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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Do we have a new variant / mutation emerging?

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Albert View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 21 2020 at 4:16pm

Couldn't help but to notice that the outbreak in the Middle East has no ties to China, with a much higher CFR. A possible new variant and mutation?

In Italy, 1 of 6 cases has died. Has China been withholding info? The new variant?

I would say a possible combo of both. Not claiming slate-wiper here lol, but watch this lab *accident* outbreak from China very closely. Many reports, studies and groups have said not wise to mess with labs due to potential accidents that can happen. Of course not a bio weapon, but just a dumb accident / leak. Many countries feel it's necessary to create a vaccine ahead of time should a bad bug return. That's why I believe China messed with SARS. There were also many controversies surrounding labs messing with bird flu at the risk of accidents.

I really don't get this super-bug.       

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 4:19pm
Also remember, you all can't handle a 2% - 4% CFR pandemic, lol. A category 5 pandemic is a death rate of 2%. Doesn't need to be a slate-wiper. Not sure you all could handle it regardless.    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 5:07pm
The 2% or 2.5% would definitely suck, and scare happens when ones kid/ family member die, or the neighbor across the street is wrapped and carted away..... not so bad when it happens in another country.....and at 2.5% someone you know is going to die.

   The social/economic destruction in a modern society is another thing...that I really worry about.

   And any social unrest stemming from a breakdown in the status quo concerns me as well.

   The world is a different place than it was in 1918....people are different.
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 5:14pm
I know very qualified people calling this a bio weapon.
Chinese infected with low CFR version. Builds herd immunity
Iran infected with high CFR

Just putting it out there

?????
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gdeb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 5:35pm
I suspect the CFR is China is just as high...they just hid everything.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 5:45pm
News coming in that the Iran strain is different.    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 5:50pm
Originally posted by Gdeb Gdeb wrote:

I suspect the CFR is China is just as high...they just hid everything.


No doubt.

Also possible new variant / mutated strain emerging in the Middle (and possibly Europe).

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gdeb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 5:54pm
This thing is really testing my optimism ☹️.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sheep Lady Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 6:01pm
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

Also remember, you all can't handle a 2% - 4% CFR pandemic, lol. A category 5 pandemic is a death rate of 2%. Doesn't need to be a slate-wiper. Not sure you all could handle it regardless.    


Albert, some might; open to suggestions for preps, worst case scenarios, etc. Worth trying.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Flubergasted Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 6:07pm
What Gdeb said. Someone forgot to ring up Iran and tell them to keep the data under their hats. CCP has a phonetree malfunction.

I'm disturbed by wu for many reasons, not least of which is that I work with the elderly. Regular flu seasons with everyone vaccinated are deadly enough in my workplace. Give us a 2-2.5% CFR and disease we cannot be vaccinated for, it makes my heart shudder. Knowing what budget constraints we have, adequate PPE is a pipedream. I also happen to fall into the at risk category, but we don't just stop taking care of people.

I don't consider this anything like a bad cold.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 6:12pm
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

News coming in that the Iran strain is different.    


   Share?
The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 6:16pm
Everyone country is suppressing the numbers. They don't want to be labeled a risk or create undue panic. Everyone blames China for suppression, but every country is doing the exact same thing. We think we are a free people.... wrong we are all slaves to the system.

I know doctors and nurses in Australia aren't allowed to talk about cases in the hospital. Its covered under the public health acts in each state. Patients details are confidential. Also once a virus is labeled a health emergency, Mandatory reporting is a requirement and the feds takeover.


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Albert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 6:24pm
Originally posted by pheasant pheasant wrote:

Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

News coming in that the Iran strain is different.    


   Share?


Hi Ph, not sure about the source, but things seem a little off with it all.

https://mobile.twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1230970188117479425?fbclid=IwAR3B9YK4LUaf84GU2Xan89kAJMIROs3PKUNHYchCjaw86U0DJCK0UcHSC7c
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 7:17pm
None of you are posting news from credible sources. The guy talking new strain in Iran doesn’t have credible info!! Iran has not released gene sequence of their strain!’ That comes from Fauci himself. Sounds to me like the rumor mill is alive and well
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 7:19pm
Minoo Mohraz, an Iranian health ministry official, said the virus “possibly came from Chinese workers who work in Qom and traveled to China.” She did not elaborate. A Chinese company has been building a solar power plant in Qom.

China is pursuing a vigorous program (Belt Road Initiative) and are constructing infrastructure in many poor, developing nations in order to obtain raw materials/resources and build up public good will.  They will have likely spread this far and wide. 

I doubt it is a new variant, coronas don't mutate like influenza (which mutate through reassortment of genetic material from different flu viruses co-infecting the same cell). 

I'll let you know when I am worried.  So far, it is the panic factor that bothers me more than anything.  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 7:22pm
That makes sense many Chinese went home for the New Year Celebrations and all went back to work after.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 10:27pm
Originally posted by Usk Usk wrote:

None of you are posting news from credible sources. The guy talking new strain in Iran doesn’t have credible info!! Iran has not released gene sequence of their strain!’ That comes from Fauci himself. Sounds to me like the rumor mill is alive and well


But haven't you noticed that word gets out on Twitter about something, just from someone leaking info or reporting what they're seeing and then a week later that same something is released in an official report?

I also saw on Twitter this afternoon that the Iran strain seems to have mutated. Give it time and the data will follow. That heavens we do have social media or we'd all be in the dark with WHO as our only source of info.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:46am
Information wars indeed. Remember what Dr House said: "Everyone lies."
Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:47am
A corona virus is RNA

mutates very easily.......

Can go either way..... 

Good/bad 

For us humans


12 Monkeys...............
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:56am
Why do you think it can not re-assort? 

Maybe it has with MERS.....

which was more virulent

The vector being Us humans.....


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:57am
My mind is running away with a conspiracy theory.....now
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:10am
Low path Hi path 

Is no different than 

Cow pox... 

Smallpox..... 

Surely

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:27am
Just  the same as getting a Flu shot.....

I have often thought if I produced a bio weapon

I would protect my friends  the same way......


Sorry lateral thinker going abstract......

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:36am
Considering the Chinese government said  climate change is a "civializational change"

A few years ago............

I keep wondering what that means.....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:44am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:45am
12 Monkeys.......
12 Monkeys...............
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:46am
Reassortment with MERS is possible; not likely, but possible. They are first cousins after all.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:49am
Combine that with 

"Sun Tzu" 

"The Art of War"

Main tenet

"its better to take the state intact"......


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:52am
How's that for a conspiracy theory.......

Lol

Not funny......
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:54pm
Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

How's that for a conspiracy theory.......

Lol

Not funny......


Not funny but gripping. Real food for thought.
You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:39pm
Climate change did not do this some nutty people eating bats and other wild crazy animals I have never heard of did this. The Chinese will blame anything other than their people eating animals that never should be eaten by people and some of it is RAW!!!!

So please no Climate Change doing this theory... it does not fit!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rjw Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:05pm
China went through a revolution when the communist party took control, one of the greatest famines took hold. Millions starved, so the people ate anything. To survive. It became cultural. To this day.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:12pm
Yes I read The Good Earth and my husband went to Guangdong China no birds, no insects. Why his Chinese host told him because they ate everything in famine over hundreds of years.
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