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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Forget the face masks, folks....

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CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 21 2020 at 12:26pm
I believe that the most likely route for infection will be shown to be fecal/oral, NOT respiratory. 

https://www.mlo-online.com/disease/infectious-disease/article/21126536/studies-show-covid19-virus-likely-has-multiple-infection-routes

Of course, hand sanitation in China and other Asian countries is not what we expect in the West.  

Fecal aerosol transmission of SARS was proven in the Amboy Gardens apartments in Hong Kong.  (see my followup post below).

When folks ask "How long will a virus remain viable on a surface?" the correct answer is "It depends."  

If the virus is encased in a dried sheath of mucous/sputum, OR in dried fecal matter, it can remain viable for weeks or longer.  

Don't worry about facemasks, buy soap.  ps. alcohol hand sanitizers don't work well for any viruses.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 12:51pm
p.s. this is a great article on the SARS experience:


CINCINNATI -- Recent reports by the World Health Organization (WHO) have shed new light on the role sewage plays in spreading the deadly disease known as severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS. The issue emerged following a SARS outbreak at the Amoy Garden apartment complex in Hong Kong last month. While the United States has not experienced a SARS outbreak like the one in China, Americans can benefit from the information Hong Kong investigators have uncovered to prevent severe and common diseases from spreading in their homes through plumbing.

According to WHO, ineffective U-trap seals in the drainpipes of Amoy Garden apartments triggered the SARS outbreak. These traps, often called P-traps in the U.S., are designed to hold water at all times. The water acts as a barrier and prevents insects, foul smells and, in this case, viruses and bacteria from backing up through the drains.

"Every U.S. plumbing fixture -- a toilet, sink, bathtub or floor drain -- uses a P-trap in its drainpipe. When the P-trap failed in the Amoy Garden apartment complex in Hong Kong, the plumbing system, in effect, acted as a transportation system for the virus to spread quickly through the building," said Larry Rothman, master plumber with Roto-Rooter Services Company.

Roto-Rooter, a leading expert on plumbing issues, reports that the plumbing systems in American homes and apartment buildings use P-traps similar to those in Hong Kong. While U.S. health department officials have taken aggressive steps to prevent a SARS outbreak here, the situation in Hong Kong illuminates the combination of plumbing and disease. To educate Americans about the role plumbing plays in the spread of disease, Roto-Rooter has prepared a list of tips for keeping drains and P-traps clean.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 1:03pm
For serious COVID-19 geeks only!!  Great pre-publication paper....the intermediate host may be pangolins! 


Why pangolins?  


I swear, those folks will eat anything!!  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 1:19pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 3:08pm
Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

For serious COVID-19 geeks only!!  Great pre-publication paper....the intermediate host may be pangolins! 


Why pangolins?  


I swear, those folks will eat anything!!  


Good for the Pangolins - they are finally getting their own back. They have been hunted to the brink of extinction by idiots who believe their scales offer miracle cures for impotent and other such things so I'm really glad that they are turning the tables. Hopefully people will now steer clear of them. I mean seriously, what is wrong with people?????!!!!!!
Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 5:20pm
There are several studies pointing to aerosol transmission. Wear masks and goggles.


Researchers from South China Agricultural University believe the pangolin may have spread the deadly coronavirus to humans in China. THIS IS PROPAGANDA DIRECTLY FROM THE CCP
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 11:52am
Originally posted by cobber cobber wrote:

There are several studies pointing to aerosol transmission. Wear masks and goggles.


Researchers from South China Agricultural University believe the pangolin may have spread the deadly coronavirus to humans in China. THIS IS PROPAGANDA DIRECTLY FROM THE CCP

Aerosol transmission is the primary concern in the clinical setting, fomite transmission in the community setting.   Googles are needed in a hospital only. 

I'm trained in N-95 and pandemic response in the clinical and community settings.   I've participated in major Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) and pandemic dispensing/vaccination drills in Chicago, and am presently communicating with fellow SME to the FBI about infrastructure protection.  

We'll be OK, this will become a community infection and lives will be lost, but this isn't Armageddon.  No need to panic.  I'd rather have COVID-19 than SARS or MERS.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:03pm
LOL, ok for you to say don't worry you are not 10 years south of 60!   
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