Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately

Thanks for these graphs and keeping us posted

I agree with you on this one!!!

I do.  But he won't do anything like that until testing gets on track.  That won't happen until the end of next week.  After that, I think it will be about two weeks and lock-down will be considered for any municipality that shows infections of .5% of the population.  For example, NYC has a population of around 8 Million.  I think once infections gets past 40,000 they'll consider locking down to stop this from spreading.  

 Dang you are scary with your predictions and accurate!  Thank you!  You are very smart and an asset to this Forum!  Take care of yourself you do so much work! 

Japan's numbers are lower because they are not as aggressively testing, imo. 

Thanks for the feedback. I'm just a regular guy, but do try to think critically, rationally, logically. 

We are at a dangerous moment. It's simply denial to believe otherwise. I've been surprised it has developed like this. But denial can be dangerous, even more dangerous I think, than panic. At least panic gets you to act to prepare. 

Calmly prepare. 

Yesterday, the director of the Santa Clara County Public Health Department in San Jose, CA, recommended all families prepare for a possible 1-2 week isolation. She was warning everyone. 

It means the images didn't post correctly. 

I know this site is run by volunteers and God Bless them, but I don't have time to keep trying to repost. 

The images were projections. Exponential (hyperbolic lately) growth overall, also in South Korea,  Italy, Iran, Germany, France, Japan, (also Thailand but not showing yet because they're not testing, saying it's 'viral pneumonia' -2500 cases now).

We'll see large jumps until the near future until large scale mitigation/containment efforts at the country level (hasn't happened yet). 

Remember I posted Los Alamos Nat’l Lab Estimates R-0 of 4.7 - 6.6 before control measures, 2.3 - 3.0 after control measures. 

Big trouble brewing, and soon. The UN Secretary General in front of the Security Council lectern just issued a statement advising all countries to act post haste to prepare, and not to panic. 

This Twitter feed has amazing graphs now: 

https://twitter.com/jodigraphics15 

From now on, I'll post some interesting projections from time to time. 

A couple new charts I made. The daily increase was about the same as yesterday - which is relatively a good thing. 

10,000 on track for March 2 though. Maybe tomorrow March 1 late, but I doubt it now, because, and just guessing, there is less testing and confirmations on weekends. 

Fascinating analysis. Compares mainland China rise with ex-China world totals, shifted by three weeks. 

Here's a chart (not mine).

I'll start projecting US growth soon. 

I fear the US will follow Italy, and currently Germany's and France's growth track. Particularly concerning is the Washington cluster which could lead to rapid initial growth in confirmations, and unknown community spread in Oregon and California, and possibly Chicago. 

Welcome to you and yours! There’s a whole lot of great information on these threads and even better people to help you out if needed. Poke around some, you’re bound to find new and interesting information and tons of tips on preparation. 

In the US, there's been 12 new cases today (total so far 84), so the previously posted "low" case (15%) is more or less on target at the moment. 

I expect this rate to pick up significantly now that testing capacity is coming online (FINALLY), diagnostic criteria was relaxed (FINALLY), and all health care settings are on the lookout for unexplained respiratory distress. (Sad that it had to take deaths first and a stock market correction to get policymakers to change course. That, and, I'm sure, some massive personal injury lawsuits from patients and exposed health care workers that I'm positive will be coming down the pike. It was just stupid and a known threat. 

Going forward in the US, I expect new confirmations to pick up significantly at first (approaching 25-30% /day increase, into the hundreds, and then towards 1,000, like Italy, then leveling off for a time as the reality sets in and people start to change behavior and the government places resources into the outbreak hot zones. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-plans-radical-expansion-of-coronavirus-testing/ar-BB10zu1m 

“If we had the ability to test earlier, I’m sure we would have identified patients earlier,” said Dr. Jeff Duchin, the health officer for public health in Seattle and King County, Wash., where the first death was reported on Saturday.

Both C.D.C. and the F.D.A. did have the option of adopting the test approved by the W.H.O., and public health experts said it was unclear why the agencies decided not to do so.

“In retrospect, it seems like a bad decision,” said one high-ranking C.D.C. official who requested anonymity and was not authorized to talk to the news media.

Good morning. Today is early on March 2, and there are 9,813 intl ex-China infections, as closely projected this past week. We'll reach 10,000 in a few hours. 

First cases of coronavirus in past 24 hours: - Moscow - Delhi - Berlin - Rome - Brussels - New York City 

And the WHO still won't declare a pandemic. They'll be forced to within the week I predict. 

The nomenclature won't matter now. Right now, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former FDA comish, said there are already "low thousands" of cases in US. I think there might be more, and soon. This is going to be a monster. Sorry, but I call it like I see it. Don't panic, but keep preparing yourself, your family, and your community. 

Squawk Box

@SquawkCNBC

·

1h

"There's probably low-thousands of cases in this country that we now need to turn over the card on. We are going to have a surge of cases before we actually catch up to the level of spread," says 

@ScottGottliebMD

 on #coronavirus.

The world has about 10 days before 100,000 and then again 10 days until 1,000,000 (they'll stop testing/counting by then it will be estimated or suppressed) if countries don't take more forceful, serious, drastic actions.

What that means for YOU, if your country is experiencing drastic growth  (or soon will) in confirmed infections, you can expect sudden, drastic changes in travel, policies, and life in general within certain affected regions, expanding outward, and then on a global scale.  Wuhan and Hubei residents (Italian cities and S. Korean regions) had little to no warning when the gates were shut.  Remember. Think. Plan. 

I'm looking at extrapolations and analysis suggesting that NYC has about 2,000 - 16,000 infections at the moment. I also saw video of military movement of CBRN team in Florida on Twitter. 

Remember, China locked down Wuhan when less than 1,000 confirmed cases,  and we see how that went, even after total lock-down. South Korean and Italy are in for a monster ride already, and so is the US with under-testing for the last six weeks. 

Do not be surprised when you see explosive growth of numbers in the US or elsewhere. 

This is the world's Wile E. Coyote moment, suspending in mid-air, with a look of shock and surprise. 

The WHO has failed the world. Dr. Fauci says we are in a pandemic. Period.  Doesn't matter what WHO says or not, by the way. China might actually be the safer place right now, because at least they accepted the true gravity of the situation. We will continue to see half-measures, and continue to see them fail. 

When will your leaders start taking more serious measures?

And, by the way, when you see  a country with the number of deaths at a much higher percentage crude CFR (ex: Iran, Italy, United States) than 3%, it means there are a LOT more infections than are being reported/confirmed. US has 6 deaths with 103 confirmed. That's nearly 6%. It also means that aggressive identification and testing of cases was not done, and the virus has had WEEKS to spread. 

That has wide ranging implications....getting worried about medicines, especially if china and India prioritize for their consumption first.