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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

What's with India- feedback please

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    Posted: April 21 2009 at 9:36am
Okay- I had picked this up last month- and posted an event. The media continued to sit on it and farmers continued to hide their birds so they couldn't be counted. No one seems to want to touch this one. Since I am out on a limb here- if this is not accurate and current as dated on the two videos I just put up.. its time for someone to nudge me and say "Hey Med" that happened last year.

One video refers to 2,000,000 birds culled. Another statement is largest outbreak in India.
Maybe too much posting of this stuff- time for a pinch and to be told.. no- there isn't a huge outbreak in India..

If this continues in the birds, it will spread to the people.

Medclinician
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 21 2009 at 9:51am
hi... so far I only find news on massive culling in Bengal and Haryana in India in the months
 
of Oct. and January 2008... giving dates later as so called "updates"  they seem to know this
 
updating gets attention.
 
Dengue seems to be a problem...  From the Canadian Medical Journal-
 
CMAJ  March 31, 2009  (reporting 2008 cases)
 
NEWS

Dengue bites India

Sanjit Bagchi, MBBS

Kolkata, India

Dengue, a mosquito-borne and potentially fatal viral disease, has emerged as a huge threat in India, where the number of cases more than doubling in just one year.

The latest estimates by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare suggest that in 2008, India recorded 12 419 cases of Dengue, up from 5534 case in 2007. Delhi alone recorded 1307 cases of Dengue in 2008, up from 548 in 2007.

Four Indian states, Punjab, Haryana, West Bengal, and Gujarat, have been the worst hit by Dengue, with Punjab reporting 4349 cases, and Haryana, West Bengal and Gujarat reporting 1137, 1050, and 1023, respectively.

 

article here-
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 21 2009 at 11:41am
Originally posted by Mary08 Mary08 wrote:

hi... so far I only find news on massive culling in Bengal and Haryana in India in the months
 
of Oct. and January 2008... giving dates later as so called "updates"  they seem to know this
 
updating gets attention.

comment: updating old pages plays havoc with the engines and one can see no useful purpose in it except to pile up garbage which mask the real outbreaks. It is hard to understand logically why a newspaper would update a 2 year old story of an old outbreak, when generally India prefers to have no outbreaks and not to report them.

After falling into this trap numerous times and posting stories as current with today's date on the page- one begins to be a little suspicious of this practice. Credibility is important. If you can discredit a poster or writer- people will skip reading their posts permanently, and then even when they do come up with important breaking news- you effectively have silenced them. This is much more effective than trolling - where you attack the person - or multi-post as many people- when actually it may only be a single user. Over attacked people may stir up a backlash sentiment. But destroying the credibility of someone on the net where people stop reading their posts is an extremely effective way to blackout news.

Two months I did track China to an obvious blackout with an outbreak in a huge city of Avian. This was a very clear effort to tell people not to speak to reporters and bar reporters from an area.

A third effective way is to double post the same exact story by a more read user. Since readers are evading the poster- they are missing the news- and finally in desperation someone else will double post the same event.

The net is a difficult place at times. We have been pulling buffer material which has the date within the buffer of the publication of the story. Although these stories are unsurfable and hidden in the buffers- this type of news can still be datamined and posted.

The major problem with official sites, except those who may do week updates, are that on breaking news you may find stories 5 years old. That why places like AFT have breaking news.

The final.. and sad sad scenario- is when you have little news- and Avian sites who must always to have something hopping - began to blast possibles by the hundreds- as opposed ot two or three actual real cases. These are the very same users who may have jumped all over users posting valid links and data- and then as Albert has remarked we have the "mass translations" which infer if something is translated it is somehow more accurate. In some of our investigations of source of individuals from NAMRU who have sent translations- we have found that person does not even work at NAMRU anymore. They are not on staff. There is no person providing the "inside information" and the list of names is bogus. This does not stop the feverish posting and daily updates of possibles. In the end, final count, the possibles go home, were not infected, if they were real people at all.

Finding it first, is very competitive on the net. And if you are not in the spotlight, and you find it first- then basically your find may often be ignored until it breaks in mainstream and then people are all over it.

Is the webpage dated today with an old old story a plant, and after several times of posting old news as breaking new wipe out credibility. Most certainly. And so with India today, we have from India Time dated today videos from .. when? India, of all places least wants news saying it has Avian. It costs their people millions. There are no accidents in  a perfect world. I tracked a cat infection in Korea once after they proclaimed there was no Avian. We had a group of human infections in China this year with no Avian outbreaks. Obviously, in less it had gone P2P, which it had not, the Avian outbreaks were covered up. We finally had to start documenting dead birds testing positive floating off the coast of China.

2004 was good year for getting information. I documented high path Avian in Texas- human infections in the U.S., and even hunters who were directly infected from wild birds. It was also a rough year to be posting. The more data I found- the hotter it got to post.

Certain basic themes which I have followed over years came true. Tamiflu was basically useless and a waste to stockpile and developed resistant strains. Egypt beaten and weary after being a flash point on the net for big mutation and where it would happen continued to bury Gdong province, where a lot was still happening.

Is there a widespread low path human infeciton Egypt? Well, this seems to be really the "hot one" right now. The only probably there probably has been a low path infection in people globally for years, just like most other diseases. If you don't test for it, you won't know. And if you only test those on their death bed coughing up blood- you aren't going to get a lot of positives.

Also, if you throw out everything except for H5N1 as being important- you will probably miss 300,000,000 infected birds which could give another form of Avian to humans.

Your not going to find positives when don't test for low path. We won't know if many or most of the birds in the U.S. have low path, which is quite possible, unless we test for it.

end part 1



Medclinician

 


Part 2

Yes, one of the biggest problems I find in tracking is they will put today's date on an old old story. Another issue, and this is a tricky one - is the lag press release. This is where event happens (like Indonesia) and they wait 6 months to release the data. The you post the "new" story, which happened months ago and is still significant, but then people don't pick up on this. This is especially true of follow up analysis of outbreaks in the U.S. or Indonesia where you had a primary suspicion of Avian, then the 2nd confirm comes back low path or no big deal- and here is the kicker - the final analysis turns up high path.

In the United States when a human was infected with Avian Flu in New York in 2002-this is what happened - this I have trouble anymore finding at all.. but in 2002 on CIDRAP

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/avianflu/biofacts/avflu_human.html#_Summary_of_Avian_Influenza_in_Human

here is even more intriguing in New York

2003

H7N2

1

New York

The source of exposure was not determined (see References: CDC 2004: Influenza activity).


This case was never linked to bird exposure and was possibly P2P. H7 is a high mutator.

India as in Vietnam, the compensation for birds culled by the state is so bad, that families can starve if they report outbreaks. They actively hide outbreaks, making detection hard when a huge number are in backyards and outside the inspection unless they go house to house.

Medclinician
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