HK , Jpn Spore Transmission Charts:Sustained H2H

Local cases in general circulation. Interesting connections and timelines.
Conclusion: Singapore, HK, and Japan currently have sustained human-to-human transmission that is uncontained.

Marc Lipsitch, head of infectious disease at Harvard, like so many other experts, say pandemic likely:

https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1228374291802017793
Why do I think a pandemic is likely? The infection is in many parts of China and many countries in the world, with meaningful numbers of secondary transmissions. The scale is much larger than SARS for example (where the US had many introductions and no known onward transmission)

I would post the charts, but it seems there is a problem uploading image files (says to delete from file manager, but there is no way to do that)

I did cut/paste - worked for me in search bar, but here it is direct (hoping this works)...


https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1228374291802017793

Fascinating! Thank you BabyCat!

Tedros ' Twitter feed, he is getting his %ss handed to him .

So why are all these cities shut down if this not any different than a severe respiratory illness...sorry I do not buy that one CRS. This is a lot worse than we know friend out of the Pentagon says they know the numbers are way low.   Military know how many bodies are being burned because they can see from satellites. I will not dismiss this one as lightly as you seem to be doing.

Why is the military setting up quarantine areas across the country if this is not that bad?

Ruh-oh.
--

Max Howroute▫️
@howroute
11 infected on Tokyo tour boat, likely transmitted #coronavirus to non-passengers. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government says the virus may be spreading in the capital, as people not at the party - including an office worker were also confirmed infected.
https://twitter.com/howroute/status/1229506225781510145

https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200217/p2a/00m/0na/012000c

11 infected on Tokyo tour boat, likely transmitted coronavirus to non-passengers
February 17, 2020 (Mainichi Japan)

Japanese version


This electron microscopic image provided by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and GISAID (Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data) shows the new coronavirus.
TOKYO -- A sudden spike in new coronavirus cases was confirmed among attendees at a New Year's party for independent taxi drivers held on a traditional "yakatabune" river tour boat in the capital.

【Related】New coronavirus cases further spread in Japan, some infection routes unknown
【Related】Editorial: 1st Japan coronavirus death spotlights need for moves to prevent epidemic
【Related】Japan's 1st in-hospital coronavirus transmission suspected in Wakayama Pref.
The Tokyo Metropolitan Government says the virus may be spreading in the capital, as people not at the party -- including an office worker and a chauffeur -- were also confirmed infected, and is calling for measures to prevent transmission. It provided information on the route of infection among party attendees at a Feb. 16 press conference.

The New Year's party was held on Jan. 18 by a branch of a private taxi union based in Tokyo's Jonan area, and was attended by about 70 taxi drivers and their families who dined on the boat. However, the windows were shut due to heavy rain, creating a confined space with insufficient ventilation -- the kind of environment where disease spreads more easily.

The metropolitan government has been conducting tests on around 200 people involved in the party, on the assumption that the infection had spread on the yakatabune boat.

An independent taxi driver in his 70s, who participated in the party along with his wife, had tested positive in Tokyo. He is the son-in-law of a woman in her 80s from Kanagawa Prefecture, south of Tokyo, who died on Feb. 13 -- Japan's first confirmed fatality from the COVID-19 illness.

The metropolitan government began investigating in the wake of the woman's death, and had confirmed 11 participants and yakatabune employees were infected with the coronavirus as of Feb. 16.

Two people who were not onboard the tourist boat also tested positive for the new virus: a female employee with the union branch in her 50s, who had contact with the taxi driver at work, and a doctor in his 60s at Makita General Hospital in Tokyo's Ota Ward.

A nurse at the hospital who tested positive for coronavirus on Feb. 15 had attended the New Year's party as a family member of one of the taxi drivers. The doctor had dined with the nurse along with other people on three occasions in late January.

(Japanese original by Koichi Uchida and Yoshikazu Takeuchi, Tokyo City News Department)