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I’m very concerned that this is a reflection of original antigenic seniority.
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| Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
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Dutch Josh 
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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 Posted: March 02 2022 at 2:59am |
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DJ, A short update; [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/hong-kong-nine-day-lockdown-expected/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/hong-kong-nine-day-lockdown-expected/ ; South China Morning Post are reporting that a nine-day Covid-19 lockdown of Hong Kong is expected, and that “each resident will be required to undergo three tests during the mass testing,” the source said. “The mass testing is expected to start after the middle of this month, and a large-scale lockdown will be imposed during the period.”
Update: Hong Kong is expected to confirm a record 50,000 coronavirus cases on Wednesday
** We are hearing March 17th as a potential start date for the lockdown, although other reports are saying it could be later as the Hong Kong government would prefer for the existing wave to peak. ** DJ, BA.2 seems to be the main problem in Hong Kong...cases +216% ! [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/france-at-least-10-cases-of-ba-1-ay-4-deltacron-recombinant-confirmed/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/france-at-least-10-cases-of-ba-1-ay-4-deltacron-recombinant-confirmed/ France: At least 10 cases of BA.1/AY.4 Deltacron recombinants confirmedAs of 01/21/2022, 10 sequences that may correspond to a Delta/Omicron recombinant have been identified in France… this recombinant has potentially already been circulating at very low levels since mid-January. On 02/16/2022, a discussion thread was opened on the Github bioinformatics forum of the Pangolin nomenclature tool about a Delta/Omicron recombinant potential in France. Performed from the GISAID database, these analyzes had identified four sequences from France, four sequences from Denmark and one sequence from the Netherlands which form a separate phylogenetic branch. DJ [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/444[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/444 as link [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-german-and-uk-research-indicates-that-people-infected-with-sars-cov-2-may-have-different-variants-hidden-in-various-parts-of-the-body[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-german-and-uk-research-indicates-that-people-infected-with-sars-cov-2-may-have-different-variants-hidden-in-various-parts-of-the-body DJ-At least the idea was not new....it may point to Alpha variant for example doing damage in the liver, kidneys...Delta in the lungs, brain...and an Omicron infection in the upper respitory system....DJ-As far as I understand it the person even may have no or mild symptoms but also could be spreading the virus (a.o. via stool...why still tests for it are not around ???) "F.ck science" seems the global "pandemic strategy" (or lack of it...). "We have had this pandemic for over two years" ฬ so..."it must be over"...maybe some countries willing to "bomb the virus" ??? Stupidity rules, insanity as a new normal.... We can NOT survive if we are not willing to face facts....ignore climate change, pandemic risks, risks of nuclear war....are we that self-destructive and insane ???? |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 03 2022 at 12:01am |
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DJ-I do not agree with NATO trying to include Ukraine...it is the basis of this crisis...if you deny that how you think you can solve the problem ? If you claim "the pandemic is over", "it is only mild", "we have to live with it" what you are going to do when it is not over...a new variant turns out not to be mild...you only can "live with it if you want to die from it"... Some governments go for less/no testing and/or reporting...If I close my eyes "I do not see the man with the gun" and I am safe-strategy...One BIG problem...denying the problem makes matters worse... Of course-that is just my opinion...again I am not an expert, not "objective or neutral" (but by now I am starting to hate those that claim to be "objective and neutral" but simply close their eyes for even recent history...disgusting !)... I hope I do not get blocked-by a political figure-for claiming the pandemic is NOT over...(or will some government type re-write my writings...?).... Western government going for blatant lies in crises are self destructive ! They make democracy into a "democrazy" in wich not votes but $, € count...They do not serve you but their paymasters ! To start with maybe some nuances; -I think vaccines may still offer some protection. However vaccines are NOT 100% safe for all...it is medical intervention. Most countries did see 80/90% of their population willing to accept vaccines...it did not get mandatory in most countries for most of the people...(in healthcare, the military etc. it may have gotten mandatory but if there was an allergy you do not enforce a vaccine...) -However new variants are getting better and better in evading immunity (both after infection and vaccination...by the way BOTH are "natural immunity"...the vaccine is supposed to activate immunity...). -Some claim mRNA vaccins are "medication"...I do see their point..they even may have some point...but still I also think it may be a word-game...There are also non-mRNA vaccines...most of the world can not afford the (expensive) mRNA vaccines...had to go for other ones (India once exported a lot of those non mRNA vaccines...now need them for their own population...China did become a major vaccine exporter, so did the EU, Russia...the US is the main exporter of (for profit) mRNA vaccines...(with a lot of production outside the US...) -Non Pharma Interventions-in my opinion-so far may have showed the best results...masks, social distance, limiting travel, contacts..."you can make your own choices-but need good info"... [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/what-the-ipcc-impacts-report-is-hiding.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/what-the-ipcc-impacts-report-is-hiding.html may give an insight in how some countries will NOT solve the problems; 1. Hiding the potential rise that has already unfolded 2. Hiding the potential rise to come 3. Hiding the largest dangers 4. Hiding the very policies that can most effectively improve the situation DJ; In climate change of course more critical scientists did get defunded....(in history only those "friendly" to TPTB may have a chance to make an income out of working in history...)..So defund those scientists that still claim "the pandemic is NOT over"...Of course name them "alarmists", doing "the wrong kind of science" Excess deaths may give a more realistic picture-but even there "politics/democrazy" could go for "delays"...most of the world does not have a good births/deaths-administration...so most excess/CoViD deaths can and will be ignored...."the poor don't count"... Also the potential new (sort of) variants "are in theory"..."in the future"..."not detected yet" (because we stopped/decreased sequencing...maybe even going for only detecting low risk variants...)... Bodies piling up-no problem...saving the economy "is also saving lives".....(and who need "the old and sick anyway"? ...somehow human rights are denied to them ? But even that "old & sick" die most is simply incorrect often...) DJ-If governments go for lies....propaganda...denial of (all kind) of problems...again-this pandemic did become a political problem...Since way to many governments go for "hopium" and lies the pandemic only will get worse...other problems (climate change, wars) also worsens...to a level we CAN NOT SURVIVE !!! Politics going for high speed in a death end street.... [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/beware-the-ides-of-march-covid-19-is-not-over,-the-worse-is-yet-to-come[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/beware-the-ides-of-march-covid-19-is-not-over,-the-worse-is-yet-to-come ...We did lose the fight (if there ever was a serious fight) against the virus....Once the virus is "in the body" it could "stay/hide" in the body...even with no or only mild symptoms...It is NOT !!! a flu !!! Are we now very close to yet another global war because "governments know the pandemic only will get much more ugly" ? I only can hope this is NOT the case...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues mentioning B.1 (Omicron) in Canadian deer...BA.1/BA.2 recombination-another one-in UK/Ireland...(there was just 10 days ago yet another Finland BA.1/BA.2 recombination)..."Deltacron" variants must be spreading...lots of other (sub)variants on more local levels... SternLab@SternLab Where do variants of concern come from? In a study led by @SheriHarari we compared mutations across 27 chronic infections, ๐งต below : https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.17.22270829v1…. TL;DR: we think a trade-off between immune evasion and transmissibility constrains evolution in chronic infection. link; [url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.17.22270829v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.17.22270829v1 DJ-If all of the truths become "political inconvenient" and governments switch to agressive-massive lies...we are lost... Hope to find a better perspective...do not like the present one... Stay Safe, Sane, Secure...(S4) |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 04 2022 at 3:12am |
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DJ, I think the international political crisis now is a very serious risk...even worse then the pandemic. That is why I dit write a lot about it in "World War Three"...latest news... [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/03/dutch-coronavirus-infections-surge-58391-636-testing-positive[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/03/dutch-coronavirus-infections-surge-58391-636-testing-positive ; The Netherlands recorded the most coronavirus infections in over two weeks, with 58,391 people testing positive between Wednesday and Thursday morning. It was the fifth straight day that infections rose, and the increase has been swift. The number of positive tests registered by the RIVM was more than double what was reported on Monday. The newest data pushed the seven-day moving average up 7 percent to 38,608, according to raw data from the health institute. After a weeks-long period where the average consistently fell, the new moving average was nearly flat compared to last Thursday. About 63.6 percent of those tested by the GGD between February 22-28 received the positive diagnosis. That likely set a new record for the Netherlands. A week ago, that figure was 59.0%.Testing on average fell further to a low for the year, 53,100 people tested per day. That showed signs of rising again, particularly in areas where Carnival was celebrated over the weekend. - Intensive care units were treating 155 patients with Covid-19, close to a four-month low. That was five fewer than on Wednesday afternoon. Another 1,256 patients with the disease were in regular care wards, down 29 after accounting for new admissions, discharges and deaths. Combined, the hospitals were treating 1,411 patients infected with the coronavirus. That fell by 9 percent in a week. DJ [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD BA.2 on its way to get dominant in NL...as in many other places [url]https://github.com/lenaschimmel/desh-data[/url] or https://github.com/lenaschimmel/desh-data (Germany...) A total of 27/96(28%) randomly selected SARS-CoV-2 positive samples, collected 2nd March 2022 at testing facilities, were positive for a BA.1-like variant and 68/96(71%) for a BA.2-like. Thanks to & . A look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ NL cases -0,7%...with very limited testing...next week schools will reopen resulting in an even further increase of cases... Yesterday the world did see 1,613, 593 cases being reported...the day before it was just under 1,6 million cases...global number of deaths now over 6 million... Global trends for cases -14%, deaths -22%... Germany reporting (march 3) 202,338 new cases-trend -8%, 289 deaths, trend -5% South Korea reported 198,802 new cases-trend +40%, deaths 128-trend there +56% Vietnam had 118,790 new cases-trend +78%, 95 deaths +9% Both the US and UK claim less then 50,000 new cases...[url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time indicating UK cases may be decreasing somewhat...still very high-over 2 million UK citizens infected...and the "decrease may be limited"... One of the major problem in this pandemic is "denying there is a pandemic"...most of the time but testing and sequencing simply was not enough to get a good view...By now denialism may result in even less info on where we are... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-2-h78y/denmark-omicron-ba-2-h78y-cases-stable-in-week-9-infections-report/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-2-h78y/denmark-omicron-ba-2-h78y-cases-stable-in-week-9-infections-report/ ; Denmark has published its latest Covid-19 infections report for Week 9 of 2022. As per last week, there is little change in the BA.2.H78Y infection rate, which still represents around 27% of all BA.2 infections. As the total level of cases falls across Denmark, other sub-variants of Omicron such as BA.1.1 are also struggling to compete with the dominant BA.2 variant. “The number of new hospital admissions has increased by 11% in week 8 …the number of COVID-related deaths has increased in week 8 …there are still signs of slight excess mortality*.” DJ, DK cases-worldometers -40%, deaths +6%...Eric Feigl-Ding ๐๐@DrEricDing ๐Behold Danish CDC continuing to gaslight epidemiologists like @DGBassani that ๐ฉ๐ฐ’s near vertical death surge is no big deal. Meanwhile—Danish excess mortality โก๏ธnow running very high above “considerable” excess deaths๐. So shameful of SSI social media. https://ssi.dk/sygdomme-beredskab-og-forskning/sygdomsovervaagning/d/overvaagning-af-doedelighed Is DenmarK playing with numbers (as well) ? It certainly makes it harder to get a realistic view... [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/university-of-tennessee-study-warns-that-mild-sars-cov-2-infection-increases-risk-of-opportunistic-pneumococcal-coinfection[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/university-of-tennessee-study-warns-that-mild-sars-cov-2-infection-increases-risk-of-opportunistic-pneumococcal-coinfection DJ There were earlier warnings for fungal (co)infections...lots of links in the article...Basic fact is most of us have all kind of bacteria, virus, etc that can make us (very) ill if they get the chance... If there are lots of ill people other diseases also may get more chance... A lot of twitter now showing "scientists being very loyal to their governments"...no doubt facing de-funding since a lot of governments "want to believe the pandemic is history".... South Korea reports 266,853 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record DJ [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=KOR&dark=true[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=KOR&dark=true latest info from february 7...at that time South Korea sequences of the last 60 days did have 3% BA.2...it most likely by now is pushing up numbers high speed...Asia cases still +4%, deaths -6%. Oceania cases +50%, deaths -12%...New Zealand now the major factor..cases there +491%...the last 7 days NZ had 120,625 new cases on a population of just over 5 million... For those who want to participate in Long Covid research here is a link to sign up 1/ https://openredcap.nyumc.org/apps/redcap/surveys/?s=TYCLM7PE97 [url]https://recovercovid.org/faqs#plan[/url] or https://recovercovid.org/faqs#plan DJ-Long CoVid is one of the major aspects of this pandemic being ignored....Good there are at least some serious studies in that direction... I surprised myself this morning: COVID deaths in the UK are an order of magnitude greater than they were in summer/autumn 2020
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=overview%26areaName=United%20Kingdom#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported DJ [url]https://twitter.com/OxfordFrom/status/1499672588779409413/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/OxfordFrom/status/1499672588779409413/photo/1 We had no vaccines but lots of NPI...if we would have continued that long enough it could have ended the pandemic in 2020...but-"saving the economy"-we did not... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 04 2022 at 10:10pm |
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DJ, Limited news; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; new reported cases; 1,646,471 trend -11%. Reported deaths 8,001 trend -20%. South Korea reporting 266,838 new cases (!!!) +42% over 2 million cases last two weeks on a population of 51,3 million...4%+ testing positive in the last two weeks. South Korea reporting 186 deaths on march 4-trend +59%...South Korea did see 797 deaths in the last 7 days, the week before it was 500. Germany had 203,972 new cases - trend -6% (BA.2 did become dominant...cases will go up...) German deaths 252 trend -3% On position 3 for most new cases we find Vietnam 125,587 new cases, trend +72%. Vietnam did see 97 deaths-trend +13% NL now on #6 with 68,309 new cases-trend +16% (limited testing)...10 deaths-trend still -19% Hong Kong at #9...US #10, UK #11...also special Malaysia at #14 Indonesia at #16...both countries report cases going down... South Korea; [url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220305001451320?section=business/health[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220305001451320?section=business/health ; SEOUL, March 5 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's daily COVID-19 cases stayed above 250,000 for the second consecutive day Saturday, and the daily death count reached another high amid the fast spread of the omicron variant. The country reported 254,327 new COVID-19 infections, including 254,250 local cases, raising the total caseload to 4,212,652, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA). The daily tally went down slightly from the previous day's 266,853, when the figure hit a record high two days after daily infections surpassed 200,000 for the first time since the country reported the first virus case in January 2020. Saturday's tally marked a 50-percent increase from a week ago, and more than a twofold growth from two weeks ago, the KDCA said. The total COVID-19 caseload surpassed 4 million Saturday, just five days after reaching the 3 million mark. The total count surpassed the 1 million mark earlier this month, the KDCA said. DJ [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=KOR&dark=true[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=KOR&dark=true new cases may be BA.2, more serious cases/deaths will be BA.1 sub variants.... India [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/india/preprint-fourth-wave-of-covid-19-in-india-statistical-forecasting/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/india/preprint-fourth-wave-of-covid-19-in-india-statistical-forecasting/ ; The fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in India may start around June 22nd 2022, and peak from mid-to-late August, a modelling study by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology-Kanpur suggests. “The data indicates that the fourth wave of COVID-19 in India will arrive after 936 days from the initial data availability date, which is January 30, 2020,” the authors say. “Therefore, the fourth wave starts from June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022, and ends on October 24, 2022,” Preprint: Fourth Wave of COVID-19 in India : Statistical Forecasting DJ [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/transmission/is-the-global-sars-cov-2-decline-already-petering-out/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/transmission/is-the-global-sars-cov-2-decline-already-petering-out/ In worldometer statistics India cases -50%, deaths -38% [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=IND&dark=true[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=IND&dark=true India allready has 66% of all last 60 days sequencing BA.2...dominant by now... It is allready clear BA.2 is not the last (sub)variant. DenmarK did see a BA.2+ variant...lots of BA.1/BA.2 recombinations have allready been detected..."Deltacron" so far maybe somewhat less... [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/455[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/455 ; Potential BA.4 lineage with a mix of BA.1 and BA.3 mutations [5 seq, South Africa and USA] #455
DJ, A new mega-mix ??? South Africa bringing another surprise ? Still it is very early-limited numbers...may turn out to be nothing. South Africa cases still -21%...for that matter maybe not that alarming... Limited further news both on twitter and Flutrackers...why cases in England and Northern Ireland go down Scotland go up...? Many places dropping mask-rules...while cases go up...At worldometer trends 37 countries report cases going up...(my impression the number of it is still decreasing...will go up soon...). With 39 countries reporting % of CoViD deaths still going up we may be at the end-in general-of a global wave...sad part...we will be at the start of a new wave... There is discussion on "Omicron being mild" with indications Omicron may be "slow" a lot of people may die from it but not be in the CoViD statistics...Denmark excess deaths [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ was high... By now we know CoViD can result in lots of infections all over the body....a nose/oral swab-test may miss the virus...A blood test could even miss the virus (but would give indications for an infection). Both non-human CoViD spread and long term infections may result in newer variants...Recombinations may be the result of co-infection with two (sub)variants... We did see over 3,8 million daily cases around january 21...a lot of them in France...We may now be at 1,6 million daily cases...however most people may not get tested...so there is also less sequencing...it is "under the radar"... Ukraine is now the main news (and for good reasons !) but the pandemic is far from over....So I end with [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/beware-the-ides-of-march-covid-19-is-not-over,-the-worse-is-yet-to-come[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/beware-the-ides-of-march-covid-19-is-not-over,-the-worse-is-yet-to-come reposting it... Stay safe and sane ! |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 06 2022 at 12:03am |
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DJ-A lot of news on the Ukraine War...but this pandemic starting to show up in the news as well... Maybe major; [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-catastrophic-covid-19-infections-and-hospitalizations-in-hong-kong-driven-by-new-ba-2-subvariant-with-an-extra-i1221t-spike-mutation[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-catastrophic-covid-19-infections-and-hospitalizations-in-hong-kong-driven-by-new-ba-2-subvariant-with-an-extra-i1221t-spike-mutation with Thailand Medical News (TMN) also making claims that a lot of sub-variants-for political reasons-are ignored. Both Delta and Omicron sub-variants spreading TMN claims a.o. in Vietnam, Germany, New Zealand, UK, Canada...Newer variants a.o. in Chad, Nigeria... DJ...I believe these claims.... Omicron was able to infect hundreds of millions of people in just a few months...much higher, faster, spread then any other variant so far. This must have resulted in lots of new mutations/sub-variants... [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Hong Kong cases +334%/deaths +298%...Vietnam cases +68%, deaths +8%...South Korea cases +42%, deaths +67%...for that matter NL cases by now +29%, deaths still -10%.. TMN link to [url]https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/World/AllSamples/Past6M/variants?aaMutations=S%3AI1221T&pangoLineage=BA.2[/url] or https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/World/AllSamples/Past6M/variants?aaMutations=S%3AI1221T&pangoLineage=BA.2 ...Hong Kong variant of BA.2 with 1-1221T mutation...among many others (see link). Also [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/hong-kong-omicron-ba-2-with-si1221t-mutation-at-100-of-recent-sequences/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/hong-kong-omicron-ba-2-with-si1221t-mutation-at-100-of-recent-sequences/ ; A catchup post looking at the BA.2 variant with mutation S:I1221T. The combination represents almost all of the recent BA.2 sequences from Hong Kong, so the mutation may be significant. This mutational combination seems to have first been mentioned by Raj Rajnarayana on Twitter on the 4th March 2022, although it was originally reported to Github by @bitbyte2015 weeks earlier. Not "breaking news" because not only the Ukrain War but also most governments dream "the pandemic is over"...it is NOT !!!! Again-some good points in it [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/beware-the-ides-of-march-covid-19-is-not-over,-the-worse-is-yet-to-come[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/beware-the-ides-of-march-covid-19-is-not-over,-the-worse-is-yet-to-come "the virus did win"...Governments simply stopped fighting the pandemic claiming-based on only hopium-"it will be mild"....Why ? Why would a disease suddenly become mild-after being very ugly most of its time ???? -DJ Hong Kong had "hamster-Delta" AY.127 [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=HKG&dark=true[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=HKG&dark=true some of it may have resulted in a new BA.2 (sub)variant... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/nearly-6-of-horses-had-detectable-antibodies-to-sars-cov-2/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/nearly-6-of-horses-had-detectable-antibodies-to-sars-cov-2/ ; Amongst the racing thoroughbreds, 35/587 (5.9%) horses had detectable antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Similar to dogs and cats, horses do not seem to develop clinical SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, horses can act as incidental hosts and experience silent infection following spillover from humans with COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2-infected humans should avoid close contact with equids during the time of their illness. Research study: Investigation of the Role of Healthy and Sick Equids in the COVID-19 Pandemic through Serological and Molecular Testing DJ...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MERS[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MERS is linked to camals...US/Canada deer do have lots of variants of CoViD...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/more-than-60-animals-confirmed-with-coronavirus-sars-cov-2-infection/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/more-than-60-animals-confirmed-with-coronavirus-sars-cov-2-infection/ ...Omicron BA.1 may have some of its development in mice...Minks mix great with CoViD.... this pandemic is now spreading in lots of non-human hosts...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues may be just only a tiny tip of the iceberg... [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports now has lots of BA.1 sub-variants (BA.1.1 to BA.15.1) but "only " just BA.2 and BA.3 (with potential in South Africa a BA.4...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/455[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/455 ; DJ...is this pandemic "out of control" ? YES !!! [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/05/dutch-coronavirus-average-shoots-29-week-hospitalizations-start-rising[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/05/dutch-coronavirus-average-shoots-29-week-hospitalizations-start-rising ; For the second day in a row, well over 65,000 people tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. The RIVM said it learned of 67,229 positive tests between Friday and Saturday morning. That pushed the seven-day moving average up substantially to 47,893, based solely on raw data. The average rose by 29 percent since last Saturday. The Netherlands eliminated nearly all of its remaining coronavirus restrictions one week ago. In announcing plans return society to a more normal way of life, the Cabinet warned that an increase in infections was to be expected. About 68.2 percent of those tested by the GGD during the seven-day period from Feb. 25 to Mar. 3 received the positive diagnosis for the coronavirus infection. That set a new record, with over 70 percent of those tested on Thursday learning they were infected. During that time, about 65,000 people were tested daily, up from 57,000 the previous week. That 14 percent increase was the first rise in testing figures since the end of January. - For the fifth straight day, hospitals admitted an above average number of new Covid-19 patients. A total of 181 patients with the disease were admitted in the past 24 hours, including 12 sent to intensive care. On average, hospitals admitted 155 patients each of the past seven days, down 5 percent in a week. Intensive care units in the Netherlands were treating 157 patients with Covid-19, an increase of ten since Friday afternoon. That figure has held between 145 and 200 for more than three weeks, and has fluctuated above and below 160 for about a week. Another 1,201 patients were in regular care wards, a net decrease of 43. That put the Covid-19 patient total at 1,358 on Saturday afternoon, down 33 in a day after accounting for new admissions, discharges, and deaths. The patient total has fallen by about 3 percent in a week, which could be flattening out after consistently declining since mid-February DJ "Omicron is mild" lie ...In South Africa BA.1 was "slow" not mild...in Denmark excess deaths did increase...because CoViD may now result in infections all over the body...but if you stick to "dying within 28 days of a positive test" as a definition the-VERY WRONG !!!!-conclusion could be "it is mild"...it is NOT !!!! mild !!!! [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/04/dutch-health-service-starts-administering-second-covid-booster-shots[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/04/dutch-health-service-starts-administering-second-covid-booster-shots ...I will go for the extra booster if I can...but I do not expect miracles from it... To end this part [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ top 3 for cases; #1 South Korea; 254,326 cases, 216 deaths #2 Germany 144,427 cases, 153 deaths #3 Vietnam 131,817 cases, 82 deaths... March 5 did see a global 1,373,131 new cases-trend -10%, 5,651 deaths, trend -19%...Asia cases +9%, deaths -0,3%. Oceania cases +45%, deaths +0,7% (New Zealand cases +222%, deaths +133%...from 3 last week to 7 this week...Australia had 271 deaths in the last 7 days +8%...) There are 40 countries now reporting an increase of cases, 38 report increase of deaths...) End for today... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 07 2022 at 5:27am |
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[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table cases -8%, deaths -19%. 38 countries report increase of cases, 37 increase of deaths. [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/germany/germany-coronavirus-could-remain-for-decades/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/germany/germany-coronavirus-could-remain-for-decades/ ; German Health Minister Lauterbach expects a possible coronavirus wave in Germany this autumn. The virus could “keep us busy for a long time – a decade or more”. The Minister of Health believes it is possible that the coronavirus will remain for several decades: “I’m pretty sure that we’ll get an autumn wave. And Corona will keep us busy for a long time after that – a decade or more.” He pointed out that the HIV virus appeared 40 years ago – “and it’s still there”. Lauterbach said: “We always have to reckon with corona variants, and there can also be dangerous variants.”
** Possibly the first politician to make an honest and realistic assessment of the long term dangers posed by the virus ** DJ, Pattern in the 2+ years is; -widening of where the virus can spread....non human hosts...but also children did show limited disease in the early stages now seem to be increasingly effected. -More subvariants, Delta had 215+, Omicron-by now-may allready have "hundreds" of subvariants.... -More and more indications the virus may be able to hide in a person...cause disease/infection all over the body NOT taking this virus serious is allowing the virus to spread even further...will bring even more damage. China now reporting an increase of cases at 28%, 1,776 last 7 days, 1,385 the week before (Hong Kong cases +244%, last 7 days 300,303...the week before 87,365. Last 7 days 1,348 Hong Kong deaths...the week before it was 371) [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/hong-kong-omicron-ba-2-with-si1221t-mutation-at-100-of-recent-sequences/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/hong-kong-omicron-ba-2-with-si1221t-mutation-at-100-of-recent-sequences/ |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 07 2022 at 9:28pm |
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DJ, The world is now facing (at least) three major existential dangers; 1. Now top of the list [url]https://thesaker.is/america-shoots-its-own-dollar-empire-in-economic-attack-on-russia/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/america-shoots-its-own-dollar-empire-in-economic-attack-on-russia/ and [url]https://thesaker.is/major-military-and-political-developments-and-major-risks-next/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/major-military-and-political-developments-and-major-risks-next/ DJ-The US/NATO goal is regime change in Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, Cuba etc. If the US does not change its policies we are at the brink of a nuclear end....this year. 2. Climate "change"=climate collapse. [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/what-the-ipcc-impacts-report-is-hiding.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/what-the-ipcc-impacts-report-is-hiding.html another major risk ignored via tunnelvision. It may be allready to late to stop the proces, but maybe we can still have some effect in slowing it down, trying to limit the damage...exponential temperature rise is allready on its way. "The Poles are melting"...can we survive this global mega-disaster another 10 years ? 3. Pandemics [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/beware-the-ides-of-march-covid-19-is-not-over,-the-worse-is-yet-to-come[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/beware-the-ides-of-march-covid-19-is-not-over,-the-worse-is-yet-to-come we are no longer stopping CoViD....playing with numbers and definitions...Global healthcare is close to collapse. Testing/sequencing at max capacity with "politics" living in their own "reality".... We now face a "mega-mix" of problems and "leaders" running away from it....underlining the basic problem is "how we live" ..... All out war and climate collapse make "fighting pandemics" impossible. Allready the economic outcome of global war is that dramatic we are at the border of international chaos. If "humans are not self-destructive" they better change what they are doing...the way they think...we can NOT survive this way ! |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 07 2022 at 10:04pm |
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DJ, [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table even with much less testing the weekly trend for cases now at -4% worldwide...deaths still -19%...Yesterday-march 7-had 1,215,297 new reported cases, 4,841 deaths being reported. [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/deaths/covid-19-six-million-deaths-recorded-in-just-over-two-years-1-prediction/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/deaths/covid-19-six-million-deaths-recorded-in-just-over-two-years-1-prediction/ ; More than six million deaths have been recorded in the Covid-19 pandemic that started just over two years ago. An unimaginably awful figure, and our sincere condolences to the families of the bereaved. Without wishing to minimise their loss in any way, however, we want to repeat a point we have made before about these statistics. As we have mentioned in a previous post, on a global daily count, despite the Alpha, Beta, Delta, Gamma, and Omicron waves, and despite the ten billion vaccines administered, deaths have rarely dipped below 5,000 cases in a day, and have never exceeded 20,000 cases in a day. Prediction: If the daily limitations given above are a constant, then global deaths from Covid-19 will continue to occur at about 3 million a year whatever we do. In March 2023, the death toll will be 9 million. No disrespect to the dead is intended. Let’s hope we’re wrong on this particular prediction. DJ, Vaccines most likely were able to save millions of lives....we ware able to defend us against "the virus"...first via NPI (lockdowns, restrictions) then (on top) vaccines...If there is no longer any support for Non Pharma Interventions (NPI) because we fooled ourselves in "Omicron being mild", present vaccines may be showing their limits and new variants most likely will be even better in spreading, may bring more severe disease and spread more in non-human hosts-resulting in even more, a larger variaty, of variants. We may just have a sort of "pandemic pause"....with extreme high numbers of new cases, number of (direct CoViD linked) deaths "limited" (excess deaths up...). That pause is over. [url]https://github.com/lenaschimmel/desh-data[/url] or https://github.com/lenaschimmel/desh-data BA.2 now dominant in Germany...so German cases going up +2%, deaths still -10%...start of yet another wave. The UK now reporting cases +23%, deaths +7%...[url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time indicating also the UK-"break" is over...Asia cases +9% as a weekly (worldometer) trend...Oceania cases +32%, deaths +10%...Europe cases -7%, deaths -17% but we will be seeing numbers going up soon...North America (cases -34%, deaths -28%) will be next in line. [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues it would be incorrect-I think-to believe ALL of the increases of cases will be from BA.2 subvariants. [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports only-still-mentioning 1 sort of BA.2...DenmarK (DK), Hong Kong (HK) a.o. allready finding their own subtypes of BA.2 . NL cases +69%, deaths -11% most likely also may see a sort of own variation/recombination of BA.2. But-again- a look at [url]https://github.com/lenaschimmel/desh-data[/url] or https://github.com/lenaschimmel/desh-data indicating BA.1, BA.3 and Delta keeps showing up.... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/children/denmark-46-of-children-aged-0-15yrs-infected-in-two-months/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/children/denmark-46-of-children-aged-0-15yrs-infected-in-two-months/ ; During the two months between December 15, 2021 and February 15, 2022, where the Omicron variant has been dominating, Denmark has experienced a surge of PCR confirmed cases. During these two months, 46% of the 0-15 year old’s have tested SARS-CoV-2 positive by PCR. Preliminary estimates of the vaccine effectiveness (VE) against PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection during a period where the Omicron variant was dominating, show a VE of 30% 14-30 days after the second vaccine dose for children 5-11 years old. - Denmark’s SSI estimates that 59% of adult Danes have been infected with Covid-19 since November 2021. Since the beginning of November 2021, about 59% of the adult Danes between the ages of 17 and 72 have been infected with covid-19. This is the latest estimate from the Statens Serum Institut (SSI), which in collaboration with the country’s blood banks has just presented the results for the third round of the blood donor survey. DJ, Lots of countries did/do see extreme high numbers of infections...most of them will not get tested. A lot of them will be asymptomatic or mild...at least for the initial phase. -Long term damage can be severe...It may be "easy to catch the virus", hard to get rid of...it still can do (a lot of) damage later on. -Given the extreme high number of cases there must also be an extreme high number of mutations/variants...the last three-four months are only the beginning of a next phase in the pandemic. -Extreme high numbers in vaccinated/earlier infected hosts will result in variants even better in evading immunity. And most countries believe they should no longer stop the virus.....Insanity as a new normal ! What should we have been doing ? Make a plan....Limiting airtravel to 5-10% of pre-pandemic would slow down viral/variant spread...Work/study from home a new normal, better ventilation for schools, public buildings that still can have a function...Increase investments in healthcare, sequencing/testing... Another wave on its way-two years into this pandemic and investments going to more war....Insanity as a new normal ! [url]https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2022/03/04/covid-ping-pong-human-to-deer-deer-to-human/?sh=6a0d609f2dd6[/url] or https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2022/03/04/covid-ping-pong-human-to-deer-deer-to-human/?sh=6a0d609f2dd6 DJ Describing how minks (and humans) may have brought the virus into deer where it is now further developing and may spread further.... One of many "hopium-based tunnel vision-claims" was "the virus may run out of variants".....[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus ; Coronaviruses are a group of related RNA viruses that cause diseases in mammals and birds. In humans and birds, they cause respiratory tract infections that can range from mild to lethal. Mild illnesses in humans include some cases of the common cold (which is also caused by other viruses, predominantly rhinoviruses), while more lethal varieties can cause SARS, MERS and COVID-19, which is causing an ongoing pandemic. In cows and pigs they cause diarrhea, while in mice they cause hepatitis and encephalomyelitis. More realistic is by now "forms of" CoViD spreading in THOUSENDS of species; From FISH !!!! [url]https://indianexpress.com/article/world/salmon-fish-may-carry-infectious-coronavirus-for-a-week-study-shows-6588096/[/url] or https://indianexpress.com/article/world/salmon-fish-may-carry-infectious-coronavirus-for-a-week-study-shows-6588096/ to birds...Bats still having tens of Corona-virusses able to spread further....In farm-animals often the only way to control a corona-virus outbreak was killing all the farm-animals... Still somehow many countries now promote/suggest "the pandemic is over".....The very worrying reality may be it just started.... DJ-I am NOT an expert, NOT neutral or objective...(if others want to make those claims...do you realy believe it ? realy ? ) End of part 1, maybe later on (more) from twitter etc. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 08 2022 at 9:44pm |
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DJ-The Ukraine war and reactions on it will further worsen this pandemic. It will increase bot prices for food and medical gear. Logistics will get very expensive. The allready high number of refugees did increase with another 2 million. Like in all wars, there are no winners ! [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; reported cases 1,604,724-trend +0,3% (!!!), deaths 6,915 trend -17% Europe trend for cases -2%, Asia +11%, Oceania +34% (New Zealand +76%, Tonga-after volcanic eruption cases +482% on a population of under 108,000 last 7 days 704 cases). [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/germany/germany-covid-test-positivity-at-51-9/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/germany/germany-covid-test-positivity-at-51-9/ ; “The positive rate determined by ALM eV rose significantly and reached 51.9 percent (previous week: 45.6 percent), the highest value since the beginning of the pandemic. The accredited laboratories in medicine are still of the opinion that not all people suffering from corona are diagnosed with a positive PCR test result. This assumption is also supported by the figures published by the Robert Koch Institute, which suggest that the incidence of infection will increase again.” ALM-ev.de press release (in German) DJ German cases +6% (last 7 days 1,169,650 - the week before 1,101,951) [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/08/weekly-covid-infections-jump-80-carnival-440000-hospitality-accounts-fifth[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/08/weekly-covid-infections-jump-80-carnival-440000-hospitality-accounts-fifth ; Health officials in the Netherlands reported a dramatic increase in the weekly number of new coronavirus infections. Some 439,775 people tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus during the seven day period ending on Tuesday morning. That was an increase of 79 percent compared to the previous week, when just under 246,000 tested positive “This sharp increase is a combined effect of the Carnival week, and the relaxation of restrictions,” the RIVM said. It was clear from data updates over the last few days that provinces where Carnival is celebrated annually were hit the hardest. DJ UK cases +53%, deaths +74%...[url]https://github.com/lenaschimmel/desh-data[/url] or https://github.com/lenaschimmel/desh-data BA.2 another major factor... Asia cases +11%, deaths -2% [url]https://inews.co.uk/news/covid-hospital-admissions-rising-across-uk-waning-immunity-older-people-1505560[/url] or https://inews.co.uk/news/covid-hospital-admissions-rising-across-uk-waning-immunity-older-people-1505560 ; In all areas except the south west of England, Covid patients remain well below the January peak, but the latest figures are likely to fuel calls for the fourth booster shot – due to be rolled out in April – to be brought forward "it is only mild" ...There simply is no realistic strategy...we go on like there is no pandemic in the middle of a pandemic... · I met 36-year-old mom today who got #COVID19 last summer after 2 vaccines. Hospitalized 4 times, has permanent lung damage (fibrosis). Previously healthy, now struggling to breathe while having brief convo. She is scared that mask mandates are dropped but… - All kinds of long term damage not showing up in most statistics at all ! Another global wave is on its way...and we are-in fact-not doing a thing to stop it... Stay safe & sane |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 09 2022 at 9:52pm |
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DJ, [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/hong-kong/hong-kong-omicron-ba-2-with-si1221t-mutation-designated-ba-2-2/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/hong-kong/hong-kong-omicron-ba-2-with-si1221t-mutation-designated-ba-2-2/ ; The dominant BA.2 lineage in Hong Kong with the spike mutation at I1221T has been designated BA.2.2. The BA.2 lineage has been split at a point that makes it easier to separate the Hong Kong variant from a BA.2 variant circulating in the UK that has a similar mutation. South Korea is also seeing a similar large surge in cases to Hong Kong, reporting a record figure of 342,446 on the 8th March 2022, up 69% in one day. I think the DenmarK (DK) variant of BA.2 will be the BA.2.1. pushing up cases in NL +84%, UK +60%, however Germany +8%, France +6%, Belgium +5%...so two new forms of BA.2 result in global cases +4%. [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/459[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/459 ; We detected in Marseille, France a hybrid genome with a Omicron BA.2 backbone but a 3' region that is approximately 3000 nucleotide-long and is a BA.1 (or 21M non BA.2) sequence, with an hybridation region comprised between nucleotides 26858-27382. We call it MixOmicron. A first genome we deposited in GISAID is EPI_ISL_10047082, and a second one has been submitted. "Deltacron" and BA.1/BA.2 recombinations may be another factor. [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/great-news-university-of-oxford-study-shows-that-even-mild-sars-cov-2-infections-can-result-in-brain-changes-and-cognitive-decline[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/great-news-university-of-oxford-study-shows-that-even-mild-sars-cov-2-infections-can-result-in-brain-changes-and-cognitive-decline ...yet another study... DJ-By now it must be clear; -Catching the virus is easy...it may be much harder to get rid of the virus... -The virus can stay in the body for months if not years... -Some findings indicate hosts with several variants in different organs.. -Even without any symptoms during early infection the virus can do a lot of damage later on... [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/09/covid-infections-highest-hospital-total-weeks[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/09/covid-infections-highest-hospital-total-weeks ; Over 74,000 coronavirus infections were diagnosed in the Netherlands since Tuesday, the highest total in 23 days. At the same time, there were 1,630 people in hospitals with Covid-19, the most in 20 days. The RIVM said that 74,325 people tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus between Tuesday and Wednesday morning. That pushed the seven-day moving average up for the ninth consecutive time. The average, based solely on raw data, stood at 66,480, an 84-percent increase in a week. The average was at its highest level since February 16. Daily infections and positivity soared after the government released nearly all coronavirus restrictions, just in time for the annual Carnival festivities. During the first seven days of the month, some 69.8 percent of those who visited the GGD tested positive for the coronavirus. That figure remained near a record high. During that time, an average of 91,405 people were tested daily, up 45 percent in a week. Hospitals in the Netherlands admitted 233 patients with the disease between Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. That includes 19 people sent directly to intensive care, the most in a day since February 19. On average, Dutch hospitals admitted 188 Covid-19 patients each of the past seven days, an increase of 28 percent since last Wednesday. DJ...Based on "hopium" most countries simply gave up any containment strategy...at best some groups may get another vaccination. A look at global statistics [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ US only reporting 39,200 new cases, still 1,265 deaths...the reported number of cases is unrealistic...half of the NL number..."Don't test-don't tell" is not a strategy but a disaster...showing utter stupidity !!! For the UK [url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time and UK cases +60% still may be in contact with reality...Tim Spector and his team doing a great job ! Global (under)reported cases at 1,698,741 new cases, weekly trend at +4%. There were 6,758 new deaths reported-trend still -15%. (Here in NL the excess deaths numbers-for early 2022 were at normal levels...of course then you have to look at wath base-line was used. If the "normal" of 2022 uses the "baselines" of 2021, 2020 with high(er) excess deaths the "new normal=high"...(In "climate" with the start of a new decade the "last 30 years" become the base line...so "normal" is what was "normal" during 1990-2020...in 2019 "normal" was 1980-2010...). Europe cases +2%, North America -29%, South America cases -11%, Asia cases +11%, Africa cases -25%, Oceania cases +29%. Australia cases +26%, New Zealand cases +39%....Tonga cases +1,211%...they did get the virus with aid after a volcanic explosion...Even with aidworkers doing the best they could not to spread the virus... Israel cases -36%, India cases -45%...Brazil cases -1%, Argentina, Bolivia -2%...Canada -8%, Cuba also -2%...the America's should expect (most likely several forms of) BA.2...USA cases -32% maybe related to lack of testing ? DJ-The global economic crisis as a result of NATO moving east will result in extreme social unrest, high transport, food costs..."Politics" in denial; going for "blame games" in stead of solutions make matters worse...Thailand Medical News; "Due to emerging datawe are abandoning some of our sites and will be launching a private paid access sitefor only 800 readers who wish to survive the coming Covid-19 surges"...One of the major problems is "making money out of a crisis"...To exploit a pandemic for profit-governments inaction for public health-is criminal stupidity"... Omicron variants showed increased spread, evading immunity...a next step may be increasing viral loads-like we did see with (lots of) Delta...resulting in massive waves of new variants-partly developed in non-human hosts-killing millions.... The present "strategyฬ most countries now go for is looking "what to do with the land when the sea pulled back" ...simply ignoring the tsunami that is coming....Since the virus must be very widespread and doing a lot of damage in slow motion other diseases (flu) may do much more damage.... "Tunnel vision-stupidity" is the "new normal"...but I hope to be very wrong ! - Q about delta-omicron recombinant?
“We are aware of this recombinant. It's a combination of Delta AY.4 and Omicron BA.1”, says .
It has been detected in France, Netherlands, Denmark, she says, but at "very low levels”. DJ...like mutations most recombinations will make the virus weaker...however if new forms start showing up most likely they must be allready at a certain level....DJ-Most new major variants (there were claims of a BA.4 from South Africa) show up in countries with even less testing and sequencing most of the richer countries had. A decrease of testing will bring more under-the-radar spread....Why would the virus now become "a mild cold" and stay that way ? The "Russian Flu" of 1890 may have been a corona-virus (so not a flu) but did see much less spread...so much less (sub)variants...It ain't over till it is over.... [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVR529qh7nQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVR529qh7nQ ...No...Not Lenny Kravitz...Odessa-1928 "The Russian Riviera"...(Soviet propaganda). |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 10 2022 at 10:29pm |
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DJ, I think it would be unwise to keep NATO agression out of this scenario's-but the "Ukraine War/World War Three" i put in latest news... NATO now is going full sanctions on Russia-stopping NATO moving east (like they stopped Napoleon, nazi's...what is it with "na" need to go east ?). Discussion also on sanctions for other countries not joining NATO in sanctions on Russia...for now China as the main target... India-untill recent the major global pharma exporter in the world-also keeps doing bussiness with Russia...So will NATO (see themselve as 'the world") sanction healthcare/pharma exports from Asia ? "The West" in denial of a worsening pandemic but also blind for the fact that NATO expansion is the problem (LenIN, StalIN, PutIN...all ending with "IN"...stopping western interventions/wars). We need lots of medical gear...this pandemic is getting worse... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/preprint-identification-of-a-deltacron-ay-4-ba-1-cluster-in-southern-france/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/preprint-identification-of-a-deltacron-ay-4-ba-1-cluster-in-southern-france/ ; “Structural analysis of the recombinant spike suggested its hybrid content could optimize viral binding to the host cell membrane” Here were report three infections in southern France with a Delta 21J/AY.4-Omicron 21K/BA.1 Deltamicron* recombinant. The hybrid genome harbors signature mutations of the two lineages, supported by a mean sequencing depth of 1,163-1,421 reads and mean nucleotide diversity of 0.1-0.6%. It is composed of the near full-length spike gene (from codons 156-179) of an Omicron 21K/BA.1 variant in a Delta 21J/AY.4 lineage backbone. It is similar to those reported for 15 other patients sampled since January 2022 in Europe. Importantly, we cultured an isolate of this recombinant and sequenced its genome. It was observed by scanning electron microscopy. As it is misidentified with current variant screening qPCR, we designed and implemented for routine diagnosis a specific duplex qPCR. Finally, structural analysis of the recombinant spike suggested its hybrid content could optimize viral binding to the host cell membrane. These findings prompt further studies of the virological, epidemiological, and clinical features of this recombinant. Preprint: Culture and identification of a Deltamicron SARS-CoV-2 in a three cases cluster in southern France * The author refers to Deltacron as “Deltamicron” is this preprint [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/ba-2-new-subvariants-continues-with-more-surges-till-next-few-lethal-variants-debut-in-mid-spring-ba-2-2-designated-as-new-name-for-hong-kong-s-ba-2-s[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/ba-2-new-subvariants-continues-with-more-surges-till-next-few-lethal-variants-debut-in-mid-spring-ba-2-2-designated-as-new-name-for-hong-kong-s-ba-2-s ubvariant; BA.2 subvariants are not mild...by sticking to "death within 28 days after a positive test" we simply miss a lot of the damage...Infections showing up all over the body make it harder to link them with CoViD (DJ-Also vaccines may do long term damage...are a medical intervention. NOT risk-free ! However if I "old" can get another booster I may go for it...) [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues ; Several BA.1 stories, BA.1.17, another BA.1 subvariant outcompeting BA.1.1 but not (yet) BA.2, BA.2-BA.1.1 recombination... DJ With this extreme high level of spread of BA-Omicron subvariants there must be lots of mutations/recombinations...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports still missing a.o. BA.1.16, BA.1.17, BA.2.1, BA.2.2 possibly (SA) BA.4..... [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; reported global cases 1,799,907 trend +7% (!), deaths as far as being reported 6.687 trend still -12%.... Oceania cases +17%, deaths -15%, Asia cases +14%, deaths +2%, Europe cases +7%, deaths -14%...South America cases/deaths both -8% (however Brazil +6%, French Guiana +86%)...Africa and North America may not be doing a realistic level of testing/reporting...Yesterday USA reported just over 38,000 new cases (#13 in highest numbers)...totally unrealistic...[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=USA[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=USA latest info from march 1, BA.2 then at only 1%... The US idea/strategy again-no testing is no cases ???? Highest new cases has at #1 South Korea reporting 327,532 new cases, +55%, 206 deaths +78% #2 Germany 300,270-trend +18%, 154 deaths +2% #3 Vietnam 160,676-trend +45%, 71 deaths -8% #4 France 74,818-trend +12%, 107 deaths -20% #5 NL !!!! 74,518-trend +78%, 41 deaths +48% so NL would have more cases then the UK, US, India, Brazil ???? [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/11/outbreak-team-meeting-whether-relax-covid-rules[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/11/outbreak-team-meeting-whether-relax-covid-rules ; According to insiders, the Cabinet wants to scrap most remaining measures on March 23.DJ-The article claims there may remain masks in public transport...but now even that idea is dropped...We had more positive tests in 2022 then in ALL of 2021, 2020 but give up even simple NPI.... Insanity is the new normal ! As I look we are at 6,051,398 CoViD deaths being reported-so 2022 did see a total of (5,465,785 per january 1) around 600,000 CoViD deaths...all of 2020 did see less then 2 million CoViD deaths being reported....On this basis we will again see 3 million + CoViD deaths-reported-this year... DJ Vaccines matters...but do NOT stop this pandemic...worse high spread in vaccinated hosts will increase immunity evasion...Vaccines will be able to offer less and less protection....Even more worse-spread in non-human hosts-most of it uncontrolled-will result in even more new variants....This pandemic is getting worse !!! Gabriel Hébert-Mild™ โฅ@Gab_H_R·12h SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance enables the identification of Delta/Omicron co-infections in Argentina โ ๏ธ Link;[url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.08.22270920v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.08.22270920v1 DJ-Again ! Some Delta variants are still around...not stopped/slowed down by Omicron but may mix/co-exist...co-infect....people catching BOTH Delta and Omicron sub-variants... [url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-11/COVID-19-pandemic-s-true-death-toll-is-3-times-the-official-number--18i0jUviB9u/index.html[/url] or https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-11/COVID-19-pandemic-s-true-death-toll-is-3-times-the-official-number--18i0jUviB9u/index.html ; Governments have been grossly underreporting the number of COVID-19 pandemic deaths and the actual count could be more than three times official estimates, exposing major gaps in health reporting systems, a new study says. According to the official death figures, the virus had claimed 5.9 million lives by the end of 2021. But an analysis by a team of researchers reveals that the actual figures could be more than 18.2 million – roughly three times the population of Singapore. The study, the first peer-reviewed estimate on excess COVID-19 deaths, published in The Lancet on Friday, calculated the death figures using data from 191 countries and territories between January 1, 2020, and December 31, 2021. (from China) DJ-I think around 20 million CoViD deaths so far may be a "low" number...India may have over 5 million deaths...Africa, South America must have millions...lots of rich countries did exclude some groups (old people died from "old age" not from CoViD...) ...some other estimates get closer to 40 million pandemic deaths... Here in NL-but also other places-flu also showing up...very late...may stay limited. But may mix with CoViD (specially in children !) That is it for today...another very dry sunny day....March in NL this year may be record breaking sunny, drought may start to become a problem as well.... Stay safe & sane ! |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 11 2022 at 5:17am |
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DJ-Let me react on the "full of wishfull thinking-pseudo science" in [url]https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/03/new-covid-variant-mitigation/626980/[/url] or https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/03/new-covid-variant-mitigation/626980/ ; 1-Why would it be one new variant...pattern more and more is there is no longer a dominant variant...but several (sub)variants, recombinations etc... 2-Major development more and more may shift towards non-human hosts. Jumping from species to species...most likely Omicron allready did see mice involved... 3-The article still claim there is "a lot of testing"...certainly for the US testing/reporting seems to be gone....so most of the spread will be under the radar... 4-Somehow people do not want to realize there could be a "major mass killer" possible...somehow out of the way "some" choose to think...Why ? The plague in 14th century Europe killed 100% in some area's. Europeans moving into the America's did spread disease killing up to 90% of the "Indians"....Certainly with massive spread in non human hosts a virus may find ways to "kill/end some species"...we may not like the idea...but that does not change that fact... An asteroide could end Earth...chances of a virus killing all/most people may be larger... Ignoring risks is increasing risks.... The "worst possible scenario" may not be the MOST likely but still could be a real risk...closing your eyes, denial (now the "strategy") again worsens this pandemic ! [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/lancet-18-million-dead-from-the-sars-cov-2-pandemic/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/lancet-18-million-dead-from-the-sars-cov-2-pandemic/ ; Although reported COVID-19 deaths between Jan 1, 2020, and Dec 31, 2021, totalled 5·94 million worldwide, we estimate that 18·2 million people died worldwide because of the COVID-19 pandemic (as measured by excess mortality) over that period. Lancet: Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21 DJ [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/deaths/covid-19-six-million-deaths-recorded-in-just-over-two-years-1-prediction/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/deaths/covid-19-six-million-deaths-recorded-in-just-over-two-years-1-prediction/ ; Prediction: If the daily limitations given above are a constant, then global deaths from Covid-19 will continue to occur at about 3 million a year whatever we do. In March 2023, the death toll will be 9 million. Even this may be far to optimistic....vaccines did-at least for now-limit the number of deaths...but decrease of protection will result in more deaths.... We are NOT taking this pandemic serious enough.... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 11 2022 at 10:58pm |
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DJ, Maybe major news at [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues NINE !!!! Recombinations of BA.1/BA.2 subtypes, Deltacron etc...(posted by just two writers...Issues 463-471). What could it mean ? Again, the idea of "one dominant variant" may be outdated...Several "Omicron" subvariants, even some Delta-subtypes, recombinations of Delta and Omicron...may make it much harder to get a picture of this pandemic. [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/02/articles/animals/other-animals/are-deer-strains-of-sars-cov-2-emerging/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/02/articles/animals/other-animals/are-deer-strains-of-sars-cov-2-emerging/ ; Humans have done an effective job of infecting a wide variety of animal species with this primarily-human virus. Fortunately, thus far these infections usually die out rapidly in that animal or group of animals (mink being a notable exception). In that scenario, the broader implications of spillover into animals are limited, because there’s not enough long-term transmission for animals to become true reservoirs or for new variants to emerge. Also [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/02/articles/animals/cats/isolation-of-sars-cov-2-exposed-animals-in-animal-shelters/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/02/articles/animals/cats/isolation-of-sars-cov-2-exposed-animals-in-animal-shelters/ DJ-A study did link mice with Omicron...we know minks can get & spread CoViD also into humans (cluster 5-Denmark)...But Worms and Germsblog also keeps repeating there is "limited testing for CoViD in non human hosts"...If farm animals would test positive the farm may go bankrupt...If wild animals tested positive what would be the point of hunting...There was also a story on New York City rats having their own type(s) of CoViD.... DJ-My point is we have not even a basic idea how widespread CoViD is in non-human hosts...Recombinations/mutations showing up most often will be from human infections...but the chance of non-human variants showing up -I think-is growing by the hour.... -[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ statistics... US reporting under 40,000 new cases...only hospital tested cases being reported from the US ???? UK almost 73,000 cases...[url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time UK cases +43%....do all statistics point to the same numbers ? [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/11/covid-hospital-total-continues-upward-climb-infections-still-high[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/11/covid-hospital-total-continues-upward-climb-infections-still-high ; Hospitals in the Netherlands were treating 1,663 people with Covid-19 on Friday afternoon, the highest total in over nine weeks. That figure rose by five since Thursday, the sixth straight increase after taking into account new admissions, discharges, and deaths. The hospital total jumped by 20 percent in a week. A similar rise would push the patient total towards 2,000. Despite the rising patient figures, the number of people with Covid-19 in intensive care remained low at 160, the same as a day earlier. That total has held between 145 and 180 for three weeks, and has stayed below 200 for over a month. The regular care total rose by five to 1,503, the highest it has been since December 24. DJ....One could claim-for now-most new cases should stay mild. But that has to exclude Long CoViD....not even well defined... [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/thailand-official-fake-covid-19-news-officials-say-only-24,592-new-covid-19-cases-and-68-covid-19-deaths-in-last-24-hours-death-reporting-to-change[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/thailand-official-fake-covid-19-news-officials-say-only-24,592-new-covid-19-cases-and-68-covid-19-deaths-in-last-24-hours-death-reporting-to-change and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china-shanghai-schools-closed-after-covid-outbreak/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/china-shanghai-schools-closed-after-covid-outbreak/ DJ-The epicenter of the present pandemic seems to be in East Asia. South Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Malaysia all now reporting high numbers. Hong Kong in crisis, China facing the most serious pandemic problems since the start of this pandemic. Asia cases +10%, deaths still -4%. Brazil cases +9%, Bolivia cases +53%...imported from Europe, Africa ??? Our report of SARS-CoV-2 in pet hamsters in published by #Lancet now. Key findings๏ผ 1. The diversity of delta virus in hamsters is more diverse than expected. It might circulate in hamsters for a few months - This work has the following implication: 1. Hamsters can be infected by SASR-CoV-2 in real life settings 2. Hamster can be a 2nd reservoir for SARS-CoV-2 3. The virus in hamster might pose human health risk 4. Animal trade might facilitate SARS-CoV-2 spreading DJ, Mink as a first reservoir for SARS-CoV-2 ? Some deer a third reservoir ? I spoke with about a new preprint comparing survival of Omicron vs. ancestral strain on surfaces. TLDR Omicron is more stable (probably in aerosols too, may contribute to greater transmissibility, my graph of their data  ) /1See also [url]https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1502378512753307649/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1502378512753307649/photo/1 DJ-Handhygiene may now be more important-but less done...also masks could limit risks... Two years into this pandemic, deeply disturbing inequality persists. Covid booster rate in NYC: * Asian: 57% * Native Am: 55% * White: 37% * Latino: 25% * Black: 24% We can’t continue to accept this. We must do much more to close these gaps. and; Bodies next to patients on a ward at Hong Kong’s Queen Elizabeth Hospital. 2 years into the pandemic. We don’t want to learn. DJ; By NPI, vaccines we managed to limit the number of people dying in this pandemic-a realistic global number may between 20 and 40 million so far...If we give up NPI, vaccines with all kind of variants spreading "excess deaths" still may go up...We will learn the hard way in what groups; young children, the old, the most social active ? But again-the present approach-as if the "pandemic is over" is insane... End of part 1...maybe find time/courage later on... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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george99
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Joined: April 13 2020 Status: Offline Points: 285 |
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Posted: March 12 2022 at 3:32am |
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yep worldwide cases are up...in fact they were never really down...au and nz are showing case increases...in the us hospitalizations are rising..and after two years the country is opening...the reporting has almost stopped...but...nothing anybody did seems to have made a difference anyway...right now the west is moving on...so we have had plague...now war..and famine is just around the corner...those four horsemen have been very busy |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 12 2022 at 10:47pm |
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[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/03/methane-rise-is-accelerating.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/03/methane-rise-is-accelerating.html ;The danger is that high greenhouse gas levels could combine to push the carbon dioxide equivalent (COโe) level over the 1200 ppm clouds tipping point in one spot, causing low-altitude clouds in various neighboring areas to break up, propagating break-up of clouds in further areas, as discussed at the clouds feedback page. [url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html ; The clouds feedback refers to disappearance of the lower clouds, more specifically the stratocumulus decks. Stratus cloud decks cover about 20% of subtropical oceans and are prevalent in the eastern portions of those oceans—for example, off the coasts of California or Peru. The clouds cool and shade Earth as they reflect the sunlight that hits them back into space. Tapio Schneider et al. calculated that these clouds begin to break up when COโe levels rise above the tipping point of 1,200 ppm. DJ, Climate change, wars, pandemics can be related to an economy that does not accept borders....There are (safety)limits ! Denial, ignoring limits is self destructive... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-wakes-up-to-a-new-covid-wave-and-russian-style-information-blackouts/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-wakes-up-to-a-new-covid-wave-and-russian-style-information-blackouts/ ; just two and half weeks since Boris Johnson announced to the UK Houses of Parliament that Britain would be dropping almost all Covid restrictions, the virus has bounced back, and the UK is facing yet another fresh wave of disease and death. But Covid figures from other leading indicators of prevalence in Britain show that the new wave is on an entirely different scale to the government’s wishful thinking: The Office of National Statistics estimated on the 11th March that the one person in every twenty five is infected with the virus in England, and one in eighteen are infected in Scotland.
ONS latest Covid trends report
The ZOE app is currently showing around 200,000 new Covid cases a day, far higher than the government’s figure, with over 2.25 million people reporting symptomatic Covid. ZOE’s inability to correctly parrot official government figures is probably the reason that its funding has just been axed by the British government Finally, we have yet to see an explanation from the government as to why large areas of the South West of Britain seem to have stopped reporting genome sequences recently, something first pointed out by @unusual_times on Twitter. Could the blacked-out areas be affected by Omicron BA.2 with the S:I1221T mutation, or a Deltacron outbreak? We know that hundreds of cases BA.2/S:I1221T (the same mutation causing horrendous problems in Hong Kong) have been reported in Britain, but we don’t know what areas of the country they are in. What we do know, though, is that Plymouth’s Derriford hospital, which covers that area, has been under unusual strain recently… Another alternative, of course, is that there could be an entirely new British variant spreading in the South West of England, and the UK government are simply waiting for it to be “discovered” in a third country before announcing the cases in Britain, just as happened with the Omicron variant. With the quantity and quality of UK Covid data now drying up, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to interpret what is going on in that country, and to accurately predict changes in trends. There are no benefits to their censorship strategy whatsoever. Speculation and rumour will quickly fill the vacuum left by scientific facts. DJ, Special thanks to ; Thanks for all your letters of support! We are not giving up! One reason we at ZOE have been shut down is seen in this graph - where the true infections are five times more than the official dashboard and going up fast- thanks 4 logging! defunding science for political reasons is ending civilization...return to the dark ages...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ US reported 12,261 new cases and 460 deaths...UK simply stopped reporting during the weekend... The insane duo biden-bojo rather start wars.... [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-new-super-recombinant-ba-2-plus-ba-1-1-variant-characterized-by-orf1a-r1628c-and-orf1b-q866r-mutations-has-emerged-in-belgium-more-to-come[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-new-super-recombinant-ba-2-plus-ba-1-1-variant-characterized-by-orf1a-r1628c-and-orf1b-q866r-mutations-has-emerged-in-belgium-more-to-come A look at the top 5 for new cases; #1 South Korea, 383,651 new cases-weekly trend +44%, 269 deaths, +50% #2 Vietnam, 168,719 new cases +35%, 62 deaths -17% #3 Germany, 145,267 new cases +20%, 166 deaths +1% #4 France, 72,443 new cases +21%, 51 deaths -29% #5 Netherlands, 60,043 new cases +42%, 11 deaths +44% DJ If NL ends up in a global top 5-with a population of 17,5 million then the world has a testing/reporting problem....Japan at #6, Hong Kong #12, Malaysia #13, Thailand #14, Indonesia #19, Singapore #20 indicating most of the pandemic(testing) now is in East Asia... Global cases +6%, deaths -16% (UK, US not reporting realistic numbers...). By now 71 countries reporting an increase of cases, 40 countries report increase of deaths... Nigeria cases +125% among other African countries showing an increase. But also Brazil cases +10%. Pretending its gone doesn't actually make it go away. It's like closing your own eyes so the monster won't see you. DJ, Cases going up in some Latin American, African, Asia, European countries most likely indicate new (sub)variants are spreading. We may not have detected most of them... Again, the pandemic is getting worse...not better ! End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 12 2022 at 11:30pm |
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part 2, a look at twitter; It seems reasonable to conclude that a solid antibody threshold of protection (90% at least) vs. #Delta infection is >3000 BAU/ml, while vs. #Omicron infection is >7000 BAU/ml. That's a start in determining what does actually "up to date" means for keeping us safe. - · Omicron infections occurred in people whose total antibody concentration was less than or equal to 6967 BAU/ml. 90% of the Delta infections involved people with binding antibody concentrations below 2905 BAU/ml _ H/T โฆ@Fraslinโฉ โฆ@FanCpixieโฉ https://journalofinfection.com/article/S0163-4453(22)00060-3/fulltext DJ, So you need a (much) higher level of antibodies to be protected against "Omicron"...vaccine protection may not last very long on a level offering enough protection...Then the next question could be...do we need that protection ? It is 'mild" ? Problem with that; -We are getting less and less realistic statistics...if you do not test people ending up in hospital, dying how can you tell how "mild" "Omicron" is... -"Omicron" now may mean over 20 sub-variants of "BA"...BA.2 most likely worse then BA.1...but lots of recombinations reported at [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues and we are missing-most likely-HUNDREDS !!!!-of sub-variants of Omicron !!! -A.o. South Africa may indicate a lot of damage from Omicron may show up much later-all over the body...often not even seen as related to Omicron... -Long CoViD is a fast growing major problem... [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=USA[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=USA BA.2 in US now at 2% of all sequences in last 60 days. Latest info from march 3...BA.2 will be dominant in the US end of this month... Yes Tom there were 2 (and so far only 2) sequences from Sweden that look like recombinants between AY.98 and BA.2. There could have been more I guess? but most regions where there were Delt/BA.2 co-circulation don't have the same level of surveillance like UK and Denmark do. DJ, If you simply stop testing/reporting you also stop sequencing...you simply have NO idea !!! of "what will be hitting you"! We allready see CoViD/SARS-2 spreading in non-human hosts (minks, hamsters, deer). From time to time discovering a new "spread-event" like in New York City sewage rats...So far we did see limited spread-as far as there was any study on it-but it will come back to humans...Omicron BA.1 most likely was related to mice... Shanghai is really on edge right now over accelerating Covid cases; I haven’t seen everyone this nervous since February 2020… a lot of rumors are swirling amidst the confirmed news that schools are now closed, flights are being diverted, and public events are getting canceled - Mainland China reports 3,393 new coronavirus cases, just below the all-time high in February 2020 "Zero CoViD" strategy having a hard time. I’m tired of us being taken off guard despite all the evidence We should expect new waves. And if they don’t come, GREAT! But what we should not do is expect the pandemic is over. That would be foolish. But it is the direction we are generally going. DJ; Some non-sience widespread; -it is running out of variants -it has to become milder...flu/cold like -if we all have had it we can not get it again...herd/group immunity... this is "hopium" not science... DJ-I am not an expert, not neutral, objective...just trying to follow the "story" and making my mind up... -Number of infections did grow/go exponential.. -must result in lots of mutations... -increasing the risk of recombination with older variants... -lots of people may still carry those older variants...simply not know it...only good-blood-testing all over the body may detect it... This leaves me with a "helicopterview" of the pandemic only widening..."Maybe the bushfire now went to the top of the trees-it will go down again"...This pandemic for now may look "mild"...but the virus most likely could be doing most of its spread by now in non-human hosts....It is becoming a "mega mix" of all kinds of (sub)variants, recombinations...less and less one global dominant variant... Still "pseudo sience" is asking "will there be a next variant"...while we are allready in the middle of possible loads of variants... Another way of saying it; "Yes it is nice it stopped raining...but we are sitting on the top of a collapsing building with water up till the horizon".... Maybe another look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;The world had 290 million positive tests-cases at the start of 2022...we are now moving towards 460 million "cases" with testing decreasing...so 2022 did see around 170 million new cases and it is not even mid-March...There may be statistics somewhere on non-human cases... Maybe another news-item can/should be related; "bird-flu" a lot of it H5N1...how can it be that those numbers now also "explode" ? Is it because we now do more testing on sick/death birds ? It could be a (small) part of the story...but the picture I have is "bird-flu" in 2022 also "going wild".... [url]https://finance.yahoo.com/news/massive-bird-flu-outbreak-could-153426477.html[/url] or https://finance.yahoo.com/news/massive-bird-flu-outbreak-could-153426477.html ; Israel’s National Security Council has assumed control of a massive bird flu outbreak in the Galilee, which scientists warn could become a “mass disaster” for humans. Over half a billion migrating birds pass through the area every year, heading for warm African winters or balmy European summers, making this a catastrophic location for a major bird flu outbreak—right at the nexus of global avian travel. The virus can be deadly if it infects people. The World Health Organization says more than half of the confirmed 863 human cases it has tracked since 2003 proved fatal. Most strains or variants of avian flu, H5N1, are relatively difficult to transmit to people. DJ Was [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_swine_fever_virus#2018-2020_African_swine_fever_panzootic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_swine_fever_virus#2018-2020_African_swine_fever_panzootic ;In August 2018, China reported the first African swine fever outbreak in Liaoning province, which was also the first reported case in East Asia.[64] By September 1, 2018, the country had culled more than 38,000 hogs.[65] Since the week of September 10, 2018, China has blocked transports of live pigs and pig products in a large part of the country[66] to avoid spread beyond the 6 provinces where the virus was then confirmed. By the end of 2018, the outbreaks had been reported in 23 provinces and municipalities across China.[67] On April 25, 2019, the virus was reported to have spread to every region of China, as well as parts of Southeast Asia, including Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam.[68] The Chinese pig population was reported to have declined by almost 100 million compared with the previous year, driving European pork prices to reach a six-year high.[69] somehow related to the present CoViD-19 pandemic ? Maybe via Corona-viral infections unnoticed in pigs, showing to be a major problem for humans. "We" may simply have ignored the corona-virus in pigs because we were watching other virusses making pigs ill... Could "bird flu" cases-so far most in birds-go up because we miss corona viral spread in birds...making those birds more vulnerable for H5N1, H7N9 etc...? Also increasing risks for a next pandemic-on top of CoViD-for humans ? "People who did not secrete blood group A and/or B antigens in their saliva (and lungs/intestines, etc.) were significantly less likely to develop Covid-19. So these are people who have blood group O and/or are FUT2 non-secretors. (And for me both.  )"A link to blood-type, blood group?  MAIL DELIVERY OUTBREAK—China’s CDC reports an outbreak of #Omicron “likely caused” by an international postal letter. Genetically distinct from other cases, but linked to SE Asia & N America. If true—this is the first outbreak cluster spread such way. https://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi/10.46234/ccdcw2022.031New ways of spread ? (China did claim earlier some "spread by mail"...Omicron may survive longer on surfaces...Also much more people/hosts spreading the virus). Over a week of growth in global total number of reported cases. Plot is log so multiplicative growth is a straight line Second plot is intriguing. An explanation would be speculative. See also [url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1502713196146307081/photo/2[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1502713196146307081/photo/2 ....could the purple line be a long term trend for CoViD infections ? Could we end up with millions of daily cases as a "new normal" allready in 2023 ? I often wonder if people know the full list of things that makes someone at risk of severe outcomes from COVID. I often wonder if the CDC's message that 90% of the country can take off their masks, oversimplifies that about 60% of people are at risk of severe outcomes. End of part 2... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 14 2022 at 11:03pm |
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DJ, I use [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ more or less as the basis for my writing...but if countries produce "unrealistic numbers" it is getting harder to get some perspective on this pandemic. Okay, weekend numbers but US march 14 with 17,267 new cases, 16,082 for march 13 only indicates US is not doing much testing and reporting... India....2,568 cases, the day before 2,503....So based on very unrealistic numbers at least 1,2 million-1,4 million cases still being reported worldwide...global trend +7% for cases... [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-the-dangerous-covid-19-phase-has-started-while-those-controlling-the-covid-19-narratives-are-trying-to-create-news-blackouts[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-the-dangerous-covid-19-phase-has-started-while-those-controlling-the-covid-19-narratives-are-trying-to-create-news-blackouts linking it to [url]https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(2102796-3/fulltext[/url] or https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(2102796-3/fulltext ; By Dec 31, 2021, global reported deaths due to COVID-19 reached 5·94 million, but the estimated number of excess deaths was nearly 3·07-times (95% UI 2·88–3·30) greater, reaching 18·2 million (17·1–19·6). The global all-age rate of excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic was 120·3 deaths (113·1–129·3) per 100 000 of the population. The table provides summary statistics for each country and territory, including reported deaths due to COVID-19, estimated excess deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the ratio of the two, and reported and excess all-age COVID-19 mortality rates. The magnitude of the excess mortality burden has varied substantially between countries. The highest estimated excess mortality rate due to COVID-19 was 734·9 deaths (95% UI 594·1–879·2) per 100 000 of the population in Bolivia (compared with the global rate of 120·3 [113·1–129·3]), whereas negative excess mortality rates were estimated in Iceland, Australia, Singapore, New Zealand, and Taiwan (province of China), representing a large range. Excess mortality rates exceeded 300 deaths per 100 000 in 21 countries. DJ So the Lancet calculates pandemic deaths at 18,2 million. Others come up with even much higher numbers...Thailand Medical News putting up several further links on how this pandemic now is out of control... South Korea, Vietnam but also Germany still reporting very high numbers...most other countries now in "full denial"...(With UK defunding a.o. ZOE tracker app...). [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/preliminary-studies-shows-that-emerging-ba-2-subvariants-unlike-omicron-attacks-lungs-aggressively,-not-easily-detectable--t-cells-offers-no-protectio[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/preliminary-studies-shows-that-emerging-ba-2-subvariants-unlike-omicron-attacks-lungs-aggressively,-not-easily-detectable--t-cells-offers-no-protectio n! and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/vaccine/pfizer-biontech/pfizer-and-moderna-fourth-shot-of-covid-vaccine-on-the-way/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/vaccine/pfizer-biontech/pfizer-and-moderna-fourth-shot-of-covid-vaccine-on-the-way/ ; A fourth dose of Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine will be necessary in order to maintain manageable levels of hospitalizations and mild infections, CEO Albert Bourla said yesterday. DJ, "Living with the virus is living with vaccinations against it"....However several problems; -A large part of the global population still did not get a chance for a first vaccine.. -Vaccine protection most likely will become less and less.... -People will get frustrated when they see the strategy (or lack of it) is not working... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/vaccine/animal-vaccines-made-with-self-spreading-viruses/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/vaccine/animal-vaccines-made-with-self-spreading-viruses/; Self-spreading virus vaccines for animals are being researched in Europe and the US. “In Spain scientists are currently vaccinating pigs with self-spreading viruses (that have not been modified in a laboratory) against African swine fever as part of contained experiments. In the U.S., a four-year research project has just ended that sought to mathematically identify strategies for deploying self-spreading vaccines. The U.S. Department of Defense’s research agency, DARPA, is also funding experimentation to determine if lab-modified self-spreading animal vaccines can prevent the spillover of pathogens to U.S. military personnel in areas where they operate.” Max Planck Institute: Animal vaccines with self-spreading viruses
What could possibly go right with this plan? DJ; I can not help noticing a tendency for authoritarianism. Unwelcome science getting defunded, mandatory vaccinations that may become less and less effective...NPI being lifted because the "official story" is "it is endemic, mild, have to live with it".... Mild Decerebration   Brain functional connectivity alterations associated with neuropsychological post-COVID syndrome  Covid infection causes long-term memory and executive dysfunctions related to largescale functional brain connectivity alterationsDJ-link [url]https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1411239/v1[/url] or https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1411239/v1 ; The severity of the infection in the acute phase is a predictor of neuropsychological post-COVID syndrome. SARS-CoV-2 infection causes long-term memory and executive dysfunctions, related to largescale functional brain connectivity alterations. or Some people who wanted to fool the public would ask, "What virus ever becomes worse with reinfections?" Let me introduce you to SARS Cov 2, a virus which harms your immune system THAT will make for worse reinfections People have died from reinfections DJ-link [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-022-00919-x#Sec2[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-022-00919-x#Sec2 "F.ck science" now also dominant in this pandemic...but also "a new normal" in climate change, international relations...with (some) governments getting very anti-democratic in pushing their "reality".... Hong Kong doesn’t just look grim when compared to its Asia-Pacific peers. In March 2020 we saw awful pictures from northern Italy. Last winter, UK & Portugal saw huge mortality spikes, and last summer it was Namibia, but Hong Kong has now set a new global record for daily deaths So...it is getting worse not better..."Politics" more and more in the way of solving problems, becoming a problem in itself... End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 14 2022 at 11:50pm |
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part 2, what to expect; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/ NL weekly trend for deaths +74%; 58 last week, 101 last 7 days...with a lot of 'indirect deaths" being missed...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/14/outbreak-team-keep-partial-work-home-testing-access-can-ended[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/14/outbreak-team-keep-partial-work-home-testing-access-can-ended ...discussion on masks in public transport... A total of 38 countries now reporting an increase of deaths, 74 countries reporting an increase of cases...in North America Cuba cases =7%, Canada -9%, USA -25%, Mexico -29%...still BA.2 (sub-types) are expected to increase/become dominant also in North America...limited vaccinations may result in more deaths...another wave again... [url]https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/03/15/678576/China-reports-sharp-rise-in-COVID-cases[/url] or https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2022/03/15/678576/China-reports-sharp-rise-in-COVID-cases ; China reported 5,280 new Covid-19 cases on Tuesday, more than double the previous day's tally and the highest daily count since the start of the pandemic. The northeastern province of Jilin was worst hit, accounting for more than 3,000 cases, according to the National Health Commission. Since the Coronavirus first emerged in the central city of Wuhan in late 2019, China had successfully suppressed large-scale outbreaks through its strict "zero-Covid" strategy, which involved hard lockdowns that confined huge sections of the population to their homes. But Tuesday was the sixth day in a row that more than 1,000 new cases were recorded in the world's second-biggest economy. At least 11 cities and counties nationwide have been locked down because of the latest surge, including the southern tech hub of Shenzhen, home to 17 million people. Hong Kong stocks plunged by more than three per cent Tuesday, extending the previous day's tech-fuelled rout. Dozens of domestic flights at airports in Beijing and Shanghai were cancelled Tuesday morning, flight tracking data showed. An outbreak at Volkswagen Group factories in the Jilin city of Changchun also prompted three sites to shut Monday for at least three days, according to a spokesman. Various other cities including Shanghai have sealed off certain neighborhoods and buildings, as authorities have sought to minimize disruption to daily life. But health officials have warned tighter restrictions could be on the way. DJ, China cases +205%...5,707 last 7 days, 1,869 the week before...as far as being reported. China did use the definition for a case as a person testing positive WITH symptoms...so the positive tested numbers will be much higher...no CoViD-deaths in China...but also there China "may have its own definition".... -Germany [url]https://raw.githubusercontent.com/lenaschimmel/desh-data/main/plots/omicron_N_linear.png[/url] or https://raw.githubusercontent.com/lenaschimmel/desh-data/main/plots/omicron_N_linear.png BA.2 now getting dominant, "unclear/unklar" mixing with some Delta and BA.3 at very low levels...still relevant because new major variants could be somewhere in those "unclear" subtyoes... German cases last 7 days 1,391,001 trend +23%...1,529 deaths, trend +20%...[url]https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-germany-relaxes-covid-measures-even-as-risks-remain/a-60806825[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/opinion-germany-relaxes-covid-measures-even-as-risks-remain/a-60806825 ;The government wants to lift virtually all restrictions by March 20, despite high infection numbers. That's why the debate about a vaccination mandate will now be crucial, says DW's Jens Thurau. -South Korea, cases last 7 days 2,199,245, 1,499 deaths-trend for both +44%...[url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220315002552320?section=national/national[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220315002552320?section=national/national ; SEOUL, March 15 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's new daily COVID-19 cases stayed above 300,000 for four straight days Tuesday as the country battles through the worst virus wave yet, sparked by the highly transmissible omicron variant. The country added 362,338 new COVID-19 infections, mostly locally transmitted, putting the total caseload at 7,228,550, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) said. Tuesday's tally marks the second-highest daily count after the all-time high of 383,664 reported Saturday. It's also a big jump from the previous day's 309,780. The daily counts tend to fall on Mondays due to fewer tests on the weekend before rising sharply toward the end of the week. The death toll from COVID-19 hit a record high of 293, up 93 from Monday, with the total at 10,888. The fatality rate came to 0.15 percent. The number of critically ill patients also reached an all-time high of 1,196, up 38 from the previous day. South Korea has seen a spike in the COVID-19 caseload since the beginning of this year, with the numbers surging from four digits to six digits in about three weeks last month. DJ...so "this is the new normal" ????? No ! US, UK, a.o. may simply stop reporting or only report hospital cases... To put the countries with high cases in perspective; Denmark (just north of Germany) cases -26% -from over 105,000 to over 77,000 in the last 7 days...DK deaths -1% (from 293 to 291 last 7 days on a population of just over 5,8 million.) Israel cases -3%, deaths still -37%...[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-combo-covid-strain-deltacron-detected-in-israel-report-says/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-combo-covid-strain-deltacron-detected-in-israel-report-says/ ; Israel has detected cases of a new COVID variant that is a hybrid of Delta and Omicron, according to national broadcaster Kan. The network reported on Monday night that the variant surfaced in swab samples that were sequenced in labs. The Hebrew-language report has not been confirmed by the Health Ministry. According to Kan, a limited number of cases have been detected among people who returned from Europe, and there is no community spread. DJ...point may be "Deltacron going for free travel"; new variants showing up... [url]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-14/are-covid-cases-going-back-up-sewer-data-has-potential-warning[/url] or https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-14/are-covid-cases-going-back-up-sewer-data-has-potential-warning ; A wastewater network that monitors for Covid-19 trends is warning that cases are once again rising in many parts of the U.S., according to an analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data by Bloomberg. More than a third of the CDC’s wastewater sample sites across the U.S. showed rising Covid-19 trends in the period ending March 1 to March 10, though reported cases have stayed near a recent low. The number of sites with rising signals of Covid-19 cases is nearly twice what it was during the Feb. 1 to Feb. 10 period, when the wave of omicron-variant cases was fading rapidly. It’s not clear how many new infections the signs in the sewage represent and if they will turn into a new wave, or will be just a brief bump on the way down from the last one. In many parts of the country, people are returning back to offices and mask rules have been loosened — factors that can raise transmission. so "outlook not so good"... End of part 2 work in progres. |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 16 2022 at 12:53am |
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DJ, A lot of people "out-source thinking"; in history "the gods" via all kinds of "priests" did tell you what and how to think...Nowadays "leaders" use "media" for that goal...One of the messages is; "It is endemic", "mild", "we have to live with the virus", "no other options"....(Other message now spread by 'the media' is "Putin is bad"...earlier it was "China is bad", "Weapons of Mass Destruction" lies spread by the media were the basis for the 2003 Iraq-war killing over 1 million...In case you did forget...)... If you are still with me, welcome...I like to make my mind up the best I can using the info I can get (will put links to it...maybe I get it wrong..). I will never tell you what you should think...but please do think !!! I share with you my opinion and the basis for it... -[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ....DJ My opinion; US claiming 25,359 cases on march 15 is "unrealistic"...India would only have had 2,876 new cases....please...Global cases +6%...march 15 1,687,551 cases were reported...5,299 deaths-trend -19%...simply unrealistic...but "the best we have"... A top 5 for cases; #1 South Korea reporting 362,328 new cases,+48%, 293 deaths +44% #2 Germany 225,387 cases, +22%, 287 deaths -22% #3 Vietnam 175,480, +13% cases, 68 deaths -11% #4 France 116,618 , +27%, cases, 146 deaths -21% #5 Italy 85,288 cases, +35%, 180 deaths -19% NL at #6, would have more cases the UK, Brazil, Austria or Russia (#10)...Japan #11, Hong Kong #13, Malaysia #15...US would be at #16 for cases...not realistic ! There are 75 countries reporting an increase of cases, (only) 33 reporting an increase of deaths...may indicate we are yet again at the beginning of another global wave... Europe cases +7%, deaths -22% Asia cases +10%, deaths -7% Africa cases -27%, deaths -44% Oceania cases +7%, deaths -31% North America cases -22%, deaths -24% South America cases -18%, deaths -21% DJ-One of the problems is "what is defined as a CoViD death"? Dying within 28 days after a positive test still seems to be a main criterium...with Omicron being much slower...linked to all kind of infections all over the body...we may simple be missing lots of CoViD (related) deaths... [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/university-of-iowa-researchers-discover-small-airways-disease-with-the-presence-of-air-trapping-is-a-long-lasting-sequelae-of-sars-cov-2-infection[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/university-of-iowa-researchers-discover-small-airways-disease-with-the-presence-of-air-trapping-is-a-long-lasting-sequelae-of-sars-cov-2-infection and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-study-shows-that-immune-cells-called-macrophages-show-altered-inflammatory-and-metabolic-expression-several-months-after-mild-covid-19[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-study-shows-that-immune-cells-called-macrophages-show-altered-inflammatory-and-metabolic-expression-several-months-after-mild-covid-19 Both underline Omicron may "look mild on the short term" , still may kill you on the longer term...But "longer term" is not in our "leaders' vocabulary...They only look for next elections, "perspectives", "hopium"... In Nature Reviews Immunology, Stanley Perlman argues "a 'normal' immune response often results in a transient disequilibrium of tissue homeostasis, and this is required for clearance of an infection but can contribute to disease," in respect to SARS1 link [url]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC7097326/[/url] or https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC7097326/ ; SARS is caused by a novel species of coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and is the most severe coronavirus-mediated human disease that has been described so far. On the basis of similarities with other coronavirus infections, SARS might, in part, be immune mediated. As discussed in this Review, studies of animals that are infected with other coronaviruses indicate that excessive and sometimes dysregulated responses by macrophages and other pro-inflammatory cells might be particularly important in the pathogenesis of disease that is caused by infection with these viruses. It is hoped that lessons from such studies will help us to understand more about the pathogenesis of SARS in humans and to prevent or control outbreaks of SARS in the future. DJ...Our "leaders" seem to know only one infectious disease; "the flu" (If you are lucky they also may know a "cold") so "CoViD is like a flu" (or the "wiser leaders" "CoViD may become like a cold"). Corona-virusses are not new...They are well known and may be very hard to get rid of...Immunity against corona-virus is different then against flu or a cold...(DJ-There is no "standard immunity...it is "action-reaction"...each kind of virus may result in its own immunity reaction...). Our immunity may worsen disease after a corona virus infection...(that is what I-DJ-make of it...not an expert at all...). Replying to Can someone please tell me why the idea of immune-mediated pathology is so taboo and controversial for SARS2? I know the answer It's because we're controlling SARS2 with propaganda, not medicine DJ-His words, my ideas... [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/15/covid-hospitalizations-rose-39-percent-last-week-infections-fall[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/15/covid-hospitalizations-rose-39-percent-last-week-infections-fall and [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/15/dutch-covid-hospital-total-hits-11-week-high-300-admitted-day[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/15/dutch-covid-hospital-total-hits-11-week-high-300-admitted-day resulting in [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/15/netherlands-drops-last-covid-rules-amid-hospitalization-rise[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/15/netherlands-drops-last-covid-rules-amid-hospitalization-rise DJ-What "our leaders" mean by saying "we have to live with it" may mean "we have to live with millions of people dying from CoViD each year"...A "new normal" decreasing life expectancy with years...But "our leaders" come up with "freedom" ....and most of us buy their insanity... BNO newsroom; Scotland reverses decision to drop mask mandate in certain public places due to rise in COVID cases DJ, Pandemic jojo-ing....There is no strategy, not even basic thinking....Like in climate change, wars...stupidity-based short term going for profits...This is the way "humans self-destruct"... End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 16 2022 at 10:37pm |
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DJ, getting a perspective takes time...so I was hoping to do a part 2 yesterday...ran out of time... Today I start in NL [url]https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/seasonal-flu-epidemic-in-netherlands[/url] or https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/seasonal-flu-epidemic-in-netherlands ; Last week, it seemed as though a flu epidemic might be starting. A clear increase in the number of influenza cases was already becoming apparent. This number continued rising rapidly last week. As a result, RIVM, Nivel and Erasmus MC have said that the seasonal flu epidemic has now started. The flu epidemic usually starts in December or January. Since the start of the ‘normal’ flu season in 2021, however, the flu virus has only been found very occasionally in the Netherlands. This infrequent occurrence is probably due to the coronavirus measures, which also prevent the flu virus from spreading. Now that the measures have been eased, people are having contact with others more often again. This also increases the risk of respiratory infections such as flu. and [url]https://www.nivel.nl/nl/nivel-zorgregistraties-eerste-lijn/actuele-weekcijfers-aandoeningen-surveillance[/url] or https://www.nivel.nl/nl/nivel-zorgregistraties-eerste-lijn/actuele-weekcijfers-aandoeningen-surveillance ;
DJ So A-H3N2 around 50% of flu cases in NL.... [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/472[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/472 ; Potential BA.1.1/BA.2 Recombinant in the Netherlands, with likely breakpoint at NSP13-15 (2 Seqs as of 2022-02-21) #472DJ...One of many recombinations...In Brazil, Israel a.o. there were cases of "Flurona"; a co-infection of CoViD and (most H3N2) flu...In NL hospitalcases for 50 y/o+ has been increasing. A CoViD-Flu co-infection can result in more severe disease. Since I am now writing on my country; [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/16/covid-hospital-total-rises-11th-straight-day-towards-2000[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/16/covid-hospital-total-rises-11th-straight-day-towards-2000 ; Hospitals in the Netherlands were treating 1,971 patients with Covid-19 on Wednesday afternoon. That was 19 more than on Tuesday, after accounting for new admissions, discharges, and deaths. It was the 11th straight day where the hospital total increased. During that period, the total increased by 44 percent. There were 161 patients in intensive care units, the second day in a row the ICU tally rose by five. The figure has held below 200 for exactly five weeks. The other 1,810 patients were in regular care wards, a net increase of 14. Combined, the patient total was 21 percent higher than a week ago. A similar increase would push the figure up towards 1,385. The average number of daily hospital admissions has been on the rise for about two weeks. Hospitals admitted 293 patients with Covid-19 between Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, including 20 sent to intensive care. On average, hospitals admitted 256 patients with the coronavirus disease each of the past seven days, up 36 percent in a week. The RIVM said that 60,291 patients tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus between Tuesday and Wednesday morning. That pushed the seven-day moving average down for the fifth straight time. The figure stood at 59,341, down 11 percent compared to last Wednesday. DJ Worldometer NL trend for cases now at -11% however deaths +96%....We did see 415,125 new cases in the last 7 days, the week before it was 465,507. Last week 52 deaths, last 7 days it did go to 102 (6 per million of population. [url]https://coronadashboard.government.nl/[/url] or https://coronadashboard.government.nl/ (in english) A look at [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD showing for the last 60 days BA.1.1 was 54%, BA.1 was 25% the now dominant BA.2 subvariant at 20%.... DJ, NL is not an island...If flu cases increase here most likely also flu numbers will go up in other parts of the globe (again). Since we did not have "normal fluseasons" for the last two years we could see flu becoming late but still bad...Certainly with all restrictions dropped the "Flurona" co-infection risks should be high... [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues is "full of warnings" on all kind of recombinations...sometimes high spread Omicron sub-variants picking up the "bad segments" of Delta... The pandemic is NOT over !!!! It may be getting (much) worse !!!! Omicron did manage to increase spread...if it now recombines with other variants (or co-infect with flu) we again face another major (global) health crisis... Since this was most about NL...music; Nether Lands-Donna Summer (she started her carreer here in NL) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ir85QHA5Mxo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ir85QHA5Mxo (Dan Fogelberg did the original)... End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 16 2022 at 11:00pm |
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part 2, [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/mcgill-university-researcher-detects-two-new-omicron-ba-1-1-subvariants-ba-1-1i-and-ba-1-1h-and-a-new-delta-subvariant-d1k-in-new-zealand[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/mcgill-university-researcher-detects-two-new-omicron-ba-1-1-subvariants-ba-1-1i-and-ba-1-1h-and-a-new-delta-subvariant-d1k-in-new-zealand [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/israel-new-ba-1-ba-2-recombinant-variant-discovered/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/israel-new-ba-1-ba-2-recombinant-variant-discovered/ DJ...."Omicron" could by now have "hundreds if not thousends" of subvariants, recombinations...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports only mentions 20 sub-variants of Omicron....I can imagine that if you would have to go for further selection on mutations the amount of numbers may get impossible... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/hong-kong/hong-kong-omicron-ba-2-with-si1221t-mutation-designated-ba-2-2/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/hong-kong/hong-kong-omicron-ba-2-with-si1221t-mutation-designated-ba-2-2/ the Hong Kong BA.2.2 subvariant among many others NOT in outbreak... With three Omicron-related recombinants getting assigned Pango lineages I'm going to write a thread covering:
- What are recombinants?
- Why are we seeing so many now?
- What exactly are the new lineages XD, XE and XF?
- How concerned should we be about them? DJ...some of the recombinations have Delta-parts....So what are the new recombinant lineages? They fall into 2 catagories: - Delta x BA.1 (unhelpfully refered to as Deltracron in the media... journalists please stop doing this!) - BA.1 x BA.2 - XD is the new name for the French Delta x BA.1 lineage. Sequenced and verified by and colleagues at Pasteur, first spotted by . It contains the Spike protein of BA.1 and the rest of the genome from Delta. It currently comprises several 10s of sequences. - XE is a large UK BA.1 x BA.2 lineage. Sequenced and verified by and , first identified by . It has the Spike and structural proteins from BA.2 but the 5' part of its genome from BA.1. It comprises several hundred sequences at present. - XF is a UK Delta x BA.1 lineage. Again sequenced and verified by and first identified by . It has the Spike and structural proteins from BA.1 but the 5' part of its genome from Delta. It comprises several tens of sequences currently. Trying to make sense...most likely just a tip of the iceberg...Because when testing goes down there are less samples to sequence...Also for CoViD-deaths the definition "dying from CoViD within 4 weeks of a positive test" with Omicron is "unrealistic".... DJ-What I make of recombinations is one may see them as "large mutations", the outcome may be a variant LESS able to do damage in most cases...So very likely a lot of them will go underected...However some may be "very much worse".... Another aspect has to be how infected people react to other diseases (flu, cold a.o.). One may have no or mild symptoms to start with but a coinfection with flu or a cold still resulting in more severe disease... DJ-Again, I am NOT an expert (not neutral, objective etc...) just trying to get a realistic view of this-in my opinion-far from over pandemic. When I now go to a supermarket (early-quiet-morning) I am the only one wearing a mask...self-scan check outs decrease further risks...But even in public transport, on planes, masks are history...If you wear one you will be "tolerated" (I am over 6 feet-they tolerate a lot from me ;-) )... Acting like this pandemic is over while it again is worsening is beyond what I can understand... End of part 2... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 16 2022 at 11:17pm |
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part 3 [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ now even more far from perfect...but we do not have a better indicator; Global (under)reported cases 1,853,982, +5%. 5,566 deaths reported trend -19%... A top 5 for cases; 1 South Korea 400,714 cases +41%,, 164 deaths +37% 2 Germany 275,807 cases,+30%, 298 deaths -15% 3 Vietnam 180,558 cases, +8%, 62 deaths -18% 4 France 108,832 cases, +33%, 173 deaths -17% 5 UK 91,345 cases,+37%, 153 deaths -2% Italy, NL, Australia, Austria and Japan make the rest of this top 10. At 13 the USA claiming just over 30,000 new cases -21%....India at 45 claiming only just over 2,500 new cases -39%.... Israel showing cases +17%, deaths -2%...all kinds of BA.2 subvariants must be "spreading" if not exploding around the globe...but most may be (still) missed..."mild" for now... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/israel-new-ba-1-ba-2-recombinant-variant-discovered/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/israel-new-ba-1-ba-2-recombinant-variant-discovered/ ; The Israeli Health Ministry has announced that two cases of a previously unknown recombinant SARS-CoV-2 variant have been discovered in Israel in recent days. The novel variant, a combination of Omicron’s dominant subvariant BA.1 and another subvariant, BA.2, causes light symptoms including low fever, muscle aches and headaches, and did not require special treatment. “This variant is still unknown around the world,” the Health Ministry said, adding that the cases were diagnosed in PCR tests taken from arriving Israeli passengers at Ben Gurion Airport. “We’ve seen several variants that have made this merge [between Omicron and BA.2] in the past few weeks, but they don’t reproduce at a fast pace,” said Dr. Oren Kobiler, a virologists from Tel Aviv University. In Cambodia [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/cambodia/cambodia-omicron-spreading-like-wildfire/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/cambodia/cambodia-omicron-spreading-like-wildfire/ ; Omicron is spreading like wildfire across Cambodia. “Before Omicron variant came into the country, we were confident of shifting the Covid-19 pandemic to endemic. We were almost there and now it looks bleak due to the Omicron spreading rapidly and another new stealth circulating in other countries,” Ministry of Health spokesman Hok Kim Cheng said He pointed out BA.1.1, BA.1, BA.2. BA.3, or even BA.2.2 that are reported in Cambodia are all classified under the Omicron umbrella unless the variant like Deltacron that will be classified like another variant. DJ [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/south-korea-s-public-health-collapses-as-record-400,741-new-covid-19-infections-and-another-2,138-hospitalized-in-last-24-hours[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/south-korea-s-public-health-collapses-as-record-400,741-new-covid-19-infections-and-another-2,138-hospitalized-in-last-24-hours ; Most of the population is vaccinated-did get a booster, restrictions were lifted..hardly any sequencing...DJ-This is "living with the virus" ? A "new normal"? South Korea did see 1,612 deaths in the last 7 days, +37%, the week before it was 1,174 deaths on a population of 51,3 million. another worldometer statistic; Asia cases +6%, deaths -9% Europe cases +9%, deaths still -21% North America cases still -19%, deaths -21% (however Guatamala cases +17%, Honduras +26%, Cuba +8%...lots of islands also reporting cases going up high speed...). some twitter; 1.2% of South Korea's population has tested positive for COVID-19, in just one day and BREAKING: South Korea reports 621,328 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 429 new deaths letting Omicron spread without any control may be a very bad idea ! End of part 3 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: March 18 2022 at 12:12am |
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DJ-Some twitter to begin with; Hong Kong is expected to run out of coffins within days as a new wave of Covid rips through the city, officials have said. Just 300 coffins remain and are expected to be used up in days - Replying to A Rhinolophus bat weights ~10^1 grams, population size is probably around 10^8 at most. Humans weigh 10^4-10^5 grams, population size 10^10. So we just allowed a SARS virus to replicate 5 to 6 orders of magnitude more than it ever did in the past... - I don't think infections will keep conferring an additive, multiplicative protection, the body does not become more and more physiologically adaptive. That 61% reduction in death is probably the cap of how infection-based immunity confers protection all from [url]https://twitter.com/x2indspeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2indspeculator So if you do think "the pandemic is over" lots of indications it is not... [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ may be far from complete but still give further (statistical) indications.. South Korea (reporting over 600,000 new cases) trends for both cases and deaths +47% ; 52,799 cases per million of population in the last 7 days...36 deaths per million..(over 7 days, so per million 5,1 death per day)...South Korea did see over 4,5 million cases the last 2 weeks...almost 3,100 deaths... Hong Kong did see 25,663 new cases per million last 7 days...261 deaths per million...yesterday 21,650 new cases, 289 deaths...on a population of 7,6 million. The last two weeks 508,000 HK population tested positive...allmost 10% ! HK had 3,870 deaths the last two weeks...0,05% (7,6million=76,000=1%. 7,600=0,1%)... In Europe Germany reported 296,980 new cases-trend +19%, 242 deaths, trend 0%... France 101,747 cases, +35%, 116 deaths -9% UK 89,717 new cases +31%, 138 deaths +5% [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-its-the-largest-covid-wave-ever/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-its-the-largest-covid-wave-ever/ ; Nearly two hundred and seventy thousand symptomatic cases recorded in a single day in Britsin. The ZOE Covid app is showing extraordinary infection figures for the UK. March 2022 is seeing the highest ever peak for Covid cases in Britain. 268,704 people reported themselves as being infected with Covid-19 to ZOE on the 16th March 2022. The predicted number of ongoing Covid cases was 2,807,072 on the 16th March, higher than February’s peak of 2.68 million predicted cases, and higher even than December’s mega-wave of 2.75 million (predicted cases are higher than daily cases, as Covid-19 can take several days or weeks to run its course). or [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/great-news-daily-covid-19-infections,-hospitalizations-and-deaths-increasing-in-the-united-kingdom[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/great-news-daily-covid-19-infections,-hospitalizations-and-deaths-increasing-in-the-united-kingdom (TMN) [url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time DJ-Here in NL cases -18%, deaths -7% [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/17/covid-hospital-total-shows-first-decline-12-days[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/17/covid-hospital-total-shows-first-decline-12-days We are in between Germany, France and the UK...I would not be surprised to see another wave here in NL... Untill Omicron there was a "dominant variant" resulting in "clear waves"...with Omicron [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues all sorts of recombinations, subvariants create a chaos...Not doing enough testing/sequencing making matters even worse... There is a discussion between virologists on testing...Could "at random" testing be a better alternative ? Maybe if that would result in more sequencing I can see a point...Also increased sewage control-to see what regions have what level of what (sub)variant may be usefull... A problem with testing is that (both at home lateral flow and PCR-testing in a lab) they could miss the infection...DJ-The picture I get is that virus/variants may hide in the body...Maybe testing stool (are there simple tests for that ? Is it usefull ? Can you prevent spread if stool tests positive ?) or blood may be better indicaters then oral/nasal upper respitory swabs... As you can see from the first image above, the UK is now seeing a major wave of Covid EVERY MONTH, and the waves are starting from a much higher baseline compared to the previous Delta waves of 2021. The UK population now faces a future of an almost endless cycle of reinfections, steadily grinding away at the immune system of even the fittest members of society. Unfortunately, following the much lauded Freedom Day less than one month ago, the management of Covid-19 in Britain has gone from risible to virtually non-existent. The UK government may think it’s finished with Covid, but the virus certainly isn’t finished with the UK. DJ (coronaheadsup-link) ...ZOE numbers indicate UK did see 268,704 new cases...UK "government" downplaying it to under 90,000...TMN claiming UK deaths at 1,460 last 24 hrs...not "just" the 138 "bojo" wants to be "the news"....A link from TMN; [url]https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-dozens-of-people-in-uk-have-had-coronavirus-four-times-and-thousands-have-been-infected-three-times-official-figures-show-12568682[/url] or https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-dozens-of-people-in-uk-have-had-coronavirus-four-times-and-thousands-have-been-infected-three-times-official-figures-show-12568682 ;The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) says 62 people have had four positive tests, each of them at least 90 days apart, since the start of the pandemic. Another 7,640 had been infected three times by 6 March 2022, when the data was collected. So the UK strategy [url]https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-cases-up-nearly-50-week-on-week-as-expert-accuses-ministers-of-wanting-to-get-rid-of-data-and-move-on-12566355[/url] or https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-cases-up-nearly-50-week-on-week-as-expert-accuses-ministers-of-wanting-to-get-rid-of-data-and-move-on-12566355 ;"We're seeing a real increase in the elderly getting COVID and I think that will start putting pressure on hospitals," says Prof Tim Spector. is simply deny there is a problem...And most countries follow that "strategy"... End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 18 2022 at 1:05am |
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part 2, DJ-The "dominant belief/hopium" is "it is only mild" ...So no problem the virus is "out of control".... [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/german-study-warns-that-even-mild-sars-cov-2-infections-are-triggering-new-onset-type-2-diabetes-in-many[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/german-study-warns-that-even-mild-sars-cov-2-infections-are-triggering-new-onset-type-2-diabetes-in-many science indicating it is NOT mild ! DJ-One of the criteria that became a dogma is "deaths within 28 days after testing" while Omicron is a slow killer...Causing all kinds of infections all over the body...Another "pseudo-religion" is vaccines do protect enough to limit damage...now mixed with "summer will save us"... DJ; Both natural and vaccine immunity does offer decreasing protection...Lots of countries by now may have seen groups of people being infected several times. The long term damage (of immunity) is not yet fully clear...but new sub-variants are getting better and better in evading immunity. Also restart of mass-events (outdoor) because "it is summer" will further spread the virus... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-4/ba-4-recombinant-of-omicron-ba-1-and-ba-3/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-4/ba-4-recombinant-of-omicron-ba-1-and-ba-3/ has made the news earlier [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/455[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/455 (two weeks old) still more info; Potential BA.4 lineage with a mix of BA.1 and BA.3 mutations, 5 sequences found in South Africa and USA. Cornelius Roemer on Github: I’m breaking this post from @c19850727 into a separate issue to allow for dedicated discussion. Below is the original post from Sakaguchi: Hi I came across the following 5 sequences: They are all classified as BA.1 by Pango/Nextstrain, but with G2832A reversed. Instead, they have T670G (BA.2 and BA.3 defining ), C832T (BA.3 defining ), G4184A (BA.2 and BA.3 defining) and C4321T (BA.2 defining).
William Haseltine at Forbes.com “The simplest interpretation of the origin of BA.4 is a recombination event between BA.1 and BA.3. It is likely that BA.3 contributes the portion of the genome extending from the 5’ end halfway through the NSP3 gene of the replication complex (about 2,000 amino acids). The remainder is plausibly contributed by BA.1” DJ, South Africa cases -5%, deaths -19%...so maybe a new BA.4 (sub)variant does not (yet) spread high speed ? [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/south-korea-and-germany-witnessing-increasing-omicron-deaths-and-hospitalizations-[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/south-korea-and-germany-witnessing-increasing-omicron-deaths-and-hospitalizations- [url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220318001751320?section=business/industry[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220318001751320?section=business/industry ; SEOUL, March 18 (Yonhap) -- The South Korean economy has extended its recovery momentum on the back of robust exports, but the fast spread of the omicron variant is feared to constrain the recovery of private spending, the finance ministry said Friday. External economic uncertainties also heightened as volatility in raw material prices and market fluctuations amplified due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the ministry said in its monthly economic assessment report, called the Green Book. "South Korea's exports have maintained robust recovery and the number of employed people has increased. But the spread of the omicron variant is feared to hamper the recovery of domestic demand," the report said. DJ, A false contradiction between public health and "the economy" is one of the driving factors in this pandemic. In my opinion you can not have a "healthy economy" if you do not have a "healthy population".... Replying to Another mistake of the "herd immunity" fans !
Infection risk depends on behaviours and exposure level.
Therefore many of the infected are always the same wave after wave (because of their behaviour, poor adherence to NPIs...).
This does not induce  of seroprevalence.-DJ, Some jobs are high risk, some people may be also have less immunity (due to age, health or simply bad luck...Earlier cold-corona viral infections may play a role ?) One can compare China "Zero CoViD" with a.o. the UK "zero strategy"...If countries had sticked to "Zero CoViD" in the early stages in 2020 most likely this pandemic could be over...By NOT doing so we may be on our way to a worst pandemic in centuries... One of the major questions we now may need to answer is how to deal with this pandemic...can we still realisticly go for a sort of "Zero CoViD"...if not what are the other options ? How bad could it get if we decided the "let the virus do its thing" ? Maybe I find time for a part 3... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 18 2022 at 2:58am |
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Part 3, Let me base it on [url]https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/who-says-global-rise-covid-cases-is-tip-iceberg-2022-03-16/[/url] or https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/who-says-global-rise-covid-cases-is-tip-iceberg-2022-03-16/ ; A combination of factors was causing the increases, including the highly transmissible Omicron variant and its BA.2 sublineage, and the lifting of public health and social measures, the WHO said. "These increase are occurring despite reductions in testing in some countries, which means the cases we're seeing are just the tip of the iceberg," WHO's head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters. Low vaccination rates in some countries, driven partly by a "huge amount of misinformation" also explained the rise, WHO officials said. DJ; -Thailand Medical News a.o. keep repeating...there must be lots of subvariants...Hong Kong variant would be BA.2.2...(most likely the earlier DenmarK variant BA.2.1) [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports still NOT reporting futher sub-types of a.o. BA.2 (SA BA.4 type discussion started two weeks ago) may indicate "science" is divided... - "tip of the iceberg" should at least give some relevant indications...You may not need to test all-if ad random testing and good sequencing, sewage-sampling, would give a better indication it may be even wiser to "drop large scale testing' in exchange for much better quality surveilance...Statistics have a goal... -Vaccination does not stop infection that much but may prevent developing serious symptoms.. The biggest jump was in the WHO's Western Pacific region, which includes South Korea and China, where cases rose by 25% and deaths by 27%. Africa also saw a 12% rise in new cases and 14% rise in deaths, and Europe a 2% rise in cases but no jump in deaths. Other regions reported declining cases, including the eastern Mediterranean region, although this area saw a 38% rise in deaths linked to a previous spike in infections. A number of experts have raised concerns that Europe faces another coronavirus wave, with case rising since the beginning of March in Austria, Germany, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. DJ; -Worldometer trends for Africa gives cases -34%, deaths -40%...Europe did see cases going up more then 2%, deaths -18%...so far that matter most of Europe IS already in another wave...(maybe the data behind the article was a bit old to begin with ?) The picture in Europe is also not universal. Denmark, for example, saw a brief peak in cases in the first half of February, driven by BA.2, which quickly subsided. But experts have begun to warn that the United States could soon see a similar wave to that seen in Europe, potentially driven by BA.2, the lifting of restrictions and potential waning immunity from vaccines given several months ago. "I agree with the easing of restrictions, because you can't think of it as an emergency after two years," said Antonella Viola, professor of immunology at Italy's University of Padua. "We just have to avoid thinking that COVID is no longer there. And therefore maintain the strictly necessary measures, which are essentially the continuous monitoring and tracking of cases, and the maintenance of the obligation to wear a mask in closed or very crowded places." DJ -Denmark did see BA.2.1 [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/denmark/denmark-weekly-trends-report-week-10/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/denmark/denmark-weekly-trends-report-week-10/ ....There may be lots of sub-types...Immunity against one may not offer protection against other sub-variants... -US vaccination level-in general-is lower then that of Western Europe-or for that matter South Korea...so "waning" of immunity -"avoid thinking that CoViD is no longer there"...lots of countries dropped mandatory masks, monitoring/tracking cases also becoming less... My view of this article; "all will be fine" non-science..."extra boosters' and 'summer" are expected to do miracles they failed to do so far... We would still have waves even with no variants It's two forces superimposed on each other Waning immunity would lead to waves even with homologous variants. These would be periodic and predictable Antigenic evolution is random and unpredictable and makes waves more frequent So even without "new variants" decrease of immunity and evolution of known variants would allready result in other waves...DJ-Point is there most likely will be new variants...and lots of them.... There may have been "billions" of infections both in human and non-human hosts resulting in (tens of) millions deaths so far... What is the way out : - More knowledge/study on the virus, infection - Better intervention/vaccines & medication to limit damage the best we can... - Realistic communications...we may have no other options then "to live with the virus" but it is still a much higher risk then flu... - Limit travel, limit variant spread... - Prepare for worsening of the pandemic...or another pandemic just around the corner... Living with the virus means an INCREASE of action, not a decrease ! By better regional interventions one may stop the higher risk variants from spreading...or at least slowing them down. "Simple' criteria like "death within 4 weeks" may not be usefull any longer in this pandemic... DJ-The reason why the acute phase of CoViD is still the "main pandemic news" is that the number of infections is still this high (2,074,882 new cases, +5%, 6,038 deaths -18% even with the US only reporting 35,474 new cases, India 2,528...those numbers are simply a form of denial of the pandemic... We are moving to 500 million cases having tested positive...62 million+ active cases...however the chronic phase is growing fast...maybe not always very clear nut should be also in "tens of millions of cases"... Even if new infections would be much milder, more cold/flu like...the Long CoViD numbers are that high global healthcare will face serious problems for coming decades... And when the virus changes the narrative, it doesn’t just change it in one country, it changes it everywhere. Here’s same chart, but for Europe & US. It’s the same story. What looked like mystery double-peaks are now clearly a BA.1 peak followed by BA.2. DJ See [url]https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1504497744555257860/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1504497744555257860/photo/1 DenmarK BA.1 cases still had to peak when BA.2 came up...BA.2.1 may have slowed down the decrease of cases there ..DK cases now -40% may give some room for hope that "we may see some breaks" ... But in general my view is-without realistic steps-this pandemic only will get worse...With; - More (sub) variants spreading at the same time, - Increase of co/re-infections (more recombinations...but also "flurona" etc co-infection of CoViD and (H3N2) flu) resulting in more severe outcomes - Increase of spread in non-human hosts - Increase of "immunity selection" resuling in new (sub) variants even more better in evading immunity - A "virus does not have a will" , however it does have a "drive"...higher viral loads may be next; simply because the virus like to create as many new virusses as it can... If we still fail to take this pandemic serious-my opinion-it may "end us"... End of part 3 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 19 2022 at 12:01am |
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DJ, India does have had the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holi[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holi festival ;Holi celebrates the arrival of spring, the end of winter, the blossoming of love and for many, it is a festive day to meet others, play and laugh, forget and forgive, and repair broken relationships.[18][19] The festival also celebrates the beginning of a good spring harvest season.[18][19] It lasts for a night and a day, starting on the evening of the Purnima (Full Moon Day) falling in the Hindu calendar month of Phalguna, which falls around the middle of March in the Gregorian calendar. The first evening is known as Holika Dahan (burning of Demon Holika) or Chhoti Holi and the following day as Holi, Rangwali Holi, Dol Purnima, Dhuleti, Dhulandi,[20] Ukuli, Manjal Kuli,[21] Yaosang, Shigmo[22] or Phagwah,[23] Jajiri.[24] DJ March 17-18 India, march 17 in Nepal...So far India cases -40%, deaths -41% , Nepal cases -42%-0 deaths...Asia cases however +11%, deaths -8%...most of the increases in East Asia. China +396%, 13,294 cases in the last 7 days, 2,682 the week before...most likely China now has a definition for "CoViD deaths" that results in no one dying from CoViD but from the complications of CoViD....So there most likely may be an increase of deaths from hearth, lung, brain, kidney etc. problems...all of them testing positive for CoViD... Laos cases +186%, South Korea +52%...South Korea reporting another 407,017 new cases yesterday-301 deaths +47%... Taiwan +11% for cases, Thailand +8%...Vietnam now -0,7%, Hong Kong -30%, Cambodia would be -48% however [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/cambodia/cambodia-omicron-spreading-like-wildfire/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/cambodia/cambodia-omicron-spreading-like-wildfire/ ; Omicron is spreading like wildfire across Cambodia. “Before Omicron variant came into the country, we were confident of shifting the Covid-19 pandemic to endemic. We were almost there and now it looks bleak due to the Omicron spreading rapidly and another new stealth circulating in other countries,” Ministry of Health spokesman Hok Kim Cheng said He pointed out BA.1.1, BA.1, BA.2. BA.3, or even BA.2.2 that are reported in Cambodia are all classified under the Omicron umbrella unless the variant like Deltacron that will be classified like another variant. from march 16...[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=IND[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=IND puts BA.2 in India at 92% of last 60 days sequencing...latest info from march 1. DJ, Large scale testing of the 1,403 million+ India population has been problematic all during this pandemic. India comes up with 368 deaths per million of population in this pandemic. (China just 3, Pakistan 133...) Turkey may be more realistic with 1.130 deaths per million, Israel has 1,117 , Iran 1,625...Germany 1,511, Brazil 3,053, the US 2,983... India would have had 516,381 CoViD deaths...some studies indicate the real number could be up to 10x that number..somewhere between 3 and 5 million deaths... [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues reporting again further recombinations (BA.1+BA.2, Delta+BA.1).. If the "rich countries" are not even able to get a realistic view...what are countries "kept poor" have as perspective ? [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-its-the-largest-covid-wave-ever/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-its-the-largest-covid-wave-ever/ update; As you can see from the first image above, the UK is now seeing a major wave of Covid EVERY MONTH, and the waves are starting from a much higher baseline compared to the previous Delta waves of 2021. The UK population now faces a future of an almost endless cycle of reinfections, steadily grinding away at the immune system of even the fittest members of society. Unfortunately, following the much lauded Freedom Day less than one month ago, the management of Covid-19 in Britain has gone from risible to virtually non-existent. The UK government may think it’s finished with Covid, but the virus certainly isn’t finished with the UK. For anyone who thinks they are ‘immune’ to covid, I’ve had it 3 times, have both natural+vaccine antibodies on my SIREN study blood tests+am triple vaxxed. Only 6 weeks between 2nd+3rd infections    #covidDJ, I ended yesterday with info of some European countries getting BA.2 peaks ON TOP OF BA.1/BA.1.1 peaks...with the number of (sub)variants, recombinations around " it is only waiting" for " yet another pandemic on top of the present one" ... [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3UFRrXqqUI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j3UFRrXqqUI Prof. Tim Spector/ZOE tracker app; This week, Tim talks about the continued rocketing of COVID cases, worrying data among the more vulnerable groups and symptoms of COVID in older people compared to those in younger age groups, as well as what it means now if you test positive for the virus. Blog on cancer and gut health: https://joinzoe.com/learn/gut-cancer-... Link to omicron blog and video: https://joinzoe.com/learn/new-omicron... For the website visit: https://covid.joinzoe.com/ For more information on Wider Studies visit: covid.joinzoe.com/wider-health-studies For more localised data visit: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data For vaccine data map please visit: https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#vaccin... The app is available to download from: https://api.covidradar.org/launch/ Join our newsletter to get the latest updates on ZOE's discoveries, from COVID to gut health, direct to your inbox by signing up here: http://eepurl.com/hlUh-L If you need subtitles, please click the option for subtitles at the bottom right of the video DJ, 1-in-24 in the UK now has CoViD symptoms...UK government in denial....defunding ZOE....Older people see more health issues, NHS (still not privatized-yet) moving in another crisis...(but main news is Ukraine-war). Daily UK cases 250,000-minimum may still be 125,000 per day. Death ratio from direct CoViD infection now under that of flu...however indirect problems may-on the longer term-give a different picture. DJ-The virus/(sub)variants will keep mutating...resulting in new "super-spread deathly" worse variants with even higher viral loads...This pandemic is far from over ! End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 20 2022 at 1:08am |
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DJ-part 1-sunday march 20...may not find the time for a part 2... BREAKING—China has now confirmed its first #COVID19 deaths in over a year. China is grappling with sustained outbreaks in two-thirds of its provinces (>90 million in full or partial lockdown). Most of its cases are the new more contagious #BA2 subvariant. https://nytimes.com/live/2022/03/18/world/covid-19-mandates-cases-vaccine/china-covid-deaths… A look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ has China (PRC) reporting 2,228 new cases, 2 deaths...(DJ-Yesterday I wondered if China did "re-difine/use another definition" for CoViD deaths...well at least two deaths now confirmed...A few months back Flutrackers did have a link to Chinese media mentioning even more deaths... In trends China cases now +400%,. Last 7 days 14,934 new cases, the week before 2,989...In the media/twitter I did notice some discussion on China sticking to "Zero-CoViD"...I think China has no real alternatives...so it will be sticking to massive testing, regional lockdowns and balance it with economic interests... Hong Kong had its own BA.2.2 "explosion" and some of that may be spreading in the Chinese mainland as well-however most cases seem to be in NE China bordering Russia/North Korea. It will be interesting to see how Chinese vaccins work out...if they will go for further boosters (some claim China thinking of buying mRNA vaccines from the "West"...DJ-I think they rather develop their own mRNA vaccines-may seek non-western partners for it (Cuba, Iran, Russia). Still I do expect China may have to face an "explosion of cases"... India is the other country with a population of 1,4 billion...cases there still -40%...they did see BA.2 spreading, however this may not offer protection against BA.2.2. Asia cases +8%, deaths -8%...most of the global population lives in Asia...the number of Asian deaths in this pandemic may be above 10 million...most of them never did see testing... [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues with two other BA.1/BA.2 recombinations..US and South Africa...There are hardly any recombinations mentioned coming from Asia...Maybe Israel may be doing research on it...it looks like even South Korea could be ignoring it... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-its-the-largest-covid-wave-ever/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-its-the-largest-covid-wave-ever/ update-2 ;There are more than 3,000,000 estimated ongoing cases in the UK: DJ Based on ZOE tracker app... Yesterday 1,4 million new cases were reported, 3,806 deaths...global trend +4%, deaths -19%.. US reported 12,362 new cases...totally unrealistic... DJ [url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/ is working with statistics to try to get a realistic view of the pandemic (ZOE in the UK). You may not need to test that massively if you have better alternatives...sewage-sampling may be one of them. It can work as an " early warning system" virus-parts in sewage goes up before-often-positive testing goes up...One could start increasing restrictions in area's with sewage showing higher viral spread...France once increased vaccinations in area's with higher number of cases...to at least try to increase protection... The major problem by now is that we did give up on any strategy...just give the virus the chance to spread.... Infecting everyone with Omicron will NOT lead to controlling future waves. "Omicron breakthrough infections are less immunogenic than Delta, thus providing reduced protection against reinfection or infection from future variants." DJ, in the earlier stages of this pandemic we did see two-maybe three-waves per year...UK may be indicating we could see (much) more waves per year if you do not have a basic strategy... [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports often showed first a wave of BA.1, then of BA.1.1, now BA.2 that may be followed by (Hong Kong) BA.2.2...Omicron started less then half a year ago in becoming a global issue... Delta has almost 240 sub-types. Since Omicron did spread much faster-meaning there must have been much more mutations-most likely there may be allready over a 1.000 subtypes of Omicron...(Outbreak only mentions less then 20...even missing BA.2.2). [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-breakthrough-omicron-infections-actually-reduces-protection-against-reinfection-or-infection-from-future-variants-we-are-doomed[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-breakthrough-omicron-infections-actually-reduces-protection-against-reinfection-or-infection-from-future-variants-we-are-doomed DJ-I do not like "we are doomed" , my words maybe "we are defenseless"...but it comes down to the same...It may be very hard to still get some grip, control on this pandemic...It may be a very long term struggle that would need a total change of how we live...however the alternative could be "the virus wins"... I would LOVE to believe "it will get milder"...But why should it ? More realistic is the "virus learned" how to spread even better and to increase viral load...new variants may combine a much higher viral load with extreme high level of spread...If you did believe we were at the end of this pandemic-I would again love to believe it-but my thinking/understanding may give me another much pessimistic view... Again-I am NOT an expert-just trying to make my mind up...hope to understand some basics... As BA.2 looms, updated their Community Levels metric yesterday and I also obtained and linked the older Community Transmission metric data. Below is a reflection of where we were yesterday in terms of "risk level" using each metric and the CDC's color scheme for each DJ link [url]https://twitter.com/JasonSalemi/status/1504856548647976963/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/JasonSalemi/status/1504856548647976963/photo/1 of course a "strategy" can be calling 1-in-10 persons infected "low level" but word-games is denial of science... End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 20 2022 at 2:49am |
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[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/america/usa/usa-biden-administration-launches-effort-to-reduce-the-spread-of-covid-%e2%81%a019-in-buildings/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/america/usa/usa-biden-administration-launches-effort-to-reduce-the-spread-of-covid-%e2%81%a019-in-buildings/ ; The Clean Air in Buildings Challenge is a call to action for leaders and building owners and operators of all types to assess their indoor air quality and make ventilation and air filtration improvements to help keep occupants safe. Earlier this month, the Biden-Harris Administration released the National COVID-19 Preparedness Plan, a roadmap to move the country forward safely and continue to fight COVID-19 as Americans get back to their more normal routines. Today the Administration is launching the Clean Air in Buildings Challenge, a key component of the President’s Plan, that calls on all building owners and operators, schools, colleges and universities, and organizations of all kinds to adopt key strategies to improve indoor air quality in their buildings and reduce the spread of COVID-19. - This guide – developed in collaboration with the Department of Energy, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other federal agencies – contains a set of clear recommendations organized into four groups:
Under each of these recommendation areas, EPA’s best practices guide lays out clear-cut actions building owners and operators can implement. The best practices guide is designed to serve as a menu of improvements to choose from. The guide includes quick steps that all organizations can take right away as a starting place, as well as resources to help plan for longer-term investments and improvements. - ** Excellent news. Better building ventilation could help save the lives of millions of American, not just from Covid-19, but also from other airborne pollutants and toxins. The Clean Air in Buildings Challenge could be as important as the UK’s Clean Air Act of 1956 was in cleaning up London’s famous smogs ** DJ, This US idea may also change the pandemic-strategy. If you can "filter-out" the virus you may be able to reduce spread... Another "tool" has to be better vaccines-offering better protection against viral infections (maybe in general...H5N1 is another major worry..."Flu-rona", CoViD and flu co-infection yet another problem we may need to face. If we also increase flu-vaccinations could that further limit this pandemic ? Better treatments, medications further could limit the damage...If you catch the virus early intervention may stop the virus from spreading inside your body... Of course realistic studies, real science, has to be the major tool-not "hopium"..... From the [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-breakthrough-omicron-infections-actually-reduces-protection-against-reinfection-or-infection-from-future-variants-we-are-doomed[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-breakthrough-omicron-infections-actually-reduces-protection-against-reinfection-or-infection-from-future-variants-we-are-doomed a few links; [url]https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(22)00329-4[/url] or https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(22)00329-4 ; Decreased antibody responses in Omicron breakthrough infections relative to Delta were potentially related to a higher proportion of asymptomatic or mild breakthrough infections (55.0% versus 28.6%, respectively), which exhibited 12.3-fold lower titers against WT compared to moderate-severe infections (p=0.020). Following either Delta or Omicron breakthrough infection, limited variant-specific cross-neutralizing immunity was observed. These results suggest that Omicron breakthrough infections are less immunogenic than Delta, thus providing reduced protection against reinfection or infection from future variants. and [url]https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1504825391604649985[/url] or https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1504825391604649985 ; Omicron breakthrough infections induce a weak neutralizing antibody response, ~1/10 that of Delta, 1/3 of a booster shot, "suggesting reduced protection vs infection or a future variant" https://cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(22)00329-4… - I’m very concerned that this is a reflection of original antigenic seniority DJ, in reaction others mention nasal vaccinations....a nasal-spray to offer a lot of protection... So I do not want to be that pessimistic... We’ve reached a point where people don’t even question the data. We aren’t testing. The CDC changed the metrics & “recalculated” the data. Thousands of Americans are dying of Covid weekly. BA.2 is here, & the US is getting rid of data in a bid to make the virus disappear. - points to another real risk Are the media misleading us? As seen in climate "change", wars...mis-information to serve "certain interests" may undo all science can come up with...If you do not want to see the problem you are not willing to even think about solutions... This pandemic should have been prevented ! Better early detection-good global public health-could have warned us that the pandemic we did expect had arrived...Somehow we did expect this pandemic but failed to prepare for its arrival... End of part 2 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 21 2022 at 12:19am |
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DJ, A look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ sunday-march 20-numbers; reported cases 1,116,872 trend -0,2%....(!) reported deaths 2,917 trend -20%...if these numbers would be correct it would be very welcome... Yesterday I also did post some info on BA.2.1 (UK), BA.2.2 (Hong Kong) and BA.2.3 (Philippines) variants. The Philippines now cases/deaths +11%... Asia would still have cases +5%, Oceania even +14%...Europe cases -3%, North America cases -25%.... The picture I am getting is that infection with BA.1 hardly protects against BA.1.1 doing even worse against all kinds of BA.2 sub-variants.... [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/many-who-recovered-from-omicron-are-dying-6-to-10-weeks-on-from-fatal-health-outcomes-research-needed-to-analyze-and-figure-out-what-is-going-on[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/many-who-recovered-from-omicron-are-dying-6-to-10-weeks-on-from-fatal-health-outcomes-research-needed-to-analyze-and-figure-out-what-is-going-on (TMN) keeps warning; -high risk for reïnfection -virus/variants may stay in the body, keep doing its damage (You may have several variants harming different organs...some Delta still in kidneys, while Omicron BA.1 may be in the hearthmuscle...) -They keep claiming a lot of "short term mild infections" could do "a lot of damage" later on... Healthissues would be (much) different from "Long CoViD", people seem to recover but after weeks/months get very serious illness. The TMN-article does not provide further links (outside TMN)...but excess deaths is something that would have to show up in statistics... We live in the STUPIDEST timeline—#BA2 is rising and inevitably surging, yet many states close most of their mass testing sites even when public health experts warn it is TERRIBLE HORRIBLE NO GOOD VERY BAD idea.  #CovidIsNotOver HT https://nytimes.com/2022/03/20/health/fauci-us-cases-ba2.htmlDJ, scientists do NOT want to be seen as "alarmists" or cause panic.... "We must not 'tolerate' the deaths of the nation's most vulnerable (Article by is what Walensky is failing to do) "Walensky and others are suggesting that deaths among the poor and among those with comorbidities are somehow acceptable.” A major worry has to be that we simply stop testing, sequencing because "we" do not want to know....Just like in climate change, wars...once "in motion" looking the other way, denial, makes problems worse... A look at trends; China cases +220%, Laos +205%, Italy +40%, France +36% (they had high BA.1/BA.1.1 numbers recently...so now BA.2 subvariants allready starting another wave...). South Korea +34%, Australia (!) +32%, Cuba +22%, Israel +15%, Philippines +11% (most likely BA.2.3 subvariant)...[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=PHL&dark=true[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=PHL&dark=true "BA.2 at 100%"...no further specification.... [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ is showing most of Europe still has more extra deaths...most likely a further "Omicron linked" increase still has to show up... In response to some leaked mortality data, Hong Kong released selected CFRs. Much of interest (e.g., CoronaVac effectiveness holding up OK) and includes a 15% CFR for unvaccinated (& immunonaive) 80+.
Assuming a UK-like 46% ascertainment for 80+, this implies an 80+ IFR of ~7%. DJ A further indication "Omicron" is taking its time...but is NOT mild !!! End of part 1...maybe I find time for more later on... Stay safe & sane ! |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 21 2022 at 10:46pm |
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DJ, I would love to believe thes numbers were real [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ global cases allmost under 1 million...1,094,244 new cases, trend now +0,7%. "Only"3,430 deaths weekly trend -20%... In part these numbers reflect limited weekend testing...in part also they reflect just a lack of testing, tests no longer able to detect the virus... I would love this pandemic to be over...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/india-568-deltacron-cases-being-investigated/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/india-568-deltacron-cases-being-investigated/ ; It’s beginning to look like Deltacron could be the next big thing…. “Genetic sequencing data from Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) and GSAID indicates that there are 568 Covid sequences under investigation in various genetic laboratories in India that contain both the Delta and Omicron variants” DJ, Omicron did bring high spread, Delta did bring more severe disease/higher viral load...so next step worsening of the pandemic ? India still claiming cases -40%...just over 500,000 CoViD deaths...India did see a very high level (93%) BA.2 (subvariants not further specified...)...so "ready for a next step" ???? [url]https://telanganatoday.com/covid-sequences-under-scanner-telangana-reports-25-deltacron-cases[/url] or https://telanganatoday.com/covid-sequences-under-scanner-telangana-reports-25-deltacron-cases ; Hyderabad: The imminent threat of new variants of coronavirus with a potential to fuel fresh surge in Covid infections continues to remain a cause of worry, as the latest genetic sequencing data from Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) and GSAID indicates that there are 568 Covid sequences under investigation in various genetic laboratories in India that contain both the Delta and Omicron variants. Popularly referred to as Deltacron, 25 such cases have been reported so far in Telangana while Karnataka remains a hotspot with 221, followed by 90 in Tamil Nadu, 66 in Maharashtra, 33 in Gujarat, 32 in West Bengal and 20 in New Delhi. The presence of genetic signatures of both Delta and Omicron variants in 568 Covid sequences is an indication of the presence of recombinant virus, which means it contains genetic elements of both Delta and Omicron or contains genes from both the variants. so, India is not known for a high level of testing...still allready detecting over 500 recombination-variations of Delta and Omicron should be alarming... [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues also has lots of (most European-some US, South Africa) recombinations... "Flurona"...co-infection of a Corona-(sub)variant and a flu-virus (it does not have to be A-H3N2...maybe some other flu-variant mixing-in infection/spread-with CoViD could show up...H7N7 ?) in my opinion could be another high-risk...A worry could be the CoViD and Flu itself could be mild...but a mix could cause an overreaction of the immune system... [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-irish-study-shows-that-integrins-could-be-receptors-for-sars-cov-2-and-integrin-signaling-upon-infection-leads-to-vascular-dysregulation[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-irish-study-shows-that-integrins-could-be-receptors-for-sars-cov-2-and-integrin-signaling-upon-infection-leads-to-vascular-dysregulation DJ-So far most of the studies were on ACE-2 receptors...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrin[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrin as another way in for CoViD (or some sub-variants of it) could be another route...A TMN link [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.15.484274v1[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.15.484274v1 ; The vascular barrier is heavily injured following SARS-CoV-2 infection and contributes enormously to life-threatening complications in COVID-19. This endothelial dysfunction is associated with the phlogistic phenomenon of cytokine storms, thrombotic complications, abnormal coagulation, hypoxemia, and multiple organ failure. The mechanisms surrounding COVID-19 associated endotheliitis have been widely attributed to ACE2-mediated pathways. However, integrins have emerged as possible receptor candidates for SARS-CoV-2, and their complex intracellular signalling events are essential for maintaining endothelial homeostasis. - These findings support integrins as an additional receptor for SARS-CoV-2, particularly as integrin engagement can elucidate many of the adverse endothelial dysfunction events that stem from COVID-19. DJ...so the corona-virus may enter the host in lots of ways...(Earlier TMN claimed also via water, food..via the guts...) In this way not only testing may be getting harder, also vaccinations may become more difficult... To end part 1 DenmarK cases still -37%, deaths -20%...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/denmark/denmark-covid-19-trends-report-week-11/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/denmark/denmark-covid-19-trends-report-week-11/ ; Denmark’s Covid-19 trends report for Week 11 of 2022 shows BA.2_H78Y is stable at about 28% of sequences, a very slight rise from previous weeks. DJ, This BA.2 subtype is not yet seen as BA.2.1 (that is a UK BA.2 subtype).... Israel cases however +35%, deaths still -48% (over 60,000 new cases in last 7 days on a population of just over 9 million...lots of boosters...) [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/daily-covid-cases-rise-to-over-12000-for-first-time-in-nearly-a-month/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/daily-covid-cases-rise-to-over-12000-for-first-time-in-nearly-a-month/ "It is because of BA.2" .... [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=ISR&dark=true[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=ISR&dark=true BA.2 at 17% but latest info from february 28.... South Korea cases still +24%, deaths +44% SK almost did see 5 million cases in the last two weeks...close to 10% of its population...3,661 deaths in 2 weeks... [url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220322001552320?section=national/national[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220322001552320?section=national/national ; SEOUL, March 22 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's new COVID-19 cases spiked to over 350,000 on Tuesday, adding to concerns that infections could spike again as the accumulated caseload nears 10 million. The country reported 353,980 new COVID-19 infections as of midnight, raising the total caseload to 9,936,540, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) said. The total caseload is expected to breach the grim milestone of the 10 million mark within the day, meaning 1 out of 5 South Koreans have become infected with COVID-19. DJ [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=KOR&dark=true[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=KOR&dark=true latest update february 23 (!!!!!) BA.2 also at 17% at that time...a month ago.... The US this week will go over the 1 million CoViD deaths-on a population of 334 million...and that is BAD !!!! The real number may be far worse...in many countries... End of part 1, maybe I'll find time for a sort of part 2 later on... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 23 2022 at 12:37am |
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DJ-a very short part 1; Since we live in a democrazy in wich most votes/€/$ count; -most of us want this pandemic to be over, climate change no problem..."the west" is on the "good" side in the Ukraine war... Most votes count, end of discussion.... end of part 1... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: March 23 2022 at 12:46am |
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DJ-since we don not solve problems by voting against it being a problem; [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/early-screening-data-show-new-covid-subvariant-gaining-ground-us[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/early-screening-data-show-new-covid-subvariant-gaining-ground-us ; As we reported earlier this month, Western Europe has already seen an uptick in new cases caused by the variant. In the UK, BA.2 surpassed the 50% mark of overall cases. Although so far, the variant appears to be no more severe than the initial omicron strain. Still, there’s concern about its ability to reinfect people, as well as potential links to "long COVID". Overall, the number of newly confirmed cases has continued to decline in the US, but experts (including Dr. Fauci) have warned that the decline could easily reverse, leading to a "bump" in new cases as COVID restrictions are largely abandoned. Also, cases have been rising in population centers like NYC, a trend that sewage data predicted weeks ago. DJ-Zero Hedge from time to time coming up with good info...sometimes...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ under-reporting US cases; 23,607 new cases-trend -18%, 817 deaths -35%....maybe these cases are just the US hospital numbers ? Will the US simply stop reporting CoViD deaths to avoid getting over 1 million US CoViD-deaths ? With 999,972 US CoViD deaths the US may go over the 1 million deaths today... To put it in perspective however; per million the US did see 2,990 deaths. Brazil had 3,057, UK 2,393, France 2,155, Germany 1,518 (So US deaths per million almost twice the German number). Peru still on top with now 6,278 deaths per million. Since 10,000=1% of 1 million Peru did see 0,6278% of its population die from CoViD. India still claiming 368 deaths per million-a total of 516,636 CoViD deaths...the real India number most likely closer to 10X the official number-over 5 million... Another way to put it in perspective-worldometer European CoViD deaths now at 1,756,494. North America 1,433,697 (it does not give deaths per million per "region"; Europe has a larger population then North America). Asia would be at an (unrealistic) 1,386,936 deaths - with a population of over 4 billion....South America would be at 1,284,110 CoViD deaths... Maybe also a look at trends; Global would now be at -0,2% for cases (would be nice if it was real...). Laos +215% (BA.2 subvariant ? Other-new-variant ? New corona-virus starting SARS-3...SE Asian bats have over 30 corona-virusses...just waiting to jump over to other species...) Hungary-central Europe-+141%, Uganda +109%, Bahama's +106% , China +57% (last 7 days 14,060 new cases, the week before 8,984...so 23,000 cases in 2 weeks...maybe China now moving into the worst part of the pandemic...no further new deaths then just the 2 reported earlier...China has been very agressive in keeping numbers low...). Israel cases +35%, 69,048 last 7 days, 47,776 the week before-so around 115,000 new cases on a population of just 9,3 million-over 1% of Israel population testing positive...deaths -35% so vaccinations may limit severe disease. France +43%, Philippines +42%-deaths +19%...Philippines has the BA.2.3 subvariant...Italy +32%, South Korea still +15%, Germany, Argentina both +10%, UK +5%, Canada (!!!) +3%. In total now 75 countries reporting an increase of cases...43 countries reporting number of deaths increasing in %... [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues reporting FOUR !!! more BA.1/BA.2 recombinations being detected...(Spain, Brazil, UK...). Some of these recombinations may result in weaker variants...point is some will be "better" in spreading, higher viral load... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/origins/research-evidence-of-sars-cov-2-before-wuhan-outbreak-in-2019/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/origins/research-evidence-of-sars-cov-2-before-wuhan-outbreak-in-2019/ ; “In the USA, SARS-CoV-2 reactive antibodies were detected in over 100 blood samples collected in several different states in early December 2019. In Brazil, environmental surveillance monitoring demonstrated early SARS-CoV-2 community spread at the end of November 2019 by detecting viral RNA in wastewater. A study performed in the UK identified a few blood donors in May 2019 whose sera presented SARS-CoV-2 S-reactive antibodies associated with a presumed current immune response. In France, antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 were found in serum samples collected in November 2019, and viral RNA was detected in December 2019 in a respiratory sample from a patient hospitalised for haemoptysis.” BMJ research piece: Waiting for the truth: is reluctance in accepting an early origin hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 delaying our understanding of viral emergence? DJ Are we able and willing to review our ideas on CoViD ? [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-british-study-shows-that-59-percent-of-post-covid-individuals-are-inflicted-with-organ-impairment[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-british-study-shows-that-59-percent-of-post-covid-individuals-are-inflicted-with-organ-impairment and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/preprint-multi-organ-impairment-and-long-covid/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/preprint-multi-organ-impairment-and-long-covid/ : “3 in 5 people with Long COVID have impairment in at least one organ, and 1 in 4 have impairment in two or more organs, in some cases without symptoms.” Several studies confirm persistence of symptoms in individuals with Long COVID up to 1 year. We now add that 3 in 5 people with Long COVID have impairment in at least one organ, and 1 in 4 have impairment in two or more organs, in some cases without symptoms. Impact on quality of life and time off work, particularly in healthcare workers, is a major concern for individuals, health systems and economies. Preprint : Multi-organ impairment and Long COVID: a 1-year prospective, longitudinal cohort study both underline the long term risks of the virus... End of part 2.... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: March 23 2022 at 10:46pm |
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DJ-Yesterday I did write (latest news) about my idea of new BA.2 sub-variants possibly -at least in some cases-could be (forms of) Deltacron...A mix of Delta-VOC and Omicron for the most part...It could explain higher number of cases, higher viral load we did see a.o. in Hong Kong with BA.2.2...Philipines cases +6%, deaths +50% linked to BA.2.3 ???? Again-I am NOT an expert-just following the story and trying to limit non-sense the best I can.... March 23 [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ allmost 1,8 million cases-trend -2%. Deaths 4,675 reported -17%... A top 5 #1, South Korea reporting 490,707 new cases, +16%, 291 deaths +48% #2 Germany 301,544, +6%, 331 deaths +4% #3 France 145,560, +39%, 101 deaths -16% #4 Vietnam 127,883, -19%, 61 deaths -10% #5 Italy 76,260, +24%, 153 deaths -2% So two East Asian countries, three West European countries in the global top 5. Australia at 6 (cases =36% !), Austria at 7 (-3%), UK (+2%),Brazil (-11%) , NL at #10 cases -28%... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/deltacron/preprint-identification-of-deltacron-recombinants-in-the-united-states/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/deltacron/preprint-identification-of-deltacron-recombinants-in-the-united-states/ ; In this report, we describe viruses with recombinant genomes containing signature mutations from Delta and Omicron variants. These genomes are the first evidence for a Delta-Omicron hybrid Spike protein in the United States. We identify candidate Delta-Omicron recombinant genomes from CDC’s national genomic surveillance and describe efforts to rule out laboratory contamination or sequencing error. We show that these genomes are likely the result of recombination within the Spike gene, containing substitutions common to Delta lineages at the 5’ end and Omicron lineages at the 3’ end . Preprint: Identification of a Novel SARS-CoV-2 Delta-Omicron Recombinant Virus in the United States and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/eurocron-variant-ba-2-2-plus-si210t-mutation-fast-increasing-in-uk-and-europe-experts-need-to-focus-on-emerging-fast-evolving-ba-2-subvariants-globall[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/eurocron-variant-ba-2-2-plus-si210t-mutation-fast-increasing-in-uk-and-europe-experts-need-to-focus-on-emerging-fast-evolving-ba-2-subvariants-globall ...."Eurocron" a mutated BA.2.2 (Hong Kong) subvariant of BA.2.... Maybe Thailand Medical News is correct in claiming "Deltacron" is not the real story-in the sense that AY.4-BA.1 mix/co-infections are very limited...while BA.2.2 is spreading in many places (UK, Brazil, Vietnam, China) and even infecting people that had BA.2 within the last 90 days.... DJ-Are we simply not doing enough sequencing still ? Is there a "cover up" for BA.2+ subvariants ? Maybe how to name it is not the point, the risks it brings is the point-combining the worst from both Delta (severe disease) and Omicron (high spread)....but again-I am only trying to make sense... Israel cases +67%, deaths -40%...France, China +39% (Taiwan +41%)...UK+2% (at #75 for increase by %...)...USA -9%-Canada +9%... · There is a new class of SARS-CoV-2 that the scientific community contends may become a problem, recombinants. Here I investigate a new strain of SARS-CoV-2 that combines portions of previous variants of concern Delta and Omicron—the recombinant Deltacron. https://forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2022/03/22/en-garde-for-sars-cov-2-chimeras-recombinants/?sh=2f830ab85673 DJ-Link [url]https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2022/03/22/en-garde-for-sars-cov-2-chimeras-recombinants/?sh=775bfefc5673[/url] or https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2022/03/22/en-garde-for-sars-cov-2-chimeras-recombinants/?sh=775bfefc5673 ;....basic-we do not know enough....(DJ,and "Delta-cron" could not be the correct word for it...). Maybe more later on....end of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 24 2022 at 1:40pm |
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[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/no-plans-to-close-airport-officials-say-amid-fear-of-renewed-covid-spike/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/no-plans-to-close-airport-officials-say-amid-fear-of-renewed-covid-spike/ ; Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Health Minister Niztan Horowitz met with the head of Israel’s Health Maintenance Organizations to discuss a new vaccine drive set to target Israel’s elderly, and to plan for the possibility of a more severe COVID variant hitting Israel in the future. However, talk of closing the airport during the meeting, which coincided with rising Omicron infection rates and the discovery of a new subvariant in the country, led some to believe such a move could soon be in the offing. “The prime minister wanted to make sure Israel is prepared in case of a very dangerous variant, in terms of equipment and regarding closing the skies. This is not the current situation, just a what if,” Sigal Regev Rosenberg, head of the Meuhedet HMO, tells Army Radio. Coronavirus czar Salman Zarka tells Channel 13 that the BA.2 variant is swiftly spreading and the number of new daily infections could double to 30,000 within a week. DJ, no further specification on what type of BA.2 [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/sars-cov-2-potential-recombinants-in-brazil-belgium-france-netherlands-us-finland-puerto-rico-spain/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/sars-cov-2-potential-recombinants-in-brazil-belgium-france-netherlands-us-finland-puerto-rico-spain/ ; SARS_CoV-2 recombinants seem to have been popping up across the globe recently. We have listed some of the most recent examples below, with links to their various Github issue pages.
DJ In NL flu-cases going up; [url]https://www.rivm.nl/griep-griepprik/feiten-en-cijfers[/url] or https://www.rivm.nl/griep-griepprik/feiten-en-cijfers In de 45 ingestuurde monsters van patiënten met acute klachten aan de luchtwegen (inclusief monsters van patiënten met griepachtige klachten) die zijn afgenomen in de afgelopen week werd 21 maal (47%) influenzavirus type A(H3N2), 1 maal (2%) influenzavirus type A(H1N1)pdm09, 4 maal (9%) SARS-CoV-2, 2 maal (4%) rhinovirus, 1 maal (2%) RS-virus, 7 maal (16%) humaan seizoens-coronavirus en 2 maal (4%) parainfluenzavirus en geen enterovirus of humaan metapneumovirus aangetoond.  Bron grafiek: Peilstations participerend in Nivel Zorgregistraties eerste lijn. So co-infections will increase...(new cases per 100,000, almost half of it H3N2 earlier mentioned in Brazil a.o. in "flurona cases") [url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220324003554320?section=national/national[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220324003554320?section=national/national ; SEOUL, March 24 (Yonhap) -- South Korea reported nearly 400,000 new cases and record high deaths Thursday as the omicron variant is tightening its grip on the country, sickening nearly 20 percent of the 52 million population. The country reported 395,598 new infections as of midnight, raising the total caseload to 10,822,836, the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) said. While the daily tally was a sharp drop from the previous day's 490,881, which was the second-highest daily caseload, deaths hit a new record of 470. The total deaths from COVID-19 came to 13,902, and the fatality rate came to 0.13 percent, the KDCA said. DJ, BA.2 may not offer much immunity against BA.2.2...(or other sub-variants of BA.2). |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: March 25 2022 at 1:12am |
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DJ, Some may remember that I introduced accumulated temporary immunity charts a while back. I see started doing them too, and the vaccination-immunity trend for the US & the world is not good looking forward. Vaccines and Non Pharma Interventions are the effective tools we have to fight disease. In stead of that going for denial-like in climate collapse-only makes matters worse... [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ South Korea almost 400,000 new cases, Germany over 300,000. France and Vietnam both over 100,000 new cases...Italy at #5 with 80,000 new cases, Australia #6 over 60,000....NL at #9 with close to 40,000 new cases reported... Global trends-cases would be -7%, deaths -18%...USA now over the 1 million CoViD-deaths for the last few days...and BA.2 subvariants increasing still US trend would be -9% for cases, -32% for deaths... The global population at present is 7,9 billion : 334(US population=334 million) x1=23,65 million...would that be a more realistic number for global CoViD deaths ? [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/covid-19-censorship/covid-censorship-the-biggest-assault-on-freedom-of-speech-and-democracy-ive-known/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/covid-19-censorship/covid-censorship-the-biggest-assault-on-freedom-of-speech-and-democracy-ive-known/ ; The Covid-19 warning from Ofcom to UK broadcasters “created an environment which led to the biggest assault on freedom of speech and democracy I’ve known in my lifetime. … there is a worldwide narrative, anybody who didn’t follow it was censored”. DJ, Democracy has become democrazy...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/sweden/sweden-bombshell-report-demolishes-covid-19-pandemic-response/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/sweden/sweden-bombshell-report-demolishes-covid-19-pandemic-response/ ; Sweden’s response to the Covid pandemic has received devastating criticism in a new report published in March 2022. Key quotes: “Many elderly people were administered morphine instead of oxygen despite available supplies, effectively ending their lives.” “During spring 2020, many individuals were not admitted to the hospitals, and did not even receive a health examination since they were not considered at risk – resulting in individuals dying at home despite trying to seek help” “there were triage instructions available in Stockholm region, showing that individuals with comorbidities, body mass index above 40 kg/m2, older age (80+) were not to be admitted to intensive care units, since they were unlikely to recover” “Appropriate (potentially life-saving) treatment was withheld without medical examination, and without informing the patient or his/her family or asking permission” “the common narrative being that those in care homes are expected to die soon anyway” “Email conversations and statements from the State Epidemiologist and others show that they at least speculated on the use of children to acquire herd-immunity, while at the same time publicly claiming children played a negligible role in transmission and did not become ill” “scientific methodology was not followed by the major figures in the acting authorities or the responsible politicians” “the authority lacked expertise and could disregard scientific facts” “The Swedish people were kept in ignorance of basic facts such as the airborne SARS-CoV-2 transmission” “Many schools did not inform parents or even teachers about confirmed COVID-19 transmission on the premises, nor reported it to official agencies, and urged parents not to tell if their children were infected” Report conclusionThe Swedish response to this pandemic was unique and characterised by a morally, ethically, and scientifically questionable laissez-faire approach, a consequence of structural problems in the society. There was more emphasis on the protection of the “Swedish image” than on saving and protecting lives or on an evidence-based approach. A strategy was never discussed among all relevant parties, and never implemented nor communicated to the public. In addition, there was an unwillingness and incapacity to admit any failures at all governmental levels; or to take any responsibility for the clearly detrimental outcomes for Swedish society. There were even attempts to revise history by changing, or deleting official documents, communication, and websites, and gaslighting the public. The Swedish authorities involved were not self-critical and did not engage in any official and open dialogue and misled the public by withholding correct information and even spreading misleading information. A small group of so-called experts with a narrow disciplinary focus received a disproportionate and unquestioned amount of power in the discussion, nationally and internationally. There was no intellectual/scientific discussion between stakeholders (including independent experts from different disciplines), and the international advice of WHO, ECDC and the scientific community was ignored and/or discredited. Nature article: Evaluation of science advice during the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden
So now we know why Anders Tegnell left his job in such a hurry… DJ-This may not only describe the Swedish genocide by pandemic...a lot of governments seem not to care about "those that only cost money "....It may-in part-also explain why minorities see so much higher death rates (then "rich white people"). Less access to healthcare, high risk jobs, lower quality housing, education resulting in more deaths... Those that can not work from home, those living with a larger (extended) family in a small-overcrowded-urban house run far more risks...Both vaccines and NPI did serve most those that were allready less at risk. The present (lack of) strategy-"let the virus do it's thing-freedom" will result in more healthproblems, deaths for "the poor"... end of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Posted: March 25 2022 at 3:00am |
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part 2, [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-hong-kong-study-shows-that-omicron-ba-2-variants-and-subvariants-affects-children-more-badly-than-previous-variants-or-flu[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-hong-kong-study-shows-that-omicron-ba-2-variants-and-subvariants-affects-children-more-badly-than-previous-variants-or-flu link to [url]https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4063036[/url] or https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4063036 ; AbstractBackground: There has been a rapid surge of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron hospitalisations globally. However, the intrinsic severity of Omicron BA.2 is unknown, which could be determined by studying Hong Kong (HK) children who were both uninfected and unvaccinated before the Omicron wave. Saying things are back to 'normal' doesn't make it so. If you allow rampant infection in schools, everything takes a hit- health, in-person education. Mitigations can reduce this. So why aren't we investing in masks, ventilation, vaccination, continued testing for children? DJ, CoViD "strategies" seem "hopium based", ignoring facts & science.... New York state reports 3,450 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 49% from last week DJ, US did drop mandatory reporting of CoViD cases/deaths...so reported number of cases did drop...we simply may have lost sight on the pandemic... [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/484[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/484 ; Potential Delta-BA.2 recombinant from Karnataka, India (singlet, 2022-02-11) #484I wouldn't open issues for singlets, but this one is interesting because it's the first possible Delta-BA.2 recombinant I'm aware of. It looks clean to me, with a single breakpoint at the start of S1. hCoV-19/India/KA-CBR-1402CTD094/2022 Potentially worth keeping an eye on DJ, India (with "very limited" testing/reporting) cases still -37%...BA.2 (subvariants) see high spread, Delta did see more severe disease...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/india-568-deltacron-cases-being-investigated/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/india-568-deltacron-cases-being-investigated/ most likely referring to Delta-BA.1 recombinations... Two years ago I was putting on scrubs ready for my first shift in a Covid Admissions Ward. I was eager to help however I could. Little did I know within five weeks I would become unwell, leading to a debilitating chronic illness which has no cure. 1/ DJ, While those in responsible political positions were making profit out of a pandemic the number of Health Care Workers (HCW-ers) getting infected, long term health issues, dying...must be in the hundreds of thousends by now....Our "leaders" now pushing for global war.... Airlines are looking to put everyone at risk & dictate what the CDC says is for the “benefit of the public”. They want to stop testing & keeping travelers safe with masks. In Dec. Delta got the CDC to say it was good for infected workers to go back to work https://cbsnews.com/news/airlines-ask-biden-to-drop-mask-mandate-testing-requirement/ Economy=profit first...[url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.18.22272607v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.03.18.22272607v1 ; AbstractImportance Multi-organ impairment associated with Long COVID is a significant burden to individuals, populations and health systems, presenting challenges for diagnosis and care provision. Standardised assessment across multiple organs over time is lacking, particularly in non-hospitalised individuals. Objective To determine the prevalence of organ impairment in Long COVID patients at 6 and at 12 months after initial symptoms and to explore links to clinical presentation. Design This was a prospective, longitudinal study in individuals following recovery from acute COVID-19. We assessed symptoms, health status, and multi-organ tissue characterisation and function, using consensus definitions for single and multi-organ impairment. Physiological and biochemical investigations were performed at baseline on all individuals and those with organ impairment were reassessed, including multi-organ MRI, 6 months later. Setting Two non-acute settings (Oxford and London). Participants 536 individuals (mean 45 years, 73% female, 89% white, 32% healthcare workers, 13% acute COVID-19 hospitalisation) completed baseline assessment (median: 6 months post-COVID-19). 331 (62%) with organ impairment or incidental findings had follow up, with reduced symptom burden from baseline (median number of symptoms: 10 and 3, at 6 and 12 months). Exposure SARS-CoV-2 infection 6 months prior to first assessment. Main outcome Prevalence of single and multi-organ impairment at 6 and 12 months post-COVID-19. Results Extreme breathlessness (36% and 30%), cognitive dysfunction (50% and 38%) and poor health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L<0.7; 55% and 45%) were common at 6 and 12 months, and associated with female gender, younger age and single organ impairment. At baseline, there was fibro-inflammation in the heart (9%), pancreas (9%), kidney (15%) and liver (11%); increased volume in liver (7%), spleen (8%) and kidney (9%); decreased capacity in lungs (2%); and excessive fat deposition in the liver (25%) and pancreas (15%). Single and multi-organ impairment were present in 59% and 23% at baseline, persisting in 59% and 27% at follow-up. Conclusion and Relevance Organ impairment was present in 59% of individuals at 6 months post-COVID-19, persisting in 59% of those followed up at 1 year, with implications for symptoms, quality of life and longer-term health, signalling need for prevention and integrated care of Long COVID. DJ..."live with it", "it is mild", "it is endemic"... [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern-ba-2-sub-variant?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern-ba-2-sub-variant?view=stream ; During the recent human rights protests in Canada, I was viewing some videos posted by a Canadian woman who had COVID about the time Omicron was circulating. A lot of other Canadians were sharing their experiences with the infection in the comments. All the symptoms and severity levels were similar to my experience in early 2020 with either the Wuhan strain or Alpha. They kept talking about what a strange experience it was - and that was the hallmark of the illness for me. The first exposure is a bizzare, "invasion of the body snatchers" experience. Most of Canada is vaccinated, so I assumed many of the Canadian commenters were vaccinated. If Omicron was a lot less severe than Alpha, it should have been much milder for these people. I wondered if the vaccine was causing ADE. The other possibility was that Omicron is as serious as Alpha. The fact that the death rates are lower could just be due to the grim fact that many vulnerables were killed during Delta. I saw this new study that supports Omicron being just as severe as the first two major iterations of SARS2 as far as hospitalization. It jives with my little collection of comparative anecdotes. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2119682 N Engl J Med 2022; 386:e14 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp2119682 Challenges in Inferring Intrinsic Severity of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Although these studies were conducted in locations with very different case-ascertainment rates, after correcting for underascertainment, each study estimated that omicron was about 75% as likely as delta to cause hospitalization in an unvaccinated person with no history of SARS-CoV-2 infection.2,3 This meaningful but fairly small difference implies that omicron, alpha, and wild-type SARS-CoV-2 have similar intrinsic severity. What does "mild" mean ? End of part 2 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 25 2022 at 11:50pm |
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DJ, China [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinese-factories-set-self-contained-bubbles-keep-production-rolling-despite-lockdowns[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinese-factories-set-self-contained-bubbles-keep-production-rolling-despite-lockdowns ; Most recently, this has led Chinese authorities to try a new approach. According to the FT, manufacturers across China are preparing to transform their factories into isolated "bubbles" that can continue to operate for weeks, even during government-ordered lockdowns, by forcing workers to quarantine at work instead of at home. The practice reportedly began in southern Guangdong Province, and is presently spreading throughout China. In some cases, hundreds of workers have essentially been forced to live in on-site dormitories - all to keep the production lines rolling. Putting economy first...in a different way....China cases +8%, last 7 days 14,417, the week before 13,294...So China has a problem. Guangdong is bordering Hong Kong-cases there -49%, last 7 days 94,685...the week before 185,854...China only reporting 2 deaths, Hong Kong deaths -20%, last 7 days 1,561-the week before 1,957. The BA.2.2 subvariant as the main reason for this large outbreak...no doubt BA.2.2 could be spreading in mainland China as well... Taiwan cases +63%, last 7 days 805, week before 495...Deaths still 0... [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ close to 1,6 million new cases, trend however -9%, 4,602 deaths reported, trend there -17%... USA [url]https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=social-distancing&tab=trend[/url] or https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=social-distancing&tab=trend how realistic is this projection ? BA.2 (sub)variants on the rise, vaccination protection "limited" at best....US cases -7%, deaths -30%...DJ-I doubt the quality of US reporting....Like many other countries testing, reporting became "sloppy".... Top 5 for global cases still; #1 South Korea 339,396 new cases -12% #2 Germany 276,746 new cases +3% #3 France 143,571 new cases +43% #4 Vietnam 108,979 new cases -28% #5 Italy 75,616 new cases +10% Both [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/deltacron/deltacron-xd-and-xf-recombinants-now-ecdc-variants-under-monitoring/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/deltacron/deltacron-xd-and-xf-recombinants-now-ecdc-variants-under-monitoring/ are warning signs... The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) have added Deltacron recombinants XD and XF to their list of Variants under Monitoring. 22 sequencing samples from France and Denmark have been designated as XD, and 34 samples from the UK have been designated as XF.
DJ, There are 73 countries reporting an increase of cases. Several of them recently did allready have high numbers-often also a lot of vaccinations/boosters... Laos cases +162%, Israel +94% (125,000 of 9,3 million population testing positive last two weeks-BA.2), Taiwan +63%, France +43%, Ireland +35%, Australia (!) +30%, Canada +13%... There are 48 countries reporting an increase of CoViD deaths...however the number of [url]https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid[/url] or https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid may give more info....The "old" definition of dying within 28 days after a positive test may not do a good job any longer... Even (at home) testing should-now-have to include both oral and nasal swab (So in your throat and in your nose). Still often missing as instruction in most countries.... [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/washington-university-study-reveals-that-sars-cov-2-infections-increases-occurrences-of-peripheral-neuropathy-symptoms-and-pain[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/washington-university-study-reveals-that-sars-cov-2-infections-increases-occurrences-of-peripheral-neuropathy-symptoms-and-pain may be part of Long CoViD... [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/george-washington-university-cohort-study-shows-that-aspirin-reduces-mortality-rates-in-hospitalized-patients-with-moderate-covid-19[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/george-washington-university-cohort-study-shows-that-aspirin-reduces-mortality-rates-in-hospitalized-patients-with-moderate-covid-19 ...not the first time aspirin did get mentioned in limiting disease...maybe further study/experience can bring more progress... [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/25/health-council-advises-extra-covid-boosters-people-60[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/25/health-council-advises-extra-covid-boosters-people-60 ; People aged 60 to 69 should also be able to get a second booster shot against the coronavirus, the Health Council advised Minister Ernst Kuipers of Public Health. People from age 70 and vulnerable people have been eligible for a second booster since the end of February. The Health Council does not consider a second booster necessary for healthy adults under age 60 at this time. According to the Health Council, it is also not necessary to continuously maintain the immunity of the entire population by means of periodic booster shots for the coming period. However, the government should make plans for quickly targeting specific groups if it proves necessary. The coronavirus jabs' protection against severe illness and death decreases over time. The Health Council previously advised people over the age of 70 and the most vulnerable groups to get the extra booster shot because they run a higher risk of serious illness. In addition, the number of infections would likely still be high once the protection of the first booster starts to decrease for them. Because the high number of infections caused by the Omicron variant of the coronavirus is lasting longer than expected, the Health Council issued this same advice for people aged 60 to 69. "The protection provided by the booster will have decreased for them went the number of infections is likely still high," the Health Council said. The body also considers it advisable to draw up a special working method whereby specific target groups can quickly be vaccinated if the situation gives cause to so. "For example, in the event of a sharp increase in the number of infections or the emergency of a virus variant that is more pathogenic than the current Omicron variant. DJ, So (booster)vaccinations for high(er) risk groups and testing are the two main "tools" in use-I think in a lot of countries...With increase of vaccinations when a new variant shows up...as allways-AFTER the fact.... The US is now over 1 million deaths-out of a global reported 6,15 million deaths...1-out-of-314 US citizens died from CoViD...I think the global situation most likely is (far) worse...Translating 1-in-314 to a global population of 7,9 billion would see 23 million+ CoViD deaths...However "countries we keep poor" may have had a much higher % of them dying so far...Peru 6,280 deaths per million (0,628% of the Peru population) may be more realistic...Translating that % to a global 7,9 billion results in 49,612,000 deaths...and-again-this pandemic is NOT over...more to come... Why are people surprised as cases start to increase due to the arrival of BA.2 in the US? No variant has skipped us before, why would it now. We even get a pre-warning watching places like the UK. And what did we do this time? Dropped airborne protections and reduced testing. Ugh and South West England Covid Hospital Admissions are approaching their Alpha Wave pre vaccine peak and there is a fair chance they may exceed it. I’m quoting This is absolutely not normal. end of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 26 2022 at 10:12pm |
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DJ For everyone craving getting back to normal, for thousands of years normal involved disease control. We had to avoid disease somehow, or suffer the horrid consequences. Quarantine and other public health measures helped us survive. It’s not normal to have unmitigated disease. and Oh my god Spoke to someone (not a patient) who got a flight back home from a European country last week KNOWINGLY with Covid?!! Just because he didn’t wanted to isolate abroad. So now EVERY SINGLE person on that flight has been exposed & at risk?! and ·  Below is the best way I can think to explain Covid (which attacks epithelial tissue, expressing "ACE2"): If your BODY = a CITY, then COVID = a disease that attacks ALL the concrete and asphalt in that city. Understand the long-term effects now?and After two years of #LongCovid, I’ve developed Stage 3 Kidney disease- on top of my neurological issues. This is ongoing disease process that continues to assault organs. Yet,patients are told: “Go exercise! And have a positive attitude.” We demand and deserve: #TreatLongCovid to illustrate where we are now in this pandemic. "Omicron" is "mild(er then Delta)"...but is a lot like the Alpha variant disease wise-only much more contagious. Two years ago we had a lock down in many places for the "Wild Type/Wuhan" early variant of CoViD...that may have been milder then "Omicron"...we now almost dropped all restrictions.... I do expect we will get variants with high "Omicron-like" spread and "Delta-disease"....In history pandemics may have ended civilizations...Somehow we simply refuse to learn from history..."the economy"..... and This is not going to end well. “Quest Diagnostics, one of the largest testing companies in the country, told ABC News that patients who are not on Medicare, Medicaid or a private health plan will now be charged $125 when using one of its…PCR tests.” just a few other tweets...[url]https://abcnews.go.com/Health/free-covid-19-tests-ending-uninsured-americans/story?id=83649812[/url] or https://abcnews.go.com/Health/free-covid-19-tests-ending-uninsured-americans/story?id=83649812 is beyond crazy.... How you are able to get any kind of view on a pandemic if you do not test ????? US has Omicron BA.2 on its doorstep... I need another coffee, [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daylight_saving_time[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daylight_saving_time meaning people had 1 hour less sleep... End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 26 2022 at 11:44pm |
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part 2, [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps low excess mortality in BeNeLux, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Baltic States...moderate in Italy...info a few weeks old... [url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time ZOE-UK close to 4 million of UK population do show CoViD symptoms [url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/government-funding-announcement[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/government-funding-announcement ;For the last 18 months, the ZOE COVID Study has been funded by the UK Government via UKHSA as one of its key COVID Surveillance Studies. However, from April 2022, the Study will no longer receive this funding. DJ, unwelcome results for the bojo-UK-regime... [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ even with governments trying to decrease testing still 1,250,914 new cases were reported, -11%, 3,102 deaths, -18%...so the trends indicate governments, politics succeed in downplaying the pandemic.... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/france-xd-deltacron-recombinant-update/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/france-xd-deltacron-recombinant-update/ ;DJ, the info-so far-is not that alarming. However evasion of (booster)vaccination may show to be a problem. [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/u-s-cdc-data-reveals-that-those-who-received-only-johnson-&-johnson-shots-more-likely-to-die-during-omicron-wave-compared-to-other-shots[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/u-s-cdc-data-reveals-that-those-who-received-only-johnson-&-johnson-shots-more-likely-to-die-during-omicron-wave-compared-to-other-shots J&J offering less protection-also not new....[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/deltacron/uk-deltacron-xe-may-have-a-growth-rate-10-greater-than-omicron-ba-2/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/deltacron/uk-deltacron-xe-may-have-a-growth-rate-10-greater-than-omicron-ba-2/ ; XE is a combination of BA.1 and BA.2 and is spreading about 10% faster than BA.2 in the UK, with 637 cases identified as of 22 March 2022. may be a bit more alarming...DJ (again) we may end up with variants with "Omicron-like spread" and "Delta-disease".....A virus does not "think" but its "goal" is to produce more virus....So if you do not stop a virus from spreading it will find ways to increase viral-spread...via human and non-human hosts... So we now have lots of different sub-variants, recombinations around...most of them likely will remain small and/or regional...A major problem is in reporting; UK.gov claiming cases -18%, ZOE indicating BA.2.1 may be exploding....Hong Kong cases -50% but is the BA.2.2 now spreading in other east Asian countries ? Philippines cases -17%, is the BA.2.3 variant over its peak ? A trend could be less of one major global wave but more, smaller, regional waves ? Combined Covid and flu is twice as deadly and 4-fold more need for mechanical ventilation than Covid alone https://thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00383-X/fulltext… The increased risk not seen with other co-infections. By and colleagues Coinfections with flu increasing risks...and flu may now show up (a.o. in NL) "out of normal flu-season".... · Thread/ The havoc Covid is wreaking inside the NHS right now has to be seen to be believed. Depressing that the @sajidjavid (and indeed NHS England bosses) are not being open & honest with the public about what's unfolding. This is what is happening: https://bbc.co.uk/news/health-60872687 and This is incorrect. S. Korea isn't an example of failure of suppression. S. Korea adopted 'living with it' in Nov last yr & continued to ease measures even as cases surged. This isn't a failure of suppression strategies- it's a failure of vaccine-only 'living with it' strategies. DJ If politics only is "solving problems" by; -denial -create larger problems -kick the can down the road, time has to do the job/solve the problem again politics is the real problem...."neo-liberalism", privatizing everything you see (even parents/children if they could) is the dominant madness.... Democracy has decaded to "democrazy" in wich denial of problems bring in most votes....Money buying science, news, politics, PR, is a dead end street....literally... End of part 2 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh
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Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 27 2022 at 11:38pm |
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DJ [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ global reported cases dropping under the 1 million ! It has been +1 million due to Omicron for months...South Korea +318,000, France +110,000...Global trend -12% for cases...Yesterday-sunday march 27-did see 2,363 deaths being reported -19%... If those numbers reflected reality it would be very welcome numbers.... China cases -11% (?) still Shanghai going into lockdown...[url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-28/Airports-railways-intl-transport-operate-normally-in-Shanghai-18LlldA90g8/index.html[/url] or https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-28/Airports-railways-intl-transport-operate-normally-in-Shanghai-18LlldA90g8/index.html ; Airports, railways, and international passenger and freight services are operating normally in Shanghai amid COVID-19 surge, local health authorities said on Monday. and [url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-28/Chinese-mainland-records-1-275-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-18LkqzTpHY4/index.html[/url] or https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-28/Chinese-mainland-records-1-275-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-18LkqzTpHY4/index.html ; The Chinese mainland recorded 1,275 new confirmed COVID-19 cases on Sunday, with 1,219 linked to local transmissions and 56 from overseas, according to data from the National Health Commission on Monday. A total of 5,134 new asymptomatic cases were also recorded on Sunday, and 38,649 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation. Confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland now total 144,515, with the death toll at 4,638. DJ Worldometers has 143,240 cases, also 4,638 deaths (but they get their numbers from China...). [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=CHN[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=CHN ; No recent sequences found over the past 60 daysSo is BA.2.2 Omicron now spreading from Hong Kong into China ? Wow—China’s financial hub of Shanghai will lock down the city of 26 million in two stages to carry out #COVID19 testing over 9-days. It will enter lockdown do PCR tests. All transit will stop. All factories will close—companies will work remote if capable. [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-world-news-death-rates-increasing-in-europe-as-eurocron-variant-spreads-exponentially,-china-enforces-phased-lock-downs-for-shanghai[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/covid-19-world-news-death-rates-increasing-in-europe-as-eurocron-variant-spreads-exponentially,-china-enforces-phased-lock-downs-for-shanghai Europe death-trends -11%...however major regional differences. Ireland +167%, last 7 days 72, week before 27 Luxemburg +150% (15, week before 6) Finland +55% (202, 130) Austria +27% (256, 202) NL +22% (105, 86) Germany +15% (1,515, 1,323) Belgium +14% (141, 124) Italy +9% UK +6% however France -10% (political-election-reasons ?) DJ "Omicron is slow" in killing people...if you will use 28 days after testing positive as the criterium you will miss a lot of CoViD deaths...So maybe it is not 100% correct to link an increase of deaths with BA.2 subvariants...allready... [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-american-scientist-from-arkansas-state-university-alerts-scientific-community-of-numerous-ba-2-subvariants-that-have-alarmingly-emerged[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-american-scientist-from-arkansas-state-university-alerts-scientific-community-of-numerous-ba-2-subvariants-that-have-alarmingly-emerged and [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/486[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/486 A BA.2 subvariant; 2,400 sequences-of wich 2,000 from Scotland... a link from Thailand Medical News; lineage BA.2.5Alias of B.1.1.529.2.5, DJ...a.o [url]https://twitter.com/josetteschoenma[/url] or https://twitter.com/josetteschoenma did claim BA.2 should not be seen as "Omicron" but a new variant (of concern...). [url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time showing UK cases going up...UK government claiming cases going down -30%.... TMN making the point that these BA.2.1 to 2.7+ subvariants only can spread because they are getting better in evading immunity (via infection or vaccination).... DJ-If you then decrease testing/reporting and try to keep the pandemic out of the news (by starting yet another war...)...you are moving towards further worsening of the pandemic... -Worsening the many crises we allready face [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/03/from-a-miocene-like-co2-level-of-420-ppm-to-irreversible-climate-change.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/03/from-a-miocene-like-co2-level-of-420-ppm-to-irreversible-climate-change.html ; It is possible that climate change could have been arrested in the 1960s had global efforts been directed at the time for abrupt cuts in emissions, transformation of agricultural and land clearing practices, and effort at COโ drawdown/sequestration. By the onset of the 21st century however, such efforts have hardly been undertaken and could yet turn out to be too late. The repetitions of humanity’s old warlike habits, investing resources in industries of death, genocidal wars associated with intensive carbon emissions, forecast in “The Fate of the Earth”, yield little promise for a change of direction. DJ, So like in climate collapse in this pandemic "damage control" may be the "best available option"...but-like in climate collapse-we simply deny the problem... "economy first" will kill us all...pandemic=profit oppertunity.... So, -Govt buys £122m of PPE -From company linked to Tory Peer -Company had paid £46m for it -And PPE was useless You couldn’t make it up Remarkable story by โฆ link [url]https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/27/government-paid-firm-linked-to-tory-peer-122m-for-ppe-bought-for-46m?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/mar/27/government-paid-firm-linked-to-tory-peer-122m-for-ppe-bought-for-46m?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 28 2022 at 11:03pm |
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DJ, "One car is a technical miracle. almost ten million cars-here in NL-are a total disaster"...to start a discussion on the roots of the present-far from over-pandemic... One of the reasons for "climate collapse" (a factor in increase of pandemic risks) is the "lack of balance" in "what we do and how we do it"... Do you have a "profit-central-society" or a "people-central society"? My idea is that "profit" totally did get out of balance, "economy first" even if that would cost tens of millions human lives per year...(We are allready at the millions of lives per year-"living with it", airpolution, traffic/industrial accidents, extreme weather, diseases...). What is "normal", or "acceptable" and who decides on that ? [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/deaths/global-sars-cov-2-deaths-at-lowest-level-since-march-2020/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/deaths/global-sars-cov-2-deaths-at-lowest-level-since-march-2020/ ; The global death rate from SARS-CoV-2 is plummeting. The death toll from the coronavirus on 27th March 2022 was just 2,309 according OWD. That’s the lowest figure since March 24th 2020, at the very beginning of the pandemic. DJ-Translation; By sticking to "death within 4 weeks after a positive test" and a lack of testing/reporting we now see "lowest numbers since 2020"..... [url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time ; This chart shows the number of people calculated to have COVID symptoms on each day since the 11th June 2020. has 4,204,375 people in the UK per march 27 showing symptoms...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ showing UK 1,837,111 "active cases" (on a population of 68,5 million). BOTH numbers simply indicate for the UK the pandemic is not over... Worldometers (corrected) numbers now showing both weekend days had over 1 million new cases reported...Global trend for cases now at -10%, deaths -20%... But definitions matter..."CoViD-death" is getting less and less clear...It may be welcome to have numbers of how people testing positive are half a year later, a year later... By some definitions symptoms after 6 weeks go for "long CoViD"...but people stuck in long term health problems for over a year may see things differently... European cases -2%, only region with increase of cases is Oceania +13%...66 countries reporting an increase of cases Israel +50%, France +43% Taiwan +40%...however Angola +56% and some other southern African countries also show-limited- numbers going up....DRC (Congo) also +43%, in SE Asia Laos +105%...Australia, Canada +20%... India cases -26%...from close to 15,000-ALL of last week to just over 11,000 last 7 days...so all of India would have less then 1,800 cases per day ? China now even has higher numbers ( just over 12,000 last 7 days) but also claiming -20% for cases... DJ Again I would love to believe those numbers.... [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/sars-cov-2-new-recombinants-designated-xg-xh-xj-xk-and-xl/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/recombination/sars-cov-2-new-recombinants-designated-xg-xh-xj-xk-and-xl/ ; SARS_CoV-2 recombinants are being designated almost on a daily basis now. These are the latest strains: XG: New lineage with 140 new sequence designations. Potential BA.1/BA.2 Recombinant Lineage with Likely Breakpoint at NSP3 (107 Sequences in Denmark, UK, US and Germany as of 2022/03/02). Link XH: new lineage with 42 new sequence designations. Potential BA.1/BA.2 Recombinant Lineage with Likely Breakpoint at NSP5/NSP6 (43 Sequences in Denmark). Link XJ: new lineage with 17 new sequence designations. BA.1/BA.2 recombinant lineage in Finland [66 seq as of 2022-03-25]. Link XK: new lineage with 15 new sequence designations. Potential recombined BA.2-BA.1.1 lineage in 22 (1.4%) sequences in Roeselare, Belgium characterized by ORF1b:Q866R and ORF1a:R1628C with BA.2 background and ORF1a (2832-10029) and ORF1b (160464-18163) from BA.1.1 (ORF1b:Q866R). Link XL: new lineage XL with 38 new sequence designations. Potential BA.1/BA.2 Recombinant Lineage with Likely Breakpoint at NSP3 (38 Seqs in UK as of 2022-03-16). Link It’s fairly safe to say we can expect many more virus recombinants in the future… but we may not "know them by giving them a name"; statistics could give further info...but only if you have good statistics... On top of that some now see BA.2.1 to BA.2.7 subvariants..."Eurocron" (BA.2.2 with s1210t mutation)...now [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/489[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/489 Delta-Omicron recombinant in Mexico.... "The right way to respond to an unknown disease is to fix a goal and work towards it, adjusting your strategy as you learn. Because there’s another unknown in the equation, human determination, no response should be ruled out initially. and Interesting strategy: Air surveillance for Covid, among other places perhaps helpful in Shanghai now, complementing individual testing with location testing. (ignore poor mask quality in video) https://thermofisher.com/us/en/home/industrial/environmental/in-air-pathogen-surveillance.html as a strategy-replacing individual testing...Can be combined with sewage/waste water sampling... DJ-Even if lower statistics would indicate the present pandemic is "paused" we should not give up on surveilance ! I do think this pandemic is getting worse...due to high spread=high level of mutation=high level of immunity selection... We may need BETTER ways of large scale testing....(via air/sewage) to relate findings there with in/de-crease of illness/symptoms... [url]https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/28/no-covid-approach-bad-press-but-worked[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/28/no-covid-approach-bad-press-but-worked If you want "freedom for the virus" maybe give up on public health.... otherwise public health means trying to limit (spread of) disease ! End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 29 2022 at 11:33pm |
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DJ, Statistics are the "easy part" of a/this pandemic...[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/scientists-say-that-sars-cov-2-could-be-a-superantigen-and-that-further-urgent-studies-are-needed-for-validation[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/scientists-say-that-sars-cov-2-could-be-a-superantigen-and-that-further-urgent-studies-are-needed-for-validation is the far more complicated one.... [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superantigen[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superantigen ; Superantigens (SAgs) are a class of antigens that result in excessive activation of the immune system. Specifically it causes non-specific activation of T-cells resulting in polyclonal T cell activation and massive cytokine release. SAgs are produced by some pathogenic viruses and bacteria most likely as a defense mechanism against the immune system.[1] Compared to a normal antigen-induced T-cell response where 0.0001-0.001% of the body's T-cells are activated, these SAgs are capable of activating up to 20% of the body's T-cells.[2] Furthermore, Anti-CD3 and Anti-CD28 antibodies (CD28-SuperMAB) have also shown to be highly potent superantigens (and can activate up to 100% of T cells). DJ-What I make of it-to put it very simple-In Sars-2/CoViD superantigens may result in the immunesystem not doing enough or going into overdrive after infection...This could result also in auto-immune disease....The TMN article has several links to studies.... DJ ME-CVS and (other ?) auto-immune diseases may be related... -Another point [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/deer/us-delta-variant-found-in-utah-mule-deer/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/animals/deer/us-delta-variant-found-in-utah-mule-deer/ ; “On March 22, the APHIS’ National Veterinary Services Lab in Ames, Iowa confirmed a case of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in one of the samples submitted from a female mule deer in Morgan County. Only one deer tested positive for the virus from the nasal samples, but several other Utah deer had the antibodies in their blood samples, indicating the virus had been in the deer population prior to the capture.” Officials don’t yet know how the deer were originally exposed to the virus and are investigating further to determine whether it was from another animal or a human. DJ With a further link to ;[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/zoonosis/preprint-highly-divergent-lineage-of-sars-cov-2-in-deer-with-potential-deer-to-human-transmission/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/zoonosis/preprint-highly-divergent-lineage-of-sars-cov-2-in-deer-with-potential-deer-to-human-transmission/ ; Phylogenetic analysis revealed an epidemiologically linked human case from the same geographic region and sampling period. Together, our findings represent the first evidence of a highly divergent lineage of SARS-CoV-2 in white-tailed deer and of deer-to-human transmission. Preprint: Highly divergent white-tailed deer SARS-CoV-2 with potential deer-to-human transmission DJ, Animals eating dead deers, or people eating deer not prepared well enough, may be able to catch a mutated variant of CoViD-19...(Again I am NOT an expert, just trying to make some sense of it all....). This would result in new variants spreading further both in human and non-human hosts....(and that is bad !). [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-can-infect-and-replicate-in-retinal-cells/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-can-infect-and-replicate-in-retinal-cells/ ; SARS-CoV-2 infects retinal cells, especially retinal ganglion cells, but also light-sensitive cells. A collaborative team of researchers led by Thomas Rauen and Hans Schöler of the Max Planck Institute for Molecular Biomedicine and virologist Stephan Ludwig of the Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster has now decided to utilize organoids – an organ-like model system – of the retina from human reprogrammed stem cells to study Sars-CoV-2 infection of the retina. According to the study, Sars-CoV-2 actually infects retinal cells, especially retinal ganglion cells, but also light-sensitive cells. Furthermore, the researchers show that coronaviruses can also replicate in these cell types. This finding is new and underlines the need to monitor retinal pathologies as a possible consequence of ‘Long Covid’. DJ-Also not new....in the sense that we knew CoViD may spread via eye-infections...But that it also would do damage to the eye itself may be new...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/significant-abnormalities-found-in-the-eyes-of-some-patients-with-severe-covid-19/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/significant-abnormalities-found-in-the-eyes-of-some-patients-with-severe-covid-19/ related... DJ-here in scenario's I try to get a realistic view on this pandemic...the best I can-hope to limit both "hopium" and non-sense...(So feel free to correct me if I end up writing that kind of things...MSM is already full of it !) With a high level of viral spread, often hardly interventions (except vaccines-however of the 70+ in NL only 1-in-3 did go for a fourth vaccine), lots of sub-variants, able to infect via more routes then only ACE-2 receptors (itself allready all over the body) and by now very likely most of the spread in non-human hosts (mice, rats, bats....) I am not "very optimistic"..... "Politics" putting economy above both climate and public health has us ending up living both with climate collapse and this pandemic....It looks like "democrazies" doing a very bad job-only look for a next election...do not want to see long term consequences of the choices they make.... -So a look at numbers; [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues some recent posts deleted ? [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ just over 1,5 million new cases, -11%, 4,047 deaths-21%.... US just under 24,000 new cases, India 1,233...these are not serious numbers... End of part 1 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 30 2022 at 9:22am |
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part 2, some tweets; "living with the virus" as a way to "normal" is not working. Businesses should recognize that investing in elimination is the exit strategy. Is this it? More than half of workers still not returning to office, according to gauge -link [url]https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-this-it-more-than-half-of-workers-still-not-returning-to-office-according-to-gauge-11648640078[/url] or https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-this-it-more-than-half-of-workers-still-not-returning-to-office-according-to-gauge-11648640078 Please share widely. People being told Covid reinfections are safe or even an immune advantage are unfortunately going to find out it is instead cutting down their lifespan and not by a small amount. - · Contrary to what revisionists on twitter will tell you, reinfections will reduce life expectancy. People die from reinfections? It reduces life expectancy tangibly. Goes against the 'boosting immunity' tripe DJ, There may be different sorts of mis-informing people; propaganda to push them into a war they would never accept with the correct info...but also "seeking immunity via infection", when it results in serious health risks... Can someone tell me why the govts have a 'rule' in place to not count positivity as a reinfection within 90 days, especially considering BA.2 is reinfecting many people who've had BA.1? DJ, downplaying the pandemic...denyal of a pandemic... [url]https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-covid-situation-in-china-continues-to-deteriorate-20220330/[/url] or https://www.forexlive.com/news/the-covid-situation-in-china-continues-to-deteriorate-20220330/ ; Shanghai is grappling with a ballooning covid outbreak that threatens its growth targets and global supply chains. Of the record 8655 cases reported today, 5982 were reported among Shanghai's 25 million residents. Authorities will start a two-phase lockdown that is a U-turn from previously rejecting a lockdown. At the time of the initial announcement, markets cheered the moves to keep factories open but now that decision is looking less wise. Coupled with that, a editorial in Xinhua today reaffirmed China's commitment to "dynamic zero-covid" and said Xi had personally drawn up the policy and led the fight. “Ever since epidemic prevention and control became the norm, General Secretary Xi Jinping has personally directed the deployment of epidemic prevention and control work, and established the general strategy to prevent imported cases and internal rebounds and the general policy of dynamic zero-Covid,” the editorial said. It will be tough for him to pivot but the odds are increasing of a Hong Kong-like outcome where the virus explodes and causes a huge jump in fatalities. If it's not now in Hong Kong, other cases throughout the country are sure to create more outbreaks. The bulk of the remainder of the cases are in Jilin provice, where two cities have been under lockdown for two weeks. The silver lining is that after a brutal two months, cases are now rapidly declining in Hong Kong. The latest reading was just under 7600 from a peak of over 50,000 early this month. DJ, If Hong Kong recent experience with BA.2.2 would be the coming experience of China you are talking of (hundreds of) millions of cases and a very high number of deaths...even as most of China may do better in vaccinating/testing then Hong Kong did. COVID-19: Less than two-thirds of people self-isolating after testing positive for coronavirus, figures show https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-less-than-two-thirds-of-people-self-isolating-after-testing-positive-for-coronavirus-figures-show-12577325 DJ," Freedom-day "seems to have been meant for the virus....[url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time cases still going up...moving to 4,5 million active UK cases... For those that would still doubt it: yes, BA.2 will cause cases and hospitalisations to start rising again in the US... Only question is how big the peak will become... Vaccination rates much lower than in Europe but also more prior exposure... and BA.2 projections from weeks ago holding up well to new CDC data. BA.2 slightly outperforming model. Daily BA.2 cases increasing 40% week/week. Model predicts total cases will bottom out 3/30 then start raising. #MathWorks Show this thread DJ, US trend for cases -9%, deaths -33%...not only will BA.2 cases increase, new subvariants (also in deer ?) may further change the outlook... BREAKING: Number of Americans hospitalized with COVID-19 drops to 15,211, lowest since March 2020 and New York state reports 2,400 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 60% from last week For Asia; BREAKING: South Korea reports 424,641 new coronavirus cases and 432 new deaths and Shanghai reports 5,982 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase on record DJ, Both South Korea and China will see economic effects of the pandemic...on top of "the global situation-effects"... England  It’s Christmas every 3 months now see [url]https://twitter.com/Gab_H_R/status/1508894878251593740/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/Gab_H_R/status/1508894878251593740/photo/1 NL Netherlands - Mass infection of elders  This is disgusting. DJ See [url]https://twitter.com/Gab_H_R/status/1509143207455727617/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/Gab_H_R/status/1509143207455727617/photo/1 62% of NL care centers now did see recent CoViD cases still NL news swing between [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/29/coronavirus-infections-29-towards-2022-low-new-hospital-admissions-fall[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/29/coronavirus-infections-29-towards-2022-low-new-hospital-admissions-fall ; The number of people who tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus fell to the lowest point since the first full week of the year. Weekly data from the RIVM showed that 222,366 people learned they were infected with the coronavirus during the seven-day period ending Tuesday morning. That total was 29 percent lower compared to the previous week, bringing per capita infections down to 1,264 per 100,000 residents. and [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/28/covid-hospital-total-highest-point-90-days-infections-slashed-half-since-march-11[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/28/covid-hospital-total-highest-point-90-days-infections-slashed-half-since-march-11 ; Hospitals in the Netherlands were treating 2,051 patients with Covid-19 on Monday afternoon, the highest total reported by the LCPS since December 24. The figure rose by 120 after accounting for new admissions, discharges and deaths. It has remained above 1,800 since March 14, periodically bouncing above the 2,000 mark. At the same time, the intensive care units were treating 135 patients with the disease, a net decrease of 20. The ICU tally was at its lowest point since October 10. It has remained below 200 for nearly seven weeks. The other 1,916 patients were in regular care wards, an increase of 140 since Sunday. Those hospital departments were treating the most patients with the coronavirus disease since mid-December.https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/30/weather-office-issues-snow-storm-warning-netherlands DJ, By the way [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/30/weather-office-issues-snow-storm-warning-netherlands[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/03/30/weather-office-issues-snow-storm-warning-netherlands ; Dutch meteorological institute KNMI issued its first warning for the snowstorm expected to hit on Thursday. The snowfall is expected to cause dangerous conditions on the roads, prompting the warning. We hardly had any (serious) snow here last winter...so now in spring-april 1-we may get a short-one day-winter ! Most of Europe may see some cold days...including Ukraine... [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/university-of-kansas-study-shockingly-reveals-that-the-envelope-protein-of-sars-cov-2-potently-inhibits-hiv-1-infection[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/university-of-kansas-study-shockingly-reveals-that-the-envelope-protein-of-sars-cov-2-potently-inhibits-hiv-1-infection ...try to get more info on that tomorrow.... End of part 2 |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group
Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95547 |
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Posted: March 31 2022 at 2:31am |
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DJ, Both [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/university-of-cambridge-study-confirms-that-antibodies-from-prior-common-coronavirus-infections-do-not-effectively-cross-react-with-sars-cov-2-nor-cau[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/university-of-cambridge-study-confirms-that-antibodies-from-prior-common-coronavirus-infections-do-not-effectively-cross-react-with-sars-cov-2-nor-cau se ADE and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/university-of-kansas-study-shockingly-reveals-that-the-envelope-protein-of-sars-cov-2-potently-inhibits-hiv-1-infection[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/university-of-kansas-study-shockingly-reveals-that-the-envelope-protein-of-sars-cov-2-potently-inhibits-hiv-1-infection may be major...I do not have enough knowledge to say much about it... HIV and ADE did get mentioned more then once as having a link with (some variants of) CoViD...My impression is science itself is still trying to find out how "it works out/ is related"... Update 2: several further BA.1 x BA.2 recombinants have been assigned by Pango. Interestingly all have breakpoints in ORF1ab. - XG is the largest (Mostly in Denmark), ~120 sequences - XH, XJ, XK, XL are all currently <100 sequences Also how recombinations (in all kind of forms) may work out is a major question...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues 491, 492 may be new forms of BA.2 (Lithuania, France)... France cases +31%, deaths +15%, Lithuania cases -29%, deaths +6% may give some indications.... DJ-In general mutations/recombinations in most cases will result in a weaker variant...but given the high spread maybe by the time new forms get detected they may not be that weak...At the end we may see new (sub)variants getting better in evading (or using) immunity to increase spread...A virus want to reproduce and needs hosts to do it in... Those variants best able to spread (via reinfection/evading immunity and higher viral load) will end up dominant.... DJ-Again-I am NOT an expert-just trying to make some sense, see some basic logics... [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ global reported cases now at 1,573,926 -13%, deaths at 4,262 trend -19% However the numbers hardly give a global indication... South Korea reporting 424,528 new cases, -16%, 432 deaths +2%....On a population of 51,4 million South Korea did see over 5 million cases the last two weeks-around 10% of its population getting infected...Just above 4,800 deaths...[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=KOR[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=KOR "BA.2" without a further mention of the subvariant now at 25%-latest info from march 3...So BA.2 will be dominant by now...and if it is a "Hong Kong" BA.2.2. sub-type it may result in further high level of deaths... UK is now supposed to have just over 1,9 million active cases...however [url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time may be more realistic with 4,5 million...(on a UK population of 68,5 million...). The UK would be dealing with the BA.2.1 subvariant...cases -17%, deaths +22%...Scotland seeing record number of hospital cases...Last 7 days UK reporting 1,064 deaths-the week before 875... 16) UPDATE—new data supports mixing up the vaccines regimen when it comes to getting boosters. Moderna and Pfizer, while both mRNA, do have different immunity properties. Vaccinating with both may hold benefits compared to exclusively with one. DJ, I did get two of each one...still limiting risks though....Eric Feigl-Ding also trying to follow China...(he did write this article) [url]https://medriva.com/china-at-a-covid-tipping-point/#gs.v9jvup[/url] or https://medriva.com/china-at-a-covid-tipping-point/#gs.v9jvup ; I have a sinking feeling again… a bad feeling I had 2 years ago, when Wuhan was in a state of panic trying to control the initial outbreak, that the events in China could ripple across the world. I hope I am wrong, but here is why I have this same feeling again… As of today, mainland China now has city-wide COVID-19 lockdowns in effect in:
Altogether, there’s currently over 50 million residents of major cities under strict, stay at home, lockdown, plus almost 40 million more in partial lockdown, plus additional smaller medium cities also in varying degrees of lockdown. Thus, well over 90 million people in China have their daily activities restricted because of the new COVID surge. As result, China’s stock market so far this week has seen some of the largest drops in recent memory. - Moreover, shipping vessels have even stopped departing from Shanghai as a port! This is damn serious—Shanghai is one of the largest ports in the entire world! Along with the lockdown in Shenzhen and adjacent Dongguan, China’s disruption could mean that the world’s supply chain might completely melt down for a period. Already, Apple supplier FoxConn has announced it is suspending all its factories in Shenzhen, among countless other critical technically and industrial factories. While temporary suspensions and brief lockdowns have occurred before, the potential scale of this BA2 wave is massive, and like HK experts warn, could be very long and extensive. - Indeed, Shenzhen health official Lin Hancheng warned that this BA2 strain is “highly contagious, spreads quickly and has a high degree of concealment“, which can lead to widespread community transmission if control measures are not strengthened soon. This “high concealment” statement has never been used during the 2 year pandemic before and likely suggests something about BA2 that Chinese officials have realized. We should take it seriously. - Furthermore, China isn’t alone in this mess. South Korea I’m now confident that BA2 definitely deserves its own distinct Greek letter, separate or Omicron family. BA1 and BA2 are more different than Delta is from original Wuhan 1.0 strain. And the infectiousness and attack rates don’t lie —BA2 is worse by leaps and bounds. The WHO needs to act to reclassify BA2 as a new distinct variant of concern. And so does China need to act even faster to increase vaccinations as well as mitigations, and so does the rest of the world need to wake up that they are not immune from BA2 despite a recent BA1 wave. I believe China is now teetering at the edge between barely containing BA2 wave of COVID-19 and completely losing control like it has in Hong Kong—which we know could spell horrible conditions outcomes and huge economic difficulties and disruption to the most critical manufacturing and export centers of the world. Thus, this bodes extremely poorly for the rest of the global supply chain crisis and economic stability. And it could even spillover into the Russian-Ukraine driven inflation crisis. What happens in China over the coming weeks will affect the world. COVID is not over — with the world acting slowly only further endangering the world. DJ So, BA.2 also dominant in the US now...cases -4%, deaths -23% (with numbers not very realistic...).. This pandemic may see numbers go up again-unless testing totally fails....Economic damage will be "bad"....in combination with western sanctions destroying the global economy, climate collapse...outlook "not good".... I will not speculate (further) on "how bad it can get".... Most likely no part 2 today...stay safe and sane... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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roni3470
Adviser Group
Joined: August 30 2006 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 5390 |
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Posted: March 31 2022 at 8:04am |
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I also just read on Twitter from a doctor I trust that Englands BA2 wave has now caused more hospitalizations than the last omicron wave. When you combine all this news, I also think the new hashtags for covid is not over, is exactly correct! |
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is also see an epic surge![https://raw.githubusercontent.com/lenaschimmel/desh-data/main/plots/omicron_N_linear.png[/url]](https://raw.githubusercontent.com/lenaschimmel/desh-data/main/plots/omicron_N_linear.png[/url]){kind=link}
