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China Investigates SARS Like Pneumonia Disease

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    Posted: January 23 2020 at 6:27pm
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[AGREED!]

China coronavirus: six tested in UK as first death confirmed outside Hubei province - live news

Patient in Hebei has died; possible cases in Scotland and Belfast come as World Health Organisation committee says ‘too early’ to declare emergency

    Five people tested in Scotland amid reports of possible Belfast case
    China: five cities in lockdown as lunar new year festivities scrapped
    What is the Wuhan coronavirus and how worried should we be?

US investigating second suspected case of Chinese virus

Authorities in Texas are investigating a second suspected case on US soil of the coronavirus virus, officials said.

Brazos County, northwest of Houston, “is investigating a suspected case of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV),” officials wrote in a statement on Facebook.

“The patient traveled from Wuhan, China, where the coronavirus originated.

“Health care providers were aware of public health guidance on novel coronavirus and quickly recognized that the patient met the criteria for coronavirus testing and is being kept isolated at home, while the precautionary testing is done.”

A blood sample from the patient has to be tested at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) before the case if confirmed.

If confirmed, the patient would be the second person to be infected with the virus in the US after a man in his 30s near Seattle reported himself to authorities on January 19.

He is said to be recovering well and health officials have said he will be released soon.

Martin Hibberd, Professor of Emerging Infectious Disease at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, has given his view on the World Health Organisation not declaring the coronavirus outbreak a global emergency.

He said: “This announcement is not surprising as more evidence may be needed to make the case of announcing a PHEIC.

“WHO were criticised after announcing the pandemic strain of novel H1N1_2009, when the virus was eventually realised to have similar characteristics to seasonal influenza and is perhaps trying to avoid making the same mistake here with this novel coronavirus.

“To estimate the true severity of this new disease requires identifying mild or asymptomatic cases, if there are any, while determining the human to human transmission rate might require more evidence.

“However, all this new evidence needs to be rapidly obtained over the next few days if the world is to be as prepared as possible, so WHO should issue a different type of alert to mobilise a full investigation.”

Programmes to speed up the development of vaccines against coronavirus have received a funding boost.

The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), partially financed by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, will fund three programmes with the aim being to advance nCoV-2019 vaccine candidates into clinical testing as quickly as possible.

CEPI aims to develop vaccines for new and emerging diseases before they become global health emergencies.

It said it has moved with great urgency to promote the development of new vaccines against the emerging threat of nCoV-2019, adding that the novel coronavirus represents the first new epidemic disease of note to emerge since CEPI’s founding at Davos in 2017.

Richard Hatchett, CEO of CEPI, said: “Given the rapid global spread of the nCoV-2019 virus the world needs to act quickly and in unity to tackle this disease.

“Our intention with this work is to leverage our work on the MERS coronavirus and rapid response platforms to speed up vaccine development.

“There are no guarantees of success, but we hope this work could provide a significant and important step forward in developing a vaccine for this disease.

“Our aspiration with these technologies is to bring a new pathogen from gene sequence to clinical testing in 16 weeks - which is significantly shorter than where we are now.”

2h ago 20:07

An 18th person in China has died from the virus.

The 80-year-old man died in Hebei province, near the capital Beijing, on Wednesday.

It is the first confirmed death outside Hubei province, in central China.

Updated at 8.19pm GMT

3h ago 19:49

Dr Jeremy Farrar, a medical researcher and director of The Wellcome Trust, said it respects the advice of the World Health Organization’s Emergency Committee to not declare a global emergency but says this must be kept under constant review.

He said: “Countries should act now on the recommendations made by the committee on how best to prepare and respond to this epidemic. There is no need to wait.

“The decision does not change the fact that the urgent focus must remain on identifying the gaps in understanding of this virus, and on a continued robust, coordinated global public health response.

“This outbreak and the speed with which this new virus has spread in China and travelled across borders, is a reminder of how vulnerable we are globally to outbreaks of infectious diseases known and unknown.

“Travel restrictions may be important in buying time, to signal the seriousness of the situation and may help reduce the impact, but are unlikely stop this epidemic.”

Lorenzo Tondo

An Italian singer was hospitalised after showing “suspected symptoms’’ of the coronavirus including a cough and fever.

She started feeling sick after returning home from a tour of Asia that included the area of Wuhan.

Tests for the virus that infected the singer, who has not been named publicly, are proceeding.

“The patient is currently in contact isolation at the Infectious Diseases Department,’’ a note from the hospital read.

“She is receiving the necessary treatments pending test results’.”

3h ago 19:37

Universities across the UK say they are monitoring the coronavirus outbreak as one institution warned students thinking of heading home for the Chinese New Year that they would face being quarantined on their return.

The University of Chester said it has notified its students currently in the UK that if they return to China for Chinese New Year they will not be readmitted without a suitable quarantine period.

The University of Aberdeen, which has a partnership with Wuhan University, said it was not aware of any students in Wuhan - where the outbreak is thought to have originated - who have returned from the area recently.

But a spokesman said: “The university is aware of five members of staff who have visited Wuhan during the outbreak, four of whom returned to the university three or more weeks ago.

“The remaining member of staff has a non-teaching role and is working from home as a precautionary measure.

“Advice regarding travel precautions has been issued to staff and students in line with Government guidance.”

A Newcastle University spokesman said it had issued protection advice to around 300 students who have links to the Hubei province at the centre of the health scare, as well as offering support for those concerned.

A spokesman said: “We have arranged a dedicated health event for any student arriving from China in the last month, ensuring they register with a doctor.”

Universities have followed Foreign Office advice warning people not to travel to the region affected.

A spokesman for the University of Dundee said it has issued advice to students recently in China and said they should be careful if receiving items, especially food, from areas where the virus is present.

It runs a joint education partnership with Wuhan University, with 34 students on the programme in Dundee who arrived in September.

Five staff returned from a visit to Wuhan last week, the spokesman added.

He said no health concerns have been raised among either group, adding: “We will continue to monitor the situation, taking advice from the relevant agencies as to appropriate action.”

A spokesman for the University of Nottingham, which has a campus in the Chinese city of Ningbo, said: “We are not aware of any staff or students in the affected areas in China.

“However, the university is keeping students informed of the latest advice by UK and Chinese health authorities, including precautionary measures such as good hand and respiratory hygiene.”

3h ago 19:23

Graeme Wearden

Top experts on infectious diseases held a hastily-arranged press conference on the Coronavirus at the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier today.

Jeremy Farrar, of the Wellcome Trust, gave reporters a swift explanation -- about how the virus probably jumped from bats to humans at a market in Wutan, before then starting to spread between humans.

The fact the virus spreads between humans through the respiratory route makes it particularly serious, Farrar explained; experts have been worrying about this happening for some time.

Farrar said: “We want to keep a calm, moderated approach, but we need to take this incredibly seriously”.
Farfer, who says he’s “very concerned” about the situation, also warned against thinking of it as a China-only problem.

“This will become a global issue. This isn’t just a China issue, it’s going to affect us all.”

Richard Hatchett, Chief Executive Officer of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness and Innovations (CEPI), announced that three new partnerships with vaccine producers have just been agreed.

“Our hope is to have these vaccines developed very rapidly and moved into human trials soon, maybe as soon as this summer,” Hatchett said.

Hatchett and Farrar both spoke about the importance of using non-pharmaceutical interventions, until a vaccine is developed. That includes public health measures - hand-washing, keeping people apart, masks, and travel restrictions.
Farrar’s hunch is that the coronavirus will have a lower mortality rate than the SARS epidemic 28 years ago, which killed 788 people. But if it spreads faster and further than SARS, and isn’t controlled in time, then the deathtoll could be higher than SARS. But there’s a lot of uncertainty.

He reminded reporters that the influenza epidemic a century ago had a low mortality rate, but killed 50m people because it spread so far.



Source:   https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/23/coronavirus-china-virus-flu-scotland-testing-wuhan-live-news-updates
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2020 at 2:33pm
This virus has been "Out and About "

Since before Christmas,

Incubation is 7/10days ....

All measures of control are pointless...
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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NHK Reportedly saying Japan has confirmed a second case from Wuhan male who was visiting Tokyo... Trying to find link to a story

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[Overkill?]


Coronavirus outbreak: doctors use robot to treat first known US patient

]American citizen in his 30s was admitted to Washington state hospital on Monday after trip to China.

Hallie Golden in Seattle

Thu 23 Jan 2020 00.28 GMT
Last modified on Thu 23 Jan 2020 00.37 GMT

Satish Pillai, right, a medical officer for the CDC, speaks on Tuesday following the announcement of the first known person in the US with the new coronavirus strain.

Satish Pillai, right, a medical officer for the CDC, speaks on Tuesday following the announcement of the first known person in the US with the new coronavirus strain. Photograph: Carla K Johnson/AP

Doctors have been using a robot to treat the first person known to have been admitted to hospital in the US with a new strain of the coronavirus, as part of an effort to prevent the spread of the disease, which has killed at least 17 people in China and infected hundreds more.

The man in his thirties was admitted to the special pathogen unit in a hospital in Everett, Washington, on Monday. The US citizen had recently returned from a trip to central China and had been diagnosed in Seattle.

Dr George Diaz, chief of the infectious disease section for Providence regional medical center, told the Guardian the patient was in a “satisfactory condition” on Wednesday. He did not give an update on how long the patient would remain in the unit.

Diaz said he had sat outside a window of the patient’s 20ft-by-20ft room to operate the robot, which was equipped with a camera, microphone and stethoscope. It is one of many ways the hospital has worked to reduce risk of the virus spreading.

Diaz said the patient was picked up from his home and taken to the hospital by ambulance. He was brought to the isolation unit in an Isopod, which is a closed gurney, and then allowed to move around inside his room once it was secured.

The virus is thought to have originated around Wuhan, in Hubei province, where more than 540 people have been hospitalized. The World Health Organization (WHO) has been considering declaring the growing viral pneumonia outbreak in China to be a public health emergency of international concern.


Symptoms of fever, cough and difficulty breathing have also been reported in Thailand, Japan and South Korea. Most of those confirmed to have died of the illness had previous medical conditions and were 60 or older, and all were located in China.

This is the first time the Providence regional medical center in Everett has admitted a patient into its special pathogen unit, according to Diaz. The hospital and its staff have been preparing for the possibility since 2015, when the hospital created the unit in response to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa.

“Every few weeks [we’re] doing drills and training like you would for an earthquake or fire drill or something like that, and so you’re always trying to maintain a state of readiness,” he said. “The wheels were greased enough that it wasn’t hard to get the process rolling to activate all the procedures that we had put in place.”

The hospital has two rooms in the unit, but it’s working on plans to prepare at least 10 additional rooms, should there be a need.

The hospital is part of a large health system made up of dozens of hospitals and hundreds of clinics and urgent care centers in seven states. Since admitting the patient in Washington state, all of these facilities have activated a screening tool for the virus.

“Now when someone, for example, wants to go to an ER, the first thing that the person on the other end will ask is have you traveled to China in the past 14 days or been close to someone who’s traveled to China in the past 14 days,” said Diaz.

There is only one entry point for the special pathogen unit, which is guarded by security officers, said Diaz. Visitors wear a special type of helmet called a CAPR, as well full body protection.

Washington’s governor, Jay Inslee, said in a statement on Tuesday that health departments at the local and state levels were prepared for this type of situation, and should there be other cases in the US, the state “will continue to work to share information and help however we can”.



Source:   https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/22/coronavirus-doctors-use-robot-to-treat-first-known-us-patient
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2020 at 8:47am
Maybe a good way of tracking

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_outbreak_of_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)

The wikipedia-page will get updated "by the hour" if need be.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2020 at 8:20am
From CGTN; ( China Global Television Network)

https://www.cgtn.com/special/Battling-the-novel-coronavirus-What-we-know-so-far-.html;

Here is what we know so far:

- Confirmed cases: At least 543 in China, seven abroad

- Deaths: 17, all in Hubei Province

- Human-to-human transmission confirmed

- Health experts say virus has potential to mutate

https://www.globaltimes.cn//special-coverage/Wuhan-Pneumonia.html

South China Morning Post;
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3047193/china-coronavirus-first-case-confirmed-hong-kong;
China coronavirus: death toll almost doubles in one day as Hong Kong reports its first two cases
Authorities scramble to trace four family members of one of the patients, who continued their journey to Manila
Mainland Chinese passenger travelled to city by high-speed rail, having earlier been to Wuhan
-
Authorities were also scrambling to track down four family members of one of the patients in Hong Kong, who had continued their journey to the Philippine capital, Manila.
A mainland Chinese tourist, 39, who arrived at the high-speed railway station in West Kowloon on Tuesday returned positive test results at Queen Elizabeth Hospital, while a source told the Post a 56-year-old man who had visited Wuhan – the city at the epicentre of the outbreak – also came back positive in an initial test at Prince of Wales Hospital. Both were moved to Princess Margaret Hospital, where the Hospital Authority Infectious Disease Centre is located.
As the city ramped up preparations to ward off possible contagion, health authorities in mainland China rolled out strict quarantine measures to try and choke the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus which had claimed at least 17 lives, as of 8pm. Nine people had been reported dead from the virus on Wednesday morning. Official reports at 11pm said all the fatalities were in Hubei province and that there were a total of 541 confirmed case

The man in the first case is a resident of Wuhan and was found to be suffering from a fever on his arrival at the rail terminus in West Kowloon.
Sources told the Post the man had undergone two tests that confirmed the infection, while the result of a third test involving gene sequencing was still pending. Secretary for Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee described it as a “highly suspected case” of the new virus with another test result due out on Thursday morning.
Chan said the man had first boarded high-speed train G1015 from Wuhan to Shenzhen North, then taken train G5607 to West Kowloon. He sat in seat 10D in carriage three for the first leg of his journey, then in seat 2D in carriage two for the second part to Hong Kong.

The MTR said the affected train had already left West Kowloon station before it was notified by Hong Kong’s port health officers, but that it had immediately notified relevant units on the mainland to clean and disinfect the seat and carriage where the man sat, as well as spaces nearby.
While he was stopped by port health officials because he was showing signs of a fever, his wife, two sons and mother-in-law, showing no symptoms, were all allowed through. Chan said they stayed in the Empire Hotel Kowloon in Tsim Sha Tsui before taking Cebu Pacific flight 5J111 to Manila on Wednesday morning.
A hotline has been set up by the health authorities to trace passengers who were on the same trains as the patient.
The Director of Health Dr Constance Chan Hon-yee said people in close contact with the patient would be sent to quarantine camps.
“Generally speaking, [those sitting] in the same row, and the two rows in front and behind will be regarded as in close contact,” she said.
She added that those who had sat further away would be advised to monitor their own health and seek medical attention if they experienced symptoms.
Coronavirus weaker than Sars but may share link to bats, Chinese scientists say
22 Jan 2020

Another source said the second man, from Hong Kong, went to Wuhan on January 10 and returned on January 19, when he visited Prince of Wales Hospital claiming to be unwell. Hospital staff did not find any symptoms of fever or pneumonia.

He returned to the same hospital two days later, when hospital staff identified some shadows in a lung X-ray. The man was sent to an isolation ward and tested positive to the new coronavirus in an initial test.


https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

https://www.rt.com/news/478911-masks-sars-china-virus/;
Masks and airport checks for Chinese SARS-like virus are there to keep population calm – no government can stop its spread now

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/china-imposes-voluntary-quarantine-of-wuhan-11-million-people-over-coronavirus-spread

Another source said the second man, from Hong Kong, went to Wuhan on January 10 and returned on January 19, when he visited Prince of Wales Hospital claiming to be unwell. Hospital staff did not find any symptoms of fever or pneumonia.

He returned to the same hospital two days later, when hospital staff identified some shadows in a lung X-ray. The man was sent to an isolation ward and tested positive to the new coronavirus in an initial test.


DJ-So an infected case went to hospital jan 19-was sent away after some investigation-returned jan 21 and then found to be infected....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oakviolet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2020 at 7:53am
Worth noting that Reuters is also reporting 17. Seems like the increased number may be the result of provincial data vs. just Wuhan.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-transmission/china-virus-deaths-rise-to-17-heightening-global-alarm-idUSKBN1ZL07C
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oakviolet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2020 at 7:50am
New York Times is reporting 17 dead.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Loribearme Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2020 at 5:58am
9 dead
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2020 at 4:29am
That is truly terrifying! But thanks for the heads-up, Carbon.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2020 at 3:28am
Sounds like it's "AIRBORNE"

And mutating....

Could go either way now.....

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Coronavirus death toll climbs to nine, Chinese authorities say
Posted7 hours ago, updated1 hour ago
WATCH
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds1m 25s

What is this new coronavirus?
China's National Health Commission says 440 people in 13 Chinese provinces are now infected with the new coronavirus, with nine people dying — and there is evidence of respiratory transmission from patient to patient.

Key points:
Chinese authorities say the outbreak can spread through human contact
The coronavirus strain is believed to have started in a Chinese seafood market
Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific flight attendants are asking to wear masks on flights
The number of confirmed cases as of Tuesday (local time) marks a rise from the more than 300 previously reported.

What is a coronavirus?

Here's what we know about the novel coronavirus, or 2019-nCoV, and how worried you should be.

Read more
Chinese officials said the new virus was also adapting and mutating, underscoring the challenges for health authorities in controlling the outbreak.

An official from the country's Centre for Disease Control and Prevention said the coronavirus originated from a market dealing in illegal wildlife transactions.

The virus, which started in the city of Wuhan at the end of last year, has spread to Beijing and Shanghai, as well as overseas to the United States, Thailand, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan.

The Chinese special administrative region of Macau also confirmed its first case of pneumonia linked to the outbreak, state-owned news agency Xinhua said.

China is taking more strict measures in hospitals to protect healthcare workers from the outbreak, and will increase training for healthcare workers nationwide, officials from the health commission said.

Authorities added that infection of medical staff in the outbreak showed there were loopholes in treatment methods as authorities were still learning about the new virus.

Chinese residents vented their frustrations on social media over the limited availability of face masks being available to purchase in many cities such as Chengdu, as well as online.

Hong Kong confirms first case
A local pharmacy store in the city of Chengdu in China announced all facial masks were sold out in Chinese characters.
A sign at a local pharmacy in the city of Chengdu says all facial masks are sold out.(Weibo: Chengdu News)
Hong Kong confirmed its first case of the new coronavirus strain on Wednesday, local broadcasters RTHK, Cable TV and TVB said.

The infected patient arrived in Hong Kong via high-speed railway from the mainland, and has been quarantined at the Queen Elizabeth hospital, the reports said.

The Hospital Authority enhanced laboratory surveillance for pneumonia cases to include patients with travel history to all of mainland China.

Hong Kong had deployed temperature-screening machinery at the airport and the high-speed rail station.

Coronavirus spreads to the US and Thailand
Earlier today, a United States man from Washington state who recently travelled to China was diagnosed with the coronavirus, becoming the first confirmed US case of the newly identified illness.

The patient, identified only as a man in his 30s who recently returned from his hometown in China, fell ill over the weekend and was diagnosed with the coronavirus on Monday (local time), Washington Governor Jay Inslee told reporters at a press conference in the United States city of Seattle.

He was in a satisfactory condition at Providence Regional Medical Centre in Washington and was not known to have infected anyone else, Mr Inslee said.

"This is not a moment of high anxiety," Mr Inslee said

"This is a low risk. It appears to have a transmission vector that really should not prevent anyone from going anywhere in Snohomish County [in Washington], except maybe the isolation ward at the hospital."

Last week, the World Health Organisation said there was limited human-to-human transmission, and the global community would be prepared if an outbreak occurred, however authorities now say the virus can spread through human contact.


WATCH
Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds1m 24s
Death toll from Wuhan coronavirus rises to nine
The coronavirus, which causes respiratory symptoms similar to a cold or flu, has been linked to a seafood market in Wuhan, the largest city in central China with a population of about 11 million. That market has since been shut down.

The disease has spread to other parts of China, including the capital Beijing where there have been five cases. People have also been diagnosed in Thailand, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan.

The US Centres for Disease Control (CDC) and Washington State said the agency was preparing for more US cases of the coronavirus to emerge, and the CDC raised its travel alert for Wuhan to a level 2, calling for enhanced precautions.

Under that alert level, the CDC recommends people travelling to Wuhan to avoid contact with sick people, animals and animal markets.

The agency said it had developed a new test that allowed it to identify the presence of the virus in a traveller.

A CDC medical officer said all travellers from Wuhan would be redirected to five US airports in Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, Atlanta and San Francisco for screening.

Airline crews fear being infected

WATCH
Duration: 23 seconds23s
Footage circulating on Chinese social media shows medics checking the temperature of passengers on a Wuhan to Macau flight.
The flight attendants union at Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways said it has asked the airline to let crew wear face masks on all flights to mitigate the risk of staff catching the new coronavirus.

The coronavirus struck as millions of Chinese prepared to travel for the Lunar New Year, heightening contagion risks and posing a fresh threat to the airline, which has been battered by months of sometimes violent anti-government protests in Hong Kong.

The Cathay Pacific Airways Flight Attendants Union said it had received a "tremendous" amount of emails and messages from members concerned about catching the virus given they were exposed to more than 300 passengers from numerous places on a single flight.

"All of them are worried about the risk they are taking every time they go to work," the union said on its Facebook page on Tuesday (local time).

"It is time for the company to properly address their concerns and allow cabin crew to wear masks on all flights."

The new coronavirus strain has been linked to a seafood market in Wuhan, the largest city in central China.
So far, it said, the airline was not allowing cabin crew to wear masks except on flights to and from Wuhan.

Cathay did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

Cathay told the South China Morning Post, which first reported on the issue, that as required by Hong Kong health authorities, it was distributing health declaration forms and making face masks and antiseptic wipes available at the boarding gate to passengers travelling from Wuhan to Hong Kong.

Wuhan virus 'super-spreaders'
One of China's top health experts warns potential "super-spreaders" could worsen the impact of the new coronavirus strain, which can now be passed between humans.

Read more
Financial Services analysts from Jefferies said shares in Cathay and mainland Chinese carriers could remain under pressure for some time if the coronavirus situation became similar to the 2003 SARS outbreak and cases continued to increase. That coronavirus outbreak killed nearly 800 people.

Britain's Heathrow Airport would introduce separate areas for passengers travelling from regions that had been affected by the new flu-like coronavirus in China, Transport Minister Grant Shapps said on Wednesday.

"That is something which we are keeping a very close eye on," Mr Shapps told Sky News.

"There's been some announcements this morning about flights that come direct from the infected region to Heathrow with some additional measures there. This is to ensure that when flights come in directly to Heathrow there is a separate area for people to arrive in."

Reuters/ABC

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2020 at 4:17am
BBC just confirmed 6 dead.
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2020 at 4:09am
6 dead?? Okay this is new
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2020 at 4:06am
Warning against cover-up... LOL

Irony: If low level officials spoke out about a virus, they wouldn't be officials.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2020 at 4:02am
15 health workers who had contact with patients have now themselves been infected. This is pretty serious if it's accurate.

Again remember its from China... They are full of $hit. The only reason why they are coming out now is because the virus has been found in other countries.

China is all about saving face. They are too concerned about not embarrassing China. Its dumb, its the communist system.

The key thing we should focus on is H2H spread outside of China. If its occurring in first world countries then we should be concerned.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2020 at 3:45am
BBC News - New China virus: Warning against cover-up as number of cases jump
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51185836
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2020 at 3:44am
Bloomberg are reporting over 200 cases now. Sorry, I've used up my free article limit, so I can't access the whole thing.

Oh, and yes, Carbon, that horse is long gone, the stable is burnt down and the groom has put the stablemaid up-the-stick.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/xi-warns-party-officials-anyone-who-covers-coronavirus-will-be-nailed-pillar-shame

Now that the Chinese government has finally confirmed that the coronavirus outbreak that originated in Wuhan can be spread between humans, international investors are grappling with the worst-case scenario: Another global SARS-like outbreak that could leave hundreds dead around the world.

As millions of Chinese prepare to travel for the Chinese New Year holiday on Saturday, deaths are piling up at a steady but alarming rate from the virus, which claimed its sixth victim on Monday, according to the mayor of Wuhan, the central-Chinese city where the virus was initially detected, before spreading to Shanghai, Beijing and elsewhere around the country.
-
According to the South China Morning Post, Beijing on Tuesday warned party functionaries not to lie about the spread of the coronavirus, warning that anyone caught withholding information would be severely punished and "nailed on the pillar of shame for eternity."

Chang An Jian, the official social media account of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission – Beijing’s top political body responsible for law and order – ran a commentary on Tuesday telling cadres not to forget the painful lessons of Sars and to ensure timely reporting of the current situation.

More than 700 people were killed around the world by the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak in 2002-03, which originated in China.

"Anyone who puts the face of politicians before the interests of the people will be the sinner of a millennium to the party and the people," the commentary read.
-
In what appears to be a PR stunt meant to calm the public, Beijing said it had appointed Dr Zhong Nanshan, the same doctor who led the fight against SARS 17 years ago, to lead the charge against the virus that originated in Wuhan.

Still, the virus, which was first detected in December before being officially identified earlier this month, appears to be spreading rapidly. Chinese provinces reported a combined 77 new cases of the virus to the National Health Commission on Jan. 20, according to the government.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail_in_China and
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-speed_rail_in_China#/media/File:Rail_map_of_China_(high_speed_highlighted).svg
DJ-Wuhan has high speed rail links with Sjanghai, Bejing etc. China also invested in raillinks to Laos, Viet Nam, Russia.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2020 at 2:02am
Banning people form leaving Wuhan......

Horse,Gate,Bolted......

Spring to mind.....

It's to late baby,now it's it late......
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China coronavirus: 14 medical workers infected by single carrier, officials admit
Australia among countries around world to introduce new screening measures as China warns of risk posed by 'super-spreaders'

Adam WithnallAsia Editor @adamwithnall
30 minutes ago
Authorities are taking urgent steps to contain the spread of a new virus in China, after officials admitted that at least 15 health workers who had contact with patients have now themselves been infected.

The Chinese government announced for the first time late on Monday that the novel coronavirus, which causes pneumonia-like symptoms and has led to four deaths, can be spread between humans.


Speaking on state TV, leading health expert Zhong Nanshan said that 14 medical staff had been infected by a single carrier in the city of Wuhan, where the coronavirus is believed to have first transmitted from animals to humans at a seafood market.


Dr Zhong is one of the Chinese government’s top SARS specialists, and his appearance on TV heightened concerns of an outbreak similar to that which spread from China to more than a dozen countries in 2002-3, killing at least 800.

Since China first reported the new virus to the WHO on 31 December, there have been at least 217 confirmed cases and travellers from Wuhan have been isolated in Japan, Thailand, South Korea and - in the latest incident - possibly Australia.

Read more

China confirms human-to-human transmission of deadly virus

Airport checks for deadly coronavirus begin in three US cities

British tourist believed to have contracted coronavirus as cases soar

Some 17 new infections of coronavirus discovered in China

Experts warn mystery Chinese virus could have infected hundreds
Queensland’s health agency said on Tuesday it was testing a man in quarantine after he returned to Sydney from central China with a respiratory illness. The state’s chief medical officer told ABC News the results from a generic test for coronavirus were still being awaited.

In the meantime, Australia said it would be increasing airport screening measures. The country receives a significant number of travellers from China, including three direct flights a week from Wuhan into Sydney, and these flights will be met by border security and biosecurity staff for assessments, the national chief medical officer Brendan Murphy told reporters.

China coronavirus: Cases soar of deadly new flu-like virus
Show all 20
China’s Dr Zhong said catching so-called “super-spreaders” - people in the most virulent stage of illness - was the key to preventing a major SARS-like outbreak.


Banning people with symptoms from leaving Wuhan was the best way to do this, he said. Videos on social media showed health workers in protective clothing screening passengers on board what was described as a domestic flight out of the city.

“At present, there is no special cure for this new coronavirus, [we are] conducting some tests with animals,” Dr Zhong said on TV, according to the South China Morning Post. “We expect the number of infected cases will increase over the Lunar New Year travel period and we need to prevent the emergence of a super-spreader of the virus.”


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President Xi Jinping also gave his first public statement on the crisis on Monday, saying that the virus must be “taken seriously” and “resolutely contained”. “Party committees, governments and relevant departments at all levels should put people's lives and health first,” he said.

In Japan, prime minister Shinzo Abe told a meeting with ministers that the country must “step up our caution levels as the number of patients is continuing to rise in China”.

Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and other places with extensive travel links to China are also enacting stricter screening measures.

At least three US airports have started screening incoming airline passengers from central China.

Watch more
What are symptoms of new Chinese virus – and where has it spread?
And the UAE, whose Dubai International Airport is one of the busiest in the world and receives direct flights from Wuhan, said measures had been taken to sure all ports of entry were “on standby to handle coronavirus cases”.

Experts said that the scale and urgency of the precautionary measures taken by authorities across the world should give hope that an outbreak like 2002-3 can be avoided.

Gabriel Leung, dean of medicine at the University of Hong Kong, said Chinese authorities in particular have responded much more quickly this time.

Dr Leung, who was heavily involved in the response to SARS, said modeling shows that cases will multiply over the coming weeks but the outbreak will gradually lose momentum as precautionary measures take effect.

He told reporters at a briefing: “Our underlying assumptions are, the force of infection is very different now ... because so many public health measures have been undertaken and so many interventions have been executed.”

What is a coronavirus, and what are the symptoms?
Coronaviruses are a group of virus that cause respiratory infections – diseases ranging from the common cold to SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome).

The novel coronavirus, which was isolated on 7 January, is only the seventh of its kind known to science that can infect humans.

The virus causing the current outbreak is different from those previously identified, Chinese scientists said earlier this month.

Initial symptoms of the novel coronavirus are mainly fever, with some experiencing coughing, tightness of the chest and shortness of breath.

Scans on some patients have shown fluid in the lungs consistent with viral pneumonia. Each of the four cases that has led to deaths involved patients with other underlying health conditions.

Read more about the coronavirus outbreak and the official response here.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2020 at 12:12am
We could have a case here in Australia......

Man quarantined at home in Brisbane
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2020 at 9:35pm
Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:


The new york times has an article (which I can't access) about 5 more people being quarantined.


Source and full article:   https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/01/19/world/asia/19reuters-china-health-pneumonia-zhejiang.html


Here you go!

Five Patients Quarantined in China's Zhejiang for Respiratory Illness
By Reuters
Jan. 19, 2020

BEIJING — China's eastern province of Zhejiang on Monday reported that five patients are in quarantine for respiratory illness but the diagnosis is not confirmed yet.

The province has found five people traveling from the city of Wuhan in central China with respiratory symptoms since Jan. 17, Zhejiang province's health commission said in a statement on its website, adding that the patients are in stable condition and their close contacts have been placed under medical observation.

(Reporting by Lusha Zhang and Se Young Lee; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2020 at 8:19pm
Technophobe said: medical staff should have the best anti-infection protocols of anyone anywhere"

In the west I'm sure this statement would hold up but in a country that even after SARS still sells Civet Cats in their wet markets and rely on home remedies to cure the sick, I'm not so sure!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2020 at 5:20pm
If true, that is a phenomenal R0; medical staff should have the best anti-infection protocols of anyone anywhere. That makes measles look hard to catch!

That would also make Fergusson's higher estimates correct. TERRYFYING!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2020 at 5:19pm
Mutation rates in RNA viruses are important because these viruses cause a terrible toll in terms of human death and disease. The flu and HIV, for example, are caused by viruses with RNA-based genomes. The high mutation rate means that they can rapidly evolve resistance to new drugs.
https://sciencing.com › rna-mutation...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2020 at 4:33pm
It seems they’re already playing a role.

“... Zhong elaborated that there was at least one case of human-to-human transmission in Wuhan, a city in central China, and two cases in families in the southern Guangdong province that borders Hong Kong. He also said that in one case, a single patient spread the virus to at least 14 medical staff members. He referred to such a patient as a “super-spreader,” according to South China Morning Post, and called these patients key to controlling the outbreak.”

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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote balddalesman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2020 at 4:01pm
No mention yet of a super spreaders, a big factor in the sars of old.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2020 at 3:01pm
Anyone who has spent time here knows about influenza’s ability to mutate and reassort with other strains to come up with novel viruses, but I’m not sure how well a coronavirus can adapt to a new host. MERS never really made the jump, while SARS seemed to hit the ground running, so we don’t have any historical precedent to guide us on this one. It’s not an efficient killer yet, but will that change as it moves into a larger population?
It would seem that we’ve entered a whole new chapter in infectious diseases.

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"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Loribearme Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2020 at 2:54pm
Don't forget the Superbowl comes on February 2,2020...2-2-2020. can you imagine the crowd all wearing masks and not yelling?   If the virus hits the US in the next six days it's possible for it to spread very fast. Good idea to stock up on food, water, meds, and stay home.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2020 at 2:53pm
BBC News - New China virus: Cases triple as infection spreads to Beijing and Shanghai
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51171035
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2020 at 2:50pm
Hard to predict,

with Chinese New Year,

Millions of people on the move,

couldnt have come at a better time.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Loribearme Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2020 at 2:40pm
A computer model showing the way this virus will spread would be helpful.
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Passengers at the airport who have taken direct flights from Wuhan will need to fill in health forms. Photo: AP
Health & Environment
Hong Kong strengthens detection and response measures against new Wuhan virus as mainland China reveals disease has spread
Health declaration forms will be used at airport and expanded monitoring will cover everyone arriving from Hubei province
Mainland authorities reveal there are five cases in Beijing, one in Shanghai and 14 in Guangdong province, which borders Hong Kong
Topic | China coronavirus outbreak
Victor Ting
Victor Ting

Published: 11:33pm, 20 Jan, 2020

Updated: 12:11am, 21 Jan, 2020


Hong Kong has stepped up detection measures against the new Wuhan pneumonia-like coronavirus, including the use of health declaration forms at the airport and expanded monitoring of local suspected cases to cover those with symptoms and arriving from Hubei province. The latest measures came as Chinese authorities confirmed that another person had died over the weekend from the infection, bringing the death toll to three in Wuhan, and for the first time revealed the virus had spread, with five cases in Beijing, one in Shanghai and 14 in Guangdong province, which borders Hong Kong. The total confirmed cases in mainland China stood at 218. In Hong Kong, seven more suspected infections were reported, taking the total to 106 as of 8am on Monday, according to the Centre for Health Protection. There were no confirmed cases in the city.


The World Health Organisation, meanwhile, said there were indications the severe acute respiratory syndrome-like virus – thought to have originated in a seafood and meat market in Wuhan – could spread through human-to-human transmission. Hong Kong’s health secretary Sophia Chan Siu-chee said Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor had attended a cross-departmental meeting on Monday morning for the latest reports on the situation, and hammered out three new measures.

“There may be the first confirmed case in Hong Kong at any minute, so we must not let our guard down, and have to be well prepared with the most adequate response in place,” Professor Chan said.
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In a three-pronged package, Chan said all suspected infection cases with fever, pneumonia or respiratory symptoms who had been to Hubei province in the past 14 days had to be reported by all doctors and monitored by the health authorities. Previously, the scope of monitoring only included those who had travelled to Wuhan, centre of the outbreak, visited any mainland hospitals or had direct contact with patients with confirmed infection.
Health chief Sophia Chan, flanked by Constance Chan and Tony Ko, provides an update on the situation on Monday. Photo: Dickson Lee

Director of Health Dr Constance Chan Hon-yee insisted the expanded scope was sufficient despite newly reported cases in Beijing and Shenzhen. “All those patients had visited Wuhan before,” she said. Another key plank of the new strategy was a health declaration form to be filled by passengers who had taken direct flights from Wuhan. The director said they would be asked to declare any symptoms and put down their contact information for follow-up action if necessary. Those reporting symptoms would be taken to public hospitals for further checks and isolation. False declaration could result in the maximum penalty of a HK$5,000 fine and six months in prison.
But she faced a barrage of questions as to why the measure was not extended to visitors arriving by high-speed rail, or other border crossings such as the Lo Wu checkpoint and Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge. “If all passengers at the terminals have to stay in one crowded place and fill in health declaration forms, it may not be ideal for controlling the transmission of the virus,” she said, adding that temperature screening at those terminals was already “operational sufficient and appropriate”.
Questions were asked as to why the measures don’t include the high-speed rail terminus. Photo: K.Y. Cheng
Hospital Authority chief executive Dr Tony Ko Pat-sing said public hospitals would also strengthen their response mechanism. One clinic from each of the seven hospital regional groupings could be made available within 48 hours to treat patients infected with coronavirus. Patients with less urgent appointments would be transferred to other clinics. Currently, 500 isolation wards at public hospitals are available, with more ordinary wards to be converted if necessary. Professor David Hui Shu-cheong, a respiratory medicine expert from Chinese University, believed the measures were reasonable. He said it made sense to draw the line of monitoring at Hubei province where the virus was widely thought to have originated, since there was no apparent evidence of mass transmission in the mainland community yet.
“The health declaration form has great limitations and yields little benefits actually, because many visitors will not honestly report their condition to get in. Some forms may even be filled in bulk by tour guides,” he said. The most effective measure, he said, was rigorous temperature screening at arrival checkpoints, highlighting confirmed cases in Thailand, Japan and South Korea, which were all discovered after temperature checks at airports.

China coronavirus outbreak
Hong Kong health care and hospitals
Victor Ting
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2020 at 12:49pm
Here in NZ the news is stating that China has confirmed human to human transmission.

Quote:The head of a Chinese government expert team says that human-to-human transmission has been confirmed in an outbreak of a new coronavirus.

The news comes as the World Health Organisation plans an emergency committee of experts meeting this week to assess whether the outbreak constitutes an international emergency.

The virus has infected nearly 200 people and a fourth case been reported outside of China.
Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2020 at 11:48am
VERY! But not so surprising with a new disease.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2020 at 11:18am
Cheers.
This virus looks to have the jump on us...
Prof Neil Ferguson is the real deal. As he says Chinese new year will be problematic.

The death rate is low. Which is reassuring, but its still early days.
Do we know much about who died and why. Ie ages of people or preexisting conditions?

One thing which is alarming is many reports of 30-40 year olds being hospitalized. Hospitalization of young and fit is very concerning.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2020 at 6:29am
[The reports are flooding in now.]

British tourist fighting for life in Thailand is feared to be first western victim of new Chinese coronavirus as third patient DIES and outbreak spreads to South Korea

    Ash Shorley, 32, is in critical condition in a hospital in Phuket, Thailand
    His lung infection is similar to the Chinese coronavirus, but is not confirmed
    The unnamed novel virus has infected an estimated 1,700 in Wuhan, China
    Authorities revealed the virus has spread to other cities in China this weekend
    The total confirmed cases has tipped 200 and three have died
    Four confirmed cases are outside China in Thailand, Japan, and South Korea

Source and full article:   https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7906281/SARS-like-virus-spreads-China-nearly-140-new-cases.html

Wuhan virus: Singapore expands temperature screening to all travellers arriving from China

Published
3 hours ago
Updated
7 sec ago

Clement Yong

SINGAPORE - The Ministry of Health (MOH) said on Monday (Jan 20) that it is stepping up precautionary measures against the mysterious Wuhan virus in anticipation of more travellers in the lead-up to the Chinese New Year holidays.

The expanded measures include temperature screening for all travellers arriving from China at Changi Airport and issuing health advisory notices to them from Wednesday.

Previously, only travellers from the Chinese city of Wuhan were screened.

Source and full article:   https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/moh-steps-up-measures-against-wuhan-virus-as-cny-approaches

Masks on, Chinese start holiday travels as alarm mounts over mystery virus

Posted by Reuters | Jan 20, 2020


Source and full article:   https://www.physiciansweekly.com/masks-on-chinese-start/

The new york times has an article (which I can't access) about 5 more people being quarantined.


Source and full article:   https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/01/19/world/asia/19reuters-china-health-pneumonia-zhejiang.html
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Loribearme Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2020 at 6:21am
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There are more cases and countries. News is updating now hourly.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2020 at 4:25am
Well that was unexpected......

😂😂😂

I mean the Chinese admitting to it.....LMAO
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2020 at 4:02am
2020/01/20, Health

Chinese Health Officials Report Huge Spike in Cases of New Virus



Chinese health officials in the central city of Wuhan confirmed 136 newcases of a new coronavirus — a huge spike — over the past three days.

The Wuhan Municipal Health Commission says the total number of cases of the virus now exceeds 200, including two new cases in Beijing and one in Shenzhen in southern China. Most of the confirmed cases are described as mild, but three deaths have been reported.

Doctors in Wuhan, China's seventh most populous city, have stepped up screening for suspected cases of pneumonia. They are urging people to be more conscious of their personal hygiene and to cover their mouths when they cough or sneeze.

On Friday the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention started screening passengers arriving from Wuhan at three airports — San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York. Airports in Japan, Thailand, South Korea and Singapore are also screening passengers.

Passengers on a flight that arrived Saturday morning in San Francisco said they went through the screening and it was an easy procedure. Their temperature was taken and they filled out a form.

Chinese and U.S. health officials are particularly concerned because many of the 1.4 billion Chinese citizens are expected to travel for the Lunar New Year holiday that starts January 25, both inside China and beyond.

A coronavirus is one of a large family of viruses that can cause illnesses ranging from the common cold to the deadly Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome. SARS, which also started in China, killed nearly 800 people globally during an outbreak 17 years ago.

Chinese health experts know little about the new strain, dubbed 2019-nCoV, in Wuhan, especially how it is transmitted. They suspect the outbreak started in a Wuhan seafood market, which also sold other animals such as poultry, bats, marmots, and wild game meat, but some patients say they were never there.

Health officials are urging caution but say there is no reason to panic. The World Health Organization is not recommending against travel to China, and China's National Health Commission says the current outbreak is "preventable and controllable."

"According to the latest information received and WHO analysis, there is evidence of limited human-to-human transmission of the virus," the WHO tweeted Sunday. "This is in line with experience with other respiratory illnesses and in particular with other coronavirus outbreaks."

Of the new cases announced this weekend, all involve adults ages 25 to 89. About half are male (78) and half are female (75), according to Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, which translated the Wuhan commission's statement.

Of the 198 patients confirmed so far, 28 have recovered or been discharged. Of the 170 people still in the hospital, 126 have mild illness, 35 are listed as severe, and 9 are in critical condition. Three deaths have been now reported. Hospitalized patients in Wuhan are isolated at a designated facility.

The number of close contacts under monitoring has risen from 763 to 817, and monitoring is still underway for 90. So far no related cases have been found in contacts.


Source:   https://international.thenewslens.com/article/130259
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Ps. I posted a PDF from the WHO about how to treat patients last night. It was full of typographical errors. The draft itself, in its PDF form, had the word "draft" splattered all over it.

I think this is indicative of growing alarm - if not outright panic. If you have time to spare, you use it to look less illiterate than that.
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Hi Cobber.

As I'm here I'll try to answer your question to the Boss. But it might not be all that clear.

Dr. Fergusson (from his comments) has been using mathematical modeling to predict the spread. This is the standard tool for eppidemiologists. The figure of 1700 infected (AT THAT POINT IN TIME!) would have been the top of the curve.

There is a description of the bell curve graph here if you want it:   https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bell-curve.asp

I did a Coursera course on mathematical modelling and two on eppidemiology when Rickster (always missed, never forgotten) pointed them out to me. So I have become quite familiar with this system. The first thing you learn in modelling is that all models are wrong. The second is that they are less wrong than the guestimates used by those not using models (sorry Med!) and the more models employed, the closer to accurate you become.

Fergusson, from his comments and wealth of different figures, is clearly using more than one model. I don't know how many different models he used, but the top of my personal bell-curve-of-belief is that he is profoundly accurate. 1700 is the most likely figure. At a rough guess (but still based on his figures) standard deviation would be around ± 400 cases; which would make 1700 most probable and both 190 and 4000 = 4σ (which has odds of thousands-to-one against).

Like Fergusson, I'm extrapolating this from insufficent data. But it is not a complete guess (Think of it as a Mr Spock guess and you are about right.) The increase in cases over the weekend also backs up Fergusson's figures, as does China's reputation for a whitewash.

The one bit of good news is that one of the axioms Fergusson used was that most cases were mild enough to masquerade as a common cold; the deaths (and presumably the critical cases) were among people with co-morbidities (the already sick with something else). So the more accurate Fergusson is - the less deadly the virus.
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