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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

february 2023 updates

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 01 2023 at 11:36pm

DJ...

Can you solve a problem by making a law denying the problem ? The US is trying it....[url]https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/02/01/pers-f01.html[/url] or https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/02/01/pers-f01.htmlThe statement announcing the end date of the states of emergency is framed as a response to two bills introduced in January in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, one of which is titled the “Pandemic is Over Act.”

DJ...maybe some more on the outcome of this insanity ? 

The immediate implication of this policy change is that all government funding related to the pandemic will be ended, in what amounts to the final privatization of the US pandemic response. The most severely impacted section of the population will be the roughly 30 million uninsured Americans, who will lose access to free COVID-19 testing, treatments and vaccines. Pfizer intends to sell its vaccine at the extremely marked-up price of up to $130 per dose, while at-home tests sell for $10 each in the US--unaffordable costs for the vast majority of uninsured Americans.

Another 60 million Medicare recipients will have to pay at least partially for at-home tests, testing-related services, and all COVID-19 treatments, while privately insured individuals could incur out-of-pocket costs for COVID-19 testing.

Broader changes to Medicare and Medicaid will also take place with the ending of the emergency declarations. The Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that 5-14 million Americans will lose Medicaid coverage altogether, after enrollment in the program grew by 28 percent between February 2020 and September 2022. Telehealth services for Medicare beneficiaries will be cut off after 2024, despite the increased popularity of these services during the pandemic.

So...

The planned de jure ending of the pandemic emergency in the US is a political and social measure totally divorced from the science of epidemiology and virology, which make clear the multiple reasons why the pandemic is ongoing and could worsen dramatically at any moment.

From a global perspective;

First, the pandemic is a global phenomenon that cannot be declared “over” by any single country. Indeed, on the same day that the White House released its statement, the World Health Organization (WHO) reaffirmed that the public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) first declared in January 2020 should continue.

One of the primary factors motivating the WHO decision is the unprecedented wave of infections and deaths sweeping across China, where a majority of the country’s 1.4 billion people are estimated to have been infected and nearly 1 million are believed to have died from COVID-19 in the past two months alone. This horror is the direct result of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) lifting of the Zero-COVID public health policy, demanded by US imperialism for over two years.

Second, SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is continuing to evolve at a rapid clip, with the mass infection in China only accelerating this process. Over the past year, the US experienced five distinct waves of infections and deaths from different Omicron subvariants that evolved in different parts of the world and spread globally.

The most recent surge in the US has been driven by the XBB.1.5 subvariant, nicknamed “Kraken” due to its extreme immune-evasion properties, which give it the ability to infect people who are vaccinated, previously infected, or both. A growing number of people globally are being reinfected by this and other Omicron subvariants, with each reinfection proven to increase one’s risk of hospitalization, death or debilitation with Long COVID.

When asked, every principled virologist in the world would acknowledge that at any point a far more dangerous variant could evolve, combining greater immune-evasion, transmissibility and virulence, thereby causing the worst global surge of the pandemic to date. The policies of lifting all mitigation measures and encouraging people to believe the pandemic is over, now pursued in the US, China and globally, leaves society totally unprepared for this potentiality.

Third, while official figures on infections and deaths are now inaccurate, examining wastewater and excess deaths shows that the “new normal” is a persistently high baseline of mass infections and deaths throughout the world.

In the US, wastewater sampling indicates that for most of the past year, viral transmission was at or near the peak levels reached during the first winter surge in 2020-21 and the surge of the Delta variant in the summer of 2021. Excess deaths in the US remain elevated far above pre-pandemic levels, at 680 deaths per day, according to The Economist. Globally, there are an estimated 12,200 daily excess deaths attributable to the pandemic.

The formal ending of the declaration of emergency in the US takes place after a year of relentless propaganda claiming that “Omicron is mild” and COVID-19 is now “endemic” and no more harmful than the flu--lies used to justify the scrapping of all anti-COVID mitigation measures in the US.

The impact of this policy has fallen most heavily on older Americans of retirement age, with over 90 percent of all COVID-19 deaths now affecting people 65 years or older. Indeed, the American ruling class has worked out a systematic and deliberate plan to allow the death of the aged and those with disabilities and illnesses.

DJ...since this article sums up the total lack of strategy dealing with a worsening healthcrisis I did copy most of it...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2023 at 12:14am

DJ-Does insanity only shows itself in how governments deal with the pandemic ? 

The New Atlas [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XJ_1hTNPhs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XJ_1hTNPhs describing how the west is sending military goods to Ukraine where Russia is destroying them....The US is pushing for war with China...killing Chinese in Pakistan, Myanmar...The US claiming there is only one China...but it is sending loads of weapons to Taiwan...wich the US claim is part of China...A bit like Russia claiming only one US or UK but it sends lots of military hardware/advisors to Alaska, Texas, Scotland...and if DC or London protests "it is agression" ...

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-global-climate-change-suicide-pact.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-global-climate-change-suicide-pact.html  "United we fight climate change"...NO-we are using the "CO2-budget" we claim is still there to pollute more..."As long as the temperature baseline keeps under 1,5C increase"...so we raise the baseline of what we call "pre-industrial"...

Compared to 2022 there may not be more excess deaths in 2023..."problem solved"....Okay...we will include 2020, 2021....

DJ-If the basic political goal is to deny the problem..."at best" "create extra money" "to solve a problem" by creating/worsening other problems (like fiat-currencies...debt-based...) the only thing to expect is problems getting worse....

If a lie is hidden with just more lies...repression is "the answer";

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6THYNgk8Ew&t=2s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U6THYNgk8Ew&t=2s ;Dr.John Campbell;

It is quite obvious that our activities resulted in the monitoring of the UK population ... monitoring the social media posts of ordinary, scared people These posts did not contain information that was untrue or co-ordinated – it was simply fear I developed the impression the Government were more interested in protecting the success of their policies than uncovering any potential foreign interference 

DJ...the UK 77th Army Brigade checking "the internet" and delating all content disagreeing with the UK.gov views....George Orwell may be shocked...East German StaSi love it....What knowledge does the UK army have in this pandemic discussion to claim they know what is (100%) real and what is not ? 

Censorship as a new normal.....

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/medical-thailand-thai-study-validates-that-covid-19-induced-immune-dysfunction-is-driving-increased-incidence-of-pulmonary-tuberculosis[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/medical-thailand-thai-study-validates-that-covid-19-induced-immune-dysfunction-is-driving-increased-incidence-of-pulmonary-tuberculosis ...

Does CoViD result in a weaker immunity ? Lots of discussions on that...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/reinfection/covid-reinfection-causes-an-immune-deficiency-that-can-no-longer-be-cured/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/reinfection/covid-reinfection-causes-an-immune-deficiency-that-can-no-longer-be-cured/ Karl Lauterbach [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Lauterbach[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karl_Lauterbach

Lauterbach studied human medicine at the RWTH Aachen University, University of Texas at San Antonio and University of Düsseldorf, where he graduated. From 1989 to 1992, he studied health policy and management as well as epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health in Boston, graduating with a Doctor of Science in 1992.[3] From 1992 to 1993, he held a fellowship at the Harvard Medical School, sponsored by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, which is close to the CDU. Lauterbach was a CDU member for several years before joining the SPD in 2001.[5]

From 1998 until 2005, Lauterbach served as the director of the Institute of Health Economics and Clinical Epidemiology (IGKE) at the University of Cologne, and was subsequently on leave from that role due to his tenure in the Bundestag.[4] He was appointed adjunct professor at the Harvard School of Public Health in 2008.[1

DJ Lots of discussion on lots of aspects...My view on vaccines is;

-short term they may have saved lives

-long term variants did find ways to bypass vaccine-protection

-vaccines may have had more risks then the vaccine makers were willing to tell

-vaccines are a medical intervention-Governments do NOT have the power to enforce medical interventions (but may exclude people in some sectors if they were not willing to accept those interventions...The army may "order" military send to a malaria-country to take malaria-drugs...is part of the job...). 







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Merck’s Covid pill is giving rise to new mutations of the virus, some of which are already spreading, a new study says

DJ...medical interventions can worsen a healthcrisis...

A look at statistics...

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data UK symptomatic cases going up....at least based on self reporting of symptoms...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table may claim global cases decreasing...even with low testing. 

Austria cases +46%, Poland +43%, Albania +33%, Laos +29%, Estonia, Tunesia +28% (etc). DJ-Some East European statistics Germany +25%, Russia +23% make me wonder what is happening with CoViD in Ukraine....

Of course you can make a law against CoViD-testing...a law against media reporting on healthcrises...(anti-terrorism ?) ...UK is making a law against strikes in the public sector...They offered pay rise..."it is not the UK.gov mistake inflation is higher then the payrise"....

So...again...I will try to follow the pandemic the WHO still is regarding as a [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concern[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concern but-now- US.gov by law claim is over...in Japan it is "flu-like" ...

Crazy world...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2023 at 11:50pm

DJ, 

Combination of war and disease is worsening a healthcrisis. Ir was that way during the Spanish Flu-during World War One...it is that way now with NATO "moving east"  while Ukraine [url]https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(22)00214-6/fulltext[/url] or https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(22)00214-6/fulltext ;

Ukraine has the fourth-highest TB incidence in the WHO European Region and the fifth-highest number of confirmed cases of extensively drug-resistant TB in the world. 

DJ, There may not be much testing for CoViD left in Ukraine [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table so a decrease of 31% of cases, over 3,000 last week to over 2,100 last 7 days, CoViD Ukraine deaths -26% from 42 to 31 in last 7 days has as much value as the claim Ukraine population still would be 43 million+ ....

NATO-controlled Ukraine may have about 25 million in population ? Maybe even lower ? There keep coming up of "mentions" of a TB-crisis in Ukraine...

Since "the rest of the world" may have decided a next NATO war will be on NATO territory (since the west loves war that much....)  it may be time to prepare for a worsening healthcrisis...

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data UK CoViD self reported cases increasing again...slowly for now (february 1 had 1.644,925 expected cases, january 31 had 1,620,311...so an increase of 25,000 ?) 








The variant mix remains just that - a mix of a whole load of variants with none dominating.  Four variants have a similar "market share", being BQ.1.1, BR.2, BA.2.75 and XBF.

DJ...if there is not much testing then there are less samples for sequencing...Waste-water monitoring gets more important...However "pandemic-is-over-politics" may defund that kind of studies...

The pandemic is dealt with like climate collapse; [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-global-climate-change-suicide-pact.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-global-climate-change-suicide-pact.html ;  Despite of deceptively-claimed mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in parts of the world, ongoing burning of domestic and exported fossil fuels world-wide continues to change the composition of the atmosphere, enriching it in greenhouse gases by yet another ~2 ppm CO₂ (2022: 418.95 ppm; CH₄: 1915 ppb; N₂0: 337 ppb), reaching levels commensurate with those of the Miocene (23.03 to 5.333 Ma) at rise rates exceeding any in the geological record of the last 66 million years (Glikson, 2020) (Figure 1). 

and

Following failed attempts to deny climate science, vested business and political interests are proceeding, with the support of many governments, to mine coal, sink oil wells and frack hydrocarbon gas, regardless of the consequences in term of global heating, sea level rise, inundation of islands and coastal zones, collapse of the permafrost, heat waves, floods, ocean acidification, migration of climate zones and dissemination of plastic particles, rendering the future of much of the biosphere uninhabitable.

DJ...The pandemic is the outcome of "politics for sale-democrazy"....Creating more fiat-money out of thin air...push it to "private companies" ...the tax money ends up in some corrupt pockets...Problems are NOT solved...endless bla-bla...We-as citizens-have to demand more...not accept insane lies...

Worldometers  has Portugal cases +185%, Belgium +25%, Germany +19%...NL (in between Belgium and Germany) cases would be -17%...most likely because NL now only updates twice a week...[url]https://coronadashboard.government.nl/[/url] or https://coronadashboard.government.nl/  a lot of info from NL may reflect the situation from over a week ago....

Poland cases +46%, Austria cases +44%, Estonia +28%, Czechia +26% have an Ukraine link ? (DJ-Refugees deserve the best available care...however most if not all refugees rather would have stayed "home"....Wars and poverty/income inequality are crimes against humanity...NATO has to stop its wars !).

Outside Europe Vietnam cases +94%, Singapore +76%, Haïti +74%, Taiwan +61%, Cambodia +44%....Russia +25%, India +24%, Pakistan +16%...so "pandemic is over" may be unrealistic...

In lots of countries testing is not free...so number of "positive tests" in the US, UK will go down...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/eight-patients-with-sars-cov-2-and-mers-coinfection/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/eight-patients-with-sars-cov-2-and-mers-coinfection/ ; Saudi scientists have reported that eight ICU patients with a SARS-CoV-2 and MERS coinfection were detected in 2020. Four of the patients were discharged home and three died.

DJ...[url]https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33727175/[/url] or https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33727175/ march-october 2020 study in KSA. 

Maybe the main part of the story is already EIGHT !!!! cases of MERS/SARS-2 coinfections in KSA 2020....How many more cases will have been missed ? 








Since the start of the pandemic 180K <17s were admitted with Covid in the US. Given an <17 population of 73M that means about 1 in 400 under 17s were admitted with Covid since the start of the pandemic. 1460 of these died due to Covid (1 in 50K). https://cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

CoViD "not a problem for children"....only 0,25% of the <17 y/o ended up in hospital with CoViD....








#COVID19  #UglyPeak update  #SARSCoV2 Test Positivity Rate: 33.5% (slight very high and early signs of trending up again) Source: 

In the US [url]https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/02/01/pers-f01.html[/url] or https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/02/01/pers-f01.html ; The statement announcing the end date of the states of emergency is framed as a response to two bills introduced in January in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, one of which is titled the “Pandemic is Over Act.” Under conditions in which an average of over 500 Americans are presently dying from COVID-19 every day, both big business parties are colluding to codify into law Biden’s false declaration last September that “the pandemic is over.”

DJ...So US/UK "excess deaths numbers" will increase...CoViD NOT mentioned on death certificate because nobedy did test for it....

End of part 1...maybe more later...DJ The Ukraine TB/CoViD story needs more info....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2023 at 11:47pm

DJ, 

"Info-overload"....I put info on H5N1 spread in mammals in latest news...(part of increase of spread may be statistics; more testing but also more birds with H5N1...so wild animals will have more contact with the virus...). 

Statistics on CoViD [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data Did they go for new calculation models ? YES !

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/blog/covid-estimates-updated[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/blog/covid-estimates-updated ;

To ensure that our figures are as robust as possible, we’ve updated how we calculate our COVID incidence estimates. This means that you’ll see the numbers change.

We'll explain why we're updating our COVID incidence figures, how we've recalibrated these estimates, and why we still need you to keep logging your health data in the app.

Why are we updating our COVID incidence figures?

From April 2022, the government of the United Kingdom stopped offering free COVID tests.

As a result, over the last few months, our raw COVID rates diverged slightly from the government’s official estimates, which are calculated by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

This is because we relied on estimates for our figures using the same methodology as before, when COVID tests were free. 

As you can see in the graph below, while our trends of COVID cases were mirrored by those of the ONS, the ZOE Health Study estimates were consistently higher toward the second half of 2022.

DJ...rebalancing-in combination with open communication-is only wise ! I think ZOE still will be a great help in getting a realistic view on CoViD in the UK (wich may tell us more on CoViD-worldwide...). 








Aside from chronically infected patients, plenty of SARS-CoV2 animal reservoirs by the looks of it that could enable old variant lineages to make a return once the immunity landscape has changed enough... Here SARS-CoV2 lineages detected in New York deer.

A link[url]https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2215067120[/url] or https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2215067120 ;

Significance

This comprehensive cross-sectional study demonstrates widespread infection of WTD with SARS-CoV-2 across the State of New York. We showed cocirculation of three major SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs; Alpha, Delta, and Gamma) in this species, long after their last detection in humans. Interestingly, the viral sequences recovered from WTD were highly divergent from SARS-CoV-2 sequences recovered from humans, suggesting rapid adaptation of the virus in WTD. The impact of these mutations on the transmissibility of the virus between WTD and from WTD to humans remains to be determined. Together, our findings indicate that WTD—the most abundant large mammal in North America—may serve as a reservoir for variant SARS-CoV-2 strains that no longer circulate in the human population.

DJ Also [url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/02/pnas-white-tailed-deer-as-wildlife.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/02/pnas-white-tailed-deer-as-wildlife.html discussing the risks;

With SARS-CoV-2 and HPAI H5N1 - along with other zoonotic viruses like MERS-COV, H5N6H3N8EA H1N1 `G4',  and Nipah etc. - all conducting unsupervised field experiments in mammals around the world, it is becoming increasingly difficult to know where to focus our attention. 

Traditional reservoir host species, like pigs and poultry, have recently been augmented by a number of other potential hosts - including marine mammals, companion animals (dogs and cats), rodents, and White-tailed deer. 

The concern being that these zoonotic viruses could follow divergent evolutionary paths in non-human hosts - producing new and potentially more dangerous variants - which could eventually `spill back' into humans.

For that matter limiting contacts between wild animals and humans (+pets) would reduce risks...

In addition to White-Tailed Deer, a recent study (see Preprint: Wildlife Exposure to SARS-CoV-2 Across a Human Use Gradientfound evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection across a wide variety of small peridomestic mammals (e.g. possums, skunks, squirrels, etc.) in Virginia. 

With SARS-CoV-2 circulating and evolving in multiple mammalian hosts, the opportunities for future spillover events has almost certainly increased. The risks were summed up nicely last month in The Lancet Microbe: Ecology of SARS-CoV-2 in the Post-Pandemic Era, where the authors wrote:

The above discussion suggests that the ecology of SARS-CoV-2 could be more complex than for other zoonotic viruses (appendix). Infections in humans would facilitate frequent human–animal transmissions. Then, the virus could experience sustained evolution with adaptation to multiple species of animals that results in antigenicity changes before subsequent reverse transmission to humans. This would make disease control more difficult. Therefore, characterisation of SARS-CoV-2 ecology and greater levels of surveillance for infections in animals, especially pets, zoo animals, and urban and suburban wildlife, are imperative in the post-pandemic era.

While we may be headed towards the end of the declared COVID pandemic, the virus could still have some surprises in store. 

DJ, In the US "politics" want to claim "CoViD is over"....denialism, political insanity, is the major problem ! 

End of part 1...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2023 at 9:42pm

DJ...I should stop the "part 1-thing" -most of the time there is no (direct) part 2...Yesterday I started the H5N1-latest news-animal-item....

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwxKPLEuE5I[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwxKPLEuE5I indie_SAGE; LIVE: Join us for a dedicated Public Q&A session on all things Covid; mitigation, vaccines, long Covid, immunity, variants, pressure on healthcare & more. With Prof Anthony Costello as chair & Dr Kit Yates on numbers. Help us keep Independent SAGE running: https://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/p/help-...

Chapters 

 00:04 Intro: Prof Anthony Costello 

02:12 Stats: Dr Kit Yates 

16:00 Questions from the public  

16:16 Vaccines: will our immune systems cope with more boosters year on year? 

26:03 What should we expect from a checkup after Covid infection? 

37:34 Are there any studies looking at Post Covid syndrome and comparisons with other viral conditions? 

44:55 Does exposure but not infection affect you're future immune response? 

46:35 Repeat infections and any affects on our immune system? 

48:50 Is a dangerous variant a possibility from China? 

51:06 Patients with different infections in the same ward: is this a dangerous scenario if a worse variant comes along? 

53:35 Should we be concerned about unequal ventilation in different parts of a room? 

54:20 What can we do about disadvantaged communities and their lower levels of vaccination? 

01:00:48 conclusion and close

DJ...Very good info...! indie_SAGE (iS)-due to time limits-has to move "back" to once every two weeks

iS mentioned also [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data reviewing their data...DJ-It is always go to check-from time to time-if your info still has any value...(It could save a lot of time if "media" did more "qc" quality control...)

Both hospital cases and ZOE indicate UK cases slowly increasing...again...

DJ-Since respitory illnesses are increasing I think it could be wise to underline even more the need for;

-ventilation !!! Lower the viral-load in classrooms, offices etc.. Opening a window before working hours may already make a difference..

-masks...in public transport busy places, care centers/hospitals do lower risks...

-a legal right to work/study from home is decreasing risks...(also means less traffic jams !)

-UV-C technique may kill virusses in a space...

DJ-iS mentioned there is limited study on people with CoViD more likely to catch the flu v.v. . In hospitals trying to get enough beds already is a major job...keeping different infections seperate in practice is not always possible...

Viral infections -in general !!!- may decrease (sorts of) immunity for some time. However this flu-season may indicate in general immunity in groups to (still) be strong enough to "self limit" the flu...In some "long/chronic CoViD cases" there may be long term immunity issues...in other cases/hosts there is not...

When large groups of people -millions- get infected (not only in China, DJ-Japan, South Korea...but for that matter lots of countries) there is a risk of new variants showing up...DJ-We are in the middle of a very "dynamic" variant soup....

Also on vaccines we may have to learn a lot still...what vaccine to be used for wich group when ? If there are long term risks in (mRNA) vaccines you have to balance that with NOT going for vaccines at all...DJ-The general view is vaccines saved millions of lives...(DJ-Also non-mRNA vaccines may have saved a lot of lives !)

Maybe the most important basic idea promoted by iS is to take people serious...Respect should be the basis for contact ! In that way "politics" DJ failed...dealing with people as if they were children...If you -as government- do not offer some sort of vaccination/sick leave to get people vaccinated then you do neither take the problem and the people serious...

A lot of people can not afford to take hours off to get a vaccine...run the risks of feeling less then 100% for some days after vaccination...DJ-Again ! Vaccination IS medical intervention ! If you want people to run certain risks you need to have a "social system" enabling to run that kind of risks...Sick leave-a basic income-is keeping a society going !

DJ-Again...the H5N1 story...H5N1 increasingly detected in mammals should not be a major surprise...If record numbers of birds have H5N1 it will cause a record number of wild animals getting in contact with the virus ! So-maybe the major problem is H5N1 did find a way to spread much better-all year round-in birds...

There may be -limited so far- mutations resulting in increase of spread from birds to mammals...But again-so far only minks did show spread from mammal to mammal (and could be a risk for farm workers, farm-cats/dogs...). 

H5N1 in the "case-case-cluster-cluster-boom" escalation ladder still is in the "case phase"! However it should not be "communicated" as "low risk"...H5N1 is a potential worse risk then CoViD !!!

There should be an alarm-line/adress for reporting dead birds in every country !

Keep pets away from dead birds...

DJ-The "strategy" for keeping CoViD numbers low also works for limiting H5N1-spread...

Maybe a final note...vaccines only can be a part of the strategy ! If vaccines result in virusses evading immunity vaccines could become not "the best part" of the strategy...Non Pharma Interventions can do much more...Masks have been used-in some form-for hundreds of years...(so I will not even discuss masks doing a good job !). 

Maybe more later on...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 05 2023 at 11:22pm

February 6 -very major earthquake (M7.8) in Türkiye/Syria border area - likely killing over 10,000 people while they were sleeping...

DJ, 

Maybe time to look back somewhat...

I did expect we would be in a worse global healthcrisis then we are in...I did expect opening schools, workplaces after christmas/new year mass spread events would bring a (repeat of) high numbers in january...Well - it did not ! I was wrong there !

UK-and many other countries faced a hospital/healthcare crisis end of 2022...did see pressure on care going down in january...Very welcome ! 

But my question is why ????

-The XBB.1.5 variant gained dominance but did not cause a lot of (severe - short term) symptoms...So maybe we did see a lot of CoViD spread in january but - due to lack of testing- missed it. Waste water samples in some areas may point to that direction...

-A more welcome view -hope it is also a correct one- could be vaccines/previous infections created some immunity....Maybe it is a factor...indications (studies) are that immunity protection may not last that long...[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data indicating UK at the start of its first 2023 CoViD wave...

-Another issue is "flu"...lots of flu-cases...did they all see testing for CoViD as well...or "had it to be flu because CoViD is over"? 

DJ...I would love to see this pandemic as history...For me maybe if by summer we would be in months of only limited-mild-cases worldwide I could start believing it...

East Asia, Australia are in a very bad CoViD wave...Also limited info from Latin America, Africa may indicate this "optimism" may be based on US-UK-EU indicators...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-what-s-going-on-in-australia-death-rates-are-still-high-and-no-one-is-talking-about-the-xbf-and-br-2-variants-in-circulation-there[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-what-s-going-on-in-australia-death-rates-are-still-high-and-no-one-is-talking-about-the-xbf-and-br-2-variants-in-circulation-there TMN, lots of good info/links (even when the writer is showing to much emotion in the writing...).

A major good point is; (DJ-my words)

-short term/long term damage; it may be to early to call XBB.1.5 "mild"

-Some variants "duty" is to spread as much as possible - evade immunity

-fusogenecity -ability to spread from cell to cell in a host is also a major matter

TMN also mentions over 1,800 Australian CoViD deaths so far in 2023....lots of Oceania/East Asia variants only now showing up in the west...DJ-low testing is low sequencing...waste water samples may provide some info on what variants now are spreading...

So -DJ- maybe I am most surprised on healthcare NOT collapsing in january...but my "view" is the pandemic is (very) far from over...

More a.o. on H5N1 in part 2


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Part 2.








Let me put H5N1 in perspective in terms of COVID. H5N1 is what I have been speaking about for years. It would be >100x worse than COVID assuming it maintains the mortality levels we have seen with it historically. In other terms, 1 billion deaths.

and

"The real H5N1 case fatality rate should be closer to 14-33%"

link [url]https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18477756/[/url] or https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18477756/ (june 2008 study)

DJ pandemic triangle = disease-transport-host

Healthcare capacity has eroded in most countries. Often over 10% of HCW-ers are long term ill, many others went to jobs with lower risks, better pay and working hours...Neo-liberal ideology has lots of governments destroying the public sector...

I include sequencing, testing, sampling in "public healthcare"...if you are not willing to invest in monitoring, early warning...If you even manage to ignore a Wuhan over 3 years ago lockdown...then NOT spending enough on public health becomes asking for pandemics....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-scientific-studies-including-seasonal-novel-flu/968120-zoonotic-avian-influenza-viruses-evade-human-btn3a3-restriction-biorxiv-preprint[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-scientific-studies-including-seasonal-novel-flu/968120-zoonotic-avian-influenza-viruses-evade-human-btn3a3-restriction-biorxiv-preprint ;

Abstract

Cross-species transmission of avian influenza A viruses (IAVs) into humans could represent the first step of a future pandemic1.

 Multiple factors limiting the spillover and adaptation of avian IAVs in humans have been identified, but they are not sufficient to explain which virus lineages are more likely to cross the species barrier1,2. Here, we identified human BTN3A33 (butyrophilin subfamily 3 member A3) as a potent inhibitor of avian but not human IAVs. 

We determined that BTN3A3 is constitutively expressed in human airways and its antiviral activity evolved in primates. 

We show that BTN3A3 restriction acts at the early stages of virus replication by inhibiting avian IAV vRNA transcription. 

We identified residue 313 in the viral nucleoprotein (NP) as the genetic determinant of BTN3A3 sensitivity (313F, or rarely 313L in avian viruses) or evasion (313Y or 313V in human viruses). 

However, several serotypes of avian IAVs that spilled over into humans in recent decades evade BTN3A3 restriction.

 In these cases, BTN3A3 evasion is due to substitutions (N, H or Q) in NP residue 52 that is adjacent to residue 313 in the NP structure4

Importantly, we identified more than 150 avian IAV lineages with a BTN3A3-resistant genotype.

 In conclusion, sensitivity or resistance to BTN3A3 is another factor to consider in the risk assessment of the zoonotic potential of avian influenza viruses.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...196v1.full.pdf

DJ...over 8 billion humans "have to be very interesting" for all kinds of viral diseases to "take over the planet"....

---------------

Upgrading PPE for staff working on COVID-19 wards cut hospital-acquired infections dramatically

-








When Addenbrooke’s Hospital upgraded its face masks for staff working on COVID-19 wards to filtering face piece 3 (FFP3) respirators, it saw a dramatic fall – up to 100% – in hospital-acquired SARS-CoV-2 infections among these staff.


DJ, ventilation and masks lower risks....Even in care-settings still NOT the norm (maybe a personal view; to much energy gone in fighting over vaccines...on the long run ventilation/masks/work-study from home could have saved more lives !).

Long/chronic CoViD;








For example, we have shown how today’s job #market is still missing more than 730,000 #jobs according to what trend levels would suggest in nursing and residential care and accommodations industries.

and








In case you missed it: The US unemployment rate hit an ultra-low 3.4%. To find a water mark lower than that, you'd have to go all the way back to 1953. https://axios.com/newsletters/axios-macro-2d258497-a418-44c4-90e9-46d08d12ea85.html?chunk=0&utm_term=twsocialshare#story0

DJ, shortages (for now) on the job -market push up salaries and with that -already high- inflation. Since interest rates also go up CoViD now spreading to the housing market....








To those intent on psychologising #LongCovid & #MECFS because ‘there is no biomarker’- let me tell you something as a senior Dr. Many diseases don’t have biomarkers & diagnosis is clinical. Take asthma for example. Symptoms vary between patients. 1/n

DJ;

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breakin

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DJ, february 8,

Yesterday [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table showed Europe, South America would have an increase of cases...Today South America cases +2%, deaths -2%...since most countries stopped daily updates on new cases these kind of statistics-at best- may provide some indication. 

Sweden "reporting an increase of 100%"; 1 case this week-no cases last week Sweden claims...Do not test-do not tell - denial as a (lack of) strategy ...sick !

Poland cases +66%, Moldova +51%, Czechia +43% and for that matter Russia +34% may indicate a war/Ukraine linked spread....58 countries reporting an increase of cases. 

Ukraine "has 0 cases this week", Türkiye is not even in the list....

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data UK moving towards 1 million "active cases" based on self-reporting (and calculations balanced with ONS data). February 6 would have 88,450 new cases...Worldometers only can report UK cases "-75%"...788 UK deaths last week, 207 UK deaths last 7 days..."living with the virus"....

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/sars-cov-2-variants-updates-new-more-immune-evasive-and-transmissible-xbb-1-9-1-variant-spreads-in-indonesia,-south-east-asia-and-europe[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/sars-cov-2-variants-updates-new-more-immune-evasive-and-transmissible-xbb-1-9-1-variant-spreads-in-indonesia,-south-east-asia-and-europe 

maybe some "politician/expert for sale" can tell the virus they are retired....TMN also warning (top bar) august 2023 we will be in a "twindemic" of CoViD AND H5N1...It would be welcome if they provided more info on that view...

DJ-The total lack of any government action in stopping diseases may result in a healthcrisis unseen in hundreds of years...But "politics may escalate wars to stop it"....








H5N1 bird flu kills 3 sea lions and a dolphin in Peru

DJ, In latest news I try to follow some reports on H5N1 in mammals...In some countries Zoo's feed lions, tigers, infected chicken...It is also very likely H5N1 could be spreading in mink-farms...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-study-reports-first-molecular-detection-of-sars-cov-2-coronavirus-in-cockroaches-with-worrisome-implications[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-covid-19-news-study-reports-first-molecular-detection-of-sars-cov-2-coronavirus-in-cockroaches-with-worrisome-implications ....

A link to [url]https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11756-023-01332-7[/url] or https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11756-023-01332-7 ;

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 by the RT-qPCR assay was considered from a total of 500 cockroaches (250 B. germanica, 250 P. americana) (Table 1). The presence of the virus was confirmed using external body samples and gastrointestinal tract samples.

DJ...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cockroach#Hardiness[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cockroach#Hardiness ;

Cockroaches are among the hardiest insects. Some species are capable of remaining active for a month without food and are able to survive on limited resources, such as the glue from the back of postage stamps.[62] Some can go without air for 45 minutes. Japanese cockroach (Periplaneta japonicanymphs, which hibernate in cold winters, have survived twelve hours at −5 to −8 °C (23 to 18 °F) in laboratory experiments.[63]

Experiments on decapitated specimens of several species of cockroach found a variety of behavioral functionality remained, including shock avoidance and escape behavior, although many insects other than cockroaches are also able to survive decapitation, and popular claims of the longevity of headless cockroaches do not appear to be based on published research.[64][65] The severed head is able to survive and wave its antennae for several hours, or longer when refrigerated and given nutrients.[65]

It is popularly suggested that cockroaches will "inherit the earth" if humanity destroys itself in a nuclear war. While cockroaches do, indeed, have a much higher radiation resistance than vertebrates, with a lethal dose perhaps six to 15 times that for humans, they are not exceptionally radiation-resistant compared to other insects, such as the fruit fly.[66]

The cockroach's ability to withstand radiation has been explained through the cell cycle. Cells are most vulnerable to the effects of radiation while they are dividing. A cockroach's cells divide only once each molting cycle (which is weekly, for the juvenile German cockroach[67]). Since not all cockroaches would be molting at the same time, many would be unaffected by an acute burst of radiation, although lingering and more acute radiation would still be harmful.[59]

So CoViD may now be spreading via insects ????

...Time for a very strong coffee !!!

Maybe other news; The Middle East earthquake could see 20,000 to 25,000 deaths ? Good news is a lot of resque efforts may be in time to save lives...Bad news is 28 million people live in the hit Türkiye-Syria area...So 0,1% around that % may have died...Millions will be homeless...

US-China relations are "just above active war"...Russia is kicking Ukraine out of the east of Ukraine...The total number of Ukraine deaths may be over 250,000....Ukraine now also going for 16 y/o+ boys...Live expectency for untrained soldiers on the frontlines could be 4 hours....

Ukraine keeps shelling the Russian-speaking eastern part of Ukraine (claimed by Russia) - killing dozens of citizens per day with NATO supplied weapons...Israel killing over 1 Palestinian per day...

Coffee !


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 08 2023 at 3:06am

Some more issues; 

From New Atlas [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lt0iLMoG7XU&t=961s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lt0iLMoG7XU&t=961s ;

[url]https://www.adl.org/resources/hate-symbol/1488[/url] or https://www.adl.org/resources/hate-symbol/1488 ;

1488 is a combination of two popular white supremacist numeric symbols. The first symbol is 14, which is shorthand for the "14 Words" slogan: "We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children." The second is 88, which stands for "Heil Hitler" (H being the 8th letter of the alphabet). Together, the numbers form a general endorsement of white supremacy and its beliefs. As such, they are ubiquitous within the white supremacist movement - as graffiti, in graphics and tattoos, even in screen names and e-mail addresses, such as aryanprincess1488@hate.net.  Some white supremacists will even price racist merchandise, such as t-shirts or compact discs, for $14.88.

The symbol is most commonly written as 1488 or 14/88, but variations such as 14-88 or 8814 are also common.

New Atlas ; Germany sending 14 Leopard-2, 88 Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine is also sending a nazi-salut...

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/02/dire-situation-gets-even-more-dire.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/02/dire-situation-gets-even-more-dire.html ;

Conditions are dire

This means that Antarctic sea ice could reach an all-time record low extent later this month, while at the same time Arctic sea ice could be at a record low extent for the time of year.

Furthermore, emissions keep rising, ocean heat and greenhouse gas levels keep rising and extreme weather events are getting ever more extreme. Keep in mind that carbon dioxide reaches its maximum warming some 10 years after emission, so we haven't yet been hit by the full wrath of carbon dixode pollution.  

Furthermore, an earlier analysis concludes that we have already exceeded the 2°C threshold set at the Paris Agreement in 2015. 

These dire conditions spell bad news regarding the temperature rise over the coming years. On top of these dire conditions, there are a number of circumstances, feedbacks and further developments that make the outlook even more dire.

-

 The upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be so high that it will cause much traffic, transport and industrial activity to grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in cooling aerosols that are currently masking the full wrath of global warming.

Falling away of this aerosol masking effect could cause a huge temperature rise, while there could be an additional temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires.


A huge temperature rise could therefore unfold soon, causing the clouds tipping point to be crossed that on its own could result in further rise of 8°C. Meanwhile, humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.

DJ...If indeed the healthcrisis also is "out of control"; CoViD and H5N1 likely could become "major" soon "politics" has failed...

As always...hope to be very wrong...

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DJ, February 9, 

-A complex story does NOT fit in twitter-few sentences...There may be a "generation" unable to deal with complex stories...Internet/"smart" phones can push us to tunnelviews biased opinions..."Following what others do" "herd-views"...

So -on CoViD I still go for statistics as indicators;

-ZOE [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data by now showing clearly the UK in the start of another wave...active cases moving towards 1 million...Corrected info had UK at around 785,000-790,000 active-symptomatic-cases end of january...The lowest point in ZOE-statistics starting november 1 -2021...However part of the story could be XBB.1.5 -a major variant- may have spread a lot but often with-at first- no major symptoms...Since ZOE is based on self-reporting of symptoms the low numbers tell something of symptomatic cases NOT of viral spread...

-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table is based on testing & reporting...Since most countries hardly test over a long time the biggest problem is lack of DAILY updates...Countries reporting once/twice a week may give global/regional "false" indications-on the day they report their multi-day numbers "reported cases" increase to go down on days without reporting...

Global cases -19%, deaths -30%...Europe cases -1%, deaths -40%...South America cases +10%, deaths -21%,. Last week almost 1,4 million cases were reported...last 7 days did see just over 1,1 million cases reported...Japan now reporting most cases...

Since there is no agreement on what a "CoViD case" is (only testing positive or also symptomatic=China its view) countries could be reporting different "things/stories"....

Statistics may indicate Ukraine has a CoViD problem...Russia cases +32%, but also countries with lots of Ukraine refugees see (limited) increase of cases...Germany +1%, NL +8%, Poland however +61% ! Austria +19%, Moldova +51%...Baltic states may not be very good at testing...

-EuroMoMo [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps week 5 indicating "moderate excess deaths" in NL and DK (DenmarK), low excess a.o. Scotland , Estonia, Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal...Israel also in this list...

But lots of different excess deaths statistics per country...recent NL media claimed no longer excess deaths in NL...They may use other calculations...Excess deaths can have lots of causes...from heat/cold to diseases...

End of part 1 -statistics...

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Part 2...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/long-covid-news-contrary-to-claims-that-long-covid-resolves-within-a-year,-new-american-review-suggests-that-long-covid-may-last-indefinitely-for-some[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/long-covid-news-contrary-to-claims-that-long-covid-resolves-within-a-year,-new-american-review-suggests-that-long-covid-may-last-indefinitely-for-some 

DJ, like with ME-CFS the story on Long/chronic CoViD may be complex. Infections can leave permanent damage...so permanent healthissues...Also the definition of "Long CoViD" is still not very clear...without any symptoms four weeks after a positive test may simply be unrealistic by now. But six months...do you need to have tested positive ? 

[url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-022-00846-2[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-022-00846-2 as a link/base for TMN story;

Diagnostic tools and treatments

Although diagnostic tools exist for some components of long COVID (for example, tilt table tests for POTS145 and MRI scans to detect cardiovascular impairment68), diagnostic tools for long COVID are mostly in development, including imaging to detect microclots63, corneal microscopy to identify small fibre neuropathy87, new fragmentation of QRS complex on electrocardiograms as indicative of cardiac injury146 and use of hyperpolarized MRI to detect pulmonary gas exchange abnormalities147. On the basis of the tests that are offered as standard care, the results for patients with long COVID are often normal; many providers are unaware of the symptom-specific testing and diagnostic recommendations from the ME/CFS community148. Early research into biomarkers suggests that levels of extracellular vesicles85 and/or immune markers indicating high cytotoxicity149 could be indicative of long COVID. Intriguingly, dogs can identify individuals with long COVID on the basis of sweat samples150. Biomarker research in ME/CFS may also be applicable to long COVID, including electrical impedance blood tests, saliva tests, erythrocyte deformation, sex-specific plasma lipid profiles and variables related to isocapnic buffering151,152,153,154. The importance of developing and validating biomarkers that can be used for the diagnosis of long COVID cannot be adequately emphasized — they will not only be helpful in establishing the diagnosis but will also be helpful for objectively defining treatment responses.

Good it is taken serious !

-H5N1 [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/h5n1-avian-flu-news-preparing-for-an-imminent-outbreak-what-prophylactics,-drugs-and-supplements-work-part-1[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/h5n1-avian-flu-news-preparing-for-an-imminent-outbreak-what-prophylactics,-drugs-and-supplements-work-part-1 TMN claiming we are at the start of a H5N1 outbreak in humans...in latest news I try to follow H5N1 in mammals...The article has many links...[url]https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa044021[/url] or https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa044021

BACKGROUND

During 2004, a highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus caused poultry disease in eight Asian countries and infected at least 44 persons, killing 32; most of these persons had had close contact with poultry. No evidence of efficient person-to-person transmission has yet been reported. We investigated possible person-to-person transmission in a family cluster of the disease in Thailand.

-

RESULTS

The index patient became ill three to four days after her last exposure to dying household chickens. Her mother came from a distant city to care for her in the hospital, had no recognized exposure to poultry, and died from pneumonia after providing 16 to 18 hours of unprotected nursing care. The aunt also provided unprotected nursing care; she had fever five days after the mother first had fever, followed by pneumonia seven days later. Autopsy tissue from the mother and nasopharyngeal and throat swabs from the aunt were positive for influenza A (H5N1) by RT-PCR. No additional chains of transmission were identified, and sequencing of the viral genes identified no change in the receptor-binding site of hemagglutinin or other key features of the virus. The sequences of all eight viral gene segments clustered closely with other H5N1 sequences from recent avian isolates in Thailand.

DJ, on top of this 2004 story also spread in mammals (mink-spain, sea-lion in Peru [url]https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/peru-confirms-h5n1-avian-flu-marine-mammals-part-southward-spread[/url] or https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/peru-confirms-h5n1-avian-flu-marine-mammals-part-southward-spread indicate increase of spread between mammals...

So far as good as all H5N1-cases in humans are spread from infected birds (most cases...some maybe from mammal to human..)..point of discussion is will H5N1 be able to develop towards increase of H2H/Human-to-human spread ? So far-in fact-NO indications for that...mammal-to-mammal spread however could indicate this is a matter of time...

[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2023/01/articles/animals/cats/h5n1-avian-influenza-in-a-cat-france/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2023/01/articles/animals/cats/h5n1-avian-influenza-in-a-cat-france/ H5N1 in (big) cats also should be seen as a worry...

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/02/russian-seal-mass-mortality-event.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/02/russian-seal-mass-mortality-event.html ;

Two weeks ago, in Russia: Mass Mortality Event (Seals) In Caspian Sea Linked To Avian Flu we looked at the mass die off of (reportedly) 2,500 seals last December, and a report from Dagestan State University stating that an (as yet unsubtyped) avian influenza A virus was detected in the carcasses of the seals they tested.

While H5N1 was not confirmed, it was mentioned in their statement as a likely cause. 

A little over a week ago Russia's Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzorannounced they were unable to confirm those test results, and have asked the Dagestan State University to provide biological samples of what they tested. 

Since then, Russian media has been filled with conflicting reports and opinion pieces on the cause of this mass mortality event. 

Some are blaming illegal and/or poorly run landfills, which have allegedly polluted the waters of the Caspian sea, and have allowed seagulls to feed on the carcasses of dead animals

DJ...bird-droppings end up in water and via that route may spread H5N1....

Since H5N1 is now that widespread I think we should expect more H5N1 cases in humans...For now however "lots of indications" for bird-to-human (indirect) spread...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/introduction-to-pandemic-influenza/h5n1-history-statistics-charts-summaries/968270-avian-influenza-a-virus-polymerase-can-utilize-human-anp32-proteins-to-support-crna-but-not-vrna-synthesis-asm-journals[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/introduction-to-pandemic-influenza/h5n1-history-statistics-charts-summaries/968270-avian-influenza-a-virus-polymerase-can-utilize-human-anp32-proteins-to-support-crna-but-not-vrna-synthesis-asm-journals ;

ABSTRACT

Host restriction limits the emergence of novel pandemic strains from the influenza A virus avian reservoir. For efficient replication in mammalian cells, the avian influenza RNA-dependent RNA polymerase must adapt to use human orthologues of the host factor ANP32, which lack a 33-amino-acid insertion relative to avian ANP32A. Here, we find that influenza polymerase requires ANP32 proteins to support both steps of genome replication: cRNA and vRNA synthesis. However, avian strains are only restricted in vRNA synthesis in human cells. Therefore, avian influenza polymerase can use human ANP32 orthologues to support cRNA synthesis, without acquiring mammalian adaptations. This implies a fundamental difference in the mechanism by which ANP32 proteins support cRNA versus vRNA synthesis.

https://journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/mbio.03399-22

Running out of time....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2023 at 1:54am

february 12, 

DJ, multiple crises in multiple countries; Ukraine, Türkiye/Syria, Peru...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-outbreak-news-international-experts-and-epidemiologists-should-keep-a-close-watch-on-disease-outbreak-developments-taking-place-in-peru[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-outbreak-news-international-experts-and-epidemiologists-should-keep-a-close-watch-on-disease-outbreak-developments-taking-place-in-peru from M-pox to H5N1...CoViD, measles....very limited public healthcare in Peru...

Statistics [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data indicate UK in another CoViD wave...

Russia [url]https://tass.com/world/1575125[/url] or https://tass.com/world/1575125 ;

MOSCOW, February 11. /TASS/. Russia’s COVID-19 case tally rose by 12,845 over the past day to 22,060,370, the anti-coronavirus crisis center reported on Saturday.

As many as 1,391 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 in Russia over the past day, a 2.4% increase from the previous day. The number of hospitalized patients rose in 41 regions, while in 35 other regions the figure increased. A day earlier, 1,358 people were rushed to hospitals.

Moscow’s COVID-19 cases surged by 3,043 over the past day, versus 2,952 a day earlier, reaching 3,376,326 since the onset of the pandemic, according to the anti-coronavirus crisis center. St. Petersburg’s COVID-19 cases increased by 1,311 over the past day versus 1,224 a day earlier, reaching 1,856,160.

COVID-19 recoveries

Russia’s COVID-19 recoveries rose by 8,258 over the past day, reaching 21,425,889, the anti-coronavirus crisis center told reporters.

COVID-19 death toll


Russia’s COVID-19 death toll surged by 37 over the past day to 395,520. A day earlier, 37 COVID-19 deaths were registered.

at least has some reporting left....[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table for Russia using the same numbers...

US has 3,405 deaths linked to CoViD per million, Russia has 2,713...Peru at 6,509 CoViD deaths per million...so 0,6509% of the Peru population died from CoViD....








As many as 1 in 10 Coloradans may have been hit by long COVID

DJ Long CoViD however is becoming a very major problem....

46% of Covid patients have liver damage: Study | Mumbai News - Times of India

Likely a long lasting problem...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table 

Europe cases now +26%, South America -1%...Ukraine reported cases +191%, Moldova +51%, Poland +41%, Russia +31%...Ukraine CoViD-deaths +278% from 18 last week to 68 last 7 days..

[url]https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/02/11/rqyc-f11.html[/url] or https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/02/11/rqyc-f11.html ;

After providing the public in the US and across the world three years of vital day to day information on the status of the COVID pandemic, Johns Hopkins University announced yesterday that they were retiring their highly acclaimed and well-appreciated Coronavirus Resource Center on March 10, 2023. Indeed, the end of this invaluable resource has significant implications for the present and for future pandemics.

DJ...statistics are the basis for getting some view on events...

[url]https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2023/02/12/698070/Turkey-Syria-quake-deaths-to-cross-more-than-double-mark-UN-aid-chief[/url] or https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2023/02/12/698070/Turkey-Syria-quake-deaths-to-cross-more-than-double-mark-UN-aid-chief

The death toll from the calamitous earthquake in Turkey and Syria will "double or more" from its current level which has neared 30 thousand, the United Nations emergency relief coordinator has warned.

"I think it is difficult to estimate precisely as we need to get under the rubble, but I'm sure it will double or more,” Martin Griffiths said.

DJ...avoiding a public health disaster on top of the earthquake will be a main challenge...The "rebel-held" part of Syria may be high risk. Population around 4,5 million-several "groups of rebels" (pro-Turkish, renamed-IS etc) is not recieving much help either from Türkiye or Syria...infra structure may be a main problem...

Ukraine is another high risk zone...Russian attacks destroyed logistics...DJ-multi resistant TB was a known problem in Ukraine...Public health must be in crisis...

Yaneer Bar-Yam @yaneerbaryam@forall.social
@yaneerbaryam

Complex Systems Physicist | President of  | coFounder  http://whn.global | Mastodon @yaneerbaryam@forall.social

DJ...the global health situation is getting "very complex"....








Delta ain't dead, not by a long shot. Three Deltas collected in 2023 have been uploaded in the past two days, the private mutations of which are pictured below. There are undoubtedly tens of thousands of other Deltas still infecting the bodies of people around the world.

On H5N1 the picture is also "complex"...most spread in mammals seem to be linked to birds...Human-to-human spread is "very limited" (Thailand, Indonesia etc...) DJ-however since H5N1 sometimes only seems to be mild we may miss some of the spread in humans and (other) animals...

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/02/why-we-need-culture-of-preparedness.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/02/why-we-need-culture-of-preparedness.html ;

Despite all of these past events, and the certainty that more will follow, according to FEMA's 2021 Household Survey on Preparednessonly 59% of households took 3 or more (of 12 recommended) preparedness steps in 2021.

DJ link to [url]https://fema-community-files.s3.amazonaws.com/2021-National-Household-Survey.pdf[/url] or https://fema-community-files.s3.amazonaws.com/2021-National-Household-Survey.pdf 

Disaster/crisis management IS communications ! But it is becoming a very complex story....

Focus on (DJ-my view) basic needs; water, food, shelter may help....What may change however is "communications" when outcome of contact only brings bad news....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2023 at 10:24pm

DJ, monday february 13

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/02/will-steffen-the-dilemma-of-pioneer-climate-scientists.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/02/will-steffen-the-dilemma-of-pioneer-climate-scientists.html ; “For all practical purposes i.e., timescales that humans can relate to, the levels of climate change we are driving towards now will be with us for thousands of years at least. The PETM (Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum) might be an appropriate analogue - a rapid spike in CO₂ concentration and temperature followed by the drawdown of CO₂ over 100,000 to 200,000 years. For all practical purposes, that time for recovery is so long (in human time scales) that it could be considered irreversible. Of course, extinctions are irreversible. So when the twin pressures of climate change and direct human degradation are applied to the biosphere, the resulting mass extinction event, that we have already entered, is of course irreversible.”

Nowadays in many forums climate scientists are replaced by economists, vested interests, marketing agents, sociologists and politicians, with only a vague idea of the basic laws of physics and the atmosphere.


[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-war-terror-rogue-superpower-cui-bono[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-war-terror-rogue-superpower-cui-bono ;

Surveying the chessboard, what the Kremlin and the Security Council see is Merkel confessing Minsk 2 was merely a ruse; the imperial attack on the Nord Streams (they got the picture, but might not have all the insider details provided by Hersh’s source); former Israeli PM Bennett on the record detailing how the Anglo-Americans killed the Ukraine peace process which was on track in Istanbul last year.

So it’s no wonder that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has made it clear that when it comes to nuclear negotiations with the Americans, any proposed gestures of goodwill are “unjustified, untimely and uncalled for.”

The Ministry, on purpose, and somewhat ominously, was very vague on a key issue: “strategic nuclear forces objects” that have been attacked by Kiev – helped by the Americans. These attacks may have involved “military-technical and information-intelligence” aspects.

When it comes to the Global South, what the Hersh report imprints is Rogue Superpower, in giant blood red letters, as state sponsor of terrorism: the ritual burial – at the bottom of the Baltic Sea – of international law, and even the Empire’s tawdry ersatz, the “rules-based international order”.

It will take some time to fully identify which Deep State faction may have used Hersh to promote its agenda. Of course he’s aware of it – but that would never have been enough to keep him away from researching a bombshell (three months of hard work). The U.S. mainstream media will do everything to suppress, censor, demean and ignore his report; but what matters is that across the Global South it is already spreading like wildfire.

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Lavrov has gone totally unplugged, much like Medvedev, denouncing how the U.S. has “unleashed a total hybrid war” against Russia, with both nuclear powers now on a path of direct confrontation. And as Washington has declared the “strategic defeat” of Russia as its goal and turned bilateral relations into a ball of fire, there can be no “business as usual” anymore.

The Russian “response” – even before Hersh’s report – has been on another level entirely; advanced de-dollarization across the spectrum, from the EAEU to BRICS and beyond; and total reorientation of trade towards Eurasia and other parts of the Global South. Russia is establishing firm conditions for further stability, already foreseeing the inevitable: the time to frontally deal with NATO.

As kinetic responses go, facts on the battleground show Russia further crushing the American/NATO proxy army in full Strategic Ambiguity mode. The terror attack on the Nord Streams of course will always be lurking in the background. There will be blowback. But that will be at a time, manner and place of Russia’s choosing.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNT-YNLhprw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNT-YNLhprw dr. john campbell; excess deaths remain (very) high in most places..

DJ, dr.j.c. is terrible in statistics....(putting all this numbers-with not all the same last date-some are still 2022 numbers is not science...) excess deaths are -indeed- simply much to high...

There are many factors at play...climate collapse, health crises are two major ones...aging is another aspect...Most western countries NEVER had such an old population before so excess deaths will increase when you do not correct for aging...You also need long term trends not "week numbers"....

The Middle East earthquake could end up with 100,000+ deaths...at least part of it is linked to a war in Syria and Iraq...Western media love to claim it are "civil wars" no NATO role in it...

So...maybe my basic point is we have to change how we-the "rich" (countries)- live or "how we live is how we die".....most of the damage is done by a very small group..

Printing more money, loads of empty words by "experts for sale" is getting in the way of real solutions....

It is time to make a plan that can make humans survive....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2023 at 11:35pm

february 14, 

Besides training my English (Dutch my native language) making up my mind on the pandemics and "related events" (wars, disasters) -getting some perspective- is my goal on this forum...

Governments denying the problems; "living with the virus" or "pandemic is over" complicate getting info...Since the pandemic is NOT over, UK had 60,000 excess deaths in 2022, "long CoViD' now the most widespread of CoViD economic damage is increasing. 

DJ-I see parallels with climate collapse-also partly denied, partly "solved" by empty words...

Since we also now see a shift in global power-away from the "west" to "Asia"we also have an increase of conflicts..."Never waste a good crisis" is seeing the earthquake disaster in Syria/Türkiye being used for political reasons...(The US promoting protests so they can get more US puppets in Ankara, Damascus...)..

The Ukraine NATO-expansion war is now going on for almost a year...number of deaths there in the hundreds of thousends...Both Türkiye/Syria and Ukraine confronted with a worsening healthcrisis...

So...in monthly updates I try to follow the ongoing healthcrisis...in-latest news "Code Red" I put war news...Balloons, Earthquakes end up in between...

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data and [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table point to increase of CoViD-cases in the UK/Europe...also hospital cases increasing...

Let me start close to home...NL CoViD statistics from [url]https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/ziekenhuizen-en-zorg[/url] or https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/ziekenhuizen-en-zorg hospitalbeds+CoViD 325 +3 21 on ICU +1 compared to day before...R0 in NL now at 1,16 +0,05 (R0 based on numbers end of january)...BQ.1 most common but decreasing...BA.2.75 and XBB.1.5 are increasing in NL...

Via (NL) [url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma I end up with [url]https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1135877/variant-technical-briefing-50-10-february-2023.pdf[/url] or https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1135877/variant-technical-briefing-50-10-february-2023.pdf ;

Vaccine effectiveness Neutralisation data suggest that vaccine effectiveness (VE) may be further reduced for CH.1.1 and XBB.1.5 when compared to BQ.1. Analyses of incremental VE against hospitalisation have been run but sequenced hospitalised case numbers remain too low for robust estimates. Current central estimates for CH.1.1. are lower than for BQ.1 but have a high level of uncertainty; there is insufficient data to estimate VE against XBB.1.5.

DJ...with hardly any testing left -still flu, other infections around- it may be hard to learn what infections is/are doing what...








That's 1,132,717 ongoing cases. New waves are roughly every 6 weeks now.


Image
Quote Tweet







Ted Brautigan

@T_Brautigan
·
Zoe cases 101.2k (or about 190k in old money) up 19% on last week.

DJ...ZOE is following self-reported CoViD-like symptoms...so when other-CoViD like symptomatic diseases increase ZOE may indicate UK-CoViD cases increase...A-symptomatic spread of CoViD may result in UK ZOE statistics decreasing...To get a balanced view one needs to compare these numbers with statistics a.o. on flu...

End of part 1 focussing on CoViD-like symptoms in NW Europe (somewhat...) 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 15 2023 at 1:36am

part 2 wednesday february 15....

CoViD is NOT over....In NL PCR-testing may stop "because of the costs" while cases are already increasing here and "carnaval" is celebretad this weekend without CoViD restrictions...This may repeat the start of CoViD spread in parts of Europe just 3 years ago...Only this time "politics" look away...

A lot of tax money again destroyed in insane wars...NOT used to make this planet safer but even more unsafe...

[url]https://rageagainstwar.com/#Invitation[/url] or https://rageagainstwar.com/#Invitation in the US demonstrations against the war machine this weekend...

[url]https://www.change.org/p/manifestfuerfrieden-aufstandfuerfrieden?redirect=false[/url] or https://www.change.org/p/manifestfuerfrieden-aufstandfuerfrieden?redirect=false in Germany a petition to start talking and stop fighting...

One can discuss the goal of this forum. "Prepare" means sharing info..views...if you can avoid, limit risks that may be the wiser action...

"Pandemic Talk" should be about how (public)  money is spent...Should vaccines, medication be "for profit" ? Even in a global health crisis ? Why do we-in the middle of this healthcrisis-see the west sending trillions to Ukraine prolonging a provoked war ? 

[url]https://tass.com/society/1574211[/url] or https://tass.com/society/1574211 ;

BEIJING, February 9. /TASS/. The threat that COVID-19 poses to human life is declining as the virus mutates, said Wu Zunyou, chief expert at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

"The overall contagiousness and immune evasion of the virus have grown because it continues to mutate. Meanwhile, its pathogenicity has declined," he pointed out, as cited by the Xinhua news agency.

Wu Zunyou added that the odds of the virus mutating into a more pathogenic strain in the future, similar to its initial variant or the Delta strain, were very low.

On January 8, China’s National Health and Family Planning Commission downgraded COVID-19 from a Class A disease (extremely dangerous) to Class B (requiring strict control measures). The first group particularly includes cholera and plague, while atypical pneumonia, AIDS and viral hepatitis are in the second one. Following the move, the Chinese government significantly eased quarantine restrictions for those entering the country. The authorities also announced the gradual resumption of overseas travel for Chinese citizens.

DJ...So is CoViD a decreasing risk ? Or may it have a lot of surprises still ? Is the main problem Long CoViD [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/long-covid-news-british-study-shows-that-59-percent-of-long-covid-patients-suffer-from-organ-damage-up-to-one-year-after-disease-onset[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/long-covid-news-british-study-shows-that-59-percent-of-long-covid-patients-suffer-from-organ-damage-up-to-one-year-after-disease-onset 

Did CoViD influence human immunity so other diseases M-Pox, Marburg, H5N1 have more chance of spreading ? 

DJ-A basic problem for CoViD is decrease of testing so less sequencing...with by now over 1,000 forms of Omicron...also other variants may still be around in limited numbers...

We have lost sight on the CoViD pandemic...both in number of cases and number of (sub)variants...[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps has low excess deaths in several European countries...also excess deaths numbers compared to pre-pandemic years is "low"...so...

Is the CoViD pandemic now over ? Are we realy in an "endemic phase" with limited risks ? Or should we wait with that conclusion for another three, four months ? 

DJ-At a certain moment the conclusion could be we have had the worst of CoViD...still we may see CoViD showing up-just like H1N1 (Spanish Flu-virus) and "the Plague/Black death" did not go away...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 17 2023 at 1:54am

February 17

So far Marburg in Africa seems limited [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/who-convenes-urgent-meeting-over-marburg-one-worlds-deadliest-viruses[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/who-convenes-urgent-meeting-over-marburg-one-worlds-deadliest-viruses and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Marburg_virus_disease_outbreak_in_Equatorial_Guinea[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Marburg_virus_disease_outbreak_in_Equatorial_Guinea 

CoViD [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data increasing in UK. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table a.o. in the east of Europe/Russia cases also increasing. Very likely linked to the Ukraine war-refugees...What is complicating the statistics;

-hardly any testing left...

-often only once/twice a week reporting of cases (so daily statistics go up on reporting-days...)

-very likely some variants might be missed by LF/at home testing...(also PCR ?) 

Here in NL [url]https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/nederland/artikel/5366008/wintergol-corona-griep-tijdens-carnaval-virologen-zeggen-wees[/url] or https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/nederland/artikel/5366008/wintergol-corona-griep-tijdens-carnaval-virologen-zeggen-wees "Carnaval" [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnival[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnival and "wintersport-vacations" are expected to bring an increase of CoViD, flu etc. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rio_Carnival#Dates[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rio_Carnival#Dates also Latin America should expect infection-diseases to increase...

In NL hospital/IC cases also increase...however in most countries pressure on healthcare is expected to stay limited. [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps week 7. Only Portugal "moderate excess deaths" (4-7% above expected numbers). Spain, Italy, Germany, NL "low excess" (2-4% above norm). 

Looks like XBB.1.5 has passed CH.1.1 in Denmark! Weeks 6 is prelimary (446 samples, around 600 the 2 weeks before), but I do not expect XBB.1.5 to fall back.  has stopped their weekly report, it seems. Numbers here, but in Danish. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/aa41b29149f24e20a4007a0c4e13db1d/page/Kommunalt/

DJ, My impression is that for now Long CoViD is the main problem in this phase of the pandemic. Some variants of CoViD could show limited short term symptoms...unclear of long term health issues...

"Cold" is a global issue...but not seen as a major public health problem. Could CoViD now be on its way in that direction ? 

[url]https://www.independentsage.org/[/url] or https://www.independentsage.org/ will give their view...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kA1_H9e4Nf4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kA1_H9e4Nf4 

DJ, Is it lack of info, denial of a pandemic ? Excess deaths statistics may indicate at least CoViD becoming less lethal ? I hope to learn more from Indie-SAGE...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2023 at 2:39am

February 18 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kA1_H9e4Nf4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kA1_H9e4Nf4 latest from indie_SAGE;

Chapters  01:08 Intro: Dr Stephen Griffin 03:21 Stats: Dr Kit Yates 17:15 The Covid Pledge: Prof Stephen Reicher & Janet Newsham (Chair, Hazards Campaign) 27:26 For the vulnerable, is Covid all over? Lara Wong (Founder, Clinically Vulnerable Families) 31:40 Wish list? 34:10 Inspirational examples 36:04 What is being done in Knowsley? James Robinson (Branch Secretary, Knowsley Unison) 41:43 Why sign up to the pledge? 44:45 Question s from the public:  45:00 What is the association between Covid and immune dysfunction, both in kids & adults? 50:06 NHS & ZOE list very different symptoms. Does this matter? 56:52 John's Hopkins Uni Covid tracker is closing down. Where do we now get reliable info? 59:10 Are there any studies looking at infectivity after 14 days of a +ve LFT? 01:01:09 Conclusion and close

DJ...statistics not very clear...UK (hospital) cases may be increasing, new cases however may be going down...[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data 1,216,000 UK cases feb.16 to 1,230,000 UK cases feb.17...

[url]https://coronadashboard.government.nl/[/url] or https://coronadashboard.government.nl/ NL R0 increased to 1,11...but pressure on healtcare (hospitals +4 to 399, ICU +4 to 25) is "low"...We did see 2,000 to 3,000 hospital cases, at the peak over 1,400 -several times over 500 ICU beds in use in NL...

I did expect christmas, new year, reopening schools/workplaces would result in a major wave in january....My impression is increase was limited in lots of places. Delayed care means hospitals/care still face a very major job with less staff-and due to inflation-less finance....

Lots of western countries also provided (hospital) care for wounded from the Ukraine war...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/02/11/carnival-next-week-lead-resurgence-coronavirus-hospitals-prepared[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/02/11/carnival-next-week-lead-resurgence-coronavirus-hospitals-prepared

The carnival celebrations, which will take place in about a week in the Netherlands, could lead to a slight increase of the coronavirus or influenza. An ANP overview said hospitals are prepared but are not very concerned. Three years ago, Carnival was a stronghold for coronavirus, which was just new in the Netherlands at the time. A short time later, the first wave began.

One of the big carnival cities is Venlo. The hospital there, VieCuri, said: "Based on data from previous years, we are preparing as well as possible. For example, we have scripts lying around."


Furthermore, Hospital Elisabeth-TweeSteden (ETZ) in Tilburg, where the first Covid-19 infection in the Netherlands was detected three years ago, is "not very concerned about the upcoming carnival season. We know from the time before the coronavirus that the number of viral infections will increase then, it won't be different now." Also medical microbiologist Jean-Luc Murk of ETZ no longer expects another major coronavirus outbreak "because society has built up sufficient immunity to it."

-

According to Canisius Wilhelmina Hospital (CWZ) in Nijmegen, contagious diseases can easily circulate during Carnival, but it helps that mostly young people are partying. "Carnival is a fun and important public celebration. If young, relatively healthy people get the flu or a cold, it's not as much of a problem. The hospital advises people at risk for coronavirus or flu infection to "avoid crowded places like carnivals."

In general, Carnival-goers don't just come from the South. Every year, people from above the rivers also come to places like Oeteldonk (Den Bosch) and Kielegat (Breda). But even the hospitals further north are not worried about the returnees. Ikazia in Rotterdam, for example, reported that people in this region don't really celebrate Carnival anyway. Hospital Antonius (Sneek) also said, "No adjustments are needed in our organization specifically for this period."

Furthermore, the Diakonessenhuis in Utrecht shared that while there is "always a possibility" of a virus outbreak when many people gather, "we don't expect it to be problematic numbers."

Other hospitals, such as the Tjongerschans in Heerenveen, the Erasmus MC in Rotterdam and the Gelderse Vallei in Ede, gave similar responses. The latter hospital said it is prepared for an increase in respiratory infections in winter anyway.

DJ, Flu numbers are low both in NL and UK...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table has Germany cases +12%, Russia +28%...Poland +62%, Ukraine +42%...however (excess) deaths seem to be low...

There may be CoViD-variants that are more high risk...but reported CoViD deaths often are under 1,000 per day worldwide...

DJ-One of the risks could be initial infection may see no/limited disease...however long term health issues (hearth, diabetes) may increase...A bit like HIV/AIDS becoming -at least in rich countries- often a chronic disease (but still a major problem). 

My view on vaccines/earlier infection is they offer limited protection. One factor could be a lot of the high risk population either already died from CoViD or "limit" social activities. Vaccines may offer 4 to 6 months protection...for certainly younger/lower risk groups the last vaccination may be older then 6 months...If they did get vaccinated...

DJ-It may be impossible to get a realistic view on "long term damage to human immunity"...lots of discussions...

-There are "hosts" - both humans and animals

-Diseases could "change" (multi resistent tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, M-pox...) 

-Most at risk groups limiting activities may influence transport of disease into humans...

Marburg in Africa [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Marburg_virus_disease_outbreak_in_Equatorial_Guinea[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Marburg_virus_disease_outbreak_in_Equatorial_Guinea very likely an even local - not regional- problem...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/africa-all-other-diseases/968429-equatorial-guinea-quarantines-200-after-about-8-unknown-hemorrhagic-fever-deaths-february-10-2023-marburg-virus-disease-outbreak-confirmed?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/africa-all-other-diseases/968429-equatorial-guinea-quarantines-200-after-about-8-unknown-hemorrhagic-fever-deaths-february-10-2023-marburg-virus-disease-outbreak-confirmed?view=stream 

Ukraine, Türkiye/Syria earthquake zone (over 45,000 deaths...) but also Peru [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/h5n1-tracking-ab/peru-aa/964078-peru-h5n1-in-poultry-and-mammals?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/h5n1-tracking-ab/peru-aa/964078-peru-h5n1-in-poultry-and-mammals?view=stream with H5N1 in mammals, M-Pox other diseases at a crisis level...

Of course Africa, lots of other countries may be in a similar position as Peru only have less testing...we may miss a lot of high risk spread. 

My conclusion, maybe the risk of acute illness from CoViD in limited places may go down, other illnesses, long term CoViD risks seem to be increasing...

On top of that the "west-rest-conflict" only seems to escalate, climate collapse now has lowest Antarctic sea ice...with [url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.150.html[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.150.html Arctic sea ice now also in bad shape...Extreme weather a "new normal"...

Outlook is BAD !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Sunday, february 19 

On CoViD;

Looks like XBB.1.5 has passed CH.1.1 in Denmark! Weeks 6 is prelimary (446 samples, around 600 the 2 weeks before), but I do not expect XBB.1.5 to fall back.  has stopped their weekly report, it seems. Numbers here, but in Danish. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/aa41b29149f24e20a4007a0c4e13db1d/page/Kommunalt/

and 








Look at this complicated recombination of a probably saltated BA.5.11 with XBK, for example. All kind of combinations are happening. Old variants gaining fast spikes, can keep them alive.

DJ...CoViD is not over....








Thank you. I was searching for that one. Additional protection of the 4th vaccine against hospitilisation had indeed waned a lot after 6 months. We might expect the same from the bivalent booster, especially with CH.1.1 and XBB.1.5 infections.

Vaccines may offer limited protection after months (also depending on age, immunity of person)

"The more variation, the more chance that there will be a big nasty variant again. And Delta, for example, is still surviving by recombining with variants with a "fast" spike. See XBC and XAY"

and








CH.1.1/XBB.1.5 recombinant found in Amsterdam

DJ CoronaHeadsUp following Josette Schoenmakers her posts in Dutch. For now [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data new cases showing up may be decreasing...This does NOT mean even the "acute phase" of this CoViD pandemic is over...

Another Dutch study [url]https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0817/12/2/168[/url] or https://www.mdpi.com/2076-0817/12/2/168 on H5N1 in brains of carnivores (in NL) most likely after eating infected birds...DJ...Rats, mice, cats may also have H5N1 in their brain ? Feeding minks with dead birds is a way to spread H5N1 in minks....

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[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-impairs-natural-killer-nk-cells-functions[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-impairs-natural-killer-nk-cells-functions 

and 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-canadian-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-nsp5-prevents-and-delays-viral-clearance-by-antagonizing-the-mhc-ii-antigen-presentation-pathway[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-news-canadian-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-nsp5-prevents-and-delays-viral-clearance-by-antagonizing-the-mhc-ii-antigen-presentation-pathway 

DJ -both with links to studies- may indicate there is damage in immunity after CoViD infection. We may not see that immunity damage in the -almost over- flu season...It most likely will show itself in (some) other diseases "acting strange"...

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Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz

@GosiaGasperoPhD
·
Transmission can be strongly reduced. What works against COVID, works against Flu: Universal N95 masking (mandates), Clean Air (HEPA air purifiers, ventilation), Travel health protections (symptom checks, testing, masks) Children are not supposed to die from preventable illness.

DJ....lots of countries now are at "pandemic rules" as if there is no pandemic....So we will see history repeating itself...

If you ignore history it will all be for nothing....Maybe "humans are sad creatures"....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, 

[url]https://tass.com/russia/1578471[/url] or https://tass.com/russia/1578471

MOSCOW, February 19. /TASS/. Russia’s COVID-19 case tally rose by 14,233 over the past day to 22,166,635, the anti-coronavirus crisis center reported on Sunday.

As many as 799 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 in Russia over the past day. The number of hospitalized patients declined in 70 regions, while in 12 other regions the figure increased. A day earlier, 1,504 people were rushed to hospitals.

Moscow’s COVID-19 cases surged by 2,547 over the past day against 2,854 a day earlier, reaching 3,399,490, according to the anti-coronavirus crisis center. St. Petersburg’s COVID-19 cases increased by 1,508 over the past day against 1,420 a day earlier, reaching 1,867,032.

Russia’s COVID-19 recoveries rose by 9,316 over the past day against 11,439 the day earlier, reaching 21,504,809, the anti-coronavirus crisis center told reporters.


Russia’s COVID-19 death toll increased by 36over the past day and reached 395,799, the crisis center announced. A day earlier 36 COVID-19 deaths were registered.

DJ, So out of 14,000 new cases around 2,500 in Moscow, 1,500 in Sint Petersburg...CoViD widespread in Russia...Looking at eastern Europe [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Russia cases +24%...Poland +59%, Czechia +50%, Moldova +48%, Ukraine itself +42%, Romania +14%. More western Europe; France +9%, NL +5%, Norway +7%...

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