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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

scenario's

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 22 2022 at 11:14pm

DJ-part 2

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/reinfection/preprint-rates-of-covid-19-among-unvaccinated-adults-with-prior-infection/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/reinfection/preprint-rates-of-covid-19-among-unvaccinated-adults-with-prior-infection/ ;Prior COVID-19 (in the unvaccinated) was associated with protection of 85% against any recurrent COVID-19, 88% against hospitalization for COVID-19, and 83% against COVID-19 not requiring hospitalization. Protection remained stable over the study period with no attenuation up to 9 months from initial infection.

link [url]https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2791312[/url] or https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2791312 

this is complex...YES, countries like China, South Korea, Finland now may face high numbers of infections-in part because they managed to keep virus-spread very limited so far. Other countries-with more or less the same virus sub-variants spreading can see much lower cases...

When I look at "cases per million" Iceland, Denmark did see over 50% of their population testing positive (that is-if the number of reinfections would be limited). NL had 46,7% of its population testing positive, Israel 43,4%, France 42,8%, UK 32%, USA 24,7%...

However these statistics are also related to A; testing capacity B; A willingness to get tested...

With the newer Omicron sub-variants indications are re-infections/breaktrough cases are going up...The idea was people that had SARS-1 in 2003 would have "good protection" against SARS-2...but that may be history soon...

Lots of countries (Iran, Brazil, South Africa) may have massive waves of RE-infections !!! So "natural immunity" after catching CoViD may be far from perfect and only getting worse...

One of the problems is we have been in this pandemic for over 2 years now..."since it was supposed to be mild" the virus did spread even more widely around the globe-also most likely in (maybe up to a 100 species ?) non-human hosts...The main reason "numbers go down" is "testing going down" bad politics...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-sars-cov-2-impairs-lipid-metabolic-and-autophagic-pathways,-causing-damage-to-heart,-liver-and-kidneys-the-phytochemical-trigonelline-helps[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-sars-cov-2-impairs-lipid-metabolic-and-autophagic-pathways,-causing-damage-to-heart,-liver-and-kidneys-the-phytochemical-trigonelline-helps CoViD-19 can damage organs (and coffee may offer some protection  ?)

[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps for Europe, NL, Belgium show "moderate excess deaths" between 4% and 7% above what should be expected in week 14...France, Italy, Portugal, Austria, Denmark had "low excess", 2%-4% above "normal"...

DJ-If you loke at excess deaths per year, worldwide you also have to include wars, climate change, famines etc. we also here in NL had a bit more flu-activity...co-infection of flu and corona lu-rona" may increase risks of dying...but do people then die from A.Flu ? B. Corona ? C. age/other health issue ? D. A combination of these...making statistics even harder to understand...

[url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN trying to follow US situation, also BA.4/BA.5 possibly a major risk in Southern Africa;

Rajeev

@Rajeev_The_King
 · 
Gauteng has shown a rapid rise in new cases over recent days. The last two specimen dates are above 2000 cases. This could be a possible signal for the start of a new wave, which is supported by wastewater surveillance data from all districts in Gauteng.

DJ, Sewage-sampling may be a better alternative for massive testing. Nasal vaccinations offer better protection...why these steps take so long ??? Why even a discussion on basic NPI is that hard ? (Here in NL cimema's, theatres often only get 50% of the old audience back...public transport often is not on prepandemic level number of travelers...Also shops may see still lower then pre-pandemic clients...I think some basic rules could see more social activity...also restore some trust in "politics"...). 

Dr. Deepti Gurdasani

@dgurdasani1
 · 
It's clear that long COVID is having a significant impact on health, and given those most at risk are in working age groups, the impact on the economy is also likely to be significant. Businesses are now reporting that long COVID is a major cause of absence.

Ignoring "Long CoViD" (LC) is a very major mistake !

For those saying we should allow people to keep getting infected to build an immunity, people are now getting reinfected 3 weeks after their last infection. Their chances of getting long Covid also go up significantly.   https://theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/21/woman-31-catches-covid-twice-within-21-days-spain

DJ To be honest, I think the idea of "herd immunity" is a disaster...an excuse for "incompetent leaders" going for "the economy=profit" !








We no longer, as world human population, have any serious say in SARS2 epi, bc, outside of Far E, we gave up. I don't like this either, but here we are. Please don't bother blaming anyone in particular. The world gave up.

so the result is "a deathly virus out of control"....

Replying to  and 
All these little dirty tricks that our governments are doing to conceal the scope of the pandemic are criminal malfeasance that misguides people about their risk & what's actually happening. This diabolic deliberate miscounting is now looking very alike the Chinese cover-up.

DJ, If "Chinese cover-up" means reporting to low numbers, proberbly may be correct...However I still have lots of ??? on how/where this pandemic started. [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/origins/research-evidence-of-sars-cov-2-before-wuhan-outbreak-in-2019/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/origins/research-evidence-of-sars-cov-2-before-wuhan-outbreak-in-2019/ there are by now lots of findings outside China from before the major Wuhan-crisis...Did the october 2019 Wuhan-military games start the global spread ? If you look at patterns; Africa did bring a lot of variants...but also bats living in the border-zone of China with Laos, Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam have over 30 corona-virusses...Escape from a lab somewhere ???

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2022 at 2:53am

DJ, 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ now has no country reporting more the 100,000 cases, weekend numbers resulting in "only" close to 550,000 new cases being reported-trend -21%. Global reported deaths 1,540-trend -15%...very good to see both cases and deaths going down...but not that realistic...lots of countries simply stopped reporting cases...specialy during weekends...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ may be more of use...

-North America cases +4%, deaths still -17%

-Africa cases by now +24%, deaths +6%

-India cases +126% !!!!, deaths +8%

-China cases +29%, deaths +4% (China [url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-24/COVID-19-cases-fluctuate-as-death-toll-rises-in-Shanghai-19utofnPj56/index.html[/url] or https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-04-24/COVID-19-cases-fluctuate-as-death-toll-rises-in-Shanghai-19utofnPj56/index.html reporting another 39 deaths today...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/ 

We did see major waves in South Korea and Hong Kong, it now looks like that kind of a wave is on its way in China, India, the US...61 countries report an increase of cases, 45 see an increase of deaths...Most likely lots of different variants, resulting in lots of different waves from Finland cases +76%, Taiwan cases +184%, Spain cases +18%, Saudi Arabia +12% (= risk of MERS-mixing ???).

UK reporting now two weeks with more then 1,700 CoViD deaths per week, Germany had 1,100+ last week, now 1,200+ this week...also Italy now above 1,000 deaths per week..

Excess deaths again is another indicator-Omicron most likely a slow killer...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xl/italy-omicron-recombinants-xj-and-xl-at-32-of-sequences-in-sardinia/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xl/italy-omicron-recombinants-xj-and-xl-at-32-of-sequences-in-sardinia/

Recent Italian SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing information has shown that the Omicron BA1/BA2 recombinants XJ and XL are making strong headway on the island of Sardinia.

In the most recent flash survey, the XL recombinant is at 20.9% of sequences from Sardinia, and the XJ recombinant is at 11.6% of sequences, a total of 32.5% of all sequences for the island.

and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xd/france-xd-recombinant-lacks-a-competitive-advantage-over-ba-2/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xd/france-xd-recombinant-lacks-a-competitive-advantage-over-ba-2/ 

France has just published a new risk analysis for SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in the country. The headline from the report is that the Deltacron recombinant XD is struggling to compete with Omicron BA.2. The risk analysis has been translated into English and republished below, as it covers far more than just the XD recombinant.

DJ Recombinations often are reported but in low numbers...it is another worry if recombinations find ways for increased spread. 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/uk-study-only-a-quarter-of-hospitalized-covid-patients-are-fully-recovered-after-one-year/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/uk-study-only-a-quarter-of-hospitalized-covid-patients-are-fully-recovered-after-one-year/ ;

A UK study of more than 2,000 patients after hospitalization with COVID-19 shows only around 1 in 4 feel fully recovered after one year.

The study authors found that being female versus being male (32% less likely), having obesity (half as likely) and having had mechanical ventilation in hospital (58% less likely) were all associated with a lower probability of feeling fully recovered at one year. The most common ongoing long-COVID symptoms were fatigue, muscle pain, physically slowing down, poor sleep, and breathlessness.

One of the study author’s said: “The limited recovery from 5 months to 1 year after hospitalisation in our study across symptoms, mental health, exercise capacity, organ impairment, and quality-of-life is striking.”

Eurekalert.org press release

Lancet Study: Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of long COVID and association with 1-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study

DJ Women are more likely to develop auto-immune diseases-while men in the same conditions die...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-china-starts-using-the-antibiotic-minocycline-that-also-has-antiviral-properties-to-treat-covid-19[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-china-starts-using-the-antibiotic-minocycline-that-also-has-antiviral-properties-to-treat-covid-19 lots of links in the article. China is not the first country to use this drug. One reason why it is not standard may be "limited success"? (Another not enough profit ? But that would be less a factor in more state-run countries, where big pharma is owned by the government...). It may also do more for some groups, with some subvariants...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2indspeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2indspeculator with a.o. 








Here also a plot with the raw confirmed case numbers by variant in South Africa. Clearly a steep BA.4 & BA.5-driven rise... Too soon to know what impact this will have on hospitalisations. But a significant wave every 6 months seems likely...


Image

1

8

21


BA.4 related 5th wave starting in South Africa, and 








New  update notes „169 cases of acute hepatitis of unknown origin have been reported“ from Europe and US. 17 children have required liver transplantation; at least one death has been reported. https://who.int/emergencies/di
-

-„Adenovirus has been detected in at least 74 cases, and of the number of cases with information on molecular testing, 18 have been identified as F type 41. #SARSCoV2 was identified in 20 cases of those that were tested.“ 19 were detected with #SARSCoV2 and adenovirus co-infection

Hepatitis as a severe complication of CoViD/Adeno-viral co-infection in young children ? 

DJ More on recombinations [url]https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/TrackingSARSCoV2RecombinantLineages/SARSCoV2_Recombinants[/url] or https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/TrackingSARSCoV2RecombinantLineages/SARSCoV2_Recombinants 

DJ-We are not even any longer pretending to stop the pandemic...so it will get worse !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2022 at 9:49pm

DJ,

Two strategy-extremes; Zero CoViD [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beijing-residents-scramble-stockpile-food-essentials-new-covid-outbreak-detected[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beijing-residents-scramble-stockpile-food-essentials-new-covid-outbreak-detected with a lockdown coming to Bejing...[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/eu-agrees-online-censorship-laws[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/eu-agrees-online-censorship-laws or denial-censorship...

Both authoritarian, a risk for democracy. Both also not effective enough in stopping the pandemic.

DJ-I want to allow myself some "hopium" ! Better-nasalspray-vaccines, better anti-virals, mixed with "limited" NPI, masks in public spaces, no mass events should be able to limit the pandemic?

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/what-they-are-not-telling-you-about-the-covid-19-pandemic,-about-the-sars-cov-2-virus,-its-emerging-variants-and-long-covid[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/what-they-are-not-telling-you-about-the-covid-19-pandemic,-about-the-sars-cov-2-virus,-its-emerging-variants-and-long-covid  however may indicate dealing with this pandemic will be a "very long march" not a short sprint...

Comparing this pandemic with another "unwelcome reality"; climate "change" also offers limited hope (to put it very optimistic). The political belief is we "have to live with both; climate change and "the virus" ....reality is we may not survive "living with it"....

Instead of global cooperation we now face global war with tens of millions of refugees; people looking for safety and a future...Pandemics mixed with wars did see the healthcrisis getting much worse in the past...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years%27_War#Human_and_financial_cost_of_the_war[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years%27_War#Human_and_financial_cost_of_the_war ;Historians often refer to the 'General Crisis' of the mid-17th century, a period of sustained conflict in states such as China, the British IslesTsarist Russia and the Holy Roman Empire. In all these areas, war, famine and disease inflicted severe losses on local populations.[148] While the Thirty Years War certainly ranks as one of the worst of these events, 19th century nationalists often increased or exaggerated its impact to illustrate the dangers of a divided Germany.[149] Suggestions of up to 12 million deaths from a population of 18 million are no longer accepted, while claims of material losses are either not supported by contemporary evidence or in some cases exceed prewar tax records

-

The modern consensus is the population of the Holy Roman Empire declined from 18 to 20 million in 1600 to 11–13 million in 1650, and did not regain pre-war levels until 1750.[159] Nearly 50% of these losses appear to have been incurred during the first period of Swedish intervention from 1630 to 1635. The high mortality rate compared to the Wars of the Three Kingdoms in Britain may partly be due to the reliance of all sides on foreign mercenaries, often unpaid and required to live off the land.[160] Lack of a sense of 'shared community' resulted in atrocities such as the destruction of Magdeburg, in turn creating large numbers of refugees who were extremely susceptible to sickness and hunger. While flight saved lives in the short-term, in the long run it often proved catastrophic

DJ So here the discussion is did the war/healthcrisis kill 1/3 or 2/3 of the population....That was 1600-1650, we now have "better weapons"....

Living with it ; [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/preprint-serious-brain-disorders-following-mild-covid-19/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/preprint-serious-brain-disorders-following-mild-covid-19/ ;

In 43 patients, disorders ranged from brain inflammation and delirium to nerve damage and stroke. A dozen patients had inflammation of the central nervous system, 10 had brain disease with delirium or psychosis, eight had strokes and a further eight had peripheral nerve problems, mostly diagnosed as Guillain-Barré syndrome, an immune reaction that attacks the nerves and causes paralysis.

The cases, published in the journal Brain, revealed a rise in a life-threatening condition called acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (Adem), as the first wave of infections swept through Britain. At UCL’s Institute of Neurology, Adem cases rose from one a month before the pandemic to two or three per week in April and May. One woman, who was 59, died of the complication.

Article in Brain magazine

DJ, "Long CoViD" (LC) is a fast growing global problem resulting in tens of millions of people being unable to do a full time job...

State of the pandemic could “all change tomorrow and that’s what the public is not willing to hear,” Dr. Michael Osterholm tells . “I don’t know what this next 210-mile-an-hour curveball is going to be thrown at us by these variants.” https://abcn.ws/38ieVSU

In the US the next wave also has started, BA.2.12.1 linked...in Africa BA.4 is causing another wave...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ limited/no reporting cases in the weekend leaves global cases at -21%...US cases -1%....North America trend is cases +4%, deaths -14%, Africa cases +33%, deaths +14%. Different sub-variants resulting in different numbers often per country...also linked to "natural immunity/high number of previous cases"...

DJ Why there is still no "stool-testing" ? What does it mean if feaces have viral RNA ? How much of a healthrisks are those persons ? 

The utter confusion in the financial markets today is one for the history books. High inflation vs. crashing commodity prices? Hiking rates vs. market crash? Supply chain problems vs. demand destruction? Pandemic over vs. Beijing in possible lockdown? To order or not?

The economic damage is getting extreme, the idea was "to save the economy" short term thinking...

Thread on the limitations of vaccine protection against Long Covid. Note: None of the hazard ratios (reductions of effects after vaccination) are better than 70% (30% reduction).

DJ; Message again simple; try NOT to catch the virus ! Even 30% reduction-from a pandemic viewpoint-is welcome ! It is "less worse" to see 70,000 LC patients then 100,000 Long CoViD (LC) cases !

The duration of this crisis, erosion of healthcare (HCW-ers exhausted, getting infected) and a global political crisis resulting in "hard times"...

DJ-Maybe put it even in other words; we humans dominated this planet for a few hundred years...the virus is replacing us...Can the virus survive [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/runaway-temperature-rise-by-2026.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/runaway-temperature-rise-by-2026.html

Enjoy the moments, the good things life may still offer...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2022 at 12:08am

DJ, 

In latest news-NUCLEAR WAR-I try to "get my perspective" on the main global crisis. Both the pandemic and climate collapse are "just" segments, parts of this global worsening crisis. 

Due to very serious new developments in the global war I may decide to put more attention to that war-or "take some time off"...

I hate "fear-porn"; on the other hand I also hate "denialism"...try to get a "balanced view" on open sources that have links;

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ DJ with weekend-extreme low-"real" numbers (383,230 cases/1,799 deaths-Sunday april 24) trends for cases -16%, deaths -9%...

This is BAD !!! Because we did decrease testing and reporting, "adjust the scale" but from -30% for cases last week we now see cases going up...

In climate change "adjusting the scale" means "keeping temperature rise below 1,5C" but a baseline that does no longer mean "pre-industrial" but a political one...A more realistic baseline would need to at least look at 1750 as "pre-industrial"; but the outcome we are allready close to 2,5C temperature rise is "political unwanted"...

In this pandemic "freedom" resulting in millions of new cases each day, high excess deaths is "political unwelcome"...also "against the war-effort" soon may be even a "military secret"...

For now; 

Germany cases +12%, deaths +23%

USA cases +9%, deaths -22% 

China cases -6% as far as reported (in China a case=a symptomatic case...), deaths +4% DJ 3 last week, 135 this week =close to +240% I do not know why Worldometers make it "4%"...

South Africa cases +140%, deaths +83%

India cases +93%, deaths -2% (with major testing/reporting issues)

A look at some regions;

North America cases +11%, deaths -11%

South America cases -4%, deaths -3%

Africa cases +38%, deaths +7%

Oceania cases -2%, deaths -7%

In total 84 countries now reporting an increase of cases, 57 see an increase of deaths. DJ-These statistics have limited value both because of weekend=much less reporting and in general lack of reporting. 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/china-16-cases-of-omicron-ba-2-3-reported-in-yantai-shandong/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/china-16-cases-of-omicron-ba-2-3-reported-in-yantai-shandong/

16 cases of Omicron BA.2.3, were reported on Monday in Yantai, East China’s Shandong Province, the first time the strain has been detected in the Chinese mainland.

DJ, Yantai is a portcity in NE China on the Yellow Sea-on the other side of that sea is Korea. South Korea did see an explosion of BA.2.3

Since China is sticking to "Zero-CoViD" it may be able to limit the pandemic somewhat. At high economic/social costs. Yesterday (worldometers) China reported another 2,680 new cases and 51 deaths. 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/feb-2022-research-severe-hepatitis-in-pediatric-covid-19/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/feb-2022-research-severe-hepatitis-in-pediatric-covid-19/ ;So it’s pure coincidence that cases of hepatitis in children are popping up right across the globe during a global pandemic of a virus that is known to cause hepatitis?

DJ CoViD is doing damage all over the body...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-shows-that-long-covid-is-more-predominant-than-thought-with-only-1-out-of-4-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-feeling-fully-recovered-after-one-yea[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-shows-that-long-covid-is-more-predominant-than-thought-with-only-1-out-of-4-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-feeling-fully-recovered-after-one-yea r DJ-And Omicron-often missed; mild early symptoms and test-escape-still indications are the virus doing lots of damage later on (but simply not enough data-also a lot only-so far-reporting cold-like symptoms without further long term complications-so for the new BA.2/BA.4 "Omicron" variants (not named otherwise since-"politics"Omicron would be the last Variant Of Concern...) is to early to tell...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2022 at 1:39am

DJ, 

Some twitter etc; 








Shanghai reports 52 new coronavirus deaths, the biggest one-day increase on record

DJ, Unclear info from China-but all indications are China is seeing lots of cases in lots of places-most likely BA.2.2 (Hong Kong) and BA.2.3 (South Korea) are spreading...but very likely also other subvariants/recombinations. 

U.S. COVID update: New cases continue to rise, up 32% from last week - New cases: 62,147 - Average: 50,935 (+1,334) - States reporting: 28/50 - In hospital: 14,439 (+42) - In ICU: 1,803 (+18) - New deaths: 251 - Average: 394 (-4)

DJ Worldometer reporting US cases +9%, but for them the US also includes overseas parts of the US (US Samoa, Virgin-islands, Guam etc). Still a major difference in reported numbers! 

Replying to 
Every model estimates 2-7x the reported.  Take your pick between 120K and 400K cases today. Vaccines are working to keep Americans out of the hospital. Long Covid? That's a different question








Replying to 
Every model estimates 2-7x the reported.  Take your pick between 120K and 400K cases today. Vaccines are working to keep Americans out of the hospital. Long Covid? That's a different question

1



1










Replying to 
Every model estimates 2-7x the reported.  Take your pick between 120K and 400K cases today. Vaccines are working to keep Americans out of the hospital. Long Covid? That's a different question

1



1


The US has "limited vaccine protection" compared with Europe/Israel...also new subvariants are better in evading immunity...Waning immunity is a fast growing problem !








So about that pediatric Hepatitis "phenomenon": this was already described back in July 2021 in India - it was associated with past Covid-19 infections. Still    & others are blaming some Adenovirus for this, ignoring the obvious.

link [url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260716v6[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.23.21260716v6 DJ-By now it should be clear the CoViD-19/SARS-2 corona virus may be able to hide in the body and do damage all over the host body...Or is this part now also being denied ? Because "we have to live with it"????

Tom Wenseleers

@TWenseleers
 · 
The BA.4 & BA.5 Omicron subvariant-driven increase of new confirmed Covid cases in South Africa gives a good idea of what the endemic equilibrium will look like: a significant wave every 6 months with significant mortality & morbidity. 🧵

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2022 at 2:15am

part 3, twitter post have problems...

It's as if medicine agencies still haven't come to terms with the fact that SARS-CoV2 evolves ca 2.5x faster than the fastest evolving influenza strain. And that vaccine updates would have to be made twice as fast then as for influenza...

-

The mutations in question, L452R and F486V, were previously selected against, but now have an advantage in a population with high Omicron BA.1 immunity. And hence, will now cause a wave of reinfections.

-

This rise in cases is a little faster than expected based on the growth rate advantage of BA.4 & BA.5 per se (logistic growth advantage of 0.12 per day [0.09-0.15] 95% CLs compared to BA.2). Maybe waning immunity or behavioural or seasonal change also contribute.

The growth rate advantage of BA.4 & BA.5 over BA.2 is similar than that of BA.2 over BA.1 and of Delta over Alpha. But with caveat that BA.4 & BA.5 carry 2 mutations in the spike receptor binding domain that are predicted to confer some immune escape.

DJ the south part of the globe now is moving towards winter...with increased international airtravel however variants fly for free around the globe...








In the United Kingdom, the 7-day moving average for COVID deaths has risen to 328. Prior to the pandemic, there were 1,223 influenza deaths in 2019. Based on the current 7-day moving average, living with COVID equates to 116,768 COVID deaths per year, a 95X difference.

What is "normal"????

[url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN trying to follow 9mainly) the US situation;

Seems to be different than the recently classified lineage prevalent in Israel (though there are few overlaps) BA.2.31- key mutation: Orf1a:D3936N

DJ [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports has now 74 subvariants of Omicron...BA.2.31 is not yet included (could be split into BA.2.31.1 and BA.2.31.2) Outbreak.info ends at BA.2.16.... [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues may indicate lots more subvariants on their way...also recombinants are NOT in this list...Delta has now 250 AY. subvariants...

Given exponential growth and spread in non-human hosts "Omicron" may see "thousends of subvariants" allready...we miss most of them. 

The richest guy on the 2021 Forbes 400 owns the Washington Post. Number 2 now owns Twitter. Number 3 owns Facebook. Numbers 5 and 6 started Google. Numbers 4 and 9 started Microsoft. Number 10 owns Bloomberg. Free speech? You decide.

DJ Info-even public info/studies YOU paid for via tax is going behind paywalls...making "democracy even more democrazy" ! 

It is time we agree on new basic human rights; on healthcare, education, housing, transport...food, clean water, information...and put those rights above "a right for profit" ! 

Unbalance of wealth does result in "revolutions" history shows...why do we not learn from history, keep repeating wrong choices over and over again !

End of part 3

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2022 at 1:19am

DJ

[url]https://eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/coronacrisis/coronacijfers/coronacijfers-aantal-coronapatienten-in-het-ziekenhuis-verpleegafdeling-en-ic/[/url] or https://eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/coronacrisis/coronacijfers/coronacijfers-aantal-coronapatienten-in-het-ziekenhuis-verpleegafdeling-en-ic/ and [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/26/covid-hospitalizations-35-week[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/26/covid-hospitalizations-35-week ;The number of people who tested positive for the coronavirus at GGD test locations fell sharply last week. -The number of tests done also plummeted.

DJ Yes hospital/IC cases in NL are going down-reported/tested cases also going down...but hospital/IC cases still high...and if you stop testing you may see new tested cases going down...selfillusion...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ 83 countries report an increase of cases-even with limited/no testing...60 countries report an increase of deaths from CoViD, excess deaths numbers move much slower...but may tell a lot more. 

Global cases now at -7%, deaths at -1%...

Regions; 

Europe cases +1%, deaths +9%

North America cases +10%, deaths still at -12%

South America cases +2%, deaths -12%

Africa cases +156% !!!!!, deaths +6%

Oceania cases 0%, deaths +16%

The only reason why global numbers are not (yet) exploding Asia cases -26%, deaths -14%

However India cases +89%, China cases -21% ???? South Korea, Hong Kong had very high numbers that are still decreasing...but "a global new wave" looks to be on its way...

Beijing is doing prompt mass testing- which is good. Still on surgical masks, which could be a disaster depending on how many stealth cases there are. No one I know has been able to explain it, we have an oversupply of both KN95 masks and manufacturing capacity.

DJ China going very/to far trying to limit the spread...Yesterday april 26-reporting 52 deaths, today 48 deaths...

If 100% people were vaccinated, we wouldn't be able to calculate VE because it is a RELATIVE risk reduction. No protection would mean 78% adult #COVID deaths in a 78% vaccinated adult population. So 40% is actually not that bad: 1-(40/60)*(22/78)=81% But, not bulletproof & huge.

DJ For now vaccines may still offer protection-however we do have to take a longer term view/strategy...trying to keep cases as low as possible. Both excess deaths and Long CoViD indicate major risks...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/ukhsa-suspends-routine-covid-testing-in-hospitals-and-care-homes/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/ukhsa-suspends-routine-covid-testing-in-hospitals-and-care-homes/

More than 800 staff are due to be lost from UK health protection teams across the country in the coming months, a reduction of 40% from the current 2,000 members of staff. One insider said people were being given two weeks’ notice that their contracts were being ended early, and the way it was being dealt with was similar to the “recent situation at P&O”. The agency plans to cut jobs and suspend routine Covid testing in hospitals and care homes to save money.

Guardian report

In October 2022, when you are trying to remember where it all went really wrong for Britain, you can look back at today, 26th April 2022, and say to yourself, “yes, that was the day”.

DJ If you do not stop a virus it will spread...You can stop testing-but that does not stop infections...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/canadian-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-infected-cells-trigger-host-tissue-factors-that-leads-to-platelet-activation-and-coagulation-[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/canadian-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-infected-cells-trigger-host-tissue-factors-that-leads-to-platelet-activation-and-coagulation- 

DJ-Insanity is the new normal...there will be a very high price for that !


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 28 2022 at 3:21am

DJ

Some headlines/links;

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-mutations-in-new-emerging-ba-2,-ba-4-subvariants-are-changing-the-main-coronavirus-protease-drastically,-rendering-many-previous-antivirals-ob[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-mutations-in-new-emerging-ba-2,-ba-4-subvariants-are-changing-the-main-coronavirus-protease-drastically,-rendering-many-previous-antivirals-ob solete

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-first-human-case-of-h3n8-avian-flu-china-reported-in-china[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-first-human-case-of-h3n8-avian-flu-china-reported-in-china

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/2020-research-hepatitis-is-common-in-children-with-covid-19-mis-c/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/2020-research-hepatitis-is-common-in-children-with-covid-19-mis-c/

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/preprint-sars-cov-2-vaccination-can-elicit-a-cd8-t-cell-dominant-hepatitis/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/preprint-sars-cov-2-vaccination-can-elicit-a-cd8-t-cell-dominant-hepatitis/ ;

“Here, we report the case of a 52-year-old male, presenting with bimodal episodes of acute hepatitis, each occurring 2-3 weeks after BNT162b2 mRNA vaccination and sought to identify the underlying immune correlates. The patient received first oral budesonide, relapsed, but achieved remission under systemic steroids.”

“COVID19 vaccination can elicit a distinct T cell-dominant immune-mediated hepatitis with a unique pathomechanism associated with vaccination induced antigen-specific tissue-resident immunity requiring systemic immunosuppression.”

Journal of Hepatology article:  SARS-CoV-2 vaccination can elicit a CD8 T-cell dominant hepatitis

DJ-Hope this is very limited...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/long-covid-49-of-covid-19-survivors-have-persistant-symptoms/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/long-covid-49-of-covid-19-survivors-have-persistant-symptoms/ ;

Worldwide, 49% of COVID-19 survivors reported persistent symptoms 4 months after diagnosis, estimates a meta-analysis of 31 studies published late last week in The Journal of Infectious Diseases.

Long COVID prevalence among hospitalized patients was 54%, while it was 34% for outpatients.

Estimated global prevalence of long COVID was 43%, although estimates ranged from 9% to 81%, which the study authors said may be attributable to differences in sex, region, study population, and follow-up.

UMN.edu report


DJ the picture I have of CoViD is that long term damage could be (even) worse then the short term one

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ global trend may still be -11% for cases, -3% for deaths-with still testing at low levels. A look at "regions" already gives a much more pessimistic view;

Europe cases -9%, deaths +4%  (German cases +8%, Italy +7%)

Asia cases -24%, deaths -11%...mainly due to South Korea and Hong Kong reporting sharp drops...India cases +72%, Taiwan +247%

Africa cases +8%, deaths -10% South Africa cases +175%...

North America cases +16%, deaths -9% (US cases +19%)

South America cases -13%, deaths -15%

Oceania cases -2%, deaths +31%

Replying to 
In Denmark, the excess mortality from Influenza was as follows: 2018/19: 790 2017/18: 2,822 2016/17: 751 At this year's current run rate, "living with COVID" would result in 8,840 deaths in Denmark this year, an increase of 11X over influenza-related deaths in 2019.

DJ, Is the "Zero-CoViD policy" in China (as long as it is done in a humane way !) the best strategy ? 

The disconnect between public perception and reality is frightening. Many people believe we are safe to “get back to normal”. In reality, ending mask mandates and other mitigation strategies has unleashed a torrent of respiratory viruses on us. 🧵

in the UK deaths number +54%...last week 1,340 this 7 days growing to 2,062 and that is only counting those who died within 4 weeks after a positive test NOT the excess deaths...

An orally available #Mpro #inhibitor is effective against wild-type #SARSCoV2 and variants including #Omicron https://nature.com/articles/s41564-022-01119-7

link [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-022-01119-7[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-022-01119-7 ;Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants continue to cause waves of new infections globally. Developing effective antivirals against SARS-CoV-2 and its variants is an urgent task. The main protease (Mpro) of SARS-CoV-2 is an attractive drug target because of its central role in viral replication and its conservation among variants. We herein report a series of potent α-ketoamide-containing Mpro inhibitors obtained using the Ugi four-component reaction. 

DJ, As a non-expert I translate this kind of news-also [url]https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/nasal-vaccines-may-protect-against-respiratory-viruses-better-than-injected-vaccines/[/url] or https://medicine.yale.edu/news-article/nasal-vaccines-may-protect-against-respiratory-viruses-better-than-injected-vaccines/  "there is maybe some hope of finding an effective strategy to get out of this pandemic".....but for now CoViD-infection may increase risks for other diseases...a downward spiral...

Western denialism; "living with the virus, climate collapse, ever lasting wars" as "normal" is a total disaster...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 29 2022 at 3:25am

DJ,

In the latest news; the west is using all its means in a conventional war in Ukraine-without getting out of the conflict-it has to result in a nuclear war or "change of politics" in the west...

Pakistan/India allready facing a heatwave 45-50 C [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/carbon-dioxide-crosses-422-ppm.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/04/carbon-dioxide-crosses-422-ppm.html ...DJ Limiting-the best we can-damage of an unfolding climate crash...should be a global priority...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/indian-study-adds-more-evidence-that-the-asthma-drug-montelukast-singulair-can-inhibit-sars-cov-2-replication-and-is-a-potential-covid-19-drug[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/indian-study-adds-more-evidence-that-the-asthma-drug-montelukast-singulair-can-inhibit-sars-cov-2-replication-and-is-a-potential-covid-19-drug DJ Any good news on the CoViD pandemic is more then welcome !!!

The H5N1 human-case in the US-a few months back there was another one in the UK-for now looking mild. But it should be seen as a warning ! Covid-infection may cause a weaker immunity-giving H5N1, H3N8 (but also lots of others H7N7 etc) more chance. 

Since Ukraine did not do well in vaccinating against measles and polio there is a risk that Ukraine refugees (in need of safety-I hope they will find it !) may spread those diseases-so extra monitoring should be welcome !

This spring US wave (2nd #Omicron) officially doubled from circa 26k to 56k 7-day average. Last spring it rose 40% from 50k to 70k. Hospitalizations are now also rising, although still much lower than last year's spring levels (when they just flatlined).

DJ statistics are bad/poor...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global cases -13%, deaths -8%...Rwanda cases +400%, Namibia cases +290%, Taiwan +257%, South Africa +120%...lots of different BA.2 subvariant numbers going up...77 countries reporting an increase. Just under 645,000 new cases, 2,781 deaths being reported..

As climate change reshapes life on earth, it may also become the single biggest upstream driver of pandemic risk. Our new study in  simulates how 3,139 species will share viruses - and create new spillover risk hotspots - over the next 50 years.

link; [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04788-w[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04788-w ;At least 10,000 virus species have the capacity to infect humans, but at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals1,2. However, climate and land use change will produce novel opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically-isolated species of wildlife3,4.

 In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover—a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here, we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographic model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographic range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate change and land use scenarios for the year 2070. 

We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, driving the novel cross-species transmission of their viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Because of their unique dispersal capacity, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing, and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. 

Surprisingly, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking species’ range shifts, especially in tropical regions that harbor the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.

DJ, Disease in plants, cattle, wildlife also will "go up" =food production getting a major problem. You need politics that try to protect humanity...not "liberal fools" going for profit !

Study: "We find that liver injury, indicated by a high frequency of abnormal liver function tests, is a common clinical feature of COVID-19 in two independent cohorts of patients with COVID-19 requiring hospitalization.

DJ, limited proof that vaccinations also may see liver problems...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/preprint-sars-cov-2-vaccination-can-elicit-a-cd8-t-cell-dominant-hepatitis/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/preprint-sars-cov-2-vaccination-can-elicit-a-cd8-t-cell-dominant-hepatitis/ 

[url]https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/investigations/sas-covid-19-death-toll-may-exceed-250-000-as-govt-admits-to-possible-under-reporting-20220330[/url] or https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/investigations/sas-covid-19-death-toll-may-exceed-250-000-as-govt-admits-to-possible-under-reporting-20220330 

If governments "solve problems" by claiming "we have to live with them" we will not survive...Time for change-NOW !!

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 30 2022 at 1:57am

DJ, 

This; 

Replying to 
The CDC report is a "work of art". Their statement = "adenoviral hepatitis" but none of the 9 cases has adenoviral inclusions in liver biopsy ! And of course, no anti-SARS-CoV-2 serology 🤡 and they conclude "SARS-CoV-2 excluded". So according to the CDC, MIS-C don't exist


may be a good description of how a lot of countries deal with the pandemic; "do not test-do not tell"....

Still-even with very limited testing/reporting US cases +18%...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/south-africa/south-africa-ba-4-and-ba-5-increasing-as-a-proportion-of-sequenced-cases/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/south-africa/south-africa-ba-4-and-ba-5-increasing-as-a-proportion-of-sequenced-cases/

An increasing share of South Africa’s Covid-19 cases are the BA.4 and BA.5 sub-lineages of the Omicron variant, suggesting those might have a growth advantage over others, Prof Helen Rees said on Thursday.

Rees added at a World Health Organisation news conference that despite rising Covid-19 infections, SA was so far not seeing a huge increase in mortality or intensive care admissions.

The WHO said earlier that Africa is seeing an uptick in Covid-19 cases largely driven by a doubling in cases reported in SA.

TimesLive.co.za

-

There’s also a new preprint from South Africa researchers at CERI too: “Continued Emergence and Evolution of Omicron in South Africa: New BA.4 and BA.5  lineages”:

“..the continued discovery of genetically diverse Omicron lineages shifts the level of support for hypotheses regarding their origin, from an unsampled location to a discrete reservoir, such as human chronic infections (or even a network of chronic human infections) and/or animal reservoirs, potentially contributing to further evolution and dispersal of the virus. We are actively investigating the potential of a yet unidentified animal reservoir in the region..”

DJ South Africa cases peak every six months...Now +84%...BA.1 does NOT protect against BA.4 or BA.5 !

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues may be missing a lot (90%+ ?) of possible sequences due to lack of testing/reporting...if there are no samples to study you will not find new sequences; "so the pandemic is coming to an end"...insanity !

and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/japan-new-ba-1-ba-2-recombinant-discovered/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/japan-new-ba-1-ba-2-recombinant-discovered/

Japanese researchers have detected a new type of the Omicron variant which is a recombination of the BA.1 and more contagious BA.2 strains of the Omicron.

The newly-found sub-variant of the Omicron is different from Omicron’s XE strain which is also a mixture of the BA.1 and BA.2. The XE was first found overseas. In Japan, the XE strain was detected at Narita Airport quarantine last month.

The new sub-variant confirmed by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases is the first discovery inside and outside Japan.

NHK Japan report

DJ Japan cases -6%, deaths -4%

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-german-study-published-in-peer-reviewed-journal-indicates-that-covid-19-shots-can-induce-cd8-t-cell-dominant-hepatitis[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-german-study-published-in-peer-reviewed-journal-indicates-that-covid-19-shots-can-induce-cd8-t-cell-dominant-hepatitis (see also [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/preprint-sars-cov-2-vaccination-can-elicit-a-cd8-t-cell-dominant-hepatitis/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/preprint-sars-cov-2-vaccination-can-elicit-a-cd8-t-cell-dominant-hepatitis/ ). 

DJ Over activity of the immune system doing (limited) damage in sporadic cases. (No liver-transplant needed...still not what you want. In test-trials NO liver problems showed up, so it looks to be rare. So far liver problems when detected showed up 4 days-6 weeks after vaccination. DJ-Does vaccination (either mRNA or other) worsen already existing liver problems ? Maybe in some cases they may-so some better monitoring could be of use.).

For the US ;

Yup, that’s ~85K confirmed cases from 36/50 states

and 

BNO|Medriva Newsroom

@medriva
 · 
U.S. COVID update: Daily cases continue to rise, highest since March 1 - New cases: 84,365 - Average: 58,033 (+1,514) - States reporting: 36/50 - In hospital: 15,866 (+87) - In ICU: 1,855 (-15) - New deaths: 489 - Average: 340 (-45) More data: https://newsnodes.com/us

with BA.2.12.1 on its way to get dominant there...

[url]https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/katiecamero/long-covid?utm_source=dynamic&utm_campaign=bfsharetwitter[/url] or https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/katiecamero/long-covid?utm_source=dynamic&utm_campaign=bfsharetwitter ;Long COVID can be debilitating and occurs in up to 30% of people who have had the coronavirus, but the people experiencing it often find that doctors dismiss, ignore, or downplay their unusual symptoms.

-

When Ferrer and her husband, Nick Güthe, showed the neurologist a video of the tremors, the doctor subtly brought up his own struggles with depression, assuming that’s what was at least partly the reason for her symptoms.


“He’s gaslighting me,’” Güthe recalled his tearful wife telling him when the doctor left the room. He tried to comfort Ferrer, who told him she felt she wasn’t going to improve and that she had no path forward.

The next day, Ferrer killed herself, ending a 13-month struggle with long COVID.


DJ (like "other veterans") HCW-ers with long CoViD may end up in poverty...Governments simply "drop" Long CoViD patients...pushing money to big pharma...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2022 at 12:00am

DJ, 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/great-news-preliminary-data-shows-that-sars-cov-2-ba-2-12-1-and-ba-4-variants-have-ro-of-15-similar-to-measles-and-also-unique-pathogenesis[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/great-news-preliminary-data-shows-that-sars-cov-2-ba-2-12-1-and-ba-4-variants-have-ro-of-15-similar-to-measles-and-also-unique-pathogenesis  I may not agree with the sarcasm...However so far both BA.2.12.1 and BA.4 (and BA.5 ?) "look bad"...

The article mentions the US for BA.2.12.1-this subvariant is on its way to dominance in the US. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table weekend numbers has US cases down from +18% to +7%...others come up with higher increase of cases...

South Africa cases +67%, lots of other countries in the region also reporting an increase. Global numbers-just over 580,000 cases reported-may be 5 to 6 times the reported number...

But "insanity based new normal" will bring even less testing and reporting...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/diet/sars-cov-2-may-infect-bacteria-in-the-gut-act-as-a-bacteriophage/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/diet/sars-cov-2-may-infect-bacteria-in-the-gut-act-as-a-bacteriophage/ ;

“SARS-CoV-2 could .. infect bacteria in the gut microbiota, indicating that SARS-CoV-2 could act as a bacteriophage

“Our recent studies show that microorganisms in the human gastrointestinal tract affect the severity of COVID-19 and for the first time provide indications that the virus might replicate in gut bacteria. In order to further support these findings, in the present work, cultures of bacteria from the human microbiome and SARS-CoV-2 were analyzed by electron and fluorescence microscopy. The images presented in this article, in association with the nitrogen (15N) isotope-labeled culture medium experiment, suggest that SARS-CoV-2 could also infect bacteria in the gut microbiota, indicating that SARS-CoV-2 could act as a bacteriophage. “

Preprint: Could SARS-CoV-2 Have Bacteriophage Behavior or Induce the Activity of Other Bacteriophages?

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacteriophage[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacteriophage ;bacteriophage (/bækˈtɪərif/), also known informally as a phage (/ˈf/), is a virus that infects and replicates within bacteria and archaea. The term was derived from "bacteria" and the Greek φαγεῖν (phagein), meaning "to devour". Bacteriophages are composed of proteins that encapsulate a DNA or RNA genome, and may have structures that are either simple or elaborate. Their genomes may encode as few as four genes (e.g. MS2) and as many as hundreds of genes. Phages replicate within the bacterium following the injection of their genome into its cytoplasm.

Is that bad ? From the link;SARS-CoV-2 has become one of the most studied viruses of the last century. It was assumed that the only possible host for these types of viruses was mammalian eukaryotic cells. 

Our recent studies show that microorganisms in the human gastrointestinal tract affect the severity of COVID-19 and for the first time provide indications that the virus might replicate in gut bacteria. 

In order to further support these findings, in the present work, cultures of bacteria from the human microbiome and SARS-CoV-2 were analyzed by electron and fluorescence microscopy. 

The images presented in this article, in association with the nitrogen (15N) isotope-labeled culture medium experiment, suggest that SARS-CoV-2 could also infect bacteria in the gut microbiota, indicating that SARS-CoV-2 could act as a bacteriophage. 

Our results add new knowledge to the understanding of the mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 infection and fill gaps in the study of the interactions between SARS-CoV-2 and non-mammalian cells. These findings could be useful in suggesting specific new pharmacological solutions to support the vaccination campaign.

DJ "Affect the severity of COVID-19" does not sound like it is making the infection milder...(But again-I am NOT an expert ! Just trying to follow the story !)

Sometimes I wonder if #SARS2 minimizers are: a) dumb to understand HOW #SARS2 can do damage, b) scared to FACE THE REALITY of the #SARS2 damage, c) evil to DEFLECT the attention & OBSCURE the truth for their benefit. They differ whether they're one, two, or all of the above.

and 

There goes another Pfizer miracle for preventing symptomatic #SARS2 infections. Pharmaceutical interventions ALONE will never stop new SARS2 waves. The only question is do we accept being massively reinfected over & over again (& culled a bit) or fight it.

link [url]https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizers-covid-19-pill-failed-study-testing-its-preventative-use-11651276069[/url] or https://www.wsj.com/articles/pfizers-covid-19-pill-failed-study-testing-its-preventative-use-11651276069 DJ, BA.4 seems to be even spreading in host recently recovering from BA.2 infections...

BA.2.12.1 is the top circulating lineage in the #UnitedStates  It has significant growth advantage over other circulating lineages in #USA  Cov-spectrum predicts a 47% growth advantage over BA.2* (over last three months) Get #Boosted and #MaskUp!


Image
Quote Tweet







Raj Rajnarayanan

@RajlabN
 · 
#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 23.39% BA.2.12.1, <- Spike:L452Q 19.16% BA.2,   14.85% BA.2.9, 12.25% BA.2.10, 10.79% BA.2.12, 9.43% BA.2.3 and   2.33% BA.1.1   Tracker (by State): http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7  #OmicronUpdates 04/30/22
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DJ...lots of warnings...but like with climate collapse, nuclear war risks, neo-con dictatorship...not enough people listening...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2022 at 11:21pm

Limited new info,

Keep it simple for today;

China most likely BA.2.2 and BA.2.3 (and ?) inceasing

India cases +42% 

Southern Africa BA.4 (and BA.5 ?) increasing

US BA.2.12.1 going up...

Some countries report cases going down more then 50%-often meaning a decrease in testing/reporting..

Will Europe see another wave ? Yes-I expect cases to go up later on this month in NL...It may be a new-other subvariant...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/596[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/596 ;

As highlighted by @silcn in #499 there are sublineages of BA.2.12 with S:L452Q, circulating mainly in Canada, which seem to be rooted differently from the main Ba.2.12.1 designated from #499 that is characterized by T15009C and C21721T

Here the proposal (Asking @AngieHinrichs @corneliusroemer @chrisruis if they arent just tree building issues, but i dont think so)

First sublineage of BA.2.12, that subsequently acquired S:L452Q, is BA.2.12 + C27654T + C16726T (Orf1b:1087Y)
424sequences (347 from Canada , 70 from Usa)
Covspectrum

Second sublineage of BA.2.12 , that subsequently acquired S:L452Q, is Ba.2.12 + A6107G(orf1a:1948E)
305 Seqs (154 from Canada 138 from USA)

DJ; The L452Q mutation seems to be the "motor' behind cases going up...

[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=IND[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=IND "BA.2" 69% of India cases, BA.2.23 at 3% pushing up numbers in India ? (Latest info april 20)

Finland had cases going up high speed-but [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FIN&dark=true[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FIN&dark=true april 17 latest info does not help...cases there now -56%...

Maybe more later...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 03 2022 at 12:09am

DJ,

Once this forum was named "Avian Flu Talk' and with good reason-here in NL another bird-flu case has been reported. This year may have seen over a million birds being killed because of high spread of (several types of) "Avian Flu"...the global picture is not any better...resulting in higher prices for eggs-pushing up food prices even further. 

Limited human cases of Avian Flu so far...however "Flu-Rona" reported this year a.o. in Brazil, Israel but also in NL should be a warning. New types of CoViD-with even higher spread-getting "mixed" (due to lower immune protection) with the spread of Avian Flu types do increase the risks for Avian-flu jumping into "non-bird hosts"...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-2-12-1/usa-ba-2-12-1-has-transmission-advantage-of-25-over-ba-2/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-2-12-1/usa-ba-2-12-1-has-transmission-advantage-of-25-over-ba-2/

CDC: “BA.2.12.1 might have a transmission advantage of about 25% over the BA.2 sub variant… The BA.2.12.1 sub variant makes up nearly 30% of sequences identified nationally.” 

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky:  “Right now, BA.1 is only about 3% of the sequences identified. We are now more commonly finding the BA.2 Omicron sub variant, which makes up about 68% of circulating virus. More recently, we’re finding the BA.2.12.1 sub variant, which was first identified in upstate New York, and which makes up nearly 30% of sequences identified nationally. We are just starting to learn about the impact of BA 2.12.1.”

“It appears [BA.2.12.1] might have a transmission advantage of about 25% over the BA.2 sub variant. Additional evaluation is currently underway to understand the impact of BA.2.12.1 on vaccine effectiveness.”

CDC: Transcript for CDC Media Telebriefing: Update on COVID-19, 26th April 2022

 

Although BA.2.12.1 has a strong showing in certain areas of the US, it looks like it may be losing some momentum nationally compared to BA.2.9 using Raj Rajnarayanan’s Covid lineage tracker:

-

This Trevor Bedford thread outlines why BA.2.12.1, BA.4 and BA.5 could present a problem going forward:

We're now starting to see the evolution of new potentially impactful sublineages of Omicron with particular focus on mutations at spike residue 452. Here, I'd like to highlight lineages B.2.12.1 in New York, as well as BA.4 and BA.5 in South Africa. 1/17

DJ-Since we almost stopped testing-sequencing may miss most developments...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table at best may give some indications. The weekend=no reporting=low statistics may be corrected mid-week..But "ignoring the problem" (like used in climate collapse) is the new "normal insanity"...with increasing risks;

AGAIN !!! I am not an expert but I do see a "line" from the global African Swine Fever in 2018-2020 to CoViD-19, starting most likely already in the spring of 2019 in Africa (not in China ! The Wuhan-october military games in 2019 may have seen massive spread...but the origins may have been in southern Africa) with now all kinds of bird flu showing up (it does not have to be the H5N1-type The Chinese H3N8 story should be a warning !!!). 

-Another problem [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/netherlands-518-healthcare-workers-sacked-for-having-long-covid/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/netherlands-518-healthcare-workers-sacked-for-having-long-covid/

518 Dutch healthcare workers have lost their jobs because they suffer from Long Covid and have been off work sick for two years, the Dutch FNV trade union federation said on Friday.

The public health institute RIVM estimates 238,000 healthcare workers caught coronavirus. Most of the Long Covid reports they have had come from people who work in nursing homes or as home nurses.

Permanent employees are paid at least 70% of their salary for two years if they become unable to work through ill health, although some employers increase this to 100%. After two years, however, they can be sacked and then have to claim invalidity benefit. In some cases that will be half that of their original salary.

Dutchnews.nl report

DJ; There is a shortage of doctors in the public insurance sector; this may delay Long CoViD cases getting "any form of income". NL has a very bad reputation for "not clear diseases" -If they can not find a thing people suffering from ME-CFS, chronic Q-fever, Lyme disease and now Long CoViD end up in poverty-may lose their housing etc...

(DJ-NL has "to many complex laws" and seem to be unable to reforms...the rich did get richer; 2,000 of the NL rich now "own" more then the 10 million NL poor. Spending on the public sector did decrease under right wing governments-resulting in LESS beds in hospital, less HCW-ers...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/26/netherlands-prepared-covid-19-outbreak-fall-experts[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/04/26/netherlands-prepared-covid-19-outbreak-fall-experts ;With hardly any restrictions in place, the coronavirus seems to have slipped from public consciousness. But the virus is expected to revive in the autumn, and the Netherlands is not prepared, AD reported after speaking to experts. 

DJ I think with many agressive new (sub) variants around NL cases will go up this month-only a cover-up by further decreasing testing may be able to hide this "inconveniant truth"...)

U.S. COVID update: Daily cases at highest level since February, up 22% from last week - New cases: 76,040 - Average: 61,694 (+1,985) - States reporting: 29/50 - In hospital: 16,453 (+147) - In ICU: 1,930 (-1) - New deaths: 324 - Average: 352 (+10) More: https://newsnodes.com/us

DJ Worldometer has US cases +3%....

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DJ,

Trying to get some grip on the pandemic story [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table 67 countries reporting an increase of cases, 36 have an increase of reported CoViD deaths-but countries with above 'normal" excess deaths must be much higher. 

India cases +26%, South Africa +22%, Brazil +6%, US +4%, Mexico +1%....may give somewhat of an indication...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues also trying to get some grip. Point is that if you simply drop most testing-sequencing will give a much less clear vision of what is happening...

In climate change the idea is to keep temperature rise under 1,5C...so to claim they are doing that maybe "lift the baseline" to 1900-everything before that is "pre-industrial"...If you would use a baseline of 1750-1700 as 'pre-industrial" you end up at a temperature rise far over 2C..."Much to costly for the economy"...

A realistic number of new daily cases would be around 3 million per day...so decrease testing to keep the numbers at 500,000 to 600,000 per day to "save the economy/profits"...insanity...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/france-excludes-sars-cov-2-in-case-definition-file-for-hepatitis-in-kids/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/france-excludes-sars-cov-2-in-case-definition-file-for-hepatitis-in-kids/In a bizarre twist to the hepatitis in children story we covered earlier this week, we have learned that the French Health Department are now specifically excluding SARS-CoV-2 virus infections as a possible cause for hepatitis in the official case definition file.

DJ Policies based on lies only create a bigger disaster...CoViD does damage alover the body-including the liver...If you claim "CoViD does not kill" you may claim lots of extra deaths from organ faillure, hearthproblems, pneumonia...so excess deaths going up-start promoting a "healthier lifestyle" to save profits...

The same insanity as what climate change means for holidaydestinations to avoid the question of global foodshortages per 2030...

My goal in scenario's was to "get a perspective on the pandemic" if possible based on more then just twitter...Insane leaders starting insane wars to steal oil and gas and cover up their own corruption get away with even more lies on this pandemic. That is what selfdestruction looks like....

[url]https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nose-spray-vaccines-could-quash-covid-virus-variants/[/url] or https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/nose-spray-vaccines-could-quash-covid-virus-variants/ ;

To block infections entirely, scientists want to deliver inoculations to the site where the virus first makes contact: the nose. People could simply spray the vaccines up their nostrils at home, making the preparation much easier to administer. There are eight of these nasal vaccines in clinical development now and three in phase 3 clinical trials, where they are being tested in large groups of people. But making these vaccines has proven to be slow going because of the challenges of creating formulations for this unfamiliar route that are both safe and effective.

DJ I think nasal vaccines are "good news". And yes-it is taking a lot of time...but they maybe could be an answer-if we did not ruin it by going for other, less effective vaccines earlier...Still a bit of good news...

Q: Why can nasal vaccines do? A:“Nasal sprays assemble a separate set of antibodies known as immunoglobulin A (IgA). These populate the spongy mucosal tissues of the nose, mouth and throat, where the COVID-causing coronavirus first lands." #PrimeandSpike

So there is some perspective...even with CoViD now being widespread also in non human hosts. CoViD weakening defenses against other diseases (like "bird flu"). 

[url]https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3086177/coronavirus-uses-same-strategy-hiv-dodge-immune-response-chinese[/url] or https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3086177/coronavirus-uses-same-strategy-hiv-dodge-immune-response-chinese study finds; 

  • Both viruses remove marker molecules on surface of an infected cell that are used to identify invaders, according to Chinese researchers
  • This commonality could mean Sars-CoV-2 may be around for some time, they say

DJ At best nasal vaccines may be part of a way out....But offering free airtravel around the globe for variants is unwise...We are much to deep into this crisis to expect to be out of it in just a few years...Looking at the bigger picture of further-unstopped-climate collapse, global wars we-as humans-are killing ourselves. 

If we-as humans-want to survive we have to stop destroying the planet we live on. 

I'm old enough to remember when I was told by many Virologists - that all the BA.x variants were a good sign because BA.1 would provide immunity. That was April.

From the stone-age to the stupid-age...to get the rich even more rich ! Insanity as the new normal...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 04 2022 at 12:01am

DJ, 

This pandemic was a great bussiness oppertunity ! How to increase profits from a pandemic ! 









Story from a Paxlovid user— was positive to til 6, tested negative days 7-12. Doctor said he’s not contagious anymore—he didn’t buy that because of Paxlovid rebound🏀 risk. He tests positive again on day 13 & symptomatic—thankfully protects his pregnant wife from #COVID19!

So many claims were made if not by pharma companies then by "politics/media"-bloc. "Vaccines will save us" (Pharma never made that claim-politics did...) so "reopen for profit"...Anti-virals would do wonders-more for profit then disease...China claiming cases now -26%...maybe "zero-CoViD" turns out to be more effective ? 

Yes-it is criminal to "kill pets" , to separate children from parents...but is it better to "let the virus do its thing" and see millions die ? 

16) reminder— YOU CAN BE SILENTLU INFECTIOUS with Omicron before you test positive for it! This is what happened at the #WHCD and many other outbreaks. You need more than just testing (which is good like a rake with leaves 🍁, but imperfect wall).

This should have been known by now ? Why the White House Correspondents Dinner may be yet another mass-spread event...We may not like it-but not liking it is not an answer...

Tracking the rise of #Omicron lineages in #NewYorkCity  -#15DayTrends


Image









See also [url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1521667556288962560/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1521667556288962560/photo/1 and [url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1521666855462707200/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1521666855462707200/photo/1 in New York City 529 BA.2.12.1, but also 7 BA.4 and 1 BA.5 cases detected. The idea of just one dominant sub-variant pushing numbers up is "outdated"...

DJ-The global picture will see a variation of dominant sub-variants; US BA.2.12.1, Southern Africa BA.4, China, India maybe BA.2.2/BA.2.3 are pushing up numbers...In general cases/testing is decreasing in Europe. But it may miss changes in dominant sub-variants. I expect Europe to see cases-later on hospital cases-going up again this month-next month. [url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time may give a better early warning then (lack of) testing...

[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps again has "moderate excess deaths" for NL/Belgium 4-7% higher then expected-week 15. Worldometer NL deaths -58%...for CoViD-deaths...Belgium -16%. Finland deaths now +149% after their last "local wave"...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/05/03/positive-covid-continues-fall-fewer-people-get-tested[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/05/03/positive-covid-continues-fall-fewer-people-get-tested ;

The number of positive coronavirus tests fell again last week. The National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) registered 10,596 between Tuesday morning last week and Tuesday morning this week. In the seven days before that, the weekly total was 16,054 positive tests.

Fewer and fewer people are getting tested at the GGD. In the week of March 21, over 331,000 went to a GGD test location. A month later, in the week of April 18, that dropped to nearly 25,000. Since April 11, the government dropped the advice to get a positive self-test confirmed by the GGD. In the past week, the GGDs did 16,130 Covid-19 tests. 

"Don't test, don't tell"-in NL...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 05 2022 at 12:19am

DJ, 

Statistics [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table depend on testing&reporting, a willingness to see a problem...As expected mid-week numbers a bit higher-in weekends even less testing and reporting. Global cases would be -18%; last week 4,5 million cases being reported; this last 7 days close to 3,7 million...

Maybe if we just stopped all the testing we would get "pre-pandemic"; simply ignore the problem...start world war three...It is very sad that "politics" only is able to kick cans down the road...NOT solving major problems...Undermining democracy-in the name of democracy....the main reason for this pandemic is political inaction "saving the economy=profits"...

India cases +20%, Brazil +19%, US +14%, South Africa +7%, Philippines +4%...China cases -30%...At best these statistics give some indications...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/japanese-study-reveals-that-new-sars-cov-2-variants-like-ba-2-11--ba-2-12-1,-ba-4-and-ba-5-are-exhibiting-greater-resistance-to-existing-monoclonal-dr[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/japanese-study-reveals-that-new-sars-cov-2-variants-like-ba-2-11--ba-2-12-1,-ba-4-and-ba-5-are-exhibiting-greater-resistance-to-existing-monoclonal-dr ugs

and 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/harvard-and-us-fda-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-omicron-ba-2-sublineage-to-be-more-immune-evasive,-more-fusogenic,-more-transmissible-and-replicates-fa[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/harvard-and-us-fda-study-finds-that-sars-cov-2-omicron-ba-2-sublineage-to-be-more-immune-evasive,-more-fusogenic,-more-transmissible-and-replicates-fa ster.

...but if you do not test...deny people getting ill, dying...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/china-s-zero-covid-strategy-failing-as-various-variants-now-not-only-in-shanghai-and-beijing-but-spreading-fast-in-jilin,-henan,-zhejiang,-shandong-an[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/china-s-zero-covid-strategy-failing-as-various-variants-now-not-only-in-shanghai-and-beijing-but-spreading-fast-in-jilin,-henan,-zhejiang,-shandong-an hui.

DJ-If there is any realism in Chinese statistics my conclusion would be the "Zero-CoViD" strategy does work...but new variants are much harder to detect...So-if you do not want "permanent lockdowns" you may end up with "freedom" meaning the virus spreading, mutating, killing....

In the climate debate [url]https://guymcpherson.com/[/url] or https://guymcpherson.com/ "damned if you do, damned if you don't"....this pandemic is "out of control"...

[url]https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1521547479749177349[/url] or https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1521547479749177349 on the next wave for the UK...In short; new subvariants (BA.2.12.1 in the US, BA.4/BA.5 in Africa) are increasing-and previous BA.2 infection may not offer (enough) immunity...DJ-The speed with wich the sub-variants evolve [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues simply means Europe will see a wave "on its own" a step further then the present US and African subvariants...(we do not know what is happening in Asia). 

In NL the R0 is increasing slowly (R0 from 0,6 to 0,7...but it is the trend that matters...). 

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part 2, 








#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 22.98% Null* 21.08% BA.2.12.1, 17.33% BA.2 and 11.35% BA.2.9 *undesignated Omicron lineage - most likely designated by tomorrow Tracker (by location): http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7

and 

22.98% of undesignated sequences! 1,138 from #Massachusetts alone Have Omicron signature mutations - most likely will be assigned tomorrow.

DJ undesignated could still translate to known sub-variants with some mutations....but it may indicate fast spreading newer sub-variant. We will know more today (for the US). 

BNO|Medriva Newsroom

@medriva
 · 
Reporters and staffers from CNN, ABC, NBC, CBS, Politico, and other news organizations test positive for COVID-19 after White House Correspondents' Dinner; exact number unknown - CNN

....what can I say....

Covid infection causes autoimmunity. Autoimmunity is not a good thing. It is when the immune system mistakes self for an enemy, and attacks its own healthy cells, tissues and molecules. 

...it is bad ! We may not have seen how bad it may get yet....

[url]https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/new-covid-xe-variant-makes-23858633[/url] or https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/new-covid-xe-variant-makes-23858633 ;

Professor Kinane, Leading Immunologist and Founding Scientist of Cignpost Diagnostics, told The Mirror that data is showing people testing positive for 10 or more days with this variant. He warned this means the virus has the ability to spread more widely - and said this coupled with the scrapping of free testing could leave vulnerable groups even more vulnerable.

DJ, testing-detection is getting harder as well...






BNO|Medriva Newsroom

@medriva
 · 
U.S. COVID update: Death toll hits 1 million, nearly 120,000 new cases - New cases: 119,865 - Average: 67,159 (+3,128) - States reporting: 43/50 - In hospital: 17,802 (+757) - In ICU: 2,034 (+48) - New deaths: 767 - Average: 374 (+12) More data: https://newsnodes.com/us

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BREAKING: U.S. reports more than 100,000 new coronavirus cases, highest since February

DJ Worldometer mentioned "only" 71,798 new US cases for wednesday, 64,301 tuesday....

Interesting development to watch for the next couple of weeks in Gauteng excess deaths, the current (BA.4) vs. the last (BA.1) wave.

Lots of Africa see cases go up-Africa trend for cases is +4%, deaths-still -55%...








My oped in today's  as the BA.2.12.1 variant takes hold in the US It keeps getting fitter and more transmissible, while our human qualities of fatigue and complacency feed right into the virus’s remarkable opportunism https://latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-05-04/covid-variants-vaccines-ineffective-omicron-ba-2-12-1-ba-4-ba-5

So, I did expect we may see several subvariants spreading in several regions resulting in lots of peaks-with decreasing immunity...I mentioned it some months ago-hate to be correct ! 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cell%E2%80%93cell_fusogens[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cell%E2%80%93cell_fusogens "fusogenic" should be a worry !

DJ-More auto-immune diseases (and there are lots of them !!!) and weaker-general-immunity; giving other diseases/infections (much) more room are "bad news"....

Do not want to spoil your day/mood...so I keep it with this...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 05 2022 at 10:51pm

DJ,

I did write something on [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/delta/israel-the-next-covid-wave-could-be-delta/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/delta/israel-the-next-covid-wave-could-be-delta/ in latests news. "New variants" should not mean ignoring the "older variants"...Certainly in people/hosts that may have a virus for a longer time (1 year +) we may see surprises. 

US deer seem to have -most often-the early "Wuhan-wild-type" of CoViD. Most likely in India Delta may still be around in higher levels in more remote area's-and maybe could even return if there is "an opening".

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/deaths/who-14-9-million-excess-deaths-associated-with-the-covid-19/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/deaths/who-14-9-million-excess-deaths-associated-with-the-covid-19/

New estimates from the World Health Organization (WHO) show that the full death toll associated directly or indirectly with the COVID-19 pandemic (described as “excess mortality”) between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021 was approximately 14.9 million (range 13.3 million to 16.6 million).  

Most of the excess deaths (84%) are concentrated in South-East Asia, Europe, and the Americas. Some 68% of excess deaths are concentrated in just 10 countries globally. Middle-income countries account for 81% of the 14.9 million excess deaths (53% in lower-middle-income countries and 28% in upper-middle-income countries) over the 24-month period, with high-income and low-income countries each accounting for 15% and 4%, respectively.

WHO: 14.9 million excess deaths associated with the COVID-19

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/lancet-18-million-dead-from-the-sars-cov-2-pandemic/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/lancet-18-million-dead-from-the-sars-cov-2-pandemic/ 

DJ, The US now has over 1 million CoViD deaths-India may be over 5 million-most not reported. Of course the WHO/Lancet numbers go to the end of last year-2021. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ is getting close to 6,3 million-reported-CoViD deaths. 

A lot of people live in countries with "limited civil administration on births and deaths"...so a lot of people are "missed"...

India would have 373 deaths from CoViD per million-a total of over 500,000-in official statistics. The US has 3,060 deaths per million...that may be a more realistic number. If you put the global population at 8 billion then 0,3% of that would make 24 million...If "poor countries" do much worse then the US number maybe up to 30 million CoViD deaths so far ? 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-sars-cov-2-directly-infects-the-pancreatic-islets-and-causes-pancreatic-inflammation-that-can-lead-to-post-covid-hyperglycemia-and-other-issu[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-sars-cov-2-directly-infects-the-pancreatic-islets-and-causes-pancreatic-inflammation-that-can-lead-to-post-covid-hyperglycemia-and-other-issu DJ-The severity of the pandemic is more then the people that die from it; lots of people may suffer permanent damage from the infection(s). 

FDA limits #JnJ vaccine to only those who can't receive other vaccines due to risk of thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS), aka vaccine-induced thrombocytic thrombocytopenia (VITT), aka the rare vaccine clot syndrome we've known about since 3/2021

Vaccines have limits/risks. DJ-newer subvariants may be better in evading both testing and vaccine/immunity. We may be getting closer to a point where vaccine risks become to high compared to the protection they may offer against new subvariants. In that scenario vaccines bring risks while not doing the expected job...

Officials leaving everyone to make their own “personal choices” about exposure to and transmission of the third leading cause of death actually means far fewer choices for those at high risk, those who want to avoid long covid and those who want to protect the health of others.

Again-this pandemic is the outcome of political faillure ! It could-and should-have been stopped in january 2020 !








Two recently published studies show the association between persistent RNA and antigen of SARS-CoV-2 in the gut and post-acute COVID-19 symptoms. IMO this is important evidence, so in this thread I will go over these two studies and their implications

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This study hasn’t attempted to cultivate the virus from stool samples, so we don’t really know whether the PCR positivity is linked to infectious virus. However, it’s improbable that RNA can live in stool for 7 months without replication.

Also again-once the virus is in-it may be hard to get rid of...

Laura Miers

@LauraMiers
 · 
Claims of BA.1 being mild were “mostly a marketing ploy.” Measuring severity relative to each other, Delta vs. Omicron: “…It’s about the same severity. There’s almost no difference.”

Downplaying risks is increasing risks...








Tracking rising #SARSCoV2 lineages in #NewYork  BA.2, BA.2.12.1 are the top circulating lineages in NY NYC is also an emerging BA.4 hotspot Get #Boosted#MaskUP#Ventilate

The idea of "one dominant subvariant" by now is wrong ! We may see SEVERAL subvariants spreading, people catching BOTH BA.2.12.1 AND BA.4...making them more vulnerable for other diseases (and increasing the spread of those diseases). Limited/no testing makes sequencing/monitoring harder if not impossible...








Following Covid-19, there has been a significant drop in life expectancy in the EU. Hardest hit regions: Madrid (-3,5), Lombardia (-2,8) and Castilla la Mancha (-2,8).


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Following Covid-19, there has been a significant drop in life expectancy in the EU. Hardest hit regions: Madrid (-3,5), Lombardia (-2,8) and Castilla la Mancha (-2,8).


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See also [url]https://twitter.com/xruiztru/status/1520291827882110979/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/xruiztru/status/1520291827882110979/photo/1 

End of part 1, maybe later on a part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 06 2022 at 9:17pm

DJ, 

Lots of news-but I try to get some-global-perspective. A pandemic is NOT over if cases are going down in one country, up in other countries...a pandemic  is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. A widespread endemic disease with a stable number of infected individuals is not a pandemic. Widespread endemic diseases with a stable number of infected individuals such as recurrences of seasonal influenza are generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide.

from [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic ...So if cases go down in the US (4% of global population) it is NOT the end of a pandemic ! By the way [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table US cases +14%...

"Media" will keep making non-sense claims-ignoring the definition of "pandemic"...

Worldwide 60 countries report an increase of cases. The reported number-just under half a million-x6 may give a bit of perspective...so daily cases may be around 3 million-but we stopped most of the testing...

North America cases +7%, South America +2%, Africa +18%, Oceania +0,2%...Europe and Asia "push global numbers" to -17%. 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/france-persistent-alpha-variant-infection-in-immunosuppressed-patient/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/france-persistent-alpha-variant-infection-in-immunosuppressed-patient/

“We describe persistent circulation of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant in an immunosuppressed patient in France during February 2022. The virus had a new pattern of mutation accumulation. The ongoing circulation of previous variants of concern could lead to re-emergence of variants with the potential to propagate future waves of infection.”

An 84-year-old woman with evolutive mantle cell lymphoma who was receiving maintenance rituximab and lenalidomide treatment was admitted to the hospital on May 17, 2021. She had asthenia, fever, and hypoxia (93% oxygen saturation). At admission (day 0), she tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA (Figure). She had received 2 vaccine doses 84 and 66 days before admission. She did not have respiratory symptoms, but a chest computed tomography scan showed ground-glass opacities in her lungs.

At days 0, 101, 208, and 234, multiplex mutation-specific reverse transcription PCR revealed the absence of spike amino acid mutations E484Q, E484K, and L452R, and K417N was not detected on days 208 and 234, suggesting that the patient was not infected with Delta or Omicron variants, the 2 dominant variants in France at the time. These results suggested that the patient was infected with the Alpha variant, which was the dominant variant circulating when she first tested positive.

The SARS-CoV-2 mutational pattern in this immunosuppressed patient adds several new mutations to the Alpha variant characteristic. Although earlier samples were not available for sequencing, mutations in later samples align with an ongoing selection process. The mutations we observed share similarities with those observed in other VOCs and variants of interest, pointing to evolutionary convergence, such as spike del241–247, which also is found in part in the Beta variant. Several mutations that likely play a role in immune evasion were selected in the spike nucleocapsid terminal domain (e.g., K77E, S248F, and del14–18) and receptor-binding domain (L452M).

This report highlights the need to reinforce precautions to avert nosocomial and community transmission involving immunocompromised patients, who might shed older SARS-CoV-2 variants longer.

CDC: Persistent SARS-CoV-2 Alpha Variant Infection in Immunosuppressed Patient, France, February 2022

DJ, Yesterday [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/delta/israel-the-next-covid-wave-could-be-delta/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/delta/israel-the-next-covid-wave-could-be-delta/ there was a warning for "Delta" , today another warning "Alpha" could be still around (in a mutated form) ...more isolated places on the globe may see "older/other" variants spreading. Those variants may catch a mutation and "transport" to become a problem again...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/ukhsa-hepatitis-in-kids-revised-hypotheses-includes-new-sars-cov-2-variant/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/ukhsa-hepatitis-in-kids-revised-hypotheses-includes-new-sars-cov-2-variant/ ...DJ-CoViD can do damage all over the body-hepatitis was reported earlier as CoViD linked in a.o. India...you do not need a "new variant" (of CoViD or Adeno-virus) -the "older" variants were already related with hepatitis...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/brazil-2-cases-of-xq-omicron-recombinant-reported/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/brazil-2-cases-of-xq-omicron-recombinant-reported/

Two cases of the subvariant of Covid-19 called Omicron XQ were registered in São Paulo this Thursday, 5th May 2022. These are the first diagnoses of this version of the strain in Brazil.

Omicron XQ is the combination of sublineages BA.1.1 and BA.2 of the Omicron variant.

Olhardigital.com.br report (in Portuguese)

DJ, Recombinant-variants seem to be limited-however they may play a role in development of new subvariants. Some unique mutations from the recombinant may spread-without the recombinant itself becoming "large". 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-chinese-scientists-discover-that-sars-cov-2-causes-dysregulation-of-host-mirnas-and-also-produces-novel-mirnas,-resulting-in-varying-clinical[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-chinese-scientists-discover-that-sars-cov-2-causes-dysregulation-of-host-mirnas-and-also-produces-novel-mirnas,-resulting-in-varying-clinical manifestations.

A link; [url]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3558168/[/url] or https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3558168/MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are short RNA molecules which bind to target mRNAs, resulting in translational repression and gene silencing and are found in all eukaryotic cells. Approximately 2200 miRNA genes have been reported to exist in the mammalian genome, from which over 1000 belong to the human genome. Many major cellular functions such as development, differentiation, growth, and metabolism are known to be regulated by miRNAs. Proximity to other genes in the genome and their locations in introns of coding genes, noncoding genes and exons have been reported to have a major influence on the level of gene expressions in eukaryotic cells. miRNAs are well conserved in eukaryotic system and are believed to be an essential and evolutionary ancient component of gene regulatory networks. Therefore, in recent years miRNAs have been studied as a likely candidate for involvement in most biologic processes and have been implicated in many human diseases.


DJ "Micro-RNA's" are a new discovery; they "help" cells to do "their job". CoViD may result in "micro-RNA" not doing the job in a way they should. Long CoViD may be a result of that.








Washington, D.C. appears to have stopped reporting COVID-19 data: No updates since April 27

Is NOT the way to deal with a pandemic !

A huge jump to 7% in Amsterdam for BA.4/5 (L452R)! For comparison, only 6/1861 samples on GISAID since the 10th of April have that mutation of which 4 were BA.4 and only 1 BA.5. Be aware that mostly vulnerable people and their caretakers, plus those unboostered, get tested now.
ARGOSconsortium

@ARGOSamsterdam
 · 
A total of 181 randomly selected SARS-CoV-2 positive samples, collected 2nd&4th May 2022 at @GGDAmsterdam testing facilities, 0/181(0%) indicated a BA.1-like, 168/181(93%) a BA.2-like and 13/181(7%) a BA.4/5-like variant. Thanks to @amsterdamumc & @inBiome.

DJ So BA.4/5 may be increasing in NL ???? Or will BA.2.12.1 (US variant-most NYC) become dominant ? Or still another ? NL cases -8% and "very limited testing", as good as no restrictions...NL not only finding more L452R mutations but also some L452M and L452Q mutations...As I did expect-NL does not have to wait till after summer for another wave...








Replying to 
We performed rapid full genome sequencing on 8 of the 13 samples which identified 5/8 as a BA.5-variant and 3/8 as a BA.4 variant. Sequences have been uploaded to GISAID.

DJ; It may stay limited-however it could also be a signal that BA.4/5 -L452 mutations are increasing worldwide...









It's not very different to climate change. Do we really think if we really want to deal with the climate crisis that there is a 'return to normal'. There isn't- that's just denial. We need to change the way we live. And that's true of COVID-19 as well.

DJ, and politics, governments have to do a much better job-because they failed and continu to fail...denial is NOT an answer !

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 06 2022 at 10:03pm

part 2








#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 46.43% BA.2, 22.78% BA.2.12.1^**, 6.69% BA.2.12^, 7.34% BA.2.3 and 6.87% BA.2.9   ^adjusted for 0.97% S:L452Q in BA.2.12 Tracker (by location): http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7


and [url]https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard[/url] or https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard For the US BA.4=0,23%, BA.5=0,08%

Tracking rising #SARSCoV2 lineages in #NewYork  BA.2, BA.2.12.1 are the top circulating lineages in NY NYC is also an emerging BA.4 hotspot Get #Boosted#MaskUP#Ventilate

DJ; We now see several different sub-variants increasing in different parts of the globe. Some scenario's;

-"old one" is we may see one sub-variant becoming dominant worldwide (BA.4 ?)

- "mix" is we will see regional peaks-cases going up with different subvariants-each region may get its "own" dominant subvariant (US BA.2.12.1, Africa BA.4/5, Asia BA.2.2/2.3)

-"chaos" -I think most likely-and most dangerous-BA.2.12.1 not giving protection aganist BA.4/5...so we see BOTH subvariants "explode" with lots of new recombinations, subvariants..another phase in this pandemic...

-"max denial"; politics increasing conflicts-to avoid any discussion on crises like climate "change" and pandemics...because politics failed !









New Study: Omicron is as deadly as previous variants according to study of 130,000 COVID patients SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant is as Deadly as Previous Waves After Adjusting for Vaccinations, Demographics, and Comorbidities

I am generally forward, rather than backward, looking, but I think it is appropriate for us to compile a list of the authorities who said omicron was "mild" before studies were done, and are misleading us.

Because we NEED a strategy not denial ! [url]https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1601788/v1[/url] or https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1601788/v1 ; The B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has previously been reported as more transmissible, but less severe than other SARS-CoV-2 variants. To test this assumption, we linked state-level vaccination data with quality-controlled electronic health records from a large healthcare system, including 13 hospitals, in Massachusetts, USA. We then performed a weighted case-control study to compare risks of hospital admission and mortality across the SARS-CoV-2 waves in over 130,000 COVID patients. Although the unadjusted rates of hospital admission and mortality appeared to be higher in previous waves compared to the Omicron period, after adjusting for confounders including various demographics, Charlson comorbidity index scores, and vaccination status (and holding the healthcare utilization constant), we found that the risks of hospitalization and mortality were nearly identical between periods. Our analysis suggests that the intrinsic severity of the Omicron variant may be as severe as previous variants.

"Saving the economy" is killing millions of people !!!! But still we "push for herd-immunity" even when we by now know there is NOT any herd immunity !








I think some people are vying for fascist scientific leadership and if childrens hepatitis were indeed due to covid, they would be "embarrassed" (or perhaps proud?)


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Again-this pandemic IS political ! Again-going for "herd immunity" is insane !!!! But "crazy is the new normal "? 

For the first time, ONS have also published proportion of triple vaxxed people who then report long covid (and by variant). The headline news is it's about 8%-9% of people - even after boosters. About 5%-6% say it's impacting their life. That's high. 9/14

After "summer will save us" the story was "vaccines will save us"...no need for restrictions..."freedom-most for the virus" -profit (economy) above human lives...

DJ We need leaders, politicians that work for ALL of the population-not just the rich 0,1% ! Democracy-not "democrazy"!-NOW !

End of part 2....


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 07 2022 at 10:00pm

DJ,

Again-I am NOT at all a medical expert-just trying to make some sense of stories like [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-uk-health-authorities-confirms-first-case-of-monkey-pox-imported-from-nigeria-with-more-individuals-under-investigation[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-uk-health-authorities-confirms-first-case-of-monkey-pox-imported-from-nigeria-with-more-individuals-under-investigation DJ-CoViD in Africa in a 5th wave. Does weakened immunity due to (post/long) CoViD increase risks for other diseases, like forms of birdflu and monkeypox ?

Biobot #COVID19 wastewater monitoring in the US still finding #Delta in the South in substantial numbers. It even increased its prevalence since the last time I checked from 0.7% > 0.9%, and also reappeared in the Midwest.

Israel did warn "Delta" was NOT gone. Sequencing never stopped for a full 100% finding Delta-variant cases. [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-researchers-warn-of-new-international-covid-wave-driven-by-delta-comeback/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-researchers-warn-of-new-international-covid-wave-driven-by-delta-comeback/ 

DJ-Most likely Delta could return in MANY !!! different ways-co-infections with Omicron, but also new recombinations...developing ways to hide in hosts longer-resulting in higher risk of longer viral spread. With almost a stop in testing sequencing will miss most spread of all kind of new mutations and subvariants...








Clear signs of 5th wave in SA, the positivity ratio is as high as the previous 4 waves! Please take care and do not be fooled that a new variant is needed to cause a new wave,  Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 are antigenic distinct from BA.1 as other variants were from each other.

and

NICD

@nicd_sa
 · 
#COVID19 UPDATE: 27,424 tests were conducted in the last 24hrs, with 8,524 new cases, which represents a 31.1% positivity rate. Today @HealthZA reports 11 deaths; of which 5 occurred in the past 24–48 hrs. Total fatalities are 100,516 to date: http://ow.ly/lrKk50J1Y4X

should be yet another warning....but governments keep ignoring it....

SARS Cov 2 has many redundant ways of hiding from cd8 T cells Did not expect so many! So the T cells are at a disadvantage

-

Prof. Akiko Iwasaki

@VirusesImmunity
 · 
What about viral genes in addition to ORF8 in controlling MHC I expression? Remarkably, many other viral genes (E, M, ORF7a,b) reduced MHC I just as well as HIV-nef (gold standard)! These SARS-CoV-2 genes, to a lesser extent, reduced MHC II expression also. (9/)

It was very well known that CoViD in animals was "very hard to control" ! The virus undermines the immunity response itself....

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/hypothesis-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-is-also-triggered-by-dominating-human-genes-in-a-particular-ethnicity-and-geolocation,-hence-border-controls-are-cr[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/hypothesis-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-is-also-triggered-by-dominating-human-genes-in-a-particular-ethnicity-and-geolocation,-hence-border-controls-are-cr itical.....DJ A virus has a specific "feeding ground" in hosts, location. So a variant in location A may not survive in location B unless it has some specific mutations...(article gives some history of variant spread). OF COURSE !!!!! One should limit (air)travel during a pandemic !!!! OF COURSE mixing of all kinds of (sub)variants is asking for a worsening of the pandemic. 

Profit first "saving the economy" is resulting in an out of control pandemic. !

Theres a massive covid outbreak on my campus rn and students are avoiding the 2x testing/wk mandate so they dont have to get lesser grades on their finals for not being in person because they had to quarantine and i think that speaks volumes about Hopkins academic culture


We should have learned something...certainly at Universities....?????










Replying to 
I am sorry what? students are getting lesser grades for quarantining per guidelines?

 

What caused this massive difference in COVID deaths? Not lockdowns; not lack of democracy; not new treatments. It was testing, contact tracing, avoiding crowds, masks, controlling new cases entering the country, leadership, clear strategy, & unified messaging to public.


Image


DJ [url]https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20220506-2[/url] or https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/DDN-20220506-2 Life expectency in several European countries in 2021; A few countries did see a drop of 2 years, several still reporting an increase of months...However if you look at different groups you will see lower incomes face higher risks...worse jobs, worse condition to start with, worse access to healthcare...

End of part 1...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 09 2022 at 12:01am

DJ, 

I think it now is more important to try to give-the best I can-info on the ongoing-and worsening pandemic. The Powers That Be (TPTB) are in total denial...

Unknown #Hepatitis in #children: From my point of view as a clinical virologist, there are many aspects that speak against #Adenovirus, with important implications for treatment. Why? Viral loads in the cases reported to be low. Normally viruses causing hepatitis are massively

-

found in the blood. Hepatitis virus A, B, E, when causing fulminant clinical hepatitis: very high viral loads (C rarely causes this). Same for other viruses with hepatic tropism (eg Yellow fever). Viral hepatitis with pronounced clinical picture but low viral loads doesn’t exist

DJ, linking CoViD with liver disease has been going on for over a year-yet now some "experts" go in full denial...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/mis-c-pims/vietnam-severe-liver-and-brain-damage-in-child-after-covid-19-infection/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/mis-c-pims/vietnam-severe-liver-and-brain-damage-in-child-after-covid-19-infection/

According to Dr. Tien, this is a rare case of a child with Covid-19 having severe liver damage and then developing multisystem inflammatory syndrome with neurological damage. Most cases of multisystem inflammatory syndrome occur in children with Covid-19 who are asymptomatic or have mild transient symptoms.

From June 2021 to March 2022, Ho Chi Minh City recorded 315 children with post-Covid-19 multisystem inflammatory syndrome, out of more than 71,000 F0 children. This is a new, uncommon but dangerous disease that occurs only in children, with inflammation of various organs, including the heart, lungs, kidneys, brain, skin, eyes or digestive system organs in children with a history of Covid-19.

VNexpress.net report  (in Vietnamese)

DJ-1; The virus may do damage all over the body...2; The virus may hide in the body...getting rid of it may sometimes be very hard. 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/lockdown/shielding-would-not-have-been-a-viable-public-health-strategy-for-covid-19/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/lockdown/shielding-would-not-have-been-a-viable-public-health-strategy-for-covid-19/

Crucially, even a small (20%) reduction in the effectiveness of shielding would have likely led to a large increase (>150%) in the number of deaths compared to perfect shielding. Our findings demonstrate that shielding the vulnerable while allowing infections to spread among the wider population would not have been a viable public health strategy for COVID-19 and is unlikely to be effective for future pandemics.

Peer reviewed study: Critical weaknesses in shielding strategies for COVID-19

DJ; Spread of virus=new variants; [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/south-africa/south-africa-covid-19-cases-hospitalizations-and-deaths-rise-in-fifth-wave/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/south-africa/south-africa-covid-19-cases-hospitalizations-and-deaths-rise-in-fifth-wave/

In a new report out today, an estimation of the current RO number in South Africa was revealed, along with evidence of increasing numbers of cases, hospitalizations and deaths across the country.

The BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron subvariants are currently responsible for around 60% of genome sequences in South Africa, as we discussed in this post.  South Africa’s Health Minister has recently declared that the fifth Covid wave has begun in his country, as discussed in this post.

The RO number for cases across the country is 1.34, and the RO for hospitalizations is 1.28. In Eastern Cape, the RO number for cases is 1.81.

Cases, hospitalizations, deaths and excess deaths are all currently increasing in South Africa:

 

Estimating the Effective Reproduction Number of COVID-19 in South Africa

So what is a "PR-strategy" ; 








Washington, D.C. has achieved COVID Zero - at least on paper - by stopping the release of data

"do not test, do not tell". Outcome is most of the spread is now "out of sight", so sequencing also is unable to give a meaningfull assessment. 

DJ-CoViD itself is bad enough, but the means to stop it, medication, vaccines have their risks. If governments (paid by big pharma ? It is a multi-billion $/€ bussiness) are hiding unwelcome findings "to save the economy" they are-again-not doing their job ! [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/first-published-case-report-links-usage-of-molnupiravir-to-treat-covid-19-to-acute-renal-failure[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/first-published-case-report-links-usage-of-molnupiravir-to-treat-covid-19-to-acute-renal-failure ; [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/urgent-studies-needed-on-paxlovid-does-it-only-help-alleviate-symptoms-and-suppress-viral-load-for-a-while-but-does-not-help-in-total-viral-clearance[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/urgent-studies-needed-on-paxlovid-does-it-only-help-alleviate-symptoms-and-suppress-viral-load-for-a-while-but-does-not-help-in-total-viral-clearance 

New York state reports 9,940 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 41% from last week. Reinfections are not included https://charts.medriva.com/us_state/NY

and

Gabriel Hébert-Mysterious™ 😎

@Gab_H_R
 · 
Guess what’s happening in NYC? Yes, this is hospitalizations.
Show this thread


Image

So do we have a "working strategy"? 

Reinfections are reported once a week in a separate tally. 6,450 reinfections were reported on Wednesday, or roughly 921 a day, which was up 29% from the week before

So the info is "trying to keep reinfection-info" separately..

Replying to 
Also the NY state site notes that *ONLY PCRs are counted in positivity rates, so they're NOT counting home tests in totals even if reported

The main reason why the global number of new cases/CoViD deaths are under a million per day/limited is we stopped most of the testing and reporting...

Why do we see lies and profitering in this pandemic, climate collapse, wars ? Because TPTB get away with it...are even proud of it...and we keep accepting it...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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part 2, because I am getting very angry....


Dr. Deepti Gurdasani

@dgurdasani1
 · 
It's been >2 yrs now. Can the media actually start judging the credibility of 'experts' on their track records, at least now? Or are they going to keep platforming 'experts' who've been wrong on almost everything they've said so far, in the hope that this time they'll be right?

-

This. Sunday papers today are stuffed with features on or by scientists who have been spectacularly wrong at every turn. They continue to ramble on, speculating wildly and citing no (or selective) evidence. Those people are not 'experts'. Stop bigging them up.

-









'our ministers did OK' -192,000 deaths involving COVID (COVID on death certificate) -1.8 million estimated to have long COVID (28 days) - with almost 800K for >1 yr -longest waits *ever* for emergency care in NHS - deemed unsafe -mass disruption in education, business

DJ in reaction to this;






Matthew Syed

@matthewsyed
 · 
Now we know our ministers did OK against Covid, but I hear no apologies from their many critics. WHO estimates that the UK had fewer excess deaths than Germany, Spain and Italy https://thetimes.co.uk/article/72295016-ce0a-11ec-8423-5db7bbe7a364?shareToken=89d9143fe6467095f2f328252bf05b2c

Why do "free media", "journalists" spread lies ? 

Apart from the numerous caveats around baselines in the WHO estimates, we absolutely cannot hide behind excess deaths in the UK. In England COVID deaths are actually greater than excess deaths.


Image
Apart from the numerous caveats around baselines in the WHO estimates, we absolutely cannot hide behind excess deaths in the UK. In England COVID deaths are actually greater than excess deaths.


Image

3

38

139


[url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time may at least give some relevant info...

So does [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues reporting on new findings....

Global estimate of #BA4/#BA5 cases - 10,930 Sequences containing Spike L452R & F486V : 1418 [BA.4 (53.39%), BA.5 (31.45%)] Hotspots: #SouthAfrica #Germany #UK #Portugal #USA #Denmark

Several subvariants are increasing...but action seems now to be at individual level....

DJ-"The virus is winning"...the only "goal" of the virus is to create as many new virusses...and we are no longer stopping it...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ,

BA.4 and BA.5 "on a global tour";[url]https://www.businessinsider.co.za/travellers-from-south-africa-are-carrying-ba4-and-ba5-but-nobody-wants-to-ban-flights-2022-5[/url] or https://www.businessinsider.co.za/travellers-from-south-africa-are-carrying-ba4-and-ba5-but-nobody-wants-to-ban-flights-2022-5

South Africa is now confirmed to be an active exporter of both new Omicron sub-variants, BA.4 and BA.5 – but even countries that had some of the harshest border measures in 2021 seem unlikely to repeat history, and impose travel restrictions on South Africa.

On the weekend, authorities in New Zealand announced first one, then two more confirmed cases of BA.5 in that country

"Following the first BA.5 case reported on Sunday, there are now three people who are confirmed to have the variant, all of whom travelled from South Africa," said the New Zealand ministry of health

-

This time the sub-variants have been detected in places in Europe, and cases were being counted in several states in the USA, even as the World Health Organisation cautioned that is was still too soon to tell how BA.4 and BA.5 would impact health systems.

At the same time, countries that previously imposed sudden and draconian travel restrictions, such as the United Kingdom, continue to dismantle their domestic Covid-19 restrictions as they move towards an express goal of "living with Covid". Most normalised travel in time for the traditional Easter holidays, and have promised citizens their first northern-hemisphere summer of freedom.

For now, that seems to include the freedom to travel to and from South Africa.


In the US;








Tracking #BA4/#BA5 in the #UnitedStates  #NewYork is a BA.4 #Hotspot Expect BA.4 to be included in the  #NowCast #variant proportions chart tomorrow w/ 0.5-1% (especially in the NE USA charts)

[url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1523819787708686342/photo/2[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1523819787708686342/photo/2 With very limited testing/reporting;

BNO|Medriva Newsroom

@medriva
 · 
U.S. COVID update: Daily cases continue to rise - New cases: 85,358 - Average: 74,187 (+1,331) - States reporting: 27/50 - In hospital: 18,566 (+118) - In ICU: 2,142 (+61) - New deaths: 218 - Average: 345 (-16) More data: https://charts.medriva.com/us

Europe, the rest of the world, often not doing much better. So, will BA.4/BA.5 be the "next global wave"? 

Tracking BA.2.38 (BA.2 + Spike K417T) in India Total sequences (last 60 days): 173

DJ...Maybe BA.2.12.1 (NYC) being replaced by BA.4/5 ? But it is much to early to tell. Global cases now (only) -8% ? [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table 67 countries report an increase. New Zealand-with its first imported BA.4/5 cases now -0,7%.  Africa cases +19%, deaths +177%. South America cases +8%, deaths -34%, Oceania cases +6%, deaths +2%. North America cases only -0,2%...Europe -16%, Asia -7%. 

Looking at these -limited- statistics maybe BA.4 and/or BA.5 may become a next global wave. 

-[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/mental-heath/13-of-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-developed-neurological-conditions-including-encephalopathy/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/mental-heath/13-of-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-developed-neurological-conditions-including-encephalopathy/ 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-sars-cov-2-causes-thymic-dysregulation-and-thymic-atrophy-that-results-in-lymphopenia-and-peripheral-t-cell-receptor-repertoire-changes[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-sars-cov-2-causes-thymic-dysregulation-and-thymic-atrophy-that-results-in-lymphopenia-and-peripheral-t-cell-receptor-repertoire-changes 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/covid-cases-explode-after-white-house-media-dinner-becomes-superspreader-event[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/political/covid-cases-explode-after-white-house-media-dinner-becomes-superspreader-eventCases of Covid-19 among attendees to the White House correspondents' dinner two weekends ago continue to mount, as the fully vaccinated and boosted 'elites' who condescended to non-compliant Americans participated in a superspreader event.

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/japan-reports-more-suspected-cases-unexplained-acute-hepatitis-children[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/japan-reports-more-suspected-cases-unexplained-acute-hepatitis-children

At least seven possible cases of acute hepatitis—inflammation of the liver—in children have been identified in Japan, the Health Ministry said Friday, but the cause of the cases is yet unknown.

DJ, lots of evidence indicating CoViD (MIS-C) is the major factor...but that is not what "experts" want to hear...I do not know if there Adeno-virus claim is a "better alternative"-adeno-virus may be even more widespread...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/dems-ditch-covid-funds-rush-40-billion-ukraine[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/political/dems-ditch-covid-funds-rush-40-billion-ukraineCongressional Democrats are rushing forward to whip up $39.8 billion in additional Ukraine aid, after agreeing to drop a a proposal for additional COVID-19 related funding they planned to combine.

DJ; bad politics did cause this pandemic...and still is making matters worse...starting world war three during a pandemic is "not a show of wisdom"...

So there is still an option for 1st gen variant, and We already see 2nd gen of Δ and BA’s (with the ability to transmit inter-host). And we know that saltation variants can evolve for more than a year. So we can expect more advanced variants to come. 9/13

and

Combine this with waning immunity, and here’s a realistic recipe for the next wave. And if it’ll be with a  2nd gen of Delta, that will mean probable more severe cases. Taking us back prior to 11.21. 11/13

we are not out of this pandemic !

End of part 1, maybe another part later on...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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What happened with my may 10 post ? (I may have posted it may 10-in NL, however it may still have been may 9 in the western US ?)

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/u-s-hospitals-running-out-of-ct-scan-contrast-dye[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/u-s-hospitals-running-out-of-ct-scan-contrast-dye ; Dear Patient,
Due to unprecedented COVID-related supply chain disruptions in
China, all hospitals in the United States are experiencing a shortage of contrast media (sometimes referred to as X-ray dye) used to perform CAT or CT scans. This may affect ERCP procedures as well. As at all U.S. hospitals, LVHN and other imaging providers’ ability to perform these scans in all but the most critical cases will be limited until these supply chain issues are corrected. This shortage has been caused by the Chinese government’s COVID lockdown of Shanghai, where most of the world’s supply of contrast media is manufactured and then subsequently distributed by GE Healthcare and Bracco. This disruption is expected to last until at least the end of June.

LVHN is exploring various strategies to conserve contrast media, including using other imaging technologies and materials and postponing non-emergency scans. As always, we are 100% committed to providing the best possible care to our patients.

DJ-Since it is from Hal Turner I do not know the value of it...Do want to limit politics in this section...However US, EU and UK now sending billions of "aid" to Ukraine-in part by defunding CoViD relief funds...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/who-chinas-zero-covid-strategy-is-unsustainable/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/who-chinas-zero-covid-strategy-is-unsustainable/ ;

China’s flagship zero-Covid strategy to defeat the pandemic is unsustainable, the World Health Organization said Tuesday, adding that it had told Beijing so and called for a policy shift.

“When we talk about the zero-Covid strategy, we don’t think that it’s sustainable, considering the behaviour of the virus now and what we anticipate in the future,” WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a press conference.

France24.com report

 

** Because 15 million Covid-19 deaths in two years IS sustainable? **

 


 

“We find that the level of immunity induced by the March 2022 vaccination campaign would be insufficient to prevent an Omicron wave that would result in exceeding critical care capacity with a projected intensive care unit peak demand of 15.6-times the existing capacity and causing approximately 1.55 million deaths.”

Nature article: Modeling transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in China

 

DJ, My impression is Zero-CoViD policy is the only working strategy...It needs to be done as humane as possible (so not killing of pets, not separating children, food/water security for people in lockdown. 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/deer/us-chronic-wasting-disease-in-michigan-white-tailed-deer/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/deer/us-chronic-wasting-disease-in-michigan-white-tailed-deer/

A deadly neurological disease known for affecting different species of moose, elk, and other hoofed mammals has been confirmed in a white-tailed deer in Michigan.

The Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development said it detected a case of chronic wasting disease in a deer in Mecosta County, which is west of Mount Pleasant.

Fox2detroit.com report

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronic_wasting_disease[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronic_wasting_diseaseChronic wasting disease (CWD), sometimes called zombie deer disease, is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) affecting deer. TSEs are a family of diseases thought to be caused by misfolded proteins called prions and include similar diseases such as BSE (mad cow disease) in cattle, Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) in humans and scrapie in sheep.[1] In the US, CWD affects mule deerwhite-tailed deerred deersika deerelkcaribou, and moose.[2] Natural infection causing CWD affects members of the deer family.[2] Experimental transmission of CWD to other species such as squirrel monkeys and genetically modified mice has been shown.[3]

-

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronic_wasting_disease#Epidemiology[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronic_wasting_disease#Epidemiology both North America as Europe see cases.

DJ, CoViD in deer may play a role in them becoming more vulnerable for other diseases ? [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/05/articles/animals/dogs/tuberculosis-in-a-dog/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/05/articles/animals/dogs/tuberculosis-in-a-dog/ TB in dogs is "rather unusual"...

I think that besides CoViD spread we need to be aware of the risks of increase of other diseases...

Yesterday I did write about the-very likely-global increase of BA.4/BA.5 (South Arica) variant...I do think we may see more and more an increase of other diseases both in human and non-human hosts. H5N1 may be one of them...

End of part 1 (see if it "sticks" on this forum. Sometimes I wonder if there is an internet on the recieving side of this forum...)


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ, Maybe I write the date on top of what I write...local CET (Central European Time) may avoid dates going wrong/unclear...So here it is may 11-may be close to may 12 in NZ...

Some twitter;

David Fisman

@DFisman
 · 
Anecdotally (reliable source) I’m hearing that some of the children with mystery hepatitis are now developing mystery aplastic anemia.   If you think liver transplants are no big deal, wait til you find out about the minor procedure called “bone marrow transplant”

and 

Study: Pediatric Acute Liver Failure Due to Type 2 Autoimmune... "We describe the case of a 3-year-old previously healthy female who developed acute liver failure secondary to type 2 autoimmune hepatitis preceded by mild infection with SARS-CoV-2.

DJ There was-much to long-a pseudo "religious" belief that "children only get mild CoViD"....This pseudo-science now tends to even blame Adeno-viral infections for "hepatitis in children" while it has been known for over a year there is a CoViD link...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-study-alarmingly-reveals-that-sars-cov-2-infections-causes-widespread-prevalence-of-inflammatory-microvasculopathy-in-brains-of-infected[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-study-alarmingly-reveals-that-sars-cov-2-infections-causes-widespread-prevalence-of-inflammatory-microvasculopathy-in-brains-of-infected DJ-It should not be news that CoViD can result in long term organ damage...So why again questioning it ? A new form of denial ? 








Really upset to see what’s happening in wastewater & hospitalizations in MA. We are in Red even on the CDC map. It’s past time for mask policies for everyone. If you lead something, implement mask policies or strong encouragement. Help each other get vaccinated & boosted.

and








As of April 22, the BA.2.12 subvariant represents ~25% of SARS-CoV-2 virus in #wastewater nationwide. This includes BA.2.12.1. For comparison, BA.1& BA.1.1 make up 8.3% nationwide—all #BA2 sublineages combined make up >90%. More at http://biobot.io/data

DJ, In the US BA.2.12 is the main subvariant however it looks like ; 

Tracking #BA4/#BA5 in the #UnitedStates  BA.4 Hotspots: #NewYork#California  BA.5 Hotspots: #Tennessee 

I do expect BA.4/5 to become one of many global problems...But further decrease of testing/reporting only makes it harder to get a realistic view...

"This is the worst year of the pandemic and nobody is talking about it” in Australia 🇦🇺 - thank you . Here is the how Australia has kind of given up ahead of its May election. #CovidIsNotOver

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table 77 countries report increase of cases, the only region not seeing an increase yet is Europe-cases -19%, the other regions; North/South America and Africa +6%, Asia +2% Oceania +8%

Oman cases +637%, Saudi Arabia cases +212 I find extra concerning...You do not want to think of CoViD-MERS recombinations...MERS has been reported in the Arab-world in low numbers...I do not know if camels get tested. But I do think camels may be able to catch CoViD-19....

[url]https://twitter.com/josetteschoenma[/url] or https://twitter.com/josetteschoenma in Dutch reporting on the lack of data-so it is hard-if not impossible-to get a relevant view...It looks like BA.4/5 may allready be spreading in Europe but also not looking for the mutations may end up giving wrong info...








HCWs currently have one of the highest rates of long COVID, and the impact of hospital transmission isn't even being fully measured. Rather than weakening the already weak protections we have in hospitals, we need to be pushing for high-grade masks & ventilation in these settings

DJ, reality is there is often NO funding for improving ventilation in schools, care centers etc...not a high priority...

There are claims we "may end up with over 1 billion long Covid cases"...The official number for CoViD-cases however just is over half a billion-with most cases however never been tested...








People seem very unaware they can get reinfected (or that reinfections can cause long Covid in kids or adults). Seeing post after post on FB with people in indoor crowds “because we already had Covid.” needs to tell Americans the truth, before we disable more people.

Basic info, care is missing...Even HCW-ers often do not realize the risks...








I called 12 dental offices today to find a Covid-safe one. 100% take temp (tho’ most infected don’t get fever!). Approximately half wear only surgical masks (or 2) & face shields (won’t protect patient!). Zero front desk staff wear N95s. Zero require tests. OMG, !

So.-how to say in a polite way we are being scre..d ? 

End of part 2 (b....twitter error...copy of graphs/maps can go wrong...).

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 11 2022 at 10:01pm

It is may 12-early morning-here in NL-so it may be late evening on the Pacific coast of the America's...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-canadian-study-reveals-that-majority-of-non-hospitalized-covid-19-infected-individuals-have-decreased-cerebral-blood-flow[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-canadian-study-reveals-that-majority-of-non-hospitalized-covid-19-infected-individuals-have-decreased-cerebral-blood-flow DJ-Good to see these kind of studies ! They may become a basis for taking Long CoViD (and related chronic illness like ME-CFS, chronic Q-fever, Lyme) more serious.

What the study however did not answer-more study needed-is WHY blood flow in the brain is reduced. Clothing, swelling of bloodvessels...both would increase bloodpressure...Is the hearth beating less strong ? How was bloodpressure in other bodyparts ? 

Again I am not at all an "expert", just trying to follow the story from a "helicopterview"...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/transmission/west-european-summer-covid-wave-brewing-1-prediction/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/transmission/west-european-summer-covid-wave-brewing-1-prediction/ ;

A new western European summer Covid wave appears to be developing, with increases in cases in countries that also saw large waves in the summer of 2021.

Firstly, let’s take a look at the area of Europe that was affected by a summer Covid wave in 2021. The area stretches from France to Portugal, but seems to be centred on southern Spain and Gibraltar in particular.

The summer wave of 2021 was not as large as the winter waves that preceded it or came after it, but it was, for some countries, larger than the spring wave of 2021.

-

Gibraltar, Andorra and Portugal are already seeing an increase in cases, and we suspect that Spain and France will soon join them as the wave gathers strength. 

These summer waves could well be associated with the movement of tourists across Europe and into Spain and Portugal for the holiday season.

The more easterly parts of Europe didn’t see a significant summer wave in 2021, although Greece and Turkey, two other popular European holiday destinations, did see a higher level of cases than other countries in the region a few weeks later that summer. Perhaps a “Mediterranean summer wave” would be a more accurate description of the phenomenon.

-

Some news out today might give a clue as to which SARS-CoV-2 variant could fuel the summer wave. Portugal has announced that 37% of its new cases there are of the BA.5 variety, the highly transmissible successor to BA.2.

Prediction: We think that the relaxation in travel restrictions and other Covid mitigations in 2022 will mean a LARGER summer wave in western areas of Europe than in 2021. A lack of testing this year may mean that the wave goes largely unrecorded however.

We are flying blind now. Stay safe!

DJ, I hate to see it that I was thinking in the same direction-eventhough I do not want to go for the BA.5-or "only BA.5" scenario....

At [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Europe cases -25% is the only region with a decrease of cases. North America cases now +18%, South America cases +8%, deaths only -3%. Africa cases +46%, deaths +222% !!!!!! (but with very low numbers being reported; 90 deaths last week for ALL of Africa, last 7 days 290 deaths were reported). Asia cases +10%, Oceania +12%, deaths +5% (342 to 360...so more deaths then Africa is reporting with a much smaller population.)

Global cases -5%, deaths -20%

However for Europe Bosnia & Herzegovina (part of former Yugoslavia) cases +148%, Finland +32%, Estonia +31%, Hungary +27%......Portugal -62%...did they decrease testing/reporting in Portugal ? Finland has been reporting an increase for some time...[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FIN[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=FIN latest info is from march 16...almost two months old ! Outbreak itself has difficulty in keeping up with the very many subvariants !

It is good to look for mutations [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues but the overview is getting much more detailed; if there is to much time between finding new subvariants and updating databases you run behind the facts...

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports has 250 subvariants of "Delta", only 74 for "Omicron"....DJ given the much higher spread and less stability in the Omicron-variants we -in reality- may allready face over a 1,000 subvariants of "Omicron"....but missing most of them due to lack of testing and (thus) sequencing...

For the US ;

#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 41.79% BA.2, 32.41% BA.2.12.1**, 7.31% BA.2.3, 6.80% BA.2.9, 3.71% BA.2.12 and 0.96% BA.1.1 ** Spike L452Q Tracker (by location): http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7

DJ, However both BA.4 and BA.5 are also increasing in the US (there is at least already a BA.4.1...so it is splitting up further...). Some US regions have a lot of BA.2.12.1, others see allready a lot of BA.4/5...I-as a non expert-expect a lot of mixing/recombinations...

Worse-even mild/asymptomatic CoViD may weaken immunity against other diseases (like HPAI types as H5N1). I think-by now-it may be wise to "widen the perspectivekeep an eye on increased spread of other diseases; "summer-flu", TB...we are in a downward spiral-with no restrictions left...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/05/11/face-masks-longer-recommended-european-flights-monday[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/05/11/face-masks-longer-recommended-european-flights-monday ;

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) will no longer recommend that people on airplanes wear face masks. The advice, which has been in effect since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, will expire on Monday. The organizations also believe that the other coronavirus rules that create obstacles for airlines can be relaxed.

DJ, "Economy first=profit above public health=insane"!!!

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/05/10/covid-icu-total-drops-20-month-low-coronavirus-r-value-jumps-higher[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/05/10/covid-icu-total-drops-20-month-low-coronavirus-r-value-jumps-higher ;

A total of 10,007 people tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus since last Tuesday morning, the RIVM said. That reflected a 6 percent reduction from nearly 10,600 infections the previous week.

The number of people who showed up at a GGD facility for a test fell by 4 percent to 15,466. About 42 percent having produced a positive self-test before contacting the health service. 


The latest data gave reason to believe that the decrease in new infections could be slowing down, and might begin to rise. The model from the RIVM showed that the basic reproduction (R) value surged to 0.95. That was an increase from 0.72 the previous week, which pushed the figure to its highest point since early March.

The current R-value suggests that 100 people contagious with the virus on April 25 infected 95 others, who then spread the infection to another 90 people. They then passed the coronavirus on to 86 others.

When the R-value is below 1.00, the expectation is that infections will fall. However that reduction slows as the figure gets closer to 1.00. Should it rise above that point, there is a higher likelihood that infections in the Netherlands will increase.

The last time the figure was above 1.00 was on March 4, leading to hundreds of thousands of diagnosed infections in the Netherlands. That then resulted in over a thousand more weekly Covid-19 hospitalizations than what the RIVM divulged over the previous seven days.

DJ, In NL, most likely most of western Europe, cases may be going up again by now. Eventhough worldometers for NL has still -8% for cases on a weekly basis. Most countries hardly test or report...[url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time also indicating in the UK the decrease of cases is slowing down (worldometer-based on UK-data-cases -38%, ZOE gives another-more realistic-picture...). 

DJ-So-as could be expected-no/less restrictions, "living with it" is resulting in yet another wave...With air-travel going for pre-pandemic levels (virus-fly-for-free) and indications that L452-mutations suggest problems, even recent infection may no longer offer protection, we may be moving to the WORST healthcrisis so far in this pandemic this (northern) summer ! 

In the south part of the globe they are moving towards winter. Boosters/vaccines only offer-at best-limited protection. There are a lot of other diseases (also in non-human hosts) that may get more chance for spreading...

I would love to see some reason for optimism...nasal vaccines are no longer a priority (war is top-priority...with most of the money going to MIC-share holders...). 

Again-putting "economy=profit" above public health did create this pandemic ! It could-and should-have been stopped in january 2020. Just like SARS-1 was stopped in 2003. The increase of cases in the Arab-gulf states are very alarming. MERS mixed with CoViD-19 may be around the corner, not "if but when"!

In my opinion "Zero-CoViD" is the ONLY strategy making sense...but we need to take public health serious for such a strategy...not "saving profits"...

End of part 1


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 11 2022 at 10:53pm

Maybe on top of this writing the CET date will show up...may 12 in NL-most likely by now also on the Pacific coast ? 

North Korea says samples collected from a group in Pyongyang tested positive for coronavirus on May 8 and genomic sequencing found the Omicron BA.2 variant

related to [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/strange-happenings-in-north-korea-immediate-national-lockdown[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/strange-happenings-in-north-korea-immediate-national-lockdown

Something is going on in Pyongyang, North Korea.

Multiple sources are reporting that people have been ordered indoors IMMEDIATELY due to a "national problem."

Large lines of people seen suddenly rushing home at around 2pm local time this afternoon.

It is not yet known what this "national problem" might be which would require the whole country to go home and remain inside.

[url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220512001254325?section=nk/nk[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220512001254325?section=nk/nk ;

(ATTN: UPDATES with additional info in last 2 paras)
By Yi Wonju and Chae Yun-hwan

SEOUL, May 12 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Thursday announced its first case of the omicron variant of COVID-19 and declared the implementation of the "maximum emergency" virus control system, putting an end to its coronavirus-free claim.

The North held a politburo meeting in Pyongyang, with leader Kim Jong-un in attendance, to discuss the country's "most serious emergency" in its antivirus system that had been "firmly defended" for over two years, according to the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

North Korean authorities conducted an analysis of samples collected from fever-ridden patients on Sunday in Pyongyang and concluded that they were identical to the omicron BA.2 variant, it reported.

The KCNA did not mention the number of cases, but multiple patients appear to have been confirmed.

During the session, Kim vowed to overcome the unexpected crisis and ordered officials to carry out the strict lockdown of all cities and counties across the country to completely block out all possibility of the spread of the virus.

Kim then called for tighter vigilance on all fronts along the borders, the sea and air to prevent a security vacuum in the country's national defense.
"More dangerous enemy of us than the malicious virus are unscientific fear, lack of faith and weak will," he was quoted as saying.

He added the North will "surely overcome the current sudden situation" of the COVID-19 outbreak at all costs as his people have developed awareness and unity through the prolonged struggle against the virus.

Kim also urged officials to carry out the country's economic development plan and construction projects as scheduled despite switching to the maximum prevention system, in an apparent effort to prevent further worsening of its economy.

The North aims to stably manage and prevent the spread of the virus, as well as treat confirmed patients to "block and terminate the source of the malicious epidemics spread," he added.

The political bureau decided to convene the fifth Plenary Meeting of the ruling Workers' Party's eighth Central Committee early next month to review state policies for this year and discuss a "series of important issues," the KCNA said, without further elaboration.

Keen attention is being paid to the potential impact of the formally acknowledged virus outbreak in the impoverished nation with dilapidated health care infrastructure on the regime's reported preparations for another nuclear test.

Some observers here raise the possibility that it will stay away from nuclear testing and other provocations for the time being in order to focus on ramping up antivirus efforts while reaching out to the international community for relevant medical supplies and vaccine assistance.

Asked if the COVID-19 outbreak would affect the North's apparent preparations for a nuclear test, a military official here said, "That's what we will have to pay close attention to."

The infection in the North is presumed to be attributable to the movement of massive crowds during national events, like last month's military parade marking the 90th anniversary of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army, a source said.

DJ; North Korea has shown it is willing to "go very far" in keeping CoViD-19 under control. It did kill a defector from South Korea a few months ago...since CoVid is airborne the DMZ will not stop it...however another route may be North Korea's border with China (and a very small stretch with Russia). There was limited Chinese tourism into North Korea...even plans for increasing tourism...








Multiple nuclear regimes under enormous destabilizing stress is nightmare fuel.   

Public health in North Korea is "free but poor"...no doubt China, Russia will offer help...If they can bring "more sense" in NK politics that would be welcome ! I did see German reunification in my life...maybe I can see Korean reunification and/or peace...would be both nice and welcome ! Lots of families have been split up...









Here's the latest variant picture for Portugal. BA.5 has been growing, up to 14% by late April. That's the highest frequency reported outside of South Africa.

DJ, most of Africa is doing "poor" in testing...forget about sequencing....most likely BA.4 & 5 is now widespread all over Africa, maybe also in the Arab world ????

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.5&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.5&loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false so far 19 countries reporting BA.5....however sequencing now is that bad we simply miss over 95% of the spread...

The present pandemic (lack of) "strategy" is the basic disaster !!!! Again-it is NOT !!!!!! getting "milder" !!!! It will increase spread further in non-human hosts !!!! It will undermine (our) defenses against other diseases...Climate change is a "slow disaster" compared to this pandemic...any "leader" would start a war to hide this total failure...and well that is what "our leaders" do....

Here are the leading provinces reporting BA.4 by the number of samples shared. The frequency in Western Cape recently rose rapidly, joining Gauteng at 60-70%.

The BA.4 subvariant is reported in 17 countries-and "missed" in most other countries...South Africa (SA) deaths +261% (last week 56, this week 202).

Replying to   and 
The shortest delay between 2 infections was observed in Spain = 20 days ! So with their definition of 60 / 90 days between infections, they are missing reinfections. The observed reinfection rate is already high, but the real rate is even higher 😅

DJ, Do I have to mention catching more then one (sub)variant of CoViD at the same time ???? People may catch BA.2 and BA.4/5 BOTH ! The one infection does not offer protection against the other...Testing is bad, sequencing should try to see if people carry more then one (sub)variant...but we hardly have any relevant sequencing left....

Agree. Quite phenomenal that the WHO report repeatedly states that adeno is the leading hypothesis but right at the end (last para) states this:

-

If none of the investigations (liver biopsy, viral load, and known sympatomology of Adv) fits in with what's happening, why is this still considered the leading hypothesis - given not a single liver biopsy report has shown Adv & it's never caused this before?

The WHO attacking science; YES CoViD does cause liver-damage ! Has been reported over ayear ago (Delta-India) so why now coming up with an "adeno-virus" that is NOT detected-while ignoring the CoViD-proven link....[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/who-chinas-zero-covid-strategy-is-unsustainable/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china/who-chinas-zero-covid-strategy-is-unsustainable/ update; 

UPDATE 1 – 11th May 2022: China hits back…

-

Prediction made on 23rd February 2022 in the post below – “There’s likely a VERY LARGE WAVE BREWING IN ASIA”

DJ, Statistics-as far as there is any testing/reporting left-can give very good indications of what is coming....The WHO should stand for public health-not for shareholders and profit !!!

After months of looking at the soothing pastel green CDC map and hearing we’re entering a “transition period,” now we’re told to brace for impact.

DJ It is getting very frustrating....insane...Reminds me of people jumping from a first floor window-expecting to fly. Of course they do not fly-they drop. Still get up-go up-and jump again...over and over...

Can't fix stupid-how I hate that ! End of part 2...coffee !!!!!



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 13 2022 at 2:59am

DJ,

In "the MSM media" US did just get over 1 million CoViD deaths, Europe (WHO-region) over 2 million...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ already puts US deaths at 1,026,109. But their definition includes US Samoa, Virgin Islands etc. Some official statistics may exclude some US regions/military...Europe would have 1,830,000 deaths but worldometers has Turkey, Cyprus, Armenia etc as "Asia"...so it is a matter of definitions...

Global trend for cases -4%, deaths -22% but Europe is the only "region" with a decrease of cases -26%. North America +17%, South America +8%, Asia +20%, Africa +29%, Oceania +10%.

The main reason Europe cases are going down may be testing/reporting going down...in fact we are allready in another global wave of the pandemic. Looking at the statistics for cases I notice a peak in december 20/january 21, a peak in april 21, in august peak 3...then Omicron exploded-resulting in a peak december 21/january 22. East Asia most resulted in another peak in march this year...it looks like new variants are starting yet another wave...the 6th ? 

"So living with an endemic virus" is not a very good strategy....[url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time has 4 "UK peaks" from november 2021.

Speaking of the UK; [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xe/uk-1880-cases-of-xe-covid-recombinant-sequenced/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/xe/uk-1880-cases-of-xe-covid-recombinant-sequenced/ ;

The UKHSA have released a new technical briefing outlining the SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in Britain. The latest case count for the XE recombinant is 1,880 cases in the UK, with 1,569 of those cases in England.

The new XE figures aren’t a huge leap on the last reported number of 1,179 cases in the UK, reported on the 5th April 2022, and covered in this post.  The testing for SARS-CoV-2 has plunged in Britain, however, as has genome sequencing, so the true number of XE cases will be an order of magnitude higher than these new numbers suggest.

There is no new update on transmissibility in this report. XE was previously reported to be about 12.5% more infectious than the BA.2 subvariant.

 

From Technical Briefing 41, May 2022:

 

Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 are circulating in the UK, but are currently at lower levels than the XE recombinant:

 

DJ-So what is the next dominant variant ? Will it be a mix ? BA.4/5, BA.2.12.1, XE ??? If it is a mix can we only "get out of the peak" by ignoring it ? Starting a global war ? 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/japan-ties-between-omicron-variant-and-severe-hepatitis-in-children/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/japan-ties-between-omicron-variant-and-severe-hepatitis-in-children/ DJ-links between CoViD and hepatitis are over a year old...why are we again in these kinds of discussions ? [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/2020-research-hepatitis-is-common-in-children-with-covid-19-mis-c/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/2020-research-hepatitis-is-common-in-children-with-covid-19-mis-c/ ;

Wow it’s even worse than I realized… Not only did they NOT check for prior/recent covid infection, they didn’t even check the livers for covid. “No immunohistochemical evidence of adenovirus.” So they didn’t stain the livers for SARS-CoV2? 🤯 What is this trash investigation?


DJ "Experts" ignoring CoViD blaming an adeno-virus they did not find...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/long-covid-viral-fragments-found-in-the-body-months-after-initial-infection/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/long-covid-viral-fragments-found-in-the-body-months-after-initial-infection/ ;

Two teams have recently published results suggesting that pieces of SARS-CoV-2 can linger in the gut for months after an initial infection. The findings add to a growing pool of evidence supporting the hypothesis that persistent bits of virus — coronavirus “ghosts”, could contribute to the mysterious condition called long COVID.

An early hint that the coronavirus might persist in the body came in work published in 2021 by gastroenterologist Saurabh Mehandru at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York City and his colleagues. By then, it was clear that cells lining the gut display the protein that the virus uses to enter cells. This allows SARS-CoV-2 to infect the gut.

Nature magazine article: Coronavirus ‘ghosts’ found lingering in the gut

DJ-Also NOT new !!!! Even worse-people may carry different variants in different parts of the body...It is easy to catch, hard to get rid of...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/abnormal-blood-clotting-due-to-elevated-von-willebrand-factor-vwf-antigen-ag-adamts13-ratio-in-most-post-covid-individuals-impairs-exercise-capacity[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/abnormal-blood-clotting-due-to-elevated-von-willebrand-factor-vwf-antigen-ag-adamts13-ratio-in-most-post-covid-individuals-impairs-exercise-capacity DJ-No doubt some journalists will keep calling it a "lung virus" while the ACE-2 receptor link story is over 2 years old...and ACE-2 receptors are allover the body, lungs is the "easy entry-startingpoint"...

By now it should be clear dealing with this pandemic has to be top-priority...Reality check-it is not. We are further away from any international cooperation...The west may soon be in shortages of medication, medical gear. So-the outlook is "not good" at all !

Covid-19 was the <leading medical cause of death> among all US residents under age 55 during 2021. 

Same will show for 2022, allthough maybe more indirect...

U.S. COVID update: More than 100,000 cases for 3rd day in a row - New cases: 106,954 - Average: 89,406 (+4,379) - States reporting: 32/50 - In hospital: 20,174 (+399) - In ICU: 2,271 (+106) - New deaths: 351 - Average: 313 (+5) More data: https://charts.medriva.com/us

Worldometer has US cases at 85,000 yesterday, 90,000 the day before...

106K w/ only 32/50 States reporting.  estimates ~473K cases (CI: 298-627K) My estimate ~800K - 1.3 Million cases (assuming all states reporting/ 5-8 missed case per confirmed case)

Real numbers must be "bad"; Africa cases may be +29%, Africa deaths +63% should be a(nother) warning !!! By the way, Saudi cases +297%, KSA deaths +27% (11 last week, 14 this week...). 

New “community levels” are out Under the pre-Feb 25th CDC guidance, universal masking would currently be recommended in 63% of US counties. Under current guidance, it’s recommended in 4% of counties. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_select_state=all_states&list_select_county=all_counties&data-type=Risk

playing with numbers is creating disasters...

I leave it with this...pretty depressing...certainly with the number of likely re/co-infections, weakening immunity and most likely following increase of other diseases...

Friday May-13....



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2022 at 2:25am

Saturday may 14

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/sardinia-xj-recombinant-is-at-20-of-sequences-xm-at-15/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/recombinants/sardinia-xj-recombinant-is-at-20-of-sequences-xm-at-15/ ;

n Sardinia, XJ and XM Omicron recombinants are at 19.67% and 14.75% of sequences respectively. BA.2 is at just 65.57% of sequences.

These are the estimated prevalences for all of Italy:
BA.1 is 3.5% (range 0-12.9%);
BA.2 at 93.8% (65.6-100%);
BA.3 below 0.1% (0-0.9%);
BA.4 almost 0.5% (0-4%);
BA.5 at 0.4% (0-5.6%).
Also present were some recombinants of Omicron 1 and 2: XJ at 0.66%; XM at 0.59%; XN at 0.15%; XQ and XT below 0.1%.

Omicron sub-variants 4 and 5 (BA.4 and BA.5), in the spotlight for a fifth wave of Covid in South Africa, are present in 7 regions (4 and 3 respectively). BA.4 reaches a peak of 4.02% in Emilia Romagna, followed by Calabria (2.86%), Tuscany (1.03%) and Lombardy (0.96%); BA.5 is almost 6% in Umbria (5.56%), followed by Puglia (3.23%) and Lazio (0.92%).

The data comes from the latest flash survey conducted on May 3 by the Higher Institute of Health and the Ministry of Health, together with the regional laboratories and the Bruno Kessler Foundation.

ReggioTV.it report (in Italian)

DJ Yesterday UK reported at least 1,880 XE recombination cases-with very limited testing...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-5/europe-ba-4-and-ba-5-reclassified-as-variants-of-concern/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-5/europe-ba-4-and-ba-5-reclassified-as-variants-of-concern/

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has issued an Epidemiological update on 13th May 2022.  BA.4 and BA.5 have been reclassified as Variants of Concern.

The ECDC seem to have been spooked by the latest figures for BA.5 from Portugal which have reached 37% of  sequences in the past week. The ECDC estimates that BA.5 will become the dominant variant in Portugal within TEN DAYS.

This is the first upgrade of a variant of interest to a variant of concern since the original Omicron variant B.1.1.529 was reclassified on 26th November 2021.

In the US BA.2.12.1 may be the biggest problem-however ;

Where are we headed in the next few weeks? A long ugly wave ahead with a Q, Q/R (transition) and R-phase Q-phase propelled by S:L452Q/S704L (BA.2.12.1) R-phase propelled by S:L452R/F486V (BA.4/5) There is still time.. get #Boosted and #MaskUp!


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Raj Rajnarayanan

@RajlabN
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That was quick and expected… unfortunately 🥲https://twitter.com/rajlabn/status/1521199055979876353?s=21&t=1eSAeQ8EbUfDdLmaVDXDSw
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DJ I expect a "mega-mix of sub-variants/recombinations" mixing whitin eachother and increasing other diseases...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ global cases now -0,3% with very limited testing and reporting...deaths still -20% however South Africa cases +24%, SA deaths +65% may give some indication...(and yes it is winter in South(ern) Africa...but season only is a limited factor.)

North Korea -DJ- As far as I know NK may NOT have the needed means to control the present crisis. It will have to allow foreign assistance or collapse. South Korea, China, Russia may be allowed to help-but of course there will be a cost...Saudia Arabia/UAE/Israel should be another major worry !!!! (Will MERS mix with Omicron ???)

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/austrian-study-discovers-that-genetic-variants-of-the-host-cd16a-antibody-receptor-are-associated-with-the-risk-of-severe-covid-19[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/austrian-study-discovers-that-genetic-variants-of-the-host-cd16a-antibody-receptor-are-associated-with-the-risk-of-severe-covid-19 as if the number of sub-variants was not bad enough....

-SCoV2 infection result in viral reservoir -SCoV2 viral persistence in the GI tract ➡️ repeated release of viral proteins ➡️repeated immune activation mediated by SCoV2 spike superantigen -Severe acute hepatitis could be effect of AdV in children carrying SCoV2 viral reservoirs

Another CoViD-hepatitus link (as far as I did understand in some hepatitis cases NO adeno-virus was detected...). 






Eric Feigl-Ding

@DrEricDing
 · 
We are so screwed if the $10 billion for pandemic isn’t approved soon. ➡️A painful and foreboding reality is setting in WH as it enters a dangerous stretch of the Covid fight: It may soon need to run its sprawling pandemic response on a shoestring budget. https://politico.com/news/2022/05/13/white-house-vaccines-covid-funding-impasse-00032319

DJ, My impression is the pandemic is no longer seen as top-priority...

I keep it with this for today...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 15 2022 at 2:50am

Sunday May 15,

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/us-hits-grim-milestone-1-million-covid-deaths[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/us-hits-grim-milestone-1-million-covid-deaths ;

While it took just 50 days to go from 800,000 deaths in December 2021 to 900,000 on February 3. It has taken twice as long to go from 900,000 to one million Covid casualties.

And finally, we note that more Americans have died from COVID during President Biden's term than died during President Trump's.

DJ US cases +2% at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table since weekend testing/reporting has become "very limited" statistics at best give indications...

Global cases now at +0,7%...so we see a global upward trend. Even with very limited value;

Europe cases -19%, deaths -24%

North America cases +1%, deaths -24% as well

South America cases +7%, deaths +4%

Asia cases +32%, deaths -24% 

Africa cases +14%, deaths +59% !

Oceania cases +16%, deaths -0,3%

Europe-and many other regions-dropped most of the testing...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-sars-cov-2-activates-epidermal-growth-factor-receptor-mediated-signaling,-inducing-survivin-expression-which-assists-in-cancer-progression[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-sars-cov-2-activates-epidermal-growth-factor-receptor-mediated-signaling,-inducing-survivin-expression-which-assists-in-cancer-progression linking CoViD with cancer...

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues a few new "issues" ...often in a very early stage-so no info yet on growth factors...

"Nearly 80% of workers ages 20 to 64 who died of Covid in 2020 worked in industries designated as essential, according to data obtained by a team of researchers led by Yea-Hung Chen...About 2/3 of workers in the US are employed in industries that fall within the classification"

No-We are NOT all at the same risk ! By now it is clear-worldwide- the poor suffer much more ! They have the worst jobs, worst housing-living in it with often 3 generations...worst access to healthcare...








The "mild" Omicron death peak was higher than for Wave 1 original Covid.


Image

29

1,203

3,044



"Omicron=mild", same kind of "wishfull hopium" as summer/vaccines will save us....A main reason why "Africa has so limited number of cases/deaths" is they do not have tests...

"A significant proportion of the nation’s oldest residents died, making up about three-quarters of the total deaths. And among younger adults across the nation, Black and Hispanic people died at much higher rates than white people."

So what is next ? 

JPN ports of entry VOC screening data (focus on Asia & WW). -First cases of BA.4 (S. Africa) & BA.5 (Spain & Zambia). -BA.2.12.2 starting to show up in Asia. 

DJ; Again-y non-expert impression is "a mega-mix" of variants/recombination further undermining public protection/immunity against other diseases...








This is the Invisible Wave of COVID. Most positives are on home tests so they don't show on statistics. It's no longer expedient for either political party to acknowledge it. There seems to be no threshold for action anymore. I'm not feeling good about this.

Worldwide only a few countries seem to care about the pandemic...war as distraction...insanity rules !

When people finally realize they’re being manipulated—that repeated Covid infections cause permanent organ damage & autoimmunity, dramatically shorten life spans, exacerbate all pre-existing issues, & lead to a markedly decreased quality of life—they’re going to be furious.

To end it for today !


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 15 2022 at 10:36pm

DJ, 

Monday may 16, 

I expect this week to show we are yet again in another global pandemic wave-but also there may not be one main (sub)variant-but a mix-pushing up the numbers. 

There is a lot of discussion on hepatitis in children-DJ-linked to (post) CoViD. Somehow some "experts" want to link it to an adeno-virus, often without even looking at a CoVid background. Another form of denial on (long) CoViD...not helpfull...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global cases -1%. Main reason however is no/limited testing reporting during the weekend...Europe and North America see reported cases decrease...If you stop testing and reporting maybe "media" (again) would claim "we are now post-pandemic"....

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-situation-in-north-korea-spiraling-out-of-control-with-296,180-new-infections-and-15-deaths-in-the-last-24-hours-[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-situation-in-north-korea-spiraling-out-of-control-with-296,180-new-infections-and-15-deaths-in-the-last-24-hours- 

and

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/brazil-researchers-identify-new-recombinant-variant,-this-time-involving-a-ba-1-subvariant-ie-ba-1-14-1-with-the-ba-2-variant[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/brazil-researchers-identify-new-recombinant-variant,-this-time-involving-a-ba-1-subvariant-ie-ba-1-14-1-with-the-ba-2-variant 

DJ-Given the very high spread, also Delta not fully gone-we see lots of new (sub)variants...some of them-by now maybe a lot of them-evade immunity. 

The major vaccination waves are a few months old...People now less willing to go for yet another vaccination. Nasal-vaccines seem not to be top of the list, this pandemic is allmost denied...

Outcome is thinks may get ugly...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-summer-covid-wave-incoming/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-summer-covid-wave-incoming/

According to the ZOE COVID Study figures, on May 13th 2022, there were 116,609 new daily symptomatic cases of COVID in the UK on average. Today, just two day later, that figure stands at 123,088 new cases.

It looks like Britain might be in for a repeat of last summer’s wave, which also kicked off in mid-May: 

Don’t expect to hear much about this development in the mainstream media in the UK. The gathering of statistics and reporting on the pandemic has now almost completely halted in Britain.

How’s that “learning to live it” thing going for y’all?

DJ; Excess deaths may be one of the few working indicators...Denial-like done with climate collapse-is the "dominant strategy"...The world will face another-this time even much larger-wave of refugees...Airtravel is at pre-pandemic level...

Conclusions: Wrong predictions surprise into confusion! Bad advice leads to bad policy! Now we have to face the consequences.

DJ As I did say many times; in farmanimals a corona virus disease only can be controlled by killing all the farmanimals...are we facing nuclear war for that reason ? 

I am not an expert at all-trying to understand at least some basics...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues If there are no brakes for a very infectious virus it will spread and mutate...Delta has over 250 subvariants "Omicron" may already have over a 1,000 is my idea. We "just are not looking at it"...

Some "bad news";

-Even minimal exposure can get you infected..

-If one subvariant is not able to harm you another subvariant can...

-Soon a lot of people may be infected by SEVERAL subvariants

-Reinfection will become the norm...

-Immunity against other diseases will become undermined; so expect an increase of other (infectious/auto-immune) diseases as well

To balance this for myself; Nasal vaccines do offer better protection, anti-virals can make a difference. Several countries still able to mass-produce effective pharma..NPI, masks, minimal social contacts etc still will limit risks. (A very old strategy...). So; is there a way out ? YES ! But we better start working together to survive !

We can not escape major damage from this pandemic, from climate collapse etc. (fiat currencies collapsing) but we have to try to limit the damage the best we can....

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsDMUgnrBuE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsDMUgnrBuE Tsunami....brace for impact !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 16 2022 at 10:20pm

DJ, 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/eric-topol-the-covid-capitulation/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/eric-topol-the-covid-capitulation/

“The real number of cases is likely at least 500,000 per day, far greater than any of the US prior waves except Omicron. The bunk that cases are not important is preposterous. They are infections that beget more cases, they beget Long Covid, they beget sickness, hospitalizations and deaths. They are also the underpinning of new variants.

Meanwhile, the CDC propagates delusional thinking that community levels are very low (as my friend Peter Hotez called the “field of greens”) while the real and important data convey that transmission is very high throughout most of the country. Not only does this further beget cases by instilling false confidence, but it is conveniently feeding the myth that the pandemic is over—precisely what everyone wants to believe.”

Eric Topol: The Covid Capitulation – As the virus accelerates its evolution, humans retrogress

 

** Eric Topol, one of a handful of people who actually seems to get it **

A pandemic as a "new normal"..."Climate collapse" as a new normal...so profits-"economy"- go above public health. Is "nuclear war the only way out"?????

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/horses/usa-sars-cov-2-delta-variant-spillover-from-human-to-horse/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/horses/usa-sars-cov-2-delta-variant-spillover-from-human-to-horse/ DJ-Infection in horses, cattle etc does so far often not (yet) mean large scale spreading of the virus. Deer, mice, rats, mink [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/mink/preprint-infection-of-mink-with-sars-cov-2-omicron-variant/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/mink/preprint-infection-of-mink-with-sars-cov-2-omicron-variant/ DO show larger scale spread...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-shows-that-croup-is-a-common-manifestation-in-children-infected-with-the-omicron-variants[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-shows-that-croup-is-a-common-manifestation-in-children-infected-with-the-omicron-variants 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Global cases now at +30%...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/north-korea/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/north-korea/ now included...Asia cases now at +159%..statistics due to 1,5 million North Korean cases...

Truth coming out. REUTERS 2 in 1: "Compared to children infected with other respiratory infections... suggest acute & long-term hepatic sequelae of #COVID19 in pediatric patients." "The spike protein of the coronavirus is a "superantigen" that over-sensitizes the immune system."

resulting in more auto-immune diseases. (Women see more of A-I disease, men die faster...).

There was a round of questions about whether hospitalizations and deaths in January were really from covid. Turns out there were a lot of excess deaths.

[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps and [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/05/13/mortality-rate-higher-expected-first-time-since-end-2021[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/05/13/mortality-rate-higher-expected-first-time-since-end-2021 ;

For the first time since the end of 2021, the number of deaths was higher than expected in April. Researchers from Statistics Netherlands (CBS) pin the excess mortality on the coronavirus and a flu wave. The number of deaths has since fallen again.

Statistics Netherlands only speaks of excess mortality if the number of deaths is much higher than expected for the time of year. That was the case for most of April, only not in the last week. On average, 350 more people than usual died per week in April. Last week, 150 more people died than expected, but according to the researchers, there was no longer excess mortality.


The statisticians do not yet have the data to determine the cause of the death wave in April, but they do have suspicions. "There are still coronavirus deaths to be regretted," said a spokesperson, who also pointed to the flu wave that started in mid-March as a possible cause.

The last time the Netherlands had an extended period of excess mortality was in the autumn of 2021. That coincided with a wave of the coronavirus. 


In April, a striking number of elderly and vulnerable people died. CBS noted a high number of deaths among long-term care recipients, people over the age of 80, and - to a lesser extent - people between the ages of 65 and 80. The cause of this is also not yet known. The spokesperson suspects that deaths from flu and the coronavirus were more noticeable in nursing homes.

The Cabinet lifted most coronavirus measures in mid-March because the virus was on its way out. Even after this, the declining trend of deaths caused by the coronavirus continued, figures from the public health institute RIVM show. But dozens of people are still dying from the virus every week

"new normal"?

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/05/13/people-still-isolating-fear-getting-covid[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/05/13/people-still-isolating-fear-getting-covid

There are still people living in isolation to prevent infection with the coronavirus, even now that official measures against the virus no longer apply. They don't visit other people or get visitors, nor do they go out to restaurants or the theater, RIVM reports based on its behavioral survey for March. This concerns 2 percent of the 35,000 respondents.

The degree of social isolation varies from staying inside completely to not going out or going out less often. People who have other health problems most often stay isolated. "Social isolation is six times more common among participants with severe immune impairment and nearly three times more common among participants with other medical conditions than among those with no medical condition."


People also stay home because they don't want to risk getting the virus and passing it on to a loved one or because they are unsure about the risks they could run themselves. There is also a group that is still a bit more careful after the measures relaxed but is gradually participating in social activities again.

Those still stuck at home miss social contacts, feel lonely, and misunderstood, the RIVM found. The health institute could not say how big the various groups are

There is growing criticism on how "politics" is dealing with CoViD/public health. You can prevent lockdowns by early intervention...There-by now-are many ways to get early warnings. Sewage-sampling is one of them...You do not need massive testing to get a usefull idea...Problem is denying the healthrisks CoViD brings...so we are on our way to another wave here in NL as well.

Worldometer cases for NL -13%/deaths -27% however [url]https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/reproductiegetal[/url] or https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/reproductiegetal R0 is 1,03 so NL cases are going up again...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/05/15/big-increase-chickenpox-cases-among-children[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/05/15/big-increase-chickenpox-cases-among-children no/low spread during restrictions-so "opening up" will bring a wave of infections in children not yet immune ...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2022 at 10:37pm

DJ,

Interesting [url]https://www.9news.com.au/national/scientists-predict-what-next-five-years-of-covid19-pandemic-could-look-like/d769c298-47ae-4344-b1d4-8d027a6ee3a8[/url] or https://www.9news.com.au/national/scientists-predict-what-next-five-years-of-covid19-pandemic-could-look-like/d769c298-47ae-4344-b1d4-8d027a6ee3a8 ;

A "lost generation" of young people with impaired social skills will live in countries where trust in governments and science has plummeted, misinformation is rife and seasonal surges of new COVID-19 variants overwhelm hospitals, according to the worst of three scenarios predicted by a panel of international scientists.
-
In the worst case model, growing nationalism would inhibit cooperation on vaccinations and trade. These dynamics, which appeared in the first years of the pandemic, would give rise to more political conflict, the study predicted, while scientists lamented the prospect of many countries reversing any climate change reforms to overcome the enormous economic impact of COVID-19.
"We must not take a narrow view of the pandemic or minimise its impacts beyond public health, otherwise inequities will grow, and the broader consequences will be felt in every society in every country," the council's president Peter Gluckman said.

But where are we now ? Global cases +37% in yet another wave....[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table however that number is pushed up by North Korea. Europe cases -19%-will go up later on in the week. North America -3%, South America +23%, Africa -8%, Oceania +18%....Asia +175% but that is because last week North Korea reported 0 cases, this week almost 1,5 million...statistics can be misleading. 

Testing/reporting is at a much to low level to give relevant info. Whu "surges would be seasonal" escapes me....There may be some "summer-outdoor-effect" -NL-CDC once mentioned summer cases -10%, winter cases +10%- but restart global airtravel may undo even that effect. 

There are 81 countries now reporting an increase. NL, USA, simply stopped reporting cases in weekends...Some countries may as good as stopped ALL testing/reporting. "At-home DIY testing" as a "cheaper alternative". In NL 2% of the population still sticking to a form of selfisolation. Since it is not very well defined-maybe 5%=1 in 20 persons trying to limit risks. Public transport still not at a number of pre-pandemic passengers. Also cinema's, theatres not "full"...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-white-house-official-says-america-in-a-very-vulnerable-state-unless-new-updated-vaccines-materialize-120,605-new-infections-in-last-24-hours[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-white-house-official-says-america-in-a-very-vulnerable-state-unless-new-updated-vaccines-materialize-120,605-new-infections-in-last-24-hours 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/austrian-and-uk-study-shows-that-sars-cov-2-ba-2-variant-and-its-sublineages-are-very-different-antigenically-from-all-other-variants[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/austrian-and-uk-study-shows-that-sars-cov-2-ba-2-variant-and-its-sublineages-are-very-different-antigenically-from-all-other-variants 

Hong Kong did see an explosion of BA.2.2, South Korea BA.2.3...The US has BA.2.12.1 (with a.o. BA.2.12.1.7 as a further sub) Then there are the BA.4/% South African variants. The XE recombination may also become dominant in some regions...

DJ-Governments/"experts" claiming the pandemic is as good as over are destroying trust. Certainly when they also create a global political crisis that should have been avoided !

WHY ??? Why are we this close to World War Three ???? Putin has been in power in Russia for decades...it is NATO that has to move east...Is this crisis a distraction ? Do we get global war as a solution for this pandemic, the climate collapse ????

If you do NOT stop a highly mutatable virus from spreading it will spread....Present vaccines, earlier infection, may not do enough to stop that spread. 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/preprint-elevated-liver-enzymes-and-bilirubin-following-sars-cov-2-infection-in-children-under-10/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/hepatitis/preprint-elevated-liver-enzymes-and-bilirubin-following-sars-cov-2-infection-in-children-under-10/ "Experts" ignoring the CoViD and come up with a "new adeno-virus" NOT found in most cases...Is this a cover up for how much damage CoViD does also in young children ? 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkeypox[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkeypox The UK had 3 cases in 2021, the US 1-most related to travel from Africa. 

In May 2022 several cases were identified in London and one in northeast England, according to the UK Health Security Agency. It was emphasised in public announcements that monkeypox did not spread easily between people.[44]

DJ Does CoViD undermine immunity in such a way other diseases get more chance ? [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza is more then H5N1....Statistics can be usefull to see if this pandemic is finding more cases because there is more testing, or there is more "birdflu"...

Also other diseases may see more spread-but since also the number of refugees are increasing worldwide-it may be to early to link more other diseases with less immunity related to CoViD(vaccines...if statistics would find some diseases show up more in vaccinated it may be wise to look at why...Part of the story can be the more vulnerable are both higher level vaccination and more likely to catch other diseases). 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/band-of-england-long-covid-is-a-very-serious-issue/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/band-of-england-long-covid-is-a-very-serious-issue/ (Should it not be BANK of England ?) ...Long CoViD cases run into all kinds of financial problems, Not getting a mortgage, insuarance, to losing their job. Economies face a high % of disabilities. Healthcare, education, supermarkets may even get hit harder....So "live with it" has a very high price...

DJ I think we are allready in a "worst case scenario". If people want to stick to stories like "it is endemic" or even "the pandemic is over" they choose to ignore a very major problem...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2022 at 11:02pm

part 2 (feedback on readability, is this writing making some sense ? I try to see where we are in this pandemic-but does it help the reader to get a glimpse ???)

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports Only has 74 Omicron-subvariants. Delta has 250. The real number of Omicron subvariants must be "in the hundreds" if not allready 1,000+...No idea what subvariant(s) are spreading in North Korea, very limited info on China. But in fact we may have NO idea of the global reality due to a total lack of testing/sequencing....

If you want to start dealing with a problem you have to see how widespread the problem is. Testing and sequencing may give hints on what kind of disease(s) are spreading...No longer going for massive testing-even sewage-sampling not (yet) good enough...leaves us blind !

[url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time gives some indications on the UK-the decrease of cases has stopped. Worldometer has UK cases still at -23% based on official numbers. NL R) is above 1, however the "official numbers" has NL cases still -15%...

63,6% of the Portugees samples were BA.5 (SGTF) on the 15th of May! It is interesting to see that also BA.2.35, with the same L452R mutation, seems to be still growing as well. 3,4% in the latest sequenced data. Also some BA.2.12.1 (L452Q) have been found recently.

Portugal cases -24% ? NO !!!!! @#$!%*$#%!!!!!!!!! Portugal may be a major "door" for the spread of BA.4/5 to Europe and Latin America from Southern Africa !!! Brazil cases +20%, Mozambique cases +49%...Why is Angola no longer in the list ? Did they give up ???? (All three countries speak Portuguese-have a lot of travel-links).  

Powell translated: Everything we expected was wrong and we have no idea what will happen next. But we are confident about what we are doing.

Authorities making a total mess but simply remain in position. The US-Federal Reserve-Central Bank was WRONG on how the pandemic would work out on inflation, participation on jobs...Another "expert" shown to be "incorrect" in everything (s)he does...

DJ-Another very serious wave of CoViD-very likely on its way for most places-will possibly be "the end" of any trust in most experts/politicians...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/05/17/health-min-tells-schools-businesses-prepare-next-covid-wave[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/05/17/health-min-tells-schools-businesses-prepare-next-covid-wave ;Health Minister Ernst Kuipers wants sectors in the Netherlands to stop relying on the government for a coronavirus strategy and take their own steps to prepare for a new wave of infections expected in the autumn. "Make your own plan," he said to broadcaster NOS in response to criticism from experts saying that the government's lack of Covid-19 strategy would result in more lockdowns.

DJ A lot of ministers simply seem to have forgotten what their job is !!! If you are a minister of health and you see another pandemic wave coming at least allow people a right to study/work from home...At least start booster vaccinations for those most at risk...If governments simply fail to do a good job-instead of that push us into a global war they should have prevented-who needs that kind of "politics" ????

How is US consumer spending still so strong despite inflation outpacing wage gains for 13 straight months? Americans are simply saving less, with the savings rate moving down to 6.2%, lowest since 2013.

-

Whoa— just warned that deep concern of surging #LongCovid is taking workers out of the workforce. The spike ⬆️ in workers age 16-64 who do not work because of long term illness during the #COVID pandemic is alarming, and fast increasing. Mass infection depravity.🧵

The economic damage done by "saving the economy" is immense !!! Short term profits put above long term public health is criminal stupidity !!!!

1/ The mood is changing rapidly in Australia. The dissonance between what people have been told ("It's over", "It's mild", "It's just a cold") and what they are actually experiencing (hospital collapse, schools closing, personal and family experiences of severe illness),

Fool me once, shame on you...Fool me twice, shame on me....








In the United States, 136,000 new confirmed cases today brings the 7-day average >100,000. Real number is esitmated to be ~700,000. And >500 more people hospitalized. No reason for concern, right https://charts.medriva.com/us

DJ, ...of course...since both Pandemic and Putin start with a "P" we know who to blame...After "China/CCP"-virus, let us all blame Putin...Is that "the west" answer to major crises ? Blame-games ????

I have to cool down....I am so very angry.....end of part 2

Will be another sunny day here in NL....[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/05/carbon-dioxide-reaches-another-record-high.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/05/carbon-dioxide-reaches-another-record-high.html the "climate crisis" one of many other crisis NOT being solved !

Conclusion

In conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly by 2026, resulting in humans going extinct, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026.

At the same time, the right thing to do is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.

DJ Damage control-or at least trying to do so, may be all that remains...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 19 2022 at 2:20am

DJ, 








Fast increase of Omicron BA.4 & BA.5 genomes , now > 30 countries, > 3,000 genomes. New detections in Thailand, Iceland, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, Costa Rica, and Chile. Highest prevalence outside Africa: Portugal, highest number of genomes: USA, U.K., Germany, Austria.


Image

May give some indications on spread of BA.4/5 worldwide. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global cases +43%-however most of it because of recent reporting from North Korea (cases +1,7 million...disrupting the statistics). 

Reported cases in Europe -23%, most because lack of reporting...North America +13%, South America +7%, Oceania +15%...Africa-cases going down ? -16% ??? Some countries (a.o. Angola) stopped reporting cases...Asia cases +188%...Pakistan +95%, Taiwan +57%, Bangla Desh +48%. I find Saudi Arabia +43%, UAE +41%, Qatar +14% an extra worry...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MERS[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MERS needs an update on latest cases...[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/novel-coronavirus-ncov-mers-2012-2014/novel-coronavirus-who-chp-wpro-ecdc-oie-fao-moa-reports-and-updates/948933-who-middle-east-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-mers-oman-may-17-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/novel-coronavirus-ncov-mers-2012-2014/novel-coronavirus-who-chp-wpro-ecdc-oie-fao-moa-reports-and-updates/948933-who-middle-east-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-mers-oman-may-17-2022 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-5/preprint-enhanced-fusogenicity-of-ba-4-ba-5-and-ba-2-12-1/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-5/preprint-enhanced-fusogenicity-of-ba-4-ba-5-and-ba-2-12-1/ ;

“We found that the new Omicron subvariants BA.4/5 and BA.2.12.1 were more resistant to neutralization by mRNA-vaccinated and boosted health care worker sera and Omicron-BA.1-wave patient sera than were the BA.1 and BA.2 variants.”

Interestingly, Delta-wave patient sera neutralized more efficiently against not only Delta but also BA.4/5 and BA.2.12.1 variants that also contain substitutions at position L452, similar to Delta. The BA.4/5 and BA.2.12.1 variants also exhibited higher fusogenicity, and increased spike processing, dependent on the L452 substitution. These results highlight the key role of the L452R and L452Q mutations in BA.4/5 and BA.2.12.1 subvariants.

Preprint: Differential Evasion of Delta and Omicron Immunity and Enhanced Fusogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4/5 and BA.2.12.1 Subvariants

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cell%E2%80%93cell_fusogens[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cell%E2%80%93cell_fusogens cell-to-cell spread. 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/british-study-shows-that-viagra-can-be-used-to-treat-covid-19-related-pneumonitis-and-moderate-to-severe-ards[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/british-study-shows-that-viagra-can-be-used-to-treat-covid-19-related-pneumonitis-and-moderate-to-severe-ards link to [url]https://www.bjanaesthesia.org/article/S0007-0912(22)00186-6/fulltext[/url] or https://www.bjanaesthesia.org/article/S0007-0912(22)00186-6/fulltext ;

We hypothesised that in patients with COVID-19 ARDS with pulmonary hypertension, RV dysfunction, or both, sildenafil would improve gas exchange.
Sildenafil-treated patients with COVID-19 pneumonitis and moderate to severe ARDS were studied between March 1, 2020 and May 31, 2020. The study had ethical approval (A-CLUE 285452, IRAS reference 285452). Oxygenation and carbon dioxide (CO2) clearance were assessed immediately prior, 24 h, 48 h, and 5 days after sildenafil by averaging three blood gas and ventilator parameters to calculate the P:F ratio (Pao2:Fio2), oxygenation index, dead space fraction, and ventilatory ratio. 

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sildenafil[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sildenafil 

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues A.o. new form of BA.5 in Austria 

Bank of England Monetary Policy Reports: "The factor that has caused participation to fall is..a rise in long-term sickness, which is surely linked to the pandemic..The issue of long covid and the pandemic effect’s on public health and participation is  a very serious issue..

DJ, "freedom" to save "the economy" PROFITS !!!! Of course was a stupid short term choice...








If you are taking the right precautions to avoid SARS-CoV-2, you are not going to be infected with monkeypox. Trust me on this one.

Protection against one virus may protect against a lot of virusses...Monkeypox-see latest news-may be a global problem. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-scientific-studies-including-seasonal-novel-flu/939497-the-changing-epidemiology-of-human-monkeypox%E2%80%94a-potential-threat-a-systematic-review[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-scientific-studies-including-seasonal-novel-flu/939497-the-changing-epidemiology-of-human-monkeypox%E2%80%94a-potential-threat-a-systematic-review ;

Conclusions

The waning population immunity associated with discontinuation of smallpox vaccination has established the landscape for the resurgence of monkeypox. This is demonstrated by the increases in number of cases and median age of individuals acquiring monkeypox as well as the re-emergence of outbreaks in some countries after an absence of 30–40 years. Further, the appearance of cases outside of Africa highlights the risk for geographical spread and the global relevance of the disease. The possibility for human-to-human transmission is a concern not just among household members, but also among providers of care to diseased individuals. In light of the current environment for pandemic threats, the public health importance of monkeypox disease should not be underestimated. International support for increased surveillance and detection of monkeypox cases are essential tools for understanding the continuously changing epidemiology of this resurging disease.
...
https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/a...l.pntd.0010141

DJ [url]https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0010141[/url] or https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0010141 

Yet another major global healthproblem....

End of part 1

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 20 2022 at 2:34am

DJ, The monkeypox "outbreak" -I would like to call it early stages of a pandemic-with most likely already over 1.000 cases and spread in more then one WHO region-may be taking some attention away from the CoViD-worsening-pandemic. 

New preprint looks at how well blood from vaccinated & people with prev infection (& vaxxed too!) did against new growing Omicron variants BA.2.12.1, BA4/5. Basically, BA4/5 & BA.2.12.1 (but less so) are quite a bit better at evading antibodies than prev Omicron variants 1/3

-

BA.4/5 keeps growing fast in Amsterdam! 15% this week, 1% 3 weeks ago. Please notice that the Netherlands did have a higher BA.2 than BA.1 wave. Thanks to all the people still getting tested, GGD for taking the tests and the people from the labs processing them, etc.. 👏


DJ [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global cases +44%-due to very high North Korean numbers...but even so North America cases +7%, Oceania cases +13%...In Asia Taiwan seeing cases +48%, Pakistan +57%...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/another-study-findings-adds-to-the-increasing-evidence-that-sars-cov-2-infection-increases-risk-of-brain-degeneration-that-will-lead-to-parkinson-s-di[url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/another-study-findings-adds-to-the-increasing-evidence-that-sars-cov-2-infection-increases-risk-of-brain-degeneration-that-will-lead-to-parkinson-s-di sease...Again-the corona-virus can cause damage all over the body...DJ-Most likely also can result in less protection against other diseases...(like monkeypox). 








29) Folks- I know a lot of past monkeypox data shows it’s less transmissible. But have we seen a simultaneous multi country outbreak of monkeypox like of the degree of the past week before? No. Something is different. Something has changed with the virus. Let’s be precautious.

DJ I would be very surprised if it was NOT somehow linked with CoViD...Some other diseases did see more spread after restrictions/lockdowns ended...so it could be an indirect link. 

However it fits in my idea of [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_swine_fever_virus#2018-2020_African_swine_fever_panzootic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_swine_fever_virus#2018-2020_African_swine_fever_panzootic being related to CoViD maybe secondary disease-not noticed-in pigs, jumping to people. Less protection/immunity in human hosts now giving other diseases more room for spread. 

Severe weather [url]https://www.estofex.org/[/url] or https://www.estofex.org/ expected in my region; A level 3 was issued in a belt of north - central Germany for severe to extremely severe wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes and excessive rainfall.

We still may get some of it here...So that will be all for today !

Stay safe & sane !

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DJ, I ended my writing yesterday with weather-warnings; 

[url]https://www.dw.com/en/germany-tornado-causes-major-damage-in-western-towns/a-61883911[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/germany-tornado-causes-major-damage-in-western-towns/a-61883911 and [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/05/20/approaching-storm-triggers-orange-warning-limburg-supercell-tornado-possible-gelderland[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/05/20/approaching-storm-triggers-orange-warning-limburg-supercell-tornado-possible-gelderland 

The SE of NL (Limburg) did see a small tornado...most of the damage-lots of wounded-in Germany (and we-here in Gelderland-estern part of NL-only had some rain and wind...noting major...)

I wanted to use "scenario's" for the "big picture/helicopter view..

-CoViD is in another global wave

-Monkeypox close to [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern "pre-pandemic"...but to early to say...

-US trying to stay #1...so far not very succesfull-the west facing economic crisis..

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-u-s-nih-study-shows-that-a-variety-of-neuropathic-symptoms-may-manifest-after-covid-19-shots[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-u-s-nih-study-shows-that-a-variety-of-neuropathic-symptoms-may-manifest-after-covid-19-shots link to [url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.05.16.22274439v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.05.16.22274439v1 ;

Abstract

Background and Objectives Various peripheral neuropathies, particularly those with sensory and autonomic dysfunction may occur during or shortly after acute COVID-19 illnesses. These appear most likely to reflect immune dysregulation. If similar manifestations can occur with the vaccination remains unknown.

Results In an observational study, we studied 23 patients (92% female; median age 40years) reporting new neuropathic symptoms beginning within 1 month after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. 100% reported sensory symptoms comprising severe face and/or limb paresthesias, and 61% had orthostasis, heat intolerance and palpitations. Autonomic testing in 12 identified seven with reduced distal sweat production and six with positional orthostatic tachycardia syndrome. Among 16 with lower-leg skin biopsies, 31% had diagnostic/subthreshold epidermal neurite densities (≤5%), 13% were borderline (5.01-10%) and 19% showed abnormal axonal swelling. Biopsies from randomly selected five patients that were evaluated for immune complexes showed deposition of complement C4d in endothelial cells. Electrodiagnostic test results were normal in 94% (16/17). Together, 52% (12/23) of patients had objective evidence of small-fiber peripheral neuropathy. 58% patients (7/12) treated with oral corticosteroids had complete or near-complete improvement after two weeks as compared to 9% (1/11) of patients who did not receive immunotherapy having full recovery at 12 weeks. At 5-9 months post-symptom onset, 3 non-recovering patients received intravenous immunoglobulin with symptom resolution within two weeks.

Conclusions This observational study suggests that a variety of neuropathic symptoms may manifest after SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations and in some patients might be an immune-mediated process.

DJ; Of course you would like to have medical info on these patients/people prior to vaccination. Also you need to make clear that the vaccination did cause these healthissues...

Again-with monkeypox-how was the CoViD (vaccination) history of monkeypox cases ??? Did CoViD weaken immunity ? Did vaccination increase vulnerability ??? With 90 confirmed monkeypox cases in western countries -more on the way- CoViD-background for most of them is available...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table with North Korea reporting getting over 1 week old statistics for the world/Asia are going down. Global cases +28%, global deaths -9%. North Korea cases by the way +440%, deaths NK=+883%.

Asia cases +112%, deaths -8%. North America cases +7%, Oceania cases +8%, deaths +9%...Europe, Africa, South America cases going down...at least for now...

BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/BA.5 substantially escape NAbs induced by both vaccination and infection. H/T 

DJ, So some new sub-variants also evading BA.1 and BA.2 (recent) infection-immunity...boosters...

Vaccinated or not, most people are still infectious 5 days after symptom onset. You can't control a pandemic by shortening isolation. It may indeed increase overall pandemic duration and maintain higher between-wave case loads, exactly what we're seeing. https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.05.15.22275051v1

Experts going for stupid do a lot of damage ! If at home testing is positive you spread the virus !!! It is that simple !!! If work/school needs you there you will infect others...

Because of "but in South-Africa and Portugal they didn't have a big BA.2 wave", and A'dam had one + 15% BA.4/5, I decided to look into the Danish numbers again. Since they: - had a big BA.2 wave - still sequence very many samples BA.4/5 = ~L452R+F486V, BA.2.12.1 = ~L452Q 1/7


Image

Image

and

I looked at L452M as well. This mutation was seen a lot and was growing in Belgium, were it is mostly seen in BA.2.13. In Denmark it was bigger in BA.2.9.1, but as you can see growth differs between assigned lineages. I will keep an eye on that as well.

DJ, Lots of mutations-resulting in lots of sub-variants-resulting in lots of spread....Unclear if BA.4/5 (like) will "beat" BA.2.12.1...








In two years covering COVID, I've rarely heard pandemic experts in Connecticut so dispirited. By this time of year, the numbers were supposed to be low. Instead, they are not. Now, as  said, “This game isn’t showing signs of ending.”

DJ, I do not have the knowledge to say if Geert van den Bossche [url]https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/[/url] or https://www.voiceforscienceandsolidarity.org/ did have a point in has warning against vaccines making matters worse....In my opinion using vaccines to drop restrictions was a stupid choice...but again-I am not an expert !








Why did she say that? Because she & everyone else thought the pandemic is over, so they hoped to achieve boom escape velocity into the next Roaring 20s. Why would she think that? Because she & everyone else accepted advice they craved to hear: bad advice from the wrong "experts".

and 

Lawrence McDonald

@Convertbond
 · 
One Year Ago - "Yellen advises G7 to "Go Big" in stimulus measures."

DJ...is this pandemic, climate collapse, fiat-currency such a mess "the west" "needs" global warfare ???

*US COVID CASES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN DAYS, WEEKS AHEAD: JHA *COVID-19 VACCINES WILL HAVE TO BE UPDATED IN FALL, WINTER: JHA

What about nasal vaccines, better anti-virals ? Most of the funding for it now "going to Ukraine related pockets" ????

Again-this pandemic/these pandemics are the outcome of political disasters...an ideology ignoring history and going for short term greed/profits...

[url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam following monkeypox

The US’s second Omicron surge is fully here. At the end of Jan / beginning of Feb, my hypothesis was that if there wasnt a clear national surge by the end of March we would be basically surge-free until the fall. I was wrong. A few thoughts 1/🧵

DJ..NOT dropping all restrictions, NOT claiming "the pandemic is over" may have made a major difference...Yes-we are learning-but a lot of what is happening is NOT new !!!!

If a virus is NOT stopped [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth

The growth of a bacterial colony is often used to illustrate it. One bacterium splits itself into two, each of which splits itself resulting in four, then eight, 16, 32, and so on. The amount of increase keeps increasing because it is proportional to the ever-increasing number of bacteria. Growth like this is observed in real-life activity or phenomena, such as the spread of virus infection, the growth of debt due to compound interest, and the spread of viral videos. In real cases, initial exponential growth often does not last forever, instead slowing down eventually due to upper limits caused by external factors and turning into logistic growth.

Terms like "exponential growth" are sometimes incorrectly interpreted as "rapid growth". Indeed, something that grows exponentially can in fact be growing slowly at first

that basic idea is milennia old...going back to ancient Greek !!! 









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