Eur-Asian integration

DJ, 

There is a dominant western/US view on wars; "shock & awe" bombing raids...high speed action...in Iraq, Syria resulting in massive civilian deaths and everlasting wars...the Ukraine war-military summary puts Ukraine deaths so far at 100,000+, end of this year may be 200,000- march 2023 could be up to 300,000 indicates Russia is going for another strategy-destroying armies...Still that does not fit the US/west story.... (MS has as a Russian weak spot PMC-Wagner going for six months contracts...they may run out of "Private Military Contractor" fighters...since there are also Donetsk/Luhansk militia, regular Russian Army etc. the PMC-six months-effect however will be limited). 

On Eur-Asian integration that "west" also is going for over estimates of differences between Asian countries-ignoring what unites those countries...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ Of the almost 8 billion people on this planet over 4,6 billion live in Asia...59,5% of "us" are Asian...9,6% of the global population live in Europe, North America is 4,7% of the global population...

Alexander Mercouris [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-gPSrsaR0s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-gPSrsaR0s mentions Pakistan PM Sharif meeting with Putin. Sharif-replacing [url]https://mobile.twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI[/url] or https://mobile.twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI after yet another US coup-via bribes-had good memories on his first visit to Moscow in 1968...how the Soviet Union opened the first Pakistan steel production in Karachi...AM wonders if the US expected the Pakistan elite giving up Asian trade...

[url]https://www.dawn.com/news/1710222[/url] or https://www.dawn.com/news/1710222 ; Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday met world leaders including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran’s Ebrahim Raisi on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

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On the first day of his visit, the premier met President Vladimir Putin on Thursday. The two leaders discussed bilateral ties and exchanged views on regional and international issues.

During the meeting, Putin said that pipeline gas supplies to Pakistan were possible, revealing that necessary infrastructures were already in place, according to state-owned news agency RIA.

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Furthermore, the premier appreciated Russia’s “constructive role” in Afghanistan and reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to supporting all regional and international efforts to stabilize the neighbouring country.

Later, PM Shehbaz met Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi. The two leaders acknowledged moving forward positive trajectory of bilateral relations.

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“The global economic turbulence has necessitated the need for more cooperation among SCO member countries,” he said, adding that the “SCO vision” represented the aspirations of 40 per cent of the world’s population.

“Pakistan reiterates its commitment to ‘Shanghai Spirit’. Mutual respect and trust can be the bedrock of shared development and prosperity,” he said.

“The SCO has great potential to chart a way forward at a time of deeply worrying transformation in geo-political & geo-economic fields,” he concluded.

DJ The Pakistan PM however did NOT meet India PM Modi...however that does not mean there may not be a form of India-Pakistan cooperation a.o. on energy...I expect if Pakistan could make money out of energy transport (pipelines) Russia-China-Pakistan-India and/or Iran-Pakistan-India they are not blind...India is expecting an economic growth of 7,5% this year-in part due to energy imports from Russia...[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-overtakes-uk-become-fifth-biggest-economy[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-overtakes-uk-become-fifth-biggest-economy (based on PPP India may already be #3...). 

Asia is working on its own currencie(s)...however this may be complicated...trade between countries in part now based on countries own currencies (India-Russia part in Rupee-spent by Russia in India buying consumer goods..Another part in Ruble. Türkiye, China also follow that road, strengthening their own currencies...) part sometimes now with the Euro replacing the US$

DJ, [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/escalation-recent-events-suggest-mounting-economic-danger[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/escalation-recent-events-suggest-mounting-economic-danger ;

A common refrain from people who are critical of alternative economists is that we have been predicting crisis for so long that “eventually we will be right.” These are generally people who don’t understand the nature of economic decline – It’s like an avalanche that builds over time, then breaks and quickly escalates as it flows down the mountain. What they don’t grasp is that they are in the middle of an economic collapse RIGHT NOW, and they just can’t see it because they have been acclimated to the presence of the snow and cold.

Economic decline is a process that takes many years, and while you might get an event like the market crash of 1929 or the crash of 2008, these moments of panic are nothing more than the wreckage left behind by the great wave of tumbling ice that everyone should have seen coming far in advance, but they refused.

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At this point, I think if a person can’t see the dangers ahead they are probably a waste of time and space and are destined to be buried in the ice; there’s nothing that can be done for them. Yes, there are some people out there that don’t get exposed to the information and we have to take them into account, but my priority will be people that are awake and aware and try to give them a sense of what point in the collapse process we find ourselves.

In the past month there has been a considerable uptick in economic and geopolitical activity that suggests we are entering a new phase, and not surprisingly it’s all accumulating right before we hit October.

Here are the events that I find most concerning:

The European Energy Crisis

This is an event that I have been predicting since the Russian invasion of Ukraine and now it is upon us. I wrote about it extensively in my recent article ‘Europe Is Facing Energy Disaster And It’s Going To Bleed Over Into The US’ so I won’t rehash all that information here. What I do want to point out is the complete lack of planning on the part of European officials to deal with the threat. It is as if they WANT a full spectrum disaster.

Russia has now completely cut off natural gas supplies to Europe, which represent around 40% of all EU energy resources. Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices spiked by 28% a week ago, on top of already existing inflation. Oil supplies are also in steep decline for Europe and the EU government has pledged to cut what’s left of Russian oil imports by sea at the end of the year. Sadly, they have offered very little in the way of solutions to the supply-side problem.

There has been talk of increasing imports of alternative resources from other nations, but the EU is already buying up around 75% of all liquid natural gas from the US. OPEC oil producers have indicated they will not be attempting to increase production anytime soon (probably because they can’t due to inflation in operation costs). There is NO backup energy resource for Europe; it doesn’t exist right now.

They will try to buy up whatever coal, oil and gas they can find on the market while driving up prices even more for other countries. They will still come up short, which means people are going to freeze this winter.

Best case scenario is that there are mostly mild temps and people barely scrape buy with minimum heating. But EU industry is going to suffer and many manufacturers are going to cut production (which mean more stress on the global supply chain).

Core Inflation Is Still Rising

As I warned last week in my article ‘It’s A Fact That Needs Repeating: The Federal Reserve Is A Suicide Bomber,’ inflation is continuing to rise despite the Fed’s continued interest rate hikes, giving the central bank even more ammunition to justify higher rates into extreme economic weakness.

The latest CPI print showed an increase to 8.3% and was a shock to markets which universally expected a drop. This is the nature of stagflation – Even with falling demand prices continue to climb or remain high for extended periods. The stagflation event of the 1970s lasted for a decade until the Fed jacked rates to 21% and then employment crumbled in the early 1980s.

This doesn’t mean that rates will go to 21% this time; they don’t need to. All it would take is a Federal Funds Rate of around 4% – 5% to crash our current QE addicted system. A 75 bps rate hike is now widely expected at the next Fed meeting this month, with some predicting a 100 bps hike. This would put us close to crash territory for markets and for employment, though I think we still have well into 2023 before unemployment really starts to spike.

Putin’s Meeting With Xi

As I write this, Vladimir Putin is set to meet with China’s Xi Jinping and the nature of the conference is not clear. There are the obvious points of agreement such as China’s continued purchases of Russian oil and other commodities, as well as the ongoing plan to build a pipeline to China by 2025. There is also strategic cooperation which is evident in the recent naval exercises between the two nations around Japan and Taiwan.

The timing of the meeting is concerning to me, because the prime season for a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan is fast approaching (October is the best month for naval movements to avoid typhoons). China would not necessarily need to commit to a ground invasion, either. They could simply cut off all import/export trade from any source other than China and starve Taiwan until they accept unification.

There is also the issue of Ukraine and arms sales. With the amount of propaganda coming from Ukrainian Intelligence and NATO, it’s hard to say what is actually happening, but I suspect Russia is changing strategies and repositioning to deploy missile and artillery bombardment of infrastructure, including power grids and water. This is a tactic that Russia has avoided for months (until this week), which is surprising because one of the first measures usually taken by the US during an invasion is to eliminate most key infrastructure (as we did in Iraq). You would think Russia would have done the same, but perhaps they were saving that scenario for winter when it is harder for Ukraine to cope.

This would make Ukraine essentially unlivable in the coming winter for most of the population. Putin may be seeking to ensure China remains a steady economic partner should geopolitical pressures increase. They may even be making a deal of mutual support: China takes Taiwan while Russia makes Ukraine a resource wasteland and they each support the other economically when NATO counties try to impose sanctions on China. We probably won’t know until October, but the timing of the meeting should raise eyebrows.

If the manure is about to hit the fan in Taiwan along with Ukraine, then diplomatic and economic ties will be severed and western access to China’s manufacturing will be cut. This is a problem for China’s economy, certainly, which may be why they have continued their mass covid lockdowns well after every other government has abandoned them. Could this be practice for civil controls in an impending war environment?

China’s global dominance in imports/exports gives them considerable economic leverage in trade, however. Many nations would not support sanctions against them. Also, their vast holdings of US dollars and Treasuries could be used as a weapon to damage or destroy the dollar’s world reserve status. If China invades Taiwan this year, then all bets are off – The economic decline will move swiftly from that point on.

There are many other trends which factor into the crash environment but the above factors are the most recent and hold the biggest potential for causing a domino effect globally. The question that always arises is “what can we do about it?” Not much in terms of prevention. What we can do, though, is prepare locally to weather the storm. This means stocking necessities before they rise even further in price or become non-existent. Become a producer and learn a valuable skill for survival in a depleted economy Organize with people locally who are on the same page to create security and alternative trade opportunities.

Hopefully, the aware citizenry will rise to the challenge and organization will be extensive, because the worst case scenario would be great masses of completely isolated people all vying against each other rather than working towards mutual security. Even in a slow collapse scenario this is a problem in terms of rising crime; so plan on working with others if you want to avoid inevitable third world conditions.

DJ, Of course we should avoid a collapse-of-the-west scenario ! The "west" is doing this to itself !

-Why further NATO expansionism resulting in the Ukraine war ?

-Why more US weapons to Taiwan ? 

-Why not use the old Iran-deal as a basis for making a new Iran deal ? 

What is wrong with diplomacy ? Does "the west"-US-realy think they can go for regime change in Moscow, Bejing, Tehran and later on New Delhi ? Accepting a multi-polar world would be that much better for the west then this "war against the rest" !

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFAAowWtT6o[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFAAowWtT6o Alexander Mercouris; Putin Says Russia May Soon Upgrade SMO to Counter Terror Operation; Modi Says India Russia Friendship 'Unbreakable'

DJ...several countries now also reviewing their relationship with their former colonizer/exploiter the UK....

Western "puppets" warning from China; [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/chinas-xi-strong-regional-alliance-will-thwart-color-revolutions[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/chinas-xi-strong-regional-alliance-will-thwart-color-revolutions ;

President Xi Jinping called for China's central Asian security partners at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to take common steps block external efforts at destabilizing countries through "color revolutions" - a reference to a series of externally backed revolutions which have rocked Middle East and ex-Soviet satellite countries in recent years.

"We should prevent external forces from instigating a color revolution," Xi said in a Friday speech, offering as part of a potential initiative toward that end to train 2,000 police officers. These officers, he suggested, could be sent through a regional counterterrorism training center which will "strengthen law enforcement capacity building" which would help prevent destabilizing threats from outside.

DJ, Of course making a list of US/western regime change operations would become an endless job...Recent regime changes were against Lula/Rouseff in Brazil-the west rather supported the fascist (he names himself that way) bolsenaro...In Venezuela the west wanted right wing extremist [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3 as their puppet-only supported by a rich elite...Pakistan did see a lot of US suported military leaders...[url]https://mobile.twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI[/url] or https://mobile.twitter.com/ImranKhanPTI was "bribed away" only hus successor may not be willing to drop Pakistan interests (oil, gas, trade) for-more-US weapons and insults...From Kazahkstan to Iran-US supporting MEK, Azeri/Baluchi militants and IS...Syria did see US supporting IS...against Assad...

It can hardly be surprising that the non-western world is "running away" from neo colonial western agression...(with again liz truss-UK-promoting a global NATO to do what ?)...

DJ-Of course countries in BRICS, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa are the "Big Pharma" in production-not in profits....and there is the link to pandemics...a lot of basic medication is outsourced to "countries we kept poor"...we even may "sanction" for doing bussinesses in self interest to "other countries no longer willing to follow western orders"....

The west is in full speed self-destruction mode...there are better-diplomatic-alternatives but a "deep state" is blocking that way out...