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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

scenario's

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ksc View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 14 2020 at 12:51pm

Zerocred=concise? If you believe a Russian propaganda site is a source of "concise" information concerning the US, well.... I don't know what to say.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 14 2020 at 12:53pm

By the way, most of those links are dead.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 14 2020 at 11:40pm

Tabitha111-thanks for your appreciation, ksc-the links are supposed to be alive when I post them...

Peak Prosperity (PP) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZI0JJXIRUw[/url]

-In (tested) cases 1/3 of all cases are in US in deaths 1/5 (DJ this has many sides-the US is good in testing/the real number of both cases and deaths is way much higher)

-Looking at cases/deaths per million the US is somewere in the middle (DJ-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] Spain, Italy over 300 tested positive deaths per million US 79)

-Chris Martenson is a pathologist-so looking at reasons for dying is his science. Hemorage in the lung-bloodvessel area is the main cause of deaths. Lungtissue  and bloodvessels to the lung are further destroyed by the heart pumping extra blood trying to get oxygen into the blood. (DJ-Other organs fail 1-because of lack of oxygen 2-because they also have ACE2 receptors that are targets vor the corona-virus)

-PP also has something to say on the Fed-bailing out the rich. Stockmarkets going up does NOT mean economy going up-it means the Fed is buying up the stocks. Oilprice is low-20/25$ (DJ Also interestrates are low-who is willing to invest ?)

Of course "average Joe" is not being helped by stocks going up-he/she needs food on the table, roof above the head, schools, healthcare....

DJ-In Dutch news-our government was warned 3 times since 2014 for pandemic risks-prepare, seek international cooperation-they did nothing with that-goes for most countries. 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/new-jersey-quietly-issues-withholding-of-care-rules-to-justify-killing-patients[/url] Triage is a last resort to keep up some basic healthcare-hard choices...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-state-department-cables-warned-potential-sars-pandemic-after-visiting-wuhan-lab[/url]

China did ask the US for help in 2017, 2018 in their research for SARS-bats-also here no action from the US


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 15 2020 at 1:31am

ksc-some propaganda for you [url]https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1586933608-595673991/press-review/[/url] North Korea press-covid19 "not a problem" in the DPRK. Of course-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_North_Korea[/url] reality is more complex. NK did not get infections from South Korea- the DMZ-border is closing that way. The China-NK border is more open-with some cross border trade, tourism from China, smuggling from China to NK. But the Chinese border provinces with NK do have limited Covid19 cases. Recent China is seeing an increase of imported cases from Russia in the NE border area (Wladivostok) and that is near the Russia-China-NK border. 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/04/debunking-some-ideas-about-the-virus.html[/url] DJ-Undercounting the real number of cases, deaths (most likely with the goal to "restart the economy") is a "new normal" around the globe. It would be wiser to use the present time for organizing a "new normal" to at least restart parts of the economy with minimum health risks. 

MoA is asking were and when this virus started. On this forum also people mention health issues last november-long lasting cough, unusual cold. Are we now in a "second wave" already ? [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-will-be-hit-second-coronavirus-wave-november-top-shanghai-clinical-expert-warns[/url] with another wave november/december ?

[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/04/the-mercury-is-on-rise-across-india-as.html[/url] Forget lockdowns during summer/heatwaves, [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/new-study-exposes-more-evidence-summer-wont-stop-coronavirus[/url] Warmer weather will not stop Covid19. 

DJ-In my opinion Covid19 is "here to stay" we will have to adapt to it-and other illnesses on its way. Just like we have to adapt to climate change (still getting worse-the CO2 will do its job in the atmosphere the coming years-even if human activity slows down dramaticly). As social humans we have to change the way we survive. 

-social distancing-with some exceptions for mental health-will be the new norm

-to keep a basic economy going governments/UN etc. will have to step in. The economic damage is becoming that big-not only in losses but also in depreciations of major parts of the economy. There may be no future left for airliners, most aircraft manufacturers and car industry, energysector etc. Most companies go bankrupt or become "zombie companies" (banks) kept alive by governments.

-Vitamin C, D3 boosting health, immunity-and education on that has to be a priority

-Permanent education via the internet will be a new normal (for all-we all have to adapt to this new "live")

-Birth rates will drop-governments will try to get more grip on who will get babies

Basiclly we-as humans-will be facing a struggle for survival as human species. The economic consequences of not being able to "go back" (or else face new waves of infections) are that major it will even do "more damage" than Covid19. (There is already a food crisis-it will only get worse[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/04/locust-numbers-exploding-swarms-gather.html[/url] )

Foodcrises in the past did start the French revolution, Arab spring etc. a global foodcrisis even far bigger than we have seen in the past will bring "major changes"-some sort of global dictatorship ? 

Even with a Covid19-vaccin available in 2021 most of the damage is coming (much) earlier. (It is like start wearing a seat belt AFTER the crash)

PP-start a garden advise is proberbly a good idea-when you are able to make it heatwave-safe.

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 15 2020 at 1:39am

Not sure why these aren't working

This www.moonofalabama.org page can’t be found

No webpage was found for the web address: https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/04/debunking-some-ideas-about-the-virus.html[/url]/

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 15 2020 at 2:28am

Ksc.... the links are not working because there seems to be a fault in the forum software where by it adds the code "[/url]" to the end of the actual link.  

To get around it open the link a new tab. 

This will give you an error ("page not found" etc)

Go to the part where the link in full is shown  (in Firefox it is at the top of the screen).  Go to the end of the link information and delete the "[/url]" bit.

I hope this works for you.  [ps It is good that you want to check on the information for yourself]

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 15 2020 at 2:36am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 15 2020 at 3:18am

Thank you EdwinSM, and thank you ksc-at leat copy/paste the links works if there is a technical issue...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 15 2020 at 11:40pm

Peak Prosperity [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vtX0s-nHKo&list=PLRgTUN1zz_oeQpnJxpeaEkFimDeepqyWf[/url]

-looking at statistics; US CFR is going up to over 4% (so all of the tested positive cases over 4% have a deadly outcome) with increased testing the numbers were supposed to go down-not up !

-looking at "outcome ratio" less than 80% "recover" over 20% die (DJ-That is terrible.....horror)

-Recovery leaves patients often with kidney damage, other organs, nerves could be (permanently) damaged

-In China, Singapore lifting of strict rules result in (sharp) increase of cases-so new lock downs (DJ-Often-maybe sometimes things are organized so the new cases stay low)

-The UK +6000 deaths above "normal" in 1 week, NYC +5000 deaths above normal in 1 week-with less car accidents, crime etc 

From min.33 Economy/Food

-Meat production-working elbow-to-elbow=lots of cases=no meat

-Also  transportation/distribution problematic

-Demand drop for oil=80% worldwide (????)

-Banks are only at the beginning of seeing effects (DJ-and will be blown away when "the Covid19hammer hits them")

[url]https://www.visualcapitalist.com/the-feds-balance-sheet-the-other-exponential-curve/[/url]

DJ-PP yesterday-and earlier, mentioned the federal reserve [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve[/url] "creating 2 trillion" (with another 4.000.000.000.000.000 (000 ???)possibly as extra reserve) in my opinion asking for [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation[/url]

PP-The balancing act is slowing down economy to stop the spread but not destroying the economy to keep a basic society (and healthcare) going. DJ-Lifting NPI/lockdowns to early will bring back the spread of the virus. When Singapore, China notice they see it coming back the EU/US should think again on what is wisdom. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_North_Korea[/url] DJ-North Korea is a brutal dictatorship but-by isolation and so far-may have managed to keep Covid19 numbers low and-so far-maybe even under control. (The wikipedia-link has good further links-most info from South Korea, US etc).

-no international travel (even fertiliser from China stopped)

-proberbly very limited internal travel

-testing and 40 days quarantine+30 days observation of the few detected cases

DJ-Since the NK regime depends on controling/preventing any outbreak-they may not survive as a regime themselves-there is a strong motivation and a security organization to enforce the rules. 

Brings the question-how far are we willing to go-what is reasonable and what are the costs.

-Stopping air- and public-transport all over the globe for two years would cost lots of billions, after those two years maybe 10% of 2019 flights (?) -so writing of almost all civil aircraft, aircraft industry....or can we even think of "going back to 100% of 2019 flights and risk another global outbreak ?

-Schools may be reorganized the Danmark way-children 2 meters from eachother=less than 20 children per class, restaurants can also introduce social distancing but most of them will not be able to make profits, working from home as a new normal-and otherwise with masks, distancing-again on a global scale costing billions...

-Healthcare(education) will need billions to be ready for new virus outbreaks etc.  

-Again this scenario only for the rich countries-other countries most likely "have to sit out"Covid19 (a horror scenario-with people trying to get to safety if they can......)

-Covid19-virus may go dormant inside some bodyparts/tissues and reappear (even after years ???) after a while showing up "as reinfection"

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/china-launches-survey-learn-more-about-asymptomatic-cases[/url]

DJ-From PP there is a difference between A-symptomatic and PRE-symptomatic the PRE-group will show symptoms later on. "Mild"cases may be very ill but do not need/get to hospital (only in hospital cases are counted as "severe"). Again now also Dutch research suggest the milder the case the less antibodies-the higher the risk of reinfection. 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/moscows-communists-warn-there-will-be-mass-starvation-and-protests-coronavirus-slams[/url] DJ-Moscow (Russia) may become another NYC-foodprices going up-lots of incomes going down will bring escalation

In short; We underestimated the virus and may now have to pay an economic prize that could end up destroying the economy. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 16 2020 at 12:53am

Thanks Josh. 


 I too noticed that the USA CFR had gone over 4%.  I think this is of concern as I thought the USA was doing relatively well on testing compared to many other Western Countries.

For comparison, from badly hit areas, the CFR for Spain is over 10%; and for Italy and the UK it is over 12%.

Also from Europe, the CFR for Germany is about 2.5% and for Switzerland (hard hit from neihbouring Italy) is 3.5%.

- - - -

About the posibility of air travel being off for two years....this probably means I won't get to see my children (in the UK) for a long long while.   For me one of the real down sides of all the lock downs.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 16 2020 at 2:01am

EdwinSM -It is my estimate (large scale) air traffick needs to be down for a longer period-not "any official policy yet". Both airlines and politicians will try to avoid being open on these things. Airlines (etc) face bankruptcy-banks will try to limit damages and de-invest in airlines (I think). Politicians try to stay optimistic-promiss a return to "some form of normal" when they know this virus is "hard to control". (DJ-I do believe it may be hard to find a vaccin for corona-virus-if it was possible there would be profit in vaccins against colds. Problems could be A-vaccins worsen healthissues B-do not protect long enough to be usefull C-With colds adeno-virus, corona-virus (and others ?) give colds. Covid19 may mutate that much vaccins do not provide enough safety. One of the manny discussions is on does a "light" infection with no symptoms give immunity-via antibodies. The-very sad, bad answer seems "No".)

But again this is all me having a big mouth-I am not a scientist. 

In Dutch news-but interesting for most western countries;

-40% of (Health) Care workers may have been infected

-3% of blooddonors were infected (so forget about herd immunity)

-In week 14 (march 30-april 5) deaths in care centers doubled-week 10 had 797 deaths, week 14 had 1485 deaths

-Also in households 2336 to 3552 in week 14 (DJ 1200+700 extra deaths in 1 week=almost 2000 deaths extra the official Covid deaths for NL =3134 march and april15-under reporting must be large)

-The Dutch CDC RIVM reports R0 close-just above 1-in itself good, but leaves little room for less rules

-First three months Rotterdam (#1 port of Europe) saw a decrease of 20% in activity, flower export decreased over 90%

-Still Polish people coming to NL for (seasonal) work in glasshouses, agriculture etc. (Good=food production, bad=spread risk virus)

DJ-The effects on banks, financial system is on its way and will come soon and very hard. 

By the way-drought is already getting a problem in NL/NW Europe-we have hardly had any rain for almost a month

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 16 2020 at 8:21am

Originally posted by EdwinSm, EdwinSm, wrote:

 I too noticed that the USA CFR had gone over 4%.  I think this is of concern as I thought the USA was doing relatively well on testing compared to many other Western Countries.


That's a myth from what I've read.  The only western countries the U.S. seems to be doing more testing is countries like Sweden and England who are going on the premise of developing herd immunity.  Other than that, every thing I have read is that the U.S. is abysmal at testing which is why we're having such problems gaining the upper hand and getting behind the curve of this virus so we can be pro-active instead of reactive.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 16 2020 at 11:05am

You are!

But the UK is WORSE!   I don't know a word for worse than abysmal - but I need one.  Sub-abysmal?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 16 2020 at 1:12pm

Is this a competition ? Looking at the numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url]

Per million; US=10,194 UK=6,152 NL 8,634 Brazil, India are "sub-abysmal"! Germany, Switzerland, Portugal, Israel all over 20.000 tests per million.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 16 2020 at 1:18pm

LOL, I think it might be a competition.  Sub, sub abysmal?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 16 2020 at 10:24pm

DJ-The problem with testing is that one may test negative-but get the virus after testing. Results of testing-even with good tests-are limited. (And I understand that taking a nasal swab could miss a point were the virus is-so you get the wrong result with a good test.)

Dr. John Campbell with his update for thursday 16th April [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F39kVKSCP40[/url]

(DJ-direct link [url]https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwalesmarch2020[/url]

also other link [url]https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathscausedbysuicidebyquarterinengland[/url] Suicide numbers are expected to rise-prevention should be a priority)

-statistics UK over March did see a rise of Covid19-in London half of all deaths were Covid19 related, at the end of March 28% of all deaths in the UK died from Covid 19 (only around 10% died with it but died due to an other illness). Also round 90% had comorbidities. Around 60% male, 40% female 87% above 65years old.

DJ-Statistics have limited use. It is good for monitoring-are there unexpected shifts in CFR, ages, gender. But it is also very easy to misuse statistics-"Covid19 is killing the old and sick". Social distancing is OK-anti social behaviour is NOT ! (Besides that Covid 19 is effecting the youger agegroup as well. What is much harder to catch in statistics is "quality of life". Permanent damage to lungs or liver, kidneys after Covid19 will effect also the young. )

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/ford-tests-buzzing-wristbands-keep-workers-six-feet-apart[/url] DJ-Good idea, better than "apps" following people. In NL the RIVM (Dutch CDC) is still against facemasks-even when Germany, Belgium changed their position. "Facemasks give a false sense of security and take away masks needed in healthcare" is the RIVM "non-sense". You can claim safetybelts in cars give a "false sense of security" -but it is good cars by law have those belts. The masks for general use would not be hospital masks. 

Facemasks, wristbands sending a warning you come to close to another person are cheap and easy to use, do not invade privacy-gives people a choice when and were to use it-some sense of control. The "big brother is watching you" approach makes people more unwilling to cooperate. [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/baltimore-pd-wants-24-hour-hd-surveillance-drones-enforce-social-distancing[/url] This is NOT the way to do it !

Gin&Tonic [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/history-hydroxychloroquine-india[/url] drinks containing quinine against malaria-piece of history.

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/chinese-gdp[/url], [url]https://www.visualcapitalist.com/china-u-s-worlds-trading-partner/[/url], [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/quantifying-covid-19-shock-job-market-where-jobs-are-growing-and-where-they-are-gone[/url],

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/first-time-ever-fed-will-monetize-double-total-treasury-issuance[/url] all dealing with the economic effects (for "the richer countries most) of the Coronacrisis. 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-live-president-trump-unveils-plan-reopen-america[/url] DJ-We have to restart the economy-but do it "with brains"!

European mortality bulletin week 15, 2020

Pooled mortality estimates from the EuroMOMO network continue to show a marked increase in excess all-cause mortality overall for the participating European countries, coinciding with the current COVID-19 global pandemic. This overall excess mortality is, however, driven by a very substantial excess mortality in some countries, primarily seen in the age group of 65 years and above, but also in the age group of 15-64 years.

Data from 24 participating countries or regions were included in this week’s pooled analysis of all-cause mortality.

Additional note this week: Because of the recent Easter period, there may have been extra delay in registration of deaths in the countries, hence making the interpretation of this week’s mortality estimates a bit more uncertain than is usually the case.

As usual, the number of deaths in the recent weeks should be interpreted with caution as adjustments for delayed registrations may be imprecise. Furthermore, results of pooled analyses may vary depending on countries included in the weekly analyses. Pooled analyses are adjusted for variation between the included countries and for differences in the local delay in reporting.

 

EuroMOMO map

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 17 2020 at 11:46pm

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/04/ranting-in-a-time-of-plague.html[/url] DJ-Good-but long-read on politics falling in the hands of sociopaths and fossils-of course not only a US problems in the EU we have Bojo (OK ex-EU), Sarkozy, DSK, Berlusconi, Salvini/Selfie-ni, in Brazil there is a problem/fascist ruining the country...

For NL-our PM Rutte is now very popular. People do not realize he/his party did cut spending on healthcare (and saleries for HCW on the floor) for years. Money went to "interim-managers" "care-for-profit" made care more expensive, privatization of all kind of-once for decades state owned-research facilities. "The market would do it better, competition would get lower costs"well it did not-the "top" did enrich themselves, as care-consumer you pay for profit, advertising, sponsoring-that does not make care cheaper. 

The WHO organization has as members the CDC, Dutch RIVM-those organizations failed in their advice-in NL this will have cost thousends of lives, in the US you are speaking of hundreds-of-thousends of people dying because NPI/lockdowns did not start early enough. NL exported masks/PPE to China in february-because the RIVM did not expect the pandemic to reach the EU-in Germany, Italy-at that time-there were the first clusters of Covid19....

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/mayor-new-york-city-will-not-reopen-until-july-or-august[/url]

Both in the US and EU (some) populist groups call NPI "communist repression" seem to be unable to understand the essence of a pandemic (even on this forum some reactions indicate a lack of understanding). [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-u-s-removing-strategic-assets-from-first-strike-danger-zone[/url] Since politics fail, lets start another war....the US was already fighting Iran and Russia in Syria-let start a war with China ! [url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/04/dont-believe-word-they-say-us-china-and.html[/url]

[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/04/while-eyes-of-world-are-on-covid-19.html[/url] Locusts eating the harvest in east Africa/south Asia, [url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/04/if-you-think-end-is-in-sight-when.html[/url] worsening the foodcrisis.

DJ-The economic fall-out of Covid19 is becoming clear. In our-just-in-time-economies the coronacrisis already did a lot of damage. Banks, companies, are starting to realize this crisis will take much more time. Most smaller companies will not have the reserves to survive. In the oil-war demand has fallen that much, even agreement between the three major producers (in a new OPEC+) on production cuts will not make a difference. US shale-oil is collapsing causing another financial crisis (US shale oil, Canada tar-sands oil need an oil price >50$ to make a profit. Saudi Arabia, Russia even can make-on a national scale-some profit at 20/25$. KSA and Russia also have better relations with the major oil consumer China. China also buying oil in Venezuela, Iraq, Iran-, Indonesiaand even the US, while increasing production in the South China Sea).

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 17 2020 at 11:55pm

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kCiDCBLpjZg&list=PLRgTUN1zz_oeQpnJxpeaEkFimDeepqyWf[/url] Peak Prosperity

"Failing to prepare=preparing to fail"-Benjamin Franklin

-It took 71 days to get to 1 milion cases, 12 days to get to 2 million cases-global doubling time 12 days, France, Singapore seeing increase of cases.

-China real number of deaths/cases must be we much higher (DJ-Although the Wuhan Honda car factory is now at 98% of its normal production-China subsidizing the market to sell cars-air polution worsens Covid19-did we not learn anything ?)

-CFR/outcome ratio can be explaned by a 7 day-lag in time-testing still a big problem CFR 7.4% in the US(?)

-"Dr.Phil" claiming swimming pools are deadlier than Covid19-"right wing" against lockdown-DJ-I do not agre with PP on calling people against lockdown "dummies". There are lots of reasons why people finf NPI/lockdowns hard to live by, from loss of income-economic to social-lots of single households face loneliness. You have to adress those problems. Czechia may have been in another position-NPI, masks did give results sooner. Here in NL we have an "intelligent lockdown" (the PM words)-with room to go out. You can ask people to stay at home for one or two weeks-give income/food for that time-clear info-when you ask people to "stay the f..k at home" for "unlimited time" (in small overcrowded housing, during a heatwave (India), or alone) you may be asking to much.) Maybe P.P. could choose a position in how to deal with this pandemic-is face masks, social distancing enough ? Or is "Big Brother" state supervision with apps and drones, needed-and how do you get out of such a "totalitarian approach"?

-NY-times now claiming the WHO did a good job-while they declared the Covid19 a pandemic 7 weeks to late is a "political-anti trump-story" rewriting history. PP is in favour of defunding the WHO (DJ The WHO is made up of national CDC's-so the problem may be there-make CDC's less political and you get a better science based WHO (or IPCC, OPCW, Unicef, etc.)

From min 26 economy; 

-1200$ would be enough for families to live on for 10 weeks ( DJ-with unemployment benefit on top of that for some ?) 22 milion unemployment claims-but stocks going up-Fed buying stocks

-oil prices 18$ p.b., Gold-price going down RABO-bank (Dutch)-if all US loose job stocks in US double ????

-leading economic indicators-worse crash since starting the data in 1966-maybe worse than 1929-but US stocks going up-making the rich even more rich

-Start a garden, waterfilter to have your own drinking water-PP expects (the US) to crash

-YouTube unsubscribing people from P.P. (like facebook and YouTube silenced Dutch Sinse)

DJ-PP is most focused on the US even with an eye on the rest of the world. That is one limitation. Also "starting a war" is out of the scope for PP. (PP will use this weekend to work on his garden-we may even get some rain in NL) Dr. John Campbell is better in taking a (more) global view-allthough if there is limited news, limited testing there is also a limit on reporting. 

Most states have statistical bureaus-those statistics on population may gave more indications on the real impact of Covid19. The Dutch CBS (Central Bureau of Statistics) reported 2000 more deaths for week 15 than "normal". The number of people dying from car accidents etc decreased-so more than 2000 of wich most of them could have died from Covid19 (related) illnesses.

Also in Dutch news only half the number of cancer-cases are detected-since people do not go to GP, hospital-they are often busy with Covid19-cases . Proberbly goes for more diseases (hearth, dementia etc)

DJ-Maybe main conclusion, since the will to accept NPI/lockdowns may be decreasing fast-while a lot of nations are still in the middle of this outbreak (by slow action to start NPI) a second wave is just a matter of time. The WHO reporting that "antibodies" may not mean protection, a vaccin still-at best-months away (more likely impossible to make for long time use) makes an even more pessimistic scenario. 

China IS recovering, the US is collapsing. The French "Charles de Gaulle"carrier had an infection rate of 60% (at best)-military may be seeing high infection rate. Starting another war (India versus Pakistan-India is seeing more anti Islam propaganda-even when India has over 200 million Muslims-it is the third Islamic country I believe. The US starting a war-even with Iran-not with China) may become a nuclear war now even faster. 

At best here in NL airtransport could be on the 2019 level in 2023-(DJ-fossil fuel, unlimited international travel are causes of the problem) means massive losses for capital intensive companies (Airliners, Aircraft production, maintanance, catering). Basicly another indication for a banking, financial crisis much worse than 2008. 

DJ-Hope for the best, enjoy the good times/memories as long as you can-try to avoid getting ill...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 18 2020 at 10:58pm

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w7F_hzqIhM[/url] (DJ-turns out to be part 2 of his Saterday April 18 update)

-looking for herd immunity based on bloodbank test in NL (of the 10.000 tested 300 tested positive) and some findings in the US

Alarming-high percentage all (still) without symptoms spreading the virus. (DJ I do not get why Dr. John Campbell is now optimistic on herd immunity. You would need 80/90% of the population to be immune to get herd-immunity. ( Dr. J.C. claim 60/70% in my opinion is "optimistic")Recent doubts that some antibodies may not be enough to provide protection). DJ-Working with numbers/statistics 1 you need good numbers 2 you need to know were those numbers stand for/what they mean. In NL donating blood is NOT making money, there is a selection (on health risks) for becoming a blooddonor-so those numbers do NOT represent the Dutch population-gives only some indication.  Dr.J.C. is also WRONG in his number of deaths in NL these numbers represent tested hospital deaths-CBS may give more accurate number of all deaths. The number of deaths for NL should be twice as high-so CFR is higher as well.

(By the way NL=17.8 mln NOT 17.3 mln) .

Stanford-Santa Clara test most usefull. Since these tests can be used as a basis to "re-open/"liberate" states you need GOOD data. Or you go high speed to another outbreak. [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/reopening-too-soon-could-cause-exponential-explosion-us-covid-19-cases-mit-researchers[/url]

-NY governor describing coordination between US states and federal government as "mayhem" (DJ-chaos)

-Internal domestic air travel in US never halted (???????)

-UK Dr.J.C. realizes that for England numbers are tested hospital deaths, should go up 50% (DJ-at least) to get to real numbers,

1 in 3 ethnic vit.D/C, "no need for community testing"-march 12-now 100.000 test per day R0=0.5 to 1 (????)

-Belgium number of deaths include also suspected deaths due to Covid19

-Germany, initial outbreak in younger age group, looking for R0 of 1.2 (to get herd/group immunity ? Dr. J. C. susspects in NL R0=<1)

-France 50% of all deaths are in care homes (Dr.J.C. would like to know numbers of prisons

-Ecuador number of deaths (DJ-most likely already quite high) 7 times higher than normal in some area's (news outlets)

DJ-Dr.J.C. is looking at criteria for restarting the economy/easing lock downs. Masks help, R0 a little over 1.2 (DJ-How do you control that with limited testing and high asymptomatic cases ?)

-Israel doing good in testing, masks etc. 

-Bangla Desh Islamic scholar funaral did get a crowd of over 100.000 ........

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pgy1zsR1cxs[/url] part 1

-Things will not go to "normal" till next year. Lots of people now not seeking care who need care so number of deaths going up due to heart problems, strokes etc. 

-Social problems, alcohol (weakening immune system) domestic violence, suïcide growing (alcohol diary for self reflection good idea)

-lots of cases "do not sero convert" = get no antibodies after Covid19 infection (in the serum)

-UK/US looking in to where the virus did come from (DJ is urgent to see what further risks there are. Politicizing that research is destroying that research)

Dr.J.C. in my (DJ) opinion-provides a lot of good info but moving to "wishfull thinking" bias (Dutch number of deaths=small range-only tested hospital number, Belgian numbers are wide range-including suspected cases-both numbers are under reporting. In my (DJ) opinion we are far away from herd/group immunity-you need also more people to be immune (for some diseases you may need 95%). 

[url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.03.20052084v1[/url] and [url]https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/[/url] restarting the economy to early is asking for disaster. (DJ-but with the political climate in some countries not to stop). 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/wuhan-has-reopened-yet-nobodys-going-out-eat[/url] 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/covid-19-could-change-travel-behavior-forever-putting-3-million-bd-oil-demand-risk[/url]

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/04/the-new-anti-china-campaign-is-built-on-lies.html[/url]

DJ-A worst case scenario is trump blaming China for his failure to act in time. Claiming the lack of preparedness not by taking responsability but "China bio-weapon attack claims" "so we must act" NATO art5 etc.insanity.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 19 2020 at 12:58am

Vic Dibitetto in his "message to the government" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLcNStHTDjM[/url]

Outraged by the total stupidity of the US response to the crisis the New York/Italian way-he is correct. (Most likely the video will not stay on you tube that long). Would love to have what he is saying in writing !

In the US NPI is failing because most average citizens need an income-no job=no income so they want to "restart the economy".

Trump's offensive against democratic state governors for "liberation" is showing a total lack of understanding of how damaging pandemics can be. 

DJ-Many countries are developing rules on [url]https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/04/15/834021103/who-sets-6-conditions-for-ending-a-coronavirus-lockdown[/url]

-1 transmission under control

-2 healthsystem able to detect, test, tract, isolate and treat every case

-3 hot spots minimized

-4 schools, workplaces maximized prevention

-5 risks of new cases imported 'managed'

-6 communities are educated to live under "new normal" (so social distancing, masks etc

Most countries-in medical terms-are not ready for it. In social and political terms are unable to make NPI work much longer.

(Some countries like the US, Brazil  Sweden-left government-also simply did not "get it" in time) have "leaders" who sabotage NPI by stupidity-other countries take half steps-making it takes much more time to see an effect.)

Some of the risks;

-In Africa, most of Asia, Latin America "virus is out of control". Infecting most/all of the population. Statistics show up to 20% may need hospitals-with (for the west) "mild cases" also can see pneumonia. So lots of people die is a reasonable assumption. Since there is already widespread other diseases and most developing countries have a young population;

-the virus will adapt to that younger population [url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/18/teen-dies-covid-19-netherlands-youngest-case-yet-deaths-top-3600[/url] (DJ-One thing to monitor is a shift in age groups being effected-due to (very) limited testing we may not detect these developments in time. Lots of young people DO get Covid19 but do not get tested or end up in hospitals YET !!!!)

-pick up/worsen other illnesses (can mosquitos that spread malaria spread Covid19 ? In some countries up to 25% HIV+, TB, etc. 

(India mutation in wich the corona-virus less infects via ACE2 receptors-it will reproduce in cells in other ways)

-will the virus get a chance to find another host (pigs, lions/tigers, camels, pets (so far limited reports on dogs, cats, tiger-in NY Zoo-not (yet) spreading the virus but positive for antibodies)

For the west;

-the longer/stronger the outbreak the worse the economic fall out will be.

"United" may become "divided" in conflicts on how to deal with the crisis-certainly when division was already there (In the UK Scotland, Ireland-issues, Spain Catalunya, US political/economic large differences, the EU)

Background;

China is still trying to become the major global economy, lots of countries want other than US$ for (international) energy payments

(The US attacked Libya, Iraq when they dropped the US-petro-$ for energy payments)

Climate change is still escalating ( a slow down for a few months is not making that mich difference for that proces)

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1e7zXAGMKQ[/url] Just have a think

DJ-We do not have much room left to avoid a "major disaster" (End-of-Live-Event ELE). "Blaming China" (US) or "blaming muslims"(India) is bringing the world much to close to world War 3/nuclear war. Even without a war Covid19 is very hard to control and will be around for years-even if there is a vaccin-we now have almost 8 billion people on this planet. 

China went to extreme measures to contain the outbreak-and a lot of measures are still not (fully) lifted. Still they do not have this outbreak under full control. Most western countries did much less and expect much better results-think they can "restart". I still do not see any reason for optimism for "second/third world countries". Lock downs will not work without incomes/food. The healthcare that is there is already overloaded. 

DJ-I earlier wrote that I expected the total number of deaths to go above 500 million. (The Spanish Flu killed between 50-100 million people when the global population was 2 billion-later flu pandemics did see max. 2 million deaths [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_HIV/AIDS[/url]  and [url]https://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en/[/url] AIDS infected 77 million, killed 32 million) 

From a history point of view pandemics were part of the end of the Roman empire. It is always a mix of reasons. People do not get the exponential function but also forget lessons from history-even with HIV/AIDS events right under their noses !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 19 2020 at 1:58am

Which comedian do you like better, Vic Dibitetto or Hal Turner? I don't find either that funny, but it is sad they are trying to profit off this disaster. 

There was some good entertainment on TV last night for a good cause, check it out.

https://youtu.be/N7pZgQepXfA?t=9


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 19 2020 at 2:06am

My favorite performance of the night, scroll about halfway through the song to see the best part.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 19 2020 at 2:37am

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Eo9M4-BrJA[/url] Corona Rhapsody [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jgE2ucIH9cE[/url] other version

ksc thanks for the links. Beegees "staying alive" does get a different meaning.....

Who wants to live fore ever-Dune [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nHedI5Ky8z0[/url]

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 19 2020 at 1:56pm

[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/china-us-situation.13970/[/url], [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/[/url] "Covid19 was no accident"-claim

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/critics-slam-trump-claiming-china-should-face-consequences-if-it-knowingly-unleashed[/url],

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kyle-bass-blasts-chinas-most-lying-coercive-manipulative-government-knowingly[/url] infecting the world

[url]https://user.guancha.cn/main/content?id=64901[/url]

DJ-Is the US preparing for military action against China ???????

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ut_6WpoDLTk[/url] Paul Beckwith-Now is not the time for a blame-game.

DJ-We are in the middle of one of the worst health crisis the world has ever seen. Starting a war with China is insane. Russia will not accept any (further) US agression. 

I only hope this alarming news is false.....


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 19 2020 at 10:05pm

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Vqe0zsBVCI&list=PL4A2E33FCBAEF1E5B[/url] Peak Prosperity with a 2 hour podcast over Covid19 and the economy from april 9-proberbly worth listening.....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-outraged-after-largest-german-newspaper-accuses-beijing-starting-coronavirus[/url] and [url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/china-us-situation.13970/[/url]

DJ-How Covid19 effects international relations should be a growing worry. Not only some in the US "go wild" on China also a few in France-and now Germany-think this is the right moment for the "blame game".  If any country is able to stop Covid19 in Africa, other poor countries-it may be China. [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-04-18/americans-were-already-14-trillion-debt-covid-19-outbreak[/url] (Just as a reminder the US economy is debt-based-the US owes China trillions. Is starting a war cheaper than paying your debts ???)

In my opinion we only have one choice/option that is working international to deal with this crisis !

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/where-world-corona-curve-moment-over-hump[/url] From Russia to Africa etc lots of places only in the early stages of this outbreak !

The economic impact [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ive-never-encountered-anything-china-stock-index-suffers-record-crash-and-nobody-knows-why[/url] will hit us all.

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/young-covid-positive-redditors-describe-agony-symptoms-lasting-nearly-two-months-after[/url] getting sick. Even after the worst symptoms have gone-most of recovered cases need long term revalidation. (Post Viral Syndrom [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronic_fatigue_syndrome[/url]-DJ-You may have to live with that the rest of your live.)

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-04-18/aerobic-exercise-helps-protect-against-coronavirus[/url] DJ-I have to put on some music, camera is off....ok !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 20 2020 at 10:00pm

Good update-again-from Peak Prosperity [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R8Pv77R3g1E[/url]

-Sweden had exponential growrh of Covid19-when there were no restrictions (DJ-And there are now voluntary restrictions-Sweden is not that big in population-lots of room-social distancing should be possible there. Most people do not want to get infected.)

-The "Stanford Study-50 people out of 3300-in Santa Clara county tested positeve for Covid19 (Dr. John Campbell was very happy-I do not know why-it is far away from group-immunity-4%(2,5/4.3%) and 1-not at random but pre-selection of tested cases, (asking volunteers via Facebook is not a good basis-they get a free Covid19 test)2-the test may not be the best. (Chinese test-Denmark says 87% reliable-worst of 9 tested tests-not FDA approved)

DJ-Pushing for "liberation" in the middle of the largest healthcrisis the world did see in a very long time is unwise !

We know that more people did have a Covid19 infection than were/got tested-that is not news (Dutch bloodbank saw 3% of donors positive). WSJ-making this "study" "more people were infected"-while some of those tested positive me be PRE-symptomatic-still will see symptoms-not even A-symptomatic !

(writer of the WSJ-article was in the Stanford "study" team, other "scientists" are also active in groups claiming Covid19 is not that dangerous-save the economy-fake"science for sale". Nature should not have published this kind of non-science !)

Min-34-negative oil prices-people have to pay to get rid of short term oil contracts or find storage place. DJ-This simply means economy is "down". There is not enough demand to deal with production cuts of OPEC++ (including the US) of 10%. 

Oil in US and Canada needs prices above 40$ to make a profit-oil industry will collapse, banks behind it will collapse. With banks also loosing billions in many other ways the next financial crisis is just around the corner...far bigger than 2008.

DJ-I did see "Dr. John Campbell" has some new video's-he may be a friendly GP/trainer-for present day reality he lacks thinking critical. There is a major push-based on fake science-to "restart the economy". I do not think that real science is able to stop that.

Just as with climate change and smoking/tobacco "paid science/science-for-sale" has to create a fake-reality. With Covid19 that "fake reality" (and blaming China, the WHO with 16 US scientist in the top of the WHO) will turn into global disaster if restrictions are lifted to soon. Informed persons can make up their mind-even with limited choices (you may need to go to your job, are not able to wear a mask at school)-make the best of it !

[url]https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/world-health-organisation-chief-warns-worst-ahead-of-us-yet-in-coronavirus-pandemic-a4419401.html[/url] DJ-WHO not being very clear but [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/india-reports-record-spike-coronavirus-cases-just-it-starts-reopening-economy[/url] also Africa, Latin America, Russia will get far worse....

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/reports-and-retractions-north-korea-s-kim-jung-un-reported-dead-then-alive-but-brain-dead[/url] ???? (We will find out soon)

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/global-oil-market-now-destroyed-only-solution-is-middle-east-war[/url], [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/revolutionary-times-regime-collapse-system-cannot-handle-it[/url]

DJ-China may be recovering-even if there is lots of desinformation [url]https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1186077.shtml[/url],

[url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-04-20/Three-sayings-to-characterize-China-s-role-in-global-pandemic-fight-PGFh7IK5Ms/index.html[/url]

The US hegomony over the world is ended by Covid19. The US by reopening with limited/no testing, HCW ill, shortage of PPE is self destruction. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 21 2020 at 3:32am

DJ On [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/global-oil-market-now-destroyed-only-solution-is-middle-east-war[/url] and [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/revolutionary-times-regime-collapse-system-cannot-handle-it[/url]

The goal of a war/conflict would be to rise the oil-price. Most oil-producing countries have budgets that needs much higher oil prices that the current market can provide. The income from oil is used to keep the (poor) population under control-subsidize food, transport, housing-from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait to Venezuela, Indonesia-that is how it works.

[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/china-us-situation.13970/[/url] (DJ-Harbin NE-China other major outbreak ? Not the best basis for info-just like HT-but may be real.)

With the WHO warning the worst is yet to come, uncertainty on when to lift NPI/lockdowns, second/more waves-demand for oil will remain that low that ALL oil producers will suffer severe economic damage. 

Even further production cuts will have very limited effect when the demand stayes this low. 

The FED is creating money (like crazy) to keep an international financial system allive. To be able to finance other countries that see their incomes collapse. (This Covid19 is not only hitting personal incomes-states see their financial problems explode-a lot of "created US$" will be used to "help" countries under US conditions.)

Russia/China, Iran have been pushing for de-dollarization-see more in "special drawing rights-IMF style"-a basket of international currencies to keep trade-a global financial system-surviving. Point is a US$ global system would be under US control, a globel-mixed currency system would be under some control of more countries. 

Several armies most likely are hard hit by Covid19. Most likely China PLA (Peoples Liberation Army) is in relative good shape. 

There will be more unrest than during the Arab spring-worldwide-military interventions could be needed to keep states surviving. 

China needs food, resources, even harder to keep/restart her economy. They may seek that in Africa, Latin America, Middle East. 

This corona-crisis is causing an economic crisis leading to a financial crisis-worsening the geo-political crisis. Bad news !

Hal Turner claims : 

global demand for oil and gasoline has plunged to almost nothing, and ALL (literally ALL) the storage capacity of the entire planet, is full.  There's nowhere to PUT the oil if it comes out of the ground.

This situation has never taken place before in recorded history.  

I am told by several sources to look for a sudden, dramatic, and massive, start to an incredibly huge war, this week.   Yes, THIS WEEK.

Readers are urged in the strongest terms possible to top-off food, medicine, fuel, gun and ammunition supplies.  Don't wait.


DJ-We will have to wait and see, no other options

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 21 2020 at 6:59am

Post links that work and check that they are not fake news!  And summarize please

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 21 2020 at 9:59am

Usk-I understand some browsers do not do well with links, I try to be selective with my sources-try to prevent "fake".

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/04/negative-prices-mark-the-end-of-us-shale.html[/url] (or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/04/negative-prices-mark-the-end-of-us-shale.html does this work ?)

DJ- Canada crude also going negative ? US shale debt over 200 billion-none will be paid back

Several large consumer countries are in lockdown. Global air travel is down by more than 80%. There is only little demand for gasoline or other refined products.

The WTI benchmark, which reflects the price in landlocked Cushing, Oklahoma, was not the only trade index in trouble. West Canadian Select oil also traded in negative territory. Contracts for WTI deliveries in June were still positive at $20/barrel as were Brent oil contracts ($25/bl) which reflect delivery at sea.

U.S. shale oil producers have already cut back some of their production but they will have to cut much more. The Baker Hughes count of active U.S. oil and gas rigs fell from more than 1,000 active rigs last year to 529 active rigs on Friday. I expect it to drop below 100 during the next few weeks.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 21 2020 at 10:26pm

DJ-In his pressmeeting our PM Mark Rutte yesterday mentioned talks with Angela Merkel-Germany. The shared goal is R0<1-so minimize the spread of Covid19. This goes against a story Dr.John Campbell had a few days ago of Germany going for R0=1.2 to get some "herd"/group-immunity. Most states seem to have given up on the idea of "group immunity" -first it is very hard to get a virus under control, second-we now have between 3 to 4% people testing positive for Covid19 with already thousends of people dead, three- even if you survive there is a real risk of (severe) healthproblems maybe permanent;

Peak Prosperity (PP) on that [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=COQY0et2J-E&list=PLRgTUN1zz_oeQpnJxpeaEkFimDeepqyWf[/url]

-Excess deaths going up all over the world. This includes ALL deaths-but less people die in car accidents during lock downs, more people die for not going to a doctor for hearthfaillure etc. =indirect deaths

-balancing act-you NEED some sort of economy going to keep society running/income (closing borders at this moment more a political move-certainly when you do not stop internal travel from hot spots inside the US)

-cases; 28female-US good health-now no fever but body temperature to low, vomiting, 5 weeks of waves of problems now serious lung/hearthproblems. Austria-Insbruck-divers-suppost to be "mild cases" have permanent lungproblems can no longer dive.

(DJ-In these stories people are YOUNG-28 a diver=40-is there a tendency-others on this forum also mentioned-of people getting younger getting infected ?)

-Are (old) people safe in care centers ? Or should you take people away from there ? It is a very difficult question and you have to look at all factors-how dependent is the one in a care center-can you take (better) care-also long term ? Some centers are good in keeping the virus out-(DJ others did have (noro/other virus ) earlier-it is a trust-question).

DJ-Some elderly live by themselves-may need some extra attention-I think you also have to look at what an (elder) person wants-even with the risks. In Europe-were governments often pay for care one may lose a place in a carecenter-end up at a waitinglist-so it is complicated.

min 37.30 economy-negative oil prices -may contracts went negative-now june-delivery contracts on the same route. US shale-oil industry need 50/60$ prices to make a profit because they also have high intersts to pay. (DJ-I believe it was in the Pres. Obama or even earlier time the US did see oil-by-fracking grow. It was based on the idea energy prices would be (far) above 60$ for a long time. 

"Clean energy"-most countries more or less taking climate change serious-means less fossil fuels. US sanctions "on everybody" was a bad marketing strategy. The EU is buying energy from Russia, Middle East. China has long term contracts with Russia, Iran, KSA-both no longer may use US$ for payment. The corona-crisis only made things much worse faster. Eur-Asia is more and more transporting energy (oil, gas but also electricity) over land (pipelines but also the (most above ground) high voltage network is pan-european-here in NL we buy electricity were the prices are the best-one day it may be hydro-electricity from Scandinavia, the next day windpower from Danmark or nuclear energy from France. The US is NOT connected to the EurAsia energy market needs expensive transport/LNG so competing for US energy on a global market would be hard anyway.)

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzZXOfveeY4[/url] Paul Beckwith on climate change and Covid19 (both used in politics-with scientists being paid to lie etc.) (part2 of 5 video's usk-I get your point of keeping a story short)

-lockdowns =less airpolution, also much less planes in the air=temperatures going up. Global Average Surface Temperatures (GAST) on a 1750 baseline =near 2C + also maybe interesting study on Covid19

DJ-I try to exclude "fake news" as much as possible. Problem is that "fake news" may be mixed with good reporting. [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wO4zLDxZb4U[/url] Dr, John Campbell may have some good info on Covid19 in Africa-but also came up with bad info on the "Stanford study" and Germany going for herd immunity. 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/[/url] is not very reliable often-but I think on foreign politics he may be correct sometimes and give info you may not find elsewere. (He once reported on Turkey and Saudi Arabia being ready to invade Syria. I think on the last moment the plans were cancelled-it never got in the main stream media.) 

Negative oil prices, global economy crashing HAS to have huge political impacts. [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/04/us-media-fall-for-kim-jong-un-rumor-from-us-government-financed-propaganda-outlet.html[/url] etc. also often gives good info-but sometimes the info turns out not to be correct. 

Zero Hedge [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/shocking-study-finds-coronavirus-mutations-are-much-deadlier-original[/url]

also lots of news-some bad reporting but also very good info. RT.com etc-can give info. 

I (DJ) try to check info as best as I can-put ? when I doubt conclusions. 

Keeping it short is relative-some articles, video's are extreme (Dutchsinse simply took to much time for me to follow) I try to give a sort of summary-but with this story having so many aspects it is hard to keep the story short.

links I put in [url] but may not work with some browsers, trying to copy text from MoA (a.o.) does not always work. 

I do my best to give an overview of the present global chaos-hope it is appreciated - it is what I can do. But remarks, comments are always welcomed-feedback can help me to make this overview better.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 22 2020 at 3:05am

Always appreciated, DJ!

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His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 22 2020 at 4:12am

Thanks Techno-I realize that often in "scenario's" I am writing a summary of what is already a summary-40 minutes talk of PP. Trying to get a long ZH story in a few lines, correcting/asking questions on what is reported. 

Putting "links" would be nice if there is one standard type of making links for this forum-but different browsers is not what this forum can solve....

We live in "interesting times" may face companies like Exxon, Shell, IKEA going bankrupt (the oil companies invested billions in exploration rights, oil reserves, pipelines etc). Most of us will get (a lot) less income-in that way this Corona-crisis will hit us all.

Africa etc. without clean water, no electricity, one doctor on 100.000/200.000 people may face 20/25% of its population dying (if 20% of all cases need hospitalization-and there are no hospitals-"mild cases" see severe pneumonia). 

I (DJ) miss these kind of discussions in the "main stream media"-that is why I put it here....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 22 2020 at 9:43pm

DJ [url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/22/netherlands-hitting-coronavirus-testing-target-rejects-16-rapid-tests-starts-app[/url]

The Dutch government is pulling forward plans to invest in housing and infrastructure to stimulate the economy.

-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-john-pilgers-coming-war-china[/url] and [url]https://www.rt.com/news/486575-russia-coronavirus-global-conflict/[/url] DJ-As long as the US goal is global domination global war is around the corner. The present corona-crisis only makes matters worse.

-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/kyle-bass-saudis-are-sending-us-50-million-barrel-oil-bomb[/url] oil production went down 10%, oil demand went down 30%-Saudi Arabia wants to ragain her #1 position in oil production. 

-[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/04/it-is-not-authoritarian-to-support-quarantine-measures-it-just-makes-sense.html[/url]

(DJ-I simply do not get the point, is keeping a person from running into a house on fire "authoritarian" "communist" ????)

Peak Prosperity on hydroxy-chloroquine-used in the right combination (zink etc) and at the right moment (early phase) may work. 

Somehow this turned into a "pseudo-political debate" while results should count-have we all gone crazy ????

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLSYRqcg0wo&list=PLRgTUN1zz_oeQpnJxpeaEkFimDeepqyWf[/url]

-Just like the "Stanford study" claiming we are on our way to gtoup-immunity a lot of "studies" on HCQ are not "science based".

-French study HCQ in combination brought down mortality to 0,5% (10 out of 2600 cases), Costa Rica-working with China scientists did get CFR <1%-global CFR getting close to 7% (!!!!!)

-US "study" was looking at some statistics, DJ-some conclusions: 1. Are some US doctors just experimenting with HCQ ? They do not know when the use it, in what combination, what dosis ? Does (US) media/"journalists" not read/think ? (Use "science" against trump-forgetting it has to be on saving lives-crazy, unbelievable....)

-The UVA will do another-proper-study on [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Remdesivir[/url] after a bad-"study" on HCQ (DJ-What to expect ? Rest of the world will use HCQ in time US may go for Remdesivir-is it that corrupt ?)

-PP warning they may be excluded from YouTube since they do not tell the WHO story.....( I am out of words)

DJ-The US is only 4% of the global population [url]https://africanarguments.org/2020/04/16/coronavirus-open-letter-african-intellectuals-africa-leaders/[/url] it is the poor countries that face massive deaths-Covid19 yet another crisis on top of the many crisis they already face. 

As PP puts it: It did not have to be this way. Mismanagement, inaction, stupidity are the main reasons for this crisis. Are humans self-destructive ? It looks that way !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 23 2020 at 4:43am

DJ-Some concerns,

-[url]https://www.dw.com/en/africa-rallies-support-for-coronavirus-testing-kits/a-53208002[/url], [url]https://africacdc.org/news/african-union-and-africa-centres-for-disease-control-and-prevention-launch-partnership-to-accelerate-covid-19-testing-trace-test-and-track/[/url]

We may be missing major developments that happen in "third world countries". Population often is much younger, all kind of other diseases widespread. People live close to animals, often without water, electricity, communication. Since climate change, foodcrisis etc. are already pushing people to richer countries the virus will come with them in new shapes.

-Tensions between countries increase. China may be willing to "further invest" and "provide aid" at a cost-other countries are not better. In Syria we have a confrontation between "the west" and "the east"(Russia-Iran-China), Turkey is involved in Libya, "third world countries" face a lot of "interest for their resources and food/fertile land-already weak governments only will get more weaker-the "Syria-scenario" (already in far to many countries Somalia, Yemen, Kashmir, Iraq) may become a "new normal" in far more "third /second world" countries (Indonesia, Nigeria, Colombia, Brazil).

-Rushing to "save the economy" can bring back the virus. [url]https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-will-make-life-hard-for-a-long-time-angela-merkel-says/a-53214848[/url].. The balancing act between health and economy will be one step forward-half a step backwards....a major challenge-out of balance can have very major consequences.

-[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-fatal-road-to-4-degrees-celsius.html[/url] Climate change is not slowing down. Extreme weather is increasing. Massive melt is increasing risks for earthquakes/volcanic eruptions. Major nuclear accidents happen every twenty years [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_power_accidents_by_country[/url].. Mass evacuations will cause further spread of Covid19 (and other diseases).

-Media are under-reporting on the global situation. The WHO and UN are weak and running behind the facts. What happens in one country most likely will not stay in that country. There is very little effort to even monitor developments in time-another disaster is just around the corner.

-Financial/economic resources/reserves may soon run out to deal with the extreme damage. Money is often not used in the best way-what is the point of saving airliners when international air travel will remain limited for at least some years ? Countries that once could survive on tourism have to "re-organize". 

-Global healthcare is at risk. In the past the world could react to an Ebola-outbreak, deal with a major Flu-in most countries healthcare is overstretched. Major investments are needed even to keep healthcare at recent levels. Life expectancy is under pressure. (Till 1900 in Europe people most did not get much older than 40-in history the life expectancy may have been between 30 and 40 depending on wars and harvests. In the industrial revolution in some poor area's workers hardly became old enough (<20) to have children. ) In many countries were people do reach old age often it goes with major health problems.

-People recovering from Covid19 may have long term health issues. The number of people able to work may decrease-with that the will to pay for those that can not (yet) work; children, elderly, chronicly ill. (Instead of making jobs "fit the person" so more people can do some work there may be a tendency to "punish" those that do not fit to unreasonable standards. We have to reorganize work-do essential jobs and make that more important than going for profits. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2020 at 1:26am

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-w8umI_IE8[/url] PP;

-statistics, "waves" due to less reporting in weekend (less testing on sundays)

-also increased mortality due to Covid19 much higher than even a pandemic flu season. See also [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-not-flu-all[/url]

-Brazil study on treatment-in early stages-with HXC again showing promiss. 

-Remdesivir (treatment costs 1000 $ versus HQC 1$) not effective (for treatment-but effective in profits/shareholders)(leaked report)

-Integrity in stead of chaos-in the political debate (DJ-PP is correct in balancing health and economy-it is not "left or right" it is very complex-what may be a good idea in Europe may be  not the best for the US etc.)-look at results.

-Both "permanent lockdown" and "reopen all" do not work-good communications priority

-Spent money on research, test everything (so not pushing money to banks, companies that use the money for buy-back of shares)

-Prize for working solutions

-help people (companies, states) with adjusting to a new situation (financial aid to the bottom-not the top)

-Lead by example (masks government of Costa Rica, DJ-Our PM in NL rides a bike !)

-Paint a vision (DJ-set a goal-in my opinion we need LESS cars, airtravel etc-more awareness on the enviroment-plant a garden !)

DJ-For European statistics [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/[/url] extra deaths are not all covid19 deaths but the sharp increase speaks for itself.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2020 at 3:28am

The Euro data Euromomo data is interesting. Thanks.

One thing of note is how much deaths in the 0-4 year bracket have gone down (last week by 84%). I suppose with all the lock downs, there have been less accidents, and also they have not caught other illnesses.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2020 at 4:17am

EdwinSM-I (DJ) think that all iknd of (children)diseases now also slow down-traffic much safer etc.

On a global scenario for dealing with Covid19;

From Peak Prosperity-Non Pharma Interventions;

-masks, social distancing may slow down the spread-also in "poor" counties

-HCQ (and other simple old malaria-drugs), Zinc may be effective and affordable

-good communications, (lockdowns when that means no food on the table do NOT work)

-simple and cheap solutions can work fast with local means

From Dr. John Campbell;

-the darker the skin the more vitamin D is a problem-so extra vitamins D3, C, Zinc

I (DJ) think programs to get clean water in poor area's (so people can wash their hands, improve hygiene) need more urgency,

in India there are more (mobile)phones then toilets-Bill Gates had once a good idea of "compost-toilets" (without expensive sewage system) 

Rich countries have to help poorer countries also out of self-interest; what happens in poor countries will not stay in poor countries.

To provide help at a scale needed pharma companies have to give up profits prioritize saving lives. (Countries like China, Russia may be more willing to-if need be-nationalize companies. In the US the War Act also is getting a grip on companies. )

The only way out of this crisis is by international cooperation not competition. (Trust not hate).

On the long term;

-family planning

-de-concentration of people (not one mega-slum but many small ones)

-education, improve healthcare

-decrease income-inequality, "a job for all-with an income to live for all"

DJ-Basicly "the world" in many ways claim these action are already goals-but in fact often it is empty words. Climate change is a motor for pandamics-a global monitoring system is needed-with also a "list of actions/scenario"on who does what with the next large scale health emergency. Early action can prevent pandamics-inaction cause pandamics !

On the human scale "fear is the other side of care". Out of fear people can go to the street trying to deny a problem-making things worse. We are all humans-fear should protect us from doing stupid things. Transforming fear into care-good actions-is done by communication.

Pandamics, diseases, death, is part of life, human history. We may believe to be "above" nature but we are not. Some humility would be good for us. 

Who do "we"put in positions of power-and why do we do that ? What powers should we give to a government and what should be individual choice ? (Do people have a right to choose in vaccinations, apps, state-control ?) 

Democracy is not "at its best" in these times. What do we want from democracy ? (In the "communist east" till 1990 the story was-every body can get free care, housing, public transport-there is a job for all, free education. In my opinion that is also part of "democracy" when the opposite would be only the rich can get care, housing education.) Did we get "out of balance"as a civilization when "poor people" turn out to be most "people with darker skins" ? Do we want a global system of "apartheid" in wich you are lucky when you are born in a "rich"country, doomed if you are born in a "poor" country ?

There is a job to be done ! 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fzDft0DZRUw[/url] Heal the world-Michael Jackson

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2020 at 5:33am

News from around the world (DJ-without a paywall)-the world is much larger than the US, EU Australia, New Zealand

Brazil; [url]https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/scienceandhealth/2020/04/minister-of-health-speaks-of-isolation-exit-plan.shtml[/url]

lockdown day 29 South Africa [url]https://specialprojects.news24.com/coronavirus/index.html[/url]

Nigeria [url]https://punchng.com/nma-fumes-as-fg-says-40-health-workers-test-positive/[/url]

Russia; [url]https://www.rt.com/russia/486682-russia-qr-code-coronavirus/[/url]

China; [url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-04-23/Xi-Jinping-in-Shaanxi-Anti-poverty-drive-amid-COVID-19-PVvK7Rc7Ze/index.html[/url]

DJ-In a documentary one Chinese bussinessman said-the US has more political parties but just one policy, China has one political party but very different policies. (China once almost copied the Soviet state economy, now has an almost capitalist system-but the state keeps controled not by big companies but a political party that needs widespread support to stay in power.)

South Korea-"new normal" [url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200424004300320?section=economy/economy[/url]

Japan [url]https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/24/national/japan-likely-extend-state-emergency-evaluating-golden-week-infection-data/#.XqLfIhkvPnE[/url]

Netherlands [url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/24/amsterdam-hospital-studying-whether-breast-milk-can-protect-coronavirus[/url]

Mothers-after recovery from Covid19-may have antibodies in their breast milk.

Germany [url]https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-latest-german-health-institute-advises-slow-reopening/a-53227468[/url]

Belize-English speaking Central America country [url]https://amandala.com.bz/news/we-are-terribly-short-of-money-pm-barrow/[/url]due to Covid19

 On earthquake risk; [url]https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/21/national/m9-quake-30-meter-tsunami-hit-northern-japan-government-panel/[/url] (DJ-Also in west US/Canada increased seismic activity !)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2020 at 12:46pm

-DJ, [url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/24/klm-big-fail-netherlands-pledges-eu4-billion-bailout[/url] 1-airpolution was a major basis for people being infected more easy, 2-airtransport of the virus spread the pandemic. [url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/24/coronavirus-expected-hand-netherlands-worst-ever-budget-deficit[/url] So spending cuts on healthcare, enviroment ....?

So just like banks causing the financial crisis get rewarded by billions of tax-payers-money because "they are to big to fail" now airliners-part of the problem-are to "big to fail".

Bad reporting-pseudo "science"[url] https://www.zerohedge.com/health/data-stop-panic-end-total-isolation[/url], good reporting (Peak Prosperity) also on Zero Hedge [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/debunking-hydroxychloroquine-controversy[/url]

DJ-You need an economy to have a healthcare system [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/here-are-key-dates-world-reopens-coronavirus-coma[/url]

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/04/exceptionalism.html[/url] US, UK, NL "best prepared" for pandamic-also (long time) in top 10 for lots of cases, lots of deaths....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 24 2020 at 11:45pm

Peak Prosperity [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rN_YpFhdii4&list=PLRgTUN1zz_oeQpnJxpeaEkFimDeepqyWf[/url]

-statistics-NPI and masks (=also NPI) work, but numbers are flat not going down (yet) Covid19 25 to 40 times more deadly than the (average) flu

-we need a working economy to have healthcare

-CFR and IFR (Infection Fatality Rate) are two different things (DJ-To make it even more complex people may have several diseases and die-did they die from the flu or the pneumonia ?)

-HCQ works but "studies" claim heartproblems without any data (PP claims ideological rigidity is the problem-DJ if you can make money from other medecation NOT from 70 year old HCQ there may be an economic motive PP is missing). Of course you can overdose HCQ or give it at wrong moment(s)

PP will take the weekend of-plant his garden-have a break !

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/surprise-cruise-ship-outbreak-nagasaki-exposes-staggering-negligence[/url] staff still live on the cruise ships

DJ-In articles like [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/ripple-effects-government-lockdown-are-only-starting-take-shape[/url] a lot of non-science is mixed in. Covid19 is 25 to 40 times deadlier than the flu-so at least "some action" was needed to slow it down. Masks would allow people to do their thing often. But most western countries seem to be against face masks. (Here in NL the Dutch public transport now is pushing for masks. When more schools reopen, increase of activity public transport only can provide safety with masks.) The article also ignores long term health effects in (young) survivors. It plays an age game "old (50+) against young (50-)".

Politics needs a vision on were to go after Covid19-and there is a problem. Saving airlines with billions of tax payers money means "we"did not learn a lot. International air travel will be back again-the "new" normal will be repeating old mistakes. Planes spreading polution and virusses. Less public transport, more cars, in already overcrowded cities also not the best idea. 

The (western) economy is based on debts and fossil fuel. "We" know it is killing is we do not know how to get out of this deadly trap. 

If humans want to stop being self-destructive they have to stop doing the things that cause self destruction. Use cars to a minimum, do not go for unnessicary travels-long distance. Or face the price of putting the bill for destructive behaviour on "the poor"-one day they stop paying !

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOHfn2m9nlU[/url] It ain't what you do it's the way that you do it

DJ-Again a link [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/human-lab-rats-us-governments-secret-history-grisly-experiments[/url]

Human rights is a goal if we want to see ourselves as civilized. In history so many times people treated other fellow humans "as garbage-or worse"-and there is always an excuse for it. We have to try to do better....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 25 2020 at 11:48pm

DJ Time for an evaluation-were are we now ?

-[url]https://covid19.healthdata.org/netherlands[/url] models expect Covid19 to become less of a problem in June/July (with possible a second-major wave in fall/winter)

-The only action to get some grip is Non Pharma Intervention (NPI) (Belgium will ease its lockdown step-by-step by mandatory use of facemasks in public transport, shops etc.)

-Without NPI the pandemic would be out of control. (It is wrong to claim "the lockdown was there just to protect "grandparents"-NPI protected the healthcare system-and with that-the society AND the economy)

-Without an economy there can not be a healthcare system. Using masks, clever social distancing (the Ford wristband sending an alarm when someone comes into a 1,5meter/6feet radius) could have enabled more room for economic activities.

-What so far is missing is an evaluation for a new normal. What activities can go on the old way, what activities need measures (less pupils in a class-or larger classrooms, e-learning, in public transport app to make reservations for a trip ?, screens between seats ?) and what activities may have to (almost) disappear (it costs the Dutch taxpayer 2 to 4 billion € to keep KLM the Dutch airline company "a live" for up to half a year. It is not realistic to expect airtransport will be over 100% of 2019 market in 2021. Airline companies have to become much smaller and cleaner)

-Macro-economic questions, airpolution make respitory illnesses much worse, people more vulnarable-what does that mean for the car-industry, logistics. Do we produce for profit or basic needs. How to put prices for products-meat would be far more expensive when you include enviromentel costs. Do we want a "global market" or produce most products in our own region ? Who decides on that ?

-Geo-political how will the new global economy work out ? China needs large exports, what if there will be less markets for most of its products ? If we accept less travel, more working from home-there will be less demand for fossil fuels.

-Psychological effects-the lockdown gave us time for reflection on what has most meaning for us and what we can do without. Do we want to work hard to spent most of the money we make on cars to stand in traffic jams, the newest mobile phones that will unable you to find rest even at home ? What is important for us and why ? 

DJ-This corona-crisis will be with us-one way or the other-in the coming years. We have to learn to deal with it. Be happy if there is room to deal with it-some room for choices. In my opinion the above evaluation may be optimistic. Already there are warnings Health Care Workers HCW may react different when there is a large second wave. They are humans-burn-out, stress, risk of getting infected, frustration on (lack of) rules in society (for wich they deal with the outcome; people getting ill). 

It is hard for politics to make policy with this much uncertainties. In my opinion giving support to sectors that contributed to the present crisis (that produce air polution, transport virusses) is a wrong choice. We may need the money for essentials, food production, healthcare, education, provide income for those that can no longer work. All the rest may be luxery we can no longer afford. 

Politics does not yet realize that the "new normal" has to be very different from the "old" normal because of the enormous economic impact the coronacrisis has. We can not solve our problems with old ways that created those problems-we need to find new ways !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2020 at 1:49am

DJ-some backgrounds;

-USGS I still do not like "patterns" -major risks for a M8+ quake this year (DJ-I am not a scientist-most likely statistics will give already an over 50% chance for an 8+. Japan Times had a warning for a M9+ [url]https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/21/national/m9-quake-30-meter-tsunami-hit-northern-japan-government-panel/#.XqLfchkvPnE[/url])

A government panel said Tuesday that tsunami as high as 30 meters could hit Hokkaido in northern Japan and Iwate in the northeast if a magnitude 9 earthquake occurs along sea trenches off the country’s Pacific coast.

The group of experts made the warning based on a worst-case scenario and said a mega-earthquake centered around the Japan Trench and the Kuril Trench off northern parts of the country could be “imminent.”

-[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/04/a-warning-of-things-to-come-invest-90e.html[/url] ;

The earliest tropical depression ever recorded with a 50% chance of developing in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. It is a full three weeks or 21 days before the official season begins on May the 15th. The tropical disturbance called Invest 90E by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is located about 900 miles south of the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula.[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season[/url], [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Pacific_hurricane_season[/url] extreme weather

-[url]https://thesaker.is/what-war-between-the-united-states-and-iran-could-look-like/[/url], China-US tensions may bring us wars out of control. A US attack on Iran is hurting China's oil import from Iran AND hurting Russia's  (and Saudi) position as oil exporter (because oil prices would go up to such a level US shale oil would make a bit of profit.DJ-A large scale US attack on Iran is unacceptable for both Russia and China. In case of a large scale US attack Russia may use "its means" to make clear the US has to stop or face the consequences.)

The US-Iranian standoff in the Persian Gulf has once again entered an acute phase. On April 22, US President Donald Trump announced that he had ordered the US Navy to “shoot down and destroy” Iranian gunboats that follow or harass US ships. In response, Commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, Major General Hossein Salami declared on April 23 that Iran will provide a swift, “decisive” and “effective” response to US forces if they threaten Iranian “vessels or warships”.

One of the reasons behind the escalation is the consistent and strengthening anti-Iranian rhetoric of the White House as a part of Trump’s presidential campaign. Another driving force of the US actions is likely the sharpening global economic crisis and the turmoil on the energy market that has led to the dramatic collapse of oil prices. Indeed, a new conflict in the Persian Gulf could theoretically return the oil prices to $50-60 per barrel.

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/04/on-coronavirus-and-smoking-infection-fatality-rates-and-more.html[/url]

It was really curious that during a respiratory disease epidemic current and former smokers were less prone to end up in an ICU than people with other preconditions. (It was also a psychological relief for this chain smoking blogger but should be NO reason for anyone to start this otherwise dangerous habit.)

-

Nicotine is known to influence the process that regulates the number of ACE2 receptors on the cell surface. Current smokers do have less ACE2 receptors than non smokers. SARS-CoV-2 bonds to that receptor to enter a cell.

The study was led by Professor Jean-Pierre Changeux who is quite famous for his discovery of that general regulation process and other findings. He now plans to use nicotine patches on Covid-19 patients to see if it can help in current cases.

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/capitalism-life-support-time-cure[/url];

The Covid-19 pandemic is unleashing obscene bailouts of Western industries and companies, as well as lifelines for billionaire business magnates.

It is grotesque that millions of workers are being laid off by corporations which are in turn receiving taxpayer funds. Many of these corporations have stashed trillions of dollars away in tax havens and have contributed zero to the public treasury. Yet they are being bailed out due to shutdowns in the economy over the Covid-19 crisis.

Why aren’t the banks and corporations being forced by governments to pay for their workers on sick leave or in lockdown?

It’s because the governments are bought and paid-for servants of the top one per cent. Some political leaders are the embodiment of the one per cent, like Donald Trump and senior members of the U.S. Congress.

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2020 at 9:49am

DJ - I really appreciate your thoughts and summaries of PP.  I haven't been on here for a few days, and haven't watched his videos in a couple of weeks either. Just too overwhelmed by it all.  

A few days ago you said "As PP puts it: It did not have to be this way. Mismanagement, inaction, stupidity are the main reasons for this crisis. Are humans self-destructive ? It looks that way ! "

Turning that from a question to "humans are self-destructive" actually gives me a new perspective and a lot of emotional relief.

(true or not, I needed that emotional relief right now, so I'm sticking with it!)

THANK YOU.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2020 at 10:42am

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQeU1n8zE14[/url] 

DJ-I did read somewere one tablespoon of oil is the same amount of energy as "a healthy worker has for an eight hour day". We do not have to be self destructive-there is always a choice. I believe in small ecological footprints, respect for nature of wich we are part-not above....

I'm a hippie born to late, thank you for your thank you KiminNM !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 26 2020 at 1:21pm

Just another quick Thank You Josh, to let you know that I read what you post and find it very educational and interesting. Thanks again, Tabitha :)


'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius

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