Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)

PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
123456
Forum Home Forum Home > Main Forums > Latest News
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - "Extra" MERS cases discovered. MERS CFR now 40%
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

"Extra" MERS cases discovered. MERS CFR now 40%

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
LOPPER View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote LOPPER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: "Extra" MERS cases discovered. MERS CFR now 40%
    Posted: June 03 2014 at 12:33pm
Saudi officials said Tuesday they had found 113 more cases of the deadly MERS virus in old medical records — and more than 90 extra deaths.

The new numbers bring the total Saudi toll from MERS to 282 deaths out of 688 cases, making for a 40 percent fatality rate.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/mers-mystery/saudi-officials-find-extra-mers-cases-n121341


Back to Top
Satori View Drop Down
Valued Member
Valued Member
Avatar

Joined: June 03 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 28655
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Satori Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 03 2014 at 1:19pm

and now the Deputy Health Minister has been sacked


related ???


Deputy health minister sacked as Saudi Arabia announces 113 unreported MERS cases


http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/deputy-health-minister-sacked-over-saudi-mers-handling

Back to Top
CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
Expert Level Adviser
Expert Level Adviser


Joined: January 20 2014
Location: Arizona
Status: Offline
Points: 26660
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 03 2014 at 5:31pm
Originally posted by LOPPER LOPPER wrote:

Saudi officials said Tuesday they had found 113 more cases of the deadly MERS virus in old medical records — and more than 90 extra deaths.

The new numbers bring the total Saudi toll from MERS to 282 deaths out of 688 cases, making for a 40 percent fatality rate.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/mers-mystery/saudi-officials-find-extra-mers-cases-n121341



Thanks, that is very important!  

I did some very early research on the Legionnaire's Disease organism (1980), and we found that old, preserved tissue samples from years ago presented with the bacterium.  It is extremely difficult to culture, and the trick wasn't discovered until after the big outbreak in Philadelphia in 1976 that brought this to the public's attention.  

It turns out that the bacterium had been causing a "baseline" of infections for many, many years, and patients either survived or died of "pneumonia, cause not specified."  Now, we find the bacterium in swimming pools, spas, industrial cooling towers, drinking fountains, shower heads etc.  

So, MERS may be somewhat similar....it may have been circulating in the ecosystem for years, but did not rise to be considered a serious disease.  The National Geographic article that was posted was excellent, they find antibodies to the MERS co-v in all sorts of camel populations, even geographically remote & unconnected groups (isolated camel herds on the Canary Islands!!).


It just gets stranger & stranger....
CRS, DrPH
Back to Top
jacksdad View Drop Down
Executive Admin
Executive Admin
Avatar

Joined: September 08 2007
Location: San Diego
Status: Offline
Points: 47251
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 03 2014 at 5:41pm
Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

The National Geographic article that was posted was excellent, they find antibodies to the MERS co-v in all sorts of camel populations, even geographically remote & unconnected groups (isolated camel herds on the Canary Islands!!).


...and in samples from as far back as 1992. That was the one that blew me away Shocked


"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
Back to Top
CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
Expert Level Adviser
Expert Level Adviser


Joined: January 20 2014
Location: Arizona
Status: Offline
Points: 26660
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 03 2014 at 8:58pm
Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

The National Geographic article that was posted was excellent, they find antibodies to the MERS co-v in all sorts of camel populations, even geographically remote & unconnected groups (isolated camel herds on the Canary Islands!!).


...and in samples from as far back as 1992. That was the one that blew me away Shocked



Indeed!  That's what makes epidemiology such an attractive field for me....all sorts of surprises!  

HIV turns out to have been acquired from wild primates (chimps) in Africa, by natives who like to kill & eat 'em.  HIV circulates in simian populations without causing many problems, and it simmered in Africa for ages until, well, it broke out.  In epidemiology, the acronym MSM doesn't mean "mainstream media," but rather "men who have sex with other men."  I kid you not.

In the modern era of jet aviation, international cities & fast-paced living, we'll see all sorts of things pop up. I like that AFT keeps such a close eye on things.  
CRS, DrPH
Back to Top
onefluover View Drop Down
Admin Group
Admin Group
Avatar

Joined: April 21 2013
Location: Death Valleyish
Status: Offline
Points: 20151
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote onefluover Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 03 2014 at 9:24pm
.
"And then there were none."
Back to Top
cobber View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 04 2014 at 2:36am
We picked it over a year ago!!!!!

KSA cover up!!!! Highly irresponsible

This sacking of the minister is very suspect too. I'll bet he's being used as a scapegoat to hid behind.
Back to Top
Utwig View Drop Down
V.I.P. Member
V.I.P. Member
Avatar

Joined: June 02 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 2210
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Utwig Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 04 2014 at 2:57am
The same thing happened with SARS, just when the WHO thought it was getting to grips with it, the Chinese authorities announced unreported cases.

It seems this is standard for all governments when addressing issues like Pandemic control to underestimate (we all already knew that but its worth making sure what you think is backed up in reality), something we should all be aware of.

If you take that line of reasoning and look at some numbers, with SARS the numbers announced increased the 'real' numbers by around 50% (if I remember they announced around 400) with MERS, it looks like a little under 50% but roughly in the same ball park.

Can we assume then that the outbreak of Ebola spreading in west Africa is also 50% worse than is being reported? Maybe that explains why they cant contain it.


Utwig.
Remember to get your whole head in front of the shotgun!
Back to Top
Technophobe View Drop Down
Assistant Admin
Assistant Admin
Avatar

Joined: January 16 2014
Location: Scotland
Status: Offline
Points: 88450
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 04 2014 at 3:04am
Bang on Utwig! Thumbs Up  I could not have put it better. Clap
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
Back to Top
EdwinSm, View Drop Down
Moderator
Moderator


Joined: April 03 2013
Status: Offline
Points: 24065
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 04 2014 at 3:19am
Regarding the figure of KSA showing a CFR of around 40%.  The latest figures of UAE has 10 deaths from 68 cases which is a CFR of almost 15%.  This is a big difference. 

If the UAE report shows the 'true CFR'  then KSA is missing 2 cases for every one they find. This implies that they have not been very active in testing!
Back to Top
Technophobe View Drop Down
Assistant Admin
Assistant Admin
Avatar

Joined: January 16 2014
Location: Scotland
Status: Offline
Points: 88450
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 04 2014 at 4:53am
Your analysis of figures Edwin strikes me as more believable than any other yet given.  Not just a valid point, but I think you have hit the nail on the head. 

Worryingly, that would give KSA a huge number of MERS cases, with the addititon of the 100+ recently discovered, that would give a total number of cases of well over 1,000.  I hope a few people in positions of greater power than us "afters" are capable of such exquisite extrapolation, it might make them take this more seriously.
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
Back to Top
jacksdad View Drop Down
Executive Admin
Executive Admin
Avatar

Joined: September 08 2007
Location: San Diego
Status: Offline
Points: 47251
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 04 2014 at 4:59am
I have to agree, Edwin. I think the KSA figures are a result of shoddy testing and there are a lot more undiagnosed cases out there. I have a hard time with the 40% CFR as Europe's not seeing anything like that.
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
Back to Top
CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
Expert Level Adviser
Expert Level Adviser


Joined: January 20 2014
Location: Arizona
Status: Offline
Points: 26660
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 04 2014 at 10:33am
MERS may not be as stout of a Co-V as SARS was.  We've long noticed that patients, especially mortalities, had other conditions = kidney problems etc. 

The Co-V is a very common type of virus, one of the main reasons for the common cold.  The Egyptian tomb bat connection is fascinating, we are finding that bats are brewing all sorts of nasty pathogens which can then leap into other mammalian populations. 

I doubt that MERS is some type of SARS variant, it is its own Co-V.  However, we see that these things leap into people, and probably have for many years.  
CRS, DrPH
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down