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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

scenario's

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2021 at 9:03pm

DJ, 

When I look at the numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table the time between the peak and the low in global cases is about two months; roughly mid december a sort of peak-mid february sort of low, mid april another peak followed mid june by another low....by that time vaccines allready were a factor...So did we have a peak middle of august - to be followed by a low in mid october, another peak mid december ? 

From the Dutch microbiologist [url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ retweeting WHO; 

"The Delta variant will not be the last #COVID19 variant of concern. To fight it, we need to: - surge vaccination efforts - improve surveillance systems - use tests efficiently - manage gatherings appropriately - fix ventilation - communicate consistently ..." - Dr @mvankerkhove

DJ, what we gained by vaccines we gave away with lifting of restrictions...at least as far as governments can influence individual choices...[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDingWho needs healthy kidneys anyways”—is what folks who ignore #LongCovid / don’t care about mild infections are de facto saying. New study (in a top nephrology journal) finds huge drops in kidney function if #COVID19 infected, even if not hospitalized! Collectie https://jasn.asnjournals.org/content/jnephrol/early/2021/08/25/ASN.2021060734.full.pdf?with-ds=yes

I do not want that virus ! Dr.J.C. can be talking on "planning when to catch it-boost immunity" I am planning on NOT to catch it at all !

Are the "wave-peaks" that predictable four months from eachother ? I do not think so. It is getting more and more complex...

At [url]https://coronadashboard.government.nl/gemeente/GM0202/positief-geteste-mensen[/url] or https://coronadashboard.government.nl/gemeente/GM0202/positief-geteste-mensen I try to keep an eye on the local situation for (hospital)cases, sewage etc...but to have good numbers you need good enough testing...And mild/no symptoms in vaccinated may see infections being much higher then local statistics will tell...so to get a view of where we are going;

.maximum testing/sequencing

.good info on how much people, what kind of people, will be where...(I avoid school-hours as best as I can)

.where (in small NL) cases seem to be going up-and why ? (Mass event, churches, school cases...)

On a global scale it may still be a lot of children do not get very ill themselves but spread the virus further..a sort of delay in increase of cases. Global trends -11% for cases, -8% for deaths seems to be decreasing...If vaccines offer 6 to 8 months good protection many countries by now may start seeing the first signs of waning vaccine immunity...

Also Delta can give more then one peak...

So "can we live with the virus" ? Do we have a choice ? We may have to live with the virus-but that virus will create a permanent pandemic like situation...if we have a chance to "NOT live with the virus" (like New Zealand is trying to do, China wants..) it would be the better option...

And YES !!! The vaccines do a great job but can not do all of the job by far ! The "exit-strategy" had to be a combination of vaccines AND restrictions ! To get the R0 as close to 0 as possible and later on try to keep local outbreaks limited...but that is not the road we did choose...

I think the best description for the present situation would be; "Looking for the right house in the wrong street"....

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/923540-analysis-of-2-1-million-sars-cov-2-genomes-identifies-mutations-associated-with-transmissibility-preprint[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/923540-analysis-of-2-1-million-sars-cov-2-genomes-identifies-mutations-associated-with-transmissibility-preprint ; Repeated emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with increased transmissibility necessitates rapid detection and characterization of new lineages. 

To address this need, we developed PyR0, a hierarchical Bayesian multinomial logistic regression model that infers relative transmissibility of all viral lineages across geographic regions, detects lineages increasing in prevalence, and identifies mutations relevant to transmissibility. 

Applying PyR0 to all publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we identify numerous substitutions that increase transmissibility, including previously identified spike mutations and many non-spike mutations within the nucleocapsid and nonstructural proteins.

 PyR0 forecasts growth of new lineages from their mutational profile, identifies viral lineages of concern as they emerge, and prioritizes mutations of biological and public health concern for functional characterization.

One Sentence summary: A Bayesian hierarchical model of all viral genomes predicts lineage transmissibility and identifies associated mutations.

DJ We have the tools, we do not use them well enough...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923536-our-most-reliable-pandemic-number-is-losing-meaning[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923536-our-most-reliable-pandemic-number-is-losing-meaning ;

At least 12,000 Americans have already died from COVID-19 this month, as the country inches through its latest surge in cases. But another worrying statistic is often cited to depict the dangers of this moment: The number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the United States right now is as high as it has been since the beginning of February. It’s even worse in certain places: Some states, including Arkansas and Oregon, recently saw their COVID hospitalizations rise to higher levels than at any prior stage of the pandemic. But how much do those latter figures really tell us?

From the start, COVID hospitalizations have served as a vital metric for tracking the risks posed by the disease. Last winter, this magazine described it as “the most reliable pandemic number,” while Vox quoted the cardiologist Eric Topol as saying that it’s “the best indicator of where we are.” On the one hand, death counts offer finality, but they’re a lagging signal and don’t account for people who suffered from significant illness but survived. Case counts, on the other hand, depend on which and how many people happen to get tested. Presumably, hospitalization numbers provide a more stable and reliable gauge of the pandemic’s true toll, in terms of severe disease. But a new, nationwide study of hospitalization records, released as a preprint today (and not yet formally peer reviewed), suggests that the meaning of this gauge can easily be misinterpreted—and that it has been shifting over time.

If you want to make sense of the number of COVID hospitalizations at any given time, you need to know how sick each patient actually is. Until now, that’s been almost impossible to suss out. The federal government requires hospitals to report every patient who tests positive for COVID, yet the overall tallies of COVID hospitalizations, made available on various state and federal dashboards and widely reported on by the media, do not differentiate based on severity of illness. Some patients need extensive medical intervention, such as getting intubated. Others require supplemental oxygen or administration of the steroid dexamethasone. But there are many COVID patients in the hospital with fairly mild symptoms, too, who have been admitted for further observation on account of their comorbidities, or because they reported feeling short of breath. Another portion of the patients in this tally are in the hospital for something unrelated to COVID, and discovered that they were infected only because they were tested upon admission. How many patients fall into each category has been a topic of much speculation. In August, researchers from Harvard Medical School, Tufts Medical Center, and the Veterans Affairs Healthcare System decided to find out...

DJ If you look at hospital cases you may miss long CoViD...Asymptomatic spread in vaccinated-and what kind of virus is spreading-may also be important...If you go for "living with the virus" hospital cases seem to be the major number; burden on healthcare...If you go for "Zero-Covid" increasing testing and sequencing is major...and we seem to be decreasing that...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923533-prepare-for-a-rough-few-months-of-covid-19-according-to-these-scientists[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923533-prepare-for-a-rough-few-months-of-covid-19-according-to-these-scientists ; “I see these continued surges occurring throughout the world,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis, and an adviser to U.S. President Joe Biden. “Then it will drop, potentially somewhat precipitously,” he said. “And then I think we very easily could see another surge in the fall and winter” of this year, he added.
With billions of people around the world yet to be vaccinated and little chance now of eliminating the virus, we can expect more outbreaks in classrooms, on public transport and in workplaces over the coming months, as economies push ahead with reopening. Even as immunization rates rise, there will always be people who are vulnerable to the virus: Newborn babies, people who can’t or won’t get inoculated, and those who get vaccinated but suffer breakthrough infections as their protection levels ebb.

The next few months will be rough. One key danger is if a vaccine-resistant variant develops, although it is not the only risk ahead. In the coming months, Bloomberg will explore the pandemic’s long-term impact on economies and markets, the pharmaceutical industry, travel and more.

“We’re going to see hills and valleys, at least for the next several years as we get more vaccine out. That’s going to help. But the challenge is going to be: How big will the hills and valleys be, in terms of their distance?” Osterholm said. “We don’t know. But I can just tell you, this is a coronavirus forest fire that will not stop until it finds all the human wood that it can burn.”

COVID Compared to Other Pandemics

The five well-documented influenza pandemics of the past 130 years offer some blueprint for how COVID might play out, according to Lone Simonsen, an epidemiologist and professor of population health sciences at Roskilde University in Denmark. She is an expert on the ebb and flow of such events.

While the longest global flu outbreak lasted five years, they mostly consisted of two to four waves of infection over an average of two or three years, she said. COVID is already shaping up to be among the more severe pandemics, as its second year concludes with the world in the middle of a third wave—and no end in sight...

DJ Again !!!! S T O P   T H E   S P R E A D   ! ! ! ! ! ! Vaccinations become pointless when you give up on most restrictions...maybe one major factor has to be limiting international travel-STOP IMPORTING VARIANTS !!!!!! 

Again !!! I am NOT an expert at all ! In Dutch we have a saying "dweilen met de kraan open" , mopping the floor while the tap is still open....To translate it to the wildfire...we are adding water AND fuel....that is not working !

I do notice a "sense of realism" in this story; living with the virus is living with a pandemic for years...There are better options !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923530-cidrap-breakthrough-covid-19-affected-19-of-residents-at-a-nursing-home[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923530-cidrap-breakthrough-covid-19-affected-19-of-residents-at-a-nursing-home ; A COVID-19 outbreak in a French nursing home—where 95% of residents but only a third of healthcare workers were fully vaccinated— infected nearly a quarter of residents and 12% of staff, finds a study today in JAMA Network Open.

-

The outbreak occurred in a 77-bed nursing home in Biscarrosse, a town in southwest France, several weeks after the vast majority of residents received two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in January and February.

Of 74 total residents (mean age, 87.8 years; 22.2% men), 70 residents (95%) had received two doses of vaccine at least 14 days before the outbreak, while 2 (2.7%) had received one dose.
-

All infections were attributed to the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha (B117) variant. "To our knowledge, this is the first outbreak due to the B.1.1.7 COVID-19 variant described among individuals well vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2," the researchers wrote. They also noted an April 30 study in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report on an outbreak of an earlier SARS-CoV-2 variant in a US nursing home where 90% of residents were fully vaccinated.

and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923534-vaccinating-people-who-have-had-covid-19-why-doesn%E2%80%99t-natural-immunity-count-in-the-us[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923534-vaccinating-people-who-have-had-covid-19-why-doesn%E2%80%99t-natural-immunity-count-in-the-us ; “Many of us were saying let’s use [the vaccine] to save lives, not to vaccinate people already immune,” says Marty Makary, a professor of health policy and management at Johns Hopkins University.

Still, the CDC instructed everyone, regardless of previous infection, to get fully vaccinated as soon as they were eligible: natural immunity “varies from person to person” and “experts do not yet know how long someone is protected,” the agency stated on its website in January.6 By June, a Kaiser Family Foundation survey found that 57% of those previously infected got vaccinated.7

As more US employers, local governments, and educational institutions issue vaccine mandates that make no exception for those who have had covid-19,8 questions remain about the science and ethics of treating this group of people as equally vulnerable to the virus—or as equally threatening to those vulnerable to covid-19—and to what extent politics has played a role.

DJ People that did get SARS-1 in 2003 seem to still have immunity against SARS-2/CoViD-19...But the risks of "getting natural immunity" are much to high...Yet vaccines thenselves show to be far from perfect...See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/923515-cell-rep-profiling-cd8-t-cell-epitopes-of-covid-19-convalescents-reveals-reduced-cellular-immune-responses-to-sars-cov-2-variants[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/923515-cell-rep-profiling-cd8-t-cell-epitopes-of-covid-19-convalescents-reveals-reduced-cellular-immune-responses-to-sars-cov-2-variants ; Cellular immunity is important in determining the disease severity of COVID-19 patients. However, current understanding of SARS-CoV-2 epitopes mediating cellular immunity is limited. 

Here we apply T-Scan, a recently developed method, to identify CD8+ T cell epitopes from COVID-19 patients of four major HLA-A alleles. 

Several identified epitopes are conserved across human coronaviruses, which might mediate pre-existing cellular immunity to SARS-CoV-2. 

 In addition, we identify and validate four epitopes that were mutated in the newly circulating variants, including the Delta variant. 


The mutations significantly reduce T cell responses to the epitope peptides in convalescent and vaccinated samples.

 We further determine the crystal structure of HLA-A02:01/HLA-A24:02 in complex with the epitope KIA_S/NYN_S, respectively, which reveals the importance of K417 and L452 of the spike protein for binding to HLA. 

Our data suggest that evading cellular immunity might contribute to the increased transmissibility and disease severity associated with the new SARS-CoV-2 variants.

DJ Bad news for natural immunity ! (However [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/923508-immunity-a-sars-cov-2-antibody-broadly-neutralizes-sars-related-coronaviruses-and-variants-by-coordinated-recognition-of-a-virus-vulnerable-site[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/923508-immunity-a-sars-cov-2-antibody-broadly-neutralizes-sars-related-coronaviruses-and-variants-by-coordinated-recognition-of-a-virus-vulnerable-site may indicate better news...study still going on...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021?view=stream DJ-Other sort of UK statistics-in latest post UK deaths +22,6%....cases +1,1% (worldometers has cases -9%, deaths +25% - may be interesting puzzle to see why UK.gov comes up with such different numbers...) 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/923500-int-j-legal-med-fatal-outcome-of-sars-cov-2-infection-b1-1-7-in-a-4-year-old-child[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/923500-int-j-legal-med-fatal-outcome-of-sars-cov-2-infection-b1-1-7-in-a-4-year-old-child ;
This case report highlights details of a case of critical acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with B1.1.7 variant in a 4-year-old girl who died due to pneumonia and pulmonary hemorrhage. The girl was referred to our University ECMO Center from another University hospital for veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO). In the clinical course, superinfection with Pseudomonas aeruginosa was detected.

 Virological evidence of herpes simplex sepsis was also obtained in blood samples on her day of death. Transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in lung tissue. Postmortem computed tomography showed pulmonary hemorrhage with inhomogeneous density values in both lungs. Lung tissue showed no ventilated areas. 

Autopsy revealed a massively congested lung with evidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and pneumonia with multiple abscesses. Histopathology showed a mixture of diffuse alveolar injury with hyaline membranes, massive hemorrhage, and bronchopneumonia with multiple granulocytic abscesses. Cardiac examination revealed pericarditis. Suspicion of myocarditis or myocardial infarction could not be confirmed microscopically. 

To our knowledge, this is the first autopsy-based case report of the death of a previously healthy child due to the new variant B 1.1.7 in Germany.

DJ Children become more and more at risk for SARS-2...this girl was just 4 y/o !

-Dr. John Campbell, getting of the road....[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUoWSfN3xo8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUoWSfN3xo8 "When to be exposed" ? Info under the video...

DJ Avoid being exposed !!!! Just like in climate "change" there are options in how to deal with pandemics ! "Living with the virus" because BoJo did not stop importing Delta from India in time was criminal and stupid ! "Living with bad leaders" is almost as impossible as living "with an ever lasting pandemic" !!!!

On "natural immunity" [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/923515-cell-rep-profiling-cd8-t-cell-epitopes-of-covid-19-convalescents-reveals-reduced-cellular-immune-responses-to-sars-cov-2-variants[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/923515-cell-rep-profiling-cd8-t-cell-epitopes-of-covid-19-convalescents-reveals-reduced-cellular-immune-responses-to-sars-cov-2-variants ; Cellular immunity is important in determining the disease severity of COVID-19 patients. However, current understanding of SARS-CoV-2 epitopes mediating cellular immunity is limited. Here we apply T-Scan, a recently developed method, to identify CD8+ T cell epitopes from COVID-19 patients of four major HLA-A alleles. Several identified epitopes are conserved across human coronaviruses, which might mediate pre-existing cellular immunity to SARS-CoV-2. In addition, we identify and validate four epitopes that were mutated in the newly circulating variants, including the Delta variant. The mutations significantly reduce T cell responses to the epitope peptides in convalescent and vaccinated samples. We further determine the crystal structure of HLA-A02:01/HLA-A24:02 in complex with the epitope KIA_S/NYN_S, respectively, which reveals the importance of K417 and L452 of the spike protein for binding to HLA. 

Our data suggest that evading cellular immunity might contribute to the increased transmissibility and disease severity associated with the new SARS-CoV-2 variants.

DJ Still sticking to an idea of "herd immunity" is anti-science !!!! It was anti-science from the start !!! In animals corona virusses often meant killing all the animals as the only option to control the outbreak !!!

This may not be the first corona-virus pandemic, we may have seen one in 1880/1890...but then both the speed of transport for the virus was much lower (proberbly linked to railway lines...maybe some river transport routes...) and the number of hosts was much smaller and less concentrated !!!

To still allow virus to fly around the globe high speed, to arrive in mega cities with further high speed transport is beyond stupid !!!

Why would this CoViD-19 all of a sudden become milder ? So far the indications are it is getting worse-not better ! Wishfull thinking is NOT science !!!

It looks like "learning the hard way" with "booster vaccines" buying again some time...till more evasive variants show up...

Just like in climate "change/collapse" the "ruling elite" does not want to face the facts; this pandemic is getting worse because of an insane (lack of) strategy !!!

But again-I am NOT an expert, do not claim to be neutral...this is just my opinion etc...

-Other news; 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/earthquake-swarm-la-palma-if-blows-wipes-out-us-east-coast-via-tsunami[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/earthquake-swarm-la-palma-if-blows-wipes-out-us-east-coast-via-tsunami DJ...Nicholas became a hurricane...bringing lots of rain again to the southern US...other storms just a matter of time-peak of hurricane season. I do not like the seismic activity [url]https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/[/url] or https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ worldwide...

There is lots of uncertainty on how strong earthquakes can get...If HT story on a mega tsunami has a point; yes we may have had mega-tsunami's in the past...Events that happen once every 10,000 years may "escape from our radar"....

Also [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/china-warships-transited-near-alaska-beijing-newspaper-also-reports-pla-fighter-jets-to-be-sent-over-taiwan-economic-sanctions-imposed-blockade-of-island[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/china-warships-transited-near-alaska-beijing-newspaper-also-reports-pla-fighter-jets-to-be-sent-over-taiwan-economic-sanctions-imposed-blockade-of-island HT did publish non-sense of the Chinese Army building up in Canada to invade the US....However China may have red lines for Taiwan...

What a lot of US publications keep missing is Russia and China are even more linked by now then NATO is...Just like Russian interventions in former Yugoslavia, South Caucasus, Crimea, Syria, Russia and China most likely are looking at "joint actions" in a larger "theatre"....Afghanistan, Ukraine may not be the only "action zones". 

From the South China Sea to the Middle East and Africa Russia and China have a number of relevant allies-Pakistan, Iran, Turkey may be among them...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/bulletin-atlanta-federal-reserve-cuts-gdp-forecast-by-41[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/bulletin-atlanta-federal-reserve-cuts-gdp-forecast-by-41 DJ-HT is blaming biden for things going wrong-still supporting trump...I do not agree with that view. 

However the US-in this pandemic-but not because of the pandemic-is further decreasing in a global role...China soon may be able to export hundreds of millions of vaccines, teams of experts to deal with this pandemic. Russia is taking over the US role in global weapon sales...

US sanctions on EU countries for North Stream buying Russian energy, EU still sticking to some sort of Iran-deal, the US-not Iran-did break...do damage the US. 

September 26 will see elections in Germany-the main motor for Europe (with Brexit resulting in Germany becoming an even more important player). Germany wants trade with Russia, China, Iran...

"Living with the virus" may be an US/UK strategy...In that way the pandemic even more widens the gap between the "Anglo Saxon world" and the rest...

This pandemic may underline differences in what countries believe should be a governments role...With many countries going for a much stronger role for governments to deal with the many crises we face...less "market-liberalism" that is seen by many as one of the basic problems causing these crises...

-Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNkYZ91d8Lc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNkYZ91d8Lc Godley & Creme (former 10CC) - 5 o'clock in the morning...1977

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2021 at 10:36pm

This is the way I look at it ,

I'v had the Flu 3 times in my life,1st two times I was ill the last I was really sick for 10 days then it took me about a month to get fit,after that I decided to have a flu shot,I know it won't stop me from getting it again,

I also know that if I do catch it I won't be as sick as if I didn't get a shot......

I know that when we open up I could catch covid,I'm hoping that because I'm vaccinated I won't get really sick,that's what my common sense tells me.

I don't like the idea of mandates........

But I don't like the idea of  thousands of my taxpayer dollars ,being spent ,looking after someone,who for the sake of $20 could save  themselves and others a lot of pain an suffering.......

Take care all 😷😉💉

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2021 at 2:18pm

The thing is Carbon, that the Covid unvaccinated also pay taxes, and plenty of them. In our family we pay tons of taxes and we're never ill. We are also very unlikely to get a severe case of Covid, but if we do then that's what we've paid our money for. 

If you are going to mandate Covid injections then what else are you going to mandate? There are many reasons why a person ends up in the hospital and most of them, one way or another, are avoidable. Our petty bureaucrats need to stop using Covid as an excuse boss everyone else around. Have a vaccine if you want one, or don't, but people need to stop moaning about it and stop telling everyone else what to do.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2021 at 9:40pm

DJ,

In this pandemic vaccines are presented the way wind turbines and solar power, electric cars are presented in the climate "discussion"; as a solution while they are not !

Most countries limit the "push" on vaccinations-simply because good info, availability, allready results in over 80% of the 12+ age group takes the vaccine...on a voluntary basis. 

We may see vaccine "passports" here in NL (for restaurants...even outside, but not for gyms...not very logic att all-giving up the 1,5 m/6 feet social distance is crazy....) but some very pro-vax experts are against it. Just because we did get allready so far on a voluntary basis and the vaccines are far from perfect...

I think vaccine passports may have some use-can be a tool-but again the way they are used makes the strategy not working. Less social distance for the vaccinated with at best 50% protection against infection is just as stupid as vaccination for reopening...

Trying to stop the bath overrun by closing the cold water but opening the warm water....

Both some "embedded experts" and lots of "politics" are putting up a show...playing with people and emotions...They are not working based on science...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/09/14/weekly-coronavirus-figures-fall-11-child-infections-4[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/09/14/weekly-coronavirus-figures-fall-11-child-infections-4 Yes infections go up in unvaccinated-quite a lot of them are under 12 ! Can not get vaccinated here-or in most other countries.

On vaccination [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/09/01/half-unvaccinated-covid-patients-hospital-ethnic-minorities-report[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/09/01/half-unvaccinated-covid-patients-hospital-ethnic-minorities-report better strategies to reach people who do not speak the language, with fear of needles, or with believes that "limit science"..may bring the vaccination ratio up to 90%+

In the US vaccines became political...maybe the only country where it became this political. And that is not helping...

Another note on further reopening proberbly increasing asymptomatic CoViD but it will also bring back flu season, other contagious diseases-that have had less chance to spread so far...Hospital are not ready for it...

Long Covid is a growing problem often ignored by politics...healthcare does not have easy solutions for them...

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table  Cases now at -9%, deaths at -6% worldwide...77 countries report increase of cases. The trends are moving in the wrong direction. 

With less testing, an increase of asymptomatic spread-resulting in mutations that can become variants that may be better in evading immunity-is a major risk. 

September 14 did see the US (under)reporting 142,059 cases, 1,934 deaths...US cases -4%, deaths +16% !

In cases Turkey now at #2 with 27,802 cases being reported, (and 276 deaths)-trends for Turkey cases +9% deaths -10%  (cases+ deaths- means start of a wave, cases-, deaths + end of a wave). 

Philippines is one of many other countries with cases +, deaths - (here cases +10%, deaths -2% moving towards the peak both numbers will be in the +).

Israel yesterday reported 32 deaths...(NL reported 10 with double the population). Israeli deaths -9% but last week 207, this week 188 deaths = 20 deaths per million this week is a lot !

In South America (former Dutch) Suriname cases +55%, deaths +36%...small population but most of South America showing both cases and deaths going down...(Uruguay, Venezuela a.o. few still in the increase...)

Canada cases +11%, deaths +44%...(last week 135, this week 195 = 5 deaths per million of population this week). 

So-DJ-numbers indicate we are moving to a low point-very likely to see cases going up again later on...With even less restrictions other diseases (flu a lot of similarity in symptoms...) also will show up. Health care exhausted and demotivated, out of capacity...outlook is bad.

Just like in the climate discussion science agrees on there is a problem. But on what to do next science is very divided. The choosen road is vaccinations-and (again) YES vaccinations do a very good job in limiting burder on healthcare, limiting severe/ICU cases...a lot of hospital cases are in the unvaccinated. 

But also reopening while variants are spreading (most Delta-better in evading immunity allready) and alse seeing the limits of vaccines is (more then) undoing the gains made by vaccinations...Air travel transporting variants over the globe is insane....

Just like in climate change politics is failing to see how bad a pandemic can get...This pandemic very likely to become worse then the Spanish Flu...  

-Some twitter news;

[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing from june 11 !!!!; India Vlag van India doctors have been sharing concerns that #DeltaVariant is more severe / affecting more kids. Singapore Vlag van Singapore MOH is also warning it is affecting children a lot.

DJ Warnings being ignored...It is very likely China did publish studies in the early stages of this pandemic in Chineese...but "global science" wanted them to be in English.

[url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 ; We're acting like everything's ok when we're having 1,000 deaths every week.' Epidemiologist Dr Deepti Gurdasani fears the government's Covid winter plan 'doesn't match the seriousness of the situation we're in'.

DJ What kind of "new normal" is acceptable and for who ? The poor, most urban, population face much higher risks then the rich elite that has long vacations in far away destinations...10% of the people doing air travel is doing 80% of the flying...

[url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ a lot of the info in Dutch, a.o. the disinformation spread by (our) government(s). Further increasing vaccinations will NOT bring "herd immunity" so you need restrictions ! In a re-tweet; So basically, you are required to show a covid certificate if you're going to an event/concert in a lecture hall that can contain 200 people, but not if you're going to the same place to attend a lecture as part of your course. The virus of course recognises these are different.

DJ Vaccine passports can be a usefull tool-but if you do not have any realistic plan on how to use it it becomes pointless...

[url]https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD[/url] or https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhDOnce surgeries get cancelled the health system isn’t at risk of being overrun, it is overrun.

DJ Wordgames do not help, blaming policies do not help...it is a governments job to govern ! And they are not doing that in many countries !

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/923613-betadine-antiseptic-being-gargled-despite-little-to-no-evidence-it-treats-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/923613-betadine-antiseptic-being-gargled-despite-little-to-no-evidence-it-treats-covid-19 ; I could find no evidence that people are ingesting Betadine so changed the title to reflect that there was some evidence of discussion of gargling with it. (There is an OTC mouthwash.) The Forbes article referenced so politically toxic that I was saddened to see that someone who is mature and educated wrote it.

DJ, I gargle my mouthwash-but do not swallow it. If you gargle with water it can also help clean up some "unwanted activity" in the upper airways...Dr.J.C. (I think) had some (good) info on Sao Paulo-Brazil- University working on a moutwash helping to limit infections...The other part of the quote reflects how poisoned US "press" has become...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923429-china-139-covid-19-cases-in-putian-xiamen-quanzhou-city-in-4-days-fujian-province-september-10-nhc-sending-working-group?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923429-china-139-covid-19-cases-in-putian-xiamen-quanzhou-city-in-4-days-fujian-province-september-10-nhc-sending-working-group?view=stream ; DJ-China is going for zero-Covid, like New Zealand, some parts of Australia...China trends cases +49%, last week reporting 185 cases, this week 276 cases (and if I get that right a-symptomatic positive test cases not counted as a case ? Number also includes cases stopped at airports ?).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-emerging-diseases-and-other-health-threats/923045-india-12-year-old-boy-dies-of-nipah-virus-infection-in-kozhikode-central-team-rushed-to-kerala-11-symptomatic-contacts?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-emerging-diseases-and-other-health-threats/923045-india-12-year-old-boy-dies-of-nipah-virus-infection-in-kozhikode-central-team-rushed-to-kerala-11-symptomatic-contacts?view=stream latest;  Mangaluru, Sep 14: Deputy commissioner (DC) Dr K V Rajendra urged public not to panic regarding Nipah virus in the district.

Addressing media on Tuesday September 14, he said, “It is said that a Karwar-based microbiologist, who works in Goa, self-reported suspicion of being infected with Nipah virus. His sample was sent to National Institute of Virology, Pune on Monday. Result is awaited. He has been isolated.

“He works where RT-PCR kits are prepared. He had fever and headache after he got drenched in rain. Under anxiety, he searched in Google and with the phobia, he got himself admitted at Manipal and then later he was shifted to Wenlock. The district administration cannot neglect when oneself gets admitted to the hospital. Hence, we sent his sample and the report awaited. He had no symptoms or direct contact. Any kind of SOP breach was not reported,” he said.

-

Okieman Comment: I have seen a number of articles concerning this. This is the only one I have seen that mentions him being a microbiologist. Most of them seem to play down the chance that this is anything. That said,....they did test him and send off the sample. It may just be an incident of the "worried well", which I suspect we all have some experience with by now in this pandemic. But, there is a part of me that wonders "If this is loose, will they tell anyone? And if it is loose, what is the consequence of everyone knowing it is loose?" So, I sincerely hope this is just someone that is over concerned and they are being extra careful by testing him.

DJ September 10 report: All contacts have now tested negative at least once, and only 7 still have fever:

So it looks like we escaped from a Nipah-viral disease outbreak this time...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923617-cidrap-kids-covid-19-cases-continue-to-rise-in-us[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923617-cidrap-kids-covid-19-cases-continue-to-rise-in-us ; The American Academy of Pediatrics' (AAP's) latest numbers on US pediatric COVID-19 cases once again show a significant rise in confirmed cases in patients under 18.
More than 243,000 child COVID-19 cases were reported from Sep 2 to Sep 9, representing 28.9% of weekly reported US COVID-19 cases, the second highest weekly total for pediatric cases in the pandemic.
"After declining in early summer, child cases have increased exponentially, with nearly 500,000 cases in the past 2 weeks," the AAP said. Children represent 15.5% of all US COVID-19 cases

DJ India warned children can get severe illness from Delta as early as april this year...Indonesia, Israel warned...later on Scotland warned...now the US is warning-but in NL schools are open with no masks, no social distance, poor ventilation and Dutch CDC still claiming children get less severe illness...The UK imported Delta from the India-region this year april, may-like many other countries-transporting "Delta" all over the planet ! We did not see a stop in international airtravel after the Wuhan lockdown january 2020....

Stupidity rules ! Stupid kills !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923616-cidrap-biden-gathers-support-for-global-pandemic-summit[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923616-cidrap-biden-gathers-support-for-global-pandemic-summitYesterday, President Biden invited world leaders to a virtual summit on ending the pandemic, with a goal of vaccinating at least 70% of the world by next September, according to the Washington Post.
At a World Health Organization (WHO) briefing today, health officials—including several from African groups—welcomed the partnership, but said there are urgent steps countries can take now to free up more vaccine doses for countries that don't have enough access.

Summit goal: vaccinate 70% of world over the next year

In the invitation to world leaders, Biden called on governments, international groups, and philanthropic and nongovernmental organizations to commit to ending the pandemic by taking concrete actions and setting targets, according to the Post.
Aside from fully vaccinating 70% of the population by the start of next year's United Nations General Assembly—a year from now—the goals also address the supply of diagnostic supplies, oxygen, and medical equipment.

DJ; So NOT stopping international variant air travel, NOT stopping spread in public spaces.."vaccines will save us" ....please !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923611-cidrap-covid-19-scan-autoantibodies-and-covid-19-covid-19-in-gabon[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923611-cidrap-covid-19-scan-autoantibodies-and-covid-19-covid-19-in-gabon ; Hospitalized COVID-19 patients were more likely to have autoantibodies, or self-attacking antibodies, than those without COVID-19, according to a study today in Nature Communications.

-

"It's possible that, in the course of a poorly controlled SARS-CoV-2 infection—in which the virus hangs around for too long while an intensifying immune response continues to break viral particles into pieces—the immune system sees bits and pieces of the virus that it hadn't previously seen," said senior author PJ Utz, MD, in a Stanford Medicine press release. "If any of these viral pieces too closely resemble one of our own proteins, this could trigger autoantibody production."
Vaccinations, he adds, cause significantly less inflammation in patients than SARS-CoV-2 infection.

and on Gabon-Africa; The researchers suggest that the lower rates of severe illness may be due to the country's smaller number of older and more vulnerable people. However, as a related commentary by Igho Ofotokun, MD, and Anandi N. Sheth, MD, points out, these findings must be taken into context with its early timeframe in the pandemic, the country's limited COVID-19 testing, and the study's single-site design.
"The silver lining in this report and the African COVID-19 experience is that the window of opportunity still exists to protect one of the most vulnerable regions of the world from the catastrophes of this pandemic through massive and rapid vaccination," Ofotokun and Sheth conclude.

DJ Overreaction of the immunity system may worsen the disease-but how this works was not fully understood. One reason Africa may have less (severe) cases is a young population...severe disease (at least before Delta) was most seen in older age groups.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923607-beavers-in-mongolia-test-covid-positive[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923607-beavers-in-mongolia-test-covid-positiveAt least seven beavers in Mongolia have tested positive for Covid-19, the country's National Centre for Zoonotic Diseases (NCZD) said.

"Workers of the Beaver Breeding Centre at the Environmental Department of the capital Ulan Bator tested positive for the Covid-19 in August. After that, the Delta variant were detected in seven beavers," Nyamdorj Tsogbadrakh, director of the NCZD, told local media on Saturday.

It is the first time that Covid-19 has been detected in animals in Mongolia, Xinhua news agency quoted Tsogbadrakh as saying.

The infected beavers showed symptoms of cough, runny nose, sticky eyes and others, he said, adding that the animals have already recovered from the disease.

DJ The bad news is beavers can catch CoViD...just like some deers in North America...spread in wild animals may produce new variants, spread in non-human hosts giving the virus even more room then it allready did get due to bad policies...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/923546-nasal-spray-company-pushes-cdc-fda-to-accept-its-claims-to-help-treat-covid[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/923546-nasal-spray-company-pushes-cdc-fda-to-accept-its-claims-to-help-treat-covid ; With his job approval rating plunging and the Delta variant of Covid19 still raging, President Biden this evening laid out new directives—including vaccine mandates for companies with 100 or more employees—to try to get the virus under control.
For a group of companies and medical researchers scattered around the world, the speech was yet another disappointment in what has been a year full of them. To them, Biden's speech represented a missed opportunity to promote a simple, inexpensive and widely available tool for dealing with the virus: nasal sprays.

How can nasal sprays help combat COVID 19? The virus and its variants infect patients primarily by adhering to the nasal membrane as the original source of infection, explains Nathan Jones, Chief Executive Officer of Xlear, the American Fork, Utah-based maker of nasal sprays as well as an array of dental care products...

DJ New ways of vaccination may increase the willingness to accept vaccines (as a form of medication). We will see booster vaccines, this pandemic will be here in 2022...So high time to see mouth wash, nasal spray etc. taking serious as new ways to increase protection. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/923585-chem-phys-binding-of-sars-cov-2-covid-19-and-sars-cov-to-human-ace2-identifying-binding-sites-and-consequences-on-ace2-stiffness[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/923585-chem-phys-binding-of-sars-cov-2-covid-19-and-sars-cov-to-human-ace2-identifying-binding-sites-and-consequences-on-ace2-stiffness ; The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (COVID-19) that is causing the massive global pandemic exhibits similar human cell invasion mechanism as the coronavirus SARS-CoV, which had significantly lower fatalities. 

The cell membrane protein Angiotensin-converting-enzyme 2 (ACE2) is the initiation point for both the coronavirus infections in humans. 

Here, we model the molecular interactions and mechanical properties of ACE2 with both SARS-CoV and COVID-19 spike protein receptor-binding domains (RBD). 

We report that the COVID-19 spike RBD interacts with ACE2 more strongly and at only two protein residues, as compared to multi-residue interaction of the SARS-CoV. 

Although both coronaviruses stiffen the ACE2, the impact of COVID-19 is six times larger, which points towards differences in the severity of the reported respiratory distress. 

The recognition of specific residues of ACE2 attachments to coronaviruses is important as the residues suggest potential sites of intervention to inhibit attachment and subsequent entry of the COVID-19 into human host cells.

DJ Understanding how CoViD19 does start-how the infection works-enables way to stop the infection. 

I did not see a new video from Dr. John Campbell-but lots of other good video's...Both hurricanes/storms and earthquakes seem to be very active. US-China relations are even getting worse...

Time for Music ! [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgtyuUyJjW4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgtyuUyJjW4 "Summer of Soul" 1969...great music...crazy story !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2021 at 12:14pm

DJ, 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/earthquake-swarm-la-palma-if-blows-wipes-out-us-east-coast-via-tsunami[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/earthquake-swarm-la-palma-if-blows-wipes-out-us-east-coast-via-tsunami sounds very alarming...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumbre_Vieja_tsunami_hazard[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumbre_Vieja_tsunami_hazardLater research has debated whether the tsunami would still have a significant size far away from La Palma and whether the collapse is likely to take place in a single failure, with evidence indicating that most collapses in the Canary Islands took place as multistage events that are not as effective at creating tsunamis.

DJ [url]https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/lapalma/sep2021seismic-crisis/current-activity.html[/url] or https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/lapalma/sep2021seismic-crisis/current-activity.html  and [url]https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/Map/zoom.php?key=53&typ=euro#2[/url] or https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/Map/zoom.php?key=53&typ=euro#2 may indicate there is "limited risk"...for an eruption-possibly causing (most likely) limited landslides...

Still it is something to keep an eye on...

-[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpJxUzSIvSk&t=184s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpJxUzSIvSk&t=184s In2thinair warning for several storms...possibly making landfall in the US. He has good info-in his video-on how many storms did make landfall in the US last 1,5 year...

DJ-Disasters are part of history. Some once in ten thousend year events may seem unrealistic, unthinkable...yet they may have happened less then 10,000 years...leaving hardly any evidence...

It is good to realize how fragile our existence is, to enjoy the good moments, be glad with the good memories...

Stay safe !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2021 at 2:49pm

I've been watching La Palma for years. It's a fascinating situation. I'm a big fan of Dr Bill McGuire, Professor of Geophysical Hazards at University College London. In his book "A guide to the end of the world" he dedicates a whole chapter to mega tsunami and in particular to the collapse of the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma in the Canary Islands. 

What I like about this particular sword of Damocles is that there is literally nothing man can do to influence the situation, much like a huge earthquake, we can't control it and I find that strangely reassuring.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2021 at 9:34pm

KiwiMum, "we" can try to limit possible damage....From taking away rubble-so it can not slide into the ocean, with risks of unbalancing the volcano...To even drill into the volcano as a sort of velve...pressure release. You can park-in theory-all the ships of the globe in a wide circle around such a volcano-so at least some of the wave energy goes into lifting those ships...

But all put together-in a worst case scenario-those actions would be as good as pointless...

DJ-I was thinking myself on why I did write my last posting. Maybe because this pandemic is a-sort of-1 in a 100 year event ? With climate change increasing pandemic risks high speed ? 

Maybe also to make clear there are (much) worse risks, worries, than this pandemic. Once in a 1,000 year to once every 10 million year events are real. It is very, very unlikely we will see them...basically we do not realy know. 

On the risks of a M10+ earthquake there is a lot of discussion. [url]https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/875/are-richter-magnitude-10-earthquakes-possible[/url] or https://earthscience.stackexchange.com/questions/875/are-richter-magnitude-10-earthquakes-possible ; The relationship is plausibly log-linear (in accordance with G-R); if you accept that the relationship will hold up to higher magnitudes, you would estimate the probability of a M10 event in this location at once every 30,000 years.

-

This is rather scary because it suggests that there is about a 1:100 chance of a M10 earthquake anywhere in the world, in any given year. Note that I plotted the data for magnitude x to x.9 at the location of x - which tends to underestimate things a little bit. Note also that at the extreme end of very large earthquakes (8 and above), the data looks like it might be deviating from the straight line - but there are not enough data points to draw any firm conclusions about the shape.

There are several other caveats. First - the assumption that the model can be extrapolated can be challenged: a particular fault may not be constructed in such a way as to store the energy required for an M10 event, as it will always release the energy before it gets there (and there may be a "stress shadow" effect, which says that after a big earthquake, the chance of another big one is temporarily reduced because stresses have been relieved; this is why this model can only be used "over a long period", and does not accurately reflect the risk of earthquake in the next five years).

Still - one percent.

DJ There is a limit to earthquake strength...proberbly somewhere between M(agnitude) 10 and 11 if you exclude Earth colliding with an asteroid. The strongest quakes in recent history were M9 to M9,5 but that most likely is not the strongest possible...

What is the link to this pandemic ? 

If you would have asked me january 1 - 2020 how likely it was we would have a pandemic at the scale of the Spanish Flu or worse before 2030 I proberbly would have told you the chance most likely was less then 1%...

In history pandemics often are related with (major) wars, large scale social unrest...Of course there were known risk factors early 2020. Lots of international (air) travel spreading potential diseases proberbly one major factor. 

Another major risk was the number of animals kept-the number of human contacts with diseases in those animals. 

What made the picture unclear was we were expecting flu to be the main risk. Like in wars we-somehow-start with copying the last war. We did not expect corona virus to get this much out of control. Both SARS-1 and MERS were controllable...

We were wrong !

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Global (under)reported cases september 15 was 563,548 of wich 164,509 were from the US. With 10,217 deaths reported worldwide of wich 2,282 were from the US. The UK reported 30,597 cases, 201 deaths...maybe BoJo can live with that kind of suffering...

Looking at trends; UK cases as far as reported -18%, deaths +4%. US cases +0,9%, deaths +22% ( 9,265 last week, this week 11,263 -the US did see 34 deaths per million of its population this week ! UK 14, Israel 20, NL just 2....)

In todays trend Israeli cases +15%, deaths +9%...even with booster vaccines 

-Flutrackers latest posts ;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/923706-protection-of-bnt162b2-vaccine-booster-against-covid-19-in-israel[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/923706-protection-of-bnt162b2-vaccine-booster-against-covid-19-in-israelAt least 12 days after the booster dose, the rate of confirmed infection was lower in the booster group than in the nonbooster group by a factor of 11.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.4 to 12.3); the rate of severe illness was lower by a factor of 19.5 (95% CI, 12.9 to 29.5). In a secondary analysis, the rate of confirmed infection at least 12 days after vaccination was lower than the rate after 4 to 6 days by a factor of 5.4 (95% CI, 4.8 to 6.1).

DJ You can increase protection but if you also increase spread/exposure, risk for getting infected, cases still will go up...certainly with Delta(+) !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/preparedness-ab/923705-increased-risk-of-health-professionals-to-feel-traumatized-during-the-covid-19-pandemic[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/preparedness-ab/923705-increased-risk-of-health-professionals-to-feel-traumatized-during-the-covid-19-pandemic ; The high-PTSS profile demonstrated worse psychological scores (global psychological distress, somatization, depression, and anxiety) and worse quality of life (physical, psychological, social, and environmental) with moderate magnitudes. Small but significant predictors of the high-PTSS profile included sociodemographic characteristics and COVID-19 related experiences, thoughts, and perceptions. Most individuals who experienced a traumatic event were not in the high-PTSS profile. For those who were, however, psychological and quality of life measures were much worse. During the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, several characteristics emerged as risks to report trauma.

DJ HCW-ers have been working in crisis mode for over a year-even if the pandemic would stop now-other care would put extreme pressure on healthcare for the coming 18-24 months...And politics looks the other way...Health Care is getting closer to crash. With less people dealing with wave after wave on top of other care...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/923704-limit-of-detection-in-different-matrices-of-19-commercially-available-rapid-antigen-tests-for-the-detection-of-sars-cov-2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/923704-limit-of-detection-in-different-matrices-of-19-commercially-available-rapid-antigen-tests-for-the-detection-of-sars-cov-2 ;DJ these tests are not "the best"...(But in NL news do often detect positive cases-may over report positive cases...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/923703-serological-evidence-of-bat-sars-related-coronavirus-infection-in-humans-china-8-january-2018[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/923703-serological-evidence-of-bat-sars-related-coronavirus-infection-in-humans-china-8-january-2018 ; LETTER

Received: 21 November 2017 / Accepted: 8 January 2018

Ó Wuhan Institute of Virology, CAS and Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2018

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During the SARS outbreak investigation, epidemiolog- ical evidence of a zoonotic origin of SARS-CoV was identified (Xu et al. 2004). Isolation of SARS-related coronavirus (SARSr-CoVs) from masked palm civets and the detection of SARS-CoV infection in humans working at wet markets where civets were sold suggested that masked palm civets could serve as a source of human infection (Guan et al. 2003). Subsequent work identified genetically diverse SARSr-CoVs in Chinese horseshoe bats (Rhinolo- phus sinicus) in a county of Yunnan Province, China and provided strong evidence that bats are the natural reservoir of SARS-CoV (Ge et al. 2013; Li et al. 2005; Yang et al.2016). Since then, diverse SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) have been detected and reported in bats in different regions globally (Hu et al. 2015). Importantly, SARSr-CoVs that use the SARS-CoV receptor, angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) have been isolated (Ge et al.2013). These results indicate that some SARSr-CoVs may have high potential to infect human cells, without the necessity for an intermediate host. However, to date, no evidence of direct transmission of SARSr-CoVs from bats to people has been reported.

In this study, we performed serological surveillance on people who live in close proximity to caves where bats that carry diverse SARSr-CoVs roost. In October 2015, we collected serum samples from 218 residents in four villages in Jinning County, Yunnan province, China (Fig. 1A), located 1.1–6.0 km from two caves (Yanzi and Shitou). We have been conducting longitudinal molecular surveillance of bats for CoVs in these caves since 2011 and have found that they are inhabited by large numbers of bats includingRhinolophus spp., a major reservoir of SARSr-CoVs. This region was not involved in the 2002–2003 SARS outbreaks and none of the subjects exhibited any evident respiratory illness during sampling.
...

https://www.ecohealthalliance.org/wp...nica-SARSr.pdf

DJ In general corona virus diseases (CoViD) was a well known problem in animals for decades. We did not translate SARS-1, MERS into seeing CoViD as a potential pandemic problem for humans...Underestimated the risks. Overestimated the ways to limit potential outbreaks.

See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/923702-a-strategy-to-assess-spillover-risk-of-bat-sars-related-coronaviruses-in-southeast-asia-preprint[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/923702-a-strategy-to-assess-spillover-risk-of-bat-sars-related-coronaviruses-in-southeast-asia-preprint ; Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this “hidden” spillover may help target prevention programs. 

We derive biologically realistic range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. 

We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human SARSr-CoV seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that ~400,000 people (median: ~50,000) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in South and Southeast Asia. 

These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...359v1.full.pdf

DJ Covid19 will not be the last Corona Virus Disease spreading in humans...Risks turn out to be much higher then earlier estimated. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923696-cidrap-study-farmworkers-at-4-times-risk-of-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923696-cidrap-study-farmworkers-at-4-times-risk-of-covid-19study today in JAMA Network Open that found quadruple the risk of COVID-19 in California farmworkers reveals risk factors for current or previous SARS-CoV-2 infection in the group, including outdoor work exposures, crowded living conditions, and high body mass index (BMI).
A team led by University of California at Berkeley researchers analyzed the data of 1,107 adult farmworkers undergoing testing for COVID-19 infection and immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies at federally qualified community clinics and community sites in the Salinas Valley from Jul 16 to Nov 30, 2020.
Roughly 50,000 farmworkers live in the valley, part of Monterey County, with another 40,000 workers joining their ranks in the peak summer and fall seasons.
Mean worker age was 39.7 years, 52.5% were women, and 79.6% were overweight or obese (BMI of 25 kg/m2 or higher). Of the 1,107 farmworkers, 83.3% were born in Mexico, 63.0% were married or living with a partner, 34.3% traveled to work with non-household members, and 74.5% worked in farm fields on crops such as berries, leafy greens, and broccoli.

Greater risk than any other occupation

The rate of COVID-19 test positivity in farmworkers was four times that of the rest of the county (22% vs 6%). Of 911 workers tested for COVID-19 infection, 118 (13.0%) had positive results, while 201 of 1,058 (19.0%) undergoing antibody testing showed evidence of previous infection.
"In addition, recent studies have shown that agricultural and food workers in California experienced a 39% higher risk of all-cause death from March to October 2020 than during the same period in 2019, a greater increase than any other occupational group; for workers with Latino backgrounds, the increase in all-cause mortality was 60%," the researchers wrote.

DJ In stead of going for confrontation on vaccines it would be much wiser to decrease risks for infection. Better-less crowded-housing close to the workplace (so to decrease risk during transport) would help. From the article; Nearly all study participants said that their employer provided hand sanitizer, gloves, face coverings, handwashing stations, and information on preventing virus spread at work. But 44.7% said their employer didn't screen them for fever or COVID-19 symptoms on arrival at work.
Workers whose employer gave them information on COVID-19 prevention at work were at 41% lower risk of antibody positivity, and those who were screened for fever or symptoms at work had a 21% lower risk.

-

commentary in the same journal by Sergio Aguilar-Gaxiola, MD, PhD, of the University of California at Davis; Sarah Ramirez, PhD, MPH, of Plazita Pixley; and Edward Kissam of the Werner-Kohnstamm Family Fund, said that interventions should be tailored to mitigate multidirectional virus transmission between homes and workplaces.
"To design effective interventions for community spread, researchers must address the structural factors and social determinants of health faced by farmworkers and other historically underserved populations," they wrote.
Increasing vaccine uptake will require microtargeting, policy changes, and communication strategies that encourage ill farmworkers to seek urgent medical attention rather than reporting to work. In California, nearly 45% of farmworkers lack legal status, less than half have health insurance, and many have never visited a US healthcare facility or don't know that they're at high risk for COVID-19 infection owing to factors such as high BMI.
"In our experience, testing, self-isolation, quarantine, and vaccine uptake are often economically driven decisions based on fear of losing one's precarious employment or income in the event of infection, isolation, or quarantine," Aguilar-Gaxiola and colleagues wrote.

DJ Also in Europe "migrant workers" are doing "unwanted jobs". "Covid-19 as a disease for the unvaccinated" means lots of children are at risk, lots of migrant workers that do not speak the language, do not know the risks, and think they do not have a right on vaccines...There are a few other unvaccinated groups; orthodox religious groups-but if their leaders are willing to accept vaccinations the rest will follow (Israel has seen it happen.) And yes-there is a small group of "deniers"...in the US in part in republicans...In most countries this pandemic is not such a political battlefield however !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923694-cidrap-global-covid-19-cases-show-substantial-drop[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923694-cidrap-global-covid-19-cases-show-substantial-drop ; For the first time in more than 2 months, weekly global COVID-19 cases dropped substantially, as cases decline in recent hot spots, including India and Japan, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday in its latest update.
All of the world's regions saw declines, but nearly 4 million new cases and more than 62,000 deaths were reported. Maria Van Kerkhove, PhD, the WHO's technical lead for COVID-19, said on Twitter yesterday that the levels are still far too high, especially when the world has the tools to prevent infections and deaths.

Sharp rises in some countries

The Americas region reported the steepest decline in cases, followed by Southeast Asia and the Middle East. And though deaths dropped overall, the fatality level rose last week in the African region, up 7% over the week before.
The five countries that reported the most cases last week were the United States, the United Kingdom, India, Iran, and Turkey.
Few countries reported sharp increases, except for Nigeria, where illnesses were up 90%, and Ecuador, where cases rose 72% compared with the week before. Cuba and the Philippines reported modest rises, up 22% and 16% respectively.
In the recent hot spots, cases in Japan declined 46% last week, Indonesia's cases fell by 30% and US illnesses fell by 20% last week. The pace of cases in Vietnam was similar to the previous week.
Six more countries reported their first Delta (B1617.2) variant detections, putting the total at 180.

New UK data on waning vaccine protection

Public Health England yesterday published new data on waning vaccine effectiveness in people who have received two COVID-19 vaccine doses. For protection against symptomatic disease, researchers found some waning 10 weeks following the Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccines, which was most evident in older adults.
Protection against hospitalization waned somewhat 15 weeks after the second dose, especially for the AstraZeneca vaccine and mainly in risk groups. Older people who had a shorter duration of time between the two doses had greater waning compared with those who had longer intervals.
UK vaccine advisors recently recommended booster doses for adults age 50 and older and for those in certain risk groups.

DJ The trends on what is coming seems to be booster vaccines-proberbly sooner or later for all. Also more and more the idea seems to be we will still be in a (sort of) pandemic at least part of next year...Some experts warn that reopening may see more spread in vaccinated resulting in immunity evading variants...The picture I have is both testing and sequencing may be going down while (asymptomatic) spread in vaccinated may increase...Looking at statistics showing global peaks in january, april and august (Alfa/UK, Delta/India, Delta/global) the next peak will be in october-december period. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923692-cidrap-multidrug-resistant-bacteria-in-switzerland-global-flu-snapshot[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923692-cidrap-multidrug-resistant-bacteria-in-switzerland-global-flu-snapshot ; Researchers in Switzerland have identified an increase in New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase (NDM)–producing Enterobacterales, according to a report published today in Emerging Infectious Diseases.
Of the 532 carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) samples obtained from Swiss hospitals and clinics in 2019 and 2020, 141 were confirmed to be NDM-positive—accounting for more than 25% of all CPE submitted to the Swiss National Reference Center for Emerging Antibiotic Resistance (NARA). NDM enzymes are capable of conferring resistance to nearly all beta-lactam antibiotics, including carbapenems, and treatment options for infections caused by NDM-producing Enterobacterales are limited, as they frequently harbor additional resistance genes.

-

Global flu stays low, though H3N2 rising in South Asia

In a global flu update that covers the last half of August, the World Health Organization (WHO) this week said overall activity remained very low in both hemispheres, though levels continue to increase in India and Nepal. The agency included its usual caveat that flu activity and detection are likely affected by COVID-19 measures and the pandemic's impacts on surveillance.
Flu circulation in India and Nepal is dominated by H3N2. Elsewhere, locations in the Americas, including the Caribbean, Central America, and Mexico, reported sporadic influenza B cases, and parts of Africa continue to report sporadic flu cases.
Of the few respiratory specimens that were positive for flu during the end of August, 62.2% were influenza A, and of the subtyped influenza A viruses, 93.3% were H3N2. Of characterized influenza B viruses, all but two belonged to the Victoria lineage.

DJ 1.Reopening means more room for the spread of flu (etc). 2. We did see anincrease of fungul infections in Covid cases earlier, it is very likely other infections will have a chance to spread in Covid cases worldwide. 

If we are not willing to see the problem how can we find a solution ! HIV/AIDS did see an increase in (resistent) TB, CoViD-19 will result in also an increase of other co-infections, just like it did decrease the campains against polio and malaria. 

We have to make global public health a much higher global priority (and not waste zillions in wars !).

- YouTube-ZOE [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Jj8Nplg1NI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Jj8Nplg1NI weekly update on the UK. "Is the UK sleepwalking into a COVID disaster ?";

This week, Tim discusses how although cases are falling, it's interesting to observe what's driving this. ONS data confirms fully vaccinated people make up only a tiny proportion of COVID deaths and  we’ve estimated how high cases need to get in different areas before the system buckles. He also addresses the government's winter plans and what he thinks about them. 

DJ UK R0 at 0.9. In new case 1 in 3 is in the vaccinated group-with less people unvaccinated that % is going up. Just 1% of those who died was fully vaccinated.(Info 3 months old) But still several hundreds of long-covid cases PER DAY in the UK !!!

Increase was in 20-39 y/o now in the under 20 y/o age group. Discussion on (one shot) vaccination for 12+ age group and who needs third-booster-vaccine. 

Tim Spector does not expect (national) lockdowns. Other interventions (regional) may be effective enough to deal with (regional) outbreaks. 

NHS underfunded-so winter surge may see problems in hospital capacity. 

SAGE does expect severe flu-season, BMJ does not...(DJ-Lots of people still limit social exposure, "politics" can reopen-but if you can most of the public would like to limit risks...)

ZOE top 5 symptoms; 1-Runny nose 77%, 2 headache 74%, 3 Sneezing 67%, 4 Sore throat 52%, 5 Loss of smell 52% (UK GOV still not using this list !) Fever is symptom #7...but most checked-so missing lots of cases...

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPrKA5p9a_I[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nPrKA5p9a_I 

Winter hospitalizations will increase ; Eight-week scenarios for daily hospital admissions in England R = 1.1 – green, (is much more possible through a range of many different situations) R = 1.5 – blue (also likely) R = 2.0 – red (a possible outcome, but highly unlikely)

Hospitalisations likely to rise, 2,000 to 7,000 per day next month 

Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) The UK is currently experiencing high prevalence and likely entering a period of growth 

Increasing cases remain the earliest warning sign that hospital admissions are likely to rise  

Highly likely that a significant decrease in homeworking in the next few months would result in a rapid increase in hospital admissions If enacted early enough, a relatively light set of measures could be sufficient to curb sustained growth 

Imperial’s modelling ‘pessimistic scenarios’ which assume a three-year average duration of infection-induced immunity 

Does not consider any variants of concern beyond Delta 

 Peaks occurring in October to December instead of August to October 

Will not be reached without waning immunity or a novel variant emerging 

There is now evidence of waning vaccine effectiveness particularly 140 days after the second dose  

Those individuals vaccinated in late 2020 and early 2021 will have less protection in the coming months  

Third doses and booster vaccinations, which are able to reverse waning of protection, will limit the impact of waning immunity 

Policy clarification Third doses for all over 50 or at increased risk  

UK Chief Medical Officers, advised vaccination aged 12 to 15  

Co-infection of SARS-CoV-2 with other diseases Medium-term projections and scenarios They are neither forecasts nor predictions   

If enacted early enough, a relatively light set of measures could be likely be sufficient to curb sustained but slow growth 

DJ, Governments-around the globe in general-did not show they "enacted early enough". Immunity is decreasing in vaccinated-after 140 days, less then 5 months !!!, is not good news ! Eventhough the decrease is "limited and slow" the risks for variants evading immunity is increasing due to more spread (not detected because not tested !) in the vaccinated ! 

Proberbly a major reason why this pandemic is not far worse is that a lot of people limit exposure, social actions, themselves. 

Another question I have is how vulnarable long-covid patients will be for the flu. I expect flu to be a bigger problem this flu season. It will see less chance to spread but may be stronger if it can spread because of decrease in immunity. Vaccinating more people against the flu (in combination with boosters against CoViD) may limit the damage...

Maybe Israel is indicating NPI-restriction-mix from masks to social distance, ventilation may show to be much more effective !

-Twitter maybe the most important one is in Dutch; [url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ ;

Waarschuwing: Beste manier om nieuwe escapevarianten te voorkómen is: 1. Zo hoog mogelijk vaccinatieniveau 2. Zo laag mogelijk besmettingsniveau Hoog vacc.niveau + hoog besm.niveau: optimaal voor ontstaan van nieuwe varianten —> spoed: breng besmettingen <35/100.000/w (=<850/d)

Warning; Best way to avoid new escapa variants is: 1. As high as possible level of vaccinations 2. As low as possible level of new infections High level of vaccinations + high level of infections is optimal for creation of new variants -> urgent; reduce new infections to <35/100.000/w (=<850/d) 

DJ If we want to get out of the pandemic we need to get the cases below 35 per week per 100,000 of population ! [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table has cases per million per week ; 122 countries above the 350 cases per million...NL at 898 p/m, US at 3,211 UK at 3,212 p/m..Israel even goes to 6,612 cases per million per week. So we are going for the immune escape variants by not having enough restrictions....

Music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qadw2rFiaJc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qadw2rFiaJc  C'mon everybody - Eddie Cochran - 1959

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2021 at 12:32am

Josh, the western flank of the volcano that has started to slide is a whopping 500 cubic kilometres. It's a vast landmass and when it hits the ocean, the initial wave will be 2 kilometres high!!!!!! There really is nothing that we can do about something that big.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2021 at 4:21am

KiwiMum, in the worst case scenario (wich is not very likely) the only thing we can do is run to higher ground...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/u-s-east-coast-could-be-submerged-by-tsunami-at-canary-islands-volcano-eruption-with-landslide[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/u-s-east-coast-could-be-submerged-by-tsunami-at-canary-islands-volcano-eruption-with-landslide 

[url]https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=1036491[/url] or https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/earthquake.php?id=1036491 M 2,2 at 0 km

[url]https://www.ign.es/web/ign/portal/noticias[/url] or https://www.ign.es/web/ign/portal/noticias and 

[url]http://www.ign.es/web/resources/sismologia/tproximos/prox.html[/url] or http://www.ign.es/web/resources/sismologia/tproximos/prox.html links from the Spanish Geo Services ( in Spanish, somehow the English links have a problem). 

[url]https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/la-palma/news/141522/La-Palma-Island-Canary-Islands-earthquake-swarm-slows-down.html[/url] or https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/la-palma/news/141522/La-Palma-Island-Canary-Islands-earthquake-swarm-slows-down.html ; The earthquake swarm has slowed down significantly over the past 24 hours, but it is too early to draw conclusions as to whether the crisis might soon be ending or whether it will pick up again in intensity.

However [url]https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/[/url] or https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/ has four quakes M2 to M3.1 in the last 2 hours, depth 0 to 9 km... 

DJ Once in a thousend year events do happen from time to time...On top of a 1-in a 100 year pandemic it can worsen the situation. 

I do think it is important people (start to) realize how bad "events" can get ! A cumbra vieja collapse-in the worst scenario-may be several times worse then the Japan 2011 earthquake - very likely starting several Fukushima nuclear accidents, chemical disasters etc and making hundreds of millions of people homeless, jobless, futureless...

To keep a "pandemic link"; in a worst case scenario 2022 (or maybe even sooner) could see variants able to infect all kind of hosts over and over again...The present strategy with high vaccination in combination with maximum-almost-spread by lifting restrictions is pushing for that !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2021 at 1:07pm

Have you seen the excellent lecture by Dr Eric Cline on the collapse of ancient civilizations? Here a link to it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4LRHJlijVU

He's extremely erudite and funny, but to summarize his findings, the ancient societies around the mediterranean basin collapsed c.1180 B.C. not because of any one event like drought, disease, famine or war, any one of which, on it's own, they could have handled, but because of a combination of a number of them all at once. The proverbial straw that broke the camel's back. Of the nine prosperous nations all trading around this area, only one was left, and that was Egypt and they were only hanging on by their finger tips. The rest vanished without trace. It's definitely worth a watch because unlike Jared Diamond's book Collapse which charts the downfall of civilizations as they collapsed over time, one by one, Eric Cline is talking about a simultaneous collapse of multiple countries due to global issues.

He suggests that the world today is facing a similar situation with multiple issues all converging on us at once: disease, climate change, war, massive refugee movements, financial uncertainty.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2021 at 9:45pm

Thanks KiwiMum ! I will try to find time to watch the link ! 

I did see other video's on the Bronze Age collapse, amazing how far they were allready ! Also the (West) Roman collapse...they did find writings discussing how unthinkable it seemed for those Romans...eventhough they themselves ended the Greek civilization...did take over Egypt (Cleopatra was the last of a royal house started by Alexander the great...)..

The Romans had five expeditions into Africa, a.o. following the Nile discovering what now is known as Lake Victoria...also discovering Ebola...(most likely) taking it back to the empire....

Pre Columbus America is another "world" that is gone...

Nowadays people find it hard to imagine "our world" soon will be gone. When you get to an older age-think of your childhood-you know the world of the 60's-in many ways-is more different from the present world then from the world of 1910....Changes...

DJ, 

This pandemic in numbers; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; september 16 did see global reported/tested cases 573,807 -trend per week -8%. The US reporting 151,142 cases, trend +0,4%, UK cases 26,911 trend -22% (as far as there is testing...). Israel did see 6,191 cases - trend +21%...

For deaths; worldwide 9,224 deaths reported trend -3%. The US reported 1,871 deaths, +12% on a weekly basis. The UK did see another 158 CoViD deaths reported +5%. Israel 13 deaths-trend is -20% (last week 191, this week 152). 

Here in NL there was just enough support for vaccine passports in parliament...Based on the wrong idea vaccines provide enough protection. In Münster-Germany there was a party for only vaccinated. Of the 380 people there allready 81 did get infected (trying to find a link at [url]https://beta.dw.com/en/coronavirus/t-52104885[/url] or https://beta.dw.com/en/coronavirus/t-52104885 ) [url]https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/muenster-nach-2g-party-in-muenster-ist-inzwischen-jeder-fuenfte-gast-infiziert-a-a2ce6b30-fee1-43d4-ba4a-c5001af2bce3-amp?__twitter_impression=true[/url] or https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/muenster-nach-2g-party-in-muenster-ist-inzwischen-jeder-fuenfte-gast-infiziert-a-a2ce6b30-fee1-43d4-ba4a-c5001af2bce3-amp?__twitter_impression=true Party was september 3-no false Qr codes/vaccination passports, also the club followed the rules...Vaccine passports could be an extra tool if there is a good plan....

Israel in many ways may be a "good" indicator of where we are going. High level of vaccinations-low level of restrictions=high level of infections. In UK hospital (I belief ZOE numbers yesterday) allready 1-in-3 cases did get the vaccine. 

What you can expect from this (lack of) strategy is immune evading variants..."can 't fix stupid"-even if stupid will kill us all !

[url]https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01451-0[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01451-0 Ten reasons why immunity passports are a bad idea. On 24 April, the World Health Organization (WHO) cautioned against issuing immunity passports because their accuracy could not be guaranteed. It stated that: “There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection”(see go.nature.com/3cutjqz). Nonetheless, the idea is being floated in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and other nations.

DJ From China to Israel "immunity passports" still see virus spread...a false sense of security. (DJ-My idea was "vaccine passports" -immunity passports may be the better word for it !-could be used in some work/school settings if people had to be there to at least limit risks. But maybe even that idea was to optimistic !). 

So where are we now ? Global wave is going down but Delta variant most likely will go up again if it gets enough room. Maybe local weather will become a major factor. My idea is that we may see another wave starting more likely allready in october then later this year...

There is NO strategy to contain infections in most places. It is good there still are-limited-restrictions on international air travel...Hospitals are dealing with 1-normal care, 2-delayed care, 3 Covid care...with less staff then earlier during the pandemic. 

[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing (for the US); 

Sobering—the 

 predicts that #COVID19 deaths may top 400k in 2021 alone, surpassing the total for 2020, if #DeltaVariant surge continues. But there is no fate but what we make—and the fate of our society and our children lies in our hands…

DJ Sending unvaccinated to schools-often without restrictions is resulting in a lot of infections in that age group. India did warn for Delta infecting children since april...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923772-china-more-than-40-of-the-local-confirmed-cases-in-putian-fujian-are-under-12-years-old-september-16-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923772-china-more-than-40-of-the-local-confirmed-cases-in-putian-fujian-are-under-12-years-old-september-16-2021At present, of the 129 local confirmed cases, 58 people are 14 years old and below (57 people under 12 years old). According to the national epidemic prevention and control regulations, COVID-19 patients are not allowed to be accompanied during their admission. If both adults and children of the patients are positive cases, The hospital will try to arrange it in the same ward.

DJ China did allready vaccinate over 1 billion people...(this could mean that worldwide most fully vaccinated people are now in China...). I would have to look for further info on what age groups they vaccinated, 12+ or 18+. Cuba is going for vaccinating 2+ age groups before reopening schools...Given that even western-very good-vaccines offer limited in duration protection it is very likely China will go for massive booster vaccinations...

China trends; cases +106% last week 185, this week 382 (proberbly a lot stopped at border control-but still limited spread inside China). China had 0,3 case per million of population-by the way China population in these numbers is 1,446 million+ !

China and New Zealand may be the most succesfull in zero-Covid strategy !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ag/923771-wyoming-pneumonic-plague-case[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ag/923771-wyoming-pneumonic-plague-caseSeptember 15, 2021

The Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) announced today the detection of a rare but serious case of pneumonic plague in a northern Fremont County resident.

Plague is a bacterial infection that can be deadly to humans and other mammals, including pets, if not treated promptly with antibiotics. This disease can be transmitted to humans from sick animals or by fleas coming from infected animals; in this case, the person had contact with sick pet cats.

Plague can also be transmitted from person to person through close contact with someone who has pneumonic plague. Individuals with a known exposure to plague require post-exposure treatment with antibiotics to help prevent illness. WDH is notifying individuals who may need this kind of treatment.

Plague symptoms depend on how the patient is exposed. The most common form is bubonic plague, where patients develop the sudden onset of fever, headache, chills, and weakness and one or more swollen, painful lymph nodes called buboes. This form usually results from the bite of an infected flea. Individuals with septicemic plague develop fever, chills, extreme weakness, abdominal pain, shock, and possible bleeding into the skin and other organs. Septicemic plague can occur as the first symptom of plague or may develop from untreated bubonic plague and can be caused by the bite of an infected flea or the handling of an infected animal. Individuals with pneumonic plague develop fever, headache, weakness, and a rapidly developing pneumonia with shortness of breath, chest pain, and sometimes watery or bloody mucous.

Pneumonic plague is the most serious form and is the only form that can be spread from person to person. Pneumonic plague can develop from inhaling infectious droplets or may develop from untreated bubonic or septicemic plague.

DJ Symptoms look a lot like CoViD...bad news ! 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/923766-eurosurv-characterisation-of-vaccine-breakthrough-infections-of-sars-cov-2-delta-and-alpha-variants-and-within-host-viral-load-dynamics-in-the-community-france-june-to-july-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/923766-eurosurv-characterisation-of-vaccine-breakthrough-infections-of-sars-cov-2-delta-and-alpha-variants-and-within-host-viral-load-dynamics-in-the-community-france-june-to-july-2021 ; We compared PCR results from SARS-CoV-2-positive patients tested in the community in France from 14 June to 30 July 2021. In asymptomatic individuals, 


Cq values were significantly higher in fully vaccinated than non-fully vaccinated individuals (effect size: 1.7; 95% CI: 1–2.3; p < 10−6). 


In symptomatic individuals and controlling for time since symptoms, the difference vanished (p = 0.26). Infections with the Delta variant had lower Cq values at symptom onset than with Alpha (effect size: −3.32; 95% CI: −4.38 to −2.25; p < 10−6).

full article

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/con...#html_fulltext

DJ So if vaccinated persons get infected they may be better in spreading the virus-without symptoms-then unvaccinated. Makes "vaccine passports" to "reopen" even more dangerous !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/923759-alaska-reports-3rd-4th-case-of-a-novel-zoonotic-orthopoxvirus-alaskapox-near-fairbanks[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/923759-alaska-reports-3rd-4th-case-of-a-novel-zoonotic-orthopoxvirus-alaskapox-near-fairbanks

Although smallpox has been eradicated globally for more than 40 years, and the last natural outbreak of this scourge in the United States occurred in 1949, there remain other poxviruses - often carried by small mammals and arthropods - with at least some zoonotic potential around the world.


Among them are CowpoxCamelpox, and currently of greatest concern, Monkeypox (see WHO: Modelling Human-to-Human Transmission of Monkeypox) which is endemic in central and western Africa, and has shown signs of increased transmission over the past decade (see EID Journal:Extended H-2-H Transmission during a Monkeypox Outbreak).

While none of these poxviruses have shown anywhere near the severity, or transmissibility, of smallpox in humans, they are a reminder that poxviruses remain a public health concern. Over the past decade we've seen several novel poxviruses - for which we have limited knowledge - emerge, including:

But most pertinent to today's blog, a little less than a year ago in A Novel Zoonotic Orthopoxvirus Resurfaces In Alaskawe looked at the second known case of a human infection with a recently discovered Alaskapox virus.


The first case - identified in 2015 - was in a middle-aged female resident of Fairbanks, Alaska who presented to an urgent care facility with what she thought was a spider bite on her shoulder, along with fever, fatigue and tender lymph nodes (see Clin. Inf. Dis Novel Orthopoxvirus Infection in an Alaska Resident).


Tests for shingles and chickenpox were negative, and subsequent lab tests revealed she had a never-before-seen novel pox virus. The lesion resolved after about 6 months.

While she had contact with a house guest from Azerbaijan, and there were signs of small mammals around her residence, no source of exposure was determined. The virus was determined to be genetically distinct from other known poxviruses, and was likely locally acquired.

DJ-With hospitals-worldwide-close to-if not allready in-crisis other diseases are "very unwelcome"! 

Emerging infectious diseases are considered such an important public health threat that the CDC maintains as special division – NCEZID (National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases) – to deal with them, and more than 25 years ago the CDC established the EID Journal dedicated to research on emerging infectious diseases.


Over the past 16 years this blog has followed dozens of EIDs, including MERS-CoV, H5N1, H7N9, H5N6, EA H1N1 G4, Zika, Chikungunya, Ebola, Lyme Disease, SFTS, Nipah and Hendra, Hantavirus, Monkeypox, The Heartland Virus, the Bourbon Virus, and many others.

While most of these emerging diseases will never pose a serious pandemic threat, the sudden emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic illustrates how quickly we can be blindsided by an obscure or unknown pathogen. Which is why, whenever a novel virus makes the jump to humans, we take note. https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2021/...-of-novel.html

DJ Other infectious diseases that may look like CoViD-with care allready overstretched in very many places-can get more chance to spread then when there is not this pandemic. Certainly diseases in (wild) animals may pose an increased risk. It may get harder to detect-in time-other infectious diseases that start spreading. 

The chances for some sort of pandemic-on top of this pandemic-from flu to "worse" may be growing. 

-Dr. John Campbell on Ivermectin in Australia [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gndsUjgPYo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_gndsUjgPYo  DJ. Dr. John Campbell has the courage to have his own-more nuanced-opinion on Ivermectin. 

My (very limited-I am NOT an expert) view on Ivermectin is that it can/should NOT replace vaccine protection ! Some countries did use Ivermectin because there were no alternatives. Some countries (India a.o.) did claim-the right dosage of Ivermectin did prevent infections/helped patients...However Merck-the producer of Ivermectin advises against use of it for CoViD...(the FDA claimed Ivermectin could be used in humans for some other health issues). 

Also if Ivermectin would be seeing such good results a lot of countries would be using it...it is cheap, relative easy to produce, but (as far as I know) Ivermectin is NOT the #1 in dealing with this pandemic anywhere...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivermectin[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivermectin I expect Ivermectin may find some use in this-still worsening-pandemic. The vaccines soon may show to be "less usefull" in ending this pandemic. 

In my view "living with the virus" -just like living with climate collapse-is a "dead end road". A short term strategy, kicking the can down the road-to leave it to others to make the hard decissions needed to get out of this pandemic-if possible...

I can only hope Ivermectin-or other treatments-will help to contain suffering and deaths...

Are we "at the end of the road" for the "present civilization"? Western dominance of the globe may have allready ended. We "just do not want to see it". Climate collapse may be that far we can not avoid very nasty consequences...Once in 1,000 to millions of years events on top of it may "end us"....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/ has the good slogan; "On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero"

DJ We are "only visitors" in our live...we all have to go someday...

Music ; Sarah Brightman & Andrea Bocelli - Time to say goodbye [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ky0rO7pM3WI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ky0rO7pM3WI 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 17 2021 at 1:10pm

What really struck me as interesting was the use of Ivermectin as a prophylactic. There is an area of India where due to an endemic virus called River Blindness, the population all take Ivermectin as a prophylactic to ward off the disease, and in this region they've had almost no Covid at all. Dr John Campbell as mentioned the idea of following their lead and taking Ivermectin before you get Covid, so has Dr Chris Marten.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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DJ,

What if "Ivermectin" in India is maybe a little bit different from "Ivermectin" in the US (and its colonies UK, Australia) ? Could that explain why "Ivermectin" did show perspectives in some countries but turns out to be a problem in other countries. We are talking about the same name but maybe with a slight difference of contents ? 

On scenario's ;

In2thinair [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDNZTmBw-FA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDNZTmBw-FA trying to say something usefull on hurricanes in the Atlantic. "Odette" did form-but will turn east soon into the Atlantic away from the US coast...could be going to western Europe. Very likely between Greenland and Norway....Two models GFS and CMC come with different results on the next storms..."Peter" may show up soon, "Rose" early october ? 

He also did hear from the "La Palma" volcano (There are more volcanos on that island-Cumbra Vieja is the possible problem). [url]https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/Map/zoom.php?key=53&typ=euro#2[/url] or https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/Map/zoom.php?key=53&typ=euro#2 showing sept. 17 did see "only" 6 quakes in the Canary Islands-with another 3 allready today...Even if there was a volcanic eruption that would not translate directly into a mega tsunami over all of the Atlantic (not only the US and Canada as some "you tube-ers" mention).  But even 10% of the maximum tsunami potential would be very bad !

-

AUKUS-disaster...

The US has been working with India, Japan and Australia "on cooperation against Chinese agression". (Who started most wars ? Wich war did China start ?). Australia did order submarines in France-after talks with a.o Japan (but NOT with the US/UK).

France allready spent 3 billion on transferring their nuclear submarine into a diesel one for Australia-on Australian request...New Zealand does not want more nuclear "things" in its region...

So the secret talks that started summer 2020 (during trump) to make Australia buying US nuclear submarines suddenly presented as "a new Australia-UK-US peace pact" ; AUKUS was a shock for many US allies....

1-France/EU did see a mega military order 40 billion US$ (I believe it is US $ most used here...Australia also has $, Europe has €) cancelled meaning tens of thousends of jobs gone...Another deal broken due to US actions...

The US tried to stop Germany (etc.) bying Russian gas via North Stream, even putting sanctions on companies that worked on the pipeline...The US putting sanctions on its allies because they buy energy from Russia...

France did pull back its ambassadors from the US and Australia...

2-Japan also did try to get the Australian mega order...Now finds out the US picked Australia only as a "special partner"..instead of including also Japan and India...

3-Many countries in the region NOT happy at all with more nuclear activity. Diesel submarines are seen as defensive, nuclear ones as offensive...(longer range). 

On top of that US-China relations also allready were bad. So why now this news if you want to de-escalate ? 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/09/how-jack-sullivan-screwed-up-the-us-relations-with-france.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/09/how-jack-sullivan-screwed-up-the-us-relations-with-france.html  and [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/china-issues-nuclear-attack-threat-against-australia-over-new-submarine-deal[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/china-issues-nuclear-attack-threat-against-australia-over-new-submarine-deal (Nuclear driven submarines are a target since they are offensive...)

In the short term Australia's "choice" (or how far did the US pressure go-was it a choice ? [url]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/23/gough-whitlam-1975-coup-ended-australian-independence[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/23/gough-whitlam-1975-coup-ended-australian-independence ) does mean further delay for new submarines...maybe till 2030...

Also higher costs (they also have to pay France a lot-maybe legal fights may result in that Australia could end up paying allmost as much to France as if they did not cancel the order...Also the other submarines are more expensive because they are from the US (so a lot of corruption) and they are nuclear...Instead of 12 French diesel submarines the Australia now ordering 8 US submarines...

The costs at the end for the Australian taxpayer could explode to over 100 billion US$ instead of the 40 billion...

It is an election year in Australia...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Morrison[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Morrison (like Bojo "liberal conservative") has "something to explain"

Will AUKUS blow up NATO ? In many ways NATO allready is a sort of skeleton. The EU would like to have its own army...France will become the next chair for the EU [url]https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-council-presidency/news/france-already-preparing-for-eu-presidency-in-first-half-of-2022/[/url] or https://www.euractiv.com/section/eu-council-presidency/news/france-already-preparing-for-eu-presidency-in-first-half-of-2022/ Will another Australian government start talks on joining the EU ? (They allready are in the Eurovision song contest !) I do not know....

Trump was a foreign policy disaster for the US...diplomacy never a US strong point...The US allready lost Pakistan, Philippines as allies in the last decades (Iran revolution ended that "special US relationship" in 1979...). 

Russia and China are allies. But the US foreign policies are doing most of the damage...

-

So how do these above scenario's relate to pandemic scenario's ? 

-1 They all show how complicated scenario's/models are...You can think you are "showing strength" with a "New Strong Alliance" AUKUS...but the presentation itself (with Biden not knowing the name of Australia PM) turned out to be a total disaster...

Vaccines may do good on the short term-but ending restrictions with a lot of vaccinated getting infected-on the longer term will see resistent variants evading immunity....

-2 International cooperation is missing...Maybe China is showing to have a good talent for diplomacy...Lavrov/Putin know "how to play the game"....The US does not understand how to treath others as equal partners, keeps breaking international agreements even with its partners...The US has become its own enemy !

-3 So far damage has been limited. But there are "limits". New York Subways under water several times per year may become to expensive...Drilling for oil in the Mexican Gulf when you have to evacuate the crew over and over again also has its costs...The US/Australian canceling of French submarines may have destroyed the French submarine building...creating a lot of social unrest in coastal places where shipbuilding is the major factor. The damage for Australia of breaking a contract with France, going for the US may be bigger then [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Season_effects this far...

We may not even have seen the worst part of this pandemic ! Like climate collapse it may go exponential !

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ global cases as far as there is testing (basically we don't know...) 565,233 of wich 157,925 in the US. Deaths as far as (under)reported 8,501 of wich 1,938 in the US...The UK did see 32,651 cases, 178 deaths being reported-a "new normal for BoJo"! 

Trends worldwide cases -7%, deaths -2%, for the US cases +0,3%, deaths +14%, UK cases -23%, deaths +5%. 

In global trends China cases going up +158% is remarkable ! Last week 174, this week 449...(no deaths reported...at a certain moment you may question that !) In total 84 countries reporting an increase (including Eastern Europe, Peru, Chile...) A new start of cases going up may indicate some mutations-possibly a new variant...Israel has the "perfect match" for creating immunity evading variants high level of vaccines with high level of spread (cases +16%, deaths -10%...)

In general the idea now accepted is we will be in this pandemic (that started in 2019 if you look at studies finding early cases in many places in all kind of samples) at least part of next year. The vaccine strategy will stay dominant "vaccinate till you drop" but as long as we can not bring down the spread-we are not even trying !-it will only result in immunity evading variants...

China and New Zealand are among the limited number of countries that may have a chance of succes in limiting this pandemic-for now. Vietnam (cases -11%, deaths -18%) may be one of the other countries going for that goal...

Denmark did reopen on basis of very high level of vaccinations. So far cases still going down (-31%) but time will show if the strategy of "restricted openness" can work...with border checks etc. 

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923821-cidrap-cdc-moderna-covid-vaccine-most-protective-against-hospital-cases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923821-cidrap-cdc-moderna-covid-vaccine-most-protective-against-hospital-cases ; In a study involving a case-control analysis of 3,689 adults who were hospitalized at 21 US hospitals at some point from Mar 11 through Aug 15, the vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 hospitalizations was 93% for Moderna, 88% for Pfizer/BioNTech, and 71% for the single-dose Johnson & Johnson (J&J) vaccine.

DJ Iran may use both Sputnik-V and Janssen (the Dutch-Leiden name). With over 1 billion Chinese fully vaccinated Chinese vaccines are most used worldwide...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923819-cidrap-news-scan-pandemic-weight-gain-in-kids-long-covid-19-risks-plague-in-wyoming-h5n6-avian-flu-case-in-china-marburg-in-guinea-winds-down[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923819-cidrap-news-scan-pandemic-weight-gain-in-kids-long-covid-19-risks-plague-in-wyoming-h5n6-avian-flu-case-in-china-marburg-in-guinea-winds-down ; The researchers looked at 432,302 US children aged 2 to 19 years. Prepandemic (Jan 1, 2018, to Feb 29, 2020), the increase rate of BMI was 0.052 kilograms per square meter per month (kg/m2/month), but after the pandemic began (Mar 1 to Nov 30, 2020), the rate of change was 0.100 kg/m2/month. Overall, obesity prevalence went from 19.3% in August 2019 to 22.4% in August 2020.

-

Long COVID-19 was more likely to occur in those 40 and older, women, and those with at least one underlying health condition, according to an MMWR study today.

Women (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.83), those with at least one health condition (aOR, 2.17), Black people (aOR, 1.95), and older participants (40 to 54 years versus 18 to 39, aOR, 1.86) were more likely to have long COVID-19 at 2 months. Black people were also associated with a greater number of symptoms, particularly shortness of breath and weakness, compared with White people (incidence rate ratio, 1.95).
The cohort was made up mostly of Hispanic or Latino people (66%) and women (57%), with 39% being between 25 and 39 years old. About 46% had a pre-existing chronic condition prior to COVID-19. Five percent were hospitalized because of their COVID-19 illness.

-

One pneumonic plague case in Fremont County, Wyoming, was reported to the Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) Sep 15, according to a WDH notice. This marks the seventh human case in Wyoming since 1978, with the most recent being an imported case in 2008.
The patient was in contact with sick pet cats and is reported to have serious illness.

-

China this week reported another H5N6 avian flu case, its 19th of the year, according to a statement today from Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection (CHP).

H5N6 is known to circulate in poultry, mainly in Asia. Human infections typically occur in people who had poultry exposure and are often severe or fatal. China and Laos are the only countries to report human cases.

DJ So H5N6 still looks like jumping from birds to humans....but cases have been going up. It still may become a serious problem if H5N6 is spread in a lot of birds, virus spread via those bird droppings infecting possibly other mammals...For most western countries increase in BMI is not welcome, may become the basis for more vulnerability for all kind of healthissues...For H5N6 see this list [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/723926-flutrackers-h5n6-cumulative-case-list[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/723926-flutrackers-h5n6-cumulative-case-list  not good !!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923818-cidrap-highly-resistant-bacteria-from-pet-store-puppies-continue-to-cause-illness[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923818-cidrap-highly-resistant-bacteria-from-pet-store-puppies-continue-to-cause-illness ; A new study led by researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicates that strains of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) bacteria linked to pet store puppies have been circulating for a decade and continue to cause illness.
The study, published this week in JAMA Network Open, identified 168 patients who had XDR Campylobacter jejuni infections with epidemiologic or molecular links to pet store puppies from 2011 to 2020. Analysis of bacterial isolates from the patients found resistance to seven classes of antibiotics, including antibiotics that are recommended for treatment of Campylobacter infections.

The connection to pet stores and commercial breeders may be linked to inappropriate use of antibiotics and other management practices in the commercial dog industry.
The authors note that, in the initial investigation, which was described in a 2018 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report article, CDC investigators reported that 142 of 149 puppies from 20 pet stores had received at least one or more antibiotic course before arriving at the stores. More than half of the puppies received antibiotics to prevent illness.

DJ Animals are not "things"....for profit. If we do not respect life there is a very high price to pay-we know how this pandemic most likely started in animals...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923797-more-than-10-of-ky-covid-deaths-since-june-were-under-age-50-a-fivefold-increase[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923797-more-than-10-of-ky-covid-deaths-since-june-were-under-age-50-a-fivefold-increase ; Younger Kentuckians are dying more frequently from COVID-19 as the state’s supply of ICU beds dipped below 100 for only the third time since the coronavirus pandemic began, Gov. Andy Beshear said Thursday.

The percentage of Kentuckians dying from COVID-19 who are 30 to 49 years old has increased fivefold since May, with that age group accounting for 11 percent of deaths since June, Beshear said.

The Democratic governor reported that Kentucky only has 93 adult ICU beds available and 66 of the 96 acute care hospitals in the state have critical staffing shortages.

“The situation continues to be dire and we need for people to continue to do their very best to protect themselves and their families,” said Beshear, adding that the best protective measures are getting vaccinated and wearing masks, even at outdoor events with large crowds, such as football games.

More than 90 percent of the people who are hospitalized because of COVID-19 have not been vaccinated, he said...

DJ Delta is hitting younger age groups harder, vaccinations-for now-offer good protection (so get vaccinated if you did not do so !!!). Lifting of restrictions is insane....we need both vaccines and restrictions if the goal is to get out of this crisis. "Living with the virus" , just like "living with climate collapse" is NOT a realistic option-both go exponential !!! Staff running out is also seen worldwide...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/influenza-in-animals-excl-h5n1/923788-ca-los-angeles-county-sees-spike-in-two-canine-illnesses[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/influenza-in-animals-excl-h5n1/923788-ca-los-angeles-county-sees-spike-in-two-canine-illnessesA pair of diseases for dogs have pet owners and public health officials worried in Los Angeles County.

Dr. Karen Ehnert, director of Veterinary Public Health for the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, noted that the recent rise of cases of canine influenza and leptospirosis “is not normal.”

“I have been with county for 21 years,” she said. “This is the first time we’ve had such large outbreaks.”

The outbreaks, which Ehnert said started in mid-July, were introduced to the county by dogs that came from other places...

...“This outbreak is driven by dog-to-dog transmission of the bacteria in group settings such as boarding kennels or dog daycare, leading to a higher number of cases than what has been seen in recent years,” the department said on its website.

The department also noted that canine flu — or CIV H3N2 — is spreading at these facilities.

“To date, this is the largest outbreak of CIV H3N2 reported in Los Angeles County,” the department said on its website...

DJ Covid-distant-link or just bad luck ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/923783-trials-vaccine-trials-during-a-pandemic-potential-approaches-to-ethical-dilemmas[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/923783-trials-vaccine-trials-during-a-pandemic-potential-approaches-to-ethical-dilemmas ; In this paper, we discuss two major ethical dilemmas: (1) the equipoise of continuing new vaccine trials in the advent of successful candidates and (2) the maleficence of blinded placebo arms. Accordingly, we discuss six different potential approaches to these ethical dilemmas: (1) continuing with placebo-controlled trials, (2) transitioning from placebo-controlled to open-label, (3) unblinding at-risk priority groups only, (4) transitioning to a blinded stepped-wedge cross-over design, (5) progressing to a blinded active-controlled stepped-wedge cross-over trial, and (6) conducting randomised stepped-wedge community trials. We also propose a decision-making algorithm for relevant stakeholders in advanced stages of vaccine trials

.It is important to remember that the emergent nature of the COVID-19 situation does not justify a compromise on core ethical values. In fact, the discourse surrounding this topic and the decisions made will remain a potent case study and a continuously referenced example for all such future scenarios.

DJ Present vaccines still offer good protection-how to deal with new vaccines being needed and tested ? You have to switch from computer models to "the real world"...Waiting to long may be bad, however using a new vaccine that offers less protection-or more side effects, also is not wanted. 

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vULYDSJAzPs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vULYDSJAzPs ; UK comparisons - more or less talking on latest ZOE-UK/Tim Spector update. In my opinion main points;

Tim Spector ;

After calling for a plan for several weeks I’m pleased to see the government has launched a booster vaccine programme. (To give boosters to everyone over 50)

the winter plan fails to introduce the current symptoms to the list 

now most people experience symptoms like sore throat, headache and sneezing rather than fever or cough  

I also don't understand why we are waiting for the situation to get worse and the NHS is pressured further before implementing simple measures that would help to bring down the number of new cases and save lives.  

With such high levels of virus in the population we should also still be wearing masks and keeping our distance in crowded public places, as in major European cities where cases are much lower than ours.

DJ [url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1




I'm honestly fed up of being slandered today. I've literally never said this. Stop making up complete lies. I didn't say the ONS report is flawed due to controls at all!! I've been subject to coordinated trolling & been misrepresented repeatedly, and I've honestly had enough.

DJ Lots of scientists went to social media to spread the info-only to see trolling, misuse of that info increasing. 

This is even worsening the social and science part of this pandemic !

Music-Bat Out Of Hell - Meat Loaf [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QGMCSCFoKA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QGMCSCFoKA 

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New Zealand is a nuclear free zone. We don't allow any nuclear powered ships or submarines in our waters, or any conventional ships with nuclear weapons on them. Australia can have them!!!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 18 2021 at 11:50pm

KiwiMum, It will be interesting to see how the [url]https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/08/31/federal-election-scott-morrison/[/url] or https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2021/08/31/federal-election-scott-morrison/ will be influenced by this development...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/more-us-troops-aircraft-will-deploy-australia-after-new-counter-china-pact-unveiled[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/more-us-troops-aircraft-will-deploy-australia-after-new-counter-china-pact-unveiled ; He also hinted that Australia might host US medium-range missiles that were previously banned under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which the Trump administration withdrew from in 2019. Dutton signaled Australia is open to basing "different ordinances," which he said was in "Australia’s best interest."

DJ Maybe the pandemic could be related ? Cases still +0,8%, over 12,000 per week. Australia deaths +33%, last week 48, this week 64..."Never waste a good crisis"....

More on the "submarine order switch" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KmmnFuCfqI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KmmnFuCfqI Alexander Mercouris, DJ-The main damage may be in other countries willing to trust the US...If the US wants to claim to be #1 it HAS to change its foreign policy !

-Global numbers; cases (with limited testing) -9%, deaths -5% [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table

When I look at countries and numbers (China cases +175% but with low numbers 171 to 470 this week-no deaths reported...indicating Delta-variant is giving China a hard time !) ;Romania, Ukraine, Slovakia, Poland, Egypt, Canada, Brazil, Laos, Turkey, Chile, (a.o.) all report +10% increase of cases...in some of those countries it will be the Delta(+) variant (again) increasing numbers...but with limited testing/sequencing, also limited reporting we simply do not have a good view. 

Vaccinated may get infected-get NO symptoms, still spread the disease...there is no ad random testing in most countries. By now it is very likely some new variants must be spreading. It is also likely immunity evasion is increasing in some of the new variants...

The wise strategy is vaccination AND restrictions...My view is that allthough still people are getting vaccinated every day-in general-vaccine protection of the population may be decreasing. Many countries did choose to vaccinate the "old and vulnarable" first...here the immunity-after some months-will be decreasing...

And YES ! vaccination-for now-does limit risks for severe disease...but it is both the trend of downward vaccine protection and the timing-autumn/fall in sight...booster vaccines may help. 

Countries trying to go for Zero-CoViD like China, Vietnam, New Zealand (a.o.) may do better in limiting pandemic damage. 

If I can avoid getting infected I will do "a lot" for that ! I had my second Pfizer vaccine in june...expect a third-booster within half a year (maybe in combination with the flu shot-allthough here in NL that campain starts next month...).

-Flutrackers latest posts;

Warning-"US politics" [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/923852-biden-turns-his-back-on-americans-his-latest-move-could-be-deadly[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/923852-biden-turns-his-back-on-americans-his-latest-move-could-be-deadlyIn the face of rising demand for monoclonal antibodies, a proven treatment for the virus that prevents serious illness, the Department of Health and Human Services has seized control of its distribution, creating a government bottleneck that will likely delay treatment for sick patients.

DJ Claim is Biden would not send those treatments to republican states....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923851-unions-lose-confidence-in-cdc-s-ability-to-guide-covid-19-workplace-safety[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923851-unions-lose-confidence-in-cdc-s-ability-to-guide-covid-19-workplace-safetyIn a letter to OSHA, USW also asked OSHA to completely remove all references to CDC guidance from the ETS based on its concern over CDC’s frequently changing guidance and fears of “political interference” in CDC’s determinations. USW proposed that OSHA take complete authority over the workplace COVID-19 requirements to increase clarity and consistency in requirement compliance. Moreover, while the CDC is free to revise its policies without warning, OSHA rules change only after a notice period...

DJ Here in NL the "Outbreak Management Team" OMT and Dutch CDC (RIVM) "experts" take their orders from the government in stead of advising the government what to do...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923853-un-won-t-restrict-entry-for-visit-of-brazil-s-unvaccinated-president-has-natural-immunity[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923853-un-won-t-restrict-entry-for-visit-of-brazil-s-unvaccinated-president-has-natural-immunity ;DJ For many reasons it would be welcome if every one leaves the meeting place when this cia-fascist enters the place...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923845-washington-d-c-great-cats-tested-presumptive-positive-for-covid-19-at-the-smithsonian-s-national-zoo[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923845-washington-d-c-great-cats-tested-presumptive-positive-for-covid-19-at-the-smithsonian-s-national-zoo ; Six African lions, a Sumatran tiger and two Amur tigers have tested presumptive positive for the virus that causes COVID-19. Last weekend, animal keepers observed decreased appetites, coughing, sneezing and lethargy in several lions and tigers. Fecal samples for all great cats were collected and tested presumptive positive. Final results are expected in the next few days. All lions and tigers are being treated with anti-inflammatories and anti-nausea medication to address discomfort and decreased appetite. In addition, all are being treated with antibiotics for presumptive secondary bacterial pneumonia. They remain under close observation and, because their condition does not require they remain inside, staff will manage the cats’ access to their outdoor habitats. Given the substantial distance between the animals and visitors, the public is not at risk. No other animals at the Zoo are showing any signs of infection.

-

The Zoo has conducted a thorough investigation of all staff that were in close proximity to the lions and tigers. There is no evidence to pinpoint the source of the infection. While it is possible the infection was transmitted by an asymptomatic carrier, it has been standard practice for all animal care staff and essential staff to mask indoors in all public and non-public areas. The health and vaccination status of employees is confidential medical information.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has authorized the use of a SARS-COV-2 vaccine made specifically for zoo animals by Zoetis. The first round of vaccine disbursement will be administered to select animals identified as a susceptible species at both the Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute in Virginia when it becomes available in the coming months.

DJ CoViD-19 in non-human hosts may increase the risk for new variants. By now "Delta" most likely ends up in other animals. I wonder if "Delta" infects non-human hosts more easy-higher R0...Aerosol spread ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/923838-vietnam-china-media-nearly-80-000-companies-closed-in-vietnam-in-7-months-a-chain-reaction-appears-uniqlo-can-t-get-the-goods-and-postpone-the-new-release-september-17-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/923838-vietnam-china-media-nearly-80-000-companies-closed-in-vietnam-in-7-months-a-chain-reaction-appears-uniqlo-can-t-get-the-goods-and-postpone-the-new-release-september-17-2021 ; Some new products originally planned to be launched in Japan will be delayed. The reason is that due to the impact of the epidemic, the garment factory that the company cooperates with in Vietnam has stopped production and the logistics of goods have also been delayed. In addition, other large-scale apparel companies in Japan have also changed their sales strategies because of the decline in production capacity.

DJ The duration of this pandemic-with the growing idea we may be in a pandemic at least till summer 2022-is showing economic effects. A high level of flexibility means some products can be bought, produced, in other locations...But economic consequences will increase the coming months. Logistics may show to be a problem as well...

-Other news;

Hal Turner [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/earthquake-swarm-la-palma-if-blows-wipes-out-us-east-coast-via-tsunami[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/earthquake-swarm-la-palma-if-blows-wipes-out-us-east-coast-via-tsunami keeps updating the "Cumbra Vieja" tsunami-risk. 

[url]https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/Map/zoom.php?key=53&typ=euro#2[/url] or https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/Map/zoom.php?key=53&typ=euro#2 And YES-earthquakes are still going on, southern part of the island may be going down slowly-increasing landslide risks. Groundwater most likely will heat up...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cataclysm[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cataclysm ...

DJ-Once in ten million events happen on some day...some hour...I think it is good to realize that-count ourselves lucky we-most of us-have a "good live". 

In this "mega tsunami scenario" such an amount of water may be "in motion" it will cause seismic events on its own...One cubic meter (m3) of water (a "box"of 1x1x1 meter) is 1.000 kilo. Speed is another factor...Moving at 1 kilometer per hour-slow-is different then moving at 100 kilometer an hour-fast. In a tsunami the speed may be even higher....

When you are taking of cubic kilometers of water in motion (it is the shockwave, energy that is moving) you are talking of insane weights shifting...The Mid-Atlantic ridge may slow down such a movement or it would see "seismic movement"...

Chances for a collision with a larger space object, super-tsunami, super volcano etc are very, very small...but they DO happen ! 

Everything seems to have a beginning and an end..."we are stardust"; just trying to make sense...

Music; Crosby, Still, Nash and Young - We Are Stardust, We Are Golden, We Are Billion Year Old Carbon [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nivr4YZzzME[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nivr4YZzzME 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

Vaccinated may get infected-get NO symptoms, still spread the disease...there is no ad random testing in most countries. By now it is very likely some new variants must be spreading. It is also likely immunity evasion is increasing in some of the new variants...

The wise strategy is vaccination AND restrictions...My view is that allthough still people are getting vaccinated every day-in general-vaccine protection of the population may be decreasing. Many countries did choose to vaccinate the "old and vulnarable" first...here the immunity-after some months-will be decreasing...

And YES ! vaccination-for now-does limit risks for severe disease...but it is both the trend of downward vaccine protection and the timing-autumn/fall in sight...booster vaccines may help. 

Countries trying to go for Zero-CoViD like China, Vietnam, New Zealand (a.o.) may do better in limiting pandemic damage. 

I'm glad that countries are starting to be honest about the level of protection waning as I do think many (especially older) people are walking around feeling invincible when they are not. The police here had to break up a party in a coffee shop recently full of people in their 70s who seemed to think because they were double jabbed they could cram in there like sardines. 

As for the Zero Covid strategy that NZ is pursuing, it's only because only 34% of our eligible population is vaccinated. We ran out of vaccines last week but have been sent some by Denmark. They are estimating that by the new year we will reopen the borders and relax a bit. They are hoping to hit 80% vaccination rate but our scientists say you'd have to vaccinate 97% of the entire population to reach herd immunity, which is just not possible. So until then, the government is trying to eliminate it to protect those who are most at risk.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 19 2021 at 2:15am

The La Palma situation is a very interesting one. That land slip may sit there for the next 1000 years or it may crash into the ocean before I finish typing this. It'll be one of those moments in time that you'll remember exactly where you were when it happened.

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[url]https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/la-palma/news/141846/La-Palma-Canary-Islands-new-eruption-La-Cumbre-Vieja-volcano-erupts-for-first-time-since-1971.html[/url] or https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/la-palma/news/141846/La-Palma-Canary-Islands-new-eruption-La-Cumbre-Vieja-volcano-erupts-for-first-time-since-1971.html the Cumbre Vieja volcano is erupting...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/earthquake-swarm-la-palma-if-blows-wipes-out-us-east-coast-via-tsunami[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/earthquake-swarm-la-palma-if-blows-wipes-out-us-east-coast-via-tsunami (scroll down) The island may be breaking in two...(being updated).

[url]https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/Map/zoom.php?key=53&typ=euro&min_lat=26&max_lat=36&min_long=-20&max_long=-10&timemin=1630852661&min_mag=2&view=1#2[/url] or https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/Map/zoom.php?key=53&typ=euro&min_lat=26&max_lat=36&min_long=-20&max_long=-10&timemin=1630852661&min_mag=2&view=1#2 

[url]https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=-70.61261,-274.57031&extent=69.53452,93.16406[/url] or https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=-70.61261,-274.57031&extent=69.53452,93.16406 Also increase of seismic activity at other volcanic locations (a.o. Yellowstone, Hawaii). 

DJ-I do not know what to think of this...IF there is a "very major event" it would be between a very strong earthquake and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicxulub_crater[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicxulub_crater ...

However it also could be a "much slower" and "limited" event...Yes there may be landslides-that may even cause a tsunami-like scenario-but much more limited...and maybe several---I guess...

[url]https://english.elpais.com/science-tech/2021-09-16/authorities-warn-of-possible-volcanic-eruption-on-canary-island-of-la-palma.html[/url] or https://english.elpais.com/science-tech/2021-09-16/authorities-warn-of-possible-volcanic-eruption-on-canary-island-of-la-palma.html 

[url]https://www.rt.com/news/535264-spain-palma-island-volcano-eruption/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/news/535264-spain-palma-island-volcano-eruption/ 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 19 2021 at 1:39pm

OMG this is exciting!!!

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Great link, thank you.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 19 2021 at 9:59pm

DJ, 

-The La Palma-Cumbra Vieja eruption is ongoing. The big question is will it cause the "mega-tsunami" ? Why it not yet did ? 

Maybe "smaller eruptions" could decrease pressure ? Maybe a lot of relatively small eruptions will create lots of smaller landslides-not causing a serious tsunami ? [url]https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/la-palma/news/141895/La-Palma-Volcano-Volcanic-Ash-Advisory-ERUPTION-AT-202109191410Z-INTENSE-LAVA-FOUNTAINS-ONGOING-to-1.html[/url] or https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/la-palma/news/141895/La-Palma-Volcano-Volcanic-Ash-Advisory-ERUPTION-AT-202109191410Z-INTENSE-LAVA-FOUNTAINS-ONGOING-to-1.html It is a very serious eruption....but that in itself was not the major risk. 

The eruprion came (much) earlier then volconologists/geologists expected...Even experts do have their limits...In a very unlikely-I hope-scenario the volcano could explode. Not the landslide-but the explosion-becoming the main cause of a "super tsunami"...

There are (lots of) reasons why "once-in-a-million-year-events are that rare..."perfect storm" conditions are proberbly very unusual.

We have to keep an eye on it...Was this story sensationalistic non-news ? I do not think it is/was. Big events DO happen ! We may be lucky if that kind of events do not happen a lot in our lifetime. 

Storms [url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/[/url] or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/  "Peter" en "Rose" did form-two other systems (ex-Odette is one of them) "Sam" may show up before the next weekend. They may all stay on the Atlantic.

In2Thinair trying to say something usefull on both issues [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCNfn-3_Ai4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vCNfn-3_Ai4 peak of hurricane season...BPEarthwatch [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrJm_TyPUDE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrJm_TyPUDE he is calling the story overhyped...(but I wonder does he know the story ?) Spanish TV (in Spanish...) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9xzkf19NXo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9xzkf19NXo mentioning air problems, rocks etc...

-This pandemic-in itself allready a once in a hundred year event...

Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Cases -12%, deaths -6% weekly numbers...again some regions reporting major increases (Ukraine, Turkey, Brazil-again +24% ! Ecuador +19%). It would be welcome to know what variant is causing the increases...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 Is trying to follow this story...

Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917728-uk-more-than-50-of-deaths-from-delta-variant-are-in-the-vaccinated[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917728-uk-more-than-50-of-deaths-from-delta-variant-are-in-the-vaccinated latest; Deaths within 28 days of positive specimen date

All cases 2,542
...
Unlinked 41

<21 days post dose 1 17

≥21 days post dose 1 149

≥14 days post dose 2 1,613

Unvaccinated 722

Pages 19-20

https://assets.publishing.service.go...3_21_09_16.pdf

DJ When over 80% of a population has been vaccinated for a longer time it is "not unexpected" most serious cases are in the vaccinated. UK trends deaths still +3% 971 last week 1,003 this week. To much-so you need more restrictions-certainly with autumn/fall on its way...(But hospitals may have to crash before we see some restrictions increase..."bodies piling up" still would not bring another lockdown for "BoJo & his liberal conservatives" ...we may see a major social divide; economy versus public health in many countries.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/923852-us-media-%E2%80%9Chhs-will-determine-the-amount-of-product-each-state-and-territory-receives-on-a-weekly-basis-%E2%80%9D?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/923852-us-media-%E2%80%9Chhs-will-determine-the-amount-of-product-each-state-and-territory-receives-on-a-weekly-basis-%E2%80%9D?view=stream latest...The Biden admin is complaining that FL is using more antibodies than OK? You don't have to be a genius to compare population size between those two states. I can't explain what is going on other than the extermination of a rival's supporters. And I think the vaccine job mandates are an attempt to displace conservatives and fill their jobs with Biden admin supporters. It's all a numbers game to them. To taxpayers, it is another nightmare.

DJ I do not know enough about this story...how "bad" are things going in the US in supply of materials being "political motivated"?

-Dr.John Campbell on booster shots-pro and con's [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVtX7tY1B0U[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVtX7tY1B0U  DJ-We have to increase vaccine production and supply to countries we keep poor ! We need both boosters AND much more vaccinations in "the poor world" . Just like we need both vaccines AND restrictions...

No doubt China may try to increase vaccine production and export...wich also means booster-vaccines, long term "links" with countries we keep poor....

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_Et4PUyS94[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_Et4PUyS94 last Friday ; US Idaho-crisis and Ivermectin discussion...(in Australia).

DJ-Lots of unclear "news", uncertainty [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/black-monday-china-real-estate-entering-full-collapse-28-of-their-national-economy-expect-war-they-have-no-choice[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/black-monday-china-real-estate-entering-full-collapse-28-of-their-national-economy-expect-war-they-have-no-choice even expecting an economic crash...

Music...I am sailing (why not !) - Rod Stewart [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOt3oQ_k008[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOt3oQ_k008 "stormy waters" 1975

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 20 2021 at 6:25am



You wrote…

.”The Biden admin is complaining that FL is using more antibodies than OK? You don't have to be a genius to compare population size between those two states. I can't explain what is going on other than the extermination of a rival's supporters. And I think the vaccine job mandates are an attempt to displace conservatives and fill their jobs with Biden admin supporters. It's all a numbers game to them. To taxpayers, it is another nightmare.

DJ I do not know enough about this story...how "bad" are things going in the US in supply of materials being "political motivated"?


Key word here fair distribution…


https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/15/health/monoclonal-antibody-treatment-distribution-change-contracts/index.html


CNN)The US government is buying more doses of monoclonal antibody treatments for Covid-19, and the Biden administration is taking over distribution in order to avoid shortages of the key therapeutics. The US Department of Health and Human Services says that as of September 10, 2.17 million doses of monoclonal antibodies have been shipped to all sites, and 938,000 doses have been used since December. About 43% of the distributed doses have been used as of September 3.


An HHS spokesperson said seven states have accounted for 70% of orders for the therapy. Those seven states are Florida, Texas, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and Louisiana. 


Given this reality, we must work to ensure our supply of these life-saving therapies remains available for all states and territories, not just some," the HHS spokesperson said.

The distribution, which is similar to a system employed earlier this year, will fall to HHS, which will allocate product to states and territories each week, rather administration sites ordering them directly.

                        

This system will help maintain equitable distribution, both geographically and temporally, across the country - providing states and territories with consistent, fairly-distributed supply over the coming months.”


I note that these states have little to no restrictions and all low vaxxed.**

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 20 2021 at 9:59pm

Pixie-thanks for the info; in short some competition between states and US federal government over these antibody treatments-with 7 states having a high level of cases-using those treatments high speed so there could come shortages in the coming (worse) months ? As far as I understand it, if possible-just like vaccines-increasing production would be welcome...

On vaccines India may be able to increase vaccine production 4x its present level and restart export to neighbouring countries. (Still it may take to 2024 to get some 70/80% of global adults two vaccines...by that time boosters will be in use...).

DJ, 

In short two non-pandemic news items;

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/another-major-volcanic-eruption-alaska-s-aleutian-islands[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/another-major-volcanic-eruption-alaska-s-aleutian-islands The La Palma-Canary Islands-volcano eruption may last for weeks-if not months...[url]https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/Map/zoom.php?key=53&typ=euro&min_lat=26&max_lat=36&min_long=-20&max_long=-10&timemin=1630852661&min_mag=2&view=1#2[/url] or https://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/Map/zoom.php?key=53&typ=euro&min_lat=26&max_lat=36&min_long=-20&max_long=-10&timemin=1630852661&min_mag=2&view=1#2 (European USGS...The USGS "only" reporting quakes M4,5+ outside the US...La Palma quakes hardly get M3+...)

DJ Looking at USGS I still do "not like" the seismic situation...Are volcano systems linked-so "unrest" in one region may see increased "unrest" in other regions even at distances of 5,000 kilometer/miles away ? Solar wind, hurricanes of influence...

Maybe as info [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_Krakatoa[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_KrakatoaThe sound was claimed to be heard in 50 different locations around the world and the sound wave is recorded to have travelled the globe seven times over.

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_Krakatoa#Tsunamis_and_distant_effects[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_Krakatoa#Tsunamis_and_distant_effects

Smaller waves were recorded on tidal gauges as far away as the English Channel.[14] These occurred too soon to be remnants of the initial tsunamis and may have been caused by concussive air waves from the eruption. These air waves circled the globe several times and were still detectable on barographs five days later.

DJ-Of course the 1883 world was much different from now...See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/923882-canary-islands-lava-from-erupting-volcano-destroys-homes[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/923882-canary-islands-lava-from-erupting-volcano-destroys-homes DJ-Sensationalism can give wrong info...on the other hand seeing everything bad as sensationalism may also result in unrealistic views...(So I try to get good info).

AUKUS

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/09/the-fallout-from-the-aukus-deal.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/09/the-fallout-from-the-aukus-deal.html DJ-A crazy story...Perth WA would become a US navy base...Also positioning missiles in Australia (against China Australia's main trading partner). Some of the (further) damage;

Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore not happy with more nuclear activity in that region...it is making the world less save !

After China the EU is/was second trading partner of Australia...AUKUS is the end of talks on EU-Australia free trade agreements..

China will get iron-ore from Africa...stop buying it from Australia...

Ukraine, Poland, Baltics rethink their position towards Russia now the US is changing Russia for China as "enemy #1"

The EU wants/needs more trade with China...by land (via Russia-rail) and Sea (Arctic route).

Iran now full member of SCO, it was allready under Russian/Chinese protection (For Russia link to Indian Ocean, China link to Europe/Africa - proberbly the main reason why USI=US-Saudi-Israel did not attack Iran). 

India and Japan did think they also would be seen as "equal partners" by US/UK...but US/UK go for "white, english speaking partners only"...

DJ-The outcome of US "foreign policy mistakes" will be the US more and more getting isolated..."What if" the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation ; The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), or Shanghai Pact,[2] is a Eurasian politicaleconomic, and security alliance. It is the world's largest regional organisation in geographic scope and population, covering three-fifths of the Eurasian continent, 40% of the human population, and more than 20% of global GDP would go for the € "Euro" as "strategic currency" so linking the SCO with the EU (500 million people) ? An EU-SCO "group" would "cover" over half the global population, dwarf the US...

-This pandemic; 

Trends [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table cases worldwide -8%, deaths -6%...However; 

Brazil cases +28%, deaths +19%, Turkey cases +17%, deaths -3% - proberbly linked with Ukraine cases +68%, deaths +56%. Some regions (Africa, Eastern Europe, Latin America) do see sharo increases...Also in some larger countries regional differences may be major...In the US some states are disaster zones, others see high vaccinations=limited cases...Proberbly also in India etc. 

By vaccinating those at risk first-by now-those groups may need booster vaccines...Some countries did start that..

Another major issue is that some groups do not want to get vaccinated. In most countries this is not realy a political issue (only in the US). More religion or distrust of government issues. Also language/status and fear of needles can be factors...

Here in NL vaccination busses go into poorer urban area's where vaccination level is a problem. In general the idea to include children in vaccination 5y/o+ is getting accepted-with worldwide tens of thousends of children already infected and ill. 

That Delta is a major risk for children was known since april when that variant proberbly killed millions in India...So-I find it totally insane-almost half a year later the idea of vaccinating children is getting accepted...

Is "can't fix stupid" a Budhist mantra ? 

Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/923904-high-genetic-barrier-to-sars-cov-2-polyclonal-neutralizing-antibody-escape[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/923904-high-genetic-barrier-to-sars-cov-2-polyclonal-neutralizing-antibody-escape ; By combining plasma-selected spike substitutions, we generated synthetic ‘polymutant’ spike protein pseudotypes that resisted polyclonal antibody neutralization to a similar degree as circulating variants of concern (VOC). By aggregating VOC-associated and antibody-selected spike substitutions into a single polymutant spike protein, we show that 20 naturally occurring mutations in SARS-CoV-2 spike are sufficient to generate pseudotypes with near-complete resistance to the polyclonal neutralizing antibodies generated by convalescents or mRNA vaccine recipients. 

Strikingly, however, plasma from individuals who had been infected and subsequently received mRNA vaccination, neutralized pseudotypes bearing this highly resistant SARS-CoV-2 polymutant spike, or diverse sarbecovirus spike proteins. 

Thus, optimally elicited human polyclonal antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 should be resilient to substantial future SARS-CoV-2 variation and may confer protection against potential future sarbecovirus pandemics.

DJ This may mean better effective vaccines/treatments ?

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/tuberculosis/923903-tuberculosis-in-times-of-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/tuberculosis/923903-tuberculosis-in-times-of-covid-19 ; The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread disruptions to tuberculosis (TB) care and service delivery in 2020, setting back progress in the fight against TB by several years. 

As newer COVID-19 variants continue to devastate many low and middle-income countries in 2021, the extent of this setback is likely to increase. Despite these challenges, the TB community can draw on the comprehensive approaches used to manage COVID-19 to help restore progress and mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on TB.

 Our team developed the ‘Swiss Cheese Model for Ending TB’ to illustrate that it is only through multisectoral collaborations that address the personal, societal and health system layers of care that we will end TB.

 In this paper, we examine how COVID-19 has impacted the different layers of TB care presented in the model and explore how we can leverage some of the lessons and outcomes of the COVID-19 pandemic to strengthen the global TB response.

DJ It would be welcome to develop a strategy to not only deal with CoViD but also trying to limit other diseases...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923896-cidrap-india-to-resume-covid-19-vaccine-exports-next-month[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/923896-cidrap-india-to-resume-covid-19-vaccine-exports-next-month ; India's health ministry today said the country will resume COVID-19 vaccine exports in October, a promising supply development that comes ahead of high-level talks this week on solving vaccine inequity gaps.

-

India's domestic vaccine campaign has gained traction, with 60% of adults having received at least one dose. The country is the world's biggest vaccine maker.

-

Bat study hints at earlier recombination

In a preprint study that hasn't gone through peer review, a team from Laos and partners at the Pasteur Institute identified three new family members of SARS-CoV-2 in bats in Laos.
Their findings are based on sampling of bats in caves in northern Laos. The sequences from three different Rhinolophus (horseshoe) bat species were very close to early strains of SARS-CoV-2. Researchers hypothesized that SARS-CoV-2 could have resulted from recombination of viruses from the bats, which live in the extensive limestone cave systems of South East Asia and South China.
The newly identified bat species seem to have the same potential for infecting humans as early SARS-CoV-2 strains, they wrote.
A coronavirus found in bats in China, called RaTG13, is still the closest known relative to SARS-CoV-2. The virus was identified in 2013 in bat droppings from a mining cave in China's Yunnan Province, located in southwestern China.

DJ China may have taken over India as the largest global vaccine producer. "The West" is simply not paying much attention to developments outside its tunnelvision....I think we have to take China serious (with a critical look-you need to take a critical look at all news !). China may have had news in 2019 on the virus-but in Chinese...not in English ! The border area of China with Vietnam, Laos etc. is rainforest, jungle...so if CoViD-19 is bat related it could have started in that region...I would not be surprised if we would learn some early cases in 2019 showed up outside China in other SE-Asia countries...maybe even reaching tourists in (northern) Thailand ? (And so explaning also early cases outside China-on top of travel related cases from China in 2019). DJ-On a critcal note-China does not report Covid-deaths in the Delta-crisis. I put a ? at that...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923870-zoo-atlanta-believes-fully-vaccinated-ppe-wearing-asymptomatically-infected-caretaker-infected-gorillas-with-sars-cov-2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923870-zoo-atlanta-believes-fully-vaccinated-ppe-wearing-asymptomatically-infected-caretaker-infected-gorillas-with-sars-cov-2 ; While it cannot be known with certainty how the gorillas acquired the virus, the Animal Care and Veterinary Teams believe the infections originated with a COVID-positive care team member. The team member is fully vaccinated, was wearing Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), and was asymptomatic on the day of reporting to work.

The infections occurred in an area of the Zoo where COVID safety protocols are already at their most stringent. The use of PPE when working with great apes was already a standard practice at Zoo Atlanta due to their susceptibility to many of the same illnesses experienced by humans, including the common cold and influenza. Although masks and gloves were already worn by the Gorilla Care Team when team members were inside the gorillas’ indoor areas or preparing outdoor habitats, additional preventive measures, such as N95 masks, Tyvek® suits, modified cleaning protocols and increased ventilation in the gorilla building, have been instituted. Team members never share the same physical space with the gorillas, and all interactions take place on opposite sides of a barrier with social distancing in place where practical. Team members also adhere to strict PPE protocols and social distancing guidelines among themselves, and PPE being used by the Gorilla Care Team is the same as what would be seen in human healthcare environments.

DJ Delta+ variant ? Also may question even more "vaccine passports"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923877-china-1-000-medical-personnel-transferred-to-tong-an-district-xiamen-fujian-to-support-covid-19-control-efforts-september-20-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923877-china-1-000-medical-personnel-transferred-to-tong-an-district-xiamen-fujian-to-support-covid-19-control-efforts-september-20-2021 DJ-China is still trying to contain Delta outbreaks...with the above Atlanta Zoo story "Delta" may allready be hard to contain...China did vaccinate over 1 billion of its population...May be amongst the better vacinated countries however Chines vaccines may be "far from perfect"; some require three vaccinations...proberbly massive testing and booster vaccines will be the China strategy. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/923876-bats-making-a-comeback-in-pennsylvania[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/923876-bats-making-a-comeback-in-pennsylvania ; The return of bats to Pennsylvania will mean less pest insects and bugs that can damage crops, forcing farmers to use more pesticide. Bats eat tons of insects — about 25 percent of their body weight with each feeding.

DJ Bats are not only "bad news" also have a function !

More on animals and CoViD;

[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/08/articles/animals/other-animals/sars-cov-2-in-deer-usa/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/08/articles/animals/other-animals/sars-cov-2-in-deer-usa/

In the big picture, is SARS-CoV-2 in white-tailed deer a problem?

It’s hard to say. Currently, human-to-human transmission is still the problem. New mutations are going to develop in people because of widespread transmission internationally, and until we have good vaccine coverage everywhere (not just rich countries) we’ll have persistent and high risk of new variants emerging in people.

Deer probably contribute little to the risk, at least at this point.  For a deer variant to be of concern, it has to find and infect a susceptible person, and human-deer contact is fairly limited in the grand scheme of things. It’s possible, but a susceptible person is still more likely to be infected by another person than by a deer at this point.

While SARS-CoV-2 remains a human pandemic, deer are likely a niche issue. As the virus eventually gets controlled in humans (we hope), then wildlife reservoirs become more important, if they can be a source of new variants.

DJ Problem is we allready have variants with R0 of 5 to 8-and those variants may show up increasingly in non-human hosts. Further mutations there are VERY unwelcome ! Even if most of those mutations proberbly will weaken the virus ! It is simply to much of a risk !

[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/09/articles/animals/cats/covid-review-in-animals-updated-part-1-cats/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/09/articles/animals/cats/covid-review-in-animals-updated-part-1-cats/ ; When we look at antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in cats in infected households, the apparent infection rates go up. The Texas study reported a seroprevalence (the percentage of cats with antibodies) of 44% (7/16), and the seroprevalence in our preliminary data from Canada was even higher at 67%.  Other studies have had variable results (for example,  a study from Peru found a seroprevalence of 17-30% among cats from infected households, depending on how the testing was interpreted), but the take-home message is that human-to-cat transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is pretty common.

-

Can cats infect other animals with SARS-CoV-2?

Yes. Experimentally, cats have been shown to infect other cats. That’s also been seen outside the lab, such as the high-profile outbreak in lions and tigers in the Bronx Zoo, where cat-to-cat transmission was more likely than all the big cats being individually infected by people. We also investigated one large group of infected cats, and it’s most likely there was cat-to-cat spread there too, rather than all human-to-cat infections.

Can cats infect people with SARS-CoV-2?

We still don’t know for sure if cat-to-human infection occurs. Since cats can infect other cats, we have to assume there’s some risk of them infecting people, but sorting out how much of a risk there is is a challenge. If someone got infected by a cat, it would be very difficult to determine that they got it from a cat vs a human contact, because the virus is still circulating widely in people, and contact with the infected cat would probably coincide with contact with that infected cat’s (probably infected) owner.

DJ We did see with minks they can spread the virus to other minks AND other mammals; humans, cats...Non-human-hosts catching Delta(+) or worse variants increase risks for further mutations, evading immunity. But ALSO increase further spread to other non-human-hosts ! You do not want CoViD-19 in pigs, cows (or birds ?).

I did not see a new video from Dr. John Campbell...[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing on Texas, Florida now each seeing more deaths that the US had in the Vietnam war...US reported total deaths may soon be over 700,000-real number most likely allready over 1 million (but early cases/lack of testing is resulting in lower numbers...)

[url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 Over 43% of UK cases in 0-19 y/o age group-still some claim "natural infection would be better then vaccination"...DJ-That idea is crazy if you look further then children dying from Covid-proberbly still a small number that die -directly-from CoViD (indirect would be MIS-C taking months after infection). Long CoViD and damage due to infection is very serious in also under 19 y/o age group ! 

IF you would go for "natural immunity" a (still bad) choice could be to see infection AFTER vaccination. 

DJ-My view/opinion-as a non-expert-on this pandemic. Vaccines do a very good job ! If we could vaccinate 80-90% of the population above 4 y/o AND go for (travel) restrictions we still "can beat the virus"....

It may be the last chance to avoid a "permanent (worsening) pandemic" bringing disease and deaths to 19th century levels or even worse ! In my-very limited-non-science-view this corona virus pandemic WILL go exponential if we do not stop it ! 

So we have to STOP THE SPREAD or face not only SARS-2, but also new SARS-types in lots of hosts jumping allover the place with a R0 of 8+, immunity evasion-so reinfecting over and over again, and other diseases becoming more and more a risk as well. 

This pandemic may soon become an even bigger risk then climate collapse allready is ! 

Underestimating risks has been a major factor ending civilizations !

Music; Wake Up, Little Susie-Wake Up !!! The Everly Brothers-1957 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1fImXAeS-s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1fImXAeS-s 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2021 at 12:53pm

There is no evidence that Covid is a real risk to children. The vast majority have a very minor illness. There'll always be a few who are vulnerable but the majority are not. Certainly children can catch it but all the data shows that the risk of a severe illness increases with age.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 21 2021 at 9:51pm

[url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 ; And no this isn't a 'disagreement' or 'different interpretation of evidence'. This is dangerous pseudoscience: 'naturally acquired herd immunity is desirable' 'masks don't work' 'mitigations not needed after vaccines' 'children aren't affected by COVID-19 & don't need protection'

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924074-covid-%E2%80%98high-alert%E2%80%99-warning-as-more-than-100-000-pupils-in-england-miss-school[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924074-covid-%E2%80%98high-alert%E2%80%99-warning-as-more-than-100-000-pupils-in-england-miss-school ; Headteachers say the government needs to be on “high alert” to curb school Covid outbreaks, after more than 100,000 children were absent with confirmed or suspected infections last week – the highest number for England during the pandemic.

The figures from the Department for Educationshowed that fewer than 92% of pupils were present in classrooms on 16 September, with 59,000 absent with confirmed cases of Covid-19 and a further 45,000 off with suspected cases.

In total, 122,000 children were absent from state schools for Covid-related reasons last week, including 16,000 marked off as isolating and another 2,000 “due to attendance restrictions being in place to manage an outbreak,” according to the DfE.

https://www.theguardian.com/educatio...id-covid-surge

DJ A high number of positive tests does not mean severe illness. However there are reports of children at ICU, MIS-C etc. Good statistics-also on age-of hospital/ICU cases are needed (and some US states do not make such statistics...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924061-cidrap-pediatric-covid-19-case-surge-continues-across-us[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924061-cidrap-pediatric-covid-19-case-surge-continues-across-usToday, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) released its latest numbers on how many American children are being infected with COVID-19 and said nearly 226,000 child COVID-19 cases were reported from Sep 9 to 16, the third highest number of child cases in a week since the pandemic began.
Children represented 25.7% of the weekly reported cases.
"After declining in early summer, child cases have increased exponentially, with over 925,000 cases in the past 4 weeks," the AAP said. In total, roughly 5.5 million US children have been infected with COVID-19 since the pandemic began.
Though severe illness is very rare, the APP warned, "There is an urgent need to collect more data on longer-term impacts of the pandemic on children, including ways the virus may harm the long-term physical health of infected children, as well as its emotional and mental health effects."


DJ See also [url]https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus-outbreak-and-kids[/url] or https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus-outbreak-and-kids 

The vaccines should be "free from profit" under emergency law. Vaccinating children, pets, cattle etc. is a step you do not make easy. There should not be an agenda made by shareholders behind it...Cuba is vaccinating children from 2 y/o+ and there is no profit motive there...("big pharma = state pharma"). 

DJ; 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/getting-worse-lapalma-volcano-update-lava-heading-to-sea-toxic-gasses-to-emit-on-contact-166-homes-destroyed-so-far-quakes-getting-worse[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/getting-worse-lapalma-volcano-update-lava-heading-to-sea-toxic-gasses-to-emit-on-contact-166-homes-destroyed-so-far-quakes-getting-worse 

USGS [url]https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000fd9v/executive[/url] or https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000fd9v/executive M5,9 in Australia ! Very unusual [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Buller_(Victoria)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Buller_(Victoria) part of [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Dividing_Range[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Dividing_Range 

[url]https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-22/live-melbourne-earthquake-victoria-nsw-canberra/100481780[/url] or https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-22/live-melbourne-earthquake-victoria-nsw-canberra/100481780 see also [url]https://www.emsc-csem.org/#2[/url] or https://www.emsc-csem.org/#2 

The pandemic;

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table  Global cases -9%, deaths -8%. Some regions report strong increases; Eastern Europe, Turkey/Ukraine, Brazil-some other Latin American countries...

Global cases going down could be explained due to less testing-however lower number of deaths reported indicate we are in a "low" between pandemic waves. It would be more then welcome if there was no other wave. As a precaution it would be wise to act as if the other wave will come and we do all we can to limit the damage, suffering and loss of lives...

When I look at countries US reporting 120,579 cases (of a global 470,099) and 1,927 deaths (out of a global number of 8,223). The UK reporting 31,564 cases and 203 deaths. #3 in this list is Turkey 29,338 cases and 260 deaths. Those are high numbers !

If I can find time I may try to find more info on variants...often "Delta" and "Delta+" is presented as one number...Delta may cause several peaks...

I believed "we could not vaccinate ourselves out of this pandemic" but for now statistics may indicate "vaccines make a very major difference". Israel booster vaccines (cases -24%, deaths -31%) may bring "long term" immunity. A second "Janssen/J&J" "booster" would increase protection up to 94% against severe disease...

YES-Vaccinated people still can catch and spread the virus but in a "group effect" it does slow down the spread drasticly. The pressure on healthcare is caused by the unvaccinated. In some regions it is allready a crisis. In other regions "normal care", "delayed care" and Covid has Health Care on the maximum of capacity ! 

Non Pharma Interventions were very succesfull in the past in "keeping the virus out = low numbers". A combination of NPI AND vaccines may be needed to get this pandemic under control...

The bad news may be spread of Covid in animals-of the radar...this may "boomarang" back to humans...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/cdc/924078-outbreak-of-sars-cov-2-b-1-617-2-delta-variant-infections-among-incarcerated-persons-in-a-federal-prison-%E2%80%94-texas-july%E2%80%93august-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/cdc/924078-outbreak-of-sars-cov-2-b-1-617-2-delta-variant-infections-among-incarcerated-persons-in-a-federal-prison-%E2%80%94-texas-july%E2%80%93august-2021 DJ-The "disease burden" is spread very unequal. Those ending up in prison have a much higher risk of being/getting infected...protection-in many countries-is still related to income & education. Higher income, better education is more willing to take the vaccine.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/924077-covid-19-origins-chinese-study-uncovers-over-140-bat-coronaviruses-but-says-none-linked-to-pandemic[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/924077-covid-19-origins-chinese-study-uncovers-over-140-bat-coronaviruses-but-says-none-linked-to-pandemic

  • Since January 2020, team has tested samples from 4,700 bats in regions across the country, finding close relationship with Sars but not Covid-19
  • Scientists suggest viruses considered closest to Sars-CoV-2 are ‘extremely rare’ in bats in China

Chinese scientists have uncovered 142 bat coronaviruses related to the one that causes Sars, but none closely linked to the virus that causes Covid-19, according to the largest release of related research from within China since the start of the pandemic.

In a paper uploaded on the preprint server Research Square on Monday, researchers from the Institute of Pathogen Biology in Beijing revealed they had collected and tested samples from more than 4,700 bats in regions across the country since January 2020 adding to the thousands tested since 2016.

The paper is the first to provide key details about the scope of bat sampling to find close ancestors of Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, conducted since the outbreak was first detected in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in late 2019.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/scie...s-over-140-bat

DJ A French study in Laos did find some virus in bats maybe with a closer link to Covid-19...South China-Laos-Vietnam border is rainforrest...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923977-us-death-toll-from-covid-19-just-surpassed-that-of-the-1918-flu-pandemic-september-20-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923977-us-death-toll-from-covid-19-just-surpassed-that-of-the-1918-flu-pandemic-september-20-2021The global confirmed fatality count for COVID is about 5 million. The actual number of COVID deaths worldwide is probably 15-20 million and might end up double that or more by the time this is over.

The world has perhaps four times the population than it did in 1918, but COVID has perhaps one-half or one-third the fatality rate of the 1918 flu. I wouldn't be surprised if the global death toll for COVID exceeded that of the 1918 flu by the time this was over.

DJ The numbers for the Spanish Flu go from 20 million to 100 million deaths...US Spanish Flu deaths were put at (around) 675,000. The essential point should be this is a very serious pandemic ! It is far from over with winter on its way !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021?view=stream latest; positive test -5,7%, deaths +4,8% last week the UK did see 1,009 CoViD deaths-203 per day. Hospital cases -11,6%, testing -10,8%....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-coronavirus/924032-virus-evol-adaptation-of-the-endemic-coronaviruses-hcov-oc43-and-hcov-229e-to-the-human-host[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-coronavirus/924032-virus-evol-adaptation-of-the-endemic-coronaviruses-hcov-oc43-and-hcov-229e-to-the-human-host ; Four coronaviruses (HCoV-OC43, HCoV-HKU1, HCoV-NL63, and HCoV-229E) are endemic in human populations. 

All these viruses are seasonal and generate short-term immunity. Like the highly pathogenic coronaviruses, the endemic coronaviruses have zoonotic origins. 

Thus, understanding the evolutionary dynamics of these human viruses might provide insight into the future trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 evolution. Because the zoonotic sources of HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-229E are known, we applied a population genetics-phylogenetic approach to investigate which selective events accompanied the divergence of these viruses from the animal ones.

 Results indicated that positive selection drove the evolution of some accessory proteins, as well as of the membrane proteins. 

However, the spike proteins of both viruses and the hemagglutinin-esterase (HE) of HCoV-OC43 represented the major selection targets. Specifically, for both viruses, most positively selected sites map to the receptor-binding domains (RBDs) and are polymorphic. 

Molecular dating for the HCoV-229E spike protein indicated that RBD Classes I, II, III, and IV emerged 3-9 years apart. 

However, since the appearance of Class V (with much higher binding affinity), around 25 years ago, limited genetic diversity accumulated in the RBD. 

These different time intervals are not fully consistent with the hypothesis that HCoV-229E spike evolution was driven by antigenic drift. 

An alternative, not mutually exclusive possibility is that strains with higher affinity for the cellular receptor have out-competed strains with lower affinity. 

The evolution of the HCoV-OC43 spike protein was also suggested to undergo antigenic drift. 

However, we also found abundant signals of positive selection in HE. 

Whereas such signals might result from antigenic drift, as well, previous data showing co-evolution of the spike protein with HE suggest that optimization for human cell infection also drove the evolution of this virus. 

These data provide insight into the possible trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 evolution, especially in case the virus should become endemic.

DJ Understanding how other Corona Viral Diseases develop/mutate may help understanding the present SARS-2/CoViD-19 pandemic. 

DJ in scenario's I try to get info to try and maybe get a glimpse on what the coming time (months-maybe a year ?) could bring. 

I am NOT an expert-just trying to make sense. I did expect reopening society/schools would see much more cases...but the picture is very diverse. In some countries (Canada, Belgium) cases are going up-even with high number of vaccinations...maybe to little restrictions. In the US low vaccination-vaccination became "political" is a major problem...

India, Iran, South Africa, Mexico all report cases going down with limited vaccinations-and testing not worse then it was before (often it was and is "very limited"). 

So-to be optimistic-maybe vaccine- and natural-immunity are making some difference ? But regions with cases going up (a.o. Brazil) could be seeing newer variants evading immunity better ? 

A major unknown factor also is in non-human hosts. I understand a lot of "experts" expect some sort of increase before the end of this year. Increasing vaccinations in "missed groups" (children, better way of dealing with fear of needles, some orthodox groups) and "boosters" may further reduce the next wave. 

If an immune evading variant would be able to "take over" both Delta and widespread immunity the outlook gets a lot worse. So for that matter "we" should do all we can to keep numbers as low as possible.

-Dr. John Campbell on vaccinating children from age 5 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsGLNNewJlU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IsGLNNewJlU info under the video-and YES vaccines are medical interventions-not without any risk. Even if-in many places-risk for children is "limited" still vaccinating them would help to limit this pandemic. 

Risks of vaccinations is still much less then risks of getting Covid-19 is the picture I have. Certainly when you also consider MIS-C, long CoViD, organ damage...

-Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYo4IBqmh5E[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYo4IBqmh5E A cover version from a music school-It Ain't Over Till Its Over ...[url]https://www.udla.edu.ec/[/url] or https://www.udla.edu.ec/ Universidad De Las Américas in Ecuador...



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 22 2021 at 9:58pm

DJ,

It may be hard-even for experts-to get a realistic view on risks. [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/wftv-tv-weatherman-calls-our-tsunami-graphic-not-real-as-he-gives-false-info-to-orlando-viewers[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/wftv-tv-weatherman-calls-our-tsunami-graphic-not-real-as-he-gives-false-info-to-orlando-viewers.. 

Looking at [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megatsunami#List_of_megatsunamis[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megatsunami#List_of_megatsunamis "megatsunami's"; 

A megatsunami is a tsunami with an initial wave amplitude (height) measured in many tens, hundreds, and possibly up to thousands of metres. A megatsunami is a separate class of event from an ordinary tsunami and is caused by different physical mechanisms.

Normal tsunamis result from displacement of the sea floor due to plate tectonics. Powerful earthquakes may cause the sea floor to displace vertically on the order of tens of metres, which in turn displaces the water column above and leads to the formation of a tsunami. Ordinary tsunamis have a small wave height offshore and generally pass unnoticed at sea, forming only a slight swell on the order of 30 cm (12 in) above the normal sea surface. In deep water it is possible that a tsunami could pass beneath a ship without the crew of the vessel noticing. As it approaches land, the wave height of an ordinary tsunami increases dramatically as the sea floor slopes upward and the base of the wave pushes the water column above it upwards. Ordinary tsunamis, even those associated with the most powerful strike-slip earthquakes, typically do not reach heights in excess of 30 m (98 ft).[2]

By contrast, megatsunamis are caused by landslides and other impact events that displace large volumes of water, resulting in waves that may exceed the height of an ordinary tsunami by tens or even hundreds of metres. Underwater earthquakes or volcanic eruptions do not normally generate megatsunamis, but landslides next to bodies of water resulting from earthquakes or volcanic eruptions can, since they cause a much larger amount of water displacement. If the landslide or impact occurs in a limited body of water, as happened at the Vajont Dam (1963) and in Lituya Bay (1958) then the water may be unable to disperse and one or more exceedingly large waves may result.

DJ They are a real-but limited-risk. A 50 meter wave hitting the US would be something of a once in a 10,000 year event ? This means we do not know much about it...even experts using complex computer models may not find one clear answer...two many factors at play. 

I think/hope the risk for a "La Palma tsunami" may be less then 1%...but not 0%. 

Insurance companies hardly offer insurance against meteor strikes-chances are very small but if it happens damage may be very major. I believe in some statistics the idea is people getting killed by a meteor strike is larger then for being killed by lightning...Lightning may kill maybe a "few hundred people per year"...a meteor strike could billions in one strike...

If people all would live a hundred years experiencing a once in a million year event becomes 1 in 10,000 during that life span. (1,000,000 : 100 = 10,000).

-This pandemic-scenario's ;

Based on what I did read/learn so far (a.o. UK SAGE study [url]https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-94-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-22-july-2020/sage-94-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-22-july-2021[/url] or https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/sage-94-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-22-july-2020/sage-94-minutes-coronavirus-covid-19-response-22-july-2021 ) gives me-as a non expert- the "impression" ;

5% chance we may be allready on the end of the pandemic. Natural/vaccine immunity and lots of people changing social behavior gives virus/variants little room to spread or cause much harm...I think I may be a bit optimistic here...

Other two options are pandemic goes on on the same level as it did since early 2020...a sort of balance...increase of vaccines/restrictions may be enough to deal with an increase of cases...local/regional actions...maybe 20% ??? 10% ???

The third option-I hate to say/see is this pandemic getting worse. New variants evading immunity, showing up in non human AND human hosts, make this pandemic uncontrollable...

I can think of option 3A, 3B etc...with option 3A still close to option 2-new vaccines, new treatments are found and can deal with new global waves of this pandemic...we still may find a way to get to "balance-scenario-2" and even further to getting out of this pandemic...but it may take several years, see many lives lost...

In the worst case scenario 3 we may not survive this pandemic...maybe only a very small group of people in "bubbles" or with some sort of immunity survive...

If we do not take risks serious problems get bigger. Climate collapse by now may be "uncontrolable" for humans. We may be "lucky" with some unforseen feedbacks...limiting temperature rise enough so we may get some sort of restored balance...with human actions no longer the major factor anymore...(of course we still will be able to ruin things...).

As allways-I hope I am "over cautious" , to pessimistic, very, very wrong ! I am also NOT an expert...just trying to make sense...

-On "AUKUS" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ie9oDiiHsVM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ie9oDiiHsVM  and [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/09/what-happens-when-china-becomes-number-one.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/09/what-happens-when-china-becomes-number-one.html  DJ-Growing doubts on the "wisdom" of the Australia-UK-US new anti-China pact...while the EU and many countries are increasing trade with China.

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ global reported cases at 528,265, with 9,319 deaths being (under)reported...of wich the US has 133,620 cases and 2,228 deaths. Today the US will get over the 700,000 reported Covid-deaths...(with "pandemic deaths" you may include all those who died because of this pandemic. So also due to other diseases not being treated in time because of the pandemic. "Excess deaths" is the number of people that died above the expected statistical norm...If in a country on a normal day 1,000 people die-during this pandemic 1,200 excess deaths for such a day would be 200...just statistics...).

UK reporting 34,460 new cases-with decreased testing-and 166 deaths. Brazil doing worse 36,473 cases, 839 deaths and a fascist US supported dictator...

Trends; US cases -16%, deaths -4%. UK cases and deaths 0%, Brazil cases +47%, deaths -11% ...what is happening in Brazil ? Delta+ ? New variants ? (The Japan/US/Kentucky R.1 may be a Delta+ variant ??? [url]https://deadline.com/2021/09/r-1-new-covid-variant-u-s-japan-1234841685/[/url] or https://deadline.com/2021/09/r-1-new-covid-variant-u-s-japan-1234841685/  "deadline" may be a bizarre title during a pandemic...)

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ The US did see over 300,000 cases on a day january 8, 4,485 deaths on january 12...both linked to the Alpha/UK variant...vaccination still had to show effects...

Of the 528,265 global cases, 9,319 global reported deaths "the America's" had 168,088 + 44,203 = 212,291 cases and 3,367 + 1.076  = 4,443 deaths. Almost 40% of cases, 50% of global deaths in the America's with less the 1/7th of the global population. 

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923429-china-covid-19-outbreaks-in-putian-xiamen-quanzhou-city-recently-fujian-province-september-10-nhc-sending-working-group?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/923429-china-covid-19-outbreaks-in-putian-xiamen-quanzhou-city-recently-fujian-province-september-10-nhc-sending-working-group?view=stream latest; Due to the need for epidemic prevention and control, Xiamen Metro Line 2 Jiangtou Station is closed

DJ China is reporting an increase of cases by 33%; last week 330, this week 438...still claiming no recent deaths on a population of 1,446 million...I do think China is taking this pandemic VERY serious ! And yes-they may be not giving all the numbers-have a defination as asymptomatic positive person is NOT a case...but countries make their own definations...death within 4 weeks after positive test-otherwise "Covid did not kill you" I believe is used both in the UK and Russia...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924163-a-new-us-japan-variant-to-watch[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924163-a-new-us-japan-variant-to-watch DJ-Also discussed in latest news ? The R.1 "Japan variant" showed up march this year. Is it now seen as a variant of Delta+ ? (With dozens of AY. sub variants ?) Or will it be seen as a new variant ? [url]https://www.newsweek.com/dangerously-mutated-covid-r1-variant-detected-47-us-states-1631614[/url] or https://www.newsweek.com/dangerously-mutated-covid-r1-variant-detected-47-us-states-1631614

According to Outbreak.info, a website that collects data on COVID variants, as of September 21, R.1 has now infected more than 10,567 people around the world and has been detected in 47 states.

Maryland was found to have the highest number of cases, with 399 cases being detected since it was first found in the country.

In total, 2,259 Americans have been found with the R.1 strain which was first detected in the country on March 15, 2020. The latest case to be detected in the U.S. was on August 6 and was found in 0.5 percent of cases.

Outbreak.info also reported the strain has been found in at least 31 countries worldwide, including China, India and many nations in western Europe.

-

R.1 contains the W152L mutation in a region of the spike protein that is the target of antibodies that could reduce their effectiveness, according to the CDC.

The W152L mutation was also present in a minor variant of the Delta strain that was detected in India.

R.1 also shares a mutation with other variants, namely C241U, NSP12: P323L and D614G. D614G causes increased infections while it is not known what effect the other two have. All three mutations have been detected in strains that superseded the original Wuhan strain.

DJ Proberbly more studies to follow. Also keeping an eye on the increased immune escape. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924161-ga-kicked-in-the-ribs-harassed-at-vaccine-sites-health-care-workers-are-tired-of-new-normal[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924161-ga-kicked-in-the-ribs-harassed-at-vaccine-sites-health-care-workers-are-tired-of-new-normal ; The Albany, Ga., hospital — among the earliest and worst hit by coronavirus surge — has seen a recognizable increase in both verbal and physical attacks against its staff over the past 18 months, she said.

“Our health care workers, they're already working extremely hard, day-in and day-out, to take care of those that need it most,” Reed said. “So dealing with a violent or aggressive patient just increases that stress level even more.”

But the assaults on health care workers go far beyond words. In many cases, hospitals say, medical staff are left with injuries.

DJ In many countries HCW-ers are stopping working in that kind of high risk-low pay jobs..."Living with the virus" insanity is destroying healthcare...putting them in an impossible position to do "normal job", delayed jobs and Covid cases often with less budget, staff...

Countries with decreasing public healthcare-due to "political dogma's" - see a higher number of cases/deaths...US, UK, Brazil may fall in this group a.o. With that this pandemic has become a political problem. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/923882-canary-islands-lava-from-erupting-volcano-destroys-homes?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/923882-canary-islands-lava-from-erupting-volcano-destroys-homes?view=stream latests; Geologists have been hard at work determining the possible consequences of the volcanic eruption on the ecosystems on the island. Geologists have found that the water surrounding the island, especially the area close to the volcano has seen a nosedive in ph from around seven to four; meaning the water is increasingly acidic.

It is only expected to decrease further when the lava meets the ocean, releasing without a cloud of possibly toxic gases.

-

Sulfur dioxide cloud from La Palma eruption heading for Europe

A cloud of sulfur dioxide could reach the south east coast of Spain in two days entering over Murcia and spreading along the Levant coast. The entire peninsula is expected to be covered by the cloud by Friday. The small number of SO2 particles will not present a health risk to the population.

DJ See also ; For anyone interested in a deeper look at why Cumbre Vieja is a megatsunami risk.
https://www.es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/La_Palma_grl.pdf The pollution comes on top of other pollution...in combination with a wildfire airquality may get "realy bad"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/pollution-incl-gulf-of-mexico-oil-disaster/924156-babies-have-10-times-more-microplastics-in-their-poo-than-adults-study-finds[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/pollution-incl-gulf-of-mexico-oil-disaster/924156-babies-have-10-times-more-microplastics-in-their-poo-than-adults-study-findsMicroplastics, tiny fragments of plastic less than 5mm in size, are a hidden form of pollution known to be contaminating waterways and the world's oceans - and now, scientists say, the human digestive system.

... Both adult and infant samples contained roughly the same average level of polycarbonate (PC) microplastics, according to the research published in Environmental Science & Technology Letters journal of the American Chemical Society.

..."Infants could be exposed to higher levels of microplastics through their extensive use of products such as bottles, teethers and toys," according to the researchers, but they say "larger studies are needed to corroborate these findings".

DJ "further studies", "larger studies" = kicking the can down the road, not solving the problem. Microplastics is a known problem for decades...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/924145-covid-19-llama-antibodies-have-significant-potential-as-coronavirus-treatment-with-new-research-hailed[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/924145-covid-19-llama-antibodies-have-significant-potential-as-coronavirus-treatment-with-new-research-hailedLlamas produce a unique kind of antibody which scientists believe could offer a new frontline treatment against COVID-19, administered via a nasal spray.

Nanobodies, a smaller and simpler form of antibody produced by llamas and camels, can effectively target the novel coronavirus, new research published in the journal Nature Communication has found.

Scientists at the Rosalind Franklin Institute in the UK have identified short chains of these molecules that can significantly reduce signs of COVID-19 when given to other infected animals.

DJ Welcome news !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/who-oms/924150-new-who-global-air-quality-guidelines-aim-to-save-millions-of-lives-from-air-pollution[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/who-oms/924150-new-who-global-air-quality-guidelines-aim-to-save-millions-of-lives-from-air-pollution ; New World Health Organization (WHO) Global Air Quality Guidelines (AQGs) provide clear evidence of the damage air pollution inflicts on human health, at even lower concentrations than previously understood.

... Every year, exposure to air pollution is estimated to cause 7 million premature deaths and result in the loss of millions more healthy years of life.

In children, this could include reduced lung growth and function, respiratory infections and aggravated asthma. In adults, ischaemic heart disease and stroke are the most common causes of premature death attributable to outdoor air pollution, and evidence is also emerging of other effects such as diabetes and neurodegenerative conditions. This puts the burden of disease attributable to air pollution on a par with other major global health risks such as unhealthy diet and tobacco smoking.

https://www.who.int/news/item/22-09-...-air-pollution

DJ Given the political inaction-lots of words, no real deeds, on climate change we may "need a revolution" to get public interest as #1 in stead of "money going to the rich-politics". The present political system is destroying the planet...may not be able to get out of its "economy-tunnel vision".

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/924136-china-one-new-avian-flu-h5n6-human-case-in-guangdong-province-15th-case-in-china-in-2021-september-22-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/924136-china-one-new-avian-flu-h5n6-human-case-in-guangdong-province-15th-case-in-china-in-2021-september-22-2021ON SEPTEMBER 22, 2021, THE GUANGDONG PROVINCIAL HEALTH COMMISSION REPORTED ONE CASE OF H5N6 IN DONGGUAN.

patient li, male, 53 years old, from liuzhou, guangxi, now lives in dalingshan town, dongguan city. at present, patients in dongguan city's designated hospital active treatment.

EXPERTS CONCLUDED THAT THE CASE IS AN OCCASIONAL CASE, THE RISK OF TRANSMISSION OF THE VIRUS IS LOW AT THIS STAGE.

DJ see also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/723926-flutrackers-h5n6-cumulative-case-list[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/723926-flutrackers-h5n6-cumulative-case-list DJ H5N6 still is bird-to-human infection. But cases are increasing-may signal a worsening trend. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/924128-cdc-adds-new-covid-variant-designation-vbm-downgrades-10-variants[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/924128-cdc-adds-new-covid-variant-designation-vbm-downgrades-10-variants

Yesterday both the CDC and the WHO announced major changes to the classification of known variants, with the WHO (see Weekly Epi Update #58) downgrading 3 VOIs - Eta (B.1.525), Iota (B.1.526) and Kappa (B.1.617.1) - to Variants Under Monitoring (VUMs), stating:


While all three variants carry mutations with suspected and/or established phenotypic impacts, the number of reported detections of these variants have decreased over time at the global, regional and country levels. Evidence from both sequencing data submitted to GISAID and information available to WHO indicate a substantial decline in their respective incidence worldwide, and therefore represent diminished public health risks relative to other VOCs and VOIs.

-

The CDC yesterday announced a new variant category VBM (Variant Being Monitored) which is the functional equivalent of the WHO's VUM. Wielding a heavy pruning knife, the CDC demoted no fewer than 10 VOIs and VOCs to VBM status (see chart below), leaving only Delta (B.1.617.2 and all AY sublineages) as a Variant of Concern for the United States.

  • The SIG Variant classification scheme defines four classes of SARS-CoV-2 variants:
  • Variant Being Monitored (VBM)
  • Alpha (B.1.1.7, Q.1-Q.8)
  • Beta (B.1.351, B.1.351.2, B.1.351.3)
  • B.1.617.3.
  • Gamma (P.1, P.1.1, P.1.2)
  • Epsilon (B.1.427 and B.1.429)
  • Eta (B.1.525)
  • Iota (B.1.526)
  • Kappa (B.1.617.1)
  • B.1.617.3
  • Mu (B.1.621, B.1.621.1)
  • Zeta (P.2)

DJ There are now still no Variants Of High Consequences...Maybe Delta could be the first ? R.1 not mentioned in this update.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/924124-mbio-sars-cov-2-nsp5-demonstrates-two-distinct-mechanisms-targeting-rig-i-and-mavs-to-evade-the-innate-immune-response[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/924124-mbio-sars-cov-2-nsp5-demonstrates-two-distinct-mechanisms-targeting-rig-i-and-mavs-to-evade-the-innate-immune-response ; Abstract

Newly emerged severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused a global pandemic with astonishing mortality and morbidity. 

The high replication and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 are remarkably distinct from those of previous closely related coronaviruses, and the underlying molecular mechanisms remain unclear. 

The innate immune defense is a physical barrier that restricts viral replication. 

We report here that the SARS-CoV-2 Nsp5 main protease targets RIG-I and mitochondrial antiviral signaling (MAVS) protein via two distinct mechanisms for inhibition. 

Specifically, Nsp5 cleaves off the 10 most-N-terminal amino acids from RIG-I and deprives it of the ability to activate MAVS, whereas Nsp5 promotes the ubiquitination and proteosome-mediated degradation of MAVS. 

As such, Nsp5 potently inhibits interferon (IFN) induction by double-stranded RNA (dsRNA) in an enzyme-dependent manner. 

A synthetic small-molecule inhibitor blunts the Nsp5-mediated destruction of cellular RIG-I and MAVS and processing of SARS-CoV-2 nonstructural proteins, thus restoring the innate immune response and impeding SARS-CoV-2 replication. 

This work offers new insight into the immune evasion strategy of SARS-CoV-2 and provides a potential antiviral agent to treat CoV disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. 

IMPORTANCE The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is caused by SARS-CoV-2, which is rapidly evolving with better transmissibility. Understanding the molecular basis of the SARS-CoV-2 interaction with host cells is of paramount significance, and development of antiviral agents provides new avenues to prevent and treat COVID-19 diseases. This study describes a molecular characterization of innate immune evasion mediated by the SARS-CoV-2 Nsp5 main protease and subsequent development of a small-molecule inhibitor.

DJ We are still learning on how SARS-2/CoViD-19 works..

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eO9cjy3Rydc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eO9cjy3Rydc on Home Ivermectin based kits in India;

Goa, home medical kit with ivermectin, zinc and vitamin D 

Pulse Oximeter Digital Thermometer Paracetamol tablets (15) Vitamin C tablets (30) Multivitamin tablets with Zinc (30) Vitamin D3 tablets (2 packs) Ivermectin 12mg tablets (10) Doxycycline 100mg tablets (10) Three-ply face masks (5) N-95 Masks (2) Sanitizer (100ml) Alcohol based Wipes (1 box with 20 plies) Gloves (2 pairs)  

UP (DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uttar_Pradesh[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uttar_Pradesh )

 Population 204 million

No fresh Covid cases in UP's 59 districts Last 24 hours, 191,446 samples tested 33 samples tested positive Test Positivity Rate, lower than 0.01

Active caseload Currently 187 April, 310,783 

Factors to explain success Targeted testing of specific groups Early detection Contact tracing Isolation Free and timely provision of medicine kits and treatment to the rural populace $2.65 per person  

A team of doctors will supervise the administration of doses as well as distribution of the medical kits among the children in all 75 districts of the state  

DJ From comments;  I'm from Uttar Pradesh, India, and I can confirm that what is being said here, was actually practiced when we got hit by delta variant. I think the right dosage of Ivermectin-with medical supervision-did show results in several countries. 

Of course you also have to consider other factors; summer heat, people being warned by the outbreak killing millions in India...

Other countries we keep poor may also not be able to buy expensive western vaccines and fall back on alternatives. 

Music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPayLGgx_8E[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wPayLGgx_8E The Move - Flowers In The Rain 1967 [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Move[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Move 



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 23 2021 at 10:39pm

DJ,

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ global september 23; cases 512,822, deaths 8,619...trends cases -8%, deaths -9% 

US cases 127,463, deaths 1,974, trends cases -16%, deaths -4%

UK cases 36,710, deaths 182, trends cases & deaths 0%

North America reported 160,705 cases, 3,108 deaths, South America 30,154 cases, 826 deaths...So the America's had 190,859 cases and 3,934 deaths...With China population 1,440 million reporting "just" 43 new cases, India-population also almost 1,4 billion "only" 31,458 cases, 319 deaths part of the unbalance can be explained...

Still here in NL (cases 1,823, 12 deaths, trends cases -17%, deaths +20% 35 last week 42 this week...) the pandemic is no longer "major news"...

When I look at deaths per million US has 2,109, UK 1,988, Brazil 2,766, Germany 1,116, NL 1,056....

Even in the US "vaccinated states" have much lower numbers then "unvaccinated states" [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ ;

Tennesee has 176,292 cases per million of population, Vermont 51,873...deaths per million in Mississippi 3,157 while in Vermont it is 482...In all larger countries there will be major regional differences. In the US state government-not federal government-is making the rules. 

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920558-us-surveillance-data-shows-white-tailed-deer-exposed-to-sars-cov-2?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920558-us-surveillance-data-shows-white-tailed-deer-exposed-to-sars-cov-2?view=stream latest ; Questions and Answers - Results of Study on SARS-CoV-2 in White-Tailed Deer: https://www.aphis.usda.gov/animal_he...deer-study.pdf

DJ Again spread of SARS-2/CoViD-19 in non human hosts has major risks; from resulting in new variants to large scale spread in non-human hosts...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924225-cidrap-routine-covid-testing-doubles-detection-at-3-public-schools[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924225-cidrap-routine-covid-testing-doubles-detection-at-3-public-schoolsWeekly COVID-19 testing of asymptomatic students and staff at three K-12 public schools in Omaha, Nebraska, roughly doubled the detection rate of symptom-based testing and exceeded that of the rest of the local county, according to a study yesterday in JAMA Network Open.
The pilot quality-improvement project, led by University of Nebraska Medical Center scientists and the Omaha Public School District, involved weekly self-collected saliva testing and twice-weekly sampling of school wastewater and air and surfaces of high-risk areas from Nov 9 to Dec 11, 2020.
At that time, all district schools offered hybrid instruction, alternating cohorts for distance and in-person instruction; 50% to 60% of students chose in-person learning. Routine staff COVID-19 testing was mandatory, while it was optional for students.

DJ More testing=more asymptomatic cases detected=better interventions possible to reduce spread...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924223-cidrap-news-scan-adult-covid-19-related-syndrome-israeli-covid-vaccination-and-lives-saved[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924223-cidrap-news-scan-adult-covid-19-related-syndrome-israeli-covid-vaccination-and-lives-saved ; Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in adults (MIS-A) is a rare but severe hyperinflammatory condition that begins roughly 4 weeks after COVID-19 symptom onset and likely results from an outsized immune response, concludes a systematic review yesterday in JAMA Network Open.
Researchers from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conducted a literature review from May 1, 2020, to May 25, 2021, identifying 221 patients around the world diagnosed as having MIS-A. First identified in children (MIS-C) in April 2020, the syndrome has since also been recognized in adults.
MIS-A typically emerges about 4 weeks after COVID-19 symptoms began, producing inflammation and involving a median of five nonpulmonary organs, the authors report. Clinical presentations vary, but the organ systems most often affected were hematologic (92%), cardiovascular (87%), gastrointestinal (83%), and respiratory (74%).

-

From Dec 20, 2020, to Apr 10, 2021, Israel launched a massive national COVID-19 vaccination campaign with the two-dose mRNA vaccine made by Pfizer-BioNTech. Approximately 74% of the country's population aged 16 and older were fully vaccinated by Apr 10, making Israel's the fastest and most comprehensive vaccination campaign in the world.
Even in the face of rising breakthrough cases caused by the Delta (B1617.2) variant and evidence of some waning protection against mild infections, the study authors estimate the vaccination campaign averted 158,665 SARS-CoV infections (95% confidence interval, 144,640 to 172,690), 24,597 hospitalizations (18,942 to 30,252), 17,432 severe or critical hospitalizations (12,770 to 22,094), and 5,532 deaths (3,085 to 7,982) during the study period.
During that period, Israel reported 13,338 hospitalization (8,429 of which were severe or critical), and 2,859 deaths from COVID-19.

DJ Vaccines are much safer then "natural immunity" after infection. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latests; When will the Covid-19 epidemic end?

One of the widespread beliefs is that the virus loses its virulence as the pandemic progresses so as not to kill its host, which is also its transmission vector. Unfortunately, this view does not stand up to the analysis of the facts, for example HIV has become more virulent over time. Likewise, the Delta variant appears to cause more severe forms than the Alpha variant. " In the case of SARS-CoV-2, severe symptoms usually appear after two weeks of infection, but more than 95% of transmissions occur before day 11. In other words, from the perspective of this coronavirus, late (particularly inflammatory) manifestations of virulence do not constitute a loss of transmission opportunities.”, says Samuel Alizon, Director of Research at the CNRS and the IRD.

Only one disease in history has been eradicated with a vaccine : smallpox , the last known case of which dates back to 1978 in the United Kingdom. “ This eradication has been possible at the cost of relentless vaccination campaigns for decades. In addition, SARS-CoV-2 has an animal reservoir, so it is almost impossible to eradicate the virus, such as the pathogen of plague, for example, ”says Eric Dortenzio, research director at Inserm. In fact, most of the viruses or bacteria responsible for past pandemics are still present today, be it plague, H1N1 or Ebola. Diseases that are still experiencing sporadic epidemic upsurges.“

Even if the virus were eradicated from the human population, it would continue to circulate in animals and could undergo unexpected mutations.

According to experts, the safest way to end an epidemic is to slow the spread of the disease and counteract its side effects.
Pest control and hygiene standards, for example, have helped control plague and cholera . Triple therapies have drastically reduced AIDS mortality . In the case of measles , vaccination makes it possible to reduce the number of contaminations to almost zero, but this requires practically 100% vaccination coverage and the immunity conferred by the vaccine to be sterilizing. that is, it prevents the transmission of the virus. Two conditions that will undoubtedly never be met with Covid-19. " Even if we eradicated the virus in the human population, it would continue to circulate in animals and could undergo unexpected mutations there , ”warns Jean-Claude Manuguerra.

DJ Just like other people scientists are (very) divided on how to deal with this pandemic. There are still lots of questions. How does immunity work against CoViD-19 ? Sometimes it looks like "natural immunity" (maybe even as a result from "cold-coronavirus infection) is very effective-but Manaus-Brazil seeing two waves-with high natural infections-but different variants undermine that view...

The hope now is "booster vaccines" will offer a lot of extra (maybe lifelong) protection. Statistics do not give a clear story...it is expected there will be an increase in many countries before 2022...even with a high level of vaccinations and a lot of people not that social active as pre-pandemic. 

Even if numbers-worldwide-would keep going down the coming months there is no guarantee later on some new variant (maybe from a non-human host) would show up...Governments can "reopen" but people decide what they do...in NL malls still 20% less customers then in 2019. Gyms sometimes even only 50% of the 2019 members...

-Dr. John Campbell also trying to make sense of this pandemic [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckIQhGKyvd4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckIQhGKyvd4 "Pandemics (DJ-in the past) & medicine safety.

DJ-Comparing the present corona-virus pandemic with the "1918" (some put a time stamp of 1917 to 1923 on it-possible link to [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Encephalitis_lethargica[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Encephalitis_lethargica 1917-1926 ???)

From under the video some statistics etc; H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin United States, first identified in military in spring 1918 One-third of the world’s population became infected Global deaths, at least 50 million US deaths, 675,000 (CDC, 2021, 666,440) (JH, 2021, 681,199)

(population, x 3 today) Pandemic subsides, but (H1N1) continues to circulate seasonally for 38 years

Mortality in 1918 / 1919 High in people younger than 5 years old 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older No vaccine, no antibiotics 

UK in 1918 Deaths, 228,000 (2021, 135,621 to 158,664) 

Global infection fatality rate, 10% to 20% 

DJ One major difference with the 1918 pandemic is people had some level of immunity against the flu. Other differences; global population around 2 billion in 1918. World War 1 ended in november that year. Very limited travel-the flu did travel with the armies. Most of the global population then did not live in cities. 

There still is disagreement on the number of people that died from ( or during ?) the "Spanish Flu" max between 50 and 100 million. 

The general idea in early 2020 was a next pandemic would be flu-related and-most likely controlable (a.o. via vaccinations). "Variants" make the present pandemic unpredictable-even for experts/science. In many ways we may be in "unknown territory"...

-Music ; Rammstein-Amerika (Merkel will end her office as German PM on sunday-with elections on that day in Germany) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rr8ljRgcJNM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rr8ljRgcJNM 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 24 2021 at 10:44pm

DJ,

The Dutch "health minister"  is claiming it now is okay to hug-but you can not shake hands..."There is a growing gap between politics and society"...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/09/23/health-ministry-denies-dancing-janssen-prompted-broken-cooler[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/09/23/health-ministry-denies-dancing-janssen-prompted-broken-cooler ...You will need QR-code-vaccine passports in NL from today...only there are lots of technical problems...so cinema's, restaurants, face problems having to check visitors...While you do NOT need such a QR code in gyms...

Still cases in NL -18%, deaths -11%...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/netherlands/ number of cases still higher then during summer 2020 and summer 2021-but there may have been less testing...

Tomorrow-sunday-there will be elections in Germany [url]https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-the-party-programs/a-59103401[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/german-election-the-party-programs/a-59103401 . Non of the parties has anything on climate keeping temperature rise under 1,5C...Poverty, inequality, is an increasing problem in Germany as well. 

There will be a growing number of questions on how we did get in this pandemic...Did we learn from it...with politics in a hurry to return to the "old normal" that did cause the problem...

Climate change is just one of the problems present politics is talking to much, doing to little...[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/ok-don-t-panic-this-is-just-one-computer-model-and-they-usually-change-but-this-one-shows-myc-hurricane-impact-category-5[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/ok-don-t-panic-this-is-just-one-computer-model-and-they-usually-change-but-this-one-shows-myc-hurricane-impact-category-5 "learning the hard way" ? 

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-dilemma-of-climate-scientists.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-dilemma-of-climate-scientists.html Experts have been warning for a pandemic for decades...The US, UK, NL were top 3 "best prepared for a pandemic countries" in 2019 according to some claims...Both the US and UK are disasterzone's due to political mismanagement...NL is hardly better...Experts "sugarcoat" their findings to at least maybe get some influence in politics...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35_gSvvdtc8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35_gSvvdtc8 Biden going to Europe to apologize for stealing the Australian Navy submarine order by the US from France...Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) presentation a total disaster damaging US-EU relations, damaging US/Australia relations with SE Asia/Pacific...nobody is waiting for MORE nuclear weapons-wich nuclear submarines of course are ! An act of "boy-school stupidity" ....by "worldleaders"... 

-More numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

US reporting 2,004 deaths, over 130,000 new cases...healthcare in some states near collapse...while other states see limited numbers. A link with vaccinations seen as "political"....In the US if you use a mask you are a "democrat", you also take a vaccine...republicans claim it is all a hoax....(to put it in a simple sentence). That is how NOT to deal with a pandemic ! (See also https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/923852-us-media-%E2%80%9Chhs-will-determine-the-amount-of-product-each-state-and-territory-receives-on-a-weekly-basis-%E2%80%9D below-most people not vaccinated are black, hispanic-NOT republicans !)

US cases -19%, deaths -3% is "good news" ! UK cases +14%, deaths +1% is "bad news"....Daily number of cases/deaths worldwide still above the number we did see most of 2020....We can "see" it as a "new normal" but it in fact is still high....

Airpolution killing 7 million people per year did get accepted as "normal" while it is crazy ! I believe 2 million people per year die in traffic...crazy !!! The only reasons we did buy this is due to power of fossil fuel, car, aircraft, military industry...banking...the way they are allowed to "calculate" profits..."Economy first" even if that is killing millions (proberbly over 10 million !) per year is "normal, civilized" ....Insane ! Unacceptable ! Unjustifiable ! 

The "gap" between "politics" and "reality" is filled with over 10 million human bodies every year ! For profit, greed, a rich elite !

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924295-b-c-health-officials-release-true-hospital-numbers-after-public-pressure[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924295-b-c-health-officials-release-true-hospital-numbers-after-public-pressureVANCOUVER -
Following intense public pressure and scrutiny, British Columbia health officials have finally revealed a more accurate account of how many patients are in hospital due to COVID-19.

More than a week after CTV News asked for the numbers and was first to report on the dual accounting methods, the province now says that as of Tuesday, there were 152 additional patients in hospital due to COVID but who were no longer infectious and therefore had “discontinued isolation.”

On Thursday, it reported 330 infectious and still in hospital, 148 of them in intensive care.

So in fact, British Columbia has more than 480 people in hospital due to COVID-19, both infectious and non-infectious; the province of Manitoba has been reporting its figures this way for some time.

“For most cases, isolation is discontinued after 10 days, provided there is no fever and symptoms are improving,” wrote the government in a press release after failing to respond to CTV’s multiple attempts for clarification and statistics. “These same requirements are in effect in Ontario, Alberta and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the U.S. In B.C., for serious cases, the guideline is 20 days.”

Dr. Bonnie Henry had sidestepped CTV News’ question on the matter on Tuesday, refusing to give the total number and pointing out they’d always kept two sets of COVID-19 patient counts...

DJ How can you get public trust if you are "playing with numbers" ? I am (still) willing to believe vaccination offers protection-but if "numbers of vaccinated in hospital, ICU, deaths" are treated as a state-secret "I am not happy" ! 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/923852-us-media-%E2%80%9Chhs-will-determine-the-amount-of-product-each-state-and-territory-receives-on-a-weekly-basis-%E2%80%9D[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/923852-us-media-%E2%80%9Chhs-will-determine-the-amount-of-product-each-state-and-territory-receives-on-a-weekly-basis-%E2%80%9D latest; But there’s cognitive dissonance at the heart of this thinking from Biden and his supporters. First of all, when one breaks down the demographic data, the highest proportion of eligible but unvaccinated individuals in America is young Black and Latino males, who have received at least one shot at 43% and 48%, respectively. While there’s certainly a group within those categories of Republicans and Trump voters, the data tells us that most young minority males are not MAGA-hat-wearing, anti-vax Right-wingers… But the Democrat narrative ignores this reality.

In fact, the Biden view of vaccine hesitancy is that white male, Right-wing individuals who refuse to get the vaccine are bad people who don’t care about the science. However, racial minorities are an entirely different matter when it comes to vaccine hesitancy. Dr. Fauci, Biden, and the whole COVID apparatus of control constantly make excuses around “access” issues for minorities who choose not to get the shot. We are supposed to ignore the politics of this and the fact that more than 90% of African American voters cast their ballots for Democrats in the 2020 election...

DJ The best i can say from this; good intentions may not bring good results...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/924275-china-gov-says-kiwifruit-exported-to-china-from-new-zealand-tests-positive-for-covid-september-24-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/924275-china-gov-says-kiwifruit-exported-to-china-from-new-zealand-tests-positive-for-covid-september-24-2021

And the fruit was fine when it arrived in China. This must be very stressful for everyone involved.

"It had tested negative for Covid-19 in Shanghai, and was “disinfected as per standard China customs protocols before being cleared and distributed”. The positive test came from fruit held by a second-tier distributor in Hefei province, neighbouring Jiangsu province."

DJ Agriculture workers are low paid-high risk...but it looks like the kiwi's dit get virus-particles on them in China.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/924268-front-cardiovasc-med-thrombus-of-the-aorta-and-sars-cov-2-infection-cause-or-trigger[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/924268-front-cardiovasc-med-thrombus-of-the-aorta-and-sars-cov-2-infection-cause-or-trigger ; DJ Did people have (unknown) healthissues and get more severe Covid-or did Covid cause other chronic healthissues...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/924262-j-vet-sci-characterization-of-bat-coronaviruses-a-latent-global-threat[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/924262-j-vet-sci-characterization-of-bat-coronaviruses-a-latent-global-threat ; It has been speculated that bats serve as reservoirs of a huge variety of emerging coronaviruses (CoVs) that have been responsible for severe havoc in human health systems as well as negatively affecting human economic and social systems. 

A prime example is the currently active severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV2, which presumably originated from bats, demonstrating that the risk of a new outbreak of bat coronavirus is always latent. 

Therefore, an in-depth investigation to better comprehend bat CoVs has become an important issue within the international community, a group that aims to attenuate the consequences of future outbreaks. 

In this review, we present a concise introduction to CoVs found in bats and discuss their distribution in Southeast Asia. 

We also discuss the unique adaptation features in bats that confer the ability to be a potential coronavirus reservoir. In addition, we review the bat coronavirus-linked diseases that have emerged in the last two decades. 

Finally, we propose key factors helpful in the prediction of a novel coronavirus outbreak and present the most recent methods used to forecast an evolving outbreak.

DJ Even if one would believe "lab-leak-claims" SARS-1, MERS, now SARS-2 indicate coronavirus disease risks have been underestimated. Most likely other risks are being underestimated "to keep things going"...A more realistic risk assessment may be better in limiting damage, early warning etc. 

Of course monitoring risks costs money, limits "possibilities"...but on the long run may be cost effective. Problem is "short term politics"...even next year is "over the horizon" for most people...

-Dr. John Campbell on "the worst cold ever" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Vsp5DJtsXM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Vsp5DJtsXM DJ decreased immunity may mean a "common" cold-or flu-may strike harder...;


 Dr Gary Howsam, vice-chair of the Royal College of GPs ;

we are starting to see a major resurgence of illnesses like common colds, flu and stomach bugs, alongside the Covid-19 virus in the community Symptoms of Covid-19 can often be similar to symptoms of other illnesses such as the common cold. So it’s important that if a patient does experience symptoms of Covid-19, such as a high temperature, a new continuous cough, or a loss or change to sense of smell or taste that they get a PCR test immediately, and on receiving a positive result, self-isolate for the required period of time 

Dr Yvonne Doyle, medical director at Public Health England ; 

Hand washing, ventilation and mask wearing aren’t only important for Covid-19, they keep other bugs at bay too 

Do I have COVID or a cold?  

Vaccinated or not Anosmia is one of the most important predictors of testing positive for COVID-19 rather than a regular cold 

If fully vaccinated (as of 21st September) Runny nose Headache Sneezing Sore throat Anamosa 

DJ Anamose is a city...also a symptom ? Proberbly Anosmia-loss of smell/taste...

If unvaccinated Headache Runny nose Sore throat Fever Persistent cough Anosmia

Other symptoms  

Chills or shivers Loss or change of taste Fatigue Delirium Skin rash Changes in mouth or tongue Red and sore fingers or toes Shortness of breath Chest pain Muscle pain Hoarse voice Diarrhoea Anorexia Abdominal pains 

If you feel newly unwell, especially if you’re suffering from any of the common covid symptoms, stay home and get a COVID test, even if you’ve been vaccinated.  

Lateral flow test ;

99.9% specificity May be 99.97% 

Low false positive rate 

A negative result from a lateral flow test is not totally reliable  

High false negative rate  https://pharmaceutical-journal.com/ar...  72% picked up in those with symptoms 58% picked up in those without symptoms So if your symptoms persist it’s best to get a PCR test  

DJ Take health serious is proberbly the main point ! I can get a flu-vaccination...it will boost my immunity-may help in protection against CoViD but I still avoid public transport, crowds...Dr.J.C. also put links to free books on health education...That is very good, welcome... in schools basic health education needs more attention !

There was a more severe cold around late 2019...do some "cold variants" cause more health issues ? 

Music; Do You Know The Way To San Jose ? - Dionne Warwick - 1969 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqWt49o7R-k[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqWt49o7R-k 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 25 2021 at 10:35pm

Get vaccinated ! If you not allready did get vaccinated....

DJ, 

I am NOT an expert-just trying "to follow the story"...I had my doubts on vaccines, Big Pharma...but looking at global statistics it looks like vaccines are doing a very major job ! 

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ show number of both cases and deaths are still high in many places...In part due to limited vaccinations, in part due to not effective restrictions...

When I look at the Israel numbers cases -22%, deaths -20% booster vaccines do work. Israel has a young-and very mixed-population. Over 30% is under 18 y/o and only later on got included in vaccinations. Orthodox, Arab Israeli's often are less likely to take the vaccine. Both groups live-often-with larger families in smaller houses so if Delta reaches one person they all may get infected...

And vaccines, tests, are far from perfect ! Yet vaccines against CoViD do a much better job then the flu-vaccines that see much less discussion !

Global cases -12%, deaths -10% (this week trend) in itself is "good news"! When I look at countries that report increase of cases they often most likely have limited vaccinations/restrictions...also more testing may give more positive tests="cases"...(because you can discuss the definition of what is a case. Now start counting only hospital cases may undermine a strategy to get a realistic view via statistics. China seems to be only reporting symptomatic cases...has not reported any CoViD deaths...this may result in a false picture not helping anyone.)

Regions;

Europe; cases +2%, deaths +4%, UK/Ireland and Eastern Europe see large increases while western Europe see cases/deaths going down. (A.o. Belgium cases - deaths+...so the picture is "mixed"...)

North America; cases -20%, deaths -4%, US cases -23%, deaths -10% in general (!!!) the US is doing rather good ! It is some states with low level of vaccination, poverty, lack of restrictions that are in crisis. Canada cases -19%, deaths +31%..Major problems more in Central America, Caribbean. Cuba doing good now with increase of vaccinations-from age 2. In lots of other Central American countries public health/vaccinations (and testing) are limited.

Asia; cases -12%, deaths -20%. Syria and Turkey, South Korea, Laos, Singapore report (strong) increases...In part it may be flare ups-outcome of lifting to many restrictions to early-but controlable...Iran, India see decrease of cases and deaths...

South America; cases have been going down for some time-still -8%, deaths -17% ! With limited testing, vaccines some of the succes may be in natural immunity, restrictions. Chile reporting an increase of 19% as this week trend. Venezuela, Colombia, the Guyana's/Suriname also remain problematic. 

Africa; cases -25%, deaths -18%...both testing and vaccinations is "bad"....But since it most likely has been on more or less the same level; been bad all the time-statistics may give some indications. South Africa cases -40%, deaths -35% is "good news"!

More to the north, countries like Angola, Zimbabwe, Congo report increase of cases. Also Somalia remains a disaster zone....Egypt cases +23%, deaths +118%...Kenya, Nigeria reporting decrease of cases...

Oceania; cases -3%, deaths +14% with very limited numbers. Australia and New Zealand both reporting a decrease of cases. However Papua New Guinea reporting an explosion of cases +357%,deaths +163%...

DJ-Most likely most of the countries reporting (strong) increases may be dealing (again) with Delta variant...Most likely there are some new variants trying to spread but both Delta and (even limited) vaccines/restrictions make it harder for new variants to gain ground. 

Still changes in Delta(+) could increase risks...It would be very, very welcome !!!! if cases and deaths would keep going down like this ! But autumn/fall is on its way. Some regions could be in winter-like conditions within a month...

I do NOT like stories on "strong cold/flu" with cases going up...sometimes looking like CoViD but tests not picking it up. There have been stories (a.o. from Finland) of test-escape variants. The virus will react to vaccine/natural immunity increasing. 

Also Delta (a.o.) seems to infect non-human hosts with more ease. That also has very major risks. 

From a twitter from Dr. Peter Doherty ; In a way, though, it would be comforting to think that delta is indeed an immune escape variant that has 'gone about as far as it can go' but hasn't fully escaped. When it comes to fall-off in neutralizing antibody protection, beta and mu look more dangerous. We'll see.

DJ We still do not know enough...how could "Delta" become such a major problem in India that fast...or were there more forms of Delta ? I myself wonder what the Africa picture is in reality...a lot of hidden suffering I think...but being ill is being weak...so better hide...

I think we are NOT out of this pandemic ! Some "politicians" claim "they did beat the virus in their country" but a pandemic is over when ALL countries have the disease under control !

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924318-china-xiehe-hospital-sent-another-20-medical-team-to-urgently-support-xiamen-despite-only-announcing-1-new-case-today-september-25-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924318-china-xiehe-hospital-sent-another-20-medical-team-to-urgently-support-xiamen-despite-only-announcing-1-new-case-today-september-25-2021On the afternoon of September 24, the Union Hospital of Fujian Medical University sent the tenth batch of medical teams to urgently support Xiamen to carry out critical medical treatment. The medical team has a total of 20 people. , All are hospital intensive care staff.

DJ Asymptomatic positive testing people are not reported as a "case" in China...Still China is going for massive testing, vaccinations, early detecting cases and than increasing (travel) restrictions, contact tracing...Maybe China may have found a better balance in keeping cases as low as possible while also keeping the economy going !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924316-closest-known-relatives-of-virus-behind-covid-19-found-in-laos[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924316-closest-known-relatives-of-virus-behind-covid-19-found-in-laos ; Scientists have found three viruses in bats in Laos that are more similar to SARS-CoV-2 than any known viruses. Researchers say that parts of their genetic code bolster claims that the virus behind COVID-19 has a natural origin — but their discovery also raises fears that there are numerous coronaviruses with the potential to infect people.

David Robertson, a virologist at the University of Glasgow, UK, calls the find “fascinating, and quite terrifying”.

To make the discovery, Marc Eloit, a virologist at the Pasteur Institute in Paris and his colleagues in France and Laos, took saliva, faeces and urine samples from 645 bats in caves in northern Laos. In three horseshoe (Rhinolophus) bat species, they found viruses that are each more than 95% identical to SARS-CoV-2, which they named BANAL-52, BANAL-103 and BANAL-236.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02596-2

DJ One would "almost hope" this pandemic was the outcome of a "lab-leak" ! If this CoViD-19 is "natural"-and it looks like it is !-what else to expect ? We have been ignoring all kinds of risks for far to long ! 

We did not just build one "house on ice"-but entire cities and now the "ice is melting"! What we did take for "normal" for the last 200+ years may have been far from "normal" over a longer time ! We just did not want to know !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/924313-pediatric-covid-19-cases-in-counties-with-and-without-school-mask-requirements-%E2%80%94-united-states-july-1%E2%80%93september-4-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/924313-pediatric-covid-19-cases-in-counties-with-and-without-school-mask-requirements-%E2%80%94-united-states-july-1%E2%80%93september-4-2021 DJ; Lots of countries have masks for children/students...but often there is also-allready-a level of vaccinations. The picture is "complex"-but in general-the less room the virus the lower the number of infections...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924311-confirmation-of-covid-19-in-ferret-in-florida-usda[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924311-confirmation-of-covid-19-in-ferret-in-florida-usdaWashington, D.C., September 24, 2021 -- The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) today announced confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) in a ferret in Florida. This is the first ferret confirmed with the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the United States. A ferret was previously reported with the virus in Slovenia.

Samples from the ferret were taken after it showed clinical signs including sneezing and coughing. It is suspected that the ferret acquired the infection from a person with COVID-19.

DJ Often kept animals that show symptoms get tested...asymptomatic spread allready goes "under the radar" over 95% of the cases...Spread "in the wild" may be as good as missed-with some deers, street cats etc. being detected. Given the virulence of Delta-the close proximity of humans and animals in many countries it is very likely we are missing a lot of spread-and risks-in non-human hosts !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-ab/bangladesh-aa/924305-bangladesh-rise-in-children-s-flu-pneumonia-cases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-ab/bangladesh-aa/924305-bangladesh-rise-in-children-s-flu-pneumonia-cases ; Outpatient departments of public hospitals and private chambers physicians in Dhaka and other places are being crowded with patients, mainly children suffering from flu and pneumonia.

Physicians said that the change in weather causes flu as it severely attacked children due to lower immunity than adults...

DJ Restrictions may result in less immunity for other diseases once those restrictions are lifted...Proberbly from a healthcare view you should have a "reopening plan with slow increase of exposure to "normal" diseases"...A bad flu season could still create further healthcare crises..

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8yZ4usdr4Y[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8yZ4usdr4Y on Global Differences. Good links under the video. 

DJ Brazil may be start doing better in vaccinations then the US-Dr.J.C. is showing statistics but not mentioning it...China, Canada, western Europe 70% (fully) vaccinated...

Did Dr.J.C. call UK almost 1,000 Covid deaths per week "insignificant" ???? What about "long CoVid" , long term damage after infections-hard to catch in statistics ? 

The recent/present Delta wave is the worst wave so far in some parts of the US. Yes cases are going down-but still very high when you look at the pandemic timeline ! 

DJ-In most places vaccinations are NOT mandatory-still in lots of places most people want to take the vaccine-did get the message it offers good protection with very limited risks ! Many countries now also vaccinating 12-18 y/o age group. Some also looking at younger age groups. 

Most of the spread in countries with good level of vaccinations is in the younger the 18/21 y/o with limited or no vaccine protection. There seems to be an increase of more severe disease due to CoVid but still it is-as far as I see-not as bad as in older age groups. 

However that is no reason NOT to vaccinate younger age groups. Long CoVid, MIS-C, organ damage after infection is not often showing up in statistics. 

DJ-Conclusions; maybe the "pandemic crisis" may be improving in many places but we are not "post-pandemic" yet ! It is good, wise, a lot of people limit social actions...

Dr. J.C. mentions spring is on its way in the southern part of the globe. Season-effects-Dutch CDC modelmakers estimate-may result in 10% less cases in summer, 10% more cases in winter...but variants (like UK/Alfa last winter) does change those statistics much more...

[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing ; CDC studies show masks lessen school outbreaks—a study in Arizona found #COVID19 outbreaks were almost 4 times more common at public schools without mask mandates on the first day than at those that re-opened with a masking requirement. #maskup

Poor school children in EnglandVlag van Engeland. The #DeltaVariant has roared back, now worse than the first summer Delta wave. Why? 

 doesn’t impose mask mandates in schools, and his JCVI panel has withheld vaccines for kids 12-15 until recently—only releasing when Hoopje poep hit the fan.




I’m up for saving 280,000 lives a year, every year, by wearing a mask seasonally. The small inconvenience is not a moral excuse to not save the lives of others around us. Pijl naar rechts This is the next test of our humanity, our civilization, and whether we will survive on planet Earth

DJ We should learn from this pandemic-bad experiences also can teach us lessons-bring "good" at a terrible price. The way we live will create our future...

-Other news. DJ On YouTube BPEarthwatch, In2thinair (a.o.) are following events from the La Palma volcano to hurricanes, solar flares-and possible effects on earthquakes...

[url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/[/url] or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/ Several storms also "Mindulle" on its way to Japan. "Sam" may reach US east coast next weekend ? 

DJ-I think one in a 100 year, one in a million, even one in a billion year events "will happen one day". Chances are almost 0%...but NOT 0% ! We can learn from past events, global history. 

Another point; Dutch-American history-may also fit in "scenario's"....[url]https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/dutch[/url] or https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/dutch but-in Dutch (google translate does a great job !) [url]https://taalschrift.org/reportage/004922.html[/url] or https://taalschrift.org/reportage/004922.html ...US/Canada census info indicating close to 250,000 people in the US, Canada still speak Dutch at their home. Around 6 million of US/Canada population claim a Dutch family history. 

"Nieuw Nederland" had about 10,000 people in its borders when the British took over that Dutch settlement. Of them 1,500 in "Nieuw Amsterdam" then becoming "New York". Most of the people living in "Nieuw Nederland" did not have a Dutch background-more German, Scandinavian. Only in "Nieuw Amsterdam" most were Dutch. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Netherland[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Netherland . Still in 1790 over 100,000 people in New York (former "Nieuw Amsterdam") and New Jersey did speak Dutch, 1-in-3 of New York citizens in 1790 spook Dutch ! 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delaware_Colony[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delaware_Colony  and [url]http://frontiers.loc.gov/intldl/awkbhtml/kb-1/kb-1-2-4.html[/url] or http://frontiers.loc.gov/intldl/awkbhtml/kb-1/kb-1-2-4.html 

DJ-The main influence of the Dutch in US history was based on the 17th century-becoming part of the elite later on (a.o. Roosevelt [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roosevelt_family[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roosevelt_family ). Much less of influence was later migration from NL to the US. Even with higher numbers Dutch going to the US did see much less impact...become much less of influence...

Still [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Edison[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Edison ; His patrilineal family line was Dutch by way of New Jersey;[11] the surname had originally been "Edeson".[12]

DJ; The British did take over the Dutch settlement in North America in 1664 (with the Dutch regaining control again 1673-74) but with that did not "take over the Dutch". Over a hundred years later the next generations of "American Dutch" became part of the movement for US independence...NL being the first country to recognize the US as an independent republic in 1776...just like NL itself at that time was a republic. 

Is there a link between this part of Dutch-US history and the present pandemic ? I think both showed unexpected developments...A "dominant factor" may believe to "stay in control" but earlier factors may still show up later on...

For the US the UK did take over the Dutch-finding out it did cause a reaction (The word "Yankee" first was used by the British for Dutch in what would become the US) resulting in the UK being kicked out of the US...

In the pandemic Delta now is the dominant variant-but Alfa or Beta may still show up later on, in a new form-pushing Delta aside...

Music; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yankee_Doodle[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yankee_Doodle

The tune of "Yankee Doodle" is thought to be much older than the lyrics, being well known across western Europe, including EnglandFranceNetherlandsHungary, and Spain.[3] The melody of the song may have originated from an Irish tune "All the way to Galway" in which the second strain is identical to Yankee Doodle.[5][6] The earliest words of "Yankee Doodle" came from a Middle Dutch harvest song which is thought to have followed the same tune, possibly dating back as far as 15th-century Holland.[7][8] It contained mostly nonsensical words in English and Dutch: "Yanker, didel, doodle down, Diddle, dudel, lanther, Yanke viver, voover vown, Botermilk und tanther."[3][4][8] Farm laborers in Holland were paid "as much buttermilk (Botermilk) as they could drink, and a tenth (tanther) of the grain".[4][8]

The term Doodle first appeared in English in the early 17th century[9] and is thought to be derived from the Low German dudel, meaning "playing music badly", or Dödel, meaning "fool" or "simpleton". The Macaroni wig was an extreme fashion in the 1770s and became slang for being a fop.[10] Dandies were men who placed particular importance upon physical appearance, refined language, and leisure hobbies. A self-made dandy was a British middle-class man who impersonated an aristocratic lifestyle. They notably wore silk strip cloth, stuck feathers in their hats, and carried two pocket watches with chains—"one to tell what time it was and the other to tell what time it was not"

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1UcnTYrjjU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1UcnTYrjjU 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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I'm pasting the contents of an article that Pixie has posted on another thread as it's so good. It talks about the potential next evolution of the Delta variant and gets really good information about the level of protection you can expect from the vaccines and how fast that protection wanes. It's definitely worth reading. 


Don’t Panic, But Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Been Told

          

Current public-health messaging may understate the scale and risk.

                        By                     
      
                       
        Photo: Mark Felix/Bloomberg via Getty Images  

  

The term itself, perhaps, is a problem. “Breakthrough” sounds bad — implying an immune-escape mutation, likely rare, and therefore alarming.

 

The vaccines were never tested to prevent transmission, only symptomatic disease, and those who knew the science expected, from the outset, that we would see some number of such cases, and that they would be, overwhelmingly, mild. But Delta appears to have changed things. Not everything: The vaccines are working to suppress severe outcomes from COVID infection — according to a New York Times analysis, by more than a factor of 100 for some states, and at least fivefold for even the states where the effect has been most muted. That is, by the standards of historical vaccines, game-changingly well. But most of the data in that analysis comes from before the arrival of the Delta variant, and during the current surge there does seem to be considerably more “leakage” in the protection that vaccines offer against pandemic spread than has widely been acknowledged. While more severe breakthrough cases remain, in relative terms, very rare, we may be seeing a rise in those numbers with Delta, as well.

 

Over the last few weeks, in the wake of an attention-getting internal CDC presentation on the severity of the current wave, we’ve heard a lot — from epidemiologists, public-health officials, journalists like me — about how the leaked slides lacked context, implying a much scarier near-term future than was really suggested by the data, which showed that vaccines were working, that breakthrough cases remained rare and mild, that the pandemic was now largely a pandemic of the unvaccinated. On July 30, the Kaiser Family Foundation published a comprehensive-seeming report, much passed-around, which compiled partial breakthrough data from 24 states and the District of Columbia, and declared that the relative risk to the vaccinated of infection, hospitalization, and death was close to — or mathematically equal to — zero, and that in almost all states only about one percent of identified cases were breakthrough events.Their top-line findings: Less than one percent of vaccinated people have gotten confirmed breakthrough infections, and that the rate of both deaths and hospitalizations among the vaccinated were, effectively, zero.  This reading was echoed by the later Times analysis, and itself echoed earlier reassuring statements by Anthony Fauci, that 99.2 percent of deaths in June were unvaccinated people, and by Surgeon General Vivek Murthy, that, as of July 18, “99.5 percent of COVID deaths are among the unvaccinated.”

 

These readings are, directionally, correct: The vaccines are performing admirably, particularly in protecting people from getting very sick. The current, bleak Delta wave is being driven primarily by cases in the unvaccinated, and the best tool in attacking the pandemic is more vaccination — a very powerful tool indeed. But nevertheless a closer look at the data reveals that some of the public-health communication may be overstating the vaccine effect on transmission and understating the scale and risk of breakthrough infections, which, while far from predominant, do appear prevalent enough to be helping shape the course of the disease.

 

“The message that breakthrough cases are exceedingly rare and that you don’t have to worry about them if you’re vaccinated — that this is only an epidemic of the unvaccinated — that message is falling flat,” Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina told me in the long interview that follows below. “If this was still Alpha, sure. But with Delta, plenty of people are getting sick. Plenty of transmission is going on. And my personal opinion is that the whole notion of herd immunity from two vaccine shots is flying out the window very quickly with this new variant.”

 

“We’re seeing a lot more spread in vaccinated people,” agreed Scripps’s Eric Topol, who estimated that the vaccines’ efficacy against symptomatic transmission, which he estimated to be 90 percent or above for the wild-type strain and all previous variants, had fallen to about 60 percent for Delta. “That’s a big drop.” Later, he suggested it might have fallen to 50 percent, and that new data about to be published in the U.S. would suggest an even lower rate. On Wednesday, a large pre-print study published by the Mayo clinic suggested the efficacy against infection had fallen as far as 42 percent.

 

“The breakthrough problem is much more concerning than what our public officials have transmitted,” Topol continued. “We have no good tracking. But every indicator I have suggests that there’s a lot more under the radar than is being told to the public so far, which is unfortunate.” The result, he said, was a widening gap between the messaging from public-health authorities and the meaning of the data emerging in real time. “I think the problem we have is people — whether it’s the CDC or the people that are doing the briefings — their big concern is, they just want to get vaccinations up. And they don’t want to punch any holes in the story about vaccines. But we can handle the truth. And that’s what we should be getting.”

 

The central distortion reflected in the Kaiser report — and echoed by communicators elsewhere, including in the Times — is the result of a basic error of comparison, one that should have been obvious to anyone familiar with the shape of the pandemic. Almost all of these calculations about the share of breakthrough cases have been made using year-to-date 2021 data, which include several months before mass vaccination (when by definition vanishingly few breakthrough cases could have occurred) during which time the vast majority of the year’s total cases and deaths took place (during the winter surge).This is a corollary to the reassuring principle you might’ve heard, over the last few weeks, that as vaccination levels grow we would expect the percentage of vaccinated cases will, too — the implication being that we shouldn’t worry too much over panicked headlines about the relative share of vaccinated cases in a state or ICU but instead focus on the absolute number of those cases in making a judgment about vaccine protection across a population. This is true. But it also means that when vaccination levels were very low, there were inevitably very few breakthrough cases, too.  That means that to calculate a prevalence ratio for cases or deaths using the full year’s data requires you to effectively divide a numerator of four months of data by a denominator of seven months of data. And because those first few brutal months of the year were exceptional ones that do not reflect anything like the present state of vaccination or the disease, they throw off the ratios even further. Two-thirds of 2021 cases and 80 percent of deaths came before April 1, when only 15 percent of the country was fully vaccinated, which means calculating year-to-date ratios means possibly underestimating the prevalence of breakthrough cases by a factor of three and breakthrough deaths by a factor of five. And if the ratios are calculated using data sets that end before the Delta surge, as many have been, that adds an additional distortion, since both breakthrough cases and severe illness among the vaccinated appear to be significantly more common with this variant than with previous ones.

 

Unfortunately, more accurate month-to-month data is hard to assemble — because the CDC stopped tracking most breakthrough cases in early May, before the Delta wave had begun, and the states maintaining their own databases often update them irregularly and, in some cases, according to idiosyncratic logic — but over the last week, I’ve tried. And while several states show prevalence rates roughly in line with Kaiser’s ballpark one percent estimate (in Virginia, for instance, breakthroughs represent 2.3 percent of new cases and 5.2 percent of deathsVirginia’s breakthrough database is enviably transparent and easy-to-navigate, and their numbers were reassuring: 303 breakthrough cases in July, when the state experienced 13,133 cases. There were 17 breakthrough hospitalizations, out of 430 total in the state — 4 percent. And there was one breakthrough death, of out 19. ), in others the patterns were divergent. In Delaware, between July 1 and July 22, “breakthrough” cases were 13.8 percent of the total.Between July 1 and July 23, there were 818 positive tests in the state and 113 identified “breakthrough” cases. There were also three deaths — all three deaths from COVID-19 registered by the state in that period.  In Michigan, between June 15 and July 30, the figure was 19.1 percent.In this period, there were 2,369 breakthrough cases and 12,409 in total.  In Utah, 8 percent of new cases were breakthroughs in early June, but by late July, as Delta grew, the share grew, too, to 20 percent (even while the total number of cases almost doubled). According to those leaked CDC documents, there were, as of late last month, 35,000 symptomatic breakthrough cases being recorded each week — about 10 percent of the country’s total. Presumably many more breakthrough cases were asymptomatic, which would drive the share up further.Indeed, asymptomatic cases are understood to represent an even bigger share of breakthrough infections than of those in the unvaccinated, because the vaccines help prevent symptomatic disease more effectively than they prevent transmission. This is another way in which the data make for imprecise comparisons — we may be oversampling breakthrough cases and simultaneously underestimating the total number of cases. 

 

Of course, the share of cases isn’t the most illuminating metric — among other confounding factors, it reflects the relative rate of vaccination not just across the population in general but especially among the elderly who are most at risk. And this data is imperfect and incomplete and limited in various other ways, too, including because the country is testing so inadequately that we can’t really see the present state of the pandemic all that clearlyAs a result, this data is closer to “anecdata”: small sample sizes from a somewhat random assortment of states, collected over short timeframes, and subject to selection bias. They expresses obviously imperfect comparisons between difficult-to-compare population groups, in terms of age and vaccination status. This means that breakthrough cases may appear more severe, at the population level, than they would if everyone, including the young, had been vaccinated. In addition, since vaccines protect against symptomatic disease, it is quite likely that a greater share of breakthrough cases would be asymptomatic than is the case with unvaccinated cases, and since symptomaticity is one significant determinant of whether somebody chooses to get tested, it seems plausible that we are undercounting the total number of breakthrough cases more significantly than we ever undercounted the total number of unvaccinated cases. . But the piecemeal data does begin to tell you something, suggesting that breakthrough cases represent a bigger share of disease spread, particularly in the ongoing Delta wave, than has been widely acknowledged — perhaps, overall, somewhere in the range of 5 to 20 percent of current cases, rather than the 0 to 5 percent range. When I ran these figures by Topol, he said, “I think the numbers are right on, and I think they’ve clearly been getting worse as Delta became fully dominant, now approaching 100 percent of all U.S. infections.”

 

The figures circulating about the relative risks faced by a vaccinated individual are more reliable than comparisons built around relative share of infections, because a risk calculation effectively controls for vaccination rates. But they also lack context without comparisons to the same data for the unvaccinated. The 125,000 known U.S. breakthrough cases through the end of July represent, according to NBC News, only 0.08 percent of the vaccinated population — meaning that less than one-tenth of one percent of all vaccinated people have gotten a confirmed breakthrough infection. That is encouraging, and impressive, and reassuring. But less than one percent of the unvaccinated got a confirmed case in July, too.There are 165 million unvaccinated Americans, roughly speaking, and in the month of July there were 1.32 million American cases in total.  While you can’t precisely compare the two groups — social behavior differences make that impossible, as does the age skew of the disease and the age skew of vaccination; and the timelines are different, as well — the two figures suggest, possibly, something like a tenfold reduction of risk. That’s extremely good! In California, for the week ending July 31, the average case rate among the unvaccinated, the state reported, was 33 per 100,000, while the average daily case rate among the vaccinated was seven per 100,000 — a fivefold decrease, more or less. That’s still very good! But fivefold or tenfold is not the hundredfold reduction implied by Kaiser, Fauci, or Murthy.

 

How big an issue are breakthrough cases? Well, cases do still matter: As tempting as it might have been, a few weeks ago, to believe that vaccines would have so well-protected the country’s most vulnerable that the collateral damage from any individual infection was really limited, the growing death totals from the Delta wave show there remain a tragically large number of vulnerable people in the country really threatened by pandemic spread. The day-to-day death totals are noisy right now, but on August 11, more than a thousand new deaths were reported — a level the country hadn’t seen since early April, when less than 20 percent of the country was fully vaccinated. The same day, the less-noisy seven-day average hit 608 — a level the country had last reached in mid-May, with barely a third of the country fully protected.

 

The vaccine effect is considerably more encouraging when it comes to the risk of severe disease and hospitalization on those 50 percent of the country — and 61 percent of adults — who have gotten the shots. According to Kaiser, the hospitalization rate for vaccinated people is, for most states, at or just below 0.01 percent — meaning one out of every 10,000 vaccinated people has been hospitalized. Over the past year, the hospitalization rate for the country as a whole is about 0.7 percent.From August 1, 2020 through August 3, 2021 there were, according to the CDC, 2.44 million hospitalizations in a country of 330 million.  That is an enormous difference in protection against hospitalization — about 70-fold. But Delta is likely changing things here, as well. Even in low-breakthrough Virginia, for instance, there were 17 breakthrough hospitalizations, out of 430 total — about 4 percent, implying about a 17-fold reduction. Still very impressive, but notably lower than the effect implied by pre-Delta data.

 

When the Times calculated the risk of COVID death among the vaccinated, it found that in Texas and Georgia, vaccination seemed to reduce the risk of death by 85x and 87x, respectively, but that in Maine, Vermont, and Indiana, it was only 7x. In Michigan it was 8x. Even at the low end, this is a dramatic, even miraculous-seeming impact. But, of course, most of the data was collected before the Delta surge, and the variant may be darkening the picture at least somewhat here, too. The figures cited by Fauci and Murthy look reassuring — 99.2 percent of deaths were among the unvaccinated in June, according to Fauci, and 99.5 percent according to Murthy, speaking in July. But between June 25 and July 26, 6,973 Americans died in total from COVID-19, according to the CDC. Also according to the CDC, during that same period (June 25 to July 26), 364 died of breakthrough infections. That’s more than 5 percent — more than six times Fauci’s estimate and ten times Murthy’s.

 

Last week I spoke about all this with Harvard’s Michael Mina.

 
 
 

Over the last couple of weeks, and especially since those CDC slides were leaked, a lot of scientists and epidemiologists and data wonks have seemed to want to reassure the public — to emphasize that the vaccines really are working, that breakthrough cases really are rare, that this is now a pandemic of the unvaccinated and that even Delta isn’t very worrisome for the vaccinated. You seem considerably more concerned. Why is that?
I think what we’re seeing again is the same old story that we’ve seen this entire pandemic.

 

What do you mean? 
Many people have tried to stay in line with the official public-health message — whether that’s because they don’t have enough confidence in their own understanding of how the virus works or if it’s because they want to stay consistent with the public-health message of the country, I don’t know. It’s never been clear to me why. I think everyone has their own reasons for not being willing to be a little bit more outspoken during this, particularly given that the official message has often been weeks or months behind the virus. But I think the message that breakthrough cases are exceedingly rare and that you don’t have to worry about them if you’re vaccinated — that this is only an epidemic of the unvaccinated — that message is falling flat. If this was still Alpha, sure. But with Delta, plenty of people are getting sick. Plenty of transmission is going on. And my personal opinion is that the whole notion of herd immunity from two vaccine doses is flying out the window very quickly with this new variant. And it’s probably going to fly out the window even more quickly with the variants to come.

 

And that’s because you see the vaccinated continuing to spread the disease, is that right? That would mean that we can’t count on vaccines to ultimately stop spread, and the thresholds of immunity we might’ve imagined, a few months ago, would get us all the way on the other side of the pandemic probably wouldn’t actually bring an end to things, now that Delta is here. Is that right?
Yes. And that’s exactly right. Breakthrough cases are real. It’s no longer what we were talking about when we talked about the Yankees outbreak.

 

That was earlier in the summer, when you were saying we shouldn’t worry about breakthrough cases, in fact maybe we should celebrate them, because they were overwhelmingly asymptomatic and offered a kind of free immunity booster.
Those cases were PCR positive but likely very low viral load — that was the point of that discussion. But now we’re actually seeing lots of people getting symptomatic disease — getting fevers, getting sick. I just found out today that my brother has a breakthrough case — he’s fully vaccinated and young and healthy and he is very sick right now. And the data is suggesting more and more that that’s not rare at this point.

 

I’m sorry to hear that, I hope he’s managing and recovering. 
I actually haven’t even talked to him yet, my phone’s just been blowing up about it.

 

But when we discussed the Yankees cluster, I think I said that my definition of a breakthrough case was something that was actually breaking through what the vaccines were intended to do and tested for. And since they weren’t intended to protect against transmission, or tested to measure their efficacy in stopping transmission, or, in that case, low-virus-load PCR positivity, if all the cases in question were asymptomatic and just PCR positive, I thought they didn’t really count as true breakthroughs. But now we’re starting to see that these cases are really causing illness in vaccinated people. And I think we’re probably under-diagnosing, or under-reporting a lot of it. I think breakthrough cases are probably very high, relative to what we’re detecting at the moment. I think it is much more serious than the CDC has been until very recently willing to suggest. And that’s because they wanted to stay on message.

 

Why?
They don’t want to panic people. You know, every step they’ve ever taken in this pandemic has been about not causing too much concern in the public. But this is a pandemic. You can’t control things that way. You have to just be honest.

 

And I think what we’re seeing is that viral loads can get very high with Delta. They could actually get high with some of the other variants too, actually. It’s worth mentioning, We are seeing some new data that shows that clearance of the virus from the body is faster, too —

 

So the infectiousness ends more quickly, in other words.
Well, that’s how it’s being interpreted. But at the end of the day, I’d be willing to bet that almost all transmission happens when people are at their peak viral load. And so if peak viral loads are not differing between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated, but the slope downward is maybe faster in the vaccinated, I think we’re pretty much going to see unabated transmission amongst vaccinated. It may not be as much as it would have been if nobody had a vaccine, but I think the idea that we’re going to vaccinate our way to true herd immunity — that idea has to be put to bed for a moment. Until we get a more stable sort of immunity and a more stable set of mutations, we should anticipate that anyone who’s been vaccinated can still transmit.

 

I’ve heard a fair amount of pushback on these studies showing a roughly equivalent viral load between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. One of the main points of criticism is that, because vaccines reduce symptomaticity, you may be drawing from the most severe breakthrough cases and comparing them to a much broader poll of unvaccinated cases. What do you make of that?
That could be the case. But my lab has probably done as much as anyone in the world at this point to really understand all of the confounding factors with viral loads. Now, I’m no oracle here. But what I do well is I look at, what should we expect from the immune system? What should we expect from viral kinetics and how would that play out in the population data? And if your peak viral load is at a billion or a trillion copies per milliliter, you’re going to transmit.

 

But couldn’t we be seeing just the most severe cases of breakthroughs and comparing them to less severe cases among the unvaccinated, because of a sampling bias?
Possibly. But to your point, we haven’t done a very good job at testing the unvaccinated, either. Really the only people who go get tested today at a PCR lab are those who are feeling ill.

 

Right.
So I don’t think we’ve done such exhaustive testing at this point in time that we would really be seeing a major difference in the unvaccinated versus the vaccinated populations.

 

Now, I could be wrong on that if people were really following CDC guidance, which is essentially “don’t get tested if you’ve been vaccinated.” But I don’t think we’re doing a good enough job of testing the asymptomatic unvaccinated to really make that claim. These days, and around much of the world, PCR testing tends to skew toward the symptomatic, likely making the comparisons slightly more comparable.

 

We’ll get to the higher concern categories — symptomatic disease, severe disease, hospitalization, and death. But just to stay with cases for a minute, you said a minute ago that you expected transmission rates to be comparable. That assumes an infection to begin with, right? What about that initial infection? How effective do you think the vaccines are there? 
That’s the place where the argument does break down, in terms of the numbers game — vaccines may mean that there may be a lot of people who just are more resistant to getting any infection. I would say, tentatively, that, if we had a crystal ball, and we could say there are X number of people who have been exposed, then the probability of an exposure turning into an infection is, as an example, 30 percent lower amongst vaccinated.

 

We haven’t seen the data to really show it because it’s extremely difficult to measure. I’d say that there’s a very good chance that vaccines will help prevent an exposure turning into an infection. But amongst those who are getting infected and detected, the viral loads are really high. And we’re clearly seeing transmission happen. We’re seeing outbreaks happen amongst vaccinated groups.

 

So when the CDC says in their presentation that vaccines reduce “disease incidence” eightfold — it sounds like you’re saying the effect is considerably smaller. 
Well, we have to look at what they’re saying. They’re talking about real sickness, not just a transmission chain event. I think it’s plausible that the vaccines do have an eightfold effect on an exposure turning into a clinically relevant case. But in terms of an exposure turning into a transmission event, I don’t think anyone has that data, but I think an eightfold reduction would probably be very generous.

 

Because of all the asymptomatic transmission, in other words. What do you make of their ballpark estimates for hospitalization and death, that vaccines reduce the risks there roughly 25-fold?
I do think they are serving to protect people from hospitalization. Absolutely. But I also do think that we need to consider this a very dynamic process. For a year, really, I’ve been saying that we need to be very cognizant that the way that we’re measuring these vaccines has been, still to this day, within the first month post vaccination.

 

Our most elderly individuals, they started getting vaccinated in February or so. People are now six months out from vaccination. And I think as we start to get further and further out, we’re going to really see those numbers change, and we’ll see that elderly people will become susceptible again.

 

So far, certainly, I think the CDC are being honest with their data. Most people who are being hospitalized are still the unvaccinated. But I do think though that we will start to see outbreaks, hospitalizations, and deaths happen in nursing homes and senior living facilities amongst vaccinated people.

 

And that’s because immunity wanes more quickly in older people?
Yes. Our bodies have an immune age, too. And when an elderly person starts to get nine months post-vaccine, you really start losing the benefits, unless you get a booster.

 

How likely is that, do you think?
I can almost guarantee that our senior citizens will get boosters in the U.S. in the next two months, I think the CDC is going to recommend it — there’s no way they’re not. I think the only reason we haven’t announced it already is that the CDC doesn’t want to concern people. The moment they admit that they’re going to boost people, it sends a message, like, are we in vaccination purgatory here?

 

But the writing’s on the wall. Senior citizens, as they age, don’t have the cells to retain immunological memory very well. Now, if you keep getting vaccinated over five, six years, maybe they can start to build up a much greater cushion of protection. But so far these senior citizens and elderly people in our country and around the world have only been vaccinated twice. Without boosters, I think we should expect that their immune memory will start to wane by the fall.

 

What would that look like?
I project that it could be kind of a perfect storm. In some areas, we’ll see that the mitigation strategies that we put in place are going to fend off Delta a little bit, especially in the Northeast. But it’s going to fend it off just enough so that we hold it back until September, October.

 

And then we’d probably going to see a lot of breakthrough cases in nursing homes. And we’ll probably see these outbreaks in nursing homes turn into hospitalizations and deaths by the end of the year, absent boosters.

 

It sounds like you take seriously that much-debated data from Israel showing somewhat dramatic declines in vaccine efficacy, over time.
I do.

 

How does that play out among the young and middle-aged?
You know, the middle-aged and the young — they’re already very rarely susceptible to severe disease now. Regardless of what the headlines say, it’s still pretty rare to see very severe disease in the middle-aged and young.

 

So even if we see a significant waning of immunity there, I think the young and the middle-aged still have plenty of ability to retain an immune response. In that sense, I’m not nearly as concerned for the younger generations as I am for the elderly.

 

That’s not really a surprise, given what we know about the age skew of the disease and what we know about the immune systems of the old. 
We know that people start to lose the physical architecture of their immunological memory development system as they age. It’s why we get shingles. It’s why we get all kinds of infectious diseases as we get older. It’s why we get cancer, in large part, because our immune system no longer surveys the way it should.

 

So I think when we hit eight or nine months post-vaccination, we should expect among the elderly — especially those over 70, 75 years old — a really significant waning of immunological memory.

 

How significant? Enough to prevent a successful immune response for many of them? 
Well, probably a large fraction would still be able to mount a successful immune response. With almost no data, if I had to put a number to it, I might predict that roughly a third of the people above 70 who are vaccinated might no longer be particularly well-protected. Half might still get symptoms.

 

And the other half might do just fine.
Something like that. That other half will probably still be able to participate in a transmission, but probably won’t be nearly as susceptible themselves. So we’ll still see a much lower degree of severe disease and mortality in terms of the rates of those people who get infected.

 

Hearing you talk about the fall, it doesn’t sound like you’re made all that optimistic by the British or Dutch experiences, where the Delta has already crashed, and pretty quickly. 
Well, we’re just a very heterogeneous and massive landmass. And so if we look at individual cities or states — Florida will get through this relatively quickly, because it’s burning through the state so quickly already. But by the time it gets to the Northeast and really takes over here, I think we’ll be pushing into late September, and we still have a lot of cases happening.

 

And at that point, we’re going to start seeing seasonality really take hold. So I think it will be very similar in fact to what we’ve seen across the world and across this country before — multiple waves, spatially segregated. That’s because we’re a large country with different kinds of attack for this virus and different strategies to control it. And so for the U.S. as a whole that just ends up creating a much longer duration wave than what we see in a smaller country like the U.K., for example.

 

And when you compound the seasonal effect with immunological waning and even immune escape, from Delta and what will inevitably become the next variant …

 

How worried are you about that?
The next variants will be worse, because Delta is now the baseline. All the lineages will derive from Delta. And when you compound the two and you say, okay, you have immunological waning at the same time that you have a new variant, then all of a sudden, we’re in a much more dire situation with the elderly, where people who think that they’re protected, just won’t be.

 

It’s not going to be everyone. There’s going to be plenty of people who have a good “immune age” — despite being 85 years old, your immunological clock might still be doing just fine. But there’s going to be a lot of people, maybe as much as a third, who are really not protected anymore. And I think we have to come to grips with that and we’re going to have to figure out how to deal with it.

 

Hearing you talk about the fall, it sounds pretty bad: Herd immunity is out the window, you say, so the disease can’t be eliminated. But there are also going to be these flare-ups among the vulnerable elderly, which make it somewhat more threatening than the other endemic diseases people often talk about when contemplating this endgame. It won’t threaten at the scale it did in 2020, but also won’t just be the flu, and we’ll be managing it in a sort of ongoing way without a real expiration date in mind.
I think that’s basically right, at least until we see this virus find a nice equilibrium where it is kind of evolutionarily happy to sit where it’s at and not really evolve much more — until there isn’t really a reason to continue evolving. But who knows when it will run out of tricks. And until we really see it run out of tricks, we have to be concerned that it will keep creating these new baselines.

 

As Delta is now our baseline.
I think we can’t take our eye off of that reality until the virus figures out a nice valley where it’s energetically stable, it has enough transmission to keep yourself going, and it doesn’t really have any more tricks up its sleeve to really break through any more. But that might be a year or two away still. So this might continue happening. I do think, though, that the more exposures people have will help.

 

That was your message when we were talking about the Yankees. 
I’ve always said that we’re going to age out of this virus. People are going to keep getting exposed. And whether it’s to Delta or to a variant in five months from now, every time you or I or anyone else gets exposed — they’re really building up a decent cushion of immunity with each of those exposures. So it’s only a matter of time before we actually have not only vaccine-derived immunity but natural infection-derived immunity, too.

 

When you start coupling all that together, you can picture it kind of like a sandwich, just continuing to stack up. Then we can start to say, okay, now, you know, even if the virus changes a bit, I’ve built up so much protection already. I’ve got all these antibodies that not only recognize the spike proteins from the virus, which is what we see with the vaccines, but I’ve now been exposed three times. And so even if the virus mutates this part, I already recognize these other parts. That’s kind of how we’re going to get out of this. That’s how our immune system learns. It’s going to be maybe a couple-year-long endeavor still, and everyone who’s been vaccinated probably will get exposed — eventually, hopefully, without causing any symptoms. I think we’ll get there, but it’s going to be a longer road than we’d like to believe.

 

This interview has been edited and condensed.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 26 2021 at 10:52pm

Thanks for that article, good read, good info, bad-but not unexpected-news....

DJ

I have been saying vaccines are buying us time. Statistics are needed to "follow the developments". But good statistics may be hard if not impossible...

I would welcome much more ad random testing-also in vaccinated people without symptoms (also in pets, other animals, if we want to have a realistic view on the spread). The CDC claimed last year (I think) 59% of cases then were asymptomatic (but infected=spreading the virus). With massive vaccinations-I as a non-expert-would estimate around 80% of infections/spread now is without symptoms (I may have picked up that number somewhere...). 

The present often used statistics "shows" most cases are in the unvaccinated...And of course if you "pick" all the cases since january 2020 you can expect proberbly 90% of cases to be in the unvaccinated because vaccines were not a major factor untill maybe 6-7 months ago...

For PR-reasons-selling the vaccine-you may overestimate the level of protection. But it is NOT the CDC (etc.) job to "sell" the vaccines ! 

Healthauthorities have to keep an eye on health...not bussinesses !

Governments should "serve the public"...protecting them from risks...was the idea...somehow politics gave up that idea long time ago....

So who else is a factor ? "Media" ? Often "embedded" non-critical echo's of both government, politics (two different things...) and "experts"....a sort of "mental chewing gum"...For every story you can find your own expert, politician...

The above article is an example of-disappearing-good journalism....

That leaves this story up to us ! Trying to stay informed, thinking...discussing, accepting we may never get a 100% understanding...like all other players...but we do not need to know 100% of the story to understand some basics.

I think-still-vaccines are doing great. But you have to be realistic-again-to get out of this pandemic we need more then vaccines !

What you accept as level of disease in younger (often healthy) people may be open for discussion. To be clear if I had a child at the age of elementary school I would not send that child to school ! Allow limited social contacts, encourage to find safe alternatives...

The way I see it; "Living with the virus is living with a pandemic"....I still see "zero-CoViD" as the only realistic strategy...

Again-as a non-expert-maybe my basic point ! [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus ; Coronaviruses are a group of related RNA viruses that cause diseases in mammals and birds. In humans and birds, they cause respiratory tract infections that can range from mild to lethal. Mild illnesses in humans include some cases of the common cold (which is also caused by other viruses, predominantly rhinoviruses), while more lethal varieties can cause SARSMERS, and COVID-19. In cows and pigs they cause diarrhea, while in mice they cause hepatitis and encephalomyelitis

DJ Corona-viral disease is widespread in a lot of hosts....A strategy that may be effective against a flu-pandemic may be useless against corona-virus diseases....

"Delta" as a baseline can mean two options; 1. The article does not mention the (explosion of) Delta+ variants...AY.1 to endless...So Delta variant itself is allready bad news !

2. It will not be the last variant ! Delta R0 is between 5 and 8, Delta is now the dominant variant...in combination with both vaccine and natural immunity new-worse-variants may need more time to show up...

I would love to believe [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global cases -13%, global deaths -12% would mean we are moving slowly out of this pandemic. 

We have some view of vaccine immunity. Natural immunity may be a major factor in "countries we keep poor"-often with a younger population (people often do not get that old...most of the severe cases were in the older age groups-in "poor countries" that age group is much smaller). 

In South America, Africa, most of Asia vaccines have been a limited factor most. (Chile did use a lot of Chinese vaccins...some of them maybe "help" limiting severe disease-do less on stopping infections. So the result could be some vaccines ending up with better "natural immunity"?)

When this pandemic started there was some hope exposure to some "cold-coronavirusses" could also result in "better natural immunity"...Maybe-at the end-"herd immunity" may still become a factor ? 

Boostervaccines proberbly will be part of the strategy as well...around the globe-and at least in part for political reasons and profits...For now they also increase protection...

-Other news;

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/small-landslides-beginning-on-lapalma[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/small-landslides-beginning-on-lapalma DJ Some landslides happening on La Palma...proberbly not unexpected. Does this mean "a super-tsunami" is coming...I think still a very small chance-but not 0%, not impossible...

[url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/[/url] or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Will "Sam" destroy New York coming weekend as a cat.5 ? It may reach the US east coast by then-maybe even as a "major" hurricane...but New York most likely will not be "destroyed" by just one hurricane...Point of course is that "blow after blow" CAN do a lot of damage...Can the NYC subway system deal with that on the long term ? 

-Flutrackers latest news (etc);

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924391-hospital-physician%E2%80%99s-assistant-fired-after-her-efforts-to-report-adverse-events-after-covid-vaccinations-to-vaers-cause-administrators-fear-of-federal-reprisals[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924391-hospital-physician%E2%80%99s-assistant-fired-after-her-efforts-to-report-adverse-events-after-covid-vaccinations-to-vaers-cause-administrators-fear-of-federal-reprisals ; In a Highwire exclusive, Deborah Conrad, a hospitalist physician’s assistant on the frontlines of the pandemic, pulls back the curtain on the complete lack and disregard in her hospital for reporting Covid vaccine injury to VAERS, this country’s only mechanism to track the safety of these rushed-to-market, mandated products. In riveting detail, including emails & recorded phone conversations, Conrad exposes the internal push to turn a blind eye to injuries and “tow the company line” that this vaccine is safe. 

Dr.John Campbell also discussing HOW vaccinations are done...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBaIRm4610o[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBaIRm4610o ; Intravenous Injection of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA Vaccine Can Induce Acute Myopericarditis in Mouse Model  

Background Post-vaccination myocarditis and pericarditis reported after coronavirus mRNA vaccines.  

The effect of accidental intravenous injection of this vaccine on the heart is unknown 

Methods in mice Compared difference between i.m. and i.v. injection of vaccine 

DJ i.m=in muscle, i.v. in vessel 

Results Intravenous SARS-CoV-2 mRNA Vaccine Administration Induced Grossly Visible Pathology in Heart 

Only IV group developed histopathological changes of myopericarditis 

Evidenced by cardiomyocyte degeneration 

Apoptosis Necrosis with adjacent inflammatory cell infiltration 

Calcific deposits on visceral pericardium

DJ In vaccination check where the needle is should be basic...often you want the needle in a muscle-so inserting the needle-if there is blood when you "aspirate" then you are NOT in the muscle...this is so basic ! At least part of the complications after vaccinations are the outcome of putting the vaccine in the WRONG place-a bloodvessel and not checking for that...

Dr.J.C.;

Conclusions; 

In vivo evidence that inadvertent intravenous injection of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines may induce myopericarditis.  

Brief withdrawal of syringe plunger to exclude blood aspiration may be one possible way to reduce such risk. (DJ !!!!!!)

Both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have clearly stated that their vaccines should only be given via IM route 

Current CDC and WHO guidelines no longer recommend precautionary measures during IM vaccine administration

The CDC Pink Book 2020 and WHO 2015 position paper have recommended against aspiration prior to vaccine injection so as to minimize pain 

So the problem is not in the vaccine but in how the vaccination is done !!! To limit chances of pain there may not be "aspiration" pulling back the syringe plunger to see if you did touch a (small) blood vessel...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924379-as-japan-s-fifth-covid-19-wave-wanes-officials-warn-against-complaency[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924379-as-japan-s-fifth-covid-19-wave-wanes-officials-warn-against-complaency ; A delta-driven surge in COVID-19 cases is coming to a faster-than-expected end in Japan, but experts warn another wave of infections may be just around the corner.

The country's fifth wave was the most explosive yet and wreaked havoc on the nation’s health care system. But the surge has subsided significantly since its mid-August peak.

-

Despite a slow start, Japan’s vaccine rollout has progressed rapidly over the past few months. The share of people who have received at least one shot of the vaccine has reached 68%, surpassing Germany's rate of 67% and that of the United States at 63%, according to the latest data compiled by Our World in Data.

A health ministry advisory panel pointed to other contributing factors, too. Many people, it said, were likely discouraged from going out due to a lengthy period of rainy weather in Tokyo and other parts of the country last month. Others may have been scared enough to change their behavior amid a barrage of grim COVID-19 stories in the news and the dire situation facing front-line health care workers...

...The need for vigilance was echoed by Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike, who told reporters on Friday that despite dwindling daily cases, there is nothing optimistic to report when it comes to hospitalizations and the number of severely ill patients.

The number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Tokyo, for example, was 2,046 as of Wednesday, which Koike said remained significantly higher than in March, when the nation was thought to be safely past a third wave that had flared up in early January and the number reached a low of 1,250.

Likewise, the number of severely ill patients in Tokyo totaled 146 on Wednesday, nearly the same as the 160 recorded in the throes of the third wave in January, the governor said...

DJ In many places numbers go down-but the result worldwide is still a high level of cases..

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924378-explosive-rise-in-infections-disrupts-korea-s-path-to-live-with-covid-19-strategy[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924378-explosive-rise-in-infections-disrupts-korea-s-path-to-live-with-covid-19-strategy ; An explosive rise in coronavirus cases following the Chuseok holiday is causing disruptions to the government's plan to adopt a "live with COVID-19" strategy from late next month.

The administration previously said that it was drawing up a plan to implement such a strategy, under which antivirus restrictions would be gradually eased, from the end of October when 70 percent of the country's 52 million population is expected to be fully vaccinated.

But the plan is now facing uncertainty due to a surge in infections following the long weekend holiday, which ran from Sept. 18 to 22, during which millions of people travelled across the country to visit their family.

The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) reported 3,273 new infections for Friday, among which 3,245 were local transmissions, a record high since the coronavirus outbreak reached here.

The daily tally for Saturday dropped to 2,771, mainly due to fewer tests on the weekend, but was still the second highest number of cases recorded.

However, the worst is yet to come, according to medical experts who believe that the latest tallies do not truly reflect the number of infections during the holiday...

DJ In some regions CoViD-19 is causing serious problems, in other regions "it is almost like the pandemic is over"...Also questioning "living with the virus"...One thing that needs to change is communications...If the public can not trust "authorities" it will not follow the rules. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/924375-c-infect-dis-the-host-immune-response-of-a-discharged-covid-19-patient-with-twice-reemergence-of-sars-cov-2-a-case-report[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/924375-c-infect-dis-the-host-immune-response-of-a-discharged-covid-19-patient-with-twice-reemergence-of-sars-cov-2-a-case-report ; Case presentation: In this case, we reported a 64-year-old patient who had a long-term course of COVID-19 for 174 days with two retests of SARS-CoV-2 RNA positive after discharging from the hospital. The patient's serum immunoglobulin G (IgG) of SARS-CoV-2 tested positive after the initial infection. And during treatment, the CD4 + T cell count and ratio to peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) were in dynamic change.
Conclusions: Our results suggested that the host immune system responded with IgG production after SARS-CoV-2 infection, but was not protective enough for the patient. The reemergence of SARS-CoV-2 could be related to the cell count and proportion of CD4 + T cells in PBMC. And the increase of CD4 + T cells after treatment may help to clear the virus.

DJ-Immunity is not always as good as we want it to be.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/924374-trends-genet-superspreading-in-the-emergence-of-covid-19-variants[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/924374-trends-genet-superspreading-in-the-emergence-of-covid-19-variants ; Superspreading and variants of concern (VOC) of the human pathogen severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are the main catalyzers of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, measuring their individual impact is challenging. By examining the largest database of SARS-CoV-2 genomes The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data [GISAID; n >1.2 million high-quality (HQ) sequences], we present evidence suggesting that superspreading has had a key role in the epidemiological predominance of VOC. There are clear signatures in the database compatible with large superspreading events (SSEs) coinciding chronologically with the worst epidemiological scenarios triggered by VOC. The data suggest that, without the randomness effect of the genetic drift facilitated by superspreading, new VOC of SARS-CoV-2 would have had more limited chance of success.

DJ This should translate to limiting mass-events if you want to get a better grip on this pandemic. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/preparedness-ab/924394-int-j-infect-dis-covid-19-pandemic-lessons-learned-from-more-than-a-century-of-pandemics-and-current-vaccine-development-for-pandemic-control[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/preparedness-ab/924394-int-j-infect-dis-covid-19-pandemic-lessons-learned-from-more-than-a-century-of-pandemics-and-current-vaccine-development-for-pandemic-control ; Pandemic dynamics and health care responses are markedly different during the COVID-19 pandemic than in earlier outbreaks. 

Compared with established infectious disease such as influenza, we currently know relatively little about the origin, reservoir, cross-species transmission and evolution of SARS-CoV-2. 

Health care services, drug availability, laboratory testing, research capacity and global governance are more advanced than during 20th century pandemics, although COVID-19 has highlighted significant gaps. 

The risk of zoonotic transmission and an associated new pandemic is rising substantially. 

COVID-19 vaccine development has been done at unprecedented speed, with the usual sequential steps done in parallel. 

The pandemic has illustrated the feasibility of this approach and the benefits of a globally coordinated response and infrastructure. 

Some of the COVID-19 vaccines recently developed or currently in development might offer flexibility or sufficiently broad protection to swiftly respond to antigenic drift or emergence of new coronaviruses. 

Yet many challenges remain, including the large-scale production of sufficient quantity of vaccines, delivery of vaccines to all countries and ensuring vaccination of relevant age groups. 

This wide vaccine technology approach will be best employed in tandem with active surveillance for emerging variants or new pathogens using antigen mapping, metagenomics and next generation sequencing. 

DJ- STOP THE SPREAD !!! Increase-large scale-ad random testing in possible host to look for a/pre-symptomatic spread ! 

At present strategies are asking for new-more immune evading-variants !

-Music; Westlife - You Raise Me Up [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bxc9hbwkkw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bxc9hbwkkw  ;

Lyrics;

 When I am down and, oh my soul, so weary; 

When troubles come and my heart burdened be; 

Then, I am still and wait here in the silence, 

Until you come and sit awhile with me. 


You raise me up, so I can stand on mountains; 

You raise me up, to walk on stormy seas; 

I am strong, when I am on your shoulders; 

You raise me up... To more than I can be.


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 27 2021 at 12:34pm

I took one of my children for a vaccination this week and I asked the nurse if she was going to aspirate and she told me bluntly that you don't aspirate with vaccines!! 



Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 27 2021 at 12:38pm

I know some countries are showing rapidly falling Covid numbers and it's as if Covid is dying out there, and certainly they are no longer viewing it as a problem, and the common factor seems to be that they are third world countries that traditionally have much younger populations. 

So maybe it's because they don't have the inverted demographic triangle that we have in the West that means their old and vulnerable were taken out in the first wave and now there are not many at risk people left to catch it, and the vast majority of the remaining population, Covid means a nasty cold and not much else.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 27 2021 at 9:29pm

KiwiMum, what I find interesting is to see how similar countries that have much in common still may show differences...

Numbers; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

UK cases +14%, deaths -4%, cpm=112,718, dpm=1,993

NL cases -14%, deaths -38%, cpm=116,279, dpm=1,057

Belgium cases -28%, deaths -2%, cpm=105,880, dpm=2,193

Germany cases -13%, deaths +5%, cpm=50,063, dpm 1,118

cpm=cases per million, dpm=deaths per million - for comparison

US cases -17%, deaths -9%, cpm=131,798, dpm=2,127

What can explain those differences ? One factor may average age of population...the older a population the more people are likely to get very ill, die from CoViD. But proberbly another factor may be timing...UK lifting to much restrictions to soon. Belgium and NL did lift (most) restrictions somewhat later in the pandemic proces. The UK was one of the early vaccination starters..by now immunity in the most vulnarable could be low.

All of the European countries do have a higher level of vaccinations then the US. In general maybe also basic health and basic public healthcare may be better in Europe. Belgium scores high in dpm because they include ALL people dying from CoViD-including those in carecenters...The UK only includes those that die within 4 weeks after a positive test...NL excludes a lot of CoViD-deaths from care centers...

What is much harder to have statistics on is how people behave...Here in NL still 20% less people in shopping/city centers compared to the 2019 number. Also tourism may be back at 2019 levels in 2024...

Israel cases -31%, deaths -28%, cpm=136,203, dpm=824

Israel has a young population (I believe over 30% is under 18). So cases per million may be the highest in this list of countries, deaths per million is the lowest...Booster vaccines are showing effects...

-Since I like to link history [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/09/how-centuries-old-local-differences-still-influence-german-politics.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/09/how-centuries-old-local-differences-still-influence-german-politics.html .

The story shows how borders going back to 16th/17th century still show up in last sunday elections. You proberbly can also put a map of this pandemic over it and find out that some regions were hit harder...both rural and urban-then other regions. 

Age, poverty, education, housing all show up. For that matter the link between politics and pandemic is clear to see in most countries. (And very clear in the US). 

Another aspect of history is language. The Dutch word "snoep" means candy, sweets...People did hide they were eating to much of it...so "to snoop" in American English became acting in secret, hiding things...

Old Dutch "ampele consideratiën" =ample considerations...but the "Old Dutch" words are now out of use, very old fashion...

Do words-in a way-behave like virusses ? Dutch "stoep" linked to US "stoop"...in Dutch meaning sidewalk, in the US porch...but also bending-once the Dutch scrubbed the front of the house...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924410-cidrap-life-expectancy-falls-in-27-of-29-nations-amid-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924410-cidrap-life-expectancy-falls-in-27-of-29-nations-amid-covid-19 ; Life expectancy dipped during the COVID-19 pandemic, the magnitude of which had not been seen in a single year since World War II in Western Europe and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe, according to a study of 29 countries.
The results, published yesterday in the International Journal of Epidemiology, showed that COVID-19 offset most life expectancy gains in the 5 years leading up to the pandemic in many countries. Declines were most precipitous in the United States, where males lost 2.2 years in 2020 relative to 2019 and where COVID-19 contributed significantly to high death rates in the under-60 age-group.

More than 5 years of progress 'wiped out'

A team led by University of Oxford researchers used public health data to construct life tables by sex from 2015 to 2020 for 29 countries, which spanned most of Europe, Chile, and the United States. They compared life expectancy at birth and at age 60 for 2020 with trends over 2015 to 2019.
In 2019, life expectancy at birth among females ranged from 78.6 years in Bulgaria to 86.5 years in Spain, while male life expectancy ranged from 71.4 years in Lithuania to 82.2 years in Switzerland.
Life expectancy at birth fell from 2019 to 2020 in 27 of 29 countries, with US and Lithuanian males seeing the largest declines, at 2.2 and 1.7 years, respectively. Males in 11 countries and females in 8 countries lost more than 1 year of life expectancy. "To contextualize, it took on average 5.6 years for these countries to achieve a 1-year increase in life expectancy recently: progress wiped out over the course of 2020 by COVID-19," the authors wrote.
High death rates in women 80 and older in all countries and in men aged 60 to 79 in many countries contributed the most to life expectancy reductions in 2020. The largest declines (at least 1.5 years) of life expectancy at birth were observed among males in the United States, Lithuania, Bulgaria, and Poland and among females in the United States and Spain.
The drops were mainly tied to higher death rates in those younger than 60 in the United States and those older than 60 in Europe. The researchers said the pandemic may have exacted a higher toll in working-age US adults because of their relatively higher rates of underlying illnesses aggravated by structural racism and inequitable healthcare access.
The countries with the largest reductions in male remaining life expectancy at 60 years were Poland, the United States, and Spain (more than 1.4 years each). Remaining life expectancy at age 60 for females in Spain, the United States, and Belgium fell by more than 1.2 years.
Compared with 2015, a year in which life expectancy was also affected by a particularly severe flu season, males from 10 counties and females from 15 countries had lower life expectancies at birth in 2020.

DJ The numbers for 2021 will make the statistics even worse...If we do see a severe winter, strong flu season, summer heatwave a bit more extreme and longer lasting it could result in an even stronger decrease of life expectency...with not only more deaths in the over 60 y/o age group but also in those with health issues (like long CoViD). 

So far most countries did see a decrease in growth...some countries allready were expecting population to decrease. 

If Delta/new variants would show to do a lot of damage in the under 20 y/o the statistics would get even worse. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924409-cidrap-countries-walk-fine-line-in-easing-covid-19-restrictions[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924409-cidrap-countries-walk-fine-line-in-easing-covid-19-restrictionsDelta (B1617.2) variant transmission is complicating plans for easing COVID-19 restrictions in some Asian nations, including Singapore and South Korea, countries that have won praise for their containment efforts over the past pandemic months.

DJ Above I did write that timing may have been a major factor in the UK, Israel as well...(Israel has a younger population so that limited the damage). It does matter if you lift restrictions with 1,000 people per 100,000 still spreading the virus or just 50 per 100,000 !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924408-cidrap-us-covid-19-cases-drop-for-first-time-in-3-months[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924408-cidrap-us-covid-19-cases-drop-for-first-time-in-3-months ; The summer surge of COVID-19 cases caused by the Delta (B1617.2) variant may be tapering off after causing the fourth wave of heightened pandemic activity in the United States.
The 7-day average of new daily COVID-19 cases is 118,015, with 1,996 deaths, according to the Washington Post tracker. In the past week, new daily cases fell 20%, deaths fell 0.8%, and hospitalizations fell 8.9%.
According to NBC News, the drop in COVID-19 cases over the last week is the longest sustained decline in cases in nearly 3 months. NBC said the fourth wave likely peaked on Sep 13, when the 7-day average of cases at 166,807.
Though new case counts and hospitalizations seems to be declining, experts warned the peak deaths caused by this wave are still likely 2 to 4 weeks away, as has been seen throughout the pandemic.

-

Today President Joe Biden publicly received a Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine booster shot in front of reporters, because he is over 65 and it has been more than 6 months since he finished his primary vaccination series.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommended Pfizer booster doses on Friday for those over 65, those at risk for severe COVID-19, and those who are at increased risk of exposure due to where they work or live.

DJ It is very likely the US number of cases will go down for some time-even with limited vaccinations. This pandemic comes in waves. People do change the way they behave. Even persons that deny all of this pandemic, do not want a vaccine, do get less chance to get infected most of the time. 

If city centers see 10%+ less people then in 2019, travel may be more limited, more people have immunity even persons in total denial may face a decrease of risk of infection. We may not get 100% herd immunity-but we do have a major increase of herd immunity both due to vaccines and the way we act. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924405-cidrap-covid-19-scan-anticoagulants-and-covid-19-covid-hospitalization-and-poverty-race[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924405-cidrap-covid-19-scan-anticoagulants-and-covid-19-covid-hospitalization-and-poverty-race ;The prevalence of COVID-related hospitalizations early in the pandemic was linked with poverty and minority status in the United States, according to a study published in PLOS One late last week.
The researchers look at US COVID-19 hospitalizations from Mar 1 to Apr 30, 2020, using COVID-NET data, which covers about 10% of the country's population across 14 states. Out of 16,000 adults who were hospitalized for COVID-19, 34.8% were White people, 36.3% were Black people, and 18.2% were Hispanic or Latino people. Age-adjusted COVID-related hospitalization was higher in census tracts with 15.2% to 83.2% of people living below the federal poverty line compared with census tracts where 0% to 4.9% were (151.6 hospitalizations per 100,000 people vs 75.5).

DJ The bad news is even if you are vaccinated, when you are black, poor, live in a low-vaccination area, you still run much more risks then when you are white, rich and not did take the vaccine !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924404-cidrap-news-scan-antibiotics-after-mastectomy-southern-hemisphere-flu-vaccine-picks-nipah-virus-in-india[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924404-cidrap-news-scan-antibiotics-after-mastectomy-southern-hemisphere-flu-vaccine-picks-nipah-virus-in-india ; Last week the World Health Organization (WHO) flu vaccine advisors met to recommend the strains to include in the Southern Hemisphere's 2022-season flu vaccines, which swaps out two strains compared with the current season's vaccines.
For both egg- and cell-based vaccines, the advisors recommend replacing the H3N2 component, switching from influenza A/Hong Kong/2671/2019 and A/Hong Kong/45/2019-like viruses, respectively, to influenza A/Darwin/9/2021-like and A/Darwin/6/2021-like viruses, respectively. The WHO notes that it sometimes recommends different viruses for the different production systems, because flu viruses don't always replicate equally well among the egg- and cell-based systems.
Also, for both production systems, the WHO recommends swapping out the influenza B/Victoria lineage component, replacing the influenza B/Washington/2/2019-like virus with B/Austria/1359417/2021-like virus. The team also recommended that trivalent (three-strain) vaccines contain Victoria as the influenza B lineage vaccine virus.
For comparison, Northern Hemisphere flu vaccines for the current season—recommended by the group in February—will contain two strains that are different from the Southern Hemisphere's upcoming vaccine. One is the H3N2 component, an influenza A/Cambodia/e0826360/2020-like virus for both production systems, and for the influenza B Victoria lineage, an influenza B/Washington/02/2019-like virus, also for both production systems.
The WHO flu surveillance in many countries has recovered from COVID-related disruptions, and though more clinical specimens were tested in 2021 than in 2020, flu detections were vastly reduced, with few viruses available for analysis.

-

WHO fleshes out details of India's recent Nipah virus case  

The WHO said the boy's illness is the only case detected, and the event occurred in a rural area of Kerala state, located in southern India, where an outbreak occurred in 2018. Fruit bats were identified as the likely source of that outbreak. The WHO said the national and regional risks from the recent case are both low.
Nipah virus disease is an emerging zoonotic threat, with the virus spreads through direct contact with infected animals, contaminated food products, or close contact with infected people. It has a high fatality rate, and there are no approved treatments or vaccines, though monoclonal antibodies have been developed and are sometimes available under compassionate use.

DJ We may face a "strong flu season" on the northern part of this globe. On the other hand at least some of those most vulnarable may have died earlier on. 

I would expect to see studies on combining flu/covid-booster vaccines. Does getting a flu-vaccination decrease the chances for severe CoViD ?  There are some indications for that. I also would love to see much more study on "boosting immunity" because we simply can not prevent every infection ! The better the body can defend itself the less chance diseases get !

And Nipah shows there are more then enough other diseases that may become a risk. Public health should be priority #1 in many ways; from clean air to good housing, good education-also on healt ! Better food, clean water, more public-clean-toilets !

If we did spent the money now used in wars since 2000 on increasing public health in all these ways we most likely would not have seen this pandemic ! It would have been detected, recognized as a risk, much earlier !

This pandemic is the result of wrong politics, wrong choices !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/924396-ann-clin-microbiol-antimicrob-bacterial-and-fungal-growth-in-sputum-cultures-from-165-covid-19-pneumonia-patients-requiring-intubation-evidence-for-antimicrobial-resistance-development-and-analysis-of-risk-factors[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/924396-ann-clin-microbiol-antimicrob-bacterial-and-fungal-growth-in-sputum-cultures-from-165-covid-19-pneumonia-patients-requiring-intubation-evidence-for-antimicrobial-resistance-development-and-analysis-of-risk-factorsResults: Average patient age was 68.7 years and LOS 19.9 days. Eighty-three patients (50.3% of total) originated from home, 10 from group homes (6.1% of total), and 72 from nursing facilities (43.6% of total). Mortality was 62.4%, highest for nursing home residents (80.6%). Findings from 253 sputum cultures overall did not suggest acute bacterial or fungal infection in 73 (45%) of 165 individuals sampled within 24 h of intubation. Cultures ≥ 1 week following intubation did grow potential pathogens in 72 (64.9%) of 111 cases with 70.8% consistent with late pneumonia and 29.2% suggesting colonization. Twelve (10.8% of total) of these late post-intubation cultures revealed worsened antimicrobial resistance predominantly in Pseudomonas, Enterobacter, or Staphylococcus aureus.
Conclusions: In severe COVID-19 pneumonia, a radiographic ground glass interstitial pattern and lack of purulent sputum prior to/around the time of intubation correlated with no culture growth or recovery of normal oral flora ± yeast. Discontinuation of empiric antibacterials should be considered in these patients aided by other clinical findings, history of prior antimicrobials, laboratory testing, and overall clinical course. Continuing longterm hospitalisation and antibiotics are associated with sputum cultures reflective of hospital-acquired microbes and increasing antimicrobial resistance.

DJ When people end up in ICU they are very vulnarable ! Knowing how to limit risks fot fungal/bacterial co-infections will save lives. 

-I did not see a new video of Dr. John Campbell. I leave the stories on hurricane/earthquakes for what they are...not yet a major risk. 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9vBjkpP97E[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9vBjkpP97E Alexander Mercouris on Russia. 

There was a meeting in the UN with EU/(France) "foreign secretary" and Russian FM Lavrov a.o. on Mali. That African country did ask for Russian help against "jihadi's" (sponsored by Arab Gulf States...). France-claiming to speak as "all of the EU" is against increasing Russian involvement in (former French occupied parts of) Africa...

Russia/Putin preparing for a more state-controlled economy-like a.o. China has...less room for "neo-liberalism". 

On the same time there is a growing energy crisis in the west. In part due to logistics-enough fuel but at the wrong place...a severe shortage of truckdrivers. Some in the west like to blame Russia for that...

The US democrats want "war with Russia", US republicans seek "war with China"....US politics is a total disaster zone !

In the UK BoJo thinks it is 1821-not 2021-seeking confrontation with Russia, China, even France...

The EU as always united-divided...France may have some nostalgia to its empire-with Macron also living in the wrong century...Germany-after Merkel-may also be a factor. 

So international stability is far away...

Pandemic-wise we NEED URGENT MORE global cooperation...but we may see the opposite of that. 

Cuba is now exporting its vaccines. Russia may seek better relations with India while China-after Pakistan, may go for more investments in Iran. 

So the outlook for the pandemic being dealt with in a united global plan is getting even less realistic...

Every pandemic comes on top of a certain background. The Spanish Flu may have stayed much more limited if there was not a World War One...

-Music; Black Betty-the 1933 version from a Texas prison...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tiCEVl_9-MM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tiCEVl_9-MM  A comment from Matthew Ebert; 

James "Iron Head" Baker, recorded in the field by US musicologists John and Alan Lomax in December 1933, performed a cappella by the convict James "Iron Head" Baker and a group at Central State Farm, Sugar Land, Texas (a State prison farm).[12] Baker was 63 years old at the time of the recording.  The Lomaxes were recording for the Library of Congress and later field recordings in 1934, 1936, and 1939 also include versions of "Black Betty". A notated version was published in 1934 in the Lomaxes book American Ballads and Folk Songs. It was recorded commercially in New York in April 1939 for the Musicraft Records label by Lead Belly, as part of a medley with two other work songs.  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Betty

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 28 2021 at 11:36am

I find it interesting that there was an almost level of anticipatory glee at the prospect of Covid hitting the big third world populations like Africa and India and I remember hearing a number of commentators saying that it would be terrible when it hit there and without our access to vaccines it would be devastating, and yet the opposite has proven to be the case and now all of a sudden the Western world has stopped talking about them.

It's as if no one wants to point out the obvious which is that the countries have come through Covid without the vaccines and are doing just fine. Their numbers are low, deaths are dropping. The only factor that I can think of, other than their ready access to Ivermectin, is that they didn't have a huge population of elderly or vulnerable people for the disease to ravage. Whereas in the West, where vaccines are readily available, Covid is still running riot.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 28 2021 at 5:28pm


KiwiMum,

Although this article is posted in August,to suggest Africa was not impacted is not accurate. Yes,their numbers have since declined like many other countries.  

https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/03/africa/delta-variant-covid-africa-intl/index.

Abuja, Nigeria (CNN)Coronavirus deaths in Africa rose rapidly over the past month, as fatalities surged by 80 percent within the last four weeks, the World Health Organization has said.

WHO's Vaccine Introduction Officer for the African Region, Phionah Atuhebwe, told CNN on Monday that the continent was witnessing an unprecedented rise in coronavirus fatalities.

"COVID-19 death rates have increased across Africa, with the highest weekly rate (6,343) to date reported during the week starting 19 July 2021," said Atuhebwe.    

"Deaths increased by 89%, from 13,242 to 24,987, in the last 28 days, when compared against statistics for the previous 28 days," she added.



https://qz.com/africa/2049407/why-has-covid-19-had-less-of-an-impact-in-africa/

 This article talks of reasons why central Africa could have been less affected,maybe this explains your no link post.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 28 2021 at 6:52pm

Thanks Pixie. I'm well aware that Africa and India were really hit by it in the first wave, what I was suggesting though is that the drop in their numbers might be due to their bottom heavy demographics - put bluntly, there were less old people and clinically vulnerable people to kill off, and certainly in India, almost all the deaths from Covid were in those catagories. So with them out of the way, second and third waves and beyond are having much less of an impact. 

Whilst I'm well aware that the occasional child and younger adult dies from Covid, the vast majority don't. The vast majority don't even have a serious illness, and this was stated by that doctor being interviewed in that excellent article you posted, so the overall trend in these countries is downward. I'm sure it's endemic though and will just happily simmer away for years to come, but it's not doing the damage per capita that it is in the first world countries were there are millions of oldies who's vaccines are wearing off and making them available again for serious illness and or death.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 28 2021 at 8:54pm

DJ,

Trying to get more info from "ACDC" [url]https://africacdc.org/download/outbreak-brief-89-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-pandemic/[/url] or https://africacdc.org/download/outbreak-brief-89-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-pandemic/ lots of words...

For that matter Pixies link [url]https://qz.com/africa/2049407/why-has-covid-19-had-less-of-an-impact-in-africa/[/url] or https://qz.com/africa/2049407/why-has-covid-19-had-less-of-an-impact-in-africa/ may provide the best available indications. 

Very young population, maybe some more local other Corona-virus offering (some) protection, no care centers almost-if only 2% of the population is over 65...so no spread in those centers resulting in high numbers for both cases and deaths...I think limited travel may have also been a factor. Most people in Africa are poor...Also living outdoors would result in less spread/viral load. A.o. Kenya did keep its schools closed for months...

Yet the main factor proberbly is lack of testing, lack of reporting, lack of a basic civil administration of births and deaths...So the main factor is "we do not know"....

Maybe also a remark on age-distribution. Young people often may get infected and show no or only mild symptoms. Yet that does not mean they are "less of a risk" pandemic wise (I think-but I am not an expert...). The young age groups most likely are more social active-so more spread. Also more risk of mutations, variants...

Two major variants came from Africa-the SA/South African and the Nigeria-variant. Africa is "big"! With lots of mega-cities, extreme inequality with a lot of people changing todays income for this evenings food...

-Some numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

Global numbers, US still over 100,000 new cases per day-1,836 deaths. UK at #2 with almost 35,000 new cases, 186 reported deaths...Turkey, India, Russia make the cases-top 5. Brasil only reporting 15,395 cases and 818 deaths at #6 (for deaths it would end up at #3). 

Total reported global cases yesterday was 426,569 cases and 7,929 deaths. Global trends cases -10%, deaths -9%...We are over the "Delta-peak" , global third (?) wave...

USA total cases per million (cpm)=132,134 deaths per million (dpm) 2,133 testing 1,9 times all of its population.

Germany cpm= 50,151, dpm= 1,119 testing 0,9

Russia cpm= 51,124, dpm= 1,408 testing 1,3

Brazil cpm=99,713, dpm=2,777 testing 0,3

India cpm= 24,137  dpm=321  testing 0,4

South Africa cpm= 48,126, dpm=1,451, test 0,3

Nigeria cpm= 965, dpm=13 test= 0,01

Egypt cpm= 2,894, dpm= 165, test= 0,04

Kenya cpm= 4,504, dpm= 93, test= 0,05

Of course in some countries (Somalia, Libya) there is hardly a central government...Translating 0,01 testing=965 cases/13 deaths in Nigeria to 1 testing (so if testing would have been much better) would find 96,500 cases per million, 1,300 deaths per million is specualtion. However that kind of cpm/dpm-ratio proberbly is more realistic...

DJ-Lack of testing may be the major factor why Africa has such low numbers. Population wise Africa may have a bit younger population then South America/Brazil...And-of course-Africa is very diverse ! Mali is different then Uganda, South Africa, Egypt or Morocco ! 

Since there often is not a good basic administration, statistics "excess deaths" may also not give the info...Limited press is a major difference from countries like Brazil, India. Africa is not the only continent with a very young population. 

Trends for cases UK +13%, Russia +10%, Poland +24%, Cambodia +20%, Denmark +17%, 

Some Africa cases-trends Egypt +9%, Nigeria -11%, South Africa -42%  Kenya -30% Deaths Egypt +104%, Nigeria +15%, South Africa -3%, Kenya +35% 

Total of Africa cases -26%, deaths +6% numbers indicate peak of cases may be over, still in peak of deaths...DJ-I think it is very likely Africa had several more variants-but they may have been missed due to very poor testing, sequencing... When you look at South America, Brazil did see P1 and P2, Peru, Colombia (Argentina ?) did have their own variants...

Is Africa doing "that much better" then the rest of the world ? DJ-NO !!! We are just (as always) not looking, "hopefull", "wishfull thinking". A lot of damage is done due to schoold being closed, stopping other diseases being slowed down. We did see Ebola, Plague cases showing up...

The real picture of Africa in this pandemic may be quite depressing-so we look the other way ! Poverty is the outcome of a proces, a choice. Africa is "good for natural resources, cheap labour and dumping garbage"...This world still is a racist place !

On racism; The US putting over 0,5% of its population in prison-during this pandemic-does not help. Worldwide there are 8 million people in prison-over 25% of them in US prisons. Working prisoners may get close to slavery...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/further-communications/913004-reports-of-censorship-during-pandemic?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/further-communications/913004-reports-of-censorship-during-pandemic?view=stream latest; Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the American people have been told to “follow the science.” Yet for a year and a half, they’ve heard contradicting messages from self-appointed prophets of “the science” like Dr. Anthony Fauci and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
We learned that politicians who claimed their decisions were science-driven often ignored scientific findings that didn’t fit certain political narratives. We discovered that scientists are fallible human beings, and some would let personal interests and political views cloud their judgment.
Is science itself one of the victims of the COVID-19 pandemic? 

DJ Science is discussion, learning, being open...If "all scientist have to agree" we get nowhere...We learn by asking questions !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/11916-effects-of-quarantine?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/11916-effects-of-quarantine?view=stream latest; The COVID-19 pandemic began with overwhelming uncertainty for much of the general population. The bustle of early-morning commutes turned to empty streets and closed businesses. The government-imposed lockdowns have led to major lifestyle changes for individuals around the world. With the high risk for disease transmissibility in social settings, regulatory bodies had instructed citizens to stay indoors and practice social distancing. Following a rapid shift to virtual jobs, trips to the workplace had quickly turned into frequent trips to the fridge.
Personally, I found myself unable to keep up with my usual physical activity during the time spent at home. The occasional snack turned to a daily snack break or trip to the fridge. The accessibility and convenience of frequent snacking between meetings was irresistible.
Although lockdown measures are being reduced with rising vaccination rates, "normalcy" has not returned for many. An increase in sedentary lifestyle has led to a number of mental and physiologic morbidities. In particular, with more time spent inside the home, individuals have experienced a rapid decrease in physical activity, coupled with an increase in caloric intake. Taken together, the risk of developing obesity has increased, and this has seen a worsening of both metabolic and mood disorders.

DJ The "old normal" did bring us this pandemic, climate collapse, poverty for many. So that "normal" was not acceptable ! However finding a new balance is difficult. Social, economic, education factors all in play. So "a new balance" has to be defined. There should not be a problem with some e-learning, some working from home. For some groups working from home can mean they can work more, travel less. 

Here in NL investments in roads may see limits because more people, more often, work from home-just going to an office once a week-not every day. It also meant people living further away from a workplace...(because the real workplace is home). Preparing houses for that "new normal" is a major job. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/924443-covid-19-greater-mortality-among-people-with-schizophrenia-remains-a-mystery[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/924443-covid-19-greater-mortality-among-people-with-schizophrenia-remains-a-mystery

Antipsychotics are not responsible for the increased COVID-related death rate among patients with serious mental illness (SMI), new research shows.
The significant increase in COVID-19 mortality that continues to be reported among those with schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder "underscores the importance of protective interventions for this group, including priority vaccination," study investigator Katlyn Nemani, MD, research assistant professor, Department of Psychiatry, New York University (NYU) Grossman School of Medicine, New York City, told Medscape Medical News.
The study was published online September 22 in JAMA Psychiatry.

Antipsychotic treatment was not significantly associated with mortality (odds ratio [OR], 1.00; 95% CI, 0.48 – 2.08; = .99).

"This suggests that antipsychotic medication is unlikely to be responsible for the increased risk we've observed in this population, although this finding needs to be replicated," said Nemani.

Surprise Finding

A diagnosis of a schizophrenia spectrum disorder was associated with an almost threefold increased risk for mortality compared with bipolar disorder (OR, 2.88; 95% CI, 1.36 – 6.11; = .006).

"This was a surprising finding," said Nemani. "A possible explanation is differences in immune function associated with schizophrenia spectrum illness."...

DJ Some mental problems may have genetic links...We could learn more on how these diseases are caused. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924440-united-airlines-vaccination-mandate-temporarily-halted-for-employees-seeking-religious-or-medical-exemptions-had-planned-to-put-religious-objecters-on-unpaid-leave-for-6-years[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924440-united-airlines-vaccination-mandate-temporarily-halted-for-employees-seeking-religious-or-medical-exemptions-had-planned-to-put-religious-objecters-on-unpaid-leave-for-6-years DJ-There can be many reasons why people do not want "a vaccine". Since it is up to the people to decide on that-unless very serious reasons point otherwise-you have to respect that. 

Fear of needles could be one reason-if you take that fear/ those people, serious there may be ways to deal with it. In Israel they did convince some orthodox groups to accept vaccinations. How far to go in "making deals" like if you vaccinate your religious building may stay open...? In healthcare here in NL HCW-ers do not have to inform their employers on medical issues-there are strict privacy rules ! Your medical info is yours ! 

Non-mandatory vaccinations in many countries see over 80 to 90% of 12 y/o+ willing to accept vaccinations ! With some extra's you may even get-in some countries-up to 95% willing to accept vaccines !

Vaccines only offering 80/90% protection against severe disease may be a bigger worry then a small group refusing vaccines !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923534-vaccinating-people-who-have-had-covid-19-why-doesn%E2%80%99t-natural-immunity-count-in-the-us[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/923534-vaccinating-people-who-have-had-covid-19-why-doesn%E2%80%99t-natural-immunity-count-in-the-us latest; Why Testing Your Immunity to COVID-19 is as Important as Vaccination....
Dr. Hooman Noorchashm
Wide AngleBrendon Fallon Aug 19, 2021
Antibody testing is the gold standard for determining immunity, says immunologist and physician Dr. Hooman Norchashm. Yet, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) are actively deterring people from testing their immunity. Why?

Additionally, the Delta variant of COVID-19 is currently being used by the government to explain the high occurrence of breakthrough infections.

Dr. Noorchashm suggests vaccine spoilage could be the answer to both these issues.

“It’s a medicine, just like any other medicine. It’s got a failure rate … and we should accept that.”

“They’re worried that a substantial number of people are not going to find out that the vaccine didn’t work for them.”

DJ Vaccines/vaccination is far from perfect ! I think we could use much more testing in general. How many vaccinated people still get infected without symptoms ? (CDC numbers last year put a/pre symptomatic spread at 59%, vaccines may increase that to 80% ??? ) If you did get vaccinated how good is immunity for how long ? How long does natural immunity protect ? Does natural immunity from early 2020 protect against Delta ? Lots of questions that do not see answers !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/924498-mbio-antibody-dependent-enhancement-of-sars-cov-2-infection-is-mediated-by-the-igg-receptors-fc%CE%B3riia-and-fc%CE%B3riiia-but-does-not-contribute-to-aberrant-cytokine-production-by-macrophages[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/924498-mbio-antibody-dependent-enhancement-of-sars-cov-2-infection-is-mediated-by-the-igg-receptors-fc%CE%B3riia-and-fc%CE%B3riiia-but-does-not-contribute-to-aberrant-cytokine-production-by-macrophages ; The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has raised concerns about the detrimental effects of antibodies.

 Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) of infection is one of the biggest concerns in terms of not only the antibody reaction to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) upon reinfection with the virus but also the reaction to COVID-19 vaccines. 

 In this study, we evaluated ADE of infection by using COVID-19 convalescent-phase plasma and BHK cells expressing human Fcγ receptors (FcγRs). 

We found that FcγRIIA and FcγRIIIA mediated modest ADE of infection against SARS-CoV-2. Although ADE of infection was observed in monocyte-derived macrophages infected with SARS-CoV-2, including its variants, proinflammatory cytokine/chemokine expression was not upregulated in macrophages. SARS-CoV-2 infection thus produces antibodies that elicit ADE of infection, but these antibodies do not contribute to excess cytokine production by macrophages.

 IMPORTANCE Viruses infect cells mainly via specific receptors at the cell surface. Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) of infection is an alternative mechanism of infection for viruses to infect immune cells that is mediated by antibodies and IgG receptors (FcγRs). Because ADE of infection contributes to the pathogenesis of some viruses, such as dengue virus and feline coronavirus, it is important to evaluate the precise mechanism of ADE and its contribution to the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2.

DJ SARS-2 virusses do not use the immunesystem as an alternative way to spread infection.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/924475-r-i-med-j-2013-multiorgan-infarctions-in-a-young-adult-with-covid-19-autopsy-findings[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/924475-r-i-med-j-2013-multiorgan-infarctions-in-a-young-adult-with-covid-19-autopsy-findings ; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may cause a hypercoagulability state and thrombotic complications. Multiorgan infarctions in young patients are very rare. Here we report a 35-year-old male patient with COVID-19 complicated by multiorgan infarctions. 

The patient had a past medical history of uncontrolled insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus and was admitted to the intensive care unit with progressive hypoxia in the setting of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The patient received prophylactic anticoagulant during the entire hospital course. During the hospitalization, the patient developed hypoxic respiratory arrest, diffuse anoxic brain injury and brain herniation. 

Postmortem examination demonstrated multiple infarctions and thromboses involving the heart, bilateral lungs, kidneys, and spleen. In conclusion, multiple organ infarctions may occur in young patients with COVID-19 despite prophylactic anticoagulation therapy.

DJ Is there a link with MIS/Multi Inflamatory Syndrome (either Children or Adults) ? Only timing was different ? MIS-C/A is often seen as a delayed overeaction of the immunesystem. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/surveillance-and-epidemic-control/924464-vet-world-novel-reassortant-of-h9n2-avian-influenza-viruses-isolated-from-chickens-and-quails-in-egypt[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/surveillance-and-epidemic-control/924464-vet-world-novel-reassortant-of-h9n2-avian-influenza-viruses-isolated-from-chickens-and-quails-in-egypt ; A novel reassortant virus was identified from a commercial chicken flock (A/chicken/Egypt/374V/2016) and quails from a live bird market (A/quail/Egypt/1253V/2016). 

The reassortant viruses acquired four genome segments from the classic Egyptian H9N2 viruses (HA, NA, NP, and M) and four segments from Eurasian AIVs (PB2, PB1, PA, and NS). 

Many genetic changes have been demonstrated in HA and NA genes. The isolated novel reassortant H9N2 virus from quails showed amino acid mutations in the antigenic sites on the globular head of the mature HA monomer matched with the parent Egyptian H9N2 virus.


Conclusion: This work described the genetic characterization of a novel reassortment of the H9N2 virus in Egypt. The emergence of new reassorted AIV viruses and genome variability raises the concern of an influenza pandemic with zoonotic potentials.

DJ Good they detected it, bad the reassortment happened. See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/surveillance-and-epidemic-control/924455-viruses-the-pathobiology-of-h7n3-low-and-high-pathogenicity-avian-influenza-viruses-from-the-united-states-outbreak-in-2020-differs-between-turkeys-and-chickens[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/surveillance-and-epidemic-control/924455-viruses-the-pathobiology-of-h7n3-low-and-high-pathogenicity-avian-influenza-viruses-from-the-united-states-outbreak-in-2020-differs-between-turkeys-and-chickens ; An outbreak caused by H7N3 low pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) occurred in commercial turkey farms in the states of North Carolina (NC) and South Carolina (SC), United States in March of 2020. Subsequently, H7N3 high pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) was detected on a turkey farm in SC. The infectivity, transmissibility, and pathogenicity of the H7N3 HPAIV and two LPAIV isolates, including one with a deletion in the neuraminidase (NA) protein stalk, were studied in turkeys and chickens.

 High infectivity [<2 log10 50% bird infectious dose (BID50)] and transmission to birds exposed by direct contact were observed with the HPAIV in turkeys. In contrast, the HPAIV dose to infect chickens was higher than for turkeys (3.7 log10 BID50), and no transmission was observed. Similarly, higher infectivity (<2-2.5 log10 BID50) and transmissibility were observed with the H7N3 LPAIVs in turkeys compared to chickens, which required higher virus doses to become infected (5.4-5.7 log10 BID50). The LPAIV with the NA stalk deletion was more infectious in turkeys but did not have enhanced infectivity in chickens. These results show clear differences in the pathobiology of AIVs in turkeys and chickens and corroborate the high susceptibility of turkeys to both LPAIV and HPAIV infections.

DJ A virus may be a much bigger danger for one species, very limited risk for other-related-species. Covid-19 may spread to some non-human hosts that hardly will show symptoms/spread...other non-human hosts may see much more risks. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/924515-microorganisms-covid-19-infection-in-children-infants-and-pregnant-subjects-an-overview-of-recent-insights-and-therapies[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/924515-microorganisms-covid-19-infection-in-children-infants-and-pregnant-subjects-an-overview-of-recent-insights-and-therapies ; Background: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has involved a severe increase of cases worldwide in a wide range of populations. The aim of the present investigation was to evaluate recent insights about COVID-19 infection in children, infants and pregnant subjects.
Methods: a literature overview was performed including clinical trials, in vitro studies, reviews and published guidelines regarding the present paper topic. A descriptive synthesis was performed to evaluate recent insights and the effectiveness of therapies for SARS-CoV-2 infection in children, infants and pregnant subjects.
Results: Insufficient data are available regarding the relationship between COVID-19 and the clinical risk of spontaneous abortion and premature foetus death. A decrease in the incidence of COVID-19 could be correlated to a minor expression of ACE2 in childrens' lungs. At present, a modulation of the dose-effect posology for children and infants is necessary.
Conclusions: Pregnant vertical transmission has been hypothesised for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Vaccines are necessary to achieve mass immunity for children and also pregnant subjects.

DJ So still a lot of questions !

-Dr.John Campbellstill no new video ! No music but [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URwmZq70_DU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URwmZq70_DU

WWII ARMY GROUND FORCES TRAINING FILM " HOW TO GET KILLED IN ONE EASY LESSON " 1943

DJ Yes this pandemic is bad ! Still recent history did see worse ! We have to try and keep some perspective...(On the short movie; Japanese soldiers rather died then surrendered...in that way the movie is unrealistic.)



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https://www.atomicheritage.org/history/japanese-mass-suicides


The War of the Pacific against Imperial Japan was marked by episodes of mass suicides by Japanese soldiers and civilians, notably in Saipan and Okinawa. These deaths illustrated Japan’s will to fight to the death to defend their mainland rather than surrender unconditionally. They may also have played a role in the US military’s decision to drop the atomic bombs on Japan.

 

“They will not surrender”

In July 1944, American troops in Saipan bore witness to a “banzai” charge, where nearly 4,000 Japanese soldiers charged American troops and fought to their death. They were following the last orders of their commander, Lieutenant General Yoshisugu Saito, who had called for this all-out surprise attack in the honor of the Emperor before committing ritual suicide. American troops also witnessed a different atrocity as they saw women grabbing children and jumping from cliffs rather than submitting to capture.

As US forces pushed forward, island by island, troops continued to bear witness to Japanese soldiers and civilians taking their own lives. Okinawa was a particularly hellish scene as nearly one-third of the island population died. Among these were Koreans who had been forcibly migrated from annexed Korea to Japanese islands to be press-ganged as laborers and comfort women. While the Japanese government states there was “military involvement” in these suicides, survivors attest to a compulsory mass suicide, or shudan jiketsu.

Ota Masahide, a survivor and Okinawa historian, wrote in an article for the Asia-Pacific Journal in 2014 that the military distributed hand-grenades to the civilian population as the means to commit suicide with loved ones. Those that survived the grenades “worried” about being alive and found other ways to kill themselves with other weapons such as scythes, razor blades, ropes, rocks, and sticks. Military propaganda had warned the civilian population that if they were captured, the Americans would torture, rape, and murder them. 

“As the mayhem unfolded, they found all sorts of ways to kill…Men bashed their wives and parents bashed their children, young people killed the elderly and the strong killed the weak,” Masahide said. “What they felt in common was the belief that they were doing this out of love and compassion.”

Another survivor, Kinjo Shigeaki, who took 20 years to speak about his experience, identified three factors that created this mentality: “The ideology of obedience to the Emperor, the presence of the Imperial Japanese Army, and being on an island…with no way to escape.”

“Back in those days of 100 million Japanese citizens supposedly being prepared to fight to the very last man, everybody was prepared for death,” Shigeaki said. “The doctrine of total obedience to the Emperor emphasized death and made light of life. The willingness to die for the Emperor on a faraway island resulted in a whole new sense of identity.”

 

Operation Ketsu-Go

In the meantime, “the Emperor on a faraway island” continued to call for suicidal defensive battle strategies. He hoped that the atrocities would persuade America to negotiate a compromise rather than an unconditional surrender, according to historian John W. Dower. Emperor Hirohito actively chose an “all-out defense of Okinawa” to showcase Japan’s willingness to fight to the end, ignoring advice to end the war.

As stories of Saipan and Okinawa reached the American public, the lasting effect was indeed a deep disturbance over the Japanese mindset as the public heard stories of kamikaze pilots plummeting to their deaths, and of mass suicides committed by members of the military and civilians.

“In ’45, we knew about Guadalcanal, we knew about Iwo Jima, we knew about Okinawa,” said Richard Yalman in an interview with the Atomic Heritage on 2015. “People are going to do kamikaze, every one of them is going to be a kamikaze. We knew that, and it would be just terrible.” 


American military leadership was affected by the “ferocity of Japan’s no-surrender policy,” according to Dower. A Joint Chiefs of Staff planning document, dated August 30, 1944, coined the “Saipan ratio” and stated that it would take “approximately 1 American killed and several wounded to exterminate 7 Japanese soldiers.” According to the Saipan ratio, an invasion of the main island of Kyushu would be extremely costly in terms of American lives. 

Then, on April 8, 1945, Japan launched Operation Ketsu-go. It was to be the final defense strategy in case of an American invasion of Kyushu and would focus on “inflicting tremendous casualties on US forces to undermine the American will to fight for unconditional surrender,” according to a publication by the Marine Corps Intelligence Activity (MCIA).

The mainland defense strategy called for an increase in the use of defensive suicide tactics. The remaining aircrafts were to be converted into kamikaze planes that would be released in “waves of 300-400, at the rate of one wave per hour against the invasion fleet,” according to the MCIA. The naval defense would include manned suicide torpedoes, suicide attack boats, and suicide divers.

Defense preparations would include mobilizing civilians, as the plan ordered all males 15 – 60 years old and all females 17 – 40 years old to be trained with hand grenades, swords, sickles, knives, fire hooks, and bamboo spears in preparation of joining the regular forces during night infiltration patrols.

Along with the military plans, Japanese leadership addressed the people directly and asked for the people to continue to fight. For example, in a special session of the Imperial Diet on June 9, 1945 Premier Kantaro Suzukiexalted the efforts at Okinawa and defended Japan’s “Holy War.”

“If the whole people will march forward with death-defying determination,” Suzuki said, “devoting their entire efforts to their own duties and to refreshing their fighting spirit, I believe that we will be able to overcome all difficulties.”

The controlled press continued the call to “die gloriously” in defense of the nation and began a daily “die for the emperor” campaign, states historian Herbert P. Bix. Or more sharply put, in the words of Dower, there was “increasingly hysterical rhetoric exhorting the ‘hundred million’ to die gloriously in defense of the nation and its emperor-centered ‘national polity.’”

 

The Emperor and the Imperial Way

Drawing upon the decades-old doctrine of the ineffable Imperial Way, the call to “die for the emperor” was evidently an effective tool in war propaganda. The myth of the Emperor and the Imperial Way had been carefully constructed, both from the feudalistic history of Japan and from the active policies of the royal family.

Growing up, Emperor Hirohito’s education propagated the tradition of the constructed emperor identity. He was taught “the Confucian model of the virtuous, peace-loving ruler and the Japanese bushido model of the ideal warrior,” explains Bix, who wrote the Pulitzer Prize-winning biography of Hirohito called Hirohito and the Making of Modern Japan. He also learned of the extent of the emperor’s power. For example, no laws or imperial ordinance could be made unless the emperor gave his assent first.

The emperor identity was also constructed through the media. Censorship laws in 1893, 1898, and 1900 prohibited critical writings on the emperor and strictly governed all publications. In this way, the royal family controlled the society’s perception of the Emperor as a god.


For example, the Commentaries on the Constitution of 1889 said, “The Emperor is Heaven descended, divine and sacred… He must be reverenced and is inviolable… the law has no power to hold him accountable.”

Along with this process, Japanese people constructed a new national identity called shinmin or “loyal subjects” as Japan began to grow in political, economic and military power. From a young age, Japanese children were taught that they were the subjects of the emperor and had to obey him just as they obeyed their parents, notes Bix.

In the 1890 Imperial Rescript on Education, shinmin translated as “loyal officials directly sub-ordinated to the emperor” and “people who obediently comply with their orders.” The Rescript also listed Confucian virtues and stated, “Should emergency arise, offer yourselves courageously to the State; and thus guard and maintain the prosperity of Our Imperial Throne coeval with heaven and earth.”

This was the ideology that Emperor Hirohito called upon: Not a new edict to fight to the death for Japan and the Emperor, but an invocation to the culture of the emperor, which had been instilled in the Japanese people.

This ideology may not fully provide an explanation to why thousands committed suicide in the name of the Emperor. In Okinawa, historians and survivors state it was ordered by the military. For the military officers, they may have been following the bushido warrior code, which says that one must die rather than surrender. Dower explains foreigners often accept the mythology that the Japanese unanimously embraced death out of devotion to the Emperor and the Imperial Way.

Historian Nancy Bartlit said in an interview with the Atomic Heritage Foundation in 2013, “This is so complicated, but it is the opposite of what we think of. We try to preserve a life. We try to save life. We in the West would give our life for our buddy. We will give our life for our country. What is different from the kamikaze who will give his life for the Emperor? There are differences, but I raise that for the student to examine and look at the different values.”

Students and historians will undoubtedly continue to examine and debate the Japanese mass suicides.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 29 2021 at 4:47pm

Funny in my little chat on with KM on another post I cited that ,MS looks to be caused by having a childhood illness involving high temperature.....

I had chicken pox when I was 11yrs,then when I was 55 I came down with shingles.....

Just shows how long something can remain dormant on your body.


I recommend getting a jab for chicken pox ,don't get shingles.......is very very painful and can reoccur....

Take care all 😷😉💉

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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HoneyBee08-thanks for your good information. Individual health background has to be a major factor in this pandemic as well. There are statistics on diabetes, obesity, mental problems. Linking those statistics to CoViD-19 is not always simple. 

We did have a major Q-fever outbreak in the south of NL over 10 years ago. It first looked like chronic Q-fever patients did see more, more severe CoViD...Now the idea is the Q-fever factor may have been biased, getting overrepresented...So chronic Q-fever does NOT give more chance for (severe) CoViD...[url]https://www.radboudumc.nl/en/news-items/2021/first-dutch-professor-of-infectious-disease-outbreaks[/url] or https://www.radboudumc.nl/en/news-items/2021/first-dutch-professor-of-infectious-disease-outbreaks

"We had a very large outbreak in the Netherlands where the epicenter was close to Nijmegen, in Herpen. So we saw a lot of patients. Logical clinical research questions followed: how do you recognize the infection, which patients get complications, how do you treat the patients and what are the possible long-term consequences for patients?"

"We also do immunological research: why become some people very sick, and others not? Some Q fever patients get chronic Q fever, where the bacteria just won't leave the body, and some get Q fever fatigue syndrome. The infection is gone, but people continue to have symptoms, such as fatigue and difficulty concentrating, for a long time. We are conducting research into the possible cause of these long-term symptoms, and looking for an effective treatment."

DJ There are lots of similarities between Q-fever and CoViD-19. Proberbly suggesting a lot of the disease is related to (over)reaction of the immune system. What may help in chronic Q-fever (wich has a bacterial infection at the start) and "long-CoViD" could therefore be a same sort of treatment, trying to get the immunesystem back in the rails...

[url]https://www.merck.com/news/merck-and-ridgeback-biotherapeutics-announce-initiation-of-pivotal-phase-3-move-ahead-study-evaluating-molnupiravir-for-post-exposure-prophylaxis-of-covid-19-infection/[/url] or https://www.merck.com/news/merck-and-ridgeback-biotherapeutics-announce-initiation-of-pivotal-phase-3-move-ahead-study-evaluating-molnupiravir-for-post-exposure-prophylaxis-of-covid-19-infection/Molnupiravir (MK-4482/EIDD-2801) is an investigational, orally administered form of a potent ribonucleoside analog that inhibits the replication of multiple RNA viruses including SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19. Molnupiravir has been shown to be active in several preclinical models of SARS-CoV-2, including for prophylaxis, treatment, and prevention of transmission, as well as SARS-CoV-1 and MERS. Molnupiravir was invented at Drug Innovations at Emory (DRIVE), LLC, a not-for-profit biotechnology company wholly owned by Emory University.

"Limited news" ; "Molnupiravir" will be one of many drugs now in development. Another factor has to be the costs...expensive (for profit) pharma-products are a major problem when you are dealing with a pandemic. There seems to be no political will to "nationalize" vaccine etc. production in western countries. The political degeneration seems to think pandemic-profits are okay....

Here in Europe we had elections a.o. in Germany. In Berlin there is now a plan to "nationalize" housing to keep housing affordable...in Graz-Austria communists won the election...(In Russia the communist party is second, Putins party is more nationalistic with links to the orthodox church...quite conservative...).

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; New reported cases 488,480, new reported deaths 8,807...trends cases -10%, deaths -7% still looking at 2020 lows a year ago 322,166 new cases were reported-a relative high-most of the summer months did see cases below 300,000 per day ! That day 5,659 deaths were reported...most days in those summer months did see below 6,000 deaths per day. Proberbly with more testing/reporting and without any vaccines !

Some countries (with reasonable testing and reporting-DRC may be doing its very best but increase of 183% in cases from 141 to 399 this week-on a population of almost 93 million indicates very limited testing -3,296 per million-in the Democratic Republic of Congo);

-Laos +73% for cases, Angola +61%, Romania +58%, Chile +46%, South Korea +37%, Ukraine +33%, Belize +33%, Poland +28%, Denmark +27%, Cambodia +25%, Bulgaria +20%, Venezuela +20%, Finland +19%, Uganda +16%, Papua New Guinea +13%, UK +12%, Russia +11%, Mexico +6%, Egypt +6%, Australia (!!!) +4%, Taiwan +2%, Canada +1%, Iceland +1%-I also mention Norway-reopening with cases -18%, Portugal cases -20%, one of the highest level of vaccinations-also reopening.

There are 73 countries reporting an increase of cases. Quite often it may be related with Delta(+) variants increasing-often after lifting of restrictions. However some of the increases may be related to new variants (or new Delta+ variants). 

DJ-Again I would love to believe we are moving out of this pandemic. Israel -cases -41% deaths 140 last and this week=still high-Cuba cases -17%, deaths -12% (last week 455, this week 400 on a population of 11,3 million=high) show vaccines work. Israel going full scale on booster vaccines, Cuba vaccinations in 2 y/o+ very young children....schools still closed. 

The statistics on vaccinations are "mixed up" often it is not clear if they are mentioning "adults only" (18 y/o+) or all of the population...(so new borns to 120 y/o+). A lot of countries reporting increases have low vaccinations...Denmark, Finland have high vaccinations but opening of schoolyear/lifting (to much ?) restrictions is pushing up statistics there...

A "case" is still someone testing positive for a CoronaViral Infection...even without symptoms. If you want to have working statistics redefining "a case" may destroy that tool. Most countries also have statistics on hospital cases-instead of "redefinition" one could choose to use hospital cases as a criteria. 

Still-even with high global number of cases-vaccination will result in even higher asymptomatic cases that do not see testing...We most likely will be drifting into a next wave due to a lack of ad random testing in the vaccinated without symptoms...

Coronavirusses are very stubborn, in animals a crisis is "solved" most by killing all the animals in an area..."We" keep underestimating this virus for political/economic reasons. Science is ignored ! Yes, scientists may not agree on all aspects, it is not their job to do so ! Science NEEDS discussion, questions-that is how we learn !

Politics should learn from science-try to get some main points-but keeps denying there is a major crisis-just like in the climate collapse...We have "good weather leaders" totally lossed in a storm...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/world-food-supply-problem-areas-cultivation-alternatives-latest-research/924605-losing-the-%E2%80%98arms-race%E2%80%99-multiresistant-salmon-lice-are-dispersed-throughout-the-north-atlantic-ocean[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/world-food-supply-problem-areas-cultivation-alternatives-latest-research/924605-losing-the-%E2%80%98arms-race%E2%80%99-multiresistant-salmon-lice-are-dispersed-throughout-the-north-atlantic-ocean ; Nothing lasts forever, including the effect of chemicals aimed to control pests in food production. As old pesticides have been compromised by emerging resistance, new ones have been introduced and turned the odds back in our favour. With time, however, some pests have developed multi-pesticide resistance, challenging our ability to control them.

DJ If you look at a timescale of the last 500 years progres in science has been explosive-still it will not solve all problems. We are "time-travellers", passengers on planet Earth only "on board" for a short while..guests-that need to learn how to behave !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924564-russia-reports-record-daily-covid-deaths[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924564-russia-reports-record-daily-covid-deaths ; Russia has recorded its highest single-day coronavirus death toll during a surge in infections fuelled by the highly infectious Delta variant and a stuttering mass vaccination drive.

On Tuesday, authorities reported 852 deaths in the preceding 24 hours. The previous record figure for a single day was 828 deaths, registered on September 24.

Overall, Russia has recorded more than 205,000 COVID-19 deaths since the pandemic began, according to official figures.

The tally represents the highest death toll in Europe and fifth-highest globally.

There are now mounting concerns a fourth wave of infections is under way, weeks after millions of Russian students returned to schools and colleges.

-

Despite the rising caseload, few nationwide public restrictions have been put in place. Russia had one, six-week lockdown early this year...

-

It is disconcerting that the death toll in Russia has remained essentially flat at around 800/day since July. Afaik, that is unlike any other country, where the deaths have risen and fallen in waves.

DJ Low vaccinations, very limited restrictions=high number of cases/deaths = increased risks of new variants. Spread to (fur)animals in Russia is quite large...(Badger did link some of the mutations in variants to spread of CoViD in animals...very limited links/studies...economy first...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream one of the latest;  just see the mortality estimates for India.
4 Million deaths , 0.28% of its population.
median age=28y , 6%>65 , 3.4%>70
(USA:median==38.3,15.4%>=65,9.7%>=70)

DJ Are these numbers correct ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924599-state-of-crisis-canadian-medical-association-calls-for-lockdowns-in-alberta-and-saskatchewan[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924599-state-of-crisis-canadian-medical-association-calls-for-lockdowns-in-alberta-and-saskatchewan ; The Canadian Medical Association is calling for lockdowns in Alberta and Saskatchewan to protect their "crumbling" health-care systems.

Both western provinces are setting hospitalization records for COVID-19, with intensive care capacity running slim.

Dr. Katharine Smart, president of the national association, is urging the federal and provincial governments to take immediate action.

The association is calling for short, controlled lockdowns, often called "firebreakers" or "circuit-breakers," which would close schools and non-essential businesses...

DJ Hospitalcare capacity may become a growing critical factor. A lot of HCW-ers are exhausted, went for other jobs with less risk, better hours...Putting economy first did put a long term extreme burden on healthcare. "Politics" is destroying public healthcare...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924593-cidrap-global-covid-19-patterns-show-more-signs-of-decline[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924593-cidrap-global-covid-19-patterns-show-more-signs-of-declineIn a promising development, cases dropped across all WHO regions, with deaths falling in all parts of the world except for Africa, she said. However, Van Kerkhove said a big concern is that intense hot spots remain across all of the world's regions. "Delta circulates efficiently amongst unvaccinated populations where public health measures are not in place."

According to the WHO update, the steepest drops occurred in the Middle East, followed by the Western Pacific and the Americas. Few countries expect for Singapore and Laos reported sharp increases, though some European countries—such as the Russia, Turkey, and the United Kingdom—reported modest rises.

DJ When you look at numbers from september 2020 both cases and deaths in 2021-with massive vaccinations-are a lot higher ! From the same link; 

More global headlines

  • Africa will fall short of the WHO target of vaccinating 40% of country populations by the end of the year, as the region faces a 500 million-dose shortage, the WHO's African regional office said yesterday in its weekly outbreaks and health emergencies report. The shortage is related to a projected cutback in COVAX doses for the rest of the year. Currently, about 4.02% of the population is fully vaccinated, according to Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC).

  • The WHO's Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) said today that it has entered an agreement with Sinovac and is in advanced talks with other companies to buy additional COVID-19 vaccine, with the goal of bolstering supplies though bilateral deals and doses from COVAX. Ten countries in the region have vaccinated 70% of their populations, but 10 countries and territories reaching only 20%, with only 1% protected in Haiti so far.

  • New Zealand reported a jump in cases today, with 45 new infections reported, following a string of single-digit daily case totals, according to Reuters. All occurred in Auckland, and most were linked to known clusters. Officials said they expect occasional upticks in cases.

  • Though many countries are rethinking the goal of returning to zero COVID-19 cases, especially with the highly transmissible Delta variant, China is doubling down on keeping cases as low and possible and opened a 5,000-room quarantine center in Guangdong province for foreign travelers, according to CNN. Other Chinese business hubs are building or planning to build similar facilities.

  • The global total today topped 233 million, rising to 233,088,494 cases, along with 4,770,309 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins online dashboard.

DJ In my-non expert, non-neutral, non-objective opinion the only realistic strategy is Zero-Covid...Only a few counties (China, Vietnam a.o.) are going for that goal.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/924613-an-observational-study-of-breakthrough-sars-cov-2-delta-variant-infections-among-vaccinated-healthcare-workers-in-vietnam[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/924613-an-observational-study-of-breakthrough-sars-cov-2-delta-variant-infections-among-vaccinated-healthcare-workers-in-vietnam ; Between 11th–25th June 2021 (7-8 weeks after the second dose), 69 staff tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. 62 participated in the study. 

Most were asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and all recovered. Twenty-two complete-genome sequences were obtained; all were Delta variant and were phylogenetically distinct from contemporary viruses obtained from the community or from hospital patients admitted prior to the outbreak. Viral loads inferred from Ct values were 251 times higher than in cases infected with the original strain in March/April 2020. 

Median time from diagnosis to negative PCR was 21 days (range 8–33). 

Neutralizing antibodies (expressed as percentage of inhibition) measured after the second vaccine dose, or at diagnosis, were lower in cases than in uninfected, fully vaccinated controls (median (IQR): 69.4 (50.7-89.1) vs. 91.3 (79.6-94.9), p=0.005 and 59.4 (32.5-73.1) vs. 91.1 (77.3-94.2), p=0.002). 

There was no correlation between vaccine-induced neutralizing antibody levels and peak viral loads or the development of symptoms.
Interpretation

Breakthrough Delta variant infections following Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccination may cause asymptomatic or mild disease, but are associated with high viral loads, prolonged PCR positivity and low levels of vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies. Epidemiological and sequence data suggested ongoing transmission had occurred between fully vaccinated individuals.

DJ Do we see a trend of higher viral load in vaccinated (AZ-O) and genetic differences catching Delta ? In that case this news should be alarming ! The (AZ-O) vaccine does not stop the spread enough in those vaccinated-resulting in a worse Delta-variant spreading...

We do need to increase ad random testing of vaccinated people without symptoms to detect/monitor spread of these new Delta "variations"!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924612-new-rule-israelis-who-recovered-from-covid-must-get-single-jab-for-green-pass[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924612-new-rule-israelis-who-recovered-from-covid-must-get-single-jab-for-green-passThe Health Ministry announced on Sunday that from next week recovered COVID-19 patients will be required to get a single coronavirus vaccine shot in order to be eligible to receive a Green Pass. Under the current Green Pass rules, entry to certain businesses and events is limited to those with proof of vaccination, recovery from COVID-19, or a negative test result. The new rule is set to take effect October 3....

DJ [url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDingthere’s debate whether the higher reinfection breakthrough rate it’s because natural immunity wanes & a lot of time has passed since many infected last year. Possibly—but isn’t that a strong argument to get a vaccine add-on and not play it risky with just natural immunity?

There is a lot of discussion on natural immunity. My (very limited) impression is that it could offer protection on the short term-often. On the longer term one has to have questions...People that once had SARS-1, MERS seem to be protected against SARS-2 even after years...but in a.o. Manaus-Brazil supposed massive natural protection was not enough to stop a second wave several months later...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/supply-chain-issues/924583-the-workers-who-keep-global-supply-chains-moving-are-warning-of-a-system-collapse[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/supply-chain-issues/924583-the-workers-who-keep-global-supply-chains-moving-are-warning-of-a-system-collapse ; Seafarers, truck drivers and airline workers have endured quarantines, travel restrictions and complex Covid-19 vaccination and testing requirements to keep stretched supply chains moving during the pandemic.

But many are now reaching their breaking point, posing yet another threat to the badly tangled network of ports, container vessels and trucking companies that moves goods around the world.

In an open letter Wednesday to heads of state attending the United Nations General Assembly, the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) and other industry groups warned of a "global transport system collapse" if governments do not restore freedom of movement to transport workers and give them priority to receive vaccines recognized by the World Health Organization.

-

One world vaccine government.

Inconsistent requirements mean that some seafarers have been vaccinated multiple times because some countries have approved only certain vaccines, according to Platten.

He knows of at least one seafarer who has received six vaccine doses, or three two-dose regimens. "It's an absolute nightmare. I can't understand why we don't have some sort of global standard,"

DJ It would be more then welcome if some-basic most used vaccines-would give entry for transport workers worldwide...Why we still do not have such a system is beyond me...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/924608-safety-signals-for-covid-vaccines-are-loud-and-clear-why-is-nobody-listening[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/924608-safety-signals-for-covid-vaccines-are-loud-and-clear-why-is-nobody-listening ; As of early September, there have been 14,506 deaths reported to VAERS for COVID-19 vaccines, compared to 8,673 for the preceding 30 years for all other vaccines. That is already more than 50 times the annual average — and we still have four months left to go until the end of the year.

It is hard to imagine how anyone can look at these numbers and not be at least a little bit concerned. Yet many people are dismissive, saying the unprecedented number of reports is due to the unprecedented number of vaccinations being administered.

I crunched the numbers, and even after taking into account the total number of vaccinations, the number of reports for COVID vaccines still towers over previous years.

-

the number of deaths reported per million vaccine doses from 2010-2020 and for COVID-19 vaccines. That’s nearly 40 deaths reported per million COVID vaccines versus an average of 1.6 for all other vaccines from the previous 10 years.

-

The first thing to notice is that for every type of adverse event for every age group, there were more reports per million doses of COVID-19 vaccines than for flu vaccines. If you look at the bottom row for all age groups (12 and older), you see that for every million vaccine doses administered, there were 19 times more reports to VAERS for COVID-19 vaccines than for flu vaccines, 28 times more serious events, 91 times more deaths, 3 times more reports of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), 276 times more reports of coagulopathy; 126 times as many reports of myocardial infarction; and 136 times more reports of myopericarditis.

Also notable is the variation across age groups. For example, death and coagulopathy were more preponderant for older age groups, whereas GBS and myopericarditis were more frequent for younger age groups.

The ratios for myopericarditis put the full significance of these results into perspective, since it is an officially recognized side effect of COVID-19 vaccines, especially among men under age 50. 

-

While the COVID-to-flu ratio for myopericarditis among 12- to 17-year-olds in Table 1 is in a league of its own at 1251-to-1, the ratio for the 18- to 49-year-olds is 81-to-1, which is well within the range of many of the other ratios in the table — and even smaller than many of them.

Because the CDC has acknowledged that mRNA COVID-19 vaccines can cause myocarditis in this age group, a reporting ratio of at least 81 is like an alarm bell going off to warn us of a potential safety problem. And the much larger ratios for coagulopathy and myocardial infarctions are like a 4-alarm fire.

So why does the CDC seem to be unconcerned about these safety signals? Is it possible they haven’t picked up on them?

-

Postscript: Since completing this article, I and others submitted comments to the meeting of FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBPAC) on Sept. 17, which voted 16 to 2 to not approve a booster dose for people under 65 years old, citing a lack of sufficient safety and efficacy data. However the FDA overruled its advisory committee, as did the CDC after its vaccine safety committee recommended against authorizing a third Pfizer dose for anyone other than people 65 and older, long-term care facility residents and certain people with underlying conditions.

DJ In a crisis you may take more risks. But both Vietnam HCW-ers still getting Delta after AZ-O vaccines, and the above story puts major questionmarks on the vaccine-strategy. When you also look at the present-still high-numbers (cases, hospitalcases, deaths) compared to pre-vaccination statistics we HAVE to review vaccination strategy !!!

Most likely some groups do see more risks for complcations after vaccinations !!!

The least one should expect is being honest with the risks...but questions keep being "bulldozered over"...Bad policies giving fuel to questions/hesitancy ! The above story seems to come from; The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Children's Health Defense.
Republishing Guidelines

© 9/29/21 Children’s Health Defense, Inc. This work is reproduced and distributed with the permission of Children’s Health Defense, Inc. Want to learn more from Children’s Health Defense? Sign up for free news and updates from Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and the Children’s Health Defense. Your donation will help to support us in our efforts.

DJ Some of the oppositiongroups seem to be non-science, denialism...also not helping !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924588-want-to-know-about-vaccine-rollouts-in-africa-click-on-a-country-here-and-find-out[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924588-want-to-know-about-vaccine-rollouts-in-africa-click-on-a-country-here-and-find-out ; There has been a lot of focus on COVID-19 vaccine inequalities between high-income and low- and middle-income countries. For instance, it is estimated that up to 70% of all vaccines to be produced in 2021 were pre-booked by a handful of countries.

This has caused severe bottlenecks in vaccine supply to low- and middle-income countries, leading to huge differences in vaccination rates. On average, out of 100 people in a high-income country, 61 have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. In the 29 low-income countries, only 3 out of 100 people have received one dose of the vaccine. ...

Vaccines & Vaccinations in Africa

Select a country from the list below to see details
...

https://theconversation.com/want-to-...source=twitter

DJ If most of severe/deathly cases-also in a lot of poor countries-are in older age groups, people with certain health conditions it may be wise to see wich groups in countries we keep poor may benefit most from vaccines. Often testing is also hardly there...no sequencing...we need to improve that as well ! 

Could we not get a realistic global vaccination plan-including risk factors for vaccinations-to increase vaccine production and get vaccines there where they can help to control the crisis ? 

If we are going for "booster vaccines" to get out of this pandemic we may need new, better boosters...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/924527-ebiomedicine-the-combined-treatment-of-molnupiravir-and-favipiravir-results-in-a-potentiation-of-antiviral-efficacy-in-a-sars-cov-2-hamster-infection-model[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/924527-ebiomedicine-the-combined-treatment-of-molnupiravir-and-favipiravir-results-in-a-potentiation-of-antiviral-efficacy-in-a-sars-cov-2-hamster-infection-model ; Findings: When animals were treated with a combination of suboptimal doses of Molnupiravir and Favipiravir at the time of infection, a marked combined potency at endpoint is observed. 

Infectious virus titers in the lungs of animals treated with the combination are reduced by ∼5 log10 and infectious virus are no longer detected in the lungs of >60% of treated animals. 

When start of treatment was delayed with one day a reduction of titers in the lungs of 2.4 log10 was achieved. 

Moreover, treatment of infected animals nearly completely prevented transmission to co-housed untreated sentinels. 

Both drugs result in an increased mutation frequency of the remaining viral RNA recovered from the lungs of treated animals. 

In the combo-treated hamsters, an increased frequency of C-to-T mutations in the viral RNA is observed as compared to the single treatment groups which may explain the pronounced antiviral potency of the combination.


Interpretation: Our findings may lay the basis for the design of clinical studies to test the efficacy of the combination of Molnupiravir/Favipiravir in the treatment of COVID-19.

DJ Merck-Molupiravir also mentioned on top of todays scenario's...Maybe a next step in dealing with this ongoing pandemic may not be in (more/booster) vaccines but better treatment ? 

-No new video from Dr.John Campbell...(I hope he is well !) ZOE [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIrIqH62FYk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIrIqH62FYk on UK numbers; 

UK cases up, hospital cases going down...

UK R0 now at 1.1

25% of positive testing cases in vaccinated (DJ-most vaccinated that do get infected do not get symptoms, or only mild ones...so do not get tested...)

Most new cases are 0-19 y/o due to school reopenings, other age groups under 50 also going up...Part of them will be the parents of those children. A repeat of last year...

With universities restarting we may see an increase in 18-21 y/o age groups

If you do get cold-like symptoms get tested !

DJ-Weatherwise some storms may be on their way to the UK/Ireland...Autumn/fall has started ! Also people going to work with (often overcrowded) public transport will not help...

A legal right to work/study from home with conservative pseudo liberals does not mix...(BoJo "piling up bodies"...)

-Conclusions; DJ If you live in a country/area where cases now are limited; enjoy the moment ! Due to a-proberbly global-lack of testing and sequencing in vaccinated we may soon seen cases going up again...

The southern part of the globe is moving into spring, towards summer...this will decrease spread somewhat-but new variants may undo that effect high speed. "Delta" did allready show that ! "Warm weather countries" Brazil, India, Pakistan, Iran, Egypt, Thailand all indicate "summer" does not stop this pandemic !

The northern part of the globe may be moving into winter-weather (with some parts of the US still seeing very high temperatures for now-some of those area's could be in winter next week...).

Yesterday I did put a link to an instruction film from 1943 telling US military what NOT to do...We do not pick the time we live in...I am very glad I did not have to see the horrors of a major war in my country...I was very lucky so far !

This pandemic is NOT over ! The duration in itself is a burden for all of us ! Some of us are in better positions then others...healthwise, housing, income, insurance..."count your blessings" !

-Music; A 800 year old way of (Irish) singing ;Sean Nós...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean-n%C3%B3s_song#Possible_origins_in_Iberia_and_the_Arab_world[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sean-n%C3%B3s_song#Possible_origins_in_Iberia_and_the_Arab_world ; To many listeners, sean-nós singing sounds "foreign" or more specifically Arabic.[5][6] Similarities can also be heard with the sacred music of the Orthodox Churches of Ethiopia and Eritrea. Sean-nós singers have noticed similarities with their style and the styles of Bedouin music and Spanish cante jondo.[7]

The ethnomusicologist Joan Rimmer suggested that the music of the Arab worldSouthern Europe and Ireland are all linked.[7] The famous folklorist Alan Lomax said:

[I] have long considered Ireland to be part of the Old Southern Mediterranean-Middle Eastern family of style that I call bardic – highly ornamentedfree rhythmed, solo, or solo and string accompanied singing that support sophisticated and elaborate forms.[7]

The writer Máirtín Ó Cadhain compared the singing style and dark physical appearance of Seosamh Ó hÉanaí to that of the Gitanos of Granada.[7] The "black Irish" appearance is often attributed to Spanish Armada shipwrecks[8] or ancient trade routes with Berbers.[9] Film-maker Bob Quinn, in his Atlantean series of films, suggests a North African cultural connection, explaining the long physical distances between the cultures with the seafaring nature of the Connemara people.[7] The musical connection has been tenuously connected to the fact that the people of Connacht have a significant amount of ancient Berber or Tuareg DNA.

DJ A "sort of singing"may have been used for thousends of years to keep some stories alive...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zCv3XXjCY8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zCv3XXjCY8 

Stay safe !


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, 

October 1...last three months, 92 days of 2021...

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global cases -9%, global deaths -8%....To try to be somewhat realistic on the numbers;

cases going down because a lot of spread (now 80% ?) is without, or only mild, symptoms...

deaths going down because a lot of the most vulnarable may have allready died....

So-NO-it is not a nice picture ! Vaccines do NOT do the miracle they were expected to do by some...

Looking at real numbers; last week did see 3,45 million new cases, this week 3,15 million cases...Last week did see 56,538 deaths, this week it dropped to 52,138 deaths being (under) reported worldwide...

We can NOT reopen because of vaccine protection ! Delta R0 of between 5 and 8 needed BOTH vaccines AND restrictions/NPI.  The "good" statistics are hiding the asymptomatic spread. And as long it remains asymptomatic in most cases it may not be problematic...

Point is immunity (both natural and vaccine) may not be good enough long enough to deal with Delta and other variants on the longer term bringing more severe illness...Mutations in these variants may see a higher viral load-confronted with less protection-with winter on its way-I am not very hopefull. 

Of course I am NOT an expert, it is just my opinion...

There are several area's/countries where cases do increase..I did put up a list yesterday I will not repeat such a list...but it should remind us this pandemic is far from over !

And also-again-vaccines did buy us time but we did not use that time very well. The price for buying time may be a virus creating a higher viral load. Resulting in an increase of more severe cases. With healthcare being in crisis for over a year this will mean more deaths...

-Flutrackers latests posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924649-cidrap-rural-americans-more-likely-to-die-from-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924649-cidrap-rural-americans-more-likely-to-die-from-covid-19 ; Rural Americans are currently twice as likely to die from COVID-19 infections compared with their urban peers, according to Kaiser Health News and data from the Rural Policy Research Institute (RPRI) at the University of Iowa.
Since March 2020, 1 in 434 rural Americans have died from COVID-19, compared with roughly 1 in 513 urban Americans. 

And unlike deaths in urban areas, the vaccine rollout has not slowed COVID-19 fatalities in rural parts of the country due to low uptake. 

Short-staffed hospitals and limited access to healthcare are also contributing factors, the researchers say.
Current 7-day average fatality rates are twice as high in rural regions, at more than 0.8 deaths per 100,000 population, compared with 0.4 per 100,000 in urban areas, according to RPRI data.
Virus incidence rates in September were roughly 54% higher in rural areas than elsewhere, and in 39 states, rural counties had higher rates of COVID than urban counties.
In related news, health officials in Idaho, a predominately rural state with some of the lowest vaccination rates in the country, said more kids and babies are being hospitalized with COVID-related complications. 

As of this week, 1,700 new COVID-19 cases were reported in children in Idaho, according to the Associated Press.

DJ Since most people live in cities, urban area's healthcare may be better, easier to get, maybe at least part of urban population also has had better education, more chances to get tested...Still most serious cases, deaths will be in cities due to the high number of people living there, faster spread of the virus, peak of cases resulting to healthcare running out of capacity for a short time. Of course this may be the global picture...Also from the link;

Global headlines

  • The risk of a COVID surge in Europe over the next 2 months is very high, due to high virus circulation from the Delta (B1617.2) variant and breakthrough cases in vulnerable people, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said in its latest risk assessment It also predicted greater proportions of cases in children. So far, only 61% of the European region's population are fully vaccinated, and levels vary widely by country. Health officials urged countries to step up their vaccination efforts and take other COVID-19 measures, depending on the local epidemiologic situation.
  • In Australia today, Victoria state reported 1,438 new cases—a 50% jump—partly fueled by people breaking distancing rules to gather to watch the country's football final, according to Reuters. Half the state's population 16 or over have received a vaccine dose, a level below the country average of 53%.
  • Vietnam's main COVID-19 hot spot Ho Chi Minh City began loosening restrictions today after 4 months of mitigation measures. Illness levels have declined, and the country hopes to restart the economy and learn to balance case prevention and regular activities.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924643-cidrap-news-scan-ecmo-and-covid-death-breakthrough-covid-19-in-scotland-wearable-sensors-for-flu-colds-h5n6-avian-flu-cases-in-china-cwd-testing-incentive-in-louisiana-illinois-rabies-death[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924643-cidrap-news-scan-ecmo-and-covid-death-breakthrough-covid-19-in-scotland-wearable-sensors-for-flu-colds-h5n6-avian-flu-cases-in-china-cwd-testing-incentive-in-louisiana-illinois-rabies-death ; Critically ill COVID-19 patients who received extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) at the end of 2020 had a higher mortality rate than those who received it in the first half of the year, according to a study published yesterday in The Lancet.- "ECMO cannot be blamed for the increased mortality; it is merely a tool and clinicians still need to understand when to use it for the greatest benefit," Vuylsteke concludes.

-

Less than 0.05% of Scottish people at least partially vaccinated against COVID-19 were hospitalized or died from the virus, according to a large, population-based study looking at data from Dec 8, 2020, to Apr 18, 2021.- Higher risk was associated with being 80 years or older versus being 18 to 64 (adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 4.75), having five or more comorbidities (aRR, 4.24), being hospitalized in the previous 4 weeks (aRR, 3.00), or being employed in a high-risk occupation (aRR, 2.14). Those who were residents in a care home (aRR, 1.63), socioeconomically deprived (most deprived quintile vs least, aRR, 1.57), male (aRR, 1.27), or an ex-smoker versus a non-smoker (aRR, 1.18) also had higher risks.


On the other hand, the researchers note, having COVID-19 prior to vaccination was protective (aRR, 0.40). Those who had a longer interval between the two doses also appeared to have a lower risk (the United Kingdom extended the vaccine dose intervals to 8- to 12-weeks to maximize supply).
"Restricting booster doses to populations at the highest risk for severe disease will allow maximisation of booster dose benefits, with a minimised effect on global vaccine distribution," write Eyal Lehsem, MD, and others in a related commentary.

-

A wearable biosensor can predict when a person is infected with common viruses, including a cold or influenza, even before the person experiences symptoms, according to a study yesterday in JAMA Network Open.
The challenge study collected data from of 31 participants inoculated with H1N1 flu and 18 participants inoculated with rhinovirus. A wearable device, called the E4 wristband made by Empatica, Inc, measured heart rate, skin temperature, electrodermal activity, and movement. It accurately picked up 92% of the H1N1 infections and 88% of the rhinovirus infections.
The sensors were able to detect infection 24 hours before symptom onset 90% of the time for H1N1 and 89% of the time for rhinovirus.

-

The H5N6 avian flu virus sickened two more people in China, one fatally, part of the country's steady uptick in cases this year, Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection (CHP) said today.

DJ High tech can be a great help but still can not prevent all of the problems. It also raises other questions; do we want "smart camera's surveilance" in public spaces ? How to organize public healthcare ? Who decides on what ? Is ECMO "privatizable" best care for a rich elite ? How can we stop a billionaire from buying up technology and experts-should we stop that ? Sewage-control on a household level can detect a lot of healthissues in a very early stage. But if you combine that with DNA-diagnostics and for profit healthinsurance you may end up destroying society...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/924641-eurosurv-nosocomial-outbreak-caused-by-the-sars-cov-2-delta-variant-in-a-highly-vaccinated-population-israel-july-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/924641-eurosurv-nosocomial-outbreak-caused-by-the-sars-cov-2-delta-variant-in-a-highly-vaccinated-population-israel-july-2021 ; A nosocomial outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant infected 42 patients, staff and family members; 39 were fully vaccinated. The attack rate was 10.6% (16/151) among exposed staff and reached 23.7% (23/97) among exposed patients in a highly vaccinated population, 16–26 weeks after vaccination (median: 25 weeks). All cases were linked and traced to one patient. Several transmissions occurred between individuals wearing face masks. Fourteen of 23 patients became severely sick or died, raising a question about possible waning immunity.

full article

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/con...#html_fulltext

DJ Vaccines have a peak in protection lasting a few months at best...offering "good" protection against severe disease. AstraZeneca and J&J/Janssen maybe 60%+, Pfizer and Moderna seem to do better...90%? but also age matters...The older the person the less immunity protection after vaccination. The immunity system effectivity is age related.  

Yesterday I did put a link to a Vietnam/AstraZeneca HCW-ers outbreak...Delta(+?) and other variants may be getting more infectious-higher viral load-while most people may see less protection from vaccines or natural immunity...[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericdingAnd while vaccine breakthroughs happen - they are more rare with Moderna or Pfizer than with J&J. That’s why J&J folks need a 2nd shot. As does natural infection folks - they likely need at least 1 shot according to many vaccine experts.

see also from same twitter account ; JUST ONE DAY AFTER OPENING—Sobering—The day after Disney’s Broadway spectacular Aladdin reopened, the show was canceled when several breakthrough cases of #COVID19 were detected among its unmasked cast members after performing. We need indoor disinfection.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/924640-eurosurv-expansion-of-a-sars-cov-2-delta-variant-with-an-872-nt-deletion-encompassing-orf7a-orf7b-and-orf8-poland-july-to-august-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/924640-eurosurv-expansion-of-a-sars-cov-2-delta-variant-with-an-872-nt-deletion-encompassing-orf7a-orf7b-and-orf8-poland-july-to-august-2021 ; Routine genomic surveillance on samples from COVID-19 patients collected in Poland during summer 2021 revealed the emergence of a SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant with a large 872 nt deletion. This change, confirmed by Sanger and deep sequencing, causes complete loss of ORF7a, ORF7b, and ORF8 genes. The index case carrying the deletion is unknown. The standard pipeline for sequencing may mask this deletion with a long stretch of N’s. Effects of this deletion on phenotype or immune evasion needs further study.

full article

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/con...#html_fulltext

DJ Poland, most of eastern Europe, has been seeing an increase of cases with often very limited vaccine/natural immunity. High number of cases=high number of mutations=increase risk for variants...

I can think of three possible (all bad) scenario's;

1-Delta will stay dominant most of this pandemic-Delta+ (and Delta++, +++, ++++) will keep spreading developing further towards immune resitance

2-Even with Delta R0 of between 5 and 8 another variant will show up with a R0 10+ overtaking Delta...worsening most likely this pandemic...

3-(An)other(s) SARS-variant(s) show up...there are many COrona VIral Diseases (COVID) in animals-lots of coronavirusses out there...

We may even see a mix of these three...Delta getting worse, still room for another variant, then SARS-3 (4, 5) shows up...

Just like in climate collapse "we seem to have to learn it the hard way"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/924639-eurosurv-product-specific-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-against-secondary-infection-in-close-contacts-navarre-spain-april-to-august-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/924639-eurosurv-product-specific-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-against-secondary-infection-in-close-contacts-navarre-spain-april-to-august-2021COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness by product (two doses Comirnaty, Spikevax or Vaxzevria and one of Janssen), against infection ranged from 50% (95% CI: 42 to 57) for Janssen to 86% (70 to 93) for Vaxzevria-Comirnaty combination; among ≥ 60 year-olds, from 17% (−26 to 45) for Janssen to 68% (48 to 80) for Spikevax; and against hospitalisation from 74% (43 to 88) for Janssen to > 90% for other products. Two doses of vaccine were highly effective against hospitalisation, but suboptimal for infection control.

full article
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/con...#html_fulltext

DJ "Suboptimal" means not doing enough to stop the spread...resulting in mutations, worse variants (inside Delta most). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/924636-the-first-corona-lockdown-was-a-%E2%80%98live-experiment-%E2%80%99-revealing-big-behavioral-gender-differences[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/924636-the-first-corona-lockdown-was-a-%E2%80%98live-experiment-%E2%80%99-revealing-big-behavioral-gender-differences[Vienna, September 28, 2021] In a crisis, women make significantly longer phone calls and adhere more closely to governmental measures than men; men are less likely to have their mobility restricted and return to normal more quickly than women. Researchers at the Complexity Science Hub Vienna (CSH) found cliché-sounding behavioral patterns like these in data from the first Corona lockdown in spring 2020...

DJ People are stupid, (some) men are more stupid then women ????

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924637-cidrap-regen-cov-lowers-risk-of-covid-19-hospital-stay-death-by-71[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924637-cidrap-regen-cov-lowers-risk-of-covid-19-hospital-stay-death-by-71 ; Regeneron's combination of two monoclonal antibodies lowered the risk of COVID-19–associated hospitalization and death from any cause by 71% and resolved symptoms and reduced SARS-CoV-2 viral load faster than a placebo, a phase 3 clinical trial finds.
In the study, published yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine, a team led by Regeneron researchers randomly assigned 2,696 adult COVID-19 outpatients at high risk for severe illness to receive either intravenous REGEN-COV or a placebo from Sep 24, 2020, to Jan 17, 2021.
REGEN-COV is a 1:1 combination of the monoclonal antibodies casirivimab and imdevimab.

-

Symptoms in the REGEN-COV group resolved a median of 4 days faster than in the placebo group, regardless of dose (10 vs 14 days). Both doses of REGEN-COV also lowered viral load faster than placebo.

DJ Better treatments may limit pressure on healthcare-still STOP THE SPREAD ! On the longer term both vaccines and treatments may not be able to undo the damage of CoViD's spreading...The less (asymptomatic) cases the lower the spread and risk of further mutations. This virus is a moving, dynamic, target. Strategies that once worked may not be enough further down the road !

Instead of vaccines will we soon see wide spread medication being forced upon us "to keep the economy going" ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/australia-2019-ncov/924635-au-melbourne-cases-hit-record-high-despite-two-months-of-lockdown[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/australia-2019-ncov/924635-au-melbourne-cases-hit-record-high-despite-two-months-of-lockdownMelbourne’s Covid-19 cases surged to record levels on Thursday with officials blaming illegal home gatherings to watch a key sporting event for the spike.
Officials admitted Thursday’s numbers, a 50% jump to Wednesday’s 950 cases, is a “major setback” in managing the flare-up, as they race to vaccinate the state’s 5.5 million adult population.
Half of the state’s population above 16 have received their first dose, below the national average of 53%.

DJ Australia cases up 10%; 11,777 last week-12,944 this week. Deaths +40%, last week 68, this week 95. Australia population 25,86 million-cases per million this week 500, deaths per million this week 4. 

New Zealand cases +1% from 136 to 138 this week-0 deaths...population of NZ=5 million, this week did see 28 cases per million in NZ (AU had 500 p/m !). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/maladies-animales/rage/924631-un-cas-de-rage-exceptionnel-en-france-transmise-par-une-chauve-souris[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/maladies-animales/rage/924631-un-cas-de-rage-exceptionnel-en-france-transmise-par-une-chauve-souris (google translated) ; In August 2019, a case of rabies probably transmitted by a bat caused the death of a patient in Nouvelle-Aquitaine. This exceptional case was confirmed by the National Reference Center (CNR) for rabies at the Institut Pasteur in 2020, then in a study published in May 2021 in the journal Clinical infectious diseases . This is the first time that a patient has been infected with the EBLV-1 lyssavirus in mainland France, and it is the first case of rabies contracted in mainland France since 1924! The cases of transmission by a bat in humans remain exceptional as it is only the fourth confirmed occurrence in Europe.

DJ-With cities getting larger bats and humans may mix more-increasing the risks for bats spreading diseases in humans...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/pneumonia-and-influenza-like-illnesses-ili-ae/connecticut-aa/924630-ct-yale-health-sees-%E2%80%9Cunprecedented%E2%80%9D-number-of-visits-and-calls-this-fall-due-to-flu-like-illness[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/pneumonia-and-influenza-like-illnesses-ili-ae/connecticut-aa/924630-ct-yale-health-sees-%E2%80%9Cunprecedented%E2%80%9D-number-of-visits-and-calls-this-fall-due-to-flu-like-illness ; Yale Health sees “unprecedented” number of visits and calls this fall
As an unidentified virus circulates among the student population, students are running into issues with missing classes with no uniform absence policy in place.
Isabelle Qian & Isaac Yu 11:24 pm, Sep 29, 2021
Staff Reporters

Dubbed the “Yale Plague,” a non-COVID-19 sickness has spread throughout the student body. Yalies infected with the illness have struggled to make up content for missed classes.

A large number of students have reported experiencing flu symptoms in recent weeks — with triage calls to Yale Student Health this month up 40 percent from Sept. 2019, according to Chief of Student Health Christine Chen. Per the University’s COVID-19 guidelines, students with flu-like symptoms are advised to stay in their room and self-isolate until they receive a negative COVID-19 test. When students fall ill, they are therefore forced to miss class for at least a day, if not more.

“We are experiencing an unprecedented number of visits, calls, and communications via [MyChart] this fall,” Chen wrote in an email to the News. “Though we continue to see COVID-19 cases, the virus that has been circulating among students appears to be something else.”

-

Chen suggested that part of the increase in demand for clinic services can be attributed to an increased student population for this academic year. Still, she asked students to protect themselves from the circulating sickness with now-familiar pandemic precautions, like mask-wearing and social distancing. She also urged all students to sign up for mandatory flu vaccines as soon as possible, calling the approaching influenza season a “great concern.”

DJ If the students test negative for CoVid AND for flu, lots of other virusses I (as a non-expert) would believe some Delta-variants (?) may escape testing ? Time will tell by the symptoms if students "just" get a severe cold, more of a flu, or see a pattern of symptoms that look like more severe CoVid...or maybe something new ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/malaria/924619-malaria-seems-to-be-evolving-to-hide-from-rapid-tests[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/malaria/924619-malaria-seems-to-be-evolving-to-hide-from-rapid-tests ; The pandemic has introduced a lot of people to the idea of rapid antigen tests, which can quickly and conveniently reveal the presence of an infection. But in many parts of the world, rapid tests are a central feature of health care. If you don't have easy access to a testing lab infrastructure—and many in the developing world don't—rapid tests can provide a quick way of screening for common problems. In a number of countries, rapid test results are what determine whether people are given anti-malaria treatments or not.

But that may be causing a unique problem. A new paper suggests that the malarial parasite may be evolving so that it can't be recognized by the most commonly used rapid tests...

DJ Also testing is-never-100%. We live in an imperfect world !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/924614-am-j-epidemiol-explaining-ethnic-differentials-in-covid-19-mortality-cohort-study[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/924614-am-j-epidemiol-explaining-ethnic-differentials-in-covid-19-mortality-cohort-study ; Ethnic inequalities in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hospitalizations and mortality have been widely reported but there is scant understanding of how they are embodied. 

The UK Biobank prospective cohort study comprises around half a million people who were aged 40-69 years at study induction between 2006 and 2010 when information on ethnic background and potential explanatory factors was captured.

 Study members were prospectively linked to a national mortality registry. 

In an analytical sample of 448,664 individuals (248,820 women), 705 deaths were ascribed to COVID-19 between 5th March, 2020 and 24th January, 2021. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, relative to White participants, Black study members experienced around five times the risk of COVID-19 mortality (odds ratio; 95% confidence interval: 4.81; 3.28, 7.05), while there was a doubling in the South Asian group (2.05; 1.30, 3.25). 

Controlling for baseline comorbidities, social factors (including socioeconomic circumstances), and lifestyle indices attenuated this risk differential by 34% in Black study members (2.84; 1.91, 4.23) and 37% in South Asian individuals (1.57; 0.97, 2.55). 

The residual risk of COVID-19 deaths in ethnic minority groups may be ascribed to a range of unmeasured characteristics and requires further exploration.

DJ A combination of factors most likely can give some explanations; Higher risk jobs-both for catching a disease as to what the job does to the body. More risks in means of (public) transport. Worse housing conditions. Less education-so not recognizing some risks. More smoking/alcohol/drugs...Less access to good healthcare. 

We know these factors-we know they in part are the outcome of income inequality. By keeping the rich rich, even getting richer, making the poor even more poor we are taking away years of life expectincy for the poor. Bad politics...

-Good to see Dr. John Campbell is back ! "Out of town for a few days" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgVsd6qoyU4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgVsd6qoyU4 ; "Aspiration, more information"...;

"It is not necessary to draw back on the syringe plunger before injecting a vaccine.14 However, if you have done this and a flash of blood appears in the needle hub, withdraw the needle and select a new site for injection."

So the technique I was taught decades ago and which you have taught since has been quietly retired. I'll check the science behind this curious decision. Keep up the good work. 

Mom This doesn’t explain why it’s mostly only happening to adolescent and young males. Matter of fact, that narrow demographic almost excludes your reasoning here unless you’re saying only males are getting accidental IV vaccines. 

Aspiration before injection of vaccines or toxoids (i.e., pulling back on the syringe plunger after needle insertion but before injection) is not necessary because no large blood vessels are present at the recommended injection sites, and a process that includes aspiration might be more painful for infants 

Vaccines should not be given intravenously.  

Nurses in UK don't aspirate inspite of requests which is scary.. Young adults have more chance of myocardits ,they have turgid blood vessels 

Abnormal radial artery is known. Pulse is felt on lateral side and not at usual site. So even inside body abnormaly positioned blood vessels or extra vessels are possible. 

Although rare it can be fatal as well.  

I inject myself with anabolic steroids and have done for the past 20 years, my preferred injection site is the deltoids, its a deep intramuscular injection, I aspirate and on many occasions I have drawn blood, I would say around 1 out of 30.

Hi John, when I get my booster, can I ask who ever is administering it to aspirate, before they give it??? 

Jerome (cancer and reconstructive surgeon) I have never understood why present day training seems to advise against aspiration prior to intramuscular injection in both medical and nursing courses. 

DJ Not aspirating-checking if they hit a bloodvessel-is the new training guideline in many places. Proberbly "saving time" and less pain, stress, may be the reasons for it-the price may be more risks for complications...Most likely NOT only in younger males but-less clear-in other groups as well...

-Music; Memory-Cats [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gd_ohoPzYc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gd_ohoPzYc "even calming down trump"....[url]https://www.vulture.com/2021/09/donald-trump-aide-cats-memory-angry.html[/url] or https://www.vulture.com/2021/09/donald-trump-aide-cats-memory-angry.html 


work in progres


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 30 2021 at 11:11pm

On the same page of a UK newspaper this morning were two articles next to each other. The first said Covid numbers had gone up. The second said Covid numbers had fallen. It's madness. 


I heard today about the son of a friend of mine in Europe who two weeks ago went on a three hour car ride with 3 other students. Unbeknowingly, one of them had Covid. The other two students have since tested positive to it, but the son is still returning a negative result. He doesn't think he has had it before nor has he been vaccinated. Go figure! Perhaps some people, for whatever reason, have a natural immunity to it. Fyi they kept the car windows closed for the whole ride.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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