[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/12/ecdc-risk-assessment-on-transmission.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/12/ecdc-risk-assessment-on-transmission.html ;

Just over 10 days ago the WHO Reported the 1st Confirmed Cluster Of Sexually Transmitted MPXV Clade 1 in the DRC. Clade 1 Mpox is considered far more dangerous than clade IIb, which is currently spreading outside of Africa.

After presenting the evidence, the WHO warned that `The risk of mpox further spreading to neighbouring countries and worldwide appears to be significant.'  and that it poses `. . . an additional risk of mpox outbreaks with potentially more severe consequences than the one which has been affecting the world since 2022.'. 

 Last week, in CDC EID Journal: Clade I–Associated Mpox Cases Associated with Sexual Contact, the Democratic Republic of the Congo,  we looked at dispatch from the team in the DRC that discovered these clusters.  They wrote:

Population movement and previously unreported routes of transmission could exacerbate global distribution of MPXV, which could be compounded by the lack of routine diagnostic testing or inadequate access to rapid point-of-care testing. In view of this investigation, epidemiologic and genomic surveillance for MPXV, in both endemic and nonendemic regions, should be improved and strengthened. 

While obviously a concern, so far we've not seen any evidence of clade I transmission outside of the endemic regions of central Africa.  To be fair, however, clade IIb was probably circulating internationally long before surveillance first identified it in the UK in May of 2022. 

DJ, a total lack !!!! of basic testing for health risks in international travel made SARS-2/CoViD into a pandemic...We do NOT learn a thing even from recent past...

While reassuring, in the summer of 2021 - roughly 1 year before clade IIb Mpox began its world tour - the ECDC issued a risk assessment following a family cluster of Monkeypox cases in the UK (index case imported from Nigeria). 

DJ, [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mpox#Cause[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mpox#Cause ;

Mpox in both humans and animals is caused by infection with the monkeypox virus – a double-stranded DNA virus in the genus Orthopoxvirus, family Poxviridae, making it closely related to the smallpox, cowpox, and vaccinia viruses. The two subtypes of virus are Clade I and Clade II.^[1] Clade II is further divided into subclades: Clade IIa and Clade IIb. Cases identified as part of the 2022-2023 global outbreak are caused by Clade IIb.^[1] Clade I is largely limited to the DRC and is estimated to cause more severe disease and higher mortality than Clades IIa and IIb.^[26]

The virus is considered to be endemic in tropical rainforest regions of Central and West Africa.^[27] In addition to monkeys, the virus has been identified in Gambian pouched rats (Cricetomys gambianus), dormice (Graphiurus spp.) and African squirrels (Heliosciurus, and Funisciurus). The use of these animals as food may be an important source of transmission to humans.^[1]

^-

Mpox can be transmitted from one person to another through contact with infectious lesion material or fluid on the skin, in the mouth or on the genitals; this includes touching, close contact and during sex. It may also spread by means of respiratory droplets from talking, coughing or sneezing.^[1][28] During the 2022–2023 outbreak, transmission between people was almost exclusively via sexual contact.^[29] There is a lower risk of infection from fomites (objects which can become infectious after being touched by an infected person) such as clothing or bedding, but precautions should be taken.^[28]

The virus then enters the body through broken skin, or mucosal surfaces such as the mouth, respiratory tract, or genitals.^[1]

The natural reservoir of monkeypox virus is thought to be small mammals in tropical Africa.^[27] The virus can be transmitted from animal to human from bites or scratches, or during activities such as hunting, skinning, or cooking infected animals.^[1]

So eating/contact with infected animals may spread the virus...Also indirect contact (with the infected person leaving behind the virus in a hotel bed etc) could bring further risks...If less immunity after CoViD is (very likely)  also a factor we only can expect M-pox to become a major problem soon...

we are simply not stopping/reducing any risk "to save the economy"....

Some info on MPX; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory did get updated...76,713 confirmed cases, including susspected cases (at least) 86,780 global cases, 166 deaths (in these statistics) DJ-Given the still high numbers there may have been some mutations making it harder to contain...People may-for now-limit risks...but also that may decrease over time...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/949085-discussion-thoughts-on-a-global-outbreak-of-monkeypox?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/949085-discussion-thoughts-on-a-global-outbreak-of-monkeypox?view=stream ;

Monkeypox cases are plummeting. Scientists are debating why
...
26 OCT 202211:35 AMBYKAI KUPFERSCHMIDT

When monkeypox cases in Europe began to decline this summer, researchers’ first question was: Is it real? Some worried that people might not be getting tested because of receding fears of the virus, coupled with strict isolation requirements for patients. “They might be reluctant to be confirmed and be told not to go out at all,” says Catherine Smallwood, monkeypox incident manager at the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) Regional Office for Europe.

But the decline is now unmistakable. WHO Europe, which reported more than 2000 cases per week during the peak in July, is now counting about 100 cases weekly. In the Americas, the other major epicenter of the outbreak, numbers have dropped by more than half (see graphic, right). “We’re seeing a true decline,” Smallwood says.

Vaccines, behavior change among the most affected group—men who have sex with men (MSM)—and immunity after natural infection are all playing a role in that decline, says Erik Volz, an infectious disease modeler at Imperial College London, but how much each factor has contributed is unclear. “This is something we’ve debated a lot internally.”
...
In the United Kingdom, at least, vaccination campaigns have played a minor role, according to a model published as a preprint this month by Samuel Brand, an infectious disease modeler at the University of Warwick. Monkeypox’s reproductive number—the average number of new infections triggered by an infected person—began to drop by mid-June, even though campaigns only started in July, Brand notes. Several other European countries saw the same pattern.

That leaves behavior change and immunity from natural infections. A survey conducted by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention among MSM in August found about half had reduced their number of sexual contacts. As awareness of the disease increased, people also became more likely to seek diagnosis and treatment early and to avoid sex while they were infectious. The UK Health Security Agency has presented data suggesting syphilis and other sexually transmitted infections declined as well—which would bolster the case for behavior change—although that signal is “suggestive but not conclusive,” Volz says.

Immunity acquired through infections in the most sexually active men may be the biggest factor, however. Monkeypox has been affecting mostly MSM and their sexual networks because parts of those networks are densely connected, with some people having a large number of sexual contacts. Rising immunity in that group could limit the viru’s ability to spread, says Jacco Wallinga, chief epidemic modeler at the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment.
...
https://www.science.org/content/arti...e-debating-why

and ;

Translation Google

Monkey pox: the epidemic is receding but has not yet disappeared

Since mid-July, the contamination curve has fallen very sharply in Western Europe and North America. However, some countries in Central and Latin America are still experiencing an increase in the number of cases.

Article written by
franceinfo with AFP
France Televisions
Postedon 10/21/2022 08:51
Updateon 21/10/2022 09:45

"We're coming to the end, but we're not there yet." The monkey pox epidemic is in full decline, virologist Jean-Claude Manguara told AFP on Friday, October 21. With more than 70,000 cases in a hundred countries since May, "an epidemic of 'monkeypox' so important in such a short time is unheard of" , recalled this head of the environment and infectious risks unit. at the Pasteur Institute.

If since mid-July, the contamination curve has dropped very significantly in Western Europe and North America, certain countries in Central and Latin America are still experiencing an increase. In addition, at present, monkeypox is "endemic" in about ten African countries. In these areas, the epidemic, which is more lethal, stems mainly from contact with wildlife in rural areas.

"The African source remains present and, in a context where there may be population movements, we may have new exported cases and a new epidemic wave at any time" , warns Steve Ahuka Mundeke, head of the virology department at the Biomedical Research Institute of the Democratic Republic of Congo and member of an IRD-Inserm team. In recent months, "we have again seen that global strategies are only deployed when the countries of the North are affected, which does not at all clear the African health authorities ", he notes.

Behavior change and vaccination

Where the epidemic is declining, experts point to the decisive role of changing behavior within communities at risk, in particular thanks to the role "of associations, perhaps more listened to than the authorities and closer to the field" , suggests Jean- Claude Manuguerra. Surveys show that more than half of men who have sex with men have reduced their number of sexual encounters.

As for vaccination, "it has helped, but the number of vaccines available remains low" , reminds AFP Carlos Maluquer de Motes, professor of virology at the British University of Surrey. The vaccine is still recommended for prevention and post-exposure. Its clinical effectiveness is not yet supported by "hard data" , according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, but it is showing positive preliminary results.

In any case, “significant uncertainties remain about the evolution of the epidemic”, underlines the European agency, which draws four scenarios. Heads: rebound of the epidemic, linked in particular to the return of risky behavior, or reduced circulation of the virus with sporadic outbreaks. Tails: persistent decline in the epidemic, even elimination of the disease in Europe.

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/ma...u_5431210.html

Also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/other-diseases-ah/south-america-monkeypox/949533-argentina-2022-monkeypox/page2#post961463[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/other-diseases-ah/south-america-monkeypox/949533-argentina-2022-monkeypox/page2#post961463 ;

DJ If MPX would develop into more surface or aerosol spread it could become a bigger problem. Also co-infections may change both the virus as the outcome of disease.

Dutch Josh wrote: The chances of "western"monkeypox becoming like smallpox seem very limited... I think the major worry has to be the CoViD(vaccine) link...did CoViD(vaccines) cause this monkeypox outbreak...

I agree Josh. I wish they would release details of the vaccination status of the monkeypox people.

I still don't think monkeypox is a problem. I think it's just another thing to try and keep us all in a state of fear. It's ridiculous that the WHO have declared it a global emergency. Just think how many Covid cases there were before that was declared a pandemic.

Here in NZ we're told we should all be concerned about it because we have 2 cases. It's complete madness. 

Welcome to the site Danielle, 

That's a good question. I'm sure anyone really knows because health authorities have been caught recycling their published photos of Shingles and relabelling them as Monkeypox. But here is an article about how to catch it and what the symptoms are from a UK newspaper last week. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10837201/How-catch-monkeypox-symptoms-need-know-virus.html

Dr. John Campbell is one of the better analysts/reporters

He goes to the edge of what is allowed on Youtube.

I'm not sure If this should be posted here, I just want to add this, This seems perfect spot to post, given the timing and tenor of the conversation. Please feel free to move if it doesn't fit:

From Doctor John Campbell today...Cannot make this stuff up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4E6cD-VWhQY

The problem I see with Monkeypox it it will create fear. 

The media will stir it up. Stories such as "long pox". 

They will show young beautiful girls before and after with scarred faces.

Monkey Pox is super serious. We need to prepare for this one...

You are creating panic where science does not fit your argument. Monkey pox and covid are like an elephant and a camel try to make a elcam. Not happening !!0

Thanks for that info Chuck, I'd also read that it was the West African clade and had a very low fatality. I think it's irresponsible of the media to start spouting figures upwards of a 10% fatality. It's a flash in the pan.

I thought that was an interesting catch, excellent post links!

This is the screen shot of the second link from yesterday make of it what you will: Nice bed-fellows

KiwiMum, I am sorry ! 

Copying from twitter seems asking for problems....But a lot of news is on twitter !

I try to copy into the square-somehow it jumps out...ends up below the square...

...lossed on a digital playground.....

Do you see that white box blocking out part of the posts? Josh that came from your last post where you've copied in part of a coded tweet and I was able to remove the bulk of it but not all.

Well that's not good!  I still keep seeing things that say its nothing to worry about and feel that way in general.  Is that where we are right now or does anyone think its time to worry?

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/preprint-monkeypox-has-epidemic-potential/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/preprint-monkeypox-has-epidemic-potential/ ;

“Monkeypox has epidemic potential”

“We conclude that circulation of smallpox, followed by worldwide smallpox vaccination, have previously protected human populations from monkeypox epidemics. We combined historical data on smallpox and monkeypox with mathematical modelling to estimate the basic reproduction number of monkeypox, and found that monkeypox has epidemic potential. This finding may explain the increasing number of monkeypox outbreak reports, resulting in endemic monkeypox in central African countries. Moreover, with declining immunity to orthopoxvirus species, monkeypox can pose an ever-increasing threat for health security.”

Preprint: Modelling human-to-human transmission of monkeypox

and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/moderna-looks-at-producing-a-monkeypox-vaccine/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/moderna-looks-at-producing-a-monkeypox-vaccine/ ;

Moderna is considering turning its mRNA vaccine platform towards finding a vaccine to defend against Monkeypox, according to a recent tweet by the company.

There are currently two approved vaccines in the U.S. for smallpox which should be effective against Monkeypox. One is made by Acambis (since bought by Sanofi), the other made by Bavarian Nordic.

Moderna’s preclinical trials on a Monkeypox vaccine will add to its work on a host of other products, including vaccines for Covid-19, the flu, the common cold and RSV.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country I would like to know more on gender, (CoViD)vaccination status...Monkeypox in these numbers has to have more links with CoViD then just "reopening-freedom-parties"....

Monkey Pox

Truth versus Fearporn.

Robert W Malone MD, MS May 21

I keep getting asked the same question again and again; is this outbreak of monkey pox a real threat, or is this another case of overstated and weaponized public health messaging? I am going to save my answer to this question for the end of this article and instead focus on what monkey pox is, the nature and characteristics of the associated disease, what we know and don’t know.

The monkeypox virus, which originates in various regions of Africa, is related to SmallPox (Variola), which are both members of the genus Orthopoxvirus. However, it is important to understand that Variola (major or minor) is the species of virus which is responsible for the worst human disease caused by the Orthopox viruses. For example, Cowpox, Horsepox, and Camelpox are also members of this genus, none of which are a major health threat to humans, and one of which (Cowpox) has even been (historically) used as a Smallpox vaccine. My point is that just because Monkeypox is related to Smallpox, this does not in any way mean that it represents a similar public health threat. Anyone who implies otherwise is basically engaged in or otherwise supporting weaponized public health-related propaganda. In other words, spreading public health fearporn.

Monkeypox was first identified in 1958 in colonies of monkeys, and the first human case of the virus was identified in 1970 in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Most likely this was just the first case identified, as people living in Africa have been in contact with monkeys and the other Monkeypox animal hosts for millennia. The “West African” monkeypox clade (clade = variant) circulating outside of Africa at this time causes a milder disease compared to the closely related virus found found in other regions of Africa (Congo clade).   

The symptoms of monkeypox are somewhat similar to, but much milder than smallpox disease. The general clinical presentation of the disease caused by the West African monkey pox clade virus involves Influenza-like symptoms — fever, body aches, chills — together with swollen lymph nodes. A rash on the palm of the hand is often observed. In the latter stage of the disease, which may last for up to a month or more in some cases, may involve small lesions which develop a crust, and which can result in a small depigmented scar. There is no evidence of asymptomatic transmission. In other words, current medical knowledge indicates that it is only spread by person to person contact between an uninfected individual and someone who already has symptoms of the disease. Therefore, disease spread can be readily controlled by classical public health interventions such as contact tracing, temporary quarantine of those who have had physical contact with someone who is infected, and longer term quarantine of those who develop symptoms. Essentially all of the current cases in the west which we are seeing in the news are among men who have sex with men, and appear to be due to close physical contact. Monkeypox is endemic in many parts of Africa, and is a “zoonotic” virus, meaning it can be transmitted from a variety of animals (not just monkeys) to humans. Initial animal to human transmission followed by limited human to human transmission is probably the cause of the sporadic cases typically observed in Africa. Chicken pox, which is highly transmissible, is not part of the genus Orthopoxvirus, despite that name “pox.” Once again for emphasis, Cowpox and Camelpox are also in the genus Orthopoxvirus, and they are not particularly pathogenic when contracted by humans; just because Monkeypox is a “pox” virus in the genus Orthopoxvirus, does not mean it is particularly deadly.

Monkeypox is a double stranded DNA virus, which means that due to the double stranded nature of DNA each of the two strands act as a “check” on the other during replication. As a consequence of this “error checking”, this and other DNA viruses mutate much more slowly than RNA viruses do. Over time, DNA virus genomes are relatively stable. This means that, unlike SARS-CoV-2 (COVID) or influenza, Monkeypox is unlikely to rapidly evolve to escape either naturally acquired or vaccine induced immunity. For the purposes of making a vaccine, this makes it a much easier target that say, a rapidly evolving RNA Coronavirus such as SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19. Furthermore, from an immunological point of view, the various Orthopox viruses often are cross-protective. In other words, if you have been vaccinated with a smallpox vaccine, or previously infected by Cowpox, Camelpox, or Monkeypox, you are highly likely to be quite resistant to disease caused by the Monkeypox virus which is now being (quite rarely) reported in non-African countries.

Current data indicate that Monkeypox is not very infectious in humans - it has a low Ro (perhaps below 1), which is the term used to describe how efficiency an infectious disease can spread from human to human. Again, this is super good news for containment. An Ro of <1 generally means that (even in the absence of social distancing of other containment measures), for every person already infected, on average less than one other person will become infected. For comparison purposes, the Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 have an Ro in the range of 7 to 10. A virus with an Ro of less than one can be easily contained with the standard public health methods discussed above. A virus with an Ro of 7-10 essentially cannot be contained and will rapidly spread throughout the world, as we have seen with the Omicron variants. In the case of a virus with an Ro around 1 or less, traditional infectious disease containment methods such as contact tracing, identification and isolation of infected individuals can be all that is needed to control the virus. Now the fact that Monkeypox is being spread from human to human (rather than only arising from contact between a person and an infected animal) is not such good news, but since this transmission appears to be from very close contact, this means that it can be easily contained without resorting to a general population vaccination campaign. In this type of setting, if there is a significant outbreak, vaccination is often restricted to just the health care and/or first responder personnel most likely to be in contact with an infected person. Using a vaccine to help that containment via either “ring” vaccination or wide-spread vaccination strategies is generally unnecessary, and may even be counterproductive, depending on the safety of the vaccine - keeping in mind that no drug or vaccine is perfectly safe.

Let me take a moment to tell a personal story to illustrate this point. After the 9-11 events including the anthrax letters, I took a job involving clinical development of a wide range of biodefense vaccines under a US Department of Defense (DoD) contract (issued to Dynport Vaccine Company). One of the vaccine indications we worked on was for prevention of Smallpox. The Vice President of the United States at the time, Mr. Dick Cheney, was advocating for widespread vaccination against smallpox because it was thought that there was something like a 1% chance of a bioterror attack involving reintroduction of smallpox into the United States. The existing live attenuated smallpox vaccine began to be deployed throughout the United States to healthcare workers and first responders. Then multiple reports of vaccine-caused damage began to circulate. I was tasked with looking into historic DoD smallpox vaccine campaign records concerning these types of “adverse events”. Adverse events after administration of this live attenuated vaccine were well known, and generally fell into two categories. In some cases, a small subset of young warfighters and recruits had some previously undetected immunologic defect which resulted in them developing an ongoing infection by the live attenuated vaccine virus that was being used at the time. The other group developed more subtle symptoms including what now appears to have been vaccination-associated myo- and pericarditis - typically ascribed to an autoimmune process. These problems were known risks back when smallpox vaccination was common (and smallpox had not been eradicated) and therefore no surprise when the same vaccine was redeployed in the present. But smallpox had been eradicated, and Mr. Cheney’s worst case scenario never happened. Those who were vaccinated and damaged to protect against a non-existent threat provide a great example illustrating a completely upside down risk benefit ratio. All risk, no benefit. And, appropriately, the smallpox vaccination campaign was halted.

Key takeaway: this is not influenza or COVID - this virus mutates slowly, it is not highly infectious, naturally acquired immunity is potent and long lasting, and Orthopox vaccines are usually cross protective. The risk of immunologic escape is very, very low. And the spread of this virus can be readily stopped by simple, inexpensive classical public health measures. If it were otherwise, we would already have experienced a pandemic of Monkeypox decades ago.

Monkeypox disease severity can vary with different clades (found in different regions in Africa, which also suggest the virus has been around for a very long time). Luckily, this particular clade is less severe and appears to be endemic in Africa. Unfortunately, it has rarely been studied and so relatively little is known about the virus and associated human disease, largely because the infectious threat to the general population is so low. STAT news’ journalist Helen Branswell has recently interviewed CDC experts, and published an excellent summary of the clinical presentation:

“With one to three days of the onset of fever, a distinctive rash appears, often starting on the face. Many conditions can cause rashes but the monkeypox rash has some unusual features, notably the fact that vesicles can form on the palms of the hands. In countries where it is endemic, the virus is believed to mainly spread to people from infected animals when people kill or prepare bushmeat for consumption.

Once the virus jumps to people, human-to-human transmission can occur via respiratory droplets — virus-laced saliva that can infect the mucosal membranes of the eyes, nose, and throat — or by contact with monkeypox lesions or bodily fluids, with the virus entering through small cuts in the skin. It can also be transmitted by contact with clothing or linens contaminated with material from monkeypox lesions. (STAT News).

There was a prior outbreak of Monkeypox in the United States during 2003. That particular outbreak, the first reported outside of Africa, was traced back to the importation of small mammals from Ghana. As shown by this outbreak, multiple animals can contract the disease - during that outbreak, giant pouched rats and squirrels tested positive for the virus and eventually spread it to prairie dogs being sold as pets in multiple Midwestern states (per the CDC). Forty-seven people caught the disease from the prairie dogs. This is important and relevant history, because the current outbreak appears to be occurring from human to human transmission, with no single individual traced as as case zero. There have been a few other outbreaks outside of Africa over the years from travelers coming from Nigeria. It is currently thought that the Monkeypox virus is much more common in Nigeria than has previously been reported.

There is a vaccine that was licensed in the U.S. in 2019 for people 18 years of age and older to protect against smallpox and monkeypox; Bavarian Nordic’s Jynneos. A second vaccine, ACAM2000 made by Emergent Product Development, protects against smallpox and is also thought to offer some protection against monkeypox. Both vaccines are licensed only for people considered at high risk of contracting the disease because they are not entirely safe.  In the 2003 Monkeypox outbreak in the U.S., smallpox vaccine was deployed to persons considered at high risk.

The U.S. already holds supplies of the vaccines in the Strategic National Stockpile, a hedge against public health emergencies. “To combat a smallpox emergency, the SNS holds enough smallpox vaccine to vaccinate the entire U.S. population. In addition, the SNS has antiviral drugs that can be deployed to treat smallpox infections, if needed,” a spokesperson for the Department of Health and Human Services said via email. In my opinion, the 119 Million dollar smallpox vaccine purchase which was just authorized by the US HHS and Biden administration represents an unnecessary and unwarranted expense, unless there are data showing that the current strain is significantly different from the historic predecessor strains within this clade.

The WHO’s Van Kerkhove noted that some of these products have been licensed using what is known as the animal rule, where animal efficacy data are used as a surrogate because the lack of circulating smallpox means the vaccines or drugs can’t be tested for efficacy in people. As a result, any such product could only be used in the context of a clinical trial, she said.

“There are options. We just have to make sure that they’re used appropriately. One of the things related to vaccines is we want to make sure if the vaccines are needed and used, they’re used among populations that need them the most. There’s not ample supply of anything right now,” she said.

Still, she expressed confidence the outbreak can be controlled.

“What we need to do right now is focus on stopping the spread. And we can do that. We can do that with the appropriate messaging, with the appropriate testing … with supportive isolation and clinical care as necessary, with protecting health workers,” Van Kerkhove said. (STAT News).

The Bill Gates funded organization GAVI has provided their assessment of the medical threat posed by Monkeypox, which can be found here. Many readers of this substack will not be surprised by my assessment that this GAVI threat assessment is highly biased towards overstatement. For example, the article seeks to create parallels between Monkeypox and Ebola:

Similar to viruses like Ebola, transmission only happens in close proximity by contact with lesions, body fluids, respiratory droplets or contaminated materials such as bedding or clothes.

The article also states the following pants-on-fire disinformation;

Although symptoms often ease within a month, one in ten cases can be fatal. Children are particularly susceptible.

Factcheck determination by qualified subject matter expert -

This assertion represents a very biased interpretation of a data report from the World Health Organization:

In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported 4,594 suspected cases of monkeypox, including 171 deaths (case fatality ratio 3.7%). They are described as suspected because confirmation requires PCR testing, which is not easily available in endemic areas.

Those readers who have become sensitized to this type of information manipulation and weaponization will immediately notice two key things about this comment. First, the reported mortality of 3.7% (NOT 10%) of cases is from suspected, not confirmed cases. Secondly, this type of sampling is highly biased towards more severe disease- countries rarely will detect and do not report cases of mild disease to the WHO.

So, is the biothreat real? Is is imminent? Does it justify the global media hype? As I was waiting in an airport lounge to travel from USA to the UK two days ago, I saw a newsreel from CNN which was breathlessly reporting on this “threat” while displaying historic images of patients suffering from Smallpox disease. This provides a classical example of public health fearporn, in my opinion, and CNN should be reprimanded for broadcasting irresponsible propaganda - misinformation and disinformation- under the guise of journalism.

In my opinion, based on currently available information, Monkeypox is a virus and disease which is endemic in Africa, emerges sporadically after transmission into humans from animal hosts, and is typically spread by close human contact. It is readily controlled by classical public health measures. It does not have a high mortality rate. Unless there has been some genetic alteration, either through evolution or intentional genetic manipulation, it is not a significant biothreat, and has never been considered a high threat pathogen in the past.

So stop the fear mongering, misinformation and disinformation.

https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/monkey-pox?sd=nfs&s=r

DJ, 

Sometimes copying from twitter ends up in chaos...(may be the case in scenario's...I can not get access to it...)

[url]https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1527708367682158593/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1527708367682158593/photo/1 showing people testing for CoViD may test positive for other virusses...so monkeypox for that matter can be "just" another "extra" virus...

Again !!! Reporting "spread is in gay men" is very WRONG !!!!! I would like to know the CoViD-history of the monkeypox cases ! Do thet test positive for CoViD as well, did they get vaccinated ? Did they all get the same sort of vaccine ?  Test positive for a same sort of CoViD ???

We are still in the middle of a CoViD pandemic ! What if there is a new CoViD strain resulting in positive tests for monkeypox - because that (sub)variant-virus is "co-spreading" with a new CoViD subvariant ?  Again BA.4/5 -African "roots" are spreading around the globe...One should not ignore that !

The monkeypox story -just like the hepatitis in children- has to be related to the CoViD-pandemic !!! It is part of a bigger story-not an isolated "new story"!!!!

(Again I am not an expert-trying to make sense...)

link [url]https://actionnetwork.org/petitions/9d9715d62dc68b656691725ba052697b6ba30646[/url] or https://actionnetwork.org/petitions/9d9715d62dc68b656691725ba052697b6ba30646 

and 

AIRBORNE PRECAUTION—New @CDCgov update admits to “theoretical risk of airborne transmission” of #monkeypox virus, and thus “airborne precaution should be applied whenever possible”. Don’t take chances. Let’s learn from recent mistakes. Take precaution. https://cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/clinicians/infection-control-hospital.html

-Is monkeypox airborne ? [url]https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/clinicians/infection-control-hospital.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/clinicians/infection-control-hospital.html ;

There are few scientific studies pertaining to the transmission of monkeypox virus and most were conducted in Africa. Person-to-person transmission of monkeypox virus is believed to occur by the same mechanisms exploited by variola virus during the smallpox era, namely via respiratory droplets or by direct contact with lesion material.

Precautions to Prevent Monkeypox Transmission

A combination of standard, contact, and droplet precautions Cdc-pdf[PDF – 226 pages] should be applied in all healthcare settings when a patient presents with fever and vesicular/pustular rash.

In addition, because of the theoretical risk of airborne transmission of monkeypox virus, airborne precautions should be applied whenever possible.If a patient presenting for care at a hospital or other health care facility is suspected of having monkeypox, infection control personnel should be notified immediately.

DJ respiratory droplets could be seen as "airborne"...It would be wise to mask up against CoViD...also does decrease risks for monkeypox-like-disease. 

The Central- and West African forms of monkeypox do not spread via sex. So this new variant I see as "monkeypox like disease"...sequencing indicates lots of similarities with the known West African variant of monkeypox...still so far it did not spread this way...And agian-CoViD is far from over ! Both Delta and Omicron (sub) variants are widespread. 

Does a weaker immunity system cause this monkeypox-like-disease outbreak ???? What is the CoViD-link ???

Eric Feigl-Ding

@DrEricDing

·

10h

3) Some criticized when I said that aerosol transmission (airborne) was likely. I cited a study that demonstrated it was definitely possible and for the virus to be viable in the air for many many hours. Some said I was fear -mongering. Well, today, CDC admits it’s possible!

DJ, Monkeypox, CoViD far from over, climate collapse, hyperinflation all are bad news...describing it as "fear mongering" is simply ignoring warnings...

(I can not get to scenario's...yet...hope the "error" can be fixed). 

DJ-A virus is just a virus !!! It is not "tropical" or "gay"...it has no color of skin...A virus-so far-most detected in Africa may see a chance to spread in other regions. If it spread via sneezing you would expect a lot of cases in a wide variaty of the population. So far that pattern is not showing up...even missed/misdiagnosed cases do not (yet) indicate "explosive growthrates".  So airborne/surface spread most likely will be (very) limited. 

However the global number of cases of this form of monkeypox does indicate the virus did change. (So it is NOT !!!! the Nigeria 2018 variant !!! That one was very limited). 

Some info from [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/949085-discussion-thoughts-on-a-global-outbreak-of-monkeypox?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/949085-discussion-thoughts-on-a-global-outbreak-of-monkeypox?view=stream ; First monkeypox genome from latest outbreak shows links to 2018 strain

20 May 2022
Michael LePage

The first draft genome of the virus responsible for the rapidly growing monkeypox outbreak has been released online by a team in Portugal. The DNA sequence shows it is of the mild West African type and most closely related to the monkeypox viruses detected in the UK, Singapore and Israel in 2018 and 2019.

What isn’t yet clear is whether this virus has any changes that make it more transmissible in humans, which would explain why the current outbreak is so widespread and by far the largest seen outside Central and West Africa, where the virus spreads in monkeys. This could take some time to establish, given that monkeypox has a large and complex genome.

At the time of writing, there were 127 confirmed and suspected cases of monkeypox in 10 countries, including the US, UK and Australia, and researchers suspect the true numbers are even higher.

João Paulo Gomes and colleagues at the National Institute of Health in Portugal sequenced a sample taken from a male patient on 4 May. Teams in other countries are also sequencing viral samples from the outbreak, but Gomes’s team is the first to make a sequence public.

Gustavo Palacios at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, says the draft sequence from Portugal has too many gaps to draw firm conclusions, but that he has seen a more complete sequence from a team in Belgium. “As far as I can see, it seems to be identical to the one in the UK in 2018,” says Palacios. “That is a little bit odd.”

In 2018, there were three cases in the UK after someone returning from Nigeria infected two other members of their household.

As more samples are sequenced, it should become clear whether, as suspected, a single variant of monkeypox is responsible for all the cases in the latest outbreak.

https://www.newscientist.com/article...o-2018-strain/

DJ; It would be more then welcome to see/look (for) info from Nigeria/(West)Africa to find out if this monkeypox-virus is spreading there. As far as I did notice-with very limited info-and again I just try to catch a glimpse-not an expert at all !- it is so far NOT spreading in West Africa !!!! 

[url]https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/antwerp-monkeypox-belgian-monkeypox-outbreak-linked-to-fetish-festival-2995443[/url] or https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/antwerp-monkeypox-belgian-monkeypox-outbreak-linked-to-fetish-festival-2995443 ; 

Brussels: 

Belgium's three confirmed cases of monkeypox have been linked to a large-scale fetish festival in the port city of Antwerp, organisers said Friday.

Several European countries have reported cases in recent days, and the World Health Organisation is investigating whether some outbreaks spread within the gay community.

In Belgium, the Darklands Festival warned patrons who attended four days of parties starting on May 5 that Belgian authorities had linked three cases to the event.

DJ Did an "index/early" case, "patient zero" import the -very rare in Nigeria as well-Monkeypox virus to Europe and is (most of) the spread early stages linked to sex-parties ? Is that also a possible link for earlier (UK ???) cases ? 

Then again-it is NOT !!!!!! a "West African virus" !

The virus in the DRC is a different strain of the virus and is unrelated to the cases in North America and Europe. Most of the cases in the DRC are also the result of exposure to infected animals or animal products, and represent minimal if any H2H spread.

The DRC-variant may be more agressive (however killing 10% is related to detected cases...CFR most likely much lower ! DJ-If not treated by a doctor/hospital people may recover. However if there is medical help available seek medical help !!! You do not want to spread it, you do not want to die from it, or end up with complications/long term problems !!!

Mary Wilson replied

Yesterday, 10:10 PM

So monkeypox did show up in isolated cases in western countries. DJ In NL detected monkeypox cases do NOT need to be reported !!!  Another question may be did get monkeypox imported from other African countries ? Belgium has a lot of travel with central Africa ??? How much of the "monkeypox in the west story" is known ???

alert replied

Yesterday, 07:28 PM

HIV-link...

Something the media is missing in assuming there are large numbers of missed milder cases worldwide...of the 146 or so cases reported so far, there are NO cases that are both confirmed monkeypox and confirmed female. There are several cases whose gender is not specified, and there is one suspect female case in Spain, but no confirmed female cases.

If you assumed that these cases simply represent the most severe or most unusual cases in a much larger outbreak, you'd suspect equal ratios of males and females. That's totally not what's going on.

The other thing the media is missing is that unless there has been global distribution of infected animals or products, this outbreak will either go pandemic or burn out. This cannot become an endemic situation because there's no reservoir for the virus. The only reason this virus is endemic in Nigeria and the DRC is its presence in animals.

DJ-So again Africa is a different story ! (So far !)

DJ, With the monkeypox outbreak it is important to keep a "wide view". If testing for monkeypox is "very hard" and has a stigma of "gay-parties" we will miss a lot of cases-resulting in much more spread !!! Again-indications may ask for GP/hospitals to "check for symptoms" in ALL patient-groups. Even if most of the spread may be sex-related bisexual men may have infected women...they could both have spread the virus to other age groups. The spread has been going on for SEVERAL WEEKS !!! With a possible incubation of maybe up to three weeks !!! There will be lots more cases...also in women, children, old age....

Other countries will follow...

Correction— the WHO had not yet convened an emergency meeting on #monkeypox yet — it was inaccurate reporting by the 

@Telegraph

. But this thread  below on monkeypox is accurate. And the 

@WHO

 does need to declare a PHEIC soon.

PHEIC=[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern DJ-A next step could be the WHO calling it a pandemic. But that would need evidence of SPREAD in several WHO regions, not "just" cases...(DJ And at least part of the spread may be linked to countries where there is room for gay-men. So "the west"....Countries with anti-homosexuality laws may see spread not beig picked up...Again-there is NO gay-virus !!! By now we ALL may be at a limited risk !)

DJ...the longer the incubation period-people having been infected but not yet ill-the more spread. I do not even want to think of a-symptomatic spread...People spreading monkeypox without symptoms themselves over a longer time. 

End of part 2...Again I am NOT an expert-just trying to follow the story !

Here's an all-you-need-to-know article by the Daily Mail on Monkeypox and how it spreads etc.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10837201/How-catch-monkeypox-symptoms-need-know-virus.html

Drilling hard on this one. Nothing yet. Only stuff from the CDC and WHO. For some reason they are into this like a mad woman's breakfast. Weird.  When Covid came out they were late to the party, or more accurately sat on the fence.  They have heaps of data. Seems monkeypox is common, however its usually isolated. 

What we know: 

The transmission is human to human. Its via respiratory tract, or the mucous membranes among other things. They aren't saying airborne yet, but...

Incubation period is roughly 7-14 days. I'm also reading up to 20 days. If true, it's long and therefore dangerous. 

I've read about a high CFR 3-6%, but I doubt the figures. IFR is more important. Still its high.  

And going from the numbers and growth the reproduction rate looks high too. This is what we need to start tracking. Numbers day to day.

Mighty cute in them overalls Chim Chim

Okay. Does anyone have the abridged version of the Monkey Pox story?

Essentially the basic information needed:

CFR and or IFR

R0

Gestation

Creditable sources too. (not WHO or CDC)

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_in_Europe_and_North_America[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_in_Europe_and_North_America now has 10 countries with 37 confirmed and 50 suspected cases-outside Africa....

Again [url]http://outbreaknewstoday.com/drc-reports-700-monkeypox-cases-in-2022-to-date-30924/[/url] or http://outbreaknewstoday.com/drc-reports-700-monkeypox-cases-in-2022-to-date-30924/ ; The World Health Organization (WHO) reported a total of 75 cases and 2 deaths due to monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) the last week of February. 

During the first two months of 2022, 704 cases have been reported with 37 deaths (CFR 5.3%) in the DRC.

Since January 2020, DRC has seen more than 10,000 cases and 342 deaths due to monkeypox.

Other African countries most likely must have (lots of) cases. 

Some of the explanations do not make much sense; restart of airtravel...Monkeypox is NOT new...the virus may have mutated that much it is able to spread more. "Most" cases in homosexual community...Maybe "more then expected so far in the gaycommunity" would be better...What we did know about monkeypox is most related to the "old" monkeypox. This outbreak looks like dealing with a new form....

[url]https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/528825-monkeypox-nigeria-records-558-cases-eight-deaths-in-five-years.html[/url] or https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/528825-monkeypox-nigeria-records-558-cases-eight-deaths-in-five-years.html ; (may 10 article) ;The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) in its latest report said the country recorded 558 cases and eight deaths across 32 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) between 2017 and 2022.

-

It said also in February six new suspected cases were recorded in three states with Bayelsa recording three; Imo, two; and Lagos, one.

DJ, The Nigeria story does not indicate an increase of cases-rare in Nigeria-lately. 

One of the questions I have is the relation with CoViD. Did many of the cases test positive for CoViD ? Did CoViD infection open the door-made people more vulnerable-for monkeypox ? 

CoViD can do more harm in men-because they have more ACE-2 receptors...Can it-in part-explain why (most) western cases (so far) are also in men ? Does Africa see more monkeypox cases in men ? (And why ?) Animal hosts ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/949085-thoughts-on-a-global-outbreak-of-monkeypox?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/949085-thoughts-on-a-global-outbreak-of-monkeypox?view=stream ;

Monkeypox is Not a Gay Disease

May 19, 2022

PLOS Global Public Health

In recent weeks multiple cases of confirmed and suspected monkeypox infections have been reported in three European countries. The initial cluster of cases which first appeared in the United Kingdom so far includes four men who identify as gay or bisexual or other men who have sex with men (MSM). The narrative emerging as this outbreak evolves to involve other European countries, Canada and the United States is sadly reminiscent of initial reporting on pneumocystis pneumonia clusters in gay men with AIDS forty years ago. Monkeypox is not a gay disease and neither are any other infectious diseases. It is unfortunate that this still needs to be said, highlighting how little we have learned from previous outbreaks.

DJ How many cases will be missed/reported late because of "gay-disease madness" ? 

This is a twitter thread of a woman in England reporting an unexplained rash illness and states that she has been tested for monkeypox:

Sarah Eaglesfield on Twitter: "Didn't really want to make this common knowledge, but it's suspected I've had monkeypox for the last 4 weeks. Swabbed today. At scabbing stage now. Won't share the photos, as instant vomit factor. On a solid 8g of anti-biotics + Aciclovir anti-viral. No idea how I got it." / Twitter

She has also suggested that she was originally diagnosed as shingles, which has not been excluded.

How many cases are already missed ?????

alert commented on alert's reply

May 18, 2022, 09:01 PM

DJ-Again Monkeypox is NOT new !  Monkeypox may be spread from handling bushmeat, an animal bite or scratch, body fluids, contaminated objects, or close contact with an infected person. (wiki)...maybe hosts did become more vulnerable ???? (Due to CoViD)

Maybe [url]https://africacdc.org/[/url] or https://africacdc.org/ can provide more info on (recent) African monkeypox cases. Statistics on gender, age, location may help to find out if the virus did change or the host-most likely however both...