World War Three

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-china-relations-years-ahead-trade-war-sideshow;
In his speech, Pence harshly attacked virtually every aspect of Chinese society and referred to it an “authoritarian regime” on multiple occasions. This isn’t the sort of language U.S. officials tend to use when a breakthrough deal with a foreign nation is imminent, it’s the sort of language U.S. officials use when the country is at war, about to be at war, or is working on a regime change operation.
and;
If Trump wins in 2020, I expect he’ll become more aggressive with China than almost anyone can imagine. Without having to think about reelection, Trump will focus on his legacy and he’ll see reorienting the U.S.-Chinese relationship as the most historically significant achievement he can accomplish. At that point, China will have have no choice but to face the reality of another four years of Trump, and it’ll likewise stop pretending things are going well, which will cause the situation to deteriorate fast.

The path is a bit less clear should Trump lose reelection, though a major U.S.-China conflict remains in the cards early next decade regardless for a couple of reasons. First, the global economy is in fact on the verge of systemic failure due to it being structurally little more than a massive fraud scheme of debt, corruption and rent-seeking. When this failure truly manifests globally, both Chinese and U.S. leadership will desire a conflict in order to distract from internal problems. Chinese elites won’t want the Chinese people to blame them, and U.S. elites won’t want to be blamed either. As such, an external enemy works for politicians and oligarchs in both countries. It’s the same as it ever was. Trump’s just escalating and bringing forward a collision that’s increasingly likely to unfold irrespective of who resides in the oval office.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/multiple-dead-syrian-army-turkey-now-heavy-clashes-border, https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/30-october-saa-troops-withdrew-from-military-checkpoints,https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkish-backed-militants-abuse-captured-syrian-soldiers/, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/erdogan-says-turkey-has-right-to-resume-northern-syria-operation/

DJ-"Turkish backed rebels" may be a problem for Erdogan when they are in Turkey-also very hard to control. Does Erdogan want Syria, Russia (and the Kurds") to "solve that problem" (by killing most of those "rebels")?
https://southfront.org/turkish-backed-militants-executed-syrian-soldier-captured-near-ras-al-ayn/, https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-october-29-2019-army-reinforces-positions-on-turkish-border/

From https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/10/the-moa-week-in-review-open-thread-2019-62.html#more some good comments;

Last week, Thierry Meyssan posted an excellent paper (https://www.voltairenet.org/article208007.html), in which he states that the recent events in Syria, in which ‘a quarter of the country was freed in a week’ is not only a victory for Assad, but the defeat of the ‘military strategy to establish the supremacy of financial capitalism’. These events mark the overturning of the world order that has been in place since the end of WWII.

What I find remarkable is how quickly the old order has been overturned. The old order was initially a bi-polar world, which evolved, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, into a Uni-Polar World Order under the control of 'financial capitalism' (i.e. the ‘Globalists’, also referred to as ‘international financial elites’, ‘Anglo-Zionists’, the ‘Davos Crowd’, etc.). Arguably the Uni-Pole's power peaked in the early 2000s after the creation of the EU and the eastern expansion of NATO. The first cracks in the Uni-Pole's hegemonic power appeared in 2003 with the fiasco in Iraq, and in 2008 with the Global Financial Crisis. But even as late as 2015, when Obama dismissed Russia’s entry into Syria as nothing but Russia stepping into a quagmire, the 'Globalists' could foresee no opposing force that would prevent them from consolidating their Uni-Polar World Order into an enduring world-wide system of ‘Global Governance’ through a ‘Rules-based International Order’ under the 'Globalists' control and enforced by the U.S. and NATO. But now, as Meyssan suggests, only four years later, the Uni-Polar World Order has been toppled.

In its place a ‘Multi-Polar World’ order is emerging. I would like to suggest that the outlines of this emerging order are as follows:
1. The dominant pole of this Multi-polar World is that led by the alliance of Russia and China. Spanning Eurasia from the Pacific to the Mediterranean, this pole includes the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Eurasian Economic Union, and includes Iran, Iraq, Syria, and possibly, in the future, Turkey.

2. The second pole will be the remnants of the 'Globalist' empire, stripped, however, of Europe (ex. U.K.) and any Asian representation, i.e. the U.S., U.K., Israel and likely Canada.

3. A third group consists of countries that are currently either occupied militarily by the U.S. or are part of NATO, but are either economically dependent on China or are in economic competition with the U.S. This includes most of Europe, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, and the GCC countries (KSA, UAE, etc.). These countries cannot be considered as poles by themselves, for while some of them may have the economic weight to be considered a pole, such as Germany and Japan, they lack the geo-political weight. These countries are likely to try to escape from their status as American ('Globalist') vassals and become independent nations dealing equitably with all the poles of the new Multi-Polar World. In my view, it is unlikely that the EU will survive the birth of this new-world order in its current form. At best it is likely to revert back to a European free trade area, in which each country will recapture its sovereignty and its own currency.

4. A fourth group consists of countries that, while not being a part of the Russia/China pole will be under its wing, with Russia providing military, political and geo-political support, and China providing economic support. This group includes countries which are currently either under threat from the 'Globalists' (ie. Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Bolivia, etc.), are in turmoil due to exploitation by the 'Globalists' (ie. Chile, Argentina, Brazil, etc.) or are outright failed states (most of Africa). Under the protection of Russia and China, they will once again have a chance to overcome the anarchy of the past 20 or so years and to return to peaceful development.

5. A fifth group consists of what will likely end up as secondary poles of the Multi-Polar World. These are countries that today are both independent and have the geo-political and economic weight to continue to function independently. This group includes the likes of India and the ASEAN countries.

Uncertain is the time that it will take for this emerging order to stabilize. In my view, this depends to a great extent on whether Trump survives impeachment and wins in 2020. If he does then the emergence of the Multi-Polar World Order could be quite quick and painless, as it is aligned with the policies that Trump has been espousing from the beginning of his presidential campaign in 2015. To 'Make America Great Again' requires that the U.S. recover its sovereignty and redevelop its industrial power. After all, a countries wealth, and thus its power, is what it produces, and a country that doesn't produce as much as it consumes will, in the end, consume itself. To redevelop its industrial power the U.S. needs to isolate itself, as Trump is attempting to do behind a wall of tariff barriers and a devalued currency. The Multi-Polar World Order will allow the U.S. the opportunity it needs isolate, and then rebuild, itself. One must remember that it was the isolation of the U.S. in the 19th and early 20th centuries that enabled the U.S. to become so powerful in the first place.

If, on the other hand, Trump is either overthrown by the 'Globalists' or defeated in 2020 then the emergence of the Multi-Polar World Order will be fraught with conflict. The 'Globalists' will fight it every step of the way, using all tools at their disposal, and particularly the military muscle of the U.S. and NATO. For the 'Globalists' the Multi-Polar World Order means the dispossession of their power and wealth. However, I believe that will simply be a case of the losers continuing to fight long after the war has been lost. It is only a question of how much time that it will take, and death and destruction that will occur, before the U.S. and NATO are exhausted.

The emergence of the Multi-Polar World Order, once it stabilizes, is likely to usher in a new era of peace and human development, similar to that which the world experienced in the decades following WWII.

This Baghdadi killing is the fifth reported killing since 2014.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/abu-dua-captured-by-us-sof-that-s-the-leader-of-isis-aka-al-baghdadi, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-special-forces-carried-out-trump-approved-raid-to-kill-baghdadi/, https://www.debka.com/isis-leader-baghdadi-reported-killed-in-us-operation-in-syria/
DJ-Just like Osama bin Laden was in Pakistan-long time US ally, Baghdadi was in Turkish/western backed rebels controled area near the Turkish border in Idlib NW Syria.

Both AQ and IS are believed to be creations of the CIA.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iran-could-attack-israel-from-nearly-all-sides-israeli-general/, https://southfront.org/can-iran-to-fend-off-us-israeli-missile-or-drone-attack/

DJ-Besides from stealing Syrian oil https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/u-s-stealing-30-million-per-month-in-syrian-oil-tax-free-cash-to-swiss-bank-accounts the US wants to control eastern Syria to stop Iran (and China) from getting a connection to the mediterranean.

Unrest in https://www.debka.com/mivzak/eight-protesters-killed-in-iraq-by-live-shots-and-tear-gas-fired-by-police/ and https://www.debka.com/mivzak/nasrallah-warns-lebanons-nationwide-protest-could-lead-to-civil-war/ is also serving this US-Saudi-Israeli goal.

The build-up of US forces (for war against Iran) goes on https://www.debka.com/mivzak/us-deploys-stealth-f-22-raptors-at-saudi-prince-sultan-air-base/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-confirms-troops-returned-to-syria-from-iraq/, https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/heres-why-trumps-secure-syrias-oil-plan-will-be-impossible-implement
DJ-There is no legal bases for US forces occupy oil fields in an other country.

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/27-october-the-site-targeted-by-the-us-military-operation
DJ-Again, how come IS-leader Baghdadi was in western backed "moderate rebels" area near the Turkish border ?

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/26-october-reports-of-clashes-between-proassad-forces-andTurkish-backed forces in Ras al-Ain countryside

DJ-The Turkish backed "rebels" may be hard to control for Turkey. Also some Kurds will not stop fighting against Turkey and its proxies. Both Syria and Russia will try to control the fighting.

DJ-One could argue that "there is a battle for Asia" between the US and China. In that battle the US may be losing India https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/india-us-officially-suspend-defense-cooperation (India can do bussiness with Russia while the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor will connect China, via Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Turkey with the EU.)

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-playing-4-d-chess-game-middle-east-no-one-understands,
https://southfront.org/u-s-to-send-troops-battle-tanks-to-secure-syrian-oil-fields-report/

https://www.debka.com/trump-pivots-on-n-syria-some-us-troops-to-stay-one-air-base-retained/

DJ-The US want to keep troops in Syria-not far from the borders of Iraq and Jordan (Al Tanf). Iraq may not be happy with this-it will stimulate further protest against US (illegal since the 2003 war was against international law) presence.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-syrian-army-scores-advance-in-ne-latakia-amid-new-push-towards-jisr-al-shughour/, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-tanks-head-to-battlefield-to-confront-militants-at-turkish-border/

DJ-Since there are Turkish backed fighters in Idlib the confrontation between Turkey and the Syrian Arab Army (within the SAA SDF will become part of the SAA) is far from over. Russia and Iran will need to put more pressure on Turkey to stop its "support for terrorists".

DJ-Why is the Erdogan-Putin agreement important ?

1-It is one step closer to ending the "civil" war in/for Syria.
2-It gives Assad room to start the Idlib offensive.
3-It underlines that Russia (the Astana group with Turkey and Iran) can decide in this region. (And the US can not).
4-With peace-in some form-in NE Syria the China new-silk-road can go further.

Why is the Syria war something for AFT-forum ? Major pandemics are related to major wars. Refugees, poor/no hygiene, crowds of people-sometimes with bio-warfare-increase the risk of pandemics.

Countries like Syria, Iraq, Libya did have some form of public healthcare under their dictators. Western intervention destroyed the healthcare and replaced the dictators by worse dictators.

For Syria;
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/four-american-policy-failure-syria

https://southfront.org/syrian-army-and-russian-military-police-to-deploy-on-border-putin-and-erdogan-reach-agreement-on-northeastern-syria/,
https://www.debka.com/putin-obliges-erdogan-to-call-off-turkeys-operation-against-the-kurds-in-ne-syria/

https://southfront.org/syrian-army-completes-deployment-along-aleppo-hasakah-highway-east-of-euphrates-photos/
DJ-Turkey will have to pull back its forces from NE Syria and than can patrol-with Russia-in the area held by the S.A.A. (Assad forces).

https://southfront.org/us-troops-remain-in-syria-to-protect-oil-fields-from-terrorists-war-report/
DJ-I do not see how the US can keep forces in that area when there is no connection with Jordan. Iraq and Turkey do not support thes (illegal presence) US forces. They will have to give up their positions at a certain moment.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-armys-idlib-offensive-to-begin-at-any-moment/ DJ-With Russian help-sending Turkey a very clear message. Turkey will have to work within the Astana agreement and disarm radical groups in Idlib or face Russia/Syria doing so.

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/22-october-iraq-all-us-forces-that-withdrew-from-syria-receivedapproval to enter the Kurdistan Region so that they may be transported outside Iraq. There is no permission granted for these forces to stay inside Iraq."

DJ-The Kurds agreed to the US plan for pull back from the Turkish border. They placed themselves under Assad protection. Basicly they made a mess of their policies. On the longer term Kurds may find a way to unite in a cultural way over borders. It is the largest nation without their own state-and that is sad.

https://southfront.org/turkey-threatens-damascus-government-with-declaration-of-full-scale-war/,
https://www.debka.com/russian-forces-take-over-americas-n-syria-bases-e-syrian-airspace-and-concern-for-kurds/,
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-troops-escort-us-military-out-of-northern-aleppo-video/

DJ-Today Erdogan will meet Putin in Sochi-Russia. The "cease-fire" the US arranged with Turkey ends today-eventhough it did not stop the fighting.

Syria and Russia seem to be preparing for "military action" to stop Turkey in Syria. https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/21-october-the-sdf-and-saa-are-continually-repulsing-attacks, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/erdogan-pledges-to-take-necessary-actions-in-syria-after-putin-meeting/,
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-surrounds-turkish-military-near-border-town/,
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-receives-massive-tank-shipment-from-russia-ahead-of-new-offensive-satellite-photo/

DJ-Even if Turkey does not restart its offensive in NE Syria, Syria wants to regain control of all of Syria. A Syrian offensive in Idlib may be days/hours away.
Putin will try to convince Erdogan to pull Turkish forces out of Syria. My guess is Turkey will listen even when it may take some time. (The alternative would be Turkey getting isolated. Erdogan can not trust the US/EU, Iran is on the side of Syria. A Turkish war against Syria would be also a war against Iraq, Iran, Russia-Turkey will try to prevent that.)

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-armed-forces-will-not-withdraw-from-syrian-oil-fields-report/
DJ-The US want to control Syria from Iraq, Al Tanf in south Syria-but the Kurds may not want to work with the US, Iraq is not waiting for being a base for US military action in Syria. The US may restart IS to "fight against" but in that scenario both Syria and Iraq may ask Russia and Iran to deal with that (and in such a scenario-when everyone knows IS=US there will be no room left for the US in the region).

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/we-have-hours-left-turkish-ceasefire-edge-collapse-erdogan-gives-kurds-hours-flee-territory,
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/betrayal-and-deception-syria-prime-example-us-foreign-policy
R-E-S-P-E-C-T is what is missing in US foreign policy. From sanctions on EU allies, South Korea to using and dumping of the Kurds-when the outcome of the US pull back from Syria is that the EU will face another refugee crisis due to US madness, Turkey starts a war with Syria-we may see the end of NATO.

https://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=13599&start=30,
https://www.rt.com/news/471472-pompeo-turkey-military-action-ready/ (DJ-There seems to be still a number of US military in NE Syria (backed by IS ? The Kurds are against them, even the French talk with the Russians about their special forces in the region. The US "allowed"Turkey a smaller operation than Turkey may be planning.)
https://www.debka.com/mivzak/putin-phones-netanyahu-with-birthday-greetings-they-discuss-changes-in-syria/ but also https://www.debka.com/gantz-in-line-to-form-a-government-after-netanyahu-returns-the-premiership-mandate-to-the-president/ Gantz may be PM of Israel.

DJ-https://theduran.com/putins-syria-master-class-signals-end-of-regime-change-wars-video/ The Duran describing the Syria-war with the "west" (US/EU) on the side of regime change-against Assad-even if that meant supporting IS/AQ etc. Western "media" only blaming Assad for war crimes while closing their eyes for even worse insanity by western backed "moderate rebels" with AQ links.

The Russian intervention prevented in 2015 Damascus being taken over by salafast/wahabist extremists. Russia intervened because they did not want a major terrorist base close to southern Russia.

The failed coup attempt against Erdogan-by the US-pushed Turkey towards Russia. (DJ-The faillure of the EU to create a working base for Turkish EU-membership also pushed Turkey away from "the west"-the US wanted the EU to do more.)

During the Obama administration the US had no realistic diplomacy, went after regime change in Syria, Libya. While the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan went on.

Trump may be able to act in a diplomatic way-the US politics has gone mad-with some "politicians" doing everything they can to destroy Trump-even if this would start a major conflict.

At the end it is Putin who (helped by the US chaos) is able to talk to all sides.

https://www.rt.com/news/471260-trump-secured-the-oil-syria/
DJ-Is Trump thinking of leaving some US forces "protecting oil fields" in East Syria ? How does Trump think this will work ? Those forces will soon be isolated by Syria,Iran/Iraq, Russia (SIR). They will not tolerate a new -again US made-IS in that area.

On october 22 Putin will meet Erdogan in Sochi. Most likely the outcome will be that Turkey hands over the border area under Turkish control to Russia and Syria (under some conditions).

https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-october-18-2019-assad-troops-deploy-on-border-amid-120-hour-ceasefire/, https://syria.liveuamap.com/ Russia, Syria preparing for a major offensive against Idlib.

DJ-First reactions from the Kurds on the https://www.veteranstoday.com/2019/10/17/intel-drop-erdogan-and-pence-agree-to-fake-cease-fire-with-nobody-who-do-they-think-theyre-foolin/ seems to be welcoming an end-for 120 hrs-of fighting (pro-Turkish proxies, IS, AQ etc) but nobody is thinking of giving up any cm of land to the Turks.

https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/17-october-us-senator-martin-heinrich-under-this-socalled;
U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich: Under this so-called ceasefire, Kurdish forces and their families face the impossible choice of fleeing their homes or being ethnically cleansed. Because of Turkey's actions we should seriously reconsider its role in NATO and any future military weapons sales.

DJ-Erdogan and Pence agreed that Syria has to give up a stretch of fertile lands larger than Lebanon to Turkey-without talks to Kurds, Syria or anybody else.

https://www.debka.com/us-and-turkey-agree-on-syria-ceasefire-but-the-ball-is-still-in-the-moscow-damascus-court/ Erdogan and Putin will soon meet. Russia wants Syria to stay intact.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/kurdish-forces-block-syrian-army-russian-military-from-entering-raqqa-video/ and https://southfront.org/syrian-war-report-october-17-2019-syrian-army-entering-kobani-and-raqqa/
DJ-There could be some indications that the SDF is not as united as some think. SAA moving into the oilfields in East (Arab) Syria under Kurdish occupation (and a major source of income) will be a major test.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-military-unlikely-withdraw-syrias-key-oil-fields-report

DJ-I do not think the "cease fire" will work. https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/17-october-syrian-observatory-turkish-forces-completely-encircle Syrian Observatory: Turkish forces completely encircle the city of Ras al-Ain DJ-The Kurds and Syria do want to end the siege of Ras al-Ain, get control of all of the M4 motorway-and get the Turks and "allies" out as soon as possible.

DJ-Another issue is the movements of (pro)Iran forces from Iraq into East Syria. There may be still some US forces in their way. The US may find it harder to provide air-cover in time. The Kurds are no longer "friends"of the US https://southfront.org/trump-calls-pkk-bigger-threat-than-isis-as-senate-attempts-to-block-troops-withdrawal-from-syria/

(DJ-During the cold war the Soviet Union was an ally of the (communist) PKK. NATO did fight the Kurds were they could. )

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pan-Turkism
DJ-Some Turks believe in restoration of some form of a Turkish (Ottoman) Empire. In my opinion Turkey has not the strenght to do much-they are involved in Qatar, Libya-are fighting in Syria, Iraq. Turkey is in conflict with Greece and Cypres on a gas field in the mediterranean.
Turkey needs investors from China, Russian tourism, Iran oil/gas-they can not move into conflict with all of its neighbours.

https://www.debka.com/despite-erdogans-bravado-his-syrian-offensive-is-squeezed-in-a-us-russian-hug/
DJ-Russia and the US do not want Turkey-as a NATO member being pulled into a war with Syria. (If the US wants war with Iran Turkey may be usefull-but such a war would be very difficult to control and destroy western economies.)

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/10/the-win-win-win-win-plan-for-syrias-northeast-succeeds.html
Syria getting control over all of Syria, return of refugees from Turkey, Iran, Russia, China getting more links to the EU-but is that okay for the US ?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/syrian-debacle-actually-well-planned-chaos
DJ-Since 2001 the US strategy seems to be to create chaos in the Middle East. IS is a US creation to stop Russia, Iran, China. That goal is still there. I (DJ) doubt if the US is still in a position to keep creating more chaos. Even Saudi Arabia, UAE, and even Israel seems to be moving away from the US.

https://southfront.org/us-considering-ways-to-remove-b61-nuclear-bombs-from-incirlik-air-base-turkey-us-media/
DJ-The US may have to go for damage control. That means pulling back US military from Iraq, Afganistan and Al Tanf-south Syria-may even have to accept being forced out of Turkey.

The US started creating chaos in Afghanistan in the 70's "to give the Soviet Union their own Viet Nam". The Soviet Union pulled out of Afghanistan in 1989. NATO/US is in Afghanistan since 2001-as a result of the chaos they created in the seventies-and they are losing that war.

After using Saddam Hussein against Iran after the 79 Iran islamic revolution the US dumped Saddam Hussein and murdered him after the invasion of 2003. In Libya the same recepy-killing Gadaffi and replacing it by (planned) chaos (and western grab of oil/gas).

That strategy helped the investors in the Military Industrial Complex but destroyed the US (no investments in infra structure, education, healthcare).

The Middle East problem is made in the U.S.A. and they have had more than enough of it. Russia, Iran, China have had enough of "sanctions and insults" from he US. The end result is that "the best deal with the US is no deal at all".

With the EU being sanctioned by the US, trying to force the EU to buy US-LNG, US weapons "or else"-and a US made refugee crisis also the EU is moving away from the US (brexit=UK staying a US ally).

(Again) The outcome so far is the US losing ground in Asia-China becoming the new "super power".

We are not out of the conflict zone yet but the US ability to stop China is decreasing fast.

DJ-Some good articles;

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-kurds-face-stark-options-after-us-pullback;
From Washington’s perspective, everything happening in the volatile Iran-Iraq-Syria-Turkey spectrum is subject to two imperatives:

1) geopolitically, breaking what is regionally regarded as the axis of resistance: Iran, Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah; and

2) geostrategically, breaking the Chinese-led Belt and Road Initiative from being incorporated in both Iraq and Syria, not to mention Turkey.

When Erdogan remarked that the trilateral Ankara summit last month was “productive,” he was essentially saying that the Kurdish question was settled by an agreement among Russia, Turkey and Iran.
-
What’s happening is a quadruple win.

The US performs a face saving withdrawal, which Trump can sell as avoiding a conflict with NATO alley Turkey.

Turkey has the guarantee – by the Russians – that the Syrian Army will be in control of the Turkish-Syrian border.

Russia prevents a war escalation and keeps the Russia-Iran-Turkey peace process alive.

And Syria will eventually regain control of its oilfields and the entire northeast.
-
On the Iraq unrest;
But most of all, Abbas stressed: “Many people I talked to in Karbala think this is the American response to the Iraqi tilt towards China.”

That totally fits with this comprehensive analysis.

Iraq did not follow the – illegal – Trump administration sanctions on Iran. In fact it continues to buy electricity from Iran. Baghdad finally opened the crucial Iraq-Syria border post of al-Qaem. Prime Minister Adel Abdel Mahdi wants to buy S-400 missile systems from Russia.

He also explicitly declared Israel responsible for the bombing of five warehouses belonging to the Hashd al-Shaabi, the people mobilization units. And he not only rejected the Trump administration’s “deal of the century” between Israel and Palestine but also has been trying to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

https://southfront.org/putins-visits-to-uae-and-saudi-arabia-and-shift-of-balance-of-power-in-middle-east/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-air-force-intercepts-turkish-f-16-in-northern-syria-media/ and https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-aircraft-threaten-turkish-backed-fighters-who-came-very-close-to-american-troops-in-syria/
(DJ-For the moment US and Russia united against Turkey https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/15-october-senior-us-defense-official-says-turkeys-incursion goes further than agreed with US.

https://www.debka.com/mivzak/russian-su-35-jets-reportedly-thwart-turkish-air-strike-in-manbij/
DJ-Both Russia (and Iran, China) and the US try to get a grip on Turkey.

https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/10/article/what-is-more-important-to-putin-saudi-or-iran/ DJ Some people in the US simply do not understand Putin wants/needs both. Russia and China are working together-first to get a grip on EurAsia then to become the "new boss" replacing a bankrupt US. (Some US journalists are blind/live in a tunnelvision. US (and EU) politicians seem to live there as well-out of touch with a high speed changing reality that puts the US on the sidelines.)

DJ-Two good articles from Debka;

https://www.debka.com/mivzak/syrian-forces-confront-turkish-troops-at-kobani-and-manbij/
https://www.debka.com/russian-warning-halts-turkish-syria-operation-us-pullback-from-e-syria-too-opens-door-to-iran/

Basicly-Russia did allow Turkey "some movements against the Kurds" (for strategic reasons-to get the US, UK, French troops out and the SDF to work with Assad). Russia does not want (Pro)Turkish forces fighting the Syrian Arab Army. The SAA without Russian air cover is not able to stop the (Pro)Turkish forces (DJ-Some of those "rebels/terrorists" are hardly under Turkish control. The Proxies do the frontline "dirty work" backed by Turkish aircover, artillery and some special services (bridge laying etc))

There is a risk of a Russian-Turkish confrontation, Russian forces/PMC's are moving with the SAA.

https://www.debka.com/mivzak/putin-begins-visit-to-riyadh-just-one-month-after-irans-attack-on-saudi-oil/

https://southfront.org/turkish-backed-forces-announce-advance-on-manbij-clash-with-syrian-army/

https://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=13616

-US putting sanctions on Turkey
-China telling Turkey to stop the invasion into Syria
-https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/erdogan-holding-50-us-tactical-nukes-hostage-trump-authorizes-sanctions

Some good background articles;

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/margolis-more-stupid-wars-syria DJ-Turkey only has Russia, Iran to turn to, the EU/US do not want to talk with Erdogan. But when Turkey leaves NATO SE Europe/SW Asia "goes to the Russians".

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/compromise-or-genocide-putins-deal-century-rapidly-unfolding-syria DJ-The Kurds could let themselves getting killed by https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/10/the-moa-week-in-review-ot-2019-59.html "former IS fighters" and other "moderate western backed terrorists" or deal with Assad and Russia.

(DJ-A long term solution for the Kurds could be "cultural cooperation cross borders". The chance for Kurds to get their own state was not backed by the US anytime the last 5 years.)

https://syria.liveuamap.com/, https://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=13601&start=50

DJ-Pro-Assad forces are moving high speed to take over Kurdish held area's. The SDF-for now-is needed to fight with "pro Turkish groups", most likely not under Turkish control, and the Turkish Army.

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201910131077037552-live-updates-turkey-conducts-offensive-in-syria-for-5th-day-amid-growing-pushback/ DJ-Both France and the US still have troops in NE Syria. To be realistic, events go that fast they may be surrounded in the coming 48 hrs by pro-Assad forces.

Today we will find out;
-How Turkey will respond to the Syria-Kurdish agreement
-Will Russia go for a "no-fly-zone" (some Kurdish held airbases are now under SAA control)
-Will there be control on IS camps (maybe Iraq troops moving in-for the moment ?)
-How will Iran, Israel respond ?

https://www.debka.com/task-of-stopping-turkey-passes-from-trump-to-putin-syrian-army-defends-threatened-kurdish-towns/
Already now, since the Syrian government is not up to a full-scale battle with the Turkish army without Russian army and air force support, Turkey and Russian stand at the threshold of a major military clash.

How Putin handles this standoff is open to question. He may be able to resolve it by giving Erdogan a quiet ultimatum to back off or face direct hostilities with the Russian army. Meanwhile, the Russian leader comes out of the mess created by the Turkish operation having attained the overriding goal of his intervention in the Syrian conflict: to bring all parts of the country under the central rule of the Assad regime.

DJ-From the same article;
Feeling abandoned by the US pullback, the Kurds quickly agreed to relinquish their struggle for an independent state and settle for autonomous status for their northeastern provinces in return for the Syrian army taking over the defense of their endangered towns.

The deal, which took effect within 24 hours, still has rough edges to be smoothed out, such as:

The exact nature of Kurdish autonomous rule and relations with central government in Damascus.
The borders of Kurdish-ruled lands.
The fate of the SDF.
How far will Russian President Vladimir Putin be willing to push back against Turkish President Recep Erdogan for halting his army’s advance into northern Syria.
(DJ-Since the Kurds were a small minority prior to the uprising in Syria, most Kurds in Syria come from Turkey.)

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/10/14/608622/US-Donald-Trump-Turkey-Syria-war; The United States is using “the Turks as de facto mercenaries” in Syria in order to continue Washington's destabilization effort in the war-torn country, an analyst says.

DJ-First images of mass murders by pro-Turkish forces in NE Syria (the same forces the west supported in Idlib as "moderate rebels" eventhough they are linked with alquaida, IS etc. Saudi sponsored terrorists).

https://southfront.org/turkish-backed-forces-execute-head-of-pro-sdf-syrian-political-party/
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/horror-turk-troops-pull-unarmed-civilians-from-cars-and-shoot-them-all-in-syria

DJ-Ofcourse western "media" keeps this out of the news as well;

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/us-and-french-soldiers-injured-by-turkish-artillery-hits-on-their-base-in-syria,
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkey-bombed-us-special-forces-by-mistake-in-northern-syria-newsweek/ (Newsweek left out there were US soldiers killed by Turkey-a NATO partner), https://southfront.org/turkish-artillery-accidentally-shelled-us-forces-deployed-in-northern-syria/

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/putin-casts-doubt-in-turkeys-ability-to-contain-isis-threat-in-syria/

DJ-There are also reports the US shared info on Kurdish positions with the Turkish Army. https://www.businessinsider.nl/us-shared-intelligence-turkey-may-have-aided-attack-on-kurds-2019-10?international=true&r=US

DJ Afrin gets repeated, the Kurds hang on to an illusion. https://southfront.org/kurdish-led-sdf-cries-foul-over-rapid-turkish-advance-in-northern-syria/

DJ-If there are indeed talks between Turkey and Syria-under Russian/Iran supervision those talks better bring results soon. Syria can not accept the Kurdish NE part of Syria being overrun by pro-Turkish (and IS linked) extremists. Syria can not deal with Turkey on its own.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/10/trump-brings-troops-back-home-to-saudi-arabia.html
DJ-The "west"keeps doing deals with the main IS sponsor Saudi Arabia. Of course the goal is to control oil and gas. The less people that are around the better. IS has shown to be very good in de-population.

carbon20, I think Trump is correct in saying the US should get out of the Middle East(ern conflicts). The endless wars in Afghanistan (since 2001), Iraq (2003), Syria (2011) Libya, Yemen etc. are not in the long-term US interests (only when you make weapons, protect oil interests).

Syria, Russia, Iran have told Turkey the Turkish invasion is unacceptable. They are in a position to stop Turkey. (Russia and China can stop bussiness with Turkey on tourism, new Silk Road etc. Turkey would like to be the link between Asia and the EU-but is making that option impossible now.)

There is a powerstruggle in the US with "democrats" trying to get rid of Trump (and get clinton and biden to run the US-not realy an improvement in my opinion). The CIA seems to be working against the pentagon, IS and alquada are US proxy armies.

When Trump pulls out US forces out of Iraq, Afghanistan there will be (some) chaos-hopefully others can fill the vacuüm.

The US problem goes much further than Trump-the US politics is a shame for the leading western nation.

There are some politicians in the US that understand you can not sanction almost every country in the world and expect friendly relations.

For the Kurds it would be wise when they start working with Russia to at least have some protection in Syria. The faillure to do so is a Kurdish (repeated) mistake (they made that mistake also during the Afrin-operations).

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-eyes-oil-fields-across-euphrates-as-turkey-begins-northern-syria-operation/
DJ-A further lack of realism from the Kurdish side may be the end of any Kurdish dream of a Kurdish State.
With most Kurds fighting Turkey, little contol of IS POW's and unprotected oil-fields Syria (and Iran, Russia) will not let IS get in control of oilfields again.
Further Kurdish insanity may give the Kurds Turkish soldiers north of them and Syrian, Russian, Iran military in their back.

There are lots of updates etc. https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/201910091076998735-live-updates-turkeys-offensive-peace-spring-in-northeastern-syria-begins/,
https://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=13601&sid=54ef239b0c64f32138f389115c2c8492&start=20,
https://syria.liveuamap.com/

But the situation is complex and a lot of propaganda and false claims make the news. Basicly-the Kurds have no air force, Turkey has the second largest NATO army and thousends of proxy fighters. The Kurds do not have a realistic chance to keep positions very long.

Chump has Blood on his hands now.....

I wonder what the Fool will do next...

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/full-turkish-assault-ne-syria-coming-next-24-hours-kurds-make-late-night-appeal and https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/syrian-kurds-say-partnership-assad-or-russia-considered-if-turkey-invades

DJ-"Shadowdancing" on the eve of a Turkish invasion that may not come (at least not as a major operation).

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-deploys-large-number-of-soldiers-to-deir-ezzor-for-potential-euphrates-offensive/,
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-military-spotted-south-of-afrin-city-photo/

DJ-The Kurds/SDF are pulling reserve forces north-so SE Syria is "open".
The Kurds may allow pro-Assad forces there to avoid IS like groups becoming a problem for the SDF facing the Turks.
Also in the already under (pro) Turkish controlled NW Syria Turkey is loking for "rebels" to fight the Kurds. That area may also get less defensed-giving the SAA (etc) room to move north.

The only realistic scenario left for the SDF is https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/sdf-considering-partnership-with-assad-to-fight-off-turkish-invasion/. When the Kurds fail to work with Assad Afrin-scenario is next for other parts of Syria.

https://iraq.liveuamap.com/ DJ-Increase of tensions in North (Kurdish) Iraq.

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/10/08/608204/Russia-warns-actions-that-could-stall-peace-process-in-Syria

DJ-Russia wants to speed up talks in Syria to get out of the war. The outcome could be (I speculate) Russian observers on the Syria-Turkey border ?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/major-policy-shift-us-pulls-out-syria-ahead-imminent-turkish-invasion;
In a major policy shift that abandons nearly a decade of American policy in Syria, the White House announced late Sunday night that US forces in northern Syria would step aside to allow a planned Turkish offensive. The decision follows late-night haggling between President Trump and President Erdogan, who had threatened a "land and air" offensive "as soon as today or tomorrow."

The United States Government has pressed France, Germany, and other European nations, from which many captured ISIS fighters came, to take them back, but they did not want them and refused. The United States will not hold them for what could be many years and great cost to the United States taxpayer. Turkey will now be responsible for all ISIS fighters in the area captured ove the past two years in the wake of the defeat of the territorial "Caliphate" by the United States."
(DJ-https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/7-october-turkish-media-14-000-fsa-fighters-to-participate Those IS fighters will most likely be used as pro-Turkish fighters against the Kurds. Maybe Russia will "stop" this-bomb them away.)

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/breaking-us-forces-allegedly-withdraw-from-turkish-border/;
According to the Syrian Democratic Forces, this Turkish military operation will cause a resurgence of the Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL/IS, Daesh) in the regions they control.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-special-forces-open-new-euphrates-crossing-between-sdf-saa-lines-photos/ and https://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2019/7-october-the-first-consequences-of-the-us-withdrawal--failure
SAA and Russian forces take over (some) US positions (working with the Kurds ???) https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/10/07/608055/US-gives-green-light-Turkish-offensive-Syria

https://www.rt.com/news/470330-europe-new-refugee-crisis-seehofer/

https://sputniknews.com/military/201910071076978054-russia-to-implement-contracts-for-delivering-weapons-to-iraq/, https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/10/07/608053/Iraq-protests-evidence-paid-snipers,
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/israel-to-begin-new-air-defense-project-focused-on-cruise-missile-attack-from-iraq-media/

DJ-Is the US moving out of the Middle East or escalating the (many) conflicts in the area-or both ?

With US forces pulling out in some Kurdish held parts of Syria Kurdish groups may start working-on some conditions-with pro-Assad, Russian forces (?)

The "unrest" in Iraq seems to be another cia-job. It is related to events in Syria and meant to stop Iran, but also to stop Russia and China. Most likely this US operation will fail but can bring a lot of more damage.

The EU is not happy with;
-1 higher energy prices
-2 The US punishing Iraq for a electricity contract with a German company in stead of a US company
-3 Another refugee-crisis, more (US made) wars
-4 The US still making any Iran-deal impossible (even with Macron, Merkel pushing for US-Iran talks)

The gap between the EU and the US is only getting wider.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/saudi-crown-princes-final-option;
Open support for MBS will be in place very soon, with Russian president Vladimir Putin expected to head to Riyadh very soon. In stark contrast to the waning Trump-MBS friendship, Putin is openly a big supporter of the crown prince’s strategy and dreams. Russian sovereign wealth fund RDIF and others are flocking to Riyadh’s hotels as further evidence of Russian support. Moscow appears set to capitalize on Washington’s weak response to the recent attacks in Saudi Arabia, and MBS will be eager to take advantage. A closer Saudi-Russian relationship may end up helping to restrain Iran, as the Islamic Republic is heavily dependent on Moscow’s support.

(DJ-Saudi Arabia moving away from the US would again bring an end to the US-petro-$ closer. Yet another indication for the total failure of US foreign policy.
Turkey moving into Syria-if it happens-would do a lot of damage to NATO.)

DJ-Allthough there is no doubt some reality in the Russian claim of US support for IS to block the Iraq-Syria border https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/isis-carries-out-attack-against-syrian-troops-in-deir-ezzor/- I (DJ) also think https://www.debka.com/the-hidden-hand-stirring-up-unrest-in-iraq-at-cost-of-100-lives-4000-injured-sadr-at-tehrans-behest/ may be close to reality.

From the article;
This government was finally established as a weak compromise after a long stalemate following Iraq’s general election last year. It has never been stable enough to pursue a clear and consistent policy on any issue, least of all the country’s profound security and economic woes.

The protesters’ grievances are convincing. Unemployment runs at 7.9pc – up to 20pc among young men – while a quarter of the population of 40 million lives in abject poverty with an average income of $2 a day.

Their plight is all the more painful in a country that holds around a quarter of the world’s oil reserves and exports 5 million barrels day (roughly half of the Saudi output). Iraq could be one of the wealthiest countries of the Middle East if only its earnings did not vanish inside a convoluted web of corruption.

The wave of disaffection gives Iran fertile soil for its plan to dominate Baghdad; and it gained an extra fillip from the removal of a major obstacle from its path.
In the second half of September, the prime minister sparked the first demonstrations by the removal of the popular Gen. Abdul Wahhab al-Saadi as commander of the Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Service to a post in the defense ministry. This service is the only effective operational branch of Iraq’s armed services. The general was acclaimed as a national hero for leading the operation that routed the Islamic State and drove the jihadists from the roughly 50 percent of the country’s territory they had seized. Al-Saadi is also admired as that rare bird, an honest official. Tehran and its satellite Iraqi Shiite militias found in the popular general a major impediment to their plans to gain control of Baghdad and the national army.
-
DEBKAfile’s sources recall that the Shiite cleric Muqtada Sadr, head of the largest bloc in the Iraqi parliament, paid an unexpected visit to Tehran on Sept. 11. This visit caused much surprise because Sadr was reputed to be a leading opponent of Iran’s presence in Baghdad. Yet, all of a sudden, he appeared in a photo together with Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and its Middle East commander, the Al-Qods chief Gen. Qassem Soleimani. The content of their conversation in the ayatollah’s private office was never revealed. But it is self-evident that Soleimani’s participation could only mean that religion was not their main topic.

On Saturday, Oct. 5, when Prime Minister Abdel-Mahdi lifted the curfew over Baghdad, Muqtadr called for a new general election in Iraq. It may be assumed that, acting on the deal he reached during his Tehran visit, he is aiming for an election to grant his own faction plus the pro-Iranian militias’ political groups a parliamentary majority. They will then have the power to annul the prime minister’s decrees in recent weeks to disband those militias and integrate them in Iraqi army units. The door would then be open for Tehran to gain a solid foothold in Baghdad.

https://www.rt.com/news/470289-saudi-kurdish-tv-stormed-baghdad/ DJ-may also indicate shia-militia.

The US-Saudi-Israel (USI) against Russia-Iran-China (RIC) conflict is also https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019/10/05/607891/Philippines-Duterte-Russia-ties-Sochi-US-criticism

DJ-China's strategy in Hong Kong looks like;
1 contain it to Hong Kong avoid further spread
2 make Hong Kong suffer for the protests (less tourism, companies moving to Shanghai, economic damage)
3 put in more and more police, security forces etc. to break down protest but avoid as much as possible a major crack down.
For China Hong Kong is a local problem, keeping the economy going, in the middle of a pork-crisis, means getting more control on oil/gas around the globe.

China is buying agriculture products from eastern Russia, air defense also from Russia. The plan to send over 5000 "security staff" to protect Chinese investments in Iran is also part of the struggle.
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/china-launches-hd-satellite-monitor-belt-and-road-projects The New Silk Road is essential for China's plan to become a major world player.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/europe-cracks-are-beginning-show, https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/thinking-unthinkable-saying-unsayable

DJ-The EU-in different steps-is moving towards "working with Asia". From northstream1+2, turkstream to railroad connections with China European investments in Asian countries the "western dominance" of the world is coming to an end.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/09/us-ships-more-air-defense-systems-that-do-not-work-to-saudi-arabia.html

The US (in some ways maybe with UK) will not be able to stop Asia as the dominant market (with over 50% of the global population).

DJ-In my opinion the US "may change positions", dump the EU to compete with the EU in Asia. Problem for a UNITED states is that working with a not very united Europe may be easier, also landroutes make a difference.

https://southfront.org/russian-defense-minister-on-power-balance-and-current-military-and-political-situation-on-global-scene/,
https://southfront.org/the-saker-crises-the-middle-east-and-a-few-hopefully-useful-pointers/

DJ-Of course attacking Iran for the Houthi/Yemen attack on Saudi oil installations (a military target, Saudi-main IS sponsor-is in a genocide-war with Yemen (with US/UK a.o. help) is pretty insane.

Still a lot of US "politicians" think it is a good idea. Trump goes back to his election promise of getting the US out of never ending wars-at least by not starting another even worse war (with Iran-indirect with China wich plans to put over 5000 security personal to protect Chinese investments in Iran. China may have done something like that in Venezuela-also under US attack).

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/triumph-candidate-trumps-foreign-policy-backing-war-iran

DJ-When there is no end to those wars the next crisis is around the corner. https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/09/the-crisis-over-the-attack-on-saudi-oil-infrastructure-is-over-we-now-wait-for-the-next-one.html

https://southfront.org/u-s-deploys-advanced-electronic-warfare-plane-in-middle-east/

DJ-The only way out is in words not in bombs. The "Iran-deal" may not be Trump wanted but could be-for the moment-an opening for talks.

A lot of damage is already the result of a US foreign policy best described as "bizar". Get rid of Saudi wahabist extremists that sponsor IS terrorists that are out of CIA control. A way to do so is talks with Russia, China on these kind of wahabist countries that get in power by selling oil. "We"have to stop doing anything with "them", should not enrich our fundamental enemies.

(Moderate muslims are the majority-the west did attack them, and orthodox christians-in Iraq, Syria-stupid !)

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/29874/the-strike-on-saudi-oil-facilities-was-unprecedented-and-it-underscores-far-greater-issues
The angle of impact is not an indication of were the weapons came from.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/covert-intel-u-s-military-orders-unprecedented-activations-not-seen-since-iraq-war DJ-Hal Turner hints that the US is preparing military action.
A possible scenario could be an attack on Yemen targets (that claim the attack).

https://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=13553

https://sputniknews.com/world/201909181076831302-zarif-on-us-blaming-iran-for-saudi-aramco-attack-washington-should-look-at-realities-in-region/

https://theduran.com/oil-at-100-per-barrel-attack-on-saudi-refineries-could-shake-oil-market-further/

DJ-Yemen has warned there will be more attacks on Saudi oil installations. A US/western attack on Iran will crash the global economy. Even when Russia and China stay out of the fighting the time for diplomacy is gone. We may find ourself in a "colder war" than we can imagine.

AS a result "free press" (including internet) will become a thing of the past. A modern form of totalitarian "democracy" (run by big companies) will be "normal".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/This_Perfect_Day, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four may be to optimistic.

A de facto global war in combination with climate collapse may bring the end.

DJ-I do not believe Iran was involved in any attack on Saudi oil installations. Iran needs good relations both with Russia and China-and both countries are also involved in investments in Saudi Arabia.

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/2115709/china-offers-buy-5-cent-aramco-directly-giving-it and https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/16/new-security-fears-jeopardize-saudi-aramcos-public-stock-offering.html

China would like to get more control over Saudi energy-an Iran attack would frustrate China's interest.

Saudi Arabia is spending billions per month on the Yemen war-Saudi needs a "better price" for oil and gas. Both KSA and Israel fear Iran but know they can not win from Iran in a war without US/NATO support.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/17/saudi-arabia-has-to-explain-how-its-oil-assets-in-abqaiq-were-attacked-says-ex-us-diplomat.html After the US and China Saudi is spending the most on weapons. How was it possible that the saterday attack could take place ????

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2019/09/damage-at-saudi-oil-plant-points-to-well-targeted-swarm-attack.html;
The hits were extremely precise. The Yemeni armed forces claimed it attacked the facility with 10 drones (or cruise missiles). But the hits on these targets look like neither. A total of 17 hits with such precise targeting lets me assume that these were some kind of drones or missiles with man-in-the-loop control. They may have been launched from within Saudi Arabia.

https://theduran.com/war-with-iran-only-likely-in-2nd-presidential-term/;
The drone attacks on the Aramco oil refinery at Abqaiq and Khurais oil field is – in my opinion – one of the best carried out operations in decades. It’s so open to interpretation, and it serves the hegemon’s narrative so well. If the Houthis have such tactical and strategic capabilities, why didn’t they deploy them sooner against Saudi Arabia? Something must have changed. They must have received better equipment, training or specialists, plus intel. Or maybe the Saudis deliberately let their guard down? The whole thing doesn’t smell right. If it was indeed carried out by Iran via proxy, then it’s a hands down master stroke; the message being: that’s how strong we are, and we can inflict a lot worse if you invade us.

Putting that question aside, war with Iran, even if it would appease the Zionists and the Saud crime family, it would kill Trump’s chances of reelection. He can’t win simply with the hardcore republicans, he needs the moderate vote too. And even his loyalists, some of them at least, are deploring his hawkish policy toward Iran – because he vowed to keep the country out of another Middle Eastern quagmire.

Israeli propaganda claims; https://www.debka.com/exclusive-iran-shot-missiles-from-khuzestan-drones-from-w-iraq-at-saudi-oil-facilities/ fit in with an "anti-Trump" campain.

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/468935-saudi-oil-field-drone-attack/
KSA has US weapons-do they do their job ? https://www.rt.com/news/468948-putin-saudi-arabia-missiles/;Russian President Vladimir Putin has suggested Saudi Arabia should buy Russian air defense systems to protect its oil facilities from drone attacks, pointing to Iran and Turkey, who operate S-300 and S-400 missiles, respectively.

https://www.rt.com/business/468985-oil-surge-100-saudi-attacks/
A US attack on Iran would "crash" the global economy.

https://www.defconwarningsystem.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=13544&start=60 Eventhough there is talk of US military action against Iran for the false flag/Yemen attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure-I (DJ)-do not see a major US action against Iran as very likely.

Not only one could question wether Iran was involved in this attack (maybe even the U.A.E.-now also in conflict with KSA played a role-by giving Yemen info), Russia and China will make very clear they will do all they can to "limit damage" from any US actions.

China, India, but also Turkey, Pakistan a.o. most likely even the EU "will not welcome further US actions" as a result from Trump breaking the Iran-deal (mostly because Obama made that deal).

In my opinion it would be wise when Trump went on a diplomatic offensive. For now-if you want peace in any region you go to Russia for diplomacy, China for investment-if you want war you go to the US.