Going to Defcon 6 & Declaring Pandemic

Oh yeah! I forgot the wine and beer too! Back to the store again for me!

Albert, I respect and agree with your decision.

The rapidly hastening pace of infections in Iran and Italy, as well as the CDC’s recent teleconference, has removed whatever small doubt I had as to whether this would take off as a legitimate pandemic.

We sat down with our kids today and explained what “shelter in place” means, and how our lives may soon change.

I am completely terrified because my son and husband are due to go on a school trip on March 5th — to GREECE. I don’t want them to go, but I also can’t tell them not to — right? This is such a scary, uncertain time.

Thank you all for everything you do — for sharing your knowledge and your experience!

Personally I don’t believe this is a slate wiper but that doesn’t mean its not a potential game changer. IMO anyone who thinks a SARS-2 pandemic is no biggie isn’t really thinking this through very thoroughly.

Its NOT the same as the common cold. And, among other things, because this is a new virus MANY MANY more people will contract this bug than do the flu so doing a numbers to numbers dismissive comparison with the annual flu report is disingenuous. Even a CFR of 0.5 (around 5x the normal flu CFR) would be devastating if the majority of a given population contracts the virus.

We of all people should know that its not only the bug that is dangerous in a pandemic but all the ancillary knock-on effects as well. Most of us here live in developed, industrialized nations (what many refer to as “first world nations”) whose populations are not prepared for the types of disruptions that accompany a pandemic situation. People are used to and even demand that they get what they want, when they want it and heaven forbid their internet search takes longer than 3 seconds or their latte is not as hot as they like it. People will panic and that panic will be fueled by others on social media.

Nothing I’m saying is new to those of us who pay attention (pretty much everyone here) but there’s the other 98% who live their happy lives unburdened by our knowledge and who would have a sharp and slippery learning curve to catch up to reality.

-Supply chain disruptions of various severities.
-Shortages of medicine and medical treatment availability for routine illnesses and accidents.
-Financial disruptions.
-School closures and related workday child care problems.
-Transportation service disruptions (ie: planes, trains and automobiles.).
-Social disruptions (faith and leisure activities).
-Potential layoffs and loss of income for the vast amount of workers whose jobs cannot be done remotely.
-Overloaded Social Services Departments (Unemployment offices, public assistance offices and the like).

And since we don’t live in totalitarian societies the draconian measures taken by the Chinese government and the CCP do not apply to the spread of the virus in the countries in which we do live. Spread will be faster, more people will need intensive medical intervention than can be provided, and supply shortages will cause secondary injuries and perhaps even deaths that otherwise wouldn’t have happened.

I think the folks here are prudent, not panicky and rightly so. Think of it this way. Even a Chihuahua can ruin your day if he catches you with your pants down.

Technophobe wrote: Admitedly I am not quite 60 yet, but Hubby is 75, a cancer patient (in remission) and has high blood pressure. He is an ex smoker too. So don't tell me this is nothing to worry about!! This has me terrified.

*ahem* pandemics happen all the time, but they are often under-reported or not even reported.  

Oh and when the AIDS-HIV came along I did not have sex...I did not want that either.   I got married instead to a wonderful man who also did not want HIV!

OH, and after he passed I AGAIN do not have sex...LOL and yes I am fine and very happy!!!

CRS: now I want to know what the worse things you have to worry about are!! Lol

CRS, DrPH wrote: FluMom wrote: Chuck will they shut down schools? Or do we go on like ok I am 70 and I may die but I will continue to work attitude. No, I don't predict schools being shut down.  I've written H5N1 response plans in the past, and we realized that schools gave shelter to students in the inner city as well as their only source of nutrition.   This will evolve into a community infection, and public health will grow accustomed to fighting it.  We did this with West Nile Virus, which came out of nowhere and has similar characteristics (elderly at risk).   SARS-CoV2 will probably be a regular problem going forward, this was entirely unavoidable.   However, we have so many more serious infectious diseases that folks do not take seriously: a) seasonal influenza is deadlier than COVID-19 by far, have you had your immunization?   b) measles will kill more cases than COVID-19 thanks to anti-vaxxers.   c) HIV is still around, and no, it is not only sex that is a transmission route.  Sorry to disappoint.   I'm off of AFT now, I'll check in when I return.

Yes I always get a quad flu shot...rather have 4 variants than 3 high dose
Get my dpt when recommended got measles vaccine and had the hard measles and almost died
HIV no blood trans fusions and no sex how else can I get it please tell it is not off toilet seats...lol
I take all diseases seriously that is why I have the full body suits with hoods, boots like they have for Ebola , disposable aprons goggles masks gloves. I lost one child I will do my best not to lose the only child I have left.

Newbie, NC girl, thank you. Prayers appreciated!

I'm very female and just 4"10' (but my feet keep growing - 4 sizes in as many years! - I'm Sideshow Bob's sister I think!). WillowbyBrat is my hubby and Technobrat my daughter.

My Dad used to say I had a man's mind. Maybe he was right.

I don't know. I've never heard of it either.

Weirdly I grew half an inch in height last year. I'm now officially 5'1'' and a half. I'm aiming for 5'3''. It just might take a while to get there. lol.

Not shrinking a redistribution of mass.

Back in 2005 I worked for DHS. One of the things I did was work on the H5N1 project for my area. The spread out of China is following the exact course we thought the H5N1 virus would spread from China.

I would guess, based on what we are seeing, we have about 60 days for final preps.

Things are getting in very short supply, like masks, gloves and other medical supplies.

I will be biting the bullet and ordering a full set of meds for myself and wife from Canada and pay full price. This will give me a small cushion in case it all goes bad.

Have the family ready, made a final order from Bulk Foods, prepared for a six month SIP for 10. Hope I do not have to use it.

Side note: I spent 4 months on a vent. Not fun. Could not walk for almost 5 weeks after I got off of it. Still can not take anything around my neck, like a pull over or sweater. I never, ever, want to go on a vent again.

Technophobe: Never doubt that what you are doing is right. One of the discussion we had was how long we expected people to SIP with out Government help. The initial length was a minimum of 6 months. This was reduced to 3 weeks by the DHS HQ then 3 days by HHS (too hard on the poor to stock pile more than that) The CDC almost walked out in discus, they supported our initial recommendations, saying the longer people could hold out in a SIP situation the better the people would have a chance to survive. If we were able to keep the lights on and the water flowing, it was felt that the American people would not panic.   

Lots more on that but I do not know how much is still classified so I will leave it at that.

Just know that the longer you can hold out, the greater your chances of survival and with the way it looks at this point in time, they will be able to keep the lights on and the water flowing.

As Technophobe said, THANK YOU Little Jake!

question about the Canadian pharmacy, you still need a prescription to order from there, correct? So ordering from there because insurance won't fill more than 3 months at a time I'm assuming...?

Hi BeachMama,

I don't believe CRS meant any harm with the statement, and was just being candid. I also don't believe it was an insult to all Chinese, but just more about some of the culture and what they eat, and how these viruses emerge from that. Chuck always seems to care about folks, and if he considers something a great risk for diseases to spawn, then he is outspoken about it. Many viruses emerge from China.

Anyway, Chuck is a good guy and he didn't mean any harm in it. It's almost similar to talking about a friend, and you say, God they can be an idiot at times, lol.

It's a toss-up between this virus being a lab accident, or from what they ate, and possibly a combination of both. And As the saying goes, "those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it", such as with things like this one.

Take care,
A


   

On another note, I suppose we're lucky that most deaths are with the elderly at this stage, although I believe many of those in serious / critical condition may not be elderly.

What's happening in Iran is still big concern. They seem to be dealing with a possible mutation. Since all of this is brand new and never seen before, still wonder if it could be really easy for this coronavirus to mix with another one, such as MERS. We know flu viruses mix, but could two super-corona bugs mix 100x easier and on instant contact? There are no studies on this as there have only been a few coronaviruses in history to ever make the leap from animals to humans, and we have never had two at once (that mutated from animals to humans) to be around at the same time. This is a very unique situation and many unknowns. If MERS & SARS are two cousins, it could be very easy for them instantly recombine on contact. The WHO needs to make gene sequencing in Iran a top priority, assuming Iran lets them in.

I realize this is just speculation, but the CFR in Iran sticks out like a sore thumb at the moment, and with the slate-wiping CFR there, lol.      

Chuck is one of the most if not the most knowledgeable on here, when it comes to pandemic disease information. In my opinion, now is not the time to be offended by anything he or anyone else says. There are way bigger problems coming our way that need attention.

Albert: Good call on your part. I was wondering when someone would start using the "P" word.

I would not expect the WHO to declare a Pandemic anytime soon.

When the WHO declares an official one, a whole lot of world wide laws by many nations go into effect.

This includes the closing of borders, holding of medical supplies in manufactured country for home use, stopping the shipment of food to other countries if deemed "critical" to the growing nation.

Lots of things which really make them very careful on declaring a "Pandemic".

The WHO will I believe call a Pandemic when it hits the U.S. and people are dying here. Why because of the stock market...Lord forbid the U.S. stock market drops. I believe the WHO should say this Covid19 most likely will be a Pandemic we suggest that you put in food and water in for your family for 2-4 weeks at home to help stop the spread of this virus.

Get real WHO people need time to purchase extra food/water most live paycheck to paycheck but people can at least stock up on food they would normally use so they can keep their families safe.

LittleJake, thanks for your post. Very insightful. I had a similar impression of the US. Around 45-60 days, but new hot spots likely sooner.

The WHO , Doctor Who and who what where and when are more trustworthy than the World Handout Organization. it is a mess, so we need to be more vigilant than the clowns who are in charge.