Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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I'm not even sure that we will see the level of violence that people are expecting. After Katrina, the gangs and violence increased. With a pandemic, the same type of people will be too busy protecting themselves, and caring for their families. Nobody will be able to escape it. Think about your neighbors and their kids. Let's say they are not going to steal your supplies, but they might beg for a little of your help. When you say no, they will most likely just walk away. It will be at that point that you will regret that you didn't buy anything extra for people. You may even give from your own supplies, as hard as that is to imagine right now.
I am going to buy some extra rice and some basics to have on hand for the neighbors. You can buy a 25 lb bag of rice at Costco for $5.00.
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This might seem like a silly question, but from what I understand, if the bird flu kills the people with the best immune systems (-correct me if I'm wrong on that), then how would it affect one's immune system, who has BF, when they take a bunch of vitamins (like high doses of C) and herbals which may inhance the immune sysytem. Will that help? Or make it worse? -Sorry if thats a lame question...
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I am surprised the press has not heard of this, or maybe at this stage there is some privacy issue if they are not sure of diagnosis. If her hospital has diagnosed her with variant Creutzfeldt Jakob disease, the human disease you might get if you eat meat from a "mad cow", then pretty soon public health authorities and CDC will start investigating. This year mad cow disease became a problem for sure in this country with cattle, I don't know if it is completely under control. She could have a very similar disease from other causes. The CDC and USDA publish a lot of information - some links at the end of this, but to quote a 2002 investigation, it is not easy to come to the conclusion of what has happened:
"The Florida Department of Health and the CDC are investigating a likely
case of new variant Creutzfeldt Jakob disease (vCJD) in a 22-year-old citizen of the United Kingdom living in Florida. The clinical diagnosis was made at a hospital in the U.K and she has since returned to the U.S. Preliminary analysis of information provided by the U.K. indicates that the patient’s clinical condition and history are consistent with vCJD acquired in the U.K. However, the only way to confirm a diagnosis of vCJD is through study of brain tissue obtained by a brain biopsy or at autopsy." http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/vcjd/
http://www.cdc.gov/od/oc/media/pressrel/r020418.htm http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/bse/news/alabama_cow_031506.htm http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/vcjd/qa.htm#monitoring http://www.aphis.usda.gov/newsroom/content/2006/05/alepi.shtml http://www.aphis.usda.gov/vs/nahps/surveillance/bovine-tb.html |
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I like RJay's idea of running scenario over a few days because we might want to give everyone a couple hours or more to discuss each phase of the scenario.
I think it would be chaotic and frustrating to have people objecting to or altering the news that is annouced. Say the scenario said that 3 people were hospitalized and no other cases were know yet but various contacts were being questioned and so forth, if someone butt in and said no way, there are really 50 suspects in 6 cities... then we all start discussing different scenes. Best to say I THINK that in this scenario there would really be some other cases we havent heard about yet, but based on what we know so far, we should do such and such.
I propose no one except Albert make scenario annoucements, and only people who work in healthcare announce what the hospital or public health people are planning to do in response, only people who work for fire, police, EMT or closely related (assuming we have some) announce what they think the response is, etc. Others can express opinions making it clear like I don't work in this field, but I think the police will not be able to cover looting except near hospital or police stations, etc. These kind of things come up in drills by the pros.
If the scenario does not mention gas shortages, don't confuse everything by saying there is one (unless you are Albert). You could always express your opinion as this would work very differently if half the public tries to evacuate this city and there are long lines at gas stations and then they are out. Maybe Albert would respond with something along that line unless he does not see any way to deviate from his script without rewriting the whole thing.
Remember much of the news of violence in New Orleans turned out to be untrue or exaggerated on later investigation. There were not lots of bodies at the Superdome, etc. Some police did break the law or not show up for work.
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Mississipp Mama
Valued Member Joined: January 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 524 |
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Dlugose, who know's why the information hasn't been released, I'm sure they won't tell the public everything. I wonder how much money would be lossed if they told us everything.
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Evergreen
Admin Group Location: Washington Joined: March 30 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 770 |
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Great Post! I have been using Ringers/infusion sets for my cat for about a year. I usually buy a case at a time from the vet. It occurred to me I could use them for us people for dehydration. I'll be ordering another case this week. Good idea. D |
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235365 - Energy follows thought. As you think, so you are.
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serenity
Valued Member Joined: March 29 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 30 |
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Already have done that and if need be will share.
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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I'maprepper
V.I.P. Member Joined: April 12 2006 Status: Offline Points: 53 |
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dlugose, my good friends father-in law died of CJS 4 years ago. Can't kill the germ. Very bad.
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Be a good Scout. Be prepared- for anything.
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Mary J
Experienced Member Joined: June 22 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 13 |
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Would it be helpful to review the models actually seen in the SARs outbreak and extrapolate them as scenarios for this flu? it was airborne, easily spread ....but not 78% lethal...so it would "showcase" the real response people and healthcare systems will have to new threats.
This would give us some realistic ideas about how fast it would travel, and how much it would really effect the large cities.
Just a thought....SARS was really scary, and it consumed a large amount of resources in Canada and China...
any one remember the details or have good forum sites to re-visit?
Mary J |
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On Sharing Preps:
I have my preps and I've laid in a store of "Giveaways" which were inexpensive but will take care of folks asking for help. They include:
Rice each bag $2/5 lbs
Beans each bag $2 / 2 lbs
Ramen Noodles 10 / $1 or case of 24 for $1.98
Spaghetti bags for $3 / 6 lbs and boxes at $1 for (2) 1lb boxes
Tomato Sauce 5 / $1 -- case of 48 for $9.60
Saltines .75 per large box
Grape Jelly $1 per jar
soup (tomato and chicken noodle) 2 cans / $1
Each week when I do my shopping, I throw a few extra's in the cart for the giveaway pile. What if I were the one who was going hungry? I'd hope someone would give me something to eat.
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Albert, I really do appreciate this idea of a "drill" for the group. While we are discussing the re-actions of various agencies, we should also look at the living conditions of various members. For example: single mother with children living in an apartment in a large city, retired couple living in the country, sub-urban family, hard-core survivalist etc.
Also, I wanted to respectfully disagree with you regarding violence. I've worked with gang-bangers in the past and got to know some of their family members. Post-Katrina will be the norm until they start dying off.
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Evangeline
Valued Member Joined: June 15 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 5 |
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The Avian Flu has met the first 2 conditions of a pandemic with nearly 300 cases of human infection causing illnesses such as fever, cough, sore throat, muscles ache, eye infections, pneumonia and even severe respiratory distress. There is little human resistance to this disease as infected individuals show a mortality rate of greater then 50%. Evangeline Siri, B. Sc. http://www.AvianBirdFluDefense.com/sitemap.htm |
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Evangeline Siri B.Sc
Webster University, Thailand |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Femvet - You may be right. That's why we should run a couple of scenarios to find out. We created some new forums at the bottom of the main page for the test. I was thinking that we could run a scenario for each day and people can post what they would do. Hopefully, we can learn some things from it. If you want to know how the violence might flare up, we could possibly find out, but we would have to take it a step further.
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I really don't know what to drill for. I am staying at my retreat for the present. I don't have electric. Everything is propane, battery operated, or runs off a generator. (well pump and A/C)
I have everything I need for a couple of years. I have been into survival for 25 years, and have bought most everything I thought I might need.
I just need to get here from work, or town if I am there when it breaks.
Hmmmm, maybe leaving a town overwhelmed with panic, breakdown of law and order...................
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Albert: This may sound like a strange suggestion but perhaps we could have something instructional written on what to do from a childs perspective. Children may be left without parents. I am thinking along the lines of something parents can print out and leave with preps for a child to use. I am not sure how to accomplish this. I was thinking of a target age of 10 -16.
Does anyone think this would be helpful for children to have? |
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janetn
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 04 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 333 |
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My biggest fear is that we will all have a heads up way before the general public and act accordingly ie SIP. Then the rest of the world will go on normally for a time [untill the sick and dead start piling up] .
Hence some of us will begin to doubt our course of action in the beginning We will be sitting at home while all appears normal We are going to feel a little silly like nut cases Im afraid This could cause some of us to make deadly mistakes We have to steel ourselves for that posability Especially considering that the official line on the MSM is going to downplay the situation John Q public isnt going to get whats happening untill way too late Doubt is going to be something were going to have to face We are going to be a lonely minority Can this be put into the drill too [how we will handle the MSM and TPTB downplaying the situation] Doubt in our actions could cost us dearly
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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SF- Interesting idea. .... KR105, good job with the extras.
Also, I did not mean to scare anybody with my posts on this thread. Things won't be too bad. People in general have always faced potential crisis with courage. As we mentioned earlier, it might be a mistake not to buy a little extra for our neighbors. My opinion - the soul may be fragile at times, but it’s full of compassion. Our compassion for helping each other in the face of danger will most likely supersede all other emotions, including fear. |
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