Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately

Wasn’t that REM?

Yeah, my best estimate for current US infections today is 150,000...

Given that,with 4.5 doubling, we'll have:

3/12 150,000

3/16 and a half 300,000

3/21 600,000 (HERE IS WHERE SOCIAL DISTANCING EFFORTS MAY BECOME APPARENT)

3/25 and a half: 1.2 MILLION

3/30 2.4  MILLION Americans infected

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It looks like 600,000 US infected already ensured. At a minimum, I foresee 600,000 x.01 (1% due to likely undercount/undertesting) deaths = 6,000 deaths in next five weeks, only partial v. more complete shutdowns will lead to more deaths, probably see "only" 24,000 deaths within two months if we're lucky imo

Great point. In fact, that was exactly the experience in the Life Care (?) nursing home facility in WA. They had residents who died of "viral pneumonia" who were later found to be positive once they re-ran the samples once the cluster was discovered a week or two later. But if so, probably at the most, in the low dozens statewide or I'd think they'd find the cluster. 

Here's the logic behind Ohio's 100K figure...basically, community spread they believe implies minimum 1% general pop.:

100,000 cases

: estimate by Ohio state health director. “We know now, just fact of community spread, says that at least 1%, at very least, of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today. We have 11.7 mil people. So math is over 100,000." #COVID19

Closely following the daily upticks in NY, I think BabyCat's chart is pretty accurate.  Cases are rising exponentially and too fast for my comfort in the last week.   That pink line set my neck hairs standing.  

FYI The City of New York has a population of 8.3 million alone.  The entire state has 19.4 million.  

I'm not sure I'm following you kcs.  But then charts and graphing was never my strong suit.  

Presidential emergency declaration under Stafford Act by 3pm EST by Pres. Trump.

As predicted, by Tuesday. I thought it would be sooner, but said Tuesday to be safe. :)

Today is March 16, currently 98,657 worldwide ex-China reported infections, will reach 100K in moments...

Pretty close to projections - would have been by 12th-15th if S. Korea hadn't done such a great job in containment. Nevertheless, my projection weeks ago that we'd reach 100k between 12th and 20th was spot on (16th). 

Us at 4,289.  We'll see when we reach 10,000. I had projected by 3/18 (end of day). I think we'll be pretty close, much of rise captured by increased testing capacity. 

May have time for more projections, may not. 

It's a dice roll now. Watch Italy. If they crest soon, a very good sign. Watch UK and their 'herd immunity' experiment. Could be a disaster, maybe not because many people will choose to socially distance themselves despite the lack of compulsion from government. 

100,498 reported worldwide ex-China infections. A milestone. 

Next stop: 1,000,000. Will project if I get time, but I seriously believe that with concerted efforts from many countries we can flatten and lengthen the curve.

The Swedish and British approach to let it burn out in the young actually has some insane plausibility, but it's a risk that is just very, very high. Someone said that ID call "herd immunity" at the end "pack of survivors".

You're on your own, if that's still not clear. It's the people that are ahead of the curve, leading the leaders. 

You're so sweet (as are most here...except AI ;) I'm fine - made a bold decision, maybe I'll share it someday. 

Hmm...well, some say I have an uncanny knack for seeing the future. 

Read this Santa Clara County SIP Order. It's unlike anything I've ever seen. Necessary, for sure, but just, wow.  

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/order-health-officer-031620.aspx

Gee, someone who could have seen when that was coming could have made sure to prep ahead for every contingency.. ;). (looks back to prior posts on timing of mandatory SIP orders)...