| PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL |
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| Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
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 Posted: June 22 2006 at 12:12pm |
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My own preference would be to run it over many days, with posted sim dates on the "injects." That way we can get a lot of ideas in response to each inject, and one could afford to miss a day. We still have to allow time to continue tracking the real thing!
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 12:15pm |
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Here's the Harvard Tabletop Exercise (Scenario):
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pheasant
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Joined: May 20 2006 Location: Florida Status: Offline Points: 9851 |
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 12:21pm |
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so we would treat this forum as our onley source of info ?? (like albert sets the scenario info and timelines) or do we add "news "........?
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 12:25pm |
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Wow this sounds good. I’d love to have some simulation exercises to see where we are lacking in our preparation etc.
To get back to the original questions of what we would do when we hear a pandemic started… I also think that it doesn’t start everywhere right away. Like Dlugose said, maybe a case and clusters in NYC or where ever, and from there it goes everywhere else. Or maybe when we hear about widespread outbreaks in the Far East while air travel is still allowed, this will give us a clue something’s going to happen soon. I think an official announcement will come much later. So I think I will start doing my last minute shopping then, before an official announcement probably, though it’s hard to tell, it’s all speculative. First (I haven’t seen that mentioned yet), I would get some of my masks and protective gear out and do my last minute shopping with those (or pick the kids up with those and have some for them..) Who knows, someone infected happens to be shopping or around at the same time, but doesn’t show symptoms yet. Maybe not full-fledged coverall etc. (people will follow me home, thinking “she must be prepared well…”), but definitely masks and hand sanitizers, and hope that my good hygiene habits have kicked in (like not touching my face, eyes etc..  )
I divided my shopping in two groups. Groceries I will get first are the things I think everyone will go for and that might run out quickly, like gas for the car, fresh fruits and veggies, milk, (more) batteries, (more) diapers etc. Then I will go and get the things I still need that only people who have prepped already will need, or things you wouldn’t think of right away, or the majority of people wouldn’t want to spend their money on these, just essential things. These things for me are an extra gasket for my distiller, more contact lens fluid, extra rolls for my Foodsaver, Miracle Grow for the garden, spare lightbulbs for Coleman’s lanterns, some entertainment things etc. Ofcourse I try to stock up as much of these things as I can already, but due to available money, space limitations, and priority, I have to spread it out, and may still need to get them at that time. So far my shopping (lest this post gets so long everyone will just skip over it..) 
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pheasant
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 12:45pm |
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good thoughts ,and prepping....and in fluwikki there is a map in the 1918 pandemic area with the incremental flu spread accross america with time line .....we could use that as a templet...i would post it but i dont know how to and we could spead it up some
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Albert
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 12:53pm |
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This will have nothing to do with Wiki.
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Albert
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 12:54pm |
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Rjay has a good idea. We will probably have to create a separate forum (here on AFT) for the simulation. Within the forum we could have 2 or 3 industries that fall under DAY 1. For example, the healthcare workers such as doctors and nurses would have their own scenario. Healthcare simulation room: Example Scenario: DAY THREE: The hospital is over crowded and 20% of the nursing staff is too scared to attend their jobs. The emergency room is completely overwhelmed and fellow nurses are beginning to panic. You know the virus is currently circulating throughout the hospital. The longer you stay at work, the greater the chance of infecting yourself, and carrying it home to the family. You hear that a huge number of nurses are about ready to walk off their jobs. The hospital has no Tamiflu available for the staff to use as a preventive use. The tension is growing.... What do you do? Single mother scenario: DAY THREE The school calls and announces that they are closing the school to control an outbreak and you hear that several children in the school aren't feeling well. What do you do?
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pheasant
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 1:02pm |
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when i was younger..lol soo long ago we played d&d..the dm needed to have a good imagination....to keep us on our toes...this should be interesting..... |
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 1:08pm |
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At first I thought that single mother scenario was rather straightforward but I see it's not as her child could be infected and could infect the rest of the family.
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Evergreen
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 1:15pm |
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Albert & all: I'm in for 6pm PST whatever days you set. As far as the things needed to buy but not necessarily thought of, I did post a list on the "white" site/Washington state forum for any assistance it might lend to this project. Will await further details from you all and thanks. D
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235365 - Energy follows thought. As you think, so you are.
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pheasant
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 1:33pm |
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wow Irene.......sent chills down my spine .......i would have to take care of my son,no matter what,...probebly quarentine me and him leave my wife and other ones alone....no contact ...so i have to consider a clean room with access outside ,cant use the rest of the house,set up a pass thru to us for food and water....i cant imagine that scenario with a single mom.... more planning ,and emotional prepping....
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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roxy
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 3:29pm |
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hi to all, remember the radio broadcast of the War of the worlds, the panic it caused ,because people tuneing in later didn't hear the fact that it was a show, may i suggest a disclaimer, or warning , that this is a drill,only a drill. I'll jump in when i can, but i have to work good luck ,,,roxy
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bellabecky
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 3:37pm |
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I have a room off the basement in case anyone gets sick. I think I would hurry and set it up, just in case. Also, get the RV back to the house (put it in back with camoflauge cover), fill it with water, and get it ready for any family that might show up. It is going to be our "temporary quarantine area". Two weeks minimum, first come first served. Have minimal food, water and supplies in there...hope anyone that comes empties their cupboards and brings all they can with them. But enough for 4-6 to live for 2 weeks. Hide preps. I have this cool area in my basement laundry room, under the stairs, with a shelf that perfectly covers the door. Great place for hiding stuff. Geez..so much more to do! Thanks for the poke in the ass! I didn't realize I'm getting complacent with practical planning..got so consumed with stocking up! |
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bellabecky
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 3:50pm |
Thank God. And thanks to everyone here. So many great ideas, help & suggestions... some that I'm sure I (and my family) wouldn't have made it two-weeks in isolation without. Albert, and everyone who helps him...this is really a gift you're giving here. BRAVO! 
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 4:11pm |
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Let's try to get some people for the scenario representing some groups they would work with or know a lot about in real life. Of course you will respond as someone slightly different than usual for you. ALbert may tell us an outbreak is happening in LA, and if we have no police or fire dept from Calif, perhaps some police or FD from some other state could be posting messages about what they think they would be doing if they were in Calif.
Esp. valuable to have would be 1 or more from:
doctor in hosp. setting
doctor in other setting
nurse in hosp. setting
nurse in other such as home health setting or nursing home
any public health people?
any local or state gov. people?
principals or teachers
business planners?
Let's keep these separate from other discussions so no one is confused about reality vs. drill, and maybe there would be such a large volume of postings it might pay to have seperate threads for medical people, public safety people, business & utility people, and a more general thread.
The HARVARD scenario suggested is good, not always credible, but certainly a possibillity. Let's all suspend our disbelief about the scenario and mostly discuss what we would do or would be happening if the scenario is really happening as stated.
Perhaps Albert every half hour could make new announcements every 20-30 minutes about the new news in the scenario. Perhaps also he might want to start a new thread on day 3, day 7, etc. so that when people afterwards want to look back and comment on that stage, the responses to the scenario as of that stage could all be together.
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bellabecky
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 4:51pm |
Dlugose - Here's my paranoid, better safe than sorry version of a sick person in NYC. 
If there is a known case in NYC, it would be likely that there are probably unknown cases, that weren't yet symptomatic (still in incubation stage), that got through at other US International Airports (Hubs): Philadelphia, Atlanta, San Francisco, Boston, Tampa, Chicago, NYC, Dallas, Honolulu, Denver, Detroit, Washington(Dulles), Houston, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, NYC/JFK, Newark, Orlando, Baltimore-Washington, Newark, Oakland,Ft. Lauderdale, Jackson, Phoenix, San Diego, Tampa, Washington D.C., La Guardia, St Louis, Memphis, Minneapolis. Once through customs, the passengers make connections and fly off all over the US to the major airports: Charleston, Salt Lake City, Charlotte, Portland, Daytona Beach, Raleigh, Savannah, Hartford, etc). AND we have to consider all the Foriegn Airports those people came from to the get to the US in other countries, and all the airports they passed through (made connection) in those countries. I'm just naming all the airports so we see how rampant it could already be by the time the first case was actually "discovered". Infected people, that are not showing syptoms yet, could travel for days. And make it onto numerous flights, making connections, before they sneezed and were discovered as being sick. Infecting who knows how many along the way. At sickie #1 I think I would go ahead and assume that there were others already in the US that were sick, but maybe didn't know it yet. Paranoia would be thick! If I absolutely had to go out for something I might (masked, of course), last minute stuff. But I think I'd be in the "better safe than sorry" mode, from anxiety and terror! 
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Penham
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 5:34pm |
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I think this whole idea is great! It will make us think of things we haven't thought of. I was working today, apparantly yesterday the electricity went out and shut down their entire computer system when it went off and it was still down today. I had not really thought of the ramifications of something like this (which could happen in a pandemic) they were able to accept deliveries, but not able to receive them into the computer, so stuff was piling up as the deliveries came and they couldn't do anything with them, meaning that it couldn't be moved to the floor to be sold to customers. They do have generators that will run emergency lights, but the electricity had come back on and was fine, it was a computer problem. This could easily happen in a pandemic situation when the electricity goes out, providing they are receiving goods anyway. This is a military facility and they do have their own warehouses in addition to ordering from other sources, so they technically could receive from their own warehouses even if other people weren't delivering. But, it really made me think about the lack of electricity, I know they shut down when the electricity goes out and ask customers to leave the store, as I have been there many times when the electricity has gone out.
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 6:12pm |
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Question#1 I would get down on my face before God and ask for His advice and peace. Then I would put ALL on my isolation gear and finish my last minute preparations, when people see us in this getup THEY WILL PROBABLY GET OUT OF OUR WAY.
Question#2 If I worked for a hospital I would already know if they had enough tamiflu for staff AND family. If they did not have it by the time first case was reported in US I would tell them what they could do with the job. If hospital administrators do not care for the health of their employees, they do not care for the health of their patients. If they are not prepared for me to take care of others, then I will not put myself, my family or other patients in danger because of their stupidity.
Question#3 if school called to pick up my child, I would and then purchase Rx for tamiflu, IF I did not already have it, would isolate entire family for 23 days using masks and hand washings etc., I would not use tamiflu until someone showed symptoms, It will not work if used to early and if we use up our supply, and do not need it, we probably could not obtain anymore.
God bless
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 6:28pm |
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Question#4 If all of family had been isolated for 21 days and I started having sore throat, I would think it was bacterial instead of viral.
God bless
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 6:55pm |
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Hi All,
On the family member sick -- break out your rapid influenza test. Only use Tamiflu if it's positive.
Quick Vue Rapid Influenza A & B tests are available over the internet and most people can do the test without difficulty - just read the instructions.
Save the tamiflu for the real deal!
K.
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Mary J
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Joined: June 22 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 13 |
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 7:20pm |
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Hi
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 7:20pm |
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What if we are running the scenario and the real thing happens.
We should have a way of determining fact from fiction in a graphic way. I would suggest color coding all fiction or changing the font. Or both. Even a small graphic that sets the fiction posts apart, etc. Or maybe its a lousy idea. |
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 7:20pm |
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Hi Mary J
Welcome |
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 7:21pm |
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Hope everything is ok Kr105. Please keep us posted.
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 7:35pm |
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Are we sure this is a drill scenario?
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Mary J
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 7:41pm |
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Whoops...
Hi All..
I'm happy to see this discussion. I'm an avid prepper and lurker since prior to Y2 K. Thanks to those sharing so much so well.
I'm an RN of 26 years...much of which spent in ICU/ Nursing and Information systems management and am now a Home Health nurse for a hospital agency on the Gulf Coast in Alabama. i also have my own private duty nursing service for care management...so I'm very committed to prepping and helping community through this potential threat.
I and my husband have already asked our Mayor and my agency director about Bird Flu preps:
The mayor said he's been told "when not if" and has a plan for our small city. This town can host 200,000+ people over a holiday weekend but we have only about 6000 full time residents.
My agency director was without any plans or directions for plans.
After going through Hurricane Ivan, Dennis, and Katrina, I am definitley better armed for planning bird flu preps.
(One suggestion I have is to have a 55 gallon metal barrel for a "burn barrel".Infectious waste is best burned, and garbage collection will be an issue early on. Buy a safety grate, and plan to dispose of your own trash).
Anyway...I'm debating whether or not to add IV fluids/catheters/and infusion sets to my supplies. This could mean the difference in surviving this flu if you can't access a hospital and need Iv's for meds/dehydration.
Anyway-I think we will see localized, simultaneous outbreaks as the flu gets into the community from heavily travelled tourist sites:
Think Orlando, NY, Las Vegas, LA,etc.
You're fist step is to define the outbreak, then prioritize your last minute preps before being isolated.
I'm looking forward to this exercise!
Mary J
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 7:51pm |
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Drill Section?
Hi Albert,
Can you create a sep. section of the forum for the drill? That way, it's not in latest news etc. and no one will mix up info in the drill for the real deal.
Just a suggestion -- if you don't have the space, that's OK too.
K.
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Char
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 7:52pm |
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I'm looking forward to this too! A few years ago, we had a bad ice storm...Penham you'll probably remember it as it affected almost the entire state...anyway where I live we were without power for 5 days, but we did have running water. The main problem we had was how to stay warm. The first night my sons scavenged wood pallets, then we cut up the wood as it was falling from the trees due to the heavy ice on the limbs. We learned a lot, and I think this type of exercise will help all of us learn a lot more. Awesome idea and can't wait to see how it plays out. |
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MelodyAtHome
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 7:56pm |
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Mary, my brother too is a home healthcare nurse and has foley's, iv's but we are debating what to do for fluids? What are you doing? Where are you getting them from? What is an infusion set? If you have an online site you recommend where to get medical supplies let us know...suture kits just in case? I would hate to have one of the kids split open something and then go to a hospital with a bunch of BF sick people. Between my brother, RN my mom who survived the Spanish civil war through very terrible times, my 2 other siblings who are Physical therapists...one of us should be able to figure out how to sew someone up/ |
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Melody
Emergency Preparedness 911 http://emergencypreparedness911.blogspot.com/ |
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 7:57pm |
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Mary J
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 8:14pm |
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hi Melody..
I'm planning to have D5 LR (5% dextrose with lactated Ringers) and plain D5 1/2 Normal Saline fluids. The IV's (if okayed by my family doctor) would be best for replacing sugar and electrolytes if patient is dehydrated from fluid loss, inabilty to eat, high fever, etc. These will be good for general patients. Diabtetics would need plain normal saline or a reduced rate of dextrose water.
If ARDS/ pulmonary edema develops, you want enough fluids for support, but not enough to overload system.
Anyway-infusion sets are the tubings that connect IV fluid bags to IV catheters in the vien. You need fresh tubing every 3 days...and need enough catheters and fluids to give about 1-2 weeks worth of fluids for really sick folks. I'm thinking at least 1000 mls every 12 hours (80 mls/hr or about 20-25 gtts/minute.)
I've found a good supply source in Moore Medical and you can also web search IV supplies on line to get what you need. The bags of fluids are about $3-5 each and IV sets, & catheters are also pretty cheap.
Hope this helps!
Mary J
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Penham
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 8:30pm |
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Hi Char, yes, I remember that bad ice storm. We did not lose electricity for any length of time, just flashes off and on, so we were lucky. I do remember not being able to leave the house for several days, lots of trees and limbs down. The grocery stores were wiped out of supplies right before hand also, you know OK, any time there is the slightest chance of ice/snow everyone runs to the grocery store and acts like they will never be able to buy groceries again, LOL.
I think this excercise is going to be great! One thing I have changed (since last month) is I am NOT going to make a last minute grocery run like I previously was. I just plan on buying what I need in a timely manner now, maybe buying a little extra of fresh things to have on hand and when it's gone, it's gone. I am also going to keep my gas tank topped off, eliminating that last trip to the gas station. Making sure everyone is at home is my priority at this point. Funny, how when things get closer how you change your mind about certain things. |
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Penham
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 8:35pm |
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Anybody game for "pretending there is no electricity or water" during the drill? Cooking with preps by solar or grilling, etc? Using stored water (only stuff that can be replaced, not store bought water, wouldn't want to waste preps) to see how much it would take to do dishes, drinking, cleaning, etc? No tv? Of course we would be able to use the computer to check the forum and see how things are going and to report how we are doing.
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MelodyAtHome
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 8:59pm |
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Mary, thank you for that information. I appreciate it.
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Melody
Emergency Preparedness 911 http://emergencypreparedness911.blogspot.com/ |
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Mississipp Mama
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 9:06pm |
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Hi guys , I talked to a friend of mine last night, She's and RN in a large hospital in Chicago. She said the doctors there are very relaxed about the BF, they don't seem to be concerned at all. She said most of the nurses are very concerned. She said don't expect any great announcement about the bird flu hitting the US. She said when you hear it you will probably hear it when they interrupt a program with Breaking News. According to her she is attending to 3 paients with mad cow disease. This information has not been on the news. Anyway for what it's worth just thought i would pass this info to the group. She promised to keep me informed if she heard anything important.
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KOMET163
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 9:58pm |
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Albert, thanks for your help with the drill idea.
This will force us to fix any gaps in our preps.
Now for the scenerios.
1. bolt out of the blue : WHO goes from three to 5 or 6 in one day. Panic causes prices to rise, and causes a massive news spin and blackout. rioting occurs in major cities and food supplies drop to nothing.
2. Creeping spread : chinese authorites cover up outbreaks by killing infected birds. Containmen fails due to bird smuggling. 2- 4 days of warning. General public does not get information.
3. Single in Stockton : Single parent with two kids and cat. unprepared for the bird flu has 24 hours to prep with 1,000 dollars. What should they do.
4. Large family scenerio : Family with 8 immediate members and 3 extened family members in a rural Nebraska homestead. Family has 45 days of supplies and has 3 days to prepare for TSHTF and TEOWAWKI . Family has 10,000 in cash and one member is a nurse.
5. Hunkered down in Hometown : Couple with 3 cats and significant disabilites has 120 days of preps and 1500 dollars in cash. couple has weapons and tamiflu. Power goes out on day 10.
These scenerios are realistic and based on personal experiences
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Christy
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Posted: June 22 2006 at 10:31pm |
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Komet163, alter scenario #3 to - Single parent with teen son & adult daughter with an infant and a 2yr old, 3 dogs, 2 brds, 2 aquariums and a cat, move them half an hour south, and that's me
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Albert
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Posted: June 23 2006 at 12:10am |
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wow. A lot of good ideas.
One of the obstacles that we're facing, and I believe pheasant already mentioned it, is the emotional stress..... or Fear. Fear is what will dictate a lot of our actions. I'm not sure if the human soul is even cut out for this type of potential fear and loss. We may have to work on our emotional preps during this exercise, so I might appear to come across a little cold hearted at times.
I agree that we should use a separate forum. We may have to use the scrolling banner for the news updates to simulate what you might see on the news day 4, day 5, etc.... Or like Dan suggested by having frequent news updates to create additional scenarios.
Need to give it some thought.
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bellabecky
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Posted: June 23 2006 at 1:08am |
A person I know works for a "Health Care Giant", hospitals, clinics, pharmacies, transplant facilities, etc. And is an important part of their operations. This persons sister is a Health Care Provider with the same Organization. So far there is not a plan. Supposedly this Org. is working closely with the CDC for the detection of H2H transmission. I don't know...either it should be comforting or even more scary?? Personally I think one of them would be being told to start gearing up if it was close or imminent. But it seems to be business as usual. Who knows? |
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marks6555
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Posted: June 23 2006 at 1:13am |
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bump
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When the going gets weird, the weird turns pro. -HST
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Hand-washer
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Joined: April 25 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 66 |
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Posted: June 23 2006 at 2:42am |
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Mini DRILL here last night when power went off around 8 p.m. Our late dinner was cooking, weather channel on TV, and of course computer on.
The better half fired up the grill and we got through dinner by candlelight (not so romantic this time!), but I refused to open the 'frig for any dinner needs since we had no idea how long we'd be without power. Outages like this in our area may last a few minutes or an hour or so, but this time we didn't see power restored until 4:30 a.m. Both of us lay awake thinking about the 'frig foods, freezer, timers everywhere, and a dozen other electrically powered things we take for granted. As morning neared we wondered if the hot water heater, wrapped with insulation, would have enough warm water for our showers. When power was restored, I learned that I don't clean up as carefully by candlelight as I do with the real lights on. I just couldn't SEE those crumbs by candlelight or flashlight. Keeping things cleaned up is important to me, so if this happens again I need to be better prepared. LOTS to consider -- and that was only an eight hour drill. Thankfully, I am now about ready to have a coffa-cuppy and consider serious changes we may need to make. |
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KOMET163
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Joined: January 15 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 278 |
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Posted: June 23 2006 at 5:26am |
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Albert,
The most important thing about a drill is to realize that fear is an tool to use for us. Fear may motivate the people to prepare and to deal with the flu in an inteligent way. My personal experiences lead me to believe short of a nuclear war or a meteor hit on hte earth, that humanity will survive and it will flourish. We have a few things that night negatively impact us,but Albert we have survived worse events than the bird flu.
The black Death 1346 -1353, Between 1/3 and 1/2 of europeans die.
Cholera epidemics hit the USA, 1832 - 1868. Thousands die
Yellow Jack strikes the easrern half of the uSA, 1877-78. Memphis iis turned into a ghost town as people flee the Yellow fever.
I could go on and on, albert. The key issue is the 21st century mentalit which seems to defy historical reality. Simply put, WE can't get in to our minds the prospect of death on a massive scale. WE , don't get it and have no historical perspective on the massive waves of coffins and pyres facing us. I know that we are going thru some really tough times, Albert, but take heart in the fact that centuries ago we were faqced with death on a massive scale, we as a species liived. Look at AIDS for example. In some african nations the infection rate is 30 percent. We need to understand the risks and deal with them the best way that we know how.
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Posted: June 23 2006 at 7:21am |
Thanks for sharing this MM. I think it might be the same with the first Bird Flu cases. The ramifications are just so enormous. Like Penham I might not want to do that last minute shopping list, but in reality I think I just won't be as prepared when the time comes, I'll still have too. |
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Albert
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Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Posted: June 23 2006 at 8:15am |
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Komet, our group will do fine because we know what we're doing. I have 3 phone lines in my house. I'm going to install a couple of additional inactive lines, which I can activate later. Should things begin, if anyone starts to panic, then we can also talk on the phone. Since I don't require sleep, we can all talk 24/7. I didn't want to scare anyone with fear and loss. The pandemic mortality rate for our members will be 0.0. We're experts... The fear I'm talking about will affect everybody else.
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Posted: June 23 2006 at 8:30am |
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I think that even public officials are counting on the web for early warning signs. Google trends shows that Washingon D.C. is doing the second most google searches on the web of the word "flu": www.google.com/trends?q=flu During the Indonesian family cluster concern, Washington D.C. really outdistanced other U.S. cities in that particular keyword. Now I notice it's not so pronounced. I think everyone realizes that the media can't be counted on to pubicly reveal flu cases on a timely basis, particularly if they are being censored or pressured by their governments. There may also be cases which go undetected or are not reported. Web chatter may be the only way to hear about them. |
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Albert wrote: