Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
USA deaths under-reported? |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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Posted: July 02 2020 at 12:50am |
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ksc
Adviser Group Joined: February 09 2020 Status: Offline Points: 10995 |
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The US is Dramatically Overcounting Coronavirus DeathsBut the problem is worse than this broad definition implies. Birx and others believe that the CDC is over counting cases. The Washington Post reports they are concerned that the CDC’s “antiquated” accounting system is double counting cases and inflating mortality and case counts “by as much as 25 percent.” There are additional reasons for concern. Some doctors feel pressure from hospitals to list deaths as due to the Coronavirus, even when they don’t believe that is the case, “to make it look a little bit worse than it is.” There are financial incentives that might make a difference for hospitals and doctors. The CARES Act adds a 20 percent premium for COVID-19 Medicare patients. |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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28% too low, or 25% too high? How does one deal with this difference? There is a problem when there might be multiple factors and how one interprets the relative weight of this. Personally, I find that viewing 'excess' deaths shows the over all effect of Corvid. This is taking a broader view of the total impact on society and it helps me avoid getting into arguments of what should or should not be counted. I favour this way of looking at the overall effect as it is clear that in many countries the reporting bias is to under count Corvid19 deaths (eg only those tested, or like in Russia only those deaths where Corvid19 is mentioned as the first factor). Also, maybe I have a pro-science bias, but I would also favour a scientific university study that has been published for peer review over a newspaper saying some "doctor said". |
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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Under-reporting doesn't surprise me much. I'll also take science over opinion. Science worked for my state. We also weren't a bunch of big fat babies and did what we were asked to do. But I've said it before, NYers are a different breed. We understand community and that your "civil rights" ends where mine begin. Including whatever virus you might be shedding. |
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ksc
Adviser Group Joined: February 09 2020 Status: Offline Points: 10995 |
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NY has some of the highest numbers in the world. Only time will tell if NY's herd immunity strategy will pay off in the future. |
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WitchMisspelled
Adviser Group Joined: January 20 2020 Status: Offline Points: 17170 |
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Herd Immunity strategy? What Herd Immunity strategy? You'd need to explain how NY is going for herd immunity. |
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kaye kaye
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 27 2020 Location: ohio Status: Offline Points: 3290 |
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I didn't realize that was what they were striving to accomplish. I thought they were just trying to knock off everyone in the care facilities and rest homes. |
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keep the joy
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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How can you possibly say "herd immunity" When we don't even know if you are immune from Covid once you have had it, even if you are for how long???? Totally "NOVEL" virus We don't know anything about..... |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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AandEM
V.I.P. Member Joined: March 06 2020 Location: IN Status: Offline Points: 1245 |
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I took advantage of the free antibody test offered by the Red Cross with a blood donation. I teach middle school and had symptoms in March, directly after our last day of face to face instruction. I had fever, cough, sore throat, and extreme fatigue for two weeks. I tried to get a COVID test at the time, was refused, but tested negative for flu and strep. I was hopeful to have had antibodies, but results were negative. |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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We are drastically under-counting COVID-19 deaths. Here is why: a) I did some of the earliest epidemiological work with Legionnaire's Disease shortly after the organism was identified. By going back in time and analyzing frozen tissue samples, it turned out that Legionella bacteria actually was causing a great deal of community pneumonia and death, but we weren't picking it up since it is a very hard bug to culture unless you know what you are doing. People who died from Legionella were simply identified as "pneumonia, cause not determined." Now we know that Legionella grows in cooling towers, shower heads, fountains etc. and can track outbreaks. Similarly, many deaths from COVID-19 are not characterized properly, particularly in the early stages of the pandemic. Assuming they kept tissue/blood samples, a retrospective study will likely show that deaths from COVID-19 were much higher than official numbers. b) COVID-19 kills in myriad ways. In addition to pulmonary failure, the SARS-CoV2 virus causes kidney failure, strokes and many other lethal conditions. In some cases, it is killing off people with these pre-existing conditions; in others, it seems to attack healthy people and causes strokes out of the blue. I'm sure that many mortalities are mis-identified on the death certificates, if there is no specific reason to suspect COVID-19. c) I'm not convinced that all of the testing is entirely accurate. Assuming a certain number of false negatives, cases are likely being undercounted. d) Political forces are pushing for an under-count to protect the stock market. Nobody talks about this aspect, although Pres. Trump says the virus will go away like a miracle. |
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CRS, DrPH
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