu".

-








A lot of people in my WeChat who have stayed entirely at home, not even getting delivery, are furious they still got infected. There's been no education about or mitigation for fecal aerosol transmission. Roof fans for apartment buildings and inexpensive add-on traps can help.

DJ...panic control=media control....[url]https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/12/26/national/covid19-cases-rise-new-year/[/url] or https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/12/26/national/covid19-cases-rise-new-year/ ;

The government has been urging only those who have a higher risk of suffering from severe symptoms — those age 65 and older, those in grade school and younger (typically 12 years old and younger), those who are pregnant and those with an underlying disease — to go to the doctor when they have a fever. Others are asked to use a self-test kit, and then recuperate at home if they test positive for COVID-19.

The policy is part of its effort to prepare for a possible “twindemic” scenario this winter, in which up to 750,000 people per day could be infected with either the coronavirus or the flu, straining the health care system.

Compared with the coronavirus, the flu is still not as prevalent compared with pre-pandemic years, but it is slowly starting to spread. Cases are beginning to rise, with five prefectures — Tokyo, Iwate, Toyama, Aomori and Kumamoto — reporting one case or more per designated clinic, a threshold that indicates the flu is spreading.

In the past, flu cases have reached their peak six to eight weeks after passing that threshold, Kato said.

Experts have warned that the risk of flu infection is higher this year because of reduced immunity in society due to a much lower number of cases during the coronavirus pandemic. As a result of people taking anti-infection measures against COVID-19, such as mask-wearing, hand-washing and restricting their outings, the past two years have seen few flu infections.

masks may offer some protection....

End of part 6


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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