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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Jakarta Bird Flu Hospital Overwhelmed by

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2007 at 1:07pm
Thanks for the information. They are on alert status for flu according to this:
 
I would think they would start to warn people about what is possibly in the future.
 
Have no idea why they havent already.
 
The media usually makes a point to leak things out and havent heard a peep from them!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2007 at 1:28pm
BabyGirl, I think this site is for what we are dealing with now (seasonal flu) and that is all. That has been bad here this year with young healthy people dying. There is no requirement that those cases be reported. But it's not H5N1. Good luck.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2007 at 5:30pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pspiegel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2007 at 5:51pm
Originally posted by mach mach wrote:

This is not the type of preparation that is done 'in case' there is a pandemic. I agree. If accurate, it sounds like the govt thinks it's close. A building full of beds is a serious preparation   

    
I beg to differ, somewhat. A building full of beds suggests an acknowledgment that a pandemic is inevitable, but not necessarily that it is "close". It's a fine point, but I believe it's valid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Glow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2007 at 7:19pm
Bozito...you sound like a very dedicated and intelligent person...but, why play with fire?...meaning that yes you could possibly learn, but in all learning we have set backs until we learn it correctly.....you wouldn't want to learn a mistake by causing a death I'm sure.    Here is an almost sure bet to be safe(not 100%, but close to it).....isolation...complete (100%) ISOLATION.  ISOLATION should be on top of all our lists!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Glow Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2007 at 7:24pm
VTDoc....I completely dissagree with you.  These people "pick" their words very carefully!!.....they have alot on the line....if it is nothing to worry about they would say so and with direct and affirming words...but on the other hand,  if there is some kind of problem they would have to give the information in unclear terminology.  When I read this piece, this word "clear" stuck out like a sore thumb to me. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2007 at 7:26pm
Originally posted by pspiegel pspiegel wrote:

Originally posted by mach mach wrote:

This is not the type of preparation that is done 'in case' there is a pandemic. I agree. If accurate, it sounds like the govt thinks it's close. A building full of beds is a serious preparation   

    
I beg to differ, somewhat. A building full of beds suggests an acknowledgment that a pandemic is inevitable, but not necessarily that it is "close". It's a fine point, but I believe it's valid.


it is a fine point, but worthy of discussion.

I would say a storage area with many beds in storage and a plan to put them someplace if needed is a long term plan. I took it to mean the beds were set up and usable in a building that is sitting not being used.

That to me sounds more urgent. Unused space costs money. Why set them up ready for patients for something that may not happen for 10 years or more?

Also, given the number of wounded from Irag, I would think a VA hospital woud need all the space they could get. However, if it was built during WW2, they may have extra buildings that they don't need. Hard to ell
    
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2007 at 7:37pm
Originally posted by rockyman rockyman wrote:

Quote from WHO official:

"Obviously we are very concerned if this virus should develop the ability to transmit between humans. We have not seen any clear sign of that yet. We are hoping it will stay the way it is," Peter Cordingley, WHO spokesman for the Asia-Pacific, told Reuters Television in Manila.



Is anyone else troubled by the word "clear"...the inference being that WHO has seen signs of H2H but just not irrefutable signs.



Yes. people with info that they can't fully disclose choose words very carefully. however, since the WHO has admitted "probable" limited H2H transmission in family clusters in the past, he may have just been using the word 'clear' to indicate nothing has changed past 'probable', that there is no indication of expanding larger clusters outside the family. If that happened it would be a "clear" sign that the virus has mutated to be more efficient H2H transmission.
    
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bozito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2007 at 9:34pm
Originally posted by Glow Glow wrote:

Bozito...you sound like a very dedicated and intelligent person...but, why play with fire?...meaning that yes you could possibly learn, but in all learning we have set backs until we learn it correctly.....you wouldn't want to learn a mistake by causing a death I'm sure.    Here is an almost sure bet to be safe(not 100%, but close to it).....isolation...complete (100%) ISOLATION.  ISOLATION should be on top of all our lists!


Oh, I could definitely learn, but you are right on both counts. Knowledge without practice on a live person is less than ideal and could result in losing the patient. But you have to figure that the patient would probably die anyway without a ventilator, so it might be worth the risk. But more importantly, you are right about isolation. It is the only way to prevent contracting the disease. Isolation takes a lot of planning and preparation though, and it is also hard to accept psychologically that it is necessary to do all that hard work. But it IS necessary.
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 17 2007 at 12:49pm
Originally posted by mach mach wrote:

Originally posted by pspiegel pspiegel wrote:

Originally posted by mach mach wrote:

This is not the type of preparation that is done 'in case' there is a pandemic. I agree. If accurate, it sounds like the govt thinks it's close. A building full of beds is a serious preparation   

    
I beg to differ, somewhat. A building full of beds suggests an acknowledgment that a pandemic is inevitable, but not necessarily that it is "close". It's a fine point, but I believe it's valid.


it is a fine point, but worthy of discussion.

I would say a storage area with many beds in storage and a plan to put them someplace if needed is a long term plan. I took it to mean the beds were set up and usable in a building that is sitting not being used.

That to me sounds more urgent. Unused space costs money. Why set them up ready for patients for something that may not happen for 10 years or more?

Also, given the number of wounded from Irag, I would think a VA hospital woud need all the space they could get. However, if it was built during WW2, they may have extra buildings that they don't need. Hard to ell
    
    
Could this be Mobil, Alabama where there is a basic training camp for Military Police, women's training, and other training takes place? I would think a build up of beds would be in preparation for a military build-up and perhaps any civil disturbances that may occur due to terrorist attacks or say the pandemic flu. A secure military base would allow for a secured encampment, JMHO.
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Originally posted by Bozito Bozito wrote:

 (snip)... If you think you are limited then you are, but once you realize that your aren't, then you are not. And that is when you become liberated.
 
(snip)... the doctor knows best." Well, don't you believe it. Anything they can do, you can do.

You are so right! My pet cow’s UNBORN calf was breached! It’s dusk and I have a cow in emergency, a hoof and leg sticking out her rear.

 

I have never seen a calf pulled but you’re so right Bozito, you can do what you can do and just do it. She followed me into the squeeze shoot. After trying hand pulling, a come-a-long was hooked to the dog choke chain on the calf’s leg and the pulling began. The calf was already dead and the cow was getting weak. Eventually the calf came out in pieces and the cow was still alive, exhausted and kept penned up.

 

Two days later the cow is doing well and back with the herd this afternoon. She would have died. Your post gave me strength and courage. Thank you.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bozito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 17 2007 at 7:49pm
Originally posted by Annie1 Annie1 wrote:

Originally posted by Bozito Bozito wrote:

 (snip)... If you think you are limited then you are, but once you realize that your aren't, then you are not. And that is when you become liberated.
 

(snip)... the doctor knows best." Well, don't you believe it. Anything they can do, you can do.


<P =Msonormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: green"><FONT face="Courier New">You are so right! My pet cow’s UNBORN calf was breached! It’s dusk and I have a cow in emergency, a hoof and leg sticking out her rear.<?:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN>


<P =Msonormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: green"><FONT face="Courier New"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN>


<P =Msonormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: green"><FONT face="Courier New">I have never seen a calf pulled but you’re so right Bozito, you can do what you can do and just do it. She followed me into the squeeze shoot. After trying hand pulling, a come-a-long was hooked to the dog choke chain on the calf’s leg and the pulling began. The calf was already dead and the cow was getting weak. Eventually the calf came out in pieces and the cow was still alive, exhausted and kept penned up. <o:p></o:p></SPAN>


<P =Msonormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: green"><FONT face="Courier New"> <o:p></o:p></SPAN>


<P =Msonormal style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 0pt"><SPAN style="COLOR: green"><FONT face="Courier New">Two days later the cow is doing well and back with the herd this afternoon. She would have died. Your post gave me strength and courage. Thank you.</SPAN>



Congratulations on saving your cow!
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bozito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 17 2007 at 11:52pm
And if you didn't believe me about Tamiflu, read this article that just appeared in the NYT:

http://*********/2007/01/18/world/africa/18flu.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

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http://*********/2007/01/18/world/africa/18flu.html is censored?

Thats ridiculous!  I can't think of any valid reason for us to be discouraged from visiting that site.  Fill in the blanks with "n y time s" but leave out the extra spaces

Here is the story:

New Strain of Bird Flu Found in Egypt Is Resistant to Antiviral Drug



Published: January 18, 2007

A strain of avian flu that is resistant to the antiviral drug oseltamivir has been isolated from two family members in Egypt, the World Health Organization said yesterday.

The development is potentially dangerous because oseltamivir, commonly sold under the name Tamiflu, is the chief weapon against the flu strain, H5N1, which many worry could mutate into a strain that could set off a worldwide pandemic.

The health organization emphasized that it was too early to tell whether the resistant strain had developed independently in the two patients, who were both under treatment with the drug, or whether they had picked it up from birds or from each other. The resistant strain did not spread to anyone else, including a third family member who also had avian flu.

“Given the information we have, we don’t see any broad public health implications,” said Dick Thompson, a spokesman for the organization.

Mr. Thompson was unsure which Egyptian cluster of flu infections the patients were part of. But another source said it was one in Gharbiya Province, roughly 50 miles north of Cairo, in which flu killed three people last month in a 33-member family living in one compound.

Oseltamivir-resistant strains were found in three unrelated patients in Vietnam in 2005 but did not spread.

The development “is not a big surprise, but it certainly is disheartening,” said Dr. Anne Moscona, an expert on flu treatment at Weill Cornell Medical College.

The oseltamivir-resistant strain in Egypt was susceptible to zanamir, which is sold as Relenza, and to amantadine, which is from an older, cheaper and easier-to-use class of drugs but is not normally used as a first-line treatment because many avian flu strains are resistant to it.

The development, Dr. Moscona said, suggested that doctors might have to consider switching to a cocktail of drugs as first-line treatment, as is done with AIDS medications and sometimes with antibiotics.

Dr. Andrew T. Pavia, chairman of the pandemic influenza task force of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, said it was theoretically possible that resistant strains of the flu had developed simultaneously in two related patients, especially if they were very sick and had been treated with doses of oseltamivir that were too low.

But if one transmitted it to the other, “it would be very worrisome,” he said, because previous resistant strains had been very weak at infecting new victims.

Scientists do not know exactly which mutations or how many of them would make the avian flu virus more dangerous, but they have some clues.

The virus now circulating in birds does not attach easily to cells inside human noses or throats. It reproduces more slowly at human temperatures than at bird temperatures, which are slightly higher. It does not detach easily from cells to infect new ones, and it is usually killed by oseltamivir.

Scientists are keeping an eye on the genes that code for those aspects of the virus — for example, the shape of the spikes on its outer coating, where it binds to cells.

If an oseltamivir-resistant strain spreads, it will complicate the public health response. Governments have been stockpiling oseltamivir, not zanamir. Zanamir is more expensive and also harder to use and to ship, because it is typically sold not as a pill but as a powder that comes in an inhaler resembling a small hockey puck.

An intravenous form exists but has not been approved for use in some countries, including the United States, Dr. Moscona said
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Roidy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 18 2007 at 5:11am
I heard about a Tamiflu resistance strain this morning.  How exactly does this occur?  Bird to human to bird?  If this is true, then the implications of this are profound.  I really don't believe it at the moment.  I need some input.
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