Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately |
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BabyCat
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There is clearly some bending at the log scale. Good news, as the Chinese quarantine effect may be starting to show up. Either that, like many others, even the NYT, is that the Chinese are just intentionally manipulating the reported numbers. After my experience in China, I'd bet it's the latter. Still, the quarantine effect may actually be there, just that imagine reported numbers at 10-20% of actual.
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BabyCat
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BabyCat
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Optimistic case? |
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Pandemic
Adviser Group Joined: January 31 2020 Location: UK Status: Offline Points: 2725 |
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That would be better news if confirmed ๐๐๐. Theres several Youtube vloggers on the ground in the epicentre. Their reports are very mixed. No doubt, there is censorship. To what degree ??!
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RFlagg
Valued Member Joined: February 03 2020 Status: Offline Points: 75 |
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This is my first post. I read the medium article that since been taken down (finally found it, somebody saved it) Until I read this article by https://jameslyonsweiler.com/. That is the root page, the article is 'On the origins of the 2019 nCoV virus, Wuhan, China'
The article seems to be the best I've seen so far that explains the possibilities of 2019 nCoV beginning. It gives 4 possibilities and one of them is the accidental release of a virus that (I think) was intended to be a vaccine for China, researched in secret (of course). This makes the most sense to me simply because it doesn't make sense for China to deliberately kill their own people. It also makes sense because for them politics overrides everything. In this case, James Weiler (I assume) says that China has a huge humanitarian problem on it's hands, BUT it should NOT spread out of China the same way that it is spreading IN CHINA. The article just seems to me to be the best one that I have read. I'm going to post this in other sites similar to avianflutalk.com. I would like other people's opinion on this. Eventually me may find the truth, hopefully (aside from everybody catching 2019 nCoV too) Richard |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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This guy is a kook. 5 minutes of trawling through his site uncovered too many tin hat conspiracies and factual inaccuracies.
He may write books, but so did, Tuesday Lobsang Rampa, David Ike and a host of bigger loonies. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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RFlagg
Valued Member Joined: February 03 2020 Status: Offline Points: 75 |
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What do you think is the best explanation?
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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I think it a natural mutation. China has been playing Russian roulette with its saving-face policies, wet markets and hygene practices for decades.
I am not saying it can't be a biowarfare escape. It does tick all the boxes for one. But nature can do everything to produce this without any help from us. When it comes down to it, I don't care. It is here now and we must deal with the consequences. Finding out it was natural or engineered does not help us save any lives. If it was an accidental escape, then China is paying dearly for its stupidity. If it was natural, ditto. Looking for someone to blame is a pointless waste of energy that could be used to save lives. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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I Agree (again with Technophobe)
Pointing fingers is futile....and juvenile It's like at work if you get a cold and someone gets it the day after And they blame You.... Childish...... |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.๐
Marcus Aurelius |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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I agree, Techno. China plays Russian roulette with their food supply, allowing all sorts of wild animals to intermingle in their wet-market environment. These critters shed & pass viruses back and forth, so the bats infect the civets, civets infect people etc. This doesn't have the hallmarks of a bioweapon release. It isn't nearly deadly enough. Trust me. |
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CRS, DrPH
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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I don't like to put myself in the place of a biowarfare designer, but I had a go.
It occured to me that a moderate death rate could be an advantage. It allows greater spread. Big killers like ebola tend to burn themselves out. Who is the target? Individual people - then you want a big killer! or infrastructure - then you want to tie up the hospitals, doctors, dentists, opticians, suppliers of goods and services - you would need a moderate death rate - high enough for panic, low enough and slow enough to knacker the system! There could be a use for a big killer, but they do not strike me as the only option. I know I'm not in the know, but this is just the sort of thing I would use. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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Justlike shooting to injure on the battlefield
Tie up 3/4 peoplejust getting wounded out..... |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.๐
Marcus Aurelius |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Exactly!
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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My children and I played this game last year where we were each a world leader and designed a bio warfare disease. We looked at what we wanted to achieve, why and how we would achieve it.
We decided that ultimately the why was that we wanted another country to move in to and we wanted it intact, with all it's infrastructure, assets and logistics intact, just with no people. So we could just move straight on it. We even wanted the animals still in the fields. To achieve this our disease was highly infectious, no symptoms for 2 to 3 weeks, still contagious once symptoms appear and a death about week later, with a hugely high mortality rate. We pre-empted our strike however by developing a vaccine and vaccinating all our own people first and then checking for the immunity. We also used a stable virus, not an RNA strain. Btw, we released it via a hairspray cannister in 15 international airport bathrooms simultaneously around the world. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesnโt accord with the facts.
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BabyCat
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BabyCat
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From Twitter: "You build a fake #coronavirus model if: 1. The numbers are higher and you hope the exponential will eventually outpace the actuals 2. You are trying to cover up the severity and hope the exponential will eventually outpace the actuals 3. Are over-reporting (not going there)" |
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BabyCat
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Exponential growth out of China continues:
"On February 4, there were 38 new cases outside mainland China, the biggest daily increase to date Quote Tweet BNO Newsroom @BNODesk ยท Feb 4 A little bit of good news about coronavirus: The number of new cases outside mainland China is currently declining: Jan. 31: 28 new cases Feb. 1: 14 new cases Feb. 2: 11 new cases Feb. 3: 6 new cases" -As I've mentioned previously, 1-2 week incubation period and reporting/testing lag time. It's reasonable to prepare for continued increases. Whether or not they are exponential, remains to be seen. However, it does appear to be the case. |
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RFlagg
Valued Member Joined: February 03 2020 Status: Offline Points: 75 |
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An article in Daily Star suggests death rate higher than reported. Crematoriums said to be running 24 hours a day. Smog or smoke over city in these amounts are not typical, it suggests.
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/fears-thick-death-smog-over-21426098 Shocked/not |
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Pandemic
Adviser Group Joined: January 31 2020 Location: UK Status: Offline Points: 2725 |
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There's talk of a 5 day doubling rate for nCov cases, being reported on UK radio this morning. The official figures from John Hopkins tracker, seems to show a significant rise in cases but lower rise in death rates!!, If I'm not mistaken...maybe hope at last !?
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RFlagg
Valued Member Joined: February 03 2020 Status: Offline Points: 75 |
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Do you mean in the sense that it's mutated to a less deadly form and maybe multiplies faster or spreads even more easily?
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BabyCat
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More discussion on Twitter about possible deceleration in latest numbers, and move away from exponential to sub-exponential. There is talk about fitting quadratics, third degree polynomials, etc.
I think perhaps this is possible, if one could trust the numbers. I don't. I think they are published to create a narrative. Here are some graphs to think about. The latter ones are from a paper which describes the exponential growth characteristics of epidemics. Pay particular attention to how Ro affects the expoential growth rate. Essentially, unless Ro is less than 2 some how, some way (whether by reduced transmission, quarantine, social distancing, vaccination, etc.) this is still going to be a very big problem in the months to come not only for China, but for the world. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5348083/ Mathematical models to characterize early epidemic growth: A Review Gerardo Chowell,1,2 Lisa Sattenspiel,3 Shweta Bansal,4,2 and Cรฉcile Viboud2 |
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BabyCat
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The decreasing percentage increases in daily China totals (likely from the severe quarantine of Wuhan and Hubei) perhaps are shown.
What if the rest of the world isn't ready for that type of extreme quarantine? Will Hong Kong become like Wuhan? Can it? What about San Francisco? Or Dehli? |
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BabyCat
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Discussion that the numbers are staged:
" @evdefender Fraud investigator preparing for the Elon Musk congressional hearings. Tracking #coronavirus because Elon says it's the common cold. 189 Following 1,962 Followers Search Twitter See new Tweets Conversation R^2 = 1.0000 @evdefender ยท 7h We finally overshot the Hubei #CoronaVirus predictions by a bit: Feb. 5 Hubei Province Cases: 19,665 (+2987) Deaths: 549 (+70) This marks the narrative's first reported decrease in daily acceleration. Quote Tweet R^2 = 1.0000 @evdefender ยท 21h From the Feb. 4 data, Hubei (1/31 regions) had 69% of "confirmed" Mainland #coronavirus cases. Yet, Hubei model adjusts more than the full Mainland: harder prediction. ๐ค I'd post these for Hubei tonight to maintain narrative: Cases: 20,218 (+3540) Deaths: 562 (+83) Show this thread R^2 = 1.0000 @evdefender ยท 6h Feb. 5 Mainland China #CoronaVirus: A New Narrative! Cases: 28,018 (+3694) Deaths: 563 (+73) The Good?: Finally overshot a bit as it's the 1st time new cases less than previous day! The Bad?: It's all a goal seek on (-0Day) Mortality = 2.01% Quote Tweet R^2 = 1.0000 @evdefender ยท 18h Tonight's Mainland #CoronaVirus numbers posted 11 hours before the release if I were in charge of maintaining the narrative and leaning on the optimistic side as stated previously. Let's hope I'm high this time. Cases: 28,678 (+4,354) Deaths: 578 (+88) Show this thread R^2 = 1.0000 @evdefender ยท 6h A major observation here is the mortality rate calculated on a day/day or (-0 Day) basis, which is wound very tightly around 2.01% regardless of fit on # of cases. It has also been very steady with a slight decline seeking 2.0% since the narrative change Jan 27. #coronavirus R^2 = 1.0000 @evdefender Tomorrow is Important: Today marks the 1st day in the last 10 where I can't simply explain the point by a pre-determined quadratic. It is therefore their 1st attempt at introducing some variability into the model or a shift in the narrative to begin a rollover." https://mobile.twitter.com/evdefender/status/1225217509000761344? |
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BabyCat
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"A. Fellow White
@huntedviva ยท 6h China's reported numbers from the #coronavirus is a joke. They fit perfectly in a quadratic function. Today's and yesterday's numbers were predicted perfectly by this model." https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=coronavirus%20quadratic&src=typed_query&f=live |
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BabyCat
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@evdefender makes a great point. The numbers being reported are too perfect. That is, fit neatly into a quadratic of R2 = 1.00 (well, .995 or better).
In a moving chaotic situation such as this, the numbers shouldn't all fit perfectly on the curve!!!! They are totally managing the reported infections and the fatality rate to try to make it so that they can appear to have "won the battle" no matter the truth (or the dead bodies) on the ground. China has buried the truth (and the evidence, and millions of bodies) before, and they will do it again. It's obviously a false narrative. China lies. It's what they do. I lived there. |
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BabyCat
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Let's see if this guy is correct in his prediction. We'll know in about eight hours.
-- "R^2 = 1.0000 @evdefender ยท 4h Feb 6 2020 Mainland China #CoronaVirus Predictions: Similar to Hubei: I'm using a curve regressing to 0.9999 on the last 10 prints (Jan.27) while estimating that a narrative shift will make these high. Cases: 32,180 (+4,162) Deaths: 647 (+84) Report in ~10.5 hrs." https://mobile.twitter.com/evdefender/status/1225408294585393153 |
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BabyCat
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Wishful thinking? Wrong conclusion based on a faulty assumption the data is correct?
-- https://mobile.twitter.com/d_voigtlaender/status/1225530773102628865 Dirk Voigtlรคnder @d_voigtlaender The daily percentage increase in laboratoy-confirmed cumulated corona infections seems to decline by c.1%pt per day. Should this trends continue the number of new cases should peak mid February and hopefully be further reduced in the time beyond. #coronavirus #coronavirusoutbreak |
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BabyCat
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Wow, evdefender has cracked the falsified numbers from China. Just below the modeled regression R squared = 0.9999 to appear like they are now "winning." It's all about the narrative. They will round people up, forced them into quarantine centers, so there are no more videos of dead bodies removed from apartments, and they can continue to falsify the true number of infected and dead. Whisk the dead quickly away to a crematorium.
his prediction is spot on. These numbers are fake. One thing I learned living in China for years, was basically everything was faked. Prediction: imilar to Hubei: I'm using a curve regressing to 0.9999 on the last 10 prints (Jan.27) while estimating that a narrative shift will make these high. Cases: 32,180 (+4,162) Deaths: 647 (+84) Report in ~10.5 hrs." --- Actual: --- Country, Territory Total Cases Feb 6 Cases Total Deaths Feb 6 Deaths Total Recovered Total Critical Region China 31,161 +3,143 636 +73 1,541 4,820 As |
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Usk
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I wish our homeland security and cdc would pay attention to your spot on post which I mentioned 3 weeks ago that those numbers looked fishy compared to boots on the ground resources
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BabyCat
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Third time trying to post due to internet interference. Perhaps my posts are getting some attention?
- I already believe that US agencies are well aware of the underreporting of Chinese cases, esp. the CIA and DHS. That's their job, full of really smart analysts, who, perhaps like me, use a bit of critical thinking, common sense, and an understanding of Chinese culture and government habits (short story: they lie), to figure things out. Dr. Fauci even said today he believes the reported numbers are far below actual. The actions of the US, declaring an emergency, shutting air travel, preparing for pandemic, rushing testing kits, creating the Task Force, etc. show they really understand the threat. The CCP doesn't believe anyone outside the party, ESPECIALLY outsiders and foreigners, have a right to know true internal data. There are two sets of books in a sense, the real, and the cooked. They do it with economic data, and they do it with other data. I learned after years of living in China many things are faked. Anyway, we'll soon know the real situation, because the international numbers are starting to take off. They also look exponential, with a doubling time at the moment of around 4 days, +/-2. Maybe a 3rd degree polynomial. Internationally, we'll be at 300 in a day or two, and then 500 in around 3-4 days, and 1,000, in about 7-8 days, I fear. Then all bets are off where and when this is going to erupt. |
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Usk
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Do you think it is following the same curve as Avian Flu in 2009. At the conference in DC today at 2 pm the Asian Dr mentioned that. She seemed to down play corona virus numbers out of China but said that a second wave in the Fall would be the one the US needed to prepare for
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BabyCat
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Well, someone asked to make a bit of a prediction of cases internationally in the next 30, 60 , or 90 days. Of cousse, the way this virus transmits depends on the healthc are system surveillance and response, government infection intervention efforts, the density of the area it may be transmitting in, their hygiene, etc. etc. etc.
However, one estimate an expert is working with said that it's doubling every 5 days, roughly. Well, we can simply take our current infections and then see what happens every five days, right? Here's what could happen internationally: Today: 270 5 560 10 1120 15 2240 20 4480 25 8960 30 17,920 35 35,940 40 71,680 45 143,360 50 286,720 55 573,440 60 1,146,880 In the US, there are currently 12 infections. 5 24 10 48 15 96 20 192 25 384 30 768 35 1536 40 3072 45 6144 50 12,288 55 24,576 60 49,182 While these figures don't seem "that" frightening, they do seem a bit ominous. Hence, while I think all the talk is of "delaying" and "preparing" for the possible pandemic. I don't imagine the US getting to that high figure, that soon, at this time. I think that strong contact tracing, case identification, and other measures (that layered response they talk about) will pay off like it did for the SARS response. That, and I have faith this President is going to take this very, very seriously and do what needs to be done. Another really important point is that one expert (Dr. Neil) said maybe 25% of international cases have been indentified yet). Others may not be reconginized, or are/were mild cases, but still transmissable. Also, remember the reported case severity of identified cases is about 25%. |
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BabyCat
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Well, there appears to be some good news in the graphs and models I have found (below). Whether it's an artificial narrative, or reality, remains to be seen.
The real story is internationally at this point, I believe. Will it take off, is it taking off in some place at this moment? |
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BabyCat
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EVDefender says he's fairly certain he understands the new Chinese narrative now.
Here's his pic. It basically says the new story coming out of China is that all is getting better and well, the country is going to get back to work soon. Does anyone buy that story, if it comes out soon? As we have seen, China can certainly try to lock up all the potential cases and just cremate those who die, and hide the real figures. |
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BabyCat
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It's apparently a new day in falsified data land...
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pheasant
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I agree with you Babycat, furthermore, the government is on a major propaganda campaign right now...slogans like fight the enemy, win the battle, sacrifice for victory etc:
They are in a war. |
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Newbie1A
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I agree with you both - I call BS...all those thousands of people standing in lines, waiting in hospital hallways etc should all be simmering into full blown cases pretty soon. Xi is a self inflated egomaniac...just saying...has WAY more concern about saving face (his!) then the people under his dictatorship rule! |
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If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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And me, I agree with all three.
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Lonewolf
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Exponential growth over any long length of time need to take in account of seasonal variations as growth would depend upon outside temperature.
These viruses are seasonal dependent |
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BabyCat
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Yes, the US is counting on holding through the first wave until summer.
-- Evdefender's number prediction for today: EVent Horizon @evdefender ยท 6h Feb. 7 Mainland China #CoronaVirus Predictions: Cases: 34,022 (+2861) Deaths: 696 (+59) Similarly, am expecting to see them report more confirmation on the new Mainland trend. This is pretty vital to get things back to normal after the extreme containment measures." https://mobile.twitter.com/evdefender/status/1225728923847274496 - Remember, few experts believe these are actual numbers. They are Soviet style numbers meant for general consumption and pacifying the public. This is just a "story" - |
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BabyCat
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International cases rising 18% day. I did a quick breakdown projection, where we might be in 30, 60, 90 days at that rate.
Day 1 326 (today) 2 385 3 454 4 536 5 632 6 746 7 880 8 1038 9 1225 10 1446 11 1706 12 2013 13 2015 14 2378 15 2806 16 3311 17 3907 18 4610 19 5440 20 6419 21 7575 22 8939 23 10548 24 12,447 25 14,6687 26 17,331 27 20,450 28 24,131 29 28,475 30 33,600 31 39,649 32 46,786 33 55,207 34 65,144 35 76,870 36 90,707 37 107,034 38 126,300 39 149,034 40 175,860 41 207,515 42 244,868 43 288,944 44 340,954 45 402,326 46 474,745 47 560,199 48 662,034 49 780,021 50 920,424 51 1,086,101 52 1,281,599 53 1,512,286 54 1,784,498 55 2,105,708 56 2,484,735 57 2,931,987 58 3,459,745 59 4,082,499 60 4,817,349 61 5,684,472 62 6,707,677 63 7,915,058 64 9,338,769 65 11,929,927 66 13,994,694 67 15,345,539 68 18,107,736 69 21,367,129 70 25,213,212 71 29,751,590 71 35,106,876 72 41,426,114 73 48,882,815 74 57,681,721 75 68,064,431 76 80,316,029 77 94,772,914 78 111,832,038 79 131,961,805 80 155,714,930 81 183,743,617 82 216,817,468 83 255,844,613 84 301,896,643 85 356,238,049 86 420,360,886 87 496,025,845 88 585,310,497 89 690,666,387 90 815,986,337 --- Conclusion: Would it hurt to be a little prepared for this, in case (God forbid), it happens like this? |
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Pandemic
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Sky news are reporting approx 34,000 cases worldwide ( including 2841( Hubei new cases total there approx 25000) and 719 deaths globally so far. I've always believed that the lid can be held down for so long then the truth comes out!!!.
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BabyCat
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Trend outside China is clearly exponential, while supposed trend now in China somewhat stabilizing. I don't buy it, especially the supposed death count.
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BabyCat
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BabyCat
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