Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately |
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Pandemic
Adviser Group Joined: January 31 2020 Location: UK Status: Offline Points: 2725 |
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It is estimated that about 20% of cases are asymptomatic. These people are not aware that they have the disease but are still contagious. No wonder the disease is rapidly spreading.!! |
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Emswally
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 25 2020 Location: Idaho USA Status: Offline Points: 1380 |
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Had a co worker tell me he was sick of hearing about the Coronavirus BS. I really cannot fathom anyone not wanting to be prepared. Whats the worse that happens. You have a stockpile of food. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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I have to quote Flumom again: You can't fix stupid!" I must add that: "Disasters can." |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Glupa
Adviser Group Long term valued member Joined: January 28 2020 Location: SW Virginia Status: Offline Points: 1030 |
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Different places different people. In my very rural deep red part of the country people have been quietly but persistently stocking up to the point where our local grocery has had to begin rationing basic supplies and necessities. Not everyone can be judged solely based on voting habits. There are smart and dumb people everywhere on this globe. |
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BabyCat
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Well it seems South Korea is having success with their containment efforts their numbers have fallen five days in a row. Now with China's experience and South Korea's experience, it has been shown that the epidemic can be essentially slowed and perhaps even hold it long enough for a vaccine to be developed. However that is not true with other countries that have not enacted those kinds of measures as efficiently as South Korea and China has. For example Italy is now realizing what they need to do. The United States is not to that point yet but I think it will get there it's just a matter of time.it remains to be seen whether other countries can be as successful as South Korea and China, or if it's just the first wave. |
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BabyCat
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Well I'm still not optimistic about the next two to three months it is a reason for some hope.the question remains will other countries attacked those kinds of measure is? Eventually they will have 2 as Italy found out. So will the United States and other countries they are just going to have to power down and shut down until it's slow down enough. |
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Tabitha111
Adviser Group Joined: January 11 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 11640 |
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'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius |
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Hazelpad
Adviser Group Joined: September 09 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6910 |
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Please please watch from 11.16 to 18.40. That's just about 7 mins and it will make it all clear. Please watch For those struggling with what exponential growth means and why it's such a warning please watch below. It explains it quite well. Especially the analogy of the drop of water in a football stadium growing exponentially and when the spectator in the top tier finally realised they need to escape it may be to late. Anyway it helped me understand. Please please watch from 11.16 to 18.40. That's just about 7 mins and it will make it all clear. Please watch |
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Dicpunch
advanced Member Joined: May 15 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 34 |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Worldwide ex-China log chart starting to bend. Let's hope it continue... I think more people are starting to respond, stay home...airport traffic in Europe and NA down significantly...a little panic is not necessarily a bad thing. People making rational decision in the absence of poor government planning and inaction can help. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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But is it just a country's first go-round with a first wave? I imagine, like China, significant and prolonged power-downs for extended periods are necessary...a new normal until a vaccine? |
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KiminNM
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 22 2020 Location: NM Status: Offline Points: 6605 |
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YES YES YES, brilliant video. It is absolutely a MUST WATCH. |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Keep trying Kim. Not everyone will get it, (YCFS)* but a few will wake up. Just don't beat yourself up over the rest. *You Can't Fix Stupid - Thanks FM |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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Tabitha111
Adviser Group Joined: January 11 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 11640 |
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'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius |
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KiminNM
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 22 2020 Location: NM Status: Offline Points: 6605 |
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I just shared the Italy article by the doctor. Had to bite my tongue to not scream. And YCFS is my very favorite acronym right now! :-) |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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There are a few nice mantras out there. But that one is top of the list. I think it saved my sanity. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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KiminNM
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 22 2020 Location: NM Status: Offline Points: 6605 |
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I just shared the video again, and used Hazelpad's words about which minutes to watch. Thanks Hazelpad!!!! If someone can't take 7 minutes of their time to learn about this... <you all know me well enough by now to know what words go here!> |
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Tabitha111
Adviser Group Joined: January 11 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 11640 |
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Great video...I will be following him too! Case, Case, case, cluster cluster BOOM! |
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'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius |
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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That is mantra no. 2. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Hello friends, things are moving fast, and trying to stay safe. It is now very foreseeable mitigation events coming shortly in the Bay Area (and Santa Clara County specifically). Haven't had time for any charts, but https://twitter.com/jodigraphics15 has great ones. First, good news, as I discussed previously China's success with initial first wave containment, has been, up to now, fairly well duplicated in highly structured Asian societies that can scale up testing, institute large scale social distancing with public cooperation (and mandatory masks!!), etc. with Singapore, S. Korea, Hong Kong and the epi curve has definitely flattened for now... However, as we all know, Italy is only now doing the same, finally, and the first signs of curve flattening are emerging there. Right now, France, Germany, US ,etc needs to do the same, but unfortunately for many, political paralysis, ineptitude, identification of problem will thwart that for a while. But it can, and will work if we actually do it. As I initially projected by today, there are now over 1000 US cases (1005 and climbing by the minute). This was foreseeable as now wider testing is underway. Seattle is now becoming a ghost town. It will take a few more days for the US public to recognize the severity of this event, and the spread within other areas. Testing will be a key indicator, of course. The curve at the ex-China worldwide level (current count 37,822) is also starting to flatten slightly (mostly due to S. Korea's progress) and I hope that continues. The whole point of this thread, and the efforts of many others across the internet, on Twitter, Facebook, has been to warn of the dangers on uncontained exponential spread. Fortunately, the warnings are finally being heeded. I hope the damage is limited. What this does mean, is that increasing regional containment/shutdowns, then perhaps national level, are likely inevitable for France, Germany, the US, and others. Some will get there later, some sooner. We knew this was a possibility. Take care!
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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Because of the severe under-testing, current ramp up in testing capacity and relaxation of testing criteria, and the infection to detection lag time, I expect we'll see 10,000 US cases in one week or less (3/17). If the US moves quickly within this time frame, the curve towards 100,000 can be bent, but a political decisions at local, state, and national levels need to be made, and made quickly to prevent the US from reaching 100,000 as quickly, or if at all. But regular people don't have to wait for the bureaucrats or politicians, and I believe the American public, when seeing the rise in cases, will choose to do so. The worst thing the government can continue to do now is downplay or minimize the threat. It is real, it is severe, and it is now. The choice is now ours. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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At this point, in the US, in my opinion, a partial shutdown is inevitable for the West coast, and large parts of the Eastern Seaboard, and a few other places. It will, and must happen sooner or later, or we'll face grave consequences, including health care system overrun, extremely high death rates, etc. Political denial is still very strong, though. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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BabyCat
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This has been posted elsewhere, but so important, I also wanted to post it here: RT : Here’s the coronavirus data, overlayed with the dates offset by the amounts shown. One of these countries is not like the rest. Everyone else will be Italy in 9-14 days time. |
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BabyCat
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Here's a better model than mine. Probably closer to what actuals will be than pure exponential, considering people are trying somewhat hard not to become infected, and have been for some time. |
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BabyCat
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175 |
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An important projection for the US. I think we'll hit 10,000 by 3/18. Still many reports of testing kit shortages. Governors in many states saying they can't get enough kits, need more. Another example, officials can't test other residents or workers yet surrounding California's newest nursing home death in Sacramento because of testing limitations: The US is in for a world of shock and hurt in the next two weeks with the spread of the virus. We're looking at a cascading disaster along the lines of Wuhan Jan. 23. At that time, when the decision was made, China had 830 infections, 26 deaths). The US has more than both of those now. Still no strong mitigation measures. Sure, the Ro was probably higher in China because of pop. density, crowding, but still US cities will be hit very, very hard. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51230011 The US still haven't responded with strong, necessary mitigation measures. They're linear responses to an exponential problem and will waste valuable time, and cause more deaths. The virus has been circulating in the US since mid-January. FACT. But we still are not testing thoroughly!! It's absolutely insane. Instead, Congress is spending their time on "financial stimulus" measures and possible cruise/airline/oil industry bailouts. Where the hell is the PPE?? Where is the coordination from FEMA/HHS/CDC on disaster contingency planning for hospitals?? The next two weeks are going to be extraordinarily bad in the US. I would not be surprised if the NYSE and other exchanges were halted/closed or selling banned..the administration cares more about $$$, than people. This much is crystal clear right now. Look at ACTIONS, not WORDS. |
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BabyCat
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Good morning. 1,062 reported US infections. Recall at around 72 US reported infections I provided three cases, low, medium, high cases for next two weeks or so (15%,25%,35%). Here are the actual percentage increases. They would have been larger iff the US was testing more, but it still is not. Still is major testing limitations (CDC missing reagent, for example, right now). The US policy was #don'ttestdon'ttell . It was, and still is, an abdication of their public responsibility to protect people's health and lives of the highest order.
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BabyCat
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Spain's confirmations are rising rapidly. Now 2,124 (49 deaths), overtakes Germany, France, US. As expected, where one country levels off (S. Korea, others fill in the gap). |
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BabyCat
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Not a good sign (or maybe a good one). Once the grim realization of reality sets in among senior US officials, I would expect dramatic mitigation measures. The risks of sudden change just escalated. But, I believe the risks of continued bureaucratic missteps are also high. Based on the delays and mistakes so far, I believe they're going to react poorly, and in many of the wrong directions, imo. Rep. Maloney says she plans to end the coronavirus hearing early because health officials testifying before Congress have been called to the White House for an "emergency meeting" https://c-span.org/video/?470224-1/dr-redfield-dr-fauci-testify-coronavirus-response |
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BabyCat
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Responding to a comment by a member who said some of the exponential projections didn't happen, such as with China or S. Korea. That is true. Because they locked down to reduce Ro. They are unbounded, uncontained projections. They are warnings, not inevitabilities. It is important to try to see the difference. · BREAKING: Coronavirus Update. Rapid growth indicates local lockdown for Europe is insufficient. National lockdowns needed. China locked with 800 cases, 80,000 at end. Accordingly: Italy will have 730,000, Germany 190,000, France & Spain 230,000 if they lock today. WHY WAIT? Show this thread |
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BabyCat
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1366 US, but likely many thousands more. Total u.s. testing capacity is around 15,000 per day and won't be increased substantially until the end of the month. The u.s. is in for a world of hurt, sadly. 49,754, ex-China, definitely on track for 100k by 3/15-3/16.. subject to testing limits. Doubling every 3-4 days atm.. have been SIP, limiting contact, fewer charts but you can all see the trend |
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BabyCat
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In just Ohio alone, estimates of 100,000 infections or more. This is a DISASTER. I estimate currently 50,000 - 250,000 Americans currently infected. We do NOT have the testing capacity. |
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BabyCat
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As I've projected was a possibility during this time frame, rapid changes were expected. Within 7 days I expect state-level mandatory travel restrictions and essentially most of the country will SIP whether mandated or not - most people will respond. I fully expect a Presidential emergency declaration by Tuesday. If death rates start to climb as a percentage of identified cases, that will be a terrible, terrible sign. |
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BabyCat
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I hope I am wrong. Pray that I am. But the truth is the US and the rest of the world need to change behavior immediately. |
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BabyCat
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BabyCat
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Time for some review.. On March 1st, I said: I've modified this chart. It projects worldwide (ex-China) totals for March. Possible: 100,000 by March 12-20 1,000,000 by March 23-April 7 |
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BabyCat
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Posted February 23rd... |
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BabyCat
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Initially posted February 8... 53,171 reported infections so far today ( https://covid2019.azurewebsites.net/ ) Predicted 60,000 worldwide ex-China by March 24. I think it's safe to say we'll reach that before then. Predicted 1,000,000 worldwide ex-China by April 8. I think it's also safe to we'll reach that before then. |
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BabyCat
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My how time flew, didn't it? Now the new messaging is starting to be "everyone's going to get it" but if you're not older or have an existing condition, you'll probably be fine. P.S. The standard M,O. for many political systems when faced with internal instability from economic or other disruption/corruption/incompetencce is to escalate foreign crises to divert attention, anxiety...WAR. Just saying....watch out.... |
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BabyCat
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KiwiMum
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I was thinking much the same. |
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Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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pheasant
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Hey Babycat, Your hard work, and dedication is so much appreciated, Thank You! Now....go get some rest, we need you here fresh and alert....don't burn out, take a break. Incredible synopsis.
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The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR
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Technophobe
Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450 |
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Hubby has been saying much the same thing to me for weeks. I kinda ignored him as the bug alone is enough to worry about. Now you all have me even more worried. |
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How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving. |
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BabyCat
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I'll go watch a movie now.. and listen to "It's the End of the World As We Know It, and I Feel Fine.." '80s reference.. |
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BabyCat
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Ok, the Ohio estimate is way too high imo, due to the below. Also, if this is true, four weeks ago, would have been 1800 cases 4 weeks ago, which would lead to roughly 36 deaths in Ohio today. No reported deaths so far at all. It seems a little high to me, but then again, there is a 3-4 week delay to infection to death for most people...working backwards at a doubling rate of 5 days (high side): 3//12 100K 3/7 50K 3/2 25k 2/26 12.5k 2/21 7.25K 2/16 3.625K 2/11 1813 2/5 906 1/31 453 1/26 227 1/21 113 1/16 56 Nah...too high by about a factor of 10 I call BS. I'll correct my exponential thread. |
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