scenario's

DJ, (Work In Progress=WIP unless I added music-then this post is supposed to have found an end...)

Humans are unique as a species since they are the only animals denying they are animals. Still with an idea-like the Sun would be making its circles around the globe-humans would be the center of "creation"; humans are G(o)od-it is all about us...We have become the pandemic-with cities as a fungus infection on this globe, humans making their home planet ill...The pandemic; that is us...what we now see is only a reaction...Climate "change" does not have "us" as bystander, we are not the victim, but the actor...we are doing this to ourselves...nobody else to blame...

The way out of this pandemic, climate collapse is "us" taking a few steps back...since we changed from walking to running "forward" taking a few steps back may seem impossible...but we can, and shall...

-The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ; India likes to claim 261 deaths per million (dpm)-so far-with Brazil at 2,253 deaths per million already...if we "correct" the India statistics 10x the official number would put India's Covid deaths at 3,6 million...a more likely number...the global average dpm-number now stands at 486.

I also try to follow statistics on variants at [url]https://www.avianflutalk.com/topic43913_post306630.html#306630[/url] or https://www.avianflutalk.com/topic43913_post306630.html#306630 (more and more an impossible job...)

India now reporting just over 90,000 new cases, Brazil just under that number..India's reported number going down, Brazils number going up...UK reporting 7,393 new cases in what is not supposed to be called yet another-preventable-wave...

Peru leading the dpm-list with 5,624 Puruvians dying from Covid19 per million-so far-0,5624% of all Peruvians.

The trends; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table DRC-Most in Kinshasa-the capital with 15 million Congolese in it-reporting an increase of +133%, 898 cases last week-this week 2,089 cases being reported. Most of the spread not being tested-1 doctor per 100,000+, several variants mixing. UK +63%...China +27%, last week 132 cases detected, this week 167-even with very strict NPI rules, good testing/sequencing having a hard time to get a grip on the India variant. The R0 of that variant-without NPI-would be 6...based on the present numbers-massive testing also finding asymptomatic cases-the R0 still is not under 1. 

Global numbers down-16%...most of it due to A. India reporting less numbers and B. less testing...

[url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ India variant; UK now at 24,420 cases detected (around 50% of UK new cases get sequenced, sequencing takes up to two weeks-so at the end of may the UK could already be at 50,000+ India variant cases...Also the R0 is based on "old numbers" I believe most of the UK already at 1,3-London 1,8 (Dr.J.C. in one of his videoś from a few days ago.) US has 2,273 India variant cases-sequencing under 5%-would that translate to around 45,000/50,000 US India-variant cases end of may ? Again-GISAID also has the statistics on several other variants. Looking at statistics the SA and P1/Brazil variant also are increasing/mixing-in many places the UK variant is still dominant-but India-variant is getting all the room to become the new #1-if there is not a more infectious new variant even spreading faster...

Dr.J.C. mentioned the India (Delta)-variant spreading 2 times as fast as the "old" variant, others have that at 2,2 times...but you have to relate that to the population-hosts-in wich it is spreading. Vaccination is slowing the spread-but not stopping it. Bad part of the story is the India-variant will-in the UK-mutate towards vaccine escape...(Dr.J.C. interview with Prof. Paul Hunter june 10-R0 for the India variant could be 8 !!!)

-Flutrackers-latest posts; (several on the India/Delta variant)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916069-china-confirmed-community-spread-of-1-617-variant-possible-delta-2-high-risk-areas-identified-in-guangzhou-guangdong-province-may-23-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916069-china-confirmed-community-spread-of-1-617-variant-possible-delta-2-high-risk-areas-identified-in-guangzhou-guangdong-province-may-23-2021?view=stream latest activity; There are 10 new cases a day, does it mean that the epidemic situation is more severe? Lin Peng believes that the 10 new cases in Guangzhou cannot represent an escalation of the epidemic, "it just shows that our regional control is scientific, and our large-scale nucleic acid screening is effective."
Lin Peng said that of the 10 new cases, 9 cases were in the closed area of Baihedong Street in Liwan District. The area was closed for management on May 31, and personnel did not leave their homes. This shows that the chances of people who are currently screened out for infection through the community are very small, and they should have been infected before or between families.

DJ-If China is able to control the outbreak of the India-variant in Guangdong numbers should go down-at present numbers go up...+27% in weekly trends. China has 18 cases reported to GISAID (NL has 84-going up-restrictions going down...Even if China would be "not telling all of the story" the picture I have is that China is taking this India-variant much more serious...).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917189-thailand-media-covid-19-delta-variant-has-spread-to-11-provinces-june-11-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917189-thailand-media-covid-19-delta-variant-has-spread-to-11-provinces-june-11-2021 ;Currently, 11 of Thailand’s 77 prefectures have the first infection with the mutant virus found in India, of which 318 cases (91%) are in the capital Bangkok, followed by Udon Thani with 17 cases, Saraburi, Nonthaburi, Kong There are 2 cases each in Jingfu and Chaiyaphum provinces, and 1 case each in Phitsanulok, Roi Yat, Ubon Ratchathani, Buriram and Samut Sakon.
　　The Director of the Department of Medicine Supaji pointed out that the mutated virus reported in India that was discovered in Thailand may replace the mutated virus reported in the UK because the former spreads at least 40% faster than the latter. (Headquarters reporter Li Min)

DJ-Just like in China, Thailand, Vietnam managed so far to limit the spread of the pandemic-making most of the population vulnarable while vaccination is limited at best. Bangkok being a hotspot for the India-variant should be a nightmare. This pandemic did do most of its damage in major cities-people living on top of each others. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/novel-coronavirus-ncov-mers-2012-2014/saudi-arabia-coronavirus/917184-saudi-arabia-2021-mers-epiwk-23[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/novel-coronavirus-ncov-mers-2012-2014/saudi-arabia-coronavirus/917184-saudi-arabia-2021-mers-epiwk-23 ; MERS in Almwaih city: 63-year-old male in Almwaih city, Taif
Contact with camels: Yes
Case classification: Primary
Healthcare worker: No
Current status: Active
Date: June 8, 2021
Event#: 21-2051

DJ-Can MERS mix with Covid19-Saudi Arabia so far reported +0,7% increase, 462,528 cases on a population of just over 35 million. Most of the wealth/oil is in a "royal family" House of Saud-claiming to own the land-elite of 20,000...with a genocide against Sjia-Muslims in the North East and a never ending war-most fought on land by soldiers from Sudan-KSA pays Sudan for that-in Yemen. If MERS can manage to mix with Covid19 we may have a Saudi-variant..

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917182-cidrap-high-covid-vaccine-uptake-may-protect-the-unvaccinated[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917182-cidrap-high-covid-vaccine-uptake-may-protect-the-unvaccinated ;Higher levels of COVID-19 vaccination in a population are tied to lower rates of infection in unvaccinated youth younger than 16 years, who were ineligible for the vaccine at the time of the trial, according to an observational, real-world, Israeli study today in Nature Medicine.
Researchers from Technion-Israel Institute of Technology in Haifa led the study, which involved mining vaccination records and COVID-19 test results gathered during a rapid vaccine rollout in 177 communities.
They found that vaccination rates in each community were linked to a large subsequent decline in COVID-19 infections in the unvaccinated youth. For every 20 percentage points of vaccinated people in a population, on average, COVID-19 test positivity declined about twofold.

-

While noting studies that found reduced SARS-CoV-2 viral loads among vaccinated people, the researchers said that vaccination could also lead to undesirable behaviors such as failure to quarantine after exposure to the virus or to continue keeping a distance from others in the community.
Furthermore, they said, because the number of people infected by another person varies by sociobehavioral and environmental factors, even in communities without vaccine availability, and because global infection rates take into account both vaccinated and unvaccinated people, determining the effect of vaccination on community-level SARS-CoV-2 spread has been difficult.
While the study results didn't address the possibility of natural immunity, the researchers said that they hint at possible population-level control of COVID-19, which is crucial for quelling the pandemic.
"These results provide observational evidence that vaccination not only protects individuals who have been vaccinated but also provides cross-protection to unvaccinated individuals in the community," they wrote. "Although the observed vaccine-associated protection of the unvaccinated population is encouraging, further studies are required to understand whether and how vaccination campaigns might support the prospect of herd immunity and disease eradication."

DJ-Yes vaccinations help-but only when you mix them with NPI ! My view is that a lot of people by now take this virus/pandemic serious enough...do not need a "politician" to tell them what to do...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917179-cidrap-who-reveals-new-global-antibiotic-resistance-data-more-concerns[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917179-cidrap-who-reveals-new-global-antibiotic-resistance-data-more-concerns ; A new report from the World Health Organization (WHO) shows that an increasing amount of data is being reported on antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and use, and some of the data suggest troubling trends, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
The WHO's fourth Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS) Report includes information on more than 3 million laboratory-confirmed bacterial infections caused by pathogens of concern in 70 countries in 2019. That's more than a sixfold increase in the number of infections reported to GLASS when sites first began reporting AMR surveillance data in 2017.
Although WHO officials caution that the data are limited and more research is required to draw firm conclusions, among the findings are high rates of resistance in common pathogens to first-line antibiotics used to treat urinary tract infections (UTIs) and extremely high resistance to last-resort antibiotics in some healthcare-associated pathogens. The data also show higher rates of resistance in LMICs for the most common causes of bloodstream infections (BSIs).
"The volume of AMR infections is alarming," WHO Assistant Director-General Hanan Balkhy said in a press release. "However, it is encouraging to see that despite the ongoing challenges of COVID-19, more countries are reporting in on AMR….The more information we have, the better placed we are to tackle this increasingly serious health threat."

DJ-Covid-coinfections may be a next step in this pandemic. Fungul infections now (under)reported from India, Russia, Uruguay, Paraguay and latest Chile must be widespread. Other infectious will take their chance when "hosts" have less defenses. Public healthcare should be a global top-priority ! "One health" in wich diseases in animals-and human animals-are not seperated is urgent. Economic inequality is both growing and criminial-in the way of finding solutions...See also;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/917174-eurosurv-case-series-of-four-secondary-mucormycosis-infections-in-covid-19-patients-the-netherlands-december-2020-to-may-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/917174-eurosurv-case-series-of-four-secondary-mucormycosis-infections-in-covid-19-patients-the-netherlands-december-2020-to-may-2021 ; We describe four secondary fungal infections caused by Mucorales species in COVID-19 patients. Three COVID-19 associated mucormycosis (CAM) occurred in ICU, one outside ICU. All were men aged > 50 years, three died. Clinical presentations included pulmonary, rhino-orbital cerebral and disseminated infection. Infections occurred in patients with and without diabetes mellitus. CAM is an emerging disease and our observations underscore the need to be aware of invasive mucormycosis, including in COVID-19 patients without (poorly controlled) diabetes mellitus and outside ICU.

DJ-Not in Dutch news yet...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/917196-case-report-bilateral-palsy-of-the-vocal-cords-after-covid-19-infection[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/917196-case-report-bilateral-palsy-of-the-vocal-cords-after-covid-19-infection ;During the COVID-19 pandemic, adverse neurological effects have been described. In addition to unspecific neurological symptoms, cranial nerve deficits have appeared as part of SARS-CoV-2 infection. In this case report, we describe a 74-year-old patient who developed bilateral paralysis of the vocal cords some weeks following his dismissal in stable condition after COVID-19 pneumonia. After ruling out central lesions, peripheral tumors, and other possible causes, therapy was initiated with methylprednisolone, inhalations, and oxygen. The patient showed no improvement, so laterofixation after Lichtenberger was performed. The dyspnea worsened after several weeks, so a laser posterior cordectomy was performed with satisfactory outcome.

DJ..."Palsy" is paralysis. There has been descriptions of thyroid infections-the virus can do a lot of damage in the upper respitory system as well as in the lower ones-lungs. Also other organs can get -long term-damage.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/917195-necessity-of-covid-19-vaccination-in-previously-infected-individuals[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/917195-necessity-of-covid-19-vaccination-in-previously-infected-individuals ;Conclusions Individuals who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection are unlikely to benefit from COVID-19 vaccination, and vaccines can be safely prioritized to those who have not been infected before.

Summary Cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was examined among 52238 employees in an American healthcare system. COVID-19 did not occur in anyone over the five months of the study among 2579 individuals previously infected with COVID-19, including 1359 who did not take the vaccine.

DJ-New variants may change these findings. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/917172-eurosurv-the-sars-cov-2-b-1-351-lineage-voc-%CE%B2-is-outgrowing-the-b-1-1-7-lineage-voc-%CE%B1-in-some-french-regions-in-april-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/917172-eurosurv-the-sars-cov-2-b-1-351-lineage-voc-%CE%B2-is-outgrowing-the-b-1-1-7-lineage-voc-%CE%B1-in-some-french-regions-in-april-2021 ;To assess SARS-CoV-2 variants spread, we analysed 36,590 variant-specific reverse-transcription-PCR tests performed on samples from 12 April–7 May 2021 in France. In this period, contrarily to January–March 2021, variants of concern (VOC) β (B.1.351 lineage) and/or γ (P.1 lineage) had a significant transmission advantage over VOC α (B.1.1.7 lineage) in Île-de-France (15.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 15.5–16.2) and Hauts-de-France (17.3%; 95% CI: 15.9–18.7) regions. This is consistent with VOC β’s immune evasion abilities and high proportions of prior-SARS-CoV-2-infected persons in these regions. 

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Variants_of_concern[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Variants_of_concern and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Beta_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Beta_variant ; again the "Delta/India" variant is NOT the only variant increasing, the SA and P1/Brazil variant also are both increasing and evading more immunity. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Beta_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Beta_variant#Statistics may 29 has 1,880 cases of the SA variant in France...Both the SA and P1 variant will be pushed aside by the India-(Delta) variant-or a newer-worse-variation not yet detected (since sequencing takes time-certainly if you may not know what to look for-some variants are likely also evading tests...).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/827819-discussion-2019-ncov-therapeutics?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/827819-discussion-2019-ncov-therapeutics?view=stream one of latest activities; Neel, who served on a team of chemical and biological weapons experts for The Pentagon, has studied the effects of Melatonin for years.

"One of my jobs was looking for countermeasures against chemical, biological and radiological weapons," Neel said. "In the course of my research, I came across Melatonin, which is just a remarkable compound," Neel said.

DJ-May have lots of interesting news-also on Ivermectin. Melatonin would also have anti-viral/anti-inflamatory use. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/estonia/917167-estonia-6-new-outbreaks-of-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-virus-h5n1-in-wild-birds-oie-june-10-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/estonia/917167-estonia-6-new-outbreaks-of-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-virus-h5n1-in-wild-birds-oie-june-10-2021 ; A list of 6 detections.

DJ Both H5/H7 bird flu has the potential to become a next pandemic-since most of the spread is via birds this pandemic could come ON TOP OF the present pandemic.  See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/europe-h5n8-tracking/h5n8-tracking-estonia/917165-h5n8-avian-influenza-virus-found-in-tallinn-zoo-bird[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/europe-h5n8-tracking/h5n8-tracking-estonia/917165-h5n8-avian-influenza-virus-found-in-tallinn-zoo-bird ;Detection of the highly contagious H5N8 strain of the avian influenza virus in a bird of Tallinn Zoo earlier this week has prompted the Agricultural and Food Board to impose a quarantine and related restrictions to limit the spread of the infection.

DJ H5N8 did jump to humans earlier this year in Russia and Nigeria.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910938-spain-detects-american-minks-with-coronavirus-march-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910938-spain-detects-american-minks-with-coronavirus-march-2021?view=stream latest; Five animals tested positive for coronavirus at the farm in the province of A Coruña
The American mink farm concerned is located in Carral in the province of A Coruña and the regional Department of the Environment reports that the outbreak has been reported to the Ministry of Agriculture, Fishing and Food. The protocol for the control and eradication of this invasive species, which has been in place since 2004, allowed technical personnel to detect the presence of coronavirus in five animals, all of them asymptomatic, and the samples will now be analysed to establish which strain of SARS-CoV-2 is involved.

There are currently 25 registered mink farms in Galicia with a total of 71,479 reproducing females, and this is the fourth registered Covid-19 outbreak among them over the last 15 months.

DJ A june 10 report. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/917163-emerg-infect-dis-delayed-antibody-and-t-cell-response-to-bnt162b2-vaccination-in-the-elderly-germany[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/917163-emerg-infect-dis-delayed-antibody-and-t-cell-response-to-bnt162b2-vaccination-in-the-elderly-germany ;We detected delayed and reduced antibody and T-cell responses after BNT162b2 vaccination in 71 elderly persons (median age 81 years) compared with 123 healthcare workers (median age 34 years) in Germany. These data emphasize that nonpharmaceutical interventions for coronavirus disease remain crucial and that additional immunizations for the elderly might become necessary.

DJ-Immunity after vaccination is not only slower in older people (young people 2 weeks-in older people it can take 3 weeks, but also less effective. 

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImzsGesBApM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImzsGesBApM ; Change in symptoms-from under the (20 min.) video;

UK, Delta variant, 91%

R = 1.3 (UK) Delta, R = 6 (in no lockdown conditions) Two doses needed Young and unvaccinated Cases could double in the next week, up to 20,000 per day Increased cases will feed through into more deaths, 40 per day Long CoViD will also increase

Change in presentation Cold like features Symptoms now (since May) Headache Sore throt Runny nose Fever Cough No loss of smell anymore

The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS The assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variants of concern. 

Long COVID from first wave 1 million with symptoms for more than 4 weeks As of 2 May 2021 376,000 people still symptomatic 63.7%, at least some limitation to their day-to-day activities 18.8% day-to-day activities have been limited a lot 35 to 69 years more likely than over 70s 

Second vaccine doses Lower among all ethnic minority groups compared with White British population 

Overall, 70 years and over in England 96.0% got second dose within eight weeks (by 9 May 2021)

Pakistani 82.4% Bangladeshi 82.7% More deprived areas, lower 2nd dose rates Disabled people, lower 2nd dose rates  

United States Deaths down 90 % since January peak Late May, 2,400 weekly deaths

Unvaccinated population Main mortality group now 50 to 74 Black and Hispanic populations lag behind Asian and white Also, rural, homeless, people who don’t access medical care

MIS-C US Cases, 4,018 Deaths, 36

Moderna Requested an emergency authorization from the Food and Drug Administration For 12- to 17-year-olds Also Moderna has applied to Health Canada and European Medicines Agency Authorization by F.D.A. 3 or to 4 weeks

Pfizer already authorised About 7 million under 18s already

DJ The G7 will-again-promise-to give countries kept poor hundreds of millions of vaccines...Russia and China are already doing that...Here in NL over 350 children (under 12 ? or under 18 ?) have long term Covid. 

Music-A little less conversation a little more action, please-Elvis Presley [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWVMXLSS1cA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWVMXLSS1cA 

DJ,

When I look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ list of highest number of deaths per milion a lot of richer countries show up in the top 20. The US, UK, Italy, Belgium are all in the top 20. If a more realistic number of "deaths per million" would be 2,000 per million it would translate-with a global population of 7,8 billion into 7,8 times 2 million=almost 16 million.

I was reading [url]https://nos.nl/artikel/2384683-rivm-het-gaat-goed-en-steeds-beter[/url] or https://nos.nl/artikel/2384683-rivm-het-gaat-goed-en-steeds-beter (google translate works ok for that). In winter the R0 goes +10%, summer is -10%for virus spread. People more outside, so-basicly-the ratio of "humans per m3" goes down=less infections. (One could also include more vitamin D via the skin=better immunity). Vaccinations effect (for NL-and most other countries with high level of vaccinations) is showing in statistics for hospital admissions. Vaccinated are much better protected against (severe) disease. 

In one of his video's Dr. John Campbell mentioned recent (UK) findings of Pfizer vaccine offering 70% protection against severe disease with the India/Delta variant. Against the early variant protection was 95%. In the Dutch story the Dutch experts claim the India-variant is not yet widespread in NL. 

At [url]https://www.rivm.nl/coronavirus-covid-19/virus/varianten[/url] or https://www.rivm.nl/coronavirus-covid-19/virus/varianten the Dutch CDC mentions 11 Delta and 3 Kappa-India variants per june 8. However [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ gives a different number for NL Delta variants 86. Latest PANGOLIN numbers [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics from june 12 put that NL number at 53. 

I use NL as an example for how "rich countries" use science for decisions. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Kappa_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Kappa_variant#Statistics -the other India variant-has 9 cases in NL based on PANGOLIN numbers-only 3 based on Dutch CDC numbers...

When you translate 53 cases-as a compromise-of the India-Delta variant in NL with 17,5 million people towards UK population numbers (UK population 68,2 million) you could go for almost 4 times that 53 number=212 Delta cases...(If you would follow the Dutch CDC numbers 11x4=44) So NL is reopening with already a relative high number of India variants as "starter" in its borders-just like many other countries do-we know how things are going in the UK...

I do not understand this bit at all...I was looking at one variant-but the SA, P1 variant are also on the rise-yet many countries-like NL-are reopening. Why ? 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for the "rich countries" in general the general numbers are going down, vaccinations are going up, less pressure on hospitals, R0<1...so we reopen...can't fix stupid !

In "official numbers" we did go over 176 million tested/reported cases, 3,8 million deaths...but numbers in reality may be 10 times as high...and "natural immunity" did show not being that effective in Brazil, India against variants. The trend for vaccine immunity-with now 70% protection from Pfizer against the India variant is downward. Further spread of newer variants in population with more vaccine protection will bring more vaccine evading mutations/variants...we are on the way to a resistent Covid19 variant. 

Dr.J.C. mentioned for the UK different symptoms-more like a severe cold-in a younger population not yet vaccinated after India-variant infection. (In his video with Prof. Hunter the Prof. mentioned the 1880 bovine/cow outbreak of Covid that started a spread in humans with severe cold-now part of 4 corona-cold virusses in humans. Also the 1890 Russian Flu has been related with a corona-virus. Based on "genetic archeology" they traced back the start of a corona-cold virus in humans-DJ-could be the same story-1880 or 1890 there was disagreement on that...)

I could mention in new-reported/tested-cases Brazil #1 again with 86,000+ new cases-2,215 deaths, India at #2 with 84,695 new reported cases-4,000 deaths...Colombia, Argentina at #3 and 4 with between 25,000 and 30,000 new cases-569 and 687 deaths-the US at #5 with 16,000+ new cases still and 421 deaths...the UK now at #8 with 8,125 new cases (almost all Delta/India variant) and 17 deaths-next week the UK is expected to see 20,000 new cases+ per day, deaths 40 per day (did get down to 10 recently...). 

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917263-johnson-set-to-delay-lockdown-easing-in-england-by-one-month[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917263-johnson-set-to-delay-lockdown-easing-in-england-by-one-month ;Boris Johnson is set to delay the lifting of remaining coronavirus restrictions in England for a month after his chief medical adviser pressed him to postpone the move following a surge in Covid-19 cases.

The restrictions are meant to be removed on June 21, but Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, has sought a four-week delay. The prime minister is due to make an announcement on Monday. The expected delay to lifting restrictions comes as the NHS races to vaccinate more adults amid a sharp rise in Covid-19 infections and hospitalisations across the UK due to the coronavirus variant named Delta.

... Nine in every 10 new Covid-19 cases are the Delta variant, according to a Public Health England report released on Friday.

PHE data also indicated Delta, first identified in India, is 64 per cent more transmissible than the previously dominant Alpha variant that originated in Kent.

DJ-Since for political reasons the UK does not want national increase of NPI/lockdown there will be more regional NPI measures-AFTER cases show/go up...so-again-reactive NOT pro-active. Lots of EU countries are increasing travel restrictions to limit travel to/from the UK (again)-DJ-but of course the Delta-and other variants are widespread in the EU (and US, worldwide) as well...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/917261-as-more-kids-go-down-the-%E2%80%98deep-dark-tunnel%E2%80%99-of-long-covid-doctors-still-can%E2%80%99t-predict-who-is-at-risk[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/917261-as-more-kids-go-down-the-%E2%80%98deep-dark-tunnel%E2%80%99-of-long-covid-doctors-still-can%E2%80%99t-predict-who-is-at-risk and

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/917259-multisystem-inflammatory-syndrome-in-children-is-driven-by-zonulin-dependent-loss-of-gut-mucosal-barrier[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/917259-multisystem-inflammatory-syndrome-in-children-is-driven-by-zonulin-dependent-loss-of-gut-mucosal-barrier DJ-There was the illusion children would not be effected-in large numbers-by this pandemic. That idea did change with even planned testing of vaccines in 5 month old babies....The idea of "herd immunity" now more via vaccines then "natural infection/immunity" -"to keep the economy going" is still becoming more insane/criminal...Stop The Spread ! But "we" choose to vaccinate babies, go for 3rd/4th "booster vaccines" so "we can keep flying around the planet" ...stupid !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917255-cidrap-trouble-for-some-us-covid-19-vaccines[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917255-cidrap-trouble-for-some-us-covid-19-vaccines ; 1-The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) today said 60 million doses of the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine cannot be used because of possible contamination, according to the New York Times.
The vaccines are part of the 170 million vaccines produced at the troubled Emergent BioSolutions plant in Baltimore. Ten million Johnson & Johnson vaccines from the plant will still be useable, the FDA said.
While losing 60 million doses does not impact America's vaccination campaign, the decision could have global repercussions as the Biden administration looks to share more doses of COVID-19 vaccines to countries currently in need of supply.

2-In related news, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices will meet next week to discuss a possible link between heart inflammation and mRNA-based coronavirus vaccines, the Washington Post reports.
Yesterday, the CDC said it had identified 216 cases of myocarditis after an initial dose of an mRNA vaccine, and another 573 after a second. Most cases have been mild and self-correcting, but at least 15 people remain hospitalized. Of note, more than half of the 800 cases were reported in people ages 12 to 24, even though that age group accounted for less than 10% of the vaccine recipient population in the United States.

3-A study today from the CDC shows that routine childhood immunizations fell in 10 jurisdictions during the first months of the pandemic and have not caught up to pre-pandemic numbers.
Data were analyzed from 10 states (Idaho, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York City, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin), with vaccinations measured during two periods: March to May 2020 and June to September 2020.
All vaccinations dropped during the first period, with measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) doses administered to children aged 12 to 23 months and children aged 2 to 8 years declining a median of 22.4% and 63.1%, respectively. Children ages 9 to 12 years and adolescents ages 13 to 17 years saw HPV doses administered decline by a median of 63.6% and 71.3%, respectively, during March to May 2020 compared with the same period in 2018 and 2019, the authors said.
During the second phase, when stay-at-home orders were lifted, vaccinations increased, but "none of the jurisdictions demonstrated a sustained or prolonged increase in the number of weekly doses administered above prepandemic administration levels, which would have been necessary to catch up children and adolescents who missed routine vaccinations."

DJ-The "herd immunity strategy" now based on vaccines is dealing with production problems, safety problems and resulting in less capacity to vaccinate against other diseases. Related: [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917254-cidrap-global-covid-deaths-in-2021-have-topped-all-of-last-year-s[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917254-cidrap-global-covid-deaths-in-2021-have-topped-all-of-last-year-s ;COVID-19 deaths in 2021 worldwide have surpassed the total number of COVID-19 deaths in all of 2020, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Johns Hopkins data yesterday. As of Jun 10, 1,884,146 people have died of COVID-19 in 2021, compared with the 1,880,510 in 2020.
The numbers highlight how unevenly the pandemic has spread, now hitting poorer nations harder, as they scramble to vaccinate their populations.

South America hardest-hit continent

The United States, Brazil, and India have the most COVID-19 deaths, according to Statista, but even as these outbreaks have started to slow or decline, other countries struggle with vaccine access, new variants, and burdened healthcare systems.
South America is currently the hardest-hit continent, with more than 40 new daily cases per 100,000 people in countries like Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Suriname, according to the New York Times global COVID-19 tracker. One of those countries, Colombia, saw its highest COVID-19 death toll Jun 9, with 550 deaths, and 97.6% of its intensive care unit beds for COVID-19 patients were occupied, according to The City Paper Bogota.

DJ South Africa President Ramaphosa [url]https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyril_Ramaphosa[/url] or https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyril_Ramaphosa did call the present vaccination campain "vaccine apartheid"-DJ-The rich elite are responsible for both climate change and this pandemic. The way they (can) behave did not change much-and yet they get 100% protection...This pandemic again underlines inequality/global apartheid, facism/racism...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream ; Israeli oral COVID-19 vaccine en route to clinical trials
...
By MAAYAN JAFFE-HOFFMAN JUNE 11, 2021 06:26
...
The company is calling their vaccine MigVax-101. Unlike the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines that use messenger RNA, this is an oral subunit vaccine, meaning the vaccine presents the coronavirus antigen to the immune system without introducing pathogen particles, whole or otherwise.

In the preclinical trial, the company administered the vaccine in a boost format to the rats following a double injection of the coronavirus spike (S1) protein. The results showed that using MigVax as a booster elicited markedly higher neutralizing antibody titers than rats receiving an oral placebo booster, a release explained. In addition, it elicited more effective neutralizing antibodies than a third S1 booster injection.

“They are looking to use this as a booster for those who took the Chinese vaccine, AstraZeneca or Moderna or Pfizer,” Dr. Morris Laster, who is responsible for medical technology investments for OurCrowd told The Jerusalem Post. OurCrowd led MigVax’s first investment round.

According to Laster, the vaccine has several advantages, including that because it is an oral vaccine it would not require administration by a medical professional. Also, it utilizes more than one kind of protein, which could make it more effective against variants. The vaccine does not require freezing conditions like the mRNA vaccines so it could be easier to store and distribute.

Finally, because it does not inject people with genetic or viral material, Laster believes that more people will be prone to taking it.

DJ-East-Finland University was working on a nasal vaccine-spray (a.o.) -new ways of vaccination-means also other ways of distribution/logistics...If we go for the vaccine strategy our best hopes are in easy to use effective vaccines. (The idea of a micro-needle plaster with vaccine to put on your arm still in my opinion would be a good idea. Could be send by mail. Also be of use in very remote area's where the variants not yet did show up.) 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/917246-two-passengers-test-positive-for-covid-on-celebrity-millennium-fully-vaccinated-cruise[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/917246-two-passengers-test-positive-for-covid-on-celebrity-millennium-fully-vaccinated-cruise ;Two passengers from the United States who shared a room on board Celebrity Cruises' Celebrity Millennium ship, which was billed as carrying "fully vaccinated crew and guests", have tested positive for COVID-19, the cruise line said in a statement.

DJ I know there are high costs involved in not using cruise ships-but can those ships not be used as hospitalships ? Do we need to repeat mistakes over and over again ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/914732-covid-19-variant-1-617-series-including-1-617-2-delta-1-617-1-kappa[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/914732-covid-19-variant-1-617-series-including-1-617-2-delta-1-617-1-kappa latest activity; Feng Zijian, a researcher at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said at the press conference that the existing research data shows that the mutant strain that caused the Guangzhou epidemic has a relatively strong transmission capacity. It is twice as powerful as the old strain in the past, and is the first in the United Kingdom. The transmission capacity of the discovered strains has increased by more than 40%.

-

Feng Zijian introduced that this epidemic has its own characteristics, especially the number of middle-aged and elderly cases, clusters of cases, gatherings, and gatherings. This is also related to the specific lifestyle of Guangdong cities, such as drinking morning tea in venues. The vaccination rate of cases before the onset of infection is relatively low, which puts forward new and higher requirements for the implementation of epidemic response and prevention and control measures.
"Guangzhou has recently implemented strict prevention and control strategies and measures. The epidemic prevention and control situation has tended to ease, and it is developing in a very positive direction. The epidemic is in a controllable state." Feng Zijian said, in fact, since China has entered normalized prevention and control , There have been local transmission epidemics in many places in China, but these local epidemics have been found through on-site epidemiology, molecular epidemiology, seroepidemiology and digital epidemiology traceability investigations, and they are all related to overseas imported cases and imports. The related goods indicate that China’s current risk is still imported from abroad, and China is still in the normalized prevention and control stage of "preventing foreign import and preventing internal rebound."

DJ-Low vaccination+viral spread=more NPI. I did put the idea yesterday that 60% of population vaccinated means more NPI, 70% would see reduction of restrictions, 80% could give a lot of room depending on variant risks...Health as the leading factor in how to deal with a pandemic-NOT economy ! The present strategy of reopening when the the R0=<1 and closing when the results are the R0 gets >1 is repeating mistakes-destroying the economy...the worst combination of measures making this pandemic lasting much longer ! We need an R0 of 0,1-NOT 0,8 !!! to reopen.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/pneumonia-respiratory-and-influenza-like-illnesses-ili-ac/germany-ab/917241-germany-h1n1v-influenza-case-reported-in-teen[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/pneumonia-respiratory-and-influenza-like-illnesses-ili-ac/germany-ab/917241-germany-h1n1v-influenza-case-reported-in-teen ;The individual infected is a 17-year-old boy from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania who developed an
influenza-like illness onset on 18 April 2021.

The virus was confirmed with genome sequencing conducted at the National Influenza Centre (NIC) at the Robert Koch Institute in a sample collected as part of routine sentinel surveillance. Sequencing indicated the virus belonged to the Eurasian avian-like (EA) lineage of swine influenza A viruses, specifically clade 1C.2.1.

The patient worked on a swine farm a few days prior to illness onset. After developing respiratory symptoms, he was isolated as SARS-CoV-2 infection was suspected. There were no symptoms in other workers at the farm or other members of the case’s family and the case has recovered. Further animal health and virological investigations are ongoing.

DJ Viralspread in non-human hosts (a reservoir) and then jumping back to humans is a realistic scenario for most diseases. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917236-uganda-covid-19-kills-14-in-one-day-most-health-facilities-full-to-capacity[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917236-uganda-covid-19-kills-14-in-one-day-most-health-facilities-full-to-capacity ; From June 1 to June 10, a total of 38 Covid-19 deaths were registered and over 8,273 confirmed new cases. However, health experts have urged the public to observe Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) to avert the spread of the pandemic as most health facilities are full to capacity.

Dr Charles Olaro, the director curative services at Ministry of Health, said unlike the first wave where cases were mild and asymptomatic, currently the cases are severe and critical...

DJ-This pandemic is far from over. But most people/media are unable to escape from tunnelvision. We all live in a sort of bubble-and as long as one is aware of that one may need that bubble...Most of the world is sinking even deeper in a healthcare crisis that was already bad before this pandemic started-often on top of a HIV/AIDS pandemic. With spread of many variants in almost all continents new variants-better in evading immunity-are a matter of time. At some places we may get "a break" "enjoy that moment"! Most experts expect a rise in cases this autumn/fall-even with vaccinations (proberbly much milder illness...). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/917225-uk-phe-technical-briefing-revised-risk-assessment-household-transmission-study-on-covid-variant-b-1-617-2-delta[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/917225-uk-phe-technical-briefing-revised-risk-assessment-household-transmission-study-on-covid-variant-b-1-617-2-delta DJ-I will put this at India-variants in the UK-section. See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/917212-nat-med-impact-of-vaccination-on-new-sars-cov-2-infections-in-the-united-kingdom[/url] and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917210-delta-variant-who-director-increase-predicted-in-number-of-cases-europe-wide[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917210-delta-variant-who-director-increase-predicted-in-number-of-cases-europe-wide 

DJ-What is happening now in the UK we may see in the EU/US within a month...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917209-russia-case-numbers-increase[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917209-russia-case-numbers-increase ;Russia on Friday reported 12,505 new coronavirus cases in the last 24 hours, its highest number of daily infections since late February. Cases had been running at a steady 7,000-9,500 per day for weeks on end, but have seen an uptick this week.

DJ Limited info-UK variant spread still ? 

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJrfPFTk3pU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJrfPFTk3pU Friday Update; UK, Cases, + 8,125, Highest since February 26  Confirmed infections up 58.1% week on week   Deaths, + 17 70 million vaccines administered

Indian/Delta variant, doubling every 4.5 to 11.5 days in English 60% per cent more infectious than Kent/Alpha variant 5% of Indian variant infections are in the fully vaccinated

5 April to 16 May N = 1,054 confirmed B.1.617.2 genomic sequencing Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, 88% effective against symptomatic disease from B.1.617.2 variant 2 weeks after the second dose (93% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7) 2 doses of AstraZeneca, 60% effective against symptomatic disease from the B.1.617.2 (66% effectiveness against B.1.1.7) Both vaccines, 33% effective against symptomatic disease from B.1.617.2, 3 weeks after the first dose (50% effectiveness against B.1.1.7) AstraZeneca later than Pfizer-BioNTech

So far, up to 9 May Vaccination programme has prevented 13,000 39,100 hospitalisations in older people in England.

Bolton May, 155,016 Covid tests were carried out in Bolton - one test for every two people Looked for reasons to vaccinate

Nadhim Zahawi We are on track for offering all over 50s who have had the first jab their second jab by June 21 Very high levels of uptake, in the 90%s but we have got to make sure they get their second jab 5 or 6% who didn't have their jab, please come forward

Jim McManus, vice-president of the Association of Directors of Public Health  invest that little bit of time to keep us going forwards, it will stop us going backwards The complete lifting of measures on the 21st of June not only risks an increase in cases and hospitalisation, but risks the introduction of new variants to the UK which will undermine our vaccination programme and derail our path back to normality

DJ-Looking at statistics for the India-variants-on average the US/EU are now where the UK was about four weeks ago...I do not see any reason why the UK scenario will not unfold both in the US and EU-with possibly less vaccine protection. There is still discussion and new studies on how good what vaccine protects what age group against what variant-may even see gender differences...

Improving vaccine strategy-including younger people-but also using vaccines most efficient-may save lives. Reopening to soon kills...

Music; Ben-Michael Jackson-lyrics [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvGEZ4S_SuY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvGEZ4S_SuY "you're not wanted anywhere" (I believe "Ben" was a "rat-pet"...variants also not wanted anywhere...)

DJ-Since we are going from wave three UK (Alfa-why Alfa ?)-variant to wave four-India (Delta/Kappa) variant lots of news-long story...

I think that the objective has always been to wreck our economy. It's been done and now puitn and the Chinese have created a perfect  storm for them.  There is going to be slow growth or maybe no growth for the next three to five years.  Until we get our debt burden under control, we will have staginflation.  Prices will go up, wages will not  and we are going to pay a price for it  in the near term.  In the long term, China and Russia will be in terminal decline.  Population control and central planning mistakes have led to ecological disasters.  Currently, China is in a water crisis.   As I see the pandemic and it's aftereffects, I don't have any doubts as to the causes and it's results.   As for myself, I hope to return to work in august. Vicki is still having lung and heart issues.  Jill and Becky are working for us with the insurance company picking up the whole bill and they have told us they will pay the bill as long as we are alive.  I am incredibly lucky to be alive.  I saw so much death and sadness and pain over the past  year and 6 months.  I can only hope that our suffering has helped save someone's life.  Of the 45 of us in the ICU ward, 36 died .   I knew that death was all around . I had six roomnates as we were lined up in the ward.  I had wondered why i am alive and I think it's to tell the truth.  COVID is a horrible way to die.  The families were always dressed in these suits and they couldn't even say good bye in any dignified manner. I shed many tears for the families of those who were dying.  You knew your roomate was going to die if they called in the family.  Vicki and I were very lucky not to be separated.  I knew that if we were separated, we would die.  i loved her so much that I think I willed here alive.   The nursing home was a depressing situation, they would not let us sleep in the same bed. I think it hurt her a lot more than she lot us know.  Thank god for Jill and Becky.  My dad's old insurance company hired them and gave them marching orders to keep us  alive.    Thanks for everything, AFT.   We would not be alive if it were not for AFT and Albert.  

Thanks ME163 - it is good to hear your story (however painful it is to consider all the death and suffering).

I have a friend, a good friend, and not a stupid one by any standards.  Yet he believes so much internet rubbish about this virus, I would not know where to start unpicking or reporting it.

Our mainstream media have tried to inform people, Those of us who understand viruses, or the mathematics of itheir spread, or both try repeatedly to explain the ongoing dangers and damage.  Our medical professionals try their best and the closure of health centres (except for vaccines for covid itself), doctor's surgeries and hospital outpatient departments dramatically demonstrate them.  Yet despite all this and the re-allocation of hospital rescources and our "clap for carers" propaganda (Oh, yes it was!), the myths and misinformation persist.  AND PEOPLE BELIEVE IN THEM!!!

I don't know how many will listen to your story Me, but for all its horror, I'm glad it is there.  Thank you.  As long as such stories are told, there is still a chance that enough people like my friend will see the truth and join the fight against the tide of death and misery.

It may be a small contribution, but it is a very real one.  Few could do any better.

DJ,

-Let me start with politics; [url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/13/johnsons-g7-after-all-the-hype-what-was-actually-achieved[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/13/johnsons-g7-after-all-the-hype-what-was-actually-achieved ;

The former UK prime minister Gordon Brown said the G7’s 2021 summit would be remembered “only for a colossal failure to honour Boris Johnston’s promise to vaccinate the world, an unforgivable moral failure when Covid is destroying lives at the rate of one-third of a million every month”.

He echoed the World Health Organization’s view that the G7 had needed to commit to distribute 11bn vaccines, and not just 1bn. He said he was also disappointed the group had not supported compulsory patent transfers to boost production in Africa.

-

Oxfam’s head of inequality policy, Max Lawson, said: “Never in the history of the G7 has there been a bigger gap between their actions and the needs of the world. We don’t need to wait for history to judge this summit a colossal failure, it is plain for all to see.”

DJ-[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/06/why-is-there-a-biden-putin-summit-and-what-is-it-supposed-to-achieve.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/06/why-is-there-a-biden-putin-summit-and-what-is-it-supposed-to-achieve.html Another goal of the G7 meeting was "to unite the free world against China"...Very likely one of Bidens goal wednesday in Geneva when he is meeting Putin. So political priorities in the worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu-with a potential to get much worse !!! are;

-Keep US #1-the EU should decrease trade while China is getting tradingpartner #1...

-The promise of 1 billion vaccines

-NOT stopping coal while climate change is going exponential...(and we could be heading to a june-heatwave, still unusual for (this part of) NL this week...)

Again-we do not have to agree on politics-or the role politics has to play on this forum. But we may agree that this G7-top "did not restore trust" in the political elite...

-Some numbers; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ the lowest number of reported daily cases was on february  22-with 287,000+ cases. Sunday-june 13-reported-new cases of 300,000+, still 6,784 deaths is above that. But yes daily cases-in general-are going down. A top 10 for most new cases still has India at #1-reporting "just" over 68,000 new cases. Brazil, Colombia as #2&3. Russia-with 14,723 new cases at #4-the mayor of Moscow started a lottery-you can win a car if you get vaccinated. Only 10% of Moscovites did so far get vaccinated...#5=Argentina, 6=Indonesia, 7=Iran, 8=South Africa, 9=UK, 10=Chile...US is at #13 in this list...5,285 new cases. 

Four Latin American countries in this top 10-the other 6 spread over Africa, Asia, Europe...

Trends; Global -11%-slowly the decrease of cases in India will end to influence the global numbers. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table ; 19 countries reporting 100% or more increase-often with low numbers (0 cases last week-1 case this week =100% increase) and poor testing...but this is statistics, trends, indications...UK reporting +49%, South Africa +50%, Russia +31%, DRC (Congo) +23%, Portugal +20%, Brazil +8%, China +2% are warning signs !!!! In total 75 countries reporting an increase. This pandemic is far from over !

Another item here in NL news-Denmark reopening more but testing 10X more then NL...Here in NL on saturday 330,000 people did get vaccinated. Yesterday we went over 12 million vaccines-on a population of 17,5 million vaccinations may be "on the move"...

-Flutrackers-latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/917328-circulating-sars-cov-2-variants-b-1-1-7-501y-v2-and-p-1-have-gained-ability-to-utilize-rat-and-mouse-ace2-and-altered-in-vitro-sensitivity-to-neutralizing-antibodies-and-ace2-ig[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/917328-circulating-sars-cov-2-variants-b-1-1-7-501y-v2-and-p-1-have-gained-ability-to-utilize-rat-and-mouse-ace2-and-altered-in-vitro-sensitivity-to-neutralizing-antibodies-and-ace2-ig ; Spontaneous and selection-pressure-driven evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has started to pose more challenges to controlling the pandemic. Here, we first investigated cross-species receptor usage of multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants that emerged during the pandemic. We found that, in contrast to an early isolate WHU01, the circulating variants B.1.1.7/501Y.V1, B.1.351/501Y.V2, and P.1/501Y.V3 were able to use rat and mouse Ace2 orthologs as entry receptors, suggesting that rats and mice might be able to harbor and spread these variants.

DJ-Yes we did see millions of minks-in cages/farms-being infected-spreading to humans (reports from Denmark and NL). Those minks got killed...Wild mice, rats catching the UK, SA, P1-Brazil (and no doubt the India-)variants should be alarming. These tests show mice, rats are able to get infected, spread the virus...this may make the pandemic much worse !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916069-china-confirmed-community-spread-of-1-617-variant-possible-delta-guangzhou-guangdong-province-may-23-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916069-china-confirmed-community-spread-of-1-617-variant-possible-delta-guangzhou-guangdong-province-may-23-2021?view=stream latest activities; starting from June 13, 2021, Zhujiang Xiyi Road, Zhujiang Street, Nansha District, Nansha District (No. 142, 144, 146, 148, 150) was adjusted from a low-risk area to a medium-risk area. The risk level of other regions remains unchanged.

-

Since the first case was discovered on May 21, Guangzhou has immediately initiated all measures to comprehensively respond to the epidemic, with tracing, isolation, sub-regional control, national nucleic acid testing, and treatment being advanced step by step.
However, despite the “war epidemic” of the entire population in Guangzhou, under the influence of various objective factors, the number of confirmed cases is increasing day by day. As of the latest notification on the 13th, from May 21 to June 12 at 24:00, a total of 142 domestic infections were reported in the city in this round of the epidemic; among them, 135 were confirmed cases and 7 were asymptomatic infections.
So, are there loopholes in Guangzhou's epidemic prevention and control? 

-

What's the explanation for the "cold" path of nearly 60% of confirmed cases?
At a press conference on epidemic prevention and control held in Guangzhou on June 12, Yang Zhicong, director of the Guangzhou Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, revealed that the recent flow of investigations found that more than 60% of the confirmed cases had fever, dry cough, fatigue, sore throat, and hypoosmia. When I waited for the symptoms, I thought I had just caught a cold and did not seek medical treatment in time, which delayed the best treatment time and timely treatment.
The "nearly 60% of confirmed cases" mentioned by Yang Zhicong have not been fully announced. It is still unknown whether these confirmed cases were discovered after the onset of the disease or during the control period.
Because the Delta has a relatively short incubation period of 2 to 4 days, that is, the time from infection to onset is 2 to 4 days. In the case of high viral load, the close contact and close contact have a chance to expose the virus. , And get infected.

DJ-Communications "is not the strongest point" in/for China...Symptoms much more cold-like is also seen in the UK. In other sources-drones are used to control city streets...China can get very draconian in dealing with this pandemic. They do not want further spread of the India-variant in China. Earlier there were reports of closing borders with India, Nepal...to keep the variant out in that region. 

What we should get out of the news from China is that containing the India-variant is problematic. India, UK did see crisis-other countries are moving towards wave 4-India variant based...we could/should try to stop it ! But we-again-do not !

From the same article;

Why can a virus span 5 incubation periods?
From the prevention and control of multiple epidemics in Liaoning, Anhui, and Yunnan, it can be seen that the general epidemic will be controlled within 1 to 3 incubation periods. At the State Council Joint Prevention and Control Press Conference on June 11, Feng Zijian, a researcher at the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, once said that once a cluster of epidemics is discovered, the local party committee and government should quickly activate the emergency mechanism, quickly carry out circulation, and completely isolate the close contacts. , Carry out nucleic acid testing in time, and the epidemic will generally be effectively controlled within 1 to 3 incubation periods.
However, in Guangzhou, the transmission of the virus has reached 5 to 6 generations, and the incubation period experienced has already exceeded 3 or even reached 5 incubation periods.
China Business News found from the trajectory of confirmed case 6 announced on June 11 that it was a close contact of confirmed case 5 on June 8; confirmed case 5 was a close contact of confirmed case 4 (73 years old) on June 8 ; Confirmed case 4 is a close contact of the asymptomatic infected person transferred to the confirmed case on May 30; the 14 asymptomatic infected persons on May 30 were mostly close contacts on May 26.
It can be seen that the virus of the confirmed case on June 11 has crossed at least 5 incubation periods, and finally the confirmed case enters the hospital for treatment.
In the case of layer-by-layer management of close connection and close connection, why does the virus continue to pass down? Even passed the incubation period of 1~3?
Many questions have not yet been answered, and these answers may be related to the end of the Guangzhou epidemic.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/jjackson-s-workshop/41373-global-shipping-conveyor-jit-pandemic-and-bdi[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/jjackson-s-workshop/41373-global-shipping-conveyor-jit-pandemic-and-bdi ; One of the first things I wrote on Pandemics, in 2005, contained a section warning of the dangers to the supply chain caused by the combined effects of globalisation, Just-in-Time (JIT) manufacturing & distribution and Urbanisation - as a manifestation of population growth and its redistribution. More recently I have been concerned by the re-emergence of discussions on port closers as a means of slowing, or even preventing, pandemic spread. I have warned that this is a dangerous idea but not really taken the time to explain why - which I will now try to rectify.

I have referred to the system as the Global Conveyor (more properly reserved for the ocean's deep current system, also under threat with catastrophic consequences but for different reasons) but it is the web of ports and shipping lines that move all the tangible essentials for global trade that I am dealing with.

-

Disruption in the global container shipping industry shows no sign of being resolved quickly and could lead to shortages in the run-up to Christmas, say industry experts.
An outbreak of Covid-19 in Guangdong province in southern China has caused acute congestion at the region's ports. As a result, shipments have been delayed, exacerbating tensions within global supply chains.
And the knock-on effects could take many months to resolve.
The problems in Guangdong are just the latest in a series of severe setbacks for the industry. Shipping firms have been struggling to cope with dramatic fluctuations in demand triggered by the pandemic, as well as the consequences from the recent blockage of the Suez Canal ...

DJ-Also discussed elsewhere on this forum.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/vietnam-2019-ncov/917330-two-women-struggling-with-cancer-have-become-vietnam%E2%80%99s-56th-and-57th-coronavirus-fatalities-the-health-ministry-announced-friday[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/vietnam-2019-ncov/917330-two-women-struggling-with-cancer-have-become-vietnam%E2%80%99s-56th-and-57th-coronavirus-fatalities-the-health-ministry-announced-friday ;

One of them is 65 years old and from the northern Ninh Binh Province. She had cervical cancer and had gone through chemo and radiation therapies six different times.
...
She died on Thursday of septic shock, pneumonia caused by Covid-19, fungal infection on the background of cervical cancer with metastases in abdominal lymph nodes, the health ministry said.

The 57th death is a 59-year-old woman in northern Ha Nam Province.

She was in the last stage of gallbladder cancer and was also treated at the K Hospital.
...
Ten days into Covid-19 treatment, she must use the ventilator. She also got blood clot disorder and superinfection...

DJ The Vietnam-variant is not yet in this (growing) list [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Variants_of_concern[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Variants_of_concern . Vietnam so far reporting 57 deaths in this pandemic is a "very low number"...Did they do that well in keeping the virus out or under control ? How ? If they managed that well other countries could learn from it !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/917333-uk-nervtag-report-on-immunity-after-natural-covid-infection[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/917333-uk-nervtag-report-on-immunity-after-natural-covid-infection ; 

A population based study out of Denmark publish in March 2021 (see Denmark SSI: Assessment of Protection Against Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2) found that those under 65 are about 80% protected - at in the short term (6 months) - against reinfection with COVID-19.

It should be noted that these results were based primarily on the older, `wild type' COVID, not the recently emerged variants carrying the E484K mutation, and so these numbers may not hold true going forward.

-

Citing a low confidence level, this report finds roughly half of those over 65 may be vulnerable to reinfection, while they more confidently submit that close to 20% of the rest of the population may be susceptible to symptomatic reinfection within the first 7 months.

DJ-(Natural) Immunity is a very complex story-certainly with a growing number of variants and mass vaccinations in a limited number of richer countries. I expect booster shots will be needed-also next year-to offer protection. Even if we would be very, very lucky in a few rich countries and decrease in cases would last (the "Israel scenario") vaccines may be needed to keep local flare up of cases limited. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917332-prayagraj-first-case-of-yellow-fungus-reported-in-city-dire-need-for-amphotericin-b[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917332-prayagraj-first-case-of-yellow-fungus-reported-in-city-dire-need-for-amphotericin-b and

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917331-doctors-at-patna-s-igims-remove-cricket-ball-sized-black-fungus-from-man-s-brain[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917331-doctors-at-patna-s-igims-remove-cricket-ball-sized-black-fungus-from-man-s-brain 

DJ-Fungul coinfections should be expected much more...will increase the number of people dying in this pandemic. The first six months of this year (not even over yet...) did see more people dying from Covid 19 then all of 2020. The second half of this year could even see a higher number then the first half...we are not doing enough to stop it...reopening much to fast...To many different variants are increasing, mixing-most likely vaccines will offer less protection over time...even with booster shots.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/917329-rutin-a-potential-antiviral-for-repurposing-as-a-sars-cov-2-main-protease-mpro-inhibitor[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/917329-rutin-a-potential-antiviral-for-repurposing-as-a-sars-cov-2-main-protease-mpro-inhibitor ; Various computational studies, including in silico ones, have identified several existing compounds that could serve as effective inhibitors of the SARS-CoV-2 main protease (M^pro), and thus preventing replication of the virus. Among these, rutin has been identified as a potential hit, having prominent binding affinity to the virus. Moreover, its presence in several traditional antiviral medicines prescribed in China to infected patients with mild to moderate symptoms of COVID-19 justify its promise as a repurposed bioactive secondary metabolite against SARS-CoV-2.

DJ-Good news ! If we may not be able to stop this pandemic better treatment is needed !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/917327-pa-did-pneumonia-kill-dozens-of-deer-in-dauphin-county-in-2019[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/917327-pa-did-pneumonia-kill-dozens-of-deer-in-dauphin-county-in-2019 ; Pneumonia may have played a part in the deaths of about 2 dozen deer in the Powell’s Valley area of northern Dauphin County. Hunters and others in the Carsonville area, east of Halifax, started finding dead and sick deer in late November. The animals had not been shot or otherwise injured.

Now, according to the Pennsylvania Game Commission, preliminary test results from 3 of the deer showed they all had “one or more types of pneumonia.” Further testing for other diseases has not yet returned results...

DJ-Very likely NOT related to Covid19-still corona virusses in (other then human) animals has been a problem for decades.,..

No new video from Dr. John Campbell-yet...So...

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8O3xCpC6M8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8O3xCpC6M8 Blondie-Denis...was it 1977 ? Debbie Harry even got invited by the muppets !

Due to extreme weather I may spread reporting over the day, start at another moment-or even not/limit reporting. In a "bad scenario" we could end up in a heat wave lasting months...Later in the week we may get 35C/close to 100F. Most heat waves in NL are in july and august. Unofficial heatrecord was north of Arnhem in 2019-around 43C/close to 110F. At those temperatures forrests may become "explosive"...Stay safe !

It seems that while Eastern Europe's rates are falling the current hot spots (when measured in fatalities) are spread around (although there is a heavy concentration in South America):

Figures are in deaths / million for the two weeks 1st-14th June (all data taken from (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)  on the day of reporting (Peru's figures included the massive revision, which I have not back dated

Peru (3,578),  Paraguay (244), Uruguay (218), Suriname (185), Argentina (173), Colombia (147). Bahrain (145), Brazil (118), Sint Maarten (92), Bolivia (90), Seychelles (85), Romania (82), Chile (77), Tunisia (76).

If Tunisia is doing so badly, I wonder what the real rates for the rest of North Africa are.   Also Bahrain's current rate is much worse than Turkey or Iran's so I also wonder what is really happening on the Arab Peninsular. 

 [added later:  I know that neither Turkey nor Iran are in the Arab Peninsular, but figures for Saudi Arabia and many of the neighbouring countries are still much lower than Bahrain]

DJ

I have growing doubts on the official numbers [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ is trying to update the numbers of variants...A Dutch article [url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/binnenland/indiase-variant-rukt-op-in-nederland-onderzoek-naar-jongeren-die-examenfeestjes-zijn-gaan-vieren~a508759f/[/url] or https://www.gelderlander.nl/binnenland/indiase-variant-rukt-op-in-nederland-onderzoek-naar-jongeren-die-examenfeestjes-zijn-gaan-vieren~a508759f/ is warning last week 205 possible India/Delta variant cases may have shown up in groups of young people 15-19 y/o returning from Spain/Portugal holidays/party-times. Mixing a.o. with UK age group. Testing under the not vaccinated under 30 y/o may be minimal. 

Also wrong communication as the Delta-variant giving "severe cold" like symptoms-while experts warn twice as many people having the Delta-variant end up in hospital-does not help. In Nijmegen University Hospital an expert is warning in east of NL last week 5% of cases were Delta variant-this week 9%-we could be in +90% of cases being Delta variant in five weeks...

Dutch CDC is ad random sequencing cases-in their numbers they miss most/all Delta variant-cases because the young-so far-hardly test...There is community spread of the Delta variant-the Dutch CDC see them as very limited-even lower then the GISAID numbers...

NL is opening up high speed-there are plans to stop using masks in lots of places, no mandatory social distancing per june 24...But we may be missing almost all of the Delta-variant cases...so this reopening could be based on wrong numbers...

EdwinSm-I think we may be seeing an international problem with testing. Proberbly will find out a very hard way-this summer-could face an India-explosion like scenario. R0 may be 6 to 8 in unvaccinated "party people" enjoying freedom to travel and party...

-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table trends-based on testing, reporting-so missing a lot of cases if people do not test...-6% worldwide. India being in high numbers has now gone out of the statistics...UK reporting +39%...US -15% but can we trust these numbers ? 

Here in NL lots of experts see room based on official numbers-while others are warning-certainly those that work with younger age groups. 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/16/delta-coronavirus-variant-gaining-ground-nl[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/16/delta-coronavirus-variant-gaining-ground-nl ; 

The Delta variant of the coronavirus, which was first identified in India and is partly blamed for the massive second wave in the country, is gaining ground in the Netherlands. Experts at public health institute RIVM don't expect this variant to cause massive problems here, like it's doing in the United Kingdom, NU.nl reports.

Last week the RIVM's germ surveillance found the Delta or B.1.617.2 variant in 0.5 percent of 1,148 samples tested. This week, after testing 610 samples, this variant was found in 1.1 percent - a share that is 120 percent higher than last week.

For experts at the RIVM, this is indication that the Delta variant is indeed more contagious than the original variant of the coronavirus. The public health institute believes it likely that this variant will continue to gain ground, but doesn't expect it to happen as rapidly as in the UK. Early in May the Delta variant was responsible for a quarter of UK infections. Last week that increased to 91 percent.

The Delta variant spread quickly in the UK partly due to the many direct flights between the country and India. The UK also started relaxing lockdown measures in March, so residents had more contact with one another. The Netherlands has fewer direct flights from India, about seven per week. And only started relaxing lockdown measures on a large scale last month. 

The UK's choice of vaccine also played a role. So far, the Covid-19 vaccines in use seem to be less, but sufficiently effective against the Delta variant. "However, the British government made full use of he AstraZeneca vaccine, which offers less protection after one shot with this variant than, for example, the Pfizer vaccine that is used more here," a RIVM spokesperson said to NU.nl

DJ-Some experts claim 5% of samples were Delta variant last week-this week up to 9%...Dutch CDC/RIVM 0,5% last week-this week 1,1% may be missing most/all cases in younger age groups. [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/16/mandatory-face-mask-rule-abolished-next-week-heath-minister-says[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/16/mandatory-face-mask-rule-abolished-next-week-heath-minister-says ; 

The rule obligating people to wear face masks in many indoor public spaces in the Netherlands could disappear as early as next week, Health Minister Hugo de Jonge said after a meeting of ministers on Wednesday. The final decision will be made on Friday prior to the next prime time coronavirus press conference, he told reporters gathered outside.

“We are reassessing all measures. Which measures are still necessary, and which can be removed,” said De Jonge after consultation with his colleagues. “We are vaccinating very quickly, and then you weigh, what measures are still needed? I think we can say goodbye to quite a few measures, but some will still be needed.”

DJ Vaccinations are going high speed-but under 25 y/o may believe they will not be at risk. Also holiday is not getting testing/vaccines...in their eyes.

[url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/06/delta-coronavirus-variant-is-more-widespread-in-nl-but-experts-dont-expect-a-surge/[/url] or https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/06/delta-coronavirus-variant-is-more-widespread-in-nl-but-experts-dont-expect-a-surge/ ; The Delta variant may spread more quickly once the summer holiday season gets underway, as tourists from the Netherlands meet British visitors abroad, Nu.nl said. Figures from the RIVM do show that more people are thought to have picked up coronavirus abroad and almost 6% of all positive tests in the past week involve people who have recently travelled out of the country. Some seven flights a week arrive in the Netherlands from India now that the ban on air travel has been lifted and replaced by mandatory quarantine. Visitors to Britain also have to go into mandatory quarantine on their return.

DJ-Of course I hope to be wrong...but we have been here before last year...

[url]https://dutchreview.com/news/travellers-from-spain-and-portugal-bring-coronavirus-infections/[/url] or https://dutchreview.com/news/travellers-from-spain-and-portugal-bring-coronavirus-infections/ ; 

The number of infections in Spain and Portugal has increased slightly over the past couple of days, especially among young people. At the same time, both countries recently relaxed most of their coronavirus restrictions.

Spain ditched curfew last month, with the Basque Country no longer implementing restrictions on how many people can be together in a group. Nightlife in Madrid is also slowly going back to normal, with dancing allowed outside, albeit with a face mask and at a 1.5 metres distance. 

However, many young people don’t adhere to the rules that are still in place. “On one hand, you see that the government is trying to open things up to attract tourists but on the other hand, the rules are poorly understood — especially by young people. The youth culture is together on the beach, partying and drinking,” correspondent Rop Zoutberg tells the NOS.

Dutch infections keep going down

Coronavirus infections coming from abroad are of particular concern especially as the numbers in the Netherlands keep dropping. The number of positive coronavirus tests decreased in 288 of the 352 Dutch municipalities last week, reports RTL Nieuws. 

For most municipalities (208), the risk level “concern” applies, meaning there are between 35 and 100 positive tests per 100,000 inhabitants. Serious risk level now only applies to 15 municipalities, compared to 86 municipalities last week.

DJ-This is-of course-not only a Dutch story !

-A look at flutrackers latest post;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/917498-study-nineteen-percent-of-asymptomatic-covid-19-patients-develop-long-haul-covid-analysis-of-private-healthcare-claims-june-15-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/917498-study-nineteen-percent-of-asymptomatic-covid-19-patients-develop-long-haul-covid-analysis-of-private-healthcare-claims-june-15-2021 ;

Findings about long-haul COVID reported in FAIR Health's white paper include:

• The five most common post-COVID conditions across all ages, in order from most to least common, were pain, breathing difficulties, hyperlipidemia, malaise and fatigue, and hypertension.
• The odds of death 30 days or more after initial diagnosis with COVID-19 were 46 times higher for patients who were hospitalized with COVID-19 and discharged than patients who had not been hospitalized. Of COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized and discharged, 0.5 percent died 30 days or more after their initial diagnosis.
• Among COVID-19 patients with preexisting conditions, intellectual disabilities were associated with the highest odds of death 30 days or more after initial COVID-19 diagnosis.
• In addition to asymptomatic patients, those presenting with post-COVID conditions included 27.5 percent of COVID-19 patients who were symptomatic but not hospitalized, 50 percent of hospitalized patients and 23.2 percent of all patients who had COVID-19.
• The ranking of the most common post-COVID conditions varied by age group. For example, in the pediatric population (0-18), pain and breathing difficulties were the top two conditions, as in the all-ages cohort, but intestinal issues, rather than hyperlipidemia, were the third most common.
• Most of the post-COVID conditions that were evaluated were associated more with females than males. In the case of 12 conditions, however, males more commonly had the condition diagnosed than females. For example, of patients who had post-COVID cardiac inflammation, 52 percent were male and 48 percent female. By age, the largest share (25.4 percent) with this cardiac condition was found in a young cohort—individuals aged 19-29.
• Of the four mental health conditions evaluated as post-COVID conditions, anxiety was associated with the highest percentage of patients after COVID-19 in all age groups. Depression was second, adjustment disorders third and tic disorders fourth.

DJ-If there is a large spread in young unvaccinated age groups-not getting tested-they may infect younger family members-start a spread from there. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/united-states-2019-ncov/906307-pandemic-started-in-us-before-2020-we-just-didn-t-know-it?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/united-states-2019-ncov/906307-pandemic-started-in-us-before-2020-we-just-didn-t-know-it?view=stream latest; In a recently published NIH report, findings of 24,000 stored blood samples taken in early 2020 suggest that the virus was spreading in Dec 2019 in the United States. (Sam[les were taken in Illinois, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin)

In this study, the first positive samples came from participants in Illinois and Massachusetts on Jan. 7 and 8, 2020, respectively, suggesting that the virus was present in those states in late December.
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news...-infections-us

In the Red Cross study (see previous post), COVID-19 may have been present in California, Oregon, and Washington as early as Dec. 13-16, 2019, and in Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin as early as Dec. 30, 2019 - Jan. 17, 2020.

To date, the first deaths that have been published occurred in the states of Kansas, North Carolina and New Jersey during the week of Jan 5-11, 2020 (see previous post) and in the following week (Jan 12-18, 2020) deaths were in California, Oklahoma and Ohio.

This information would tend to indicate that the virus was circulating nationwide in December 2019 and introduced even before that in the United States.

DJ-It would be welcome if lots of countries would open up on all kind of sampling from 2019 to see if we can learn more on the spread. See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/917446-nih-study-offers-new-evidence-of-early-sars-cov-2-infections-in-u-s[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/917446-nih-study-offers-new-evidence-of-early-sars-cov-2-infections-in-u-s (among more)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/africa-all-other-diseases/916585-19-people-poisoned-from-eating-sick-camel-meat-suffering-from-unknown-disease-in-southern-somalia[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/africa-all-other-diseases/916585-19-people-poisoned-from-eating-sick-camel-meat-suffering-from-unknown-disease-in-southern-somalia DJ-Unclear what disease these camals have-MERS was camel-related but (I believe) camels mostly spread the virus-now they get sick and die...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917465-namibia-parliament-temporarily-suspended-as-several-members-test-positive-for-covid-19-6-south-african-tourists-died-june-15-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917465-namibia-parliament-temporarily-suspended-as-several-members-test-positive-for-covid-19-6-south-african-tourists-died-june-15-2021 DJ-No further info on what variant (proberbly no sequencing...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917463-china-covid-19-variant-delta-b-1-617-2-found-in-nanning-guangxi-province-june-12-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917463-china-covid-19-variant-delta-b-1-617-2-found-in-nanning-guangxi-province-june-12-2021 ;According to a CCTV news client report on June 12, on the 11th, the Micro-inspection Department of the Nanning Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Guangxi took less than two days to perform a high-throughput whole genome on a sample of the new crown of Indonesian immigrants sent by Nanning Customs for inspection and review. After sequencing, it was confirmed that it was infected with the new coronavirus delta mutant B.1.617.2 subtype. This is the first time that Nanning, Guangxi has detected an Indian mutant subtype of the new crown virus from a sample of immigrants. At the same time, it has once again sounded the alarm for the prevention and control of the epidemic in Guangxi. The battle for the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has not yet won the final victory. Can't tolerate the slightest slack.

DJ-Further spread in China of Delta-variant. Will further influence global economy.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917456-cidrap-ongoing-covid-surges-in-multiple-regions-keep-nations-on-edge[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917456-cidrap-ongoing-covid-surges-in-multiple-regions-keep-nations-on-edge ;

Cases in Africa are up for the fifth week a row, the World Health Organization (WHO) African regional office said today in its weekly outbreaks and health emergencies report. Overall, the region's cases increased 36.3% over the previous week.
South Africa reported more than half of last week's cases, and other hot spots include Zambia, Uganda, Namibia, and Kenya. Twenty countries reported rises in cases, with increases of 50% or more in 10 of them.

-

In Russia, the number of daily cases has risen to their highest levels since February, Reuters reported. Moscow, responsible for roughly half of new daily cases, recently imposed new restrictions, and some cities in Primorye region in the country's far east have added hospital beds, expecting to experience another wave of infections.

A Kremlin spokesperson said government officials are disappointed by low demand for the Sputnik V vaccine, which was introduced in December and made available to everyone in Moscow. City officials are planning to offer cars in prize drawings to boost vaccination levels.

Pakistani officials are also worried about low vaccine uptake and are taking a tough stance by blocking people's cell phone service in two provinces and suspending the pay of some government employees who have not been immunized, according to the New York Times.

In Southeast Asia, Indonesia has beefed up its distancing measures as the Delta (B1617.2) variant gains a foothold and hospital capacity in locations such as Jakarta come under stress, according to the Washington Post.

And in the Americas, health officials in Chile recently reimposed a lockdown in and around the capital city Santiago due to record COVID activity, according to Deutsche Welle. The country is experiencing a stubborn surge that has been under way since April, despite having Latin America's highest vaccination level. Officials said contributing factors might include lower effectiveness of the Sinovac vaccine against the Gamma (P1) variant or that people aren't adhering to restrictions.

More global headlines

• Indian officials are investigating reports that testing agencies forged as many as 100,000 test results at the Kumbh Mela event in April, a massive Hindu gathering that is thought to have contributed to the country's recent surge, according to the New York Times.
• Seven countries in the Americas have reported COVID-related mucormycosis (black fungus) cases, according to an epidemiologic alert from the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). It included a summary table of 16 patients, all of whom had underlying health conditions. Nine of them died. PAHO urged countries to increase their clinical suspicion for the fungal infection, especially in patients with diabetes, on corticosteroids, or on immunosuppressants.
• The global total today rose to 176,403,368 cases, and 3,814,946 people have died from their infections, according to the Johns Hopkins online dashboard.

DJ-Pandemic is far from over.

-[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0-90kvoQac[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0-90kvoQac Dr. John Campbell;

vaccination and ivermectin, info under the video. 

-Music-Status Quo-Rockin All Over The World [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw_sJifUYgM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw_sJifUYgM 

DJ,

-Yesterday in latest news-new variants-I could include TWO new variants-Lambda from Peru, and Delta+-the India variant spreading most in Europe with some new mutations...Both have to be more infectious and immuno-escape to show up. They both show up in area's where there is supposed to be lots of vaccine/natural immunity-wich the variant has to overcome...so they do...

Here in NL we are speeding up reopening-while some variants also speed up their spread...but in general cases still going down..."so what can go wrong"....UK may face more NPI, Lisbon-were 25% of Portugal population live-will go in lockdown...but that does not stop some other countries "saving the economy"....repeating mistakes with an even worse outcome....

New variants are moving towards becoming resistent-overcoming ANY form of immunity-able to reinfect people, even with vaccinations...

Testing is going down. Under 18 may not be in some variant statistics-"since they do not get severe symptoms"-in many countries vaccination is slowing down the spread-but is not enough to stop it...International airtravel is making matters worse...again.

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ are very far from perfect-sometimes maybe getting close to useless. At least part of the spread is in young age groups that do not get tested..."party people"...in the past also more orthodox religious groups did see (major) spread "under the radar"...a third group are "foreign workers" (with or without papers) living close together in bad housing doing high risk jobs...A limited fourth group is in those that deny there is a pandemic, "natural immunity" protecting us etc....

Some interesting countries to watch are the UK ; reporting over 11,000 new cases-19 deaths. At #9 in list of highest new cases-but expectations were the UK could be in the 20,000 new cases-40 deaths by now...so it is going more slow. Prof. Tim Spector is expecting this "small wave" to go on for a few weeks-to be over (for the UK) second part of July...In trends UK at +34%...#41.

Israel is reporting an increase of +19% #50 in highest % increase trends-with low numbers still; 98 last week-this week 117 cases being reported. Part may be in unvaccinated, part in the 5-10% "imperfect margin" if vaccines offer 90-95% protection...

Portugal is showing an increase of 41%...last week 4,401 cases-this week 6,196 (#37 in trends). Yesterday reporting 1.233 new cases-#43 in highest numbers-list.

Worldwide trend is -5%-slowly moving upwards to the + again. In real numbers Brazil still almost 75,000 new cases, India-a few other Latin American countries in top 5. Russia=#5, Indonesia#6, South Africa #7, US-UK-Iran make the last 3 in this top 10...

Of course you can go for a positive look; Sweden "reporting a decrease of -77%" in the trends list; last week 5,202 cases-this week "only" 1,191-but mainly because Sweden has not been reporting cases for some days...

Numbers on variants [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics are problematic-total of wiki Delta variant cases-still in 73 countries would be 36,828 per june 16...with;

The latest available data from the end of May indicates prevalence in the U.S., the Netherlands and Germany was in the 1 % to 10% range. Surveillance data from the U.S. and the Netherlands indicates the Delta variant is growing by about a factor of 2 every weeks with respect to the Alpha variant, so it is expected to become dominant in around July or August in these countries.^{[99][100][101][102]}

as maybe most relevant. [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/  does show 46,890 Delta-variant cases for the UK...proberbly also including the Delta+ variant but NOT the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Kappa_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Kappa_variant also from India...and also growing...

Wiki has also more on the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Lambda_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Lambda_variant but not yet updated (as far as I can see) on the Delta+ variant; [url]https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/delta-variant-of-covid-19-mutates-into-delta-plus-all-you-need-to-know/articleshow/83538387.cms[/url] or https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/delta-variant-of-covid-19-mutates-into-delta-plus-all-you-need-to-know/articleshow/83538387.cms has good info on that...(It would be welcome if press did work with Wikipedia or other international non-profit group for better communication on variants...)

DJ-Basicly-YES variants are increasing-a lot of them ! YES-it is very likely there will be SEVERAL !!!! new variants spreading in many area's-simply meaning the virus is dealing with growing natural/vaccine immunity-but NO-we do not have enough sequencing/testing to get a realistic view on that...Basicly we have lost sight on this pandemic...with much to limited and slow sequencing we are "driving in the dark and increasing speed" without any idea of where we are..."new leadership"...

In other news Reuters claiming we did get over the four million Covid deaths-first 2 million did take all of 2020, the next two million only took 5,5 months...with India, Mexico, US (+600,000 deaths), Brazil in highest numbers of deaths-as far as the reported numbers have any meaning...

-Flutrackers latest posts...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream latest ; For those interested, a summary of Ivermectin data can be found here, including a summary and links to the latest large Meta-Analysis

https://c19early.com - just click on the tab that says 'Ivermectin'. Other repurposed drugs / intervention data summaries can be found under other tabs for those interested.
DJ Discussion on low cost effective treatments-NOT bringing in trillions of profit for Big Pharma mafia share holders keeps going on...Ivermectin very likely to be effective at all stages-but Big Pharma may be in control of the "medical community" and they go for what "is good for shareholders not for patients"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916069-china-confirmed-community-spread-of-1-617-variant-possible-delta-guangzhou-guangdong-province-may-23-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916069-china-confirmed-community-spread-of-1-617-variant-possible-delta-guangzhou-guangdong-province-may-23-2021?view=stream latest; A 55-year-old man, Zhu Moumou, had visited the hospital twice, but failed to truthfully report and inform the doctor of his travel history within the past 14 days, concealing the fact that he had contact with confirmed cases and the fact that he had been to a high-risk area, and was later diagnosed. The trajectory of its activities has involved hospitals, convenience stores and other public places, causing 167 close contacts and 225 sub-close contacts to be isolated for observation and home isolation.
　　The public security organs filed and investigated Zhu XX and detained him for criminal purposes. The judicial organs will prosecute the case in accordance with the law.
　　The suspect Zhu Moumou, male, 55 years old, runs a farm in Panyu District, Guangzhou City.

DJ-One person can introduce a virus-start an outbreak...It is good some people are following Chinese news outlets...at least part of the "problem" in the early stages of the pandemic was western media (and intel ?) expecting China to translate all news in English...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917556-concerns-grow-over-risk-of-rare-heart-condition-from-covid-19-vaccine-in-young-men[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917556-concerns-grow-over-risk-of-rare-heart-condition-from-covid-19-vaccine-in-young-men ;Canadian health authorities say they are monitoring reports of heart inflammation following mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, which are produced by Pfizer and Moderna, after U.S. officials reported a higher-than-expected number of cases in those who had received second doses.

Health Canada said a small number of these cases have been reported in Canada, but it is not yet known whether there is any link between them and mRNA vaccines. It added that it encouraged people to get immunized with any of the authorized and available vaccines.

... On Thursday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) presented data that showed heart conditions were rare. But they were more frequent than the two agencies would normally expect among individuals aged 16 to 24. The cases were more common among males, especially after a second dose.

DJ What I do get is that often the inflamation is not a major risk-but still unwelcome...and if there are other problems it can be a risk. (And I am not a doctor/expert-just repeating what I did read/understand...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917554-children-as-young-as-13-reveal-struggles-with-long-covid-%E2%80%98i-used-to-be-an-active-child-now-it-will-drain-me%E2%80%99[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917554-children-as-young-as-13-reveal-struggles-with-long-covid-%E2%80%98i-used-to-be-an-active-child-now-it-will-drain-me%E2%80%99 ; Children as young as 13 have revealed their struggles with Long Covid as they called for better treatment to manage the debilitating condition.

At least one million people have Long Covid in the UK, according to the Office of National Statistics.

And around 7.4 per cent of those cases are among children aged 2-11, with another 8.2 per cent aged from 12 to 16.

DJ-Long Covid is a growing problem. But it is-very likely-not a new problem. Post viral infections chronic health issues often were not taken serious enough...seen as "mental problems"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/917552-state-health-officials-track-fast-spreading-delta-variant-of-covid-19-in-wisconsin[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/917552-state-health-officials-track-fast-spreading-delta-variant-of-covid-19-in-wisconsin ; State health officials have identified nearly three dozen cases of a new, fast-spreading variant of COVID-19 in Wisconsin that was first detected in India last year.

The Wisconsin Department of Health Services is tracking the Delta variant, which has been found in 35 positive coronavirus tests since April, according to state data. The Delta variant only constitutes about 6% of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. but could eventually overtake the Alpha variant as the dominant virus in the U.S. and in Wisconsin.

DJ I think some newer variants may even escape some of the testing...we may "go blind" on variants...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917549-cidrap-africa-s-covid-19-surge-picks-up-speed[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917549-cidrap-africa-s-covid-19-surge-picks-up-speed ; Africa is in the middle of a full-blown third surge of COVID-19, with cases already near the peak of its first wave, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) African regional office warned today, as she pressed countries on the continent to step up their public health measures.
In other developments — and with much of the world struggling with scarce vaccine supplies — Germany-based CureVac yesterday reported disappointing efficacy findings for its mRNA COVID vaccine.

Variants only one factor fueling surge

At a briefing today, Matshidiso Moeti, MBBS, who leads the WHO's African regional office, said cases rose last week by 20% in 22 African countries, with the Democratic Republic of Congo, Namibia, and Uganda reporting their highest weekly cases since the pandemic began. In urging countries to scale up their case finding, testing, treatment, and contact tracing, she said, "The sobering trajectory of surging cases should rouse everyone into urgent action. We’ve seen in India and elsewhere just how quickly COVID-19 can rebound and overwhelm health systems."
Factors fueling the outbreak are varied and involve the lack of adherence to public health measures, the onset of cooler weather in southern Africa, and the circulation of more transmissible variants.
Moeti said the Delta (B1617.2) variant has been found in 14 African countries, and the Alpha (B117) and Beta (B1351) variants have been detected in 25 nations.
Though Africa is struggling with scarce vaccine supplies, she said vaccine rollout is picking up speed, with 5 million doses delivered over the past 5 days. However, Moeti added that some countries are struggling to administer the doses they have—23 have given only half of the doses they've received so far, including 4 that are experiencing resurgence.

DJ-Basic testing is already a major problem in most of Africa. Southern Africa is moving towards fall/winter-will also make matters worse...But I (DJ) expect the SA variant may be having some extra mutations-a SA+ variant ? Kinshasa variant by now ? With hardly any sequencing we simply have no idea...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917547-cidrap-youth-delta-variant-behind-uk-covid-surge[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917547-cidrap-youth-delta-variant-behind-uk-covid-surge ;

Two new studies look at the Delta variant (B1617) behind the UK COVID-19 surge, with the first noting that young people are helping drive the exponential growth of COVID-19 cases in England. The second study describes reduced COVID-19 vaccine and antibody efficacy against the more transmissible variant.

Youth test positivity rate five times higher than seniors'

The first study, published today on the Imperial College London preprint server, involved testing a random sample of people from across England for COVID-19 as part of the ongoing Real-Time Assessment of Community Transmission (React 1) study.
The researchers showed that COVID-19 infections in England surged from May 20 to Jun 7, with a doubling time of 11 days and an estimated R (reproductive) number of 1.44. Doubling time is the number of days before coronavirus cases, hospitalizations, or deaths doubled, and R indicates how many people, on average, catch the virus from an infected person.
In total, 135 of 108,911 swabs tested positive for COVID-19, for a weighted prevalence of 0.15%, up from 0.10% of swabs collected from Apr 15 to May 3. Northwest England had the highest prevalence (0.26%), while the country's southwest region had the lowest (0.05%). Residents of socioeconomically disadvantaged areas were at nearly double the risk of testing positive, compared with those in less-deprived areas.
Young people are behind the surge, with a 5-fold higher rate of COVID-19 test positivity among children 5 to 12 years (0.35% prevalence) and adults 18 to 24 (0.36% prevalence) than in those 65 or older. People younger than 50 were 2.5 times more likely to be infected than older people (prevalence, 0.20% vs 0.08%), although the researchers noted that infections seem to be growing at a comparable rate in both age-groups.
Delta responsible for 90% of COVID cases

In early February, the link between COVID-19 infection rates and hospitalizations started to lessen, apparently due to vaccinations, only to reemerge in late April. When the researchers stratified data by age, however, they found that those 65 and older still had a lower association between infections and hospital admissions.
"We can take a lot of comfort in the fact that there does appear to be very good protection in the older age groups, where virtually everyone has been doubly vaccinated," senior study author Paul Elliott, MBBS, PhD, director of the React program, said in a BMJ press release today.

-

Vaccines less able to neutralize Delta

In the second study, published yesterday in Cell, a team led by University of Oxford researchers evaluated whether vaccines, monoclonal antibodies, or antibodies derived from COVID-19 survivors could neutralize the Delta variant's B1617.1 and B1617.2 sublineages.
They exposed the Delta variants to neutralizing antibodies from vaccinated participants, convalescent sera from UK COVID-19 patients from early in the pandemic, and monoclonal antibodies. They also looked at the affinity of the variants' receptor-binding domains for angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE-2), which allows the virus to enter human cells.
The researchers found substantial reductions in the ability of the AstraZeneca/Oxford and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines to inactivate the Delta variant, although the viruses weren't broadly able to escape neutralization.
The ability of the Pfizer vaccine to neutralize the Delta variant dropped 1.34-fold between 4 and 10 weeks after the first dose, at which time the ability was nearly lost. "Recently in the UK some reduction in Pfizer-BioNTech effectiveness has been detected at 10 weeks, presumably as a result of waning immunity, leading to the recommendation that the second vaccine dose interval should be reduced from 12 to 8 weeks in those over age 50," the authors said.
The researchers noted previous studies that found lower vaccine effectiveness against mild to moderate COVID-19 in countries in which Beta was dominant, as well as against the Alpha (B117 variant first seen in England, although protection against severe illness was maintained.

-

Continued emergence of new variants

The authors said that the true number of SARS-CoV-2 variants probably has been underestimated and that more variants of concern will continue to emerge.
"Early in the pandemic SARS-CoV-2 was under selective pressure to adapt to its new host, to evade the innate immune system, to efficiently bind to and infect target cells and to transmit to the next host," they wrote. "As the population develops immunity, by either natural infection or vaccination, pressure is mounting to select mutations that allow the virus to more effectively find an infectible host through increased transmissibility, or to evade the acquired immune response and cause reinfection."
The authors called for more epidemiological data on how often breakthrough infections occur after escape mutations and whether they will cause severe disease and hospitalization. "If this escape from the neutralising capacity of vaccines continues with evolution of new variants in vaccinated populations, and leads to a substantial reduction in effectiveness against hospitalisation, there will be a significant impact on attempts to alter the course of the pandemic through immunisation and an urgent need to revise immunogens," they concluded.

DJ-STOP THE SPREAD !!!!!!! New variants get more and more resistent ! With an R0 in the UK of over 1,4 why the UK is not in lockdown ? Restarting international travel-with most people wanting to believe the pandemic is over-finding ways to break all rules-terrible communications/understanding of the crisis by "politics" we are increasing spead in a dead end street in the dark...Related; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917536-britain-reported-its-biggest-daily-rise-in-new-cases-of-covid-19-since-feb-19-on-thursday-according-to-government-figures-which-showed-11-007-new-infections-up-from-9-055-the-day-before-june-17-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917536-britain-reported-its-biggest-daily-rise-in-new-cases-of-covid-19-since-feb-19-on-thursday-according-to-government-figures-which-showed-11-007-new-infections-up-from-9-055-the-day-before-june-17-2021 ; Britain reported its biggest daily rise in new cases of COVID-19 since Feb. 19 on Thursday, according to government figures which showed 11,007 new infections, up from 9,055 the day before.

The number of new deaths within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test doubled to 19 from nine reported on Wednesday, the highest daily total since May 11 and one which takes total fatalities on this measure to 127,945.

Britain has suffered Europe's highest official death toll from the disease, although deaths on a per capita basis are higher in Italy and much of eastern Europe.

DJ-Mistakes repeated; NOT stopping international (air)travel, NOT using NPI/lockdown, NOT realizing the risks...utter, utter, utter stupidity ! Criminal ignorance...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/917540-eurosurv-increased-transmissibility-and-global-spread-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-as-at-june-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/917540-eurosurv-increased-transmissibility-and-global-spread-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-as-at-june-2021 ; We present a global analysis of the spread of recently emerged SARS-CoV-2 variants and estimate changes in effective reproduction numbers at country-specific level using sequence data from GISAID. Nearly all investigated countries demonstrated rapid replacement of previously circulating lineages by the World Health Organization-designated variants of concern, with estimated transmissibility increases of 29% (95% CI: 24–33), 25% (95% CI: 20–30), 38% (95% CI: 29–48) and 97% (95% CI: 76–117), respectively, for B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1 and B.1.617.2.

full article

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/con...#html_fulltext

DJ-I think experts are doing their extreme best to try to keep an eye on the explosion of variants-but may simply not have the tools. Some problems; 1-Limited/no testing in many poor countries, 2-Decrease of testing in richer countries-some age groups simply missing in the data..3-Testing itself may be missing some variants...4-Sequencing is way to limited and slow to see developments in time to (re)act...5-Developments on variants may be increasing in speed and diversity...(In a country some mutations/variants may show up in one region-other mutations/variants in other regions-getting a view on events is getting "very hard/impossible"...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917534-covid-19-cases-surge-in-africa-near-first-wave-peak[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917534-covid-19-cases-surge-in-africa-near-first-wave-peak ; Brazzaville, 17 June 2021 – COVID-19 cases in Africa are surging by over 20% week-on-week as the continent's third wave gains pace and nears the first wave peak of more than 120 000 weekly cases recorded in July 2020, new data from the World Health Organization (WHO) shows.

COVID-19 cases rose to over 116 500 in the week ending on 13 June, up from the previous week’s nearly 91 000 cases, following one month of progressively rising case numbers that pushed the continent over the 5 million case mark. In 22 African countries—nearly 40% of Africa’s 54 nations—cases rose by over 20% in the week ending on 13 June. During the same week, deaths rose by nearly 15% to over 2200 in 36 countries.

New cases recorded weekly in Africa have now exceeded half of the second wave peak of more than 224 000 weekly cases in early January 2021. The Democratic Republic of the Congo, Namibia and Uganda have reported their highest number of new weekly cases since the pandemic began.

“Africa is in the midst of a full blown third wave. The sobering trajectory of surging cases should rouse everyone into urgent action. We’ve seen in India and elsewhere just how quickly COVID-19 can rebound and overwhelm health systems. So public health measures must be scaled up fast to find, test, isolate and care for patients and to quickly trace their contacts,” said Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Regional Director for Africa.

Along with other factors, a lack of adherence to transmission prevention measures has fuelled the new surge that coincides with colder seasonal weather in southern Africa and as more contagious variants spread. The Delta variant has been reported in 14 African countries and the Alpha and Beta variants have been found in over 25 African countries...

DJ-Without even a basic administration of births/deaths in many African countries, very likely 10% of cases detected via testing would be "very good"...the simple reality is we do not know how this pandemic is going in Africa-simply only have the "tip of the tip of the mountain" and that is not looking good ! We know what the pandemic looked like in Brazil, India-in Africa it will be very much worse...mega cities-no basic healthcare, lots of other diseases...Putting out statistics would be "a show" as if someone knew what is happening...

DJ-By going for mass vaccinations in rich countries we did buy ourselves the illusion we have this pandemic under control. In most of the world new variants are exploding-"we are not safe untill they are safe" ! A PANdemic is a GLOBAL event !!!

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJpyvAv-oFQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJpyvAv-oFQ ;

USA, Natural immunity key Nationwide Blood Donor Seroprevalence Survey Data, gathered from blood donors Estimates of population, 16 and older, have developed antibodies Vaccination or infection? March 21st 2021 Seroprevalence, 49.1%  

US population, 330 million Total infections, 162,000,000 Infection fatality rate, 0.4% (0.33985) Infection fatality rate as of 21st March Now, herd immunity Adults with at least one vaccine dose, 64.7%  

DJ-Dr.J.C is an expert-I am certainly NOT ! But I do think-again-Dr.J.C. is overoptimistic again. He till recently did not believe the India-variants (by now several)  would become a UK problem...I think he is overoptimistic on how much vaccines can do-they can do a lot but in combination with NPI-travelrestrictions...otherwise you keep importing problems/variants...

"Experts" are paid "to know things" even if they have lost sight-it may be hard to admit they "do not know" enough to say something usefull in their field of expertise...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8IESUS8fk8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8IESUS8fk8 ZOE/Prof Tim Spector-what makes the Delta-variant so infectious ? In our 5th episode of COVID Question Time, Professor Tim Spector of the ZOE COVID Study and King's College London answers your burning questions on the Delta (formerly Indian) variant. 

DJ-By now the India-variant have split up in four variants....1=Kappa, .2=Delta, there is a Delta+ and then .3 variant. Short summary of the video; UK seeing more cases due to; 1-More travel with India, Pakistan (DJ-and not stopping that in time) 2-Better sequencing-se early detection (DJ-A.o. Portugal now also getting in crisis). Is Delta more infectious ? Yes; 1-Could be upper airways seeing more infection-so more viral spread and/or variant more sticky=low number of virusparticles may already cause infection. 

Vaccines offer over 90% protection against symptoms-after fully getting vaccinated. More serious cases in those who did not get vaccinated. Other risk of course is long-Covid-so you still do not want to get infected...DJ-Prof T.S. optimistic this wave will be limited due to vaccinations and increase of (local) NPI...

-Music; Road To Nowhere-Talking Heads [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQiOA7euaYA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQiOA7euaYA  1985

EdwinSm, I am losing trust in the statistics...."rich countries" see a decrease in people dying from Covid. I am willing to believe that. Proberbly several reasons for the decrease; 

1-More people vaccinated and vaccines offer protection against severe disease. 

2-Summer effect in EU/US. 

3-Hospitals now have less people to take care for-so more room at ICU/care. 

4-Older/vulnarable people proberbly more protecting themselves. 

However in "poor countries" it is very likely a lot of/most deaths are simply not reported...testing is a problem often. Sometimes there is not even a basic administration by government on births and deaths...

DJ,

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/18/netherlands-drop-covid-restrictions-june-26-big-step-says-rutte[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/18/netherlands-drop-covid-restrictions-june-26-big-step-says-rutte NL is "opening up again"..."there is room in the hospitals/ICU's for new patients"....

Some polls indicate around 25% of the Dutch public is supporting this reopening. Around 1/3 would rather see more restrictions the we already had...(DJ-I can imagine young people getting infected in southern Europe-returning with-often-the Delta variant is not very welcome...).

The Dutch government is taking this decission backed by-proberbly-a minority of the "experts". Experts themselves seem to be very divided. DJ-I do not know the exact number but proberbly less then 50% of the Dutch people (over 13,5 million vaccines used on a population of 17,5 million) is fully vaccinated. So the rest of the supposed protection has to come from 3 things;

1 Natural immunity

2 Summer weather

3 A lot of vulnarable still going for selfprotection. 

In these weeks hospital admissions are at 35/40 per day-one year ago that was 5 per day here in NL....

DJ-My feelings about this ?             .....

-The numbers-to at least try to get a glimpse on developments.

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Global trend-6%, so 6% decrease of tested/reported cases. But signs are VERY ALARMING from South Africa, Vietnam, Brazil, Russia to the UK increases-mostly due to new variants....those variants are an undercurrent in most western countries. Ignoring them-due to lack of sequencing-is making matters MUCH worse !

This is NOT a repeat of last summer (2020) because then we had hope for vaccines-almost ended the pandemic-did revive by opening to soon. Now we are opening with often limited vaccinations with very flexible variants increasing all over the world...The basis for "reopening" may now cause an explosion of variants that soon may get resistent. 

At the end of the year we may be in a much deeper crisis then we have been so far during this pandemic ! Why go for vaccinations if "the pandemic is over" ? The most social active groups may now even believe there is no longer a need for vaccinations. 

Young people going on holiday and catching the virus often even do not test....spread more dangerous variants in not fully vaccinated groups causing those mutations to survive-in the virus-that evade immunity (either vaccine or natural). We have seen this in Brazil-where "natural immunity" was supposed NOT to enable a new crisis but the P1 variant did not care about immunity...We did see it in many other places...

The UK at present HAS a high number of vaccinations but still the Delta variant is increasing...

DJ-Can this pandemic get worse then the Spanish Flu of 1918/19 ? YES ! That flu was ended by herd immunity-only had one variant of H1N1-virus. Covid19 may already have hundreds of variants...

Looking further back in history "the black death" 14th century but also the plague at the end of the western Roman Empire jump up. The Spanish Flu may have killed 2-5% of global population. The earlier pandemics often killed much higher numbers. Those that were not killed somehow were isolated...the virus did not get there...

A "modern pandemic" in a "worst case scenario" could kill us all !!! Certainly with high tech, climate change etc as a background. 

A lot of politicians think infectious diseases are something of the past. They were wrong before this pandemic-with growing anti-biotics resistence. They are even more wrong now. Coronavirusses in animals often only are controlled by killing all the animals in an infected region...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ So 400,000 new cases per day, 8,523 new deaths is "an acceptable basis for reopening"? Of course not ! Worldwide the-reported-numbers are much to high ! 

The UK yesterday-again-reported over 10,000+ new cases...we will know within a few months how that works out in hospital cases, deaths...a lot of infections/variants are being missed because people do not get tested...Brazil reporting close to a 100,000 new cases...2,449 deaths...This pandemic is not over...it may still be in the early phase...

-Flutrackers latest,

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/health-humanitarian-issues/917641-the-rise-of-america%E2%80%99s-new-underclass-the-naturally-immune-but-unvaccinated[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/health-humanitarian-issues/917641-the-rise-of-america%E2%80%99s-new-underclass-the-naturally-immune-but-unvaccinated ; In fact two sizable studies, one from Israel and one from the Cleveland Clinic, have already demonstrated that the naturally immune are protected from re-infection at nearly the same rate as, if not better than, vaccinated persons.

Of course, even without these studies, most reasonable clinicians and immunologists could easily predict that natural COVID-19 immunity is highly likely to be equivalent to, if not more robust than, vaccine immunity. After all, SARS-CoV-2 is actually a simple Coronavirus — it is no HIV, Herpes Virus or HPV!

But despite the serological facts, the science, and now the epidemiological evidence, the Biden administration’s CDC and the FDA are irrationally continuing to recommend a dangerous and indiscriminate vaccination policy for EVERY American — irrespective of prior infections or the actual presence of antibody immunity.

Even worse, the FDA has gone as far as to declare the gold-standard laboratory blood test for assessment of immunity to viruses is uninformative in the case of COVID-19...

DJ-There is discussion between experts-one also could claim experts disagree on almost everything related to this pandemic...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/917640-maine-says-8-vaccinated-residents-died-with-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/917640-maine-says-8-vaccinated-residents-died-with-covid-19 ; A spokesperson from Maine’s CDC explained that the eight people’s deaths "met the criteria to be COVID-19 related after fully vaccinated," but noted that these individuals "died with COVID-19, not ‘of COVID-19.’"..

DJ-So what is the news then ? So far vaccination seems to offer "very good" (90%+) protection. At least most vaccines-against most variants...It would be welcome if there was worldwide knowledge to find out what vaccine does best against what variant in what person and in what background. The picture of vaccine-protection is different in a country with 80% of its population fully vaccinated then in a country where only 20% is fully vaccinated...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/health-humanitarian-issues/917639-inside-the-growing-movement-to-make-ecocide-an-international-crime[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/health-humanitarian-issues/917639-inside-the-growing-movement-to-make-ecocide-an-international-crime ; Lawyers will take a major step this month toward putting environmental destruction on the same level as war crimes and genocide.
Over roughly a decade starting in the early 1960s, the United States military sprayed an estimated 19 million gallons of herbicides, including the notorious Agent Orange, in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. The resulting devastation to the environment was so severe that scientists and activists began to use a new word to describe it: ecocide.

More recently the term has gained popularity as a way to describe the most egregious cases of environmental destruction. And now a movement to establish ecocide as an official international crime is also building global momentum. Already the European Parliament and political leaders in numerous countries, including France, Belgium, Finland, Spain and Canada, have expressed varying levels of support for the idea...

DJ-Here in NL Friends of the Earth NL did win a courtcase against "Royal (25%=) Dutch Shell" (Yes it is very likely the Dutch royal family has over 25% of Shell ownership...) ... But neo-liberal, conservative parties-often funded a.o. by fossil fuel companies do everything they can to keep us driving cars, flying planes as "freedom"...This pandemic has everything to do with worsening climate crisis...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917633-uk-10-476-new-covid-19-cases-today-99-are-delta-variant-june-18-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917633-uk-10-476-new-covid-19-cases-today-99-are-delta-variant-june-18-2021 ; The total number of cases of the Covid Delta variant in the UK has risen to 75,953 to date, data has revealed, with the variant accounting for 99% of Covid cases.

On Friday 10,476 Covid cases and 11 deaths within 28 days of a positive test were reported in the UK – the former a slight decline compared with the 11,007 new cases reported the day before.

According to the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), the latest R number for England is between 1.2 and 1.4, with the number of new Covid infections growing by 3% to 6% a day – in the north-west the growth is even higher at 5% to 8% a day. The group cautions that lags in data mean the figures represent the spread of Covid about two to three weeks ago.

DJ-As I did write yesterday-we are increasing speed in a dead end street with zero vision...Basicly we do not have up to date info on main known variants...hardly any capacity to look for new variants...China also reporting new cases...I did not put another link...It would be welcome if China could communicate better...Also not put a link on 21% of US citizens worried about Covid, Russian cases exploding...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917617-china%E2%80%99s-sinovac-vaccine-under-scrutiny-as-covid-soars-in-highly-vaccinated-countries[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917617-china%E2%80%99s-sinovac-vaccine-under-scrutiny-as-covid-soars-in-highly-vaccinated-countries ; Concerns over the effectiveness of China’s Sinovac vaccine continue to grow—Indonesia reported hundreds of outbreaks among medical professionals who took the vaccine and hard-hit Costa Rica declined to use it for fear it won’t work—the latest stumbling block for China’s global vaccination drive as heavily vaccinated countries deploying its two flagship vaccines face some of the world’s worst outbreaks.

-

Uruguay, in the first release of real world data on Sinovac’s efficacy Tuesday, said the vaccine was over 90% effective at preventing ICU admissions and deaths, as well as 61% effective at preventing infections. Despite having vaccinated more people than almost any other country (it has given over 60% of its population at least one shot, higher than the U.S.), Uruguay is dealing with one of the highest Covid-19 death rates in the world. The Chinese pharmaceutical companies rarely address public concerns over efficacy and Chinese officials say questions over its vaccines are an example of anti-China bias and selective reporting. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said a Wall Street Journal article questioning the role of the vaccines in the highly vaccinated Seychelles outbreak “exposes their unhealthy mind-set of denigrating China at every turn.” ...

DJ-Some vaccines do a better job then others...vaccines do not have a passport/nationality...Chile did go for lots of Chinese vaccines still getting lots of cases means that the vaccine has a problem most likely with the P1 variant...

If China does not want to be blamed for exporting bad vaccines it should export better vaccines ! A lot of countries are NOT anti-China ! By reacting in the wrong way China may ask for anti-China sentiments-that do not help anyone...China may be the only country left that is able to produce the billions of vaccines needed for global demand ! (Even EU/UK/US combined may not do better...).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/914732-covid-19-variant-1-617-series-including-1-617-2-delta-1-617-1-kappa-and-ay-1-mutation?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/914732-covid-19-variant-1-617-series-including-1-617-2-delta-1-617-1-kappa-and-ay-1-mutation?view=stream latest activities;

A coronavirus variant first identified in India is "like Covid on steroids," Andy Slavitt, former White House senior adviser for Covid-19 response, said Wednesday.

"(The Delta variant) is a more virulent strain," Slavitt told CNN. "This is like Covid on steroids. You can be around people for less time and still get exposed."
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has labeled the Delta variant a "variant of concern," a designation given to strains of a virus that scientists believe are more transmissible or can cause more severe disease. The CDC says the variant accounts for about 10% of coronavirus cases in the United States.

-

One important point to consider regarding K417N is evidence suggesting resistance to mAbs Casirivimab and Imdevimab. The mAb cocktail incidentally has received an EUA from
@CDSCO_INDIA_INF
in India. The variant freq for K417N is not much in India at this point in time

-

AY.1 — The new Covid variant on world radar stems from Delta variant, linked to immune escape

The first sample of AY.1 was isolated in March from Europe. In India, the variant was first found in April. So far, 156 samples have been sequenced around the world.

MOHANA BASU 15 June, 2021 8:18 am IST

New Delhi: The Delta variant (B.1.617.2) of the novel coronavirus is continuing to evolve, with a new variant — AY.1 — now emerging simultaneously in several countries, including India.

Scientists from the CSIR Institute of Genomics & Integrative Biology (IGIB) have noted that the new variant — B.1.617.2.1, which has been designated AY.1 for simplicity — is associated with immune escape properties, which render a pathogen partially or fully resistant to the body’s immune response, vaccines and antibody therapies.

So far, 156 samples of the variant have been sequenced around the world, with the first sample isolated in March this year from Europe. In India, the variant was first found in April. So far, eight samples have been isolated from India, according to data uploaded on GISAID, an open-access repository of SARS-CoV-2 sequenced from across the world.

DJ AY.1 =Delta+ variant proberbly groing high speed-even faster then the old Delta-variant...(hardly any sequencing...so the statistics are "old" -2 weeks...Delta variant itself was spreading 2,2 times faster then the "old variant" from early 2020...Delta+ may be even spreading faster...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917547-cidrap-youth-delta-variant-behind-uk-covid-surge[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917547-cidrap-youth-delta-variant-behind-uk-covid-surge ; JOY! Just what you need in a pandemic - a large movement of shouting singing people.

DJ Are people crazy ? Is asking the question not an answer in itself ? 

-Dr. John Campbell-Friday update [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ef33SyzKJy0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ef33SyzKJy0 Dr.J.C. feeling of deja vu-we have been here before-on the Delta variant cases going up in the UK. Vaccines will make a difference (he expects) in hospital cases deaths...

Public Health England  

Delta up by 33,630 since last week, now 75,953 99% of sequenced and genotyped cases across the country Increased risk of hospitalisation with Delta compared to Alpha  

As of 14 June 806 hospitalised with the Delta variant Up 423 since last week Of these, 527 were unvaccinated 84 of the 806 had received both doses Majority of Delta cases were confirmed less than 28 days ago  

Dr Jenny Harries, Chief Executive, UK Health Security Agency Cases are rising rapidly across the country and the Delta variant is now dominant. primarily in younger age groups, a large proportion of which were unvaccinated Please make sure that you come forward to receive both doses of the vaccine as soon as you are eligible. Don’t drop your guard – practise ‘hands, face, space, fresh air’ at all times. 

Change in presentation Cold like features Symptoms now (since May) Headache Sore throat Runny nose Fever Cough No loss of smell 

US, past week Cases, down 23.7% Deaths, down 31% Hospitalizations, down 8.8% Positivity rate, 1.9%  

Israel Seven-day incidence, 1.3 cases per 100,000 people BioNTech-Pfizer and some Moderna Sending 1.4 million doses to West Bank, PA  

Chile Most doses, Sinovac, inactivated virus vaccine Brazilian gamma variant, mostly Twice as infectious as the original virus Santiago ICUs at capacity Pandemic fatigue False sense of security  

Chinese vaccine to Malaysia 500,000 doses of Sinovac BioTech  

Chinese vaccine to Brazil Brazil seeking to diversify supply 60 million doses of CanSino Second half of 2021 $17 per dose   

Russia Cases, + 13,397 = 5,220,168 (Moscow, cases, + 5782) Deaths, + 396 = 127,576 Federal statistics agency, deaths = 270,000 Moscow Mayor, Sergey Sobyanin, Covid situation 'dramatic' 12,000 people currently hospitalised in Moscow 

Kim Jong Un Cases, 0 Brace for extended Covid restrictions Warns of food shortages  

DJ-As far as I follow it variants-lots of them-seem to be increasing worldwide...reopening, mixing, international travel, limited vaccinations are the perfect mix for a far worse outcome...(But blame China for the virus-that helps...NOT ! In my opinion it is not yet clear where this pandemic started and how. China had a major outbreak end of 2019-but the virus was detected in 2019 samples in Europe and US as well-main reason why it has not been detected in many other countries is because there were no samples from 2019 to test...) 

Music-at least that could be still okay-[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFbA9wxD67o[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFbA9wxD67o Soul-1975 Stylistics-I Can't Give you Anythingh But My Love...Love it !

Your last post relates to one of my previous ones, in that the virus will mutate because it has to, in order to survive. Looking at it from the virus's point of view (so to speak), it is now a hunted animal. In order to survive, it must disguise itself, in order to avoid detection, and therefore the vaccine, or any other treatment, so that it can carry out it's prime directive......Survive and procreate. Whether this particular coronavirus can maintain it's "avoidance" is up for debate, but, and it is a really big BUT, if it can, then we, as a race, are in serious trouble, as this virus will continue to mutate, at an ever increasing rate, to the point of an Extinction Level Event.

But, and, this is just as big a BUT, at this moment in time, it could go the other way, and we beat the damn thing. With Governments and Civil Servants in charge, however, I have serious doubts that control of this virus will ever be achieved. 

We  The People are, after all.......EXPENDABLE. 7.5 Billion people, are basically nothing more than a drain on the public purse.... Even though we are the ones that pay for the damn purse.

I need a drink, or maybe, more than one.

Sorry, but I do not seem to see a positive outcome anymore.......I hope I am proven wrong.

-KiwiMum-You are correct that a lot of deaths were in care centers etc. the most vulnarables. Yet with the aging population there soon will be new vulnarables-first on the line-when vaccines start to get less effective. 

Also in long-covid, other younger people with health issues new variants may hit hard. The reduction in deaths-just like the time we did win by mass vaccinations-is very likely very limited. Half a year ? A year at best ? 

-Techno put a great post/article from (US) Foreign Affairs. "Get used to it"-Trying to balance "good news" on "how the west beat the virus" some politicians/press like to claim/show...It is far from over...

Allthough it is not fully clear how much risk there is of Covid in non-human hosts-it is very likely there is a serious (and maybe even growing) risk (a.o. in mice, rats ???).

Basicly many countries-indeed-are still in a sort of denial...Nationalism is hindering global efforts needed. One growing concern is how good vaccines protect...and though vaccines may not have a nationality-producers do. It is not anti China to ask how high level of Chinese vaccins mix with high numbers of new cases in a.o. Chile...It would be welcome if a "neutral organization" (the WHO ?) could be leading the global effort needed-not any country...

-Morpheuskrs-I join you with "needing a drink" (I take another coffee...). We describe the same story in different words...I would love to believe Covid19 still could develop to a more common cold-much milder dominant variant...But wishfull thinking has stopped needed action already way to much...

-Some numbers. Global population [url]https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ is at present 7,9 billion. Peru has over 0,5% of its population killed in this pandemic-so far. On a global scale 0,5%=close to 40 million...Even if you would go for 0,2% as a more realistic number that would bring it close to 16 million lives lost-so far. 

The Spanish Flu may have killed 10 times as many in %-2 to 5% of the global 1918 population. Looking at history the Spanish Flu was a "mild pandemic" . Plagues-14 th century and at the end/ending the Western Roman Empire may have killed over 30% of the population...

Climate collapse is the main driver behind the present increase of pandemics. "We" keep failing here-INCREASING global warming more after the Paris climate agreement then decreasing it...This present pandemic could be one of the first major events making humans part of the sixth mass extinction...We are NOT above nature...!

Stay safe ! (Maybe do another update later on-add some music then...)

ViQueen24 wrote: Humans keep forgetting that we are part of the web of connectivity on this planet.  We like to think we are in charge.  We are not, and tiny microbes continue to make fools of us.  And we do not help ourselves with our stubborn refusals to set politics, etc. aside and take care of business.

Yep yep and yep....

Absolutely love this..............

DJ

-A look at the numbers to see where we are going [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table summer on the northern half of the globe could explain cases going down 10%, winter in the south would be +10%...Global decrease=-5%...

Lots of "southern countries" report increases. Zimbabwe +152% (last week 839, this week 2,118...with limited testing relevant numbers), South Africa +51%, Indonesia +50%, Australia +38%....last week 68, this week 94 cases...Seasons will be a factor...but

UK +31%, last week 52,077 this week 68,499 new cases, Portugal +54% last week 5,038-this week 7,734 new cases show some countries in Europe NOT seeing enough season effects (yet)...More alarming even is Israel with +186%-still in the low numbers, last week 105 cases, this week 300...Around 65% of population fully vaccinated-and a certain level of natural immunity on a population of just over 9 million people. 

Russia +29% last week 86,542 new cases-this week 111,796 most of them in and around Moscow-low level of vaccinations...Norway +4% last week 1,211 this week 1,268 new cases on a population of almost 5,5 million. Ireland +1% -2,235 cases last week, 2,260 cases this week...89 countries reporting increases (and 4 countries at +0% )...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  february 15 did see just over 268,000 reported global cases-yesterdays 279,000+ cases is-still-above that number. The number of people dying from Covid did drop below february 14 7,254 and is also under the reported march 7 number of 6,099 with 6,056-so in number of deaths we may be getting near the end of summer numbers of 2020...October last year did see numbers between 5,000 and 6,000 per day...

Other relevant numbers is on the under current of variants...and I think those statistics have become problematic. In most countries by now the Delta variant is becoming widespread-UK 99%, Portugal over 60%...a problem in China-still reporting low and decreasing numbers (-17% with 184 cases last week, 153 this week). 

Also in a lot of countries the level of testing is a major problem. Reported increases or decreases may reflect more or less testing. Brazil (+10%), South Africa (+51%)  have been in crisis for months by now...In many western countries most of the people "love to believe" the pandemic is over...so no reason for testing-will mean cases being detected going down even further...people not going for vaccinations.."the pandemic is over"...

[url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ reporting close to 50,000 Delta variant cases in the UK, over 3,000 in the US...but sequencing is a major problem. 

DJ-We are driving high speed on an unknown road with the lights out-in the dark...it could work out fine..but it is not a wise thing to do. 

Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916069-china-confirmed-community-spread-of-1-617-variant-possible-delta-guangzhou-shenzhen-airport-worker-dongguan-city-guangdong-province-may-23-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916069-china-confirmed-community-spread-of-1-617-variant-possible-delta-guangzhou-shenzhen-airport-worker-dongguan-city-guangdong-province-may-23-2021?view=stream ; Two confirmed cases in Liangjing Town, Huiyang District, Huizhou are reported to be false news! Just now, Huiyang District, Huizhou City, refuted the rumors. According to reports, a few days ago, news about two confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in Liangjing Town, Huiyang District circulated on the Internet, which was confirmed by the Huiyang District Health Bureau to be false information.

DJ-Unclear reporting does not help ! Most likely (air)ports reopening in this part of China will say more on how the Delta-variant is going there. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/917780-the-books-are-already-burning[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/917780-the-books-are-already-burning ; ."Fear of ostracism is rational. But we are now living in a world in which evolutionary biologists are threatened with losing their platforms for engaging in debate about the source and treatment of a deadly virus; in which prize-winning composers have been professionally ruined for saying arson is bad; in which authors are editing already-published books to placate online mobs. That should scare us far more than losing friends or status.

DJ-From discussion on Ivermectin to questioning the use of masks (I think maybe usefull in a chain of protection) exchanging views in a peacefull and respective manner seems to be an exception...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917778-cidrap-us-covid-19-cases-continue-to-fall%E2%80%94as-do-vaccinations[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917778-cidrap-us-covid-19-cases-continue-to-fall%E2%80%94as-do-vaccinations ; The daily number of new COVID-19 cases continues to drop across the country, to tallies not seen since 15 months ago, when the pandemic began. But new Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data show that young adult vaccine uptake is below that of older adults.
The United States reported 3,892 new COVID-19 cases yesterday and 83 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 tracker. Those numbers contribute to a 7-day average of new infections of 11,308, a 23% decline over the previous week, according to data from the Washington Post.
New daily deaths fell by 19.7% in the past week, and COVID-19–related hospitalizations fell by 8.4%.
These dramatic declines from the peak of COVID-19 activity in January are due to widespread vaccination.
The CDC COVID Data Tracker shows that 379,003,410 COVID-19 vaccine doses have been delivered in the United States, and 317,966,408 have been administered, with 149,667,646 Americans fully vaccinated (65.4% of adults have at least one dose of vaccine).

DJ-65% of adults at least one vaccination in the US with decrease of vaccine demand, some states being below 20% simply is bad. No doubr also testing going down-sequencing less then 5% with several variants increasing the outlook for the US-as with many other countries-simply is NOT good ! 

DJ-In the UK increase of Delta variant is going slower then expected a month ago. Still just over 10,000 new cases per day-not the 20,000+ that were expected. But the UK has better vaccine protection ! The Delta variant is expected to become the dominant variant in both the US and EU/Europe in july. Proberbly will be a major problem allready in august !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917777-cidrap-who-notes-progress-on-african-covid-19-vaccine-production-hub[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917777-cidrap-who-notes-progress-on-african-covid-19-vaccine-production-hub ;

Technology transfer hub slated for South Africa

At today's briefing, Tedros said the COVID-19 pandemic is a reminder that low-income countries can't rely on vaccine-producing countries to supply their needs, and that relying on just a few companies to supply public health goods is limiting and dangerous.
He said the current situation has prompted WHO calls for technology sharing, licensing, and the waiver of intellectual property rights. "Enhancing local production of health products has been an area of focus for WHO for several years, but the pandemic has brought it into even sharper focus."
In April, the WHO called for proposals to establish technology transfer hubs for COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, which teach manufacturers in low- and middle-income countries how to produce certain vaccines and give them licenses to make them. Tedros said mRNA vaccines are potentially easier to scale up and be adapted more quickly to variants.
He said the WHO received 50 proposals, half from producers and half from those interested in providing the know-how.
In today's announcement, Tedros said the WHO is in talks with groups to establish a technology transfer hub in South Africa, with Afrigen Biologics and Vaccines acting as the manufacturing hub and as a training provider another firm called Biovac. He added that the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will provide guidance through the Partnership for African Vaccines Manufacturing.

-

Pace of global drop slows

Also at today's briefing, Tedros said cases have declined for 8 weeks in a row, which is good news. However, he added that new infections and deaths are still at high levels, with declines slowing in all regions and some countries in every region experiencing rapid rises.
Africa's cases rose 40% over the past week, with deaths tripling or quadrupling in some of its countries, he said. "There are several reasons for these increases, including the increased spread of variants of concern, more social mixing, ineffective use of public health and social measures and vaccine inequity."
In related developments, Indonesia yesterday reported 13,737 cases, the highest since January, and the government said it will order new restrictions, including limits on crowd capacity at sites that include shopping malls and markets, according to the New York Times. And Brazil's fatality count topped 500,000 over the weekend, with experts there warning that the outbreak could worsen due to delays in vaccination and the government's refusal to support social distancing measures, according to Reuters.

-

• Two large Indian states — Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh — reported 360,000 excess deaths during the surge months, suggesting a massive undercount of COVID deaths, according to the Washington Post.

DJ-I think a reasonable idea on how many people did die from this pandemic so far would go into the "tens of millions"...and this pandemic may be getting worse again due to "reopening"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917771-india-black-fungus-cases-on-the-rise[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917771-india-black-fungus-cases-on-the-rise ; As of June, there were more than 31,000 cases of "black fungus" infections in India.
That was a 150% increase over the prior three weeks.
Those infections have been on the rise among COVID-19 survivors in the country.
See more stories on Insider's business page.

A puzzling epidemic of black fungus in India is spiraling out of control, with tens of thousands of COVID-19 survivors now battling the infection which can lead to blindness and death.

On June 11, NDTV reported that there were 31,216 cases of mucormycosis in the country and 2,109 deaths due to the infection — a 150% increase over the previous three weeks.

The government in India has not released official numbers, according to The New York Times. But last month, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called black fungus a "new challenge" in the COVID-19 outbreak, NDTV reported at the time.

While it's unclear what exactly has caused the surge in mucormycosis cases among COVID-19 survivors, doctors have theorized that it is connected to oxygen shortages during India's most recent surge,

DJ-Fungul infections by now have been reported in many countries-will become a global problem-if it is not already a global issue by now...(one of the reasons to claim this pandemic is getting worse. Another reason should be variants, but also new variants tending to evade immunity.)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/917769-cdc-reports-increase-in-respiratory-viruses-especially-in-kids-as-masks-come-off-in-parts-of-us[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/917769-cdc-reports-increase-in-respiratory-viruses-especially-in-kids-as-masks-come-off-in-parts-of-us ; The masks are coming off and winter-like respiratory viruses seem to be coming out of lockdown at the same time.

“A number of our ER visits include patients with common respiratory viruses that we only see during winter months,” said Dr. Kurt Sobush, pulmonologist at SSM Health Cardinal Glennon Children’s Hospital in St. Louis.

Cardinal Glennon is seeing a 20% increase in winter-like viruses, including RSV in children up to age 2.

DJ-Also using a clean mask may not be a problem if you are just going to one shop-but is a problem if you have to wear a mask all day for weeks...Some employers provide good, clean, safe, masks..

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/pneumonia-respiratory-and-influenza-like-illnesses-ili-ad/manitoba-ab/917766-third-case-of-rare-swine-flu-variant-found-in-southern-manitoba[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/pneumonia-respiratory-and-influenza-like-illnesses-ili-ad/manitoba-ab/917766-third-case-of-rare-swine-flu-variant-found-in-southern-manitoba ; WINNIPEG -- A third case of a rare swine flu variant has been identified in southern Manitoba.

The variant Influenza H3N2 was detected earlier this month.

The person experienced mild symptoms and was initially tested for COVID-19.

DJ Something to keep an eye on. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917728-uk-50-of-deaths-from-delta-variant-are-in-the-vaccinated[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917728-uk-50-of-deaths-from-delta-variant-are-in-the-vaccinated ;

PHE said a total of 806 people in England have been admitted to hospital with the Delta variant as of 14 June, a rise of 423 on the previous week.
Of the 806, 527 (65%) were unvaccinated, 135 (17%) were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine, and 84 (10%) were more than 14 days after their second dose.

As of 14 June, there have been 73 deaths in England of people who were confirmed as having the Delta variant and who died within 28 days of a positive test.

Of this number, 34 (47%) were unvaccinated, 10 (14%) were more than 21 days after their first dose of vaccine and 26 (36%) were more than 14 days after their second dose...

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UK Covid infections rise by 37% in a week as PM won't rule out winter lockdown

A total 10,663 new coronavirus cases and five more deaths were reported Monday, compared to 7,742 new infections and three fatalities the same time last week

DJ-Also in the link over 60,000 Delta variants detected in the UK...Very likely vaccines offer a high level of protection-and booster vaccines will make it even better-but against new variants protection may go under the 90%...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917604-germany-records-fewest-new-cases-since-last-summer-and-vaccination-programs-surge-forward-in-europe[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917604-germany-records-fewest-new-cases-since-last-summer-and-vaccination-programs-surge-forward-in-europe and;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917760-europe-watches-with-worry-as-the-delta-variant-spreads-fast-in-the-u-k-and-lisbon[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917760-europe-watches-with-worry-as-the-delta-variant-spreads-fast-in-the-u-k-and-lisbon ; Increased cases reported in the U.K. and Portugal have forced officials to reimplement lockdown restrictions or hold off on lifting pandemic mandates. Officials in France, Germany and Spain said they are closely monitoring clusters of infection tied to the delta variant.

DJ-Germany 6% of early june cases were Delta variant-but lots of them in children. I think a realistic estimate for NL would be the Delta variant above 10% of all new cases-the Dutch CDC may report latest info this afternoon...yet we are "reopening"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917209-russia-case-numbers-increase-vaccination-recommended-every-six-months-by-health-minister[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917209-russia-case-numbers-increase-vaccination-recommended-every-six-months-by-health-minister ;

• The spread of the Delta variant, first detected in India, across Russia has “seriously increased” in the last two weeks, Russian health authorities said Thursday
• Russians who were vaccinated against the coronavirus over six months ago should revaccinate themselves for extra protection as the country grapples with the third wave of the pandemic, Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said Monday.
  
  Moscow, the epicenter of the pandemic in Russia, reported its highest-ever number of Covid-19 cases in a single day this weekend as the fast-spreading Delta variant first detected in India accounts for 90% of all infections in the capital. The variant is more resistant to Covid-19 antibodies which gradually decline after one is vaccinated or recovers from the virus.
• Murashko said the one-dose version of Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine, Sputnik Light, will be available for those who wish to revaccinate from June 25.
  
  Once the current surge in infections subsides, people will only need to vaccinate against Covid-19 once per year, he said.

DJ-So Delta variant up to 90% of Moscow cases-and Moscow proberbly over 50% of all Russian cases...with low number of vaccinations giving limited protection. Russia is facing a serious health crisis !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917750-indonesia-hits-record-high-total-infections-surpass-2-million[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917750-indonesia-hits-record-high-total-infections-surpass-2-million ;

JAKARTA: Indonesia reported on Monday (Jun 21) a record-breaking 14,536 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the total number of infections nationally past the 2 million mark.

Cumulative total of cases now stands at 2,004,445.

The country also saw 294 deaths in the past 24 hours, which brought the total fatalities nationwide to 54,956.

Jakarta led Monday's tally with 5,014 new cases and 74 deaths.

Since the archipelago announced its first COVID-19 cases in March last year, the highest daily infections logged was 14,518 at the end of January.

-

The government has anticipated the rise by adding up to 72,000 isolation beds and 7,500 ICU beds, as previous holidays led to a significant increase of more than 60 per cent COVID-19 cases.

However, many hospitals and regions have reported a bed occupancy rate (BOR) of over 80 per cent in recent days with some regions even experiencing 90 per cent BOR...

DJ-Would not be surprised if the Delta variant is also widespread in Indonesia by now...

Some general conclusions; Moscow, Jakarta, earlier Kinshasa, Chinese mega cities, a lot of increases will first show up in the major mega-cities. The Delta(+) variant is over 2 times as infectious as the variant spreading early 2020-with NPI eroding, limited vaccination...another wave is on its way. Discussion of vaccinating children has limited use if-in many countries-hardly 50% of the adults are fully vaccinated. Maybe closing schools would be a better choice...

-Dr. John Campbell does not yet post another video. So music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Fc67yQsPqQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Fc67yQsPqQ Seal-Crazy 1991

One sad milestone [going metric with 'kilometre stone' just does not sound right]  is that the world average of deaths from covid-19 has hit the 500/million mark.    OK this is not a slate wiper, but it is still significantly high when looking at deaths from individual reasons.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Of course the official data is under reported and the actual death rate must be a lot higher, but it does feel to be good to be in Finland where the rate is 174/million.  Of course New Zealand is only at 5/million, but they would not let people like me in.

DJ, 

-Some basic statistics [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table ; Global weekly trend now just -3%...for new cases-for new deaths it is -9%.

In the high % score Israel at #6, with an increase of 274%-last week 135 cases-this week 505-in deaths -100% because they reported no deaths this week-10 deaths last week. Population just over 9 million so 505 new cases in a week is a lot...

Sweden at #19-increase cases=106%-last week 1,903-this week 3,919...deaths -82%, last week 17, this week 3-population-10,2 million.

UK at #39 is a bit further in the Delta-spread cases +44%-last week 55,216-this week 79,481-deaths +53% last week 66 this week 101-population of UK=68,2 million. 

By now 95 countries reporting increases-3 countries at 0% for the new cases. In deaths 74 countries reporting increases-33 countries at 0%. 

Based on these statistics wave four is already showing up worldwide...My (DJ) impression is-again experts underestimating the virus/variants...Stop The Spread....but "we" are increasing the spread...(One reason against claiming wave four would be wave three had not ended in some regions...looking at trens for cases-global may be -3%, Europe is already +7% !. North America is -7%, Asia (still) -9%, (India -26% is pushing numbers down-but Indonesia +58%, Bangladesh +53%, Thailand +24%, Vietnam +12% is balancing that soon...). South America -2% but Brazil +7%...Africa +25%, Oceania +69%...In Deaths both global and Europe -9%, North America -8%, Asia -18%, South America -5%, Africa +24%, and Oceania +700%-with limited numbers...)

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Did the Delta(+) variant reach Brazil ? Reporting 114,000+ new cases..on a global 430,000+ new cases-8.701 deaths. All top 10 countries reporting over 10,000 new cases, UK at #7, US at #9...

I did not yet mention "poor countries" often under reporting their numbers...Allthough sequencing is very limited-worldwide 1% may be optimistic ? and-due to vaccines-a lot of spread is asymptomatic-I (DJ) think the Delta-linked variants are "exploding" worldwide...

[url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ also gives some indications in that direction. Some further info at [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant .

Do vaccines work ? Well only if you are vaccinated-wich most of the global population-by far-is not. Based on early phase UK study Pfizer would offer 88% protection against the Delta-variant after two vaccines...But number of infections increases, variants deal with vaccines-so level of protection will further decrease...It is more likely a small group of people will get a third-or fourth-booster vaccine then that the global population will see better protection from vaccines in a way that matters...

Also not all vaccines do such a good job in all those vaccinated...Older people may see much less protection. 

-Flutrackers-latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917871-india-covid-19-variant-delta-plus-is-now-%E2%80%98variant-of-concern%E2%80%99-three-states-told-to-keep-a-watch-b-1-617-2-1?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917871-india-covid-19-variant-delta-plus-is-now-%E2%80%98variant-of-concern%E2%80%99-three-states-told-to-keep-a-watch-b-1-617-2-1?view=stream ; There was an earlier posting indicating that some corona virus variants were vastly more infectious (100x was claimed) than the current Covid variants.
That implies that this outbreak could escalate much more rapidly than we have seen to date, depending on how the mutations emerge.
Not reassuring if true..

DJ-Again-if we look at corona virus disease in animals-it is almost uncontrolable..."we" keep underestimating this virus ! I do not know if this virus could become "100x more infectious"-but I think it may develop towards resistent against all kind of immunity defenses we have-wich could the same sort of outcome...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream latest activities; 

I think that the primary issues here are nicely highlighted by Dr. John Campbell in his video here - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Of5_oiuqDp8

The issues raised are equally applicable to ALL repurposed drugs that have potential benefits, and are off-patent. There appears to be some very serious systemic failings of health and regulatory authorities at present that are allowing this situation to perpetuate, and this is becoming increasingly apparent and the evidence more stark as each day goes by. This is not a good situation for any country and its health authorities, the pharmaceutical companies themselves, nor their populations - if there are legal snags that mean acceptance of these repurposed drugs would compromise EUAs, then change the legislation to provide room for both/all approaches.

Fairly soon I hope that the penny will drop that no country can afford the ongoing economic damage caused by the pandemic, and to limit treatments to vaccines alone OR to solely go for novel treatment interventions under emergency use is simply unaffordable and if there are significant failures (severe long term effects) anywhere, then the backlash at every level will be severe.. The numbers of Long Covid sufferers is up to 30% of those affected, and there is NO indication that vaccination can protect from Long Covid, as mild and asymptomatic infections will still occur. In addition to all the other costs of actual infections, the costs of repeated vaccinations and the many subsequent interventions required to tackle the known sequelae of Covid infection (long term lung damage, myocarditis, type 1 diabetes, ME/CSF type conditions to name a few, not to mention the current concerns of neurologists over a potential avalanche of Parkinson's type disease, and the possibility of a huge uplift in cancers directly caused by the oxidative stress caused by active Covid infection, independent of severity of infection) are enough to bankrupt every country, including those in the West, not just from the direct costs but from the costs of losing a large chunk of your economically active populations. We need to throw everything at this - vaccination, PLUS (cheap) repurposed drugs PLUS novel interventions - there will still be needs for more specialist approaches where Pharma can make their profits, not to mention all the specialist meds that are / will be needed for long covid and its sequelae where no current treatments exist.

Surely there is more than enough profit to allow room for all these approaches at the same time, and everywhere across the globe.

DJ-The discussion on Ivermectin keeps going on...this is a june 21 post...Again-if Ivermectin is effective one would expect to see it used much more often...in some countries/regions it is...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917954-cidrap-ecdc-warns-of-extensive-delta-covid-19-variant-spread-this-summer[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917954-cidrap-ecdc-warns-of-extensive-delta-covid-19-variant-spread-this-summer ;

In a risk assessment today, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) estimated that the Delta (B1617.2) variant will make up 90% of SARS-CoV-2 viruses in Europe by the end of August.

Also, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday in its weekly snapshot of the pandemic that 6 more countries have detected the Delta variant, raising the total to 85, as a number of nations battle steady rises in COVID-19 cases.

ECDC: Speed up vaccination

In a video press release today, ECDC Director Andrea Ammon said there are many people who haven't received both vaccine doses, which have shown high protection against the Delta variant. "It is very important to progress with the vaccine rollout at a very high pace," she said, adding that it's crucial that high-risk groups receive their doses according to the shortest recommended interval to speed up protection.

In their risk assessment, officials said current evidence suggests that Delta is 40% to 60% more transmissible than the Alpha (B117) variant and may be associated with a higher risk of hospitalization.

The ECDC said if countries gradually ease their restrictions by half by Sep 1, the rise in COVID-19 will affect all age-groups, especially those younger than 50 years. Hospitalizations and deaths could reach levels seen in the fall of 2020 if no additional public health measures are taken.

Multiple hot spots worldwide

In its weekly epidemiologic update yesterday, the WHO said global cases declined 6% from the week before, while deaths fell 12%. It added, however, that cases markedly increased in Africa, and of five countries that reported the most cases last week, three are in the Americas: Brazil, Colombia, and Argentina. The others were India and Russia.

Countries reporting the steepest increases last week reflect a range of regions. Mongolia had the biggest increase, at 74%, followed by Bangladesh (55%), and Zambia (54%). Others included South Africa (48%), Indonesia (42%), the United Kingdom (33%), and Russia (31%), Iran, Iraq, Brazil, and Colombia reported more moderate increases.

More global headlines

• Australia's growing outbreak in Sydney, at 30 cases now and linked to the Delta variant, prompted more COVID measures in the affected area, including wearing masks in office settings, according to Reuters.
• New Zealand temporarily suspended travel from Australia's New South Wales state, home to Sydney, after a man traveled between the two countries while infectious, according to the Washington Post.
• The global today neared 180 million cases and is at 179,324,611, along with 3,885,405 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins online dashboard.

DJ-The only word describing ECDC NOT calling to stop spreading the virus is "bizarre"....You see Delta variant exploding...countries reopening and then "call on countries to increase vaccinations"...instead of increasing NPI...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/917226-us-wildlife-officials-investigating-mysterious-bird-illness-in-several-states?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/917226-us-wildlife-officials-investigating-mysterious-bird-illness-in-several-states?view=stream DJ-I think there may be some unclear links between African Swine Fever (ASF) and the start of the Covid19 pandemic...could symptoms of ASF hide Covid19 infections in pigs ? Make it almost impossible to detect co-infection with an early version of Covid19 ? Could the same thing be happening in some species of birds ? Maybe tests not detecting a covid-related virus ? See also [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/leading-us-scientist-finds-china-scrubbed-early-covid-data-could-help-explain-origins[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/leading-us-scientist-finds-china-scrubbed-early-covid-data-could-help-explain-origins and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/917936-recovery-of-deleted-deep-sequencing-data-sheds-more-light-on-the-early-wuhan-sars-cov-2-epidemic-preprint[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/917936-recovery-of-deleted-deep-sequencing-data-sheds-more-light-on-the-early-wuhan-sars-cov-2-epidemic-preprint ;The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 remains shrouded in mystery. Here I identify a data set containing SARS-CoV-2 sequences from early in the Wuhan epidemic that has been deleted from the NIH's Sequence Read Archive. I recover the deleted files from the Google Cloud, and reconstruct partial sequences of 13 early epidemic viruses. Phylogenetic analysis of these sequences in the context of carefully annotated existing data suggests that the Huanan Seafood Market sequences that are the focus of the joint WHO-China report are not fully representative of the viruses in Wuhan early in the epidemic. Instead, the progenitor of known SARS-CoV-2 sequences likely contained three mutations relative to the market viruses that made it more similar to SARS-CoV-2's bat coronavirus relatives...

DJ-Could Covid19 have jumped from bats to humans via pigs with African Swine Fever ? Did some Chinese pig-farmers feed their pigs with bats/bat-droppings-or food infected by bats ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917939-china-scrambles-as-delta-strain-strikes-megacities[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917939-china-scrambles-as-delta-strain-strikes-megacities ; China is calling for tighter seals on its borders as Covid-19 infections rise in its two southern megacities, where holes in their defenses have allowed the highly contagious delta strain to spread since May.

The lives of up to 60 million people in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as well as surrounding areas, have been upended by the B.1.617.2 strain, also known as delta, which originated in India and the World Health Organization (WHO) warns could soon become the world's dominant strain. The WHO recently described delta as the ''fittest'' of the viral strains.

Guangzhou has logged at least 153 cases of the variant in the month since the first patient surfaced. The woman had not traveled beyond the city limits for 12 months and thus the source of her infection puzzled epidemiologists.

Other than quarantine for close contacts in locked-down communities, persistent citywide mass testing and restrictions on gatherings are in place for Guangzhou residents, who must produce a clean medical slate 48 hours before they venture outside the city.

Even so, there have been reports of travelers from Guangzhou being rounded up and isolated elsewhere in the nation.

The city's modest caseload by international standards does not appear to justify such draconian measures but Guangzhou is now being referred to as China's new Wuhan, the original epicenter of the contagion...

DJ-I think China is doing its best to contain the outbreak-but still has a hard time. Guangzhou as a second Wuhan-lockdown is "bad news"...

I think some parts of the puzzle may be overlooked/unknown...We may need a new way of thinking/research to see both how this pandemic started and keeps spreading. Again-I am NOT an expert-but I think non-human hosts may be a key factor-from the start till the Delta-variant...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/917968-misfortune-never-comes-alone-the-new-%E2%80%9Cblack-fungus%E2%80%9D-accompanying-covid-19-wave[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/917968-misfortune-never-comes-alone-the-new-%E2%80%9Cblack-fungus%E2%80%9D-accompanying-covid-19-wave ; Abstract

Mucormycosis is a rare angio-invasive illness caused by the fungi Mucorales, which is often seen in immune-compromised patients. Rhino-orbitocerebral, cutaneous, disseminated, gastrointestinal, and pulmonary forms of this unusual fungal infection exist. Dr. Akshay Nair, a Mumbai-based eye surgeon, was waiting to operate on a 25-year-old woman who had recovered from Covid-19 three weeks prior on 8^th May 2021 morning. He inserted a tube into her nose and was scraping mucormycosis-infected tissues, an uncommon but harmful fungal infection. The nose, eye, and even the brain are all affected by this violent infection. Doctors are now registering a number of cases involving a mysterious infection - also known as the "black fungus" among returning and recovered Covid-19 patients as a deadly second wave of Covid-19 ravages India.

DJ-Fungul coinfections may increase the number of people dying in this pandemic.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/917967-part-of-the-covid19-puzzle-acute-parkinsonism[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/917967-part-of-the-covid19-puzzle-acute-parkinsonism ;Abstract

Parkinsonism developed owing to viruses is one of the important causes of secondary parkinsonism. After the Spanish flu pandemic, the increase in the number of parkinsonian cases in the long term has drawn attention on the relationship between viruses and parkinsonism. For this reason, the relationship between influenza and parkinsonism has been studied most. Nowadays in which we are experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists, based on the experiences gained from the Spanish flu pandemic, have drawn attention to the fact that the third wave of the pandemic might be parkinsonism. However, as we have reviewed in the literature, acute parkinsonism due to COVID-19 was not reported during this pandemic. Here, we present a case in which signs of acute parkinsonism developed on the 3rd day of the illness and neurological symptoms regressed with convalescent plasma treatment.

DJ A glimpse of what we may expect...

-[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoSuW2fkavM&t=43s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoSuW2fkavM&t=43s ZOE;

This week, Tim looks at the rise in cases in UK holiday hotspots and asks what's causing it? He also discussed how we compare to the rest of Europe, and the new top 5 ranking of symptoms for whether you've had one, two, or no vaccinations.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Wd5Ig8IDPI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Wd5Ig8IDPI Dr. John Campbell-global update;

US CDC, Rochelle Walensky Anticipates Delta will become dominant in next one to two months Doubled every two weeks May 8th, 1.2% Now, 20.6 %

300 million doses in 150 days 4th July VP and Jill Biden go south 38.3% of 18 -29s Fewer than 50 % of eligible population has received at least one dose Missouri, Arkansas, Nevada, Utah

Caseloads and hospitalizations are increasing Missouri Sewage surveillance Delta spreading quickly   Infection of whole households Prevention measures not working 

Explaining UK problem 40 + 60 = 100% more transmissible Lower inoculum combined with higher viral load 

UK Cases, + 16,135 = 4,667,870 (surge testing in Scotland) Deaths, + 19 = 128,027 Deaths, (certificated, 7 days), + 93 = 152,490 

Vaccinations All over 18s 200 days First dose, 82.5% Second dose, 60.3% 

3 in 5 adults have had 2 doses Interval for over 40s Down to 8 weeks  

Nadhim Zahawi Vaccine Deployment minister If 85% of all adults are double vaccinated, and the vaccines are 85% effective, then the protection level is 72% (28% of the population at some risk) 

Almost half of 25 to 29-year-olds in England, first dose Saved more than 14,000 lives Prevented 44,000 hospitalisations  

we have only seen 41 cases of the Delta Plus variant Thinks we are on top of it K417N, (as in Beta, SA) The so-called “delta plus” coronavirus variant has already infected at least 41 people in the UK, according to Public Health England.   

Indian authorities, of concern and sweeping across India First found in Nepal, evolved from Delta 

DJ-Do I get that right ? Is India now starting to see yet another wave-Delta+ variant ? [url]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57577138[/url] or https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57577138 ; 

DJ-Again-I am NOT an expert ! But with increase of vaccinations and variant spread-the (lack of) speed vaccinations are going is essential. If vaccinations go to slow more agressive variants will find ways-mutate-around vaccine immunity...That proces has been going on from the start of this pandemic, it is how virus reproduction-on a larger scale-works...

My impression is also experts again underestimating the speed with wich new variants spread...We may see a pause in this pandemic in some-lucky-regions. Enjoy the moment it will be a short pause-with the pandemic getting much worse soon. 

-Music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z42epfm_9Ig[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z42epfm_9Ig Mighty Sparrow-Only a fool;

Mighty Sparrow (with Byron Lee and the Dragonaires) - Only a fool (breaks his own heart) [1965] 

Why do I keep fooling myself 

When I know you love someone else

 Only a fool breaks his own heart 

I pretend that I don't see 

When you walk with him down the street 

Only a fool breaks his own heart 

I have to admit it 

Even though you hurt me so girl 

I can't forget it If I'm a man I'd let you go 

It's no use trying to hang on 

To a love already gone

 Only a fool breaks his own heart 

I have to admit it Even though you hurt me so girl 

I cant forget it If I'm a man I'd let you go 

It's no use trying to hang on 

To a love already gone Only a fool breaks his own heart 

Only a fool breaks his own heart Only a fool breaks his own heart

I have come to the conclusion, that this virus will never dissipate to the common cold type.

Reason....Speed of travel around the globe.  The coronavirus that led to the common cold began in times when the fastest thing around was a horse. Now look at us. 650 miles per hour and 300 in close proximity, in one container (fuselage).

As far as governments are concerned, MANAGEMENT is the best they can offer. (sorry for shouting). But, while ever governments disagree as to approach of management, then this virus will NEVER be managed, or controlled. It does not matter how much money is thrown at it, or printed to throw at it, the virus will simply persist. It will carry on with it's simple way of life....Survive, and procreate. Variants will continue to surface, and they will become more and more difficult to contain. Vaccines will become less and less effective, until, rather like antibiotics, become ineffective. The drug companies will always say, give us the funding, and we will provide the answer, but eventually, they too will fail. 

I do not necessarily agree that we are part of the 'earth's'' system..... Look at our growth in population. We are more like a 'Virus' than you may think. We go into an area, plunder it to exhaustion, then move on, all the while increasing in number. Spreading, like a virus.

Is this our time.

I need another flaming drink!!!  Back soon.

morpheuskrs wrote: I have come to the conclusion, that this virus will never dissipate to the common cold type. Reason....Speed of travel around the globe.  The coronavirus that led to the common cold began in times when the fastest thing around was a horse. Now look at us. 650 miles per hour and 300 in close proximity, in one container (fuselage). As far as governments are concerned, MANAGEMENT is the best they can offer. (sorry for shouting). But, while ever governments disagree as to approach of management, then this virus will NEVER be managed, or controlled. It does not matter how much money is thrown at it, or printed to throw at it, the virus will simply persist. It will carry on with it's simple way of life....Survive, and procreate. Variants will continue to surface, and they will become more and more difficult to contain. Vaccines will become less and less effective, until, rather like antibiotics, become ineffective. The drug companies will always say, give us the funding, and we will provide the answer, but eventually, they too will fail.  I do not necessarily agree that we are part of the 'earth's'' system..... Look at our growth in population. We are more like a 'Virus' than you may think. We go into an area, plunder it to exhaustion, then move on, all the while increasing in number. Spreading, like a virus. Is this our time. I need another flaming drink!!!  Back soon.

Yep..... quite agree.....

Visa vi : Russia,take a look at Israel.....!!!!! Big up take there and they  near fully vaccinated,.....Delta.... variant......

Watching Sydney Australia with interest, thankfully I live 3000 miles away,with very strict border control....

Take care all 😷😉

In Russia there is a major problem in public acceptence of the Sputnik-V vaccine. Sputnik-V proberbly as effective as AstraZeneca-both adeno-vaccines. Major difference is that with Sputnik-V the second vaccine is a bit different then the first...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_V_COVID-19_vaccine[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_V_COVID-19_vaccine .

I do not have enough knowledge to say much about Covid19 becoming more a cold-like virus. So far other corona-cold virusses did not take that long from jumping into people towards becoming a cold virus. Around 1880/1890 we may have seen a scenario of introduction of a corona virus into humans-creating a pandemic. "Russian Flu" was around 1890-but some "archeo-virologists" think the introduction may have been around 1880...

Speed could increase development towards a cold virus-one would hope ! But so far it worked the other way-creating several thousends of variants-of wich only a few get the "Variant of concern" (VOC) status...

-This pandemic underlines other problems. A US senator "starts listening" for a minimum donation of 10,000,- US$ ? Stopping international air traffic does not bring in donations...Ivermectin, vitamines may be effective but "make no cents"....Politicians-for-hire stop dealing with the climate problem...unless it brings in "donations"...In many ways both climate and pandemics are the outcome of a rotten fake "democrazy" defending injustice and inequality...We need democratic reforms, new human rights ! 

There is enough wealth in this world for all people-all over the world-to have safe drinking water, toilets, basic healthcare, education, housing...Proberbly 1/10 of what "we" spend on wars would make a big difference. If indeed Ivermectin, vitamins could make a major difference in this pandemic-but are not used because they do not bring in profit we have a global mental health crisis...

-The numbers [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics shows detected/sequenced findings of the Delta variant...since that number may be close to 1% of the real number-lack of testing/sequencing "we have a problem"....

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Due to the Delta (+) variants we are now in another wave-global cases up +0,6%...Europe +12%-main crises in UK, Portugal, Russia (+47%, +27%, +23% for cases-+53%, +31%, +18% for deaths...). Finland +14% for cases, -33% for deaths...Europe still at -0,6% for deaths-trends...

North America now at +2% for cases last week, +4% for deaths...The US still at -0,5% for new cases, -5% for deaths on a weekly basis...But the Delta variant will explode there as well...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/25/covid-contact-tracing-scaled-change-quarantine-rule[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/25/covid-contact-tracing-scaled-change-quarantine-rule "We" are doing all we can to spread the virus/variants and even create newer, more dangerous variants. The global healthcrisis is getting worse-and "we" can make it even more worse...Can we increase deaths and suffering faster than we did so far ? Yes we can ! We did double the number of people dying of the virus from 2020 in the first 5,5 months of 2021-lets double that number again in the rest of the year !

International air travel, party-time, are that essential it is worth dying for ! Most of those that died did not travel or party anyway...so who will miss them...The world is ruled by an international immoral jet-set...Crazy !

Israel numbers; +649%, last week 116 cases, this week 869 on a population of 9,3 million...

UK numbers; +47%, last week 61,181 cases, this week 89,996 on a population of 68,2 million...

Both countries at the top in both vaccinations and natural immunity...both now seeing the Delta-variant is out of control....(Please get realistic with these numbers ! Statistics on how good vaccines are protecting-with protection after full vaccination + two weeks are based at the early stages of the spread of the Delta variant. That number-now put at over 90+%-will come down when we sink deeper into this Delta-variant wave...certainly if other variants mix-creating an even worse variant. The speed in waves is increasing, time between waves decreasing. Wave five may come on top of wave four...The on average +400,000 new cases we are at now-as a "low point" -start of wave four-is alarmingly high...We should learn from India, what we do see now in the UK, are starting to see in Portugal, Russia, Israel...we could be in over a million cases-yet another healthcrisis-within two months. Lots of Health Care workers are exhausted, depressed, PTSD, Heath Care is moving into a staff-crisis high speed.

STOP THE SPREAD ! 

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/918106-cidrap-one-covid-vaccine-dose-yields-good-protection-in-elderly-2-studies-find[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/918106-cidrap-one-covid-vaccine-dose-yields-good-protection-in-elderly-2-studies-find ; As COVID-19 vaccines were first being approved for emergency use in the United Kingdom, the UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation decided to extend the interval before the second dose from 4 to 12 weeks to maximize the amount of people who could be vaccinated. This week, two Lancet Infectious Diseases studies estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) for the elderly after receiving just one dose.
A study involving more than 10,000 people 65 years and older found a VE of 65% to 68% 5 to 7 weeks post-vaccination, while one involving 466 people 80 years and older found a VE from 71% to 80%.

DJ-A good example how a good scientific study can be totally wrong ! The UK dropped the one-vaccine first strategy-rushing second vaccines-when the Delta variant became a problem. One vaccine offers less then 30% protection seems to be the idea now...(DJ-But again I am NOT an expert-just trying to follow the news...).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/918105-cidrap-covid-delta-spread-renews-mask-order-in-israel-lockdown-in-sydney[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/918105-cidrap-covid-delta-spread-renews-mask-order-in-israel-lockdown-in-sydney ; As several countries such as Indonesia battle fresh surges fueled by the Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant and other factors, others are taking early actions to limit the spread, including Australia and Israel.
In other developments, health officials in India fearing another wave of infections from a variant related to Delta, which they call Delta Plus, have put the brakes in the easing of restrictions in part of Marahashtra state.

DJ "Early action to limit the spread"in Israel ? "Fearing another wave" ? Please...

Delta activity gains speed, triggers warning bells

Indonesia yesterday reported a record daily high of more than 20,000 cases, with the Delta variant spreading in the wake of Ramadan holiday travel. And hospitals feeling the pressure are building tent emergency units to free up capacity for COVID-19 patients, according to Reuters.

Intensive care unit (ICU) beds are near capacity in Jakarta, where some hospitals are being set up to exclusively treat COVID-19 patients. Health officials have taken some distancing measures in the hardest hit areas, but have stopped short of full lockdowns.

Russia's capital Moscow, the country's main hot spot, reported a single-day high of 601 deaths, as the country reported 20,393 new cases, the highest since Jan 24, according to Arab News.

Meanwhile, Israel, which had recently driven its daily cases down into the single digits, reimposed its indoor mask order, with more than 200 new cases reported, the most since early April, according to the Times of Israel. The health ministry also signaled that it may reimpose limits on gatherings if cases continue to rise.

Elsewhere, Australia's outbreak in Sydney—also driven by the Delta variant—rose to 60 cases, and officials announced a week-long lockdown for downtown Sydney and its eastern suburbs, according to Reuters. The Australian Medical Association, a doctor's professional group, said the lockdown isn't big enough and needs to cover the whole Sydney area.

India tracks Delta variant offshoot

As cases steadily retreat from an unprecedented surge, Indian officials are fearing another rise in cases after identifying another variant related to Delta, which they call Delta Plus. According to the New York Times, it carries a mutation in the spike protein that is similar to the one in the Beta (B1351) variant, which has been linked a reduction in neutralization activity.

The Delta Plus sublineage virus was first found in India in April and has been detected in about 12 countries, including the United States.

According to Indian media reports, Maharashtra state—where Delta Plus was first detected—tightened some of its curbs, as its number of Delta Plus cases rise. The country's health ministry said at least 51 cases have been reported so far, roughly half from Maharashtra state.

More global headlines

• Public Health England said today in its weekly update that the Delta variant now makes up 95% of sequenced cases, with its case numbers rising 46% over the past week. Of about 35,000 Delta variant cases reported last week, 42 were the Delta Plus sublineage. The majority of people hospitalized in the last week were unvaccinated.
• At a World Health Organization (WHO) briefing today, top officials called out the shortage of vaccine for low-income countries, including Africa, where the Delta variant has triggered steep surges in several countries. The group's Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, said the trend in Africa is alarming. "It's becoming so dangerous and is completely exposing the unfairness of our world." He aired frustrations after meeting with the WHO's vaccine allocation group this week, which had no vaccine to share.
• The global total just topped 180 million and is at 180,176,351 cases, along with 3,903,639 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins online dashboard.

DJ The wording of this press release makes me sick....Experts keep running behind the facts...politicians partying still because they "did beat the virus" ...an insane circus...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/918101-cidrap-nearly-all-us-covid-19-deaths-now-preventable[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/918101-cidrap-nearly-all-us-covid-19-deaths-now-preventable ;For the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic began in earnest in March of 2020 in the United States, nearly all of the deaths recorded in recent weeks were preventable, occurring in unvaccinated Americans.
According to an Associated Press analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data from May, only about 150 of the more than 18,000 COVID-19 deaths in May were in fully vaccinated people, or less than 1%. This translates to 5 deaths per day attributed to fully vaccinated Americans experiencing breakthrough infections, and roughly 300 deaths per day in the unvaccinated.
Vaccination has also reduced US hospitalizations significantly: Fully vaccinated people made up less than 1,200 of more than 853,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations in May.

DJ-Scientific rubbish !!!! Garbage !!!! Vaccine protection is dropping high speed confronted with the Delta variant ! (I want to stay polite but   I miss the explosive anger emoticon...). 

Experts keep making a mess of this pandemic ! In early 2020 "no direct flights from Wuhan" would save NL from this pandemic...Studies like "one vaccine offering good protection" , "deaths are preventable if you are fully vaccinated", indicate vaccine producers are doing the promotion "pseudo-science"....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918095-israel-requires-masks-indoors-again-as-delta-variant-drives-up-cases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918095-israel-requires-masks-indoors-again-as-delta-variant-drives-up-cases 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917209-russia-case-numbers-increase-vaccination-recommended-every-six-months-by-health-minister[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917209-russia-case-numbers-increase-vaccination-recommended-every-six-months-by-health-minister 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-in-last-7-days-cases-up-44-8-deaths-up-32-1-hospitalizations-up-17-0-june-24-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-in-last-7-days-cases-up-44-8-deaths-up-32-1-hospitalizations-up-17-0-june-24-2021 ; Today's data. I am watching this to see how a trend might develop in the US. The US has a lesser percentage of vaccinated persons, and has more restrictions on contact, therefore, the UK data is probably an optimistic scenario compared to the US. imho.

DJ-The basic idea behind pushing zillions of $, €, etc to Big Pharma maffia was "vaccines will save us" so we "can reopen economy" ...Wrong ! My impression is you need BOTH-vaccinations and NPI...but that does not bring "donations to political parties"....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/918057-immunity-analysis-of-sars-cov-2-variant-mutations-reveals-neutralization-escape-mechanisms-and-the-ability-to-use-ace2-receptors-from-additional-species[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/918057-immunity-analysis-of-sars-cov-2-variant-mutations-reveals-neutralization-escape-mechanisms-and-the-ability-to-use-ace2-receptors-from-additional-species ; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants continue to emerge during the global pandemic and may facilitate escape from current antibody therapies and vaccine protection. 

Here we showed that the South African variant B.1.351 was the most resistant to current monoclonal antibodies and convalescent plasma from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-infected individuals, followed by the Brazilian variant P.1 and the United Kingdom variant B.1.1.7. 

This resistance hierarchy corresponded with Y144del and 242-244del mutations in the N-terminal domain and K417N/T, E484K, and N501Y mutations in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2. Crystal structure analysis of the B.1.351 triple mutant (417N-484K-501Y) RBD complexed with the monoclonal antibody P2C-1F11 revealed the molecular basis for antibody neutralization and escape. B.1.351 and P.1 also acquired the ability to use mouse and mink ACE2 receptors for entry. 

Our results demonstrate major antigenic shifts and potential broadening of the host range for B.1.351 and P.1 variants, which poses serious challenges to current antibody therapies and vaccine protection.

DJ-Translation; The Delta+ variant has the K417N mutation-one of the mutations making vaccines less effective. These kinds of mutations show up more and more-so vaccines will become less and less protective...The ACE2 receptors in minks-easy to catch Covid19-are also (more or less) in mice (and rats...)...What role do mice, rats play in spreading this pandemic ? 

Conclusion-"We"are doing everything we can to make this pandemic worse then the Spanish Flu killing 2-5% of the global population in 1918/19. "Can we do it ? Yes we can !"

"Political reforms" are needed to get out of the climate crisis-this pandemic is just part of a bigger problem...The present "political system" may the worst part of the problem...Economic growth causing global destruction is no longer progress...but most of the "political class" do not want to see that yet...

-Dr. John Campbell [url] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JETqBIl4mOo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JETqBIl4mOo "Delta goes to Europe";

Why is the UK worst / first effected? April, 20,000 people arrived in UK from India in first 3 weeks Multiple introductions Any single introduction may simply die out

DJ-BoJo did not want to stop (in)direct flights from India/South Asia...

EU health officials, 90% of cases by late August. 

Germany Angela Merkel Europe is on thin ice All member states should quarantine arrivals from the UK

The wording Headache and runny nose linked to Delta is "not good"; if "headache and a runny nose"were the main problems it would not be a major problem...Vaccine escape, deaths going up are the main problems !

Andrea Ammon, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) preliminary data shows that it can also infect individuals that have received only one dose of the currently available vaccines Two doses offered high protection against the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant 
DJ A pseudo religion...vaccine protection may be high at the start of a new wave-but has to proof itself during that wave...Big Pharma "protecting the people"...

France Delta in Les Landes in the south-west, 70% Nationally, 10% 30% fully vaccinated 

President Emmanuel Macron We should all be vigilant because the Delta variant is coming

DJ-Realy ? Such leadership ! We see that it affects people who have not yet been vaccinated or who have only had one dose, which means we have to be even faster in this vaccination campaign 

Russia Cases, + 20,000 Deaths, 569 deaths Highest figures since January 

Moscow - Delta variant, 90% of new infections, (mayor) 

Vaccinations as of 16th June First dose, 12.8% Fully vaccinated, 9.9% 

Portugal New restrictions, Lisbon, Tagus valley 

Delta more than 50% of new cases Cabinet Minister Mariana Vieira da Silva an attempt to contain the Delta variant Country could have acted differently  

Euro 2020 Germany v England in London next Tuesday 60,000 fans (75% capacity) 

German World Medical Association (Frank Ulrich Montgomery) Travelling to the UK runs the risk of getting infected with the Delta variant I consider it irresponsible for even vaccinated people to travel to London in this situation 

Denmark Asked 4,000 fans to get tested Three people tested Delta positive Last Thursday's Denmark v Belgium All three are thought to have been infected at the game 

Boris Johnson NHS covid app running in England Fully vaccinating people offered a good way forward for resuming travel

DJ Dr.J.C. has a religious belief in vaccines I do not share...Social distancing/NPI are step 1-If you can deal without Big Pharma for profit you may be more safe...

Music; Public Image Limited-Rise [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq7JSic1DtM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vq7JSic1DtM "Anger is an energy"....See also BBC 2014 interview [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eO1YuxzHb0w[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eO1YuxzHb0w John Lydon-alaias "Johny Rotten" much more money needed in public teaching, healthcare...Corrupt "politicians" calling him "a new hitler"...In the UK "BoJo" rather starting a war with Russia [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/06/experts-british-hms-defender-stunt-near-crimea-was-patently-illegal.html [/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/06/experts-british-hms-defender-stunt-near-crimea-was-patently-illegal.html then stopping this pandemic...US "politicians" spreading hatred against China...

I hope it does, and that is the usual path for viruses, but it is not guaranteed.  

Occasionally viruses get more virulent.

Appologies for the Oxford comma.

DJ,

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_coronavirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_coronavirus ; According to phylogenetic estimate all coronaviruses evolved from the most recent common ancestor that lived around 190 to 489 (with a mean of 293) million years ago.^[133] The four genera split up around 2,400 to 3,300 years ago into bat and avian coronavirus ancestors. Bat coronavirus gave rise to species of Alphacoronavirus and Betacoronavirus that infect mammals, while avian coronavirus produced those of Gammacoronavirus and Deltacoronavirus that infect birds.^[134] Zoonotic coronaviruses emerged recently. For instance, SARS-CoV was transmitted from bats in 1998 (4.08 years prior to the outbreak),^[135] and diverged from bat coronavirus in around 1962. SARS-CoV-2 evolved from bat coronavirus in around 1948

When you look at corona viral infections it is my understanding that most of those infections are causing a specific disease-that may in time develop in different ways-but ending up as a cold is just a possibility-of many ways...This pandemic may have become that big the corona virusses may find several ways-in several species. The outcome could be that some of those ways will end up in a cold-like disease, others may see all kind of other diseases. 

Infections can be all over the body-resulting in all kind of diseases. If Covid19 manages to get widespread in non-human hosts as well there is no need to "preserve" humans for the survival of this type of corona virus...

-Peak Prosperity did another video on;As you know, the COVID-19 vaccines are being steam-rolled out and the social, corporate, and governmental pressure to take them is immense.  In this video, I introduce you to Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche’s controversial critique of this initiative. Dr. Bossche has devoted his entire career to vaccines, so I invite you to consider what he has to say about mass vaccination using these vaccines during this pandemic. 

DJ-The basic point is that if vaccines do not stop the virus (but only offer protection-for some time-against severe disease) the virus will mutate into more dangerous variants. 

Again-virusses do not "think" or "plan"-they just reproduce themselves in host cells in very large numbers. During reproduction mistakes are made=mutations. Most of the time those mutations make a virus weaker-so that "brench of the viral tree ends there"...Some mmutations do seem to "not matter"-and may get reproduced...at first without making much difference in infections or disease severity. Other mutations result in a need for a lower viral load for the virus to spread, or reproducing more viral parts-both make this virus more infectious. 

I think the "do not matter much mutations" in combination with some other mutations can cause a virus to get "more agressive"...Another major mutation is recombination. A mix of two virus-strings "melting together" resulting in major viral changes...

But again-I am not an expert, just trying to follow the story...

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table ; global cases up +1% on a weekly basis. Since both the UK and Israel are "best vaccinated countries" I keep an eye on them; 

UK (#37 in the list of highest increases) on a weekly basis +53%. Last week 63,764 cases-these last 7 days=this week 97,618 cases...on a population of 68,2 million. 

Israel-lower numbers still but at #8 in highest % growth; +488%-last week 169, this week 993-on a population of 9,3 million. 

Since vaccinations often result in asymptomatic spread, pandemic fatigue, both countries may be missing lots of cases. Israel reported 1 death this week-0 last week=increase of 100%...but numbers still to low to be of use. The UK did report an increase of 61% in deaths-last week 74, this week 119...

Since vaccine protection% is also "just" a statistic; If in a group of 1,000 fully vaccinated people 10 die from Covid infection the idea is vaccine offers 99% protection...That statistic may be in the "news" for weeks...When the Delta variant gets widespread for a longer time maybe 200 people fully vaccinated-out of 1,000 die=still 80% protection...but "not welcome=no news"....

The list of countries reporting increases is now 86-with lots of countries doing bad in testing...Finland has an increase -in part-imported from Russia-St. Petersburg Euro 2020 football match +45%. Last week 495 cases, this week 720 cases on a population of 5,5 million. Finland did very good so far in this pandemic...New Zealand a.o. +25%-this week detecting 15 cases. Australia +58%-this week 134 cases...

Asymptomatic spread may increase risk of community spread not being noticed...also milder symptoms at the start-hay fever like-can be easy to ignore. But reports indicate symptoms can get much more severe in Delta variant cases-2x more hospital cases then with the old variant of earl 2020 (if I am correct...as far as is known). 

-Flutrackers latest posts and some other links;

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-coronavirus-cabinet-to-convene-sunday-review-options-as-infections-rise/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-coronavirus-cabinet-to-convene-sunday-review-options-as-infections-rise/ ; 

“The outbreaks are happening mostly with unvaccinated people,” Dr. Itai Pessach, Director of Safra Children’s Hospital at Sheba Medical Center, told Channel 13. “When most of the population is vaccinated, most illness will be light-to-nonexistent.”

The head of public health services in the Health Ministry, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, told Channel 12: “I don’t see a lockdown happening in the near future, but we need to act to get transmission rates as low as possible.”

DJ-Vaccinations protect against (severe) disease-so far. Transmission may go on in vaccinated people-and there is a major risk in that !

[url]https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-reports-first-domestic-case-delta-covid-variant-2021-06-26/[/url] or https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-reports-first-domestic-case-delta-covid-variant-2021-06-26/ ; 

Taiwan reported its first domestically transmitted case of the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus on Saturday, tightening controls in a southern part of the island where the cases have occurred.

Taiwan is battling a cluster of domestic infections, almost all of them due to the previously globally dominant Alpha variant, though numbers are steadying and the outbreak has been comparatively small.

DJ-Just like countries as Finland, Australia, New Zealand-managing to keep numbers very limited so far means hardly any natural immunity...Since so far the risk in these countries was that limited often they do not feel a need for vaccinations. 

(S)Low vaccinations give variants all the room to both Evade (get around) immunity and Escape (become resistent to that part of defense)... E&E Evade and Escape are the outcome of slow vaccinations. "Rich countries" rather go for third/fourth round of vaccinations in their own population then exporting vaccines to "poor countries". The outcome is that in those countries we keep poor (an act of agression) like DRC, Haiti all kind of variants can develop-but since there is no testing or sequencing we simply close our eyes...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/australia-2019-ncov/918157-sydney-to-go-into-full-covid-lockdown-for-two-weeks[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/australia-2019-ncov/918157-sydney-to-go-into-full-covid-lockdown-for-two-weeks ; Sydney will go into full lockdown from 6pm tonight for two weeks.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian made the announcement this afternoon after NSW recorded 29 new community Covid infections earlier today - the biggest rise in daily cases since the latest outbreak began. Seventeen of those cases were announced yesterday.

DJ-Lockdowns-Non Pharma Interventions offers the best protection. If we did stop air travel around the globe early 2020 we would not have had this pandemic...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-june-24[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-june-24 DJ-UK statistics-of course hospital cases, deaths go up if there are more infections. It is a matter of time...hospital cases go up 7-10 days after cases go up. Deaths often up 20 days after cases go up...but the UK is not counting those that died after 28 days after a positive test as Covid-death...("must be other causes").

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/918134-world-j-gastroenterol-high-fecal-calprotectin-levels-are-associated-with-sars-cov-2-intestinal-shedding-in-covid-19-patients-a-proof-of-concept-study[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/918134-world-j-gastroenterol-high-fecal-calprotectin-levels-are-associated-with-sars-cov-2-intestinal-shedding-in-covid-19-patients-a-proof-of-concept-study ;

One third of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients have gastrointestinal symptoms. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA has been detected in stool samples of approximately 50% of COVID-19 individuals. Fecal calprotectin is a marker of gastrointestinal inflammation in the general population.

DJ-Also a remark in this link on PCR testing, not perfect-but if there are better tests it would be welcome...Point is Covid19 may present itself with other symptoms-could be misdiagnosed...missed..

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/north-america-ab/north-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918149-cuba-reports-12-deaths-and-more-than-2-000-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-second-consecutive-day[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/north-america-ab/north-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918149-cuba-reports-12-deaths-and-more-than-2-000-cases-of-covid-19-for-the-second-consecutive-day ; Cuba confirmed at the end of this Friday more than 2,000 cases of COVID-19 for the second consecutive day, with 2,403 infections, as well as 12 deaths and 1,658 medical discharges, informed Dr. Francisco Durán García, national director of Epidemiology of the Ministry of Public Health (Minsap).

DJ-Cuba may be part of the countries that did do reasonable so far...See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/north-america-ab/north-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918148-mexico-reopens-temporary-hospital-space-as-virus-surges[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/north-america-ab/north-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918148-mexico-reopens-temporary-hospital-space-as-virus-surges ; After months of closing temporary hospital spaces as the coronavirus pandemic receded, Mexico announced Friday it will re-open two temporary wards to handle a resurgence of COVID-19 cases.

DJ-While the Delta (+?) variant is becoming the dominant variant-high speed-around the globe some other variants are still around in some regions...End of july almost 90% of global cases will be Delta variants ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918144-delta-variant-spreading-rapidly-from-lisbon-to-rest-of-portugal[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918144-delta-variant-spreading-rapidly-from-lisbon-to-rest-of-portugal ;  Over 70 per cent of coronavirus cases in the Lisbon area are from the more contagious Delta variant, which is quickly spreading to other parts of the country, a report said late on Friday, as authorities scramble to stop a worrying rise in infections.

The national health institute, Ricardo Jorge, said in its report that the Delta variant, first identified in India, represented 51 per cent of cases in mainland Portugal, showing the variant is "spreading rapidly" as it happened in Britain.

New coronavirus cases rose by 1,604 on Friday, the biggest jump since February 19, when the country of just over 10 million people was still under lockdown. In total, Portugal has recorded 871,483 cases and 17,081 deaths since the pandemic began...

DJ-I believe most of Portugal is still open for tourism...from the US, UK, EU etc....( [url]https://www.tui.co.uk/destinations/europe/portugal/holidays-portugal/last-minute-holidays[/url] or https://www.tui.co.uk/destinations/europe/portugal/holidays-portugal/last-minute-holidays yes it is...both from NL or UK...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/mosquito-control-info/918143-mosquitos-carrying-jamestown-canyon-virus-detected-in-new-hampshire-for-1st-time-ever[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/mosquito-control-info/918143-mosquitos-carrying-jamestown-canyon-virus-detected-in-new-hampshire-for-1st-time-ever and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/mosquito-control-info/918142-mosquito-borne-jamestown-canyon-virus-confirmed-in-michigan[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/mosquito-control-info/918142-mosquito-borne-jamestown-canyon-virus-confirmed-in-michigan ; Residents are reminded that the best way to protect themselves against JCV and other mosquito-borne illnesses, including Eastern Equine Encephalitis (EEE) and West Nile virus (WNV), is to prevent mosquito bites... 

DJ-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamestown_Canyon_encephalitis[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamestown_Canyon_encephalitis ; The virus is one of a group of mosquito-borne or arthropod-borne viruses, also called arboviruses, that can cause fever and meningitis or meningoencephalitis, mostly in adults. Jamestown Canyon virus disease is relatively rare; in the United States, the CDC found only 31 disease cases from 2000 to 2013, but it is likely under-recognized and probably endemic throughout most of the United States.

Another disease that may become problematic....When will it show up in Europe ? Imported ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/918140-vaccine-the-need-for-broadly-protective-covid-19-vaccines-beyond-s-only-approaches[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/918140-vaccine-the-need-for-broadly-protective-covid-19-vaccines-beyond-s-only-approaches ;DJ-"Better" vaccines may help but we also have to rethink the way we behave...Is it that essential to fly all over the planet in such large numbers ? Do we need to keep all those animals to eat them ? Are we taking pandemics serious or "just another problem we ignore"....Like [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/06/seattle-will-have-a-hot-sunday.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/06/seattle-will-have-a-hot-sunday.html temperatures between 40 and 50 C/ 110/120 F for the western US/Canada "is just funny" - "no need for alarm or action"...

WAR

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/propaganda-begins-for-war-with-russia-in-about-48-hours-british-press-claiming-crimea-torture-chambers-just-like-iraq-throwing-babies-out-of-incubators-back-in-1991[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/propaganda-begins-for-war-with-russia-in-about-48-hours-british-press-claiming-crimea-torture-chambers-just-like-iraq-throwing-babies-out-of-incubators-back-in-1991 and [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/hal-turner[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/hal-turner 

DJ-Since this pandemic is getting worse-again-strategy/politics failing-again, why not start a war ? There is always someone you can fight with ! Russia has a lot of oil and gas that we want ! So, after NApoleon, NAzi's now NAto is getting ready to "liberate Russia"....

Of course Hal Turner is not the best source-he is also not the only source [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/06/experts-british-hms-defender-stunt-near-crimea-was-patently-illegal.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/06/experts-british-hms-defender-stunt-near-crimea-was-patently-illegal.html  [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea:_The_Last_Crusade[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimea:_The_Last_Crusade [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_War[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_War ;

The Crimean War^[e] was a military conflict fought from October 1853 to February 1856^[9] in which Russia lost to an alliance made up of France, the Ottoman Empire, the United Kingdom and Sardinia. The immediate cause of the war involved the rights of Christian minorities in the Holy Land, then a part of the Ottoman Empire. The French promoted the rights of Roman Catholics, while Russia promoted those of the Eastern Orthodox Church. Longer-term causes involved the decline of the Ottoman Empire and the unwillingness of Britain and France to allow Russia to gain territory and power at the Ottoman Empire's expense. It has widely been noted that the causes, in one case involving an argument over a key,^[10] have never revealed a "greater confusion of purpose", yet they led to a war that stood out for its "notoriously incompetent international butchery"

DJ Can't fix stupid...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBQX31HK5EQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBQX31HK5EQ ; Johnson's Folly: PM Led UK To Brink of War with Russia in Black Sea Naval Clash

Music; Down Down-Status Quo-1974 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1gYJDQXPOk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1gYJDQXPOk 

KiwiMum, the picture I am getting from New Zealand is a bit more hopefull then that of Australia. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] In Australia cases going up 58%-to 134 cases this week. But also reports of Covid-often Delta-cases all over Australia. [url]https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-27/queensland-coronavirus-mine-worker-positive/100240746[/url] or https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-27/queensland-coronavirus-mine-worker-positive/100240746 ; 

The miner had been working in the Northern Territory and flew to Brisbane before travelling to the Sunshine Coast, Queensland Health said in a statement.

He is one of five cases linked to a major Central Australian gold mine that sent Greater Darwin into a 48-hour lockdown on Sunday.

Northern Territory authorities said earlier they believed the cluster had the highly infectious Delta strain.

NT Chief Minister Michael Gunner called the outbreak the territory's "biggest threat since the COVID crisis began".

The presence of a possible Delta strain in Queensland is likely to put authorities on higher alert.

DJ So cases from Sydney, Melbourne, Darwin to even W.A. Perth ? [url]https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-27/wa-government-imposes-restrictions-on-perth-peel-regions/100247502[/url] or https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-27/wa-government-imposes-restrictions-on-perth-peel-regions/100247502 ; The WA government has imposed new COVID-19 restrictions on people in Perth and the Peel region after a woman tested positive to coronavirus.

The Perth woman who tested positive for COVID-19 travelled to New South Wales nearly two weeks ago and visited a known Sydney hotspot. 

Authorities said she was likely to have been infectious in the community over a three-day period, from June 22 to June 24, and a number of venues — including two schools — have been declared potential exposure sites.

However, her husband has returned a negative test.

DJ -Dr.John Campbell had a video on Australia-[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osalpiUg6Eo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osalpiUg6Eo  from the comments;

After this was recorded, a flight attendant has been tested positive after being on 6 flights over the last two days between Melbourne, Brisbane and Sydney.

-

In a weird mirroring, I’m an Australian living in Taiwan. We finally got the uk variant of the virus here about a month ago. We’ve been in quasi lockdown and the numbers have gone down nicely. But as of two days ago, we got the delta variant so now it’s going to be more difficult. Oh and it seems to have been spread by a taxi driver. Great job 👏🏾

DJ-With often the Delta variant spreading all over Australia-low natural immunity or vaccinations-the Delta variant could go wild...

See also [url]https://www.abc.net.au/news/story-streams/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.abc.net.au/news/story-streams/coronavirus/