Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately

Here's something that will flip your lid to think about..

t generally takes 3-4 weeks to die after infection. If there are suddenly 18 deaths in Iran as of today (from 0 beginning yesterday), it should be obvious the virus has been circulating a while, because people don't all of sudden die immediately upon infection. In other words, likely since or before Jan. 22..So, Iran, now, at 18 deaths, and at a 2% CFR, implies there were 900 infections 3-4 WEEKS ago, and it has been spreading unrecognized since then. SO...How many today?

My guess? 20,000-40,000 have it now in Iran. No joke. When COVID-19 exploded from Wuhan because they could no longer conceal it from the world, it was Jan. 21, with estimates of 75,000 infected or so. But back on December 31st, there were 41 serious cases, probably of a larger group that perhaps numbered a 500-1000 by 12/31. It's that kind of history that is illustrative. It seems that neither the world, nor Iran, apparently, doesn't yet fully understand or appreciate the complete nature of the storm that is upon them or will soon be (or they do, and will try to crack down worse than China).

Same logic applies with S. Korea, suddenly 7 deaths. Circulating for weeks. 763 confirmed at the moment. Likely thousands more. For weeks. Traveling to other parts of S. Korea, Japan, Asia, Indonesia, the United States, Europe...probably right now...may not even know they are infected. Right now, anywhere.

Up late, can't sleep. 2,330 cases and climbing by the minute.

As I mentioned before, friends, things will start to move very quickly. Iranian cases now showing up in Bahrain and Kuwait (Canada), reports of 50+ deaths in Qom, Iran, by the mayor, reports of testing limit breaches in Italy (where the local mayor was also symptomatic), massive additional testing in S. Korea, positive Koreans in Israel, it's all erupting in many places simultaneously it seems. It will increase even further. I fear people who haven't really considered this possibility are going to start to panic, unfortunately.

At the moment, I'm considering accepting the possibility that the old exponential models I was using are now no longer valid, and the international world has entered a new exponential, possibly hyperbolic, phase. I still have to work out what that may look look in this next phase of spread. But, I think we may reach 10,000 cases not only by March 7-9, or March 5th, but sooner, and perhaps in even a week. It may take two weeks from now to see that this has been the case, though.

The way the numbers are climbing reminds me of the early phases of Wuhan confirmations. Essentially, the infections already exist, they had weeks to grow and spread, and now it's just a matter of testing/confirmation catching up.

Fairly soon, after perhaps a new exponential, or even hyperbolic stage, and mitigation, the rise will start to curve back down on the log chart, as we have seen with the China data, but I think it will be an enormous, ongoing, country by country, battle worldwide, and it's only just begun.

The following charts are what I'm considering at the moment. The first, is a basic primer on the way these two curves, exponential and hyperbolic would look in a case like this. The second, is an example of the early phases of Wuhan's confirmation, before I think Xi's directive to squelch the data.

One should also keep in mind, too, at some point, many governments will just stop (or not even start) testing and focus scarce resources on emergency medical care and community mitigation efforts. That's what I'll be doing in a sense as well, preparing. Take care.

Surely, the hyperbolic phase would be temporary as the the current doubling rate outside of China appears rapid.

Sadly, we did not learn from the Wuhan disaster.


World governments could have shut down all transport systems for a period of time. This action alone could have saved the unfolding scenario.

Now its a case of catchup😿

BabyCat wrote: t generally takes 3-4 weeks to die after infection. If there are suddenly 18 deaths in Iran as of today (from 0 beginning yesterday), it should be obvious the virus has been circulating a while, because people don't all of sudden die immediately upon infection. In other words, likely since or before Jan. 22..So, Iran, now, at 18 deaths, and at a 2% CFR, implies there were 900 infections 3-4 WEEKS ago, and it has been spreading unrecognized since then. SO...How many today? My guess? 20,000-40,000 have it now in Iran.

Isn't this in a way a good sign though? If say 30,000 have it and now a 100 die, doesn't that mean that the rate of death from this is way lower then 2%?
Maybe I'm looking at this wrong (another sleepless night) but if 30,000 have it and even if takes another few weeks for the deaths to catch up, won't the CFR end up being way lower? I'm hoping...
Or are you thinking that if 30k have now in another few weeks at 2% CFR there will 600 dead? This whole looking in the review mirror as someone said, sure makes calculating numbers harder...

And again - I think the 'other fallout' economic, lack of hospital/ICU beds even for other conditions, panic of Joe Public etc etc will cause more death then the illness itself... but death is death and when it's a loved one it hurts just the same regardless of cause.

Good chart (but ignore China numbers, they're bunk). It includes number tested - reasonably accurate - current US CDC numbers on website is 426. Some recent information missing (like Italy's testing data)

Did you get a bit of shut eye? We will probably all burn the midnite oil going forward!

Percent of world infected by virus...

10%

5%

1%

.05%

.005%

0   -----------------------------------------------------------------------
Dec 1        Jan 1             Feb 1        Mar 1

double post

By the way, Marc Lipsitch, Harvard, one of premier infectious diseases experts in the world, said his best guess is currently 100-200 cases circulating in the US right now. I agree, but think it's probably more, and will be more, soon. At 2% CFR in 3-4 weeks, right about now, we should start seeing some serious cases about now. The next 2-3 weeks should be rather interesting.

https://twitter.com/mlipsitch

About pandemic verbiage, the WHO is clueless, you can read some of the tweets on Twitter, here's a sample: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing

There are no "phases" anymore, nor 'declarations'. It's all just continued word play and intentional confusion, in my opinion. It's a travesty.

Quote:
- "Serious mistake was made not to quarantine people who arrived in Italy from China" said Walter Ricciardi of the WHO,


*Comment: Gee, ya think?*

adding that "within two weeks we will know if we are facing an epidemic" and advising that, for the next two weeks, people "should avoid crowded places: metro, buses, trains, schools, discos, and gyms."
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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The US is also going to learn the hard way it should have mandated quarantine
for all visitors who had been in China, not just Wuhan or Hubei...In fact, worldwide, even better. But, then again, that would require bold leadership from the WHO, or the UN, and let's face it, that wasn't about to happen because China would have whined.

Ok, time for some review of prior projections, to see how well they fared.

Today is later on 2/24, and there are 2,491 worldwide infections outside of China (38 deaths).

I'll start with the scariest chart (not mine) from the beginning of this thread. It didn't happen *yet* for many reasons. China shut down, essentially completely, Then, they burned the data along with their dead. No one believes there are only 2600 dead and only 70,000 infected in China. Not the US, not any serious expect. The undercount is by a factor of at least 5-10 times.

Maybe, though, China, bought the world some time.

This doubling chart was a low estimate, already.



While this 14% chart was quite accurate till now, and now, is low.

This chart is also still very accurate:



But this is low already

Again, the doubling chart is way off, and under, which suggests doubling time may be less than 6 after all, perhaps 5, or even 4, as I mentioned way earlier in this thread.



This one is still an open question.

Finally, a couple more recent ones.

These two still look ok now, but a few more days will tell. I have the sense something has definitely shifted and we'll see an explosive rise, shortly, but I do try to just look at the numbers and see what they're telling us.

BabyCat wrote: -- The pandemic has started. But, I truly disagree it will be a mild hit. It will upheave societies and reverberate for months. Unless a country can impose draconian crackdowns like China and isolate an entire province (where supposedly the CFR is 4%- my best guess is there have been 50,000 deaths or more), everyone's in for a heap of trouble. At 1% CFR and a severity rate of 4% (now on the lower side I think, with continually updated intl data, that will mean shocking numbers of deaths... Do the math. Follow the logic. Lipsitch, cautious Harvard epi. expert: 40-70% of the globe = 7.5 Billion * (.4 to .7) = 3.0 to 5.25 BILLION INFECTED 1% of 3-5.25 BILLION? 30 - 52.5 MILLION PEOPLE DEAD 4% SEVERE ILL? 140 to 210 MILLION SEVERELY ILL. This was just a projection for 1917/18 Influenza pandemic redux for the modern era.

Thanks. Sometimes I don't like being right. But it's my nature to try.

The above I'd love to be wrong about.

Lol, exponential numbers are spooky, except when I imagine earning continuously compounded interest...

Math joke:
Q:Do you know why the absolute value function (ex: |x|=x, |-x|=x ) is always the most optimistic function?
A: Because it turns every negative into a positive.

Maybe I should use those in my charts...

Now, for some really scary s%$%!

From recent press conf. of Joint WHO-CHINA mission:




Given my post above, let's run the numbers from Marc Lipsitch's estimate for the 40-70% of the world infected by COVID-19 shall we?

7.5 Billion people - 40-70 % infected -> 3 - 5.25 BILLION

13.8% SEVERE -> 414 MILLION to 724,500,000 MILLION PEOPLE VERY SICK

6.1% CRITICAL -> 183 MILLION TO 320.25 MILLION PEOPLE IN CRITICAL CONDITION

2.3% FATALITY RATE? --> 69 MILLION to 120.75 MILLION DEAD

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This is not a drill.

They will have to close schools churches kid sports professional sports concerts.   This is going to get interesting.

Good morning - early on Feb 25, and 2705 infections and climbing. As projected back on the 8th, we'll likely hit 3,000 by Feb. 27th, maybe even today or tomorrow.

The following charts are mostly from yesterday's data.

Some updated projections:

2/25/20 evening, and at 2,931 so far (close to 3,000 as projected). Perhaps it will pass 3,000 tonight, but for sure by the end of tomorrow.

Here's the current projections, if spread continues similarly. This assumption, to me, is reasonable because the world has tried its best to stop the virus from spreading through travel restrictions, screening, quarantines, contact tracing, etc., but the infectious spread just marches on as the exponential trend has demonstrated. In fact, I think there is a risk for explosive growth in areas which are unable to respond quickly enough (e.g. Iran) or places with high rates of travel and urban concentration (Europe), and there may be a "Wuhan" moment somewhere, where the virus suddenly erupts. Not sure where, but perhaps Japan, Europe, or Iran. The fact that more than several Iranian travel cases (people who visited Iran) are now being confirmed as positive in other countries signals a very large and significant spread (as does the story of the Deputy chief of Health in Iran becoming infected), the US CDC and State Dept travel warnings to S. Korean, Japan, etc., and Japanese decision to focus efforts on mitigation rather than containment signals significant spread very, very soon.

5,000 by Feb. 29
10,000 by March 5
100,000 by March 20
1,000,000 by April 5
10,000,000 by April 19