Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
scenario's |
Post Reply | Page <1 2829303132 41> |
Author | |
cn65
V.I.P. Member Joined: May 09 2020 Status: Offline Points: 275 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
The problem you have is the the world was "sold" on the vax's being the answer. If we now find that actually they are not, and from what I hear is seems that they are not 'Vax's' according to the pre 2021 definition of a vax they are more a theraputic treatment, then the world has two problems 1. any further claim that 'something' is now the answer is going to be ignored 2. What else "IS" the answer? If the answer is that the we must maintain social distancing and mask wearing for the rest of time let alone ban foreign travel then you can forget it - it is simply not going to happen. That in turn means that, just like in ancient pandemics where there were no medical facilities yet invented where the weak, the vulnerable, the old, and the genetically suspecptible die from the virus and the rest who can fight it off continue that is exactly what is going to happen now. |
|
WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
I don't know what bill of sale you were sold in your neck of the woods, cn65, but the one I bought was that the vaccine would save lives. It has, except if one has refused to be vaccinated. The last statistics I saw were along the lines of 97% of Covid deaths, 95% of hospitalizations and 94% of the overall cases in the last four or five months were among the unvaccinated. That means 3%, 5% and 6%, respectively, were vaccinated. I don't know what answer you were looking for, but the promise I was given delivered. But, see for yourself - https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/95119 |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, If vaccine protection [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RerKFYCVFVY&t=477s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RerKFYCVFVY&t=477s Dr. John Campbell ; Specifically, for protection against infection Janssen March, 92% August, 3% Moderna March, 91% August, 64% Pfizer March, 95% August, 50% Delta variant as the primary determinant of infection then there is a problem ! [url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.13.21264966v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.13.21264966v1 ; AbstractNational data on COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections is inadequate but urgently needed to determine U.S. policy during the emergence of the Delta variant. We address this gap by comparing SARS CoV-2 infection by vaccination status from February 1, 2021 to August 13, 2021 in the Veterans Health Administration, covering 2.7% of the U.S. population. Vaccine protection declined by mid-August 2021, decreasing from 91.9% in March to 53.9% (p<0.01, n=619,755). Declines were greatest for the Janssen vaccine followed by Pfizer–BioNTech and Moderna. Patterns of breakthrough infection over time were consistent by age, despite rolling vaccine eligibility, implicating the Delta variant as the primary determinant of infection. Findings support continued efforts to increase vaccination and an immediate, national return to additional layers of protection against infection. DJ There have been warnings over and over you can NOT get out of this pandemic with only vaccines-yet that turned out to be the choice lots of governments de facto did. The out come a.o. is the AY.4.2 Delta sub-variant....[url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ/status/1452900753035698176/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ/status/1452900753035698176/photo/1 showing mortality with VUI-21oct-1 is 0,72% other Delta 0,54% with limited numbers 62 VUI-21oct-1/AY.4.2 and 3,813 Delta patients. Yes vaccines make a difference in severe illness but vaccines did NOT stop this pandemic...and by that we may see immunity evading new variants (AY.4.2 could be a forewarning ). The answer will be better vaccines if possible....otherwise "people have to get a lot less social" ....In the short term the virus is getting more mean it looks like not milder ! In the best scenario's-with massive vaccinations & boosters we only can buy time before the virus will get problematic again.... Just my opinion...I am not an expert (or neutral, objective etc...) |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
The thing is vaccine will protect from this variant,and maybe a few mutations on, However booster shots every year will become part of life as is the flu vaccine which we all take for granted...... Vaccines for those countries that can afford it , are the way out of the pandemic, Unfortunately many countries cannot possibly vaccinated all their citizens, therefore mutations/variants will never end ,the only hope is a mutation that is relatively harmless comes forth, Can't see that happening though..... Partially vaccinated people are the danger here ,as the virus will become more resistant...... Not rocket science...... Just virology...... Take care all 😷😉💉 P.S.DJ,you are correct the vaccine didn't stop the pandemic,it was well on its way before we got a vaccine off the drawing board. galls me to say , thankfully warp speed promoted by trump ,got the vaccine we have now... Which his supporters are refusing to take 🤔🤔🤔 |
|
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, What I like from a title as "scenario's" it is very elastic-you can discuss a lot of things...relate them to this pandemic to get a different view from another corner... Relations do matter in times of crises. It is also a testcase for relations. I do not agree with the idea that "a good relation is the outcome of hard work (some even include "sacrifice" in it)". A relation "works" or it does not ! If it is a "hard job" maybe it is not such a good relation.... People-like most other animals-like company within certain limits. In this pandemic a partner, children/pets can continu some sort of social life when the "outdoor activity" is ending up in a parking space.... People in a relation are believed-studies indicate-to have less stress, live healthier and longer...A good relation can prevent some unwise actions in a good scenario...But some people may be happier with a cat or dog then with another fellow human... Since people get older relations have to last longer. If people die at age 80+ it may take a strong relation that can deal with 60 years sharing eachothers live...But I think live is about sharing, caring...maybe that gives some meaning to our presence on this globe... Another item on this forum-also in scenario's is vaccines, politics, US.....how Americans mix up vaccines, masks with politics to again fight eachother....I believe Trump is double vaccinated, he paid for vaccine development (without limiting profits-cheaper vaccines, non-profit, would reach more people-a very welcome effect during a pandemic !) yet still a lot of his followers are anti CoViD vaccines while vaccinations are not new...quite old ! Masks became political statements in the US.... Portugal managed to keep politics out of vaccinations...and has one of the highest levels 90%+ 12y/o+ and yes it matters ! But cases go up 17% in Portugal-just a reality check....Since 90% vaccination giving 80% protection (at best) on a population of about 10 million ends up (80% of 9 million=) 7,2 million being protected still 2,8 million not getting enough protection... So maybe science can help.... Big Pharma never claimed vaccines protected 100% against infections. With variants having a R0 of 5 to 8+ you would need "perfect matching vaccines"...well, the vaccines being developed where made to match the early variant of CoViD....not the new variants... With in most countries (even the US !!!) in the "rich West" having 50%+ of the adults vaccinated-YES-a certain percentage of people testing positive, getting ill, on ICU or even dying from CoViD will be in the vaccinated group...it is statistics... Certainly in older age groups immunity does not do such a great job, lots of people do not have such a good immunity to begin with...Vaccine immunity is getting weaker in months not years...Natural immunity turned out not to survive variants...lots of people (Brazil, Iran studies) did get infected more then once...So the hope-like with SARS-1-of long lasting "natural" immunity also has gone... So what is waiting ? [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected , [url]https://cov-lineages.org/lineage.html?lineage=AY.4.2[/url] or https://cov-lineages.org/lineage.html?lineage=AY.4.2 Delta+ AY.4.2 is waiting...DJ-I see correlations between AY.4.2 detections and explosive increase of cases in the weekly trends... [url]https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/early-influenza-cases-indicate-possibility-severe-upcoming-season-elderly[/url] or https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/early-influenza-cases-indicate-possibility-severe-upcoming-season-elderly A-H3N2 (good in ignoring flu-vaccines) is "happy to join the party".... So it may be hard to distinguish between flu-deaths and CoViD deaths...lots of people may have both.... On top of that I notice an increase of news on CoViD in (Zoo)animals...giving an increase of new variants... Healthcare-still ignored and mistreated by politics-(they do not sponsor politicians) is at breaking point. To put it in hard, but clear words...over 1% of global healthcare workers proberbly allready did die in this pandemic !!! A lot of experienced doctors, nurses are dead !!! It will take more then 20 years experience to replace them... Public jobs did become high risk low pay jobs...underlining this pandemic is part of a far bigger problem !!! What kind of civilization, what sort of society do we want if we do not want to pay a decent income for public duties, public jobs ? Are we that blind ???? Do we no longer need healthcare, education, police ? For that matter is every supermarket worker "replaceable" ? Are we-as civilization-not getting "very much out of balance " ???? There is a lot of similarity between this pandemic and climate "change" (lets call a house fire a "changing proces" ) with the UNEP indicating the present plans to keep global (IPEC numbers, allready unrealistic) temperature rise below 1,5C would indicate a temperature rise of 2,7c... Humans may have to redefine themselves !!! I am a human...more then I am Dutch, a gender, a skincolour, a political choice...If we want to survive better start thinking !! |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, -Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; During the weekend numbers stayed below the 400,000 mark-mainly because of a lack of testing in several countries. The numbers for monday-showing up in tuesday results (october 26) show 427,713 new cases, trend +3% (worldwide that is !). Reported deaths 7,552 trend +0,7%...for both numbers we may see ourselve as very lucky if the real number is "only" twice as high... Massive, ad random testing is proberbly only done in China. Putting a city of 4 million in lockdown when they detect 6 new cases...Why do we keep failing to test ? We proberbly miss as good as all asymptomatic and most mild cases...here in NL less then 50% of the population would go for a (public) test when they have a cold... If you do not test you do not find cases. If you have no case you have no samples. If you have no samples you do not have any idea on the variants. And that by choice after allmost 2 years in this pandemic.... Top 3 for cases; US 69,634 (-14%), UK 40,954 (0%), Russia 36,446 (+12%) all with at best limited testing... Top 3 for deaths; US still at #1 with 1,451 people dying from CoVid trend -19%. Russia is getting ready to become number one with 1,106 deaths reported, trend +7%. Ukraine at #3 with 734 deaths-trend +56%... A note India trend for deaths is +105%, "only" reporting 584 deaths yesterday...NL reporting deaths trend is +60%...but in real numbers I hope "we" can stay out of a global top ten... Still looking at "developing countries" - the countries we keep poor (like underpaying public work etc..it is by choice !) in statistics seem to do a decent job...Of course if you do net test you will not find cases, if you do not sequence you will not find variants... Africa cases keep going down -24%, deaths -3%...South Africa cases -34%, however deaths +28%...Egypt cases +1%, deaths allready +8%. Nigeria cases +28%, deaths -44%, Kenya cases -26%, deaths -21%... What part of these number paint a realistic picture and what part is useless ? If the trends would at least offer some indications it would be more then welcome ! South America cases +9%, deaths -7%. Chile cases +29%, Colombia +15%, Ecuador +14%, Brazil +12%, Argentina, Bolivia +11%...with limited sequencing most likely Delta (and Delta+/AY.4.2) is spreading ? Asia cases -8%, deaths +9% (most the outcome of India +105% increase in deaths). China cases increase with 98%...but in real numbers 269 this week, last week 136 cases an average western town is doing worse.... Maldives +46%, Afghanistan +34% (how much testing is left there ? I hope there is still some basic healthcare for the people !), Armenia +33%, Qatar +33%, Nepal +28%, Jordan, Laos +13%, Taiwan +9%, Vietnam +8%... Indonesia -26%, Philippines -30%, Bangladesh also -30%, Pakistan -31%, Israel -38%, Japan-42%... On vaccinations many countries following Israeli ideas of vaccinating younger age groups and booster vaccines...But it is getting pointless if that does not used to drive the R0 close to 0,1.... So the choice we now face "living with the virus" (as if there are no variants...and living is a choice...) wich in fact means letting this pandemic getting worse or-finally-deal with it ! We can NOT survive "climate change" , neither can we survive "living with this mutating virus"...We give people who stand in the way of solving problems much better pay then those in public jobs... -Flutrackers etc. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/926419-virology-dynamics-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-voc-in-bangladesh-during-the-first-half-of-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/926419-virology-dynamics-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-voc-in-bangladesh-during-the-first-half-of-2021 ; Abstract Within the study timeframe, at least eight Nextstrain clades were found: 20A, 20B, 20C, 20H (Beta, V2), 20I (Alpha, V1), 20 J (Gamma, V3), 21A (Delta), 21D (Eta), and six GISAID clades: four main (G, GH, GR, GRY) and two minors (GV, O) with an introduction of VOC B.1.1.7/Alpha, B.1.351/Beta and B.1.617.2/Delta. The introduction and recent occurrence of VOCs with substantial alterations in the receptor binding site of spike protein (K417 N, K417T, L452R, T478K, E484K, S494P, N501Y) are of particular importance. Specifically, VOC B.1.617.2/Delta has surpassed all prior VOCs in Bangladesh, posing a challenge to the existing disease management. DJ Outbreak has 6 AY.4.2 cases in Bangladesh...it is not "just one virus" but a "fast growing family of virusses"! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926364-russia-many-people-who-became-infected-after-vaccination-with-sputnik-v-actually-bought-a-qr-code-%E2%80%93-rossiyskaya-gazeta[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926364-russia-many-people-who-became-infected-after-vaccination-with-sputnik-v-actually-bought-a-qr-code-%E2%80%93-rossiyskaya-gazeta ; October 25, 2021 DJ In some countries the "vaccine passport" is a QR-code (on a phone or in paper) without proper ID check this simply does not work...(you can download QR codes from the internet...) [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926363-israeli-physicians-scientists-advise-fda-of-%E2%80%98severe-concerns%E2%80%99-regarding-reliability-and-legality-of-official-israeli-covid-vaccine-data[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926363-israeli-physicians-scientists-advise-fda-of-%E2%80%98severe-concerns%E2%80%99-regarding-reliability-and-legality-of-official-israeli-covid-vaccine-data ; An independent Israeli group of physicians, lawyers, scientists, and researchers called the Professional Ethics Front today advised the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regarding the upcoming FDA discussion on administering COVID-19 vaccines to children aged 5-11, expressing “severe concerns” regarding the reliability and legality of official Israeli COVID vaccine data. DJ; Israel may end up as testcase for strategies...if things do not work out Israel pays a price for being in the frontline. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/internet-communication-aa/926347-federal-gov-pays-university-750k-to-create-tool-that-warns-journalists-against-publishing-polarizing-content[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/internet-communication-aa/926347-federal-gov-pays-university-750k-to-create-tool-that-warns-journalists-against-publishing-polarizing-content ; The National Science Foundation (NSF) provided a $750,000 grant to Temple University researchers for developing a product that tracks local journalism cycles, which is part of their new "Trust & Authenticity in Communication Systems" initiative. DJ Is this NOT media-control ? Do journalists not have a duty to "produce" news that has a link to reality ? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926345-cidrap-who-advisors-say-covid-19-pandemic-far-from-over[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926345-cidrap-who-advisors-say-covid-19-pandemic-far-from-over ; After reviewing the latest COVID-19 developments last week, the World Health Organization (WHO) emergency committee said the pandemic is far from over, though countries are making progress in rolling out vaccines and treatments. DJ; Vaccines-at best-are part of the solution ! Why international airtravel did restart-spreading variants also via vaccinated people ? Why most countries test-at best-only those with symptoms while we know (since 2020-CDC) a major part of the spread (CDC 59%) goes without symptoms...Why did it take so long to start (thinking of) vaccinating children ? Boostershots ? International strategy ? If statistics give an indication the hardest hit countries may NOT be in Africa...India, Brazil, US, Russia, UK...In the list of deaths per million South Africa ends up at #52 as the first African country...Are the statistics/testing that bad ? Or does Africa show it is better in dealing with healthissues with limited means...since they have been doing so for decades ! Maybe we could learn something from Africa ? What is the real situation in Africa with CoViD ? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/926291-pathogens-emerging-mutations-in-nsp1-of-sars-cov-2-and-their-effect-on-the-structural-stability[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/926291-pathogens-emerging-mutations-in-nsp1-of-sars-cov-2-and-their-effect-on-the-structural-stability ; Abstract Among the Nsps, Nsp1 inhibits host gene expression and also evades the immune system. This protein has been proposed as a target for vaccine development and also for drug design. Owing to its important role, the current study aimed to identify mutations in Nsp1 and their effect on protein stability and flexibility. This is the first comprehensive study in which 295,000 complete genomes have been screened for mutations after alignment with the Wuhan-Hu-1 reference genome (Accession NC_045512), using the CoVsurver app. The sequences harbored 933 mutations in the entire coding region of Nsp1. The most frequently occurring mutation in the 180-amino-acid Nsp1 protein was R24C (n = 1122), followed by D75E (n = 890), D48G (n = 881), H110Y (n = 860), and D144A (n = 648). Among the 933 non-synonymous mutations, 529 exhibited a destabilizing effect. Similarly, a gain in flexibility was observed in 542 mutations. The majority of the most frequent mutations were detected in the loop regions. These findings imply that Nsp1 mutations might be useful to exploit SARS-CoV-2's pathogenicity. Genomic sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 on a regular basis will further assist in analyzing variations among the drug targets and to test the diagnostic accuracy. This wide range of mutations and their effect on Nsp1's stability may have some consequences for the host's innate immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection and also for the vaccines' efficacy. Based on this mutational information, geographically strain-specific drugs, vaccines, and antibody combinations could be a useful strategy against SARS-CoV-2 infection. DJ In "war terms" know your enemy...In pandemic terms know the virus...the weak spots where vaccines may have a function...We need much more research-much less risk denial ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/926290-pathogens-persistence-of-antibody-responses-to-the-sars-cov-2-in-dialysis-patients-and-renal-transplant-recipients-recovered-from-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/926290-pathogens-persistence-of-antibody-responses-to-the-sars-cov-2-in-dialysis-patients-and-renal-transplant-recipients-recovered-from-covid-19 ; Abstract Despite interindividual variability, an association emerged between antibody persistence and clinical severity, similar to the subjects with preserved immune function. DJ It did take more time but this group of patients did manage to get rid of the virus within a year... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/926256-environ-res-the-global-transmission-of-new-coronavirus-variants[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/926256-environ-res-the-global-transmission-of-new-coronavirus-variants ; Abstract The results of this study indicate that Africa and Europe will be affected by new coronavirus variants the most compared with other continents. The comparative analysis indicates that vaccination can contain the spread of the virus in most of the continent, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as restriction on gatherings and close public transport, will effectively curb the pandemic, especially in densely populated continents. According to our Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic, the diffusion of delta lineage in the US shows seasonal oscillation characteristics, and the first wave will occur in October 2021, with the record of 323,360, and followed by a small resurgence in April 2022, with the record of 184,196, while the second wave will reach to 232,622 cases in October 2022. Our study will raise the awareness of new coronavirus variants among the public, and will help the governments make appropriate directives to cope with the new coronavirus variants. DJ (Article [url]https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935121015413?via%3Dihub[/url] or https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935121015413?via%3Dihub Lets get real-it may be optimistic to think we will totally get rid of CoViD in 2022...It would be more then welcome if we can get better vaccines, treatments...but so far the progress there was undone by "reopenings to save the economy insanity".... This pandemic is a political problem. Without major political changes we can NOT survive !!! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/926456-vaccines-basel-reinfections-in-covid-19-patients-impact-of-virus-genetic-variability-and-host-immunity[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/926456-vaccines-basel-reinfections-in-covid-19-patients-impact-of-virus-genetic-variability-and-host-immunity ; DJ Outdated article in my opinion....It would be welcome if natural immunity limited reinfections...but it does not ! Also some "reinfections" turned out to be the virus never left the body-became reactivated after some negative test in the upper airways... Twitters [url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_B ; Some scientists have played a questionable role during this pandemic. What worries me most is the clinging to seniority rather then sometimes having a content based discussion. Which if I can humbly remind ourselves is the fundament of science. DJ Disagreeing with your boss has consequences-also in science jobs. (Certainly when you turn out to be right often and your boss is missing the point...) [url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; So is this 110 million doses at most? Africa needs *at the very least* 1.6. billion doses of vaccines. Drops in a very large bucket. This is why countries have been pushing for access to vaccine recipes to produce their own, rather than rely on Big Pharma + western donation. DJ What excuse the "rich countries"have to keep poor countries poor and starving ? "We" have better weapons ? (therefore more civilized ?). Like the west did help IS against Russia and China the west puts corrupt leaders in power in poor countries and then claim corruption is the reason for poverty...while western mines exploit natural resources..now facing China trying to do the same under Chinese terms... [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; ..advanced age is associated with age-related degradation of the immune system (immunosenescence) & dysregulated inflammatory responses (inflammaging)... aged individuals are likely to be considerably less able than adult macaques to compensate for immune deficiencies... DJ A younger population has better "natural" protection & defenses. And the sad part is we have remnants of old solid & knowledgeable public-health institutions (created at the beginning of the 20th century & excelled post-WWII) that could have (once, a long time ago) implemented pandemic play-book procedures. And The other deeply depressing part is the mindset of Western scientists Who cling to vaccination as the only solution because they cannot conceive of anything but a technological solution But mass testing is also a technological solution, yet it was never seriously considered... DJ A conflict between vaccinated and unvaccinated does NOT help ! If you want-as a government-ALL people get vaccinated make a law to do so ! Otherwise come up with better plans to get the maximum protection ! Stop playing crazy games with millions of lives ! -Dr. John Campbell on"low vitamin D and increased mortality" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwNgKJ-7YWQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwNgKJ-7YWQ ; Vitamin D, lower levels, common in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) Study of patients with existing CVD N = 37,079 patients with CVD from the UK Biobank study Among 37,079 patients with CVD at baseline, 57.5% were vitamin D deficient Deficient, 25[OH]D less than 50 nmol/L (less than 20ng/ml) Median follow-up of 11.7 years Deaths that occurred = 6,319 total 2,161 deaths from CVD 2,230 deaths from cancer 623 deaths from respiratory disease 1,305 other-cause deaths That is deaths went up as vitamin D levels went down (P-non-linearity less than 0.01) Among CVD patients with vitamin D deficiency For every 10 nmol/L increment in serum 25(OH)D concentrations, There was an associated 12% reduced risk for all-cause mortality There was an associated 9% reduced risk for CVD mortality. In patients with vitamin D deficiency Per 10 nmol/L increase in serum 25(OH)D levels, was associated with a lower risk of mortality from (aHR]; 95% CI) DJ You can get supplements to increase your health, decrease healthrisks...Of course good food, NOT driving a car (or going on a plane) does help not only you but all of us ! -Music ; I started with relations, may well end with it; Love Story - Andy Williams - 1970 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrZ2ibWOgkM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrZ2ibWOgkM "SHE FILLS MY HEART WITH VERY SPECIAL THINGS WITH ANGELS SONGS, WITH WILD IMAGININGS SHE FILLS MY SOUL WITH SO MUCH LOVE THAT ANYWHERE I GO, I'M NEVER LONELY WITH HER AROUND, WHO COULD BE LONELY I REACH FOR HER HAND IT'S ALWAYS THERE" |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, -Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ show "we are not all in the same boat"....Global cases +3%, deaths +0,7%. But those numbers are influenced by a still strong increase of cases/deaths in Europe +20%/+14%, South America cases +9% and India deaths +105% are also major factors pushing numbers up... One explanation could be "to little restrictions" and in part UK, NL, Belgium that may be part of the story. To little vaccinations is the case in Eastern Europe, Russia, Poland, Romania often also with hardly serious restrictions...A third factor is the AY.4.2 Delta sub-variant more infectious (=higher R0) and more deathly...A fourth factor may be waning immunity-lots of most vulnarables did get vaccinated early this year...Proberbly a not yet very clear fifth factor may be QR-codes to be used as "vaccine passports" to a certain % being false...It will be a small group but it allows the virus to spread. US cases have been going down now for some time-even with limited restrictions/vaccinations. From "modern western countries" the US is now around the worst vaccinated country...also restrictions are-at best-limited. So why do cases in the US go down -14%, deaths -19% ? Is Europe earlier in the UK AY.4.2 variant ? Does the US in general-still have better restrictions then some parts of Europe ? What I read is in some parts of the US there is mask use in schools, shops...far from perfect but proberbly still better then in NL, Belgium where masks are supposed to be used in public transport...hospitals made their own mask rules... South America is moving into summer ! Chile was one of the better vaccinated countries, in Brazil vaccinations are supposed to be increasing...South America cases +9%, deaths -7%....(indicating a new wave...AY.4.2 ???) Chile cases +29%, deaths +39% (deaths higher then cases could indicate there is still an old wave... Then Asia...India cases -1% (and deaths +105% with a lot of under reporting...). Is AY.4.2 starting another wave in India after it just was in the last phase of "other Delta subvariants" (Delta started in India peak april this year proberbly allready killing millions...). China is seeing cases +98% (last week 136, this week 269) but is managing-with massive testing, isolating, contact tracing, to keep numbers down...If I compare China's numbers with that of New Zealand (5 million people) cases +49%, last week 449, this week 669 I wonder "are we realy fighting this pandemic"? Here in NL (cases +51%, deaths +60%)-and in many other European countries, with both flu and winter on its way healthcare is "preparing for worst case scenario's". Allready discussion on keeping room-also on ICU-for non-CoViD care so other delayed care (hearth, cancer, transplants) can go on-to keep the damage there at least within limits... The excess deaths numbers are going up in many places because a lot of people that would have had care if there was no pandemic end up having to wait to long. This pandemic is starting to result in increased non-CoViD deaths because ill people visit a doctor to late...get not the needed care... DJ-My impression is; 1-AY.4.2 may be starting yet another wave-allready in Europe, India/parts of Asia, South America...proberbly allready in Oceania (Papua New Guinea has had high numbers may now be allready facing AY.4.2). Other parts of the globe will follow... 2-Season effect is very limited at best. South America may see cases explode again ! 3-Natural immunity may protect against reinfection by the same variant. Brazil, Iran studies indicate it is NOT effective enough against new variants...so people may get CoViD over and over again allready (just like with cold-corona virus but far more destructive). Natural protection 6-8 months in the best scenario ? 4-Vaccine protection needs boosters...maybe even more often then with the flu-vaccine. Older/vulnarable people may not build that good immunity protection. In some people with immunity problems (booster)vaccines may only offer "very limited extra protection"...(Maybe better then nothing-but there you have to balance the risks...living in a buble, restricting to save contacts, offers better protection.) 5-In the start politics went for "slow natural build up of herd immunity"-keep healthcare going-the risks of infection was underestimated. Since "natural immunity build-up" resulted in a healthcare crisis vaccines where welcome-with that vaccine passports, QR-codes...The main goal of politics was "keep the economy going"...but that strategy made the pandemic getting worse... A major problem is now an "elite-bubble" of "experts&politics (some politicians see themselves as experts not even knowing the basics of biology, pandemics...)" has to accept they did get it wrong...Given the pride, arrogance, power that "elite"has a review of strategy may see "bodies piling up" (Allthough UK cases +0%, deaths +8% at 982 this week....getting close to 1,000 deaths per week in the UK). Here in NL a vaccine passport for hitler did not change politics idea of the (lack of) usefullness of vaccine QR-codes...Social distancing is better ! -Flutrackers etc. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926490-china-covid-19-prevention-and-control-procedures-have-closed-restricted-many-venues-throughout-the-country-october-28-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926490-china-covid-19-prevention-and-control-procedures-have-closed-restricted-many-venues-throughout-the-country-october-28-2021 ; October 28th 00:03 DJ China has-in some places-almost open borders with Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, also with Russia, Mongolia...(Chinese tourists visited North Korea till this pandemic showed up). There is not an "Iron Wall" surrounding China. Laos, Vietnam, North Korea also may go for "zero-CoViD". [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926488-china-border-between-china-and-mongolia-cited-as-possible-source-of-latest-covid-19-outbreak-october-28-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926488-china-border-between-china-and-mongolia-cited-as-possible-source-of-latest-covid-19-outbreak-october-28-2021 ; The Alxa League of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region reported on the details of 11 local confirmed cases on the 27th. Many people worked in the Ceke Port Economic Development Zone, including ambulance drivers, doctors, and nurses at the Mongolian Medical Hospital of Ceke Port Economic Development Zone. DJ; Some mining-stations, "economic zones" are just as oilrigs very isolated-people living close to eachother...So if there is a disease you have a problem. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926471-denmark-health-min-says-lockdown-likely-if-people-don-t-get-vaccinated-as-covid-cases-rise[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926471-denmark-health-min-says-lockdown-likely-if-people-don-t-get-vaccinated-as-covid-cases-rise ; Denmark has vaccinated 75 per cent of its entire population, and 85 per cent over the age of 12, as per Sputnik reports. However, it still has witnessed over 1,000 daily instances of COVID cases for the past week. Danish Health Minister Magnus Heunicke has warned to reimpose limitations in the wake of recent developments. Heunicke stated that Denmark might face a fresh lockdown if more people do not get vaccinated against the Coronavirus. The country lifted the restriction just a month ago. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ad/926470-ancient-permafrost-bacteria-can-be-resistant-to-modern-antibiotics[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ad/926470-ancient-permafrost-bacteria-can-be-resistant-to-modern-antibiotics ; The resistance of pathogenic micro-organisms to antibiotics is our responsibility — starting from negligent farmers seeking how to save their crops and animals from the disease at all costs, to all those who are taking antibiotics without a doctor’s advice. As a result of such massive antibiotic “bombardment”, the most powerful bacteria and fungi survive, then transmitting antibiotic resistance genes to their descendants. It is difficult to keep up with this evolution: it may take years from the stage of synthesizing a new drug to putting it on the market. DJ source [url]https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/932720[/url] or https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/932720 Notice; The above source is Russian, written by Russians...I also put links to Chinese sources, written by Chinese...If you think Russians, Chinese "can not think", are "bad by definition" please stop reading scenario's or visiting this forum....In these crises people have to unite...If you think an article written by a woman, or a person with a non-white skin is "lesser science" then YOU are the problem !!!! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/926460-chp-closely-monitors-human-case-of-avian-influenza-a-h5n6-in-mainland-66-yr-old-male-in-yongzhou-hunan-province[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/926460-chp-closely-monitors-human-case-of-avian-influenza-a-h5n6-in-mainland-66-yr-old-male-in-yongzhou-hunan-province DJ Another case of H5N6 in China. Do they find more cases because of more testing-pandemic related ? A full lust of H5N6 cases at [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/723926-flutrackers-h5n6-cumulative-case-list[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/723926-flutrackers-h5n6-cumulative-case-list Related [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/surveillance-and-epidemic-control/926372-j-wildl-dis-isolation-and-identification-of-a-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h5n6-virus-from-migratory-waterfowl-in-western-mongolia[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/surveillance-and-epidemic-control/926372-j-wildl-dis-isolation-and-identification-of-a-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h5n6-virus-from-migratory-waterfowl-in-western-mongolia ; Abstract DJ Some birds travel from Asia to Europe and back...So H5N6 may not stay an East-Asia problem...(And yes we have the "usual outbreaks" of bird flu in Europe). Also; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics/926407-emerg-microbes-infect-a-single-amino-acid-mutation-at-position-225-in-hemagglutinin-attenuates-h5n6-influenza-virus-in-mice[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics/926407-emerg-microbes-infect-a-single-amino-acid-mutation-at-position-225-in-hemagglutinin-attenuates-h5n6-influenza-virus-in-mice ; Abstract The highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N6 viruses are widely circulating in poultry and wild birds, and have caused 38 human infections including 21 deaths; however, the key genetic determinants of the pathogenicity of these viruses have yet to be fully investigated. Here, we characterized two H5N6 avian influenza viruses--A/duck/Guangdong/S1330/2016 (GD/330) and A/environment/Fujian/S1160/2016 (FJ/160)--that have similar viral genomes but differ markedly in their lethality in mice. GD/330 is highly pathogenic with a 50% mouse lethal dose (MLD50) of 2.5 log10 50% egg infectious doses (EID50), whereas FJ/160 exhibits low pathogenicity with an MLD50 of 7.4 log10 EID50. We explored the molecular basis for the difference in virulence between these two viruses. By using reverse genetics, we created a series of reassortants and mutants in the GD/330 background and assessed their virulence in mice. We found that the HA gene of FJ/160 substantially attenuated the virulence of GD/330 and that the mutation of glycine (G) to tryptophan (W) at position 225 (H3 numbering) in HA played a key role in this function. We further found that the amino acid mutation G225W in HA decreased the acid and thermal stability and increased the pH of HA activation, thereby attenuating the H5N6 virus in mice. Our study thus identifies a novel molecular determinant in the HA protein and provides a new target for the development of live attenuated vaccines and antiviral drugs against H5 influenza viruses. DJ Yes I think this was a "gain of function" study...It also shows why this kind of studies are needed, to get vaccines, early warning...And yes they are not "free of risks" but nothing in life is... H5N6 could become a major problem if Chinese mostly cases keep going up. But cases may also go up because there is a lot more testing and study...For now H3N2 is the major Flu-season problem combining with CoViD (a.o.) Some twitters; [url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_B ; "The lack of global equity is due in part to the fundamental misunderstanding of global solidarity as being founded on generosity, not justice. It is also caused by longstanding systemic inequities in the broader international system" DJ One of the reasons for "never ending poverty" for some is racism, also sexism is stopping progress. Both have very old roots in "religion" (or what some would name as that). Maybe things are simple ? You-as a person-can be wrong. You have a "right to be wrong"...we all can get it wrong...but that should not limit vaccines, should not limit girls going to school, should not limit the right of a worker in Africa or South Americ, Asia of a decent income, healthcare, education, housing ! Inequality is one of the factors helping to create pandemics. The big motor is climate change. And most of both problems are caused by an elite making money by creating problems "we want"...(cars, airtravel etc. but the price is to high-we only have one planet.) [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; Adult hockey league outbreak in Canada. 15 sick, one dead. All fully vaccinated. Some spouses and entire families also got sick. explained back in August why ice hockey rinks are particularly dangerous. https://yorkregion.com/news-story/10505636-covid-19-sweeps-through-newmarket-men-s-hockey-league/ DJ The ice can limit ventilation so you get Inversion In the picture, ice-cooled air & the warmer air above create a thermal inversion which inhibits air flow allowing the smoke to stagnate. What happens for smoke happens for exhaled aerosols. https://ysph.yale.edu/community-education-covid-19/reopening-information/resuming-sports/risks-associated-with-indoor-ice-rinks/ Proberbly could also happen outside...Inversion, one layer of air stopping another layer of air [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inversion_(meteorology)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inversion_(meteorology) may limit ventilation outside in urban area's...Also; The rate of confirmed #SARSCoV2 infection showed a clear increase as a function of TIME from vaccination... A SIMILAR PATTERN was observed in the analysis of SEVERE #Covid19 in the group of persons 60 years of age or older." DJ, several parts of this pandemic are that predictable I do not understand "experts" pretending not to understand them (lifting restrictions is pushing R0 up, waning vaccine & natural immunity...If I can understand it you can !) Now that it's officially published in , can leading scientists & journalists please finally accept this data from Israel, stop playing dumb & do something in their own countries to decrease the spread & seriously promote boosters before it's too late? DJ Science may be even more devided then the public is...Also; New paper on 10,024 breakthrough infections shows that vaccination does not prevent #LongCovid. https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.26.21265508v1.full.pdf… So do not try to get "natural booster immunity" ! With NPIs to reduce transmission, keeping persistently high-level wouldn't be necessary. But, what happens if inoculum dose increases (during up-wave), a faster-replicating variant appears (#Delta's AYs) & time passes since vaccination/infection (waning); all at the same time? It is not "rocketscience"! Stop the spread !!!! spread=mutations=new variants=pandemic getting worse ! Sleep studies done in a small series of 11 post-acute covid patients showed REM without atonia in 4/11. This is considered a harbinger of neurodegenerative disease, such as Parkinson's. We don't see this very often when we read sleep studies. Not good. And long CoViD is a very serious problem ! "Reinfections are rare" * when we look only 3 to 9 months post-infection ** pre-Delta *** we missed most of the initial infections: most reinfections not detected **** initial infection in Sept-Oct 2020 lead to more "150 days" reinfections than earlier infections (Table 1)(why?) DJ; another myth ! SARS-1 may offer long term immunity against SARS-1, that disease was under control within a few months ! Via a twitter-link [url]https://www.independentsciencenews.org/commentaries/phylogeographic-mapping-of-newly-discovered-coronaviruses-pinpoints-direct-progenitor-of-sars-cov-2-as-originating-from-mojiang/[/url] or https://www.independentsciencenews.org/commentaries/phylogeographic-mapping-of-newly-discovered-coronaviruses-pinpoints-direct-progenitor-of-sars-cov-2-as-originating-from-mojiang/ For the horror part [url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; Umm… this seems relevant. OMG. “More than 80 percent of people with Parkinson’s disease suffer from a reduced sense of smell, something that often occurs years before the onset of typical movement-related symptoms.” DJ Do we have to expect an explosion of Parkinson, Alzheimer, linked to CoViD ????? [url]https://neurosciencenews.com/parkinsons-nose-19546/amp/[/url] or https://neurosciencenews.com/parkinsons-nose-19546/amp/ Does Parkinson start in the nose ? The CDC on Oct. 14 added “mental health conditions” to the list of #COVID19 risk factors—adding “mood disorders, including depression, and schizophrenia spectrum disorders” to get vaccinated—initial doses & boosters—& take preventive measures. DJ But if patients are not informed.... -Dr.Been [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAGGyxqv9Ss[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PAGGyxqv9Ss ; Will Covid come back with deadly outcome ? Another of his video's [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rweY_RxJzak[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rweY_RxJzak ; Covid becoming endemic ? (DJ Or is it just a word game.... Do the video's overlap ???? -Music; Sending you Good Vibrations - Beach Boys -october 1966 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0yoiBYbT2I[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B0yoiBYbT2I ...55 years old allready ! work in progres |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
HoneyBee08, I am afraid you are correct...but maybe the level of Parkinson/Alzheimer like healthissues in a younger age group-large numbers-is something we have to prepare for...And also STOP THE SPREAD !!! "Living with the virus" is insane when the virus can do so much damage !!! Carbon 20 had a link [url]https://www.newsweek.com/rare-extinct-30-covid-variant-evade-vaccine-antibodies-heavily-mutated-worried-1643396[/url] or https://www.newsweek.com/rare-extinct-30-covid-variant-evade-vaccine-antibodies-heavily-mutated-worried-1643396 on Pfizer/AZ-O evading variant. Because only 5 cases have been detected (UK, Sweden, Angola 3x) and the latest on was from june some "experts" seem to claim "the risk may be gone". Testing/sequencing is poor-even in most western countries...It is much more likely A.30 is "under the radar". Even the fact that this A.30 variant "is there" should be very alarming. Evading Pfizer, Astra Zeneca (to a high level) is evading two of the most used vaccines worldwide... But ignoring this news may be the easy way out...Just like ignoring false QR-codes-linked to vaccine passports for both EU and Russia...Countries reopening with QR-codes as "proof of vaccination" has two major errors; 1-Vaccination protects against severe disease NOT against infection/spread (enough). 2-Fraud has been seen to be widespread in using QR-codes..Certainly if there is not also control on ID (wich you should not want a restaurant, festival, cinema etc to do). Going back to "social distancing" for ALL would be a much better, wiser alternative...But still we also started travel again, based on QR codes...spreading variants...Why do "we" not learn a thing ??? -Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ showing a global reported 476,724 new cases, trend +3%. Deaths 7,867 trend went up to +5% !!! The total number of deaths at worldometers is now (as I look) 4,996,480-so we will see the 5 million deaths today... The reason-in statistics-deaths going up this fast is with India deaths going +237 % !!!! (Last week 1,229 - this week 4,145). Are they "correcting numbers" . India claiming still 327 deaths per million (dpm)-global average 640,9 and US has 2,290 dpm, Brazil 2,830... India is believed to have had maybe up to 5 million people dying from the Delta explosion april this year and further...Still the official number of deaths for India is 457,221...proberbly 10% of any real number... Global cases +3%, deaths +5% at this moment is "bad" !!! India, China, the EU, US, UK, but also Brazil, Chile have +50% of the adults vaccinated by now. In India over 100 million only took one vaccination...Over 30% of the global population may have had some form of vaccine...and then cases going up again... Countries; 1-US new cases going down to 78,460 (-8%)...booster vaccinations and also vaccinating 12-18 y/o may show to have some effects...Yet the 18+ group that did refuse vaccines still-for the most is NOT taking the vaccines...While the decrease of cases may be slowing down. Winter is on its way, proberbly with AY.4.2/Delta+. Coinfection with (H3N2) flu will increase the number of deaths. That number is still very high in the US-yesterday did see another 1,208 US deaths - trend -24% (but again from extremely high to still very high) on a weekly basis. 2-Russia reporting 40,096 cases, 1,159 deaths...Cases +10%, deaths +8%. Russia may take over the #1 position from the US. In fact in new deaths per million of the population it allready did...The Russian government is now getting more active...a week pause-wich some Russians seem to see as a chance to go on a trip, family visit...Allthough ICU/hospitals in crisis-news within family/friends of CoViD cases seem to speed up vaccinations (with 3 Russian vaccines..a lot of Russians would welcome more choices). 3-The UK is #3 for new cases 39,842 trend -9%...Vaccines may go up, schoolholliday may help...UK politics still divided over plan "B" with more NPI...UK deaths 165 yesterday, #10 in the list of most deaths. UK trend there is +16%... India reported 803 deaths, trend (again) +237% !!!! In new cases India is at #8 with 14,323 new cases being reported-just showing an almost lack of testing...population of India is 1,4 billion ! India cases weekly trend -3% (for what it is worth...) In new cases Germany now #4-26,610 new cases, trend +33%...German deaths 122, trend -26%. Ukraine #5 with 26,071 cases, +44%, deaths 576, +55%... And then the winter still has to start..we are just on october 29... -Flutrackers etc. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926588-looming-syringe-crisis-threatens-covid-19-vaccine-efforts-in-africa[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926588-looming-syringe-crisis-threatens-covid-19-vaccine-efforts-in-africa ; The World Health Organization has issued a warning over a looming syringe shortage that could threaten the already struggling efforts to vaccinate populations across the African continent for COVID-19. DJ, This shortage will also hamper other vaccination campains (polio, measles, etc). All of Africa yesterday reported 5,005 new cases, 199 deaths...Testing is a very major problem in Africa-we may only see a small % of any real(istic) numbers.. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926586-how-worried-we-should-be-by-a-30-variant-that-can-evade-vaccines[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926586-how-worried-we-should-be-by-a-30-variant-that-can-evade-vaccines ; A team of scientists in Germany has warned that an old COVID variant called A.30 has resistance to the Pfizer and AstraZeneca COVID vaccines. DJ As discussed above and in latest news...See also the info on Africa above this story...Africa is hardly doing any testing... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/-2019-ncov-who-chp-wpro-ecdc-oie-fao-moa-reports-and-updates/926585-who-is-now-closely-tracking-a-delta-subvariant-found-in-42-countries-to-see-if-it%E2%80%99s-more-transmissible[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/-2019-ncov-who-chp-wpro-ecdc-oie-fao-moa-reports-and-updates/926585-who-is-now-closely-tracking-a-delta-subvariant-found-in-42-countries-to-see-if-it%E2%80%99s-more-transmissible ; The World Health Organization is now closely tracking a subvariant of the delta variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 to evaluate whether it is more infectious than the original delta. DJ It is good to see main-street media end of october reacting to news from early this month...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected now has 43 countries (Israel now also reporting 1 case). Is AY.4.2 decreasing ???? Did it transform into another subvariant ? Lack of sequencing ???? Real numbers must be higher..I think... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926584-coronavirus-traces-of-mu-variant-found-in-altamonte-springs-wastewater-florida[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926584-coronavirus-traces-of-mu-variant-found-in-altamonte-springs-wastewater-florida ; The Mu Variant of the COVID-19 virus has been found in the wastewater in Altamonte Springs. DJ; "Mu" in wastewater = "Mu" spreading. Sewage/waste water give early indications of what to see in PCR (etc) testing later on in hosts...Not good news ! [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Mu_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Mu_variant ; The WHO said the variant has mutations that indicate a risk of resistance to the current vaccines and stressed that further studies were needed to better understand it.[2][3] Outbreaks of the Mu variant were reported in South America and Europe.[4] The B.1.621 lineage has a sublineage, labeled B.1.621.1 under the PANGO nomenclature, which has already been detected in more than 20 countries worldwide. DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Mu_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Mu_variant#Statistics has "Mu" in 77 countries...US has 5,772 detections of this variant...If "Mu" is able to find a way to spread with Delta/Delta+ being dominant that should be very alarming ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926583-cidrap-less-than-a-third-of-us-parents-eager-to-vaccinate-young-kids-against-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926583-cidrap-less-than-a-third-of-us-parents-eager-to-vaccinate-young-kids-against-covid-19 ; Only 27% of parents in the latest poll from the Kaiser Family Foundation said they were eager to get their young children vaccinated against COVID-19 if the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) authorize the use of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in children ages 5 to 11. DJ-So if there would be no major long term safety concern from this vaccine for children 5-11 y/o better communications do help. A lot of parents are willing to get their children/babies vaccinated for all kind of other diseases...Fear of vaccines may become a risk in itself... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926579-cidrap-covid-19-scan-promising-new-covid-19-monoclonal-antibody-waning-covid-vaccine-protection-meatpackers-covid-19-cases-deaths[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926579-cidrap-covid-19-scan-promising-new-covid-19-monoclonal-antibody-waning-covid-vaccine-protection-meatpackers-covid-19-cases-deaths ; The monoclonal antibody sotrovimab reduced the risk of hospitalization or death from COVID-19 by 85% compared with placebo, according to an interim analysis of a phase 3 clinical trial published yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine. Patients were recruited from Aug 27, 2020, and followed through Mar 4, 2021, and more than 60% were Hispanic or Latino—a population the investigators note has been underrepresented in COVID-19 clinical trials. DJ; Very welcome news ! If we find better ways to limit damage after infection "living with the virus" may become a lesser disaster...Some anti depressive drug-wide used-also showed anti-inflamatory effects...Some still mention Ivermectin...If it works-great !!! Also from the link ; In another study published yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine, Israeli researchers reported further evidence of waning effectiveness of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine against the more transmissible Delta (B1617.2) variant. - The rate of confirmed infection showed a clear increase as the time from vaccination increased for all age-groups. Among people age 60 and older, the rate of infection from Jul 11 to 31 was higher for those who were fully vaccinated in January 2021 than for those vaccinated in March 2021 (rate ratio, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.3 to 2.0). Among people ages 40 to 59, the rate of infection was 1.7 (95% CI, 1.4 to 2.1) times higher for those fully vaccinated in February compared with those fully vaccinated in April. For the age 16-to-39 group, the rate of infection was 1.6 (95% CI, 1.3 to 2.0) times higher for those fully vaccinated in March compared with those vaccinated in May. Among fully vaccinated people ages 60 and older and 40 to 59, the rate ratios for severe disease were 1.8 (95% CI, 1.1 to 2.9) and 2.2 (95% CI, 0.6 to 7.7), respectively, for those fully vaccinated in January or February compared with those vaccinated in March. The rate ratio could not be calculated for those ages 16 to 39, given the small number of severe cases in this group. DJ-That is why Israel went for booster vaccines resulting in cases -39%, deaths -33% (last week 64, this week 43). Also from the link; Committee: Meatpackers' COVID-19 cases much higher than reported It will not have been that different in most other countries... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/926593-public-trust-in-government-near-historic-lows[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/926593-public-trust-in-government-near-historic-lows ; Public trust in government remains low. Only about one-quarter of Americans say they can trust the government in Washington to do what is right “just about always” (2%) or “most of the time” (22%). DJ-Not that much better in most other countries. Government dealing with crises resulting crises getting worse (and some politicians/sponsors getting rich) does not help... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926571-cidrap-merck-to-allow-other-nations-to-produce-new-covid-19-antiviral[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926571-cidrap-merck-to-allow-other-nations-to-produce-new-covid-19-antiviral ; Merck and the United Nations–based Medicines Patent Pool (MPP) today announced a licensing deal that will allow pharmaceutical companies in other countries to make molnupiravir—an investigational antiviral to treat COVID-19—a step that would ease access in low- and middle-income countries. - MSF says agreement too limiting DJ-It sounds like "welcome good news" but if in practice only countries that do not have pharma capacity are allowed to produce Molnupiravir then it may be "empty words" again...Still it is good some treatments can limit damage ! Related; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926569-cidrap-antidepressant-cuts-covid-19-hospital-cases-30-to-65[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926569-cidrap-antidepressant-cuts-covid-19-hospital-cases-30-to-65 ; The inexpensive antidepressant fluvoxamine reduced the need for a long emergency department (ED) observation or a hospital stay among high-risk, symptomatic COVID-19 outpatients treated within 7 days of symptom onset as much as 30% to 65%, finds a Brazilian platform clinical trial yesterday in The Lancet Global Health. The study was part of the ongoing TOGETHER trial, which has evaluated eight possible COVID-19 treatments (eg, lopinavir-ritonavir, metformin). The fluvoxamine arm was stopped early because preliminary results showed that it was more effective than placebo. - Patients who took all doses saw a 65% lower risk - In a news release from McMaster University in Ontario, senior author Edward Mills, PhD, a McMaster researcher, said of the drug, "It could be one of our most powerful weapons against the virus, and its effectiveness is one of the most important discoveries we have made since the pandemic began." He called it a "massive boon to public health." - In a commentary in the same journal, Otavio Berwanger, MD, PhD, of Hospital Israelita Albert Einstein in Sao Paolo, said that questions remain as to the effectiveness and safety of fluvoxamine in terms of death and hospitalization rates and whether it has an additive effect on other COVID-19 therapies, such as monoclonal antibodies. DJ; There are several of these kinds of studies (Israel also had one resulting in 8 medications that may "show limiting effects"). Using allready existing medication in treatment of CoViD-patients and getting good results is very welcome ! These kind of findings may (maybe) offer some hope for Long CoViD cases as well ???? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/926553-denmark-ssi-covid-cases-jump-73-in-epi-week-42[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/926553-denmark-ssi-covid-cases-jump-73-in-epi-week-42 ; Joining these growing ranks, Denmark's SSI (Staten Serum Institut) today announced a 73% jump in COVID cases over the past week. Denmark - much like Singapore - has a high vaccination rate. The increase over the autumn holidays means that the incidence has increased to 148 covid-19 cases per 100,000 Danes. At the same time, the proportion of positive tests has grown from 1.6% to 2.2%, despite the fact that test activity has increased. Although there has been some media speculation that a new variant (possibly AY.4.2) may be behind these recent surges, I haven't seen any solid evidence to that effect. Hopefully we'll get better data soon. Breakthrough infections - particularly among the elderly - are cited as a major factor in Denmark's surge, and that may simply come down to the vaccine's waning effectiveness over time (see Denmark SSI: Increased Breakthrough Infections With Delta Variant). Whatever the root cause, the abandonment of NPIs (face masks, social distancing, etc.) by many over the summer has certainly exacerbated the situation. Denmark, Singapore, and the UK all decided to rollback most COVID restrictions over the summer, and all three are now seeing large increases in cases. DJ Again, Denmark, Germany are in the list of good healthcare, lots of testing, vaccines countries. Lifting NPI may be a factor-starting to late with boosters another...Chile has also a lot of vaccines...now moving into summer but cases +23%, deaths +39% is very alarming !!! DJ-Vaccines are NOT perfect-they never were...but without vaccines our situation would be far worse...not only for CoViD but in general ! Some twitter; [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; If we have a National test policy that differs by vaccination status - such that the CDC put out stating to not test once vaccinated, then regardless of the biology, policy will drive detected cases down among vaccinated, regardless of whether they are truly lower. DJ If you do never test vaccinated you get 100% succes.... (tech-problem-everything below this is gone... So a few major points
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, Twitter has a lot of very good info...but its links may ruin the lay-out of the page...Have to find something for that when providing links/sharing info... One of the shifts I notice following this pandemic since it started is that info is "moving away" from the "official news media". Just like with climate collapse there is a "political story" and reality...Even prof. Tim Spector/ZOE-UK notices the gap between UK government story on numbers, symptoms and his group at ZOE-app resulting in other symptoms, much higher numbers... Also as a background [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/29/dutch-tax-authorities-seriously-violated-gdpr-privacy-law-blacklist-data-protection[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/29/dutch-tax-authorities-seriously-violated-gdpr-privacy-law-blacklist-data-protection ; DJ Here in NL over 270,000 people were treated like they did fraud with finances-often based on nothing more then info from neighbours, ex-partners etc... Since they were on the Tax-office list they sometimes even had problems in getting a phone... This scandal comes on top of other scandals...Again with Dutch government being responsible the lives of (tens of) thousends of people...Not knowing how to deal with a pandemic, climate collapse is just part of failing politics. Making complex rules is not wise...keep it simple...limit the rules to those you can control. -Numbers; (In the UK both ZOE and ONS numbers are going up-93,000 cases per day...Also for other countries statistics may show lots of differences...I use worldometer that is using most government numbers...but there is a growing gap in numbers...see also Dr. J.C. at the end of this update). With [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ as a basis I try to keep an eye on global developments. Global cases yesterday 469,842, deaths 7,613, trends for cases +3%, deaths +4%. Cases top 3; #1=US with 80,469 (-6%), #2=UK 43,467 (-12%), #3=Russia 39,849 (+9%)... DJ US may soon see increase of cases again; limited vaccinations, restrictions are a major problem in many countries. The UK did start vaccinating younger age groups and boosters for the elderly. The US is also-with limits-starting to do so. But the US problem is there is a high % that may not get vaccinated for lots of reasons...From distrust in government based on a dark racist past in blacks/hispanics, "God will decide"-religious groups to anti-vaccines... In Western Europe these groups may be smaller then in the US-resulting in a higher level of vaccinations. But if vaccinating 90% of ALL of the population is seen as a safety limit we will not get there here in Europe as well. In Russia trust in government and vaccines is (also) low...Maybe in Russia more people will get vaccinated due to the health care again collapsing... At present Europe is the only region with cases increasing (+14%). South America trend now -0,7% for cases. North America -8%, Asia -7%, Africa -6%, Oceania -11% for cases...Still the +14% in Europe is large enough to translate to 3%+ worldwide global cases increase. The number of deaths went over 5 million in the statistics...We may even see 6 million before january 2022. September 10-2020 we did reach 1 million deaths, january 6 2021 it went to 2 million, april 6 did see 3 million, july 3 bring 4 million, october 29 5 million...About 118 days for 2 million, 90 days to 3 millions,88 days to get to 4 million and the step to 5 million did take (about) 118 days...so vaccines and (northern) summer did slow down that number... The AY.4.2 Delta subvariant is getting less detected [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected wich only means other (sub)variants are increasing...no doubt better in evading immunity (since immunity increased selection for mutations that evade such immunity (vaccine/natural) results in more immunity evading (sub) variants...On twitter I did see a post on some agencies trying to follow over 30 (sub) variants... My goal with scenario's is to see where this pandemic is going. Vaccines AND restrictions may have stopped it for some time...Going for restrictions again after ignoring warnings that only vaccines can not stop Delta is "pushing the brakes after the crash"... Yes booster vaccines, more vaccines for younger age-groups AND much more restrictions do help...but this pandemic is an ongoing proces. Mutations did not stop...We are still sinking deeper in the mud... "Living with the virus", herd-immunity, ignores the virus is keeping mutating high speed. "It will get milder" is wishfull thinking...why should it ? As long as the virus can find hosts to reproduce itself in the virus will not stop... STOP THE SPREAD !!! So virus has less chance to find new hosts...But "that is damaging the economy"...the present worsening pandemic is a better alternative ? It is "only killing those people that are a burden to society"...dead wood...So that is okay ? Old people, people with chronic health issues have to die ? I believe the nazi's lost power in may 1945...but I may be wrong here...Besides that it is also incorrect. Delta is a growing risk for all age groups. So far no major non-human CoViD pandemic yet...but following the news on cat-like zoo animals, apes, we may be moving in that direction...The species-barrier is broken many times... As long as politics/media and due to that the main public do not take risks serious risks increase... -Flutrackers [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926656-biden-delays-the-release-of-remaining-jfk-assassination-records-citing-the-pandemic[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926656-biden-delays-the-release-of-remaining-jfk-assassination-records-citing-the-pandemic and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926654-people-injured-by-many-vaccines-are-covered-by-a-generous-government-program-but-covid-19-injuries-fall-under-a-different-stingier-program[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926654-people-injured-by-many-vaccines-are-covered-by-a-generous-government-program-but-covid-19-injuries-fall-under-a-different-stingier-program DJ-How can the public trust a government that keeps hiding documents on a President being murdered over 50 years ago...A government that claim CoViD vaccines "are safe" but still you can not get compensation when things go wrong...(Political crisis) [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926647-cidrap-covid-19-vaccine-gives-5-times-the-protection-of-natural-immunity-data-show[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926647-cidrap-covid-19-vaccine-gives-5-times-the-protection-of-natural-immunity-data-show ; US adults who previously had COVID-19 contracted the disease at more than five times the rate of those who were fully vaccinated, according to data published today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR). - Daily cases near 100,000 DJ Immunity is complex...age is a factor, but also new variants can undo immunity against older variants... (Are John Hopkins numbers that different from worldometers ???) [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926643-cidrap-covid-vaccines-protect-against-delta-but-don-t-fully-stop-disease-spread[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926643-cidrap-covid-vaccines-protect-against-delta-but-don-t-fully-stop-disease-spread ; While COVID-19 vaccines lower the likelihood of infection with the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta (B1617.2) variant, the virus can still be transmitted within households—but less so than among unvaccinated people—a study today in The Lancet Infectious Diseases finds. - Average viral load also declined faster in fully vaccinated participants infected with the Delta variant than among unvaccinated participants infected with pre-Alpha (B117), Alpha, or Delta variants. DJ, Vaccines limit risks for severe disease but also for infection/spreading the virus. On e problem with these kind of retrospective studies is how to translate them for the short term future with virusses mutating high speed....I think-as an opinion-that there is a tendency towards more immunity evasion...Again underlining ; STOP THE SPREAD !!! Why mega (sports) events, international (air)travel etc. are that urgent ? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/926601-j-clin-invest-the-intersection-of-covid-19-and-autoimmunity[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/926601-j-clin-invest-the-intersection-of-covid-19-and-autoimmunity DJ People with auto-immune disease can get more severe healthissues after catching CoViD...But also CoViD can result in all kind of auto-immune diseases... [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; I’m all for optimism but optimism at the expense of facts is delusion. One also wonders how such public, loud optimism may have influenced people’s risk tolerance and spurred the very behaviors that resulted in that prediction being wrong. DJ I try to get a realistic view here in scenario's...Of course I would love it when this pandemic would be history by now...but it is not...also for several reasons. -Dr. John Campbell with an overview. [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Hfq9gBkwBE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Hfq9gBkwBE Good info/links...I do not always share his views...but I do not have to do so...(Info under the video) Lots of info/questions also in yesterdays ZOE/prof. Tim Spector video... Music; Linda Ronstadt - Desperado - 1977 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MeQyoTIQOOM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MeQyoTIQOOM |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, I still get this story in phone-format....Do not know if that is a problem ? -A look at numbers/trends [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ showing global cases +1%, deaths +4% ....UK cases would be going down -14% while UK-ONS (Office of National Statistics) and ZOE-tracker app both report increase of cases...to over 90,000 per day...Worldometer using government numbers...With UK "bojo" living in "his own reality" claiming as good as the pandemic is over...lets put more tax money into the economy... US cases -12% while (a.o. Dr. J.C.) other sources then worldometers report US cases starting to increase...Weekend testing may not give the right info...weekly numbers may take more time... Russia has cases still going up at an allready high level +8%. Gemany cases +65% !!!! Belgium +49%, NL +48%...there is a new wave starting but statistics may not always get the right numbers yet... Just like in the "climate discussion" word games become dominant. Redefining "cases" as only symptomatic cases, while also decreasing testing will reduce finding of cases so "this pandemic comes endemic"...and "we have to live with over 10,000 deaths per day as "a new normal"... Europe again the only "region" in wich both cases +12% and deaths +15% go up. South America had increase of cases now at -2% (deaths at -7%). North America cases -13%, deaths -20%. It would be good news if it is real news... Israel cases -35% show booster vaccines do help to reduce cases. Vaccinating younger age groups and boosters for more vulnarable groups also help. But without further restrictions it may turn out-again-to be just buying time... For that matter it is still "a race" between vaccines and variants....Vaccines could be helped with restrictions, masks etc. Total reported cases worldwide at 383,922, deaths at 5,973...UK reporting 41,278 new cases (166 deaths) at #1, Russia at #2 with 40,251 new reported cases...Russian deaths at #1 with 1,160. I have very serious questions with numbers from India, Pakistan, Brazil, Africa...Again-statistics do not give much more then a hint... -Flutrackers etc. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/926731-why-walmart%E2%80%99s-low-price-insulin-is-a-major-milestone[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/926731-why-walmart%E2%80%99s-low-price-insulin-is-a-major-milestone ; This new price point may be as lifesaving for diabetes patients as the drug itself By Aspen Pflughoeft@AspenPflughoeft Jun 29, 2021, 12:27pm MDT Walmart’s “everyday low price” has made groceries affordable and — as of Tuesday — has now made insulin more affordable. The nation’s largest grocer announced Tuesday that it would begin selling a private brand of insulin at a significantly lower cost than competing brands, reports CNBC.
In recent years, a growing number of Americans have been diagnosed with diabetes. Demand for insulin has increased while prices have skyrocketed, says CNBC.
DJ, Yes cheaper medication does save lives ! But prevention may save even more lives ! We have to change the way we live ! Prevent getting ill in the first place-by cleaner air, less cars, less meat (with antibiotics), less micro-plastics in drinking water... Maybe less Walmart would be better for public health ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/926710-needle-points-why-so-many-are-hesitant-to-get-the-covid-vaccine-and-what-we-can-do-about-it[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/926710-needle-points-why-so-many-are-hesitant-to-get-the-covid-vaccine-and-what-we-can-do-about-it ; Since my days in medical school, I have had a fascination with the kernel insight behind vaccination: that one could successfully expose a person to an attenuated version of a microbe that would prepare and protect them for a potentially lethal encounter with the actual microbe. I marveled at how it tutors an immune system that, like the brain, has memory and a kind of intelligence, and even something akin to “foresight.” But I loved it for a broader reason too. At times modern science and modern medicine seem based on a fantasy that imagines the role of medicine is to conquer nature, as though we can wage a war against all microbes with “antimicrobials” to create a world where we will no longer suffer from infectious disease. Vaccination is not based on that sterile vision but its opposite; it works with our educable immune system, which evolved millions of years ago to deal with the fact that we must always coexist with microbes; it helps us to use our own resources to protect ourselves. Doing so is in accord with the essential insight of Hippocrates, who understood that the major part of healing comes from within, that it is best to work with nature and not against it. DJ; Vaccination by a lump of suger+vaccine, a pill, nasal spray "dressed as medication" would maybe be more acceptable for some. Some religious group claim disease "is the work of divine power"...but are willing to use medication...For others needles (fear for it) may be the problem...For the short term vaccinations will have to do a main job in "living with the virus"...even when it is only buying time... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/other-diseases-ac/926721-netherlands-avian-influenza-detected-on-a-poultry-farm-in-grouchermer[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/other-diseases-ac/926721-netherlands-avian-influenza-detected-on-a-poultry-farm-in-grouchermer ; In Grouchermer (Alkmaar municipality, North Holland province) avian influenza (H5) was diagnosed on a poultry farm with broilers. It is likely to be a highly contagious type of bird flu. To prevent the spread of the virus, the company is being excluded. This concerns about 107,000 animals. The certification is carried out by the Dutch Consumer Product and Food Safety Authority (NVWA). DJ-Not unusual news this time of year...Still a few remarks; 1-If keeping animals on a large scale has high pandemic risks should we not be doing more to reduce "animal-farms"? 2-One way of "government action" could be increasing tax on meat. Part of that tax could be used for farmers to move to other kinds of plant-based food production...like we also see in energy. 3-Anti-biotics in meat create multi-resistent bacteria. If you still want some meat production then try to go for "high quality-good lives for animals" kind of production...We can not replace eggs in food production in just a few years...(just like we may not be able to totally ban fossil energy in just a few years). But we at least could make a start, plans... twitter; [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; And here's the current situation by continents. Europe still surging out of control, while North America slowing the decrease. These two continents rarely had a #SARS2 divergence this big. And it lasted two months already. DJ, There may be less travel, checking during travel may stop variants (like AY.4.2...still a lot of ? on this Delta sub-variant). Also a mention of China cases going up...trends +71% with 213 cases reported last week 365 this week-and China definition of cases=with symptoms. If airborne was acknowledged as a key pathway leading to the spread of this virus from the beginning, and indoor air was filtered and masks were used, I believe we could have averted this global pandemic. The ones continuing to fight the facts are the ones keeping it going. (2/2) DJ, All of this pandemic could have been prevented..it should not be this way...That is what I hate most..."leaders" not able to learn anything "saving the economy"... U.S. COVID update: Early signs that daily cases are no longer declining - New cases: 33,284 - Average: 72,353 (+282) - In hospital: 48,096 (-471) - In ICU: 13,108 (-189) - New deaths: 350 - Average: 1,376 (-13) More data: https://newsnodes.com/us DJ, I would "love it" (almost) if only European cases would go up but I do not believe that is the real picture....also; Asia & South America are bottoming. Last year around this time, they made their temporary lows in cases & deaths. Whatever happens next (some countries like Vietnam & Chile already started a new wave), their progress during last several months was unexpectedly impressive. DJ, most health agencies did expect numbers to go up during autumn/fall and winter...But cases going up from an allready high level...also in countries with over 80% of all the population vaccinated (Portugal cases +3%, deaths -34%, Denmark cases +60%, deaths -6%) is bad news...we have still several months till spring...and numbers are very bad allready ! Global cases are above the global low numbers from march and june this year... [url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; BoJo tricked people thinking the pandemic is over with his freedom day propaganda. Now people are dying because of it. DJ; the mix of government/politics and some "experts" like we also see in the climate collapse story is resulting in "fake science" used by criminal politicians "saving the economy"... -Dr. John Campbell on anti-depressant (cheap medication 4 US$) reducing infection-risks [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrYj5VJKLIs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qrYj5VJKLIs Good news ; The absolute number of serious adverse events associated with fluvoxamine was lower than for placebo this might reflect the modulatory effect of fluvoxamine on systemic inflammation Mechanism? Anti-inflammatory Preventing cytokine storm Antiplatelet activity Increasing plasma levels of melatonin It is now crucial to establish whether a class effect exists? Interactions with vaccines, improved effect? DJ Cheap, safe, easy to produce medication could save millions of lives !!! -Music; There Is A Ghost In My House - R. Dean Taylor [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HstnfzyN8E[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HstnfzyN8E Happy Haloween ! work in progres |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Worldometer's 7-day moving average shows a small bounce up in both numbers of cases and deaths. It looks like the improvement from the last wave (Delta) has stopped, but it is too early to call a new wave or if this is just random movement, |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ would now indicate global cases going down a little...weekly trend -0,4%. Deaths still +2%.. In official UK numbers UK cases going down -13%...[url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map earlier did report 93,000+ new cases...also there UK cases going down somewhat (but more like -2% then 13%). Still global cases at 327,243 and 4,595 deaths being reported. A top 3 for cases; 1, Russia reporting 40,993 cases (+9%), deaths 1,158 ( also weekly trend +9%) 2, UK 38,009 (-13%), deaths 74 (+16%) 3, Turkey 23,948 (-8%), deaths 201 (+1%) Russia would also be #1 for reported deaths, Romania #2 at 394 (+5% still) and Ukraine #3 with 336 (+19%) reported. So what to think of numbers ? Europe is the only region in wich both cases (+10%) and deaths (+14%) are going up. Some countries in other regions new cases also going up fast; Paraguay +64%, Uruguay +59%, Bolivia +20%, Chile, Colombia +19% in South America. In Asia China cases also up 67% (from 236 to 393 still very low numbers..). South Korea +35%, Vietnam, Laos both +29%, Qatar +24%. In Oceania New Zealand cases +22%, Australia -23%, Papua New Guinea -25%.. US cases -15%, India cases -11%, Brazil -5%.. Are we moving into yet another global pandemic wave or not ? DJ-I think we are...booster vaccines, increasing vaccinating younger age groups may slow the proces down. Also a level of some form of natural immunity-for the short term-may make some difference. Several countries are going back to new restrictions-often within a month after "reopening"("freedom-blagh blagh")... Of course I would love this pandemic to be over ! But the WHO, ECDC, lots of experts did warn we needed BOTH vaccines AND restrictions...only to be ignored by politics and embedded experts/media... On the other hand both better experts and media start to speak up...this pandemic was avoidable, other choices should have been made...Saving the economy did harm the economy... Last week 47,685 global CoViD deaths were reported, this week it was 48,560 trend +2%...the real numbers must be much higher...But 8,000 per day is still 0,8 million after 100 days....Not a number one "should live with" in my opinion ! -Flutrackers etc. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925006-us-cdc-covid-data-tracker-weekly-review-2021-2022-season-for-trend-analysis-only?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925006-us-cdc-covid-data-tracker-weekly-review-2021-2022-season-for-trend-analysis-only?view=stream latest DJ US CDC numbers cases -7,4%, deaths -9,4% on a weekly basis from october 27...Worldometers has different numbers but also includes Guam, US Samoa etc...still it does not fully explain the differences... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aj/925260-us-fluview-weekly-surveillance-flu-report-2021-2022-season-for-trend-analysis?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aj/925260-us-fluview-weekly-surveillance-flu-report-2021-2022-season-for-trend-analysis?view=stream latest, DJ Also in the US flu numbers are still low...A-H3N2 may be the variant to watch...Combination of CoViD with Flu will bring more severe disease...(Europe will also have a similar report). [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926123-germany-records-highest-daily-covid-19-infections-since-mid-may[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926123-germany-records-highest-daily-covid-19-infections-since-mid-may ; Germany recorded the highest incidence of coronavirus infections since mid-May on Saturday, reaching the threshold of 100 cases per 100,000 in the past seven days that used to be the yardstick for imposing a strict lockdown. DJ Vaccines are supposed to make the major difference...and it does for severe/hospital/ICU cases ! But not enough for stopping the spread... twitter; [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; This is a comforting notion that #Delta can be defeated & controlled. South Africa & several other countries returned it to baseline like previous variants. Although, it's definitely stickier & more prolonged, as witnessed by that smaller secondary wave bump. DJ If countries we keep poor did find other ways to keep numbers down they may show more wisdom then many western "leaders".... From [url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] Wow- 1 in 4 infected with COVID do NOT develop antibodies! There goes natural immunity strategy — it’s not reliable! Hence get #vaccinated! DJ, There are major differences in how immunity works out...No or mild symptoms, older age, may provide less natural immunity...But also in the vaccinated there may be big differences... Related countries differ on how old vaccination can be to allow entry; Israel does not consider someone vaccinated if the last vaccination was over 180 days ago. Some European countries go for 270 or 360 days...So boosters will become a new normal... -Dr. John Campbell also on people getting ill/die AFTER (fully) vaccination [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOyB2PyRf-k[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vOyB2PyRf-k ; 54 were fully vaccinated Among the 54 25 (46%) patients were asymptomatic 4 (7%) had mild disease 11 (20%) had moderate disease 14 (26%) had severe or critical illness 4 (7%) required ICU 1 required ventilation 3 died Among those with severe or critical illness Median age 80·5 years Pre-existing comorbidities in the 14 patients with severe or critical illness Body–mass index more than 25 kg/m² (n=9) Cardiovascular disease (n=12) Lung disease (n=7) Malignancy (n=4) Type 2 diabetes (n=7) Immunosuppressive agent (n=4) Difference between vaccines 13 of 14 patients had received BNT162b2, Pfizer 1 of the 14 had received mRNA-1273, Moderna 0 of the 14 had received Ad.26. COV2.S, J and J Patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection Yale New Haven Health System, Connecticut Between March 23 and July 1, 2021 DJ The impact of Delta, Delta+ (AY.4.2) is not included in these numbers...So in my opinion this retrospective study should not be translated to what to expect in the coming months...Yes-in general vaccines still do a very good job against severe disease...but (again) not against infection/spread of the virus... Pfizer/Moderna may offer reasonable protection against severe disease for 6/8 months...depending a.o. on age, health, but also on the level of vaccinations in "your area"...If a lot of people did get vaccinated recently you will have much better protection then when most of the people did get vaccinated over half a year ago (certainly if they had J&J/Janssen). So I think Dr.J.C. did show "facts" but the interpretation of these findings is open for debate ! -Music; The 13 minutes+ of Thriller - Michael Jackson [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOnqjkJTMaA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOnqjkJTMaA ...halloween afterparty E N J O Y........ |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, Let me start by some twitter from [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; In London, AY.43 increased slightly faster than AY.4.2, AY.46.5 at about the same as AY.4.2. Possibly because London is an international travel hub. One would estimate several dozens of new cases from these two lineages. AY.4.2 grew at a slightly lower rate than elsewhere. and Also, at the grand scheme of things, changes on the scale of 1-3% growth per day have been common over the past year. These are much unlike the jumps by Alpha (9%) and Delta (11% over Alpha), which dramatically altered the course of the pandemic. /// and For the right context, let's take a look at the spread of all AY lineages. The fastest growing lineage continues to be AY.4.2, which is 3% [2-5%] faster per day than AY.4 (which was perhaps 3% faster than initial Delta). Note I'm using daily growth rates r here, R0 is over ~5d. DJ...We are at over 50 Delta sub-variants by now...Even the best testing/sequencing may have a problem with that. And we are not doing enough testing...most (mild/asymptomatic) cases will be missed while spreading a mutating virus... A look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ numbers underlines the difficulty in keeping an eye on developments; global cases and deaths now both at +2%. The decrease in cases may have been related more to (not) reporting cases, not testing (school holiday) etc... US cases now only -4% may be one of the reasons statistics could provide an incorrect picture...Germany cases +73% may be a more realistic number for this month...Even with restrictions/vaccinations cases still going up.... Total reported number of cases 344,132, deaths 5,009 Top 3 cases; #1, US with 48,839 cases, 550 deaths, #2, Russia 40,402 cases, 1,155 deaths, #3, UK 40,077 cases, 40 deaths Romania reporting 311 deaths, Bulgaria 310, Ukraine 298 make the "deaths top 5"...India only reporting 202 new cases, no deaths puts a big ? on the global statistics...but it is all we have... -Flutrackers etc. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926813-colorado-hits-80-vaccine-rate-with-hospitals-in-covid-19-crisis[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926813-colorado-hits-80-vaccine-rate-with-hospitals-in-covid-19-crisis ; Eighty percent of Colorado residents have received at least one Covid-19 vaccination, Governor Jared Polis announced Monday, while warning surging infections among the unvaccinated are bringing the state closer to rationing hospital care “in the next few days.”.. DJ Inside many countries very major regional differences...on top of that most of this pandemic there was a relation with US numbers and Europe/UK numbers...somehow that link is missing...Do travelrestrictions have enough effect in spreading variants ? Does the US has its own variants stopping those from Europe, UK etc? Also the global healthcare situation keeps getting worse. Proberbly over 1% of HCW-ers in the world may have died (WHO numbers between 80,000 and 180,000...). A lot of HCW-ers did not have that much trouble to find 9-to-5 jobs with better pay outside healthcare-much lower risk...Again underlining the political disaster... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926732-fluvoxamine-an-effective-treatment-for-covid-19-a-collection-of-studies-and-news?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926732-fluvoxamine-an-effective-treatment-for-covid-19-a-collection-of-studies-and-news?view=stream DJ-Discussion on anti-depressive drugs and the use in limiting CoViD. Also a lot of bird flu spread around Europe, Asia...but we may see that as "normal" by now... More from [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; Minnesota had 787k cases (13.9% of the 5.6m population), so 8184 reinfections would make a little above 1%. That aligns with several other surveys also reporting circa 1%. It may seem little but if extrapolated to the whole US, it would imply 487k reinfections by now already. DJ, Here in NL "government" will increase vaccine passports, masks...because after end of september-as expected-cases went out of control...(they never learn). Vaccines do NOT offer enough protection against infection, spreading the virus...certainly when a "supposed to be government" sticks to the idea of boosters in spring 2022... Also; It has been growing in , which could be biological advantage, or just the fact that those countries are just being hit with Delta case growth, and that's what's there? Doesn't have any spike mutations beyond Delta, and just N:Q9L that looks at all unusual. DJ; I do not fully understand this...One single mutation in Delta causing an explosion of cases the last two weeks ? [url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; the pandemic’s true death toll is **not** merely the official 5 million #COVID19 deaths, but likely ~16 million, according to the Economist. Many deaths in India and Brazil where there isn’t enough testing. But even in developed countries too. https://economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates DJ-To be honest, I think 16 million deaths is still low...Several countries in "official numbers" allready over 3,000 deaths per million of population...=0,3%. If you take 0,3% of the global 8 billion population (3x8 million) I end up at 24 million...India still claiming 'only" 328 deaths per million...The US has over 2,300 ! Brazil may be in the "same group"as India and has 2,833 deaths per million... India's total numbers matters. But looking at NL with 18,423 deaths...The real number most likely is double..The official number did not include deaths in care centers..."they died from old age".... Also deaths from Covid does not include all those who died from other healthissues but did not get the care needed in time because of CoViD...So "pandemic deaths" is higher then "CoViD deaths"...Since we did see less flu, also a decrease in some regions in traffic accidents (and in some countries the most vulnarables died in 2020 !) excess deaths may be-for some countries-LOWER then normal...statistics ! In countries "we keep poor" you are old when you reach 60...Most CoViD deaths are in the 60+ age groups-poor countries do not have that many "older people"... -I did not see a new video from Dr. John Campbell (and this site is "slow" to day...) so music : Roxy Music - 1975 - Love Is The Drug [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0n3OepDn5GU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0n3OepDn5GU |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, Yesterday our so called PM and healthminister had another pressmeeting on new restrictions in NL. In stead of taking responsibility for opening up to much to soon end of september they tend to blame the unvaccinated...We have a 85%+ level of vaccinations in NL...The problem is politics again and again ignoring science, "saving the economy", right wing populism...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/02/cabinet-expands-covid-pass-system-even-wider-expected-face-mask-rules-explained[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/02/cabinet-expands-covid-pass-system-even-wider-expected-face-mask-rules-explained This problem is in many countries...How can you expect the public to follow any rules if politics keeps failing like this... One of the basics in many countries will be QR-code-vaccination passports. The weak spot is these QR codes are shared and sold on the internet, it is not safe. But politics want to live in illusions... Friday next week there will be another pressmeeting...with more restrictions because the "new old rules" presented yesterday will have little effect. It is all a sad show... Numbers ; [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; I'll rephrase this for an additional effect. Israel boosted with a 3rd dose 44% (!) of the total population, the UK 12%, and the US 6%. Other European countries are even more behind. What have we been doing for the past three months since Israel started its booster campaign? - Belgium has not reported any COVID-19 data for 4 days in a row DJ, to little to late.... strange Belgium stopped reporting ? Also; Growth advantage and extrapolation of AY.4.2 based on Sanger Institute data in the UK (multilevel multinomial model). Based on this data AY.4.2 seems to have a ~20% growth advantage/week over AY.4 and will become dominant in the UK in December. DJ, There are allready over 60 sub-variants of Delta based on very limited testing & sequencing...Again it is out of control ! It is very likely some of these subvariants of Delta may be "getting better" in evading immunity. Certainly with booster vaccinations much to slow, a lack of other restrictions, these variants will keep increasing & mutating. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ global cases reported = 384,184 +0,4%, deaths as far as reported 6,867 +0,8% For cases #1-US 59,413 -7%, #2-Russia 39,008 +9%, #3 UK 33,865 -10% make the top 3. Turkey, Ukraine at 4 and 5. Deaths Russia at #1 with 1,178 deaths +9%, US at #2 with 1,059 deaths -19%, Ukraine at #3 with 700 reported deaths +6%.Romania and India at 4 and 5... A few other countries to watch; Israel cases +11% (5,836 last week-6,456 this week-proberbly both more restrictions and vaccinations are needed. Israel has a young population, also some groups are hard to reach...). Israel deaths last week 40, this week 43 +8%...not good ! It is very likely some Delta+ variants are spreading in Israel... China cases +76% (last week 269, this week 474-with China only counting symptomatic cases as a case). Still sticking to no new deaths...Massive testing, vaccinations, restrictions...In that way an example for the rest of the world... Let me be very clear !!!!! Even if it would take mandatory vaccinations-by force-this crisis is getting that bad I may have to support such drastic draconian step...(just an opinion by a non-expert). India cases -14%, deaths +17%...3,000 deaths last week, 3,519 this week...328 deaths per million...I do not believe India statistics... [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected giving an indication on spread of AY.4.2 last weeks of october... [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports has 151 Delta sub-variants....[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected is at 108 countries and exploding.... So, with winter and flu on its way, healthcare as good as broken, politics in the hand of lunatics....better find a safe place. This is beyond "booster vaccines".... -Flutrackers etc. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920558-us-surveillance-data-shows-white-tailed-deer-exposed-to-sars-cov-2?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920558-us-surveillance-data-shows-white-tailed-deer-exposed-to-sars-cov-2?view=stream ; Widespread Coronavirus Infection Found in Iowa Deer, New Study Says DJ See also; The geographic distribution and nesting of clusters of deer and human lineages strongly suggest multiple zooanthroponotic spillover events and deer-to-deer transmission. The discovery of sylvatic and enzootic SARS-CoV-2 transmission in deer has important implications for the ecology and long-term persistence, as well as the potential for spillover to other animals and spillback into humans. These findings highlight an urgent need for a robust and proactive One Health approach to obtaining a better understanding of the ecology and evolution of SARS-CoV-2. DJ As I warned many months ago SARS-2/CoViD-19 did break the species barrier...It allready did in minks-but that could be controlled. This april 2020-january 2021 study does NOT involve Delta variants...So the real picture proberbly is far worse....see also [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/10/articles/animals/horses/covid-in-animals-review-part-5-updated-horses/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/10/articles/animals/horses/covid-in-animals-review-part-5-updated-horses/ ; There’s limited interest in (or downright opposition to) surveillance by some, because identifying potential problems leads to having to deal with those problems. If SARS-CoV-2 was identified as a significant issue in horses, that could mean restricting movements on farms with infected horses (which a lot of people want to avoid), as well as dealing with a lot of additional concerns from the general public (including both horse owners and non-horse owners). As a result, we run into barriers to testing in situations where exposure is plausible. I’ve had multiple situations where it would have been very informative to test horses, but where owners/trainers were wary of what would happen if there was a positive result. Since some people are more wary of the impact of a positive result than the impact of the virus itself, we’ve missed out on opportunities to figure out whether there’s any risk to (or from) horses. - Beyond that, we have older studies that looked at the composition of the ace2 receptor in different animal species. Ace2 is the structure that SARS-CoV-2 uses to attach to the body’s cells. If the virus can’t attach to cells, it can’t infect them. The structure of this receptor varies between species, and that accounts (in part) for differences in species susceptibility. One study ranked the likely susceptibility of horses to SARS-CoV-2 to be equivalent to cats (specifically domestic cats and lions, both of which we know can be infected) and camels (which we also know nothing about, beyond that they are a host for another zoonotic coronavirus that causes Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV)). We have to take predictive studies like these with a (big) grain of salt, because the real world situation hasn’t always mirrored what was predicted. These studies tell me that we should pay more attention to horses and see if there’s a problem, not that a problem is likely. DJ If horses can catch CoViD19 just as easy as cats, with Delta mutating like crazy, it must be widespread in horses...maybe with no or only mild symptoms...Also [url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; Sample from April 2020 to January 2021–likely even higher now after Delta. The analysis by Penn State and Iowa researchers strongly indicates that deer are getting the virus from humans, worrying experts about a deep wild reservoir for the virus. and This is worrisome news—80% of white-tailed deer in Iowa have been #SARSCoV2 infected—animals probably are contracting the virus from humans, and then rapidly spreading it among one another. #COVID19 https://nytimes.com/2021/11/02/science/deer-covid-infection.html [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926875-cidrap-vaccine-plus-previous-infection-may-offer-enhanced-covid-19-protection[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926875-cidrap-vaccine-plus-previous-infection-may-offer-enhanced-covid-19-protection ; Two new studies in JAMA find that COVID-19 survivors who receive two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna mRNA vaccines may have stronger protection against coronavirus infection, one detailing much lower breakthrough infection rates in previously infected Qataris and one describing higher spike antibody levels among recovered US healthcare workers (HCWs). DJ-It is good the Qatar study also involved Delta...However the high speed level of Delta+ mutations and lots of reinfections earlier a.o. in Brazil, Iran should be a warning protection may be limited...STOP THE SPREAD !!! So stop the mutations=stop variants !!!! If we do NOT stop the spread the virus "wins", we may be in a never ending healthcare crisis...It does not look like "the virus" is getting "milder"...first of all there are thousends of different virusses and why should they get "mild" only give a cold ? They still have all the room to spread in hosts (both human and non-human) so there is NO !!!! selective pressure for "it" getting mild... Worse, indications are mutations do cause a higher viral load...so the infected host get much more ill-but the virus has even better ways to spread !!! Wake-up !!! a pandemic is NOT a joke !!! We need leaders not clowns... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926869-cidrap-news-scan-covid-vaccines-vs-delta-variant-screen-time-during-pandemic-cwd-appears-in-manitoba-drc-ebola-cases-rise-cdc-on-h5n6-avian-flu-threat[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926869-cidrap-news-scan-covid-vaccines-vs-delta-variant-screen-time-during-pandemic-cwd-appears-in-manitoba-drc-ebola-cases-rise-cdc-on-h5n6-avian-flu-threat ; mRNA COVID vaccines highly effective against Delta hospitalization, death DJ, Vaccines may have limited use in stopping the spread-NPI has to do that job !-still vaccines are "the best we have" in stopping severe disease...(Ivermectin may be an extra...India info indicates...but get vaccinated !) [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926863-ers-are-swamped-with-seriously-ill-patients-although-many-don%E2%80%99t-have-covid[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926863-ers-are-swamped-with-seriously-ill-patients-although-many-don%E2%80%99t-have-covid ; But now, they’re too full. Even in parts of the country where covid isn’t overwhelming the health system, patients are showing up to the ER sicker than before the pandemic, their diseases more advanced and in need of more complicated care. DJ Non-CoViD care often was stopped during a crisis, people did not want to go and get needed care out of fear for CoViD... The duration of this crisis will result in increased non-CoViD deaths...With less HCW-ers around and more work to be done...we are only at the start of this crisis ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/cdc-guidance-for-covid-19/926862-science-brief-sars-cov-2-infection-induced-and-vaccine-induced-immunity-cdc-october-29-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/cdc-guidance-for-covid-19/926862-science-brief-sars-cov-2-infection-induced-and-vaccine-induced-immunity-cdc-october-29-2021 ; Updated Oct. 29, 2021 DJ Good overview-the best proberbly one can think of...with on the background an explosion of Delta+ variants that must be a nightmare for experts... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-emerging-diseases-other-health-threats/926845-china-urges-stocking-up-ahead-of-winter-prompting-worries-online-november-2-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-emerging-diseases-other-health-threats/926845-china-urges-stocking-up-ahead-of-winter-prompting-worries-online-november-2-2021 a.o. latests; November 02, 2021 19:33 | Source: People's Daily OnlineSmall size And ; encourage families to store a certain amount of daily necessities as needed to meet the needs of daily life and emergencies; strengthen the construction of emergency delivery networks, Optimize emergency distribution centers and distribution outlets to ensure smooth and effective distribution channels; make full use of the advantages of large-scale chain commercial enterprises to ensure the normal operation of the commercial supply network during important periods and emergencies; release commodity market supply and demand and price information in a timely manner to stabilize social expectations; In the case of closed management measures for epidemic prevention and control, it is necessary to promptly announce the source, address, contact information and other information of the guaranteed supply network to meet the residents' needs for purchasing daily necessities in emergencies; strengthen the post responsibility system and strictly implement 24-hour duty and Leaders lead the shift system to ensure smooth communication; strengthen supervision and inspection, increase investigation and inspection efforts, find problems in time and take effective measures. DJ For a western country such "notice" would be very alarming. Maybe it is not that abnormol for China ? On the other hand severe weather, worsening diseases H5N6 a.o. and conflicts are major news items. Russia-Iran-China are getting ready for war with the US, UK...The international relations are getting worse each day (with also a conflict between the UK and France/EU on AUKUS submarine order from Australia...France had that 30 billion order-the US did steal it from France...). Also on China; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926891-china-expert-the-spread-of-this-round-of-the-covid-19-epidemic-is-wide-it-is-estimated-that-there-will-be-some-time-before-the-peak-of-the-epidemic-november-3-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926891-china-expert-the-spread-of-this-round-of-the-covid-19-epidemic-is-wide-it-is-estimated-that-there-will-be-some-time-before-the-peak-of-the-epidemic-november-3-2021 ; Zhong Nanshan, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a well-known respiratory expert, said in an interview after the 2020 National Science and Technology Awards Conference that the epidemic has spread in a relatively wide area and involved more provinces, and it is estimated that (cases) will increase. It is estimated that there is still some time before the peak of the epidemic, but it will not be too long. Counting one month now, it should be considered controllable. zhttps://new.qq.com/omn/TWF20211/TWF2021110300441400.html DJ Some indication CoViD-19 may be a bigger problem in China (Delta+ variants also spreading ? Myanmar, Laos, Mongolia, Russia border import ? ) See also Mainland China reports 93 new local-transmitted COVID19 cases on November 2, versus 54 cases a day earlier.
35 cases in China's northeast Heilongjiang, 14 cases in Shijiazhuang, Hebei province, and 9 in Changping district, Beijing, according to NHC. DJ China in worst CoViD-crisis since early 2020 ? Some good news ; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/926849-hrb-open-res-concordance-between-pcr-based-extraction-free-saliva-and-nasopharyngeal-swabs-for-sars-cov-2-testing[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/926849-hrb-open-res-concordance-between-pcr-based-extraction-free-saliva-and-nasopharyngeal-swabs-for-sars-cov-2-testing ; Conclusions: Use of saliva processed according to the SalivaDirect protocol represents a valid method to detect SARS-CoV-2. Accurate and less invasive saliva screening is an attractive alternative to current testing methods based on NPS and would afford greater capacity to test asymptomatic populations especially in the context of frequent testing. DJ, it may turn out salvia testing is also faster then mouth/nose swabs...We need to increase testing/sequencing... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926848-south-korea-nearly-half-of-seoul-s-recent-covid-19-cases-are-breakthrough-infections-city-govt[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926848-south-korea-nearly-half-of-seoul-s-recent-covid-19-cases-are-breakthrough-infections-city-govt ; Nearly half of all recent COVID-19 cases in Seoul were breakthrough infections, a Seoul city official said Tuesday. DJ Looking at outbreak 139 out of 12,295 samples had AY.43... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/926844-bioinform-biol-insight-prediction-of-the-effects-of-variants-and-differential-expression-of-key-host-genes-ace2-tmprss2-and-furin-in-sars-cov-2-pathogenesis-an-in-silico-approach[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/926844-bioinform-biol-insight-prediction-of-the-effects-of-variants-and-differential-expression-of-key-host-genes-ace2-tmprss2-and-furin-in-sars-cov-2-pathogenesis-an-in-silico-approach ; Abstract Although several studies suggest that the spike protein of this virus interacts with the cell surface receptor, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), and is subsequently cleaved by TMPRSS2 and FURIN to enter into the host cell, conclusive insight about the interaction pattern of the variants of these proteins is still lacking. Thus, in this study, we analyzed the functional conjugation among the spike protein, ACE2, TMPRSS2, and FURIN in viral pathogenesis as well as the effects of the mutations of the proteins through the implementation of several bioinformatics approaches. Analysis of the intermolecular interactions revealed that T27A (ACE2), G476S (receptor-binding domain [RBD] of the spike protein), C297T (TMPRSS2), and P812S (cleavage site for TMPRSS2) coding variants may render resistance in viral infection, whereas Q493L (RBD), S477I (RBD), P681R (cleavage site for FURIN), and P683W (cleavage site for FURIN) may lead to increase viral infection. Genotype-specific expression analysis predicted several genetic variants of ACE2 (rs2158082, rs2106806, rs4830971, and rs4830972), TMPRSS2 (rs458213, rs468444, rs4290734, and rs6517666), and FURIN (rs78164913 and rs79742014) that significantly alter their normal expression which might affect the viral spread. Furthermore, we also found that ACE2, TMPRSS2, and FURIN proteins are functionally co-related with each other, and several genes are highly co-expressed with them, which might be involved in viral pathogenesis. This study will thus help in future genomics and proteomics studies of SARS-CoV-2 and will provide an opportunity to understand the underlying molecular mechanism during SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis. DJ Better understanding how CoViD-infection works may provide better interventions... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/926841-front-immunol-role-of-gut-microbiome-in-covid-19-an-insight-into-pathogenesis-and-therapeutic-potential[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/926841-front-immunol-role-of-gut-microbiome-in-covid-19-an-insight-into-pathogenesis-and-therapeutic-potential ; Abstract Although primarily a respiratory illness, dysregulated immune responses may lead to multi-organ dysfunction. Prior data showed that the resident microbial communities of gastrointestinal and respiratory tracts act as modulators of local and systemic inflammatory activity (the gut-lung axis). Evolving evidence now signals an alteration in the gut microbiome, brought upon either by cytokines from the infected respiratory tract or from direct infection of the gut, or both. Dysbiosis leads to a "leaky gut". The intestinal permeability then allows access to bacterial products and toxins into the circulatory system and further exacerbates the systemic inflammatory response. In this review, we discuss the available data related to the role of the gut microbiome in the development and progression of COVID-19. We provide mechanistic insights into early data with a focus on immunological crosstalk and the microbiome's potential as a biomarker and therapeutic target. DJ See [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intestinal_permeability[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intestinal_permeability ; Most people do not experience adverse symptoms, but the opening of intercellular tight junctions (increased intestinal permeability) can act as a trigger for diseases that can affect any organ or tissue depending on genetic predisposition.[9][11][14] Increased intestinal permeability is a factor in several diseases, such as Crohn's disease, celiac disease,[15] type 1 diabetes,[16] type 2 diabetes,[15] rheumatoid arthritis, spondyloarthropathies,[17] inflammatory bowel disease,[9][18] irritable bowel syndrome,[10] schizophrenia,[19][20] certain types of cancer,[9] obesity,[21] fatty liver,[22] atopy and allergic diseases,[16] among others. In the majority of cases, increased permeability develops prior to disease,[9] but the cause–effect relationship between increased intestinal permeability in most of these diseases is not clear.[18][23] A relationship with autism has been hypothesized but the data supporting this theory are limited and contradictory, since both increased intestinal permeability and normal permeability have been documented in people with autism. It is important to note that almost all studies use cohorts of children who have already developed autism, beyond the age of onset (it is not determined if increased permeability could be a cause that resolves itself later in childhood). Studies with mice provide some support to this hypothesis.[24] A well studied model is celiac disease, in which increased intestinal permeability appears secondary to the abnormal immune reaction induced by gluten and allows fragments of gliadin protein to get past the intestinal epithelium, triggering an immune response at the intestinal submucosa level that leads to diverse gastrointestinal or extra-gastrointestinal symptoms.[25][26] Other environmental triggers may contribute to alter permeability in celiac disease, including intestinal infections and iron deficiency.[25] Once established, this increase of permeability might self-sustain the inflammatory immune responses and perpetuate a vicious circle.[25] Eliminating gluten from the diet leads to normalization of intestinal permeability and the autoimmune process shuts off.[27] DJ So is a "leaky gut" the result of a CoViD infection or-sometimes allready there and making CoViD worse ? Schizophrenia, autism maybe linked to leaky guts...Indications are mental health issues can result in more severe disease from CoViD...link is leaky guts ? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/926837-engineering-beijing-factors-predicting-progression-to-severe-covid-19-a-competing-risk-survival-analysis-of-1753-patients-in-community-isolation-in-wuhan-china[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/926837-engineering-beijing-factors-predicting-progression-to-severe-covid-19-a-competing-risk-survival-analysis-of-1753-patients-in-community-isolation-in-wuhan-china ; Abstract Using a multivariable competing risk survival analysis, we herein identify several important predictors of progression to severe COVID-19-rather than to recovery-among patients in community isolation. A competing risk survival analysis was performed on time-to-event data from a cohort study of all COVID-19 patients (n = 1753) in the largest community isolation center in Wuhan, China, from opening to closing. The exposures were age, sex, respiratory symptoms, gastrointestinal symptoms, general symptoms, and computed tomography (CT) scan signs. The main outcomes were time to COVID-19 deterioration or recovery. The factors predicting progression to severe COVID-19 among the patients in community isolation were: male sex (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (95%CI), 1.04-1.58, p = 0.018), young and old age, dyspnea (HR = 1.58, 95%CI, 1.24-2.01, p < 0.001), and CT signs of ground-glass opacity (HR = 1.39, 95%CI, 1.04-1.86, p = 0.024) and infiltrating shadows (HR= 1.84, 95%CI, 1.22-2.78, p = 0.004). The risk of progression was found to be lower among patients with nausea or vomiting (HR = 0.53, 95%CI, 0.30-0.96, p = 0.036) and headaches (HR = 0.54, 95%CI, 0.29-0.99, p = 0.046). Based on the results of this study, resource-poor settings, dyspnea, sex, and age can easily be used to identify mild COVID-19 patients who are at increased risk of progression. Looking for CT signs of ground-glass opacity and infiltrating shadows may be an affordable option to support triage decisions in resource-rich settings. Common and unspecific symptoms including headaches, nausea, and vomiting likely induced the selection for community isolation of COVID-19 patients who were relatively unlikely to deteriorate. Triage and prioritization outcomes could be boosted if strategies are incorporated to minimize the inefficient prioritization of harmless comorbidities. DJ Giving care to most ad risk patients may save lives. Still Delta+ explosion may change ALL of what we know so far... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/926833-prev-med-rep-predicting-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outcomes-in-the-united-states-early-in-the-epidemic[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/926833-prev-med-rep-predicting-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outcomes-in-the-united-states-early-in-the-epidemic ; Abstract Using the resulting associations and multivariate regression (Negative Binomial and Poisson), predicted cases, hospitalizations and deaths were generated for each US state early in the epidemic. Factors associated with a significantly increased risk of COVID-19 disease, hospitalization and death included: population density, enplanement, Black race and increased sun exposure; in addition, COVID-19 disease and hospitalization were also associated with morning humidity. Although predictions of the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths due to COVID-19 were not accurate for every state, those states with a combination of large number of enplanements, high population density, high proportion of Black residents, high humidity or low sun exposure may expect more rapid than expected growth in the number of COVID-19 events early in the epidemic. DJ Also underlining need vitamin D3 ! (And Zinc etc. booster immunity best you can !) [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/926823-transbound-emerg-dis-large-scale-study-on-virological-and-serological-prevalence-of-sars-cov-2-in-cats-and-dogs-in-spain[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/926823-transbound-emerg-dis-large-scale-study-on-virological-and-serological-prevalence-of-sars-cov-2-in-cats-and-dogs-in-spain ; Abstract Knowing the zoonotic origin of the disease and that several animal species, including dogs and cats, are susceptible to viral infection, it is critical to assess the relevance of pets in this pandemic. Here, we performed a large-scale study on SARS-CoV-2 serological and viral prevalence in cats and dogs in Spain in order to elucidate their role and susceptibility. Samples from animals in contact with COVID-19 positive people and/or compatible symptoms (n = 492), as well as from random animals (n = 1024), were taken. Despite the large number of animals analyzed, only 12 animals (eight dogs and four cats), which represents 0.79 % of the total analyzed animals (n = 1516), were positive for viral SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection by RT-qPCR, in which viral isolation was possible in four animals. We detected neutralizing antibodies in 34 animals, four of them also positive for PCR. This study evidences that pets are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection in natural conditions but at a low level, as evidenced by the low percentage of positive animals detected, being infected humans the main source of infection. However, the inclusion of animals in the surveillance of COVID-19 is still recommended. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. DJ No time given...Delta+ could change this picture... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/preparedness-ab/926901-nanotechnology-toward-nanotechnology-enabled-face-masks-against-sars-cov-2-and-pandemic-respiratory-diseases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/preparedness-ab/926901-nanotechnology-toward-nanotechnology-enabled-face-masks-against-sars-cov-2-and-pandemic-respiratory-diseases ; Abstract DJ Better masks save lives ! Also; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/926816-sci-rep-a-semi-automated-isolation-free-high-throughput-sars-cov-2-reverse-transcriptase-rt-loop-mediated-isothermal-amplification-lamp-test[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/926816-sci-rep-a-semi-automated-isolation-free-high-throughput-sars-cov-2-reverse-transcriptase-rt-loop-mediated-isothermal-amplification-lamp-test ; Abstract
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
MMmmmmmmmmm...somehow the last part of my last posting went missing.... DJ, [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/fears-island-may-explode-serious-ground-deformation-large-area-of-northern-lapalma-island[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/fears-island-may-explode-serious-ground-deformation-large-area-of-northern-lapalma-island just a reminder of other then CoViD-risks... Hal Turner finally realizing La Palma exploding would be far more major then "just" a mega landslide. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_Krakatoa[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_Krakatoa from 1883 may have some similarities...However a look at USGS did NOT show the M5 earthquakes H.T. mentions... -Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Cases as far as reported 483,858 (nov-3) +1%, global deaths 7,799 -2%... When I look at highest increase of cases Mayotte (near Madagascar/East Africa) shows up...cases +248% (last week 33, this week 115). [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Mayotte[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Mayotte DJ Mayotte was hit hard with the SA variant...It would be more then welcome to see what variant (of Delta no doubt) is exploding there now...Is it linked to imported cases from France ? East Africa ? Mayotte may be a "hub" with to much travel-transfer of variants.... I do not see Mayotte with the AY.4.2 list [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected Only 7 cases so far of the AY.43 Delta+ sub-variant [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected By the way both AY.4.2 and AY.43 numbers seem to go up worldwide....AY.43 now 142,573 cases detected. In India 5% of the cases, UK 2%, US 1%, detected in 120 countries and 54 (?) US States (proberbly also Puerto Rico, US Samoa etc...). AY.4.2 detected in 29,537 samples from 36 countries/10 US States...UK 4% of cases...worldwide 1% of cases... (AY46,5 has been detected in 3,367 sequences-1% of UK cases...latest info from october 28) The latest info may be 5 days old...India info could be almost 4 weeks old...So with the Delta (still at 151 sub variants) exploding we have "old" info to work with...limited testing (and with limited samples even more limited sequencing...) we may-at best-see 1% of the real pandemic in variants...Miss most of the spread in non human hosts... US deer must be seeing CoViD spreading from humans to deer and within deer...so far believed not going back to humans. But it could be spreading-in the wild-to other animals...(eating dead deer etc.). If it had a chance (since it is in US deer for over 1 year !!!!) to spread to humans it could show up with special (deer related) mutations...But we may miss that... -On "scenario's"...I do this "scenario's" to get an idea of how this pandemic will develop further. Feed back is more then welcome...again I am not neutral, objective or "an expert" (I do not believe in that kind of claims). I once hoped we would be out of this global pandemic disaster in the short term...But that hope has gone... Scenario's is getting a bit large-and if parts end up missing I am not using this "room" wisely...So maybe splitting scenario's up in a "Daily Update" and longer term-not daily-scenario's ? Just one idea... -Flutrackers; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926952-china-covid-19-on-november-3-there-are-3-high-risk-regions-and-55-medium-risk-regions-across-the-country[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926952-china-covid-19-on-november-3-there-are-3-high-risk-regions-and-55-medium-risk-regions-across-the-country ; Chinanews client, Beijing, November 4 (Zhang Yilin) According to a report from the National Health Commission, on the 2nd, there were 93 newly confirmed local cases in 31 provinces and 11 new local asymptomatic infections. At present, community transmission and family transmission have occurred in this round of epidemic, and the prevention and control situation is complicated. When will this round of epidemic be brought under control? DJ There are claims China is now dealing with the worst outbreaks since january 2020...China cases (as far as repoted) going up 76%, last week 298 this week 524 (still no deaths-but CoViD deaths in China "may die of complications of CoViD"). China zero-CoViD strategy is in crisis, New Zealand cases +36% (last week 686 this week 933-with increase of vaccinations) also had "Zero-Covid" as a strategy-it did not survive Delta...(17 out of 2,679 samples were AY.43...proberbly info outdated...). Zero-CoViD strategy is in crisis. So what about high level of vaccinations (boosters, children) ? Israel cases now -29%...I believe they were in the + yesterday...so maybe some "update" did influence these statistics ? [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/covid-pieces-that-trigger-strokes-and-heart-attacks-identified-by-israeli-team/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/covid-pieces-that-trigger-strokes-and-heart-attacks-identified-by-israeli-team/ is not giving the answer-but welcome info. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Israel#Fourth_wave:_June_2021_to_present[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Israel#Fourth_wave:_June_2021_to_present ; On 19 October 2021, the first case of Delta variant AY.4.2 was detected in Israel.[198] Subsequent tests revealed 5 earlier cases of the variant.[199] DJ Outbreak only mentions 4 AY.4.2 from Israel, 1,190 out of 20,345 samples were AY.43 (that info proberbly from end of october). The vaccination strategy is now followed by most western countries...still with no/limited restrictions Delta subvariants will go up... A third strategy followed by a.o. UK, NL, Sweden was "herd immunity" based on wishfull non-science that "natural infection" would give long term immunity...That strategy killed tens of thousends...was a criminal faillure from the start. It also did not "save the economy"... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926951-first-reported-us-transmission-of-covid-from-a-pet-owner-to-pets-documented[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926951-first-reported-us-transmission-of-covid-from-a-pet-owner-to-pets-documented ; For the first time in the U.S., the transmission of COVID-19 from pet parent to pet is documented genetically as part of a study by the Translational Genomics Research Institute (TGen), an affiliate of City of Hope. DJ One question has to be is Delta+ more infectious for pets ? Does it spread from pets to humans-with mutations causing variants...? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926947-colorado-hospitals-allowed-to-turn-away-patients-amid-covid-19-surge[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926947-colorado-hospitals-allowed-to-turn-away-patients-amid-covid-19-surge ; Hospitals in Colorado are being allowed to turn away patients as the state experiences its worst Covid surge in a year. DJ Healthcare is in a worsening crisis in many places. We may miss a lot of cases/deaths in countries like Brazil, India, Ukraine... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926945-the-economist-estimates-using-excess-deaths-totals-that-the-actual-range-of-total-global-deaths-from-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-10-3-19-5-million-november-3-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926945-the-economist-estimates-using-excess-deaths-totals-that-the-actual-range-of-total-global-deaths-from-the-covid-19-pandemic-is-10-3-19-5-million-november-3-2021 ; The number of people who have died from covid-19 is likely to be close to 17m The official tally of 5m is a huge undercount UPDATED ON NOVEMBER 3RD snip Our estimates, at time of writing, find the most likely global death toll to be 16.8m, with a confidence interval of between 10.3m and 19.5m. https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...e-close-to-17m DJ When I look at countries; India deaths 4 to 5 million, Brazil most likely also over 1 million, but also NL double the official numbers due to excluding deaths in care centers these numbers may be a bit conservative...If you look at premature pandemic deaths-people that would be alive today if there was no pandemic-but dying not from CoVid but other illnesses by lack of care then you end up with even a higher number... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/united-kingdom-and-northern-ireland/926932-uk-on-high-alert-after-scottish-h5n1-outbreak-in-a-flock-of-birds[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/united-kingdom-and-northern-ireland/926932-uk-on-high-alert-after-scottish-h5n1-outbreak-in-a-flock-of-birds DJ-It is bird-flu season...H5N1 also reported a.o. from Germany, Italy...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1 .... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/926904-arch-virol-stability-of-sars-cov-2-and-other-airborne-viruses-under-different-stress-conditions[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/926904-arch-virol-stability-of-sars-cov-2-and-other-airborne-viruses-under-different-stress-conditions ; Abstract DJ "Viral stress" is a motor behind mutations. Lots of studies to do... Some twitter ; [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; Vaccination is not enough. Vaccines are incredibly effective against preventing severe disease and death, but they are insufficient alone to stem transmission. Get vaccinated when you can and fight for #VaccinEquity but we need to use additional tools to reduce transmission. DJ STOP THE SPREAD !!!! Spread is mutations=new variants... [url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; here is the distribution of such said deer across North and South America. DJ The CoViD catching sort of deer are spread from Canada to the northern parts of South America...We DO know it came from humans and is spreading inside deers-for over a year by now...We do NOT know how its is spreading further into other animals... When I look at Dutch twitter [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/04/parliamentary-inquiry-dutch-coronavirus-policy[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/04/parliamentary-inquiry-dutch-coronavirus-policy their view is politics failed...not only the lying pm rutte... My opinion-this pandemic is again not under control...vaccinations offer limited protection but Delta may soon deal with that...Why Delta still is not seen as a Variant Of High Consequence, "just" a "Variant Of Concern" (VOC) ? -Dr. John Campbell on "Global deaths" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdmb5NFiEW0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdmb5NFiEW0 ; Official versus actual deaths (Economist) US, deaths = 745,274 US, deaths = 860,000 to 1 million China, deaths = 4,600 China, deaths = 150,000 to 1,700,000 India, deaths = 458,000 India, deaths = 1.2 million to 7.2 million Russia, deaths = 236,462 Russia, deaths = 870,000 to 910,000 Indonesia, deaths = 143,457 Indonesia, deaths = 300,000 to 1.2 million Pakistan, deaths = 28,477 Pakistan, deaths = 300,000 to 910,000 Bangladesh, deaths = 27,873 Bangladesh, deaths = 200,000 to 720,000 Turkey, deaths = 71,052 Turkey, deaths = 130,000 to 420,000 Mexico, deaths = 288,464 Mexico, deaths = 560,000 to 600,000 Brazil, deaths = 608,071 Brazil, deaths = 660,000 to 740,000 Factors Death tolls are heavily influenced by the age structure of a country’s population Rely on the assumption that officially published excess-mortality numbers are accurate Covid-19 disruption, some governments may have changed how they compile data
DJ Part of the discussion is in the definition of "CoViD deaths"...UK, Russia put 4 weeks after a positive test (for reasons I do not get...). Lots of countries see "deaths in older people/care centers" NOT as CoViD deaths...Still if you put global population at 8 billion then 20 million CoViD deaths would mean 0,25% of the global population-so far-died in this pandemic...Far from the numbers (2 to 5%) of the Spanish Flu...This pandemic is however far from over-is getting worse... In my opinion we keep underestimating pandemic risks...a combination of Delta getting out of control, a bad flu season and collapse of healthcare may see "dramatic bad numbers"... Music (I try again) ; Gloria Gaynor - I Will Survive - 1978 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARt9HV9T0w8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARt9HV9T0w8 (I will see how good this posting will survive on this forum...)
|
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, Another try to make cheese out of this pandemic disaster...CRS.DrPH had a good summary in "Yep, I've had it"..One basic point may be ; "b) COVID-19 is a nasty, potentially lethal virus with high infectivity - in my field (pubic health and infectious disease epidemiology), we take these events very seriously as the results can be ruinous upon society. Already, it appears that the impact of COVID-19 upon the planet is worse than the 1918 Spanish flu, which used to dominate this site. " DJ-Let that sink in for a moment ....!!!!! I think a realistic estimate on CoViD may translate to 20 million deaths on a global population of 8 billion=0,25% of the population so far did die in this pandemic. The Spanish Flu lowest estimate of global deaths also has 20 million-in general it is put at between 50 and 80 to 100 million deaths...Given a global population of 2 billion it would translate to 2 to 5% of the 1918 global population. But this pandemic seems to be getting (much) worse...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports allready has 151 subvariants of Delta (B.1.617.2) and most likely that list will keep growing... For comparison Alpha has 8 subvariants...Beta just 5, Gamma 20, Lambda, Mu just stick to 1 sublineage, Eta & Kappa 0...Iota just 3. Since Delta did get this widespread around the globe it is mutating like crazy...most likely allready also in NON-HUMAN HOSTS !!! Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ global reported cases (with most cases being missed !) 509,764 trend +2%. Deaths as far as reported at 7,419 trend -5%...Cases first go up-deaths follow later on... Europe trends cases +9%, deaths +11%...North America cases still -5%, deaths -15%...but given Delta+ variants are both spreading and developing high speed, US (cases -3%), Canada (cases -5%) may expect "an explosion of cases" most likely this month...Extra vaccinations do not come in time to stop it... Also why is Europe-with cases going up in well vaccinated countries-hit this hard, other regions much less ? Does vaccination & Delta create an "infection party"? Yes a lot of cases also in Eustern Europe-but NL, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Germany did do very well in vaccinations...Germany still has a lot of restrictions...so a major part is in Delta subvariants getting worse ! [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=DEU[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=DEU One year ago nov.4 2020 did see 576,532 new cases..but that was before vaccines showed up, with more healthcare capacity remaining and Delta not a factor yet. Healthcare is allready at its knees...winter on its way... Top 3 for cases; US 81,033 (-3% trend) new cases, Russia 40,217 (+8%) new cases, UK 37,269 (-7%) new cases (ZOE/ONS come up with much higher numbers for the UK...) Top 3 for deaths Russia 1,195 (+7%), US 1,149 (-15%), Ukraine 699 (+3%). -Flutrackers etc. [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; I am not even following the cases anymore, as many test at home or not test at all. Every single hospital in the state is way above capacity of their physical plant and the reserves of their staff. The day of the #Krampus is near. Boost yourself+Mask+Vax your eligible children DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krampus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krampus "SHTF", slate-wiper etc...Not meant to be a sort of "fear-porn" but lets get real...there is a major pandemic and we do not put a brake on the spread seriously enough...what did you expect ? CoViD-19, H3N2-flu, healthcare "limited"....winter on its way...connect the dots ! Idiots in power, politics made this crisis... Lesson #4:
But, as the wave rampaged, the protection of the vaccinated non-boosted Over-60s also waned. From the charts of severe/lethal outcomes, it became obvious those people needed boosting IMMEDIATELY (which Israel did & reversed the trend, while others debated for months). DJ In many countries deads in carecenters are going up (...) but may be kept out of statistics "since they would die anyway...." DJ...If a vaccine is protecting for 80% against severe disease (average after 4 months or so...) and 80% of 12+ population is vaccinated you will have 64% protection while Delta+ is getting better in evading that (allready limited) protection... DJ This pandemic-like the climate collapse-is the outcome of corrupt politics...Oxfam came up with 1% of richest people responsible for 2x the CO2 release as the poorest 50% of the global population...A rich elite is above democrazy or nationality...Politics let that happen... [url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; Here's my article about the coming epidemic of deadly climate depression among the world's youth, and why getting past #blahblahblah is the only way out. DJ We need solutions, not talking clowns...It's been a rough week of learning that the Covid info in the general public is way worse than I understood. I didn't understand that doctors are *still* telling people they're 100% safe from transmission/transmitting if they're vaccinated, even if they're 8 months out from vax. DJ Communication is "lost"....we have better technology for communications then ever before, most western countries never had that many people with was supposed to be good education...but the outcome is a load of garbage ! WE-us humans-have become the problem for ourselves ! If we can think why don't we start doing so now ! [url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_B most in Dutch...but basically; We have been warning for healthcare collapse...but did not see any action by politics...Public want to party... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/927008-cidrap-pandemic-marked-by-premature-deaths-lost-years-of-life[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/927008-cidrap-pandemic-marked-by-premature-deaths-lost-years-of-life ; More than 28 million extra years of life were lost among 31 high- and upper-middle–income countries, and 33 nations saw declines in life expectancy, amid the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, concludes a study yesterday in BMJ. DJ Mind you-this is about just 2020.... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/927007-cidrap-europe-repeats-role-as-global-covid-19-hot-spot[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/927007-cidrap-europe-repeats-role-as-global-covid-19-hot-spot ; In a sobering assessment of the COVID-19 situation in Europe and Central Asia today, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) European regional office warned that countries could see another half million deaths by February and that 43 nations could face extreme pressure on hospital beds. DJ Since "countries we keep poor" do not have many 65+y/o the number of deaths there may be limited... DJ-I totally disagree with his political views [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/soooooo-you-think-the-mass-media-is-free-and-independent-give-a-look[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/soooooo-you-think-the-mass-media-is-free-and-independent-give-a-look however HT has a point on mass media all bringing the same "news"... This pandemic is getting ugly very fast. Vaccinations now will be much less effective, they come to late ! (And YES-there is something like "to late" !!!) [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-third-eruption-begins-on-lapalma[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-third-eruption-begins-on-lapalma Mega-tsunami's did happen in recent past (last 1000 years...) we ignore it...Just like we ignore chances of war [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-moving-tanks-toward-the-donbass-russia-responds-in-kind[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-moving-tanks-toward-the-donbass-russia-responds-in-kind ...NO ! Russia will not accept Ukraine, Georgia becoming NATO-members ! NO ! China will not accept US military "investments" in Taiwan...Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, Pakistan, Turkey, Syria, Iraq etc have had enough of US/UK agression ! In a 1984-like form of "double talk" peace missions mean war...NATO "defense" was in Afghanistan, includes Israel, was active in Libya, Ukraine... -Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgidBCS2Nic[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LgidBCS2Nic on DW (Deutsche Welle-German worldservice) on booster vaccines and antivirals... "Boosters do work" Dr.J.C. [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlUNsEqXZFU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlUNsEqXZFU (DJ-If given in time...) ZOE; Have we broken the back of CoViD ? [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFJIAckwxY0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFJIAckwxY0 ; This week, Tim talks all about how we've reached the last great peak of 2021, and we're finally seeing COVID cases start their steady decline. He also discusses some interesting new research we've uncovered from the app about non-COVID respiratory illnesses, and what these findings indicate. He briefly mentions some other findings we've found regarding boosters, and we'll be bringing you a longer video on this in the coming days -so remember to subscribe and look out for it! Link to book your booster through the NHS walk in service: https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronav... Learn how to log your booster vaccine: https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/log-an... DJ; UK may present a bit more optimism but the duration of this crisis means healthcare can not deal with yet another peak.... Music; Beegees - Staying Alive [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNFzfwLM72c[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNFzfwLM72c |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, Since we are almost two years in this pandemic (with lots of eary cases in 2019 being missed in many countries) we now face several problems; -The major problem is public no longer trusting politics/experts/mass media "elite"...This "elite" did produce that much non-sense, from vaccinating ourselves out of the pandemic to even claim this pandemic turned into an "endemic phase"-lies...Reopenings, not closing borders in time did not only spread the early variant (linked to Wuhan-China but it showed up in 2019 also in Europe...) it also-in april this year-spread the Delta variant from India, via the UK around the globe... -Delta+ subvariants are exploding and "out of control". Vaccines do buy time but if "the powers that be" do not have any idea left what to do with that time even vaccinated vulnarable people end up in hospitals in many countries. Booster vaccines did give good results in Israel-but only can be effective in combination with restrictions...Many (rich) countries still have to start booster vaccines...Worldwide over 30% of the 18 y/o+ now fully vaccinated (?) China and India the countries with the highest numbers-in real numbers-vaccinated (both 1 billion+ by now at least one vaccination). -Healthcare is collapsing. Staff is the major problem. Not realizing healthcare is collapsing may proof itself to be the biggest problem soon...Governments hoping healthcare can increase capacity again, while HCW-ers are breaking down so capacity is decreasing with demand (CoViD, Flu, delayed care) exploding... Yes-there is also some good news ! Better treatments (Merck, Pfizer-but some countries (a.o.India) also claim Ivermectin) can save lives...But when there is hardly a doctor available prescribing the medication healthcare collapse do "limit" new treatments... Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; Global cases +3%, US cases -0,7% !!!! UK cases -8%.... In real numbers cases top 3; #1 US reporting 84,846 new cases (-0,7% weekly trend !) #2 Russia 40,735 new cases (+7%) #3 Germany (new !) 35,806 new cases (+28% with high level of both vaccinations AND restrictions !) NL now at #10 (again) with 10,911 new cases (+36%) Vaccination over 80% of 12 y/o+.... Global new deaths top 3; #1 US 1,345 (weekly trend -16%) #2 Russia 1,192 (+6%) #3 Ukraine 696 (+4%) Germany at #12 with 178 deaths reported trend +100% (!!!!!!!) last week 382, this week 765 deaths reported... For Europe both cases and deaths trend +9%. Both North America and Africa trend for cases -3%. Global reported numbers; Cases 506,263 (again over half a million per day...Global tested cases will get over 250 million today). Deaths 7,711. Blaming the unvaccinated does not help...even vaccinating them NOW may be a bit late (still get vaccinated !!!). Delta+ variants, a total lack of testing, fake QR-codes/vaccine passports are all pushing numbers up... -Flutrackers etc. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/927088-clin-inf-dis-isolation-of-a-novel-recombinant-canine-coronavirus-from-a-visitor-to-haiti-further-evidence-of-transmission-of-coronaviruses-of-zoonotic-origin-to-humans%C2%A0[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/927088-clin-inf-dis-isolation-of-a-novel-recombinant-canine-coronavirus-from-a-visitor-to-haiti-further-evidence-of-transmission-of-coronaviruses-of-zoonotic-origin-to-humans%C2%A0 latest; They haven't proved that the virus reported to be found in Malaysia is a human pathogen, much less that it caused pneumonia. DJ Also discussed elsewhere on this forum (latest news)-So it is still not fully clear if the Florida/Haïti did get a canine-corona virus ? Or that that virus did cause a disease ? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/927092-china-zhangye-who-accounts-for-half-of-the-domestic-corn-seeds-pressed-the-pause-button-by-the-covid-19-epidemic-gansu-province-november-4-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/927092-china-zhangye-who-accounts-for-half-of-the-domestic-corn-seeds-pressed-the-pause-button-by-the-covid-19-epidemic-gansu-province-november-4-2021 ; Li Junying discovered that the busy vehicles transporting corn seeds in the past had also ceased operation. Anxiously, he contacted many logistics companies, railway stations and express companies, and the answers were all , Without the clearance procedures jointly issued by the local agricultural department and the Health and Health Commission, vehicles cannot run on the road, let alone transport seeds to other places. - Among them, Ganzhou District under the jurisdiction of Zhangye City produces 300 million kilograms of corn seeds on average every year, with an output value of 2.5 billion yuan, accounting for the country’s large-field corn seeds. More than 40% of the amount, and the entire Zhangye City, the annual number of breeding seeds occupies nearly half of the country's market share. "Equivalent to every two (corn) seeds in the country, one may come from Zhangye." DJ To stop the spread also transport of corn seed has stopped...This will result in global higher prices for food (+10%+). [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/927086-cidrap-pfizer-reports-good-results-against-severe-covid-19-for-its-antiviral-pill[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/927086-cidrap-pfizer-reports-good-results-against-severe-covid-19-for-its-antiviral-pill ; Pfizer announced today that its oral antiviral treatment for COVID-19 (Paxlovid) reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 89% compared with placebo when taken within 3 days of symptom onset, while the federal government faces push-back on vaccine mandates. DJ, Of course Pfizer has to sell its products, however vaccines did show good results-against severe disease. Other countries will be working on better medication for early treatment as well. Both India and China may have the capacity to produce on a global scale. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/927085-cidrap-covid-19-vaccines-85-effective-against-hospital-cases-but-weaken-over-time[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/927085-cidrap-covid-19-vaccines-85-effective-against-hospital-cases-but-weaken-over-time ; A pair of new studies detail COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness, one showing 85% protection against hospitalization and the other describing waning efficacy for three vaccine types against infection and death caused by the highly transmissible Delta (B1617.2) variant among US veterans. DJ This study ended with august 15 numbers-by now the picture is changing. Since in many rich countries over 60% of the population (18 y/o+) is vaccinated more vaccinated (vulnarables) end up in hospital. Booster vaccinations should have started earlier-involving more people. From the same link; Breakthrough infections in 5% of fully vaccinated [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/north-america-ab/north-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/927078-covid-19-cases-in-the-caribbean-are-rising[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/north-america-ab/north-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/927078-covid-19-cases-in-the-caribbean-are-rising ; Officials of the World Health Organization (WHO) has warned about the recent significant surges of COVID-19 cases in several Caribbean countries. DJ; Some reports claim some of the small islands could see Non-Delta-variant cases increasing...Healthcare, testing/sequencing is limited...Just like Africa, South America it could bring unwelcome variant-surprises...Can it get worse ? Looking at SARS-1, MERS yes it can get much worse ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/927073-children-under-12-leading-new-covid-19-infections-across-canada-phac[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/927073-children-under-12-leading-new-covid-19-infections-across-canada-phac ; Children under 12 now make up the largest number of new COVID-19 infections as health officials say vaccinations for the age group are still weeks away. DJ It would be more then welcome to vaccinate under 12 y/o age group. "Only mild symptoms" is simply not realistic ! Besides that this age group does spread the virus to (grand) parents...Even vaccinated they may catch the virus, spread the (mutated) virus...Also Delta+ is in high speed developing most likely hundreds of sub-variants...Do we react again when things get out of control ? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/927118-vet-rec-infection-with-sars-cov-2-variant-b-1-1-7-detected-in-a-group-of-dogs-and-cats-with-suspected-myocarditis[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/927118-vet-rec-infection-with-sars-cov-2-variant-b-1-1-7-detected-in-a-group-of-dogs-and-cats-with-suspected-myocarditis ; Abstract DJ This story is on the "good old Alpha variant"...Delta+ most likely much worse ! And we-again-could and should have seen it coming ! The more spread of CoViD-19 in non-human hosts the more variants, the harder to get any grip on this pandemic ! Wordgames do NOT help ! Blaming does NOT help ! Some twitter; [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; So, the solution was UPPING the Abs by boosting & REDUCING the inoculum dose/viral circulation with NPIs. This has major implications for managing the pandemic because the let-it-rip strategy directly contributes to breaking through vaccines & forever-fleeting "herd" immunity. DJ; increase vaccinations, lower the spread via restrictions...A major problem for western countries...(Some indications suggest countries we keep poor may do better !). In those boosted, the protection vs. all outcomes was amazingly swiftly restored to pre-waning 90%+ levels in both age groups. But, there's confusion about why RRR improved also in those that didn't boost (and then stopped at about 80% vs. severe & 50% vs. infection). DJ, why vaccines are such a big problem all of a sudden ? I simply do not understand that... [url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; South Korea followed the textbook principles of epidemiology. Kept deaths 40 times lower all the way till 75% of population fully vaccinated. This is success. DJ Maybe some governments have a problem in knowing their job ? DJ-My conclusion is this crisis is getting more ugly by the hour...Looking at NL more people now start blaming the government for doing a very bad job. I agree with that but no government is not a better alternative...It may be an even optimistic scenario if hospitals have "room" to select between vaccinated and non-vaccinated cases, see a difference between severe flu/pneumonia cases and CoViD-cases...It will be a hard, cold, winter ! -Dr. John Campbell again on how to vaccinate (and aspirate ! Check not damaging a blood vessel/injecting into a blood vessel instead of the muscle...). [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsACTX0_ihs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsACTX0_ihs -Info under the video. The wrong way of vaccinating can cause a.o. other inflamation of the hearthmuscle... -Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzRnKQrm61w[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MzRnKQrm61w Elvis - 1956 - Hearth Break Hotel |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/the-exclusion-of-climate-science-from-cop-meetings.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/the-exclusion-of-climate-science-from-cop-meetings.html Science is only in the way of a "political solution"...The goal of climate talks is to "save the economy-and with that the rich 0,1%"... So from politicians not yet leaving their private jets dressed in green, riding a bicycle to political pandemic bla-bla... -It is "endemic"...No it is not ! It is still developing, spreading, new waves on their way...Endemic would suggest low numbers, local outbreaks...we are in high numbers, still global, Delta getting worse... -The "unvaccinated did it"...Worldwide most people do want to get vaccinated. Rich countries have an overload of not only vaccines but also vaccine patents etc...They do not want to share that "to protect the big pharma shareholders".... Most countries managed to keep the discussion on vaccines medical-resulting in over 80% of 12 y/o being vaccinated...blaming the unvaccinated only is keeping failing politics out of problems.... -"China did it" (and "is doing it again"). From early on the picture I am getting is that China was surprised by the outbreak-but a lot of info was/is available...but NOT in English (In China they speak Chinese languages...). -"Vaccines will save us"...problem with that is-YES-vaccines may have saved is early 2020 before variants showed up. Lots of experts, the WHO etc. warned with Delta we needed BOTH vaccines AND restrictions...politics ignored that science...The outcome is Delta R0 was between 5 and 8, newer Delta+ variants have an R0 of maybe over 10 by now ? (R0 is reproduction number; R0 of 1 means 1 person infects just one other person, R0 of 10 means 1 person infecting 10 persons...with Delta/Delta+ linked most to a higher viral load.) -"We have to live with it"...Proberbly on the short term no other options left...But "living with a worsening pandemic" is yet another global disaster ! The virus keeps mutating, resulting in worse variants... By now it looks like; A. CoViD may be spreading in animals...giving the virus-variants even more room to develop. It does no longer need human hosts...(so it may dump human hosts...) B.The variants are getting better in evading immunity...So even after vaccination/infection you can get infected again. Brazil, Iran did see high numbers of people catching CoViD more then once... -Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; Global cases 417,576 weekly trend +2%, global deaths as far as reported 6,350 trend -5%. Russia reporting 41,335 new cases trend +6%, US 32,479 new cases, -7%, UK at #3 with 30,693 new cases -11%... Deaths Russia 1,188 trend +5%, Ukraine 793 +9%, India 519 -34%... In official numbers we are now over 250 million cases resulting in 5 million deaths...so far 2% of cases died from CoViD if you follow these numbers...Both cases and deaths will be several times higher...also in my opinion this pandemic is getting worse. For most people winter is on its way...We face a bad flu season...Also this pandemic has been going on for allmost 2 years...poor communications...people are fed up with failing politics... Frustrating news countries like Portugal, Denmark cases +24%...These countries are believed to be the best in vaccinating, testing, sequencing....Israel cases -21% but still at a high level. Most likely spread in unvaccinated...children, orthodox, minorities... China cases +59% with limited numbers, New Zealand cases +45%...These countries went for a "Zero-Covid strategy" now also facing problems with Delta+ variants... Europe cases +9%, deaths +10% is alarming because Europe (at least major parts of it) is supposed to have a high level of vaccinations, testing, natural immunity etc...Asia cases now at -2%, Africa cases +0,6%... NL at #8 for new cases. Worldometers has 11,954 new NL cases. [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/06/12000-new-coronavirus-infections-nearly-new-record-hospitalizations-mount[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/06/12000-new-coronavirus-infections-nearly-new-record-hospitalizations-mount ; Some 12,024 people tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection between Friday and Saturday morning, according to raw data from the RIVM. It was just the fifth time since wide scale testing began in June 2020 that over 12,000 people tested positive in a day. The uncorrected record was set on December 20, when 13,066 people were diagnosed with the infection. Based on corrected data, the record is 12,997. Between 12,250 and 12,850 people tested positive the three days prior. The new data from Saturday caused the seven-day moving average for the 34th consecutive day. That average jumped six percent to 9,452, the highest it has been since July 21. It suggested that the growth in infections might not be slowing down just yet, as data from earlier in the week showed. The moving average has gone up by 38 percent in a week. DJ Here in NL the government will have another pressmeeting coming friday. They did not want to go for "a lockdown not called a lockdown" in one step. So since this weekend we have to use masks in shops, gyms etc..."and if that does not work" (wich it can not...) our "government" "may decide" on "stricter rules"....(on wich they allready did make plans...but will not communicate about...their strategy failed..) [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/06/fake-covid-qr-codes-abroad-can-blocked-saturday[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/06/fake-covid-qr-codes-abroad-can-blocked-saturday ; Since Saturday, the Ministry of Health can not only block fraudulent QR codes from the Netherlands but also fake codes from abroad. Some websites illegally offer fake QR codes. Health Minister Hugo de Jonge arranged an emergency regulation on Friday that allows access passes from abroad to be blocked if they are misused. People use fake QR codes to enter places where they are obliged to show a coronavirus pass. From Saturday, people have to show a QR code to access a larger number of locations due to the rapid spread of the coronavirus. De Jonge wanted the regulation to prevent the misuse of QR codes as much as possible. "Entering somewhere with a QR code that is not yours is punishable. It is also irresponsible; you are taking a risk with the health of someone else," De Jonge said on Twitter. In addition, the Ministry of Health filed a report on Friday against one of the sites that offers fake QR codes. A spokesperson from the Health Ministry said the site and the codes have since been blocked. More and more phony QR codes are being offered abroad, but it has not been possible to take them down until now. People get a green tick with their QR code if they have been vaccinated against Covid-19, recovered from the illness, or recently tested negative for the coronavirus. Only then are they allowed in somewhere. From November 6, people who, for example, want to exercise indoors or go to a cultural activity must also show a coronavirus pass. DJ It is unclear how widespread fake "vaccine passports" are. In some cities it may be 10%+...But also in some countries (a.o. Russia) it is a bigger problem (less people vaccinated...active trade in fake QR-codes). -Flutrackers etc. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/global-climate-change/927157-global-day-of-action-tens-of-thousands-to-march-in-glasgow-against-climate-change-alongside-millions-around-the-world-as-city-hosts-cop26[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/global-climate-change/927157-global-day-of-action-tens-of-thousands-to-march-in-glasgow-against-climate-change-alongside-millions-around-the-world-as-city-hosts-cop26 DJ; Public pressure has resulted in less investments in fossil fuels...I do not want my bank to invest in companies that destroy the planet...My retirement fund did stop investing in that kind of companies... So yes things are moving but by far not fast enough...In this pandemic public pressure, science, will force politics to finally do something that may work....but also that takes time...(and yes here it-also- means millions of deaths...). It IS unacceptable but we may not have a better alternative... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/927152-safe-traveling-in-public-transport-amid-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/927152-safe-traveling-in-public-transport-amid-covid-19 ; Abstract DJ Car use in many places may be even above prepandemic levels...public transport use often between 60-80%...Of course working/study from home is the better alternative (with organizing safe social activities). Here in my NL region the use of bikes did decrease...(number of people riding a bicycle getting killed in traffic is going up...More cars means less safety for people on bikes/foot...certainly if aging is also a factor, e-bikes etc...). How to make public transport feel more safe is another discussion... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/927151-ivermectin-covid-19-study-retracted-authors-blame-file-mixup[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/927151-ivermectin-covid-19-study-retracted-authors-blame-file-mixup ; The authors of a study purportedly showing that ivermectin could treat patients with SARS-CoV-2 have retracted their paper after acknowledging that their data were garbled. The paper, "Effects of a Single Dose of Ivermectin on Viral and Clinical Outcomes in Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infected Subjects: A Pilot Clinical Trial in Lebanon," appeared in the journal Viruses in May. According to the abstract: A randomized controlled trial was conducted in 100 asymptomatic Lebanese subjects that have tested positive for SARS-CoV2. Fifty patients received standard preventive treatment, mainly supplements, and the experimental group received a single dose (according to body weight) of ivermectin, in addition to the same supplements the control group received. … ... However, in early October, the BBC reported — in larger piece about the concerns about ivermectin-Covid-19 research — that the study: was found to have blocks of details of 11 patients that had been copied and pasted repeatedly – suggesting many of the trial’s apparent patients didn’t really exist.The study’s authors told the BBC that the ‘original set of data was rigged, sabotaged or mistakenly entered in the final file’ and that they have submitted a retraction to the scientific journal which published it. That’s not quite what the retraction notice states: https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle...s1_211106#vp_2 DJ Ivermectin still will be used in poor countries with no alternatives...How good the results are is not fully clear. How widespread is Ivermectin used in India ? Are there official numbers on that ? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/927149-new-coronavirus-cases-top-12-000-fourth-highest-total-ever-netherlands[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/927149-new-coronavirus-cases-top-12-000-fourth-highest-total-ever-netherlands ; November 6, 2021 DJ With limited testing...a lot of vaccinated with symptoms do not go for a test...or test at home... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/927147-denver-zoo-reports-world%E2%80%99s-first-coronavirus-cases-in-hyenas[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/927147-denver-zoo-reports-world%E2%80%99s-first-coronavirus-cases-in-hyenas ; Two hyenas at the Denver Zoo have tested positive for the coronavirus, the first confirmed cases among the animals worldwide, a national veterinary lab announced Friday. DJ; By now it is clear CoViD is spreading in US deer. Also mink-like, cat-like animals seem to be able to get infected and spread the virus. If dog-like animals get sick from CoViD they most likely also spread the virus... This means CoViD may find billions of non-human hosts...An idea was that "if the virus does cause the host ending up dead" it would be the end for the virus. With (soon massive) spread in non-human hosts that idea still could translate into CoVid becoming much more deathly for humans (like SARS-1, MERS both also CoViD's)...It also means controlling this pandemic will get even more impossible...see also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/927088-clin-inf-dis-isolation-of-a-novel-recombinant-canine-coronavirus-from-a-visitor-to-haiti-further-evidence-of-transmission-of-coronaviruses-of-zoonotic-origin-to-humans%C2%A0[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/927088-clin-inf-dis-isolation-of-a-novel-recombinant-canine-coronavirus-from-a-visitor-to-haiti-further-evidence-of-transmission-of-coronaviruses-of-zoonotic-origin-to-humans%C2%A0 ongoing discussion... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/927133-comput-biol-med-analysis-of-329-942-sars-cov-2-records-retrieved-from-gisaid-database[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/927133-comput-biol-med-analysis-of-329-942-sars-cov-2-records-retrieved-from-gisaid-database ; Abstract
Two clusters were formed by mutations in the samples uploaded predominantly by Denmark and Australia (1.48% and 2.51%, respectively). A correlation coefficient matrix detected 160 pairs of mutations (correlation coefficient greater than 0.7). We also addressed the completeness of the GISAID database, patient gender, and age. Finally, we found ORF6 and E to be the most conserved genes (96.15% and 94.66% of the sequences totally match the reference, respectively). Our results indicate multiple areas for further research in both SARS-CoV-2 studies and health science. DJ Good science ! Some mutations come in pairs...(so there is a link in the proces of mutations). Some positions do not mutate... Twitter; [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; Crisis of leadership. Leadership has lost the trust of the people because they are not acting on behalf of the people. Some think that government action is the problem but it is inaction that is the problem. Action is needed against the pandemic. and The lifting of COVID restrictions does not mean that the pandemic is ending. It just means that your elected officials have decided to stop doing anything about it. and Wealth concentration has increased a lot in recent decades, contributing to higher levels of political polarization and debates about why. The top 1% now firmly have more wealth than the bottom 90% of the population combined. DJ Making "democracy democrazy".... this is a delayed reaction. in fact, one of the most delayed reactions you can have. delayed pathogenesis in cov2 allows for a longer clinical incubation period
You can have people loaded with virus and biomass and their t cells take a while to differentiate to exact autoimmunity DJ both infection and immunity are very complex. And; Als antwoord op Literally everything works. Masks work, ventilation works, vaccines work, vaccines for convalescent work, 3rd shot works, vax for kids works, mixing vaccines works, diff masks work, passive immunization works, mAbs work, being outdoors works, hell, even taking FluMist works... DJ...they do NOT work when they are not used ! i think people fail to grasp the implications of a seasonal sars. it means the greatest cause of death will shift to complications of sarscov2 and the life expectancy will drop significantly. I'm not saying it's an inevitability, we can still have immune systems from a jar. DJ, "a jar" means better vaccines, treatments etc. I think it is safe to claim we will be in this pandemic till summer 2022. After that who knows ? Better vaccines, treatments, variants developing away from humans ? History is full of surprises ! Just like in climate collapse the "picture is dark" but there are scenario's (volcanic eruptions, Greenland/Antarctic Ice spreading over the ocean) that can undo human destruction of the climate to some level... [url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; What the hell—8 people died at the concert, ranging in age from 14 to 27, all crushed in the 50,000+ crowd. Yet the #AstroWorld #TravisScott concert continued amid ambulances and paramedics. Dystopian—no wonder so many also don’t even care about pandemic #COVID19 deaths either. DJ; People getting crushed in mass events "is not new"...mixing it with a pandemic may be "new"...."The show must go on" sometimes is a choice to avoid panic...Security/police play a role in such choices...communications are essential...(and often a problem-so those that have to make decissions do not get enough info...). -Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THv33zWykJc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THv33zWykJc on a BMJ Pfizer whistle blower...info under the video. DJ; Do Big Pharma come up with fake studies ? Yes...all for the money...bad reputation...Does this make CoViD vaccines "bad news"? No-statistics indicate vaccines are doing a great job in limiting severe cases...We needed to combine it with NPI/restrictions but we failed there...Also variants develop much faster/different than most experts expected...The problem is not in the vaccines but in wishfull "thinking"/hopium from "our leaders"... -Music; Dana - Cold, Cold Christmas Without You...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vMR3bt3ibg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vMR3bt3ibg Christmas 1,5 month away from now...numbers will go up ! Lots of countries will move to "lockdowns not called lockdowns" to late... People here on this forum by now know it is wise to avoid large crowds, get (booster)vaccines, masks etc...Stay safe-and think !!! |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, Just as an indication of how statistics (do not) work; numbers; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;343,131 cases reported-trend +0,9%... Top 3 for cases; 1. Russia 39,165 cases (+3% weekly trend), 2. UK 30,305 (-13%), 3. Turkey 25,304 (+10%). Top 3 for (new) deaths; 1.Russia 1,179 (+4%), 2. Ukraine 449 ((+13%), 3. Romania 263 (-5%). What can you do with these numbers ? If you would not know these are weekend/sunday numbers you may see them as an indication most of the pandemic now is a European problem. US seems to almost stop testing in the weekend... But looking a bit further US for cases at #4 with 23,165 (-13%), for deaths the US is at #9 with "only"123 new deaths reported-trend -21%.... (By the way NL is back in the top 10 for new cases for several days-now at #9 with 11,349 in worldometers-trend +39%). European trends cases +8%, deaths +9%...the only region where cases keep going up for weeks now. It started with UK cases going up-later on Eastern Europe and by now the UK is one of the few European countries where cases are going down... Reasons for increase of cases; -Unvaccinated groups...often a lot of them under 18 or 12-with some countries still refusing vaccines for those groups..Not getting a vaccine is also a factor in minorities, orthodox religious groups and a small (but very loud) group of anti-vax/pandemic deniers... -Lack of booster vaccines...Here in NL we have a high level of vaccinations (84,1% of 18+, 82,1% of 12+ is fully vaccinated) but the government still wants to start booster vaccines in december...with at present allready an increase of fully vaccinated people ending up in hospitals. Timing matters...vaccines wane, older people do have an immunity system that does not do the best of the job any longer... -Duration of the crisis, bad communications...After "summer will save us" came "vaccines will save us" (and blame the unvaccinated if it does not work out that way...). Politics and embedded "experts", "press" did claim several times "the pandemic is over"...Also pushing the idea that "the virus has run out of variants" and is "only giving a slight cold" (after vaccination) was the "fake news" many governments did spread... I hate to see Portugal cases +25%, Denmark cases +30%, even Finland cases +13%...Germany did a very good job most of this pandemic now facing cases +31%, deaths +72%....These countries may be among the best in what they did to stop/limit this pandemic... Also New Zealand cases +30% while they did so good for so long ! Israel cases still going down -18% may offer hope that starting booster vaccines both in the right time and for a lot of people can make a difference... -Vaccines, boosters can come to late...get pointless...One of the major problems also pushing numbers up is Delta variant exploding into [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports (still) 151 sub-variants... -The better experts, WHO, has been warning we needed BOTH; vaccines AND restrictions...Politics ignored that...The US reopening its borders for international travel is just another act of taking this crisis not serious...Not limiting travel, mass (spread) events do cause more cases and even more variants... -Yet another factor resulting in both more cases and deaths is healthcare collapsing right here right now ! A lot of vaccinated do not think there is a need to get tested (based on the wrong government info !). They do get tested when symptoms get serious...but then end up in line for very limited care...High risk, bad pay, politics creating/worsening the crises, mean a lot of Heath Care Workers find other jobes with better pay and less risk...From GP to ICU capacity in most of the world did decrease since summer of 2020... The picture I get is (public) healthcare around the globe is in such a crisis that it will cost over 10 years to get back to pre-pandemic levels..Maybe up to 1% of HCW-ers did die (WHO numbers 80,000 to 180,000 may be an underestimate...Aging allready was a problem in lots of countries-also among healthcare. "Importing" nurses, doctors from countries we keep poor does worsen the global problem...). In 2019 27 million people worldwide faced starvation..it now is up to 45 million a.o. due to CoViD...It is the poor that pay the highest price...and it is a small rich elite that keeps causing the problems, crises.... -Flutrackers, twitter etc... DJ-Flutracker keeps reporting H5N1 spread in (wild) birds in many countries in Europe, Asia, Africa...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1 (for spread see [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_spread_of_H5N1[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_spread_of_H5N1 DJ-So far EurAsia-including Indonesia...putting Australia also at risk ! Also northern part of Africa...but we may miss cases further south...) H3N2 is believed to be the dominant (serious) other major health issue this winter in the north part of the globe...H5N6 is spreading in humans in China...but since testing did increase the picture may be unclear. H5N1 is a very major other risk... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream is presenting another nightmare- Delta variant with immunity evasion....; delta with N501Y (vaccine/immunity escape mutation) in Germany "6% and quickly growing" I read - I see it too. But what is weird, other Delta with N501Y have not taken off at all, see for example Turkey. Are there additional changes specific to this variant other than N501Y, especially in the german sequences? - this thread : DJ...Do we now see a German Delta variant ? Possibly ignoring vaccinations ? It would explain why cases are going up in parts of Europe with allready a high level of vaccinations..... Also from this link; I just noticed the big increase in US-deaths age 25-43 while checking - suicide, homicide slightly increasing, but mainly X42,X44 (ICD10) DJ Alarming US numbers, no doubt related to this pandemic ! Part of it may be "self medication" (a.o. wrong dodes of Ivermectin...always consult a doctor !), but also drugs use... Some twitter (I hope to find time to look further into German variant later on !) [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; Are we surprised at mediocre booster uptake after we were told that COVID-19 was no longer serious problem back in July? That was the message the U.K. public got. Boosters save lives but their job is made much harder with high transmission. DJ I am sorry to have to say it, but Dr.J.C. was often "over-optimistic"...Some veterenarians may have been correct in how they did see corona-virusses. Impossible to control in animals-so we kill all the animals to deal with the outbreak...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_diseases[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_diseases ...An immunity evading variant had to show up...may be showing up in Europe...Spread of CoViD-19 in animals also a.o. in US (and no doubt Canadian) deer... Small Western Europe BOOM! Cases there will soon break records, so the worry shifts to how much it spills to deaths. The top five biggest Western Europe countries are still holding in balance but France & Italy are joining Germany's increase which will soon negate UK's decrease. DJ, Glad we still kept testing going...Some "experts" only wanted to count hospital cases, ignore the rest...insane ! Statistics can be a usefull tool for detection of variants...Western Europe with both high vaccines and high new cases indicated some problems...not enough booster vaccines in time may be the minor one...Immunity evading variants may indicate this pandemic is still getting much worse ! DJ-I want to stay optimistic/realistic...We do not know how things will look like second half of 2022...Pressure is increasing to get better treatments, better vaccines...Having this many vaccines worldwide is a miracle in itself ! Most vaccines do have an (limited) effect...but they may be the best we have ! International cooperation can make a major change ! I would love to see Israel and Iran working together to find better vaccines and treatments...US, Russia, China, India, EU increasing production/distribution capacity ! The lack of cooperation (for wich I blame the US and UK) is a very major problem ! [url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; “Hunger – defined as not having enough to eat sometimes or often during the previous week – has been reported between 19% and 29% of Black households with children over the course of the pandemic. This compares with 7% to 14% of white American families. DJ; Here in western Europe things are far from perfect...but what is wrong with the US ????? Totally unacceptable !!! Mass vaccination walk-up site had over 400 people lined up for kids 5-11 #COVID19 vaccine this morning before it even opened—families have been camping & waiting here almost 4 hours since 6am! But they have only 300 doses all day. They just ran out of dose slots in <1 hour! DJ Crazy !!! Most people do want vaccines, follow clear rules...the major problem is in politics ! Some NL twitter call for action NOW !!! Repeat a call for a 4 week lockdown...NL "politics" will refuse to call a lockdown a lockdown...even if bodies are piling up...If the Delta-variant detected in Germany is indeed "good" in evading immunity we face an even worse part of this pandemic...Only lockdown-like scenario's can be of use... But since that would mean politics/strategies failed ego's may get in the way.... -Three video's ; Dr.John Campbell overoptimistic on "highly effective new antiviral" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMfjtgli55Y[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMfjtgli55Y ; Protectors from hospitalization, the story so far Oral meds than can be prescribed from home with onset of symptoms Molnupiravir, approved by MHRA Fluvoxamine is approved by the Food and Drug Administration as an antidepressant Doctors already can prescribe it off-label — using their clinical judgment Ivermectin, Together trial results not yet released PFIZER’S NOVEL COVID-19 ORAL ANTIVIRAL TREATMENT CANDIDATE REDUCED RISK OF HOSPITALIZATION OR DEATH BY 89% IN INTERIM ANALYSIS OF PHASE 2/3 EPIC-HR STUDY DJ The anti-virals have to be given in time by a doctor...so you need the medication, the doctor, the patient getting tested in time, the info being there...Yes better treatments will make a difference, but increase of cases (possibly an explosion of cases) will undo the gains... Another video [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oap6OX_AkLo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oap6OX_AkLo Alexander Mercouris on CIA top meeting Russian Intel-top (in New Delhi/India)...US worried about Ukraine moving towards restarting a war with Russia...[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/republicans-urge-biden-send-us-troops-more-weapons-ukraine-amid-russian-invasion[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/republicans-urge-biden-send-us-troops-more-weapons-ukraine-amid-russian-invasion see also [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/11/us-acknowledges-a-tri-polar-world-.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/11/us-acknowledges-a-tri-polar-world-.html ... Some in the US leadership did learn controntation is only damaging the US. IF the US wants to remain a major global player (isolationism is another option...) it better work/talk with Russia, China, Iran, EU.... Still other countries may be pushing for confrontation. In history "starting a war" was the last step governments could think of in getting public support...Many countries now face very serious problems-in many fields-due to this pandemic. Creating money out of thin air has its limits; hyperinflation may be around the corner... The third video is; -Music; There's Got To Be A Morning After - Maureen McGovern [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KClpLzFftU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KClpLzFftU DJ-I do not believe in false hope, but I do believe in finding ways out of problems, human creativity....; There's got to be a morning after If we can hold on through the night We have a chance to find the sunshine Let's keep on lookin' for the light Oh, can't you see the morning after It's waiting right outside the storm Why don't we cross the bridge together And find a place that's safe and warm It's not too late, we should be giving Only with love can we climb It's not too late, not while we're living Let's put our hands out in time There's got to be a morning after We're moving closer to the shore I know we'll be there by tomorrow And we'll escape the darkness We won't be searchin' any more There's got to be a morning after (There's got to be a morning after) There's got to be a morning after (There's got to be a morning after) There's got to be a morning after (There's got to be a morning after) There's got to be a morning after (There's got to be a morning after) There's got to be a morning after Stay safe-the bad news is we may need to isolate again...but every tunnel has an end ! |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, A look at numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ showing 380,459 new cases, global trend +3%, 5,584 new reported deaths, trend -4% for monday november 8 (reflecting testing sunday for most of the planet using 0.00 hrs GMT so it does include 6-9 hrs of monday testing in the US...If I get that correct). In my opinion two main reasons why cases are going up again; -Reopening again to early.... -Delta+subvariants exploding... Blaming the unvaccinated in countries were over 90% of 12 y/o+ population did get fully vaccinated (Portugal a.o. lots of European countries see vaccination levels of 12 y/o+ over 80%) may be missing the point. In latest news I started immunity escape variant-info. Delta with N501Y mutation...Vaccines did buy time...nothing more ! Most countries did/do not start booster vaccines in time (NL may start next month....!!!!). A lot of the unvaccinated are under 18....the very loud group of anti-vax, pandemic deniers is in many European countries less then 5% of the population. In the US all of this pandemic has gone "political"... Fear may be a main reason for people claiming this pandemic, climate change etc. is not real. And I understand that fear ! So I want better communication-less confrontation ! There are lots of reasons why people-till now-did not get a vaccine. Offering a vaccine in a different way can help. Mobile vaccination points in buses in most of NL did see lots of people willing to get a vaccine-but not an appointment. Nasal spray may help people with fear of needles...In Israel Orthodox Jews did accept vaccines after major outbreaks in their community...like we now see major outbreaks in Orthodox Christian groups in NL-with vaccines at the GP making it easier to get accepted... If you respect people they may accept vaccines more... A further look at numbers; Europe cases +8%, deaths +11%, Africa cases now +4%, deaths -8%. Asia still -2% for cases, deaths -15%...China cases +30% (last week 446, this week 580..so in reported cases still very limited. But China does only count symptomatic cases as cases...). Israel cases -11%, 4,102 last week-this week 3,640...Deaths -49% (last week 41, this week 21...) India reporting cases -16%....(I have very serious doubts on India numbers...it could be burocrazy is delaying reporting...it is a very big country...). In African countries I think there is spread from European countries to some African countries...testing was and is "very limited"... So worldwide again the two major factors for increase are reopening to early with an explosion of Delta+variants...mass-events with hospitals out of capacity allready... Still not any agreement on international increase of vaccinations...Moderna, Pfizer seem to have the legal position to stop EU countries exporting vaccines to countries we keep poor...So my "hope'/idea is Russia, China, Iran-Cuba, India, EU may start mass producing vaccines that CAN be used worldwide...The WHO may be building a vaccine production facility in Africa making a sort of copy of Moderna...Breaking the rules like rules were broken in the fight against AIDS/HIV... A lot of people want/demand a booster-vaccine (in NL)...need it to be protected. But it is our "government" that is stopping that ! [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports still at 151 delta+ variants but the real number of spreading/increasing Delta+ variants may be over 200....The "system" is crashing, not up to the explosion of mutations...the info days old at best...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#N501Y[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#N501Y ; N501Y denotes a change from asparagine (N) to tyrosine (Y) in amino-acid position 501.[224] N501Y has been nicknamed "Nelly".[214] This change is believed by PHE to increase binding affinity because of its position inside the spike glycoprotein's receptor-binding domain, which binds ACE2 in human cells; data also support the hypothesis of increased binding affinity from this change.[28] Molecular interaction modelling and the free energy of binding calculations has demonstrated that the mutation N501Y has the highest binding affinity in variants of concern RBD to hACE2.[1] Variants with N501Y include Gamma,[217][110] Alpha (VOC 20DEC-01), Beta, and COH.20G/501Y (identified in Columbus, Ohio).[1] This last became the dominant form of the virus in Columbus in late December 2020 and January and appears to have evolved independently of other variants.[225][226] as one of many major concerns...The wiki-link does not yet mention Delta+ also with "NellY 501"... In Israel you are seen as "unvaccinated" 180 days after the last vaccinations...many other countries have 270-360 days after the last vaccine...(and then also often Pfizer, Moderna...in international trade truck-drivers may need BOTH western vaccines AND Russian/Chinese vaccines to get over borders...since we still fail to reach international agreements on vaccines....(EMA has still to aprove Sputnik-V that some Eastern EU members did use...). I googled for test evading variants of SARS2...and it has been in the news a long time...showing up and disappearing again. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_testing has an overview of testing methods-and timing as a factor. (To early or to late may give false negative results in some testing...). [url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-02-18/New-coronavirus-variant-discovered-in-Finland-XZ5zGo8BLa/index.html[/url] or https://news.cgtn.com/news/2021-02-18/New-coronavirus-variant-discovered-in-Finland-XZ5zGo8BLa/index.html ; The variant, Fin-796H, showed similar mutations from variants discovered in the UK and South Africa but also its own characteristics. - The researchers of Vita Laboratories also said it is worth noting that the new variant could escape detection in a PCR test (Polymerase Chain Reaction test), which identifies specific genetic sequences in the virus. DJ So a change to 796-H (new introduction ?) may be linked to PCR-tests missing the infection ? Maybe also one other point-by now...mass media...Advertising value seems to be worth more then quality of information...in communications on this pandemic we may have to rethink "freedom of press" when it means making an income out of advertisments/sponsors even spreading fake news... If vaccines would be 100% protective against both severe disease AND spread maybe there would be a point in making vaccines mandatory-worldwide...Because in THAT scenario vaccines could end this pandemic...The present vaccines allow still a very high level of virus spread..We needed to "vaccinate all of the world" in just 3-4 months... After Cuba now also Venezuela starting to vaccinate children from 2 y/o+....(Cuban vaccines). -Flutrackers etc. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/hhs/927248-dr-rachel-levine-assistant-secretary-for-health-discusses-how-clinicians-should-counsel-their-patients-on-monoclonal-antibody-treatment-for-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/hhs/927248-dr-rachel-levine-assistant-secretary-for-health-discusses-how-clinicians-should-counsel-their-patients-on-monoclonal-antibody-treatment-for-covid-19 ; Good work! DJ-It is not all "doom and gloom" ; there must be lots of treatments being developed in many countries...Limiting social contacts/outdoor activities may reduce risks a lot ! (Get vaccinated !!!) [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/925752-the-great-resignation-goes-global[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/925752-the-great-resignation-goes-global ; .In social democratic Western Europe, a stronger safety net has led to somewhat less disruption in the workforce. But similar trends are at play: "Data collated by the OECD, which groups most of the advanced industrial democracies, shows that in its 38 member countries, about 20 million fewer people are in work than before the coronavirus struck," noted Politico Europe. "Of these, 14 million have exited the labor market and are classified as 'not working' and 'not looking for work.' Compared to 2019, 3 million more young people are not in employment, education or training." DJ; Of course this pandemic has very major economic fall-out ! [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; Parabolic spike in checkable deposits during pandemic to $3.47 trillion by 2Q21 (up from $800 billion in 3Q19) … 65% held by top 1 @biancoresearch @Bloomberg DJ It is showing how "global economy" "works" that in this pandemic the poor get even more poor, the rich even more rich... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ag/927243-first-diagnostic-test-for-chronic-fatigue-syndrome-identified[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ag/927243-first-diagnostic-test-for-chronic-fatigue-syndrome-identified ; Very interesting test. DJ Could be of value also in some long-CoViD cases (certainly when other tests do not detect any problems...patients get the story it is a psychological problem...). [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ag/927242-drugmaker-drops-cheaper-version-of-cancer-off-label-puberty-blocker-drug-leaving-patients-stuck-with-pricier-one-4-800-vs-48-000[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ag/927242-drugmaker-drops-cheaper-version-of-cancer-off-label-puberty-blocker-drug-leaving-patients-stuck-with-pricier-one-4-800-vs-48-000 ; https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...th-pricier-one Drugmaker drops cheaper version of drug, leaving patients stuck with pricier one November 6, 20217:00 AM ET Sydney Lupkin Public healthcare should be in public hands ! Not for profit !!!! It is one of the reasons why we are in this pandemic ! Healthcare for profit means a lot of people do not get the needed care, spread disease...This wrong choice is only making 0,1% of the people even more rich...The basic idea behind National Health Service (etc) was that PUBLIC health is in the interest of ALL !!! Why privatize everything when it is doing this much damage...(it is totally insane some countries were forced to-by global banks-to sell public water supply to Nestlé...do we never learn ? Good water in private hands becomes water for the rich...). [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/927235-singapore-unvaccinated-by-choice-covid-patients-must-pay-for-own-medical-bills-from-8-dec[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/927235-singapore-unvaccinated-by-choice-covid-patients-must-pay-for-own-medical-bills-from-8-dec ; From 8 December, COVID-19 patients who are unvaccinated by choice must pay for their bills incurred at hospitals and COVID treatment facilities, said the multi-ministry task force on COVID-19 (MTF) on Monday (8 November). DJ Choices have consequences...If you seek treatment for lung-cancer but will not give up smoking maybe you should end up at the end of the list...People have their own responsibilities... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/927225-how-an-outbreak-became-a-pandemic-a-chronological-analysis-of-crucial-junctures-and-international-obligations-in-the-early-months-of-the-covid-19-pandemic[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/927225-how-an-outbreak-became-a-pandemic-a-chronological-analysis-of-crucial-junctures-and-international-obligations-in-the-early-months-of-the-covid-19-pandemic ; Summary Evaluations can be usefull if they are open and honest...Lots of western countries rather blamed China, WHO then taking actions in time...Delta getting spread around the globe after the India-crisis in April shows "a lot of things went wrong"...(saving the ecomy...while destroying it !). [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/927223-study-flu-most-contagious-in-freezing-temperatures-covid-at-10-degrees[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/927223-study-flu-most-contagious-in-freezing-temperatures-covid-at-10-degrees ; When coronavirus first appeared, it was not thought that meteorological or temperature differences had a major effect on the virus' ability to spread. DJ EdwinSM also posted this...I think with variants of Covid (but also the flu) temperature ranges may differ...humidity may mean more...High humidity limits spread of aerosols/virus parts... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/927192-global-2021-2022-seasonal-flu-impact-on-public-health-systems-already-under-covid-19-strain-northern-hemisphere[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/927192-global-2021-2022-seasonal-flu-impact-on-public-health-systems-already-under-covid-19-strain-northern-hemisphere ;DJ Flu comes on top of CoViD with healthcare allready close to collapse...Delta+ variants will-I think-bring new lockdowns soon (to save Christmas...) maybe also limiting the flu... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920558-us-surveillance-data-shows-white-tailed-deer-exposed-to-sars-cov-2?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920558-us-surveillance-data-shows-white-tailed-deer-exposed-to-sars-cov-2?view=stream latest; New research from the US has shown that white-tailed deer are being infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 in humans. Antibodies were found in 40% of deer that were tested from January to March 2021 across Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois and New York state. A second unpublished study has detected the virus in 80% of deer sampled in Iowa between November 2020 and January 2021. DJ These findings are from before Delta-variants exploded ! I do not even want to think about how bad the spread in non-human hosts by now might be...The wider a virus can spread, reproduce in hosts, the more variants one should expect... A virus only spreading in humans may "need" human hosts to "survive"...A virus spreading in "trillions of hosts" will see(k) those hosts that offer the best hosting...We may have to face variants with an even much higher viral load....bringing much more severe disease...(SARS-2 becoming more like SARS-1, MERS in number of deaths...while spreading airborne.... Vaccines/immunity no longer a big factor...thousends of Delta+ variants...nightmare.) [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latest; Originally posted by gsgs It disappears. I don't know why . Tweets are being deleted. And I can't find anything on the web. RKI should make a statement Some of the experts should comment. And, of course, we need a public database to hold the sequences, as cog_uk , not just GISAID I just checked, just for N501Y in Germany and you do see a 2% peak. But last N501Y sequence is of october 25. Did you see the dates of the delta with N501Y? Looks like the sequences were completely deleted (for double checking ?). Pity i did not make a screenshot, but I think the sequences were more recent than oct 25. Do you have a screenshot ? DJ On N501Y in Delta the discussion may not even show up on twitter...Both news on Delta+ variants evading immunity and evading testing may be "to explosive"...Twitter is not "science" yet...The discussion moved to "other places on the internet...maybe linked to computer games ? ...to "hide" it from a wider audience. Experts need a safe place to discuss their findings... Some twitter-news [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; U.S. COVID update: Daily cases rise for second day in a row - New cases: 128,701 - Average: 74,280 (+1,811) - In hospital: 44,051 (-300) - In ICU: 11,505 (-152) - New deaths: 1,318 - Average: 1,222 (+31) More data: https://newsnodes.com/us DJ, to be realistic-The US may get even hit harder by Delta+variants the Europe...US has limited vaccinations, restrictions, communications...Brace yourself...Those are the trends all over Europe. Things don't look so good. DJ Lots of European countries = high vaccinations with still high increase of cases ! Portugal +23%, Denmark +37%... And [url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; BOT NETWORKS are now heavily pushing anti-vax content on Twitter, according to . Bots heavily RT each other—tricking to further promote the content. This matches what we at found for bots also pushing natural infection “herd immunity”. #COVID19 DJ A small group of very rich crazy immoral people have all the room to claim "smoking is good for you", "climate change is a hoax', "this pandemic is a powergrab".....Democracy becomes democrazy if we do not control the 0,1% ! -Video [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWw0Eafv4T4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWw0Eafv4T4 on UK booster vaccinations-ZOE statistics...most get Pfizer-some Moderna (1/2) dose...Boosters can buy extra time-we also need restrictions ! Music-since I am pretty shocked by latest developments something more serious; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7J86ndDCpk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7J86ndDCpk Abide With Me...from A Bridge to Far-Battle of Arnhem september 1944... DJ-We are losing the battle against this virus ! |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, First some ideas...you may not like them... -Most of the spread in high vaccinated countries most likely is from vaccinated hosts to vaccinated hosts...In a lot of people waning vaccine-started immunity protection may be under 50% for severe disease. It could be protection against catching/spreading the virus is under 10%...That is why we need more social distancing !!! Vaccination-passports may be selling an illusion, false safety... -If some Delta+ variants are getting very good in evading immunity do the present vaccines still have enough use ? Maybe only in combination with a lot of social distancing and as a form (best we may have) against severe disease (...at best). But we need BETTER vaccines !!! Otherwise investments, research should go more towards finding better treatments, better protection (masks/glasses...)...Vaccines are just one of the tools...Buying time at best...NOT the answer ! Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ are shocking ! Global cases up 7% !!!!Deaths -1%....Europe cases +13%, deaths +11%...Germany cases +45%...France +66%, Spain +18%, Italy +37%, Poland +72%...UK -15%, Ukraine -0,5% they had this explosion earlier... North America cases +0,6%...US cases +2%, Canada +7%...Deaths (still) -13%... Asia cases still -2%...Turkey +8%, Russia +1% (I did put Russia with Asia...both Turkey and Russia are both Europe AND Asia...). Vietnam +45%...South Korea +13%, Laos +47%...However India cases -12%, Philippines -46%, Israel -16%, Thailand -10%... I wonder what variant is spreading in SE Asia (Vietnam, Laos...but NOT (yet) in Cambodia cases -25%, Indonesia cases -19%...). China cases-still very limited-but up +20%...How one father in quarantine did get infected-spread it to his two children and started a chain reaction has been part of a study...the RNA made it possible to trace how the virus did spread...who infected who... South America cases +6% !!!! Brazil +5%, Chile +11%, Colombia +21%...Peru +11% (again !!), Bolivia +20%, Suriname +21% (they were just out of the last wave...). Africa cases also +6%...Ghana +31%, Tanzania +8%...Algeria +12% may indicate import from Europe...However Egypt cases -1%, Nigeria cases -17%, South Africa -16%...not a very clear picture...Kenya -18%, DRC (Congo, former Zaïre) -35%... Oceania is the only other region (with Asia) in wich cases are going down (-9%)...Australia -13%, Papua NewGuinea (PNG) -0,2%, however New Zealand +17%... These numbers indicate the next wave is getting global...But statistics, numbers, may from day to day...we have to look for longer term trends... Total reported cases yesterday november 9 was 461,660...deaths 7,692.. Top 3 for cases; #1 US 72,358 new cases...#2 Russia 39,160 cases, #3 UK 33,117. Germany, Turkey, Ukraine, Poland, France, India and NL make the rest of the top 10 for cases...so most of the high level/high numbers is in Europe... Deaths #1 US 1,339, #2 Russia 1,211 #3 Ukraine 833...India (480), Romania (462), UK (262), Poland (220), Brazil (214), Turkey (196), Germany (188) form the rest of the top 10... In the main stream media/"politics' the story blames "colder weather" and "people not following rules" , "unvaccinated" for the increase of cases....DJ-I want to keep it polite...but weather did not change that much yet for most of Europe...We are NOT in the middle of winter...Lifting restrictions is resulting in people not following rules...Most of the spread by now-with several countries vaccination 80%+ 12 y/o+ may be between the vaccinated... Blame-games do NOT help....Ignoring more infectious Delta+ variants makes matters worse....In many places hospitals are getting close to their limits...but still no stop on mass events... Here in NL booster vaccines, vaccines for children under 12 at best are discussed... We are moving towards the worst part in this pandemic so far... Some experts claim we may be in this pandemic till 2023...2024...I do not know that...The idea that we can deal with CoViD like we deal with the flu...booster vaccines...is optimistic/unrealistic. CoViD variants are changing full speed...we need better vaccines or lockdown... Living with this virus is suïcide, impossible... -Flutrackers etc. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/927350-panic-buying-in-china-after-ministry-of-commerce-notice-about-prepping-for-new-coronavirus-outbreaks-leads-to-rumors-of-war[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/927350-panic-buying-in-china-after-ministry-of-commerce-notice-about-prepping-for-new-coronavirus-outbreaks-leads-to-rumors-of-war ; What caused a bout of panic buying in China in November? DJ Communications can create panic instead of informing people.. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/927345-cidrap-long-covid-symptoms-may-have-causes-other-than-sars-cov-2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/927345-cidrap-long-covid-symptoms-may-have-causes-other-than-sars-cov-2 ; - The authors said that the study results could be explained by two main mechanisms, the first of which was that having lingering symptoms may have led participants to believe that they had COVID-19. DJ...I almost explode....If we can not find anything it is not there...pseudo science ! As if lots of long-CoViD patients are not doing all they can to get well again...We have seen this kind of "non-science" also in ME/CFS...Lyme-disease (with testing being a problem), chronic Q-fever, Legionella-long term cases..."post-viral-syndromes" ...If experts do not know what is causing the long term healthissues they could say "we do not know"...But claiming then we can not find anything so it must be psychology is an insult to the medical profession ! There is no clear definition for long-CoViD but it is clear tens of millions of people suffer...This kind of "non-science" is not meant to help those people but pushing for "living with the virus", "save the economy"...insanity ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/927344-cidrap-covid-19-surges-expand-in-europe[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/927344-cidrap-covid-19-surges-expand-in-europe ; Although some parts of Europe, especially eastern nations, have been in the grips of new spikes in COVID-19 activity over the past several weeks, nations like Denmark and France are now seeing impacts and taking steps to curb the spread. DJ Running behind the facts...incorrect info as well (boosters are only discussed in NL...)...Lifting restrictions again to early and new Delta+ variants are pushing up numbers...around the globe ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latest has "a fence at a Hamburg christmas market" ...DJ I was hoping to learn more on Delta+ variants evading immunity...the main reason why cases are going up this fast...(Germany did NOT lift most of their restrictions...still cases are going up...Also in some other countries...Portugal +45%, Ireland +31%, Denmark +33%..high level of vaccines...still cases going up this fast...) [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/927341-cidrap-news-scan-sars-cov-2-like-coronavirus-in-bats-global-flu-stays-low-probable-drc-ebola-cases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/927341-cidrap-news-scan-sars-cov-2-like-coronavirus-in-bats-global-flu-stays-low-probable-drc-ebola-cases ; SARS-CoV-2–like coronavirus may be widespread in bats in Southeast Asia DJ With cases again going up in parts of SE Asia (Vietnam +45%, Laos +47%, Myanmar +7%) one can not rule out another SARS could be starting...SARS-2 is the third Corona-virus causing major problems in less then 20 years...we may not know of smaller outbreaks-remaining limited...Another "SARS-3" virus would be very unwelcome... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/927327-british-columbia-announces-ban-on-mink-fur-farming-over-covid-19-fears[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/927327-british-columbia-announces-ban-on-mink-fur-farming-over-covid-19-fears ; British Columbia (BC) has announced it will phase out its mink fur farming industry. The Canadian province named the sector a public health risk due to COVID-19. - I wish mink farming had ended for the right reason. This could be only the beginning of banning human contact with non-human animal species due to 'what if' fears. Are deer next? Dogs, cats? The center also cautioned that such mutations could influence vaccine effectiveness. Update the vaccine. DJ; Of course putting animals in small cages for a short live-only to gas them has nothing to do "with respect for life"...We have to rethink meat-production (of course STOP mink (etc) -farming for furs...)...Also better healthcare for pets...seeing the family-including pets-as a "system"...not a bunch of individuals with no relations... One of the problems we now have to face is that studies on vaccine effectivity should be seen with the background of age, variants etc..."old news" that may not provide the info we may need to deal with the nearby future...That vaccines DID a good job does not mean they will be doing that same job with new Delta+ variants...nowcasting, monitoring...safety first. HCW-ers need the best protection available...so do other essential workers. But even there we have to monitor if vaccines (PPE etc) are doing the needed job...(In my idea the rest of society would need to be in lockdown for weeks...if we want to stop this pandemic from getting worse...but that is just my opinion...I am NOT an expert...). Twitter maybe more on Delta+ ? [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; U.S. COVID update: Daily cases rise for third day in a row - New cases: 81,636 - Average: 75,989 (+1,709) - In hospital: 45,042 (+991) - In ICU: 11,630 (+125) - New deaths: 1,724 - Average: 1,245 (+23) More data: https://newsnodes.com/us DJ Statistics sometimes not point all in the same direction...Worldometers includes overseas parts of the US in US numbers...uses GMT-(UK)time for 24 hrs...may result in some differences...ZOE, ONS, UK Public Health all report UK statistics in wich ZOE tracker app is working with millions of app-users resulting often in higher numbers (faster...). Stimulus checks combined with the lack of ability to spend on services and people preferring to stay at home rather than work on the factory floor Does it surprise anybody that demand for goods is higher than supply and triggers inflation? ht Bridgewater DJ Production capacity getting smaller, demand maybe even going up (US thanksgiving...) = prices going up...Also truckdrives, international transport running into pandemic related problems... (why can we not even agree on what vaccines should be accepted worldwide ?) Maybe the US should try to export those empty containers? I mean if there's no demand for anything else. Instead of just stacking them up? DJ, Maybe not such a bad suggestion... [url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; KIDS <12 are “CRITICAL HIDDEN SPREADERS”—New 226-person study found 2 school kids <12 set off a #COVID19 outbreak. ”Activities of children in the school spread the virus to their classmates (G2)”, then classmates’ families (G3) & factories (G4). #Vaccinate school-kids! DJ We do know young children spread the virus for over at least half a year...demand to vaccinate them has been going on for months...Only a few countries did start vaccinating (with a much lower dosage then used for adults) children under 12 (Cuba, Venezuela, Israel, China...). Yes vaccines do have risks...but sending children to schools unvaccinated may mean even more risks... [url]https://twitter.com/SimonReiss3[/url] or https://twitter.com/SimonReiss3 German twitter, main recent stories on "2G' strategy in schools (2G = vaccinated or earlier recent infection, 3G also has 24 hr limit recent negative testing...) not working...Children under 12 are not vaccinated-catch the virus at school-spread the virus into the family... As expected [url]https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html;jsessionid=EB06868A1237B1B327FE8272EDF43500.internet072[/url] or https://www.rki.de/EN/Home/homepage_node.html;jsessionid=EB06868A1237B1B327FE8272EDF43500.internet072 (German CDC) does not give much usefull info that we did not allready know of...Also [url]https://www.dw.com/en/top-stories/coronavirus/s-32798[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/top-stories/coronavirus/s-32798 does not help... [url]https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/varianten[/url] or https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/varianten NL-CDC "100% of cases in NL are Delta" ...For more-better info [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD may offer some info...but latest info is from october 26...we are now november 10.... -Dr. John Campbell on treatments [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufy2AweXRkc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufy2AweXRkc Ivermectin does work...Dr.J.C. explains how it works stopping infection... Good info ! Music-[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5TlpUF2GGw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5TlpUF2GGw Hot Shot - Karen Young...1978...(I hated it then..now it gets a different meaning...) Stay safe ! |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, I started today with adding music for the end of this update..."Take Good Care Of Yourself"...may be the motto for the coming months...Others taking care of you may be (very) limited.... -Numbers are grimm [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Global cases +9%, reported deaths +2%..... Top 3 for cases ; #1-US 94,376 (+8%), #2-Germany 45,416 (+58%), #3 UK 39,329 (-14%)... Deaths ; #1-US 1,493 (-7%), #2 Russia 1,239 (+3%), #3 Ukraine 815 (+25%)... Total reported cases worldwide 550,457, deaths 8,232 Europe cases +15%, deaths +12%, North America cases +6%, deaths -10%, Asia cases -2%, deaths -10%, South America cases & deaths +12%, Africa cases +5%, deaths +2%, Oceania cases -13%, deaths -22%... NOT GOOD AT ALL !!!! In total 95 countries reporting increasing cases, 85 increase in deaths (with at 123 the first country reporting a decrease of deaths...48 countries at 0%). -Twitter/Flutrackers; [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; "Findings show that the #Delta is transmitted between vaccinated inpatients with a high viral load & highlight the continued efficacy of masking & vaccination for the protection of health care personnel & the potential need for postadmission surveillance." DJ Vaccine passports are a sham, false security...Most of the spread is now in the vaccinated...Delta+ variants often both higher viral load AND better receptor binding means more and more severe cases/deaths in the vaccinated ! Winter surge is coming—and it won’t be gentle. Germany, Austria, & many other European countries reporting all time record high #COVID19 cases again. Bavaria (Munich region) has now officially declared a public health emergency disaster. This will happen in US+elsewhere too. DJ The picture is still mixed-most cases often in regions with low vaccination. But since boosters do not come in time cases also going up in more vulnarable groups (that should have had a booster vaccination last month...but did not get it ...why ???) B.1.640 has appeared very recently but has a very long branch length implying cryptic circulation or very recent emergence. It has an interesting spike profile (including Δ136-144, R346S, N394S, Y449N, F490R, N501Y, P681H) and the Alpha-like ORF8 truncation. DJ Link; [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/297[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/297 ; This has all the signs of the dreaded complete or near-complete escape variant -- R346, N394, Y449, F490, plus lots of bad NTD mutations, i.e. I would be very highly surprised if this shows less neutralization reduction than the current champion C.1.2. It really needs to be designated ASAP so that it is on people's minds and it is properly monitored, even if it eventually goes nowhere rather than being a January 2020-type situation. DJ The B.1.640 is a new variant-not Delta...but Delta subvariants AY.4.2 (and a few others also going up...). Why is immunity escape variants NOT top of the news ? Why many countries all come up with "100% Delta" as if it was just one sort of Delta ? Why news is at [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports and at twitter ? Embedded press, embedded "experts" and corrupt politicians are to blame for this pandemic ! DJ-I never was the most clever person at school, do not know much about virology etc...How can it be that I was right in; -Virusses spreading in non-human hosts on a larger/major scale ? -Variants becoming evading immunity-infecting people over and over again ? -Combination of both (non-human hosts and immunity evasion) resulting in a pandemic that is "very hard/impossible" to control ? Why was info on corona-viral diseases in animals simply ignored ? Why was SARS-1, MERS not related to SARS-2 (with the US pushing non-sense of lab-escape...The US did send more risky gain-of-function studies to Wuhan...then blaming China of keeping things secret...China did publish a lot of info...but not in English so spoiled "experts" did not bother to take a look...). By now we know SE Asia bats have a lot of corona-virusses...some of them may not be having problems jumping to other species...Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam now again have high increase of cases...Could it be SARS-3 ? [url]https://twitter.com/SimonReiss3[/url] or https://twitter.com/SimonReiss3 ; Small selection of what happens w/ endemic Covid: 1 SARS-CoV-2 will not become benign 2 see a lot of maimed people w/ autoimmunity. 3 vascular injury&"string vessels" blocking capillaries 4 decreases in life expectancy 5 masks&boosters https://wsws.org/en/articles/2021/11/10/leon-n10.html… by DJ [url]https://twitter.com/IsabellWelpe[/url] or https://twitter.com/IsabellWelpe Warning...lots of good info may NOT be available in English....google translate may help...but why some countries ignore other languages ? (I admit my French, Spanish, Italian is not "top" any longer...but German and English may still be okay...). Dass Covid den Gehirnstoffwechsel beschädigen kann, auch bei leichteren Verläufen, ist lange bekannt. Das will in Deutschland kaum jemand hören. Konzept ist „tot oder genesen“. Aber bei Kindern sollten wir so fair sein, jede unnötige Infektion zu vermeiden DJ translation ; "Nobody wants to hear bad news" ....Live with (anti)"social media" as a never ending popularity contest...Long CoViD patients-just like many others-being treated as "mental cases" because money matters more then people... Is there a way out of this pandemic ? YES !!! But it is not easy... -STOP THE SPREAD could mean long term social restrictions...creating social bubbles..."cells"...that can be isolated if infected (but most of the time will recover !) -Better treatments ! A lot of findings did see good results from some available medications at limited costs -Boosting immunity...so if you get infected you may not get that ill... What is stopping these three simple steps ? "Saving the economy" short term thinking...it is destroying the economy but "some do not want to listen"... Just like in climate collapse there are lots of steps...but if you deny the problem the problem only gets worse... „Those are reinfections within 1 year and 1 month … that’s not good.“ says immunologist ...is the alternative...people, (also animal hosts...) getting infected over and over again...It may you not kill you the first time...or the second time...More children age 0-19 died of #COVID19 in England in October than any past month of the pandemic. Plus—kids hospitalizations & #LongCovid also ~highs. But UK still hasn’t approved vaccines for kids 5-11, nor 2nd shots for teens. HT @Antonio_Caramia http://ilpandacentrostudio.it/uk.html Flutrackers-info overload... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/ideas-on-how-to-protect-yourself-from-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov/social-distancing-what-does-that-mean/927443-berkely-ca-44-football-players-staff-positive-for-covid-in-spite-of-99-vaccination-rate[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/ideas-on-how-to-protect-yourself-from-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov/social-distancing-what-does-that-mean/927443-berkely-ca-44-football-players-staff-positive-for-covid-in-spite-of-99-vaccination-rate ; The statement provided to SFGATE strongly insinuates that Cal football players and staff members have not been mindful of typical precautions after exposure to COVID-19. "Cases emerged in an environment of ongoing failure to abide by public health measures. People in the program did not: Get tested when sick, stay home when sick, [or wear] masks indoors. "These simple measures keep people safe," the statement continues. "Failing to do so results not only in individual infections, sickness, and worse, but also threatens the safety of all around them – especially those with compromised immune systems." ... Cal's football players are 99% vaccinated, the school has said, and its staffers also have a similarly high vaccination rate. During a press conference on Tuesday evening, Cal Athletic Director Jim Knowlton could not confirm how many of those players were asymptomatic, or at least unaware that they were potentially exhibiting COVID symptoms. None of the players or staffers have been reported as seriously ill, which is line with the efficacy of the COVID-19 vaccines... DJ The general public message has been "vaccinations open doors" "living with the virus-if you get vaccinated" ...but if people do so "they did not follow the rules" ...political failure ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latests; Saw this nightmare family visit to Florida on a prayer forum: - Other parts of Germany do not Have N501Y. No sequences for Thuringen as far as i can see [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/filedata/fetch?id=927412&d=1636573644[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/filedata/fetch?id=927412&d=1636573644 DJ Berlin, Sachsen/Saxonia Delta subvariant with N501Y mutation (evading immunity...) [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#N501Y[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#N501Y [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/927429-after-weeks-of-declines-u-s-covid-cases-have-stalled-at-a-high-level-%E2%80%98the-ers-are-packed%E2%80%99[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/927429-after-weeks-of-declines-u-s-covid-cases-have-stalled-at-a-high-level-%E2%80%98the-ers-are-packed%E2%80%99 ; After weeks of declines, U.S. Covid cases have stalled at a high level: ‘The ERs are packed’ PUBLISHED WED, NOV 10 202110:34 AM ESTUPDATED 3 HOURS AGO
more.. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/afte...box=1636558549 DJ US cases going up last 4 days...Worldwide we were hardly out of the last wave...so a new wave on top of allready high numbers with hospitals/care in crisis...(NPI/lockdown may limit flu...problem is politics often still "look the other way"...). [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926123-germany-records-highest-daily-covid-19-infections-since-mid-may-october-23-2021-surge-continues?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926123-germany-records-highest-daily-covid-19-infections-since-mid-may-october-23-2021-surge-continues?view=stream latests; 5-10% N501Y alone or in combination with Delta-specific mutations T19R or L452R, last sequences of late October - See also Discussion thread: N501Y in Delta-like background emerging in Germany (Saxony, Berlin) ? - Germany coronavirus: Record rise prompts warning of 100,000 deaths DJ While "embedded fools" keep blaming unvaccinated/weather the terrible reality is yet some other-even worse-variants are spreading. Vaccination may be of limited use...(and weather is not a major factor...just an excuse for inaction...). Both Delta+ (with N501Y) and B.1.640 (new variant) and other variants may be "increasing/exploding"...Testing going up in many places (positive results often over 10 to 15%...and that is high/bad !!!-sequencing still taking much to long ! The 5-to-10% in Germany with N501Y are from the last week of last month...some of it two weeks old !!!) [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/africa-all-other-diseases/926063-drc-media-an-unknown-disease-has-killed-165-children-in-two-months-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-october-22-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/africa-all-other-diseases/926063-drc-media-an-unknown-disease-has-killed-165-children-in-two-months-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-october-22-2021 DJ-Unknown disease killing children in DRC in high numbers...sort of "child-malaria" ??? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/927394-us-food-banks-struggle-to-feed-hungry-amid-surging-prices[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/927394-us-food-banks-struggle-to-feed-hungry-amid-surging-prices ; DJ Poverty is a crime against humanity ! If 0,1% is allowed to "own this planet" this is "democrazy" not democracy ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/927378-bubonic-plague-found-in-colorado-cat[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/927378-bubonic-plague-found-in-colorado-cat ; A house cat near Elk Meadows Open Space in Evergreen tested positive for bubonic plague in late October, authorities said Monday. DJ Flutrackers full of H5N1 cases in birds in Europe, (South) Africa, Asia...Plague also in humans in parts of Africa (DRC-Congo, Madagascar)...other diseases increasing due to healthcare being overrun by CoViD... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/927371-chemically-different-new-meth-causing-severe-mental-illness[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/927371-chemically-different-new-meth-causing-severe-mental-illness ; Methamphetamine is chemically different than it was a decade ago, and the drug is creating a wave of severe mental illness and worsening the homelessness problem, the Atlantic reports. For years, methamphetamine has been made from ephedrine, a natural substance commonly found in decongestants and derived from the ephedra plant, which was used as a stimulant and an anti-asthmatic. Another way to make methamphetamine, used by the Hell’s Angels and other biker gangs, which had dominated a much smaller meth trade into the ’80s, has surfaced. Its essential chemical was a clear liquid called phenyl-2-propanone—P2P. Many combinations of cheap, accessible chemicals could be used to make P2P... DJ; "Liberal politics" and "open borders" made NL a narco-state...I would not be surprised that after the two major NL banks were caught white-washing criminal money also major NL political parties/"politicians" do get financed by drug-trade..Worldwide most likely not only the CIA is financing part of its operations by drug-trade...Several (some jihadi but also other) terrorist/ "rebel" groups also are involved in a.o. drug trading...(but also slave trade may be increasing...Turkey did give IS room to trade in Iraqi-Kurdish slaves a few years back...also in Libya several "rebelgroups" were "selling people" from African countries trying to get to Europe.. In Mexico lots of drug-gangs use central American refugees (trying to get away from drug wars there) as transport for drugs into the US (or kill the refugees that refuse to be used as a "mule"...). Of course trade in babies for adoption is also still going on...with eastern European women being used for "production"...Selling human organs (from people) also has a "market" ...This world is pretty sick... Blind-greed based-unbalanced capitalism may be just as deathly as dogmatic communism or anti-science "religion".... -Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rZZTPp-eYU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7rZZTPp-eYU Update from Kyle. Music; Take Good Care Of Yourself - 1975 - The Three Degrees [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4m1tbJnyZI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4m1tbJnyZI |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
In latest news CRS,DrPH did put an article on SARS-2 reservoir in white-tailed deer..I did react on that there. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White-tailed_deer[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White-tailed_deer are widespread in the America's but also imported in Europe, New Zealand...I do not think SARS will NOT spread further from these deer...Deer get eaten by cat-like, dog-like, mice/rat-like animals-all known to at least able of catching the virus. Since the study was early this year most of the deer may have had Alpha-variant etc. NOT yet Delta+ variants...My impression (waiting to get "science" within a few months) is Delta+ variants are even better in spreading in non-human hosts... With Delta+ and other (new) variants increasing immunity evasion, spread in non-human hosts, even higher viral load, most of the spread without symptoms and very likely most in the vaccinated groups this pandemic is moving towards the worst case scenario. Surviving this may mean limiting as much as possible "live" contacts outside the bubble. For now vaccines still may limit severe disease. Still some countries are (again) very slow in booster vaccines, vaccinating children...this will worsen the pressure on healthcare that is allready close to collapse in many places. [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/12/three-week-partial-lockdown-starts-saturday-cafes-close-7-pm[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/12/three-week-partial-lockdown-starts-saturday-cafes-close-7-pm "Partial lockdowns" do NOT work !!!! Keeping cinema's, theatre open but limiting openinghours for some shops may indicate politics simply does not get it still... In a pandemic there is only ONE priority-getting this pandemic under control ! Politics has failed. We have to fall back to survival mode... (end of part 1) |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
part 2, DJ Veteransday in the US did result in less testing-so lower number of cases reported from the US. In [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ now at #1 is Germany reporting 50,377 cases...(US 43,596, UK 42,408 cases also very worrying). Deaths Russia 1,237, Ukraine 652, USA 539, India 501... In trends global cases +8%, deaths +2%. A look at some central European countries. Germany cases +59%, deaths +51%, NL cases +48%, deaths +32%, Poland cases +66%, deaths +82%, Denmark cases +29%, deaths +108% (!!!!) even Portugal-highly vaccinated cases still +42%, deaths +34%... In France the B.1.640 variant seems to be limited [url]https://news.in-24.com/coronavirus/273383.html[/url] or https://news.in-24.com/coronavirus/273383.html in Germany immunity escaping Delta+ variants are "out of control".... These Delta+ variants are spreading all over Europe-will increase also in the US etc. European cases +15%, deaths +10% from an allready high level... In other regions South America cases +16%, deaths +7%...In Asia I watch Laos cases +20%, Vietnam cases +35%, Myanmar cases +7%...SARS-2?CoViD 19 most likely was linked to bats in the Chinese/Laos border area. Bats seem to be very good hosts for corona virusses...may bring more unwelcome surprises ! Israel cases/deaths -16% indicating booster vaccines make a difference. New Zealand had 5 deaths last week, cases still going up +16%... What is happening in Germany-region ???? Some twitter; [url]https://twitter.com/IsabellWelpe[/url] or https://twitter.com/IsabellWelpe ; Während in Köln die Menge zum Karneval tobt, herrscht hier Katastrophenfall und ich muss eine Ausnahmegenehmigung erwirken, damit ein schwerkranker Patient seinen Geburtstag im Krankenhaus wenigstens mit EINEM lieben Angehörigen feiern darf. Meine Kollegin hat vor Wut geweint. DJ-translation; While in Cologne the masses were celebrating carnaval here we are in the catastrophe-phase and I have to make an exeption so a very severe Covid-patient can at least have one familymember at the hospitalbed to celebrate his/her birthday. My collegue cried out of anger. Der neue RKI Wochenbericht ist draußen. Der für mich eindrücklichste Absatz: - es ist zu befürchten, dass Intensiv-Kapazitäten überschritten werden - auch Geimpfte und Genesene sollten jetzt alle notwendigen Kontakte reduzieren DJ The new RKI (German CDC) week-info is out. IC capacity may run out, also all vaccinated and recovered should limit contacts... [url]https://twitter.com/SimonReiss3[/url] or https://twitter.com/SimonReiss3 ; Man erwarte "einen Kollaps des notfallmedizinischen Versorgungssystems" in München, sagt OB Dieter Reiter heute auf einer PK zur Corona-Lage im Münchner Rathaus. Die 380 Intensivbetten in der Stadt seien "voll". DJ It is expected emergency care system will collapse in Munich viceMayor (of Munich) is saying in a press conference in Munich City Hall. The 380 IC-beds are full... [url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 ; Infection with Cov2 in preparation for VoC was folly. Pursuit of herd immunity by infection has been folly. and; There are SO many of us with underlying conditions. It's bad enough to deny hundreds of deaths each day, and pretend life is pretty normal, but to pretty much say "oh well they weren't healthy most of those kids that died anyway" Fucking sociopathic and; Boris Johnson's brother was made a director of Dyson just two months before the PM ordered 10,000 Dyson ventilators on 26th March 2020 with no tender Jo Johnson became Director a month *after* Covid reached the UK #ArrestThePM #CrimeMinister #ToryCorruption #JohnsonTheCorruptPM DJ The criminal politicians in power did see this pandemic as another oppertunity for profis...do not give a .... for public healthcare, are to stupid to understand pandemic risks... [url]https://www.dw.com/en/5-reasons-germanys-covid-19-infections-are-soaring/a-59793087[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/5-reasons-germanys-covid-19-infections-are-soaring/a-59793087 ; unvaccinated, waning immunity, less restrictions, Delta+ more infectious, season... DJ-Why not limit unvaccinated more if they are such a high risk ? Why not start boosters in time ? Why not put more restrictions ? Certainly when you see Delta+ is more infectious ? And please...people go out to celebrate Carnaval...'winter around the corner...virus looking at the calander-non-sense"! Political inaction and downright stupidity is also increasing again this wave number ? ....We need a government for the people not a government for the rich... [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/12/netherlands-launch-controversial-2g-coronavirus-pass-rules-lockdown[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/12/netherlands-launch-controversial-2g-coronavirus-pass-rules-lockdown is totally pointless when most of the spread is IN THE VACCINATED !!!!! [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and senior aides holed up in a nuclear bunker to simulate an outbreak of a vaccine-resistant COVID-19 variant to which children are vulnerable, describing such an eventuality as ‘the next war’ https://reut.rs/3D8VSFr - SARS-2 Immunity is retained in... mild #COVID convalescents 12 m. post-infection... Despite this, changes in the amino acid sequence of the Spike antigen that are present in current VoC result in virus evasion of nAbs, as well as evasion of functional T cell responses." - "At 12 m. after mild-#COVID >90% of convalescents remained seropositive for RBD-IgG & 88.9% had circulating RBD-specific memory B cells.
Despite this, only 51.2% convalescents had serum neutralising activity vs. homologous live-#SARSCoV2, which decreased to... 16.2% vs. #Delta... [url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ ; Few people knew that the New York City hospital where I was treated for Ebola had more doctors than Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone—the 3 hardest-hit countries of the Ebola outbreak—COMBINED. And SO many frontline providers in those countries died of Ebola during the outbreak. 5-10% N501Y alone or in combination with Delta-specific mutations T19R or L452R, last sequences of late October DJ A look at flutrackers ; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926123-germany-records-highest-daily-covid-19-infections-since-mid-may-october-23-2021-surge-continues?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926123-germany-records-highest-daily-covid-19-infections-since-mid-may-october-23-2021-surge-continues?view=stream ... DJ DJ No new info on the level of immunity escape Delta+ in Germany but the very high level of cases in Europe is very alarming !!! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/927447-us-poverty-rate-higher-than-russia-phillipines-bosnia-china-etc[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/927447-us-poverty-rate-higher-than-russia-phillipines-bosnia-china-etc ; link [url]https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/poverty-rate-by-country[/url] or https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/poverty-rate-by-country ; Poverty is a state of being in which a person lacks the income (or other means of support) to reliably meet their basic personal needs, such as food, shelter, and clothing. Poverty exists in every country in the world, though it is a more pressing issue in some countries than in others. The poverty rate is the number of people (usually expressed as a percentage) in a given demographic group whose income falls below the poverty line. DJ In these statistics 17,8% of US population lives in pverty, In Germany it would be 14,8%, NL 13,6%, UK 18,6%, France 13,6%, Australia 12,4%, South Africa 55,5%, Brazil 26,5%, India 21,9%..."other means of support" could be the main point ! In most countries basic public healthcare is free/government organized...Often also public transport, education, housing has government role...See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/927448-us-october-2021-shadowstats-alternate-unemployment-is-25-1[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/927448-us-october-2021-shadowstats-alternate-unemployment-is-25-1 ....[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/927449-shadowstats-inflation-rate-almost-15-using-1980-based-methodology[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/927449-shadowstats-inflation-rate-almost-15-using-1980-based-methodology .... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/927498-eid-journal-reassortant-influenza-a-h1n1-pdm09-virus-in-elderly-woman-denmark-january-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/927498-eid-journal-reassortant-influenza-a-h1n1-pdm09-virus-in-elderly-woman-denmark-january-2021 ; Today we have a follow up report on the Denmark case from last winter, that reveals that virus was a novel reassorted H1N1v, comprised of the human A(H1N1)pdm09 virus with the NS gene from an EA-like H1N1 swine virus. Aside from this being Denmark's 1st confirmed swine variant infection of a human, this report is notable because the patient (who had multiple comorbidities) was in a pandemic lockdown at the time of her infection, had very little outside contact, and was one of only 46 confirmed flu cases in Denmark during the 2020-2021 flu season. Exactly how she came to be infected with a novel swine variant virus under these conditions isn't known, but the author does dangle a tantalizing possibility; she lived roughly 2 km from a pig farm, and her ". . . residence was downwind of the pig herd most days preceding clinical symptoms." First, some excerpts from the research letter, then I'll return with a short review what we know about the possibility of long-range airborne spread of influenza (and other) viruses. - Conventional wisdom says that influenza viruses only travel a short distance in the air, are quickly deactivated by desiccation and/or UV rays from the sun, and that they aren't truly `airborne'. Like almost every hard-and-fast rule, however, there appear to be some notable exceptions. We've seen studies linking infected `dust' (dried feces, feathers, etc.) from poultry farms - often propelled by large exhaust fans - being carried several kilometres by the wind and then infecting other nearby farms. And we've seen numerous (mostly anecdotal) reports - particularly out of Asia - of people who either lived near, or simply walked past a live bird market, contracting avian influenza (see J. Infection: Aerosolized H5N6 At A Chinese LBM (Live Bird Market). The science of all of this has a name; aerobiology – the study of how bacteria, fungal spores, pollen and even viruses can be passively transported in the air. And while some might consider it `fringe' science, we've seen a number of serious studies over they years. DJ Virus (via dust) in the wind would be unwelcome... -Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObTAOvgd_JE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObTAOvgd_JE Dr.J.C. video on similarity between Pfizer Covid medication and Ivermectin did see Facebook censorship....Final fact Fluvoxamine also has 3 fluorine atoms as does PF-07321332 DJ If it works it works ! We may need all the medication we can get because things are going very, very wrong !!! Music-The Police-i Can'T Stand Loosing You - 1979 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nH0vjLwMyc4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nH0vjLwMyc4 Stay safe & sane.... |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/fauci-warned-about-coronaviruses-2003-didnt-act-it[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/fauci-warned-about-coronaviruses-2003-didnt-act-it ; According to testimony in 2003, Fauci confirmed SARS was an emerging infectious disease of which data indicated it was tied to the coronavirus, the cause of 10-20 percent of common colds. “It has the capability of being a very severe syndrome,” Fauci continues. “The death rate in this is 3.5 percent, which may sound small, but when you think about the possibility of infecting hundreds of millions of people, this can turn out to be a major public health threat. In fact, in parts of the world it already is leading to such draconian measures as quarantines and isolation in several countries.” SARS-2 should not have been such a major surprise...it was and is the political inaction and inability to understand the very serious risk that did make SARS-2 the worst pandemic in recent history. On looking what further to expect it may be usefull to look at [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_1[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_1 and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome both much more deathly... SARS-1, MERS, SARS-2 are all RNA-Corona virusses-but different ones. It is even unclear how MERS does spread (camel contact and very limited human-to-human). The higher number of people dying from it may be related to much less testing, much smaller spread...SARS-1 and SARS-2 have 79% of the RNA in common...so far. Point is there is not "one SARS-2 virus" any longer.... [url]https://innovationorigins.com/en/corona-in-europe-the-unexpected-return/[/url] or https://innovationorigins.com/en/corona-in-europe-the-unexpected-return/ ; Thank you for sharing this story! However, please do so in a way that respects the copyright of this text. If you want to share or reproduce this full text, please ask permission from Innovation Origins (partners@innovationorigins.com) or become a partner of ours! You are of course free to quote this story with source citation. Would you like to share this article in another way? Then use this link to the article: https://innovationorigins.com/en/corona-in-europe-the-unexpected-return/ Whereas in the Netherlands some overlap with the infection map can be seen, West Flanders unfortunately proves that even averages of well over 90% cannot prevent fierce outbreaks of the highly contagious Delta variant. Time for a booster? It would appear so. DJ High level of vaccinations did not stop Delta+ variants...Booster vaccinations, vaccinating children between 5 and 12 may make some difference-but timing matters and certainly for older people boosters may need up to 3 weeks to be effective... What WOULD help is almost total lockdown....at least that would stop the spread most in human hosts....but politics does not want to go that far...Even limiting travel is asking to much.... So this pandemic is getting very much worse !!!! Politics switching from doing to little to late to even doing less even later...the gap between reality and "politics" in this pandemic has become an abyss....Running behind the facts did become "loss of contact".... Delta+ variants (other variants like B.1.640/France/CongoDRC seem to not become major players yet) are evolving towards immunity evasion. Vaccines did buy us time but present vaccines may become useless within months....Still GET VACCINATED if you did not do so allready !!!! For now it may be the best option !!!!! [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/11/articles/animals/dogs/more-about-a-potential-dog-origin-coronavirus-in-people/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/11/articles/animals/dogs/more-about-a-potential-dog-origin-coronavirus-in-people/ ; The fact that the person had only mild disease is important for context – very rarely do people with mild disease get tested, and even more rarely would a hunt for a new virus be performed in people with mild disease that had negative tests for the “usual suspects.” But they did test this person, and they once again found that the virus looks like it came from dogs (at some point), and it was found half a world away the same year. - DJ We may have been underestimating corona-virusses untill now (even with SARS-1 and MERS as warnings). Also detection of coronavirusses in bats in the Laos-China border area should be a very serious warning; SARS-3 may not be that far away.... At present the burden SARS-2 is for healthcare and nations is allready increasing risks from all kinds of other diseases. From the plague, ebola, polio to measles and malaria...diabetes and TB(C).... The duration of this very major healthcrisis is also becoming a very major factor. Since a lot of experts showed to be "unrealistic optimistic" , politics failed to communicate the correct message. Support for NPI has gone in most of the public...sense of security due to being vaccinated opened the doors for yet another wave. Blame-games do not help...Here in NL most people that do want to get (another) vaccine still can not get one (children under 12, booster vaccines may start "later this month on a very limited scale"...)...QR-code vaccine passports are criminal-with most of the spread in the vaccinated... The WHO warned Europe may see another half a million deaths before spring due to CoViD may have been even overoptimistic...Healthcare is close to collapse wich will result in much more people dying...and not only in Europe. The peak of the Spanish Flu may have been in 1918-1919. A "few waves" killing many...but resulting in "group immunity" after that. SARS-2 is worse...forget about "group immunity"....but "living with the virus" with this high speed mutations, evading immunity is also not realistic... (Inter)National lockdowns are political impossible..."would destroy the economy" as if an out of control pandemic is saving the economy... Will "we all get the virus" ? I hope to avoid that ! It does NOT bring any better protection most likely it will cause a lot of damage (all over the body). So an option remains; protecting yourself/your bubble the best you can...for a number of years. I would love to believe better treatments (Ivermectin) could make a difference...but with healthcare on its knees allready HCW-ers will have a hard job limiting damage... We needed to STOP THE SPREAD but "we" did not....Corona virusses may have been having a reservoir in lots of non-human hosts for ages. It may have jumped to humans from time to time (corona-cold virusses history...) but most of the time with limited damage. Better testing/sequencing could have provided us with early warning. The SARS-1, 2003 outbreak did give us more then enough reasons to do so...but we did not... Now "we" are paying the price. Just like in climate collapse, those who did hardly any damage pay the highest price... This pandemic has lessons to learn. We need much better preventative healthcare ! Not only for SARS...also preventing diabetes, obesity etc...not "blame-games" but better communications and respect ! The money is there but most of it "parked" with 0,1% of the global population...Since it is also in their interest-human survival-we have to "reorganize society" ... end of part 1... |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
part 2-numbers [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l53JH8DWcBg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l53JH8DWcBg Prof. Tim Spector talking about UK numbers...There seems to be a discussion on these numbers...ZOE-tracker app sometimes noticing different trends then Office of National Statistics and UK.GOV... Numbers, statistics, can give a lot of info but you need background info to get the right perspective. US Veteransday resulting in less testing, lower US numbers... [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table Global numbers; cases 528,511 weekly trend +8%, deaths as far as reported 7,620 trend +3%... Europe did report 303,662 of those cases-trend +14%, Europe deaths 3,702-trend +8%...North America trends cases +7%, deaths -7%, South America cases +16%, deaths +13%...pressure of the pandemic may be shifting from Europe to the America's.... Cases top 3; #1 US 90,208 (+8%), #2 Germany 48,184 (+54% !!!!), #3 UK 40,375 (-6%) Deaths top 3; #1 Russia 1,235 (=3%), #2 US 987 (-8%), #3 Ukraine 750 (+19%)... For new cases NL did get to #7 ! Brazil, Poland, India reporting less cases....[url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 ; AY.4.2 and AY.4.2.1 both have Y145H so I'm using s:Y145H to see how fast its spreading - 16% as of today in the UK. Can't help feeling ad Delta, particularly AY.4 went down AY.4.2 went up yeah I know some of its just reclassification math. DJ The bad news is increasing cases no longer only can be explained by low vaccinations, waning immunity, children not getting vaccinated (a major part of the unvaccinated ARE children !!!). Parts of Belgium with over 90% vaccination do see explosive increases...Portugal +39%, Denmark +42%...Israel cases now -7% (last week 3,583, this week 3,324...problem with Israel is several groups are not willing to get vaccinated...boosters do have their limits...). [url]https://twitter.com/IsabellWelpe[/url] or https://twitter.com/IsabellWelpe ; With vaccine effectiveness waning, case numbers rising, and no concerning safety signals from boosters so far, is it time to recommend a booster for all adults? Here I argue yes. Plus, simplifies guidance.
Latest: https://blogs.jwatch.org/hiv-id-observations/index.php/time-to-simplify-the-covid-19-vaccine-policy-authorize-a-booster-dose-for-anyone-who-wants-one/2021/11/12/… DJ On this twitter also frustration on inflexibility on boosters...Only boosters after at least 6 months since last vaccination may miss the urgency. Vaccines NEVER promissed to end this pandemic ! It does limit disease and that allready in itself is far better then we hoped for just over 1 year ago !!! 75% (Worst Case) 85% (Mittlerer Case) 95% (Best Case) Realität: 65,7% https://rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Downloads/Vorbereitung-Herbst-Winter.pdf?__blob=publicationFile DJ End of June German CDC made scenario's for vaccination levels in Germany this month...Some parts of (Eastern) Germany does have a vaccination problem... [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; The safety of public spaces needs to be addressed Vested interests are afraid of a new status quo of ventilation/ filtration They will oppose recognition of needed infrastructure or engineering updates Covid isn't going away, and it won't become 'benign' endemic DJ Yes there is a worsening pandemic-but also lots of things people can do ! From vaccines, ventilation, masks to less social contacts in person... A further look at numbers for some countries/regions... Vietnam +30%, Laos +14%, Myanmar +4%, Malaysia now also +4%...what is spreading there ? India cases -3%, Phillippines -16%...South Africa +10%, Brazil +14%, Chile +31% they are moving towards summer...New Zealand as well...still cases +15%...also Delta+ variants ???? China reporting cases -18% (last week 603, this week 494...) Massive testing (also asymptomatic population) and vaccinations (are they going for boosters allready in China ?) may show results ? Coronavirus: China is killing the pets of Covid-19 patients without their consent under draconian new measures. (South China Morning Post) How far do we need to go ? In Glasgow climate talks we did see US-China beginning some form of cooperation...we NEED international cooperation NOT confrontation to get out of this problem ! We need to understand what risks Delta+ variants provide...re-infection risks, non-human spread...on a global level ! Flutrackers ; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/927617-fda-recalls-2-2-million-at-home-coronavirus-tests-due-to-false-positives-class-1-recall-potential-for-serious-adverse-health-consequences-or-death[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/927617-fda-recalls-2-2-million-at-home-coronavirus-tests-due-to-false-positives-class-1-recall-potential-for-serious-adverse-health-consequences-or-death ; WASHINGTON - The FDA announced this week that the recall of more than 2.2 million at-home COVID-19 tests by digital diagnostics firm Ellume is being classified as a class 1 recall, which is the most serious type due to the potential for "serious adverse health consequences or death." DJ Testing has been problematic from day 1. Here in NL public health testing is reaching its capacity limits...Another problem is that fully vaccinated people testing at home positive "sit it out" and may not get second testing with public health... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/927616-babies-among-those-in-covid-19-vaccine-trials-in-wisconsin[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/927616-babies-among-those-in-covid-19-vaccine-trials-in-wisconsin ; MADISON, Wis. —With kids as young as 5 years old getting COVID-19 vaccinations, a small group of Wisconsin preschoolers and even some babies are getting the shots. DJ, young children deserve good protection. It is open for discussion for what age the best protection can be...vaccination, limiting contacts...For young people this pandemic is much worse...for a 20 year old the past two years are 10% of his/her live , for a 8 y/o it is 25% ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/927612-tuberculosis-and-covid-19-co-infection-description-of-the-global-cohort[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/927612-tuberculosis-and-covid-19-co-infection-description-of-the-global-cohort ; Abstract
The final multivariable logistic regression model included age, male gender, and invasive ventilation as independent contributors to mortality. DJ CoVid-coinfections AND diseases that "look like CoViD" can increase spread of non-CoViD diseases (Flu, TB(C) etc. but maybe also MERS..) [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-scientific-studies-including-seasonal-novel-flu/927610-this-injectable-gel-reversed-paralysis-in-mice-humans-could-be-next[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-scientific-studies-including-seasonal-novel-flu/927610-this-injectable-gel-reversed-paralysis-in-mice-humans-could-be-next ; Source: https://news.yahoo.com/injectable-ge...165207056.html DJ, Good news more then welcome !!! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/927605-cidrap-netherlands-orders-partial-lockdown-as-covid-19-rises-in-europe[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/927605-cidrap-netherlands-orders-partial-lockdown-as-covid-19-rises-in-europe ; Against the backdrop of a fresh COVID-19 surge in Europe that has spread from east to west, putting cases at near-record levels, the Netherlands today became the first country to reimpose lockdown measures. DJ I think the "pseudo lockdown" in NL may have no effects...People are fed up with NPI-government communications keep sending a double signal...Vaccinated people do feel save with a QR-code...Delta+ most likely is increasing in the (NL) vaccinated...boosters come to late...In NL under 12 y/o still will not be vaccinated...and yes there are some groups...from the orthodox christians to very noisy but limited anti-vax groups...We will see further restrictions december 3.... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/927603-covid-19-ema-recommends-authorisation-of-two-monoclonal-antibody-medicines-ronapreve-and-regkirona-are-now-authorised-in%C2%A0the-eu[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/927603-covid-19-ema-recommends-authorisation-of-two-monoclonal-antibody-medicines-ronapreve-and-regkirona-are-now-authorised-in%C2%A0the-eu ; Ronapreve and Regkirona are now authorised in the EU. This follows the granting of marketing authorisations for these products by the European Commission on 12 November 2021. DJ Lots of countries are now looking for better treatments, (old) medications to make some difference...Some claim this pandemic could last at least another two years...I am hopefull that better treatments, NPI, better vaccines still "could offer perspectives" second half 2022...https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/927602-stretched-too-thin-with-staff-exhausted-schools-cancel-class-or-return-to-remote-learning[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/927602-stretched-too-thin-with-staff-exhausted-schools-cancel-class-or-return-to-remote-learning ; School districts across the nation are temporarily closing or switching back to remote learning as school administrators struggle with empty classrooms, driverless buses and understaffed cafeterias caused by widespread teacher exhaustion, coronavirus concerns and the Great Resignation. DJ In many countries "schools had to stay open" with limited ventilation, no vaccines for children...so the crisis was only a matter of time ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/927601-md-sick-bald-eagles-found-in-carroll-county-state-wildlife-officials-investigating-cause-as-yet-undetermined[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/927601-md-sick-bald-eagles-found-in-carroll-county-state-wildlife-officials-investigating-cause-as-yet-undetermined ; MANCHESTER, Md. - Five bald eagles were found acting strangely and seemingly sick in northern Maryland, prompting an investigation by state wildlife officials. DJ Deer in US score high on SARS-2...did it jump to eagles ????? (Started a link at latest news...will try to follow the story...It would be a further worsening of this pandemic IF CoViD-19 somehow ended up in (some sort of) birds...Even if birds would not spread the disease before being eaten...birds do go longer distances... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/927600-cidrap-non-white-race-tied-to-higher-risk-for-covid-infection-severity[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/927600-cidrap-non-white-race-tied-to-higher-risk-for-covid-infection-severity ; A US meta-analysis and systematic review of data on 4.3 million patients analyzed in 68 cohort and cross-sectional studies shows that, relative to White people, Black, Hispanic, and Asian populations were at higher risk for COVID-19 infection and admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) but were less likely to die of the disease.
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=streamDJ...So the last posting still did get cut of at the end...There is a limit of words to each posting...Maybe this again then will be part 1 ? -Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table With 438,961 cases for a saterday (global trend +6% US veterans day, technical reporting problems may be a factor) cases relatively high...Deaths 6,282...trend +0,9% Top 5 reported cases ; US (trend +1%), Russia (-3%), UK (+0,7%) all around the 40,000... Germany at #4 with 35,000+ trend +50%...Ukraine at #5 with 23,500+ trend -5% (came from very high number of cases to stll high number of cases...). NL still at #10 with almost 14,000 cases underreporting due to "technical problems" showing up when cases are high...NL trend +42%... In many countries limited (booster) vaccinations are a major reason for high numbers. Second one may be Delta+ being more infectious, evading immunity...Politics/embedded press also like to claim "season" as a reason...but virusses do not read calanders and the weather has not been that much different for lots of countries to be such a major factor...The main reason why we are in yet another crisis is lifting restrictions to soon...bad politics ! Also many countries are very slow in boosters, vaccinating under 12 y/o...getting people to get vaccinated. You can make mandates but "ordering things" may not be the best way of communication ! (I may refuse an order but accept an advice...it aint what you say, its the way that you say it ...) . -Twitter, Flutrackers etc; (Due to limits in room on this site (looks like !) and time just a few headlines; [url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ ; The NL “wins” for having the poorest mitigations in the world. Dutch Elementary public schools: no masks in classrooms worn by students and teachers no distancing no ventilation, CO2 monitoring no regular testing no proper quarantine rules and ; ) Netherlands: Highest cases again in school age children. The Netherlands has some of the poorest mitigations in schools (possibly even comparable to the UK) and aerosol transmission doesn't seem to figure in the guidelines. Deze collectie weergeven DJ A lot of spread in young age groups-in most countries. (Grand)parents, familymembers second in line for infection... [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; But, you can see here that among 358 reinfections they tracked, looking at #Delta only, people reporting symptoms & those with lower median Ct values were actually both worse in reinfection than the initial infection. Among all those 358, initially, 125 had symptoms & 233 didn't. - But, out of 233 without symptoms in the initial infection, 84 reported symptoms upon reinfection (149 stayed asymptomatic both times!). It suggests 36% of those initially asymptomatic became symptomatic the 2nd time. That's bad news. (I did a simple IF(AND query to count them.) - There has been an uptick in news stories about zoo animals getting covid recently. We are now seeing vaccinated breakthroughs cases and deaths too. How many cases have there actually been though? A lot - This is why I dislike UK data. They are so smug about their use of smart complicated statistical models that they are blind to the obvious. And then always try to push some agenda they prefer. A complete opposite is happening with reinfections from what they claimed in June. DJ The picture I am getting (some) Delta (+) variant(s) both increase risk of reinfection and spread in (even fully vaccinated) animals. It should be very alarming...Since bad news is bad for politics even twitter under pressure...(next step could be an overload of (non)info with some relevant info hidden in the overload...). [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/927686-comprehensive-investigations-revealed-consistent-pathophysiological-alterations-after-vaccination-with-covid-19-vaccines[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/927686-comprehensive-investigations-revealed-consistent-pathophysiological-alterations-after-vaccination-with-covid-19-vaccines ; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-021-00329-3?s=09 Liu, J., Wang, J., Xu, J. et al. Comprehensive investigations revealed consistent pathophysiological alterations after vaccination with COVID-19 vaccines. Cell Discov 7, 99 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41421-021-00329-3 Abstract Large-scale COVID-19 vaccinations are currently underway in many countries in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we report, besides generation of neutralizing antibodies, consistent alterations in hemoglobin A1c, serum sodium and potassium levels, coagulation profiles, and renal functions in healthy volunteers after vaccination with an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Similar changes had also been reported in COVID-19 patients, suggesting that vaccination mimicked an infection. Single-cell mRNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) of peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) before and 28 days after the first inoculation also revealed consistent alterations in gene expression of many different immune cell types. Reduction of CD8+ T cells and increase in classic monocyte contents were exemplary. Moreover, scRNA-seq revealed increased NF-κB signaling and reduced type I interferon responses, which were confirmed by biological assays and also had been reported to occur after SARS-CoV-2 infection with aggravating symptoms. Altogether, our study recommends additional caution when vaccinating people with pre-existing clinical conditions, including diabetes, electrolyte imbalances, renal dysfunction, and coagulation disorders. DJ So mRNA vaccines mimicked SARS-2 infection more then may be wanted...putting further questionmarks on vaccination strategy. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/927638-plos-pathog-an-outbreak-of-sars-cov-2-with-high-mortality-in-mink-neovison-vison-on-multiple-utah-farms[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/927638-plos-pathog-an-outbreak-of-sars-cov-2-with-high-mortality-in-mink-neovison-vison-on-multiple-utah-farms ; Abstract Disease indicators were most notably sudden death, anorexia, and increased respiratory effort. Gross pathology examination revealed severe pulmonary congestion and edema. Microscopically there was pulmonary edema with moderate vasculitis, perivasculitis, and fibrinous interstitial pneumonia. Reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) of tissues collected at necropsy demonstrated the presence of SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA in multiple organs including nasal turbinates, lung, tracheobronchial lymph node, epithelial surfaces, and others. Localization of viral RNA by in situ hybridization revealed a more localized infection, particularly of the upper respiratory tract. Whole genome sequencing from multiple mink was consistent with published SARS-CoV-2 genomes with few polymorphisms. The Utah mink SARS-CoV-2 strains fell into Clade GH, which is unique among mink and other animal strains sequenced to date. While sharing the N501T mutation which is common in mink, the Utah strains did not share other spike RBD mutations Y453F and F486L found in nearly all mink from the United States. Mink in the outbreak reported herein had high levels of SARS-CoV-2 in the upper respiratory tract associated with symptomatic respiratory disease and death. - These mutations were identical to those found in the closest GenBank match MW474212:SARS-CoV-2/human/USA/WA-S3043/2020. Synonymous SNPs from this Farm A isolate included C1059T, C3037T, C6336T, G12795A, C14408T, C20930T, A23064C, A23403G, G25563T, C25936T, C28887T, were also identical to those of MW474212 from a human in Washington State. The Utah mink SARS-CoV-2 strain is unique among mink and other animal strains sequenced to date. Identical strains found in Washington state humans may reflect zooanthroponosis, and to date there is no evidence that viruses adapted to mink will impact human SARS-CoV-2 evolution. DJ I do not like any mutations at 501 !!! (Nelly-N501Y may bring less immunity protection). Do these mink sequences look like sequences from US deer ? Did US mink spread CoViD to US deer ? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latest; https://twitter.com/morganstephensa/...279427/photo/1 and ; The bulk of 'long covid' may not be related to sars2 infection at all. Most who claim the condition have no tests to show they were ever infected. DJ There is a push claiming Long covid is a "mental disease" ...most of that will be non-sense ! If you can not find any issues that does NOT mean there are no issues !!! Also from this link ; I don't have access to GISAID , Charite no longer publishes German sequences and WHO files DJ Websites may not be able to deal with the (complex) info...We may be missing more and more important findings ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/927669-organized-crime-knowingly-and-actively-exploited-federal-pandemic-benefits-intelligence-reports[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/927669-organized-crime-knowingly-and-actively-exploited-federal-pandemic-benefits-intelligence-reports ; Source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cer...rime-1.6241211 Organized crime 'knowingly and actively' exploited federal pandemic benefits: intelligence reports FINTRAC not sure total amount of CERB/CEBA funds may have gone to organized crime Catharine Tunney · CBC News · Posted: Nov 12, 2021 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: November 12 The federal government spent billions of dollars on income supports to help Canadians weather the pandemic — but it appears these emergency benefits inadvertently went to criminals as well. According to a recently obtained financial intelligence report, criminals and organized crime appeared to have "knowingly and actively" defrauded the Canada emergency response benefit (CERB) and Canada emergency business account (CEBA) programs. The Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC), the country's financial intelligence wing, observed that during the first few months of the CERB program, criminal organizations filed multiple applications using stolen identities. "They tend to hire groups of individuals to cash the benefit cheques at various locations around town," said the 2020 FINTRAC report, released through an access to information request filed by Ottawa researcher Ken Rubin. "In one instance, the reporting entity indicated that social media was used as the means of recruitment of these people." Launched in March, the CERB originally paid $2,000 a month to Canadians whose income took a hit due to the pandemic. The program paid out more than $74 billion before the government transitioned to paying Canadians through employment insurance... DJ In many countries the basic political idea seems to be-the bigger the problem-the more money needed to solve it...Where the money goes ( may be to complex" but statistics indicate that during this pandemic the 0,1% very rich did even get more rich...the poor did get more poor... end of part 1 |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
part 2 DJ A few links [url]https://nos.nl/artikel/2405550-experts-najaarsgolf-volgend-jaar-waarschijnlijk-alles-loslaten-kan-niet-meer[/url] or https://nos.nl/artikel/2405550-experts-najaarsgolf-volgend-jaar-waarschijnlijk-alles-loslaten-kan-niet-meer (in Dutch-google translate does a good job) and [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html In the NOS-NL article the basic question is; If we could not prevent another wave this autumn...will we be able to prevent one autumn 2022 ? Several views on it; from very optimistic-this is the last wave; "herdimmunity + vaccines", DJ not very realistic. To more realistic "living with the virus-how we do that" ideas... In many countries using a mask, staying home when you are ill is not that unusual. A change in culture may result in lower spread. Biggest problem may be in variants evading immunity...DJ And as far as I did follow stories some Delta+ variants are allready moving that way... Ignoring that part brings me to the second, Arctic News-story; The image below shows that the global temperature over the past century, i.e. from 1920 to 2020, has risen by 1.3°C. The image shows anomalies from 1900-1920. When adjusting data to reflect a pre-industrial base, ocean air (2m) temperatures and higher polar anomalies, temperatures may have crossed 2°C long ago. - One of the largest threats is seafloor methane and despite repeated warning from some of the best experts in the field, the IPCC simply waves away this threat. This and other elements in the bar have been discussed in detail in many earlier posts such as this one and on the extinction page. - Given that humans may go extinct with a 3°C rise, and a 5°C rise will likely end most life on Earth, the COP26 summit in Glasgow could have acted more decidedly. The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan. DJ "politics" has a tendency to ignore facts they do not like... In this pandemic info on N501Y mutations in some Delta+ variants-evading more immunity-causing an increase of reinfections, "immunity-escape" and very likely increased spread in non-human hosts is ending up more and more on "twitter"...Inconvenient truthts... Of course "hiding for facts" has its limits... So a next option may be creating other international crises [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/11/in-ukraine-the-us-is-risking-war.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/11/in-ukraine-the-us-is-risking-war.html bringing the world even closer to war... Political elite wants to stay in power. Even when a lot of people see strategies in this pandemic have a lot in common with "strategies" in other crises; kicking the can down the road...NOT solving any problem. In fact often making matters worse... History is full of scapegoats; minorities are easy to use for such a goal...(Jewish people, people falling out of "group-stupidity" blamed for witchcraft, religious/cultural minorities...Chinese people in Indonesia, Indian people in Africa...). Western politics did go from blame Putin to blame China...no facts needed... So my ideas for 2022; -Most optimistic scenario would be better vaccines, medication and much lower spread could bring us a "new normal" in second half of 2022...Living with the virus meaning living with booster vaccines, masks, staying home with healthissues, lots of preventative testing... -More realistic is proberbly both better-and more-vaccines, medication take more time to make a major difference. But we will be on our way...Maybe we will see a lot of cases in some peaks in 2022 but less severe disease, hospital cases... -A third scenario is duration of this crisis is making people no longer willing to follow rules made up by failing "leaders"...Healthcare collapsing since lots of other jobs have less risks and responsibilities, better hours and pay...less insults and attacks...With also Delta+ variants healthcare demand would be far larger then capacity resulting in high numbers of severe cases/deaths... For the coming months I do expect cases per day will get over 700,000 soon...Delta+ variants are spreading from Europe around the globe... -A worst case scenario may see lots of variants jumping from lots of hosts (both human and non-human). An exponential growth of this pandemic...With vaccines becoming as good as useless...Falling back to "survival bubbles" societies will get close to collapse...lots of social unrest, economies crashing etc... DJ-In climate change there may be some "feedbacks" that could stop or slow down the disaster. From land-ice moving into the Oceans-resulting in still a high level of Arctic Sea Ice-also stopping methane release, slowing temperature rise to volcanic eruptions limithing solar energy warming... In this pandemic maybe things getting much worse in the short term could make most people much more willing to take good advice later on...Learning the hard way... So predicting the future has many limits ! -Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdgnLxRsxBY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdgnLxRsxBY ; BBC fact checked...(info under the video) DJ-I think Dr.J.C. may be a bit optimistic on the US not getting another major wave...Yes US is doing good in both booster vaccines and vaccinations for children under 12-by rules. But still less then 60% of the US population has been vaccinated...and Delta+ may be spread by vaccinated allowed into the US...Also on the UK there are lots of questions on UK statistics... Music Go Like Elijah - Chi Coltrane - 1972 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0Wj2jOpIm0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0Wj2jOpIm0 |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
I very much doubt that a 5* rise would make us extinct, but the problems it would cause would limit our numbers severely. Societal collapse would be an absolute certainty. One of the largest threats is seafloor methane and despite repeated warning from some of the best experts in the field, the IPCC simply waves away this threat. This and other elements in the bar have been discussed in detail in many earlier posts such as this one and on the extinction page. I could not agree more, this is a HUGE RISK! |
|
How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
|
carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
I remember reading about methane 40 years ago ,and the huge problem it would be, releasing into the atmosphere via melting permafrost etc .... Melting permafrost in itself is a huge problem...... 40 years on what's been done NOTHING,JUST BULLSH.T from them moving lips... Cop-out 26 didn't even mention petrol driven cars !!!!!!! Car manufacturers should only be producing 1,000cc engines starting yesterday,some of the vehicles on the road are ridiculous large....I blame small.....????they have to make up for it somehow..... all too little too late..... take care all 😷😉💉 |
|
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
|
carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
As for the moderator thing.... Someone ??made me a moderator.....!!!! That's ok but be warned I will be harsh on antivaxers...... If Austria can lockdown unvaxed peeps I can delete posts .....no "ifs"or "buts".....I care not.... Take care all 😷😉💉 |
|
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
part 1, It would be so nice if this forum could do without (much) moderating ! Maybe a technical question-person could be welcome (I still have this scenario's in "phone-size" but can live with that...). Point is reality is complex...not black and white but countless shades of grey...[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/worldwide-vaccine-failure[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/worldwide-vaccine-failure in my opinion is "not non-sense" in the way some politicians falsely claimed we "could vaccinate ourselves out of this pandemic"...even Dr. J.C. made claims close to that... [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-sudden-cdc-has-stopped-talking-about-herd-immunity[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-sudden-cdc-has-stopped-talking-about-herd-immunity ; What used to be a relatively simple concept has now turned into something "very complicated", according to Dr. Jefferson Jones, a medical officer on the CDC’s COVID-19 Epidemiology Task Force. “Thinking that we’ll be able to achieve some kind of threshold where there’ll be no more transmission of infections may not be possible,” he said to a panel that advises the CDC last week. DJ Some "experts" pushed a crazy idea of "herd immunity" ignoring what we did know of corona virus disease in animals...Herd immunity (I prefer group immunity for people) may work with flu-limited the Spanish Flu...the idea for corona virusses stop mutating was anti-science... The very major problem we are in now is just because there is NO herdimmunity with Corona virusses ! Outbreaks in animals were "controlled" by killing all the animals ! In humans cold-corona showed a high level of reinfections... So "herd immunity strategy" had to fail from the start. Still that did not stop most countries for going for "herd immunity".... I follow German twitter [url]https://www.rnd.de/politik/corona-top-mediziner-draengen-auf-kurswechsel-vierte-welle-kann-alles-bisherige-in-den-schatten-4XJSBSDR25HI7NPQXMMWVH6MRQ.html[/url] or https://www.rnd.de/politik/corona-top-mediziner-draengen-auf-kurswechsel-vierte-welle-kann-alles-bisherige-in-den-schatten-4XJSBSDR25HI7NPQXMMWVH6MRQ.html (urgent letter-translation option) in parts of Germany they now face scenarios like Bergamo-Italy had in the early stages of this pandemic...massive deaths... Can it get controlled ? YES !!! But that would demand political action !!! In practice to get the explosion of cases now under control you should go for a 2-3 week total lockdown !!!! S T O P T H E S P R E A D !!!!!!!!!! Stoppt die Ausbreitung !!!!! (I have been saying this for months...I am not that clever, not at all an expert...why did experts not go for this that much that we would not end up in this disaster ?) Fact of course is lots of experts did warn "till they dropped", some may even have lost their jobs for pushing the science that vaccines are not enough to stop Delta....Politics went on "saving economies"...ignoring science...just like they do in climate collapse... This pandemic shows politics has become something for sociopaths, ego's much to often...Maybe to get democrazy become democracy we should go for ideas...and have people trying to get those ideas to work... ( I am in favor of "free" (tax-paid) healthcare, education, public transport, childcare...basic income/job as a right (not some politician making people without a job doing terrible jobs without proper pay...)...I vote much less for a person then for the idea (s)he claims to be promoting...). This pandemic will become more and more political. In allready very divided counties (US, UK, but maybe also the EU) this comes on top of lots of other issues... since I do not want my text to be cut off...because of length end of part 1... |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
See if this works...[url]https://twitter.com/IsabellWelpe[/url] or https://twitter.com/IsabellWelpe ; In Ireland half of the people who died from #Covid19 were infected in fewer than 400 buildings Ireland has >2,500,000 buildings Risk is about buildings, not behaviour Spread is about clusters, not contacts Control is about eliminating the hot spots (pic: ) DJ I am very happy ! Understanding how CoViD spreads is essential. Clusters-chain reactions..."superspreaders" infecting more then 8 others...Somehow politics keeps running behind reality (at best...). Vaccines may help prevent serious illness, do limit the spread of CoViD but do NOT stop the spread...so even if 100% of a population is (booster) vaccinated in the most optimistic (unrealistic) scenario it would stop 80% of the spread...In older, some other people immunity is not "top", timing matters so maybe between 80 and 90% of the population fully vaccinated can reduce the spread of CoViD by 50% ? Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ; Sunday 358,578 new cases being reported-trend +5%. Deaths 4,653 trend 0%...(NL still has technical reporting issues...US did have Veteransday...will influence the statistics...). For what it is worth top 3 of cases; #1 Russia 38,823 trend -2%, #2 UK 36,517 trend +6% (cases going up again...) and #3 Germany 29,048 +49%... Germany also reporting deaths +42%..last week 800, this week 1,135. Looking at trends Haïti reporting an increase of 316%...proberbly very poor testing...but Haïti may be one of the mixing grounds producing even worse variants...Taiwan +50%, Portugal +44%, Denmark +40%, France +39%, NL +36% (with a fake-lockdown not stopping much of the spread...), Colombia +34%, Poland +27%, Peru +23%, New Zealand +20%, Qarar +16%, Malaysia +15%, Brazil +11%, Spain +9%, South Africa +8%, UK +6%, Laos +5%,... Canada cases -5%, US -7%, India -0,1%, Israel -20%...Boostervaccines (for all) may limit cases...But we need much more testing also for asymptomatic cases, much better contact tracing, much stricter rules, much better communications...China killing pets from people testing positive may go a bit far (China cases -9%)-keeping them in isolation untill they no longer test positive may be a better way... Still we also need to do much more testing in pets, wildlife...because it must be spreading...via sequencing we can monitor what way mutations are going... It should be beyond discussion by now that we are entering the worst wave yet of this pandemic. In relative numbers this pandemic still is much more limited then the Spanish Flu. So far proberbly around 0,25%/ 0,3% of the global population did die in this pandemic. The Spanish Flu killed up between 2 and 5% of the global population...But this pandemic is still getting worse in many ways...healthcare in many places close to collapse... In absolute numbers the lowest estimate for the Spanish Flu is at 20 million people dying from it...highest go 50 million to 80-100 million (on a global population in 1919 of 2 billion). A lowest realistic estimate for Covid would be around 20 million...Lots of countries see deaths per millions above 3,000 making 0,3% (If you put global population at 8 billion then 0,3% would make 24 million...). Comparing a flu with CoViD-19 creates false expectations..flu may see group-immunity, is not "new"...CoViD-19 may not see group immunity-in many ways is new...and therefor more of a risk... Some twitter (since most of the news moved to twitter...) [url] https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; If vulnerable people will be at thanksgiving, don’t assume vaccines prevent transmission and don’t expect an elderly relative is totally protected. Even if boosted, they aren’t completely protected. Which is why keeping the virus out in the first place is essential. DJ Vaccines do a much better job then expected ! Much better the flu-vaccines !!!! But still vaccines on their own can not stop Delta+ variants with a R0 of 8+ !!!! (Politics and embedded press/experts simply refuse to accept science !!!). 2) Remember that the coronavirus spreads “like smoke”—but just invisible and odorless. Please ventilate. #COVIDisAirborne DJ And also vaccinated are at risk ! Even if they do NOT get ill they may spread the virus !!! (Vaccination may limit risk of infection to 50-33%...so vaccination does help in limiting spread !!!). Mittlerweile sind 30% der Coronatoten in Deutschland doppelt Geimpfte. Bei 86% Impfquote der älteren Bevölkerung entspricht das 1 - (0.3/0.7 * 0.14/0.86) = 93% Schutz vor Tod. Seien wir dankbar für die Impfung. Sonst hätten wir min. 5x so viele Tote pro Tag. 1/2 DJ In Germany by now 30% of the corona-deaths are fully vaccinated ! With 86% vaccination in the older population this means 93% protection against death. Without vaccines we would have 5x the number of deaths per day...(DJ Boosters have to come in time...the longer you wait the higher the number of fully vaccinated people are getting ill...But also the more room virus gets for further adapting to immunity...). [url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding presenting lists of people he is following on twitter... DJ; Let me be very clear; embedded journalism is propaganda-not news ! "Infotainment" is NOT news ! Journalist only reporting on how restaurants are effected by limited opening hours-without informing on the why (Delta+) - are doing a terrible job ! Embedded experts-like we see also in climate change, selfcensorship or no funding-may become ant-science...Politics and science often do not mix ! some good info from; [url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 ; The people that promise reinfections will be mild are dumb and wrong Pass it on - Cuba made its own vaccines and built its own factories. Other countries are begging at the feet of "the free market" because of misguided beliefs of market efficiency and supply-and-demand. - Morning - todays BULLSHIT spin from news "Austria is one of the least vaccinated countries in Western Europe" Yeah reasonably true except the UK is also one of the least vaccinated countries in W. Europe as well being only 4% ahead of Austria DJ Vaccination has become part of propaganda...numbers may mean 18+, 12+ or all of the population...Also blaming unvaccinated is pointless when a lot of them can NOT get vaccinated ! Here in NL children under 12 can not get vaccinated...booster vaccines may start end of this month...If you would follow Israeli-rules 180 days after second vaccination would be seen as unvaccinated ! Most in Europe may become "unvaccinated" by that criterium soon...not because they do not want a booster but due to politics keep doing a terrible job...Delta+ "airlines" flying around the globe with a vaccine passport qr-code ! Still totally crazy !!! 300 cases of MIS-C/PIMS in Quebec. So this syndrome, which can be life threatening, occurred in 1 in every 330 positive cases of 0-19 year olds. Why does it take a journalist to bring this to our attention? Why wouldn’t leadership post these numbers and openly discuss this risk? twitter.com/veilletteandre… DJ What kind of journalist are you when you ignore this news ? Do you only copy press releases ? Pretending its gone doesn't actually make it go away. It's like closing your own eyes so the monster won't see you. Hide-and-seek childplay has no room in a major crisis ! Some flutrackers latest posts; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/927713-biorxiv-total-virome-characterizations-of-game-animals-in-china-reveals-a-spectrum-of-emerging-viral-pathogens-preprint[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/927713-biorxiv-total-virome-characterizations-of-game-animals-in-china-reveals-a-spectrum-of-emerging-viral-pathogens-preprint ; Abstract DJ-I think we do need much better monitoring of disease in animals to prevent another pandemic in the short term ! Claimin poor countries have to do such a job themselves is fooling yourself...but rich countries seem to be good in doing so... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/927712-ecdc-changes-to-list-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-variants-of-interest-and-variants-under-monitoring[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/927712-ecdc-changes-to-list-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-variants-of-interest-and-variants-under-monitoring ; ECDC reviews the variants list at least weekly and if changes are indicated, these are detailed here. When not listed, it indicates that the weekly review did not result in any changes. 11 November 2021
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/def...12-11-2021.pdf DJ Delta-in all its forms-should be seen as a variant of high consequence...why "we" are still not doing so ? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/927711-new-covid-variant-found-in-france-reason-for-panic-or-not-quite-yet-b-1-x-or-b-1-640[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/927711-new-covid-variant-found-in-france-reason-for-panic-or-not-quite-yet-b-1-x-or-b-1-640 ; A new COVID variant identified in a handful of European countries is raising concerns among some health professionals because there are changes to the coronavirus spike protein that have never been seen before. DJ-There may be a travellink to DR-Congo but if no new cases show up maybe B.1.640 is allready outcompeted by Delta (+) variants... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/927699-china-tianjin-municiple-prevention-control-some-areas-of-the-country-have-found-positive-covid-19-test-results-for-express-delivery-items-november-14-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/927699-china-tianjin-municiple-prevention-control-some-areas-of-the-country-have-found-positive-covid-19-test-results-for-express-delivery-items-november-14-2021 ; Just after "Double Eleven", a large wave of express packages is already on the way. Recently, some areas of the country have found positive results of the new crown virus nucleic acid test for express delivery items. DJ Virus per mail.... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924564-russia-reports-record-daily-covid-deaths-moscow-locks-down-anyone-unvaccinated-aged-60-or-over-until-february?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924564-russia-reports-record-daily-covid-deaths-moscow-locks-down-anyone-unvaccinated-aged-60-or-over-until-february?view=stream latest; Source: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-covid.../31560693.html DJ What kind of variants (of Delta) may be spreading in Russia ? [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=RUS[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=RUS has limited data; B.1.617.2 = 57%, AY.43 = 28%, other 11%, AY.39 = 5%. (makes 101%...) Comparing that with Israel [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=ISR[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=ISR ; AY.43 = 30%, other 19%, AY.12 = 10%, B.1.617.2 = 10%, AY.39 = 9%, AY.4, AY.5, AY.102, AY.42 all at 4%, AY.44, AY.103 at 2%...Delta sub variants still at 151... In a.o. Germany, Austria discussion on mandatory vaccinations....Since this is a very major crisis I am no longer against mandatory vaccinations...as long as it results in higher level of vaccinations ! If the outcome is more polarization, conflict, we may be better of with voluntary vaccinations ! [url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_B ; When pressure in society increases, when leadership functions as a poor example anger becomes undirected by factors such as populists. This is not a new phenomenon. We see this in health emergencies all the time. Doesn't make it right by no dimension. DJ The problem may not be in the number of people willing to get vaccinated...even under 12 y/o (often unable to get vaccinated still !!!)...but in the lack of restrictions ! -Dr. John Campbell on neuro-disease after vaccination [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lB5oR2gFQEw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lB5oR2gFQEw ; Nikk describes her experiences after vaccination and her struggles to be heard, thank you Nikk. This is the link referred to in the discussion, https://www.c19vaxreactions.com (C19 vax reactions) On a separate note, John would like to talk to Eric Clapton, if anyone knows Mr Clapton please pass on this request, campbellteaching@hotmail.com DJ Vaccination is medical intervention and never with zero risks...Trying to limit risks should allways be on top of the list. If people can not get vaccinated for medical reasons it would be welcome if there was an alternative limiting risks. (Besides isolation, masks etc...given the duration of this crisis lets try to remain as humane as we can !). Music; Whole lot of love - Led Zeppelin [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQmmM_qwG4k[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQmmM_qwG4k ...there are lots of things to love...making live worth living ! |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, -Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ; Global reported cases; 426,102 trend +9% (!!!!), deaths 5,586 trend +0,3%...some remarks; US reporting 70,823 cases, trend +11% may be related to less testing last week due to Veteransday...but that does not explain all of the 11% increase...NL is at #7 for new cases with 19,197 new cases [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/15/netherlands-breaks-records-19200-coronavirus-infections-disclosed-19-test-positive[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/15/netherlands-breaks-records-19200-coronavirus-infections-disclosed-19-test-positive mentions the NL-CDC number of 19,274...19,2% of people tested had a positive outcome. Due to "technical problems NL underreported the last few days...so in part in the 19,000+ there is also "reparation" ... Still looking at trends (with relevant testing & relevant numbers; Taiwan reporting an increase of 82% but still numbers under 100, 28 last week, 51 this week); Ecuador cases +61%, Spain reporting an increase of cases (weekly trend) of +51%, Switzerland +50%, Portugal , Sri Lanka+48%, Germany, Haïti +47%, Czechia, Hungary +44%, Denmark +42%....Some (other) larger countries; France, Italy +40%, NL (the smallest larger country, or the largest small country...) +39%, Colombia +33%, Peru +31%, Poland +26%, Chile +18%, Vietnam, Malaysia, Bolivia +17%, UK +13%, Argentina +12%, USA +11%, South Africa +8%, Canada +6%, Brazil (and Finland) +5%, India, Laos +4%, Bangladesh +2%, Egypt +0,7%...in total 89 countries reporting an increase of cases-and these countries are all over the globe...suggesting new Delta(+) variants are spreading... Since vaccinated can be infected/spreading often without symptoms...testing may miss a lot of cases, again global (air)travel is spreading yet another wave around the globe. After Wuhan/China early 2020, Delta-India april 2021 one would hope for some wisdom but "no" "we have to save the economy".... At the same time healthcare is in fact allready collapsing in many places. Patients from hospitals moved over hundreds of kilometers a.o. in Germany...but even spreading does not create enough new space. Are we moving toward a global disaster ? YES we are ! Is there nothing we can do about it ? NO !!!! We could and should be doing lots of things...but we are not doing it ! Limiting virusses traveling for free...why again starting international travel on this scale ? Testing is simply not good enough ! A (serious) lockdown would slow down spread within a few days...(the NL "lockdown" is a sick joke, everything is open, only openinghours did get limited..) Increae further both testing and sequencing. In NL it is getting very hard to get tested within 36 hours within traveldistance...but you also need to know what variants of Delta are increasing also in who... Booster vaccinations and vaccinating children 5-12 should have started...vaccines still do a very good job. In most countries over 90% of the population is willing to get vaccinated...improving communications may bring that even higher...but be realistic...even 100% vaccinated may limit the burden on healthcare-very welcome and needed-but it does NOT stop this pandemic !!! -twitter; [url]https://twitter.com/mzelst?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor[/url] or https://twitter.com/mzelst?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor in Dutch/NL discussion on who should be able to do what... Many countries allow vaccinated a lot of room...discussion is on earlier infection/recovery and people that tested negative...A compromise in NL could be to test all before certain activities...DJ Given the crisis we are in-LOCKDOWN NOW !!!!! Healthcare is collapsing-deaths statistics will "explode" -LOCKDOWN !!!!!! [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; Finally, a less upbeat note… ++ Delta+E484K ++ E484K is a spike mutation known to evade the immune system Both neutralisation studies found significantly 4-5 fold reduced neutralisation titers for Delta+E484K Which puts it on par with Beta (which also has E484K) - BREAKING—Germany’s all time record cases and overloaded hospitals has led lawmakers to propose requiring negative #COVID19 test or proof of vaccination or recent recovery for use of all public transit. Decision pending this week. DJ Delta+ variants may be even more infectious then Delta (R0 between 5 and 8) itself...China cases -15%, Israel cases -24% may have strategies that limit cases...Cuba cases also down 32%..high vaccination from young age 2 y/o+...proberbly also lots of restrictions...Japan cases -6%, Australia cases -5% indicating Delta+ can be stopped ! Als antwoord op Hope you're right, , that evolution of this virus is slowing. But I'd caution that quasi-step dynamics during sweeps are inherent in evolution of asexual lineages. Doesn't say whether other steps are or aren't coming. We see repeated steps in #LTEE. https://nature.com/articles/ismej201769/figures/1 DJ We can expect "surprises" the only thing surprising may be that we do not know what kind and how many/how long we may see them....Given spread in wildlife, and if SARS-2 did come from bats how long does it take we see SARS-3 ? When you look at the history of this pandemic vaccines were a major positive surprise ! I think it is impossible to say that much on where we may be over a year...Better easy to use treatments, prevantatives may have limited the effects of the virus...Better vaccines may be introduced...We do know lots of scientists, experts are doing a terrible lot of work to find cures, ways to limit CoViD19 in very many ways... We also know the virus still is spreading on a very high level, creating massive mutations, with that more variants...In theory however-Delta+ R0 may be 10 or so...there are limits to what a virus can do ! I am against false optimism, "hopium"...but again without massive vaccinations (40% of global population fully vaccinated ? Most of them in China and India...EU, US at #3 and #4..) the situation most likely would be far worse ! If one measure, vaccination soon after a shot, prevents infection by a factor of 1 in 20X (95%), and another, say good masking, prevents infection by a factor of 1 in 50X (98%) and we do both at once, we get a factor of 1 in 20 * 50 = 1,000X Combine to win. DJ There are lots of things you can do ! ) This is also why letting the virus rip with mass infection also stupid. “Learn to live with the virus” is code for this. It is code for let it rip and citing “endemic” as if it’s a good outcome. It’s NOT! DJ Problem is this is how many governments are reacting, based on "embedded experts" and praised by embedded press ! [url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 ; Things about case growth you might not have seen. 1) The bottom point of the dips is getting higher so the underlying trend is upwards. 2) The last decline was shallower than previous declines. 3) This upturn is steeper than usual. 4) The last peak matched the Euros Peak. DJ We did see the newest wave starting while we were hardly out of the previous wave... From Germany [url]https://twitter.com/SimonReiss3[/url] or https://twitter.com/SimonReiss3 ; 3,1% der KInder 5-14 innerhalb 7d PCR positiv getestet. DJ Not vaccinating children and still expecting them to go to school is criminal ! (3,1% of children age 5-14 testing positive in PCR tests last 7 days...) 600 days ago (20 months) I developed my first Covid-19 symptoms. I’m still no where near recovered and still off sick (unpaid). Will I ever recover completely? Adapting to a new reality is hard. Thankful for the support of the #LongCovid community and others. #LongCovidWork And in dealing with long-CoViD there is the-criminal-tendency in a few "doctors"; if we can not find anything (often with very limited testing) it has to be mental.....This level of criminal stupidity in experts (!!!!) has also been seen in medical experienced persons with ME-CFS ....They were told to do more exercise...the dark ages are still not completely gone... [url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Dutch-a.o. on Delta variants in NL, also on high level of spread in young children...but then no steps at all to stop that spread... Blaming unvaccinated in part is blaming children then can not get vaccine-protection and still are supposed to go to school ! -Flutrackers latests, a.o. (also in other media) UK may redefine "fully vaccinated" to also include booster-vaccination. Israel allready did do so... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/927796-high-anti-sars-cov-2-antibody-seroconversion-rates-before-the-second-wave-in-manaus-brazil-and-the-protective-effect-of-social-behaviour-measures-results-from-the-prospective-detectcov-19-cohort[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/927796-high-anti-sars-cov-2-antibody-seroconversion-rates-before-the-second-wave-in-manaus-brazil-and-the-protective-effect-of-social-behaviour-measures-results-from-the-prospective-detectcov-19-cohort ; Summary - Interpretation An intense infection transmission period preceded the second wave of COVID-19 in Manaus. Several modi able behaviours increased the risk of seroconversion, including non-compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions measures such as not wearing a mask during contact, relaxation of protective measures, and non- remote working. Increased testing in high-transmission areas is needed to provide timely information about ongoing transmission and aid appropriate implementation of transmission mitigation measures. DJ, the idea of infection=protection did not survive 9 months... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/927789-as-studies-show-sars-cov-2-in-deer-wisconsin-plans-to-start-testing-by-winter[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/927789-as-studies-show-sars-cov-2-in-deer-wisconsin-plans-to-start-testing-by-winter ; To date there is no proof the virus sickens deer or can be transmitted from deer to humans. - Officials with the USDA's Animal and Plant Inspection Service (APHIS) are leading work to test more deer for the disease in more states, including Wisconsin.
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Again a part of what I did write was being cut of...it would be welcome if there was some kind of warning...maximum length of a posting.... DJ, A short mention of refugees as healthrisks. Refugees-most of us may have a history of being a refugee in family history if you go down a few hundred years...do try to move from a bad place to a better place. By starting wars, economic total unbalance WE create reasons why people become refugees... Often they may not be in the best of health before they start their journey...countries like Belarus, Turkey then using them as "weapons" also does not help. Both the EU and US do break international laws by sending refugees back...even in the middle of the sea...knowing they may not survive... Unacceptable... -Pandemic numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table global reported cases allmost 500,000...NL made it to #6 in new cases with 20,168 new cases in this list (other number NL-CDC is higher even...but maybe timing matters ?). In NL we are running out of testing capacity...they hope to increase testing to 120,000 tests per day...now 100,000...Denmark is doing 450,000 tests per day...Here in NL you also can "test for entry" but in a bizarre policy that capacity can not be used for basic testing... Global cases +7%, deaths +0,9%....82 countries reporting increase of cases...Cases going up in Europe (+13%), North America (+10%) and South America (+2%)...main reason may be Delta+ variants getting more infectious... Massmedia/politics blame the unvaccinated while in many countries children under 12 still can not get vaccinated, booster vaccines (often only for limited groups) still have to start...Also "winter on its way" may be real calanderwise but in many countries a major reason... International travel "freedom" also doing its part..."Delta+ airlines"...stupidity ! - I like to stay optimistic in this phase of the worsening pandemic because there is so much we can do...increase vaccinations to younger age groups, another suggestion was offering non-mRNA vaccines to those that do not trust mRNA vaccines...boostervaccines help...of course we should be in a serious lockdown with these kind of Delta+ variants...and there is the problem... Political inactivity, reacting to little to late, is bringing us further into this crisis...History learns "we" as humans allways find a way out...But there are limits to that. Climate change, global war, this pandemic are such big risks we may NOT survive... -Twitter etc. [url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu ; (UK ? Virologist) ; Some more B.1.640 sequences from France (Paris region) - collected end of October. Samples appear most related to US/Netherlands sequences so possibly a separate import into France? - Interesting observation - there is a small, real-looking outgroup of B.1.640-like sequences that show some divergence from the main group (both assocaited with Paris region currently) - DJ Delta-with its over 150 subvariants-will most likely NOT be the last variant...We may be missing very major info on other variants (like B.1.640) due to lack of sequencing/screening...to be able to outcompete Delta+ variants with a R0 of-for some-8+ those new variants must be "stronger"...in a sense... [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; Currently Washington State is seeing almost 30% of cases as breakthrough cases (https://doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/data-tables/420-339-VaccineBreakthroughReport.pdf…). 2/6 - Fifth, despite Pfizer's warning, authorities will do the opposite and relax mitigating measures too fast, enabling vaccinated but infected asymptomatic people to freely spread the virus while there is still just a minuscule proportion of the global population vaccinated. - We learned a lot from Pfizer's FDA briefing document and AstraZeneca's Lancet article. First, they both work in creating antibodies, preventing deaths, and reducing symptoms: mRNA better with less severe side effects, and adenovirus vector worse with more severe side effects. - Second, we also learned from AstraZeneca's study that they have almost no effect in preventing asymptomatic infection because there were 22 cases in the standard-dose vaccine group vs. 23 in the placebo group. Meaning the asymptomatic vaccinated can still spread the virus. DJ Yes vaccines do a great job-but not a perfect one ! Policies had to fill the gap between "good and perfect" but failed to do so... "#Delta breakthroughs exhibited broad viral load... on average 38% LOWER than matched unvaccinated patients... 49-50% of all breakthroughs & 56-60% of #Delta breakthroughs exhibited VL above the transmissibility threshold (4 Log copies/ml) irrespective of time post vaccination." - "The story that this research tells us is dramatic and terrifying. We are not winning the war against Covid. We are barely holding Covid at bay. We’re like a city besieged by an enemy, which is barely, just barely, holding the gates closed." [url]https://eand.co/if-you-think-covid-is-over-think-again-8863059ac6f?gi=6d7357f9805b[/url] or https://eand.co/if-you-think-covid-is-over-think-again-8863059ac6f?gi=6d7357f9805b DJ We are in the worst health crisis in recent history...most likely worse then the Spanish Flu of 1918-19...."wishfull thinking" and false hope are making matters worse ! Time to get realistic !!!! End of part 1 |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
part 2-sort of "news dump" we are in a very serious crisis !!! Medical historians are often excluded from pandemic-crisis management while they may offer a "helicopterview" on the developing crisis that specialists (virologists, immunologists, epidemiologists etc. ) may miss... Also historians may have another entry into politics, offering advice how to translate findings into effective rules... Ignoring problems, kicking the can down the road, often make matters worse...Time may offer solutions...vaccines may buy us time...But you have to have better plans then "reopening when cases are low-closing when cases go up".... Vaccines may have stopped this pandemic in 2020...research done in 2021 may solve 2021 problems...but may be less effective in 2022...For that matter it is still a race between a problem and solutions... [url]https://eand.co/if-you-think-covid-is-over-think-again-8863059ac6f[/url] or https://eand.co/if-you-think-covid-is-over-think-again-8863059ac6f ; We’re now two years into a global pandemic. And Europe’s going into lockdown again. Meanwhile in America and Britain, cases have never really fallen — just plateaued at a consistently high level. Is it going to be another brutal, bleak Covid winter? - Covid vaccines work — amazingly well. But — you knew this was coming — there’s a catch. In fact not just one, but three. The next thing the data reveals is a super dramatic decline in vaccine efficacy over the following six months. How great is the efficacy boost of boosters? The data now begins to show us something a little bit alarming. Boosters didn’t have nearly the same effect that the initial round of vaccine doses did. Remember the initial round of vaccines reduced viral rounds by tenfold. But the booster only does so by fivefold. What does that mean, in practical terms? That boosters seem to have about half the efficacy of vaccines. That finding should be like a bomb going off in your mind. It means that the more boosters you take, the less and less efficacy they’re going to deliver. Until, finally, even boosters show no statistical difference relative to the unvaccinated. Because, of course, we will need new vaccines against a now constantly mutating virus, not just boosters of old vaccines. You take you vaccine, and yes, you’re protected. Over the next few months, though, the efficacy of that vaccine falls. Why? Because the virus is constantly mutating and changing, subtly, genetically drifting towards a whole new variant. So you get your booster, which is essentially another dose of the vaccine. The booster fights off the virus — but not as well. You don’t have as much protection as you did the first time around. And over the next six months — every six months — that story’s repeated. I said this chart would let us peer into the future, and it does. It shows us something very, very troubling. The efficacy of boosters appears to half every six months. Right about now, we’re still in a place where the first round of boosters we’re all taking still have half as much efficacy as the initial round of vaccines — that’s a good place. But the next halving of efficacy brings boosters down to a 2.5X reduction in viral loads compared to the unvaccinated. The next one after that, a 1.25x reduction. The next one after that? Statistically insignificant. Suddenly, you should feel the sting in the tail of the story. That is a year and a half away. We are just a year and a half away from even vaccine boosters having no effect anymore. Bang. If that happens it’s game over. Covid rampages through the world, just like it did the first time around, all over again. Alarmed? Worried? Scared? You damned well should be. This is an incredibly serious situation, and hopefully you can see why. What does it all really mean? Well, not so long ago the head of the WHO warned that we’re now in a war against variants and vaccines — a long, hard one — and we’re losing it. The story that this research tells us is dramatic and terrifying. We are not winning the war against Covid. We are barely holding Covid at bay. We’re like a city besieged by an enemy, which is barely, just barely, holding the gates closed. And it’s not at all clear how long we can keep that fight up. We are losing the war against Covid, my friends. DJ Now there may be other ways to fight CoVid then just vaccines...If we have better treatments available after testing and limiting/stopping disease that is also great ! NASAL VACCINE—using a weakened influenza vector, a nasal vaccine against #SARSCoV2 was successful in hamsters . Moreover, lung damage to hamsters could still be reduced even when the hamster was vaccinated 24 hour after coronavirus challenge! #COVID19 https://biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.13.468472v1 DJ I am hopefull we may find better cures and vaccines in time...but since they are not here yet STOP THE SPREAD !!!! Time for international lockdowns, international cooperation !!! And still we are not doing that ! It may not be the virus that will kill us nut the inaction on stopping it ! end of part 2 |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
part 3 (since I do this writing not to see it not showing up because it is getting to long...) [url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 ; AY.43 looks like it could be REALLY bad news guys. And I don't think its the usual S: Gene mutation issue... DJ Just a look at [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected Latest info 5% of global cases are AY.43 detected in 124 countries (and the countries that did not detect it may not have the means to do so...so it is global...) but that is the total for 60 days (or so)...latest numbers indicate AY.43 may allready be 30%+ of newest cases...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected AY.4.2 may be declining....never came over 12% of cases...now back to 6%... Since there is an overflow of info I give up on trying to get a total picture...things are moving fast ! And not in a good direction !!! International cooperation is needed; [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/russias-biggest-move-yet-take-control-european-gas-market[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/russias-biggest-move-yet-take-control-european-gas-market [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-xis-new-communist-manifesto[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-xis-new-communist-manifesto [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/military/turn-board-over-sukhoi-su-75-checkmate-debuts-dubai-airshow[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/military/turn-board-over-sukhoi-su-75-checkmate-debuts-dubai-airshow and [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/11/us-follows-up-on-positive-summit-talks-by-boycotting-chinas-olympics.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/11/us-follows-up-on-positive-summit-talks-by-boycotting-chinas-olympics.html from the comments; China noticed the US strategy of outspending the USSR in the cold war arms race succeeded in sending the USSR broke. The USSR simply couldn't compete financially. The eastern European vassal states cost more than they could contribute to the USSR and eventually broke away. China has also noticed the grotesque political/financial, tail wags the dog, relationship between the Bandit State and the US has its own internal contradictions for the wellbeing of US domestic polity. This is unsustainable in the long run. Eventually the empires vassal states, one by one, will similarly see little cost/ benefit by continuing the one sided US relationship. The US is unlikely to reform itself. China knows it can wait, time is on its side. DJ Russia-Iran-China are "taking over". This pandemic may be speeding up that proces... [url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ NL may see 30.000 cases in a day later this week...DJ-Exponential growth...but testing may limit the reported number of cases...In NL between 300.000 and 500.000 people at this moment spreading the virus ? Another crazy news-fact people trying to catch CoViD-and with that a QR-code-so they do not need the vaccine...totally hopeless madness...But NL may be keeping schools open to create "natural immunity" in children...level of stupidity is beyond what I can understand... “Health-care workers aren't quitting because they can’t handle their jobs. They’re quitting because they can’t handle being unable to do their jobs.” DJ Test-Trace-Isolate was the strategy...In NL testing is a problem, forget about tracing...if people can not test they will not isolate.... Also checking German twitter...in general shock on how politics keep failing...Restrictions and discussion on "testing for entry" while children are not vaccinated, tests may miss a lot of cases. Infection may give 20% of cases NO protection... Things look bad ! Stay safe and sane...no music, not in the mood any longer ! End of part 3 |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ-part 1 Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table worldwide 595,653 new cases did get reported. However many European countries are running out of testing capacity....Limited testing was a problem before but may be more widespread now-becoming an even bigger problem. Still lots of (European) countries see record number of cases...On April 29 we did see 903,999 cases being reported-linked to Delta-India cases... Yesterday-november 17-also 8,399 deaths were (under)reported...highest numbers of deaths was on january 20; 17,577 linked to Alpha-UK cases...Since the present crisis may be only starting both records may get broken soon... Let me also include good news; In the US 10% of 5-12 y/o children did get vaccinated, booster vaccinations are also on their way in the US...but in general still US vaccination levels are below levels in most of Western Europe...so one can question if it can limit the spread of Delta+. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table ; global cases +7%, deaths -2%. Europe cases +13%, deaths +2%, North America cases +11%, deaths -17%, South America cases -2%, deaths +4%, Asia cases -8%, deaths +1%, Africa cases -23%, deaths -13%, Oceania cases -8%, deaths -29%... DJ-A lack of restrictions and limited vaccinations did bring us in the worst case scenario allready in Europe. It did provide room for all kind of new Delta+ variants... Healthcare is collapsing in many places. Dead bodies in hospital hallways. Ambulance not able to pick up patients because hospitals out of capacity. Lots of HCW-ers themselves testing positive/ill. DJ-This should be a warning for other regions ! Go for LOCKDOWNS NOW !!!!!! Acting NOW may save many lives ! In most of Europe the pandemic is out of control-with politics no longer connected to reality. A look at [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected has the AY.43 Delta(+) variant going exponential. Most likely this variant may be evading a lot of immunity. Booster vaccinations in most of Europe are slow...leaving a lot of people vulnerable. Also children under 12 most of the time still did not get vaccinated. A lot of cases (around 20%+) linked to schoolage children...resulting in also lots of cases in (grand)parents, teachers etc... How long a peak in cases can last is a bit open. European cases are still exploding....with winter on its way we may be in very high numbers for months.... Another problem is variant/vaccine selection does not stop. With this kind of high numbers-and still enough mixing chances-this virus will get worse ! In history pandemics may have ended civilizations...The Plague in 14th century Europe did leave some regions depopulated...There are lots of estimates but maybe 1/3 to 1/2 of European population may have died. Europeans moving into the America's may have brought disease killing 80/90% of the native population (some even claim 95%)... For that matter the Spanish Flu "only" killing 2 to 5% of the global population was "small".... Underestimating risks is increasing risks. Action NOW can make a lot of difference still ! NO social contacts is NO spread....Given how bad the situation is in my opinion you should even go for a TOTAL LOCKDOWN for several days in some countries...Meaning you can NOT go out for 4-7 days AT ALL ! If there is clean drinkable water people may have to do what they have in storage...ALL SHOPS closed...(and walking the dog not further then 10 steps from your frontdoor...) In my opinion this crisis is that bad such very draconian steps may be needed...but for now impossible since communications on this crisis did fail completely... So we have to live with it, or die from it... End of part 1 |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ-part 2 twitter; [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; 3 months post [two-dose] vaccination more than half of the vaccinated will lose neutralizing potential against #deltavariant #COVID19 Finger stick blood test to assess post vaccination SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibody response against variants https://medrxiv.org/content/10.110 - P681H mutation helps SARS-CoV-2 VOCs replicate faster and resist innate immunity https://news-medical.net/news/20211117/P681H-mutation-helps-SARS-CoV-2-VOCs-replicate-faster-and-resist-innate-immunity.aspx… #Coronavirus #Disease #COVID #Immunity #Mutation #SARSCoV2 @biorxivpreprint@KingsCollegeLon@UofGlasgow @GSTTnhs@UKRI_News1/2021.11.11.21266241v1 DJ The increasing AY.43 Delta(+) variant has P681R mutation (so not P681H) OK, an attempt to explain virus evolution, especially SARS2, and how our present situation influences this process. TLDR...it's fair to say that current UK scenario is almost certainly an "enabler" for SARS2, and it could encourage the refinement of, or next step from Delta... - the mix of high prevalence, partial immunity and a hodge podge of restrictions really does represent a massive churn, within which the chances of the virus producing a winning ticket really do increase by more than certainly I am comfortable with. Notwithstanding the harm that is DJ Instead of stopping the virus many countries in fact turned into breeding grounds.... 2) I believe the winter wave under #DeltaVariant or even #DeltaPlus could be even higher caseload than last winter. Hopefully deaths won’t exceed last winter but it could still be 50-66% as bad. Why? Because Delta is 2x more contagious & also more severe than last winter’s Alpha. DJ Healthcare capacity may be much smaller and decreasing fast because HCW-ers are exhausted, infected, burned-out...depressed...So most likely lack of care-capacity will result in more deaths...AY.43 variant looks like very bad news... [url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 ; Just to add some meat to the bones on what Tom mentioned AY.43 def seems to still be in the air. USHER definition (pretty much) only includes the N gene mutation N:Q9L In the Pango/GISAID definition it's only 50% Q9L Just follow @jcbarret and @theosanderson@CorneliusRoemer - Since the vast majority of N:Q9L is only in AY.43 you are probably best tracking this mutation alone to get an idea of growth. Just as Tom tracked Y145H to roughly get an idea of AY4.2 & AY4.21 For now anyway The split is Q9L =56 to 44 DJ Do I get this right ? AY.43 is now allready 56% of cases based on Q9L mutation ? Exponential - horror ! [url]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10157067/Now-theres-shoot-Delta-variant.html[/url] or https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10157067/Now-theres-shoot-Delta-variant.html ;DJ "no need for concern" it is "only exploding"..... From Germany [url]https://twitter.com/SimonReiss3[/url] or https://twitter.com/SimonReiss3 ; Wieler: Sie sehen, die Prognosen sind super düster. Sie sind richtig düster..Wir müssen nichts neues erfinden. Alle Konzepte sind vorhanden. Wir laufen momentan in eine ernste Notlage. Wir werden wirklich ein sehr schlimmes Weihnachtsfest haben, wenn wir jetzt nicht gegensteuern. (translation; you see, prognosis is super dark. They are realy dark...We do not have to find something new...All concepts are there..We are going into a serious emergency. We will have a very bad Christmas when we do not react now... DJ The 52.000 new cases reported in Germany proberbly are only 1/2 or 1/3 of the real number...CFR=0,8% meaning out of the 52.000 new cases 400 (DJ minimum) will die within a month...per day... DJ If you include hospitals running out of staff, maybe even running out of oxygen the picture gets even more grimm...Germany cases +38%, deaths +34% (last week 976, this week 1,309...if you have to go for 400+ per day it soon could be between 2.500-3.000 deaths per week..). NL cases +48%, deaths "still only" +18%...will soon get much worse with many hospitals allready in crisis... Limited news in Flutrackers...lots of info moved to twitter...Bird Flu spreads each autumn/spring...record cases of CoViD also not real news... Music; I did watch people reacting to Hocus Pocus by Focus live in 1973...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9JJ165RTZ8&t=4s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9JJ165RTZ8&t=4s ...lots of reactions..."Alien music" .....love the music, love the reactions to it... End of part 2 |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
DJ, In my non-expert assessment of where this pandemic is now all alarms are ringing ! Some numbers; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ; New reported cases for november 18; 605.324 trend +7%, deaths 8,018 trend -0,8... Europe cases 378.847 trend +13%.....deaths 4.132 trend +3%....most of healthcare allready at breakingpoint and we are just in the middle of november ! Vaccination level is high in several countries....but still increase is extreme... Portugal cases +51%, Denmark +57%, NL +46%, Germany +35%, UK +15%....not vaccinating children, not in time with boosters are just one factor.... [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected november 16 AY.43 detected in 232.162 samples....8% India, global 5%, UK 2%, US 1% of all samples...but at latest date over 30% of global cases allready were AY.43... November 19 215.014 AY.43 detections...India 2%, world 4%, UK 2%, US 1% ?????? Did they split up AY.43 into several subvariants ? Do I get the statistics wrong ? [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=DEU[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=DEU may answer that...I hope ! AY.43 =29% of German cases, other is 28% looks like increasing....B.1.617.2 (old Delta) = 15%, AY.4=9%, AY.102=6%, AY.46.6=5%, AY.121 and AY.98.1 both 3% and AY.42 = 2%....(9 "types") Basic point I want to make that while there is a lot of discussion on how to increase vaccinations, what the different groups can or can not do more infectious variants of Delta may be exploding.... A look at [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD does not show that major differences with Germany (we do not have AY.102 in the numbers...12 sub variants even a bigger genetic mess.... Looking at several twitter accounts...[url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu ; Flagging small observation (promoted by convo with ). The rapidly growing AY.4.2.1 sublineage (ID'd by ) has a further spike mutation (V36F) directly adjacent to A222V. Could this be further fine tuning of AY.4.2's superior transmissibility? - Never seen V36X coming up in any antigenic literature - however I had a quick map to structure and very interestingly V36 (red) lies right next to A222 (orange) (A222V is also found in AY.4.2) in the bottom of the Spike NTD could be working together/compensating for one another?? - First sequence of B.1.640 found in Quebec, Canada (spotted by ). The Canadian seq appears most closely related to the Dutch, USA and Parisian sequences so pretty unclear where thats come from... Globally now at ~40 sequences total of B.1.640 DJ-Problem is AY.4.2.1 is NOT a major variant in Germany or NL.... My impression is cases are exploding...totally out of control and maybe we simply have not yet a real idea of what variants/mutations are pushing that exponential growth... Blaming unvaccinated is not realistic...it does not explain the growthrate also in highly vaccinated countries...We may get a touch of winter next week...maybe a combination of factors could explain some growth (to many not vaccinated yet, waning immunity, lack of restrictions)...but my idea is the main motor may be in the variants...still being ignored by many... There are also some claims vaccination could have caused variant selection...but (as far as I can see) cases in vaccinated are going up in groups that should have had a chance to get a booster vaccine...Does a large number of children (not vaccinated) result in some new variants increasing ???? THIS IS A MAJOR CRISIS !!!! THIS EXPONENTIAL GROWTH IS GOING GLOBAL !!!!! Eric Ding ; Europe is now the epicenter of COVID in the world. What a failure of leadership. DJ I hope it is "only bad politics" so "good politics" could make a change...Israel cases still -12% may indicate more (booster) vaccines do matter.... Germany now reporting over 60.000 cases per day, NL over 20.000 per day...my impression-again-is that there is much more then limited vaccine protection and lack of restrictions...I hope to find more info on twitter/flutracker.... NL deaths last week 5x higher then Dutch CDC numbers on CoViD indicated...in all age groups...Healthcare in many countries is close to collapse...lack of staff a major factor. Testing is at capacity limits...there are some indications real number of new cases may be 2x, 3x the official number in NL, Germany....[url]https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2021/46/in-week-45-overleden-bijna-850-mensen-meer-dan-verwacht[/url] or https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2021/46/in-week-45-overleden-bijna-850-mensen-meer-dan-verwacht (In Dutch-google translate !) DJ The present crisis reminds me of being in a car driving high speed and someone in the back of the car has a steering wheel...not connected to the car...a nightmare... Music - Take Good Care Of Yourselve - The Three Degrees [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDOXxbhyFhc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDOXxbhyFhc Live in Japan 1975.... |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, My goal in this scenario's as a non-expert is trying to make some sense on what is happening. This pandemic is getting worse fast...global cases up +9% from an allready high level.... I did take a look at a talk of Geert van den Bossche. One could see his view as "anti-vax", but his point is much more nuanced...[url]https://thehighwire.com/videos/vaccine-expert-warns-of-covid-vaccination-catastrophe/[/url] or https://thehighwire.com/videos/vaccine-expert-warns-of-covid-vaccination-catastrophe/ If you go for mass-vaccination when you are allready in a pandemic and the vaccine "only" limits severe disease-hardly limits spread-you are going for vaccine selection in variants.....Virusses mutate...SARS-2 is very widespread so it will see even more mutations as a "species"... The first variants in Brazil, South Africa (you could proberbly also include Peru, Philippines, Nigeria) had to do with virus-spread in a highly populated (poor) area...The virus did run wild-giving some mutations that turned out to be better in spreading then the 2019 variant... If you then introduce widescale mass vaccination you may find out the vaccines offer good protection against the "older" variants...so they stop spreading...only to give way to more agressive variants... If I get Geert van den Bossche correctly it may have been better to only vaccinate the groups most at risk...let the virus do its damage in the other groups...and yes that would be bad-but the alternative would be even worse. Resistent variants no longer stopped by any immunity at all.... So "damned if you do not vaccinate but even in a bigger problem if you go for mass vaccination"....The way I see it vaccines at best did buy us time.... Some experts claim you have to go for mass vaccination-to buy that time...we will create newer vaccines to deal with the newer variants that mass-vaccination selection pressure will create...So where are the better vaccines...because it looks like the "better/worse variants may be allready here"..... DJ-What I am missing in all of the strategies and discussions is a long term view...Wehave to go back to an old normal that did give us this pandemic...no room for questions...blame China, blame the unvaccinated..save the economy....show must go on... We did know another pandemic would be just a matter of time...that was the basis for this forum ! But somehow the idea was that a sort of very basic monitoring would be enough...healthcare would be able to do miracles even with decreased budgets...I think healthcare did do miracles but duration is taking its toll.... We may now face CoViD-19 variants that are able to evade immunity on a large-global-scale....One of the aspects may be a higher viral load giving more severe disease... So-yes you can increase vaccinations, booster vaccinations...they do still limit severe disease...but still you are only buying time again. Several countries in Europe-some with allready a high level of vaccinations-are discussing another lockdown. But that is-again-short term thinking...is there any long term strategy that may work ? With healthcare on its knees how are other diseases developing ? CoViD in animals seem to be increasing....This means CoViD-19 may include non-human hosts...billions of them-soon....Vaccines have their limits.... A major problem for most of us is understanding risks....we may see a high wave but miss the tsunami untill it is to late...In the video they compare it to kill killer whales and the weapon used is not working against the sharks that then show up.... Again-worst pandemics, disease outbreaks, do kill a high number of people...The Spanish Flu was relatively mild.... Time to wake up ! end of part 1 |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
part 2...A look at numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; global reported cases friday november 19 599,002, deaths 7,771 trends cases +9%, deaths 0%... For Europe cases 357,995 trend +15%, deaths 4,066 trend +4%...North America trend for cases +13%, deaths -5%, Asia has a mixed picture, so does South America and Africa (South Africa cases +47% !!!). The newest wave-with more infectious Delta+ variants is spreading around the globe but for now most of it is in Europe...but US cases also +15%, Canada, Mexico still in decrease of cases... In Europe France cases +83%, Finland +66%, Spain +56%, Portugal +50%, NL +43%, Denmark +35%, Germany/Austria +33%, Italy +26%, UK +14%... [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected The AY.4.2 something of 12% in latest numbers worldwide ? [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.43&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected AY.43 around 13% ? [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=DEU[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=DEU in Germany AY.43 29%, "other" 28%, B.1.617.2/old Delta 15%.... Maybe the problem is not (only) in the variants...Lack of restrictions, ignoring vaccines do not stop spread will be another factor....But I do not know if there are any good international statistics on cases in (fully) vaccinated...Here in NL the number of fully vaccinated ending up in hospital is increasing but mostly linked to a lack of boostervaccines...just started here... -Twitter may have some info ? [url]https://sargasso.nl/de-komende-corona-crash/[/url] or https://sargasso.nl/de-komende-corona-crash/ An article in Dutch...(google translate) but the basic problem may be worldwide allmost...no long term strategy ! Zero-CoViD at least is a long term idea...but a lot of rich countries (from Russia, EU, US) go for saving the economy...resulting in a Corona-Crash (CC).... And such a Corona Crash may be much worse then we have seen so far...why are governments, politics, not doing their jobs ? Do we have to go for 100,000 's of deaths per day ? When will they wake up ! We have to get cases down now ! Not talks on can unvaccinated go to a barbershop...insanity... The house is on fire and the talk is on what shall we safe-while we are still in the burning house ! Crazy !!! [url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_B ; So what now? Lockdowns may have to come - but they mark a failure. Mandatory vaccinations may have to come - but they mark a failure. Call it a lack of empathy, a lack of solidarity, a lack of intelligence. But we have failed to act as a society in our own best interest. DJ....And maybe the worst news is we are now in a worse shape then early 2020 in many ways...healthcare is allready in crisis, public support for ANY policy may be gone....While we now have more agressive variants...20 months into this pandemic. Have you ever wondered what happened to all those 'vaccine escape' mutations like Beta we heard about, and why epidemiologists were more worried about transmissibility than immune evasion? Read this. New from us in @CellCellPress https://cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)01374-X DJ [url]https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)01374-X[/url] or https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)01374-X ; SummarySARS-CoV-2 variants of concern exhibit varying degrees of transmissibility and, in some cases, escape from acquired immunity. Much effort has been devoted to measuring these phenotypes, but understanding their impact on the course of the pandemic – especially that of immune escape – has remained a challenge. Here, we use a mathematical model to simulate the dynamics of wildtype and variant strains of SARS-CoV-2 in the context of vaccine rollout and nonpharmaceutical interventions. We show that variants with enhanced transmissibility frequently increase epidemic severity, whereas those with partial immune escape either fail to spread widely, or primarily cause reinfections and breakthrough infections. However, when these phenotypes are combined, a variant can continue spreading even as immunity builds up in the population, limiting the impact of vaccination and exacerbating the epidemic. These findings help explain the trajectories of past and present SARS-CoV-2 variants and may inform variant assessment and response in the future. Highlights
We may be in this phase right now...vaccines less effective with increased spread... We have the knowledge. We have the vaccines. We have the money. Germany should not be in the situation it is in two years into this pandemic. What we lack is evidence-based politics. What we lack is social medicine. What we lack is empathy. DJ history keeps repeating itself over and over again if we keep failing to learn the lessons ! Variants are getting worse, support, care collapsed... [url]https://immunenetwork.org/DOIx.php?id=10.4110/in.2021.21.e32[/url] or https://immunenetwork.org/DOIx.php?id=10.4110/in.2021.21.e32 may help understanding the effect of mutations.... Flutrackers; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/928262-open-forum-infect-dis-the-longest-persistence-of-viable-sars-cov-2-with-recurrence-of-viremia-and-relapsing-symptomatic-covid-19-in-an-immunocompromised-patient-a-case-study[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/928262-open-forum-infect-dis-the-longest-persistence-of-viable-sars-cov-2-with-recurrence-of-viremia-and-relapsing-symptomatic-covid-19-in-an-immunocompromised-patient-a-case-study ; Abstract [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/928261-open-forum-infect-dis-meta-analysis-of-randomized-trials-of-ivermectin-to-treat-sars-cov-2-infection[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/928261-open-forum-infect-dis-meta-analysis-of-randomized-trials-of-ivermectin-to-treat-sars-cov-2-infection ; Abstract DJ If Ivermectin is that effective in some countries-a.o. India why are studies not showing such results ? I would love to believe Ivermectin making a difference at least somewhere somehow... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/928259-open-forum-infect-dis-acceptability-usability-and-performance-of-lateral-flow-immunoassay-tests-for-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-antibodies-react-2-study-of-self-testing-in-nonhealthcare-key-workers[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/928259-open-forum-infect-dis-acceptability-usability-and-performance-of-lateral-flow-immunoassay-tests-for-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-antibodies-react-2-study-of-self-testing-in-nonhealthcare-key-workers ; Abstract DJ Maybe good news...DIY-testing at home may help limiting burden on testing facilities...results are good enough... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/928055-nature-multiple-mechanisms-of-covid-brain-harm-etc?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/928055-nature-multiple-mechanisms-of-covid-brain-harm-etc?view=stream latests; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41582-021-00593-7 1. Differences in the prevalence of the various neurological symptoms were observed between older (aged 60 years or more) and young (aged less than 18 years) subpopulations. Acute confusion or delirium, fatigue and myalgia tended to dominate in the older group. In patients aged under 18 years, the most common neurological symptoms were impairment of smell and/or taste and headache, and seizures were also noted in some individuals. Alarmingly, mortality in patients with COVID-19 who had one or more neurological manifestations was found to be 27% and was especially high in patients aged 60 years or more. The finding that the prevalence of stroke was 1.2% in people with COVID-19, compared with only 0.2% in those with influenza, is also concerning10. Topical therapy with antiviral drugs and antibodies, administered via nebulizers and nasal sprays at the portal of entry of SARS-CoV-2, is expected to reduce viral loads and minimize the incidence of neurological complications A global consensus is needed on diagnostic approaches, management modalities and follow-up to ensure the well-being of long-haulers in general, and to address the neurological features of COVID-19 in particular DJ CoViD-19 does cause damage all over the body not "just" the respitory system....(Long CoViD therefore most often will be a real issue...not "mental" ...) [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928192-scientists-mystified-wary-as-africa-avoids-covid-disaster-not-so-much[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928192-scientists-mystified-wary-as-africa-avoids-covid-disaster-not-so-much latests; Originally posted by sharon sanders No mystery. Grossly inaccurate reporting. Apart from the spotty medical and news coverage, Africa may also be being helped by having a very young population, with a median age under 20, compared to around 40 for most of Europe.. The fatality rate of the virus is quite low for those under 40. DJ...A young population may help....low testing resulting in low numbers.....However South Africa, Egypt a.o. may give some indications there is a major problem...Trends Africa cases -12%, deaths -18%...Egypt cases +1%, deaths +7%, South Africa cases +47%, deaths -47% (????) but it may be very hard to get a good overview...Africa did see variants in South Africa, Nigeria... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/928214-cidrap-full-icus-amid-covid-surges-could-lead-to-thousands-of-extra-deaths[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/928214-cidrap-full-icus-amid-covid-surges-could-lead-to-thousands-of-extra-deaths ; A modeling study today in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report estimates that 12,000 more people die 2 weeks after US hospitals reach 75% adult intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy amid COVID-19 pandemic surges, a figure that rises to 80,000 when ICUs are full—which is the case now in many hospitals in multiple US states. DJ All the more reason for early action ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/928205-us-hospitalizations-among-the-vaccinated-are-rising[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/928205-us-hospitalizations-among-the-vaccinated-are-rising ; “What we’re starting to see now is an uptick in hospitalizations among people who’ve been vaccinated but not boosted,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Disease, said Tuesday in an interview. “It’s a significant proportion, but not the majority by any means.” DJ It is very likely new subvariants of Delta may be better in evading immunity...but if you do not keep statistics.... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-ag/south-africa-ab/928202-flu-is-spiking-in-south-africa-especially-over-the-past-2-weeks-nicd[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-ag/south-africa-ab/928202-flu-is-spiking-in-south-africa-especially-over-the-past-2-weeks-nicd ; Influenza cases started rising at the end of August but have been spiking in the past two weeks DJ South Africa is now in spring, moving towards summer next month !!!! Flutrackers also reporting high level of flu at US universities.... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/928213-cidrap-austria-moves-to-full-covid-19-lockdown-national-vaccine-mandate[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/928213-cidrap-austria-moves-to-full-covid-19-lockdown-national-vaccine-mandate ; Battling an unprecedented surge like some of its neighbors, Austria's government today announced a full lockdown, the first in Europe to take such dramatic steps amid the continent's fourth surge. DJ Lockdowns are needed-but only work if in place long enough...opening up for christmas-family get-togethers would undo the results of weeks of lockdowns (as we did see in several countries christmas 2020...). Also mandatory vaccinations....how do you make that work ? Vaccine passports ? It may be hard to get 100% of a population (from a certain age) vaccinated...and with vaccine protection being limited it may be wiser to put energy in vaccinating those that accept vaccines...with good communications that can be 90-95%...mixed with enough restrictions... I am not against mandatory vaccines...but you can not pick unvaccinated people just from the street...to enforce vaccination...In the past there have been mandatory vaccinations and they worked in combination with good communications.... -Music...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzFnYcIqj6I[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TzFnYcIqj6I "Here Comes The Rain Again"...Talk To Me - Like Lovers Do....Eurythmics... Stay safe...end of part 2... |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, I started another item on this forum PT-H-IC...Positive Tests, Hospitals, Intensive Care...you could also include Available Capacity (AC with AC-H, AC-IC as sub groups), Duration...Available Staff, lets get real Sec. for security...because I am talking of what in NL is called the "black scenario"...I prefer Doom Scenario...demand for healthcare is (far) bigger then capacity...(Available Staff AS is another factor...going down...maybe 1% per week in a crisis ?) We do have allready selection criteria for hospital/IC. Duration of needed care is a factor...the shorter the expected time one needs care the more chance one gets in. Years of life saved is next...a person of 20 may have more years left then a 60 y/o....Vaccination so far is NOT a criterium...in a worst-worst case scenario a (sort of) lottery/coin-flip may be decisive...in that stage I think vaccinated or not also may become a criterium...(but not official...just on the hospital floor). Some experts allready seeing police/military defending (major) hospitals...those that can get in may survive, those that not get in and are infected will die...We are allready very close to such a scenario in most of Europe...You can move patients to regions with some capacity...but they may get to their limits as well soon. So a step between "DH" Defended Hospitals and now may be Emergency Hospitals (EH)...triage may select for what patient can go where...but EH may be usefull at best for a few weeks... The way to slow down a bit this disaster is lockdown now !!!! But still "politics" keep failing; "saving the economy" insanity...With variants traveling around the globe in vaccinated hosts... In the [url]https://sargasso.nl/de-komende-corona-crash/[/url] or https://sargasso.nl/de-komende-corona-crash/ they work with numbers based on past experiences. In that "model" it takes 8 days between testing positive and 1,7% getting into hospital, 12 days between testing and 0,35% needing ICU... New (sub) variants giving a higher viral load may see those % going up...worsening the crisis...other diseases-also expected to increase-will worsen the situation... Of course if cases are exploding societies get more effected...If people would act wise...limit outdoor activity to the essential the doom-scenario may be only a matter of a few days, weeks... Point is governments fail...running behind the facts, over-optimistic (head of NL-CDC was very excited about the new pills limiting disease..."this winterwave will be the last one"...I think that man is a major problem because he is not realistic on the risks...Dr.J.C. -no doubt about both his expertise, knowledge and his good intentions...but in a crisis you need crisis managers...If you go for "war on the virus" you may need military types...A more military style structure; emergency laws for the duration of the crisis but with a maximum of two years...). There are lots of protests around the globe-and in my opinion the basic point is real; We are taking away freedoms to deal with a crisis. You have to be very carefull with that, set clear goals, have good communications...and we are not doing most of that...no long term strategy or goals...just "saving the economy" and "vaccine religion" with even the vaccine producers themselves stating vaccines AND !!!!! restrictions are needed ! Political failure may be the main problem in this pandemic....and that is not getting any better.... Another reason why I want a lockdown for ALL ! is I am against "vaccination-apartheid". Limiting rights for the unvaccinated... We need a united society not more division...we need bridges not wider gaps...communication not confrontation... end of part 1 (another coffee...) |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ, (part 2-numbers) Delta did get some Asian countries allready in a doom-scenario...Brazil, other South American countries did see such a crisis...Early 2020 Italy, some Eastern European countries may have seen such a crisis on a regional level-getting repeated later on...Parts of the US also have seen this kind of disaster... So numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ can give an indication also on what to expect...November 25 US Thanksgiving, december will see a lot of "family spread events"... Reported cases worldwide november 20...487,756 trend +8%, deaths; 5,989 trend -0,6%. Europe cases november 20....334,891 trend +15%, deaths 3,491 trend +4%. A top 3 for new cases #1 Germany 48,245 (+33% weekly trend) cases reported. #2 UK 40,941 (+11%) #3 Russia 37,120 (-5%)... The US would be #4-36,633 less testing in the weekend-trend +5%, #5 Poland cases 23,414 trend +39%. Proberbly the WHO, some other international organizations (Red Cross, (E/A)CDC, etc) working on "models" on when healthcare will collapse (no longer "if" but "when"...) Statistics may provide a false sense of safety...feeling of control...Here in NL proberbly only 1-in-5 CoViD deaths may have been reported...making it into the statistics...The 18,955 CoViD deaths in worldometers may be less than half the real number of 40,000+ ... Testing capacity is overstretched...some German claims real number of positive testing may be 2 to 3 times the reported statistic...When you look at the UK ZOE tracker app has to be higher then the official numbers but if it is more then 2x the official number testing may simply not be good enough. I believe WHO and ECDC use different percentages to see if testing is at a correct level...maximum of 3%-5% of testing should be positive...In NL 17%+ of allready overstretched testing is positive... A look at global increases of cases (with numbers that may have some meaning...) ; South Africa +82%, France +81%, Finland +66%, NL +48%, Portugal +45%, Poland +39%, Spain +34%, Germany, Denmark but also Peru +33%, Sri Lanka +32%, Austria +30%, Italy +27%, South Korea +26%, Algeria, DRC +22%, Panama, Mozambique +20%, New Zealand +18%, Vietnam +16%, Lebanon, Bangladesh +12%, UK, Laos, Bolivia +11%, Argentina +7%, US +5%, Malaysia, Qatar +4%....the list indicating spread/increase of cases no longer just a European story... Israel cases -0,2% meaning boosters did make a difference-but maybe time to increase restrictions ? For now it is welcome to see cases going down in Greece -1%, Chile, Colombia -2%, Russia -5%, Canada -7%, Indonesia, Paraguay, Bahrain -8%, Thailand -10%, Australia, India, Kenya -11%, Brazil claiming cases -27%, Pakistan -30%....Philippines -35%, China-46% (last week 514, this week 276 cases...). DJ-I am NOT an expert, neutral, objective...in my opinion however-with what was known from corona-virusses in animals-the ONLY realistic strategy is Zero-CoViD...Herd Immunity was bound to fail from the start-even with good vaccines giving false perspectives resulting in to little restrictions... But for China-with a strong government, "state-controlled capitalism", a choice for zero-CoViD was much easier then for "liberal" market oriented countries...Even if "we" wanted to, Zero-CoViD would not "fit" in "our way of living"...Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, Israel being isolated did have a better perspective... Deaths per million worldwide average statistic now at 662,4 , Australia dpm 75, New Zealand 8, Israel 874...learning the hard way...Iceland 99...China DPM =3, Laos 17, Taiwan 36, South Korea 63....Japan 146, Norway 182...Finland 225. US DPM=2,378, UK 2,104...Peru still #1 in that list with 5,976 deaths per million=0,5976 in official statistics of Peruvians died from CoViD...Bulgaria at #2 with 3,953, Bosniaand Herzegovina at #3 with 3,757... Brazil claiming 2,854 dpm, India 333 (!) numbers are "unrealistic"... end of part 2 |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95947 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
part 3 DJ-Being the weekend twitter/Flutracker may be not offering most of the news.. [url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 ; just a reminder. It's not a "peak" until its gone back down. - Whispers... November isn't winter.... - N:K374n - might be one to watch in Germany - ahhh wait, now I get it... DJ Cases flat-lined (in the UK BoJo&Co claim) while cases are going up 11% in (latest) weekly trend...Of course "politics" and embedded experts/press love terms like "exit wave"...Austria being "much less vaccinated" then the UK...in fact just 4% less...Most of western Europe is doing better then most of the US. Australia, New Zealand could be-by now-being better then both Europe and US-high number of vaccines with limited number of population (Australia & New Zealand together just under 26 million ! [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; "Western World" charts are now going vertical in cases. Those billion most powerful & richest people on the planet are now the epicenter of #COVID. Europe as a whole & smaller Western European countries need y-axis adjustments, while the "big" West Europe is catching on fast. - ASTONISHING GRAPH—shows mitigations against #COVID19 are now absent among US states. Vaccines & boosters are good but not enough. The US will pay a heavy price this coming winter, if Europe is any clue to the future winter wave—& US has often followed Europe. #MaskUp #ventilate Very few social distancing mandates remain in effect in the US. Seven states have mask mandates, and five states have some form of gathering restrictions. Many other mandates are in place at the local level. 1/ - Ok, so I've been doing pediatrics for 15 years but never before have I had a patient with 5 identifiable viruses. It's going to be a bad winter. DJ Five infections at once....with risks for further bad variants/recombinations...How bad can it get ? Maybe the main point...the idea was governments govern....politics make rules...not endless bla-bla and blame-games...Some more (re)tweets; Folks if you're qualified to get a COVID booster do so ASAP. If you're not vaxxed please do so ASAP. If you're not vaxxed against influenza do so ASAP. It's going to get apocalyptically bad ASAP in hospitals and healthcare systems. - This winter is gonna be such a shitshow. The west's monumental incompetence and premature declarations of victory, now being reneged on for the Nth time, have legitimized claims the pandemic is a hoax and lockdowns will never end I’ll add one line they forgot to include: Vaccines AND, not vaccines only. - Europe is learning a crucial lesson -- vaccines work, but they alone won't stop Covid now - DJ But vaccines are still used as almost to only tool in both Europe and US....Have the decissionmakers gone blind ? [url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ blaming the unvaccinated may give the vaccinated the idea they can ignore risks...while they may be the biggest group spreading the virus...(besides schoolchildren still not able to get vaccinated...) [url]https://twitter.com/CorneliusRoemer[/url] or https://twitter.com/CorneliusRoemer in German...Healthminister in Germany may decide boosters for older to get priority over vaccinations for children (DJ; background christian democrats in Europe hardly get any young votes...so political priority over a medical one...). Flutrackers; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latests; Hero surgeon killed by Covid was DOUBLE-JABBED DJ It may result in even more HCW-ers giving up the job; high risk not compensated by respect, pay, etc...with politics giving room for wave after wave... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928313-mrna-covid-vaccines-dramatically-increase-endothelial-inflammatory-markers-and-acs-risk-as-measured-by-the-puls-cardiac-test-a-warning[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928313-mrna-covid-vaccines-dramatically-increase-endothelial-inflammatory-markers-and-acs-risk-as-measured-by-the-puls-cardiac-test-a-warning ; https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1....suppl_1.10712 The score is based on changes from the norm of multiple protein biomarkers including IL-16, a proinflammatory cytokine, soluble Fas, an inducer of apoptosis, and Hepatocyte Growth Factor (HGF)which serves as a marker for chemotaxis of T-cells into epithelium and cardiac tissue, among other markers. Elevation above the norm increases the PULS score, while decreases below the norm lowers the PULS score. The score has been measured every 3-6 months in our patient population for 8 years. Recently, with the advent of the mRNA COVID 19 vaccines (vac) by Moderna and Pfizer, dramatic changes in the PULS score became apparent in most patients. This report summarizes those results. A total of 566 pts, aged 28 to 97, M:F ratio 1:1 seen in a preventive cardiology practice had a new PULS test drawn from 2 to 10 weeks following the 2nd COVID shot and was compared to the previous PULS score drawn 3 to 5 months previously pre- shot. Baseline IL-16 increased from 35=/-20 above the norm to 82 =/- 75 above the norm post-vac; sFas increased from 22+/- 15 above the norm to 46=/-24 above the norm post-vac; HGF increased from 42+/-12 above the norm to 86+/-31 above the norm post-vac. These changes resulted in an increase of the PULS score from 11% 5 yr ACS risk to 25% 5 yr ACS risk. At the time of this report, these changes persist for at least 2.5 months post second dose of vac.We conclude that the mRNA vacs dramatically increase inflammation on the endothelium and T cell infiltration of cardiac muscle and may account for the observations of increased thrombosis, cardiomyopathy, and other vascular events following vaccination. DJ Some remarks; As Dr.J.C. keeps pointing out aspirating during vaccinating-to check if you are not hitting a bloodvessel-should have priority. Part of the problem could be in the way vaccinations are done (?). As far as I understand it the group followed allready had hearth-problems...still it is something to take very serious ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928307-covid-19-stigmatising-the-unvaccinated-is-not-justified-correspondence-the-lancet-november-20-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928307-covid-19-stigmatising-the-unvaccinated-is-not-justified-correspondence-the-lancet-november-20-2021 ; CORRESPONDENCE| VOLUME 398, ISSUE 10314, P1871, NOVEMBER 20, 2021 COVID-19: stigmatising the unvaccinated is not justified Günter Kampf Published:November 20, 2021DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(21)02243-1 In the USA and Germany, high-level officials have used the term pandemic of the unvaccinated, suggesting that people who have been vaccinated are not relevant in the epidemiology of COVID-19. Officials’ use of this phrase might have encouraged one scientist to claim that “the unvaccinated threaten the vaccinated for COVID-19”.1 But this view is far too simple. There is increasing evidence that vaccinated individuals continue to have a relevant role in transmission. In Massachusetts, USA, a total of 469 new COVID-19 cases were detected during various events in July, 2021, and 346 (74%) of these cases were in people who were fully or partly vaccinated, 274 (79%) of whom were symptomatic. Cycle threshold values were similarly low between people who were fully vaccinated (median 22·8) and people who were unvaccinated, not fully vaccinated, or whose vaccination status was unknown (median 21·5), indicating a high viral load even among people who were fully vaccinated.2 In the USA, a total of 10 262 COVID-19 cases were reported in vaccinated people by April 30, 2021, of whom 2725 (26·6%) were asymptomatic, 995 (9·7%) were hospitalised, and 160 (1·6%) died.3 In Germany, 55·4% of symptomatic COVID-19 cases in patients aged 60 years or older were in fully vaccinated individuals,4 and this proportion is increasing each week. In Münster, Germany, new cases of COVID-19 occurred in at least 85 (22%) of 380 people who were fully vaccinated or who had recovered from COVID-19 and who attended a nightclub.5 People who are vaccinated have a lower risk of severe disease but are still a relevant part of the pandemic. It is therefore wrong and dangerous to speak of a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Historically, both the USA and Germany have engendered negative experiences by stigmatising parts of the population for their skin colour or religion. I call on high-level officials and scientists to stop the inappropriate stigmatisation of unvaccinated people, who include our patients, colleagues, and other fellow citizens, and to put extra effort into bringing society together. ... https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...243-1/fulltext DJ Blame-games are used by failing politicians to hide their failing strategies....In fact blame-games WORSEN the pandemic ! We need unity not division ! "politics" saving the economy are destroying the economy ....but they also are destroying democracy ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aj/new-york-ab/928077-ny-syracuse-universtiy-averages-40-to-50-cases-day-%E2%80%9Cyou%E2%80%99re-seeing-102-103-degree-fevers-you%E2%80%99re-seeing-a-lot-more-serious-symptoms-consistent-with-a-pretty-difficult-flu%E2%80%9D[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aj/new-york-ab/928077-ny-syracuse-universtiy-averages-40-to-50-cases-day-%E2%80%9Cyou%E2%80%99re-seeing-102-103-degree-fevers-you%E2%80%99re-seeing-a-lot-more-serious-symptoms-consistent-with-a-pretty-difficult-flu%E2%80%9D ; SYRACUSE, N.Y. — Central New York is officially in the flu season as the colder temperatures approach. This year, influenza will compete with another virus: coronavirus. DJ-Another reason for lockdown ! Health Care is running out of capacity !!!! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928220-canada-has-thrown-away-at-least-one-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses-informal-survey[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928220-canada-has-thrown-away-at-least-one-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses-informal-survey ; An informal survey shows that at least one million doses of Canada's COVID-19 vaccine supply have gone to waste. DJ-Beyond criminal ! You may not be able to avoid some vaccines ending up in garbage...but that number should be below 0,1% !!! Proberbly Canada could be doing even better then some other countries ! Exporting vaccines to countries we keep poor-for public relations reasons-without a good plan may see vaccines net getting away from (air)ports... [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/11/articles/animals/other-animals/more-about-sars-cov-2-in-deer/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/11/articles/animals/other-animals/more-about-sars-cov-2-in-deer/ ;DJ Good article; the basic message is we need more study...The conclusion-almost-of "low risk" for deer-to-human spread, and deer-variants of CoViD may be the sort of over-optimism we did see much to often in this global health worsening crisis.... I-as a non-expert-and as "an opinion" think CoViD may allready be spreading on a larger scale in non-human hosts...We do not test enough so we do not find it...But lack of testing and sequencing are constants in this pandemics... Music; Love Of My Life - Queen - 1975 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUJkCXE4sAA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUJkCXE4sAA DJ Love makes live worth living....and there are so many things, creatures to love... |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
Post Reply | Page <1 2829303132 41> |
Tweet
|
Forum Jump | Forum Permissions You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot create polls in this forum You can vote in polls in this forum |