Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Deadly Hotspots |
Post Reply |
Author | |
EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Posted: July 31 2021 at 10:40pm |
There are a number of different ways the pandemic can be measured. The one I am looking at most often is deaths / million population, as this means that one can compare counties with different sized populations. The below figures are for the deaths/million recorded in July 2021. [Data taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ , but any transcribing errors are my own] July 2021 British Virgin Islands + 985 Saint Martin + 565 Namibia + 587 Ecuador + 560 includes (major, ie 40%, revision announced earlier in the month) Tunisia + 394 Paraguay + 287 Colombia + 274 Seychelles + 262 Argentina + 248 Fiji + 240 Suriname + 214 South Africa + 188 Brazil + 177 Botswana + 164 Russia + 160 Trinidad and Tobago + 159 High number of cases can lead to political unrest, such as in Tunisia where this month the President dismissed the Government over the handling of the corona crisis in the country. Indonesia with the second highest numbers of deaths in the month, after Brazil, does not make the above list due to its large population making the ratio of deaths to population 'only' 125 / million. One thing that saddens me this month is that I am seeing a number of countries that kept their rates low for a year suddenly see things explode. They are small states but the British Virgin Islands, Saint Martin and Fiji are in this category. |
|
EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Although, as Josh pointed out in Scenarios, the world averages are going down, there is a depressingly large number of countries where Covid-19 is raging. Many of those making this month's list are small island nations that would not have widespread health facilities. For many of them the managed the first year and a half of this pandemic with very low numbers then BAM ! August 2021 Countries with over 150 deaths / million in the month deaths/ million Martinique + 883 Guadeloupe + 742 French Polynesia + 701 Guadeloupe + 492 Georgia + 402 Martinique + 352 Sint Maarten + 391 Aruba + 336 Tunisia + 314 Fiji + 303 Botswana + 287 Eswanti + 267 Malaysia + 232 Cuba + 225 Sri Lanka + 221 North Macedonia + 213 Iran + 201 British Virgin Islands + 197 Saint Martin + 184 Kazakhstan + 181 Montenegro + 178 South Africa + 170 Bahamas + 170 Russia + 169 Trinidad & Tobago + 157 When one looks at how 'bad' this virus is, one should take into account the countries that are showing the worst effects, and this give some idea of how good medical intervention can help. ps. I lost my data base in the middle of the month and had to recreate it so there might be small errors in the monthly increases as I had to use the population data of the time of recreation and not as it was at the end of the month. One day I will learn the lesson of making regular back ups of my data! |
|
EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Need to skip Caribbean holidays for a while. Although the over all numbers are falling, there is still a depressing large number of countries that have seem over 150 deaths / million population in the last month. Mostly small island states, or Eastern Europe. But there are 4 larger states in the list:- Cuba, Malaysia, Russia and USA. September 2021 + Number of deaths/million in September Grenada + 1,210 [only one death recorded before this month] French Polynesia + 653 Bermuda + 613 St.Lucia + 525 Martinique + 443 Bahamas + 442 Guadeloupe + 422 New Caledonia + 412 [their first recorded death occurred this month] Georgia + 384 Antigua & Barbuda + 353 North Macedonia + 351 Sint Maarten + 344 Saint Martin + 328 Montenegro + 316 Malaysia + 294 Bulgaria + 290 Suriname + 279 Bosnia & Herzegovina + 248 Guyana + 209 Cuba + 188 Aruba + 186 USA + 176 Costa Rica + 171 Russia + 164 Lithuania + 164 Armenia + 160 French Guiana + 154 |
|
carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Has Delta hit there yet ?? |
|
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
|
EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Need to skip Caribbean and Eastern Europe holidays for a while. The world average has increased by 28.0 to 643.3 deaths / million. Last month's increase was 33.8, so an overall slowing down, but still there are a large number of countries currently with a very high death rate (which I classify as over 150 deaths/million). October 2021 Romania + 562 Grenada + 521 New Caledonia + 504 Bermuda + 469 Bulgaria + 455 St.Vincent Grenadines + 421 Suriname + 350 Armenia + 339 Lithuania + 331 St.Lucia + 292 Latvia + 289 {new to list} Montenegro + 282 Bahamas + 281 Georgia + 277 Bosnia & Herzegovina + 275 Ukraine + 265 {new to list} Moldova + 252 {new to list} Antigua & Barbuda + 232 North Macedonia + 222 Russia + 215 Sint Maarten + 205 Serbia + 199 {new to list} Belize + 188 {new to list} Martinique + 165 Guyana + 160 Trinidad & Tobago + 152 {new to list} Most of the countries that have seen over 150 deaths / million population in the last month, also had high figures for last month, meaning a long drawn out peak once Covid-19 is spreading fast in the country. I find it concerning that so many Eastern European countries are showing high death rates, as most of them were showing natural population declines before Corvid-19 hit. So their rate of de-population would be increasing.
|
|
carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
With the world opening up ,I wonder what new variants will spring up ,or the ones already out there now will have a few million more people to infect , It will be interesting !!!!!! Could be a tusunami.... Not a wave!!!!! Take care all 😷😉💉 |
|
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
|
roni3470
Adviser Group Joined: August 30 2006 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 5390 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
I have concern about things happening in China. We all know they lie to us about severity and we all know that they forced vaccinations on everyone. So the fact that they are closing down and recommending people stock up for winter is VERY concerning. Also, on top of that, I wonder what is happening down in africa in the remote villages we haven't heard about yet. Way too many places that really bad stuff could happen and we won't know until its too late! |
|
NOW is the Season to Know
that Everything you Do is Sacred |
|
EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Worldwide, November's death rate was lowish at 28 deaths / million (close to what it was in October) The Caribbean is still showing up in the list of countries with high death rates, but over all it seems to be declining there. But Eastern Europe is an on going DISASTER, with too many countries having very high death rates for two or more months. November 2021 - Countries with more than 150 deaths / million in the month Bulgaria + 650 Georgia + 505 Latvia + 501 Romania + 462 Ukraine + 422 Armenia + 417 Croatia + 414 {new to list} Hungary + 394 {new to list} Bosnia & Herzegovina + 337 Moldova + 331 Trinidad & Tobago + 328 Lithuania + 327 Montenegro + 325 Barbados + 263 {new to list} Slovakia + 253 {new to list} Russia + 251 Slovenia + 230 {new to list} North Macedonia + 216 Czechia + 215 {new to list} Greece + 215 {new to list} Belize + 211 Serbia + 200 Estonia + 196 {new to list} Poland + 175 {new to list} Antigua & Barbuda + 151
|
|
Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95867 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
DJ-Good info...December will be worse ! |
|
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
|
carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Love your realism DJ , I really don't see an end too this pandemic its going to be wave after wave, Covid has a great source/host for mutations..... The human population on the move 24/7 round and round the world....it will be forever mutating....... Never before in history has the human race faced a pandemic with a jet propelled virus,the fastest thing in 1918 was Steam engine.... And the population didn't travel much outside their country, Now take a look at how we travel around, I know people here who travel over seas 5/6 times a year...... There was a South African women on tv the other day saying how many times she had travelled to and fro from the Netherlands...... madness in a pandemic......... Slow burn,no end...... Take care all 😷😉💉 |
|
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
|
Post Reply | |
Tweet
|
Forum Jump | Forum Permissions You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot create polls in this forum You can vote in polls in this forum |