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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Will we make it to next years seasonal flu?
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    Posted: February 12 2007 at 4:45pm

I suppose it could still mutate, oh say, next Monday to be easily transmissable but I kind of don't think so.  What do I base that on?  Just hope.  I need a little longer.  I do; however, have very serious doubts about how much longer we have.  What do I base that on?  Lack of hope.  How much longer do you guys think we have?  I think maybe I got overly bombarded with all the new outbreaks but I sort of don't know if we have another year. 

 

 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2007 at 5:11pm

We will be lucky to make it through this flu season. I don't see us making it through a year without it going H2H. It just keeps spreading and mutating. It could make the jump any time now. I am not ready either.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2007 at 5:33pm
This is the part noone knows. But judging by some of the moves recently made by the CDC and the fact that it is widespread in poultry worldwide we are getting closer. May not be here as soon as we think. 1918 struck Boston in September.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2007 at 6:25pm
I believe it is close!!But I also thouhgt the BEARS would win .Shows what I know!!??
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2007 at 6:33pm
cabinlassy... I was thinking about mutations... any of them could combine at any time to be
rather nasty... as in the 50's and 60's.  I'm pretending to prepare as if for a hurricane etc.
so I can have fun and make plans with my home and garden, I dream of summer.  I love road trips... planning one for VT.  I put together a kit for illnes in my closet and a comfort kit if things get wild.  That is a soothing for me.  Perhaps others have "planned comforts"?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2007 at 6:49pm
    I'm getting very weary thinking about it and looking at all of my preps edging closer and closer to expiration dates. And my water is starting to leak under my beds on our hardwood floors - not a good thing. Trying to use what we can but alot of the emergency pantry is just that - not the fresh veggies, meats, breads we are used to eating. I know everyone says stock what you eat but what we eat is usually the fresh quickly perishable stuff. What to do...? I know I am running out of money for good now and am getting concerned as we should have money on hand as well!! Back to the question - my gut tells me we will get through this flu season; it also hints that I'll be even less prepared next year. I know, depressing. I'm sorry not to be more upbeat or hopeful tonight. Don't know if whether this is good news or bad news (talk about confused? Why'd I even respond????) Take care, all    Pam
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2007 at 7:20pm
I don't really know how much time we have....I have to believe we have more time.  This believe ( or denial) gets me thru my life as normal as possible.  If I thought for one minute is was going to happen tomarrow I'd be sick to my stomach all the time. 
 
So I believe we have time... I'm starting to book my camping vacations but, I'm only putting down the minimum deposits.  This give me more money to prepare, and of course something to look forward too. 
 
I've always said.  Preparing is something you do...It's not who you become.    
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Points: 116 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BMW1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2007 at 7:45pm
  Hi AnnHarra, if you don't mind me asking, What kind of items do you keep in your comfort kit? I already put my illness kit together.  Thanks
Mississipi Mama
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2007 at 8:38pm

so far...

vanilla candles for calming, passion flower tea, 2 small Paul Newman Dk choc/orange bars,
some fav CD's upbeat and relaxing, Taro cards..just for fun, several beautiful books from the Salesian Collection, materials for crocheted lace, fav Kaleidoscope, Make Fashion Magic, The Cottage Book, French Cuisine (beautiful photos) pack of cards, lotion, locking diary, pen, small family photo album, sewing kit, small chess board, tapes...Stories From The Herriot Collection, watercolor paints/brushes and blank cards.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2007 at 10:39pm
Originally posted by AnnHarra AnnHarra wrote:

so far...


vanilla candles for calming, passion flower tea, 2 small Paul Newman Dk choc/orange bars,some fav CD's upbeat and relaxing, Taro cards..just for fun, several beautiful books from the Salesian Collection, materials for crocheted lace, fav Kaleidoscope, Make Fashion Magic, The Cottage Book, French Cuisine (beautiful photos) pack of cards, lotion, locking diary, pen, small family photo album, sewing kit, small chess board, tapes...Stories From The Herriot Collection, watercolor paints/brushes and blank cards.


    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ann,,i LOVE your comfort kit!
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Points: 49 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Margreth Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2007 at 12:01am
I never thought of a comfort kit.
One for every member of the family.

My Comfort box

paints, paper ,canvas    art books , music cd and a year worth of bateries for a cd player . candles, good quality dark chocolate. Crank radio, books, quality wine

My husband
chess set, cards, books, some imported beer, paper for drawing , he would have a large wood working kit.

Son age 14
cd radio with batteries cna his own cd player. Writing paper gum ,candles flashlights, books.

In answering the question how long do we have . My quess is spring and from both sides of the country.
I think we will be knee deep in it by September.
    
The door to hell locked from the inside. The key to being all that you can be is yours to use. Find your power
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2007 at 12:54am
ann,
 
I would much prefer your faith and kit to mine.
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All I have to say is that, our baby is due the 1st of September, probably deliver around the end of August, prefer to do that in the hospital ( A hospital without contagious patients ! So I am praying we make it to September.  Thanks for all help from this site, I wouldnt know where to start without it !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2007 at 3:19am
    HoosierMom, Have you made arrangements for a midwife just in case?
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Originally posted by HoosierMom HoosierMom wrote:

  All I have to say is that, our baby is due the 1st of September, probably deliver around the end of August, prefer to do that in the hospital ( A hospital without contagious patients ! So I am praying we make it to September.  Thanks for all help from this site, I wouldnt know where to start without it !
Just a thought,
All four of our grandbabies were born at home with a midwife. Annie
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2007 at 8:38am
    Annie!! I bet you would be an AWESOME resource for HoosierMom and her baby. I've started a thread in pandemic planning tips on midwives (as I couldn't find one); hoping this will help her and any others. Take care, Pam
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2007 at 8:39am
    HoosierMom - I started a thread for you on midwives under pandemic planning tips. Hope this helps you - just in case - Prayers with you and your joyful little bundle!! Much love to you, Pam
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2007 at 11:38am
comfort kit, what a beautiful thing! I will make one for each of my kids and grandkids. I will include some of the same things as stated here, plus some insence, UNO cards, gum, mints, a soft blanket, a hot water bottle, and yes, always chocolate!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2007 at 5:35pm
well... I had a laugh... was reading fast and I pictured a husband going into a comfort kit :)
 
HoosierMom I picture your baby as nice and healthy.  There are a lot of ideas from good people here. 
 
What  is/was your fav baby book?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2007 at 2:13pm
Candles... is somthing wrong with passion flower tea?  Let me know.
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Originally posted by AnnHarra AnnHarra wrote:

Candles... is somthing wrong with passion flower tea?  Let me know.
This is part of article released on the herb . plants passion flower . Just needed you to be aware , common here to make teas chill and drink all day , some layer treatments , bath in , tincture added to body cream , oil massaged .  Tincture and teas taken thru the day . Just needed you to read the interactions . Link at end of post for full article . I am sipping on a cup of lemon grass and passion flower as I type .
Passion flower (Passiflora incarnata L.)  

Interactions

Most herbs and supplements have not been thoroughly tested for interactions with other herbs, supplements, drugs, or foods. The interactions listed below are based on reports in scientific publications, laboratory experiments, or traditional use. You should always read product labels. If you have a medical condition, or are taking other drugs, herbs, or supplements, you should speak with a qualified healthcare provider before starting a new therapy.

Interactions with Drugs
Certain substances (harmala alkaloids) with monoamine oxidase inhibitory (MAOI) action have been found in small amounts in some species of  Passiflora.  Although levels of these substances may be too low to be cause noticeable effects, in theory, use of passion flower with MAOI drugs may cause additive effects. MAOI drugs include Isocarboxazid (Marplan®), phenelzine (Nardil®), and tranylcypromine (Parnate®).

Based on animal research, use of passion flower with alcohol or other sedativesmay increase the amount of drowsiness caused by some drugs. Examples include benzodiazepines such as lorazepam (Ativan®) or diazepam (Valium®), barbiturates such as phenobarbital, narcotics such as codeine, some antidepressants, and alcohol. Caution is advised while driving or operating machinery.

Passionflower may in theory increase the risk of bleeding when taken with drugs that increase the risk of bleeding. Some examples include aspirin, anticoagulants ("blood thinners") such as warfarin (Coumadin®) or heparin, anti-platelet drugs such as clopidogel (Plavix®), and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs such as ibuprofen (Motrin®, Advil®) or naproxen (Naprosyn®, Aleve®).

Many tinctures contain high levels of alcohol, and may cause nausea or vomiting when taken with metronidazole (Flagyl®) or disulfiram (Antabuse®).

Interactions with Herbs and Dietary Supplements
Certain substances (harmala alkaloids) with monoamine oxidase inhibitory (MAOI) action have been found in small amounts in some species of  Passiflora.  Although levels of these substances may be too low to be cause noticeable effects, in theory, use of passion flower with herbs or supplements with MAOI activity may cause additive effects.

Based on animal research, use of passion flower with sedative-hypnotic herbs or supplements may increase the amount of drowsiness caused by some herbs or supplements.

Passionflower may in theory increase the risk of bleeding when taken with herbs or supplements that increase the risk of bleeding. Multiple cases of bleeding have been reported with the use of  Ginkgo biloba , and fewer cases with garlic and saw palmetto. Numerous other agents may theoretically increase the risk of bleeding, although this has not been proven in most cases.

Passion flower contains lycopene and may have additive effects when taken with lycopene supplements.

Methodology Return to top

This information is based on a professional level monograph edited and peer-reviewed by contributors to the Natural Standard Research Collaboration (www.naturalstandard.com): Ethan Basch, MD, MSc, MPhil (Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer); Heather Boon, BScPhm, PhD, (University of Toronto); Gerald Gianutsos, PhD, JD (University of Connecticut); Michael Smith, M.R.PharmS., ND (Canadian College of Naturopathic Medicine); David Sollars MAc, HMC (New England School of Acupuncture); Catherine Ulbricht, PharmD (Massachusetts General Hospital); Wendy Weissner, BA (Natural Standard Research Collaboration).

Methodology details

http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/druginfo/natural/patient-passionflower.html
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thanks!.... good link too.
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Recommended compostion of influenza virus vaccines for use in the 2007 influenza season for sth hemisphere...........   messy to post .. shows who's got what strains in all countrys.
 
  AND here is the NTH
 
Archive Number 20070215.0566
Published Date 15-FEB-2007
Subject PRO> Influenza vaccine 2007/2008 - N Hemisphere
INFLUENZA VACCINE 2007/2008 - NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
*************************************************
A ProMED-mail post
<http://www.promedmail.org>
ProMED-mail is a program of the
International Society for Infectious Diseases
<http://www.isid.org>

Date: Thu 15 Feb 2007
From: ProMED-mail <promed@promedmail.org>
Source: World Health Organisation (WHO), CSR, recommendations [edited]
<http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/recommendations2007north/en/
print.html>


Recommended composition of influenza virus vaccines for use in the 
2007-2008 northern hemisphere influenza season
------------------------------------------------
It is recommended that vaccines to be used in the 2007-2008 season 
(northern hemisphere winter) contain the following:

- an A/Solomon Islands/3/2006 (H1N1)-like virus;

- an A/Wisconsin/67/2005 (H3N2)-like virus*;

- a B/Malaysia/2506/2004-like virus

*Candidate vaccine viruses include:
A/Wisconsin/67/2005 (H3N2) and A/Hiroshima/52/2005

For detailed information see:
Recommended composition of influenza virus vaccines for use in the 
2007-2008 influenza season available at:
<http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/20078anorthreport.pdf>.

--
ProMED-mail
@promedmail.org>

[see also:
Influenza vaccine 2006/2007 - N hemisphere 20060303.0676]
..........................................cp/mj
http://www.promedmail.org/pls/promed/f?p=2400:1001:12558475964422076594::NO::F2400_P1001_BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,36333
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I don't think that anyone on this list will regret whatever preps that they have made for this BF event or any other natural or man caused event which will come our way.  I think that all of you are blessed for having the foresight to prepare.  Yes I thought that we were all doomed a year ago, and luckily we're all still here.  Thank divine providence that we have had that time, and hopefully still more to prepare.  Even if a small fraction of your food or water stores have spoiled, like any insurance, be thankful that you DON'T have to use it.

But use what you have when you want to and replace it when you can.
Perhaps we can all look back in another year and pontificate on the same subject from the safety which we now enjoy.

Joy to the world!
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