Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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Littlesmile the DIY-at home testing often expects you to go for nasal swabs...the "official testing sites" (at least here in NL) take nose/throat swabs...for PCR-testing. Real number of deaths may be "easier" to make realistic estimates on-compared to the Spanish Flu deaths...We have now better basic civil administration to start with in most countries. Some countries do have a problem there...NOT having a basic administration on births and deaths is making realistic numbers much harder... Then you have to agree on what is a "CoViD-death" (UK/Russia only count those dying within 4 weeks of a positive test...not that realistic...). [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ has cases/deaths per million, per country.... India still claiming 344 deaths per million-while global average is more then twice that number at 700.5 (deaths per million=dpm). Peru has 6,023 dpm...(=0,6% of Peru population died from CoViD)...So if you would take India population 1,400 million and go for 0,6% of that you end up with 8,4 million India deaths...very likely much more realistic then the almost 482,000 India has as official deaths... [url]https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates[/url] or https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates goes in between 11 and 22 million per january 3...The WHO itself [url]https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covid-19-estimating-global-excess-mortality[/url] or https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covid-19-estimating-global-excess-mortality ; A recent assessment of health information systems capacity in 133 countries found that the percentage of registered deaths ranged from 98% in the European region to only 10% in the African region. Countries also use different processes to test and report COVID-19 deaths, making comparisons difficult. To overcome these challenges, many countries have turned to excess mortality as a more accurate measure of the true impact of the pandemic. Excess mortality is defined as the difference in the total number of deaths in a crisis compared to those expected under normal conditions. COVID-19 excess mortality accounts for both the total number of deaths directly attributed to the virus as well as the indirect impact, such as disruption to essential health services or travel disruptions. DJ I did read somewhere WHO goes for 2x to 3x the official reported number of CoViD deaths-now at around 5,5 million-so between 11 and 16,5 million...same range as the Economist ends up with... If you would go for a "maximum realistic number-highest range" maybe 0,6% of a global population put at 8 billion could give the maximum-so around 48 million ? But "death" is clearly defined...at least better then "long CoViD" or "case"...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-nearly-2-4-million-people-have-symptomatic-covid/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-nearly-2-4-million-people-have-symptomatic-covid/ via ZOE-tracker-self reporting...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ even goes for 2,6 million active UK cases january 2... [url]https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=social-distancing&tab=trend[/url] or https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=social-distancing&tab=trend putting UK deaths at 200,000 april/may this year... [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ puts active cases now at 30,6 million. When you go for highest number of cases per million you end up with Andorra-30% of its population testing positive at least once...(Iran, Brazil etc. studies indicate people can catch CoViD several times...) So if you go for 20% of global 8 billion you end up at 1,6 billion global cases this far...if you go for 30% you may see 2,4 billion.... The Spanish Flu may have killed between 2 and 5% of the global population-time range wide between 1917 and 1923, more narrow 1918-1919...The Plague and Roman-time pandemics very likely killing over 30% of the known global population...But there have been civilizations we found traces of-but somehow disappeared...unclear due to what causes...so disease could have ended those civilizations... The Romans had five expeditions into sub-saharan Africa...one of them may have reached Lake Victoria...but may also have had contact with Ebola...[url]https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/11/solving-the-mystery-of-an-ancient-roman-plague/543528/[/url] or https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/11/solving-the-mystery-of-an-ancient-roman-plague/543528/ ... Disease did play a role in ending the Roman Empire [url]https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/03/plagues-roman-empire/473862/[/url] or https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/03/plagues-roman-empire/473862/ but-as always in history-it is a mega-mix of factors... If one claims diseases as a main factor how can it be invading German tribes did not catch the disease that much it also would stop them ? Pandemics and/in history...endless stories ! |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/omicron?loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/omicron?loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false Similar results for Sweden, where BA.2 seems to grow even faster than BA.1 as well! #Omicron #incompletedata And; Because I found bias in the data from India (all BA.2 were found in New Delhi, which had much more samples in the last week), I checked the 5 regions from Denmark. It did not show the same bias though!BA.2 seems to be growing faster than BA.1 (both Omicron) in all Danish regions. DJ We may be missing a terrible lot of info because of the horror-timing of cases exploding during christmas/new year.... [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/390[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/390 ; A similar trend in Sweden's populous Skåne (North or Copenhagen, so no surprise), but of course with much weaker numbers (today's upload) CW 49: 0% (0/67 Om) There, Omicron didn't dominate yet, like it did in Denmark, but within-Omicron dynamics didn't look different. DJ Another finding Omicron did hit the older population in South Africa much harder ; A Lancet preprint looks at omicron's severity in its early epicenter, Gauteng, South Africa Many are discussing the overall result: This wave experienced much less severe disease than past waves. But the age breakdowns tell a slightly different story... https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3996320 So both older age, winter and BA.2 increasing may give another outcome of Omicron exploding in the north part of the globe. [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/german-study-shockingly-discovers-that-sars-cov-2-caused-complement-activation-induces-excessive-cd16-t-cells-with-increased-cytotoxic-functions[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/german-study-shockingly-discovers-that-sars-cov-2-caused-complement-activation-induces-excessive-cd16-t-cells-with-increased-cytotoxic-functions Also factor in long CoViD ? [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/death-rate-skyrockets-40-for-18-64-year-olds[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/death-rate-skyrockets-40-for-18-64-year-olds HT claiming vaccines kills more then CoViD... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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DJ... A "light start" ...[url]https://www.rt.com/news/545068-cia-world-war-ii-mistake-nazis/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/news/545068-cia-world-war-ii-mistake-nazis/ ; In one of the most successful disinformation campaigns of World War II, the Nazis convinced Western powers they were amassing weapons and 100,000 soldiers in the Austro-Bavarian Alps to stage a last stand for survival. Boghardt told The Guardian it wasn’t the Nazis who were responsible for the myth’s success, but actually a mistake by Allen Dulles, who later became head of the CIA and oversaw the Bay of Pigs disaster. - Another successful myth saw Field Marshal Montgomery, one of Britain’s highest-ranking military figures, arrested by the Americans after the Germans convinced them someone was seeking to impersonate him. DJ "Information-wars"..... -Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table global reported cases 1,334,347 +77% ! deaths "only" 4,421 -6%...(several hours later numbers changed, correction ? 1,368,400 cases/4,520 deaths). Of those cases Europe had 593,604 +76%, 2,358 deaths -6%...so getting under 50% of global cases, just over 50% of global deaths...epicenter shifting away from Europe...North America did see 455,137 cases +81%, just 789 deaths -2% but these are still reflecting sunday numbers being reported monday...for most of the globe based on 00.00 hrs-00.00 hrs GMT (so UK Time). South America "only" reporting 79,005 cases- weekly trend there is +162% !!! Former NL Suriname cases +636% ! Argentina cases +204%, Brazil +93%... Asia may be "doing well" with "just"144,,481 cases being reported +62%, 775 deaths -15%....we all know these numbers are very major underreported.. India cases +238%, deaths still -24%...Israel-with very active healthcare-cases +239%, deaths -29%... The "discussion/story" on Omicron "mild" is doing a lot of damage...It is NOT mild at all for older people and children ! For young age it is just as bad as Delta ! Most of the reported Omicron cases were of the BA.1 subvariant while a.o. India, Denmark see BA.2 increasing...Also most of the northern part of the globe is in winter, age/population much more different then that of South(ern) Africa...Healthcare in many places allready at breaking point, testing capacity often failing...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/03/schools-reopen-schedule-winter-break-higher-education-still-closed[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/03/schools-reopen-schedule-winter-break-higher-education-still-closed lots of experts warn reopening most schools per january 10 is unwise...ventilation a major problem....NL cases allready +23%, deaths +8%... DJ-I can not help but notice a sense of despair in a lot of what I read on twitter...repeating mistakes over and over, ignoring science over and over, "media" giving "balanced views" in discussions between scientists and fools...."Reopening schools a succes" , "you can not keep things closed forever"....forgetting the reason why "we limited contacts".... "You can not fix stupid" eventhough "stupid shall kill us all".....What is totally missing is knowing what pandemics did in human history...[url]https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/03/plagues-roman-empire/473862/[/url] or https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/03/plagues-roman-empire/473862/ . The idea that that kind of history can not repeat itself...learning the very, very hard way...virusses are beating us in this "war of the worlds" but "we" simply do not want to see it...very frustrating ! [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues with new Delta subvariant AY.23 Indonesia, BA.2 Omicron ; Only 2 sequences so far both from Indian travelers to Singapore but most of the shared mutations with BA.1 appear to be in the spike NTD between codons 69-212 with the exception of S:T95I so perhaps it is a recombinant or something else. Almost all of the mutations of BA.2 are shared. The sequences also share ORF1a:SL2083I with BA.1 outside of the S gene. But what can go wrong...So there are 18 sequences uploaded on Jan. 2nd 2022 from Indonesia that seem like potential candidate of the second generation Delta. They are still too new to be visible on either Neherlab or Cov-spectrum, but I believe it's worth monitoring from now on. Delta is NOT gone at all ! Omicron BA.1 may be just the first wave....[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-booster-efficacy-questioned-helsinki-study-shows-only-minimal-nab-titers-against-omicron-among-the-elderly-following-booster-shot[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-booster-efficacy-questioned-helsinki-study-shows-only-minimal-nab-titers-against-omicron-among-the-elderly-following-booster-shot Ignoring studies indicating there is a limit to what (present) boosters/vaccines can bring...variants mutate around immunity high speed... STOP THE SPREAD.... but nobody seems to listen... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/preprint-omicron-now-binds-to-mouse-ace2/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/preprint-omicron-now-binds-to-mouse-ace2/ just as a reminder of this pandemic moving into other species, trillions of non-human hosts....IT IS NOT A FLU !!!!! Since the global CDC to NBC keep doing a bad job ; [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/testing/rapid-lft-antigen-tests-swab-your-throat-as-well-as-your-nose/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/testing/rapid-lft-antigen-tests-swab-your-throat-as-well-as-your-nose/ you may not be able to detect Omicron in your nose....test your throat as well ! Why this news has to go via alternative media/twitter ???? -US politics go for what they promised, Democrats want war with Russia, Republicans war with China....and Israel wants the US to do the war against Iran...[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/forums/military-events.6/[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/forums/military-events.6/ .... End of part 1...No further news on B.1.640.2 variant...some of the sequencing may only start next week ? A lancet study on Omicron in Gauteng-South Africa misused as a "claim" Omicron would not bring serious problems for Europe, the America's, Asia....while the study only describes the SA outbreak... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 2, twitter... [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; WHAT!??! FL Surgeon Gen standing in front of an "EARLY Treatment Saves Live" podium saying we need to stop testing EARLY treatment is only possible if we test and diagnose early. Else our treatments are useless. A test is not some conspiracy - it is how we see the virus! DJ..Is there any hope left ? Will "we" never stop repeating stupidity ? U.S. COVID update: More than 1 million new cases, including backlogs - New cases: 1,045,968 - Average: 494,660 (+81,979) - States reporting: 44/50 - In hospital: 104,737 (+6,034) - In ICU: 19,542 (+654) - New deaths: 1,909 - Average: 1,343 (+33) Data: https://newsnodes.com/us If you do not like the results... 1/12 In our paper "The hyper-transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant exhibits significant antigenic change, vaccine escape and a switch in cell entry mechanism", a huge team effort, we describe a fundamental shift in antigenicity and cell entry of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant It is "only mild" ... They finally get it. T cells drive pathology in severe covid-19, as I wrote in Frontiers back in 2020 https://timesofisrael.com/israeli-study-urges-rethink-of-covids-nature-indicates-antioxidants-may-help/amp/ Ignoring science in part by fellow scientists... If you have a good idea, better tell your boss it was his/her idea ! Some retweets from [url]https://twitter.com/chrischirp[/url] or https://twitter.com/chrischirp ; For those outside Australia , some covid context here:
- Major strategy pivot towards “herd immunity”
- ⅓ of cases in last 2 years occurred in last 4 days
- this is an underestimate, since massive testing shortage (25% test positivity rate) 1/ Herd immunity strategy with a corona-virus disease has been stupid from the start ! Australia cases +228%, deaths +35% ... 78% of 915 kids hospitalized last summer with COVID at 6 children’s hospitals were there not just with, but because of COVID; 1.5% (11/713) died, a death rate similar to some types of pediatric open-heart surgery. COVID in kids is not harmless. Let’s stop pretending it is. Childrens right on safety goes even before a right on education ! You should not reopen schools to get children infected in the crazy belief that would provide some immunity...allow parents to go to their jobs...Schools have to be a safe place ! Warning on death data on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk NHS England has not reported hospital deaths since 1 January. The backlog will be reported Wednesday. Data are incomplete yesterday, today and tomorrow. Expect a bigger number reported on Wednesday. DJ-I know people need a break, but it feels like the fire department having a coffee while the house is burning....Decissions like reopening of schools are based on incomplete info/data...we may be missing a lot of info on increase of BA.2 Omicron subvariant spreading much faster then the-now dominant-BA.1 Omicron subvariant, missing a lot of info on Delta sub-variants, B.1.640.2 very likely to be increasing ? in France, UK etc... Many countries face 25-30% of the tests being positive (ECDC norm is <3%, WHO <5%) with testing capacity not enough in most places (and some even claiming we should stop testing...). I could go on with more twitter, more bad news....as long as "Media-Experts-Politics" only learn in the very hardest way-bodies piling up, lots of good scientists, journalists, politicians only get more frustrated... My goal with this scenario's is getting a view on what is happening....by now this pandemic is even more a risk then climate collapse allready was...I would love to see me wrong-based on science (did see dr.j.c. omicron=mild lancet translation nonsense...hopium...please !). Hoping "info would fix stupid" ...but to optimistic there... On B.1.640.2 [url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu ; For those interested first upload of B.1.640.2 onto GISAID was on 4th Nov 2021 from Paris by Roquebert et al, first uploaded Omi was almost 3 weeks later on 22nd Nov 2021 from HK by Alan et al and as pointed out there havent been any new sequences uploaded since before Christmas... this virus has had a decent chance to cause trouble but never really materialised (as far as we can tell at least... So maybe B.1.640.2 is "selling news" not science ? Lots of chat about B.1.640.2 in the last few days - just a few points to keep in mind: - B.1.640.2 actually predates Omicron - in all that time there are exactly... 20 sequences (compared to the >120k Omis in less time) Def not one worth worrying about too much at the mo.. He may be wrong there [url]https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/dossiers/coronavirus-covid-19[/url] or https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/dossiers/coronavirus-covid-19 did give a warning december 31....hope to learn more on it in a new weekly update |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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[url]https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220104-france-s-daily-covid-19-cases-top-270-000[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220104-france-s-daily-covid-19-cases-top-270-000 ; French health authorities on Tuesday said they had registered 271,686 new Covid-19 infections, the highest recorded to date, confirming France's position as Europe's hardest-hit country as the Omicron wave sweeps across the continent. The more-contagious Omicron variant of coronavirus drove the number of confirmed cases in France to more than 160,000 per day last week and more than 200,000 for four consecutive days over the weekend. France on Saturday became the sixth country in the world to report more than 10 million Covid-19 infections since the outbreak of the pandemic, according to official data. "The tidal wave has indeed arrived, it's enormous, but we will not give in to panic," Health Minister Olivier Véran told parliament. In a fresh effort to combat Covid transmission, French MPs on Monday began debating draft legislation that would require most people to be vaccinated against Covid-19 before entering public spaces. The bill would make it mandatory for people to show proof of being vaccinated – and not just a negative Covid test or proof one has recovered from coronavirus – to access public venues and transport. Dubbed the "vaccine pass", the bill's main measure is aimed at convincing France's remaining 5 million unvaccinated people over the age of 12 to get inoculated. DJ Vaccine passports do NOT stop the spread...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table reporting UK 218,724 new cases... On B.1.640.2 [url]https://www.thenationalnews.com/coronavirus/2022/01/04/covid-19-what-is-the-b16402-variant-first-discovered-in-france/[/url] or https://www.thenationalnews.com/coronavirus/2022/01/04/covid-19-what-is-the-b16402-variant-first-discovered-in-france/ ; Experts have played down fears about a relatively new coronavirus variant first detected in France and linked to travel to Cameroon. Researchers at the IHU Méditerranée Infection in Marseille posted their as yet not peer reviewed findings on December 29, on the website medRxiv. They detailed 12 infections in the same geographical area of south-eastern France from the variant tentatively identified as B.1.640.2. - A website called Thailand Medical had claimed that there had been 952 cases of B.1.640.2 as of January 1, without offering verifiable evidence. According to Dr Tom Peacock, a virologist at the Department of Infectious Disease at Imperial College London, the discovery of B.1.640.2 predates that of the Omicron variant by several weeks. He said the first published report on B.1.640.2 by researchers was on November 4. DJ Point is French Public Health did give a warning for it december 31...[url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu ; (so full disclosure on this - right after I posted this thread a new 640.2 sequence from Marseille got uploaded - fact still remains this is a total of 21 sequence over 2.5 months. The odd sequence, or even cluster, may continue to appear but zero sign currently its taking off) So where did Thailand Medical News get the allmost 1,000 samples per january 3 from ? French database ? Somehow not getting more into the news ? [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-shows-that-melatonin-based-drugs-inhibit-sars-cov-2-entry-into-the-brain-and-prevent-damage-of-cerebral-vessels-might-be-good-for-long-covid[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-shows-that-melatonin-based-drugs-inhibit-sars-cov-2-entry-into-the-brain-and-prevent-damage-of-cerebral-vessels-might-be-good-for-long-covid another interesting study on melatonin... [url]https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1478379407882559493/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1478379407882559493/photo/1 London-UK in short... Also confirmed: has declared a critical incident due to high demand, staff absences and "rapidly rising rates of Covid-19" leading to increased admissions #livingwithcovid Great Western Hospital declares a critical incident this morning. Good to see transparent announcement from here: DJ [url]https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections[/url] or https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections trying to look into nearby weeks for the UK... Greece has recorded 50 126 new cases in the last 24 hours. For a population of around 10.7 million, that is equivalent to 1 in every 213 people testing positive DJ Simply crazy numbers allmost 0,5% of all Greeks testing positive on one day...(maybe some delays in reporting...still crazy !) "Omicron forms a distinct antigenic cluster that is sufficiently different that, if this was influenza, it would likely be time for a vaccine update" And Omicron is still spreading-so mutating-like "crazy"....[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=IND[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=IND ; BA.2 now 1% of cases in India...BA.1 5% over last 60 days...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=IND&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=IND&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false 7% of India cases december 24. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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DJ, Record numbers-still most cases NOT will have seen any testing....One of the very alarming "new developments" in this pandemic is Omicron (with the BA.2 variant now spreading much faster, while BA.1 is gaining dominance around the globe) and B.1.640.2 have that many mutations it is getting close to a"new" coronavirus. Very likely some of the around 200 subvariants of Delta still find places to spread...coinfect with Omicron and/or other variants...Coinfections with flu also has been detected, other coinfections-also in non-human hosts-more then likely.... So where does this put us ? In fact-of course-we have been living with viral diseases since humans are around...We did find/fight (for) a balance...do not have any other options left...still we have to reorganize the way we live-just like with climate "change/collapse"....and that is a very major problem. DJ-In my very limited-non expert view viral diseases, pandemics can end us.....finish humans.... If we keep failing-like we do with climate collapse-to understand the risks "stupid will kill us"! Nature does not joke....we better get much clever fast ! The idea that one variant of CoViD will replace another variant may be outdated...CoViD "started a family" and "they now all spread together".... My basic idea is STOP THE SPREAD ! And I still believe in that idea...limiting contacts=limiting spread... We do not stop the spread because we are "such social beings caring for eachother" but for economic reasons-only in part greed. You have to have an economy to have healthcare...to make human life possible. But we may have been "having a very destructive economy"...refind a sort of balance with nature. History did show pandemics are NOT a joke-diseases were part of the end of the (Western) Roman Empire. Also in the 21st century-maybe even because of it-high speed travel, allmost 8 billion people-pandemics can cause very serious problems-we better start facing that ! And there are so many options, choices to make...but it all starts with improving communications. Limiting airtravel to 5-10% of pre-pandemic level would put at least limits to spreading variants/virus around the globe like we did with the wild type/Wuhan early 2020, Delta april 2021, Omicron november 2021...Airtravel is the basis of this pandemic...WE are doing this to ourselves ! By that we are killing ourselves ! Like we kill ourselves via climate change.... STOP IT ! end of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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DJ, Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ; New reported cases-in part no doubt delayed reporting; 2,150,463 weekly trend +82% !!! Deaths as far as reported as CoViD deaths 7,190 trend -3%. No doubt most of the new cases will be Omicron-a lot BA.1, an increasing number BA.2-the worser type...still lots of Delta subvariants-some of the subvariants very likely to increase. B.1.640.2 also very likely...again people/non human hosts may carry more then one variant...The CoViD-family now has several family members different enough from eachother to coexist... We lack testing/sequencing capacity...in fact may hardly know what is hitting us... "Media-Experts-Politics" "the show must go on" still in denial of how bad this pandemic is getting...Danish numbers Omicron cases 2/3 of Delta cases ending up in hospital, UK study claiming only 1/3 "so it is mild"....and yes...vaccinated/booster does decrease chances of ending up at a ventilator/ICU or dead...Boosters offer 75% protection for a short time-dropping to 40% after 10 weeks-against symptromatic infection....some studies suggest...I would have to look it up...for the bigger picture I simply do not care for that kind of studies... variants are now developing that fast those studies are "old and outdated" by the time they are presented... Variants are getting better and better in evading immunity...we can NOT !!!!! vaccinate ourselves out of this pandemic !!! That was known at the start of this pandemic-when one does look at corona viral disease in animals...Culling /killing all the animals in an infected area as-often-the only solution. Still "we" went for herd immunity...now going for herd-immunity with vaccines...no long term strategy...even the best experts with decades of study/experience now facing questions they could not even dream of in their worst nightmares.. We simply do NOT have ANY experts for this kind of crisis...we have very good epidemiologists, virologists, but they have never faced this kind of outbreaks... We need leaders that can unite the people-not further divide them like Macron in France [url]https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220105-macron-says-he-wants-to-piss-off-france-s-unvaccinated[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220105-macron-says-he-wants-to-piss-off-france-s-unvaccinated France 90% of 18+ allready is vaccinated ! ...Germany is splitting up again with major protests in the former East Germany every monday evening against mandatory vaccinations...In NL -I am very sorry to say-police is getting unable-in part due to spending cuts-to deal with protests in a correct manner... So numbers; Europe reporting 1,092,014 new cases-weekly trend +72%, deaths 3,236 trend -4% ...when you look at UK numbers-going for "natural & booster immunity (also in children) cases 218,724, trend +52%, deaths (as far as reported as CoViD deaths) only 48..trend however +52% last week UK reported 599 Covid deaths, last 7 days it grew to 909...allmost 130 per day... North America reported 634,528 new cases-most of them in the US..trend +99% (US +100%) deaths 1,962 trend +1% (US +2%). In South America Argentina reported 81,210 new cases...South America trend for cases +156%, deaths "only still" +4%.. Asia-home to 4 billion+ people...India underreporting 58,097 new cases..Asia trend for cases +75%...India trend +316% !!! Asia deaths still -11%, India -14%.... Israel cases +215%, Philippines +1,512% for cases...China cases +33%....sticking to Zero Covid will be very hard-with winter olympics on its way...even with very much restrictions... Oceania then...cases +248%, deaths +47%...51 deaths last week, 75 this last 7 days...Australia cases +250%, deaths +44%...New Zealand cases +8%, deaths just 1 for each week...so 0% change. To finish this list Africa...cases +6%, deaths +27%...South Africa cases -36%, deaths however +63% (last week 366, this week 597), Zimbabwe-also hit very hard at the start of Omicron, cases still +4%, deaths +14% with limited testing...Some "experts" being very fast in their claims South Africa Omicron data showed "it was only mild" nonsense...you can only make claims after at least 4 weeks after cases going up...long term issues is even another matter...most "Media-Experts-Politcs" simply ignore long CoViD...part of the strategy to do so is by not having a clear definition to start with... A look at variants with [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/393[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/393 ; So there are 18 sequences uploaded on Jan. 2nd 2022 from Indonesia that seem like potential candidate of the second generation Delta. They are still too new to be visible on either Neherlab or Cov-spectrum, but I believe it's worth monitoring from now on. Substitutions on top of AY.23:
DJ 23 mutations on top of the AY.23 Delta sub-variant...I would have to look for how many mutations AY.23 itself did show (and compared to what ?) ...I do not have the knowledge for that...but is this Indonesia Delta subvariant not getting also close to being a new kind of CoViD-virus ? Indonesia cases only +25% ? End of part 2...part 3 flutrackers etc. |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 3, DJ I try to balance my view with info from experts-since I am not an expert at all ! (Maybe an expert in not being an expert !). Try to get a general view, helicopter view, the big picture...learning from those with the knowledge, try to find out what makes sense to me... I do have a very limited history background...history is also confronted with lots of views on what are the important facts and why, what did they mean ? Maybe one basic lesson from history is to keep open minded the best you can...try to understand people, choices they (could) make...not judge those choices how bad the actions may have been... In the 20th century people did kill eachother on an industrial level so many times it would be wise people would show more selfreflection...think even more before acting... -A look at Flutrackers; In my opinion often with a bit more expertism...people with better medical knowledge then on this forum. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/933971-cidrap-pandemic-birth-tied-to-poor-development[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/933971-cidrap-pandemic-birth-tied-to-poor-development ; A pair of new US studies detail COVID-19 risk and protective factors in infants in the first 6 months of life, one showing that being born during the pandemic is linked to impaired neurodevelopment, and the other finding that breast milk may contain SARS-CoV-2 antibodies that are not significantly reduced by pasteurization for as long as 6 months. DJ-Good news in itself...I think stress-reduction would be welcome for most people... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/933970-cidrap-early-israeli-findings-show-fivefold-boost-from-fourth-covid-vaccine-dose[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/933970-cidrap-early-israeli-findings-show-fivefold-boost-from-fourth-covid-vaccine-dose ; Researchers from Israel reported promising preliminary findings from a study on fourth COVID-19 vaccine shots, which suggest the second booster produces a fivefold increase in antibody levels. More global headlines
DJ; What is the long term plan ? A booster vaccination every month ? Can we get vaccines protecting to all kinds of Corona-infections ? Should we not be doing much more to limit spread as long as vaccines are simply not good enough on the long run ? In my opinion China, New Zealand and a few other countries are the few with a long-term strategy...Would this pandemic have ended if we did follow their strategies ? Lots of testing. stop travel, strict isolation for those testing positive ? The "dominant" (lack of) strategy seems still to be going for some sort of herd immunity with the help of lots of vaccines, medication...so far the pandemic is "not moving in the right direction" to put it polite...( We are totally f%&ked up...in a total disaster, with panic-control based on hopium as a sort of last stand..) [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream latest; vaccines do not work well in Iceland DJ Herd immunity/vaccination-booster strategy is NOT getting us out of this pandemic ! Did buy us limited time we wasted on reopening and "hopium"...time for a better strategy ! But since "leaders" have to do the job we need other people/visions to get to another strategy...Still-most people around the globe even did not get a chance to get just ONE vaccine ! So if you have the luxery of a free vaccines-take it ! YES there are risks ! But it still offers-for now-at least some protection even against severe disease from Omicron ! Not much in this world is perfect ! Flutrackers full of avian-flu-so far most in birds...but no longer "only" H5N1...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza the H5 "family" goes from H5N1 to H5N9...but it is a much larger avian flu family going from H1N1 to H15N9...no doubt lots of new developments "as we speak". Hosts can catch both CoViD and "A-Flu"...so it can mix both ways; CoViD in birds with flu, or flu in people, cats etc. with CoViD variants..."endless possibilities".... Sublineage BA.2 not spotted by S-gene drop tests. That variant does not have the spike del 69-70 mutation. DJ Testing most likely a growing problem both in capacity and in tests itself .. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/933821-there-s-a-new-drug-to-prevent-covid-19-but-there-won-t-be-nearly-enough-for-americans-who-are-eligible[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/933821-there-s-a-new-drug-to-prevent-covid-19-but-there-won-t-be-nearly-enough-for-americans-who-are-eligible .....DJ Worldometers put active global cases at allmost 34 million...number going up with 1 million+ per day and still an undercounting due to lack of testing...boosters/medications only for an exclusive club of rich that did cause the problem but does not want to pay the price...the extreme large numbers is the problem in itself...average daily global cases by now 1 million+ if only 1% would need hospital care-10,000 people per day worldwide needing hospitalcare is simply impossible to deal with...wake up ! Get real ! LOCKDOWN NOW ! STOP THE SPREAD ! I see myself as an optimistic person-we can get out of this mess, we are doing it to ourselves...limit contacts, spread...not high tech ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/933806-cidrap-covid-activity-ramps-up-in-india-middle-east[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/933806-cidrap-covid-activity-ramps-up-in-india-middle-east ; COVID activity ramps up in India, Middle East Filed Under: COVID-19 Lisa Schnirring | News Editor | CIDRAP News | Jan 03, 2022 India today began vaccinating teens as its latest COVID-19 wave gained momentum, and some countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), reported new case rises. India enters third surge Ever since it battled a catastrophic COVID-19 surge last spring, India has been bracing for another round of infections and making preparations. Over the past few days, cases have sharply risen, but hospitalizations remain low, New Delhi health officials said yesterday, according to Reuters. Cases had dropped to about 6,000 a day, but daily totals have risen sharply for 5 days in a row, with 33,750 reported today, with much of the activity from New Delhi and Mumbai. So far, the country has reported 1,700 Omicron cases. Today, India opened vaccination to teens ages 15 to 18, with campaigns at schools and health centers across the country, according to Reuters. India has the world's largest adolescent population. So far, the country has immunized more than 3.8 million teens. Younger age groups have fueled the initial rise in Omicron cases in other countries, including the United Kingdom, and health officials are using vaccines as a key tool for keeping schools open, amid surging levels in many countries, especially in the wake of holiday gatherings. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia's daily COVID-19 cases rose above the 1,000-case threshold for the first time since August, and in the neighboring United Arab Emirates (UAE), cases crossed the 2,500-case threshold, according to a separate Reuters report. Record highs in earlier affected countries Despite case reporting delays over the holidays, many countries reported record daily cases over the past few days, including Australia, where hospitalizations are rising, but not at a level that is overwhelming facilities. Staff illnesses, however, are contributing to pressure on the health system. Britain on Jan 1 reported a new daily record high of 162,572 cases, with hospitalizations and deaths at lower levels than earlier waves. Today, the country's Prime Minister Boris Johnson said officials are closely watching the numbers and hospital trends, but so far, the virus appears milder and no new restrictions are warranted for now. He also acknowledged that hospitals are likely to face increasing pressure in the weeks ahead. Other European countries reported new daily record highs over the New Year's holiday, including France, Greece, Italy, and Portugal. Meanwhile, United States on Dec 29 reported a world daily record high of more than 484,000 new cases. More global headlines
DJ Both India and China going for mass vaccinations...billions of them...most used vaccines around a willing globe are NOT mRNA vaccines.... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/934029-intern-med-a-case-of-suspected-tuberculous-pleurisy-and-coronavirus-disease-2019-comorbidity[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/934029-intern-med-a-case-of-suspected-tuberculous-pleurisy-and-coronavirus-disease-2019-comorbidity ; Abstract DJ CoViD in parts of the globe with allready high HIV+ population will be a lot worse...TB/CoViD coinfection (with [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis#Medication_resistance[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis#Medication_resistance a growing problem) is something you would love to avoid... Not FluTrackers [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/world-health-organization-warns-that-current-exponential-spread-of-omicron-could-lead-to-more-dangerous-and-lethal-variants-emerging[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/world-health-organization-warns-that-current-exponential-spread-of-omicron-could-lead-to-more-dangerous-and-lethal-variants-emerging ;DJ I can not copy parts of the good info-but agree with the basic story - from a pandemic point of view "Omicron being mild" is undone by its very high spread...Also "it will run out of variants" is not science-based hopium, unrealistic "optimism"non-sense stopping us from taking needed actions ! Because we have to do much more ! Vaccines will not save us-at best buy us time...This pandemic is going exponential ! PLEASE !!! Try to look back at how it looked like early 2020-and where we are now....where do we go from here has to do with what actions we take and when....Do we want to see 100,000 "extra deaths" per day as a new normal claiming 50+ y/o "died from old age"-nonsense ? We have to do more-the good news is we CAN do more ! end of part 3...enough time so part 4 is twitter... |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 4A, twitter; tech-problem due to twitter ?) Here's the main problem for ICUs. The 70+ cohort was at 1/3 of its admissions per 100k peak just two weeks ago & they are at 68% now. While younger broke their records previously, it's the 70+ group that's the most vulnerable; #SARS2 seems to have just reached them in this wave. DJ-I am starting to hate "it is only mild" non-sense ! Omicron-in fact-just started ! Lots of indications Omicron and young children results in very high spread and record number of children ending up in hospital...even with schools still closed in many places....From a pandemic view a million+ cases per day is a total disaster ! U.S. COVID update: Number in hospital sees biggest one-day jump to date - New cases: 838,080* - Average: 555,461 (+60,801) - States reporting: 47/50 - In hospital: 113,424 (+8,687) - In ICU: 20,617 (+1,075) - New deaths: 2,358 * Includes backlogs Data: https://newsnodes.com/us Just a reminder most cases/deaths never have seen any testing at all ! Some "experts" still sticking to "Omicron ending this pandemic-mild"claims...we are running out of hospital staff...worldwide that is ! We are running out of testing capacity...forget about testing in animals, sequencing... Compared to the other variants, Omicron is less trophic for the lower respiratory tract and therefore less prone to cause pneumonitis. This probably explains the lower case-fatality and case-ventilation rates. However, the expectation that somehow Omicron variant will even relatively uncommon bad outcomes (death or permanent disability) will occur in large numbers. 2. There is no evidence that natural infection with SARS-CoV-2 leads to sustain protection against re-infection. Hence, protective herd immunity cannot be achieved by "letting it rip". 3. Variants arise due to massive (uncontrolled) transmission events. This is how each of the previous variants of concern have arisen. The rate of transmission in many countries right now (including Australia) makes it very likely that new variants will arise. A lot of sense and realism ! Future variants may be even more transmissible and may be more pathogenic (as was the case with Delta). For all these reasons, we are NOT on a good track towards elimination of COVID-19. It will not be eliminated without concerted and coordinated action. That action needs toachieve a low rate of transmission (Reff < 1) simultaneously across the entire planet. The good news is that this probably only needs to be sustained for a few weeks to be effective in leading to elimination but it does need to be effective and simultaneous. How can this be done? - Clearly the backbone of the response needs to be effective, equitable and acceptable vaccination: sufficient to achieve high levels of neutralising antibodies in most (> 90%) of the population. Some slippage in either effectiveness (level of neutralising antibodies) or coverage(eg due to refusal) can probably be accommodated by implementation of additional measures to reduce airborne transmission: universal use of well-fitted N95 masks indoors, effective ventilation and filtration of indoor environments, and TTIQ. This "vaccine plus" strategy is feasible and can achieve Reff < 1.0. We need international cooperation at the highest level to achieve this, simultaneously, across the planet. This is our only way out. We've tried magical thinking - its not working. We now need to do the hard work. Why this has to go via twitter ? (Good link to page with advice how to keep CoViD out...) |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 4b Somehow new info did not show up... During mixed infection of primary hNECs, Omicron rapidly outcompeted Delta and was the only virus detectable 24 hours post-infection. In contrast, both viruses remained in similar quantities in the Vero-AT cells, and in Calu-3 cells Delta dominated
by 72 hours post-infection. DJ Delta/Omicron coinfection likely ? U.S. hospitals update: - Capacity in use: 75.9% (+0.8) - With COVID: 16.21% (+2.3) - With flu: 0.37% (+0.03) - With flu and COVID: 0.04% (+0.006) - ICU capacity in use: 78.5% (+0.9) - With COVID: 26.1% (+1.5) - With flu: 0.32% (+0.03) DJ With cases going up and staff going down the crisis is unfolding... DJ So YES it will effect global logistics, food, energy....It would be more then welcome we could see global governments/politics serving humankind...but they are preparing for WorldWar Three... The hyper-transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant exhibits significant antigenic change, vaccine escape and a switch in cell entry mechanism DJ link [url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.03.21268111v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.03.21268111v1 ; Vaccination-based exposure to spike protein derived from early SARS-CoV-2 sequences is the key public health strategy against COVID-19. Successive waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections have been characterised by the evolution of highly mutated variants that are more transmissible and that partially evade the adaptive immune response. Omicron is the fifth of these Variants of Concern (VOCs) and is characterised by a step change in transmission capability, suggesting significant antigenic and biological change. It is characterised by 45 amino acid substitutions, including 30 changes in the spike protein relative to one of the earliest sequences, Wuhan-Hu-1, of which 15 occur in the receptor-binding domain, an area strongly associated with humoral immune evasion. In this study, we demonstrate both markedly decreased neutralisation in serology assays and real-world vaccine effectiveness in recipients of two doses of vaccine, with efficacy partially recovered by a third mRNA booster dose. We also show that immunity from natural infection (without vaccination) is more protective than two doses of vaccine but inferior to three doses. Finally, we demonstrate fundamental changes in the Omicron entry process in vitro, towards TMPRSS2-independent fusion, representing a major shift in the replication properties of SARS-CoV-2. Overall, these findings underlie rapid global transmission and may alter the clinical severity of disease associated with the Omicron variant. So this study finds natural immunity still effective but a booster vaccination may do even better...No doubt it will have info on what kind of "natural infection protection" they mean... Further news-just from this twitter, at home testing-test prices going up in the US, BA.2 variant growing, shops, services limiting because of staff problems... why ! ? ! ? [url]https://twitter.com/chrischirp[/url] or https://twitter.com/chrischirp retweets; I’ve had sooo many needlephobic people message me. It’s very serious. Half of the fear is public embarrassment. I tell people to go to vax centre & tell staff straight away. Most have a quiet room they can use & take the time you need. What do you tell them ? DJ Where are the nasal vaccine-sprays ? Not being able to make plans without wondering if they will be cancelled, or train cancelled so you can't get there. This is not living with it. Worrying about seeing vulnerable friends or family is not living with it. Being vulnerable & having to shield is not living with it. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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Twitter copy problems Because both Omicrons are growing so fast, and there only were sequences available for the first day of week 52, I made new daily figures with the same data. The percentage of BA.2 compared to Omicron as a whole, seems to be growing fast! DJ Lots of info going on twitter but putting it here is a problem... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/diet/vegetarian-diet-may-provide-more-protection-against-severe-covid-than-triple-vaccination/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/diet/vegetarian-diet-may-provide-more-protection-against-severe-covid-than-triple-vaccination/ ; After adjusting for important confounders, participants who reported following plant-based diets had a 73% lower odds of moderate Covid, and those following plant-based or pescatarian diets had 59% lower odds of severe Covid. Results: There were 568 COVID-19 cases and 2316 controls. Among the 568 cases, 138 individuals had moderate-to-severe COVID-19 severity whereas 430 individuals had very mild to mild COVID-19 severity. After adjusting for important confounders, participants who reported following ‘plant-based diets’ and ‘plant-based diets or pescatarian diets’ had 73% (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.81) and 59% (OR 0.41, 95% CI 0.17 to 0.99) lower odds of moderate-to-severe COVID-19 severity, respectively, compared with participants who did not follow these diets. Compared with participants who reported following ‘plant-based diets’, those who reported following ‘low carbohydrate, high protein diets’ had greater odds of moderate-to-severe COVID-19 (OR 3.86, 95% CI 1.13 to 13.24). No association was observed between self-reported diets and COVID-19 infection or duration. Conclusion In six countries, plant-based diets or pescatarian diets were associated with lower odds of moderate-to-severe COVID-19. These dietary patterns may be considered for protection against severe COVID-19*.
* Actually, the protective effect of not eating meat may be greater than the protective effect of being triple vaccinated if you consider the recent revelations from the UKHSA Part of this pandemic story is virusses jumping from animals into humans...Less meat consumption would decrease both pandemic risks AND climate change ! [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/05/smaller-class-size-better-ventilation-needed-keep-schools-open-lockdowns[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/05/smaller-class-size-better-ventilation-needed-keep-schools-open-lockdowns ; The Youth Perspective Platform, a committee from the Social and Cultural Planning Bureau, said that schools could continue to remain open even during a lockdown if schools switch to teaching children in smaller groups. Director of the committee, Kim Putters, told the Trouw that students should always be able to go to school to benefit children's educational progress. According to the committee, teachers need to work in smaller groups to open safely. Smaller groups are safer and allow teachers to focus more on each student individually. "You can maintain social distance better and better look at the individual needs of the pupils," the Youth Perspective Platform said. School buildings would also require improved ventilation. "The importance of space, ventilation and general hygiene is obvious, as aerosols play an important role in the transmission of coronavirus. Therefore, good ventilation or air filtering is essential for a safe school environment," the committee wrote. Schools and municipalities have to carry 70 percent of the costs to improve ventilation. The government pays the remaining 30 percent. Some schools have been unable to afford new ventilation systems. The committee wanted the government to increase financial support to remodel schools. "Remove the obstacles as quickly as possible so that school buildings and classrooms become Covid proof and the ventilation backlog is caught up," the committee said DJ We have to things in a more clever way ! Mix work/study from home and at school/workplace better... End of part 4C? |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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KiwiMum
Chief Moderator Joined: May 29 2013 Status: Offline Points: 29680 |
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Josh you're spot on about the staffing shortages. Years ago I read something about disaster planning in the US and it said that the biggest concern was staff not showing up to work and there was debate about trying to force people in critical jobs to turn out to work. The problem was that if it was a pandemic situation, people might stay at home in order to care for sick family members or because they didn't want to risk catching the virus and taking it home to their family. And if it were a conflict type situation, people might stay at home in order to protect their home and family from others. But it went on to say that critical jobs included ones in the service industries (power, water, phones) and things like workers at gas stations. In fact, in order for society to function at all, all sorts of low paid work was essential. And I think we're seeing that now in this pandemic. Certainly here in NZ, supermarket workers are classed as essential workers even thought they are some of the lowest paid in the country. With a decent proportion of them not turning up for work for whatever reason, society would grind to a halt. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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[url]https://www.rt.com/russia/545250-kazakhstan-protests-csto-military-help/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/russia/545250-kazakhstan-protests-csto-military-help/ ; The Kazakh president has asked the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) for help amid violent unrest gripping the nation, claiming that “terrorists” were overrunning strategic facilities across the country. These highly organized “terrorists” had been trained abroad, Tokayev alleged. DJ Kazakhstan is in between Russia-China-Iran....[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/u-s-e-u-can-t-grab-ukraine-without-a-fight-so-they-re-overthrowing-government-of-kazakhstan[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/u-s-e-u-can-t-grab-ukraine-without-a-fight-so-they-re-overthrowing-government-of-kazakhstan "Unrest" organized by the west ? Russia and China will act...Forget about international cooperation on a worsening pandemic... -[url]https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220105-france-reports-new-record-of-more-than-332-000-new-covid-19-cases-in-24-hours[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220105-france-reports-new-record-of-more-than-332-000-new-covid-19-cases-in-24-hours ; France registered a record of more than 332,000 new COVID-19 cases in the last 24 hours, while the number of deaths also rose as the country battles a fifth wave of the virus. The final number of new French COVID cases stood at 332,252 - slightly below an earlier indication given to the French parliament from Health Minister Olivier Veran. The number of COVID-19 deaths in hospitals rose by 246 in the last 24 hours, taking the total since the pandemic began to 97,670. The number of COVID patients in hospital intensive care units (ICUs) stood at 3,695 and there were over 20,000 COVID patients in hospital in total, the highest number since late May. France is backing on ramping up its COVID-19 vaccination programme to avoid having to take any drastic new restrictions to curb the spread of the virus. DJ Elections in France on their way...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table global cases will-again-go over the 2 million...UK reporting 194,747 new cases... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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DJ, Extreme high number of new cases reported. I think by now delay in reporting will no longer be the main factor...increase of spread during Christmas and New Year now pushing up numbers...reopening schools may become another new spread-event soon. So a look at those numbers at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ; Global new reported cases; 2,548,556, global weekly trend +78%, deaths-still only 7,520 trend -2% Testing capacity is overstretched by far in most places..so the real numbers must be several times higher. Omicron-but also very likely some other (sub)variants will increase further...so the reported numbers indicate testing capacity/level of positive tests...(in many places 1-in-4, 1-in-3 tests are positive, WHO norm is 5%, ECDC norm is 3% of tests being positive to claim testing is enough to have at least some view on events.) So if number has to go up, testing capacity and/or level of positive tests has to go up... However on a local/regional level statistics still give indications. France reporting 332,252 new cases is "crazy"! Does not "fit in" with how Omicron is "exploding" in other countries. Is B.1.640.2 a factor ? On a weekly basis/trend France cases +88%...Italy allready +136%...so maybe France ending up in such extreme numbers because they started the increase at a high level ? French presidential elections/limited restrictions no doubt also a factor... But France has a population of 65,5 million, the UK population is 68,4 million...BoJo&Co refusing any meaningfull steps to limit spread...with UK ending up "only" at 194,747 cases (+40%).... The USA in extreme numbers 704,661 (+89%) cases, 1,802 (0%) deaths...population 334 million. Still-in relative terms-doing better then both France and the UK...(translating UK population to US numbers would see the UK with allmost 1 million cases...) . Argentina also showing up...95,159 new cases +155%...population of 45.8 million...52 deaths still weekly trend is +60% (last week 147, this week 235). Southern Africa did report cases going down but deaths going up... SA cases -24%, deaths +80%, Zimbabwe cases -8%, deaths -10% ? Africa as a "region" cases still +8%, deaths +27%...but testing very limited... Europe had 1,236,359 new cases yesterday...+65%, North America did see 777,978 new cases +89%, South America cases 168,401, +146%...Colombia cases +213%, Brazil cases +113%, Chile +39%..it is summer in most of South America... Asia-a world on its own-cases as far as reported 244,531...+92% weekly trend. Most reported Asian cases came from India (only) reporting 90,928 cases +412% !!! Turkey as #2 in real numbers with 66,467 new cases, trend +83%... In trends Philippines +1,488% is shocking !!! Reporting 10,775 new cases they may have come from a low point, low number for cases...Deaths +30% (324 to 422 this last 7 days...) Israel reporting 8,763 new cases, trend +257% (Israel deaths last week 4, this week 10=+150% but to low to be a good indicator on its own...). Oceania cases 65,202 trend +252%...Most cases from Australia (64,735) trend +254%...New Zealand reporting just 40 new cases, trend +6%... New Zealand 0 deaths, Australia 19 deaths-trend +65%... One of my major worries is if Omicron BA.1 numbers go down other (sub)variant numbers may go up....Omicron NOT replacing fully other (sub)variants...going from one peak to another without much pause...Keeping healthcare overstretched all the time... Discussion on [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/393[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/393 ...was there in error in uploading data from AY.23 Indonesia sequences ? When I look at global numbers at worldometers the 900,000 max cases of april do no longer jump out...low points of last year 350,000-400,000 new cases per day....Do we have to see 800,000-1 million cases per day as "a low level" in 2022 ? Given healthcare eroding, cases growing explosive even 1% of 1 million cases needing hospitalcare=10,000 cases is more then hospital capacity may be able to deal with now...Maybe optimizing/reorganizing...sending in the army (for low care fieldhospitals) could still offer some-live saving-room ? Omicron BA.2 (with Eek=E484K and NellY N501Y) is increasing...pushing up numbers in a.o. India...cases exploding worldwide allready translating to increase demand for hospitalcare will end in deaths going up....maybe not that extreme...20,000 deaths per day second half of january ? Depending on how many HCW-ers get infected...that number going up extreme...could increase deaths to 30,000 per day later on for some weeks ? Some calculations...10,000x365 days = 3,65 million...We had 1,941,827 december 31, 2020...we did see 5,447,821 deaths december 30, 2021...so we did see around 10,000 deaths per day on average in 2021...20,000x365=7,3 million...will we end this year-2022-with an "official" 12 million+ deaths ? We can stop it, should stop but fail to do so....hopium does not help, measures do ! We WILL see more, worse, variants spreading next to eachother...making the 12 million pandemic deaths "optimistic" ! Again, just making my mind up...not an expert ! End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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Since there is an overload of info-limited time-part 2 just some headlines; [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/12/articles/animals/other-animals/covid-in-animals-review-updated-part-7-cattle/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/12/articles/animals/other-animals/covid-in-animals-review-updated-part-7-cattle/ ...basic story...like with horses, pigs etc. finding out they can catch CoViD-variants will cost a lot of money...so lots of people not willing to do that much research on it... DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_coronavirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_coronavirus ; Bovine coronavirus (BCV[2] or BCoV[3]) is a coronavirus which is a member of the species Betacoronavirus 1.[4][5] The infecting virus is an enveloped, positive-sense, single-stranded RNA virus I believed some link it with the 1890 Russian "flu"...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2 ; SARS‑CoV‑2 is a virus of the species severe acute respiratory syndrome–related coronavirus (SARSr-CoV).[2] It is believed to have zoonotic origins and has close genetic similarity to bat coronaviruses, suggesting it emerged from a bat-borne virus.[9][17] Research is ongoing as to whether SARS‑CoV‑2 came directly from bats or indirectly through any intermediate hosts.[18] The virus shows little genetic diversity, indicating that the spillover event introducing SARS‑CoV‑2 to humans is likely to have occurred in late 2019.[19] and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Origin[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#Origin ; The most recent common ancestor (MRCA) of all coronaviruses is estimated to have existed as recently as 8000 BCE, although some models place the common ancestor as far back as 55 million years or more, implying long term coevolution with bat and avian species.[72] The most recent common ancestor of the alphacoronavirus line has been placed at about 2400 BCE, of the betacoronavirus line at 3300 BCE, of the gammacoronavirus line at 2800 BCE, and the deltacoronavirus line at about 3000 BCE. Bats and birds, as warm-blooded flying vertebrates, are an ideal natural reservoir for the coronavirus gene pool (with bats the reservoir for alphacoronaviruses and betacoronavirus – and birds the reservoir for gammacoronaviruses and deltacoronaviruses). The large number and global range of bat and avian species that host viruses have enabled extensive evolution and dissemination of coronaviruses.[73] - Unlike other betacoronaviruses, bovine coronavirus of the species Betacoronavirus 1 and subgenus Embecovirus is thought to have originated in rodents and not in bats.[74][83] In the 1790s, equine coronavirus diverged from the bovine coronavirus after a cross-species jump.[84] Later in the 1890s, human coronavirus OC43 diverged from bovine coronavirus after another cross-species spillover event.[85][84] It is speculated that the flu pandemic of 1890 may have been caused by this spillover event, and not by the influenza virus, because of the related timing, neurological symptoms, and unknown causative agent of the pandemic.[86] Besides causing respiratory infections, human coronavirus OC43 is also suspected of playing a role in neurological diseases.[87] In the 1950s, the human coronavirus OC43 began to diverge into its present genotypes.[88] Phylogenetically, mouse hepatitis virus (Murine coronavirus), which infects the mouse's liver and central nervous system,[89] is related to human coronavirus OC43 and bovine coronavirus. Human coronavirus HKU1, like the aforementioned viruses, also has its origins in rodents.[74] - The Wuhan strain has been identified as a new strain of Betacoronavirus from group 2B with approximately 70% genetic similarity to the SARS-CoV.[123] The virus has a 96% similarity to a bat coronavirus, so it is widely suspected to originate from bats as well.[124][125] DJ Corona-virus come in many different forms...Omicron may have some mouse-influences...that does not mean it would spread more easy into farmanimals...More detections of infections in (zoo) animals may be related to more testing of (zoo) animals...also US/Canada deer (limited economic value in old way of thinking) showing more of the "old-Wuhan wild type" infection/spread (but maybe not getting them very ill...). Pets would be group three of animals, ferrets are ideal for CoViD...mink-like...but cats and dogs-so far-seem not to show yet an increase of cases...no doubt Wormsandgermsblog will try to keep an eye on it...but it would also be major news... However it is a very serious risk ! Would effect food/dairy production...Birds see lots of bird-flu cases...record levels...a risk on its own, may increase the price of eggs, poultry etc...If CoViD-19 variants start spreading in birds we have a very worse situation... Extra monitoring would be welcome...public health should go for "economy".... [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/01/terrifying-arctic-greenhouse-gas-levels-continue.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/01/terrifying-arctic-greenhouse-gas-levels-continue.html Some climate scientists come up with calculations that extreme methane release could result in extreme temperature rise within a decade...I think their story makes a lot of sense...maybe some "positive feedbacks" offer some "hopium" ...(Greenland landice gliding into the North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean limiting ice-loss ?) [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-preliminary-study-findings-on-israel-s-fourth-dose-reveals-unimpressive-results-and-raises-questions-about-fourth-dose-programs[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-preliminary-study-findings-on-israel-s-fourth-dose-reveals-unimpressive-results-and-raises-questions-about-fourth-dose-programs and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/israel/israel-effects-of-4th-covid-booster-dose-are-good-but-not-good-enough/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/israel/israel-effects-of-4th-covid-booster-dose-are-good-but-not-good-enough/ DJ Earlier studies did warn there is a limit to effects of boostervaccines...at that time Omicron (etc.) was unknown yet...Basic story is booster vaccinations may limit risks...but effects are decreasing much faster...And with variants getting better in evading immunity I think we did reach the limits to what vaccines could offer us....You can NOT vaccinate yourself out of this pandemic...Vaccines may be a usefull tool...but we wasted the time offered by present vaccines...Maybe better vaccines could be of some use... [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/chinas-excellent-very-good-year.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/chinas-excellent-very-good-year.html ; Amidst global gloom, 2021 was the best year in modern Chinese history. Here’s what they accomplished:
DJ China is sticking to Zero-CoViD, at least has a long term strategy...but the costs of sticking to that strategy will go up....Omicron is a problem in China...keeping CoViD under control may turn China into even more a police-state. However, the west is not doing any better...In my opinion we may be doing even a lot worse ! New Zealand is one of the "lucky places", Western Australia was, maybe some other Islands may be able to limit pandemic damage...but with more variants better in spreading it is getting harder and harder... End of part 2 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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DJ-International background; Kazakhstan Some links with updates; [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/u-s-e-u-can-t-grab-ukraine-without-a-fight-so-they-re-overthrowing-government-of-kazakhstan[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/u-s-e-u-can-t-grab-ukraine-without-a-fight-so-they-re-overthrowing-government-of-kazakhstan [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/the-us-directed-rebellion-in-kazakhstan-may-well-strengthen-russia.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/the-us-directed-rebellion-in-kazakhstan-may-well-strengthen-russia.html [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sl7DP7p4yxs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sl7DP7p4yxs Alexander Mercouris [url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/kazakhstan.15484/page-5[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/kazakhstan.15484/page-5 [url]https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/01/06/steppe-on-fire-kazakhstan-color-revolution/[/url] or https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/01/06/steppe-on-fire-kazakhstan-color-revolution/ Pepe Escobar DJ The way protests are used/hijacked has lots of similarities with earlier (attempts of) regime change with US links (like in Myanmar, Syria, Libya, Belarus, Ukraine...but it goes back further. The social democratic elected government of Salvador Allende was ended via CIA supported protests ending september 11 1973 with pinochet taking over...murdering tens of thousends). I did not see any reaction from Kazahkstan eastern neighbour China...but Putin and Xi must be in talks/contact. [url]https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/01/06/steppe-on-fire-kazakhstan-color-revolution/[/url] or https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/01/06/steppe-on-fire-kazakhstan-color-revolution/ even going for reuters-news... [url]https://www.rt.com/russia/545219-kazakhstan-protests-nationalists-security/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/russia/545219-kazakhstan-protests-nationalists-security/ [url]https://southfront.org/in-videos-coordinated-chaos-in-qazaqstan/[/url] orhttps://southfront.org/in-videos-coordinated-chaos-in-qazaqstan/ Russia-Iran-China, Kazahkstan is in between them, do have good reasons to believe "the west" was involved. Most likely also countries in Africa, Latin America, other Asian countries (a.o. India) may see it that way. The world is slipping into a "very cold war"...Russia/China may go for putting military (installations) in Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua. Any chances for a global plan on climate change, this pandemic, etc. is gone... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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DJ, Just over a year ago "demonstrators" stormed government buildings...members of parliament had to escape...Those "demonstrators" were "bad"...the last few days "peacefull demonstrators" with iron bars, guns delivered from "unclear cars" storm government buildings...however these "demonstrators" looting and destroying are "good"...a.o. against mandatory vaccines but also against Russia... China is a dictatorship but Saudi Arabia is okay...with some cities having squares for beheadings..."part of culture"...The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is OWNED !!! by a 20,000+ "royal" family with the king having his own nuclear weapons available in Pakistan..."no problem" for "the west"...as long as we get the oil... Point is KSA now is talking with RIC...(Russia, Iran, China)...Since the US did become oil-producer #1 by fracking-needs to sell LPG-the Saudi royal family Aramco has to increase export to main energy consumer China...and China does no longer pay for energy in US$... So the US wants to save the US-petro-$, global dominance-also in weapons...but it-in fact-has lost the fight. The vaccine-war is just another aspect...this pandemic NOT the priority for most countries-that is why it only gets worse... Most of the non-western world is willing to see the Kazahkstan unrest-hijacking of real protest against real corruption, inequality, poverty for "other interests" as yet another UK/US regime-change operation. Western "media" see Yellow Vests in France as hoologans, the riots in NL, Germany during anti-vaccine demonstrations as "a mob"...but in countries doing deals with Russia, Iran, China this "civil unrest" is "fighting for democrazy"...please ! We are further drifting towards world-war three.... -Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table this pandemic again-second day-over 2,5 million new cases being reported...The WHO repeating Omicron is NOT !!!!! mild ! But a.o. Australia seeing a lot of Delta caces still...In a.o. Denmark BA.2 Omicron subvariant becoming dominant (with E484K and N501Y mutations...EeK and NellY...a worse subvariant). So a look at some countries/regions...numbers showing positive tests in countries often at test-capacity limits...the real numbers must be much higher... USA did see 751,512 cases yesterday, the day before 712,617...weekly trend +72% (last 7 days the US did see 4,271,209 people testing positive, the week before it was 2,477,365...so the last 14 days the US did see 6,748,574 positive test on a population of 334 million=2% !!!) Global positive cases at 2,510,903 if only 1% of them would need hospital care it would mean 25,000+ per day...global trend for cases +65%, deaths 7,134 reported -3%. A look at Africa-a bit further in Omicron (BA.1) cases still +5%, deaths +19%, South Africa cases -20%, deaths +37%...due to timing, christmas/new year, a delay in numbers... Since a lot of health-care-workers (HCW-ers) are getting ill themselves (often even do not have N95/FFP-2 or -3 masks) healthcare capacity is going down. Omicron was "like Delta" for children and old age...more recent data-again-indicating Omicron may not be that much "milder"...but still a lot of countries will restart schools-often without good ventilation (schools can not pay the energy bill...) and masks... "Good news" [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues no further new subvariants reported ! Of course H5N1 infecting-for the first time in Europe-a UK citizen-directly from a bird is alarming...One worry is does this person may be able to spread H5N1...the other-maybe even greater-worry is did H5N1 in birds get more infectious ? Will it become easier for H5N1 to spread outside birds-in cats, foxes etc ? Could it-directly or indirectly-become yet another pandemic ? Influence diseases/virusses ? "More good news (dr.j.c style)"is Spain is not reporting over 100,000+ new cases...in fact Spain is not reporting any cases...maybe simply unable to be reporting anything, counting cases... Still to give some indications; #1, USA reporting 751,512 new cases +72% 2,143 deaths +3% #2, France 261,481 +70%, deaths 204 +16% (I will try to get more info on B.1.640.2 and/or BA.2 ) #3, Italy 219,441 +114%, deaths 198 +19% #4, UK 179,756 +30%, deaths 231 +56% #5, India 117,100 +486% !!!!, deaths 302 +8% #6, Argentina 109,608 +135%, deaths 40 +44% #7, Australia 72,121 +261% , deaths 12 +42% #8, Turkey 68,413 +78%, deaths 156 (still) -4% #9, Germany 56,787 +36%, deaths 305 -10% #10, Brazil 44,218 +133%, deaths 171 -11% Global reported cases now over 300 million...last two weeks did see 13,794,773 cases last 7 days plus 8,339,176 (+65 as weekly trend) so over 22 million new cases reported just last 14 days...If 1% of that number 220,000+ needs hospital care-on top of decreasing capacity being overloaded-one needs to be "very optimistic" (let me be less polite-a total fool !!!) to not expect further social disruption... NL inflation now 6%+, extreme weather around the globe, "tensions increasing" with NATO moving east "to stop agression against NATO moving east"...liberating oil fields... On our way to a very major crisis-just in the first week of 2022... End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 2, A look at Flutrackers to begin with; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/934302-kazakhstan-was-set-to-restrict-unvaccinated-from-entering-their-banks-with-qr-code-system-changes-started-january-5th[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/934302-kazakhstan-was-set-to-restrict-unvaccinated-from-entering-their-banks-with-qr-code-system-changes-started-january-5th ; There are rumors about discriminatory lack of access to banks starting the revolution there. I didn't believe anything that crazy could happen anywhere, but this article said the government planned to do that. DJ Article from december 30-so before the uprising/unrest/protests...It could still mean people could get to outside ATM's without any QR-codes...but it goes a bit far...In Germany a lot of protests are linked to extreme right wing groups-most in former East Germany. How governments deal with demonstrations/vaccinations matters...in most countries non-mandatory vaccinations will still see 90%+ of the population getting vaccinated...maybe mandatory vaccines for some groups may be acceptable...but based on good info/discussion with trade unions etc. The very moderate NL trade unions are against mandatory vaccinations and a right for most employers to get that kind of medical info. So it would be wise to accept "good" an not push for "perfect" at all costs...Vaccines are medical interventions with risks...unclear how major those risks are...so do not push it ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/environmental-impact-on-disease/934301-tiniest-pollution-particles-pack-major-risk-childhood-asthma-poor-air-deaths-ignored-for-too-long-studies-say-1-8-million-%E2%80%98excess%E2%80%99-deaths-globally-in-2019[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/environmental-impact-on-disease/934301-tiniest-pollution-particles-pack-major-risk-childhood-asthma-poor-air-deaths-ignored-for-too-long-studies-say-1-8-million-%E2%80%98excess%E2%80%99-deaths-globally-in-2019 ; DJ What kind of numbers of early/avoidable global deaths do we think are acceptable ? Millions of people killed in traffic, at the work place, due to preventable diseases..."no problem"...for most politicians "some extra deaths due to living with endemic CoViD" also "no problem"...point is corona-virusses mutate that much...endemic=pandemic but just switching words... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934297-china-zhengzhou-suspends-the-opening-of-the-city%E2%80%99s-tourist-attractions-closes-libraries-cultural-centers-urban-study-rooms-more-due-to-covid-19-henan-province-january-7-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934297-china-zhengzhou-suspends-the-opening-of-the-city%E2%80%99s-tourist-attractions-closes-libraries-cultural-centers-urban-study-rooms-more-due-to-covid-19-henan-province-january-7-2022 ; Dahe.com News on January 7, the reporter learned from the 28th press conference of "Zhengzhou New Crown Pneumonia Epidemic Prevention and Control" that in order to further strengthen the current epidemic prevention and control work and effectively block the spread of the epidemic, Zhengzhou on the evening of the 5th The city issued Announcement No. 4, proposing the social management and control requirements of "six stricts and one guarantee", including regulations on the management of various public service places during the epidemic: DJ It must be getting harder for China to deal with Omicron China cases now -1% (last week 1,246, this week 1,231) China having Omicron cases in its borders... A look at [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics showing now 135 countries have detected Omicron (sub)variants...China 9, Taiwan may have 89 (to give an indication for the region...not to say Taiwan is/should be part of PRC/China), Hong Kong may have 102...the numbers tell more about sequencing capacity...a will to report them...China-cases is cases with (a certain level of) symptoms not just positive tests...We do not even have international agreement on definitions... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/seasonal-flu-2009-2013-1-2-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aa/brazil/934118-brazil-health-investigates-deaths-from-hemorrhage-of-patients-with-flu-syndrome-in-camet%C3%A1[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/seasonal-flu-2009-2013-1-2-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aa/brazil/934118-brazil-health-investigates-deaths-from-hemorrhage-of-patients-with-flu-syndrome-in-camet%C3%A1 ; Source: https://folhadecameta.com/mortes-pro...r-mais-festas/ DJ Can H3N2-CoViD co-infection create much worse disease ???? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/934303-eur-j-dent-is-there-a-link-between-covid-19-and-periodontal-disease-a-narrative-review[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/934303-eur-j-dent-is-there-a-link-between-covid-19-and-periodontal-disease-a-narrative-review ; Abstract DJ An oral problem could enable CoViD infection ? CoViD may worsen oral problems ? Put this [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934078-brazil-confirms-115-cases-of-flurone-that-hits-with-flu-and-covid-at-the-same-time-january-4-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934078-brazil-confirms-115-cases-of-flurone-that-hits-with-flu-and-covid-at-the-same-time-january-4-2022 in latest news...CoViD-Flu coinfection may be widespread in Latin America but simply no testing/sequencing capacity left...another unfolding disaster...(Even if there would not be any further news on B.1.640.2 possibly spreading in France, Italy etc. the global situation may-by now-be WORSE !!! then during the Spanish Flu ! Simply much more (human and non-human) hosts with very likely several CoViD-variants, Flu etc. spreading at high speed...while healthcare is out of capacity in many places.) [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/934091-new-bird-flu-has-higher-risk-of-spread-to-humans-animal-health-director[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/934091-new-bird-flu-has-higher-risk-of-spread-to-humans-animal-health-director ; Source: https://news.trust.org/item/20220105165331-o5di4 DJ Testing/sequencing is beyond capacity...we simply will miss a lot of "bird flu" in non-bird hosts...H5 variants itself going "wild" but also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/flutrackers-high-pathogenic-h5n1-h1n08-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-tracking-outbreaks-spread/745429-flutrackers-global-cumulative-h9n2-partial-case-list-1998-current?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/flutrackers-high-pathogenic-h5n1-h1n08-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-tracking-outbreaks-spread/745429-flutrackers-global-cumulative-h9n2-partial-case-list-1998-current?view=stream ; latest linking to [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/934085-china-h9n2-cases-in-guangdong-province-7-yr-old-male-female-nov-dec-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/934085-china-h9n2-cases-in-guangdong-province-7-yr-old-male-female-nov-dec-2021 DJ There is also a list for H5N6 [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/723926-flutrackers-h5n6-cumulative-case-list[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/723926-flutrackers-h5n6-cumulative-case-list ..... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934090-canada-is-flying-blind-with-omicron-as-covid-19-testing-drops-off-a-cliff[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934090-canada-is-flying-blind-with-omicron-as-covid-19-testing-drops-off-a-cliff ; Source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/omicr...s-po-1.6304195 DJ Very likely worldwide.. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/933598-southern-france-reports-of-new-variant-with-46-mutations?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/933598-southern-france-reports-of-new-variant-with-46-mutations?view=stream DJ-Flutrackers also trying to get a view... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-af/israel-aa/932822-israel-sees-alarming-leap-in-flu-cases-as-experts-warn-peak-is-ahead[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-af/israel-aa/932822-israel-sees-alarming-leap-in-flu-cases-as-experts-warn-peak-is-ahead ; Source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/nearly...alth-ministry/ DJ "Twindemic" may not even describe the situation...Delta is not gone completely, Omicron BA.2 is increasing...on top of that (and among others) all kinds of flu... End of the worst news I did find since the start of this pandemic...Flu may start increasing with schools soon to reopen while Omicron is spreading and mutating "like crazy"...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues NOT having news may indicate they are getting overrun as well... End of part 2 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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Part 3-a look at some news from twitter-out of an overload of info...at best some selection... [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; DJ- [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator/status/1479218140387201027/photo/2[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator/status/1479218140387201027/photo/2 Some "experts" making claims of "Omicron is mild" without enough data/info being available (due to christmas/new year). SA data is overrun...days behind...simply because of extreme numbers...lack of numbers does NOT indicate lack of cases or deaths ! Still some "experts" translated "no news" as "good news"....by now we have to get rid of this kind of "experts"..."hopium" does NOT help ! False info gives wrong strategies !!! U.S. COVID update: New cases set world record, number in hospital continues to rise - New cases: 763,878 - Average: 613,840 (+25,188) - States reporting: 47/50 - In hospital: 126,166 (+6,618) - In ICU: 21,707 (+497) - New deaths: 1,797 More data: https://newsnodes.com/us DJ US healthcare being overstretched...with most-most severe-cases in regions with low vaccinations. (There has been garbage relating most excess deaths to vaccines...simply incorrect when you look at statistics ! Both in US and Europe [url]https://innovationorigins.com/en/no-more-talk-just-maps-start-2022-off-on-a-high-note-with-this-fiery-new-years-covid-cartography/[/url] or https://innovationorigins.com/en/no-more-talk-just-maps-start-2022-off-on-a-high-note-with-this-fiery-new-years-covid-cartography/ most of the excess deaths are in places with LOW vaccinations ! Vaccines do give complications-people did/do also die from vaccines...most likely that [url]https://vaers.hhs.gov/[/url] or https://vaers.hhs.gov/ is "limited"...but still-for the US-may be "many" (some claim 20,000 vaccination deaths ? Being honest about risks is needed to get public trust. Would 20,000 people dying from vaccination be acceptable to save "hundreds of millions" cq "the economy" ? DJ-Point is vaccines only can buy time... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/israel-vaccine-passport-has-run-its-course-and-is-no-longer-relevant/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/israel-vaccine-passport-has-run-its-course-and-is-no-longer-relevant/ ; Israel must rethink its COVID-19 response strategy, a senior health expert said on Thursday, as infections explode nationwide ushered in by the highly transmissible Omicron variant. Prof. Ran Balicer, who heads the expert panel advising the government on the pandemic, believes since the Omicron variant can evade vaccine protection, the Green Pass — a document that allows Israelis who are vaccinated against COVID-19 or recovered from the disease access to public accommodations — has run its course and is no longer relevant. “Everyone should now proceed with caution, avoiding going to crowded places, including those requiring the Green Pass since they are dangerous at this time,” he said. “Places that require a Green Pass are no longer protected from Omicron infections, this has to be acknowledged and said sincerely.” Prof. Galia Rahav, head of the infectious disease department at Sheba Medical Center, Israel’s largest hospital, told Ynet that the Green Pass mandate is a “farce”. The certificate is issued to Israelis who are fully vaccinated against coronavirus or recovered from it within the last six months. “What meaning does it have anymore when we know that some 80% if not more of those who were confirmed to carry the virus are vaccinated?” said Prof. Rahav. “Sure, the vaccine is important and protects against serious illness, but I don’t know what is the point of this setup anymore.” DJ Vaccines do still offer (limited) protection against severe disease-but never did stop catching/spreading the virus that much that it could end this pandemic without also other NPI-restrictions...Vaccine-strategy worsened this pandemic, resulted in increase of vaccine/immunity evasion-selection ! (And still not learning much...) Christmas holiday mixing shifted the age distribution of Omicron cases to older age groups - see the top right of this plot. (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk) DJ Omicron had terrible timing...new-year/christmas family get-together... [url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam ; Japan...requests 3 prefectures enact measures to curb COVID Okinawa, Hiroshima, Yamaguchi all host U.S. military bases, which announced stricter infection controls at Japan's urging after on-base outbreaks..spilled into surrounding communities. DJ There are major global differences-cultural; masks not uncommon in East Asia but also political, public health a higher priority for "socialst-like" countries (Scandinavia, New Zealand, China, Vietnam, Cuba etc.). Freedom/market in US,UK, NL etc in fact killing millions of people ! If you are NOT willing to raise taxes for good public services it is the poor that pay the price, the rich only getting more rich (and at a cost most rich think as unacceptable...). Getting multiple reports @Delta is telling workers across work groups that they should come to work w/ symptoms even if someone in the household tested positive. And test positive workers should come to work after 5 days if the fever is below 100.9, even if still testing positive In so many ways airlines are mass-murderers... This last week was responsible for 20% of all of the NYC pediatric hospitalizations for the WHOLE pandemic! Omicron is NOT mild !!!! Lots of countries allready reporting Omicron in children may not be (much) better then Delta was-only spreading much faster ! South Africa reports 551 deaths today, all except 45 occurred before the last two days. Need to revisit premature claims of mild. And; https://twitter.com/tomtom_m/status/1479162755823415297/photo/1 or [url]https://twitter.com/tomtom_m/status/1479162755823415297/photo/1[/url] DJ-Jumping to conclusions you love to see is not science but wishfull thinking/dreaming...Delay in reporting cases is NOT "no cases"... Some other twitter; Boris Johnson gets funds for flat in exchange for looking at donor’s “great exhibition” idea. Lord Geidt turns blind eye to Johnson’s wrong-doing. Tory peer secretly involved in firm given £200m for PPE. And that’s just today. It’s not “sleaze” or “cronyism”. It’s corruption. - |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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Missed the last of part 3....mmmmmmmmmm DJ-Saturday january 8....we can learn a lot from last week... Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ; New global cases in the last 7 days 14,812,182, cases in the preceding 7 days 9,273,258 = +60%...over 24 million new cases the last two weeks... Deaths 42,379 last 7 days, 42,573 the week before = almost 85,000 reported CoViD deaths the last 2 weeks (-0,5% weekly trend). Total reported global cases 303,664,507...increase per day now 2,5 million+ something like 4% of the global population did catch CoViD ? Total number of reported & tested CoViD deaths now at 5,497,410 will go over the 5,5 million today. Some countries/regions; USA reporting 849,181 new cases-0,25% of the US population-testing positive yesterday...+64%...2,025 deaths +21% Omicron "milder" then Delta but still worse then all other variants...also killing a lot of unvaccinated people from all ages. Do vaccines have serious risks ? YES !!!! In a normal situation some of the used vaccines should NOT be used ! I think we may keep a better eye on what vaccines give the most serious complications and for who...(When I look in my family women get more healthissues after vaccination then men...). [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/israel/israel-effects-of-4th-covid-booster-dose-are-good-but-not-good-enough/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/israel/israel-effects-of-4th-covid-booster-dose-are-good-but-not-good-enough/ and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/finland/finland-suspends-vaccine-passports-triple-vaccination-is-not-a-guarantee-that-you-are-not-infected/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/finland/finland-suspends-vaccine-passports-triple-vaccination-is-not-a-guarantee-that-you-are-not-infected/ Vaccinated get&spread CoViD !!!! Vaccines still do limit serious complications...but-again-if the goal was (for some) to "use vaccines as way out of the pandemic" that strategy was a total disaster !!!! On an individual level most people may get better protection after vaccination...looking at how to get rid of this pandemic vaccines only can play a limited role...maybe misuse of vaccines-to "save the economy" only made matters worse. We now face CoviD variants better in evading (vaccine) immunity BECAUSE of mass vaccinations... I was hoping the extreme high numbers would go down somewhat...compensation for less reporting during christmas/new year...but numbers keep going up...test-capacity simply not large enough to deal with the numbers...a lot of-possibly-infected people no longer testing...because what is the point if "it is only mild" ? (You do not go for testing for a cold...). Schools reopening coming monday will increase further the numbers of people getting ill. Children, teenagers often NOT vaccinated. Do get&spread more disease... Brazil, Israel also reporting a lot of flu cases...very likely co-infections "flurona"....in Brazil possibly killing lots of people...Flu cases most likely will increase further as well... "Everyone will get Omicron" some experts claimed-so "better get a booster"...only boosters have limited use...are NOT the long term-and global-strategy needed...just again buying time...still CoViD will kill millions...Long CoViD is a major problem-also with Omicron. People get reinfected...so earlier CoViD infection may make you more vulnerable...then another round of variants reinfecting you...killing you slowly ! STOP THE SPREAD !!!! Worldwide lockdown for two months now ! A look at a few other countries; France reporting another 328,214 new cases +56%...193 deaths +15% UK 178,250 new cases +20%, 229 deaths +46% France population 65,5 million, UK has a population of 68,4 million...why is France-with more restrictions-seeing that much higher cases ? Omicron did stop B.1.640.2 variant but [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/394[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/394 AY.122 Delta seems to be increasing in France...BoJo&Co claiming UK did do "much better in boosters" but that does not explain number of positive tests...Does France test more then the UK does ? [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/uk-ons-1-3-million-long-covid-cases-in-britain-2-of-the-population/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/uk-ons-1-3-million-long-covid-cases-in-britain-2-of-the-population/ ...these numbers are unacceptable-you need to have restrictions ! India reporting 141,986 new cases, trend +520% 285 deaths +1% (India is very serious under reporting both cases and deaths...) Argentina 110,533 new cases, +130%, 42 deaths +61% In South(ern) Africa new Omicron cases are going down SA cases -15, deaths however +50%..Omicron "milder" ? We need more time to see if that claim is correct. Israel cases +266% even with "mega-boosters"...deaths going from 2 last week to 16 this week +700%...maybe some of them also had flu ? Philippines cases +1,028%, deaths still -18% but they will go up... Brazil cases +187%, deaths +13%...Portugal cases +52%, deaths +12%...Brazil is supposed to have a lot of "natural immunity" did see several CoViD waves, Portugal was doing very good with mass vaccinations... So-where are we now ? We are now moving into "the real pandemic" more in a historical sense...The "Spanish Flu" killed 2-5% of the global population. Since we do not stop the spread-maybe still based on phantasy of "natural herd immunity"-we very likely will see this pandemic getting worse...healthcare collapse...A realistic number for CoViD deaths would be somewhere between 20 and 40 million by now... "Pandemic deaths" includes people not dying from CoVid but not enough care in time; excess deaths going up. The "Russian Flu" of 1890 may have been a corona-virus...but it was limited (lots of cases near the railway...spread by train). Global population then was something like 1,5 billion...not much transport-so "CoViD-1890/Russian Flu" also had not much chance to spread.... SARS-1 was contained in time in 2003. Somehow the worl reacted much faster then...MERS is much harder to get... CoViD-19 is developing towards immunity escape...reinfecting over and over...maybe new vaccines/medication can help. Nasal spray vaccination looked promissing...but if it was a good idea why do we not see it more ? If Ivermectin would have-at least some-use...welcome ! We need ALL the tools that may limit spread and damage now ! We also need global cooperation but see NAto (after NApoleon, NAzi's a.o.) moving east. liberating Kazahkstan uranium, trying to incorporate Ukraine...crossing/ignoring ALL the red lines Putin tried to make clear... If the "west" wants war it can get war...Russia-Iran-China etc. may have had enough of western superiority...[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/remarks-on-exceptionalism.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/remarks-on-exceptionalism.html Myanmar was linking China with the Indian Ocean-unrest, Kazahkstan is vital for both Russia and China Eurasian trade...unrest, Ukraine western coup, civil war with neo-nazi's killing Russians...Syria, Iraq US and IS join forces...Brazil US sponsor bolsenaro, a self declared fascist... Somehow the west thinks it can appoint its own leaders in Venezuela, Belarus, Myanmar, Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, where not ? "Don't look up"...western "leaders" lead us into extinction...time for change ! End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 2, Flutrackers limited "new news" still [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/934403-china-government-reports-h5n6-case-in-huizhou-city-guangdong-province-female-43-yrs-january-7-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/934403-china-government-reports-h5n6-case-in-huizhou-city-guangdong-province-female-43-yrs-january-7-2022 maybe worth mentioning...; Source: https://news.sina.com.cn/c/2022-01-0...x8976566.shtml DJ Can people catch both H5N6 and CoViD ? Could that result in more severe disease...so far limited news on H3N2 + CoViD in Brazil, "flu and CoViD" in Israel...very likely limited numbers-so far-in many other places...Since testing/sequencing is overstretched however some of the CoViD-deaths could also test positive for (a) flu...but simply do not get that test...it could become a serious-global-problem. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/united-kingdom-and-northern-ireland/934254-uk-government-confirms-an-avian-flu-type-h5-human-case-january-6-2022?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/united-kingdom-and-northern-ireland/934254-uk-government-confirms-an-avian-flu-type-h5-human-case-january-6-2022?view=stream latest; Alan Gosling, man in Devon with bird flu, is isolating DJ; Sounds like H5N1 may not-yet-become another problem...still with this many birds catching (most) H5N1 other non-bird caces should be expected...H5N1 did increase in pandemic risk. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934429-cidrap-citing-rise-in-hospitalized-kids-cdc-chief-urges-increased-vaccination[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934429-cidrap-citing-rise-in-hospitalized-kids-cdc-chief-urges-increased-vaccination ; Today Rochelle Walenksy, MD, MPH, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), gave a media briefing on the COVID-19 pandemic, saying the country has the tools to keep schools open during the Omicron wave, but not enough eligible children are vaccinated. DJ, I do not have children in that age group...If I had I may NOT send them to school-try to find an alternative...would have to think twice about vaccinations...maybe see if I could help in better ventilation in the school...I would welcome a mix of study at home and maybe 1 or 2 days at school in a small group...with lots of good testing...but with Omicron ? Some children love to go to school, lots of social contacts...others hate schools, rather read books...children at a certain age deserve to have a say in it as well... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/934423-cidrap-flu-scan-us-flu-markers-climbing-more-h5n1-poultry-outbreaks[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/934423-cidrap-flu-scan-us-flu-markers-climbing-more-h5n1-poultry-outbreaks ; US flu activity continues steady rise DJ; Most likely flu-most of it H3N2-will increase after schools reopen and lots of people may also catch Omicron...not a good combination...H5N8 in Denmark...H5N1 all over the globe...simply not good ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934430-why-canada-is-shutting-down-during-omicron-while-the-u-s-stays-open-their-health-care-systems[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934430-why-canada-is-shutting-down-during-omicron-while-the-u-s-stays-open-their-health-care-systems ; As Omicron sweeps through North America, the U.S. and Canadian responses couldn’t be more different. U.S. states are largely open for business, while Canada’s biggest provinces are shutting down. DJ; US deaths per million 2,570, Canada 802 ! Cases per million US 181,061, Canada 64,903 "free market" healthcare is killing much more people ! Bloomberg also came-2019-with US, UK, NL best prepared for a pandemic propaganda....total nonsense ! "Free markets" go for profit - all to often profit only ! The idea of "public healthcare" goes back to the 19th century to end massive outbreaks..."free market" insanity destroyed public healtcare..one of the reasons why SARS-2 did get that much worse then SARS-1 did in 2003 ! "Neo-liberal conservatism" , free market corruption & greed is killing millions via this pandemic and climate change, "accidents" in traffic, workplace etc. The present dominant political dagma's may become worse then other "gogmatic political believes".... This pandemic is a political disaster ! Allowing variants to spread "for free" is insane ! Again..I am not neutral or objective, neither an expert...just making up my mind... End of part 2 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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DJ, part 3, twitter; [url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_B ; If you want to know who else are blocking the sharing of knowledge? The big publishers that scientists are making use of. Great read by . Science, ethics and morality, we need to have a few really tough conversations. - New video! Science publisher Elsevier is suing Sci-Hub for giving away PDFs of research papers for free. Who is morally "right" here? https://skepchick.org/2022/01/sci-hub-is-it-unethical-to-pirate-science/ DJ, Not only are vaccines for profit-in most of the world (Russia, China, Cuba going for other kind of profit) also "info" is for profit....even during this pandemic ! Communication is essential in a crisis...but "it is for profit"....even with lots of research being tax-funded. You and I have to pay twice ! First via tax and then for "news-for-profit-media", also a lot of medication. Big Pharma, is getting a lot of tax-money...crazy ! DJ Also discussing on this NL twitter the claim-for NL-"lockdown is not working" (by an "expert"!)...without that "mild NL lockdown" (doing a lot of damage to small bussinesses but supermarkets taking a part of their market share) NL cases would be even higher... Lots of countries in a sort of national tunnelvision...Omicron is exploding around the globe...not only in one country... [url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam (part retweets) ; Just heard a story from someone whose son is a waiter. Their son's coworker got a PCR result text mid-shift: positive. He'd felt ill and actually tested positive on rapid, but the job required PCR results. He still had to wait for manager approval, so worked thru the dinner rush. A Rhode Island hospital has a patient Covid-19 outbreak after it asked staff who had tested positive, but were asymptomatic, to come in due to a staffing shortage. DJ; From Delta Airlines to hospitals...workers testing positive still have to go to their job....Sometimes workers have no other options...no job=no income = no food....We are now two years in this pandemic, "economy first" is destroying the economy and killing millions ! California reports 103,606 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record for any U.S. state DJ With numbers this high...when you have to admit it is "out of control" ? Children (<18 year olds) with COVID-19 were 2.56X more likely to have diagnosis of diabetis >30 days after infection DJ, it is not "just a cold" ! DJ Hospitals are supposed to be safe...In many countries HCW-ers testing positive are forced to work...Here in NL there was a shortage of staff in healthcare before the pandemic started...Politics going for profit with spendingcuts for public services from police to healthcare, education...(teachers having to clean toilets in-old-schools, if there are no parents. willing to do so..) Did you know that Omicron is an estimated 51% more severe (risk of hospitalisation) than the original ‘wild type’ strain? Risk of hospitalisation with Omicron reduced 41% vs Delta. But Delta vs Alpha increased risk 52%. And Alpha vs wild type increased risk 62%. = Net +51% DJ...mild ?.....maybe we need more time before we can make realistic claims...if a lot of "mild" cases turn out with "long CoViD" it is a nightmare...If flu increases-with limited immunity because of hardly any flu last year-coinfection of "mild" Omicron and "flu" (H3N2 most cases) still can get nasty ! Due to dire staffing within my department I have worked 6 of the last 7 days. Not to mention my on-calls. That equates to 75hrs!!! Supposedly I am part time but it doesn’t feel that way. The NHS is not coping .Colleag ues off sick daily. We cannot sustain this!! Lots of HCW-ers "work till they drop" only to see failed politicians claiming "they did beat the virus"...See also [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/london-medical-laboratory-warns-that-abolishing-numerous-covid-testing-measures-is-a-grave-mistake-the-boris-johnson-government-is-clueless[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/london-medical-laboratory-warns-that-abolishing-numerous-covid-testing-measures-is-a-grave-mistake-the-boris-johnson-government-is-clueless Problem is that the next variant will be under strong selective pressure to escape both the WT (from vaccines) and the Omicron immunity. And it's far from certain it will even do it through antigenic drift alone. DJ, It simply is not very likely Omicron "will end this pandemic"...claims "if every one will get Omicron all will be immune" is simply ignoring what we did see this far... Friday report is now out. https://covidactuaries.org/2022/01/07/the-friday-report-issue-58/… I am struck that perception of a “mild” Covid situation is relative. In SA natural deaths were >30% higher than predicted in Dec. The last time weekly death rates in E&W were more than 30% above 2015-19 levels was in Jan 2021. - Good news: admissions for flu not quite as tiny as last year, but close. https://gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season DJ, A lot more info, limited time...end of part 3 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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DJ, I sometimes look back at "scenario's"...tried to find the "worst case scenario including major war"...but I did write a lot...Still [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/satellites-would-be-attacked-first-then-these-radar-stations-if-ww3-commences-next-week[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/satellites-would-be-attacked-first-then-these-radar-stations-if-ww3-commences-next-week I think Hal Turner (trump-supporter, extreme right wing but anti nazi...also very emotional) may have a point; Dec 16, 2021. Well, well, well. That's some magic Crystal Ball the US Embassy in Kazakhstan has. They issued travel warnings about demonstrations and mass riots three full weeks BEFORE there was even any sign of such things. Gee, I wonder how they could have known? Maybe because THEY THEMSLEVES were arranging all of it? ---- END INSERTED UPDATE OF 5:52 PM EST ------ DJ The US is trying to "control the globe"...US foreign policy is based on a view the US elite based on the US position after World War Two...but even the Korea war should have "balanced" the US view of "exceptionalism"... In my-limited-view NATO was the continuation of some nazi-goals in another form...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable ; Operation Unthinkable was the name given to two related possible future war plans by the British Chiefs of Staff against the Soviet Union in 1945. The plans were never approved nor implemented. The creation of the plans was ordered by British Prime Minister Winston Churchill in May 1945 and developed by the British Armed Forces' Joint Planning Staff in May 1945 at the end of World War II in Europe.[1] One plan assumed a surprise attack on the Soviet forces stationed in Germany to "impose the will of the Western Allies" on the Soviets. "The will" was qualified as "a square deal for Poland",[2] which probably meant enforcing the recently signed Yalta Agreement. The planners decided that without massive American help Britain would probably fail. The assessment, signed by the Chief of Army Staff on 9 June 1945, concluded: “It would be beyond our power to win a quick but limited success and we would be committed to a protracted war against heavy odds."[3] The code name was now reused instead for a second plan, which was a defensive scenario in which the British were to defend against a Soviet drive towards the North Sea and the Atlantic following the withdrawal of the American forces from the Continent. At no time was either plan shared with the United States or anyone else.[citation needed] When the Labour Party came to power in the 1945 general election it ignored the draft plan. The study became the first Cold War-era contingency plan for war with the Soviet Union.[4] Both plans were highly secret and were not made public until 1998[5] - although a British spy for the Soviets, Guy Burgess, had passed on some details at the time.[6] DJ "The West" did invest a lot in Russia prior to World War One...RussianRailways, Oil did see a lot of western money flowing into it...The Russion Revolution did cost some very rich people a lot of money...(Investors in US railways did also invest in Russian Railways, Shell-started oil exploration in the Dutch East Indies...became a major investor in a.o. Baku-oilfields...Royal families had a part of their wealth in Russia...so when the czar and his family were murdered they did not only lose familymembers but also a lot of investments). [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adolf_Hitler%27s_wealth_and_income[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adolf_Hitler%27s_wealth_and_income ; While hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic had crippled the German economy and plunged millions of German workers into unemployment, Hitler and his party received lavish donations from wealthy benefactors at home and abroad.[7] The iconic American car maker and anti-Semite Henry Ford was reported to be one of the foreign supporters.[7] Edwin and Helene Bechstein, part of a rich aristocratic family who sold pianos, supported Hitler financially.[7] The Ruhr steel barons Fritz Thyssen and Gustav Krupp donated almost five million Reichsmarks to the Nazi Party over the course of the war.[7] And [url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/sep/25/usa.secondworldwar[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/sep/25/usa.secondworldwar ; Rumours of a link between the US first family and the Nazi war machine have circulated for decades. Now the Guardian can reveal how repercussions of events that culminated in action under the Trading with the Enemy Act are still being felt by today's president George Bush's grandfather, the late US senator Prescott Bush, was a director and shareholder of companies that profited from their involvement with the financial backers of Nazi Germany. The Guardian has obtained confirmation from newly discovered files in the US National Archives that a firm of which Prescott Bush was a director was involved with the financial architects of Nazism. His business dealings, which continued until his company's assets were seized in 1942 under the Trading with the Enemy Act, has led more than 60 years later to a civil action for damages being brought in Germany against the Bush family by two former slave labourers at Auschwitz and to a hum of pre-election controversy. DJ After World War One hitler worked for French and UK intel to see how German veterans were thinking...The basis for hitlers rise to power was laid by the west...Lufthansa sponsored hitlers election campain by flying him all over Germany...Hitler was "man of the year" for Time in 1938... Basically; The West did not have any major problem with hitler till april 1940...invasion of Denmark, Norway...For the "western elite" Hitler was a puppet they believed to be able to control...main goal was Russia, by then the Soviet Union...Stalin did try to make an aliance with UK and France but was refused...so ending up making a deal with nazi-Germany...(the love-hate relationship between Germany and Russia is a long-interesting-story, Northstream I and II are just the latest part of it...) I could also mention western intervention in Russia after the 1917 november/october revolution (Russia had another calander back then)...US forces in Wladivostok, Japanes forces in Eastern Russia... Basic point is the West has been the agressor most of the time...including former Soviet member states in NATO goes against promisses made to Gorbachow in 1991... So-this pandemic is "out of control"...millions of cases per day...most not getting tested/reported...a lot of western countries facing not only a major healthcrisis but also hyperinflation, a housingcrisis, no public support for the "neo-liberal uncontrolled capitalism" any longer...so; Let start a war... War is a way of making money...only problem is corruption has been pushing up prices for (not only US, also UK, French) weapons, other countries now produce better weapons at lower prices... I think Hal Turner his story is incomplete...maybe to keep it short, not to complicated...but NATO is facing RIC; Russia Iran China and a lot of allies; Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, most likely by now also Pakistan while Turkey-still a NATO member-has better relations with Russia/Putin then with the US or EU... France may stay out of a US war with Russia (etc), BoJo allways wanted to be churchill-2....Most of Europe is not waiting for a war with Russia...needs Russian energy...US LNG from fracking is a lot more expensive and has to be paid for in US$ not in € (Euro's).. Russia, Iran, China would love to have better relations...the problem is in some western countries...If the only outcome of talks with "the west" is insults then Russia and China will go for other strategies.... This international background is important because; -You need major international cooperation when dealing with a pandemic...not a vaccine war (Russia is disappointed that SputnikV still is not accepted by the EMA...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Medicines_Agency[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Medicines_Agency now in Amsterdam, before Brexit in London) -This pandemic is that serious it should be the ONLY priority...for some countries this pandemic is not even a priority (maybe even "welcome" because some "politicians" think it will kill the old and weak...) global control of energy (via US-petro $) is.. -Wars are very expensive...the wars the west did start in Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, former Yugoslavia, Ukraine, Yemen etc. did cost that much it-in itself-is a cause of hyperinflation...(In money terms these wars may have cost the US and UK more then World War Two !!!!) the more money for wars the less money for public healthcare...one of the reasons why SARS-1 was stopped in 2003 and SARS-2 did "fly around the globe" several times... -China is fighting this pandemic still in China...so far exporting a lot of vaccines. PPE etc...also to the west...(we outsourced it !) A major war between US/UK (maybe a few other NATO members) and Russia and China is putting the world in a very major supply crisis... So-I think we are now in about the worst kind of scenario's I could think of allmost two years ago...Enough intelligent (wo)men will try to stop further escation towards a major war... A major problem is in US "politics"; democrats want war with Russia, republicans war with China...an election system giving unclear results (Did Al Gore win ?)..the US-elite believing they are above any international law [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Service-Members%27_Protection_Act[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Service-Members%27_Protection_Act ; The American Service-Members' Protection Act (ASPA authorizes the President of the United States to use "all means necessary and appropriate to bring about the release of any U.S. or allied personnel being detained or imprisoned by, on behalf of, or at the request of the International Criminal Court". This authorization has led the act to be nicknamed the "Hague Invasion Act".[4][5] The act prohibits federal, state and local governments and agencies (including courts and law enforcement agencies) from assisting the International Criminal Court (ICC). For example, it prohibits the extradition of any person from the U.S. to the ICC; it also prohibits the transfer of classified national security information and law enforcement information to the ICC. The act also prohibits U.S. military aid to countries that are party to the ICC. However, exceptions are allowed for aid to NATO members, major non-NATO allies, Taiwan, and countries that have entered into "Article 98 agreements", agreeing not to hand over U.S. nationals to the ICC. DJ This US law should have been totally unacceptable for any NL government ! In my opinion this law should have ENDED !!!! US-NL relations ! NL was the first state to recognize the US, when "the English" took over Nieuw Nederland, Nieuw Amsterdam and treated the Dutch living there as second class "jan-kees" they did lay the basis for the Dutch Republic as a basis for the early US republic...I think NL plays a very major role in early US history...in some ways even more then the UK did...(a.o. as a Kingdom !) End of a sunday-part 1... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 2, Numbers; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table even with less weekend testing/reporting from the US still "crazy numbers"; 2,234,231 new tested cases did get reported. (trend +51%, reported deaths 5,190 +1%)..If you are wondering if all of the cases are Omicron...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/deltacron-a-new-variant-that-combines-omicron-and-delta-discovered-in-cyprus/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/deltacron-a-new-variant-that-combines-omicron-and-delta-discovered-in-cyprus/ meet "Deltacron" ! Lets make a list of countries reporting over 100,000 new cases ! #1 US still rteporting 468,081 new cases +43%, "only"669 deaths, still weekly trend based on tested and reported cases/deaths is +22% #2 France, 303,669 cases +47%, 142 deaths +15% #3 Italy, 197,552 cases +57%, 184 deaths +34% #4 India, 159,632 cases +524% !!! deaths 327 -3% #5 UK "only" 146,390 cases +9% (so still increasing, not "leveling off" as some "experts" claim), 313 deaths +39% #6 Australia (!!!) reporting 115,,507 cases-must overstretch testing capacity ! +223% ! 25 deaths +40% #7 Argentina 101,689 cases +154%, 37 deaths +76% to make the list up to ten at #8 Turkey (+71%), #9 Brazil (+266%), #10 Germany (+55%) may soon get over a 100,000 cases per day...Lots of places will end breaks for christmas/new year...not only schools restarting tomorrow...but also lots of workplaces...grandparents watching over their grandchildren... To have a realistic view on Omicron one has to know how it works out in all age groups, how good protection via vaccines, masks, etc work...Claims "it is only mild" are much to early !!! South Africa cases now -11% but SA deaths +57% ! Lots of HCW-ers getting infected as well ! Other "non-sense" widespread by "hopium based media" is "Omicron will end this pandemic" ...why ???? Did we not learn a thing from the last two years ? Do we keep comparing CoViD-19 with "the flu" ? "Flurona"; co-infection of "flu" (often H3N2) with CoViD (often Omicron for now) may be allready a problem in Brazil, Israel...Another "flu" H5N1 is also "very widespread" so far most in birds...with some limited cases in animals that eat those birds...in humans-so far-very limited. Other flu-types H5N6, H9N2 could be more problematic...more cases allready-most in China. China may have its own Omicron variant spreading with [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/sinovac-vaccine-not-able-to-produce-adequate-antibodies-to-neutralise-omicron/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/sinovac-vaccine-not-able-to-produce-adequate-antibodies-to-neutralise-omicron/ ; The Covid-19 vaccine by Sinovac Biotech is not able to produce adequate antibodies to neutralise the highly mutated coronavirus strain Omicron, according to new research from the University of Hong Kong. Both the Sinovac vaccine and another by Pfizer-BioNTech produced “inadequate” antibody responses to the variant, scientists said in a statement Tuesday night. Of 25 people who received a full course of CoronaVac, none were found to have detectable levels of virus-fighting antibodies, according to study author and top infectious disease expert Yuen Kwok-yung and his team. DJ Still China cases going down in worldometer numbers; -21% last week 1,443 cases, last 7 days 1,140 cases. Tianjin-a city with 15 million population-getting tested in just ONE day !!! Tianjin is 50 kilometres from Bejing, had 20 positive tests, two of them "local Omicron"... By the way both DeltaCron and Chinese Omicron NOT yet in [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues still they report changes in AY.3-Delta in India, US and BA.1 most widespread Omicron in New York... Some expect Omicron will do on a global scale what it did in South(ern) Africa...go up fast-go down fast...ignoring; -BA.1 Omicron is mutating fast -BA.2 may be dominant a.o. in Denmark (cases -3%, deaths +32%) and India (cases +524%....) -Omicron is most likely just a few months old...we simply have not enough data...even ran out of testing capacity, forget about sequencing ! -IF Omicron did -in part-develop in mice-as somes studies indicate [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.14.472632v1.full[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.14.472632v1.full Omicron might be better in spreading in non-human hosts... And even if Omicron would be going fast "it is over-optimistic" NOT to expect any other variant increasing... STOP THE SPREAD !!! And we keep flying all kinds of variants around the globe-often only in vaccinated people-so increasing the immunity evading variants even further...Africa cases +6%, deaths +37%...as a reminder that "Omicron" at best only would be just somewhat milder then Delta...still a lot worse then Wuhan-wild type or Alpha/UK and we know what it did then...Omicron is "exponential" so lots/most of cases will not find the healthcare needed... Realism is needed to deal with any problem, "hopium, incorrect optimism, short term tunnel vision" only made matters worse ! The present "vaccine strategy" is a total disaster worsening this pandemic as well-with "fully vaccinated" people still spreading the variants.... So-"Outlook is not very good"... End of part 2 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 3, Flutrackers lots of info ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934552-why-health-experts-discourage-hacking-rapid-tests-with-throat-swabs[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934552-why-health-experts-discourage-hacking-rapid-tests-with-throat-swabs ; During an interview with The National earlier this week, another infectious disease expert, Dr. Zain Chagla, noted saliva could prevent a test kit from working properly. DJ-Good point ! However-if lots of people feel ill, nasal swabs does NOT detect anything-but oral/throat swabs do show a positive test-result people try to do the right thing ! Try to find out what is happening, if they pose a risk to others...An unwelcome step would be people testing negative on nasal swabs but with symptoms go out....How long does it take to learn throat swabs work good enough in wich tests ? How long does it take to get that kind of testing widespread when schools are reopening and Omicron may be missed often in nasal test because "Omicron is different"? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/934550-florida%E2%80%99s-covid-cases-and-hospitalizations-are-surging-but-the-state-has-the-second-lowest-death-rate-in-the-nation-what%E2%80%99s-going-on[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/934550-florida%E2%80%99s-covid-cases-and-hospitalizations-are-surging-but-the-state-has-the-second-lowest-death-rate-in-the-nation-what%E2%80%99s-going-on ; With COVID cases skyrocketing, Florida is experiencing one of the worst waves of the omicron variant in the United States. DJ; Some experts seem to be blind for the fact testing capacity has run out...still claim "cases are going down" when often testing is going down because testers are ill....People do not die from Omicron in a day...it takes weeks to see statistics giving a more correct picture... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934560-cyprus-finds-covid-19-infections-that-combine-delta-and-omicron-%E2%80%9Cdeltacron%E2%80%9D[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934560-cyprus-finds-covid-19-infections-that-combine-delta-and-omicron-%E2%80%9Cdeltacron%E2%80%9D DJ-Hope to find time for more info on New Variants...may be limited problem, overtaken by Omicron soon...still very early... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934559-china-tianjin-officials-imposing-a-graduated-covid-19-semi-lockdown-4-districts-today-and-the-rest-of-the-districts-tomorrow-12-january-9-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934559-china-tianjin-officials-imposing-a-graduated-covid-19-semi-lockdown-4-districts-today-and-the-rest-of-the-districts-tomorrow-12-january-9-2022 ; The National Health Commission reported that from 0 to 24:00 on January 8, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 92 new local confirmed cases (including 3 cases that were converted from asymptomatic infections to confirmed cases. All in Henan): - The Tianjin Municipal Party Committee and Municipal Government, the Municipal Leading Group for Epidemic Prevention and Control, and the Municipal Headquarters for Prevention and Control have decided to carry out nucleic acid testing for all employees in the city: DJ Did all 15/16 million residents get tested or just municipility workers ? January 8th, Tianjin detected two cases of positive COVID-19 nucleic acid test among the personnel willing to do the inspection and the active visits of the fever clinic. After comprehensive research and judgment by the city-level expert group, they were determined to be local confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia (light type). Is there a "China Omicron"-variant ? Or are the detected mutations (in students) similar to [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/395[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/395 detected in US, Japan...possibly Hawaii-link ? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/934152-we-can-t-vaccinate-the-planet-every-six-months-says-oxford-vaccine-scientist[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/934152-we-can-t-vaccinate-the-planet-every-six-months-says-oxford-vaccine-scientist ; https://www.9news.com.au/world/coron...1-b47c5d21eae9 We can't vaccinate the planet every six months,' says Oxford vaccine scientist By CNN 5:58am Jan 5, 2022 A leading expert who helped create the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine said Tuesday that giving everyone in the world booster shots multiple times a year is not feasible. "We can't vaccinate the planet every four to six months. It's not sustainable or affordable," Professor Andrew Pollard, the director of the Oxford Vaccine Group and head of the UK's Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, told the UK Telegraph in an interview published Tuesday. ... Meanwhile in the United States, it's too early to be discussing a potential fourth dose of coronavirus vaccine for most people, Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on December 24. "I think it's too premature to be talking about a fourth dose," Dr Fauci told Michael Wallace and Steve Scott of WCBS Newsradio 880... DJ It is also not effective...variants getting better and better in evading (this kind of) immunity...You can NOT end this pandemic with "only" boosters a.o. WHO is warning ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/seasonal-flu-2009-2013-1-2-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aa/brazil/931516-brazil-2021-seasonal-flu?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/seasonal-flu-2009-2013-1-2-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aa/brazil/931516-brazil-2021-seasonal-flu?view=stream latest; Source: https://www.brytfmonline.com/paraiba...s-ses-paraiba/ DJ Manaus no CoVid/H3N2 coinfections, Paraiba had 45 coinfections of Covid and flu (?...Omicron ?) [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/influenza-in-animals-excl-h5n1/923788-ca-2021-canine-influenza?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/influenza-in-animals-excl-h5n1/923788-ca-2021-canine-influenza?view=stream latest; Source: https://outbreaknewstoday.com/canine...-update-68890/ So is this "Canine Influenza Virus H3N2" related to human H3N2 flu ? From october 25-2021; The dog flu, or canine influenza, is an infectious respiratory disease caused by an Influenza virus, similar to viral strains that cause influenza in people. DJ; Could dogs with H3N2 (CIV) get more contagious for (sorts of) Omicron/CoViD ? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/934548-us-hospitals-struggle-to-match-walmart-pay-as-staff-flees-omicron[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/934548-us-hospitals-struggle-to-match-walmart-pay-as-staff-flees-omicron ; Nebraska has the lowest unemployment rate of any U.S. state, at 1.8% in November. In that environment, lots of employers struggle to find workers. But the stakes in health care are higher, especially in the COVID era. DJ...HCW-ers being paid less then supermarket jobs....related [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/934546-omicron-explosion-spurs-nationwide-breakdown-of-services[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/934546-omicron-explosion-spurs-nationwide-breakdown-of-services ; Source: https://apnews.com/article/coronavir...df4fc77488195a DJ Governments have to act-and act now ! There are essential jobs that need to go on to keep society running...Sticking to "market economy" could result in teachers, HCW-ers getting better pay in supermarkets...; blind ideology..."markets will save us"... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/934513-over-40-of-nyc%E2%80%99s-covid-infected-hospital-patients-admitted-for-other-reasons[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/934513-over-40-of-nyc%E2%80%99s-covid-infected-hospital-patients-admitted-for-other-reasons ; Source: https://nypost.com/2022/01/07/many-n...other-reasons/ DJ So if you break a leg-test positive for CoViD-the idea is you should not be in "CoViD-hospital statistics"? Even if CoViD would worsen ? Is this a number-game ? Some people downplaying risks ? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/934480-geert-s-new-year-message-what-s-next-in-2022-second-call-to-who[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/934480-geert-s-new-year-message-what-s-next-in-2022-second-call-to-who DJ-Geert van den Bossche-with all respect-is incorrect linking variants with vaccinations ! This far most variants showed up in countries with no (not yet) vaccinations...from Alpha in the UK prior to vaccines to variants in Brazil, Africa, Philippines with only limited (very) vaccines...Omicron-in part-possibly mice related ! However GvdB may have a point in that allowing vaccinated a lot of "freedoms" did increase immunity escape mutations... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream latest; President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government has said the country’s fourth Covid-19 wave has peaked.Total excess deaths attributed to Omicron are about 10,000, compared with about 110,000 excess deaths during the previous, Delta-driven wave. DJ; In part most vulnerables allready died before Omicron showed up...however SA deaths-trend still going up....+57%...last week 426, last 7 days 670...SA reporting 119 deaths just yesterday, 2 days ago that number was 140....maybe not yet in the "10,000 excess deaths attributed to Omicron"...it is to early !!! End of part 3...not because of lack of news from flutrackers-also reporting lots of H5 in birds most...but lack of time (and space). |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 4-twitter; [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator U.S. COVID update: Number in hospital at all-time high - New cases: 456,708 - Average: 706,331 (+29,771) - States reporting: 23/50 - In hospital: 135,292 (+4,246) - In ICU: 22,767 (+651) - New deaths: 605 - Average: 1,645 (+57) More data: https://newsnodes.com/us DJ And yes...a certain % will be in hospital "with" CoViD not "from" CoViD...but that % will vary with cases in general going up and down...all the time people get into hospitals "with" not "for/from" all kinds of diseases... Effectiveness of the Moderna vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta variants - 2X: 30% VE vs Infection 3X: 62.5% VE vs Infection [url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.07.22268919v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.07.22268919v1 ...Welcome news...but on the long term we do need other ways of dealing with this pandemic, in the short term only vaccines AND restrictions have some use... DJ [url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu ; Small update: the Cypriot 'Deltacron' sequences reported by several large media outlets look to be quite clearly contamination - they do not cluster on a phylogenetic tree and have a whole Artic primer sequencing amplicon of Omicron in an otherwise Delta backbone. So "Deltacron" is not real ? Maybe-however-coinfection with both Delta AND Omicron may be real-and serious...more info sure will show up... [url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam ; Meanwhile, in at least one facilty that's part of the largest healthcare system in NYS, they started rationing N95's a few days ago. Nurses working on a COVID unit have to go down to the supply room and are being given 1 at a time along with a paper bag. - There aren't shortages nationally. DJ Increased pressure on healthcare may not only give staff problems, also PPE, testing etc has limits. Let's stop misinformation about *for* and *with* When current hospitalizations go from a steady value under 500 /day to 6000 when Omicron arrives, then 5,500 of them are *for* Covid. When hospitalizations go from 40-60 per day to over 1,000 then 950 of them are *for* Covid. Wordgames becoming allmost criminal; "endemic or pandemic", "for or with" does not help anyone unless you want to ignore, downplay, the problem ! [url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma ; DJ See also [url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1479923564358868995/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1479923564358868995/photo/1 BA.2-Omicron getting dominant in Denmark ! “Effectiveness of 3 doses of COVID-19 vaccines against symptomatic COVID-19 and hospitalisation in adults aged 65 years and older” 2 doses of PFZ followed by a PFZ booster, VE was 65% at 2 to 4 weeks post the booster, dropping to 49% at 5 to 9 weeks and 31% at 10+ weeks “At 2w to 9w post the third dose, receiving 3 doses of a vaccine was associated with an 89% reduced risk of hospitalisation among symptomatic cases with the Omicron variant. This dropped slightly … at an 85% reduced risk of hospitalisation at 10+ weeks post receipt the 3rd dose” Link ; to @UKHSA pre-print here: https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/Effectiveness+of+3+doses+of+COVID-19+vaccines+against+symptomatic+COVID-19+and+hospitalisation+in+adults+aged+65+years+and+older.pdf/ab8f3558-1e16-465c-4b92-56334b6a832a… DJ End of part 4 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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DJ-Do I think this [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/only-hours-after-us-russia-preliminary-talks-news-goes-from-bad-to-worse-russia-says-may-deploy-intermediate-range-nukes-in-europe[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/only-hours-after-us-russia-preliminary-talks-news-goes-from-bad-to-worse-russia-says-may-deploy-intermediate-range-nukes-in-europe is related to As someone who trains scientists to speak to the media for a living, I can tell you that if your talking points sound like eugenics, your problem isn't media training, it's ethics. I think it is...The total mismanagement in this pandemic made this most of all a political disaster killing millions and now out of control....so start yet another war... -Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table see both weekend=less testing=lower (most US) numbers...and also may show testing capacity limits...A lot of people with "mild symptoms" will not seek testing...may be next to you in a bus, school, workplace if you have bad luck... Communication is a main tool in any crisis...but somehow was and is a total mess... Global 1,856,698 new cases did see reporting yesterday...sunday january 9...untill end of december highest number of cases in this pandemic was just over 903,000...april 2021-Delta in India-with both cases and deaths being under reported. Global cases +51%, deaths-yesterday "only" 3,464 +1%... January 27-2021 had 17,548 deaths...today is january 10-2022, schools, workplaces reopen....Omicron "milder then Delta" but it may be 2-12% "milder" and still worse then Alpha causing that high number of deaths allmost a year ago...vaccinations just starting...may make some difference. But today healthcare is a much worse shape then it was just a year ago....Omicron now also spreading in older age groups. DJ-If we are very, very lucky end of this month-february may see something in between 20,000 and 30,000 deaths per day... A look at a few countries and regions; Africa-very limited testing, but since testing has been poor all the time still may give some indications; Africa cases +6%, deaths +37%, South Africa cases -11%, deaths +57%...the claim "it is only mild" may have been made much to early-and for political reasons...yet another excuse for inaction... UK cases +9%, deaths +39%...the UK did see 921Covid deaths going up to 1,279 last 7 days. BoJo&Co claim high level of boosters will save lives...NHS at breaking point... One of many wrong idea's is that since in South Africa Omicron was a short-strong-wave it would work out the same way in the UK and other countries...Most European and North American countries-now in winter-have an older population. Disease-wise a different background...Also Omicron is now switching from the BA.1 subvariant to the BA.2 subvariant...CoViD is NOT flu-like in any way !!! Forget about herd-immunity, vaccines, "living with it"...CoViD maybe-on the longer term-5 to 10 times more deathly then the flu ? We simply miss good statistics in most countries... USA cases +43%, deaths +22%...the US had 4,5 million cases last week...moving towards 1 million cases+ per day... France cases +47%, deaths +15%....had 24,784 cases per million of population last week, UK had 17,789, USA 13,336...in other words 2,48% of the French population tested positive last week, 1,78% of the UK, US did see 1,33% of its population testing positive...as far as people did seek testing/could get tested....NL had 0,9% testing positive... The Philippines did see cases increase last week with 880%...Haïti with 811%, Gambia West Africa +649%, Guyana +544%...Guyana just north of the Brazil-state with a lot of mixing of H3N2-flu with most likely Omicron...Cyprus "Deltacron" cases +67%, deaths +60%...whatever "Deltacron" may be...it could be a virus with both Omicron and Delta...a new variant. It could be Delta with Omicron-elements, it could be people "just" catching both Omicron and Delta...it could also be "bad sequencing"....Denmark BA.2 now dominant cases -3%, deaths +32% to early to tell much... India would also have a lot of BA.2 cases there +524%, deaths -3%...in reality India cases per day most likely allready in the millions... Argentina is also "jumping out" did see 563,097 cases last week more then 50% of all of South America 1.099,357 cases last week. Argentina cases +154%, South America +167%...Argentina deaths last 7 days 284 +76%, South America +29%. Brazil cases +266%, deaths +23%...for that matter Israel cases +272%, deaths +650% (from 2 to 15 in real numbers)...both Israel and Brazil reporting H3N2 and CoViD (most likely Omicron) co-infections... Australia to finish this incomplete list...cases +223% over 100,000 per day now...deaths +40% (last week 65, this week 91)...comparing that with New Zealand cases +40%, 0 deaths Australia had 17,215 cases per million last 7 days New Zealand 96...differences going extreme ! End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 2 [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934560-cyprus-finds-covid-19-co-infections-that-combine-delta-and-omicron-%E2%80%9Cdeltacron%E2%80%9D[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934560-cyprus-finds-covid-19-co-infections-that-combine-delta-and-omicron-%E2%80%9Cdeltacron%E2%80%9D ; What Is 'Deltacron'? Scientist Says COVID Discovery Is New Strain DJ If it is-still-a coinfection of both Delta and Omicron-but not a new variant-ending up a lot of people in a more serious condition it still is major news...no doubt more to follow ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934579-china-henan-related-epidemic-has-spread-to-3-provinces-and-9-cities-current-round-of-yuzhou-epidemic-in-henan-province-and-zhengzhou-epidemic-virus-are-both-delta-strains-january-10-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934579-china-henan-related-epidemic-has-spread-to-3-provinces-and-9-cities-current-round-of-yuzhou-epidemic-in-henan-province-and-zhengzhou-epidemic-virus-are-both-delta-strains-january-10-2022 ; The current round of Yuzhou epidemic in Henan Province and Zhengzhou epidemic virus are both delta strains And [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934559-china-tianjin-officials-imposing-a-graduated-covid-19-semi-lockdown-4-districts-today-and-the-rest-of-the-districts-tomorrow-12-january-9-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934559-china-tianjin-officials-imposing-a-graduated-covid-19-semi-lockdown-4-districts-today-and-the-rest-of-the-districts-tomorrow-12-january-9-2022 updates; According to the latest news from the People's Daily, 21 new confirmed cases of local new coronary pneumonia (all in Jinnan District) will be added in Tianjin from 0-24:00 on January 9, 2022. 4 newly imported confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia from abroad. Two new cases of local asymptomatic infections were added, and five new cases of asymptomatic infections imported from abroad. Weibo screenshot As of January 9, Tianjin has reported a total of 172 confirmed cases of new coronavirus pneumonia, 145 discharged cases, 3 dead cases, and 24 hospitalized cases. DJ China reporting CoViD-deaths ! Dealing with both Delta and Omicron outbreaks...in worldometers no Chinese deaths, cases -21% from 1,443 to 1,140 last 7 days...??? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/934566-us-medical-expert-s-thread-on-family-member-s-covid-19-experience-probably-omicron-variant-january-8-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/934566-us-medical-expert-s-thread-on-family-member-s-covid-19-experience-probably-omicron-variant-january-8-2022 good info...Omicron is not a joke ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/913014-ontario-2021-covid-cases-record-high-hospitalizations?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/913014-ontario-2021-covid-cases-record-high-hospitalizations?view=stream latest; Last Updated Sunday, January 9, 2022 10:13AM EST DJ Canada had an early start with Omicron...The "it is only mild" non-sense did worsen this pandemic...words kill... Some other info; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics Omicron now in 147 countries...within 2 months spread around the globe ! Bolivia 1 case, Cape Verde may allready face 175 cases... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/deltacron-a-new-variant-that-combines-omicron-and-delta-discovered-in-cyprus/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/deltacron-a-new-variant-that-combines-omicron-and-delta-discovered-in-cyprus/ getting updates; UPDATE 4 – 9th January 2022 Speaking to local media, Kostrikis explained that the new variant, which has been dubbed Deltacron, shares the genetic background of the Delta variant along with some of the mutations of Omicron. “They do not know the results we have,” he told Sigmalive. He said that in addition to the initial 25 individuals found in Cyprus they had found another 52. And UPDATE 2 – 9th January 2022 DJ I think Cyprus is seeing more severe hospital cases with a virus-variant they did not see earlier...It may be Delta with a lot of Omicron ? [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/evolution/is-sars-cov-2-already-targeting-the-vaccinated/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/evolution/is-sars-cov-2-already-targeting-the-vaccinated/ In some countries 80-90% of the population is vaccinated...it is known vaccines does NOT stop getting infected that much...however it may slow down the spread somewhat; Will future variants of Sars-Cov-2 tailor themselves to target the vaccinated? Given that up to 90% of the population of some countries are now fully vaccinated, the question should perhaps be: Why would Sars-CoV-2 NOT target the vaccinated? Selective pressure on the virus may mean an increasing drift towards variants that can overcome vaccines, as we are already seeing with Omicron. There is some evidence in the scientific literature that the global vaccination campaign may have, through selective pressure, encouraged the virus to target the vaccinated. DJ Both "natural infection" and vaccines activate immunity...given lots of countries do report increase of re-infections-also in unvaccinated-variants may get better in evading immunity... I have to repeat it; STOP THE SPREAD !!!! Vaccinated-probably around the globe-do spread most of the variants long distance. Air travel made this SARS-2 a pandemic ! I think it is "unrealistic" to believe/think "Omicron will be the last variant"....so far strategies did simply fail...starting yet another war...US/UK plan-does not help... End of part 2 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 3, twitter, 1/6 Important new study from Japan finds that with Omicron, infectious viral loads peak 3-6 days after symptom onset/diagnosis. So many people are ending isolation & returning to work & school at peak infectiousness. Thanks, . h/t https://niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-n There's an alternative to putting your fingers in your ears and shouting La La La. 1. Acknowledge how it spreads. 2. Use simple measures to reduce spread. 3. Tighten or loosen measures as cases rise or fall. 4. Make buildings safe. 5. Vaccinate the world. DJ...I do like to copy the twitter-account as well...but "problematic"....link to [url]https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o1[/url] or https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o1 ; SARS-CoV-2 has infected more than 278 million people globally, with at least 5.4 million deaths recorded by the World Health Organisation as of 26 December 2021. The omicron (B.1.1.529) variant of concern is spreading rapidly.1 Some countries view infection as a net harm and pursue strategies ranging from suppression to elimination.2 They seek to sustain low infection rates through a combination of vaccination, public health measures, and financial support measures (vaccines-plus). Other countries implemented mitigation strategies that aim to prevent health systems from being overwhelmed by building population immunity through a combination of infection and vaccination. These countries rely on a vaccines-only approach and seem willing to tolerate high levels of infection provided their healthcare systems can cope. The high transmissibility and degree of immune escape by the delta and omicron variants means sustained protective population immunity is unlikely to be achieved with the current vaccines based on the original strain.3 Compared to delta, omicron is much more likely to infect those who were vaccinated or exposed to previous SARS-CoV-2 variants, suggesting significant immune escape.4 Widespread transmission brings a degree of unpredictability to the pandemic response. High transmission risks more rapid adaptation of SARS-CoV-2, with outcomes that include increased transmissibility (seen with α, delta, and omicron), increased antibody immune escape (β and omicron) or greater pathogenicity (delta and α).5 There are other drawbacks to a vaccines-only strategy. Countries which tolerated high transmission have seen rises in both covid-specific and all-cause mortality, healthcare worker shortages, and repeated lockdowns to control surges in case numbers.26789 Countries which suppressed transmission early saw reduced mortality and less economic damage.271011 Good description of strategies...how "saving the economy" is destroying it... 121S/ NETHERLANDS (Government ): Absurd advice on schools: - importance of ventilation unclear (AIRBORNE virus https://who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-how-is-it-transmitted…)
- Handwashing & disinfection MORE important (0 proven cases surface trans. https://cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/surface-transmission.html…) https://rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/co - Dutch Gov. : I have had to add you to #COVIDHallofShame for the WORST practices worldwide to stop the fastest transmitting AIRBORNE virus (https://who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-how-is-it-transmitted…) known to humankind. Surface trans. unimportant (https://cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/more/science-and-research/surface-transmission.html…)Here in NL reopening schools without clear rules-Omicron exploding-will further worsen the crisis. Bad decisions cost thousends of lives-even in NL... Look, let me be frank. My initial covid infection did not require hospitalisation. Ergo it was “mild”. However, I have never recovered. 2 years later & I am nowhere near who I once was. My body & brain have sustained long term damage. THAT is what Living With Covid looks like. CoViD is NOT a flu !!!! Also here in NL some "experts" claim long-CoViD is "mental"....There is no clear international definition on (sorts of) Long CoViD...but people ending up at ICU, still having nightmares of intubation also need care. Revealed: There was a 250k secret backlog in Covid PCR pillar 2 tests this week, affecting 4600 care homes and 70 prisons across the country, a leaked @UKHSA briefing shows: DJ See also [url]https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1480140689715433475/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1480140689715433475/photo/1 simply ignoring 250,000 tests and claiming "cases are leveling of" with even lots of cases not getting tested is worsening this pandemic. Again BoJo&Co lying and cheating...an insult for democracy ! A virus isn't endemic just cos a govt minister says it is and just cos people want it to be. The current pattern of waning vax, new immune evasive variants, and minimal public health response seem set to doom us to massive surges once or twice a year. 1\5 Also "learning to live with covid" would actually involve some learning. For instance creating safer environments through mass investment in clean air. Pretending covid is not a problem is not the same thing. Fraud-based politics is getting dominant in "neo-liberal run" countries...To get out of this pandemic means we need better government, an ideology that is taking public services more serious and not a 19th century view on society..."markets" solving all the problems if you simply create a lot of money out of thin air ! Interesting to see the narratives the Guardian is pushing. How can anyone describe a variant that's overwhelmed health services with >24 trusts having had to issue alerts, 1 in 10 NHS staff absent & people not able to get ambulances as a 'ray of light' Media did fail-again ! The idea of a free-press did not think of media being owned by conservative-party sponsors...Media-Experts-Politics becoming an "elite" is a major risk-on top of 0,1% owning half the planet-turning democracy into democrazy...! Having seen this article today - want to note that the UK actually passed this tragic point months ago. We're currently at 173,248 deaths reported by the ONS (with COVID-19 on death certificate). The least we can do is count these properly. https://bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59923936 DJ Worldometers still has UK 150,154 deaths.... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 3 got cut of.... because Media simply doing again a bad job ! Sources tell me there are now 62,150 staff absent from the NHS due to Covid reasons today - 120,003 absences in total - roughly 9% total. On NYE it was just under 50k staff off due to Covid. DJ Healthcare in crisis... A new Science analysis finds that by September 2021, India’s cumulative #COVID deaths were 6-7 times higher than reported. If confirmed, the findings may require substantial upward revision of the WHO's estimates of cumulative global COVID mortality. https://fcld.ly/xq0qlg3 I want to translate these numbers [url]https://twitter.com/ScienceMagazine/status/1479183535080722437/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/ScienceMagazine/status/1479183535080722437/photo/1 into Worldometer-number corrections/recalculations... If India reported worldometer number of 483,936 has to be x7 you end up at 3,387,552...global number of CoViD deaths would then be (3,3million - 483,936 + 5,507,320 =) 8,410, 936....If you would see the 5,5 million as only half the real number you allready end up at 11 million... it's hard to get a grasp of how catastrophic UK COVID response is.
UK has 5X Ontario population.
They had 150k deaths to our 10k - if they had our death rate, 100k people would still be alive.
100k - that's the whole of St.Helens, Bath, Rochdale, Chester. Dead. Preventable. "Peacecrimes" that may be why the UK, US want to start a war... Teachers returning to NSW schools are condemned to getting C19- it's a case of when, not if. Many will get Long C19 CSS have legal form letters for teachers- under WHS law they have a right to refuse to return to an unsafe workplace. Pls make use of them End of part 3b |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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DJ, International background; US/UK agression....[url]https://thesaker.is/who-lost-kazakhstan-and-to-whom/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/who-lost-kazakhstan-and-to-whom/ has good info on Putin his strategy...but also the mistakes "the west" and some "EurAsian leaders" make...Armenia, Belarus, Kazahkstan had a "double strategy" opening doors to the west while also good links with Russia...the "west" wanted more...So when yet another regime change war/operation started Armenia, Belarus, now Kazahjstan...but Syria once also was opening up to the west-under Assad-once a London eye-doctor...his older brother died so he ended up following his father in Syria...[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/the-russia-us-talks-in-geneva-are-likely-to-fail.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/the-russia-us-talks-in-geneva-are-likely-to-fail.html [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kK2LH1qRqqA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kK2LH1qRqqA Alexander Mercouris also lots of good info...in yesterdays video US sanctions on Russia would make energy prices (and inflation) explode...not very welcome for US elections in november...Pushing Russia out of SWIFT-banking would make European countries find other ways of getting Russian energy...Russia and China have an alternative for SWIFT...may become more important... After Crimea becoming Russian again EU sanctions did stop export of fruits to Russia...Russia did import those fruits from a.o. Turkey or grew their own...European fruit sector tried to increase trade with China... Russia will have talks with NATO, France and Germany will have their own talks in Moscow...Turkey/Erdogan needs Russian support... US LNG exports may increase somewhat with higher energy prices but inflation going up further is a high price that could cost democrats congress majority...In general most polls indicate NO support for more tensions over Ukraine... Russia has a point that as part of German reunification in 1989-1990 "the west" did declare NATO would not move east...The west keeps breaking all kinds of international agreements...is getting more and more isolated ! Again some "media" (like bbc, nos in NL) simply going for propaganda...terrible job ! -The above underlines this pandemic is NOT the international top priority it should be ! Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ..On a monday numbers reported reflect lowest sunday testing and reporting...still global numbers 2,141,968 trend +55%, 5,097 deaths trend +6%... Omicron may be a tiny bit milder then Delta, still worse then Alpha and spreading out of control...real numbers much higher ! Schools/jobs restarting, shopowners opening backdoor for customers to survive...Lots of countries would welcome an international crisis as distraction for complete faillure in this pandemic...Why the world was that much different in 2003 with SARS-1 ??? SARS-1 may have been a somewhat other virus, but public health was top-priority then...Governments reacted much faster and SARS-1 was limited. There are "phantasies/hopium" Omicron wave "may be short and fast" somehow-in this magical thinking-after Omicron this pandemic would be endemic...CoViD "can be treated like a (bad) flu"...BA.1 now is dominant, BA.2 subvariant of Omicron seems to be replacing BA.1 high speed... [url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma has been trying to follow Omicron...BA.2 may be dominant in Denmark, high spread in India, Philippines (most Manilla) so a look at those three countries to finish part 1; Denmark cases yesterday +13,473...Denmark has a population of 5,8 million so...it is a lot ! Trend for cases now at +24%, deaths +36%... India cases trend +470%, deaths "only still" +27% Phillippines cases exploding still +741%, deaths +89% BA.2-Omicron detected in more and more places...with schools, jobs&shops reopening outlook is very bad ! More restrictions now are urgent ! Allready healthcare but also many schools unable to function...lower paid HCW-ers getting "better" (in pay, risks, hours) jobs in "the market" with also a lot of HCW-ers getting ill or in quarantine... We need governments to do a job...it is political disfunction... End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 2 Berichten uit Brazilië en Uruguay over toename influenza. Dat is vreemd want op zuidelijk halfrond tijdens ons “griepseizoen”. Griepprik daar werd april gegeven en niet zoals hier in sept/okt. H/t DJ News a.o. from Brazil, Uruguay of increase of H3N2...flushots there in april...Not the normal time for flu there...DJ-Also Israel reporting co-infections of flu and (most) Omicron...with testing/sequencing overstretched (or even "gone"; UK had a backlog of over 250,000 cases..simply not reporting them) coinfection of CoViD and Flu may allready be a major problem in many places...testing only for CoViD may miss the flu-part... Also "Deltacron", unclear info...possable co-infection with both Delta AND Omicron needs good monitoring, testing, reporting...with also BA.2 Omicron increasing things are getting "very ugly very fast"... With BA.2 spreading high speed-replacing BA.1-Omicron subvariant and restrictions getting less effective global cases-maybe even at the end of this week could be over 5 million per day...most likely they allready are and testing/reporting is limited...However if now 30-35% of tests are "positive" for CoViD positivity rate may become 50%+ ...Same testing capacity resulting in further increase of tested cases... This pandemic had the potential of getting worse then the "Spanish Flu" of 1918-19 and may now be on its way to show it... A look at some numbers; Brazil cases +331%, deaths +34%...Uruguay cases +336%, deaths +38%, Chile cases +116%, deaths (still) -4%, Paraguay cases +164% deaths +20%. Argentina was not mentioned in the above twitter has been seeing "crazy numbers" now cases +155%, deaths +66%...when numbers are allready very high you may see increase in % getting smaller...but that may not be good enough...Argentina reporting last 7 days 659,870 cases-allmost 100,00 per day ! The 298 deaths last week also going up... Since Israel also did see a mix of Flu and Covid ; "Flurona" a look at Israel numbers, cases +276%, deaths however -23% (last week 10, the week before 13...so limited use for indications of how flu/CoViD-mix works out...) A look at some news & developments; [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false still limited BA.2 sequences-but going up fast with [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.1&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.1&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false BA.1 "leveling of/flatlined"... [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues three new developments there; -AY.89 may be part of AY.4 so could be included in that sub-lineage of Delta -Germany increase of Delta AY.43 from [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/399[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/399 ; Looking at the persistance of AY.43 in Germany i found this sublineage carrying the following substitution: DJ Underlining Omicron NOT getting rid of all Delta yet... -[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/397[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/397 ; While looking for survivors AY.s clades i met this one that recently reached 100% in Saint Vincent and Grenadine. DJ It is wishfull dreaming (not even thinking) that "Omicron" (not "mild" at all !!!) would "replace" Delta and "end this pandemic ! False optimism, ignoring science, "hopium" keep this pandemic getting worse ! We did see more then enough wordgames...but "learning the hard way" will see bodies piling up...It is simply to late to stop a mega disaster killing tens of millions ! [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-californian-study-shows-that-sars-cov-2-infections-can-be-controlled-by-inhibiting-human-host-sirt5--sirt5-inhibitors-as-potential-covid-19-d[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-californian-study-shows-that-sars-cov-2-infections-can-be-controlled-by-inhibiting-human-host-sirt5--sirt5-inhibitors-as-potential-covid-19-d ...if it worked it would be welcome ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/934689-cidrap-omicron-surge-sweeps-through-us-hospital-staff[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/934689-cidrap-omicron-surge-sweeps-through-us-hospital-staff ; As COVID-19 cases in the United States soar in the wake of the holidays, led by the highly transmissible Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant, nearly a quarter of hospitals are reporting critical staffing shortages due to workers being sick or off work for quarantine. - Regional COVID-19 variations On CBS "Face the Nation" yesterday, former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, MD, said Omicron activity has already peaked in some Mid Atlantic states, with Omicron now setting its sights on the Midwest, where the pace is picking up. The US 7-day average is now at more than 714,000 cases a day, up from about 410,000 cases a day a week ago, according to the Washington Post tracker. Also, 7-day average for deaths is nearly 1,600 a day, with new hospitalizations averaging almost 100,000 a day over the past week. The US COVID-19 total just topped 60 million cases, and more than 838,000 people have died from their infections, according to the Johns Hopkins online dashboard. As cases surge, efforts are under way to ease and extend vaccine protection through primary doses and boosters. Massachusetts, Illinois, and Oregon are among the states that are launching mass vaccination sites, according to the New York Times. At the federal level, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) yesterday updated its guidance for quarantine and isolation for the third time in 2 weeks. The update organizes the information into charts that make the steps easier to read and follow. Meanwhile, the US Postal Service is seeking a 120-day delay in complying with the Biden administration vaccine mandate for workers at large companies, according to NPR. The mandate was schedule to take effect today, but several states have challenged the measure, which is under review by the Supreme Court. International COVID headlines
DJ Worldometers has a little bit different numbers-but statistics give indications...HCW-ers doing a high risk job, now working lots of extra hours, pay often "not that good"...so if you want to keep HCW-ers at the job better improve workingconditions, pay etc. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934559-china-tianjin-officials-imposing-a-graduated-covid-19-semi-lockdown-4-districts-today-and-the-rest-of-the-districts-tomorrow-12-january-9-2022?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934559-china-tianjin-officials-imposing-a-graduated-covid-19-semi-lockdown-4-districts-today-and-the-rest-of-the-districts-tomorrow-12-january-9-2022?view=stream latest; If I'm reading this correctly, Anyang, China (population 5.2 million) has been put on lockdown. All non-essential businesses closed, no private vehicles allowed on roads, everyone told to stay home. Anyang is 1 of 2 Chinese cities w/confirmed Omicron cases DJ; China strategy in this pandemic is put to the test again. Worldometer still claiming China cases -20%, no new deaths...Chinese media mentioned 3 deaths...so delay in reporting cases going up ? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/supply-chain-issues/934688-a-growing-global-potato-shortage-is-affecting-french-fries-from-japan-to-kenya[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/supply-chain-issues/934688-a-growing-global-potato-shortage-is-affecting-french-fries-from-japan-to-kenya ; There’s a growing global potato shortage — a real problem for a planet addicted to french fries and chips. DJ Bird-flu effecting poultry...eggs getting more expensive as a basic ingredient, potato's, but also energy/transport-prices going up will further increase both inflation and poverty...with that social unrest. Related [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/supply-chain-issues/934658-china-s-covid-flare-ups-and-lockdowns-are-disrupting-port-and-chip-factory-operations-hitting-the-supply-chain-%E2%80%94-again[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/supply-chain-issues/934658-china-s-covid-flare-ups-and-lockdowns-are-disrupting-port-and-chip-factory-operations-hitting-the-supply-chain-%E2%80%94-again ; COVID-19 outbreaks in China come on the back of signs that the global supply chain crisis was easing. - Please see our China COVID-19 forum for recent outbreak data: https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/...20-may-31-2021 DJ; Since chips are in allmost everything-from cars to medical tools-further disruption there also creating more problems and inflation. "Just-in-time-delivery" means delay=stop of production chain... A look at India numbers to end part 2; India 915,529 cases last 7 days, will worsen further (trend +470%) so may effect production and export of pharmacy products and vaccines...Brazil over 250,000 new cases-going up...deaths in both countries also upward trend. South Africa cases -9%, deaths +47%...SA may see BA.2-Omicron cases going up again... End of part 2...I will leave twitter since linking it gives a lot of difficulties and I have limited time...maybe later on... Stay safe & sane...maybe remember people living in the 40's...trying to follow how the war was going...that did take often 5-6 years ! Work in progres |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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DJ A few updates; -[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/china-deploying-troops-into-kazakhstan[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/china-deploying-troops-into-kazakhstan Chinese Army protecting oil/gas-lines to China in Kazahkstan. [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/u-s-aircraft-put-on-full-ground-stop-after-north-korea-launches-hypersonic-missile[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/u-s-aircraft-put-on-full-ground-stop-after-north-korea-launches-hypersonic-missile -[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-hits-new-covid-case-record-for-7th-day-in-a-row-transmission-rate-passes-2/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-hits-new-covid-case-record-for-7th-day-in-a-row-transmission-rate-passes-2/ ;
Almost 5,000 additional cases were diagnosed on Tuesday by 9 a.m., the figures showed. The number of serious cases rose to 247, an increase of 25 from the previous day, and the death toll grew by two to 8,271. The total number of active COVID-19 cases stood at 185,753 on Tuesday morning. That number was around 15,000 two weeks ago. The test positivity rate stood at 11.38 percent on Tuesday. Experts believe many cases are now going undetected, as Israel has replaced the standard PCR testing with antigen tests, some of them at home, for vaccinated people under age 60, in order to prioritize PCRs for those at higher risk. Officials have said that Israel is dealing with both the faster-spreading Omicron and more dangerous Delta strains of the virus, and expressed fears that the health system could get overwhelmed with a rise in flu cases taking up room in hospitals as well. The virus transmission number, R, indicating how many people each infected person passes the virus on to, on average, rose to 2.05. The transmission rate is based on data from 10 days earlier and values above 1 show infections are spreading — the higher the number, the greater the rate. Prof. Eran Segal of the Weizmann Institute told the Kan public broadcaster that he estimates the true number of new cases to be around 100,000 per day in recent days, and that most cases are going undetected due to limited testing capabilities and a policy of reserving the most accurate PCR tests just for risk groups. He estimated the daily caseload will double again once or twice before the current wave will peak, adding that this could happen within two weeks. Regional Cooperation Minister Esawi Frej said Tuesday that the latest figures showed Israel was heading toward “herd immunity.” “According to the figures we have, 2-4 million people in the next three weeks are expected to test positive,” Frej told the Ynet news site. “This is the direction. Why should we bury our heads in the ground like an ostrich? The pandemic is reaching everyone.” Frej admitted that the government “is not able to do all the tests needed, we don’t have enough PCR tests, we have a problem with labs.” But he defended the government, saying it is making decisions “to do the maximum to protect public health” with vaccines and antiviral medications. The minister said a lockdown would do more damage than good, and called for adherence to the current guidelines: “The behavior of the public is more important than anything we do… everyone’s behavior is what will determine our direction.” DJ You hve to be a politician-or blind-to think "Omicron is good for herd immunity"....See also; [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-cancels-reservist-exercises-limits-combat-troops-leave-amid-omicron-outbreak/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-cancels-reservist-exercises-limits-combat-troops-leave-amid-omicron-outbreak/ DJ [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/great-news-south-korean-study-shows-that-sars-cov-2-is-literally-killing-the-microglia-cells-in-the-host-brain-hence-the-various-arising-neurological-[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/great-news-south-korean-study-shows-that-sars-cov-2-is-literally-killing-the-microglia-cells-in-the-host-brain-hence-the-various-arising-neurological- and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/more-great-news-stanford-yale-study-shows-even-mild-sars-cov-2-infection-can-cause-multi-lineage-cellular-dysregulation-and-myelin-loss-in-the-brain[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/more-great-news-stanford-yale-study-shows-even-mild-sars-cov-2-infection-can-cause-multi-lineage-cellular-dysregulation-and-myelin-loss-in-the-brain (DJ "Great News-More Great News-sarcasm NOT my taste-put it here for the info) long term damage even after mild infection....Politics "saving the economy'" by ruining the population... [url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma following BA.2 omicron increase worldwide...Japan cases exploding +920% last week 3,019 cases, last 7 days 30,796 cases) also linked to BA.2 most likely. I didn't see samples for this region on GISAID yet, but that sounds like a high % of BA.2 for Kolkata (Calcutta). 80%. And the numbers from India are growing very fast.
If I get this correctly 24/33, 14/17, 35/50 BA.2/total from 3 specific labs. *BA.2 is picked up by PCR!* Also massive spread in India... End of extra update...Politics going for it is endemic, live with it do worsen this crisis. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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DJ, Spanish PM; At the start of this pandemic 13% of tested died-now it is only 1%...so we have to deal with CoViD like a "sort of flu-like illness"... -Testing was much more limited at the start of this pandemic...As example 13% of 10,000 cases dying would be 1,300 deaths..only 1% dying of 100,000 cases still is 1,000 deaths.. -Most vulnerables did allready die earlier... -Virusses keep developing, mutating... Numbers ; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table In the update above this post Israel expert allready saying Israel could be at 100,000 cases per day...simply not enough testing capacity...Such a number would translate to 1% of Israel population getting infected per day...If you would translate such a number to the global just under 8 billion people you end up at around 80 million infections per day...Not the 2,809,570 new global cases (trend +49%) worldometers has to come up with...that is the reported number only... Deaths 8,232 for january 11-trend +9%... One of so many things going wrong is Media-Experts-Politics still going for "official numbers" ignoring lack of testing capacity...positivity rate often 30%+ (so at least 3 out of 10 people being tested test positive for CoViD), "advice" for at-home-testing often not showing up in statistics, tests getting more and more problems detecting the virus(particles). A look at trends for cases; Japan +916%, Philippines +650%, India +402%....BA.2 Omicron variant increasing/exploding...Israel cases +242%...with very good healthcare...mix of flu and CoViD ? Also reported in a.o. Brazil cases +343%... Death-trends; Philippines +132%, Canada +111%, Australia +110%, UK +83%, Spain +59%, Argentina +44%, Portugal +38%, USA, Denmark both +33%, Brazil +22%, South Africa +16%, France +9%, India +7%...a 100 countries reporting death-trends going up...34 countries 0% change...Israel, Finland cases -8% (Israel 13 deaths last week, 12 this week, Finland 73 last week 67 this week). Russia -10%, Thailand -17%, Belgium -20%, South Korea -23%, NL -38% (still), Sweden -57%, Norway -99%....New Zealand -100% (1 death last week, 0 this week...) Comparing two countries-two political directions; Australia cases +165%....22,938 cases per million last 7 days...deaths +110% from 69 to 145 this week...6 deaths per million... New Zealand cases -10%, 78 cases per million last 7 days...deaths -100% from 1 to 0....0 deaths per million.... You need an active government !!!! Not a group of people letting "the market do the job" out of a crazy political belief...We are on our way to 20/30,000 global deaths per day later on this month-going to 50,000 deaths per day later on-with lots of deaths simply not reported as CoViD deaths... Reopening unsafe schools, workplaces, a mix with flu, variants mixing up-one way or the other...Deltacron is a real possability-maybe for now NOT a new variant but as a coinfection of (a form of) Delta with (a form of) Omicron...BA.2 Omicron looks bad... Percentage of people getting reinfected going up high speed-earlier infection does NOT offer protection...WHO also warning present boosters not doing the right job...we need newer vaccines...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/400[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/400 ..."unclassified lineage".... STOP THE SPREAD !!!! WE SHOULD BE IN A GLOBAL LOCKDOWN !!!! [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/401[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/401 newer detections show up with lots more mutations...Delta not giving up but reacting on Omicron increases...Very likely scenario, BA.1 Omicron still increasing in many places-but BA.2 Omicron at its heels-will be a next wave-since Omicron is high speed-after that Delta new variants will take over again...we may not get much of a pause/break... Again- I am NOT an expert-would love to be very wrong ! Just trying to make sense of "the story"....I do now minimize my contacts-try NOT to get any form of CoViD...Very likely even the best experts have lost view on developments, this pandemic... Testing is gone bad...sequencing now only picking up very limited developments...those that are picked up show lots of mutations...Africa, South America, Asia may be full of surprises but also Europe, North America has no longer any idea of how this virus is developing... Basic rule is high spread=high level of mutations...variants did develop in poor urban area's with lots of people-high spread-so some mutations did get a chance to develop into a new variant... Since a lot of people did get infected this far in the pandemic-"natural immunity" may be more of a motor behind immunity escape then vaccines are... Politics trying to downplay the risks...go for a "crisis with Russia, China"..."bad Putin, bad Xi" story...total failure of western democracy...We deserve better ! End of part 1...time for a coffee ! [url]https://raakvlak.be/2021/08/26/grafkelder-olvkerkhofzuid3d/[/url] or https://raakvlak.be/2021/08/26/grafkelder-olvkerkhofzuid3d/ In the west of Belgium a 14th century grave-chamber was discovered...A 3D look... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 2, A look at news etc. but let me start with that I still think we may be able to get a "good grip" on this pandemic, since we run out of other options we will go that way. A global lockdown of two months, limiting air travel to 5-10% pre-pandemic for 3-5 years...could give a lot of room ! Somehow "politics" claiming it is more realistic and acceptable to see 5-10 million deaths extra as "living with the virus"..."endemic" while it is out of any control and getting worse, not mild...So-again-this pandemic is political ! [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/11/new-dutch-record-set-201500-coronavirus-cases-diagnosed-week[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/11/new-dutch-record-set-201500-coronavirus-cases-diagnosed-week One of the major challenges in countries facing elections is how to manipulate numbers and restrictions for the best results...We have local elections in march...Here in NL we now have a "pseudo lockdown"...coming friday PM rutte may say we need to accept it for another three-four weeks...so mid february "freedom-day"...I admit getting very cynical... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934863-covid-related-pupil-absences-in-england-reach-record-high-for-the-school-year-around-315-000-children[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934863-covid-related-pupil-absences-in-england-reach-record-high-for-the-school-year-around-315-000-children and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/ideas-on-how-to-protect-yourself-from-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov/social-distancing-what-does-that-mean/934862-from-europe-to-the-us-covid-cases-in-children-are-surging-schools-aren-t-prepared[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/ideas-on-how-to-protect-yourself-from-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov/social-distancing-what-does-that-mean/934862-from-europe-to-the-us-covid-cases-in-children-are-surging-schools-aren-t-prepared ... "Since not only the minister of health but even the PM/President is claiming schools are safe why children do get ill ? The virus has to show more respect for our elected leaders...after all we live in a democracy ! " It is sad to see this seems to be the way politics is dealing with this pandemic...Totally unable to see dangers..crazy... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/ideas-on-how-to-protect-yourself-from-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov/social-distancing-what-does-that-mean/934861-omicron-update-nyc-hundreds-of-brooklyn-tech-students-stage-walkout-over-covid-cases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/ideas-on-how-to-protect-yourself-from-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov/social-distancing-what-does-that-mean/934861-omicron-update-nyc-hundreds-of-brooklyn-tech-students-stage-walkout-over-covid-cases a "walk-out" may be wise...We deserve and need better-less corrupt-politics ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/934850-cidrap-who-experts-urge-exploring-updated-covid-19-vaccines[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/934850-cidrap-who-experts-urge-exploring-updated-covid-19-vaccines ; A World Health Organization (WHO) advisory group set up in September to examine the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on vaccine performance laid out a framework today for assessing updated versions of COVID-19 vaccines, and the experts urged manufacturers to gather and share data on how well current and variant-specific vaccines hold up. In other developments today, WHO officials in Europe warned that Omicron (B.1.1.529) activity is expanding eastward, carrying the biggest threats to countries with low vaccination levels. And South African researchers said Omicron spreads more easily from asymptomatic people, part of what's likely driving its exponential spread. Options for vaccine updates In a statement today, the WHO's COVID-19 vaccine composition advisory group said broader access to current vaccines is needed—to both primary doses and booster shots—to help curb the emergence and impact of new variants of concern. They added, however, that COVID-19 vaccines that prevent infection and transmission, alongside those that prevent severe illness and death, are needed and should be developed. The group also said that ideally vaccines should provide broad, strong, and durable protection to avoid the need for successive booster doses. Options include monovalent vaccines against circulating variants, multivalent vaccines against different variants, and a universal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine that would protect against all current and future variants. Until such vaccines are available, current vaccines may need to be updated to provide recommended protection levels against Omicron, as well as future variants, the group said. Europe's Omicron surge moving east At a briefing today, the head of the WHO's European regional office said Omicron is like a tidal wave moving from west to east on top of an earlier Delta variant surge. Hans Henri Kluge, MD, MPH, said Europe's cases doubled over the past 2 weeks, quickly becoming dominant in the region's western countries and now spreading in the Balkans. For example, France today said it expected to report another record high for cases, more than 350,000, and Swiss officials said today they expect Switzerland's cases to peak later this month. A forecast from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts that, at this rate, more than 50% of Europe's population will become infected with Omicron over the next 6 to 8 weeks. Death levels are still stable but are highest in countries with high COVID-19 activity but low vaccination levels, he said. Due to the unprecedented illness numbers, COVID-19 hospitalizations are rising, challenging and threatening to overwhelm health systems, Kluge said. "Once again, the greatest burden of responding to this pandemic is being carried by our health and care staff, and other essential frontline workers. They also carry the highest exposure to the virus." Robust asymptomatic Omicron spread Findings from two clinical trials in South Africa suggest that the Omicron variant is linked to a much higher rate of asymptomatic spread than earlier variants, which may help explain its rapid spread, even in populations that were hard hit in earlier COVID-19 surges. Both are preprint studies and not yet peer-reviewd. One that looked at the effectiveness of the Moderna vaccine in the first half of December found a 31% positivity rate, much higher than the 1% to 2.4% the researchers saw before Omicron. The other, part of the larger Sisonke study, examined people who had receive the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, finding an asymptomatic carriage rate of 16% during Omicron circulation, compared with 2.6% during outbreaks involving earlier variants. More global headlines
DJ and again you need vaccines AND restrictions ! Vaccinations to save the economy, open up, show to be a total disaster ! Of course you can ask lots of people if they want this pandemic to be over...only a fool would enjoy this crisis...but "wishing it was over" is not solving the problem... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/north-america-ab/north-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934830-haiti-faces-seasonal-flu-omicron-not-ruled-out[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/north-america-ab/north-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934830-haiti-faces-seasonal-flu-omicron-not-ruled-out DJ-No real test results or flu-type mentioned...still another warning flu may be increasing and mixing up with CoViD..but testing very limited. Haïti covid vaccination for only 1% of its people. Cases +839%...but this may mean they did get some more tests... In lots of countries we keep poor not only vaccines are missing, also a very serious shortage of good testing...If there is sequencing it may be in a rich country going more for its own interests...A recipy for disaster, lots of new variants going undetected for to long... So far-however-most likely also based on limited testing-Omicron is NOT yet exploding in non-human hosts ! I do think there may be some increases-a.o. in pets..Still we could be in an even worser scenario by now with lots of non-human hosts catching/spreading the virus-also back to humans... If CoViD would break that line-explode in non-human hosts-jumping back to humans-this crisis is "unmanageable" ...as long as most cases are in humans you may be able to control it...(of course CoViD in animals in the past did get all possable infected animals killed...). [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934579-china-henan-related-epidemic-has-spread-to-3-provinces-and-9-cities-current-round-of-yuzhou-epidemic-in-henan-province-and-zhengzhou-epidemic-virus-are-both-delta-strains-january-10-2022-anyang-on-semi-lockdown[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934579-china-henan-related-epidemic-has-spread-to-3-provinces-and-9-cities-current-round-of-yuzhou-epidemic-in-henan-province-and-zhengzhou-epidemic-virus-are-both-delta-strains-january-10-2022-anyang-on-semi-lockdown ; Original title: "Zhengzhou has accumulated a total of 770,000 tons of imported cold chain food, and the detected positive goods have been disposed of" DJ Chine keeps claiming frozen food can have CoViD-virus that may spread...Some claims (a.o. on twitter) China may be unable to get Omicron under control. China cases would still be going down -17% ...0 deaths...however the picture based on Chinese media is shifting. As "defense" China has mass-vaccination and mass-testing. Very clear NPI-strategy...still when one looks at how "Omicron subvariants" are "out of control" in many places China is facing a very hard time for its zero-CoViD strategy"...New Zealand may be one of a few countries able to "limit" this pandemic...in part of being remote and two major Islands... Some experts still stick to "herd immunity insanity" -if earlier experience with CoViD did see lots of "mild cases" for the short term still become "long CoVid" for the long term over 50% of a population catching CoViD/Omicron within 8 weeks could become a long-CoViD global disaster.... We NEED better strategies, better communication, better vaccines and tests on a global level ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/united-kingdom-and-northern-ireland/934254-uk-government-confirms-an-avian-flu-type-h5-human-case-january-6-2022?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/united-kingdom-and-northern-ireland/934254-uk-government-confirms-an-avian-flu-type-h5-human-case-january-6-2022?view=stream latest; Alan, 79, from Buckfastleigh has been told his latest test had come out negative and he is now free of the avian strain. However despite now testing negative, it is still unclear whether his 18-day isolation can come to an end. DJ, we may see more H5N1 in humans-with some luck it will stay very limited... End of part 2...If I can find time maybe a part 3 later on ! |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 3, most twitter; DJ [url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma trying to follow how Omicron BA.2 variant is increasing. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Sublineages_and_stealth_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Sublineages_and_stealth_variant ; Sublineages and stealth variantResearchers have established the existence of three sublineages of Omicron. The 'standard' sublineage is now referred to as BA.1 All three can be detected by full sequencing, but BA.2 has been nicknamed 'Stealth Omicron' because it differs from the 'standard' variety by not having the characteristic S gene target failure (SGTF)-causing deletion (Δ69-70) by which many PCR tests are able to detect a case as an Omicron, or Alpha, variant. Thus, countries that primarily rely on SGTF for detection may overlook BA.2.[41] Some countries, including Denmark, use a variant qPCR that tests for several mutations, including Δ69-70, E484K, L452R and N501Y.[42] It can also distinguish Delta (the heavily dominant variant worldwide, prior to the spread of Omicron), which has L452R but not N501Y,[43] and all Omicron sublineages, which have N501Y but not L452R.[44][45] As of 19 December 2021, BA.2 appears to be very rare with about twenty known cases from half a dozen countries.[40][45] The third sublineage, BA.3, is also very rare and it does not represent the same potential problem in detection since it has the SGTF deletion (Δ69-70), similar to BA.1.[40][46] May need to be updated, BA.2 dominant in Denmark, increasing in India and Philippines. [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=DNK[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=DNK has BA.2 as "just" 2% for Denmark over last 60 days...Omicron is dominant with no split up between BA.1 and BA.2 . Denmark cases +10%, deaths +33% some of the mutations "bad news"... Is BA.2 different? BA.2 share 32 mutations with BA.1, but it also has 28 (!) unique mutations. 28, That's a lot. it’s more than the defining in α,β,δ, and most of Δ main clades. DJ, naming BA.2 as another sub-variant of Omicron may give the wrong perspective...It may have been wiser to see it as yet another new variant since it has that many mutations. EXCESS DEATHS in South Africa are running at 130% of normal in the final 4 weeks of 2021–which translates to >10,000 excess deaths in just 4 weeks. Excess weekly deaths currently running ~3000 excess per week—SA has had large under-diagnosis like in previous waves. #Omicron DJ Claims "it is only mild" were based on delayed reporting of South Africa (excess) deaths....still lots of "experts" go on with "live with it", "Flu also can be bad", "dealing with the number of flu-deaths going double=no problem"... Of course lots of indications by now-with hospital cases going up in many countries-Omicron is NOT "a cold"...early indications also showing it is also more dethlier then the flu...And WHO has to accept yet another increase of risks ? It is not the rich-working from home in low risk, overpaid jobs ! It is the poor doing the high risk underpaid jobes that have to accept yet another increase of risks much more ! Good advice ! Risks for long-CoViD totally ignored...also BA.2 is different from now becoming global dominant BA.1 Omicron...BA.2 is worse ! Germany's Federal Minister of Health "If we had the same mortality rate as England, more than twice as many people would have died in Germany as sadly have." For him, the UK's Covid policies are an "unethical bet". Going for "live with it" is killing people ! "Herd immunity does NOT work...we have been in this crisis for almost two years now ! Covid is not endemic just as it wasn't the last 5 times people said it was. One day it might be, but we don't know on what timescale. So let's actually have a plan for how we deal with Covid - starting with safer environments to enable us to live as normally as possible. Wordgames-again-do not help... This is exactly it - schools with no mitigations with the majority of children unvaccinated when 1 in 15 to 20 are infected is going to result in this - mass educational disruption and huge impacts to children's health. 117,000 estimated to have long COVID by Nov 2021. Also children paying a high price...we now facing also a global pandemic of long-CoViD with some countries again denying the problem...leaving Long CoViD patients in poverty... We have data on the presence(0)/absence(1) of, independently, - A: E484K, - B: E484Q (old dataset only), - C: L452R, - D: a mix of multiple mutations [K417N or del69/70 or S371L-S373P (new) or Q493R (new) or N501Y (old)]; - and A0C0: combined absence of E484K & L452R4/12 -Anyway, so far at the national level, there's been a good agreement between results on the C (absence of L452R), A0C0 (abs of L452R-E484K), and D (presence of at least one of K417N or del69/70 or S371L-S373P or Q493R) columns6/12 (NB: mid-Dec, D was targeted on o suspicions) -
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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twitter and this forum does not mix well...while most of the news now is on twitter.... DJ-Trying to make up my mind on where we are in this pandemic, sharing my-non-expert-thoughts...feedback/reaction welcome...Also on this forum others see things in a different way-and have a right to do so...this is a "forum" a "market place" of opinions... As always-almost-I start with numbers...(Is the official English; Allways, Allmost double L ? difference between English-English and American English...?) Record high numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table for january 12 (worldometers reporting the reported cases from 00.00 to 00.00 hrs GMT/UK-time, I use worldometers because it is simple...I do not know "if it is the best"...Worldometers is putting all US overseas parts with the US-with a list for the US itself...OurWorldinData has a lot more info but I do not-always-use/need/want that much info...) Global reported/tested cases; 3,199,579 weekly trend +44%. Deaths as far as being tested/reported 8,392 trend +11%. Most of the new cases most likely due to "Omicron" a lot due to BA.1 but BA.2 subvariant is exploding...A lot of the deaths most likely still related to Delta...between testing and dying around 3 weeks (2 to 4 weeks) . Statistics only for indication-most indicating test capacity. NL increasing test-capacity to 200,000 per day, was 100-120,000 per day-some of testing staff was employed at booster-vaccination centers... A look at some countries regions; First a top 12.... 1 USA reporting 829,209 new cases trend +34%, 2,283 deaths +40% 2 France 361,719 cases-BA2 may be exploding there, trend +45%, 246 deaths +4% 3 India 247,417 BA2 trend +321% soon will be top of this list...380 deaths under reported, trend +7% 4 Italy 196,224 +33%, 313 deaths +37% 5 Spain 179,125 +8% 125 deaths +33% 6 Argentina 131,082 +108%, 75 deaths +38% 7 UK 129, 587 -19%, 398 deaths +44% 8 Australia 106,003 +135%, 49 deaths +123% 9 Brazil 88,464 +321%, 138 deaths +25% 10 Germany 80,542 +53%, 331 deaths -4% 11 Turkey 77,722 +51%, 145 deaths +3% 12 Israel 47,073 +210% (BA.2 ?) 16 deaths +79% What is this list showing ? Cases going up all around the globe. High speed increase on allready high numbers...Deaths still "limited". What do I expect ? We may end up at 5 million cases next week, could be the peak for BA.1...however BA.2 is more infectious then BA.1 different at 60 positions...in many ways another variant under the name Omicron...we may be lucky if deaths per day stays under 30,000 in the coming months. Africa cases -5%, deaths +27%. South Africa cases -24%, deaths still +21% SA had 763 deaths last 7 days, the week before it was 630. Most of those deaths linked to BA.1 Omicron. New Zealand cases +6%...they reported 92 cases yesterday, 1 death...the only death in the last two weeks, last 7 days New Zealand had 443 cases, the week before that 419 on a population of just over 5 million. NZ had 89 new cases per million last week, Australia had 24,538 cases, UK 15,034, US 16,543 per million. The US did see 12,367 deaths last week , UK 1,723, Germany 1,703 Portugal trends for cases +38%, deaths +41%. Portugal, Israel did do a lot of vaccinations... Russia and China missing in these lists...Russia claiming cases -9%, deaths -10% ??? End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 2 [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-urgent-russia-declares-nato-talks-failure-says-will-use-military-means[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-urgent-russia-declares-nato-talks-failure-says-will-use-military-means , [url]https://thesaker.is/after-kazakhstan-the-color-revolution-era-is-over/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/after-kazakhstan-the-color-revolution-era-is-over/ DJ-Since this pandemic is a global crisis it would be welcome if we had a global plan....UK is run by party-animal BoJo...in the US biden did NOT undo the damage trump has done in international affairs...the US still is OUT of the Iran-deal. There is no restart with INF/START [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate-Range_Nuclear_Forces_Treaty[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate-Range_Nuclear_Forces_Treaty NATO wants to move further east-include not only Sweden and Finland but also Ukraine and Georgia-former Soviet Union states...with "the west" claiming it is not on Russia...basically even to have an opinion about that... After the Ukraine regime change by the west other "change-operations" in Venezuela, Kazahkstan failed...The "west" was succesfull in Brazil-like in Ukraine-bringing a fascist in power...Public support for NATO moving east, support for fascists may not be "that widespread"... Since US republicans want war with China the US managed to compromise...now going for war with both Russia, China-and with Israel pressure-Iran... "World gone crazy" ? "Can't fix stupid" ? Here in NL [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/12/mayors-allow-shops-cafes-open-weekend-despite-lockdown[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/12/mayors-allow-shops-cafes-open-weekend-despite-lockdown with also [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/12/32100-coronavirus-infections-covid-hospital-total-11-week-low[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/12/32100-coronavirus-infections-covid-hospital-total-11-week-low ... NL had to go into lockdown because "our" booster campain started much to late...Belgium, Germany stayed open..borders were open. Yet another total faillure of politics....I do expect lots of countries going into long term lock down soon...to keep BA.2 and other, even worse variants under control... In many countries hospitals allready at breaking point, schools open to find out a lot of children, teachers do not show up. In the UK lots of people going for restrictions like they did a year ago...but "politics" claiming "freedom-day was a major succes"....Long-CoViD a pandemic on its own...with lots of people running into organ-faillure later on...the virus is still active all over the body. In many cases did severe damage...it is NOT mild ! It is NOT a respitory virus ! It does damage all over the body but gets in via the respitory system...but even this basic point-after two years-is missing in most communication.... Outlook for numbers, variants, vaccines, restrictions is "bad"...so "we will have to learn it the hard way"...bodies piling up. A short first look at "news"; [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/revaccination/ema-immune-system-could-be-overloaded-by-booster-vaccinations/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/revaccination/ema-immune-system-could-be-overloaded-by-booster-vaccinations/ ; The European Medicines Agency warned this week that repeated booster shots are not a sustainable long-term plan. The EMA pointed out that getting a booster every four months could potentially result in diminishing someone’s immune response. “We should be careful in not overloading the immune system with repeated immunization,” a spokesman said. DJ Must be some months ago I did see a study on boosters effectivity..if one booster could still do 100% protection, a second one would only provide 50%, a third 25%, a fourth 12,5% was the conclusion...Dealing with CoViD as if it is a "sort of flu" is simply misunderstanding this pandemic-going for the "easy way out" that simply does NOT work ! [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/the-next-lethal-variant-might-emerge-from-south-east-asia-as-who-and-the-west-are-paying-little-vigilance-in-this-region-indonesian-study-hints-possib[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/the-next-lethal-variant-might-emerge-from-south-east-asia-as-who-and-the-west-are-paying-little-vigilance-in-this-region-indonesian-study-hints-possib DJ They also had an article on AstraZeneca double dose not effective at all ! against Omicron....[url]https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1045619/Technical-Briefing-31-Dec-2021-Omicron_severity_update.pdf[/url] or https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1045619/Technical-Briefing-31-Dec-2021-Omicron_severity_update.pdf page 10; "Among those who had received 2 doses of AstraZeneca, there was no effect against Omicron from 20 weeks after the second dose. Among those who had received 2 doses of Pfizer or Moderna effectiveness dropped from around 65 to 70% down to around 10% by 20 weeks after the second dose. 2 to 4 weeks after a booster dose vaccine effectiveness ranged from around 65 to 75%, dropping to 55 to 70% at 5 to 9 weeks and 40 to 50% from 10+ weeks after the booster." The WHO does claim we need better, new vaccines and should use the "old ones" to at least increase protection in countries "we keep poor"...But we do not so next variants are on their way... I notice a cynical tone in a lot of twitter etc. What is the point of science if it only is ignored ? If all of reality-for politics-has turned into inconvenient truths they choose to ignore-living in a self-made pseudo-reality .... A car going high speed without a driver..."the car can drive by itself" ...a political "dogma" that "any government intervention is socialism and for that reason is wrong"....insanity. Public health, public housing, public transport, sewage are 19th century inventions but because of a "political liberalism" against anything "public" simply is thrown away...Since a lot of people still vote for this kind of politics-again repeating history...learning the hard way... We deserve better but for that may need to communicate better, think better, vote better ! Thailand-medical link to Indonesia study [url]https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1225245/v1[/url] or https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1225245/v1 ; ResultAnalyses were performed to investigate SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in Indonesia using data obtained from GISAID.org. A whole-genome sequencing was performed on the random samples taken from GISAID.org utilizing the BLAST tool from NCBI. The variants identified in Indonesia are Alpha, Beta and Delta variants, as well as local variants B.1.470 and B.1.466.2. As of the end of November, it was found that there are a total of 5.348 cases of the Delta, 78 cases of the Alpha, 22 cases of the Beta, 572 cases of the local variant B.1.470, and 1.833 cases of the local variant B.1.466.2. Other cases include 219 cases of local variant B.1.1.398, 160 cases of local variant B.1.459 and 1.028 cases of the wild type. In total there are 9.260 isolated genomes collected in GISAID that are located in Indonesia. Using BLAST, WGS of Alpha, Delta, Beta, B.1.470 and B.1.466.2 variants isolated in Indonesia was compared with the wild type from Wuhan NC.045512.2. It was found that multiple mutations have occurred in the samples. The mutations identified as are H69del, V70I, N501Y, D614G, A570D, P681H, T716I, S982A, and D1118H in the Alpha variant, T19R, L452R, T478K, D614G, and D950N in the Delta variant, D215G, D614G, A701V, L241-, L242-, K417N in the Beta variant, D614G, L242F, and S12F in the B.1.470 variant and D614G, N439K, and P681R in the B.1.466.2 variant. These mutations had caused alterations in the characteristics of the virus and how it may affect vaccine efficacy. ConclusionsThe results from whole-genome sequencing of variants isolated in Indonesia have found that multiple mutations have occurred in genes of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus and it caused alterations in the characteristics of the virus and may affect vaccine efficacy. It should be noted that classification from the GISAID website may change overtime. The result in this paper is based on the data taken at the end of November. DJ Indonesia has a mega-mix of variants....Thailand Medical News also mentions eating/living near bats in SE Asia...those bats may have up to 30 different corona-virusses...SARS-3 may be just around the corner. In some "media" the non-sense claim is "vaccines did cause variants"; simply NOT real ! Brazil, the Philippines, Peru, South Africa, Nigeria did see lots of variants-with no/hardly any vaccines around. However high level of vaccination may further increase immunity-escape. But also there "natural immunity after infection" is the main driver... Also on this forum some claim "immunity after infection is better then after vaccination"...simply also not true (however may be asking the wrong question...immunity after infection IS better against reinfection with the same variant...however that is NOT the long term pandemic problem !) ...lots of countries must have had widespread infections-by now several times-only to see yet another wave often infecting those at most "easy to get infected" positions... Looking at the past pandemics may have ended civilizations. The (West) Roman Empire may have ended-in part-because of diseases, corruption, unbalances... [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-sees-less-need-for-ventilators-shorter-hospitalization-times-with-omicron/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-sees-less-need-for-ventilators-shorter-hospitalization-times-with-omicron/ ;
The details, quoting Health Ministry and hospital officials, back up observations in other countries that Omicron has less of an effect on the lungs, compared to previous variants. Currently, in Israel, out of 257 serious cases, there are 64 people on ventilators and a further 12 on the ECMO machines used for treating some critical coronavirus patients. Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) machines do the work of a person’s heart and lungs in order to allow them to recover from serious respiratory illness. Unlike ventilators that just assist breathing, they provide cardiac and respiratory assistance by oxygenating a patient’s blood outside of the body and are used for only the most critically ill. Earlier this week, Prof. Zvi Fridlender of Hadassah Medical Center told the Times of Israel that there was a significant change in the behavior of the virus. DJ it is welcome news that less people end up in hospital/ICU -for now. Problem is both new Omicron variants and extreme high numbers will crush hospital/medical care... End of part 2 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 3-Flutrackers, just a basic selection. China; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/935084-china-14-people-infected-with-covid-19-in-shenzhen-many-in-same-community-guangdong-province-january-13-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/935084-china-14-people-infected-with-covid-19-in-shenzhen-many-in-same-community-guangdong-province-january-13-2022 , [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/935082-china-1-new-covid-19-case-in-zhongshan-restrictions-implemented-guangdong-province-january-13-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/935082-china-1-new-covid-19-case-in-zhongshan-restrictions-implemented-guangdong-province-january-13-2022 and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934579-china-henan-related-epidemic-has-spread-to-3-provinces-and-9-cities-current-round-of-yuzhou-epidemic-in-henan-province-and-zhengzhou-epidemic-virus-are-both-delta-strains-january-10-2022-anyang-on-semi-lockdown?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/934579-china-henan-related-epidemic-has-spread-to-3-provinces-and-9-cities-current-round-of-yuzhou-epidemic-in-henan-province-and-zhengzhou-epidemic-virus-are-both-delta-strains-january-10-2022-anyang-on-semi-lockdown?view=stream latest DJ China cases at worldometers info +0,6%...last 7 days 1,257 cases, the week before China did report 1,249 cases. There will be people looking at numbers in Chinese media to try to find out what reality is in China. Maybe China is able to still have some control ? In that way would be doing better then most other countries where this pandemic is "out of control". See [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/934978-anomalies-in-the-chinese-covid-data-%E2%80%93-evidence-of-manipulation[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/934978-anomalies-in-the-chinese-covid-data-%E2%80%93-evidence-of-manipulation ; Four Anomalies Related to China’s Covid count China has the will and means to go for massive testing, vaccinations, restrictions, surveilance (also with smart camera's picking out people with a fever... Do we have much choices in the long run ? Can we maintain certain freedoms in "free countries" and should we ? In my opinion good communications resulted in high level of vaccinations...Mandatory vaccinations may not increase the level of vaccine protection that much more...problem is vaccinated still spread the virus-booster vaccines-on their own-can not do the job needed. But a basis for other restrictions did erode due to two years of mismanagement. So-to put it simple-the "strategy" most countries now follow is "hope it gets mild", while pushing for "herd immunity" via vaccinations and/or infections creating a public disaster... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/935080-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bthe-highly-contagious-omicron-variant-will-find-just-about-everybody-january-12-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/935080-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8Bthe-highly-contagious-omicron-variant-will-find-just-about-everybody-january-12-2022 ; The Omicron variant of Covid-19 is "almost unstoppable" and everyone will eventually be infected with it, a top government expert told NDTV. Booster vaccine doses won't stop the rapid spread of the virus, he added. ''It makes no difference. The infection will occur. It has occurred all over the world regardless of this,'' he said about the booster doses. DJ; WRONG, BA.2 is NOT milder then Delta, natural immunity did not prevent lots of people being reinfected (several times sometimes...) but it may be-allmost-impossible to stop the spread. Maybe a lot of people will see Omicron-infection and not even know it...for now. There are many tools to STOP THE SPREAD but we do not use them... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream latest; WASHINGTON — The Omicron variant of the coronavirus is much less likely to cause hospitalization and death than the earlier Delta variant, a study released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention finds, confirming to a dramatic degree predictions some virologists have been making since the now dominant variant first appeared in Southern Africa. DJ Major problem-pandemic view-is in the extreme high numbers. BA.2 is increasing and worse. Times of Israel had if people needed hospitalcare for Omicron it would be-on average-5 days while on average for Delta it would be 10...Related; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/personal-family-professional-emergency-preparedness/934907-omicron-may-be-headed-for-a-rapid-drop-in-u-s-and-britain-may-already-be-running-out-of-people-to-infect[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/personal-family-professional-emergency-preparedness/934907-omicron-may-be-headed-for-a-rapid-drop-in-u-s-and-britain-may-already-be-running-out-of-people-to-infect ; Scientists are seeing signals that COVID-19′s alarming omicron wave may have peaked in Britain and is about to do the same in the U.S., at which point cases may start dropping off dramatically. DJ, Yes BA.1 may drop as fast as it did grow...however Delta still around, BA.2 increasing fast, other variants/recombinations very likely...Omicron will NOT be the end of this pandemic. False hope is NOT a strategy ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/934906-nature-striking-antibody-evasion-manifested-by-the-omicron-variant-of-sars-cov-2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/934906-nature-striking-antibody-evasion-manifested-by-the-omicron-variant-of-sars-cov-2 ; We found B.1.1.529 to be markedly resistant to neutralization by serum not only from convalescent patients, but also from individuals vaccinated with one of the four widely used COVID-19 vaccines. Even serum from persons vaccinated and boosted with mRNA-based vaccines exhibited substantially diminished neutralizing activity against B.1.1.529. By evaluating a panel of monoclonal antibodies to all known epitope clusters on the spike protein, we noted that the activity of 17 of the 19 antibodies tested were either abolished or impaired, including ones currently authorized or approved for use in patients. In addition, we also identified four new spike mutations (S371L, N440K, G446S, and Q493R) that confer greater antibody resistance to B.1.1.529. The Omicron variant presents a serious threat to many existing COVID-19 vaccines and therapies, compelling the development of new interventions that anticipate the evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2. DJ Link [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04388-0[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-04388-0 [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/935071-cidrap-global-study-notes-risk-factors-for-uncommon-severe-covid-19-in-kids[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/935071-cidrap-global-study-notes-risk-factors-for-uncommon-severe-covid-19-in-kids ;
DJ There are indications Omicron for (unvaccinated) children just as bad as Delta...also in older people-immunity waning-Omicron risks remain high. Omicron variants may just be reaching older age groups..."mild" in number of people dying from Omicron will go up-in part by reaching those more at risk, but also with care capacity going down. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/seasonal-flu-2009-2013-1-2-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aa/brazil/934118-brazil-health-investigates-deaths-from-hemorrhage-of-patients-with-flu-syndrome-in-camet%C3%A1?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/seasonal-flu-2009-2013-1-2-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aa/brazil/934118-brazil-health-investigates-deaths-from-hemorrhage-of-patients-with-flu-syndrome-in-camet%C3%A1?view=stream latest; Source: https://folhadecameta.com/doencas-e-...gas-de-cameta/ DJ A mix of diseases. Can it be earlier infection created less immunity in hosts giving room for more diseases ? [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/933598-southern-france-reports-of-new-variant-with-46-mutations?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/933598-southern-france-reports-of-new-variant-with-46-mutations?view=stream latest; Covid-19: B.1.640.2, better known as an “IHU variant”, is a “variant under surveillance” DJ, So B.1.640.2 may be overtaken by Omicron in France-still it may be spreading in Cameroon or other (West- or central) African countries. Related [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/929503-coronavirus-disease-african-region-who-africa-week-2-3-%E2%80%93-9-january-2022?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/929503-coronavirus-disease-african-region-who-africa-week-2-3-%E2%80%93-9-january-2022?view=stream latest; Around 130 million people are fully vaccinated, an approximate of [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/935069-cidrap-news-scan-deaths-averted-by-covid-vaccines-wearable-sars-cov-2-sensor-slow-global-flu-rise-bearded-dragon-salmonella[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/935069-cidrap-news-scan-deaths-averted-by-covid-vaccines-wearable-sars-cov-2-sensor-slow-global-flu-rise-bearded-dragon-salmonella ; Researchers develop wearable air sampler to detect COVID-19 exposure DJ Coinfection of CoViD and Flu (BA.2 + H3N2 even more) is "high risk"... end of part 3 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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DJ, This forum is giving me room for this scenario's now for allmost two years. It may be very hard to fit this kind of writing into any other forum. I want to take time-and space-to look at this pandemic from different corners, statistics, science, background-it is not a simple question...history allways is complex. This forum has seen more activity-and I hope it may see more activity again soon. Different kind of views and opinions make a forum into the marketplace it is supposed to be. No one has all the answers....This pandemic is new for experts. We are all learning. -Background; [url]https://thesaker.is/this-is-how-the-u-s-does-dialogue/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/this-is-how-the-u-s-does-dialogue/ ; Washington will not consider Russian proposals on no expansion of NATO, and has no intention of even discussing the idea. So much for “dialogue”. and [url]https://thesaker.is/https-smoothiex12-blogspot-com-2022-01-3m22-zircon-is-officially-accepted-for-html/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/https-smoothiex12-blogspot-com-2022-01-3m22-zircon-is-officially-accepted-for-html/ ; It is quite obvious: Russia will begin a policy of unilateral actions aimed at advancing vital Russian national interests. Many of those actions will turn up the pain dial for the US/EU/NATO. Rather than trying to guess what will happen next, I rather wait for those unilateral actions to become public. so [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/uh-oh-u-s-gov-t-now-talking-false-flag-by-russia-to-justify-invasion-likely-means-u-s-going-to-attack-and-call-it-false-flag-by-russia[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/uh-oh-u-s-gov-t-now-talking-false-flag-by-russia-to-justify-invasion-likely-means-u-s-going-to-attack-and-call-it-false-flag-by-russia and [url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/defcon-4-europe-crisis-january-2022.15474/page-10[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/defcon-4-europe-crisis-january-2022.15474/page-10 ... Party-lover Boris in the UK, Biden in the US a few other "leaders" want to start a world war about NATO "having a right" to move east...in the middle of a pandemic getting out of control...what a coincidence ! I am not an expert, not neutral or "objective" but why SARS-1 in 2003 did NOT become a pandemic and why SARS-2 in 2019/20 did become such a bad pandemic ? I do not know enough of the SARS-1 virus...but I do know there was a lot of action taken-by many countries and in time to stop the spread in 2003. Such actions came "to little to late" over and over again making this pandemic in potential even worse then the Spanish Flu.... This pandemic is-in a major part-the outcome of failing politics....starting a major war only underlines how bad the job is done by "our leaders". Ignoring history, the reasons for PUBLIC healtcare, PUBLIC housing, transport and even security of a police-going for privatize everything "liberalism" is the underlying factor pushing human kind towards the edge... -Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table giving some indications only; Reported global cases for january 13; 3,220,785 +40%, deaths 7,671 trend +11%...I am not going to make another list...in lots of regions cases going up, in many of them cases AND deaths going up, some countries allready cases going down but deaths going up indicating they get out of a peak-most now for the BA.1 subvariant of Omicron...some deaths still due to the Delta sub-variants also around in many places. Omicron BA.2 on the increase...has around 60 mutations different from the BA.1 form-for that matter allmost another variant. Very likely people that did get the BA.1 variant may see limited immunity against BA.2....Also the present vaccines/boosters do not offer enough protection to slow down the spread enough... Non Pharma Interventions (NPI) are becoming "difficult" when a lot of "media" come with "it is only mild" stories...so where are we ? In communication you have the one that sends a message and the one that is supposed to recieve that message; When you take 30 people that have to "send" a message from person to person the story from start to finish "mutates"...if it is a complex story in a foreign language you may not recognize much from the story that started this circle... Media, experts, politics (MEP) for allmost two years were sending a complex story the had difficulty to understand to "us" the public...To get a "grip" on that "story" (of this pandemic) "MEP" had to go for simplifications, a national view, balancing it with economy.... MEP itself allready was unable to get "a good story"....a pandemic is never " only national" , it allways will be complex and full of surprises. We did not have experts able to deal with this "big story" even with very good virologists, epidemiologists, communication experts.... The pandemic story is a very complex one in a "foreign language" nobody realy knew... Then the "us" part, the public. Let me be honest; a lot of people in countries keeping themselves rich are spoiled ! For most people on this planet todays work is this evenings food...most people never will catch an airplane and have the "freedom" to fly around the planet....Even clean water, a safe toilet may not be there for most of us.... This pandemic is the outcome of a proces-that also did cause the climate disaster that is unfolding right here right now....and most of "us" the global population did NOT cause these problems... I did read somewhere "80% of the flying done by 20% of the passengers"....Why is it "normal" to deny basic human rights (healthcare, clean water, education, housing) to so many ? Why should "we" accept yet another war to "defend" such inequality...where money=freedom to even destroy this planet....poverty means you will suffer for the "actions" of a rich elite ? This pandemic is the outcome of global inequality. We are doing this to ourselves...WE have to change ! End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 2, DJ-Testing and sequencing are needed to follow this pandemic-getting a view of what to expect. Limited testing capacity, at home testing and "it is only mild" -resulting in no testing at all results in an even worse virological view on this pandemic. We hardly knew what was happening in countries we keep poor...Africa, most of Asia, Latin America not only getting "limited vaccinations" but also limited testing and sequencing... Still China, India, EU, US managed to get "hundreds of millions" vaccinated wich saved hundreds of thousends of lives (but at a certain-not yet clear-costs; vaccines ARE medical interventions...some people suffer complications, some die from vaccines. We should not close our eyes for that). Testing capacity worldwide did get overstretched several times during this pandemic....for costs, financial reasons, test capacity was decreased in lots of places when "peaks were over", had to increase again when the next peak came...no long term plan. I would liked it if-when there was less demand for tests-more people could go for a test to see if they are a/mild-symptomatic...better use of test-capacity. Positive tests may end up for sequencing. Denmark did-I believe-test 50% of (positive) samples, UK also quite a high level-was it 5% ? Most countries hardly test 1% of positive samples. Why ????? Twitter has become the place for (some) experts to exchange findings and ideas...not that "studies" stopped but "studies are slow" while variants moved much faster.... The BA.2 variant of Omicron is increasing ([url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=DNK&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=DNK&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false showing detected numbers of BA.2 over last 60 days only showing a lot of them in Denmark...but NL, Germany, showing an increase...France, India may have even higher numbers...Germany must have several hundred of BA.2 cases, also increase in Amsterdam-rest of NL to follow...even a BA.3 variant). work in progres....I can not get access to twitter.....mmmmmmmm, change of plan...(is putting links to twitter(s) on this forum a problem for twitter ????). [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/seasonal-flu-2009-2013-1-2-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aa/brazil/931516-brazil-2021-seasonal-flu?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/seasonal-flu-2009-2013-1-2-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aa/brazil/931516-brazil-2021-seasonal-flu?view=stream latest; Source: https://correiodoestado.com.br/cidad...-do-sul/395401 - Paraná declares a state of H3N2 epidemic and reinforces the importance of vaccination DJ A flu-epidemic-H3N2- in parts of Brazil coinciding with Omicron cases exploding (cases +256%, deaths +25% for Brazil) is "bad news". It is summer in the south part of the globe. Flu-vaccines were given april 2021 in that part of the globe. (There are also reports of a.o. Yellow Fever, [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbovirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbovirus climate related...) Here in the north part of this planet flu-season is supposed to have started. So far however number of flu-cases seem to be limited. Brazil may see more then a "flu-corona=flurona" outbreak... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream latest; There is some, very tentative, evidence that it may be less clinically severe but it is doubtful that this will be enough to stop a flood of hospitalisation and probably deaths. Even if the hoped for drop in virulence significantly reduces the severity, on a case by case basis, the far higher case loads will negate that advantage. Looking at the graph there has not been enough time between the start of the current exponential case growth (the last 3 weeks) to see how that plays out in terms of the deaths due to the lag time of about two weeks for hospitalisations and a month for fatalities. DJ Omicron became a major point just over a month ago. The basis for "it is mild" claims were made based on how it did work out in South Africa...with a lot of delay in numbers of hospital cases and deaths. Also the Oslo-Norway outbreak may have been a factor-only those cases were in younger, healthy, vaccinated people....The "mild" claim also ignoring Delta has over 200 sub-variants, Omicron-with its extreme high spread-no doubt will also develop into lots of sub-variants-like the BA.2 now increasing. The next bit of useful data comes from https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....27.21268278v1 which basically shows that at least part of Omicron's fitness advantage comes from immune evasion but a booster vaccine dose helps reduce this. It, along with other data, shows Omicron has a shorter incubation period. Good advice ! Booster-protection most likely not as effective as first two vaccinations-specially in the more vulnerables. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/935133-china-chp-closely-monitors-five-human-cases-of-avian-influenza-a-h5n6-in-mainland-75-54-yr-old-males-in-sichuan-51-yr-old-female-in-zhejiang-53-28-yr-old-males-in-guangxi[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/935133-china-chp-closely-monitors-five-human-cases-of-avian-influenza-a-h5n6-in-mainland-75-54-yr-old-males-in-sichuan-51-yr-old-female-in-zhejiang-53-28-yr-old-males-in-guangxi ; Source: https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/...2011300628.htm CHP closely monitors five human cases of avian influenza A(H5N6) in Mainland ************************************************** ************* The Centre for Health Protection (CHP) of the Department of Health is today (January 13) closely monitoring five human cases of avian influenza A(H5N6) in the Mainland, and again urged the public to maintain strict personal, food and environmental hygiene both locally and during travel. Details of the cases are listed in the table below:
...Ends/Thursday, January 13, 2022 Issued at HKT 19:03 DJ-Another part of a growing flu-crisis. Lots of H5(most N1) in birds around the planet...This mixing with the present CoViD-pandemic (and a.o. African Swine Fever also still a major problem) may indicate a global major health crisis much wider then "just CoViD"....[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/723926-flutrackers-h5n6-cumulative-case-list[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/723926-flutrackers-h5n6-cumulative-case-list most-detected-cases in China...(but it most likely will be more widespread). [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/935088-world-j-mens-health-sars-cov-2-in-the-prostate-immunohistochemical-and-ultrastructural-studies[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/935088-world-j-mens-health-sars-cov-2-in-the-prostate-immunohistochemical-and-ultrastructural-studies ; While viruses from the coronavirus family have been established as causes of respiratory tract infections, SARS-CoV-2 has also been found in the heart, kidney, testes, and penis. This paper investigates whether SARS-CoV-2 can linger in the prostate by examining the histopathological, ultrastructural, and immunofluorescent elements of prostatic tissue from a patient who was infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus prior to having a holmium laser enucleation of the prostate (HoLEP) procedure. The findings of this case report suggest that COVID-19 has both the ability to enter prostatic tissue during an acute infection and persist over a timeframe beyond the initial infection period as RNA-containing viral bodies. This case report lays the foundation for future investigations to examine any histopathological changes to the prostatic tissue that may be associated with SARS-CoV-2 viral infection. DJ Men have more ACE-2 receptors-so the virus may be able to spread more over the male-body. If some organs may have virus persisting it is a further indication for CoViD being a LONG-term issue...not only a "short term" acute healthproblem. [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/14/sharp-increase-suicide-among-young-adults-last-year[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/14/sharp-increase-suicide-among-young-adults-last-year ; Those in the Netherlands in life threatening danger should immediately dial 112 for emergency services. Anyone suffering from depression or contemplating suicide may call 113 Zelfmoordpreventie at any time by dialing either 113 or 0800-0113. Counselors at De Luisterlijn may also be reached at 088-0767000, or volunteers may be reached at one of their local numbers. A list of suicide crisis hotlines outside the Netherlands is available on Wikipedia. The number of young people up to age 30 who took their own lives was 15 percent higher last year than 2020. The increase was most visible among young people between the ages of 20 and 30, NOS reported based on figures from the Current Dutch Suicide Registration Committee (CANS). The total number of suicides has been stable at around 1,800 for years. "But it increased among young people last year," Renske Gilissen, lead researcher at 113 Suicide Prevention and chairman of CANS, said to the broadcaster. Last year there were over 300 suicides in the 30 or younger age group. "An increase of 15 percent. Especially between the ages of 20 and 30, and often men." DJ Forums like this one could offer people room to share thoughts, ideas, questions....Climate change, war, pandemics are not "nice" but hiding does not help....honest talk, being open-having a safe place to go to are important ! End of part 2...trying to get access to twitter again...hope sharing info from twitter on this forum was not the problem... Stay safe & sane ! |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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part 3 -BA2 subvariant spreading...trying to get more info; [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/several-cases-of-omicron-sub-variant-ba2-detected-in-israel/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/several-cases-of-omicron-sub-variant-ba2-detected-in-israel/ ; The Health Ministry on Thursday announced several cases of a sub-variant of the Omicron strain of the coronavirus have been found in Israel. According to the Kan public broadcaster, at least 20 such cases have been identified in the country. BA2 has already been identified in several countries and carries additional mutations beyond those possessed by Omicron. It is not currently known whether BA2 is more dangerous than Omicron. “At this point, there is no evidence that indicates it behaves differently from Omicron. The Health Ministry will update the public on any relevant developments,” the ministry said in a statement. Meanwhile, the Omicron virus variant has raced across Israel over the past week, leaving the country with 259,223 active patients, 228,044 of whom were diagnosed over the past seven days — a rate three times higher than the previous week. The rampage has left 188,899 Israelis in quarantine due to exposure to an infected person, ministry figures showed Thursday. The number of patients seriously ill with COVID-19 has risen by 90 to 289, according to Health Ministry daily figures. Of the 882 patients hospitalized in Israel with COVID-19, 89 are considered critical and 72 are on ventilators. DJ When I look at worldometers Israel cases +207% on a weekly basis, deaths +80%....Comparing that to US cases +29%, deaths +24%, UK cases -24%, deaths +67% the high increase in Israeli cases jump out... [url]https://www.kan.org.il/item/?itemId=120402[/url] or https://www.kan.org.il/item/?itemId=120402 ; The BA2 is currently known to have even more mutations than the original Leumicron so some scientists around the world have speculated that it may be more violent. As stated, . the moment this is only a hypothesis, and it is important to note that there is no certainty about this. The subspecies was first seen in China a few weeks ago. The suspicion is that it originated in India. There it is called the "stealth strain", because PCR testing does not detect it in many cases, and is currently responsible for 80% of omicron morbidity in the city of Kolkata. The information was ascertained through special genetic flooring tests. It has also been located in Denmark, Australia, Canada, Singapore - and since last week also in Israel. Similar to the hypothesis of scientists around the world, scientists in the country have told news here that they are troubled by it because of its changes, and because of its greater mutations. Following the publication here in the news, the information headquarters for the fight against the corona virus announced that the BA2 strain is developing alongside the omicron and is being monitored by the Ministry of Health and other countries in the world. "At this stage there is no evidence that he is behaving differently from the Omicron. The Ministry of Health will update the public on any relevant developments," the Ministry of Health said in a statement. DJ (google translate -but from right to left sentences still) So what do we know of BA.2 ? [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Sublineages_and_stealth_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Sublineages_and_stealth_variant still in need of an update; BA.2 has been nicknamed 'Stealth Omicron' because it differs from the 'standard' variety by not having the characteristic S gene target failure (SGTF)-causing deletion (Δ69-70) by which many PCR tests are able to detect a case as an Omicron, or Alpha, variant. Thus, countries that primarily rely on SGTF for detection may overlook BA.2.[40] Some countries, including Denmark, use a variant qPCR that tests for several mutations, including Δ69-70, E484K, L452R and N501Y.[41] It can also distinguish Delta (the heavily dominant variant worldwide, prior to the spread of Omicron), which has L452R but not N501Y,[42] and all Omicron sublineages, which have N501Y but not L452R.[43][44] As of 19 December 2021, BA.2 appears to be very rare with about twenty known cases from half a dozen countries.[39][44] The third sublineage, BA.3, is also very rare and it does not represent the same potential problem in detection since it has the SGTF deletion (Δ69-70), similar to BA.1. It may be the dominant form of Omicron in Denmark yet [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=DNK&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=DNK&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false also not very much up to date... Denmark cases now +0,5%, deaths however +56%...India-also with high level of BA.2 increase has cases +250%, deaths still only +4%.... What is the difference between BA.1 and BA.2 ? [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/361[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/361 showing 84 differences.... [url]https://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/ba2-stealth-variant-kolkata-omicron-infections-559068.html[/url] or https://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/ba2-stealth-variant-kolkata-omicron-infections-559068.html ; Nearly 80% of COVID samples sent for genome-sequencing by labs in Kolkata have the BA.2 sub-lineage of the Omicron variant, nicknamed the 'stealth version', as per TNN. It is called so as it cannot be picked up in RT-PCR tests and only genome-sequencing can detect it. What is interesting is that nearly none of those found infected with BA.2 had any immediate history of foreign travel, said a senior health official. 150 or so positive samples have already been sequenced. DJ So did BA.2 start in India ???? [url]https://cov-lineages.org/lineage.html?lineage=B.1.1.529[/url] or https://cov-lineages.org/lineage.html?lineage=B.1.1.529 ;BA.2 Denmark 87% of cases, India 4%, Sweden 3%, UK, Singapore 1% (BA.3 =53% of South Africa cases, 27% UK cases, 7% Poland cases, 3% NL, Ireland.)...Sweden cases +31%, deaths -51%... linking subvariants of Omicron with statistics should also include timing. Did Denmark see cases "explode" earlier ? [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/ Denmark (DK) cases went up explosive end of december-now at a very high level. Last 7 days DK had 127,372 cases, the week before 126,800 on a population of 5,8 million. Last 7 days 21,872 cases per million. (UK had 13,981 cases per million, US 16,743...France however 31,408 cases per million...so what is spreading in France ???) [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=DNK&pango=BA.2&selected=BA.2[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=DNK&pango=BA.2&selected=BA.2 showing an explosion of BA.2 in DK last few weeks. [url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/scientific-brief-omicron-variant.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/scientific-brief-omicron-variant.html and many other healthcare instututions do not make (yet) a BA.2 page..."it is all Omicron"....well it most likely is not. A total of 84/89(94%) randomly selected SARS-CoV-2 positive samples, collected 12th Jan 2022 at testing facilities, were positive for a BA.1-like variant and 2/89(2%) for a BA.2-like variant based on the spike 371L/373P assay. Thanks to & . DJ Spread of BA.2 (also) travel related. NL cases now at +65%, deaths at -42%...so-with testing capacity increasing in NL to 200,000 test per day (and sometimes over 30% of tests positive) may we expect 60,000 "cases/positive tests" per day for NL soon... work in progres |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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ViQueen24
Adviser Group Joined: May 14 2013 Location: Verona, PA Status: Offline Points: 12270 |
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I thought of you when I read this, so Josh, this one's for you: The Virus Isn’t The Problem — It’s Us, and It’s Our Leadership We’ve lost the plot.  Jessica Wildfire Dec 30, 2021·7 min read  Adobe Stock They were going to fire me. It was my second job. I was 17. One week I came down with a cold. Obviously, I still went to school. I still went to track practice, because my coach said running would be good for me. “It’ll clear out your sinuses.” I believed him, and wound up running sprints for an hour. That weekend my symptoms got worse. By Sunday morning, all I wanted to do was sleep. I called the grocery store and asked if someone could cover my shift. The manager said no. So off I went. You can imagine the looks I got from customers. Later that night, my dad asked me how I was feeling. He told me about the first time he worked through a cold. A customer took pity on him, and bought him some medicine. He treated the experience like a rite of passage, something every American learns: Work ’til you drop. We’re letting people die. As a country, America has decided travel and shopping are more important than our health. We’ve just barely started to feel the consequences of this decision, even if it represents our true values. Here’s what ordinary people are sharing on Twitter: My daughter and I sat in the ER last week with her bleeding internally. We were there for ten hours before she was rushed to emergency surgery. The ER was packed with sick people. It was terrifying. A man came in clearly having a heart attack and was asked to sit in the waiting area… My stepmother who thought covid was a hoax died from it three weeks ago. Here’s what a doctor said: Life in the U.S. in Jan-Feb 2022 is going to be almost unrecognizable to most Americans… When we call 911 & no one comes… When we go to grocery stores & find the shelves empty, to pharmacies & find them closed because every single employee is out sick themselves or tending to a loved one… the idea that schools will manage to stay open in any meaningful way in Jan is a joke. Staffing issues alone will close them. Our leaders chose the economy over us. They forgot one thing: the economy isn’t just a bunch of numbers. It’s people. We’re the ones who make up the economy. If we’re too sick to work, if we’re bleeding to death in emergency waiting rooms, it’s going to have a negative impact on Wall Street, eventually. We keep saying it, because it needs to be heard. This is going to be America’s most painful lesson yet. Our leaders had plenty of opportunities and warnings to prepare for Omicron. They didn’t. It needs to sink in. We’re being conditioned to accept disaster. The other week, I wrote about how a storm system passed over my house and then laid down a super tornado that destroyed a town. Someone wrote this: It must be difficult when you think everything is a disaster. This attitude persists in America. It doesn’t matter if you’re talking about a literal disaster as it unfolds. Someone will always accuse you of “catastrophizing,” because it serves their ends. If nothing else, they get off on it. The people who complain about our “doomscrolling” and our “addiction to catastrophe” have their own agenda. They either have something to sell, or they want our cheap labor. They want us to make sure the schools and stores stay open, so they can continue profiting off us. This much should be clear now. We’ve literally seen supervisors tell employees to disregard tornado sirens, to keep delivering packages and making candles. We’re expendable. The media is selling a fiction. On December 15, TIME Magazine published this: “Let’s Not Be Fatalistic About Omicron. We Know How to Fight It.” On December 28, The New York Times published this: “Omicron Is Not More Severe for Children Despite Rising Hospitalizations.” Scroll the headlines of major news media, and you’ll see similar stories, all factually accurate in a technical sense, but with heavy spin. They bury the real story. For example, they casually dismiss the low vaccination numbers among children, and barely mention that kids under five still can’t get vaccinated. They say things like “we know how to fight Covid.” Here’s the real story: We do know how to fight Omicron, but we’re not. We’re letting it win. Everywhere you look, people are going about their lives without masks, without testing when they show symptoms, without taking any precautions for their friends and family. The vast majority of Americans are still operating under dangerous, outdated information about how Omicron spreads. The media keeps selling the story that we should accept the oncoming tidal wave of infections as normal, and prepare to catch Covid ourselves. As a country, we’ve largely abandoned the idea of trying to protect anyone. Here’s the sad part: This is how America usually runs. It’s what “back to normal” feels like, working when we’re sick, not caring about our health or who we infect, and waiting until we’re about to drop dead until finally dragging ourselves to a doctor, and expecting them to work magic. This won’t end well. The CDC knows exactly what they’re doing. The CDC is making it easier for bosses to compel their employees back to work with guidelines that now allow someone to return “if their symptoms are resolving (without fever)” which is vague and confusing. It feels like that’s part of the point—to create ambiguity. They’re cherry-picking science now, in order to justify a “return to normal,” at a time when nothing is normal except our country’s broad desire for profits and cheap consumer goods. This isn’t just my opinion. A range of epidemiologists have blasted the CDC this week for its decision. Even the former Surgeon General, Jerome Adams, says he’s lost respect for the institution. It doesn’t just look like they’re bowing to corporate interests. They are, and barely hiding it. Here’s what he said: I love the CDC… I never dreamed the day would come when I would advise people not to follow their guidance… Ask any of them. They wouldn’t even follow it for their own family. So there you have it. The CDC is giving advice experts wouldn’t follow. The most brutal truth is that the CDC probably didn’t have a choice but to bend their own rules. America’s logistics and supply chains probably will crumple if we don’t compel at least some workers to return while they’re still sick. That’s what the past year of inaction has led us to, an impossible situation. Now we get to choose between watching everything from hospitals to grocery stores implode, or forcing people to risk their health so we can buy food and fill our prescriptions. It’s a lose-lose. Of course, the key problem isn’t health guidelines. It’s how businesses are going to interpret them. Already, we’re seeing scores of people commanded back to work, even when they’re so sick they can barely think straight. These managers and supervisors don’t care about Covid, or their employees. Some of them never did, only profits. A few of us understand what’s already hitting. Here’s where things get difficult: Omicron is going to shut the economy down, whether we like it or not. The CDC and the White House are trying desperately to stave off the inevitable, a dark winter full of sickness and scarcity. They chose the wrong play, the one that prioritized false hope and positive thinking over strategic planning. They had plenty of chances, all missed. We should be mass producing N95 masks right now and telling people to stay home if they’re a little sick. We should be deploying the national guard in advance of overflowing hospitals, not in response. We should not be counting on the waning immunity from outdated vaccines to carry us through this brutal stretch. This dream is already failing, and the people in charge aren’t going to notice until it’s too late. At this point, we’re not just talking about Covid deaths. We’re talking about deaths from untreated emergencies, canceled surgeries, and unfilled prescriptions. We’re talking about disruptions to the basic services we rely on to function as a society. All of it’s at stake. Don’t give into the panic. Panic will strike again as Americans wake up from their hopium holiday next week and realize we vastly underestimated Omicron. They’re not prepared for what’s coming. Here’s where we have to stay strong and not give into the panic. The people who truly freak out will be the ones who laughed at us when we pleaded with everyone to mask and distance over the holidays. They’ll be the ones hoarding toilet paper and rushing to emergency rooms, spitting on nurses, and pleading for vaccines before going on a ventilator. That’s true panic. What we should be doing is planning to spend yet another 3–5 weeks mainly at home, doing our best to live life and take care of the people we care about. We need to resist our bosses when they call us into work sick, and demand our leaders finally start paying attention to reality. America had a chance to prepare. They didn’t. A Majority of Americans Have Lost Their F — ing Minds Savage behavior deserves savage commentary.  Adobe Stock I’m scared — and angry. I’m tired of the bullshit. Aren’t you? We have to let the plumbers into our house, this week of all weeks, to fix a problem that can’t wait. We’re at their mercy. We can hope they’re boosted, and we can ask them to wear a mask. We can strap on our N95s, including our toddler who has learned to wear one. We can open our windows and run fans and filters, but it might not be enough. Sometimes, it’s not. Earlier this year, I honestly thought the pandemic was drawing to a close. Then the CDC made a series of stupid mistakes. We botched the vaccine and booster rollout, and now it feels like we’re declaring a hollow victory to avoid the humiliation of surrender. America has done this before, in Vietnam and then again in Iraq and Afghanistan. We declared a war on drugs and poverty, and we lost those, too. Drugs and poverty are kicking our ass. We pretend to be resilient winners, but we’re not. We’re a country of whiners. This would be a very different pandemic if I weren’t parenting a child who can’t get vaccinated. Life completely changes once you become responsible for someone else’s life, not just your own. You see the world differently. Things stand out. The cult of personal responsibility has failed. Responsibility for other people’s lives is something Americans have truly failed at over the last two years. We just don’t get it. Experts have warned and warned us about the consequences of doing nothing to address a crisis on a collective level. Now the U.S. is reporting the worst Covid numbers on record. Today we hit 484,000 cases. Despite the absurd story about Omicron’s mildness, we’re also reaching record numbers of hospital and ICU patients. Maryland has already announced crisis standards of care. In Arizona, doctors are pitching medical tents again to deal with the overflows of patients: These numbers should scare us all, because it blows right through the worst predictions by epidemiologists. Just a few days ago, even the most blunt experts scoffed at the idea of 500,000 infections per day. They forgot, we live in America, the land of freedom. The CDC is predicting 15,000 deaths a week to Covid by early January, and you can bet they’re being conservative. There’s a good chance we’ll blow right through those estimates, too. Almost everywhere, I hear cruel laughter from the vaccinated. They’re so invested in seeing the unvaccinated suffer, they’ve completely forgotten everyone else, including the vaccinated who are going to die or wind up with severe chronic illness for years to come. They truly don’t give a damn about all the innocent lives who are going to get caught in this crossfire, especially children. It’s disturbing. Americans don’t really believe in responsibility. Time and again, Americans have spouted this pointless maxim about “personal responsibility” and “personal risk,” completely failing to grasp that our collective asses are on the line. It doesn’t matter how many precautions we take when vaccinated and unvaccinated alike are going around without masks, refusing to self-quarantine, and pretending the pandemic is over for them. This is selfishness and immaturity on a scale we can actually measure, reflected to us in our astounding case numbers, which are shrugged off as somehow inconsequential now. Things keep getting worse precisely because we don’t tolerate the slightest inconvenience. We wait until a problem personally impacts us, and then we lose our shit. We throw tantrums worse than any toddler. The ones who flout mandates are the first ones to spit on nurses and yell death threats at them when they need a hospital bed. It’s truly revolting. We keep ignoring common sense, and then looking for someone else to blame when it blows up in our face. It’s ironic… When Americans talk about personal responsibility, they’re never talking about themselves. They always mean someone else. It’s the other groups who need to work harder. It’s that guy over there. It’s that Karen having a meltdown in Victoria’s Secret. It’s never us. In America, the phrase “personal responsibility” is just a phrase we use to deflect attention from our own shitty behavior. It’s not a personal philosophy. It’s an excuse. The cult of positive thinking has failed, too. Americans hope and hope. They never plan. They ridicule and denounce people for “doom and gloom,” while throwing common sense down on the ground and stomping on it. I have a message for these people: Don’t ever talk to me about hope or optimism again. I’ve seen enough. Your hope and optimism are dangerous drugs. True hope can only exist in a time and place where people do the right thing, and take care of each other, or at least don’t cheer for each other’s deaths. This country has gorged itself on empty hope, and now it’s choking. True hope lives in my house, between me and my family members, my closet friends, and my readers. It’s baked into every word I write, because I believe we can do better than this shit show we’ve performed so far. Otherwise, I would stop writing and start selling crypto. Don’t bring your fake, glittery fool’s hope anywhere near us. We don’t want it. There’s a small number of people, maybe a third of us, who’ve been doing the right thing the whole time. We’re sick of being told to think positive while the majority of Americans destroy what’s left of our healthcare system, all so they can go out shopping and drinking. My only hope right now is that I can protect my child long enough for her to get vaccinated somehow, and that we can survive this pandemic of reckless, callous, shallow self-interest. I hope that maybe she can enjoy a few months of preschool before she turns five. That’s all I want, and I’m doing everything I can to make it happen. Unfortunately, my plans hinge on other people doing the right thing and giving a shit about someone else, and we’ve been thoroughly disappointed on that front for going on two years. Positive thinking and optimism don’t work. Hope isn’t given. It’s earned. This is bigger than red vs. blue. You know what? I’m done hating on republicans for now. We’ve spent a lot of time talking about bloodthirsty conspiracy theorists over the last year or so, and we know they’re almost beyond hope. They’ve done a lot of damage, but right now they’re not the ones in charge of our policies. This time, it’s the “liberals.” I’m truly appalled at some of the condescending indifference I see coming from smug elitists who are now busy telling parents and caretakers of immunocompromised people that they don’t matter, lecturing them about how “Not everything’s about you.” “We have to move on.” Jesus Christ. Many of the liberal pundits and public intellectuals who were wagging their finger at reckless Covid policies from last year are now demanding we “learn to live with it,” even as our current plans fall apart, leaving tens of millions of people essentially helpless. It’s disgraceful, and because of them I’m ashamed I ever called myself a democrat. I’m done. Yes, there’s a point in talking about this. Someone recently told me it’s pointless to keep writing about the pandemic. They’re right, in the sense that I’m no longer trying to persuade anyone to do the right thing. That time has passed. I don’t really care if my words bug anyone, or if some people get annoyed with me or my pessimistic attitude. Besides, there’s a point. First, millions of us are looking for words to express what we’re thinking and feeling right now as America leads the world into the darkest hour of the pandemic yet, even while the media continues its daily deluge of “good news” in order to justify another foolish attempt to haul us back into offices and classrooms where we have absolutely no reason to feel safe. There are a lot of emotions, and we need to articulate them. Otherwise, we’ll burst. There’s a point in talking about America’s colossal failure, because it’s profound. It’s on a moral level. We failed to take care of each other. We failed to be proactive. We failed to live up to our ideals. We failed to keep our promises, and now everyone’s paying. As a country, we continue to abuse the idea of responsibility, only using that word in its cheapest, most superficial sense. We should be asking ourselves what kind of country loosens its quarantine guidelines while the rest of the world is imposing restrictions and mandates. We should be asking what kind of country does nothing but cajole Americans back to work and school while hospitalizations among children skyrocket. I’ll tell you what kind… It’s a country that has lost its moral center. It’s a country that has lost any semblance of its values, a country that has lost sight of what really matters. It’s a country showing everyone its true spirit right now, right in line with its heritage of theft and oppression. We keep saying we’re better than our past, but we keep replaying its greatest hits. This one’s going platinum. |
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I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
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Tabitha111
Adviser Group Joined: January 11 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 11640 |
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Great post ViQueen! |
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'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Online Points: 95757 |
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ViQueen, impressive, thank you.... [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojTAxYheSns[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojTAxYheSns Arvo Pärt - Da Pacem time for reflection....([url]https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Do_not_stand_at_my_grave_and_weep[/url] or https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Do_not_stand_at_my_grave_and_weep ) |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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