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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

scenario's

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2022 at 10:24pm

roni3470, here in NL we also had the flu showing up recently...if people catch both flu and CoViD they are more likely to end up in hospital (or die)...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DvAjTfiG6E[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DvAjTfiG6E Tim Spector/ZOE;

1 in 15 people has COVID in new record highs

In the data this week, Tim shares how COVID symptoms have changed over time and some advice and reassurance on how to prepare for the lack for free testing in the UK. He also shares interesting research on gut disease and how eating a lot of plants has an impact on gut and digestive problems.

A look at [url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time 4,5 million people in the UK now have CoViD symptoms (runny nose, pain in the throat, fatigue, headache...also fever, and (limited) loss of smell). Government in the UK comes up with under 2 million active cases...

DJ-both numbers are very high....

Here in NL (also) [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/29/covid-mortality-higher-among-ethnically-diverse-communities[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/29/covid-mortality-higher-among-ethnically-diverse-communities ..Latest statistics from NL [url]https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/visualisaties/welvaart-in-coronatijd/gezondheid-in-coronatijd[/url] or https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/visualisaties/welvaart-in-coronatijd/gezondheid-in-coronatijd (in Dutch=machine translation may do a good job) .

In 2021 11% of all NL deaths were from corona (or testing positive for it ???), That were 19,379 deaths, 61% of them 80 y/o+, combined with the 2020 CBS (Central Bureau of Statistics) they see 39,552 NL corona deaths...The RIVM/NL-CDC reported 21,049 CoViD deaths.

The CBS numbers come from death certificates, NL doctors/GP's do not have to report CoViD deaths to the RIVM/NL-CDC...So the NL-CBS numbers should have more value...

However in the media-since 61% is 80+, they are presented as dying from old age...may not even get tested; "pneumonia" maybe reason of death...

DJ-Since the [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ depend on reporting from countries; NL deaths 21,987=NL/CDC number a low estimate for global CoViD deaths would be twice the official 6 million...

A look at Dr. John Campbell-getting maybe more realistic [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBL7jDloIcw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBL7jDloIcw (lots of info under his video).

South Korea reporting 320,675 new cases,-12% and 375 deaths -4%...most likely BA.2.2

Germany, France at #2 and #3...Vietnam at #4...UK and US at #8 and #9...but I do not trust their statistics...India at #50 with reporting 1,335 new cases and 52 deaths..

A look at China; cases would go down...-36%, less then 10,000 cases in the last 7 days...that is why 50 million Chinese are now in a lockdown...Further disrupting global trade...I find it very hard to believe that number...[url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-01/Chinese-mainland-records-1-827-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-18RYBVYJ6Pm/index.html[/url] or https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-01/Chinese-mainland-records-1-827-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-18RYBVYJ6Pm/index.html ;

The Chinese mainland recorded 1,827 new confirmed COVID-19 cases on Thursday with 1,787 linked to local transmissions and 40 from overseas, according to data from the National Health Commission on Friday.

A total of 5,559 new asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Thursday, and 59,056 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

Confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland now total 151,103, with the death toll at 4,638.

The latest tally of confirmed cases in the Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions and Taiwan region is as follows:

Hong Kong: 286,313 (47,181 recoveries, 7,825 deaths)

Macao: 82 (81 recoveries)

Taiwan: 23,394 (13,742 recoveries, 853 deaths)

Worldometers has 1,839 new Chinese cases...DJ-China may claim massive testing, massive isolating cases may result in such low numbers...Indeed those "low" numbers are (close to) the highest China did see all of this pandemic...

Robot roaming the streets making health announcements in #Shanghai during lockdown.

A dog-like robot...DJ-making my mind up-I decide for now I am willing to believe China very strict try for Zero CoViD strategy may be better then "let the virus run free" most of the west is doing...








COVID is a preventable disease. #ResistMassInfection

So-YES let us all try to prevent it as best we can...how ?

-INFORM !!!! Governments/mass media fail to bring relevant news often; so inform yourself to inform others !

Maybe the basic message is that CoViD/the pandemic is NOT over...maybe now-for this time-it may be-in some area's be less deathly then the flu...but it is also different from the flu...soon may be a mass killer...But if we stop it we will not know if we prevented a tragedy...

-MASK !!!!! If you were a mask in a public space it makes it easier for others to do so...If I go to a supermarket I go there early-quiet-morning...still using a mask !

-VACCINATE !!!! Yes there are risks, it is far from perfect, but it may help to limit spread, infection, long CoViD...as part of a strategy it may be better then do nothing...

-Take it SERIOUS, a pandemic from whatever virus is NEVER !!! a joke...It means the virus was able to do harm in several global regions...By now CoViD may have killed between 20 and 50 million people worldwide...most of them most likely never even did get tested ! CoViD must be widespread in non-human hosts, animals...and that will bring further problems !

-A last point...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports still NOT mentioning the many subvariants of BA.2...BA,2 itself should not be named "Omicron"-it is a new Variant Of Concern (VOC) but [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues is coming up with all kinds of sub-variants of BA.2,  [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/495[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/495 ;

Proposal for new sub-lineage of BA.2.3 with C23591G (S: Q677E) in Japan #495

Somehow NOT ending up in a global databank...all is "BA.2"...while people get infected from one form of BA.2 with another in a short time...

GGGGGGGGGGGGGGRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR I am getting very angry !!! Time for coffee-end of part 1 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2022 at 11:33pm

I calmed down a bit...looking at the "winter-wonder-land..snow...April 1-we had some summer days allready....

Coffee-part 2;

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/research-natural-antiviral-found-in-broccoli-cabbage-brussels-and-cauliflower/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/research-natural-antiviral-found-in-broccoli-cabbage-brussels-and-cauliflower/ but also ZOE/Tim Spector mentioning good food can help prevent often major problems...may help limit damage...(but you also need to be lucky)...

“We evaluated the antiviral activity of sulforaphane (SFN), the principal biologically active phytochemical derived from glucoraphanin, the naturally occurring precursor present in high concentrations in cruciferous vegetables. SFN inhibited in vitro replication of six strains of SARS-CoV-2, including Delta and Omicron, as well as that of the seasonal coronavirus HCoV-OC43.”

Research: Sulforaphane exhibits antiviral activity against pandemic SARS-CoV-2 and seasonal HCoV-OC43 coronaviruses in vitro and in mice

 

Cruciferous vegetables are part of the Brassica genus of plants. They include the following vegetables, among others:

  • Arugula 
  • Bok choy  
  • Broccoli 
  • Brussels sprouts
  • Cabbage 
  • Cauliflower 
  • Collard greens
  • Horseradish
  • Kale  
  • Radishes
  • Rutabaga
  • Turnips
  • Watercress
  • Wasabi

National Cancer Institute article

DJ, One can end up in discussions on "did people do enough not to get sick"....I hate that kind of discussion; it can easily become "blame the victim" ...Again getting good info out is one part...Here in NL there is also a discussion on Added Value Tax (BTW) on sorts of food; from extra tax on sugar, meat to dropping tax on fruits, vegetables...But it is a very complicated matter...one can make all kind of unhealthy snacks (meat replacements)  ending up not being taxed...cheaper "Frech Fries" made of potato-so no meat or sugar-is not helping...

For that matter better education may offer more perspective...Increasing tax on smoking did not end smoking...Limiting shops offering sigarettes may even work better then increasing the price...

With all of this pandemic-what role do governments have to play...I think they should be very active...most of the voters disagree....so obesity is increasing and obese people get blamed making matters worse...

-[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/netherlands-ba-1-1-ba-2-recombinant-designated-xm/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/netherlands-ba-1-1-ba-2-recombinant-designated-xm/

A recombinant SARS-CoV-2 variant originally sequenced in the Netherlandshas been designated XM. It’s a combination of the Omicron BA1.1 and BA.2 subvariants.

From Gisaid:

Recombinant between: BA.1.1 & BA.2
Earliest sequence: 2022/2/21 (NL-NH)
Most recent sequence: 2022/3/04 (NL-NH)
Countries circulating: Netherlands (NH)
Likely breakpoint: between 17410 and 19995 (NSP13 or NSP14 or NSP15, ORF1b).
Cov-spectrum query: C15240T, C2470T, A18163G, C19955T, A20055G

Genomes:
hCoV-19/Netherlands/NH_AUMC-004734/2022 EPI_ISL_10925473 2022-03-04
hCoV-19/Netherlands/NH_AUMC-004178/2022 EPI_ISL_10925492 2022-02-21

https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/Netherlands/AllSamples/Past6M/variants?nucMutations=C15240T%2CC2470T%2CA18163G%2CC19955T%2CA20055G

DJ, "M" is the 13th letter in the alphabet...so by now 13 BA.1/BA.2 recombinations did get names...At least 7 BA.2 sub-variants (with also suggestion of sub-sub variants like Japan BA.2.3.1 ?)...it is getting complex...Statistics could give info on risks of new recombinations or subvariants...The Hong Kong BA.2.2 is high risk...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/children/hong-kong-ba-2-causes-7-times-more-deaths-among-hospitalised-children-than-flu/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/children/hong-kong-ba-2-causes-7-times-more-deaths-among-hospitalised-children-than-flu/

According to the report, about 15 per cent of hospitalised youngsters who had contracted the sub-variant developed neurological complications and more than 6 per cent had respiratory complications, with 21 children being sent to paediatric intensive care.

“We have seen seizures that lasted up to 30 minutes, swollen vocal cords, changes in consciousness and acute brain inflammation. All these are unique to this Omicron sub-variant,” he said. “It is particularly worrying because seizures lasting that long might lead to brain hypoxia.”

Kwan said that researchers were particularly worried about children contracting the sub-variant, with the strain capable of causing “severe damage to their central nervous system and respiratory system”.

SCMP report

Interpretation: The intrinsic severity of Omicron BA.2 is not mild as evident by the fatality and severe complications of the uninfected and unvaccinated children.

Lancet preprint: Intrinsic Severity of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 in Uninfected, Unvaccinated Children: A Population-Based, Case-Control Study on Hospital Complications

But you need good testing and sequencing....and even then put it into perspective...Are they talking about 4 people dying ? The sub-group is a-hospital BA.2.2 case and b-under 18...so it still may show a higher risk but still for a limited group ending bad ? 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-immunocompetent-vaccinated-pregnant-japanese-woman-infected-with-sars-cov-2-exhibits-viral-shedding-for-more-than-221-days[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-immunocompetent-vaccinated-pregnant-japanese-woman-infected-with-sars-cov-2-exhibits-viral-shedding-for-more-than-221-days ; DJ Pregnant women are also a "limited subgroup" at higher risk...

Another point is "viral shedding" -so being able to spread disease, infect others -in my opinion- deserves testing. If you test negative twice via a lateral flow/at home test...within 10-14 days after testing positive (say test 1 on day 7, test 2 on day 10-both being negative) you may have "a basis" to "believe" risks of infecting others could be "limited"...

DJ-As far as I did follow the info...most of the people should not spread the virus 2 to 3 weeks after testing positive...However-frustratingly-some may be spreading the virus longer...

And this is only talking about upper respitory viral spread...The virus may still be in the body...can show up later on via such a LF/at home test...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/france-nearly-700000-covid-reinfections-reported/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/france-nearly-700000-covid-reinfections-reported/ ;

685,858 possible cases of reinfection identified between March 2, 2021 and March 20, 2022, of which 95.2% since December 6, 2021 (start of distribution of the Omicron variant in France). 50% of possible cases of reinfection were between 18 and 40 years old.

88% of possible cases of reinfection for which a screening result was available and interpretable for the reinfection episode had a result suggestive of Omicron.

Infections:

 

Reinfections:

 

Proportion of cases that are infections:


DJ-So I question if all those cases are re-infection or the virus was allready in the body-reached upper respitory spots-showing up again in LF/PCR testing...

So newer variants;

-itself may be able better to evade immunity...reinfecting but also evading vaccine immunity

-They may also be better to hide in the body-showing up later on-even after several negative tests...

One may only come to such a conclusion if a person did live in total isolation...

DJ-I think it is high time for better testing methods;

-Can the LF-test stick-now only used for nasal swabs in most countries-give good info used for oral/throat swabs as well (some countries use it for oral swabs...the US-CDC still against it...the test was not made for oral swabs...) 

DJ-If using the LF-at home test-has a high chance giving false negatives when it is used in oral swabs (or even worse-you may spread the virus from your nose to your throat !) there may be good reasons to be very carefull using those LF-at home tests this way !!! (DJ-The US-CDC may have a point here ! in the UK those at home tests were for free till april 1, so you could use two seperate sticks...Here in NL these tests are not for free (we did get a few for free by the government...but not enough to use two test-sticks for most people)...

DJ-I (still) wonder if using the LF-at home test-stick in "stool" would detect viral parts ? Maybe in people testing positive by PCR using LF-test for their "stool" could be an easy way for DIY testing to find out if there are still virusses in your body ? (But such tests used that way need studies...would they also detect dead viral parts ? What does a "positive test" mean here ?)

Of course there is also blood testing...maybe we have to increase that...

Air/sewage samples can also inform on viral parts in the air (public building...maybe also at home ?) or in sewage...

DJ-The basics-in my opinion-is that "if we have to live with the virus" we then at least should try to control that virus...Otherwise we end up like "living with climate collapse, fiat-currencies" ...we did build mega-cities on melting ice...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2022 at 9:38am

Thanks Dutch!  I appreciate all your hard work and posts!  You are a rockstar!


NOW is the Season to Know

that Everything you Do

is Sacred
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2022 at 12:15pm

roni3470, thank you....

I try to share my thoughts (and the links I get the info from) on this forum...Hope to "limit non-sense"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/935609-discussion-thread-vii-covid-19-endemic-stage/page7[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/935609-discussion-thread-vii-covid-19-endemic-stage/page7It’s over.

Any control over Covid we had is over.

Duty doctor today. I’ve lost count of the number of patients I’ve seen with classic Covid symptoms

NOT A SINGLE PERSON has isolated or done a PCR test. Everyone’s mixing & infecting each other. There is no control. It’s over.

DJ from [url]https://twitter.com/DrNeenaJha[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrNeenaJha 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/who-outlines-strategy-end-global-covid-19-emergency-2022[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/who-outlines-strategy-end-global-covid-19-emergency-2022 ;

In the WHO’s base case planning scenario, which serves as the WHO’s working model, the virus continues to evolve, but causes less severe outbreaks due to sustained and sufficient immunity against severe disease and death. There will likely be periodic spikes in transmission as immunity wanes. Booster shots might be needed periodically for those most at risk. The virus would likely fall into a seasonal pattern, with peaks in colder months—similar to influenza.

The WHO’s best case scenario envisions future variants as being “significantly less severe,” while protection from severe disease would be maintained without the need for periodic boosting or significant changes to current vaccines.

The worst case scenario sees the emergence of a more virulent and highly transmissible variant against which vaccines are less effective, and/or immunity against severe disease and death wanes rapidly, particularly in the most vulnerable groups. This would require significant changes to current vaccines and full redeployment and/or broader boosting for those most at risk.

To help end the emergency phase of the pandemic, WHO called on countries to continue or increase their virus surveillance capabilities to allow for early warning signs of significant changes in the virus. It also called for improved detection of long COVID, to track and reduce long-term disability after the pandemic has ended.

Countries also must continue to do diagnostic testing for the novel coronavirus, which helps identify leading strains causing infections and guide community-level decision making. Countries also must track virus evolution within animal populations, according to the WHO.

“We have global systems to better understand the virus as it changes, and we have the vaccines, diagnostic tools, treatments, and other public health and social measures to end the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic,” the director-general said.

“Focus, vigilance, and commitment now will end the emergency of the pandemic and lay the foundations for a more effective response to the future threats that will undoubtedly emerge. But the pandemic remains far from over,” he added.

DJ Looking at how this pandemic did develop so far the only realistic scenario-in my opinion-is the "worst case" one...we are allready in it with BA.2 subvariants showing up all over the globe and most governments simply in denial...

The WHO (like IPCC in climate "change"...) is a political organization in need of funding from member states...NOT in a position to state member states are doing a bad job...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/who-the-worlds-most-boring-report-ever-proposes-an-end-to-the-pandemic/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/who-the-worlds-most-boring-report-ever-proposes-an-end-to-the-pandemic/

 28 pages of finger-crossing, hand-wringing, wishful thinking dross. An epic black hole riddled with buzz phrases, key words, bullet points, legal clauses, minute fonts and pointless diagrams. Ugh.

“Strategic Preparedness, Readiness and Response Plan to end the global Covid-19 emergency in 2022”.  And that’s just the title.

-

Incredibly, this single sentence is all the report has to say about Long Covid:

“Improved detection of the Post-COVID-19 Condition (Long COVID) will be necessary to reduce long-term morbidity
even after the pandemic has ended.”

DJ, The Zero Hedge article may be better then the report itself.....

Supposedly the 1st registered intranasal Covid19 vaccine. Haven't seen the data, so not sure how trustworthy this is, but would wish their development could be sped up. If these could be self-administered & would block transmission better they could be a game changer.

DJ, only one problem...it is Russian...






Sputnik V

@sputnikvaccine
 · 
BREAKING: Russian Health Ministry registers the nasal version of Sputnik V, the world's first nasal vaccine against COVID-19

So "we" may have to wait still for a western alternative...[url]https://tass.com/world/1431285[/url] or https://tass.com/world/1431285 ;

Russian Health Ministry registers world’s first nasal spray coronavirus vaccine

The vaccine consists of two components based on the type 16 and type 5 adenovirus vectors

MOSCOW, April 1. /TASS/. The world’s first nasal spray coronavirus vaccine has been registered in Russia, the Health Ministry said in a statement on Friday.

"The Russian Health Ministry has registered the nasal spray form of the Gam-COVID-Vac (Sputnik V) coronavirus vaccine developed by the Health Ministry’s Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology," the statement reads.

According to the ministry, the vaccine consists of two components based on the type 16 and type 5 adenovirus vectors. The two doses will be administered with an interval of three weeks.

This kind of vaccination creates mucosal immunity against the coronavirus within the respiratory tract. "The use of a nasal spray induces a humoral immune response (boosting IgA antibody titers in the blood and nasal secretions and virus-neutralizing IgG antibody titers in the blood) and a cellular immune response to the infection caused by SARS-CoV-2," the statement added.

At this point, the vaccine is intended for the immunization of individuals over the age of 18.

Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said earlier that the use of the nasal spray coronavirus vaccine would be included in recommendations for booster shots.

DJ, I do not know why it is taking so long to develop nasal vaccine-sprays...expected to give better immunity protection. Lots of countries did work on nasal vaccine sprays...

Living with the virus may only be able with massive and repeated mass vaccinations...[url]https://sputnikvaccine.com/about-us/[/url] or https://sputnikvaccine.com/about-us/ ;

The Gamaleya National Center of Epidemiology and Microbiology is the world’s leading research institution. The center was founded in 1891 as a private laboratory. Since 1949 it bears the name of Nikolai Gamaleya, a pioneer in Russian microbiology studies.

Gamaleya studied at the laboratory of French biologist Louis Pasteur in Paris and opened the world’s second vaccination station for rabies in Russia in 1886. In the 20th century, Gamaleya as one of the heads of the center fought epidemics of cholera, diphtheria and typhus and organized mass vaccination campaigns in the Soviet Union.

The center runs one of the unique “virus libraries” in the world and has its own vaccine production facility. Since the 1980s, the specialists of the Gamaleya Center led the effort to develop a technological platform using adenoviruses, initially extracted from human adenoids.

The Gamaleya Center successfully developed and registered in 2015 two vector-based vaccines against Ebola fever using the adenovirus vector platform. Another Ebola fever vaccine was registered in 2020. The vaccines have been officially approved for use by the Russian Health Ministry. About 2,000 people in Guinea received injections of Ebola vaccine in 2017-18 as part of Phase 3 clinical trial. Gamaleya Research Center received an international patent for Ebola vaccine.

Gamaleya Research Center used adenoviral vectors to develop vaccines against influenza and against Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS). Both vaccines are currently in advanced stages of clinical trials.

Since 1997 Alexander Gintsburg, a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, heads the Gamaleya Center.

May bring more info on results....[url]https://sputnikvaccine.com/partnerships/[/url] or https://sputnikvaccine.com/partnerships/ ;

The RDIF finances the production of Sputnik V in Russia using the manufacturing capacity of its portfolio companies, R-Pharm and Binnopharm (part of the Alium Group), and actively cooperates with more than 14 countries producing our vaccine abroad, including India, China, Brazil, Mexico, Egypt, Iran, Italy, South Korea, Argentina, Kazakhstan, the Republic of Belarus, Serbia, Turkey, Vietnam, etc.

The RDIF is successfully conducting Phase 3 clinical trials in 4 countries: Belarus, the UAE, India and Venezuela. Sputnik V has been approved for use in 71 countries with a total population of 4 billion people.

Vaccination with Sputnik V is underway in more than 50 countries on 4 continents, including Argentina, Hungary, Bolivia, Algeria, Montenegro, Paraguay, etc.

Mass production and easy storage, transport, use, low cost, are essential...DJ new vaccines, way of vaccination may offer some perspective... 

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues has 14 new "issues"  from around the globe...

DJ-Nasal vaccines are welcome news, also [url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220401002854320?section=national/national[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220401002854320?section=national/national

SEOUL, April 1 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's new daily COVID-19 cases dipped below 300,000 on Friday as the omicron wave that gripped the country for months appears to be topping out with 1 in every 4 people having had the virus.

The country reported 280,273 new COVID-19 infections, including 48 cases from overseas, bringing the total caseload to 13,375,818, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) said.

South Korea has seen a downward trend in daily COVID-19 infections for the first time in about three months, recording a nearly one-month low of 187,182 on Monday, in sharp contrast to the all-time high of over 620,000 on March 17.

DJ, the BA.2 (? was it BA.2.2 from Hong Kong ????) variant finally slowing down in South Korea...bad news of course is it is increasing (again) in lots of other places...US cases now at -0,8%...deaths -18%...

Iran cases +61%...[url]https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/471244/Despite-sanctions-Iran-has-achieved-notable-progress-in-biotechnology[/url] or https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/471244/Despite-sanctions-Iran-has-achieved-notable-progress-in-biotechnology I hoped to find more info on the sub-variant spreading in Iran....[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=IRN[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=IRN info is from march 1...BA.2 at 14% of all 60 day sequences...Maybe India-sources could give more info...Worldometers gets its info from [url]https://en.irna.ir/news/84702163/Coronavirus-death-toll-drops-to-36-in-Iran[/url] or https://en.irna.ir/news/84702163/Coronavirus-death-toll-drops-to-36-in-Iran..............................

End of this part...tomorrow morning I try to get more...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2022 at 10:15pm

DJ, 

Numbers; 

U.S. COVID update: Cases rise for 4th day this week - New cases: 33,403 - Average: 27,071 (+111) - States reporting: 41/50 - In hospital: 14,528 (-130) - In ICU: 2,322 (-58) - New deaths: 642 - Average: 667 (-33) More data: https://newsnodes.com/us

and 

Shanghai reports 6,311 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record

but also [url]https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-global-pandemic-trend/a-53954594[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-global-pandemic-trend/a-53954594 looking at 4 week trends...

DJ-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  like all other statistics need cases to get tested and reported...If countries for whatever reason fail to test and report you simply may not be able to get usefull statistics...

Looking at "highest new cases" South Korea, Germany and France still (all above 100,000 cases) make up the top 3...There is no "new cases per million of population"; otherwise that could be used to see how-relatively-countries are doing...

When you go for "active cases" US has over 15 million, Germany over 4,5 million, France 2,3 million, Vietnam 2 million...the UK in this worldometer-info at #5 with 1,975 million active cases...however [url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time puts that number-based on selfreporting of symptoms-at 5 million...

So "pick your number"....NL CoViD deaths; NL CDC just over 20,000, NL-statistics office 40,000 (based on death certificates)....

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ also has some-limited-use to get the bigger picture...Global cases being reported now at -13%, deaths -19%...

Papua New Guinea cases +67,000%...0 case last week, 670 last 7 days...maybe the news is did P.N.G. not have tests last week, enough tests the last 7 days ??? [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=PNG&dark=true[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=PNG&dark=true 100% BA.2 last 60 days sequences...last info from march 4...Somehow Outbreak sticking to "just BA.2" while there most likely are lots of subvariants of BA.2 (BA.2.1 UK, BA.2.2 Hong Kong....at least to BA.2.7  and then there are sub-sub-lineages...BA.2.2.1 .....not to be mixed up with recombinations now going to XM (NL link).....

So numbers....but you need-certainly this far in this pandemic-need context to see what the numbers mean...global reported cases over 1,3 million-till december 2021-start of Omicron-the number was under a million per day for new cases....Reported deaths 3,747....a low number-when you look at the number of reported deaths per day during this pandemic...

But these are "easy numbers"; a case is a person testing positive-at least in most countries-often linked tp PCR-testing...Also "death" is quite clear defined...but complications start with did a person die "with" or "from" CoViD...given a lot of those who die from it also are 70+, 80+...older people...

Another much less defined point is "Long CoViD"...for (I believe the CDC a.o.) some +6 weeks of healt issues is "Long CoViD others may put a limit at 6 months or a year...

Linking that "Long CoViD" to chronic Q-fever, Lyme-disease, ME-CFS/post-viral syndrome may make clear the socio-economic consequences; people unable to do a/their job long time...but also brings in denial;

-Long CoViD patients themselve may find it very hard to accept "their live has changed"...still some recover...not allways clear how that proces goes...

-Politics/economy has to provide some basic income&care for a large group of people

-Long CoViD will hit hard in "social jobs"; health care, education, security....

So-even if governments/healthcare was willing/able to give good numbers you still end up with a lot of questions....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/john-ioannidis-public-health-officials-need-declare-end-pandemic[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/john-ioannidis-public-health-officials-need-declare-end-pandemic ;

While Ioannidis recognizes that there are no quantitative definitions for the end of a pandemic like COVID-19, he contends that the amount of immunity now present worldwide exceeds the threshold needed to declare SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, endemic – constantly present but not a public health emergency.

"By end 2021, probably 73-81% of the global population had been vaccinated, infected or both," he says. Pockets of low immunity, such as in places that pursued zero-COVID policies and/or with limited access to effective vaccines, may persist, causing regional outbreaks, but we will likely never see COVID-19 again trigger a global emergency.

Declaring the pandemic phase of COVID-19 to be concluded means understanding and accepting a new "normal".

-

Declaring the pandemic phase of COVID-19 to be concluded means understanding and accepting a new "normal".

"A decrease of COVID-19 deaths back to typical seasonal influenza levels may not necessarily happen in 2022 or even beyond," Ioannidis cautions. "With an increasingly aging global population, "normal" may still correspond to higher death counts... This should not be mistaken as a continued pandemic phase."

Easing out of the pandemic requires a widespread mental shift, as well. This means focusing more on indicators like hospital intensive care admissions to guide policy rather than just infections.

-

Exiting the pandemic also means reducing fearmongering coverage of COVID-19 in the popular media, the propagation of which undoubtedly contributed to the public's warped perception of COVID's risks throughout the pandemic. On average, Americans believed in early 2021 that 8% of deaths had occurred in people under the age of 24. The actual percentage as of today is 0.3%. Moreover, a third of the population has consistently believed that COVID leads to hospitalization in over half of infections. During the most recent Omicron wave, the proportion was 3% or lower.

Declaring an end to the pandemic phase of COVID-19 has benefits, Ioannidis says. For example, it could allow public health organizations to refocus their time and money on more pressing global health issues, like poor nutrition and hunger, which collectively claim the lives of 9 million people each year, including 3.1 million children. For comparison, at least 6.2 million people have died from COVID-19 over the past two years, the vast majority over age 65. Accepting endemicity and reducing societal restrictions and disruptions would also permit economies to stabilize more rapidly, alleviating hardship, easing inflation, and reducing global inequality. Lastly, moving on from the pandemic could ease some of the political divisions that have fractured societies across the globe.

DJ, I agree that it is time to 'put this pandemic in perspective"...

But to put it in perspective you have to be realistic on what this pandemic did and still is doing.....

-A low estimate for people dying from (not with !) CoViD may be around 20 million (maybe the real deathtoll for India may be above 6 million !)

-Long CoViD health issues may affect maybe over 100 million people ? 

-Worldometer puts active global cases at above 59 million

-There are lots of new sub-variants/recombinations

So-by putting this pandemic in a realistic perspective one could end up giving this pandemic MORE priority, not less ! This CoViD-pandemic can worsen other diseases, from TB, flu to HIV....and yes-good public healthcare does cost money ....









Almost 75,000 NEW Covid cases yesterday And from today the government are ENDING universally free Covid testing Ha, the irony of doing this on April Fool’s day. That’s exactly what they take us for.

and 

Telling comment from a banker here in Zurich. I asked him, "What does the UK sell next" He didn't even hesitate. "O that's easy, every investment house knows that - the NHS,  worth a fortune.  We all want a piece of that deal"

there is a reason why this virus could become a pandemic...seeing everything as a profit-oppertunity, "the best government is no government"pseudo-liberalism....causing disaster (climate collapse) after disaster (endless wars-for profit) to this pandemic.....

The main reason why "pseudo liberalism-for profit" can be this dominant is because there is no well organized opposition against it...Even labour, "Green" do not want to stop "privatizing everything".....humans are self-destructive...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2022 at 10:02pm

DJ, 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-china-losing-fight-against-new-ba-2-variants,-13,146-new-covid-19-infections-in-last-24-hours-despite-stringent-lockdowns-and-measures[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-china-losing-fight-against-new-ba-2-variants,-13,146-new-covid-19-infections-in-last-24-hours-despite-stringent-lockdowns-and-measures 

China has "no chance" against BA.2 subvariants with the present strategy. The article mentions 13,146 new cases in China-Shanghai would see 8,226 new cases...somehow Worldometers only mentions 2,129 new Chines cases...trend would be -17% (last 7 days 11,246 new cases, week before 13,524...I think the TMN numbers are far more realistic...China is facing an explosion of BA.2 etc. that will see global economic consequences...). 








Shanghai reports 8,226 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record

DJ, [url]https://newsus.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-30/Shanghai-enters-two-phase-lockdown-to-combat-COVID-19-surge-18ObqVkGno4/index.html[/url] or https://newsus.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-30/Shanghai-enters-two-phase-lockdown-to-combat-COVID-19-surge-18ObqVkGno4/index.html

Shanghai has begun of a two-phase snap lockdown due to an increase of COVID-19 cases amid China’s zero-tolerance policy.  

Mass, staggered, nucleic acid testing is underway for the city’s 26 million people. 

China’s financial hub on Sunday reported a record 3,450 asymptomatic COVID-19 cases, accounting for nearly 70 percent of the nationwide total, along with 50 symptomatic cases. 

From Monday to Friday the Pudong financial district and nearby areas will be locked down, and the second phase, to begin Friday, will see a five day lockdown of the downtown area west of the Huangpu River.  

Residents are required to stay home and receive deliveries at designated checkpoints.

A look at the [url]https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3172789/what-xe-omicron-hybrid-and-should-we-be-worried-about-it?module=service_journalism_hk&pgtype=homepage[/url] or https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3172789/what-xe-omicron-hybrid-and-should-we-be-worried-about-it?module=service_journalism_hk&pgtype=homepage

Researchers in several countries have identified hybrid variants of the Delta and Omicron strains of the coronavirus.

They have also found one recombinant variant of sublineages of Omicron, which has shown early signs of being even more transmissible than the parent variants.

(DJ-There could be reasons why the SCMP starts talking about recombinants...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/recombination-details-on-xd-xe-and-xf-recombinants-by-tom-peacock/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/recombination-details-on-xd-xe-and-xf-recombinants-by-tom-peacock/  march 18...there now is also a NL [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/netherlands-ba-1-1-ba-2-recombinant-designated-xm/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/netherlands-ba-1-1-ba-2-recombinant-designated-xm/ XM-variant...)

The article names BA.2.2 (Hong Kong) as dominant but several other (recombinant) variants are also spreading high speed...the real number of cases allready-DJ-in the millions ????

A latest number has over 50 million Chinese in lock downs...one would have to go for a "national lockdown" to get some sort of control...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ global cases would be only just over 1 million, trend -15%, 2,735 deaths -18%...

India only would have 1,096 new cases and 81 deaths (weekly trend -25% and -34%...)....If that would be a realistic number India would not have a pandemic....[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/india-first-delta-ba-2-recombinant-recorded-in-karnatka/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/india-first-delta-ba-2-recombinant-recorded-in-karnatka/

hCoV-19/India/KA-CBR-1402CTD094/2022 EPI_ISL_10306555 2022-02-11

Potentially worth keeping an eye on

From Cornelius Roemer at Gisaid – issue #484

-

Meanwhile, BA.2 activity is off the charts:

New #PANGO designations - BA.2.* 
BA.2.4Alias of B.1.1.529.2.4, #Singapore 
lineage BA.2.5Alias of B.1.1.529.2.5, 
lineage in #Portugal and other countries 
BA.2.6Alias of B.1.1.529.2.6, lineage in #France and other countries 
BA.2.7Alias of B.1.1.529.2.7, #USA lineage

DJ [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/484[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/484 is 9 days old...in fact [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues is full of recombinations/mutations...with limited testing/sequencing that is VERY !!! alarming !

Somehow BA.2.1 to BA.2.7 and further NOT showing up in [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports only mentiong "BA.2" and BA.3" (so also missing a possible BA.4 from South Africa...)...

So "living with the virus", "it is mild", "endemic NOT pandemic"...[url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time UK over 4,5 million active cases....most likely highest number in this pandemic...

The fact that it may not get you in hospital or worse in the short term does not mean we should not check for longer term effects...

Raj Rajnarayanan
@RajlabN
Assistant Dean of Research and Associate Professor, NYITCOM at Arkansas State University | My Tweets are my own
EducationJonesboro, ARnyit.edu/arkansas

he is coming up with the BA.2.1 to 7 subvariants...may have Asian roots but working from the US...so how can it be those BA.2 subvariants are ignored ????










#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 60.38% BA.2*, <--   32.70% BA.1.1*, 6.04% BA.1* & 0.78%  None     *#Omicron  Tracker (by State, by Variant): http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7 Updated 04/02/22

link; [url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1510449382587609093/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1510449382587609093/photo/1 still only showing "BA.2"...not much more detailed...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2022 at 11:30pm

part 2, 

Scotland may see 50% more deaths in second Omicron wave, says expert ⁦⁩ called it

DJ link [url]https://www.scotsman.com/health/covid-scotland-may-see-50-more-deaths-in-second-omicron-wave-says-expert-3637823[/url] or https://www.scotsman.com/health/covid-scotland-may-see-50-more-deaths-in-second-omicron-wave-says-expert-3637823

It comes as the number of people reported in hospital with Covid returned to the highest on record on Friday, while the infection rate dipped slightly to the second-highest ever.

Covid infections have hit a record high across the UK, as free lateral flow testing came to an end in England on Friday. The same measure will be taken at the end of April in Scotland, with asymptomatic testing ending on April 18.

-

James Naismith, professor of structural biology at Oxford University, said Scotland was “living with the virus by being infected with it”. The number of people reported in hospital with Covid rose again on Friday to 2,383, matching the previous record set on Tuesday.

The number of Covid-related deaths at the peak of the second Omicron wave is set to be 50 per cent higher than during the first wave, according to estimates from Professor Sheila Bird, a senior visiting fellow at the Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit at Cambridge University and Honorary Professor of Edinburgh University’s College of Medicine.

Some 280 deaths were recorded with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate across the two-week peak of the Omicron subvariant BA.1 between January 10 and 23. 

But according to Prof Bird, the same figure over the current BA.2 peak between March 14 and 27 could reach 435 – an increase of 55 per cent.

This figure is based on estimates, due to delays in the registering and recording of deaths by National Records of Scotland.

Prof Bird said this figure assumes the past two weeks were the peak of the second wave of deaths. If not, the figures could become even worse.

-

Prof James Naismith said the current Omicron wave in Scotland had most likely peaked, at one in 12 people infected.

"No part of the UK has currently implemented effective control measures, the limit on prevalence of the virus is simply the proportion of susceptible people,” he said.

“This is literally living with the virus by being infected with it.”

Prof Naismith added that BA.2 still kills vulnerable people who are unvaccinated, and by risking such high levels of infection the UK has “decided to run a Long Covid experiment”.

Scotland is hit hard by BA.2.1 ...Most countries go for "ecomy/short term" first only to find out public health on the longer term is essential for the economy...but that "will be after next elections"...so "the show/lies must go on"....

Maybe-as a reminder [url]https://medriva.com/china-at-a-covid-tipping-point/#gs.v9jvup[/url] or https://medriva.com/china-at-a-covid-tipping-point/#gs.v9jvup ByEric Feigl-Ding

Bottomline

I believe China is now teetering at the edge between barely containing BA2 wave of COVID-19 and completely losing control like it has in Hong Kong—which we know could spell horrible conditions outcomes and huge economic difficulties and disruption to the most critical manufacturing and export centers of the world. Thus, this bodes extremely poorly for the rest of the global supply chain crisis and economic stability. And it could even spillover into the Russian-Ukraine driven inflation crisis. What happens in China over the coming weeks will affect the world. COVID is not over — with the world acting slowly only further endangering the world.

God help us.

DJ [url]https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/01/business/shanghai-covid-port-delays-global-impact-intl-hnk/index.html[/url] or https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/01/business/shanghai-covid-port-delays-global-impact-intl-hnk/index.html  BA.2 variants are now becoming dominant in the US...

Maybe-indeed-India would now have low numbers of CoViD after a high BA.2 cases wave...the "bad news" is it is more then likely new forms of CoViD may start spreading there as well...worldometer trends also indicating cases going up in Southern Africa a.o. 

Again "western media" doing a terrible job by ignoring risks...they spread disinformation to "serve their owners and advertisers" NOT the general public that would LOVE to believe the pandemic is over (climate change not being real, "we are winning the biden-war" etc...). 

The main reason why history can repeat itself-maybe in a somewhat different way-is that we do not want to know history, deny mistakes instead of learn from them...

We all are humans-far from perfect...making a mistake is NOT "a sin"....Maybe "religion" sometimes demands us to be "perfect" but we never will be perfect... 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/preprint-sars-cov-2-neuroinflammation-microhemorrhages-brain-hypoxia-and-neuropathology/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/preprint-sars-cov-2-neuroinflammation-microhemorrhages-brain-hypoxia-and-neuropathology/

“Here, we show neuroinflammation, microhemorrhages, brain hypoxia, and neuropathology that is consistent with hypoxic-ischemic injury in SARS-CoV-2 infected non-human primates (NHPs), including evidence of neuron degeneration and apoptosis.

Importantly, this is seen among infected animals that do not develop severe respiratory disease, which may provide insight into neurological symptoms associated with “long COVID”. Sparse virus is detected in brain endothelial cells but does not associate with the severity of central nervous system (CNS) injury.”

Preprint: Neuropathology and virus in brain of SARS-CoV-2 infected non-human primates

DJ-Long CoViD in (non-human) animals (I think...) 

A few other links;

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-new-york-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-virus-damages-heart-pacemaker-cells-and-causes-arrhythmias[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-new-york-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-virus-damages-heart-pacemaker-cells-and-causes-arrhythmias 

and 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/most-who-have-been-exposed-to-the-proteins-of-the-sars-cov-2-virus-will-have-shortened-lifespans-stop-using-fluvoxamine-for-ba-2-infections[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/most-who-have-been-exposed-to-the-proteins-of-the-sars-cov-2-virus-will-have-shortened-lifespans-stop-using-fluvoxamine-for-ba-2-infections 

DJ-Long term health effects of CoViD may be harder to follow...but most likely will be there...But even in the short term China, US, other countries will be hit hard by BA.2 etc...

Josette Schoenmakers

@JosetteSchoenma
 · 
Replying to @JosetteSchoenma @ARGOSamsterdam and 3 others
So, you check for a Spike:S371L mutation to find a BA.1, right? Which is caused by the T22673C mutation. Usually in BA.1/BA.2 recombinants the spike is BA.2. I ran all Dutch 2022 samples through Scarf and found one BA.2 (green) sample with a C there (red). https://twitter.com/Viroloog/status/1476547837425037313?t=Cf71TwmANHgkGvZuH3mVEg&s=19

-

[url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1510300084155695105[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1510300084155695105 

Lots of people doing the best they can may get defunded because "politics/economy" does not want to hear it...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, Ido expect [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth in variants in the present pandemic...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth#Biology[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth#Biology

  • The number of microorganisms in a culture will increase exponentially until an essential nutrient is exhausted, so there is no more of that nutrient for more organisms to grow. Typically the first organism splits into two daughter organisms, who then each split to form four, who split to form eight, and so on. Because exponential growth indicates constant growth rate, it is frequently assumed that exponentially growing cells are at a steady-state. However, cells can grow exponentially at a constant rate while remodeling their metabolism and gene expression.[3]
  • A virus (for example COVID-19, or smallpox) typically will spread exponentially at first, if no artificial immunization is available. Each infected person can infect multiple new people.

DJ, The hope was immunity (via vaccines-at least the idea was it would make a difference...or after infection) would "end" this pandemic...It does not...The virus is that widespread and that much able to mutate it is finding ways around (natural and/or vaccine) immunity....

So we may end up with lots of virusses-able to infect hosts;

-at the same time

-no (effective) immunity against (most) other variants...

-DJ-maybe even worse making the host more vulnerable for all kinds of other diseases...

-Increase of spread in non-human-hosts

-increase of interaction/spread in more species

Is that bad ? YES ! Only nuclear war-in my opinion-is now a larger risk...This healthcrisis now is even more major then climate collapse...

So-it should be top of the global agenda...instead we see yet another major war...propaganda and mass-murder...


What is providing hope ?


-Better vaccines against (more) corona-virus infections...nasal spray-vaccines are on their way..

-Lots of people showing they have more brains than their government...still limiting contacts, using masks...

-Slowly more room to work/study from home...

-Less travel (costs are going up high speed) so less variants flying around the globe...


[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/china-new-subvariant-of-ba-1-1-found-in-suzhou/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/china-new-subvariant-of-ba-1-1-found-in-suzhou/ ;

“The Chinese mainland reported 13,146 local COVID-19 cases on Sunday, including 1,455 confirmed and 11,691 asymptomatic ones, the highest number of daily increase since the latest outbreak, which has already infected over 100,000 people.”

“The high transmission of the Omicron variant is another factor, he said, noting that it accounts for about 80 percent of the recent COVID-19 cases reported in China, with BA.2 and BA.1.1 subvariants being the most prevalent in the country.”

“Suzhou in East China’s Jiangsu Province, which borders Shanghai, discovered a confirmed coronavirus disease patient infected with a mutation VOC/Omicron variant BA.1.1, unidentified in previously found strains worldwide, posing new threats to the already dangerous situation in the region.”

Global Times reports

 

The new iteration of the virus, isolated from a mild Covid-19 patient in a city less than 70 kilometers (43 miles) from Shanghai, evolves from the BA.1.1 branch of the omicron variant, Global Times reported, citing sequencing data from local health authorities. The report said the subtype doesn’t match other coronavirus that’s causing Covid in China nor those submitted to GISAID, where scientists around the world share the coronavirus they sequenced as a way to monitor mutations.

Bloomberg news report

DJ, real number of China daily cases-a lot of them with no or only mild symptoms (and for that reason not "a case" in the Chinese definition...) may be in the hundreds of thousends if not millions...

I do NOT like the sarcasm; [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/great-news-covid-19-hospitalizations-and-deaths-rising-in-united-kingdom-4-9-million-brits-infected-last-week-and-191-mild-deaths-in-last-24-hours[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/great-news-covid-19-hospitalizations-and-deaths-rising-in-united-kingdom-4-9-million-brits-infected-last-week-and-191-mild-deaths-in-last-24-hours but of course bojo simply claiming "there is no pandemic"  when BA.2.1 was hitting the UK is showing 'the leadership we do NOT need"...

This pandemic IS political because the choice to put "economy first" is political...and wrong ! You can not have a good economy without good public healthcare-ignoring a pandemic...Privatizing the NHS will only make matters worse...The UK still close to 1,000 CoViD deaths per week "we have to love with"...

Most of the serious cases and deaths are in the poor...not in government circles in most countries...

And then this [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/vaccine/pfizer-biontech/dr-john-campbell-on-pfizer-deaths-its-a-scandal-on-par-with-watergate/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/vaccine/pfizer-biontech/dr-john-campbell-on-pfizer-deaths-its-a-scandal-on-par-with-watergate/ ..dr. John Campbell showing up on coronaheadsup.com ...

Dr John Campbell on the recent release of documents relating to the Pfizer vaccine showing that there were 1,223 associated deaths in the first three months of use.

DJ march 9 video...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-multisystem-screening-study-finds-sars-cov-2-proliferation-in-neurons-of-the-myenteric-plexus-and-in-megakaryocytes[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-multisystem-screening-study-finds-sars-cov-2-proliferation-in-neurons-of-the-myenteric-plexus-and-in-megakaryocytes again underlining the ammount of damage the virus can do all over the body....

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues more subvariants, recombinations etc....

So [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ only 779,417 new cases being reported, weekly trend -17% and only 1,897 deaths, trend -20% should be very welcome...if they were realistic...And we all know testing is getting harder...reporting is "discouraged"....

[url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN following BA.2 growth in the US...

In case u feel like looking at BA. 2 + Spike L452 mutation 👀 Look at its growth advantage 🔥

DJ, [url]https://twitter.com/Gab_H_R/status/1510772774687674369[/url] or https://twitter.com/Gab_H_R/status/1510772774687674369 showing some of the reactions on that....

Army logistics branch arrived in Shanghai to help implementing lockdowns at communities. This suggests 0COVID policy is here to stay, not only in SH but anywhere else in China. A large quarantine center w private rooms will come online in weeks for 500-700K patients o/s of SH.

DJ, China trying to stick to zero-CoViD even if it will be very hard....(I think there is no alternative..."freedom" simply did bring us out of control exponential growth of the pandemic...it will get very ugly...). 

⚠️WARNING⚠️ 🚨Herd immunity via kids in UK 🇬🇧!🚨 "If child have mild symptoms and they feel well enough, they can go to school" Please, stop mass infections in children!🙏 CC:      

-








Malgorzata (Gosia) Gasperowicz

@GosiaGasperoPhD
 · 
Health Minister of Germany: "In a few years we will see full extent #LongCovid . Now everyone should try to avoid infection. Even if the course is mild, there is a risk that life will change. Nobody likes to hear it, but that's the way it is" #ResistInfection #ResistReinfection twitter.com/Karl_Lauterbac…

DJ.....So we are now in a phase in wich the virus has all chance to go wild and it did...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2022 at 11:06pm

DJ, 

Another climate report-with no new news...we need to do more...but "we" will not do more...The US war with Asia may further escalate...not only in (European) Ukraine stopping Russia as part of Eur-Asian integration, but also wars in Syria, political crisis in Pakistan...(DJ-I hope to find time to look into the Sri Lanka ? "Ceylon" till 1972 crisis). 

The pandemic-as far as not being ignored, censored etc...Most of "the west" now going for "living with it" like "living with climate change"...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ weekend numbers but still-even then-unrealistic..Reported new cases (for sunday) 735,057 trend -18%, 2,453 deaths -18% as well...with lots of BA.2 subvariants increasing around the globe...so "stop testing" will bring "this pandemic under control"....

The weekly trends for new cases still may give some indication on the pandemic. Canada cases +33% (from close to 45,000 to close to 60,000 last 7 days) ...US cases would be -10% ????

Replying to 
BA.2.3.2 (aka B.1.1.529.2.3.2) | Prevalent in #Vietnam #Japan and other countries Key mutations: E:S55F COV-spectrum predicts a global growth advantage of 12% over BA.2 and 64% over BA.1.1 #PANGO designations: https://pango.network/summary-of-designated-omicron-lineages/

and 

BA.2.10.1 (aka B.1.1.529.2.10.1) | Prevalent in #Singapore and other countries Key mutations: S:G798D COV-spectrum predicts a growth advantage of 11% over BA.2 and 43% over BA.1.1 in Singapore #PANGO designations: https://pango.network/summary-of-designated-omicron-lineages/

DJ Simply showing new subvariants (most of them from BA.2) are (re)infecting on a large scale...

Shanghai's caseload alone breaks the all-time high for all of mainland China (13,146 new cases on Sunday). The national update will be released soon.

Is China only reporting "symptomatic cases" a.o. to Worldometers (China cases -5%) ? If South Korea, Hing Kong earlier give some indication China may be seeing maybe 1 million + cases per day...[url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time UK over 4,5 million "active symptomatic cases"...but increase may be going flat...(not -31% yet as trends is showing for the UK...). 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/preprint-100-symptomatic-infection-with-xd-recombinant/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/preprint-100-symptomatic-infection-with-xd-recombinant/ ;

“This recombinant (XD) exhibits immune escape properties similar to Omicron, while its behavior in mice expressing the human ACE2 receptor is more similar to Delta.”

For XD cases: “The median age was 32.5 years (IQR 19.75-44.75), which was similar to Omicron cases (35 years), however, significantly more XD cases were below 20 years of age (25.7%) compared to Omicron cases (11.3%, p= 0.026, Extended Data Fig. 2b).

Only two XD cases reported a previous SARS-CoV-2 infection (5.6%, Table 1), fewer than for Omicron (14%). No XD case was over 70 years old, and no risk factor was reported. Only 6% of recombinant cases were unvaccinated (vs 27% for Omicron cases), and 30% had received three doses (vs 8%), but the overall vaccination coverage of the population was different between the XD and Omicron study periods.

All XD cases reported here from France were symptomatic and most reported symptoms were headache (61.1%), asthenia/fatigue (58.3%), cough (44.4%), fever (38.9%) and myalgia (33.3%, Extended Data Fig. 2b). The main differences compared to Omicron cases were the higher rates of ageusia (odds ratio OR 2.71 [1.064-6.514], p=0.024) and anosmia (OR 1.98 [0.66-5.251], p = 0.18). Two XD cases were hospitalized, one for unrelated causes, but for less than 24h and without intensive care admission.”

“With the XD virus, we did not observe weight loss (in mice) during the first 5 dpi, but all mice deteriorated rapidly between day 5 and 8 and died or had to be euthanized by day 9. Clinical scores followed the same progression and delayed onset in XD- compared with AY.4-infected mice”

Preprint: Rapid characterization of a Delta-Omicron SARS-CoV-2 recombinant detected in Europe

 

** Can we avoid downplaying this variant as “mild” until we have more evidence?  The 100% symptomatic infection rate could mean it is very far from mild despite the lack of hospitalizations and deaths reported in this preprint **

DJ, Most of this recombinant-story from France...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/thailand-first-cases-of-xe-and-xj-recombinants-reported/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/thailand-first-cases-of-xe-and-xj-recombinants-reported/ ;

Thailand has reported its first cases of Omicron XE and XJ.  Both are recombinations of different versions of the Omicron variant. The finding of XE, a mutant hybrid of the BA.1 and BA.2 variants, was reported by the Center for Medical Genomics, Ramathibodi Hospital on Saturday March 2022.

The head of the Centre for Medical Genomics (CMG) at Ramathibodi Hospital, which diagnosed the patient found with the strain, said the individual had already made a full recovery.

Bangkok Times report

 

The Bangkok Times has also reported the first case of the XJ recombinant in the country. The recombinant was first reported in Finland.

Bangkok Times- Delivery man may be infected with new XJ Covid variant 

DJ, Variants now again enjoy more free global air travel....Thailand recombinant story (recombination of recombinations...)

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/otters/spain-sars-cov-2-spillover-infection-into-wild-otters-in-valencia/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/otters/spain-sars-cov-2-spillover-infection-into-wild-otters-in-valencia/ ; “We present evidence of spillover infection of wild mustelids by reporting the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in a Eurasian river otter found near a water reservoir in the Valencian Community, Spain.” Mutations in the sequencing point to human origin of the virus, although their specific combination was unique

Why not ? The virus jumped from humans into otters-resulting in a "unique sequence" (Otter variant...One only can hope it does not spread...). 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/two-new-studies-shows-that-sars-cov-2-is-evolving-rapidly-due-to-human-host-factors,-leading-to-more-genetic-variants[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/two-new-studies-shows-that-sars-cov-2-is-evolving-rapidly-due-to-human-host-factors,-leading-to-more-genetic-variants 

DJ-a virus does not have a "will/brain" however its natural "drive" (as far as I get it) will be to create as many new virusses as it can...

Two major ways;

-Infect as many hosts as possible

-Create as high as possible numbers of virus in a host

The limit is that killing all the hosts at once is the end for the virus...so it will need to "balance"....It also needs to find ways around (natural/vaccine) immunity...Most mutations/recombinations (maybe to be seen as "mega-mutations") will result in a weaker virus...however giving the very high number of hosts and unlimited virus the virus will further develop, go exponential...

One theory I (not an expert at all !) can think of is the "virus developing away from humans"...If it is much easier for a virus to spread in (as example) mice maybe we could be lucky...We get out of the "frontline"...However as far as I get it the virus is "widening" potential hosts, not decreasing them...not specializing at a non-human alternative host...

📍Mass infection spillover—“Chaos” at . Hundreds of flights ✈️have been cancelled or delayed as airlines have been hit by staff absences due to #COVID19. 3 hour queues—some 🛬 flights delayed 24 hours. How is ‘let it rip’ good for economy?!

DJ, The economic "fall out" of this pandemic, limiting Chinese trade, global transport, education etc. will not be stopped by governments decreasing testing and claiming "we have to live with it"...[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/researchers-from-icahn-school-of-medicine-discover-that-pain-conditions-in-long-covid-caused-by-gene-dysregulation-in-dorsal-root-ganglia[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/researchers-from-icahn-school-of-medicine-discover-that-pain-conditions-in-long-covid-caused-by-gene-dysregulation-in-dorsal-root-ganglia 

I think Long CoViD is already a major (but ignored) problem...People getting reinfected-or the virus remaining in the body doing more damage-may see their health only getting worse...

If "politics" answer is starting another global war that is unacceptable...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ,

Sometimes it may be good to look in the mirror and ask yourself if your vision of events-when it is that much different from the general view-is valid.  Since I base my view on sources maybe did I end up in a sort of tunnel vision? 

Three major concerns;

-Climate collapse; that is an easy one...All the world claims to want to stop climate "change"...The IPCC itself keeps repeating we are not doing enough...I do NOT claim to even understand most of the processes, feed backs etc...however lots of scientists go much further in their worries then the IPCC does...[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/ , [url]https://paulbeckwith.net/2022/04/05/new-report-on-climate-mitigation-assessment-report-ar6-by-working-group-wg3-of-the-ipcc/[/url] or https://paulbeckwith.net/2022/04/05/new-report-on-climate-mitigation-assessment-report-ar6-by-working-group-wg3-of-the-ipcc/ 

Picture is quite depressing...

-Global peace [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/if-the-pentagon-can-not-confirm-the-bucha-tales-who-can.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/if-the-pentagon-can-not-confirm-the-bucha-tales-who-can.html , [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B49VvtxgSG4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B49VvtxgSG4 Alexander Mercouris...

We all would agree "there is a major crisis"....

-This pandemic; [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/french-scientist-report-new-sars-cov-2-mixomicron-recombinant-variant-that-evades-existing-qpcr-platforms-could-be-more-transmissible-and-lethal[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/french-scientist-report-new-sars-cov-2-mixomicron-recombinant-variant-that-evades-existing-qpcr-platforms-could-be-more-transmissible-and-lethal, [url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN 

[url]https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/[/url] or https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/ as an extra check ? Their latest "doomsday clock-adres" was from january 20...and it is "very US" no news on US bio-labs in Ukraine...even v.nuland admitting they were there...

So-for now-my conclusion is "I am not insane, the world is" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGEX_7IqaC4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGEX_7IqaC4 "The fool on the hill", very short version...

We are in a downward spiral, a downward vortex, a mega-mix with this pandemic being just one part...Did this pandemic start directly wars...not yet...However China with a locldown in Shanghai is "unwelcome" from an "economic-short term global point of view"...[url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-05/Shanghai-opens-more-temporary-hospital-areas-18ZxblfPEe4/index.html[/url] or https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-05/Shanghai-opens-more-temporary-hospital-areas-18ZxblfPEe4/index.html 

That "economy first" view is dominating both in climate and pandemic discussions...Short term thinking-if there is any thinking at all...

Via [url]https://twitter.com/MarionKoopmans[/url] or https://twitter.com/MarionKoopmans a link to "The Impossible Hamster" (and economic growth) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqz3R1NpXzM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bqz3R1NpXzM  everything has limits...even economies...

This brings me back to politics, "us" supposed to protect future lives, not destroy "our" (???) planet...The "only house" we have...

From a historic point of view we are now at the highest number of humans on this planet ever...almost 8 billion-most of them in Asia...Getting-at least untill recent-older then ever before..in part that is a reason why there are so many people...Maybe if you look at the number of babies born we may have "peaked" allready somewhere between 1860 and 1960-2000 ? 

Relating that to the pandemic, most of the pandemic deaths were over 60...does that make this pandemic "less bad" ? "Those people would have died anyway" may be simply also incorrect...We all die one day but at 60 in most rich countries you may have 15-30 years of life in front of you...

If one would define the "seriousness" of a healthissue in "years of life lost" one could claim the present pandemic-so far-killed more people at an age most of the people in 1918-Spanish Flu-would never reach anyway...

Before mass vaccinations, good sewage systems, anti-biotics etc untill 1900 most people would be "old" at 40...at least that was life expectency..over centuries slowly climbing from 35 to 40...That did change in the 20th century..."Living with the virus" may bring back those days...although the high number of babies dying explained at least in part that low life expectency...

To put it simple-if in a group of 10 people 5 died before getting 1 year old the other 5 would have to get 160 to get the average life expectency at 80....

In history wars also were a "great way" to reduce lifespan...Often men between 18 and 40, sometimes even 10 y/o were "good enough"  did get the job of killing each other for some reason...A lot of those dying died from disease, exhaustion NOT from fighting...But with the men fighting harvest, production was a problem...they could not "combine those jobs" in most cases (The Romans may have been different in that view...)in the "war zone" often also a lot of the local population faced death...(refugees were not welcomed...a big war did mean economic crisis for a larger region=poverty, often starvation-no trade). 

In history wars and pandemics did mix "very good"...The Spanish Flu has to be related to World War 1...although there are different views on who had the first serious form of that flu (US soldiers arriving in France ? Or was there allready a "bad virus" spreading in Austria ?)

Maybe-to end this story-to answer my own question; Am I to pessimistic on the present global situation ? The future may give the real answer...Maybe over 20 years-2042-I would have to admit I am-for now-to pessimistic...It does not go that fast...some crisis stay limited...the virus did get mild...

I hope to find out in 2042 !

End of a reflective part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 2, 

From TMN the French PCR-test-evading recombination...[url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.28.22273010v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.28.22273010v1 ;

ABSTRACT

Among the multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants identified since summer 2020, several have co-circulated, creating opportunities for coinfections and potentially genetic recombinations that are common in coronaviruses. 

Viral recombinants are indeed beginning to be reported more frequently. 

Here, we describe a new SARS-CoV-2 recombinant genome that is mostly that of a Omicron 21L/BA.2 variant but with a 3’ tip originating from a Omicron 21K/BA.1 variant. 

Two such genomes were obtained in our institute from adults sampled in February 2022 in university hospitals of Marseille, southern France, by next-generation sequencing carried out with the Illumina or Nanopore technologies. 

The recombination site was located between nucleotides 26,858-27,382. 

In the two genomic assemblies, mean sequencing depth at mutation-harboring positions was 271 and 1,362 reads and mean prevalence of the majoritary nucleotide was 99.3±2.2% and 98.8±1.6%, respectively. 

Phylogeny generated trees with slightly different topologies according to whether genomes were depleted or not of the 3’ tip. 


This 3’ terminal end brought in the Omicron 21L/BA.2 genome a short transposable element of 41 nucleotides named S2m that is present in most SARS-CoV-2 except a few variants among which the Omicron 21L/BA.2 variant and may be involved in virulence. 


Importantly, this recombinant is not detected by currently used qPCR that screen for variants in routine diagnosis. 


The present observation emphasizes the need to survey closely the genetic pathways of SARS-CoV-2 variability by whole genome sequencing, and it could contribute to gain a better understanding of factors that lead to observed differences between epidemic potentials of the different variants.


DJ-Decrease of testing "because it is mild" is stupidity...A variant that is evading the more easy way of testing is a disaster...So-after not looking for infections we soon may not be able to find them-even if we would like to increase testing...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/usa-biden-white-house-memorandum-on-long-covid/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/usa-biden-white-house-memorandum-on-long-covid/** So good to see the US setting an example for other nations to follow on this critical issue. **

DJ, Making this pandemic a priority by decreasing testing and reporting ? 








-

China reports 20,472 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record

-

Eric Feigl-Ding

@DrEricDing
 · 
I cry for England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿#BA2 hospitalizations have now exceeded old #Omicron’s peak—which were **merely 3 months ago**. So much for stupid mass infection natural herd strategy. This is @borisjohnson & @sajidjavid’s horrible British 🇬🇧 exceptionalism. HT @Antonio_Caramia #COVID19

-[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=GBR&dark=true[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=GBR&dark=true now including more specific BA.2 subvariants...UK BA.2.1 only 2% of all sequences last 60 days ? BA.2.3 at 3%...most still named "BA.2" (59%) BA.1.1 (15%)...

7) Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳�£󠁴󠁿 #COVID19 hospitalizations not doing well either — it has exceeded all time pandemic high!!!


Image

Maybe even worse ;

8) More CRIMINAL neglect by UK govt I’m not providing enough protection against airborne coronavirus, that then resulted in hospital worker deaths!!! Can’t make this up.

and 

Dr Nafeez Ahmed FRSA

@NafeezAhmed
 · 
EXCLUSIVE: Government’s Health and Safety Executive refusing to investigate formal complaint from own advisor alleging 'criminal' healthcare worker deaths due to airborne transmission of COVID-19, documents seen exclusively by @BylineTimes reveal https://bylinetimes.com/2022/04/05/probe-of-criminal-health-worker-deaths-from-airborne-covid-transmission-blocked-by-government/

I admire people still working in health care...caring for people while their government is having "bussiness parties to increase pandemic and war profits"....But "economy first" starts with destroying the public sector...it does not end there...A greed based global economy is a highway to selfdestruction !








China claims only 300 of 17,077 new cases are symptomatic— ➡️ supposedly 98% are asymptomatic!!! Either China is suppressing symptomatic numbers (which they report officially), or #BA2 is HOLY SHIT silently contagious. I don’t know which is worse. 🤔 #COVID19

DJ, China is planning to test ALL 26 million people in Shanghai before ending the lockdown there...but there are limits to even what a "very active" government can do...Given how many countries did see over 100,000 new cases per day  (South Korea, France, Germany still at those high numbers-with a much smaller population and less strict rules) I think China may be over the 100,000 new cases per day...Maybe even over 1 million new cases per day ???

End of part 2 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, 

China is now facing the worst of the pandemic-when one looks at positive tests (most without symptoms yet) and "lockdown/economic consequences". 

Still [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ "only" reporting 1,2 million new cases, trend -22%. There are 3,598 deaths "linked to CoVid" (no doubt excess deaths may give another picture...). 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/terrifying-morbidity-increases-since-covid-vax-introduced-all-vax-d-to-be-dead-by-2025[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/terrifying-morbidity-increases-since-covid-vax-introduced-all-vax-d-to-be-dead-by-2025 DJ-hal turner often "makes his own conclusions" with wich I often do not agree. 

Quick investigation of the Preliminary USA mortality data for 2021 from the CDC reveals:


Total deaths - 3,447,405
Expected deaths - 2,948,273
Excess deaths - 499,132

0% increase = 1X, 100% increase = 2X, 200% increase = 3X, etc. 5000% increase = 51X.

499,132 X 51 = 25,455,732 excess deaths. That is what Attorney Todd Callendar indicates the USA could see ! ! !

Add to that the 2.95 million expected deaths, and the result is:

28,405,732 total deaths for 2022.

DJ, HT is linking increase of deaths with vaccines NOT with CoViD...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/vaccine/pfizer-biontech/dr-john-campbell-on-pfizer-deaths-its-a-scandal-on-par-with-watergate/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/vaccine/pfizer-biontech/dr-john-campbell-on-pfizer-deaths-its-a-scandal-on-par-with-watergate/ vaccines are not free of risks...however the picture I get is in most cases they do offer (at least) some protection against severe disease, long CoViD and even-limited-to spreading "the"virus...

DJ-HT his numbers of 25,4 million extra US deaths are NOT science...There is good monitoring of excess deaths and in most countries those numbers do indicate higher then "normal" number of people dying...Part of it may be (long) CoViD related...The US so far (worldometers) did see over 1 million "CoViD deaths" a lot of long term damage however is missed...so it is not that easy to claim "it is mild"....

But there is no discussion on a need for better vaccines ! As far as I see a lot of agreement on that ! [url]https://tass.com/science/1430829[/url] or https://tass.com/science/1430829 Sputnik in Russia hopes to be using nasal vaccines soon...

Most of the world did NOT use (US) mRNA vaccines (simply to expensive for them). And Russian, Chines, Cuba-Iran vaccines are more "traditional" (adeno-virus, dead viral parts). The US "sanction war against the world" most likely will further decrease the role of (US) mRNA vaccines....(however the mRNA technique will get further development). 

China now at #47 for new cases reporting 1,415 "new cases" -but China only reporting symptomatic cases as a case...(there is no international agreement on "what a case is"...do you go for PCR-tests ? What kind of PCR-tests ? If you include at home testing "lateral flow" -based on what instructions ? Only nasal swab-or also oral swab...Omicron very likely will be missed by nasal swabs often...).

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/01/preventing-lockdown-key-long-term-covid-strategy-ggd-testing-requirement-reduced[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/01/preventing-lockdown-key-long-term-covid-strategy-ggd-testing-requirement-reduced ; The Cabinet of the Netherlands revealed details of its long-term strategy for dealing with the coronavirus. Business sectors are being asked to develop plans for dealing with future outbreaks of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in four different scenarios, from mild to severe. At the same time, it will no longer be considered essential that people with symptoms of Covid-19 visit a GGD center to get tested. Moving forward, healthy lifestyles, fitness, and exercise will be encouraged more frequently, NOS reported.

-

The GGD will continue to offer PCR testing for coronavirus infections, which can be useful for those who need official proof of recovery from the coronavirus infection. The health services will also continue to test people who are more vulnerable members of society, and those unable to use a self-test kit, NOS reported. PCR testing will be scaled up quickly, if an outbreak occurs in the future.

-

The cost of self-tests will not be reimbursed by the Dutch government, NOS reported. The government will issue new advice about what to do when a self-test indicates someone is positive for the coronavirus infection. The Cabinet wants people to continue to follow basic pieces of advice, like remaining home if symptomatic, washing hands frequently, and coughing or sneezing into an elbow

DJ, NL-like many other countries-reducing "offical testing/reporting".  From a "pandemic view" other methods may be more effective. 

-Ad random testing-even people without symptoms-may give more insight in asymptomatic spread

-blood donors see their blood being examed for the virus (very high percentage has antibodies-96% in NL I believe-most because of vaccines)

-Sewage control also may tell more-in an early stage

So there may be even better alternatives to "massive testing" big question is will that be used ? Or does "living with the virus" translate to ignoring it ? 

South Korea still reporting 286,243 new cases -24%, 371 deaths -10%

Germany 204,930 new cases -22%, 333 deaths +15%

France 161,950 new cases -1%, 128 deaths -5%

end of part 1


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ, 

I am NOT a medical expert at all-trying to find out what the (health)risks are...So far statistics gave an "easy indication". [url]https://coronadashboard.government.nl/[/url] or https://coronadashboard.government.nl/ was far from perfect but at least some help....

With less testing, reporting and more variants evading tests (we did see one over a year ago in Finland, now another one showing up in France [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/french-scientist-report-new-sars-cov-2-mixomicron-recombinant-variant-that-evades-existing-qpcr-platforms-could-be-more-transmissible-and-lethal[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/french-scientist-report-new-sars-cov-2-mixomicron-recombinant-variant-that-evades-existing-qpcr-platforms-could-be-more-transmissible-and-lethal ) "statistics" even further decrease in use...lots of spread already was without (much) symptoms...

So-I would like to know how "mild" this pandemic is getting...I think there is no easy answer to that question...Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) for Omicron now to be under the CFR of flu...however we may simply miss a lot from the (longer term) story...Long CoViD in itself also is a major problem ! 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/mutation/preprint-l452r-mutation-increases-omicron-variant-fusogenicity-and-infectivity/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/mutation/preprint-l452r-mutation-increases-omicron-variant-fusogenicity-and-infectivity/ ;

Here, we developed an L452R mutated Omicron variant (Omicron-L452R) and found that the Omicron-L452R variant rescued fusogenicity and strengthened the high infectivity by enhancing the cleavage of the spike protein. Notably, Omicron-L452R greatly enhanced the ability of Omicron to infect lung tissues of humanized ACE2 mice.

Furthermore, the Omicron-L452R variant dramatically enhanced glycolysis in host cells. Our data suggest that the decreased fusogenicity of the Omicron variant is due to a lack of the L452R mutation present in the Delta variant.

Preprint: SARS-CoV-2 spike L452R mutation increases Omicron variant fusogenicity and infectivity as well as host glycolysis

 

DJ;

#OmicronUpdates #NewLineageAlerts  BA.4  alias of BA.1.1.529.4 BA.5  alias of BA.1.1.529.5 BA.2.11 alias of BA.1.1.529.2.11 BA.2.12 alias of BA.1.1.529.2.12 BA.2.12.1 alias of BA.1.1.529.2.12.1 #Pango #Designations

Is this a problem ? Well in combination with this;

Oh wow. Rapid tests only 37% sensitive for Omicron? https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/sciencebrief/use-of-rapid-antigen-tests-during-the-omicron-wave/  Unprecedented evolution.  Was this in the textbook you were citing?


Image
Quote Tweet







segacs

@segacs
 · 
Unpublished data by #Ontario science table: Sensitivity of #rapidtests to #Omicron is 37%, vs 81% for Delta. In other words, LOTS of false negatives. If you have symptoms, assume it's COVID and isolate anyway. https://montrealgazette.com/opinion/columnists/christopher-labos-navigating-false-negatives-on-covid-rapid-tests

It may be even "more then a problem"...we may be without effective testing....

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports

B.1.1.529


DJ Both outbreak.info and [url]https://www.pango.network/summary-of-designated-omicron-lineages/[/url] or https://www.pango.network/summary-of-designated-omicron-lineages/ will see updates soon...

Tracking the rise of BA.2 + S:L452Q in #NewYork  BA.2.3 in #NewYork has picked up S:L452Q mutation (has significant growth advantage over BA.2.3) - 27 sequences BA.2.12 (Spike S704L) has picked up S:L452Q (B.12.1) in #NewYork - 319 sequences 

-

BA.2.12.1 (aka B.1.1.529.2.12.1) | Prevalent in #UnitedStates  Key mutations: Spike S704L, L452Q COV-spectrum predicts a global growth advantage of 32% over BA.2 and 105% over BA.1.1   Mutation spotted by  and others #PANGO issue: #499

So newer variants may spread faster...soon learn if it brings more severe disease (US cases -1%, deaths still -27%)

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2022 at 2:46am

part 3, 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/transmission/research-90-of-sars-cov-2-viral-transmission-is-cell-to-cell/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/transmission/research-90-of-sars-cov-2-viral-transmission-is-cell-to-cell/

“The results indicated that around 90 percent of viral transmission was cell-to-cell, possibly via fusion between neighboring infected and uninfected cells, Liu says. Further in vitro experiments that paired authentic SARS-CoV-2 with either the antiviral medication remdesivir or serum samples from people who received mRNA vaccines hinted that cell-to-cell transmission helped the virus avoid being neutralized by drugs or antibodies. This ability to spread without exiting the intracellular environment could help “lead to persistent or prolonged infection.”

The-Scientist.com article: SARS-CoV-2 Can Spread Via Cell-to-Cell Transmission


DJ Do vaccines/immunity offer protection ? If 90% of the spread in a host you may need a very limited viral load to end up with serious (longer term) disease...At least that is how I read the above...[url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN has lots more...








It's gaining pace. Hospitalizations bottoming now; the positivity rate 4.5% today. The problem with fudging the numbers is it works only in the beginning; once adjustments are baked in, the relative increase is visible again, though from a lower baseline.

BNO Newsroom

@MedrivaNews
 · 
U.S. COVID update: Daily cases rise 7 days in a row, up 8% from last week - New cases: 40,573 - Average: 28,067 (+402) - States reporting: 42/50 - In hospital: 13,663 (+17) - In ICU: 2,043 (-84) - New deaths: 1,065 - Average: 582 (-12) More data: https://newsnodes.com/us

DJ, So for the US worldometers weekly trend still -1% for new cases, BNO already at +8% ? 









Well, recombination could be a mix of both, and coronaviruses are fond of that. The recombinant result could be something that feels "almost" new in effect.

-

A great, reasonable, and as always interesting thread from . We are challenged by two types of pandemics right now. Both emergence & drift are still possible simultaneously. Both need to be confronted.

DJ, CoViD can develop in (lots of) different ways-at the same time...I think "some form of new pandemic" as a result of new variants (either due to mutation, recombination, and/or non-human hosts [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/france-sars-cov-2-detected-in-domestic-rabbits/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/france-sars-cov-2-detected-in-domestic-rabbits/ january 27 ) may be "hard to avoid";

-Vaccines/immunity is getting less and less effective

-Tests may miss most-maybe soon almost all-cases

Further more, my idea of a basic "drift" in virusses is they "want" more of themselves. The reason why there is an end to most peaks in diseases like flu is one can get a "balance" between viral spread and immunity. If enough people/hosts are immune the virus can no longer spread...so cases go down again, maybe the virus going to less then 1% of its highest levels (if it was completely gone we would not see-as example-flu showing up again...

So virusses may want to go for exponential growth but the enviroment is limiting, stopping that...But my major question is-is there some "limit" for CoViD ? Or will it be able to evade those limits the way it has done so far ? 

One "hopium"-ideas is "it will get milder"...however the big question there is why ? The virus needs hosts...but with spread to non-human hosts (including very likely mice) it will not run out of hosts...Worse-more spread may result in more mutations able to spread to even more species....

If severe disease is related to a higher viral load (wich seems to depend on the variant-a high viral load of most Delta subvariants (now 243 sub variants of Delta) may be "worse" then a high viral load of BA.1 Omicron...) and "the virus only drift is to reproduce in any available cell" I do not see any reason for a lower viral load ....

So-my very NON-expert view...again-this pandemic will get worse...

Outside factors as wars, climate change etc. only making matters worse...

But again-hope to be very wrong !

End of part 3 !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2022 at 11:47pm

DJ, 

The power struggle between the US and China on economic dominance is creating global insecurity. I write my opinion on that in latest news...

Here I write my opinion-as a non-expert-on the pandemic mostly...

I am glad to see more activity on this forum. China now has a lot of new cases-with 99-98% being without (clear) symptoms-at least for the short term. Because that for me is now the major question; if (new) Omicron variants behave like a sort of cold-virus...still not very welcome...but without long term healt effects for most one could claim "the pandemic is over" at least for now...

There may be some risks on future variants, unclear also how to balance vaccine/infection risks...Has the vaccine now-maybe for some groups-become a higher risk then catching the virus ? 

Thread on recent developments in SARS-CoV-2 evolution Luckily, due to significant population immunity from vaccination or infection, the emergence of new variants may now have less of a negative impact on global health compared to previously. 1/

-









Replying to 
Let's start with recombinants. High, overlapping prevalences of Delta, BA.1 and BA.2 and dense genomic surveillance have allowed scientists to detect a large number of recombinants around the world. The good news is: none of the recombinants detected seem to be growing fast. 2/

-

Other than a doublet from January in Sweden and a singlet in India there have been no sightings of Delta-BA.2 recombinants The reasons are probably twofold: 1. In most countries, there was never much co-circulation of the two lineages. When BA.2 grew large, Delta was already gone

-

2. The few countries that had significant co-circulation (e.g. India, Philippines) don't sequence all that much compared to the UK/US/Denmark. So even if recombinants existed, it would take a while until we see them in published sequences. 5/

-

The reason most Pango-designated recombinants are from the UK, Denmark and the US is not because recombinants are more common there. It's simply that these countries produce the majority of sequences. Thus, recombinants are detected more quickly and appear larger. 6/

-

Now to the second topic: new Omicron lineages. In the last few days, it was noticed that BA.2* has acquired S:L452 mutations independently a number of times. This position was mutated in the VOCs Delta and Lambda (credits 's CoVariants https://covariants.org/shared-mutations) 11/

-

In contrast to the recombinants some of these lineages seem to have a significant growth advantage over BA.2* For example BA.2.12.1 in the US and Canada (with S:L452Q) of which ~300 sequences have been detected and which now make up ~3% of all BA.2* sequences in North America 12/

-

The biggest surprise has been the recent emergence of BA.4/BA.5, first detected in South Africa and Botswana. Both lineages are very similar to BA.2 but both have 2 reversions with respect to it. Hence it's possible that they have arisen from the same reservoir as BA.1/2/3 

-

It remains to be seen whether the apparent growth advantage as manifested in South Africa will carry over to other regions around the world. Importantly, South Africa has never had a big BA.2 wave. So population immunity may be quite different to e.g. Europe. /18

-

[url]https://twitter.com/CorneliusRoemer/status/1512145094215876608[/url] or https://twitter.com/CorneliusRoemer/status/1512145094215876608 for all of his tweets.

The basic points I like to make;

-limited sequencing outside DK, UK (even the US is limited in sequencing compared to UK, DK)

-Some of high risk countries not only have limited sequencing but also limited/no testing/reporting

-Some new Omicron variants still do increase (a.o. in the US and Canada)

-UK has now a very high number of hospital CoViD cases, also even if 1-in a-1.000 positive tested needed hospital/ICU high spread can cause problems

-Hong Kong, South Korea omicron was NOT mild

-Some groups (children, old age, chronic health issues, pregnant) still run higher risks

-International chaos/wars may further decrease "following this pandemic"

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ still has 63 countries reporting an increase of cases, 42 reporting an increase of deaths. Yesterday we still did see over 1,1 new cases being reported-even with a lot of countries decreasing testing. Still 3,539 deaths reported. Maybe the biggest drop of reporting cases/deaths is coming from the US. But also India's numbers seem very "low/unrealistic". China only reporting the symptomatic cases, China CoViD-death numbers seem "very optimistic" however there is no clear uniform defination used worldwide for "a case" or "a CoViD death", even more division on "long CoViD"...

DJ-Maybe we have been underestimating the damage corona-virusses (even linked with cold) could do. If ME-CFS is related to some form of corona-infection damage it may have been a warningsign not noticed...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/even-mild-and-moderate-sars-cov-2-infections-causes-transcriptional-reprogramming-of-the-host-s-cd14-monocytes-resulting-in-dysfunctional-monocytes[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/even-mild-and-moderate-sars-cov-2-infections-causes-transcriptional-reprogramming-of-the-host-s-cd14-monocytes-resulting-in-dysfunctional-monocytes again warning for the damage CoViD may bring...

Omicron arose from the basal diversity of SARS-CoV-2, not from the most successful lineage at the time, Delta. The next concerning lineage could be equally unpredictable, but that does not mean it definitely will not be descended from Omicron.

DJ, three major "drivers" now in this pandemic, in fact making this pandemic more dangerous;

-Recombination, may so far have resulted in low-spread variants mostly

-Mutations, sublineages of Omicron-BA.3, BA.4, BA.5 still very early

-Non-human spread, mixing with animal virus, mutations/recombinations in animals jumping (back) to people

So-YES !-for now "the pandemic may look mild". But most of it is the result very likely of less reporting-and the epi-center shifting for now to East-Asia. But viral development did NOT stop, this pandemic is still far from over...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues detecting 4 new sub-variants reported last 24 hrs has to be taken serious. 

Also even if a virus does not kill you it may still bring (life)long lasting damage to a high percentage of the population. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 08 2022 at 11:37pm

DJ, 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xe/uk-xe-growth-rate-now-12-6-higher-than-ba-2/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xe/uk-xe-growth-rate-now-12-6-higher-than-ba-2/

“Earlier published growth rates for XE were not significantly different from BA.2, but using the most recent data up to 30 March 2022, XE has a growth rate 12.6% above that of BA.2. Over the most recent 3-week period, XE growth advantage reached 20.9%.”

As of 5 April 2022, there are 1,179 XE sequences in the UK data with 1,125 XE cases in England.

and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/uk-2-7-of-the-british-population-reporting-long-covid-symptoms/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/uk-2-7-of-the-british-population-reporting-long-covid-symptoms/ ;

An estimated 1.7 million people living in private households in the UK (2.7% of the population) were experiencing self-reported long COVID as of 5 March 2022

The estimates presented in this analysis relate to self-reported long COVID, as experienced by study participants who responded to a representative survey, rather than clinically diagnosed ongoing symptomatic COVID-19 or post-COVID-19 syndrome in the full population.

Of people with self-reported long COVID, 422,000 (24%) first had (or suspected they had) COVID-19 less than 12 weeks previously, 1.2 million people (69%) at least 12 weeks previously, 784,000 (45%) at least one year previously and 74,000 (4%) at least two years previously.

Of people with self-reported long COVID, 561,000 (33%) first had (or suspected they had) COVID-19 before Alpha became the main variant; this figure was 253,000 (15%) in the Alpha period, 470,000 (27%) in the Delta period, and 334,000 (19%) in the Omicron period.

Long COVID symptoms adversely affected the day-to-day activities of 1.1 million people (67% of those with self-reported long COVID), with 322,000 (19%) reporting that their ability to undertake their day-to-day activities had been “limited a lot”.

Fatigue continued to be the most common symptom reported as part of individuals’ experience of long COVID (51% of those with self-reported long COVID), followed by shortness of breath (34%), loss of smell (28%), and muscle ache (24%).

As a proportion of the UK population, prevalence of self-reported long COVID was greatest in people aged 35 to 49 years, females, people living in more deprived areas, those working in social care, teaching and education or health care, and those with another activity-limiting health condition or disability.

UK Office for National Statistics: Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK : 7 April 2022

also for the UK [url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time UK cases peaked at 4,6 million people reporting CoViD symptoms early april. 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-debut-of-sars-cov-2-ba-4,-ba-5-variants,-recombinant-xe-variant-and-more-than-34-other-subvariants-heralds-doomsday-scenario[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-debut-of-sars-cov-2-ba-4,-ba-5-variants,-recombinant-xe-variant-and-more-than-34-other-subvariants-heralds-doomsday-scenario 

DJ BA.4, BA.5, XE-recombination, and subvariants BA.2.8 to BA.2.12 now showing up...often "growth advantage" over both BA.1 and BA.2 with BA.2.12.1 called "lethal" (most in US-NY) I can not copy from the TMN article but it has a link a.o. for this New York BA.2.12.1 [url]https://www.cell.com/cell-reports/pdf/S2211-1247(21)01722-8.pdf[/url] or https://www.cell.com/cell-reports/pdf/S2211-1247(21)01722-8.pdf ; In brief Kimura et al. reveal the characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 Lambda variant of interest. Lambda spike is more infectious than that of other variants due to the T76I and L452Q mutations. The RSYLTPGD246-253N mutation is responsible for evasion from neutralizing antibodies and further augments antibody-mediated enhancement of infection.

DJ, that article is from january 11-but describing the kind of mutations now showing up...

However reading the "list" in the https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-debut-of-sars-cov-2-ba-4,-ba-5-variants,-recombinant-xe-variant-and-more-than-34-other-subvariants-heralds-doomsday-scenario article itself is "very alarming"...

DJ-Fits in with "exponential growth - no (immunity) brakes" so we have "a virus" (an ocean full of virusses) developing to its only simple goal-create as much virusses in as many hosts as possible...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xd/france-xd-deltacron-recombinant-update-2/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xd/france-xd-deltacron-recombinant-update-2/ XD-recombination unclear ? 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/mutation/preprint-l452r-mutation-increases-omicron-variant-fusogenicity-and-infectivity/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/mutation/preprint-l452r-mutation-increases-omicron-variant-fusogenicity-and-infectivity/

Here, we developed an L452R mutated Omicron variant (Omicron-L452R) and found that the Omicron-L452R variant rescued fusogenicity and strengthened the high infectivity by enhancing the cleavage of the spike protein. Notably, Omicron-L452R greatly enhanced the ability of Omicron to infect lung tissues of humanized ACE2 mice.

Furthermore, the Omicron-L452R variant dramatically enhanced glycolysis in host cells. Our data suggest that the decreased fusogenicity of the Omicron variant is due to a lack of the L452R mutation present in the Delta variant.

Preprint: SARS-CoV-2 spike L452R mutation increases Omicron variant fusogenicity and infectivity as well as host glycolysis

DJ, Most new cases may look mild with healthissues showing up later...TMN expects excess deaths to go up....

So a look at China [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/china-24000-new-covid-cases-reported-in-new-pandemic-high/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/china-24000-new-covid-cases-reported-in-new-pandemic-high/

China has reported 24,101 new Covid cases on 8th April 2022, with Shanghai accounting for more than 21,000 of those cases. THe figures represent a new pandemic hogh for cases in China.

“Chinese mainland reported 1540 new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases, and 22561 new local asymptomatic cases. Shanghai reported on Friday more than 21,222 COVID-19 positive cases, the first time that the daily new cases in the city surpassed 20,000 in this fresh wave.”

The figures show a doubling rate every four days or so. 

April 7th, 2022: 1284 new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases, and 21711 new local asymptomatic cases

April 6, 2022: 1383 new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases, and 19089 new local asymptomatic cases

April 5, 2022: 1173 new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases, and 15239 new local asymptomatic cases

April 4, 2022: 1366 new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases, and 11771 new local asymptomatic cases

Shanghai has reportedly prepared 130,000 beds for Covid care according to a Channel New Asia report

Global News report

 


 

 

23rd February 2022:

Prediction:  There’s likely a VERY LARGE WAVE BREWING IN ASIA

going draconian in a try to stop the spread...

[url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1512513524538306561[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1512513524538306561

#OmicronUpdates #NewLineagesAlert  BA.x.y.z (alias of BA.1.1.529.x.y.z) BA.2.9.1 BA.2.13   BA.1.14.1   BA.1.14.2 BA.1.15.2 BA.1.20 BA.1.21 BA.1.21.1 Link to #PANGO proposals: http://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues

DJ [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues ................

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ now reporting 35,285 new US cases-trend +4%, 404 deaths still -21%...

Global reported cases-even with testing/reporting decreased still above the 1 million cases. Global weekly trend -22%Deaths 3,634 -11%...also most CoViD deaths will not get reported, maybe not even tested...die later then 4 weeks after a positive test...

[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps however-for a lot of places in Europe no or low excess deaths...NL and Switzerland had "moderate excess" (4-7% above "normal"). 

[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=CHN[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=CHN for China ;

No recent sequences found over the past 60 days

Try adjusting the most recent data window:

most likely BA.2.2 (Hong Kong) variant [url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-07/Chinese-mainland-records-1-323-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-191Vw0KwPbG/index.html[/url] or https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-07/Chinese-mainland-records-1-323-new-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-191Vw0KwPbG/index.html also not helping to find out more on the variants spreading in China (cases +1%)..

Mexico cases +259%...last week 15,572 new cases, last 7 days 55,969 ????deaths still -16%...

End of part 1...maybe I will find time for a part 2...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Part 2, 

DJ-I used to base my writings on statistics...but a lot of countries "did not like the statistics" so dropped testing "saving the economy", going for "viral freedom" ignoring science. 

Corona virusses in (farm)animals are known to be very hard to get under control-usual meaning all possibly animals get killed...The reason why we do not have a vaccine against "colds" is that several virusses can cause a cold and so far finding an effective vaccine doing a good job did not result in such a vaccine...

The present CoViD-vaccines may have limited damage, slowed down the pandemic for a while-but "freedom" did provide "the virus" all the room it needed to develop and spread further, evading immunity...

Variant Of Concern (VOC) "Delta" now stands at 243 subvariants...Omicron now at 54 and "exploding" [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports The recombinant-variants are not (yet) included...








New York state reports 5,904 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 52% from last week. Number in hospital up 19%, reaching 994

DJ  Some indications from the US, UK look alarming...








This shows some of the lower severity seen in the mouse model of BA.1 maps *outside* the Spike protein which is really interesting. Fortunatley (for us) XD appears to mostly have been outcompeted by BA.2, but a similar recombinant arising with a BA.2 spike is a worry.

DJ Scientists trying to follow events, developments...

BA.2.13 (aka B.1.1.529.2.13) | Prevalent in #Belgium  Key mutations: Spike L452M + D936Y COV-spectrum predicts a global growth advantage of 33% over BA.2 and 104% over BA.1.1   

But new findings of variants almost on a daily basis...

Latest info from Mexico march 24-over 2,5 weeks old-with Mexico cases + 259% in the last 7 days [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=MEX[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=MEX BA.1.1 then 59% of last 60 day sequences...but not the reason cases go up this fast...BA.1.15 at 17%, the present increase may have more to do with BA.2.3 here still at 1%..[url]https://mexiconewsdaily.com/category/news/coronavirus/[/url] or https://mexiconewsdaily.com/category/news/coronavirus/ has more info ? [url]https://datos.covid-19.conacyt.mx/[/url] or https://datos.covid-19.conacyt.mx/ limited further info...

BA.2.3 mostly was linked to the Philippines [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2.3&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2.3&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false however is showing a wider spread in SE Asia..could spread (and develop) further in India, Australia if no other subvariants grow even faster...(because it looks like reported BA.2.3 cases are going down now...only 17 out of over 57,000 Mexican sequences tested had this BA.2.3....

BA.4, BA.5 not yet in outbreak.info...most in southern Africa...with limited testing and reporting..

BREAKING—China’s grip on BA2. At least 23 cities in China on full or partial lockdown—cities with over 193 million residents. Food shortages throughout even Shanghai. Doctors and nurses also exhausted—this doctor collapsed, and was carried off by patients at an isolation center.

-

Is Omicron mild? Excess deaths  hit 10-30%, no much lower than previous waves in Western world. Taiwan's govnmnt claimed opening up is "returning to normal". How could excess deaths like that be anything normal?

-

Yet, COVID is tiredless! Look at UK & Germany for repetitive excess deaths!


Image

-









Pro-elite govts make policies to force a return to "normalcy", which is the normalcy of the privileged vs deaths, illness and long covid for the under-privileged, elderly and medically vulnerable. It's political and ideological. It's about whose interest a government prioritises

-

A perfect storm is coming: predicted cases and deaths in Taiwan under various scenarios after opening up: death toll might hit 21,000 and case toll might hit 6 millions, yet test kits and drugs haven't been well prepared!   


Image

Image

2

15

33


DJ Taiwan story link [url]https://twitter.com/ShutiChiou/status/1512375696244371456/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/ShutiChiou/status/1512375696244371456/photo/1 and [url]https://twitter.com/ShutiChiou/status/1512375696244371456/photo/2[/url] or https://twitter.com/ShutiChiou/status/1512375696244371456/photo/2  So my view based on East Asia stories is "it may get ugly" given the variants in the UK, US we may be on our way already...[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=USA_US-NY[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=USA_US-NY march 30 info on New York State-US BA.2.1 at 6%, BA.2.3 at 2%...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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last part of part 2 went missing...[url]https://twitter.com/hashtag/OmicronVariantUpdates?src=hashtag_click[/url] or https://twitter.com/hashtag/OmicronVariantUpdates?src=hashtag_click and [url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN however give a lot of info...

part 3-China

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/shanghai-reports-7th-day-record-cases-viral-video-fatal-dog-beating-provokes-outrage[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/shanghai-reports-7th-day-record-cases-viral-video-fatal-dog-beating-provokes-outrage

The better part of a week has passed since local authorities announced on Monday that they would be extending the lockdown in Shanghai "indefinitely". But despite authorities' best efforts (or perhaps, because of them) COVID case numbers have continued to climb at a record pace, with Shanghai recording another 20K+ COVID cases on Thursday, topping the 20K mark for the second day in a row.

Authorities reported 21,222 new cases in Shanghai alone on Thursday, marking a 7th straight daily record. For context, the city reported more cases on Thursday than the entire country saw earlier in the week.

-

According to the latest developments reported by the SCMP, the city has converted conference centers and public facilities into temporary quarantine and treatment facilities with tens of thousands of bunks, adding to the 77,000 hospital beds already set aside in the city of 25 million residents.

Meanwhile, rumors have emerged on social media - sourced from unwittingly leaked military documents - that the military is taking over the city and that the lockdown will persist at least until May.

-

Should the lockdown persist for the entirety of April, China's GDP could suffer a hit of more than one percentage point, as Goldman analysts determined that every four weeks of lockdown in the city would shave 1 percentage point off the country's GDP, given Shanghai's importance to the Chinese economy.

-

After sending some 40,000 military and medical personnel to the city, the CCP has issued a call to all discharged and available troops from the PLA in a search for volunteers to join the effort to provide food and other supplies - as well as testing and security - to the center.

Beyond Shanghai, China added a total of 24,101 new cases on Friday, including 2,266 infections spotted in northeastern China’s Jilin province, the outbreak's second epicenter.

The city and its residents have already endured four rounds of tests involving every single resident between April 3 and April 7. And on Friday, the fifth round of mass testing began.

-

Finally, after suffering one public outrage after another, Shanghai residents were outraged on Friday after footage of a COVID worker beating a dog to death emerged on social media. The brutal remedy was applied after the dog's owner tested positive for COVID, according to CNN. The beating took place at a residential compound in Pudong on Wednesday. 

Footage of the beating, which is being heavily censored within China, can be found below:

DJ, Not stopping the virus did result in this pandemic (some indications are it may have started mid 2019 in Southern Africa-Angola ???) getting totally out of control-However "stopping it, Zero CoViD" also has its limits...

Early 2020 did see reports of Chinese killing pets...you may ask why pets are treated that different then human hosts are...Why not isolation and testing/study ? Maybe because it is quite impossible to get a grip anyway ? Isolating children-keeping them away from (grand)parents, telling workers "to stay 24/7 on the jobsite" goes "very far"...

7) for example, at 5:05 mark, subtitles suddenly stop and replaced with censorship warnings. But the Shanghainese audio isn’t censored—➡️the caller vents about he now understands why armed revolutions & government overthrow happens when citizen starving. 🇨🇳 censored that haha.

DJ, getting food to close to 100 million Chinese now in lock down is an almost impossible job...The economic consequences will be global and major...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ China cases would be +1% but that is only the symptomatic cases...If the 1,576 new cases are just 1% of any real number China would be at over 150,000 new cases per day...Taiwan cases +125% , however Hong Kong cases -56%

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china-hong-kong-sar/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china-hong-kong-sar/ and [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/ may give some indications for China...

My friend has now tested positive for 7 consecutive days. 💡Did you know—70% of people will continue to test #COVID19 positive on day 5? This is why CDC’s 5-day exit rule without any testing is ludicrous. CDC consulted with experts who told them it’s stupid—CDC did it anyway

-

Ooops, did I just reveal conversations that CDC leadership have with experts but then refused to listen to them anyway? Yes. But is it in the public interest to know such info? Hell yes.

DJ, however tests may miss a lot newer variants...nasal tests simply not enough any longer...

So we are now entering "Pandemic phase 2"...Lots of new variants-most still named "Omicron" because "Omicron" had to be the last variant ending the pandemic...

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-wave-that-never-was-did-israelis-common-sense-help-stop-a-new-covid-spike/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-wave-that-never-was-did-israelis-common-sense-help-stop-a-new-covid-spike/

In March, when case numbers rose again, people didn’t wait for rules, but rather started to take more care; experts say this combined with high immunity levels to reduce infection

DJ Common sense will help...but it has its limits...we need good basics; testing if not persons then at least sewage...Sequencing to find out what mutations are spreading. Checks on animal spread...A total lack of sense of urgency-in a lot of governments-simply means people may self-isolate for years but it will not stop this pandemic...

Maybe wars, climate collapse will stop this pandemic ?

End of part 3

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, I face growing problems with "getting a perspective" due to increase of censorship of my sources...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/bmj-if-we-are-no-longer-following-the-science-what-are-we-following/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/bmj-if-we-are-no-longer-following-the-science-what-are-we-following/

British ministers have now abandoned any pretence that they are “following the science” on Covid-19.

In their minutes from 10 February 2022, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) warned against removing access to free testing as it would make it harder for people to take precautionary measures and increase anxiety among those who are clinically vulnerable.

A consensus statement from SAGE’s modelling group, SPI-M, from 2 February, considered that, “a sudden change, such as an end to testing and isolation, has the scope to lead to a return to rapid epidemic growth.”

And even before these changes are implemented, cases of Covid-19 have been rising steeply, with the most recent data from the Office for National Statistics—which along with the now discontinued REACT study is considered the best source of data on the course of the pandemic—estimating that one in every 16 people in England had Covid-19 in mid March.

More at BMJ Article: If we are no longer “following the science,” what are we following?

Author: Martin McKee, professor of European Public Health

DJ-I hope bojo will not censor the British Medical Journal....[url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/government-funding-announcement[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/government-funding-announcement ; For the last 18 months, the ZOE COVID Study has been funded by the UK Government via UKHSA as one of its key COVID Surveillance Studies. However, from April 2022, the Study will no longer receive this funding.

-

You may remember, the Study was created by ZOE at the start of the COVID crisis and was self-funded for the first six months of its existence. After this time, the UK government recognised the power of the Study and funded us for 18months.

We founded ZOE to take years of gut health research and turn it into a personalised nutrition test and programme that could improve the health of millions of people.

However, now that decision has been made to not grant any more funding, the three co-founders of ZOE: Jonathan, George and Tim, have agreed to keep the Study going for the near future until a longer-term option is secured.

The Study will keep going. It has to. This isn’t just about COVID anymore.

We want to be bold. We believe that what we’ve built together can change healthcare permanently. Not just fighting COVID and the pandemics of the future, but fighting the diseases we’ve accepted as inevitable: Cancer, Heart Disease, Dementia and scores of others.

Crazy is the "new normal"  ...good to see some fight back....

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/superspreader-events/up-to-one-hundred-times-more-super-spreaders-with-omicron/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/superspreader-events/up-to-one-hundred-times-more-super-spreaders-with-omicron/

“A much larger proportion of individuals infected with the new variants are high, very high or super-emitters of airborne viruses: for the original wild type, one in 1,000 infected was a super-emitter; for Delta one in 30; and for Omicron one in 20 or one in 10, depending on the viral load estimate used.

Testing of the effectiveness of protective strategies in view of the lower critical dose suggests that surgical masks are no longer sufficient in most public settings, while correctly fitted FFP2 respirators still provide sufficient protection, except in high aerosol producing situations such as singing or shouting.”

Research: Higher viral load and infectivity increase risk of aerosol transmission for Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 

DJ Good to see FFP-2 masks still offer some protection...avoiding more busy places, limiting social contacts also will limit risks...but after over 2 years of that it only is logical people at risk get fed up...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/09/people-disability-feel-abandoned-cabinet[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/09/people-disability-feel-abandoned-cabinet ;

The Cabinet's new long-term vision for dealing with coronavirus is leaving many people with disabilities or a chronic illness feeling apprehensive, according to Trouw. The virus still poses a major health risk to these groups, but advocates say the government is increasingly framing coronavirus as an "individual problem."

An expert at Ieder(in), a network for people with disabilities or chronic illnesses that collaborates with the Lung Fund and Dutch Patients Federation, expressed disapproval of the new plan. "Too little account is taken of people who are still at risk of health damage from coronavirus," said Illya Soffer, director of Ieder(in).


The new plan comes as mask-wearing is already no longer mandatory in much of the country. On Monday, people who self-test positive for Covid-19 will no longer be required to go to the GGD and their infections will not be registered. The government's tone is also changing as the virus is no longer filling hospital beds.

“What struck me in particular is that the long-term vision talks about 'fear' or about people who 'feel' vulnerable," said Chantal Bleeker, a doctor and infectious diseases professor at Radboud University. "Then you are not taking people seriously –– there are many good reasons why people don't want to get coronavirus."


For people with disabilities or chronic illnesses, the reason could be that their health and quality of life would be severely damaged for weeks or even months, Soffer told Trouw. She suggested solutions such as requiring masks in pharmacies and hospitals, preserving the option to work and take classes from home and encouraging people to take self-tests. The government should also change its messaging and “mention that it is important to continue to protect each other," she said

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_the_Rights_of_Persons_with_Disabilities[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convention_on_the_Rights_of_Persons_with_Disabilities 

The Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities is an international human rights treaty of the United Nations intended to protect the rights and dignity of persons with disabilities. Parties to the Convention are required to promote, protect, and ensure the full enjoyment of human rights by persons with disabilities and ensure that persons with disabilities enjoy full equality under the law. The Convention serves as a major catalyst in the global disability rights movement enabling a shift from viewing persons with disabilities as objects of charity, medical treatment and social protection towards viewing them as full and equal members of society, with human rights.[1][2][3] The Convention was the first U.N. human rights treaty of the twenty-first century.[4]

an  other empty convention...Like "climate change" this "pandemic" has become a "political problem" [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Inconvenient_Truth[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Inconvenient_Truth (see also how ZH denies the climate problem [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/we-are-fast-track-disaster-green-radicals-claim-humanity-has-only-3-years-left-stop-climate[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/we-are-fast-track-disaster-green-radicals-claim-humanity-has-only-3-years-left-stop-climate ..

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba2/canada-ontario-risk-assessment-for-ba-2-to-april-5-2022/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba2/canada-ontario-risk-assessment-for-ba-2-to-april-5-2022/

“Close monitoring of epidemiological trends since March 21, 2022 (date of mask mandate removal) suggests a corresponding temporal association with a subsequent increase in confirmed COVID-19 cases, percent positivity, and hospitalizations.”

Ontario has released a new risk assessment for BA.2.

Key points:


    • BA.2 now more than 50% of sequences in Ontario

    • High viral load may play a role in increased transmissibility of BA.2

    • Due to increased transmissibility of BA.2, the absolute number of severe cases would be expected to increase

    • The number of children with severe disease is likely to increase

    • Masking with high-quality masks at a population level is a public health measure that can be effective at reducing transmission

    • Temporary re-implementation of masking requirements indoors and improved air quality can reduce the risk of in-school transmission

    • Among BA.2 cases from February 20, 2022 to March 19, 2022, the majority occurred in individuals who had completed their vaccination series, i.e. individuals who were post-booster dose (54.8%) or post-series completion (28.5%), followed by unvaccinated individuals (13.3%)

    • Between the week of March 13 to 19, 2022 and the week of March 20 to 26, 2022 the number of reported cases increased 32.1% among healthcare workers.

DJ For what it is worth [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/  North America cases now +17% (!!!) deaths still -16%...

USA cases +1%, deaths -19%...however Canada cases +21%, deaths +18%, Mexico cases +284%, deaths -5%...[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=CAN&dark=true[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=CAN&dark=true latest info march 31. Canada's last 60 days sequences BA.1.1 at 44%, BA.2 at 20% BA.2.3 at 8%...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/who-800-million-covid-infections-in-africa/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/who-800-million-covid-infections-in-africa/

Up to 65% of Africans have been infected by SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19, a World Health Organization (WHO) analysis finds. The study finds that true infections on the continent were 97 times larger than reported confirmed cases.

The analysis, which is available as a pre-print under peer review, synthesized 151 studies published on seroprevalence in Africa between January 2020 and December 2021. It found that exposure to SARS-CoV-2 skyrocketed from 3% (1.0-9.2% range) in June of 2020 to 65% (56.3-73% range) by September of 2021, or 800 million infections compared with 8.2 million cases reported at that time. The study showed that exposure to the virus rose sharply following the emergence of the Beta and the Delta variants.

The analysis revealed that the true number of infections could be as much as 97 times higher than the number of confirmed reported cases. This compares to the global average where true number of infections is 16 times higher than the number of confirmed reported cases.

WHO Africa report

Preprint: SARS-CoV-2 infection in Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis of standardised seroprevalence studies, from January 2020 to December 2021

DJ So 2022 not even in the Africa-WHO-statistics...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/swedish-study-validates-that-post-covid-individuals-are-at-a-higher-risk-for-deep-vein-thrombosis,-pulmonary-embolism-and-bleeding[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/swedish-study-validates-that-post-covid-individuals-are-at-a-higher-risk-for-deep-vein-thrombosis,-pulmonary-embolism-and-bleeding with a link to [url]https://www.bmj.com/content/377/bmj-2021-069590[/url] or https://www.bmj.com/content/377/bmj-2021-069590 ;

Participants 1 057 174 people who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 between 1 February 2020 and 25 May 2021 in Sweden, matched on age, sex, and county of residence to 4 076 342 control participants.

Main outcomes measures Self-controlled case series and conditional Poisson regression were used to determine the incidence rate ratio and risk ratio with corresponding 95% confidence intervals for a first deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, or bleeding event. In the self-controlled case series, the incidence rate ratios for first time outcomes after covid-19 were determined using set time intervals and the spline model. The risk ratios for first time and all events were determined during days 1-30 after covid-19 or index date using the matched cohort study, and adjusting for potential confounders (comorbidities, cancer, surgery, long term anticoagulation treatment, previous venous thromboembolism, or previous bleeding event).

Results Compared with the control period, incidence rate ratios were significantly increased 70 days after covid-19 for deep vein thrombosis, 110 days for pulmonary embolism, and 60 days for bleeding. In particular, incidence rate ratios for a first pulmonary embolism were 36.17 (95% confidence interval 31.55 to 41.47) during the first week after covid-19 and 46.40 (40.61 to 53.02) during the second week. Incidence rate ratios during days 1-30 after covid-19 were 5.90 (5.12 to 6.80) for deep vein thrombosis, 31.59 (27.99 to 35.63) for pulmonary embolism, and 2.48 (2.30 to 2.68) for bleeding. Similarly, the risk ratios during days 1-30 after covid-19 were 4.98 (4.96 to 5.01) for deep vein thrombosis, 33.05 (32.8 to 33.3) for pulmonary embolism, and 1.88 (1.71 to 2.07) for bleeding, after adjusting for the effect of potential confounders. The rate ratios were highest in patients with critical covid-19 and highest during the first pandemic wave in Sweden compared with the second and third waves. In the same period, the absolute risk among patients with covid-19 was 0.039% (401 events) for deep vein thrombosis, 0.17% (1761 events) for pulmonary embolism, and 0.101% (1002 events) for bleeding.

Conclusions The findings of this study suggest that covid-19 is a risk factor for deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, and bleeding. These results could impact recommendations on diagnostic and prophylactic strategies against venous thromboembolism after covid-19.

DJ "Long CoViD" is not (only) a "mental disorder" but a real disease...with depression, PTSD etc on top of it because-for "economic reasons" Long CoViD in many countries simply is denied...

End of part 1...maybe find the courage and news to start part 2 later on...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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part 2,

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues lots of new sub-variants...

U.S. COVID update: Cases rise 10 days in a row, up 19% from last week - New cases: 22,523 - Average: 30,034 (+935) - States reporting: 17/50 - In hospital: 13,542 (-40) - In ICU: 1,986 (-5) - New deaths: 492 - Average: 597 (-2) More data: https://newsnodes.com/us

DJ Worldometer-trends has only +1% for the US...however looking at high increase in both Canada and Mexico even +19% may be at the low end...









Mainland #China reports 1,318 local confirmed cases and 25,037 asymptomatic cases on April 9. #Shanghai reports 1,006 confirmed and 23,937 asymptomatic cases. #Jilin province reports 242 + 755 cases, #Guangzhou reports 10 + 1 cases. Source: NHC http://nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202204/63e96fcb72c041f0b5db313c80107c63.shtml

or

Shanghai reports 24,943 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record, with 26 million people on lockdown

wich number is "the most correct"? Both Hong Kong and South Korea had extreme high numbers..."Zero-CoViD' will have its limits in China...









The US is considering dropping the mask mandate on airplanes on April 18th.  This should not happen.  There is no data to support this decision.  In fact, everything I have seen is just the opposite.  Clearly, passengers are at risk while boarding and exiting.  Stop this!

We should be using masks more...not less ! Both bizare idea's on "freedom" and "economy" ignoring risks on the longer term are now dominant. 








We are only 72 hours and 9 meals away from anarchy. Shanghai lockdown has residents becoming desperate ..

-

15) FOOD PRICE GOUGING—in normal times, these veggies would cost 20-30 RMBs. This guy charges 100 RMBs plus 200 RMB delivery fee—300 RMBs—so a ~10x cost increase for food, assuming you can even get delivery. That’s not sustainable for 26 million people.

It soon will be a global problem...not only a Chinese one...

DJ-The global crises are increasing. [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/global-warming-and-the-fermi-paradox.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/global-warming-and-the-fermi-paradox.html .... I think risks of (nuclear) war have become "major"...this pandemic is [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/04/articles/animals/cats/should-we-vaccinate-animals-against-sars-cov-2/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/04/articles/animals/cats/should-we-vaccinate-animals-against-sars-cov-2/ now "very hard to control"...

Stay informed, safe and sane...DJ

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 11 2022 at 12:15am

DJ, 

Present dominant position in the world on this pandemic; economic costs for stopping CoViD are higher then the damage it is doing. The put it more direct; Most of the people dying from CoViD cost money..."the old and sick"...(I do NOT agree with such a-short term-choice...but it would explain "living with a dangerous virus"motto now dominant...)

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ "only 640,000 new cases" -24%...A.o. NL stopped weekend reporting...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/zero-covid-policies-are-stupid-and-now-redundant-considering-the-kinetics-of-the-pandemic-china-is-an-example-effective-antivirals-are-desperately-nee[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/zero-covid-policies-are-stupid-and-now-redundant-considering-the-kinetics-of-the-pandemic-china-is-an-example-effective-antivirals-are-desperately-nee ded...

China still sticking to "Zero CoViD" [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/we-are-starving-death-shanghai-residents-under-lockdown-shout-visiting-vice-premier[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/we-are-starving-death-shanghai-residents-under-lockdown-shout-visiting-vice-premier and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/china-omicron-subvariant-detected-in-beijing/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/china-omicron-subvariant-detected-in-beijing/ 

DJ-This may be a theory getting confronted with practice...In theory trying to limit the spread as best you can, in practice there are limits...

I think good masks still can help, good info on the risks is essential...testing in person can be replaced by sewage-testing...May even provide better early signals...

Nasal spray-vaccines look promissing but vaccines will have limits as well...








Mainland #China reports 1,164 local confirmed cases and 26,345 asymptomatic cases on April 10. #Shanghai reports 914 confirmed and 25,173 asymptomatic cases. #Jilin province reports 187 + 797 cases, #Guangzhou reports 18 + 9 cases. Source: CCTV, NHC

DJ, I think China may have over 100,000+ cases per day...Is the China government "lying/downplaying" the pandemic...very likely...but so do most other countries. (And if you claim China has "better liars" , lying a "political necessity"-one may in fact be claiming China has better liars=China has better "leaders"...). 

China is not the only country going for sort of Zero Covid...I believe also a.o. Vietnam may be following that road...Maybe also a note...lots of "countries we keep poor" hardly have a population of "older 60+ people"...Only "rich countries" can afford to have a large group of people "not being productive"...

But after more then two years in this pandemic-I only can agree with Thailand Medical News-better anti-virals have become urgent...I still avoid crowds, limit contacts, mask in public spaces...and hope that decreases risks...

U.S. COVID update: New cases up 50% from last Sunday - New cases: 10,557 - Average: 30,538 (+504) - States reporting: 6/50 - In hospital: 13,334 (-208) - In ICU: 1,961 (-25) - New deaths: 12 - Average: 595 (-2) More data: https://newsnodes.com/us

DJ [url]https://newsnodes.com/us[/url] or https://newsnodes.com/us has US cases +10,1%...worldometers puts it (based on CDC) -5%...The US is facing new BA.2 sub variants

Replying to 
oh those lost souls that still don't get that you catch this over and over again..

and 

Tracking #BA2 #Subvariant in the #UnitedStates | 04/10/22 11:45 PM   Total BA.2 sequences count: 34,239 <-- Tracker now includes BA.2, BA.2.1, BA.2.2 and BA.2.3 Check your State/other stats: http://tinyurl.com/2bkzcbj9  #SARSCoV2 #Omicron

DJ-So cases in the US most likely are going up...Canada +21%, Mexico +271%...the US is not an island...statistics may reflect more testing then cases...North America cases +12%-rest of global regions cases now going down (even if China  now -16%, would report a more realistic number Asia cases -27% most the result of cases going down in South Korea, Hong Kong after extreme high numbers there...India numbers even more unrealistic then those of China...) 

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 12 2022 at 12:46am

DJ, 

Limited "new news"; [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/preprint/bmj-one-hour-longer-sleep-at-night-associated-with-12-lower-odds-of-covid-19/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/preprint/bmj-one-hour-longer-sleep-at-night-associated-with-12-lower-odds-of-covid-19/

“Among 2884 exposed HCWs, there were 568 COVID-19 cases and 2316 controls. After adjusting for confounders, 1-hour longer sleep duration at night was associated with 12% lower odds of COVID-19 (p=0.003). Daytime napping hours was associated with 6% higher odds, but the association varied by countries, with a non-significant inverse association in Spain. Compared with having no sleep problems, having three sleep problems was associated with 88% greater odds of COVID-19.”

BMJ: COVID-19 illness in relation to sleep and burnout

DJ Some people simply need more sleep then others do...in some countries a sleep, power nap is more common in some countries, groups then others...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/university-college-london-ucl-study-reveals-that-eyewear-significantly-helps-reduce-risk-of-covid-19-infection[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/university-college-london-ucl-study-reveals-that-eyewear-significantly-helps-reduce-risk-of-covid-19-infection ...YES virusses can enter the body via the eye...[url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.29.22272997v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.29.22272997v1 for that matter is not that new...

U.S. COVID update: Daily cases rise 12 days in a row, up 31% from last week - New cases: 34,644 - Average: 31,227 (+689) - States reporting: 29/50 - In hospital: 13,229 (-105) - In ICU: 1,987 (+26) - New deaths: 295 - Average: 568 (-27) More data: https://newsnodes.com/us

and 








Los Angeles County reports 2,875 new coronavirus cases for a 3-day period, up 20% from last week

may be more relevant info...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ reporting US (CDC reported) cases +0,9%....Yesterday global cases would be -24%, now -22%...but reporting/statistics is "a sad joke"...India only reporting 796 new cases yesterday...totally non-sense...

Worldometer has China cases -19%. DJ that may be the "symptomatic cases"....

Math quiz : if the frequency of long covid is 20% after the first infection and does not decline after each reinfection , in how many years will every single individual in the population will experience longcovid assuming "natural boosting" every 3 months or so ?

-

You can play with this in any online calculator of your choice (or even Excel). Even if #LongCovid develops in 5% (a gross underestimate), after 3 years of "natural boosting" every 4 months (the live with covid strategy), ~37% of the population will have experienced longcovid

DJ...on the longer term Long CoViD may the main pandemic problem....

Forever Covid is *forever*. It's not 3 years' Covid. It's *forever*. So even if you use a lower LC rate, you should always compute the effects over decades. That's why Forever Covid people never give an estimate, not even with a very low LC rate.

Is another factor...Looking at ME-CFS lots of people NEVER recover..."Long CoViD" could become a problem for decades...most of all for the people that suffer from it, and their families...but also "the economy" now being "saved" by dropping restrictions is closing its eyes for the long term damage and costs...

With very likely newer-worse-variants on their way because we did not stop this pandemic when we could...

Starting a global war is not the right solution !


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Denmark🇩🇰 has had 9 weeks of consecutive excess mortality since its Freedom Day🏳️ 9 straight weeks of excess mortality. What is going on here? Could masks or isolation prevented the excess deaths? https://ssi.dk/sygdomme-beredskab-og-forskning/sygdomsovervaagning/d/overvaagning-af-doedelighed


Image


DJ To get a view on the pandemic we now have to fall back on other statistics...even if we do not like the picture it gives...

Yaneer Bar-Yam

@yaneerbaryam
 · 
Next question: What are the airlines doing to check the "brain fog" of pilots and recertifying or decertifying them after they have covid? Is the FAA requiring this?

DJ, with limited testing and no/mild initial symptoms the "Long CoViD" problem is becoming more dominant. In the US some universties going back to mask-mandates...

MaskTogetherAmerica

@TogetherWeMask
 · 
In the U.S., outbreaks at @Georgetown and @JohnsHopkins are bringing back mask requirements to those campuses. Just to be safe, as of April 11, @Columbia is also requiring non-cloth masks in classroom. Mask with Us. @CDCDirector @POTUS

again underlining a total lack of science/strategy...politics are supposed to serve the public ! Brain-fog in traffic is a risk ! 









GISAID has a new tag "#MM" with description: This submission needs further investigation! Too many mutations (>3.5x median number of mutations based on sequences collected in the last 3 months) are found in this sequence Could be #artefacts  Guess how many mutations?

link [url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1514070151397793796/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1514070151397793796/photo/1 DJ-Not very clear how many mutations but the length between 29,638 and 29,812 could be an indication for "a lot of mutations"....[url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1514075980301799424/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1514075980301799424/photo/1 indicating between 72 and 111 mutations...

Love the QC feature in #Nextclade (https://clades.nextstrain.org) QC results : Bad sequences will update if anything changes!

DJ, The first mention of Deltacron from Cyprus was also seen as "bad quality sample"...by now we may have lots of all kinds of recombinations...I think the virus is going "exponential" wich may translate in also variants with a higher number of mutations may be able to see some spread...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/555[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/555 ; BA.2 sequences with additional mutation S:A27P (nuc G21641A) have appeared mostly in Washington State, USA with the first sequence 2022-02-07 and the most recent sequence from 2022-03-23. On Cov-Spectrum at the time of issue creation, 112 sequences show lineage BA.2 with 34 additional BA.2.3 and 1 additional BA.2.2 showing this mutation. Of the strictly-BA.2 sequences, 106 are from Washington State, 5 are from Finland, and 1 is from Denmark. Of the broader BA.2* set, 32 are from Washington State and 3 are from Finland.

is just one indication. [url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN very active-good info (most on US spread). I do NOT have the knowledge to say much further on it...

Wanted to add details about F486V mutation in the new BA.4 and BA.5 lineages of #Omicron (see nice thread by  below). F486V could lead to more antibody escape from serum elicited by current vaccines / early infections. (1/n)
Quote Tweet







Tulio de Oliveira

@Tuliodna
 · 
BA.4 and BA.5 share a similar spike profile as BA.2, except for additional mutations: 69-70del, L452R, F486V. Reversion to wild type: Q493 (Q493R in BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3)
Show this thread


Image

DJ If BA.4 and BA.5 (both most detected in Southern Africa) are better in evading (vaccine) immunity is is yet another warning-simply being ignored...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports now has 54 sub-variants of Omicron however BA.2.12.1, BA.4, BA.5 a.o still not included...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/12/covid-hospital-total-31-two-weeks-infections-10000-fourth-day[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/12/covid-hospital-total-31-two-weeks-infections-10000-fourth-day

Hospitals in the Netherlands were treating 1,423 patients with Covid-19 on Tuesday afternoon. That was 18 percent than the previous week, and 31 percent lower from the total reported on March 29. On that date, 2,056 people with the disease were in treatment, the second peak of the Omicron infection wave.

The patient total on Tuesday afternoon fell by 51 since Monday, after accounting for new admissions, discharges and deaths. There were 94 Covid-19 patients in intensive care units, a net increase of eight. However, Monday’s tally of 86 was the lowest reported in nearly nine months. The other 1,329 patients were in regular care wards, a net decrease of 59.

DJ, When one looks back at the history of this pandemic and where we are now I think it is more realistic to claim-in many places-this pandemic "is having a break" ...NOT that the pandemic is over ! [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ even with bad testing/sequencing 50 countries report an increase of cases. The US +0,1% and many other countries simply may miss most of the spread...If CoViD=a cold that should not be a problem however excess death numbers, long CoViD indicate it is much worse then a cold ! 









CDC confirms 3.5 million Americans died in 2021, making it the deadliest year in U.S. history. 416,000 people died of COVID-19, the 3rd leading cause of death

In comparison, Influenza has caused between 12,000 to 52,000 deaths annually in the past decade. #CovidIsNotTheFlu

-

⚠️DEATHS UP—In just 1 week, #COVID19 deaths spiked ⬆️45% in England. “Hospitals & ambulance services facing extreme pressures & high staff absences, forcing some to declare critical incidents & to warn of 12 hour waits in 🏥 ERs”. #CovidIsNotOver  https://bmj.com/content/377/bmj.o950

A look at China ;

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 13 2022 at 12:03am

Okay then...part 2 China;

Let this sink in— U.S. State Department now orders the departure of all “ non-emergency U.S. government employees and all family from the Shanghai Consulate due to a surge in #COVID19 & [impact of] restrictions." ➡️This follows crisis with getting enough food for even US Marines.

link [url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1513685603199631361/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1513685603199631361/photo/1 

and 

5) if you still don’t think the Shanghai food crisis is real… let this sink in — even millionaires in Shanghai who own grocery stores can’t get bread or mild without asking for help on WeChat.


see also [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEdNIJ45WT8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEdNIJ45WT8 WION from India; The Covid-19 pandemic slowly seems to be waning as several countries have reported a massive slump in new infections but covid cases in china's financial capital shanghai have made the world wary of letting their guards down. In the latest, the US has now ordered all non-essential employees in Shanghai's consulate to evacuate the cities.

DJ Some of the problems related to drivers refusing to go to Shanghai...Zero-Covid with tens of millions in China in lockdown is "very hard if not impossible"...

6) “all but 13 of China’s top 100 cities by gross domestic product had imposed some level of quarantine restriction. Official data states nearly 500,000 people are under medical observation.”

DJ I think China may have "millions of active cases" however a lot of them may be "mild" but still may spread the virus and face serious health problems later on. 

Public support may be "under pressure" when "health care workers" kill pets, separate children from their family...So China has to find a compromise here. China cases -18% (worldometers) may only reflect symptomatic cases...It may be hard to get even realistic statistics...Most likely the BA.2.2 (Hong Kong) variant is spreading in China. Vaccination may limit disease better in China-Hong Kong did see limited number of vulnerables being vaccinated...

In the more rural area's spread to animals may be a risk. Also some risk in cross border contacts with Laos, Vietnam, Pakistan.

DJ-This pandemic now "major" in North America (cases +14%) and in China...but no doubt-with more air travel-no masks this pandemic is far from over ! 

Vaccines (also non-mRNA), masks, limiting contacts all will help-even if governments/"economy" spreads other info...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 13 2022 at 11:35pm

DJ, Are 'let the virus do its thing", "living with it" related to a western political elite supporting a fascist regime in Ukraine, support for bolsenaro in Brazil ? I think they are...

Most of those suffering, dying, from CoViD are not part of that "western political/media elite"...That elite is using crises for profit...either war for profit or pandemic for profit...Profit even more important then dealing with climate change...[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/global-warming-and-the-fermi-paradox.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/global-warming-and-the-fermi-paradox.html

According to Fermi’s Paradox, the failure to date to achieve radio communication between Earth and extraterrestrial civilizations can be attributed to their inevitable short-term self-destruction, a consequence of uncontrolled dispersion of toxic substances, contamination of air, water and land, and construction of deadly weapons. On Earth this includes saturation of the atmosphere by greenhouse gases and production of nuclear weapons. 

The most extensive mass extinction event in the history of Earth, represented by the Permian-Triassic boundary 251 million years-ago, involved warming, acidification and oxygen depletion of the oceans, with consequent emanations of toxic H₂S and CH₄, leading to a loss of some 57% of biological families, 83% of genera and 81% of marine species.

If the history of the 21st century is ever written it would report that, while large parts of the planet were becoming uninhabitable, the extreme rate and scale of global warming and the migration of climate zones (~100 km per decade), the extent of polar ice melting, ocean warming and acidification, and methane release from permafrost, threatened to develop into one of the most extensive mass extinction events in the geological history of planet Earth.

As concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases exceed 500 ppm CO₂-equivalents, consistent with global warming of more than >4°C (image above right), driving temperatures to well above 4°C (image below) and threatening to rise at a higher rate than those of the great mass extinctions. 

Climate scientists have been either silenced or replaced by an army of economists and politicians mostly ignorant of the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere, but quantifying the cost-benefit economies of mitigation like corner shop grocers.

Proposed mitigation action were mostly focused on reduction of emissions, neglecting the amplifying feedbacks and tipping points projected by leading climate scientists such as James Hansen (image right).

But climate change was not the only threat hanging over the head of humanity and nature. As nations kept proliferating atomic weapons, with time the probability of a nuclear war increased exponentially. 

At the root of the MAD (mutual assured destruction) policy, or omnicide, resides the deep tribalism and herd mentality of the species, hinging on race, religion, ideology, territorial claims and the concept of an “enemy” perpetrated by demagogues and warmongers, leading to an Orwellian 1984 world where “Oceania has always been at war with East-Asia”, as in the current “forever wars“. Prior to World War I two social forces collided, fascism and socialism. While the former has changed appearances, the latter weakened. At the core of superpower conflict between the Anglo-Saxon world and the Slavic or Chinese worlds are claims of moral superiority, but in reality naked grabs for power.

At the centre of human conscience is its mythological nature, a mindset closely related to the mastery of fire where, for longer than one million years, Homo erectus, perched at campfire, watching the flickering flames, has grown its insights and imagination, developing a fear of death, dreaming of omniscience and omnipotence, aspiring for eternal life.

As civilization developed in the Neolithic these sentiments drove humans to construct pyramids to enshrine immortality, undertake human sacrifice, to perpetrate death to appease the gods, expressed in modern times through world wars, as stated by Albert Einstein: “The splitting of the atom has changed everything bar man’s way of thinking and thus we drift into unparalleled catastrophes”.

For an intelligent species to be able to explore the solar system planets but fail to protect its own home planet defies explanation. For a species to magnify its entropic effect on nature by orders of magnitude, developing cerebral powers which allow it to become the intelligent eyes through which the Universe explores itself, hints at yet unknown natural laws which underlie life, consciousness and complexity.

We have entered the age of consequences, masked by the 24 hours news cycle that can only portray transient events but rarely exposes the Orwellian misconceptions which underlie the complicity of the powers-that-be. For, just as individuals can be plagued by insanity, so can groups of people, as in the Jonestown massacre, or in Nazi Germany, where a nation or a species slide blindly into mass suicide, creating systems that saturate the atmosphere with carbon gases and proliferate nuclear weapons in a terrestrial confirmation of Fermi’s Paradox.

A/Prof. Andrew Glikson

Earth and Paleo-climate scientist
School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences
The University of New South Wales,
Kensington NSW 2052 Australia

DJ, Are 'humans self destructive" ? No-a political elite is killing us...putting "economy=profit first" even when that means this pandemic getting worse, climate change getting worse, NATO openly supporting nazi's....

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xj/italy-two-cases-of-xj-recombinant-confirmed-in-reggio-calabria/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xj/italy-two-cases-of-xj-recombinant-confirmed-in-reggio-calabria/

“A new variant of Omicron, called XJ was isolated for the first time in Italy from a laboratory in Reggio Calabria.

XJ was isolated from the laboratory of the provincial health authority of Reggio Calabria, directed by Maria Teresa Fiorillo, in two cases of coronavirus positive subjects, and the results were sent to the Higher Institute of Health (Iss) which validated them.

XJ is a recombination of the Omicron sub-variants BA.1 and BA.2 and so far was known only for a limited number of cases recorded at the end of last March in Finland.”

RAInews.it report

BNO/Medriva Newsroom

@medriva
 · 
U.S. COVID update: New cases continue to rise, up 54% from last week - New cases: 75,559 - Average: 35,864 (+4,959) - States reporting: 43/50 - In hospital: 13,438 (-100) - In ICU: 1,910 (-58) - New deaths: 860 - Average: 518 (-33) More data: https://newsnodes.com/us

-

#NewYork State Department of Health Announces Emergence of Recently Identified, Highly Contagious Omicron Subvariants (BA.2.12 & BA.2.12.1) in New York and Urges Continued Vigilance Against #COVID19 https://health.ny.gov/press/releases/2022/2022-04-13_covid-19.htm |  

Also [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-u-s-nih-study-reveals-weak-antibody-response-following-ba-2-infection,-paving-the-way-for-extended-community-circulation-due-to-reinfections[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-u-s-nih-study-reveals-weak-antibody-response-following-ba-2-infection,-paving-the-way-for-extended-community-circulation-due-to-reinfections 

And... boom! The 7-day average positivity rate... 4.64%. Irregular reporting leads to backlogs which are causing havoc on numbers... when & whether to include them in totals & averages.

DJ In the UK "bojo is playing with the numbers' 

Some might say by Date Reported is unrepresentative, and by Date of Death doesn't look so steep? Those are constantly backfilled. Give them time to catch-up. "The daily change includes newly reported deaths, plus adjustments to previously reported deaths, which may be negative."

A lot of countries now see increased excess deaths...and also de-funding independent research/reporting...

So do the Ukraine-biden-war, climate collapse and this ongoing pandemic have things in common ? 

Denial may be top of the list....inconvenient truths both bad for advertising and votes...so an increase of censorship and less reporting...

Democracy becoming democrazy...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 14 2022 at 1:30am

part 2...

DJ-I am NOT neutral, objective, an expert but I do see this pandemic is hitting some much harder then others...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/945977-cidrap-pandemic-cut-us-life-span-almost-2-years-more-than-any-peer-nation[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/945977-cidrap-pandemic-cut-us-life-span-almost-2-years-more-than-any-peer-nation ;

Life expectancy in the United States declined 1.87 years from 2019 to after the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, more than any of 21 other high-income countries—with greater losses in Hispanic and Black populations, according to a modeling study published today in JAMA Network Open.
Researchers from Virginia Commonwealth University estimated life expectancy in the United States and 21 peer countries using a simulation of life tables based on national death and population data in 2019 and 2020. Life expectancy reflects how long a group of people can expect to live were they to experience at each age the age-specific mortality rates of that year, the study authors noted.
Peer countries were Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, England and Wales combined, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway, Portugal, Scotland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and Taiwan.

Hispanic, Black people, men hit hardest

Over the study period, Americans' overall life expectancy fell, on average, 1.87 years, with greater decreases in Hispanic (-3.70 years) and Black (-3.22) compared with White (-1.38) populations. Overall life expectancy fell from 78.86 to 76.99 years, with a greater decline among males (-2.13 years) than females (-1.51 years). Life expectancy among Black populations dropped from 74.76 to 71.54 years, while it dipped from 81.86 to 78.16 years in Hispanic populations.
The largest decreases in life expectancy were among Hispanic (-4.31 years) and Black (-3.54) men, compared with -1.53 years in White men.
In contrast, life expectancy declined by an average of 0.58 years in all peer countries, with no country seeing such large declines as those in the United States. In 2020, average life expectancy in these countries was 81.50 years, 4.51 years more than in the United States (76.99 years). Losses in life expectancy ranged from -1.43 years in Spain to increases in New Zealand, South Korea, and Taiwan. No changes were seen in Denmark, Finland, and Norway.
Countries with the largest losses in life expectancy among females were Spain (-1.34 years), England and Wales (-1.07), and Belgium (-1.06). Among males, the greatest declines were in Spain (-1.44 years), England and Wales (-1.38), and Italy (-1.31).

Inequities 'will persist without corrective action'

Starting in the 1980s, US life expectancy started rising slower than in other high-income countries, leveling off after 2010, the study authors noted.
"The downward trends in US life expectancy since 2010 reflect increasing death rates among young and middle-aged adults, including higher cause-specific death rates from drug overdoses, cardiometabolic diseases (eg, obesity and diabetes), and other chronic diseases," they wrote.
Relative to peer countries, the researchers said, the United States has poorer social and economic conditions (eg, education, poverty, income inequality, affordable housing), health-promoting environments and infrastructure (walkability, public transit, access to healthy food), social well-being (eg, racial segregation, social isolation), and access to healthcare and health insurance.
"In contrast to policies adopted by its peers, US social welfare spending is less equitable and less beneficial to children and families," the authors wrote. "The US also lacks universal health care and provides weaker protections for public health and safety."
In addition to entering the pandemic in a relatively weak state, the United States also was affected by the mismanagement of federal, state, and local pandemic responses, public resistance to public health measures to prevent viral transmission, and high numbers of excess deaths due to healthcare disruptions, the researchers said.
"The large and highly racialized decreases in US life expectancy underscore the growing US health disadvantage relative to peer countries and the need for policies that prioritize health and equity," they wrote. "The decrease in US life expectancy was experienced disproportionately by Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black populations, consistent with a larger history of racial and ethnic health inequities resulting from policies of exclusion and systemic racism."
The researchers called for the creation of policies to address the systemic causes of the discrepancy in life expectancy between the United States and peer countries, as well as persistent racial health inequities.
"Until final death counts for 2021 are released, it remains unclear if the large decreases in US life expectancy documented here extended into 2021," the authors wrote. "However, even with a return to prepandemic mortality rates, the US health disadvantage that has grown over decades will persist without corrective action."
"US residents will continue to die at higher rates than their counterparts in other advanced democracies, and their health will remain sharply divided along racial and ethnic lines, until the country makes policy choices that optimize health, well-being, and equity," they added.

So [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/13/emergency-rooms-pressure-due-many-patients-staff-shortages[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/13/emergency-rooms-pressure-due-many-patients-staff-shortages and [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/14/health-ministry-tried-alter-outbreak-team-advice-multiple-times[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/14/health-ministry-tried-alter-outbreak-team-advice-multiple-times 

DJ-This pandemic is the outcome of political choices...Not stopping international flights-for the economy-did see global waves...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chris-hedges-pimps-war[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chris-hedges-pimps-war ;


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Chris Hedges: The Pimps Of War

Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, APR 14, 2022 - 03:00 AM

Authored by Chris Hedges via Consortium News,

The same cabal of warmongering pundits, foreign policy specialists and government officials, year after year, debacle after debacle, smugly dodge responsibility for the military fiascos they orchestrate. They are protean, shifting adroitly with the political winds, moving from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party and then back again, mutating from cold warriors to neocons to liberal interventionists. Pseudo intellectuals, they exude a cloying Ivy League snobbery as they sell perpetual fear, perpetual war and a racist worldview, where the lesser breeds of the earth only understand violence.


They are pimps of war, puppets of the Pentagon, a state within a state, and the defense contractors who lavishly fund their think tanks — Project for the New American Century, American Enterprise Institute, Foreign Policy Initiative, Institute for the Study of War, Atlantic Council and Brookings Institute. Like some mutant strain of an antibiotic-resistant bacteria, they cannot be vanquished. It does not matter how wrong they are, how absurd their theories, how many times they lie or denigrate other cultures and societies as uncivilized or how many murderous military interventions go bad. They are immovable props, the parasitic mandarins of power that are vomited up in the dying days of any empire, including that of the U.S., leaping from one self-defeating catastrophe to the next.

I spent 20 years as a foreign correspondent reporting on the suffering, misery, and murderous rampages these shills for war engineered and funded. My first encounter with them was in Central America. Elliot Abrams — convicted of providing misleading testimony to Congress on the Iran-Contra Affair and later pardoned by President George H.W. Bush so he could return to government to sell us the Iraq War — and Robert Kagan, director of the State Department’s public diplomacy office for Latin America — were propagandists for the brutal military regimes in El Salvador and Guatemala, as well as the rapists and homicidal thugs that made up the rogue Contra forces fighting the Sandinista government in Nicaragua, which they illegally funded. Their job was to discredit our reporting.

-

“It is true that acting firmly in 2008 or 2014 would have meant risking conflict,” Robert Kagan wrote in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, lamenting our refusal to militarily confront Russia earlier. He wrote:

“But Washington is risking conflict now; Russia’s ambitions have created an inherently dangerous situation. It is better for the United States to risk confrontation with belligerent powers when they are in the early stages of ambition and expansion, not after they have already consolidated substantial gains. Russia may possess a fearful nuclear arsenal, but the risk of Moscow using it is not higher now than it would have been in 2008 or 2014, if the West had intervened then. And it has always been extraordinarily small: Putin was never going to obtain his objectives by destroying himself and his country, along with much of the rest of the world.”

In short, don’t worry about going to war with Russia, Putin won’t use the bomb.

I do not know if these people are stupid or cynical or both. They are lavishly funded by the war industry. They are never dropped from the networks for their repeated idiocy. They rotate in and out of power, parked in places like The Council on Foreign Relations or The Brookings Institute, before being called back into government. They are as welcome in the Obama or Biden White House as the Bush White House.

The Cold War, for them, never ended. The world remains binary, us and them, good and evil. They are never held accountable. When one military intervention goes up in flames, they are ready to promote the next. These Dr. Strangeloves, if we don’t stop them, will terminate life as we know it on the planet.

*  *  *

Chris Hedges is a Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist who was a foreign correspondent for 15 years for The New York Times, where he served as the Middle East bureau chief and Balkan bureau chief for the paper. He previously worked overseas for The Dallas Morning News, The Christian Science Monitor and NPR.  He is the host of show The Chris Hedges Report.

Author’s Note to Readers: There is now no way left for me to continue to write a weekly column for ScheerPost and produce my weekly television show without your help. The walls are closing in, with startling rapidity, on independent journalism, with the elites, including the Democratic Party elites, clamoring for more and more censorship. Bob Scheer, who runs ScheerPost on a shoestring budget, and I will not waiver in our commitment to independent and honest journalism, and we will never put ScheerPost behind a paywall, charge a subscription for it, sell your data or accept advertising. Please, if you can, sign up at chrishedges.substack.com so I can continue to post my Monday column on ScheerPost and produce my weekly television show, The Chris Hedges Report.

This column is from Scheerpost, for which Chris Hedges writes a regular column. Click here to sign up for email alerts.

The views expressed are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of Consortium News.

DJ Crazy is a new normal....ignoring the pandemic-to save the economy-will result in even further worsening of this pandemic...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 3, 

UK - Vertical Death Curve 💀 _ H/T 


Image

DJ, not yet censored or behind a pay-wall. Privatizing public (paid !) info goes against basic democracy...[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/majority-brits-say-johnson-should-go[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/political/majority-brits-say-johnson-should-go

57 percent of the public believe UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson should resign, according to a snap poll carried out by YouGov on April 12, the day he was found to have broken the law over ‘partygate.’

As Statista's Anna Fleck reports, Johnson is the first ever UK prime minister to be caught breaking the law while in office.

Antonio Caramia

@Antonio_Caramia
 · 
#Covid_19 deaths UK 🇬🇧 🔥1,951 in the last 7 days 🔥+63.4% than 7 days ago! Where is #herdimmunity?

What kind of "leaders" or "countries" see themselves as "exceptional" ? Being above any (international) law ? Like in climate collapse-in this pandemic-we have a "government" not serving the general public but a rich elite...(for that matter we are back to 1776, 1789...).

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#page-top[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#page-top now has 57 countries reporting an increase of cases...US +10% (-28% for CoViD deaths...but the excess number is more interesting...The definition of CoViD-deaths has become much harder...may take months-not 28 days after a positive test!)

The UK BA.2 wave has now surpassed BA.1 in hospitalizations & deaths, while cases are lower due to reduced (and/or reported) testing. So, cases underreported, or severity increased, or a different (older) subgroup infected. Anyway, no more hospitalization rate charts in media.

DJ [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator/status/1514322256339611653/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator/status/1514322256339611653/photo/1 

Will further escalation of the biden-war against Asia...not only Putin- result in LESS reporting, LESS care, MORE censorship, ? YES-It is already happening !

Eric Feigl-Ding

@DrEricDing
 · 
DIVERGING WASTEWATER vs CASE NUMBERS—the @BiobotAnalytics dashboard shows wastewater #SARSCoV2 increasing, but case numbers not tracking in parallel. #COVID19 case reporting is notoriously abysmal now. Trust the sewage—poop doesn’t lie. 

[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1512632915838087172/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1512632915838087172/photo/1 









Burning corn (food) as ethanol increases food prices and has much more impact on food than on fuel. This has been analyzed, it is the wrong way to go. More links in following tweets 1/ How Biden is trying to lower fuel prices — with corn

[url]https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/04/12/biden-gas-prices-ethanol/[/url] or https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/04/12/biden-gas-prices-ethanol/ 

Selling more corn-based ethanol may mildly ease pain at the pump. But the move may also increase pollution.

DJ-Insanity rules...in Europe "the greens" want to boycot Russian energy by using more coal or US-LNG....both much more damaging for the enviroment...Climate change, airpolution is already a major problem making this pandemic (much) worse...

End of an angry part 3 !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ,

Trying to get a realistic picture on the (not over) pandemic. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ reporting just under 950,000 new cases...-20%, 3,393 deaths -14%....India would only have 949 new cases....Most countries almost stopped testing/reporting -from that perspective these numbers are still high...

Of the regions North America cases +13% is the exception. South America -9%, Asia -27%....but again these statistics are hardly usefull even for indication use...

US cases +17%, Canada +6%, Mexico +58%...still may indicate the "peak" of cases moved from East Asia to North America. Japan however also still +6%, China +4%, Taiwan +104%, Philippines -19%...Saudi Arabia +10%...The main reason why "Asia" did see such a big drop in cases is they did have very high numbers both in South Korea and Hong Kong...

Most of Asia [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/shanghai-police-telling-citizens-protesting-lockdown-we-are-going-to-have-a-war-with-america[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/shanghai-police-telling-citizens-protesting-lockdown-we-are-going-to-have-a-war-with-america is preparing for "other storms"...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/category/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/category/coronavirus/ has not been updated since april 11. 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-sars-cov-2-dysregulates-one-carbon-metabolism-in-human-host-with-implications-for-various-long-term-diseases-n-acetyl-cysteine-helps[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-sars-cov-2-dysregulates-one-carbon-metabolism-in-human-host-with-implications-for-various-long-term-diseases-n-acetyl-cysteine-helps referring to another study on Long CoViD, link ; [url]https://www.mdpi.com/1422-0067/23/8/4181[/url] or https://www.mdpi.com/1422-0067/23/8/4181 ;

Dysregulation of one-carbon metabolism affects a wide range of biological processes and is associated with a number of diseases, including cardiovascular disease, dementia, neural tube defects, and cancer. Accumulating evidence suggests that one-carbon metabolism plays an important role in COVID-19. 

The symptoms of long COVID-19 are similar to those presented by subjects suffering from vitamin B12 deficiency (pernicious anemia). 

The metabolism of a cell infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus is reshaped to fulfill the need for massive viral RNA synthesis, which requires de novo purine biosynthesis involving folate and one-carbon metabolism. 

Many aspects of host sulfur amino acid metabolism, particularly glutathione metabolism underlying antioxidant defenses, are also taken over by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. 

The purpose of this review is to summarize recent findings related to one-carbon metabolism and sulfur metabolites in COVID-19 and discuss how they inform strategies to combat the disease. View Full-Text

DJ, cells get hijacked by the virus to produce more virus...some "supplements" NAC's would help ? (I am not an expert-I stay away, far away from telling others what to use...the TMN-article may provide info one could use in talks with a medical person, or study yourself. My goal is to get a "helicopter view" of the pandemic...Hope there are some effective treatments...The closest to a "medical advice" I want to come is try not to get infected...). 

For the other CoViD news I have to fall back on twitter-and its links. BA.4 BA.5 subvariants of Omicron made the news...and trends may indicate some African countries may see more cases...Africa trend -10% still-testing was already very limited...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/who-800-million-covid-infections-in-africa/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/who-800-million-covid-infections-in-africa/ WHO comes to 800 million cases, worldometer only did get less the 12 million of them reported...

#OmicronUpdates #NewLineageAlerts  BA.1.1.17  --prevalent in #UnitedStates BA.1.16.2  -- prevalent in #Greece  BA.2.14 -- prevalent in #Denmark BA.2.15  -- prevalent in #SouthAfrica BA.2.16  -- prevalent in #UnitedKingdom  PANGO issues: #452, #512, #533, #534

DJ [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports only has 54 subvariants of Omicron...(not even starting on recombinations...simply not in that list). 

So for Mexico, latest info from march 28-of the last 60 days sequences (so from end of january to end of march) BA.1.1 would be 60%, in last days BA.1.15 did reach 16%

For the US-latest info here april 2-BA.1.1 was 50%, BA.2 (now dominant) 16%...BA.1.15 at 8% (would not be surprised if most of that was near the Mexican border)...

This info may-related to statistics-give some indication on what damage a subvariant in some region may do...I think vaccines in Mexico may be even a bigger problem then they are in the US...Did vaccines "limit damage" in NW Europe ? Indications (a.o. from the UK) are-NO...lack of reporting may have been a bigger factor...Also indications on excess deaths (a.o. from Denmark) indicate excess deaths still above "normal"...only people do "not die within 4 weeks after a positive CoViD test"...some never did get tested...Others died from "unclear CoViD-linked symptoms", hearthproblems etc...

A snapshot of #COVID19 #Cases #hospitalizations and #Deaths  1.Get #Boosted ASAP! 2.#Ventilate Rooms w/ high occupancy 3.Strongly recommend NPIs in congregate settings if % of confirmed cases compared to pre-Omicron Peak is steadily increasing in your state.

link [url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1514826980939685893/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1514826980939685893/photo/1 (?)

End of part 1

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~Albert Einstein
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Part 2,









U.S. COVID update: Daily cases rise 15 days in a row - New cases: 45,143 - Average: 37,617 (+1,753) - States reporting: 32/50 - In hospital: 13,406 (-32) - In ICU: 1,878 (-32) - New deaths: 521 - Average: 486 (-32) More data: https://newsnodes.com/us

-

New York state reports 7,219 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase since February. Number in hospital up 25% since last week, reaching 1,186

So US cases going up in many States, with healthcare exhausted...hardly any NPI remaining...

I don't understand why is the flu vaccine labeled as a complete failure, while SARS2 vaccines like an outstanding success. When looking at current UK efficacy vs. symptomatic disease for #Omicron, the results are pretty much the same. Both are mismatched and wane quickly.

-

Austin R. Manny 🇺🇦

@microcryologist
 · 
CDC just published their findings of how effective this past year’s influenza vaccine was For Influenza A overall (the most common): 14% effective.

DJ-Maybe include vaccines in a larger-wider strategy ? Maybe a bit simple but 14% still better then 0% or even a negative link (getting vaccinated would increase infection risks via ADE ???). To put this all in perspective; vaccines were pushed to "save the economy", reopening, end-of-lockdown...even when vaccine producers never claimed the vaccines-on their own-would/could end this pandemic....There were warnings-from the start (a.o. from Israel) that booster-vaccines had their limit (first vaccine may do "100%" of what one could expect from a far from perfect vaccine, the second 50%, third 25%. fourth 12,5%...so-yes there was an end to what vaccines could provide...Was it only used to buy time ?)

UKHSA vaccine surveillance report Booster efficacy against symptomatic Covid drops to ZERO after 20 weeks? H/T   _ Link:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1069256/Vaccine_surveillance_report_-_week_15.pdf

DJ-Is the hard, bitter conclusion "vaccines can NOT save us"????? May only have a limited effect in combination with lots of other measures...but "saving the economy (=tax payers having to pay for shares the rich want to get rid of...)" did get priority over global public health ? 

YES-The "powers that be" went for greed...not public health...The outcome;

Variants accelerating, as expected, score card: From Omicron subvariants: BA.1, BA.1.1, and BA.2 Now: XD and XF hybrids of Delta and BA.1 XE  hybrid of Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 BA.4, BA.5 = BA.2 + important mutations BA.2.12.1 and BA2.12.2 and... 1/

A link to [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth ; The growth of a bacterial colony is often used to illustrate it. One bacterium splits itself into two, each of which splits itself resulting in four, then eight, 16, 32, and so on. The rate of increase keeps increasing because it is proportional to the ever-increasing number of bacteria. Growth like this is observed in real-life activity or phenomena, such as the spread of virus infection, the growth of debt due to compound interest, and the spread of viral videos. In real cases, initial exponential growth often does not last forever, instead slowing down eventually due to upper limits caused by external factors and turning into logistic growth.

DJ, The limiting factor for viral exponential growth may be the number of potential hosts...Vaccines did "buy some time"...but CoViD now is also widespread in non-human hosts...If we are very, very lucky CoViD may enjoy non human hosts more then human ones...killing a lot of mice..not us...and NOT jump back from mice to humans...

So folks have been comparing the weird  morning show interview with the climate activist in the UK with *that* scene from #DontLookUp. So we at the  put them side by side & the results are.. astounding. Reality mirroring art!

DJ, "we just keep the bad news light"; Ukraine now has cheap holliday offerings-a good idea ? What is the best time to plan your next CoViD-booster-infection ? 

If main stream media care more for advertisments then about their job...the level of lies spread by "journalists" in wars, climate change, pandemics is shocking...

Stupid will kill us all...end of part 2....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ, A critical look at Dr. John Campbell; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unL7XuPnPIc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unL7XuPnPIc ;

Recently Identified, Highly Contagious Omicron Subvariants New York State Department of Health https://www.health.ny.gov/press/relea... https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/... Emergence of Recently Identified, Highly Contagious Omicron Subvariants in New York Wadsworth Center Identifies Two Sub-lineages of BA.2 BA.2.12 23% growth advantage above the original BA.2 variant. BA.2.12.1 27% growth advantage above the original BA.2 variant. Potentially Contributing to Increased Transmission Reported in Central New York and Surrounding Regions BA.2, now 80.6% of infections in New York During March BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1 rose to 70% prevalence in Central New York Data for April Levels in Central New York are now above 90% At this time, there is no evidence of increased disease severity by these subvariants

Kirsten St. George, NY virologist BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1 40 other countries 30 states across the United States NY city Cases, + 2,104 ( 7 day average) Up 60% (past 14 days) Deaths, down 9% (past 14 days) US Cases, + 22% Deaths, down 27% Hospitalized, down 13%

DJ, [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-more-ba-2-subvariants-with-the-concerning-mutations-l452q-or-l452r-that-increases-fusogenicity-and-infectivity-are-emerging-and-spreading-glob[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-more-ba-2-subvariants-with-the-concerning-mutations-l452q-or-l452r-that-increases-fusogenicity-and-infectivity-are-emerging-and-spreading-glob ally

TMN has been warning for new subvariants of BA.2 for some time. One major problem is deaths often may not be linked any more with a previous CoViD infection-sometimes months earlier...So Dr.J.C. comment "number of deaths going down" is unrealistic since BA.2.12/BA.2.12.1 only recently started to increase in the US (most). 

Another point is-yes BA.2.12 (1) is getting dominant in the US-but may not be the next dominant global sub-variant. There are simply so many recombination/sub variants around...I expect Europe will see another wave in 2-3 months but it will be not the same subvariant the US is facing now. 

The basic problem is a mutation at position 452 from "L" to "Q" or "R" and that mutation is now also being detected (TMN claim) in lots of European and African countries (including also in the BA.4 and BA.5 new Omicron sub-variants).  Resulting-TMN claim-in more severe disease and death...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ has now "limited use" because of lack of testing and reporting...still 50 countries reporting an increase of cases may give some indication. US cases-here-+14%, deaths (still) -32% but the excess number may give a total different picture...

#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 24.52% BA.2, 16.93% BA.2.9, 10.82% BA.2.12, 10.61% BA.1.1, 9.74% BA.2.10, 9.65% BA.2.12.1, 9.03% BA.2.3, and 2.01% BA.2.7 Tracker (by State): http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7

link; [url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1515166966058786825/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1515166966058786825/photo/1 may give more info on the US situation. 

Quite important this Tweet. L452R was a bad mutation in Delta. It is antibody evasive. Omicron didn't have it. Until now. In the past few weeks we have seen THREE separate sublineages of BA.2 emerge each with a different AA mutation at site 452. Independantly.

and 









Just an ordinary textbook virus, ha? When attacked by monoclonal, but not killed entirely, it switched to E484T to escape. Then, when no longer needed, it just lost it.

in a 

First and most importantly, our study documents what may be the longest known SARS-CoV-2 infection. Lasting more than a year and a half, the infection persisted because the patient is severely immunocompromised, leaving their immune system unable to fight off the virus.


DJ, In fact describing the virus is able to "mutate in a patient" in reaction to treatment !!! DJ, it is an intelligent virus with " [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stealth_technology[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stealth_technology  " spreading most without early symptoms but able to create lots of damage later on all over the body...

DJ-This is an ugly monster-virus ! We need a united world to deal with it...but we are close to global war...Insane !

End of part 1

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part 2, 

Can we "live with the virus"? DJ-"Can we live with climate "change" being in fact climate collapse ? Well-we do now live with "climate change" and "the virus"...

Replying to 
Yes, likely. But, the speed & efficiency by which SARS2 is doing it is remarkable. It mutates just perfect enough to escape & replicate. Severity is a gamble & a side product, but seeing this, there's zero chance there won't be other massive waves by whatever-called variants.

DJ, the short answer is NO we can not live with this virus ! 

Next question is can we "still control the monster"? Zero-CoViD in China is becoming almost impossible [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shanghai-outraged-latest-preventable-deaths-caused-ccp-lockdown-policy[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shanghai-outraged-latest-preventable-deaths-caused-ccp-lockdown-policy The US is attacking China Zero-CoViD most for economic reasons...fooling itself the US is now "post pandemic" by no longer testing/reporting a lot of cases...

Crazy the new normal...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/bmj-if-we-are-no-longer-following-the-science-what-are-we-following/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/bmj-if-we-are-no-longer-following-the-science-what-are-we-following/ (to link to corona headsup-not being updated since april 11). 

This pandemic is dealt with in the same way climate collapse is ignored...anti-science propaganda...

Haseltine, once more. "One of the critical symptoms of #SARS2 infection is lymphopenia... in which patients exhibit reduced levels of white blood cells... natural killer, T & B cells. When any of these are reduced, it can inhibit our body’s ability to protect itself from viruses.

May explain why we can not live with the virus ! Like "climate change" the virus will kill us in the end !

Replying to 
BA.4 & 5 are not more infectious-they have an immune escape advantage & so will cause wave of reinfections. Their growth rate advantage over BA.2 is similar to the advantage that Delta had over Alpha. Severity prob less due to higher population immunity...

and 

Tom Wenseleers

@TWenseleers
 · 
The logistic growth rate advantage of BA.4 and BA.5 relative to BA.2 is 0.11 [0.09-0.14] 95% CLs and 0.13 [0.09-0.17] per day, which is somewhat higher than the growth rate advantage of BA.2 over original Omicron BA.1 in SA, 0.079 [0.075-0.082] per day.

DJ So will BA.2.12.(1), BA.4, BA.5 or another become global within a few months ? 

How many variants are possible? The number of different mutation combinations is ~4^10,000 4^10 is 1 million 4^20 is 1,000,000,000,000 4^40 is 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 4^100 has 60 zeros 4^200 has 120 zeros 4^1,000 has 600 zeros

End of part 2, I will try to find out more.a.o about China later on in part 3. Are we close to global war because of an out of control pandemic that is being denied ? Or is out of control climate "change" also a major factor ? 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 16 2022 at 2:30am

part 3 China

worldometer has China cases +24%  weekly trend. 13,176 last 7 days, 10,589 the week before. No deaths reported. 

[url]https://www.livemint.com/news/world/china-covid-variants-and-omicron-xe-put-fresh-focus-on-virus-mutations-read-here-11649064285086.html[/url] or https://www.livemint.com/news/world/china-covid-variants-and-omicron-xe-put-fresh-focus-on-virus-mutations-read-here-11649064285086.html

China’s Disclosures

China’s recent disclosures on novel variants come at a very early stage of spread, making it hard to know how significant the findings are.

Officials in the eastern Chinese city Suzhou, about 110 kilometers from Shanghai, reported an infection with an omicron subvariant derived from BA.1 over the weekend. It didn’t match any existing sequences in China or in the international database for viral sequences known as GISAID. It was found in a patient with a mild case of Covid, the city’s health authorities said.

A second infection found in the northeastern city of Dalian was caused by a BA.2 subvariant that doesn’t match any sequences of domestic or imported cases in the country so far. It was found in a fashion store clerk who was selling clothes imported from South Korea. Close to 400 close contacts were tested. All were negative. 

DJ-article is from april 4...[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=HKG[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=HKG Hong Kong had 97% BA.2.2 subvariant in last 60 day sequences...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china-hong-kong-sar/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china-hong-kong-sar/ gives an indication of the explosion of cases and deaths that did bring. South Korea [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=KOR&dark=true[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=KOR&dark=true latest info from march 9 ??? Had BA.2.3 at 26%, BA.2.12 at 5%, BA.2.10 at 3%...

Of course Shanghai is a major seaport and may import lots of different variants...

I'm going to have another stab at explaining why many Chinese are looking at Shanghai in mostly the same way as foreigners (a colossal fuckup to avoid) and coming to pro-COVID-Zero rather than against conclusions. This is how the rest of China handled the recent Omicron surge:

DJ link ;[url]https://twitter.com/RealSexyCyborg/status/1514818345689776143/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/RealSexyCyborg/status/1514818345689776143/photo/1 (and further-may have to enlarge it...)

In a propaganda war on Zero CoViD [url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-16/How-I-spend-my-day-in-Shanghai-s-temporary-hospital-19hlW22x5kY/index.html[/url] or https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-16/How-I-spend-my-day-in-Shanghai-s-temporary-hospital-19hlW22x5kY/index.html ; Kaili is a COVID-19 asymptomatic patient who is staying in a temporary hospital in Shanghai. In this video, she shows how she usually spends her day in the temporary hospital.

DJ Also "lots of volunteers willing to help" etc...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/945683-china-officials-killing-pets-of-people-sent-to-quarantine-hospitals-lockdown-distress-building-in-shanghai[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/945683-china-officials-killing-pets-of-people-sent-to-quarantine-hospitals-lockdown-distress-building-in-shanghai killing pets, separating children from their family simply goes to far. Uou need public support if you want strict Non Pharma Interventions..

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shanghai-outraged-latest-preventable-deaths-caused-ccp-lockdown-policy[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shanghai-outraged-latest-preventable-deaths-caused-ccp-lockdown-policy

According to the SCMP, Qian Wenxiong, a cadre with the city’s Hongkou District Health Commission, died on Tuesday afternoon, according to a statement published on an official Weibo account on Thursday. He was 55.

Information on social media included a story that was nothing short of heart-wrenching.

Father of a 5yr old and stable cancer patient died after suddenly feeling discomfort at home. He was told his covid test from yesterday was invalid.
His last words on earth? Mom, can you check if my new Covid test has come out?
2hrs after he left, his Covid test came bk negative pic.twitter.com/hYQFN3etI4

— JinJin Xu (@jinxshoe) April 15, 2022

Meanwhile, as they try to loosen lockdown measures in Shanghai (at least when it comes to factories and other economically important areas), authorities announced Friday that restrictions are being reimposed in Xi'an, known for being the epicenter of the previous omicron wave.

-

Now in its third week (for a lockdown that was only supposed to last 9 days), the Shanghai lockdown has inspired some of the most heated anti-government criticism in years, which has spilled out onto Weibo despite the government's efforts to censor it. The latest trending post to get censored features an 82-year-old man pleading for medication with a local party official, who said he could only offer traditional Chinese remedies.

Even the party official acknowledged that he was "very worried".

"I’m also very worried about the people seeking help," the party official said in the recording. "I’m also very angry but there’s nothing we can do."

Although food shortages have eased in some places and protests remain rare (although they have happened), the simmering rage is palpable, especially in Shanghai, as tens of thousands of social media users pass around stories about acts of individual defiance and reports of suicides on Weibo and WeChat.

-

The government reported 29,411 new cases on Thursday, and all but 3,020 were asymptomatic. Shanghai accounted for 95% of that total, or 27,719 cases. All but 2,573 had no symptoms.

More Chinese are worried about the lockdowns spreading, especially as economists from Nomura warn that the CCP's COVID measures could disrupt the upcoming harvest, jeopardizing the food supply for China's 1.4 billion people.

As one Shanghaier told Bloomberg, it's not so much the CCP's strict policy that has elicited rage, but the poor implementation of it.

"The gripes among ordinary people are not so much directed toward Covid Zero as it is about the messy implementation,” Huang Yanzhong, a senior fellow for global health at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations.

Still, for residents like Irene Li, the damage is lasting.

"Shanghai was the best place in China because of her freedom, her modernization, her internationalization," she said. "And yet it has turned to this, where one ridiculous policy has harmed so many lives."

In Shanghai, the government has piled pressure on grassroots leaders and police officers to strictly enforce the lockdown, which has led to incidences of police killing pets who have been suspected of COVID exposure (for example, if their owners tested positive).

Meanwhile, the top policy makers at the PBOC are resorting to more monetary easing to try and cushion the economic blowback. Unfortunately, measures like this won't help grow crops.

DJ-Tens-of-millions in lock downs and need of supplies...[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/zero-covid-policies-are-stupid-and-now-redundant-considering-the-kinetics-of-the-pandemic-china-is-an-example-effective-antivirals-are-desperately-nee[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/zero-covid-policies-are-stupid-and-now-redundant-considering-the-kinetics-of-the-pandemic-china-is-an-example-effective-antivirals-are-desperately-nee ded...

"Let the virus do its thing" may bring another very serious wave in the US soon, other places within some months...Strict lockdowns become impossible...DJ-And I do not have any answer on what would be wise now....

Better testing, anti-virals etc. masks may help...I hope...again I am not an expert...trying to learn more myself...

for now end of part 3

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 16 2022 at 9:37pm

-Religion is not my thing-still enjoy the extra long weekend ! Enjoy the good things of life !-

DJ, 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/china-50-sars-cov-2-sequences-uploaded-to-gisaid/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/china-50-sars-cov-2-sequences-uploaded-to-gisaid/ ;

Gisaid have published a report recently on fifty SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences uploaded by China which seems to have gone largely unnoticed by the mainstream media. The report sheds a bit more light on what might be happening in China, not just in Shanghai, but across the entire country.

The report outlines some of the SARS-CoV-2 variants the Chinese are currently tackling, and there are certainly some surprises in the list.

“Six genomes were assigned as Delta (from four distinct lineages), and 44 genomes were assigned as Omicron (from seven distinct lineages). No highly divergent new variants were found.”

That’s probably a higher percentage of Delta sequences than many might have imagined, and mirrors the situation in Great Britain early in the new year of 2022, after which a number of Omicron & Delta (Deltacron) recombinants were discovered.

The creation of Deltacron variants through recombination could become a problem with this mix of lineages circulating. That may be one of the reasons why the Chinese CDC published a paper on this very subject recently, which we covered in this post: China CDC: Deltacron is a “Grey Rhino” event.

“Searching the 50 new hCoV-19 genome sequences with GISAID’s AudacityInstant against the 10.2 million genomes in the EpiCoV database found a total of 14,176 closely related genomes. The graphic below shows the distribution of countries of the closest hits of which the dark blue bars correspond to identical sequence hits from abroad and possible transmission links”:

 

 

The two most common lineages in the sequences are BA.2 and BA.2.2, and it is perhaps the latter of the two that could potentially be the more troubling, because BA.2.2 is the lineage that caused so many infections and deaths amongst the elderly population of Hong Kong recently.

We covered BA.2.2 in the following posts:

Hong Kong: Omicron BA.2 with S:I1221T mutation at 100% of recent sequences *6 UPDATES*

Hong Kong: Omicron BA.2 with S:I1221T mutation designated BA.2.2

 

 

The full Gisaid report on the Chinese sequences can be found here

 

Our opinion: Uploading 50 SARS-CoV-2 sequences is a good start, but the scientific community could do with thousands more sequences from China to be able to predict where this virus is headed with any degree of accuracy. The virus is the only winner if genome sequences aren’t shared. 

I was wondering what was happening in China-good to see they now share some info ! DJ, As expected Hong Kong and South Korea are the two major factors-but 6 out of 50 sequences still Delta is a lot more then one would expect ! 

worldometers has China cases +60% (last 7 days 15,722-the week before 9,810). Still no new deaths reported. Both Hong Kong and South Korea did see a lot of people dying from BA.2.2 and some other variants (South Korea BA.2.3). 

-The US is hit hard again;

Cases are rising rapidly & the shift to at home testing has camouflaged the actual burden of COVID in the US. If 75% of tests are now being done at home (may be more) then US currently is seeing >100k cases/d. Why wait for hospitals to be swamped before reinstating mitigation?


Image



DJ Like in most of the world testing has decreased resulting in poor testing results. If that was compensated with more sewage testing-giving early warning-damage may have been limited...

Let this sink in — for folks who denied airborne for years, why did the FDA just authorize an air breathalyzer test for #COVID19 then? The anti airborne / anti respirator knowledge incompetence at the CDC is just so striking.

it is good breath-analyzer-testing may have some use-no doubt far from perfect ! But the basic strategy, "the basic plan, has to be good ! With Omicron first infection may show no symptoms often-but to many cases see complications later on ! 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/californian-study-shows-that-post-covid-individuals-are-at-a-risk-of-developing-retinal-vascular-occlusions-or-eye-strokes[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/californian-study-shows-that-post-covid-individuals-are-at-a-risk-of-developing-retinal-vascular-occlusions-or-eye-strokes  DJ The eye is another "weak spot" both for catching the virus and infection. 

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 17 2022 at 12:31am

part 2

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-covid-19-deaths-at-highest-level-since-march-2021/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-covid-19-deaths-at-highest-level-since-march-2021/

The UK is currently witnessing its biggest increase in deaths from Covid-19 for three months. Deaths have now surpassed the peak of the last New Year wave, and are currently running at the highest level since March 2021.

The current seven-day average for Covid-19 deaths is 284 per day. That compares to 272 deaths per day on January 18th 2022 at the peak of the last wave.

On April 13th 2022, 658 deaths were recorded within 24 hours, that’s the equivalent of four Boeing 737 airplanes crashing with all lives lost in a single day, and the highest daily figure since February 17th 2021 when 739 died.

The UK population seems to have fallen hook, line and sinker for the “Covid is over” meme, and thousands more lives will lost over the summer as the British ignore almost all mitigations to prevent the spread of the disease. 

Replying to @therocker897 @SarahCaul_ONS and @ONS
Around 85-90% of death certificates with covid mentioned, have covid as the underlying cause of death. The numbers are shared very transparently every week by the ONS.

DJ worldometers have UK CoViD deaths at -1% in the latest numbers...

Latest ONS weekly deaths data (to week ending 1 April) has been released. 290 fewer deaths were recorded in-week compared to the 2015-19 average. That’s 3% less. Year-to-date there have been 150,555 deaths recorded which is 2% lower than the 2015-19 average.

So this UK story is a bit more complicated...you may need to take a longer term view. Worldometers has UK deaths 1,521 this week, 1,529 last week...If you would translate that to a year you may end up with 80,000 UK CoViD deaths per year...at least part of them NOT dying from other causes...

Brilliant from  on the serious issue of long covid - ignored by so many because it makes our current living with covid plan dangerous and stupid. Danny will be leading  next briefing (13 30, 22 April) on Long Covid. Tune in. https://theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/apr/16/vaccines-long-covid-science?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

link [url]https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1515330329967566848/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1515330329967566848/photo/1 (and so on 4 photo's-follow the arrow). 

Lots of reinfections, also lots of Long CoViD in children (also as an outcome of "mild Omicron"). 

41% of those who died of c19 in January were vaxxed.  Everyone w/ LC would have preferred to avoid infection. We have to be more candid about real risk & not continue to call this virus the “flu”…it’s insulting to the 1M who have died. Let’s just not do that any more

(for the US, most West  European countries have higher level of vaccinations-but immunity is getting shorter, (sub)variants get better in immunity escape. 

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/559[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/559

Description: Potential recombinant BA.1*/BA.2 circulating in Brazil, Malaysia, Denmark and India

Recombinant: BA.1* & BA.2
Earliest sequence: 2022-02-05
Likely breakpoint: between 15714 and 17410 (ORF1b- NSP12 and NSP13)
Genomes:
hCoV-19/Brazil/SP-DASA828822284657/2022
hCoV-19/India/MH-INSACOGIP10021/2022
hCoV-19/Denmark/DCGC-434155/2022
hCoV-19/Malaysia/IMR_WC218070/2022
hCoV-19/Malaysia/IMR_WC218470/2022
hCoV-19/Malaysia/IMR_WC218510/2022

Evidence

The sample hCoV-19/Brazil/SP-DASA828822284657/2022 was classified as XM by nextclade, however it seemed to have a different breakpoint with a 21L labeled mutation at 17410:

DJ I did see dr.j.c. claiming "BA.2.12/BA.2.12.1 would become the new global dominant variant"...Reality check; the BA.2.12 (.1) subvariant is spreading high speed in parts of the US. Before that BA.2.3 in South Korea, BA.2.2 in Hong Kong (now both also increasing in China) did see high number of cases/deaths...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-more-ba-2-subvariants-with-the-concerning-mutations-l452q-or-l452r-that-increases-fusogenicity-and-infectivity-are-emerging-and-spreading-glob[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-more-ba-2-subvariants-with-the-concerning-mutations-l452q-or-l452r-that-increases-fusogenicity-and-infectivity-are-emerging-and-spreading-glob makes a much better point; the 452 "L" to "Q" or "R" mutation is the big-new-problem...for now...

Hong Kong had a "hamster-linked Delta" with an unexpected high number of cases. CoViD-spread in non-human hosts (Omicron may have a link with mice) will bring lots more surprises...A variant can peak in one region-with another (sub) variant/recombination-seeing a peak in another region at the same time...(look at present US and China cases). 

So I think the idea of "a new global subvariant" may be outdated...we will see cases going up and down-with hardly any testing or initial symptoms...Long CoViD and excess deaths will become an ever larger problem...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 17 2022 at 2:29am

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/runaway-temperature-rise-by-2026.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/runaway-temperature-rise-by-2026.html ;

The box on above image shows that, when including further adjustment, the temperature rise from pre-industrial to March 2022 could be as much as 2.35°C. Details of the adjustment are described at the pre-industrial page. A 2.35°C rise is only 0.65°C away from a 3°C rise and, as described before, a 3°C rise will likely drive humans (and many other species) into extinction. 

Note that the March 2022 temperature is suppressed, as we're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña, as illustrated by the NOAA image on the right. 

DJ, although not all scientists agree on the short term risks most see climate "change" as a "very urgent and serious problem"....

"Living with climate change" is impossible, that is why there were Kyoto, Paris etc agreements...only to be broken for "the economy"....

In this pandemic there-by now-may come a shift from the immediate risks to the more long term ones. Excess deaths going up, life expectency going down and chronic health issues/long CoViD becoming a major problem. 

DJ I think there may be a relation between [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_swine_fever_virus#2018-2020_African_swine_fever_panzootic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_swine_fever_virus#2018-2020_African_swine_fever_panzootic

In August 2018, China reported the first African swine fever outbreak in Liaoning province, which was also the first reported case in East Asia.[64] By September 1, 2018, the country had culled more than 38,000 hogs.[65] Since the week of September 10, 2018, China has blocked transports of live pigs and pig products in a large part of the country[66] to avoid spread beyond the 6 provinces where the virus was then confirmed. By the end of 2018, the outbreaks had been reported in 23 provinces and municipalities across China.[67] On April 25, 2019, the virus was reported to have spread to every region of China, as well as parts of Southeast Asia, including CambodiaLaosThailand and Vietnam.[68] The Chinese pig population was reported to have declined by almost 100 million compared with the previous year, driving European pork prices to reach a six-year high.[69]

Ze Chen, Shan Gao, and co-workers from Nankai University detected ASFV in Dermacentor (hard ticks) from sheep and bovines using small RNA sequencing. This 235-bp segment had an identity of 99% to a 235-bp DNA segment of ASFV and contained three single nucleotide mutations (C38T, C76T and A108C). C38T, resulting in a single amino-acid mutation G66D, suggests the existence of a new ASFV strain, which is different from all reported ASFV strains in the NCBI GenBank database and the ASFV strain (GenBank: MH713612.1) reported in China in 2018.[70] In December 2019, China banned imports of pigs and wild boars from Indonesia because of African swine fever outbreaks that reached 392 on 17 December.[71]

On September, 2019, South Korea confirmed a second case of African swine fever at a pig farm in Yeoncheon, where 4,700 pigs had been raised, a day after reporting its first-ever outbreak of the virus.[72] As of 31 October 2019, the virus has been detected in domestic pigs in nine places in Gyeonggi-do and five places in Incheon City. It was also confirmed in 18 wild boars from Gangwon-do and Gyeonggi-do, inside or near the Civilian Control Zone.[73]

The South Korean government set a buffer zone to separate affected areas from the rest of the country and instituted a compensation scheme for farms within 10 km (6.2 mi) of infected farms.[73]

(and further)

and the present CoViD pandemic... Did pigs in 2019 get a corona-infection  that was missed because the focus was on the African Swine Fever-virus ? Did the corona-virus jump to humans-maybe somewhere bats/pangolins also as a "bridge" ? (The discussion on where the first cases of CoViD showed up-DJ-in my opinion is NOT closed yet. [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/origins/research-evidence-of-sars-cov-2-before-wuhan-outbreak-in-2019/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/origins/research-evidence-of-sars-cov-2-before-wuhan-outbreak-in-2019/  could be an indication CoViD-19 started in Africa ??? It may be to early for conclusions !)

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza with several types H5N1, H5N6 showing up in unusual high numbers in 2021, 2022 in my opinion may be linked to CoViD ? 

Maybe we did find more cases because of an increase in testing ? May be part of the story...[url]https://www.wur.nl/en/research-results/research-institutes/bioveterinary-research/show-bvr/bird-flu-at-poultry-farms-in-20212022.htm[/url] or https://www.wur.nl/en/research-results/research-institutes/bioveterinary-research/show-bvr/bird-flu-at-poultry-farms-in-20212022.htm also NL is hit hard...

Does CoViD-infection weaken bird defenses against bird flu ????

How likely is it that bird flu may become another pandemic-maybe even on top of CoViD ? It is already a global bird-health crisis. So far human cases of "bird flu" staying limited. 

But with symptoms easy to be seen as CoViD often we may miss a start of spread of bird flu in humans untill it gets out of control !

So much better surveilance, monitoring, sequencing-on a global scale-is needed. 

It is beyond doubt climate change is linked with increased risks for (more) pandemics !  

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 17 2022 at 9:13pm

DJ,

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-nhs-15000-patients-with-covid-and-rising/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-nhs-15000-patients-with-covid-and-rising/ ;

A UK NHS leader has given a graphic account of the pressure that the health service is currently under.  In an article in today’s London Times, Chris Hopson, the chief executive of NHS Providers, urges ministers to discuss “sensible precautions” that the public can take to help reduce pressure on the health service.

“There is concern across the NHS that the government doesn’t seem to want to talk about coronavirus any more,” Hopson said. “But we think we need a proper grown-up national debate about what living with Covid actually means.” He said pretending that the coronavirus “doesn’t exist any more and that nobody needs to take any precautions” was one of the reasons for the current prevalence of infection.

Finding the most fitting reactions is a major challange. In the UK cases -59%, deaths -11%....but not linked to reality...

4/25 Challenge 1. Much higher levels of covid prevalence than we were expecting, and anyone had predicted, at this point. 15,000 patients with covid in English hospital beds on 14 April, compared to 8,210 six weeks earlier. Numbers growing, not falling as we had expected…

Lots of other countries may be in a similar situation; [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/16/healthcare-employees-long-covid-can-dismissed[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/16/healthcare-employees-long-covid-can-dismissed ;

Many healthcare workers who have been battling long Covid since the early days of the pandemic are fearing for their futures as the end of the two-year protection against their dismissal looms on the horizon, according to AD. Nearly 1,000 healthcare employees have been suffering from long Covid complaints for almost two years now.

Almost half of the 4,500 healthcare workers with long Covid have been ill for over a year and have had to lose 30 percent of their salaries as a result of not being able to work. Healthcare workers with long Covid say this has added to the stress of everyday life with the chronic illness.


"When the coronavirus pandemic broke out, we received so many fruit baskets, flowers and support, that was great," a 50-year-old nurse who wished to be known as Tamara told AD. "And now I'm discarded. I have too little air, too little energy to lift people out of bed, to wash and to care for them."

The FNV trade union, which includes healthcare workers, called the lack of support for these long Covid victims a "slap in the face" and is petitioning the government to give them more support. The union points out these "healthcare heroes" have taken a financial hit from salary cuts and medical costs that were not reimbursed. 

also a growing problem..

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-study-discovers-sars-cov-2-could-be-carcinogenic-as-it-causes-mutagenesis,-telomere-dysregulation-and-impairs-dna-mismatch-repair[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-study-discovers-sars-cov-2-could-be-carcinogenic-as-it-causes-mutagenesis,-telomere-dysregulation-and-impairs-dna-mismatch-repair DJ-To put it simple; the virus can disrupt "repair functions" that could limit cancer. Also hijacking DNA can be related to cancer.

DJ-Again I am NOT an expert-just trying to get some glimpse of this pandemic-story. 

China reported 26,016 new coronavirus cases, a 5% increase from yesterday. Shanghai still represents 95% of all cases and reported 24,820 cases of which 3,238 were locally transmitted. Shanghai imposed further lockdowns for 2 weeks to continue its “dynamic clearing” strategy.

from China, cases +85% (worldometers), also 3 CoViD deaths in Shanghai (all three in bad health and around 90 y/o).

My brother who's pretty conservative and doesn't have much patience for Covid alarmism just told me, "There's a lot of Covid out there." He's not wrong. (Home testing & asymptomatic cases & "Covid is over" attitudes are hiding the latest wave.)

in the US...and lots of other places...

DJ-So "how are we going to "live with the virus" then ? Denial is not very effective, lockdowns may slow it down...We have to find a better strategy. 

End of part 1

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 19 2022 at 12:23am

DJ-I do not know what is happening with my recent posts...they seem to disappear...

So just some links [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/immunocompromised/preprint-40-mutations-in-a-16-month-case-of-sars-cov-2-infection/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/immunocompromised/preprint-40-mutations-in-a-16-month-case-of-sars-cov-2-infection/ 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-3-39-billion-individuals-have-already-been-infected-with-sars-cov-2-with-about-15-1-million-covid-19-severity-deaths-till-november-2021[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-3-39-billion-individuals-have-already-been-infected-with-sars-cov-2-with-about-15-1-million-covid-19-severity-deaths-till-november-2021 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ latest numbers from China; 3,316 new cases, 7 deaths (!) Trend for cases +106%

The US trend for cases +2%, Thailand deaths +21%...

#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 27.06% BA.2, 15.54% BA.2.9, 12.50% BA.2.12.1, <-- Spike L452Q! 11.73% BA.2.12, 9.49% BA.2.3, 8.43% BA.1.1, and 8.43% BA.2.10 Tracker (by State): http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7

DJ, both in UK and US growing demand for more use of masks, need for boosters...BUT [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/federal-judge-declares-biden-admin-mask-mandate-planes-unlawful[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/political/federal-judge-declares-biden-admin-mask-mandate-planes-unlawful ;

Update (2000ET): Bloomberg reports that the CDC says the national mask requirement on public transportation is no longer in effect, citing a Florida court ruling against the measure.

The CDC says it will not enforce the mask order but continues to recommend that people wear masks in indoor public transportation settings.

As a reminder, the U.S. Senate voted 57-40 last month to overturn the public health order requiring masks on airplanes and other forms of public transportation, drawing a veto threat from President Joe Biden.

maybe time for better laws ? Basic protection against risks is in laws and plans, thinking about those risks...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 19 2022 at 10:16am

I love all your posts but sometimes don't have time to read them in depth.  I would love your own recap of what you think is going on based on everything you have read!  Pretty Please?

NOW is the Season to Know

that Everything you Do

is Sacred
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 19 2022 at 1:26pm

In short;

-Virus gone exponential. Vaccines/NPI not enough to slow it down. 

-Higher numbers does not mean milder-but increase risk of re/co-infections. So one may catch more then one variant within a short timeframe.

-Estimate of cases so far could be 4 billion ? With 40 million deaths-Covid related CFR=1% and ongoing. Excess deaths statistics are "slow and bad"...

-More spread in non-human hosts increases number of possible variants.

Maybe also end some illusions on "herd immunity", "it will get milder"-why ???

#OmicronUpdates #NewLineagesAlert BA.1.22 -Prevalent in #Peru  BA.2.17  - #Vietnam and others BA.2.18  - #UK/#Ireland BA.2.19  -#Germany XU - BA.1*/BA.2 recombinant - #Japan/#Canada/#India  (BA -alias of B.1.1.529) #PANGO issues: #520, #522, #528, #529, #535

DJ [url]https://www.cdc.gov/forecast-outbreak-analysis/[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/forecast-outbreak-analysis/ I think evaluation is needed-trying to be realistic and no political/for profit games...

Tracking #BA4 and #BA5 #Omicron #Sublineages over time | 4/19/2022   >> Emerging BA.5 hotspot : #Portugal  This tracker includes only sequences with signature mutations👇 BA.4: S: 486V, 452R, 493Q & N: 151S BA.5: S: 486V, 452R, 493Q & M: 3N Tracker: http://tinyurl.com/jxp6apjh

DJ BA.4/BA.5 have strong links with southern Africa, South Africa cases +5%, Namibia +35%...

#OmicronUpdates #RecombinantLineages  As of now recombinant lineages #XD#XE, ... to XU have been designated What's next.. Once all possible two letter codes (X*) are assigned.. march in to three letter codes.. #XAA#XAB,…#XBA etc

DJ co-infection with flu H3N2 "flu-rona" being reported last 6 months in South America, Israel, NL...number of possible variants of CoVid may be "without limits"...

I expect CoViD could get related to hepatitus, (auto) immune disorders...lots of long term serious problems...

and we have given up on ANY strategy...do no longer have the means to do enough sequencing/testing...

Still;

Covid can "develop away from humans" in theory

It may still-maybe-become a cold...milder ?

That is my view-not an expert, just trying to follow the story...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 19 2022 at 10:35pm

DJ,

The story is getting complicated-enough CoViD-news...but Hong Kong did see a BA.2.2, South Korea BA.2.3, US now could see major BA.2.12/BA.2.12.1 peaks...so lots of variants each bringing its own regional "wave"...however not excluding other variants...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/south-korea-xe-and-xm-recombinants-may-be-domestic-occurrence/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/south-korea-xe-and-xm-recombinants-may-be-domestic-occurrence/ limited numbers...

⚠️ Ro value is climbing in Delhi, UP & Haryana! Which lineage is circulating in these regions? ➡️ Top #SARSCoV2 Lineages currently in circulation in #Delhi*: BA.2.10, BA.2.12 & BA.1.1 *data till April 16th & only limited sequences available   https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/VariantDashboard_INDIA/VariantDashboard

DJ India did report extreme low number of cases...most likely because they did not want to find them...

#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 27.06% BA.2, 15.80% BA.2.9, 13.04% BA.2.12.1, <---Spike #L452Q 12.27% BA.2.12, 8.97% BA.2.3, 8.13% BA.1.1, and 8.06% BA.2.10 Tracker (by State): http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7

In the US 









Closely observing BA.2.12.1 (Spike S704L+ L452Q) hotspots for additional mutation pick-ups! Already observing one spike A879V mutation starting to form a cluster in USA (mainly NY) This mutation doesn't seem to increase its growth advantage over time but the next one might!

not yet a clear dominant subvariant...










Worried—Hospitalizations for #COVID19 are rising exponentially again in Florida and New York. Meanwhile, NJ COVID hospitals admissions is second largest by number, while VT largest by percentage. Florida 🏥 are sharply rising—faster than last Omicron wave.

Did China report anothe 7 CoViD deaths today ? 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/preprint-residual-sars-cov-2-found-in-human-tissue-after-426-days/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/preprint-residual-sars-cov-2-found-in-human-tissue-after-426-days/

“We believe this study is the first to detect viral RNA and/or antigen in the tissues of patients with Long Covid, up to 426 days after the onset of COVID-19 symptoms.”

While viral RNA and antigen from gastrointestinal and stool samples of convalescent patients has been extensively reported, we believe this is the first study to detect viable virus. Furthermore, our positive finding in the breast tissue also corroborated with recent reports that immunocompromised patients had also experienced Long Covid symptoms and persistent viral replication. Overall, our findings, along with emerging LC studies, question the possibility of the gastrointestinal tract functioning as a reservoir.

Preprint: Persistence of residual SARS-CoV-2 viral antigen and RNA in tissues of patients with long COVID-19

DJ-not only can such virus cause damage in the host, it may also become spreading from that host...

HUGE—In South Korea 🇰🇷, major study found mandatory wearing of masks reduced #COVID19 rates by 93.5% and practicing both social distancing with masks on public transport during peak hours reduced infection rates by 98.1%. 👀 #MaskUp #COVIDisAirborne https://science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abg3691?utm_campaign=SciMag&utm_source=Social&utm_medium=Twitter

So NOT wearong masks any longer may bring more infections...(also more mutations=variants...). 

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 19 2022 at 11:35pm

part 2....number of (sub)variants;

Variants accelerating, as expected, score card: From Omicron subvariants: BA.1, BA.1.1, and BA.2 Now: XD and XF hybrids of Delta and BA.1 XE  hybrid of Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 BA.4, BA.5 = BA.2 + important mutations BA.2.12.1 and BA2.12.2 and...

DJ with recombination-names now soon expected to become XAA...

How many variants are possible? The number of different mutation combinations is ~4^10,000 4^10 is 1 million 4^20 is 1,000,000,000,000 4^40 is 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 4^100 has 60 zeros 4^200 has 120 zeros 4^1,000 has 600 zeros

-

2) Zooming in on just BA.2.12.1 (new designation please, BA.6??) we see case estimates doubling each week (CDC data) up to current.  This has a more significant chance to break through the shift in seasons to create a real wave than BA.2 could muster.


Image

4

18

71


and also discussions on BA.4, BA.5 now BA.2.12.1 renamed BA.6 maybe...following viral development is almost impossible...

Testing dropped "because the virus is mild" untill it is not...so without proper testing sequencing may be missing a lot...








ECDC update announcement on hepatitis of unknown origin in children, with additional cases in Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Spain to add to the UK ones earlier on.

link [url]https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/update-hepatitis-unknown-origin-children[/url] or https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/update-hepatitis-unknown-origin-children 

DJ-I expect to see more "strange diseases". In part due to damage some subvariants may do to organs (in the hepatitus case liver in children often under 10 y/o). But also because of CoViD in non-human hosts getting mixed up with all kinds of other diseases/mutations making people/hosts more vulnerable for diseases that did less damage earlier. Co-infection of CoVid and Flu-"FluRona" brings more severe disease...

Is the increase of HPAI "bird flu" related to more testing or some sort of CoViD in birds making them more vulnerable ? 








Workers are being told to reenter the office, but only 19% of bosses are going back in person 😉 Infection for thee and remote work for me

DJ, Why are we even unwilling to go for simple basic defenses; masks in public transport/spaces, work/study more from home....Are we simply unwilling to learn ?

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ global cases-due to less testing/reporting -30%...however some trends;

Cases;

Paraguay +154%, Taiwan +138%, China +127%, Finland +124%, Namibia +80%, Zambia +43%, Peru +36%...India now at +35% (from very low numbers...), Mozambique +12%, South Africa +11%, Bangladesh +6%....USA +0,3% (may be over-optimistic...). 

Deaths;

Zambia reporting 6 deaths +600%, Finland +129%, Paraguay +67%, South Africa +61%

[url]https://yle.fi/uutiset/18-89760[/url] or https://yle.fi/uutiset/18-89760 Some (limited) Finland news...[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FIN[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FIN BA.2.9 increasing ??? (but latest info on Omicron from march 16 ???) 

End of part 2...this is a 4D-developing puzzle...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 21 2022 at 2:53am

DJ, 

Some discussion on [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/treatment/paxlovid/paxlovid-covid-19-infections-rebounding-a-few-days-after-treatment/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/treatment/paxlovid/paxlovid-covid-19-infections-rebounding-a-few-days-after-treatment/

There are some anecdotal reports on social media today about Covid-19 infections rebounding a few days after taking Paxlovid. The rebound effects could be caused by reinfection, the biphasic effect of the virus, Paxlovid not clearing the infection completely, or by another unknown mechanism.  If you are taking Paxlovid, then you should probably read up on this.

and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/urgent-studies-needed-on-paxlovid-does-it-only-help-alleviate-symptoms-and-suppress-viral-load-for-a-while-but-does-not-help-in-total-viral-clearance[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/urgent-studies-needed-on-paxlovid-does-it-only-help-alleviate-symptoms-and-suppress-viral-load-for-a-while-but-does-not-help-in-total-viral-clearance 

DJ-I do not know much of medicine...but if a anti-viral does a far from perfect job I imagine a virus can adapt to it...resulting in the anti-viral becoming less usefull over time. 

BNO/Medriva Newsroom

@medriva
 · 
U.S. COVID update: Weekly hospital figures rising for the first time since January - New cases: 78,025 - Average: 42,636 (+352) - States reporting: 41/50 - In hospital: 13,943 (+439) - In ICU: 1,794 (+3) - New deaths: 656 - Average: 403 (-29) More data: https://newsnodes.com/us

related to ; 

Q mutation ---> Spike Mutation L452Q is most likely responsible for the recent surge in cases/hospitalization (especially in NE USA)

DJ [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ became far less usefull because of a sharp drop in testing and reporting...with less testing also sequencing may be a problem even more...still a look at trends; global cases yesterday -30% now at -29%...but very "bad data"...(a delay in reporting can become a major factor). 

USA cases +10%, deaths still -35%...however excess deaths-in the long run-may give much more realistic info. long CoViD is a major global problem...

Some other countries with high increase of cases; 

Finland +300% ! Last week 7,216, last 7 days up to 28,891 cases !!! Deaths +578% !!!!! Last week 27, last 7 days 183 !!! So what is happening in Finland then ? 

[url]https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12411876[/url] or https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-12411876 ;

RAISA LEHTIVUORI,PAULA TIESSALO
21.4. 08:28 • Updated Apr 21 10:13



The main points of the corona information in summary:

  • The number of coronary infections in Finland has decreased for the third week in a row, in all age groups and in all regions.
  • The burden of hospitalization is slowly declining, due to elderly patients and declining vaccination coverage.
  • The amount of coronavirus in wastewater has not increased.
  • Those planning a summer trip should be careful and find out the limitations of both the destination country and possible transit countries.

DJ ????????????????? [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FIN[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FIN BA.2.9 20% but info over 1 month old ? [url]https://yle.fi/news/3-11863045[/url] or https://yle.fi/news/3-11863045 as basic source for Finland...

Paraguay +154%, deaths +67% in South America Peru then cases +26%, deaths +4%...

Taiwan +143%, deaths +100% (from 1 to 2...), China cases +138% with 17 deaths in last 7 days

In Africa; 

Namibia cases +140%, Egypt +115%, South Africa +30%, deaths +27%, Mozambique cases +28%  in general Africa cases now +18%, deaths still -6%

India cases +55%...

DJ-It is getting much harder to get a realistic picture; not only "very limited-if at all-testing/reporting" but also-as far as that is done-limited sequencing now finding lots of different subvariants going up in several parts of the globe...A very unclear view..

In 1959, Eugene Ionesco wrote the absurdist play  Rhinoceros in which one by one, an entire town of people suddenly transform into rhinos. At first, people are horrified but as the contagion spreads, (almost) everyone comes to accept that turning into a rhinoceros is fine. 1/

DJ crazy as a new normal...

Bob Wachter

@Bob_Wachter
 · 
…LC from an Omicron infection in a fully vaxxed person is ~5%. b. Increasing the risk of bad non-Covid outcomes over time. Recent studies have shown ⬆risk of heart attacks & strokes, of diabetes, of brain shrinkage, and of blood clots. It’s hard to translate that to my… (9/25)

DJ...how to survive in a world that has gone crazy ??? Should you try to get invisible-unless very well protected ? Hope things will get "better" one day ? 

So, each time my household of 4 people gets infected, we each have a ~5% chance of getting symptomatic Long Covid. EVERY. TIME. I know friends who are on their third or fourth round of Covid. If people keep getting infected at this rate, Long Covid will become the norm. 13/

And corona is "in between African Swine Fever" and "Avian Flu" as a global health problem...very likely interlinked...with climate collapse worsening global health perspectives even more...

So what do "leaders do" when it gets complicated ? Start a war ! 

DJ We NEED URGENT !!!! GLOBAL !!!! cooperation to get out of high speed worsening problems or we will not survive this...

End of part 1-maybe later on a part 2...I think it is becoming increasingly impossible to follow this pandemic...two many subvariants, to little good info...to much "live with it" ...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 22 2022 at 12:17am

DJ, 

I am very sceptical with these kinds of studies [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-new-u-s-study-shows-that-natural-immunity-presents-a-longer-window-of-protection-against-covid-19-infection-compared-to-mrna-jabs[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-new-u-s-study-shows-that-natural-immunity-presents-a-longer-window-of-protection-against-covid-19-infection-compared-to-mrna-jabs ????????????

The article takes time to explain differences with mRNA vaccines may not be that major [url]https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34619098/[/url] or https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34619098/ ;

Interpretation: Our results provide support for high effectiveness of BNT162b2 against hospital admissions up until around 6 months after being fully vaccinated, even in the face of widespread dissemination of the delta variant. Reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections over time is probably primarily due to waning immunity with time rather than the delta variant escaping vaccine protection.

Funding: Pfizer.

DJ, Are there risks in getting a vaccine ?  As a very much NON-expert my impression is vaccines are not without risks...but catching CoViD most likely may be even worse...

Also with fast mutating new subvariants in a group of hosts with more immunity (either via infection or vaccination) the virus will get better in evading immunity...I do not know if any of the SARS-1 infected group (or MERS ?) still has enough protection against CoViD-19/SARS-2 ? 

Still [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/reinfection/spain-fully-boosted-healthcare-worker-reinfected-with-sars-cov-2-after-just-20-days/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/reinfection/spain-fully-boosted-healthcare-worker-reinfected-with-sars-cov-2-after-just-20-days/

A fully boosted 31-year-old Spanish woman has contracted two different SARS-CoV-2 variants within three weeks. The 20-day gap between infections is the shortest known. The first infection was with the Delta variant, the second infection was with Omicron.

The woman, a healthcare worker, first tested positive on December 20th 2021, in a PCR test during staff screening at her place of work. She was fully vaccinated and had received a booster shot 12 days earlier.

The patient, who didn’t develop any symptoms with the Delta variant, self-isolated for ten days before returning to work.

On January 10, 2022, just 20 days after first testing positive, she developed a cough, fever and felt generally unwell and did another PCR test. This was also positive.

Whole genome sequencing showed that patient had been infected by two different strains of SARS-CoV-2. Their first infection, in December, was with the Delta variant. The second, in January, was with the Omicron variant.

European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases

DJ Level of protection is based on statistics...maybe some people may catch some subvariant more easy then others ? It is "complex"...an unvaccinated person may have less risks-if limiting social contacts, mask etc,,,,,then a fully vaccinated/booster HCW-er on a CoViD-ward...Vaccination also would provide better protection against long CoViD...a fast growing problem...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/research-sars-cov-2-spike-gene-passaged-in-black-rats/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/research-sars-cov-2-spike-gene-passaged-in-black-rats/

Analyses suggest that the ancestral coronavirus adapted to bats was shortly passaged in treeshrews, while the donor of the spike gene was shortly passaged in rats before the recombination event.

Both treeshrews and black rats/mice live in Central China. All of these species may well be sold in Chinese wet markets and/or be used for passaging viruses in virological laboratories. Our results therefore do not answer the question whether the new virus is the product of a natural recombination of two viruses or the outcome of deliberate insertion of the gene for the spike protein into the genome of other coronavirus species.

Research article: SARS-CoV-2 spike gene evolved in humans and then shortly in rats while the rest of its genome in horseshoe bats and then in treeshrews

DJ...corona-virusses are widespread in lots of animals worldwide...If you are looking at "where did it start" you may first have to make up "how/when" did it start ? If recombination of corona-virusses was the basis for this pandemic-jumping from non-human to human hosts maybe we have to rethink the risks...they may be much larger then we want to believe...

In many ways what we see as "normal" is based on the last decades being very unusual in many ways...

-A look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ has Finland on #6 for most cases...in part maybe they still keep testing there ? Germany, France both report over 100,000 cases...Global cases -28%, deaths -23% however Africa cases +23%, deaths +32% ! Egypt cases now at +156%...

China cases +100%, India cases +80%, South Africa cases +56%, US cases +13%53 countries reporting an increase of cases....North America cases now only -4%...

Vincent Rajkumar

@VincentRK
 · 
I've written about how South Korea controlled the pandemic. But nothing captures the dramatic difference like cumulative deaths over 2 years. It's a painful watch.
Show this thread

has a link to US CoViD deaths number exploding [url]https://twitter.com/VincentRK/status/1517287705511706624[/url] or https://twitter.com/VincentRK/status/1517287705511706624 

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 22 2022 at 2:11am

DJ, 

China yesterday reported 8 deaths-today 11 

Shanghai reports 11 new coronavirus deaths, the biggest one-day increase on record

with NPI/lockdown restrictions ever harder to maintain...DJ, Argentina did have a very long lockdown that however turned out not to be very effective...In China cases keep going up...so you may need to rethink the strategy. Trying to find more on what variant is spreading but could not find much info...BA.2.2/BA.2.3 from Hong Kong/South Korea major factor...

For the US; 









#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 27.30% BA.2, 16.56% BA.2.9, 15.26% BA.2.12.1, <-Spike #L452Q 13.09% BA.2.12, 9.98% BA.2.3, 6.78% BA.1.1, and 5.90% BA.2.10 Tracker (by State): http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7  #OmicronUpdates 04/21/22

also [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=USA[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=USA BA.2.12, BA..212.1 and BA.2.9 seem to be increasing...(5%,2%,7%).

a look at NL [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD&dark=true[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD&dark=true has BA.2.9 at 34%, BA.2.12 at 7%...NL cases -57%...

comparing that with Finland wich has cases +76% (with other nordic countries cases also going down more then 20%...) [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FIN&dark=true[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FIN&dark=true info maybe a little older but BA.1.1 at 44%, BA.2.9 at 20%, BA.2.12 at 4%...why are the numbers that different ? It is not only-maybe-more testing...

This is an X-ray of a person in their early 30s who is perfectly healthy. They have mild #omicron and severe bacterial pneumonia. (Yellow square). My ICU is full of these cases. Omicron suppresses immunity making people susceptible to severe disease. This makes everyone comorbid.


Image

DJ, would this be a factor in the high number of avian flu cases ? Birds catching a "mild" corona-virus but getting much more vulnarable for H5-bird flu types ? Did it work this way in pigs-African Swine Fever maybe keeping a "mild corona virus" spreading under the radar ? 

The above x-ray again underlines the importance of NOT getting the virus ! Also "people may not die from CoViD" but a bacterial infection-still that bacterial infection may have been very mild without the CoViD on top of it...

Eric Feigl-Ding

@DrEricDing
 · 
🏀REBOUND of #COVID19 ON DAYS 10-14—I’ve been closely monitoring a new trend of a “rebound” of symptoms after Paxlovid’s 5 day course is finished—neg then positive again. Example—3 in one family. Pfizer hinted on FDA app too—need to be vigilant to retest. https://bostonglobe.com/2022/04/21/metro/puzzling-phenomenon-patients-report-rebound-covid-19-symptoms-after-taking-antiviral-paxlovid/

DJ An anti-viral needs to STOP the virus-not to "slow it down" ! Otherwise the virus will mutate around the anti-viral...








🎊BIG new update to http://CoVariants.org!🎊 Using cases from , we're now generating plots showing cases by variant! 📊🤯 This has been much-requested & in-the-works since Nov 2021. Let's take a look!
Click the new 'Cases' link at the top of any http://CoVariants.org page, or go straight to http://covariants.org/cases! Note that these are *estimates* of the proportion of cases by variant. Only a small % of cases are sequenced - we're extrapolating, so interpret with care!!

This [url]https://covariants.org/[/url] or https://covariants.org/ may give more info-if enough info is available...will be-also-far from perfect since sequencing takes time ...

[url]https://covariants.org/per-country[/url] or https://covariants.org/per-country "21K" and "21L" Omicron [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Nomenclature[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Nomenclature 

[url]https://covariants.org/variants/21K.Omicron[/url] or https://covariants.org/variants/21K.Omicron =BA.1 and [url]https://covariants.org/variants/21L.Omicron[/url] or https://covariants.org/variants/21L.Omicron =BA.2...

DJ-Maybe some remarks on the [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ looking at total cases per million...Israel has 43,4% of its population testing positive at least once...also a high % in adults being vaccinated (however with a young population the total number of vaccines is not that high...). 

Denmark even over 50% of its population did test positive...NL 46,6%. US had 24,7%, Sweden 24,5%, Finland 18% of its population tested positive...could that be a factor in why Finland now has cases +76% (deaths -34%) ???

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 22 2022 at 10:33pm

DJ,

Allthough the numbers are far from complete let me start with [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

For today-april 23- China reporting close to 3,000 new cases, 12 deaths. Yesterday did see just over 680,000 new cases being reported...a more realistic number may be between 5x to maybe even 10x that number...India only reporting 2,527 new cases...

Trends may-for that matter-be more of use; global cases now -23% (a few days back -30%) deaths -16%...59 countries now reporting an increase of cases. (With the "highest increase" in countries that reported 0 cases last week-maybe because they did not have tests...). 

Taiwan (EA1) cases +172%, India (SA1) +108%, South Africa  SAF1)+78%, Tunesia +77%, Finland (NE1)+76%,Namibia (SAF2) +74%, China (EA2) +61%, Spain +38%, Bangla Desh (SA2) +23%, Peru +21%, USA (NA1) +15%, Eswatini (SAF3) +13%, Saudi Arabia +9%, Canada (NA2) +8%, Sri Lanka  (SA3)+3%, Norway (NE2) +0,5%.

To name a few clusters;

East Asia (EA), China, Taiwan

South Asia (SA) India, Bangla Desh, Sri Lanka

Northern Europe (NE) Finland, Norway

North America (NA) USA, Canada

Each cluster may have their own main subvariant...even more complex; Bangla Desh and India could even see different main subvariants in different regions...(same goes for USA/Canada, Southern Africa region etc.). 

Saudi Arabia/Arab countries worth keeping an eye on also because of [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MERS[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MERS a camel related corona-virus...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/deaths/uk-the-deadly-legacy-of-britains-covid-19-freedom-day-2646-deaths-in-one-week/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/deaths/uk-the-deadly-legacy-of-britains-covid-19-freedom-day-2646-deaths-in-one-week/

Nearly one year ago, on July 19th 2021, the UK announced its “Freedom Day” from Covid-19.  The deadly cost of that fateful decision is now becoming apparent…

On the 21st April 2021, the UK death rate was just 20 victims. One year later, on the 21st April 2022, the figure has risen to 647 deaths – 32 times greater than the same day in 2021.

In the past 8 days alone, from the 13th April 2022 to 21st April 2022, there have been 2,646 deaths, despite a three-day holiday during that period when no Covid figures were recorded.

The UK death rate has now been rising for more than one year, and is far above the levels that triggered the first national lockdown in March 2020 and the second national lockdown in November 2020.

DJ, UK reported 320 deaths april 22, 646 deaths april 21-UK trends for deaths +7%; last 7 days 1,860 UK deaths, the week before it was 1,733...still excluding a lot of excess deaths..dying later then 28 days after a first positive test...[url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map dark red is 40,000 (expected) cases per million...=4% of the population getting infected...[url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time UK cases going down for now...

There are 43 countries reporting an increase of deaths...but again-in %-the highest score in countries that did not report deaths last week...still China did report 36 deaths in the last 7 days (with 0 the week before-somehow worldometers puts that as +3% ???? +360% would make more sense !)

South Africa deaths +148%, last 7 days 144, the week before 58. Canada +50%, last 7 days 465, the week before 311..

Still the US reported most deaths (in absolute numbers) 2,234 last 7 days, the week before 2,875 -22%...

Peru still on top of the list of DpM-deaths per million; 6,293 (=0,63% of the Peru population died from CoViD). Brazil 3,078 dpm, USA 3,043, Chile 2,953, Italy 2,691, UK 2,525

[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/04/articles/animals/cats/covid-control-measures-in-animal-shelters/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/04/articles/animals/cats/covid-control-measures-in-animal-shelters/ ; As the world tries to (prematurely) transition back to some semblance of normalcy (or at least what used to be “normal”), it’s a challenge to figure out what changes to make, and when. There will never be agreement between everybody. Some want full reversion to “normal” now, some want third-wave-level restrictions until further notice… like most things, there’s presumably a sweet spot in the middle.

-

Preventing infection of people FROM animals

The risk of dog/cat-to-human transmission is low but not zero. This risk has not been well documented, even though it presumably it occurs, but we need to put it into context. It’s more of a concern when there’s less risk of human-to-human transmission. When there’s rampant community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 between people, the potential impact of animal-to-human transmission is limited. An animal shelter worker is much more likely to get infected outside of the shelter, even if there are infected animals in the shelter.

-

What do we do to balance being proactive and practical, reducing disease risk while maintaining as much normalcy as possible in shelter operations?

Good question.  To be honest, we’re making it up as we go (because we have to), and there’s no one-size-fits-all solution.

However, there are some basic practices and concepts that certainly apply and need to be considered carefully in any situation:

  • Maximize vaccination of staff (and that means 3 doses, not 2).
  • Maintain basic non-pharmaceutical interventions such as masks.
  • Monitor and improve ventilation.
  • Continue to have a strict “if you’re sick, stay home” policy.

Managing visitors/adopters is also important, including measures such as:

  • Minimize the number of visitors in the shelter.  Do as much remotely as possible. Discussions about animals and adoption protocols can be done online or by phone.
  • Minimize the number of people in the shelter in general or in any specific area of the shelter at one time.  Keep access to the shelter by appointment only, so that there are no crowded periods. Keep people spaced out
  • Maximize the use of outdoor spaces for interviews and animal visits.
  • Require visitors to wear masks.

Some adopters won’t like it, but it’s a case of “your facility, your rules.” If someone won’t use these very basic precautions (during a pandemic that’s still in full swing), it may be a red flag about how well they will follow any other requirements associated with adoption as well.

DJ, Maybe these "shelter-rules" should remain basic untill there is a realistic perspective (and not a "political bla-bla, saving the economy=profits" perspective) of an end to this pandemic. 

You do not need to be a medical expert to understand basic statistics ! If a virus is also widespread in non-human hosts "the pandemic is far from over" !

Again, this pandemic is the outcome of politics, politicians, not doing their job !!!! If democracy is "every $,€ counts" instead of every voter you have democrazy !

Living with the virus is even more crazy then living with climate "change"...politicians starting a global war instead of solving basic problems belong in a madhouse !

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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