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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

pandemic breakfast

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2022 at 11:37pm

Part 2, 

DJ-since I see some parallels with WAR-(lack of) strategy...

Ukraine and Russia with Türkiye/UN help agreed on grain export from Ukraine...within hours Ukraine claiming Russia is shelling Odessa-port...Russia denies it...DJ-My impression is Ukraine only signs agreements to use it for propaganda...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/staged-incidents-as-the-western-approach-of-doing-politics[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/staged-incidents-as-the-western-approach-of-doing-politics did put a writing from Lavrov Russian Foreign Minister...

DJ-I do NOT agree with a lots of views from hal turner...I also do NOT agree with all of Lavrov his story. Putin and his government political is "right of the middle" maybe closer to US republicans, UK conservatives however with lots of major differences...Russia simply is NOT the US, UK or EU...

Most non-western countries are moving by now towards the Russian claim the Ukraine "intervention" was meant to avoid an even larger war with NATO. NATO going for a neo-colonial global power grab...with the US setting "international rules" exploiting the rest of the world in the interests of their 0,1%...

DJ-I share the vision of a "global NATO" being a very unwelcome neo-colonial powerblock...also anti-democratic...NOT in the interests of 99,9% of the global population...

But my idea of it all is not relevant...In Europe countries are trying to find ways out of this Ukraine war...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpyX09eWpDA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cpyX09eWpDA Military Summary is giving me more and more the impression that in Ukraine itself division is growing...

Again-most Ukrainians voted for zelensky to get OUT of the conflict....I think a lot of Ukrainians start realizing they are used by "the west" (US/UK most...) for a "western agenda"...

Russia now forming its own pro-Russian Ukraine Army...It may be offering "a way out" for lots of Ukrainians...zelensky has lost his popularity...Most likely zelensky is now only in his position because of "western=US"support...a puppet...

biden may push for more weapons, further escalation....Both in the US and UK support for another endless war-with very high economic and political costs-is decreasing. US democrats, UK conservatives may lose a next election over this war...

Again ! The west was in a much stronger position only six months ago....pushing for further NATO expansion eastwards may have destroyed NATO....Türkiye by now may have better relations with Russia and Iran then with the US...Erdogan still may block Sweden, Finland joining NATO in Turkish parliament...Other NATO members also need parliament to agree with further NATO expansinism...

Coming winter "most of the west" may face an energy crisis....Russia is selling its grain to "friendly countries" (sometimes for Rubles, trade with India and Türkiye may be in their currencies...).

US policies towards Taiwan are even further pushing China into military cooperation with Russia...North Korea may get a role in Ukraine reconstruction...Russia-Iran-India trade is booming ! Gazprom may build pipelines (via international waters-so south of Pakistan !) allowing Iran to export oil and gas to India...payment NOT in US$ !

The strategy;

US, biden, did provoke this Ukraine-NATO expansion war....I would not be surprised if CoViD was a very welcome excuse for K.Harris to replace biden....

In the UK liz truss [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25zSQF1khDM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25zSQF1khDM WION-India short bio on her...is expected to replace bojo...

DJ-Both harris and truss may make matters even worse...elections however may limit the damage they can do. 

For the "United" Kingdom I expect reunification of Ireland, Scotland going for independence are real possibilities...The "United" States may not be "breaking up in this way". But for the US the suppreme court decission on abortion-rules NOT being a federal US issue -possibly also for lots of other matters- may result in weakening on the federal "United" part. 

The [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_government_of_the_United_States[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_government_of_the_United_States may be under pressure...

Of course there is also NATO...US largest, Türkiye second largest army...France-still in many ways a global player with French its own interests-may be going against US/UK interests also a major NATO player...Germany rearming...at least in theory...in practice it is running out of weapons (being send to Ukraine), energy, finance...

Brings me to the EU-that did become the European NATO political arm-never meant to move that way...

Major European companies want a much more neutral EU to be able to do trade around the globe...This (insane) sanctions war is NOT backed by those European companies...

Russia is NOT either isolated or facing economic destruction....The western very wrong idea was sanctions and support (for Ukraine) would "end Putin" (biden c.s. still have a pseudo religion of Putin making trump US president...also the idea of Putin causing Brexit seem to be still supported by some "leaders/fools"...). It may end the west...

Pandemic strategy;

Going for herd/group immunity via massive vaccinations while also allowing CoViD to spread was a total disaster...some "leaders" still not willing to realize the seize of disaster it did become...

We now not only face CoViD but also monkeypox....very likely (but kept out of main stream media...embedded/state run...) other diseases will follow...

Only very drastic, draconian measures may offer some perspectives...

DJ-China has a major financial crisis-in part pandemic linked...CoViD is a global problem, monkeypox so far mainly a European/North American one...Of course climate collapse still there as well...

The only way out is a shift in priorities, global cooperation, "financial reorganization = take away the money from the rich 0,1%"...

There are still ways to limit global collapse but we have to act now if there is any use for those ways...

-"Ice blankets" may limit glacier melt...

-The IPCC had CO2 taking out of the atmosphere in its long term strategy...we have to find ways not only limiting CO2 increases but also to reduce CO2 (and others like methane). 

-nasal vaccines in combination with STOP THE SPREAD long term social strategies may limit disease (working/study from home as a rule, more robots for some jobs, other ways of social contacts...we still are human...)

-Maybe total agreement may be asking to much...but at least "do the best one can" realizing the dangers would be a major shift...

DJ The plague in the 14th century, "global military situation in 1942"...history has enough examples of hopeless looking times...we did get through those times...The 1918/19 Spanish Flu maybe killing up to 2 to 5% of the global population is not that far away...Infectious diseases as massive killers were even a "worse normal" before 1900...

Most of history average life expectency was 30-40 years....so people getting over 60 to 80 in a historical perspective is "new"...(Of course very high number of children not getting even 10 y/o did influence life expectency statistics...). 

Humanity may face some "hard years" but with some luck and wisdom we may still see "some humans" around in 2100 ? 

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2022 at 12:40am

part 3,

DJ "a "war has to have winners"...The "war on drugs, war on terror" wre disasters...like a "war on pandemics" will be...A more realistic idea would be trying to limit drugs, terror, disease...YES-we have "to live with the virus" however that does not mean no restrictions...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/polio/950017-pakistan-2022-polio[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/polio/950017-pakistan-2022-polio ;

Source: https://www.dawn.com/news/1701072/13...on-vaccination

13th polio case from KP puts question mark on vaccination
Ikram Junaidi Published July 23, 2022 - Updated about 6 hours ago

ISLAMABAD: As Pakistan strives to become polio-free, the region of southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa threatens to upend the progress, with this year’s 13th case reported on Friday.

An 18-month-old child was paralysed by wild poliovirus (WPV) in Lakki Marwat, the National Institute of Health confirmed.

The 12 other cases were also reported from southern KP, North Waziristan. With Pakistan nearly achieving the status of a polio-free country, health authorities have expressed concern over the high number of cases from the tribal districts.

“We have successfully managed to prevent the virus from spreading elsewhere despite the frequent movement of people between KP and other parts of the country. If we can contain and eliminate the virus from this area, we can win the fight against polio,” federal Health Secretary Dr Fakhre Alam Irfan told Dawn...

+++++++++++++++++++

Source: https://www.urdupoint.com/en/pakista...t-1539735.html

Child Paralyzed By Wild Polio In Lakki Marwat
Umer Jamshaid Published July 22, 2022 | 10:46 PM

ISLAMABAD, (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 22nd Jul, 2022 ) :Pakistan Polio Laboratory in Islamabad on Friday confirmed that an 18-month child was paralyzed by wild polio in Lakki Marwat.

The child had onset of paralysis on 20 June and was suffering from disabilities in both lower limbs. This is the thirteenth case in Pakistan this year. All children paralyzed in Pakistan this year belong to southern Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP), where 12 cases are from North Waziristan alone...

DJ We have hopes to "end"polio like we managed to "end" small pox....Maybe winning a "battle" but the "for ever war" for health goes on...I do not want to live in a "for ever war" so I rather would use other words...

Monkeypox;

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/who-declares-monkeypox-a-pheic-as-tedros-overrides-advisors/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/who-declares-monkeypox-a-pheic-as-tedros-overrides-advisors/  and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/preprint-paediatric-monkeypox-patient-with-unknown-source-of-infection/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/preprint-paediatric-monkeypox-patient-with-unknown-source-of-infection/ 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Health_Emergency_of_International_Concern ;

Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) is a formal declaration by the World Health Organization (WHO) of "an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response", formulated when a situation arises that is "serious, sudden, unusual, or unexpected", which "carries implications for public health beyond the affected state's national border" and "may require immediate international action".[1] Under the 2005 International Health Regulations (IHR), states have a legal duty to respond promptly to a PHEIC.[2][3] The declaration is publicized by an IHR Emergency Committee (EC) of international experts,[4] which was developed following the 2002–2004 SARS outbreak.[5]

Since 2009, there have been seven PHEIC declarations:[6][7] the 2009 H1N1 (or swine flu) pandemic, the 2014 polio declaration, the 2013–2016 outbreak of Ebola in Western Africa, the 2015–16 Zika virus epidemic,[8] the 2018–20 Kivu Ebola epidemic,[9] the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic,[10][11] and the ongoing 2022 monkeypox outbreak.[12] The recommendations are temporary and require reviews every three months.[1]

Automatically, SARSsmallpoxwild type poliomyelitis, and any new subtype of human influenza are considered as PHEICs and thus do not require an IHR decision to declare them as such.[13] A PHEIC is not confined to infectious diseases, and may cover an emergency caused by exposure to a chemical agent or radioactive material.[14] It can be seen as an "alarm system", a "call to action", and "last resort" measure

DJ MERS was not named a PHEIC in 2013...it is a political decission...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/who-stupidly-declares-monkeypox-a-global-health-emergency-while-the-world-health-network-headed-by-charlatans-will-soon-lobby-for-mandatory-arse-mask[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/who-stupidly-declares-monkeypox-a-global-health-emergency-while-the-world-health-network-headed-by-charlatans-will-soon-lobby-for-mandatory-arse-mask sticking to 97% of cases in gay men...unprotected sex main spread...

Others ask why there "were no rules" to stop the spread via gay-sex...

DJ-Like polio monkeypox does a lot of it spread with no or only mild symptoms...There are some reports of children getting monkeypox via surface spread. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory is expected to develop towards a million cases in november in some models...The 17,000+ known cases are only the tip of the iceberg;

-incubation time may be three weeks.

-surface/aerosol spread still unclear...but potential a major factor..

-most cases will not have much symptoms but still spread it....

DJ The real number of monkeypox cases around the globe may be already over 100,000+ ....Like HIV-AIDS it may have started in gay men...it does not stay in that group...

[url]https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/monkeypox-outbreak-technical-briefings/investigation-into-monkeypox-outbreak-in-england-technical-briefing-4[/url] or https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/monkeypox-outbreak-technical-briefings/investigation-into-monkeypox-outbreak-in-england-technical-briefing-4 ;

Potential levels of the outbreak in England

The outbreak can be considered to fall into 1 of 4 potential levels of transmission:

Level 1

Incursions from rest of the world – small numbers of imported cases with limited onward transmission.

Level 2

Transmission within a defined sub-population.

Level 3

Transmission within multiple sub-populations or larger sub-population.

Level 4

Wider significant community transmission – with potential for endemic and local epi-zoonotic disease.

These may be refined with better understanding of modes of transmission.

At present, England is judged to be in Level 2 and is being closely monitored for any evidence of Level 3.

-

UK transmission

Outbreak level

Level 2 is defined as transmission within a defined sub-population, currently GBMSM connected by sexual networks. Enhanced surveillance data does not suggest a change in case mix, although it is available on only 28% (576 out of 2,070) of cases and may not be representative of the whole cohort. There are 13 female cases in England (out of 2,014 with known gender). There is no robust evidence of sustained transmission outside some sexual networks of GBMSM, although the increase in female cases requires close surveillance.

Assessment (confidence): level 2 (moderate).

Route of transmission

Whilst the primary reported route is through close or sexual contact, monkeypox virus has been detected in air and environmental samples in the hospital room of infected patients. There are no confirmed instances of airborne transmission. Limited household transmission has been described in the UK.

Assessment (confidence): transmitting primarily through close or sexual contact (moderate).

DJ, UK has good surveilance...but even there some groups may not seek medical care (male prostitutes, drug addicts).  In some other countries the surveilance is even worse...Refugees are a vulnerable group-and the world may have a record number of 100 million+ of refugees...(so stop wars ! not refugees !)

The UK info has NO info on CoViD(vaccination) background...by now there must be lots of info on CoViD links with monkeypox...My impression is most of the monkeypox cases may NOT have had a CoViD vaccination. (The US 20 y/o male polio case most likely did not even get any vaccination...may have orthodox Jewish background...). 

Maybe linking CoViD (vaccination) history with monkeypox cases is "very complex"...Some may have had CoViD in 2020...once...others may have had CoViD this year...still in recovery from it. Also on vaccines-no doubt at least some monkeypox cases may have had one or more CoViD vaccinations...but also type of vaccine and timing may be very diverse...

Still-my impression only-monkeypox would not behave in this "bizarre" way without the CoViD background...there has to be a (no doubt complex) link...

Why does it matter ?

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-2-75/india-ba-2-75-centaurus-outcompetes-ba-5-in-india/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-2-75/india-ba-2-75-centaurus-outcompetes-ba-5-in-india/ BA.2.75 may be spreading in some states of India possibly because they did not see some earlier CoViD variants...The BA.2.75 "family" for now seems to be very limited in spread outside those states in India...

#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 18.63% BA.5.2.1 11.37% BA.2.12.1 11.28% unassigned 9.42% BA.5.5 8.60% BA.5.1 6.53% BA.4.1 6.50% BA.5.2 4.68% BA.5.6 4.28% BA.5 4.09% BA.4   Tracker: http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7 #OmicronUpdates 07/23/22 

DJ The US may be facing over a million CoViD cases per day...most may never see testing, reporting or sequencing...

[url]https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard[/url] or https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard 

the US has 0,06% of BA.2.75 cases...it has been under 0,1% for over a week...BA.2.76 at 0,09%...Given the way the BA.2.75 "likes" behave in India there may be local increases/explosions...

Maybe BA.5.1 "Peru-variant" [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/780[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/780 could become larger...

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/856[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/856 BA.2.75 itself also mutating...

There are now 32 BA.2.75 (by Nextclade) on GISAID that have S:574V

31 of them cluster together. That's around 5% of all BA.2.75.

International spread has reached:

  • Canada
  • Germany
  • Denmark
  • Japan

Distribution in India (yellow is this lineage, green is rest)

DJ My non-expert impression is "lots of variants spreading in lots of places"....On top of that I think people could be infected by more then one CoViD sub-variant...Lots of "chronic/long" CoViD cases may have virusses hiding in parts of their body...

We are NOT on a government level in most countries stopping the spread so for now CoViD will only get worse...








Just a recap. No point in writing much else. Nothing's going to change. Positivity up, wastewater concentration up, new hospital admissions up, currently hospitalized up. All measures far above last July. Let's see where this summer BA.5 wave ends up.

DJ goes for most countries....

I'm curious to see if BA.2.75 can continue the current prolonged (BA.2.12.1 morphed into BA.5) #Omicron wave in the US. If it is a #Delta-breakthrough variant indeed, then the South would be especially vulnerable, and August is a fruitful time of the year for SARS2 in the South.

and [url]https://twitter.com/mildanalyst/status/1550938216085209088/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/mildanalyst/status/1550938216085209088/photo/1 






Pandemic News

@mildanalyst
 · 
First BA.2.75 in Arizona 🔥 H/T @RajlabN

DJ...I think as long as BA.2.75 etc. has "freedom to move" it is only a matter of time they find places to spread/explode...mutate further...








One reappearance of the Delta derivative that we saw a few weeks ago.  Same sewershed and same mutations as before.

1

3

13


DJ...Delta or other older variants, mutated new subtypes, recombinations also a major worry...

Josette Schoenmakers

@JosetteSchoenma
 · 


Image

Image
My view and data on BA.2.75: - India is a very big country, best to look at regions. - Even regions are bi
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2022 at 11:08pm

DJ, 

Limited "pandemic" news [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/argentine-hemorrhagic-fever/argentina-three-cases-of-argentine-hemorrhagic-fever-reported/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/argentine-hemorrhagic-fever/argentina-three-cases-of-argentine-hemorrhagic-fever-reported/

AHF can be spread by inhaling the excreted particles of the infected mouse, either: saliva, urine or feces. Another way is through the penetration of these particles in mucosal areas or small skin lesions.

It is a disease that causes fever and blood, neurological, renal and cardiovascular disorders that, without treatment, can progress to death in a period of one to two weeks.

Not very likely to have CoViD links...Symptoms -like in polio- may be mistaken as CoViD ones in milder cases...








Immunology is fascinating. Just found this interesting study published last year. It concludes that patients who developed mild COVID-19 may not be able to fight reinfection very effectively because their CD8+ T cells show signs of exhaustion. 1/

Why "herd immunity" for CoViD fails, CoViD weakening immunity...If some CoViD vaccines also results in less immunity we may have a major problem. Even if those vaccines would see less immunity for just a few weeks after vaccination...boosters may result in several times a few weeks less defenses...








“Despite my two boosters and excellent overall health, COVID made me sicker than I'd been for decades, with a fever, massive congestion, crushing fatigue, and a body that ached like I'd been beaten with a baseball bat. I'm still hacking after two weeks. It's no cold.”

DJ, for "a lot of people" my impression is CoViD itself-the acute phase- often may be mild...Only some get very ill...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ daily deaths so far is "limited" from CoViD within 4 weeks after a positive test...

[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps however indicating excess deaths is a problem (but in these statistics also heatwave-deaths are included..."chronic/long" CoViD in combination with a heatwave is "no joke"...) 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table 68 countries report CoViD deaths % going up...(91 countries see cases increasing...).  "Direct" CoViD deaths per week still above 12,000...close to 2,000 per day as far as being reported... New Cases close to 1 million per day as far as reported...

Some questions;

-Do (most) new CoViD cases catch one variant of CoViD or some get more then one (say BA.5.1 AND BA.2.75 ???)

-How does CoViD in combination with Monkeypox work out ? More severe disease ? More mutations in both virusses ? 

-Some estimates go to several millions infections per day-most missed/not tested- long term perspectives ? Could we face "tens of thousends of deaths per day" this winter/december-march 2023 ? Australia deaths +23%, New Zealand +7%...however South Africa -40%, Chile -8%, Argentina +33%...

-[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues lots of new mutations/variants...How many of them will become problematic ? 

-Spread in animals could keep this pandemic going for years/decades...what is the "best possible scenario"? 

Caroline Lea #SafeEdForAll_UK

@CarolineLea13
 · 
I’m immunocompromised Tested positive this morning for covid (which I think can be traced back to doctors surgery) Called #111 this morning - told antivirals would be sorted It’s 8pm and nothing I’m running out of time! @NHSuk

-Is healthcare already collapsing in silence ? 

For India;


#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #India  Top Circulating Lineages (#30DayTrends): 20.7%  unassigned 16.6%   BA.2.76 12.9%   BA.2.38 10.2%   BA.2 9.1%      BA.5.2 8.5%     BA.2.75 6.1%      BF.3 4.2%     BA.5.2.1 Tracker: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/VariantDashboard_INDIA/VariantDashboard

link [url]https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/VariantDashboard_INDIA/VariantDashboard[/url] or https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/VariantDashboard_INDIA/VariantDashboard BA.2.76 and BA.2.75 now major...

US;









#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 18.60% BA.5.2.1 11.80% unassigned 11.03% BA.2.12.1 9.50% BA.5.5 8.49% BA.5.1 6.42% BA.4.1 6.09% BA.5.2 4.87% BA.5.6 4.56% BA.5   Tracker: http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7 #OmicronUpdates 07/24/22 

DJ [url]https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard[/url] or https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard BA.5.2.1 at #1, BA.2.12.1 at #2...in the US BA.2.75/BA.2.76 still under 0,01% in sequenced samples...

DJ-I expect more news later on in this week...[url]https://twitter.com/potus[/url] or https://twitter.com/potus has no news -yet- on bidens health...

End for today...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 25 2022 at 11:38pm

DJ,

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/urgent-studies-needed-to-assess-if-sars-cov-2-can-cause-missense-mutations-in-human-dna-and-give-rise-to-new-medical-conditions-never-seen-before[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/urgent-studies-needed-to-assess-if-sars-cov-2-can-cause-missense-mutations-in-human-dna-and-give-rise-to-new-medical-conditions-never-seen-before ; Some diseases are caused by a virus changing how DNA copies...radiation, some chemicals, but also virus can effect DNA reproduction...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amyotrophic_lateral_sclerosis#Genetics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amyotrophic_lateral_sclerosis#Genetics on ALS there is still a lot unknown...In sporadic ALS, there is no family history of the disease.[19] Sporadic ALS and familial ALS appear identical clinically and pathologically and are similar genetically;[54] about 10% of people with sporadic ALS have mutations in genes that are known to cause familial ALS

has a big ?...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sickle_cell_disease#Genetics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sickle_cell_disease#Genetics also a big ? 

So-YES maybe CoViD infection may result in genetic problems...the more reason in trying NOT to get infected ! DJ-one question I have is if vaccines do not stop infection-but limit (initial) disease may vaccines then give a false sense of security ? 

Not only did massive vaccinations while not stopping the spread result in immunity evading variants...Vaccines may also not be protecting against some of the aspects CoViD infections can bring...?  Maybe some vaccines protect better then others ? Again I am not an expert...just trying to figure out what protection vaccines do give and what they do not provide...

Also lots of vaccinated people still get infected...Does vaccination weaken immunity ? For how long ? What aspects ? 

Could massive vaccinations in combination with massive Non Pharma Interventions have worked ? 

Of course offering all kinds of diseases free global travel does NOT help !

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-french-researchers-identify-two-unique-phenotypes-of-sars-cov-2-infections-related-myocarditis[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-french-researchers-identify-two-unique-phenotypes-of-sars-cov-2-infections-related-myocarditis 

DJ-Vaccines have to cause an immunity effect to be working...however they should not bring serious disease...Polio vaccines with live virus-parts may be "to much" resulting in disease...even spread. 

I am willing to believe "experts" did their best to produce the safest vaccines against CoViD they could think of....Vaccines are not "new"...but SARS-2 in many ways was...Did the "experts" know enough of CoViD to develop safe vaccines ? 

Also the present monkeypox spreading around the globe is behaving much different from the known (West/Central Africa) variants...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/07/25/nl-starts-preventive-vaccination-monkeypox-amsterdam-hague[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/07/25/nl-starts-preventive-vaccination-monkeypox-amsterdam-hague 

DJ-with my very limited medical knowledge...would STOP THE SPREAD not be a much better alternative for vaccines ? 

It reminds me of trying to end a wildfire with "new very effective chemicals" but in practice those chemicals worsen the fire...you would be better of using water, sand etc...Maybe a bit of a "conservative" look...but NPI, stop the spread has shown itself to be effective....

DJ Let me link the pandemic (lack of) strategy with the Ukraine-biden-war...[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/07/another-crazy-plot-by-ukraines-secret-service-just-blew-up-flimsy-excuses-follow.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/07/another-crazy-plot-by-ukraines-secret-service-just-blew-up-flimsy-excuses-follow.html a lot of "talk" PR, empty words and lies....

Yes RT/Sputnik still banned in many countries are state-run...Also goes for Iran, China media....but is "the free western press" "embedded" doing better ? When I look at [url]https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1271347.shtml[/url] or https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1271347.shtml I know I get the view from the Chinese rulers...(Lavrov Russian FM visiting Egypt...!)

Western media in this pandemic to much did follow government/CDC stories...to limited critical questions....MSM failed..like they failed in the many wars the west did start...like they fail in the biden-war against "Putin"....

There was a Dutch song about East- and West-Berlin...during the cold war...You could protest in the west but were ignored...[url]https://muzikum.eu/en/klein-orkest/over-de-muur-lyrics-english-translation[/url] or https://muzikum.eu/en/klein-orkest/over-de-muur-lyrics-english-translation  In "the east" you had to be a party member, in the "west" you have to be rich....

The "west" went for "vaccines and freedom" ...the "east" went for zero-CoViD, NPI, masks....








*Nervous Laugh* Interferon resistance of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants

link [url]https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2203760119[/url] or https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2203760119 ;

Significance

In just over 2 years, SARS-CoV-2 has infected 500 million people, causing more than 6 million COVID-19 deaths. High infection rates have provided substantial opportunities for the virus to evolve, as variants with enhanced transmissibility, pathogenesis, and resistance to neutralizing antibodies have emerged. While much focus has centered on the Spike protein, mutations were also detected in other viral proteins that may inhibit the interferons, two of which, IFNα2 and IFNβ, are being repurposed for COVID-19 treatment. Here, we compared the potency of diverse human interferons against ancestral and emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2. Our data revealed increased interferon resistance in SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, suggesting a significant but underappreciated role for innate immunity in driving the next phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

DJ...are we running out of tools -other then NPI- against CoViD ????

UK cases [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time still going down...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table still reflecting low/no weekend reporting...

End of part 1...maybe more later...limited time...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 26 2022 at 11:14pm

DJ, 

I find it getting harder not to get cynical; both wars and pandemics seem to be ways to get "public fiat money" becoming private money for shareholders in big pharma, military...

(western) politics as a crime-scheme...NOT interested in solutions...only going for profits for "the few" eventhough it will kill billions...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9dS-eb7qmI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9dS-eb7qmI Alexander Mercouris admitting he does no longer understand US/western foreign policies...not only pushing for war with Russia but also-via Israel-war with Iran...a war with China...(Taiwan just one of the poinst of conflict). The "only point" I see is money...greed...insanity...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/07/26/netherlands-monkeypox-cases-climbs-818[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/07/26/netherlands-monkeypox-cases-climbs-818 with [url]https://pride.amsterdam/[/url] or https://pride.amsterdam/ coming up this weekend...STOP THE SPREAD ! 

There is no "gay virus" but for now a lot of spread is via gay men...I am not against gay-rights at all-but when most of the monkeypox-spread for now is via gay men could we try to limit it ? 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/07/26/nijmegen-sees-spike-positive-covid-tests-vierdaagse-marches[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/07/26/nijmegen-sees-spike-positive-covid-tests-vierdaagse-marches do we have to organize mass-spread events ? Act as if there are no pandemics ? 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table has lost most of its use...If you do not test you will not find cases...even if you find cases (of CoViD, monkeypox, other diseases) ...if you do not report them "no problem"...

Still India cases +3%, deaths +12% the BA.2.75 "likes" spreading...Japan reporting 154,011 new cases, Germany 121,780, South Korea 99,268...Japan (and Iran) cases +72%, South Korea +62%, Germany -12%...

music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOzO_4NS8NI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOzO_4NS8NI Diana Ross-1976 "If there's a cure for this I dont want it" Love hangover...








“At least 233 TSA staffers at LAX have tested positive for the coronavirus since an outbreak was first detected among workers June 9…” But don’t worry that’s just normal now and reflects spread in the community. And besides services weren’t affected. https://latimes.com/california/story/2022-07-25/covid-outbreaks-hit-tsa-american-airlines-southwest-airlines-at-lax

and 

Important UK study look at new diagnoses of diabetes & heart problems in year following covid. They included 430K people with Covid and 430K matched controls. Risks were higher for both - much much higher for cardiovascular problems. Covid risk isn't just the initial illness.

give an impression of the totally insane situation we are in...

Of course I could also include "climate collapse" in the story [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/arctic-sea-ice-july-2022.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/arctic-sea-ice-july-2022.html ...since I am not an expert I allow myself some "phantasies/hopium"; could landice slipping into the ocean -from Greenland, Antarctica- maybe "buy us time"? 

One aspect of land-ice moving into the ocean is ice-pressure on land going down. The three kilometer thick ice sheet on Greenland would push the Greenland land-mass 1 kilometer down...Antarctica will be much the same in some Antarctic area's (some other parts of Antarctica do not have snow or ice at all...).  High mountains are glued with ice...if that ice melts the mountain will break down...collapse...

Glaciers gone may mean drinking water gone....Landice melting means more earthquakes when the land under the ice moves upwards...








Our pandemic response is like getting lost in the woods. It’s never too late to start traveling in the right direction. Nobody gets lost in the woods and decides, I’ve been lost for too long or we’re in too deep, we have to live hear now. We have to continue to find a path out

DJ..."our leaders want war"....not solutions....






NationalNursesUnited

@NationalNurses
 · 
Waiting until cases skyrocket before implementing mask mandates creates a dangerous lag time between increased transmission and prevention measures that could actually help. @CDCgov must take action ASAP to strengthen Covid-19 guidance. https://nationalnursesunited.org/press/nurses-urge-cdc-take-immediate-action-strengthen-covid-19-guidance-protect-public-health

DJ, this pandemic has been the outcome of failing policies from day 1...NOT stopping (air)travel-dieases/variants get free global travel...Going for vaccines that do not stop infections and/or spread only limit (initial) disease...even masks is asking to much...

#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 22.86% BA.5.2.1 9.90% BA.5.5 9.74% BA.5.1 8.85% BA.2.12.1 8.35% BA.5.2 7.06% BA.4.1 5.70% BA.5.6 5.47% BA.5 3.89% BA.4 3.52% BA.4.6   Tracker: http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7 #OmicronUpdates 07/26/22 

and [url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1552090503696482304/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1552090503696482304/photo/1 BA.2.75 likes still very limited in the US...

I notice a sense of disbelieve, horror, on twitter...good experts stopping on twitter...What is the point of providing data if there is NO action ? 

What is the use of science when science only gets ignored ? 

DJ You can warn people...but if "leaders do not listen" they-and the people-will learn reality in a (very) hard way...

The end (well at least for today...stay safe &sane...enjoy the good things of live !)

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 27 2022 at 9:39pm

DJ, 

I look at the world from a historic perspective...Not that history "copies" itself"  but there are "patterns"...Human interaction with nature may be the main 'pattern"...the climate crisis, pandemics are the outcome of our interaction with nature...

I did write "scenario's" since the start of this pandemic almost...Economy and healthcare are interconnected. Without a functioning economy there will be no healthcare...Other side-if there is no healthcare we may not have much of an economy...

People killing eachother on a large scale -"wars"- may be the darkest side of humans...The present Ukraine war bringing massive murder closer to "the west" then most people in that west like...Of course wars are not new...Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen all did suffer western sponsored wars....for years, killing millions...The Congo war has been going on for decades-hardly "news"...

So where are we now ? 

If you ignore science problems will only get worse...Repeating vaccines without a good vaccine strategy (STOP THE SPREAD) will result in variants that are better in evading vaccines...That goes for CoViD, also for monkeypox...

Of course "freedom matters" ! But public health matters more in a crisis ! You can not make compromises, deals, with virusses, diseases..!

Monkeypox started its spread via gay men...Intervention "then & there" could have limited that crisis...well we did not intervene...

Another claim CoViD started at Wuhan...okay-then again why did we NOT stop travel in january 2020 ? Why did we allow all kinds of variants from China, India, South Africa, Latin America etc. "travel for free" ? We keep repeating the mistakes hoping for "milder virusses providing group-immunity"....

At the same time healthcare is eroding...lots of healrhcare workers go for other jobs...with better pay, lower risks...Somehow healthcare still not priority #1....

"Can't fix stupid...even if stupid will kill us all"...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table weekly new cases as far as tested/reported 6 million+ last two weeks...Close to 12,500 deaths last 7 days...the week before reported/tested CoViD deaths within 4 weeks after positive tests was 14,000+ ...2,000 per day...a new "normal"....

Oceania now is in winter, cases there +4%, deaths +15%...looking at Latin America, Africa however there is no "winter increase of cases"...(based on statistics...). 

Japan jumps out, cases +84%, deaths +128% (178 last week, 405 deaths these last 7 days). Cases in Japan went from 650,000 to over 1,2 million in the last 7 days...

-background;

The US is exporting its inflation via increasing interest rates (with that the US$) inside the US. However both the US$ and the Euro/€ are "market priced"...

The west is now at war with the rest....and "we" are losing that war...Russia managed to "take over" global energy...OPEC+ no longer under US control...the "petro-dollar" is now history...

The US was the main oil producer in the first half of the 20th century...when "the middle east" did take over in the early 70's the US changed "oil for gold" as backing...In a cynical view one could now claim both the US$ and Euro/€ are "backed by debt" ...our creditors do not want us to go bankrupt...at least not now...

The Internet needs energy...and a lot of it...Why start a cyber-war when an energy-war could bring the same outcome ? 

The western sanctions war on Russia is backfiring...Why should Russia provide its enemies-going for regimechange in Moscow- provide energy to push for regime change ? 

-End of the road...

In many ways we have been "driving high speed" in a dead-end street. We soon may find out how this street ends...will it be a concrete wall...or will the road end as a bumpy non-hardened path...

History has "turningpoints", maybe the latest major one was 9-11 2001 ? Global airtraffic as good as halted for a few days...an economic shockwave...startingpoint of a "war on terror" used to try to get Iraq, Libyan etc. oil under US control...

A new major turningpoint is on its way...[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/stunning-massive-escalation-of-ukraine-war[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/stunning-massive-escalation-of-ukraine-war ...

DJ-I think Russia wants an end to the war in Ukraine before winter...since there is no point in talking to "the west" or its Kiev-puppet Russia will go for all out war in Ukraine...I would not be surprised if [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-fired-israeli-jets-over-syria-one-israels-defense-chief[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-fired-israeli-jets-over-syria-one-israels-defense-chief Russia, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Türkiye "cleaned up" Iraq and Syria from "unwanted foreign intervention"...kick out the US...

China may make its points...joined by Russia in the Pacific....[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-military-makes-plans-protect-pelosi-after-china-warns-forceful-response-over-taiwan[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-military-makes-plans-protect-pelosi-after-china-warns-forceful-response-over-taiwan ..

Of course all well coordinated for maximum effect....North Korea may get included....goal is to kick the US out of Asia....Maybe even Latin America, Africa...

Russia and China making clear THEY are the #1....

It is the western (re)action that will determine further developments...If the "west wants war" it can get war....

-So where will we be coming (northern) winter...?

Russia/China in combination with many others going full economic war against "the west" to stop a neo-colonial "global NATO"....make trade-not war as a Chinese strategy... very likely hurting the west much more then bombs may do....

"Post-pandemic increase in demand" now in MSM as "cause of inflation"....Non-sense...

1, we are now in TWO pandemics not one...

2. Shortage on the labormarket at least in part pandemic related; tens-if not hundreds-of millions of chronic/acute CoViD cases...

3. The "sanctions war" is yet another disaster....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#Definition[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation#Definition ; In 1956, Phillip Cagan wrote The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation, the book often regarded as the first serious study of hyperinflation and its effects[5] (though The Economics of Inflation by C. Bresciani-Turroni on the German hyperinflation was published in Italian in 1931[6]). In his book, Cagan defined a hyperinflationary episode as starting in the month that the monthly inflation rate exceeds 50%, and as ending when the monthly inflation rate drops below 50% and stays that way for at least a year.[7] Economists usually follow Cagan's description that hyperinflation occurs when the monthly inflation rate exceeds 50% (this is equivalent to a yearly rate of 12874.63%)

DJ Since both the US$ (and lots of other $) and Euro/€ are "debt based" , "Asia" controls energy, food, electronics etc. "Asia" puts the price..."we" have limited/no alternatives...

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/07/exclusions-and-sanctions-help-enemies-to-build-their-own-capabilities.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/07/exclusions-and-sanctions-help-enemies-to-build-their-own-capabilities.html the outcome of decades of sanctionswar against (mainly) Asia is "they do not need us any longer"....

Western boycot of Sputnik-V , Chinese vaccines made clear what "the west" means with a "free market"; other countries have to buy our goods at prices we make...The US now trying that strategy on the EU with LNG, [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-government-asks-us-provide-gas-lend-lease[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-government-asks-us-provide-gas-lend-lease ...US deliver gas to Ukraine...payment later...US strategic oil going to Europe...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/guess-who-bought-up-ukraine-farmland-since-2014-coup[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/guess-who-bought-up-ukraine-farmland-since-2014-coup

Since the 2014 Coup which overthrew Democratically elected President Viktor Yanukovich, and put a puppet regime, favorable to the west, in his place . . . .

three giant corporations -- Cargill, DuPont and Monsanto -- bought seventeen million hectares of Ukraine agricultural land.   That's sixty percent (60%) of the total agricultural land in Ukraine!

DJ...Non-western countries could "nationalize" western companies just as easy as the west did "freeze"steal accounts of Iran, Russia, Venezuela....

Again...if "we" want a confrontation we can get a confrontation....

A concrete wall at the end of the dead-end street would be nuclear war...but a major cyber-war, conventional war could also be "bad"...

A "path" at the end of the street may offer "us" time to rethink, reposition...US, Canada, Europe may be interesting for Chinese, India, Russian investors....THEY come for our oil and gas -without any care for the enviroment- like we did to them....THEY come for our agri-culture...maybe some "whites" may be usefull as low cost workforce....

"We" ...the west...treated most other people as "second class" ...pay back time may be coming...We did not give a s..t about healthcare in Africa, Asia, Latin America....Population may be "in the way" for mining and food production...

I think we may still have some chance of "damage control" by talking to Russia on "mutual security in Europe", talking to Asian and other countries on realistic "free trade" NOT neo-colonialism...but that would need western "leaders" being realistic....

Enough for today...



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 28 2022 at 11:12pm

DJ, 

Let me start with great music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uAUoz7jimg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uAUoz7jimg Chicago -live- 25 or 6 to 4 (concert in Tanglewood MA.US july 21 1970)...just love it !

At least part of the news on pandemics/wars is no longer "new" ....US-biden-pushing now also for war with China, Iran...In the UK bojo had to step down (some think this clown should lead NATO...). In Italy Mario Draghi stepped down over minor issues because (as Alexander Mercouris puts it) Draghi can see what may be coming...in fact western collapse...

in the US biden claiming "he did beat CoViD" we will see about that...when will harris replace biden...before or after mid-term in november...Here in NL farmers keep blocking roads from time to time...I think a lot of Dutch (like me) are totally fed up with present politics but do not yet see good alternatives...

San Francisco-US-state of emergency for monkeypox...New York, London, Amsterdam also may be moving into the wrong direction...a growing number of cases very likely no longer in gay men...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory now 22,000 confirmed global cases...It may have West African roots-this monkeypox virus behaves much more agressive...Vaccines while not stopping the spread may result in better evasion of immunity...So far monkeypox seems to be unpleasant but not a major killer...

I may have missed to CoViD background for monkeypox cases...most likely because it may not be very clear any longer. New monkeypox cases in people with and without CoViD disease or vaccination...The 1 million monkeypox cases by november looks realistic...inaction the rule...

For CoViD [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table may give an indication...july 28 had 931,879 new cases reported...with no numbers from the UK, Türkiye, Spain, Canada..2,043 CoViD deaths reported...July 27 had over 1 million cases, 2,404 deaths reported...with most cases and deaths not reported ...

There are some claims "most of the population" did get vaccines against CoViD...12 billion+ vaccines being used...however some countries went for lots of boosters...On a global population of close to 8 billion-if an average for those getting vaccinated may be getting 3 vaccines (12;3=4) then 4 billion people may have been vaccinated...if the average would be 4 it may be 3 billion people (fully) vaccinated...

The vaccine strategy is a major disaster...masive use of non-sterilizing vaccines-protecting against disease but not against infection-while not stopping the spread is pushing for more vaccine evasion...The real number of people catching the CoViD virus will be in the billions...(worldometers moving towards 580 million tested/reported cases since the start of this pandemic). 

A look at twitter; 








The most important question in public health: Is the public h̶e̶a̶l̶t̶h̶y̶ i̶n̶f̶o̶r̶m̶e̶d̶ ̶s̶a̶f̶e̶ ̶p̶r̶o̶t̶e̶c̶t̶e̶d̶ calm?

and








Number of Americans in ICU with COVID-19 reaches 5,000, highest since March

DJ, yesterday-july 28-Japan reported 207,236 new cases, 122 deaths...Australia 46,558 new cases 125 deaths...but "we have to live with disease"...

#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 23.94% BA.5.2.1 10.49% BA.5.5 10.48% BA.5.1 8.77% BA.5.2 8.19% BA.2.12.1 6.59% BA.4.1 5.90% BA.5.6 5.01% BA.5 3.88% BA.4 2.83% BA.4.6   Tracker: http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7 #OmicronUpdates 07/28/22 

for the US [url]https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard[/url] or https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard BA.2.75 likes staying under 0,01% ..for now...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues did report a new mutated BA.5.2.1 subvariant in the US...

[url]https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(22)00321-4/fulltext#secsectitle0015[/url] or https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(22)00321-4/fulltext#secsectitle0015 Even mild cases may see years long symptoms...

DJ long/chronic CoViD is becoming the most spread form of CoViD replacing the acute phase...Long CoViD=CoViD !

New York state declares monkeypox an imminent threat; San Francisco issues state of emergency over virus https://nbcnews.com/health/health-news/new-york-state-declares-monkeypox-imminent-threat-san-francisco-issues-rcna40552 via 

-

“San Francisco showed during COVID that early action is essential for protecting public health,” said Mayor London Breed in a statement announcing the declaration.

Of course a big question now is how will CoViD combinate with monkeypox-disease ? One infection makes the host more vulnerable for the other...CoViD AND monkeypox does not look like a very good combination...When will we see "long/chronic monkeypox"?...new variants of it ? ...spread in/via non-human hosts ?

Of course H5 avian flu also at record levels this year...H5N1, H5N6, H7N7 close to major spread in humans ? 

End of part 1


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part 2, 

Fitting music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGDUi0bOO8g[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JGDUi0bOO8g Dana-1976...I do believe that you believe your fairytale....

Alexander Mercouris [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-tLEPsH5Eo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-tLEPsH5Eo on the EU going for CIA/MI6 "intel" that Russia would collapse under EU sanctions....Well they were wrong again...Now the CIA is claiming Russia did lose 70,000 military in Ukraine...any realism may point at less then 10,000 (pro) Russian deaths..

Embedded media going for the Ukraine-Kherson offensive...with NO air cover, hardly enough well trained military Ukraine would retake the south of Ukraine...Also a "major offensive" planned in august...

DJ The CIA missed the Afghanistan US puppet government collapse, its claims on W.M.D. in Iraq-2003 was wrong (eventhough the US paid for Weapons of Mass Destruction for Iraq-via Saudi Arabia-in the 1980-88 Iraq-Iran war...). You need governments to be informed -but if "intel" only provides the info the government wants it is the end of "intel"...

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/07/provoking-beijing.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/07/provoking-beijing.html of course the US has been supporting "democratic movements" in Tibet, under Uyghurs, in Hong Kong...since the 1950-53 Korean War....[url]https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1271693.shtml[/url] or https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1271693.shtml 

One option is China goes for a "no-fly zone" over Taiwan (Taiwan itself sees it as part of China...the Chinese civil war did freeze with two China's...Just like the two Korea's...once the two Vietnams...we know how the Vietnam-story went...The US want that story repeated ?). 

DJ-Since the East Asia conflict involves much more then just Taiwan, there is the South China Sea, Japan rebuilding its military, the Korea "question"., US support on Japan claims on the Kuril Islands....Russia and China may decide "a red line is a red line". There are lots of smaller islands north and east of Taiwan now under Japan occupation but with China having claims on them....Largest Island may be [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okinawa_Island[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Okinawa_Island (with long time historic links to Japan [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Ryukyu_Islands[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Ryukyu_Islands Like Taiwan/Formosa [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Taiwan[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Taiwan one may link it also with the Philippines, Pacific Island States). 

The US has been using Japan-Taiwan-(Philippines) as a blockade for (Russia and) China getting to much influance in the Pacific. Russia and China have decided the US must leave Asia...if need be by force...From the Middle East (Syria, Iraq)  to East Asia (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan). 

The Ukraine war has Ukraine forces de facto under US/UK command...fighting Russia. The US is using jihadi extremists in South Asia...(allthough now Saudi Arabia thinking of joining BRICS that may change...). 

Why further US-biden- provocations? 

Maybe as distraction from the west losing the Ukraine war...in itself a distraction from CoViD out of control ? 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-we-go-again-wuhan-locks-down-1-million-people-after-detecting-four-covid-cases[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-we-go-again-wuhan-locks-down-1-million-people-after-detecting-four-covid-cases China going much more for "zero-CoViD" the best they can...the "west" going for non-excisting "herd-immunity"...resulting in more subvariants, more immunity evasion...the pandemic not only getting worse but also other diseases on the rise...

Western answer...more vaccines....while NOT stopping the spread....

The growing sublineages in Denmark are BA.5.2, BA.5.1.2, BA.5.3.3, but mostly BA.2.75. 0,05%, 0,15% and 0,28% in subsequent weeks. But because of the small numbers, let's wait and see.

DJ, Lots of subvariants now co-spreading. Testing very limited so sequencing only catching a glimpse...so far summer did see cases lower...more outdoor activity meant less spread...It now is the end of july...August last month of summer...end of august, early september schools reopen, people return from holliday destinations...September start of autumn/fall...

Some countries in "the global south" winter face very major CoViD crises...(Australia) others (South Africa/Suid Afrika) see cases still limited...The CoViD-background of a region may be a factor...lots of one subvariant may limit the spread of another variant...while lack of a previous subvariant may see lots of new cases of a newer variant...

Limited news on non-human Omicron cases...testing/sequencing may be overstretched...Good to see [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time UK CoViD cases going down still...









This is elegant and brilliantly simple Before you start babbling about correlation and chocolate consumption and Nobel laureates This is a signal that warrants further investigation and suggests a relationship between SARS2 and hepatitis that must be further explored Simple

-

Dr. Deepti Gurdasani

@dgurdasani1
 · 
Whatever you believe about paeds hepatitis, here's a visual plot of SARS-2 positivity against excess A&E visits of 1-4 yr olds with liver condition from 2020 onwards. Orange lines are excess A&E visits, and blue line is the SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in young children lagged to fit.

There is a lack of reporting in lots of media now both on CoViD and monkeypox...as if ignoring the problem-starting more wars-is the answer...

End of part 2


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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part 1 

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXgkuM2NhYI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXgkuM2NhYI Davd Bowie -Heroes- 1977

After the dead of Charlemange [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Verdun[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Verdun "Francia" in 843 was split in three parts. France in the west, Germany in the east and in the middle "Lorraine" ...NL, Belgium, Luxemburg, Switzerland were part of this "Middle-state"...they still speak a "mix" of their old own languages...with lots of influence of both French and German...

One could claim the Roman invasion of what now is the UK did become part of the Irish-English conflict...

My point; To understand long term processes you may have to dig deep...

In pandemics one question-how new is CoViD-at least can get answers...we did see SARS-1, MERS this century...the "Russian Flu" 1880-1890 is discussed...corona virusses are NOT new...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus . Maybe the virus could be even older then the human species....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus#Origins[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus#Origins ; Viruses are found wherever there is life and have probably existed since living cells first evolved.[23] The origin of viruses is unclear because they do not form fossils, so molecular techniques are used to investigate how they arose.[24] In addition, viral genetic material occasionally integrates into the germline of the host organisms, by which they can be passed on vertically to the offspring of the host for many generations. This provides an invaluable source of information for paleovirologists to trace back ancient viruses that have existed up to millions of years ago. There are three main hypotheses that aim to explain the origins of viruses

DJ, Maybe "corona-virus" itself may be "new"...Since virusses are on the border of life...they need hosts (at least now) for reproduction (but hosts could be bacteria...). The general idea could indicate "corona-viral history" may indeed go back millions of years, pre-dating human species...

So-do we need a "lab-leak" to explain corona virusses showing up ? In my eyes that "theory" gets close to "flat-earth"...YES there are lots of (gain of function) studies in labs...high risk, and there have been accidents...But given bats carry over 30 corona-virusses, the way virusses did spread in history..."lab-leak" is not the most likely explanation...(fitting more in an anti-China agenda...).

We have been living with corona virusses as humans all of human existence.  Russian Flu ended, SARS-1 was limited, MERS only showing up in very low numbers...can we "live" with CoViD/SARS-2 ? 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/07/27/covid-19-caused-8-netherlands-deaths-first-quarter[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/07/27/covid-19-caused-8-netherlands-deaths-first-quarter

The coronavirus was still a common cause of death at the beginning of this year. In the first quarter of this year, 3,480 people in the Netherlands died of Covid-19, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) calculated. That is 8.1 percent of the total number of deaths in the first three months of 2022.

CBS based its figures on established causes of death. Information about this is generally passed on to the stats office later than reports of the death itself. That is why a clear picture of the causes of death can only form after a few months.

Compared to the first quarter of 2021, the number of deaths attributable to the coronavirus was more than half lower at the beginning of this year. In the first three months of 2021, 8,964 people in the Netherlands died from Covid-19, 19 percent of the total deaths.

and [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps Excess mortality going up in Europe...however a major part of it related to heatwaves...

DJ [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/07/29/new-round-covid-vaccinations-starting-september[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/07/29/new-round-covid-vaccinations-starting-september lots of countries starting another round of vaccinations...We may not even be out of the "summer wave" and are told to prepare for the next wave..."new vaccines doing a better job"....

My view-just my opinion-vaccination strategy only making matters worse....healthcare is close to breaking point...we need a more effective strategy. 

-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory now also including monkeypox deaths in Brazil, Spain...The US now #1 with 5,189 confirmed cases of monkeypox. Spain at #2 with 4,371 monkeypox cases...I did see a statistician calculating cases per million of population...Germany at #3 2,595 cases being reported..the UK long time was the #1...may have stopped reporting most cases...The close to 23,000 confirmed cases may be only 10% ??? of any realistic number ? 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/latest-taiwanese-study-shows-that-phytochemicals-such-as-tannins-can-be-used-to-treat-covid-19-including-infections-by-new-omicron-variants[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/latest-taiwanese-study-shows-that-phytochemicals-such-as-tannins-can-be-used-to-treat-covid-19-including-infections-by-new-omicron-variants DJ, maybe my diet including tea, (dark) chocolate sprinkles, breakfast including an orange...coffee has some use ? I use anti-histamins against hay-fever...








Re: functional immune exhaustion “Selin, working with her own cells [she has #MEcfs], found that only 1-3% of her CD8+ T cells were producing these cytokines. This is in stark contrast to the amount found in healthy controls, which ranges from 50-70%” #CFS #PwME #CFSME #MyE

DJ "Immune exhaustion" as a cause for chronic ("long") CoViD...most CoViD cases will be chronic by now...








There it is.  BA.2.75 was in one of our US sewershed samples from last week.  It was about 13% of the sequence in that sewershed.   Here's the RBD sequence, pretty unmistakable.   K417N-N440K-G446S-N460K-S477N-T478K-E484A-Q498R-N501Y-Y505H

DJ First indications for the US BA.5.2.1 has competition of BA.2.75...sewage samples as an early indicator...

-Vaccines may be part of a strategy in "living with corona virusses" but maybe only a small part...Vaccines may have caused (just my opinion !) the virus to develop (via mutation selection) to better evade immunity/vaccines...

Non Pharma Interventions may help "limit" CoViD, monkeypox, other diseases...we need to start taking the pandemics serious. 

STOP THE SPREAD !!! It is totally insane we keep offering all kinds of diseases, (sub)variants free travel around the globe !!! "We" do not stop "climate change", we fail to stop pandemics...only going for profit-"politicians"..."crazy people" killing themselves !

The other side of "freedom" is "responsability"...if we fail to see that we will pay a price...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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part 2

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gfIgA-PYyQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gfIgA-PYyQ The Stranglers -No More Heroes- 1977

This global healthcrisis has a background...at present one would expect international cooperation and trillions of $, € going to healthcare to get us out of this crisis...It is very sad to see that;

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pelosi-leading-delegation-asia-taiwan-stop-not-clear[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pelosi-leading-delegation-asia-taiwan-stop-not-clear 

and [url]https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1271601.shtml[/url] or https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202207/1271601.shtml ; A parliamentary delegation led by former Japanese defense ministers arrived in China's Taiwan island on Wednesday to discuss "security concerns" across the Taiwan Straits. The move is seen by experts as a pretext to hype conflict, with the true intention of expanding Japan's military power.

DJ After provoking Russia by NATO expansionism-breaking agreements made in 1990 NATO would NOT move East...Now "the west" breaking its "One China policy". The US now joining Japan in the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuril_Islands_dispute ...

Taiwan sees itself as "China"-the PRC Peoples Republic of China has the same idea...an outcome of the Chinese civil war [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War 1927-1949 with a pause 1937-45 to fight Japan...Taiwan does NOT want independence-it would like to rule all of China....

Again North/South Vietnam ended in 1975 in unification...North/South Korea -outcome of world war 2- has unification as an end goal...(Yemen, Germany were split-unification followed. Sudan, Ireland still split...history is full of this kinds of conflicts...My hope was that in Europe -on Cyprus- the EU could limit conflict. But often the EU made matters worse...). 

-Maybe some history again; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Japanese_War[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Japanese_War ; The Soviet Union joined the western allies against Japan per august 9 1945-three months after the end of the (major) war in Europe...

Some claim the US used nuclear weapons on Hirosjima and Nagasaki not against Japan but to send a signal to the Soviet Union...Timing 6 and 9 of august-with the Soviet Union joining the western allies against Japan could be seen in that way...

On 18 August, several Soviet amphibious landings had been conducted ahead of the land advance: three in northern Koreaone in South Sakhalin, and one in the Chishima Islands. In Korea at least, there were already Soviet soldiers waiting for the troops coming overland. In Karafuto and the Chishimas, that meant a sudden and undeniable establishment of Soviet sovereignty.

On 10 August, the US government proposed to the Soviet government to divide the occupation of Korea between them at the 38th parallel north. The Americans were surprised that the Soviet government accepted. Soviet troops were able to move freely by rail, and there was nothing to stop them from occupying the whole of Korea.[35] Soviet forces began amphibious landings in northern Korea by 14 August and rapidly took over the northeast of the peninsula, and on 16 August, they landed at Wonsan.[36] On 24 August, the Red Army entered Pyongyang and established a military government over Korea north of the 38th parallel. American forces landed at Incheon on 8 September and took control of the south

DJ Some claim the Soviet Union could invade Japan...Korea has been a Japanese colony for decades, invading South Sakhalin, taking over the Kuril Islands did bring the Soviet Union close to invading [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hokkaido[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hokkaido ; Although there were Japanese settlers who ruled the southern tip of the island since the 16th century, Hokkaido was considered foreign territory that was inhabited by the indigenous people of the island, known as the Ainu people.[3] While geographers such as Mogami Tokunai and Mamiya Rinzō explored the island in the Edo period,[4] Japan's governance was limited to Oshima Peninsula till the 17th century

DJ; "balance of power" restored may have been a basic idea of the major western allies (US, UK). Beat Germany, Italy, Japan but do not destroy them....(but use them...for your own goals). 

After 1945 most of Asia ended up with decolonization-wars and new conflicts (India-(East)Pakistan, [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_of_Indonesia[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_of_Indonesia and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netherlands-Indonesia_Union[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netherlands-Indonesia_Union ).

It may be hard-but there is NO military solution for most of those conflicts. Pakistan-India can destroy each other, North/South Korea same story...The main reason why North Vietnam could take over the south was the South Vietnam "government" was that corrupt and hated it had no public support any longer...

China (PRC) can take action against China/Taiwan ROC (Republic Of China).  The Russian action against Ukraine is NOT the same...(Ukraine has a mixed history with Russia, but also Turkish influences, Polish/Lithuanian background. Taiwan claims also to be (part of) China...).  The US -pelosi 82- visit to Taiwan can only be seen as US provocation...IF pelosi would first visit the PRC and then ROC/Taiwan maybe it could serve some good...

-So instead of trillions of $/€ going to fight the pandemic we see that money going to more weapons...Maybe trade unions could go for national strikes to force governments to "do their job"-protecting public health !


According to Bloomberg it is "surprising" Monkeypox is spreading among kids. And watching it "extremely closely" is the World Health Organization. Do we need "watching"? Watching doesn't solve anything. Antipcation and action solve the problem.

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/monkeypox-remains-viable-in-aeorosol-for-up-to-90-hours/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/monkeypox-remains-viable-in-aeorosol-for-up-to-90-hours/  what part of aerosol-spread the WHO does not understand ? 

BA.2 samples in Amsterdam without L452R, L452Q or L452M (like most BA.2.75) in the last 4 weeks were 4, 2, 0, 3. I am very curious to see what the 3 from this week will turn out te be!

DJ...we have (lots of) CoViD-"waves"...what did change is there may be less and less a dominant sub-variant...more a "mega-mix" of all kinds of CoViD-(sub)variants possibly able to infect a host at the same time...We could be missing a lot of co-infections BA.5/BA.2 subvariants or "Omicron"-Monkeypox...

We don not need the US #3 in power structure (after the president and vice president) visiting Taiwan...A high rank military Japan-delegation in Taiwan while Japan is dealing with very high CoViD cases...

This pandemic is political...close to "genocide by pandemic"! With "leaders" making matters worse not better ! Why do we accept this ?

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ,

Music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMnns_iIB2M[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMnns_iIB2M Tina Charles -1976- I Love To Love (and her baby only loves dancing....)

Message; live now ! 

Coffee; No new news on Taiwan, as expected biden testing positive for CoViD...








U.S. COVID update: - New cases: 160,145 - Average: 131,018 (-759) - States reporting: 31/50 - In hospital: 44,033 (-554) - In ICU: 5,081 (+30) - New deaths: 543 - Average: 440 (+2)

compared to [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table US new cases there for saturday 15,679, deaths 31...friday -july 29- 99,061 new cases, 286 deaths...(would biden be defined as a new case ?)









#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 24.56% BA.5.2.1 10.63% BA.5.1 10.29% BA.5.5 8.87% BA.5.2 7.42% BA.2.12.1 7.28% BA.4.1 6.25% BA.5.6 4.49% BA.5 4.05% BA.4 2.99% BA.4.6   Tracker: http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7 #OmicronUpdates 07/30/22 

and [url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1553546281808809984/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1553546281808809984/photo/1 in the US BA.2.75 still under 0,1%...

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time UK cases also (still) going down...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Asia only region with both cases (+12%) and deaths (+28%)...Japan reporting over 1,3 million new cases last 7 days, 617 deaths...Also Oceania deaths +44%...Australia had 670 deaths in the last 7 days...(testing positive for CoVid-being reported-death within 28 days after positive test). 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory Spain reporting second monkeypox death, total (Brazil also 1) now 3...most likely serious underreporting...

We are down from 99% of monkeypox in men who have sex with men to under 85% in Spain. This is at a point in time, not a fixed result. And this is without wide testing I am guessing we didn't get lucky.

and of course a virus may start its spread in a certain group or area...it does spread wider...Monkeypox also via aerosol/contact -surface...








Lil variant update: The fight now is BA.2.75 vs BA.5.2+Orf1b:1050N BA.5.2.1 +S:1020S BA.5.2.1+ N:33F BA.4 +S:346 mutated BA.5 +S:346 mutated BA.2.38.2 BA.2.38+S:478R/1264L BA.2.75 'd win easily against BA.5  but not vs the ones mentioned above. https://cov-spectrum.org/collections/18

DJ Will the BA.2.75 "like subvariants" take over from the BA.5.2 subvariants ? Or will they co-spread ? 

I would welcome info on CoViD-Monkeypox co-infections...must be hundreds of cases....will result in more disease. Maybe I am missing something ? 

End of part 1...maybe find news & time for a part 2-will focus on the "Taiwan crisis"...latest news/nuclear war. No doubt Russia on the side of China. pelosi [url]https://twitter.com/speakerpelosi/[/url] or https://twitter.com/speakerpelosi/ on an East Asia tour when the US is increasing weapons sale to South Korea, Japan, Taiwan...

DJ -North Korea could do "something stupid" (or false flag ?) -only further increasing US "main export";war...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, 

In latest news-Nuclear War I did write my view on the "Made-in-the-USA" global crisis; some countries may NOT welcome pelosi if she also plans to "visit Taiwan". (DJ-Malaysia could be most likely...but maybe even Taiwan itself may no longer be willing to welcome pelosi...There is China-Taiwan "trade & travel"...why give that up for a pelosi-visit ?).

Monkeypox, 

Some stories;

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/monkeypox-12-infected-at-cadiz-tattoo-parlour/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/monkeypox-12-infected-at-cadiz-tattoo-parlour/ and [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/monkeypox-man-infected-by-a-second-hand-scooter/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/monkeypox-man-infected-by-a-second-hand-scooter/ in Spain new monkeypox cases only 85% of new cases in gay men...Spread via air/surface a more important factor...

Another thread, in Spanish, about a guy who was covered in Monkeypox sores, travelling on a tube train. When asked why he wasn’t isolating, he said his doctor had told him he didn’t need to isolate as monkeypox is a disease only found in gay men! It’s another superspreader event in the making.

DJ...monkeypox only a risk for gaymen is non-sense ! There is NO !!!! gay-virus !!! The second-hand scooter driver shaked hands buying a scooter-got infected...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/monkeypox-extensive-surface-contamination-following-treatment/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/monkeypox-extensive-surface-contamination-following-treatment/ July 2 !!!!!;

Two new preprints just published shed light on possible transmission routes for the Monkeypox virus, in particular, on the possibility of surface contamination as a vector for infection.

A survey of a UK patient’s accommodations post-infection showed that numerous surfaces had been contaminated.

” Monkeypox virus DNA was identified in multiple locations throughout both properties, and monkeypox virus was isolated from several samples three days after the patient was last in these locations.”

-

The second preprint, from Germany, looked at contamination of surfaces in hospitals following the treatment of patients with Monkeypox. This research also found Monkeypox virus on numerous surfaces.

“We systematically examined surfaces of two hospital rooms occupied by monkeypox patients and the adjacent anterooms, which are used for donning and doffing personal protective equipment (PPE), for monkeypox virus contamination using PCR. In addition, we assessed the infectivity on cell culture of the collected samples by virus isolation.”

DJ...Monkeypox spreading in bars, hotels, hospitals...even supermarkets...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/spain-reports-second-monkeypox-death--experts-are-concerned-that-monkeypox-is-still-mutating-with-possible-changing-pathogenesis[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/spain-reports-second-monkeypox-death--experts-are-concerned-that-monkeypox-is-still-mutating-with-possible-changing-pathogenesis (TMN) and of course more cases=more mutations=more variants !!! [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory  now including 2 more deaths (Ghana, India) so 5 monkeypox deaths-many will follow !

Is there interaction between CoViD and monkeypox in hosts catching both diseases-no doubt ! How many HIV+ people have monkeypox is an open question...But more cases-mix with other diseases, unwise use of vaccines all make this pandemic worse !

TMN claiming 1,638 monkeypox cases -reported as such- now in hospitals worldwide. Brain inflamation/encephalitis a major killer...Sex-tourism will become a major spreader in poor countries (and most of the spread/new cases-both via sex, aerosol/surface contacts may no longer be gay-men...). 

CoViD;








Cryptic lineages are highly divergent SARS-CoV-2 sequences that are detected from wastewater but have not been detected in patients.   In total, we have found cryptic lineages in 18/~700 sewersheds we have tested.

-

We've learned a lot in the last 6 months. 1. Some, if not all, of the cryptic lineages are coming from asymptomatic people with very long-term infections.

-

2. Most of the cryptic lineages are derived from very early SARS-CoV-2 lineages, but they don't have to be.   We've also seen a cryptic lineage derived from Alpha and two derived from Delta.

-

3. Some of the cryptic lineages are highly resistant to contemporary immunity.


Image

2

2

12



DJ...we may have missed a lot of CoViD infections...not resulting in symptoms but still spreading & mutating...

And again-"Long/chronic" CoViD IS CoViD !!!! [url]https://www.npr.org/2022/07/31/1114375163/long-covid-longhaulers-disability-labor-ada[/url] or https://www.npr.org/2022/07/31/1114375163/long-covid-longhaulers-disability-labor-ada

4 million full-time equivalent workers out of work because of long COVID.

"That is just a shocking number," says Bach. "That's 2.4% of the U.S. working population."

DJ, Pandemic-strategies in both CoViD and monkeypox are "total disasters" ! Putting "economy first" is ignoring public health resulting in destroying that economy ! 

Like in a fire containment is priority; STOP THE SPREAD ! We are still not doing that....

Second step is-know the risks !!! CoViD may have undermined human immunity in such a degree monkeypox could get major...other diseases WILL ! follow (not "if" but "when"!). 

Of course "science" can produce lots of warnings...but if politics then ignores science there may be "only science for science sake"....

Climate collapse is "not nice or welcome" but we have to react...pandemics also "not nice or welcome"...ignoring them is plain stupid !

"Can't fix stupid will kill us all"!

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory monkeypox deaths now at 6 with so far 24,000 confirmed cases...You have to be "very optimistic" to see that as a "case-fatality-ratio" (CFR) as <1%...Most likely only 1-in-10 cases or worse are recognized/reported. Also monkeypox-deaths may be misdiagnosed. 

There must be lots of people with both CoViD and monkeypox...very likely worsening the perspectives...

Some claim the Ukraine-war was provoked as distraction...now that no longer works-yet another disaster-biden going for war with China..I hope to find time to write more on that in Latest News-Nuclear War...Pelosi may arrive in Taiwan within some hours...Insanity rules !

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/monkeypox-cdc-advises-infected-to-wear-a-mask-and-isolate/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/monkeypox-cdc-advises-infected-to-wear-a-mask-and-isolate/ ;

Current data suggest people can spread monkeypox from the time symptoms start until all symptoms have resolved, including full healing of the rash with formation of a fresh layer of skin. Ideally, people with monkeypox would remain in isolation for the duration of illness, which typically lasts two to four weeks. However, if a person with monkeypox is unable to remain fully isolated throughout the illness, they should do the following:

  • While symptomatic with a fever or any respiratory symptoms, including sore throat, nasal congestion, or cough, remain isolated in the home and away from others unless it is necessary to see a healthcare provider or for an emergency.
    • This includes avoiding close or physical contact with other people and animals.
    • Cover the lesions, wear a well-fitting mask (more information below), and avoid public transportation when leaving the home as required for medical care or an emergency.
  • While a rash persists but in the absence of a fever or respiratory symptoms
    • Cover all parts of the rash with clothing, gloves, and/or bandages.
    • Wear a well-fitting mask to prevent the wearer from spreading oral and respiratory secretions when interacting with others until the rash and all other symptoms have resolved.
    • Masks should fit closely on the face without any gaps along the edges or around the nose and be comfortable when worn properly over the nose and mouth.
  • Until all signs and symptoms of monkeypox illness have fully resolved
    • Do not share items that have been worn or handled with other people or animals. Launder or disinfect items that have been worn or handled and surfaces that have been touched by a lesion.
    • Avoid close physical contact, including sexual and/or close intimate contact, with other people.
    • Avoid sharing utensils or cups. Items should be cleaned and disinfected before use by others.
    • Avoid crowds and congregate settings.
    • Wash hands often with soap and water or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer, especially after direct contact with the rash.

 

CDC: updated advice for monkeypox

-

BNO News

@BNOFeed
 · 
California declares state of emergency due to monkeypox

-

We are urgently looking for food science or food safety experts to discuss monkeypox safety and disinfection in the food supply system from farm to table. Please DM me or email me at yaneer at necsi dot edu Rapid response appreciated

DJ....Like with CoViD statistics (for monkeypox) are "bad"...

-How is the old pox vaccination working out ? Still protecting against monkeypox ?

-CoViD(vaccine) background in monkeypox cases what you would expect via statistics ? How many people with monkeypox did get CoViD-vaccines/infection(s) ? 

-Where are the first animals with monkeypox ? (I expect this month we will get news on that...)

-Monkeypox subvariants ? Encephalitis/brain inflamation killed most of the monkeypox-deaths; a subvariant or common symptom ? 

Monkeypox spreading in the community at large. This is not surprising, but saying it isn't surprising is not the point. What matters is that everyone is at risk and we need to test anyone with (1) a pox type rash, OR (2) ANY rash + fever, headache or swollen glands

DJ; We still may have a chance to limit monkeypox if we do ALL we can...much more ad random testing to detect a-symptomatic/pre-symptomatic spread...(but we offer free travel for monkeypox..free travel for CoViD...are we that stupid ???).

TMN; [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/latest-expect-reinfections-with-sars-cov-2-ba-5-and-ba-2-variants-including-their-subvariants-even-if-you-just-got-infected-with-either-or-are-jabbed[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/latest-expect-reinfections-with-sars-cov-2-ba-5-and-ba-2-variants-including-their-subvariants-even-if-you-just-got-infected-with-either-or-are-jabbed DJ-To put it simple; CoViD is out of control on a global scale...New vaccinations may only offer limited protection for a short while but also create further immune evasion...Long term damage may be severe...Parts of society; healthcare, education, public transport may run out of workers...Government inaction has become shocking. 

TMN; In Japan july 31 Of the 102 CoViD deaths that day 67 were (recent) reinfections. South Korea had 21 deaths that day-18 CoViD-re-infections...same pattern around the globe...only reporting it is another issue...

Maybe also [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/origins/research-evidence-of-sars-cov-2-before-wuhan-outbreak-in-2019/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/origins/research-evidence-of-sars-cov-2-before-wuhan-outbreak-in-2019/ ;

Research: Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 before Wuhan outbreak in 2019

“In the USA, SARS-CoV-2 reactive antibodies were detected in over 100 blood samples collected in several different states in early December 2019.

In Brazil, environmental surveillance monitoring demonstrated early SARS-CoV-2 community spread at the end of November 2019 by detecting viral RNA in wastewater.

A study performed in the UK identified a few blood donors in May 2019 whose sera presented SARS-CoV-2 S-reactive antibodies associated with a presumed current immune response.

In France, antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 were found in serum samples collected in November 2019, and viral RNA was detected in December 2019 in a respiratory sample from a patient hospitalised for haemoptysis.”

BMJ research piece: Waiting for the truth: is reluctance in accepting an early origin hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 delaying our understanding of viral emergence?

 

Previous posts on the origins of SARS-CoV-2:

Sars-CoV-2 in Angola in September 2019

Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 in Lombardy, September 2019

SARS-CoV-2 in Barcelona wastewater March 2019

SARS-CoV-2 in Brescia, Italy, August 2020

SARS-CoV-2 in France, December 2019

SARS-CoV-2 variant found in Antarctic soil samples from 2018-2019

Estimating the pandemic start date

DJ, Corona-virusses have been around very likely millions of years-older then humans...(as far as I understand). SARS-2 may have been spreading longer then since the end of 2019. In that way may have had more variants/subtypes then the "Wuhan"-variant...If there were more (sub)variants at the start-spread from more then one location-it may have been harder to get a grip on it from the start...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 2,

A look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ...even with limited testing/reporting...

July 31-Japan reporting 212,960 new cases, South Korea 73,589...(worldwide last 2 days just over 600,000 cases did get reported...some countries simply stopped testing/reporting...).

August 1 -Japan 196,812 new cases, Germany 103,561...(Germany no longer reporting in the weekend is part of that high number). 

CoViD-deaths still based on tested CoViD cases dying within 4 weeks after testing positive...[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps excess deaths may give better info...but also includes deaths due to climate collapse...(heatwaves, flooding etc.). 

For the UK [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time may give a more realistic picture...Good to see UK cases going down (may also give some indications on monkeypox in the UK). 








PS Here also Muller plot of lineage frequencies in India (raw GISAID data). BA.2.75 definitely outcompeting both regular BA.2 and BA.5 there...

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues with more mutations, possibly new (sub)variants....

DJ-I am describing a tsunami of CoViD subvariants...very likely undermining human protection against all kinds of other diseases. Monkeypox very likely only the first to start massive spread...developing with subvariants of monkeypox. Other diseases will follow...

[url]https://www.innereastreview.com.au/story/7840744/austria-in-shock-over-death-of-covid-gp/?cs=7607[/url] or https://www.innereastreview.com.au/story/7840744/austria-in-shock-over-death-of-covid-gp/?cs=7607

Austrian political leaders have expressed shock over the death of a doctor who closed her practice after she reported receiving death threats from opponents of COVID-19 restrictions and vaccines.

The body of Dr Lisa-Maria Kellermayr, a general practitioner who had publicly stressed the effectiveness of vaccination, was found at her practice office in a rural area of northern Austria on Friday, Austrian media said.


DJ I think it is good to have different opinions...nobody has all the wisdom...But disagreeing with terror is totally unacceptable...It did most likely do also damage this forum...

Of course people losing their income because of pandemic restrictions need to know what their perspectives are...People need not only an income but also the idea of a liveable future...

My view-nothing more-just an opinion-is the only way out of this healthcrisis is via Non Pharma Interventions...masks, work/study from home, major travel restrictions...NO mass meetings...for years. And YES that are very hard choices...However refusing to take those steps may push us further into a health-collapse we will not survive...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, 

"Global NATO" has put itself in a multi-front war with Russia-Iran-China. Somehow "the west" is run by fools...Biden (79) may have old age and CoViD as an excuse (with symptoms) for NOT stopping  pelosi (82) going to Taiwan...causing China to "speed up unification" (by military means). But Liz Truss-the soon to be next UK PM does not have age/CoViD as an excuse for pushing for a "neo-colonial" global NATO...NOT welcomed by most non-western countries...(The Jordan king wanted to think about it...Maybe the king of Morocco may have some interests..."OPEC+ countries" now position themselves on the Russia/Iran lines...

I expect-for trade reasons-the EU, Australia, New Zealand do not have much other options...South Korea will "seek neutrality" to avoid war...I fear Japan may find itself being pulled in a Taiwan-war...fighting Russia AND China...facing major economic destruction...

Like the pandemic these wars could and should have been avoided....It is total insanity ! 

People in Europe are told to limit showers, electrics...while air-travel is getting on pre-pandemic levels AND the CoViD-pandemic did get record high summer levels...both in cases and hospital cases...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Global cases-with limited testing/reporting ;833,966 2,038 CoViD deaths reported..(but definition may still be within 4 weeks after positive test...Testing itself missing more cases...). 

A top 3 for cases (august 2);

-1. Japan 167,678 with 109 deaths

-2. South Korea 111,700 16 deaths reported ????

-3. Germany 87,681, 210 deaths...

US had 363 deaths reported in worldometers, Brazil 271...the German 210 puts it on #3...

Of course lots of other sources then worldometers provide other numbers...Worldometers at best can give an indication...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table cases global -15%, deaths -13%...

Japan cases +27%, deaths +128%...Asia the only region with both cases (+4%) and deaths (+18%) increasing...Oceania deaths +37%...Australia and New Zealand seem to be hit hard in what is there a winterwave...

-Monkeypox [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory 25,480 confirmed cases-so far- and 6 deaths-so far...No doubt will further see increases...

🔴Preprint on the A.2 cluster of #Monkeypox Genomes is now online.   1�£Lineage A.2 is distinctly different from the predominant lineage B.1 linked to the 2022 outbreak 2�£Suggest an early & cryptic spread of the virus across multiple geographies

DJ...as expected monkeypox developing its own subvariants....[url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.30.502168v1[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.30.502168v1 ;

Early in 2022, a large number of cases of the disease were reported from Europe and other countries in patients having no history of travel to regions where monkeypox is endemic. Amid a rise in cases, the availability of genome sequences of monkeypox virus isolates in the public domain provides an opportunity to understand the transmission and evolution of the virus. Here, we describe a distinct phylogenetic cluster of monkeypox virus (lineage A.2) using genome sequences available on GISAID. Lineage A.2 currently encompasses 9 genome sequences from 6 viral isolates collected from 3 countries and is distinctly different from the predominant lineage B.1 which is linked to the large European outbreak.

So you now have A.2 monkeypox, B.1 monkeypox and lots of a/mild/pre-symptomatic spread...Vaccines introduced resulting in newer variant-selection...

I think the main reason we see "limited" increases in CoViD summer-wave deaths so far may have been vaccine related...But that may be "short term gains" if you do not STOP THE SPREAD !!!!!

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-italian-and-american-study-claims-that-sars-cov-2-has-evolved-to-withstand-higher-temperatures[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-italian-and-american-study-claims-that-sars-cov-2-has-evolved-to-withstand-higher-temperatures  link to [url]https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1907627/v1[/url] or https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1907627/v1 ;

Background: Since SARS-CoV-2 has undergone a considerable genetic evolution over time, we investigated its infectivity in the province of Verona (Italy), during the month of July of the first three pandemic years (i.e., 2020, 2021 and 2022).

Methods: The daily number of new COVID-19 diagnoses in the province of Verona between July 1-27 of the years 2020, 2021 and 2022 was retrieved from the database of the Regional Healthcare Service, whilst the mean daily air temperature during the same period in the same area was downloaded from an official Italian meteorological website.

Results: The mean July air temperature in Verona was 24±2°C in 2020, 25±2°C in 2021 and 28±2°C in 2022. The daily number of new COVID-19 diagnoses in the province of Verona increased from 2.5±5.7 in July 2020, to 106.0±71.8 in July 2021, up to 1287.4±509.9 in July 2022. The number of new COVID-19 diagnoses made in the province of Verona in July 2022 has increased by 519- and 12-fold in 2022 compared to the same month of the previous two years, despite the fact that the mean air temperature also notably increased by 18% and 15% compared to the years 2020 and 2021, respectively.

Conclusion: The results of this analysis suggest that the strong evolutive pressure placed on SARS-CoV-2 over time may have fostered the accumulation of mutations that have contributed to evolve and adapt the virus to circulate even at high temperatures, thus calling for reinforcing preventive measures and healthcare preparedness even during the warmest periods of the year.

DJ...may I call this "pseudo-science"? Most of CoViD cases may have been in countries like India, Brazil, Africa...Season-effects had to do with people going outside in the summer months. It may be the virus also did change...but part of the story is also social behavior...July 2022 may have been to warm in Verona for outdoor activities...

The TMN article does mention CoViD-virus may spread/survive longer on all kind of surfaces...Such a finding could be more relevant ! CoViD, Monkeypox etc. via mail would need more measures (UV-C ?)...

The US has high monkeypox and CoViD-numbers...








#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 25.51% BA.5.2.1 11.77% BA.5.1 9.75% BA.5.5 9.22% BA.5.2 5.90% BA.5 5.85% BA.4.1 5.44% BA.2.12.1 5.30% BA.5.6 3.97% BA.4.6 3.49% BA.4   Tracker: http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7 #OmicronUpdates 08/02/22 

link [url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1554669043386384384/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1554669043386384384/photo/1 DJ...In the US BA.2.75 now 0,15%, BA.2.76 0,13% (BA.2.74 still only 0,05%)...may indicate BA.2.75 /76 is increasing in the US...

[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time reported CoVid symptoms going down in the UK still...

[url]https://nextstrain.org/monkeypox/hmpxv1[/url] or https://nextstrain.org/monkeypox/hmpxv1 Monkeypox sequencing...now FIVE !!! subtypes; A.1, A.1.1, A.2, BA.1and hMPXV-1A....

⚠️WORRISOME TRANSMISSION—We need to get sober on how & why #monkeypox is tricky to contain: thread🧵below. Many reasons outlined by DHS report: 📌MPXV is “very stable in environment”—for “days/weeks” 📌Human asymptomatic contagiousness documented *before visible rash* 🧵More—

-

9) this will not end well. There are those who can see around corners, and those who cannot. Don’t be the latter. Acting late is not better than never. Act fast and furious — furious precautionary action is the only thing can save us from even worse outcomes.

DJ...I think it is incorrect to call the strategy in pandemics "mistakes"...the bad-horror-part of the story is the strategy is going for max-profit...Public health is NOT #1 ! The western political elite is serving greed...genocide by pandemic for profits....as a choice !

End for today...stay safe & sane...I may write more-most likely-on the developing US-China war on Taiwan...later...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, 

I think China is preparing for military action against Taiwan...maybe-best scenario-only "take over" some islands now under Taiwan-rule close to the China mainland. Russia preparing a major offensive most likely meant to "finish" Ukraine before winter comes...(rest at nuclear war/latest news section). 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table with major under reporting/lack of testing as a rule...still had 915,196 new cases, 2.324 deaths for august 3. 

-Japan 195,801 new cases/125 deaths

-South Korea 119,866 new cases/26 deaths reported

-US 100,653 new cases/431 deaths

...statistics at best may give some indication on the CoViD pandemic. Real number of new CoViD cases will be in the millions per day...excess deaths (very) high in lots of countries

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/02/monkeypox-cases-netherlands-rise-925[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/02/monkeypox-cases-netherlands-rise-925 ;

“Anyone can get monkeypox, and infections occur in all age categories,” the RIVM said. The virus spreads through intimate contact. In the current outbreak in the Netherlands, most of the infections so far have been among men who have sex with other men. “The highest risk of infection is among men who frequently have sex with multiple partners.”


People who test positive for monkeypox in the Netherlands have to isolate at home, with no physical contact with anyone else. They can leave isolation after all their symptoms have disappeared and all the scabs from the rash have fallen off.

Last week, the Netherlands started a preventive vaccination campaign among people who are at most risk of getting the virus.

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory 

DJ-global monkeypox reported deaths still at 6...most likely both cases and deaths under reported...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/diptheria/diptheria-first-case-in-switzerland-for-40-years/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/diptheria/diptheria-first-case-in-switzerland-for-40-years/

Several people have been infected with diphtheria at a centre for asylum seekers – the first known cases of the bacterial infection in Switzerland in nearly 40 years.

Up to eight people living in a centre in the capital, Bern, contracted the disease but had no difficulties breathing, a spokesman for the State Secretariat for Migration said on Tuesday.

The infected group of people were put in isolation and more than 170 other asylum seekers, notably unaccompanied minors, are in quarantine at the centre.

Diphtheria rarely occurs in Western Europe, where children for decades have been vaccinated against the highly contagious infection of the nose and throat.

Swissinfo.ch report

see also; 

Two children diagnosed with first cases of diphtheria in New South Wales, Australia, this century

A toddler is in intensive care and a second child has been hospitalised after contracting the first cases of diphtheria of the throat in New South Wales this century.

The North Coast Public Health Unit confirmed the case in a two-year-old child in northern NSW on July 2nd 2022. On Sunday, a six-year-old described as a “close family contact” was also confirmed to have the infection.

Guardian report, July 3rd 2022

DJ, (Chronic/long) CoViD may result in immunity problems...So ANY infectious disease is now a major risk !

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/preprint-three-types-of-long-covid-each-with-its-set-of-symptoms/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/preprint-three-types-of-long-covid-each-with-its-set-of-symptoms/ ;

King’s College research shows at least three distinct ‘types’ of long covid for people experiencing symptoms for 12 weeks or more.

People with long covid symptoms for 12 weeks or more fell into three main groups based on the types of symptoms they were experiencing.

-1. The largest group was characterised by a cluster of neurological symptoms such as fatigue, brain-fog and headache and was the most common subtype among alpha and delta variants.

-2. A second group experienced respiratory symptoms including chest pain and severe shortness of breath, which could point to lung damage. This was the largest cluster in the wild-type period when the population was unvaccinated.

-3. Finally there were some people who experienced a diverse range of symptoms including heart palpitations, muscle ache and pain, and changes in skin and hair.

“These data show clearly that post COVID syndrome is not just one condition, but appears to have at several subtypes. Our findings matched with people’s experience living with long COVID. Understanding the root causes of these subtypes may help in finding treatment strategies. Moreover these data emphasise the need for Long-COVID services to incorporate a personalised approach sensitive to the issues of each individual.”

Kings College, London, Press release

Preprint: Profiling post-COVID syndrome across different variants of SARS-CoV-2

DJ-notice immunity is NOT mentioned !-I prefer the name "chronic CoViD"...it soon me be the most seen form...outcome of "acute" CoViD. A lot of people may recover from CoViD (my impression; vaccines may have limited number of people dying from CoViD-but "unwise" vaccine strategy-not stopping the spread-made new variants of CoVid much better in evading immunity...)...still thousends of people die each day from CoViD/CoViD complications...

DJ-To keep it readable end of part 1...reactions (also on the way I cut the story up in parts, the issues I include) more then welcome...I am -again- NOT an expert...just trying to form an opinion...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 03 2022 at 11:41pm

part 2...

Maybe a few even harder, worse info...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-german-scientist-warn-of-potential-recombinant-sars-cov-2-and-bovine-coronavirus-emerging-after-finding-cattle-contracting-sars-cov-2[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-german-scientist-warn-of-potential-recombinant-sars-cov-2-and-bovine-coronavirus-emerging-after-finding-cattle-contracting-sars-cov-2 ;

Basic story; 11 out of 1.000 cow samples were tested in and tested positive for SARS-2; Germany late 2021/early 2022...NO signs yet of [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_coronavirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bovine_coronavirus in those samples...

 Infection causes calf enteritis and contributes to the enzootic pneumonia complex in calves. It can also cause winter dysentery in adult cattle. It can infect both domestic and wild ruminants and has a worldwide distribution. Transmission is horizontal, via oro-fecal or respiratory routes

-

BCoV has 95% similarity with human coronavirus OC43 and 93% to porcine hemagglutinating encephalomyelitis virus. According to a 2006 study,[8] those three strains may have diverged during the 19th century, while all circulating BCoV lineages had a most recent common ancestor around 1940s, with all earlier bovine lineages extinct.

An earlier article by the same authors compared BCoV and HCoV-OC43, and several methods yielded most probable divergence dates around 1890, leading authors to speculate that an introduction of the former strain to the human population might have caused the 1889–1890 flu pandemic.[9]

DJ...Again-CoViD spread in animals is a very real and very major risk !!! The 11-out of-100 German finding translates to 1,1% of samples. 

[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/06/articles/animals/other-animals/sars-cov-2-in-cattle-take-a-deep-breath-and-relax/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/06/articles/animals/other-animals/sars-cov-2-in-cattle-take-a-deep-breath-and-relax/ ;

Headline writers are probably going to screw up my day tomorrow by sensationalizing this, but a new paper in the journal Animals (Fiorito et al. 2022) describes SARS-CoV-2 infection in cattle in Italy. (It’s an MDPI journal, and I take anything published there with a big grain of salt given their low standards, but this one seems ok). It’s also similar to a pre-print from Germany abobut SARS-CoV-2 in cattle that we’ve known about for a while.

Why do I say “take a deep breath and relax”?

I’ve talked about the need to consider spillback of SARS-CoV-2 into animals since 2020. However, there are different concerns in different situations. Livestock raise some big concerns because there are a lot of them, they live in large groups in close proximity to people, and we have lots of contact with food products from them (f not the animals themselves).

We always need to consider what the results of surveillance testing really mean. Data are great, but they need to be appropriately incorporated into our understanding of a given disease and what risks might be present (or not).  So, let’s look at what this study tells us.

It’s a nice but small study of cattle from a farm where 13 of 20 workers had diagnosed or suspected COVID-19 – a great situations in which to do animal surveillance since there’s a clear risk of exposure of the animals.

The take home message:

Cattle are one of many species that SARS-CoV-2 seems to be able to infect.  The odds of it being relevant for cattle (or for infection of cattle to be relevant to public health) are low, but it’s worth further study.

DJ also includes the link [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.17.476608v1[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.17.476608v1 TMN may be going for an already well known study (sensationalism ?). YES there are risks ...the longer the virus can spread the bigger the chance of all kinds of "new CoViD" animal-recombinations...But again the TMN story does NOT fit its title...the cows did NOT seem to have the bovine corona-virus, only tested positive for SARS-2...meaning they did catch the virus-did however NOT get ill, limited spread for a short time...

I think it is a growing risk...a ticking time-bomb...howeven NOT YET exploded!

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-study-finds-that-cancer-causing-genes-are-upregulated-in-sars-cov-2-infected-individuals[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-study-finds-that-cancer-causing-genes-are-upregulated-in-sars-cov-2-infected-individuals ; DJ-There has been links between virus infections and cancers...However "cancer still is not seen as an infectious disease"...CoViD may play a role in increasing the cancer-statistics...further statistics will provide more info on that...

(DJ-But I do think CoViD may result in more cancer cases...how much, how fast, types of cancer we may still need to find out. The point is trying NOT to catch CoViD ! CoViD infection does-in most cases-NOT seem to offer (enough) protection against new CoViD-infections. A bit like CoViD-cold infections NOT providing immunity against the cold...). 

-US;








U.S. COVID update: - New cases: 201,079 - Average: 132,922 (-3,843) - States reporting: 33/50 - In hospital: 43,752 (+678) - In ICU: 4,950 (+28) - New deaths: 978 - Average: 477 (+37)

DJ...worldometers had 100,653 new US cases and 431 US CoViD deaths...much lower then the BNO number...with the BNO number most likely being more realistic...US also has 6,617 monkeypox cases out of a global 26,152 reported/tested cases. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory 








#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 26.12% BA.5.2.1 12.03% BA.5.1 9.08% BA.5.5 9.04% BA.5.2 5.95% BA.5 5.73% BA.5.6 5.55% BA.4.1 5.17% BA.2.12.1 4.16% BA.4.6 3.65% BA.4   Tracker: http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7 #OmicronUpdates 08/03/22 

link; [url]https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard[/url] or https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard ; BA.2.75 now at 0,16% of US cases, BA.2.76 at 0,11%, BA.2.74 sticking at 0,05%...DJ Given the high speed growth of BA.2.75/76 -the % of the last 15 days-the US may be at the start of another major wave of CoViD ! Schools/workplaces reopening within a month will worsen this wave further...

DJ To put the US numbers in international context one has to look at "cases per million" , number of tests etc. I think the US is moving into a major healthcrisis...lots of other countries may-cases per million-be doing worse...

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports now has FOUR "Omicron" subgroups; 

1. B.1.1.529 (BA.1) with 270 subvariants...

2. BA.2 with 120 subvariants...

3. BA.5 with 42 subvariants

4. BA.2.75 with so far only BA.2.75 (I think I disd see BA.2.75.1 ???? [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues maybe only a suggestion ? Google has BA.2.75.1 in Korean ?)

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2.75&loc&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2.75&loc&selected showing the countries that have detected BA.2.75 cases so far...India has 370, Singapore 20, US 31...

Most countries do no longer have government restrictions limiting spread...(insanity rules !) ...so another limiting factor has to be NPI at individual levels...Will people limit contacts, use masks...

DJ-Pandemic outlook simply is BAD !!! Public support-due to miscommunication-government faillure-for NPI is gone...it may take "a lot of suffering" to see public support for restrictions increase...Omicron now has over 433 sub-variants, CoViD is widespread also in non-human hosts...monkeypox no doubt going the same way...with decrease of immunity defenses and north part of the globe moving towards winter, H5 Avian-flu now at pandemic level in birds.....outlook is simply very "poor"...

International cooperation is urgently needed to limit climate and health disasters, water/food-crises...but international cooperation is "off"..

End of part 2...maybe later on part 3...(will be another very warm 30C/85F+ day here in NL...). 

Stay safe & sane !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 04 2022 at 4:08am

DJ, (part 3 ?)

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pelosi-departs-taiwan-after-president-tsai-bestowed-highest-medal-china-preps-largest[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pelosi-departs-taiwan-after-president-tsai-bestowed-highest-medal-china-preps-largest

Now that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is safely in Seoul, South Korea - where neither President Yoon Suk-yeol nor the country's foreign minister will meet with her - as the former is conveniently on "vacation" and the latter is in nearby Cambodia - all that she's offered thus far as an "explanation" for soaring regional tensions, and with Taiwan now finding itself in the direct crosshairs of a nuclear-armed superpower is that people are angry that she went to Taiwan because she's a woman.

Yes, she actually said on Wednesday morning while standing alongside Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen: "They didn’t say anything when the men came."

DJ....maybe this utter stupidity is reflecting the level of "western leadership" also in the pandemic.....Again this pandemic is political...."leaders" going for profit above public health....So far they get away with their stupidity. What I find most shocking is how widespread that stupidity seems to be in most "western" countries...








Interestingly, the biggest let-it-rip countries lagging the most in the return to pre-pandemic workplace mobility. Inverse correlation?

and; 






Liz Ann Sonders

@LizAnnSonders
 · 
Workplace mobility has improved throughout world at varying rates; U.S. and U.K. are lagging behind Japan and Australia ⁦@DataArbor⁩ ⁦@Google

DJ [url]https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1555126087994294273/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1555126087994294273/photo/1 

For NL [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/02/staff-shortages-increasing-sick-leave-company-doctors[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/02/staff-shortages-increasing-sick-leave-company-doctors ;

Widespread staff shortages lead to higher absenteeism as businesses try to do the same or more work with fewer people, and overworked employees are pushed to burnout. The professional association of company doctors NVAB and health and safety services said this to BNR.

“Company doctors see the consequences of staff shortages and high work pressure daily,” Boyd Thijssens of NVAB said to the broadcaster. “People who always functioned well fall over or are in danger of falling over.”

According to Thijssens, one problem is that it takes too long before people go to the company doctor with their mental health complaints. “That only happens after they've fallen over, but then they are already sick,” he said. “People don’t know that the company doctor is there even if they aren’t sick yet.” People often also have a wrong image of the company doctor. “They think he’s checking if they’re really sick. But he wants to prevent you from getting sick.”

Health and safety service Arbo Unie told BNR that people’s workload is increasing due to the shortages in the labor market. And that is causing people to stay home sick more often and for longer. ArboNed noticed a “slight increase in psychological absenteeism” and worries that it will continue to rise.

ArboNed urged employers to encourage working from home, so employees have to travel less and can organize their own time. “Also, take a critical look at the work that really needs to be done now and postpone what can be done later to prevent unnecessary psychological and physical overload,” the service said to BNR

DJ, Less people doing more of the work and still NO legal right to work from home...even when it would be wiser...

Inflation [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/04/dutch-inflation-10-first-time-since-1975[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/04/dutch-inflation-10-first-time-since-1975 ;

Inflation in the Netherlands climbed above 10 percent for the first time since 1975, Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reported based on its own calculation method.

According to the stats office, consumer goods and services were 10.3 percent more expensive in July than in the same month last year. In June, inflation was still 8.6 percent. The increase was mainly because energy prices have recently skyrocketed and house rents increased more.


Last week, CBS already reported inflation based on the European harmonized method. The figures showed that inflation had clearly risen after a few months of decline, amounting to 11.6 percent in July. In that calculation, housing costs, like rents, are not included.

This while rents are pushing inflation even higher. This is because the rents on regulated leases were not allowed to increase on July 1 last year. Furthermore, the maximum rent increase for a private sector home is higher this year than last year. All this led to housing rents rising by 3 percent last month compared to 0.8 percent a year ago.

Energy prices have been rising rapidly in the Netherlands for some time, especially since the war in Ukraine. This is due to the increased uncertainty about the gas supply from Russia. In July, energy was up to 108 percent more expensive on an annual basis. This means that the plus here was much stronger than the 84 percent in June. And despite the fact that the Cabinet temporarily reduced the VAT on energy from 21 to 9 percent as of last month.

Consumers also saw prices in the supermarkets rise faster. Foods were 12 percent more expensive than a year ago. In particular, products containing grain, dairy products, and ice creams rose relatively sharply in price. Package holidays also became clearly more expensive, and people had to spend more on banking services.

According to CBS, fuel was slightly cheaper in July than in June. A liter of Euro 95 cost an average of 2.21 euros last month. A month earlier it was 2.35 euros

is another growing problem....Healthcare costs are expected to increase further..."International developments" (=US needless provocation of China) will further increase inflation, stress...

Important note on the new  #longcovid report! It mentions that ~1M ppl may be out of work due to LC. That is based on a  report I wrote 8 months ago. I am currently updating the figures — now that we have more data, we know it’s actually 2-4M+

and 








⚡#SANYA CITY, HAINAN PROVINCE REPORTS 49 COVID-19 CASES FROM 0:00 TO 12:00 ON AUG. 4.-CCTV *Sanya is known as the Hawaii of China

DJ, the economic costs of this pandemic are going up....

📍New—REPRODUCTIVE NUMBER for #monkeypox—US has the highest R(e) of all non-endemic countries—with an R=1.55 (vs 1.29 average). This is an underestimate due to low #MPXV testing. Estimated R of 1.8-2.5 if exclude recent 🇩🇪🇪🇸🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 mitigations. This is not low!

link; [url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.26.22278042v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.26.22278042v1 

DJ...If the R0 of "MPX" would be 2,5 (in the US) it may soon become even worse then CoViD ????








BA.2.75 + Spike D574V is now designated as BA.2.75.1 Currently in circulation in  #India#Canada#Germany#Japan and #Denmark 

 I mentioned BA.2.75.1 this morning...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/856[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/856 already 2 weeks old still not included in [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports (only has BA.2.75...not yet BA.2.75.1...by now there will be more subvariants of BA.2.75...). 










BA.2.75 + mutations of interest Emerging: Spike positions -574, 954 ORF1ab: 6107

link; [url]https://nextstrain.org/fetch/genome.ucsc.edu/trash/ct/singleSubtreeAuspice_genome_e203_a8b7d0.json?branchLabel=aa%20mutations&c=gt-S_954&label=nuc%20mutations:C3927T,A12444G,C22033A,G23040A,A26275G[/url] or https://nextstrain.org/fetch/genome.ucsc.edu/trash/ct/singleSubtreeAuspice_genome_e203_a8b7d0.json?branchLabel=aa%20mutations&c=gt-S_954&label=nuc%20mutations:C3927T,A12444G,C22033A,G23040A,A26275G ....

                    STOP THE SPREAD !!!!!

DJ, I simply fail to understand WHY CDC, WHO etc keep failing to understand the need to STOP THE SPREAD !!!! If you even want to begin with limiting this healthcrisis....

There is NO herdimmunity for CoViD, very likely the (several forms of) monkeypox (MPX) develop in the same direction...risks for other diseases seem to be increasing with CoViD very likely also spreading more in non-human hosts....The present healthcrisis IS already major, global....Not acting to limit the spread only worsening the global healthcrisis...








We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 04 2022 at 10:24pm

DJ, 

A new Dutch study under 13,000 people did find 12,7% 1-in-8 CoViD patients did develop chronic/long CoViD. Study would be published in the lancet. People did give medical stories for several years-so a long time study. (DJ-I did not find much of a link...[url]https://www.thelancet.com/[/url] or https://www.thelancet.com/ would publish it today. NL link [url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/gezond/een-op-de-acht-coronapatienten-heeft-long-covid-mijn-leven-zoals-het-was-is-weg~a266e807/[/url] or https://www.gelderlander.nl/gezond/een-op-de-acht-coronapatienten-heeft-long-covid-mijn-leven-zoals-het-was-is-weg~a266e807/).

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/us-long-covid-action-plan-launched/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/us-long-covid-action-plan-launched/ ;

A new research and action plan for long Covid has been launched by the Biden administration.

“Long COVID can affect nearly every organ system and hinder an individual’s ability to work, attend school, participate in community life, and engage in normal everyday activities.

Long COVID can affect people regardless of race, age, gender, or baseline health status. It is more common in people with severe COVID-19 who require hospitalization or intensive care, individuals with underlying health conditions, unvaccinated individuals, and people affected by health disparities.

A new CDC study reports that at least 30 days after having COVID-19, one in five COVID-19 survivors aged 18–64 years and one in four survivors aged 65 years or older have a health condition that might be related to their previous COVID-19 illness. People who had previous COVID illness had twice the risk for developing pulmonary embolism or respiratory conditions.”

DJ...So the US has statistics 1-in-5 (20%) for 18-64 y/o and 1-in-4 for 65+, 25%...but definition of Long/chronic CoViD may be somewhat different...If you use as a basic number the close to 600 million confirmed CoViD cases worldwide 20% of them would mean 120 million long/chronic CoViD cases...

Since the 600 million CoViD cases is an underestimate the number of chronic CoViD worldwide will be higher...also (again) [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/preprint-three-types-of-long-covid-each-with-its-set-of-symptoms/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/preprint-three-types-of-long-covid-each-with-its-set-of-symptoms/ ;

People with long covid symptoms for 12 weeks or more fell into three main groups based on the types of symptoms they were experiencing.

-1. The largest group was characterised by a cluster of neurological symptoms such as fatigue, brain-fog and headache and was the most common subtype among alpha and delta variants.

-2. A second group experienced respiratory symptoms including chest pain and severe shortness of breath, which could point to lung damage. This was the largest cluster in the wild-type period when the population was unvaccinated.

-3. Finally there were some people who experienced a diverse range of symptoms including heart palpitations, muscle ache and pain, and changes in skin and hair.

“These data show clearly that post COVID syndrome is not just one condition, but appears to have at several subtypes. Our findings matched with people’s experience living with long COVID.

DJ So Long CoViD is not yet well defined. The US number looks at symptoms after 30 days, the UK study takes 12 weeks after a positive test. But in both cases-and the NL study 1-in-8, the number of long/chronic CoViD cases is very high...a lot of them may no longer be able to work (full time) for a long time...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/facemasks/preprint-the-efficacy-of-facemasks-in-the-prevention-of-covid-19/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/facemasks/preprint-the-efficacy-of-facemasks-in-the-prevention-of-covid-19/ ;

The probability of getting COVID-19 for mask wearers was just 7%, the probability of getting COVID-19 for non-mask wearers was 52%.

The initial review yielded 1732 studies, which were reviewed by three study team members. Sixty-one full text studies were found to meet entry criteria, and 13 studies yielded data that was used in the final analysis.

In all, 243 subjects were infected with COVID-19, of whom 97 had been wearing masks and 146 had not. The probability of getting COVID-19 for mask wearers was 7% (97/1463, p=0.002), for non-mask wearers, probability was 52% (158/303, p=0.94). The Relative Risk of getting COVID-19 for mask wearers was 0.13 (95% CI: 0.10-0.16).

Based on these results, we determined that across healthcare and community settings, those who wore masks were less likely to contact COVID-19.

Preprint: The Efficacy of Facemasks in the Prevention of COVID-19: A Systematic Review

 

** This is yet another study that shows that facemasks provide better protection against Covid infection than vaccination. As the Covid vaccines continue to wane, masking may be the only strong mitigation left to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infections in the near future. **

DJ....Non Pharma Interventions do limit both spread and disease...Again...why do we offer free air travel for diseases ? The total pandemic-strategy is a total disaster...STOP THE SPREAD or forget it !

Masks, limiting social contacts, avoid crowds, work/study from home as much as possible all seem to be effective...One could/may claim vaccines limited severe disease/deaths...but the vaccinations without NPI made matters worse, bring new variants even better in evading immunity...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/america/usa/joe-biden-still-testing-positive-for-covid-after-two-weeks/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/america/usa/joe-biden-still-testing-positive-for-covid-after-two-weeks/  Joe Biden was first diagnosed with Covid-19 on 21st July 2022

DJ Only minor symptoms...(???)

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/usa-government-to-declare-monkeypox-a-public-health-emergency/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/usa-government-to-declare-monkeypox-a-public-health-emergency/

Sadly, the declaration has comes too late to have much of an impact on the spread of the disease across America. That ship has already sailed.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory US monkeypox cases now 7.102 out of a global tested/reported 27,125...Spain has 4,869 cases, NL 957...so if you look at "cases per million" the US is not "the worst" place...Lots of countries/cases NOT reported...

If you deny a problem it only gets worse...for that matter testing/reporting at least is "some action"...

A recent study published in Nature Medicine found 62 symptoms associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection beyond 12 weeks. Read more about what they found, including risk factors for developing Long Covid.

link; [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01909-w[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01909-w 

DJ, Long/chronic CoViD will be the most widespread form of CoViD by now...NOT the acute infection but longer lasting damage, possibly the virus-variant hiding in an organ...able to show up later...

Note: Monkeypox is different from Covid Easier to control due to no presymptomatic infection (before rash yes, before early symptoms not as far as we know). So monitoring can replace quarantine/lockdown. Harder because of the long term contamination of fabrics and surfaces. 4

DJ...MPX/Monkeypox has an incubation time of up to 21 days, very likely early viral spread....and "just started"...I think the potential risks of MPX may be far worse then CoViD-risks...A combination of both soon may show to kill a lot of people...AGAIN !!!! S T O P   T H E   S P R E A D   !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!








Amazing how people call  a “scaremonger” given the data on decreasing life expectancy since the pandemic hit (and this is just for 2020). https://pbs.org/newshour/amp/health/covid-19-has-already-cut-u-s-life-expectancy-by-a-year-for-black-americans-its-worse


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How many times has . sounded the alarm months in advance? How many times has he been ignored? How many times has he nailed his data driven content?  This man should be working at the highest level of disease control.

DJ, lots of good experts "fall back" on twitter...somehow the "dominant thinking" simply keeps ignoring the very major risks...We are on our way to the worst healthcrisis humanity did see most likely in HUNDREDS !!!! of years !!! The 6,5 "official" CoViD deaths - real number very likely at least +20 million ! (when you look at excess deaths) may be "only the start"...

Like climate change this pandemic seems to be used as a way for increasing profits...insanity rules !

Coffee ! Stay safe & sane !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 05 2022 at 11:23pm

DJ, 

August 6-2022...my impression is CoViD may have been spreading almost three years...I am NOT an expert...limited history background...

In my view the pandemics main problem is "political"...."saving the economy is destroying that economy"...stupid rules !

A link with western foreign policy; China breaking as good as all communication with the US, Russian artillery killing over a thousend Ukraine military per day...inflation in most western countries at levels seen over 50 years ago...10%+ only going up....

In Israel people in bomb-shelters after another murder by the IDF of a Palestine leader in Gaza-resulting in hundreds of missiles all the way up to Tel Aviv...

Talks could have prevented these disasters, "wisdom" ...but somehow the "western politics" only going for PR-bla bla...Here in NL farmers giving up on the NL government...even a neo-liberal negotiator now getting the point "trust in government is gone"...

Most western democracies seem to be run by an elite out of touch with both the voters and reality...making democracy a "democrazy"...only the 0,1% seem to benefit...

-Pandemic;

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-authorities-warn-that-new-york-could-be-in-the-initial-stages-of-a-silent-polio-outbreak-with-hundreds-possibly-already-infected[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-authorities-warn-that-new-york-could-be-in-the-initial-stages-of-a-silent-polio-outbreak-with-hundreds-possibly-already-infected 

DJ...I would like to see further links...[url]https://www.health.ny.gov/press/releases/2022/2022-08-04_polio_detected_nys.htm#:~:text=All%20children%20should%20get%20four,immunized%20should%20receive%203%20doses.[/url] or https://www.health.ny.gov/press/releases/2022/2022-08-04_polio_detected_nys.htm#:~:text=All%20children%20should%20get%20four,immunized%20should%20receive%203%20doses. ...

Albany, N.Y. (August 4, 2022) – The New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH) today updated New Yorkers on the poliovirus in New York State. Following the identification of polio in early June wastewater samples in Rockland County, the virus has now also been detected in wastewater samples from June and July in two geographically different locations in Orange County and July samples from Rockland County.

Sequence analysis by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has found that seven positive samples from both Rockland County (three) and Orange County (four) are genetically linked to the individual case of paralytic polio previously identified in a Rockland County resident. These finding provide further evidence of local—not international—transmission of a polio virus that can cause paralysis and potential community spread, underscoring the urgency of every New York adult and child getting immunized, especially those in the greater New York metropolitan area. NYSDOH will continue its active, ongoing wastewater surveillance efforts in partnership with CDC.

"Based on earlier polio outbreaks, New Yorkers should know that for every one case of paralytic polio observed, there may be hundreds of other people infected," State Health Commissioner Dr. Mary T. Bassett said. "Coupled with the latest wastewater findings, the Department is treating the single case of polio as just the tip of the iceberg of much greater potential spread. As we learn more, what we do know is clear: the danger of polio is present in New York today. We must meet this moment by ensuring that adults, including pregnant people, and young children by 2 months of age are up to date with their immunization – the safe protection against this debilitating virus that every New Yorker needs."

New Yorkers should know that the latest environmental findings do not indicate that the individual identified in Rockland County was the source of the transmission, and case investigation into the origin of the virus is ongoing. NYSDOH continues to work with global, national, and local public health authorities to aggressively assess the spread of the virus and ensure prevention measures, particularly immunization clinics, are in place – as the best way to keep New York polio-free is to maintain high immunity across the population through vaccination.

All New Yorkers who are unvaccinated, including children by 2 months of age, those who are pregnant, and people who have not completed their polio vaccine series previously should get immunized right away. Unvaccinated New Yorkers who live, work, go to school in, or visit Rockland County, Orange County, and the greater New York metropolitan area are at the highest risk of exposure.

So after CoViD, Monkeypox Polio the third disease becoming a problem ? 

[url]https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/australia-flu-season-warning-sign-us-this-year-rcna40123[/url] or https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/australia-flu-season-warning-sign-us-this-year-rcna40123 Australia reporting an early flu-season..the more time the flu-virus can spread the more people catch the flu...Of course Australia-now in winter-also has very high CoViD cases...[url]https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm[/url] or https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm in fact reporting Australian flu-cases now going down...most flu-cases not further sub-typed then A-type flu (so not a B-type)....

DJ "Bird/Avian-flu is an A-type flu...."....The H5 types of bird-flu now in very high numbers -in birds-around the globe...

-Polio seems-for now-to be "regional" problems...Pakistan/Afghanistan (with using live-virus oral vaccines maybe spreading the virus...Other vaccines may have lower risks but may not be available...), very likely (a/mild symptomatic spread) in the New York area with London UK earlier finding some polio-sewage samples....Point is-of course-polio is an infectious disease...

We are a few months away from autumn/winter...climate collapse could bring winter weather in september or october in many places-with summer-like weather following it...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table Of the 862,614 reported new CoViD cases Japan reported 253,392...South Korea had 112,857 cases reported...2,215 CoViD deaths (under)reported for august 5....in these statistics the US reported 400 CoViD deaths BNO may bring much higher US numbers...Brazil 208 deaths, Japan 183, Italy 175...(deaths seen as CoViD-deaths when A. within 4 weeks after a positive CoViD test, B-no other illness/condition is given...So excluding flu, hearthproblems etc...). 

Excess deaths by now may give a better indication on CoViD killing people...vaccines may "limit deaths" ...Long/chronic CoViD now seen as a major problem....in a lot of countries over 1% of the workforce may be unable to do their job...(and that 1% may be "very optimistic"). 

Again "saving the economy" is destroying the economy..."Freedom" means free travel for diseases...Western "politics" unable to learn from their mistakes...

This is NOT a benevolent trend. It's INSIDIOUS. Instead of investing in workplace safety improvements, the business community decided to replace the missing workforce with kids. Poor kids accept lower wages oblivious that they're not being compensated for the risk they're taking.

DJ...there is nothing wrong with working-for-pay...but safety first....Again...governments fail to offer a right to workers to work from home if possible...Employers can tell their workers they do "not like masks" on the workplace...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/facemasks/ffp2-masks-more-effective-at-preventing-covid-infection-than-vaccines/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/facemasks/ffp2-masks-more-effective-at-preventing-covid-infection-than-vaccines/ with masks, shielding, ventilation better in limiting disease...still most governments IMPORT diseases...Total insanity !

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 2,

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-4-6/omicron-ba-4-6-at-4-percent-of-all-us-sequences/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-4-6/omicron-ba-4-6-at-4-percent-of-all-us-sequences/

Omicron BA.4.6, a subvariant of BA.4, has been attracting some media attention over the past few days. The subvariant of BA.4 is prevalent in Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska, making up 10.7% of all local cases in that region.

BA.4 is the quiet half-brother of the BA.5 subvariant which has been rampaging across the globe for the last two months. Now, it looks like BA.4 may have finally found a purpose. 

According to CoVSPectrum, with nearly 3,000 samples, BA.4.6 currently represents just over 4% of sequences nationally in the US, and is seeing steady growth.

BA.4.6 accounts for nearly 5% of sequences in the UK, and around 6% of sequences in Canada. France and Denmark have just over 1% of sequences showing as BA.4.6. The new strain has also been detected in 43 other countries.

-

 Based on past experience, for the next winter wave, Coronaheadsup is expecting a completely different variant to Omicron to appear. We don’t think this subvariant is it

A look at [url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN ;


#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 
25.86% BA.5.2.1 
12.70% BA.5.1 
10.43% BA.5.2 
10.00% BA.5.5 
5.79% BA.5.6 
5.46% BA.4.1 
4.81% BA.5 
4.50% BA.2.12.1 
3.96% BA.4.6 
3.30% BA.4   

DJ link [url]https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard[/url] or https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard has BA.2.75 now at 0,18% of sequenced US samples, BA.2.76 at 0,14%...BA.2.74 at 0,03%...looks like BA.2.75/76 is increasing in the US....

For India; 

#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #India  Top Circulating Lineages (#30DayTrends): 21.30%      BA.2.75 🚀 16.39%      BA.2.76 12.51%       BA.2 10.25%      BA.2.38 8.34%        BA.5.2 5.35%        BA.2.38.1 5.07%        BA.5.2.1 Tracker: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/VariantDashboard_INDIA/VariantDashboard

link [url]https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/VariantDashboard_INDIA/VariantDashboard[/url] or https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/VariantDashboard_INDIA/VariantDashboard BA.2,75/6 are already dominant and further increasing...(with worldometer statistics for India very unreliable/unrealistic do to poor testing). 

Research Data suggest that #BA5 is still low pathogenic compared to ancestral strain but evolved to induce enhanced inflammation when compared to prior #Omicron subvariants.

So...DJ-global realistic number of CoViD cases in humans must be in the billions...Over 12 billion vaccines have been used...with most people however still NOT being vaccinated at all...only the "better of" may have had several (booster)vaccines...

Tracking BA.2.75 #SARSCoV2 #lineage over time | #Centaurus  Total Sequence Count: 1650 >> added new sequences from  #California#Texas#NewJersey#Indiana#Arizona#Georgia#Virgina#Minnesota<< #BA275 Tracker: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/TrackingBA_2_75LineageOverTime/BA_2_75 Updated: 8/5/22; 8 PM CST

DJ...If you want to have realism in sequencing you need realism in testing...Only 1,650 BA.2.75 sequences worldwide being detected simply means a lack of testing...so not enough samples to be sequenced...

"The type and frequency of animals coming down with COVID is trying to tell us something about the future of the pandemic. Scientists are on the case" Nice piece by   | Featuring @nyitomar #AnimalCoV database: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/COVID19DASHBOARDANIMALSGLOBAL/AnimalCov-Global  

A further look [url]https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/COVID19DASHBOARDANIMALSGLOBAL/AnimalCov-Global[/url] or https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/COVID19DASHBOARDANIMALSGLOBAL/AnimalCov-Global showing minks did see most CoViD+tests...deer and cats at #2 and #3 in this database...US, DK and NL reporting most animal sequences...(DK and NL had a lot of CoViD in minks...). 

[url]https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/08/05/1114357154/how-many-animal-species-have-caught-covid-first-global-tracker-has-partial-answe[/url] or https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2022/08/05/1114357154/how-many-animal-species-have-caught-covid-first-global-tracker-has-partial-answe 

DJ...problem with these "animal sequences" is that some people (and "politicians/experts") claim "only very limited spread in animals" simply ignoring reality again...Most animals did NOT get tested (or sequenced)...99,9% of the spread in animals is NOT seen !  Sewage may find CoViD-particles...some of it may not be human but from rats, mice...

It is "beyond frustrating" how "experts/politics" twist facts to fit in their insane stories....

We need "a revolution" to get out of these pandemics ? 

End of part 2...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ...

(Some problems getting on this daily update...). 

If "we" want to survive climate collapse, the (linked) unfolding healthcrisis, wars...WE have to change the way we live. At present we are killing ourselves...humans show themselves to be "self destructive"...

In latest news I did post more on [url]https://www.cdc.gov/flu/swineflu/spotlights/first-human-infection-2022.htm[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/flu/swineflu/spotlights/first-human-infection-2022.htm  or [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swine_influenza[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swine_influenza ...

Yesterday I did post there more on the possible spread of Polio...a.o. in New York-US...earlier limited indications London-UK, Jerusalem-Israel/Palestine...

It looks like CoViD getting this widespread...[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-u-s-cdc-reports-first-case-of-human-infection-with-swine-flu-virus-and-warns-more-to-come[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-u-s-cdc-reports-first-case-of-human-infection-with-swine-flu-virus-and-warns-more-to-come claiming over 50% of human population...DJ-Even two billion people is "major" is changing the "immune landscape"...

Monkeypox would not get this big without CoViD undermining immunity...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory (official -underreporting- number of confirmed cases around 30,000...DJ-Real number 10x that number ???).

Denial is NOT a strategy but making matters worse ! 

It is beyond insane we have free-air-travel for all kinds of diseases, mass events...in the middle of a pandemic ! 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table is showing major under reporting...still indicating a global tested/reported of CoViD cases around 800,000-1 million per day...over 2,000 CoViD deaths per day...Real numbers must be much higher...but we act as if that is not a problem...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth#Biology[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exponential_growth#Biology ;

  • The number of microorganisms in a culture will increase exponentially until an essential nutrient is exhausted, so there is no more of that nutrient for more organisms to grow. Typically the first organism splits into two daughter organisms, who then each split to form four, who split to form eight, and so on. Because exponential growth indicates constant growth rate, it is frequently assumed that exponentially growing cells are at a steady-state. However, cells can grow exponentially at a constant rate while remodeling their metabolism and gene expression.[3]
  • A virus (for example COVID-19, or smallpox) typically will spread exponentially at first, if no artificial immunization is available. Each infected person can infect multiple new people.

DJ; translation;

Exponential growth in this pandemic is both widening diseases-so other diseases are now also increasing, and deepening CoViD cases with endless numbers of sub-variants...We most likely will miss 99% of the info...so BA.2.75, BA.5.2.1, BA.4.6 may be major factors...but since testing was given up...sequencing may be unable to get relevant info...Monkeypox by the way also now in more variants...You have three types of Polio, "Swine-Flu" can go "wild"...measles is next ? H5N1, H7N7 ?  We are NOT stopping anything...

If this is "our strategy" ...and we think it has something to do with "freedom" or "saving the economy"...maybe it is time humans leave this planet...we are ruining this place...stupid did win !

If massive CoViD-spread instead of "herd immunity" did open the doors to all kinds of diseases -also in other species-with very likely also CoViD spread/mutations-we are only at the very beginning of the worst health crisis humanity ever did face...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 2,








2nd-generation BA.2 lineages are emerging at an alarming pace in India, & the BA.2.10+ variant discussed in 🧵 below is one of the most striking & potentially concerning. Counting 2 deletions, it has 8 spike mutations on top of BA.2.10. I want to discuss one of them: F486P. 1/16

DJ...it is an illusion mass vaccination will be able to get these pandemics under control...We did have over 12 billion vaccines-still most humans very likely never got vaccinated...A few billion did get 3-6 vaccines...The failing vaccine strategy-not stopping the spread-resulted in more variants better in evading immunity...

So of the 19 possible amino acid mutations at F486, P is #1 for ACE2 binding (well ahead of all others), #5 for RBD expression (very close to the top and #1 among all six observed F486 mutations), and appears to be #2 for evading antibodies. 13/16

Is CoViD  "smarter" then humans ?...Simply working around any defenses (post-infection/vaccination) we think we may have ? 

Replying to 
Will also be interesting to see how the various emerging BA.5 + K444 lineages grow in the coming weeks & months. S:K444 is the biggest remaining RBD escape site for BA.4/5 nAbs. As BA.4/5 immunity builds, their growth advantage could magnify. https://jbloomlab.github.io/SARS2_RBD_Ab_escape_maps/escape-calc/

So...BA.2, BA.4, BA.5 (all still named "Omicron"...in fact three different Variants of Concern...but "we" even fail in giving them new names...) are mutating high speed...








Our school district is not going to have a covid dashboard this year. How do I send my 13yo to school and still keep her disabled and immune compromised sister safe? The CDC walked back mask guidance. Then they decided not to track reinfections…

"Don't look up"...

The polio case in Rockland is genetically linked to virus found in wastewater in Jerusalem and London, according to the Global Polio Laboratory Network. https://msn.com/en-us/health/medical/rockland-polio-strain-matches-virus-samples-in-london-jerusalem/ar-AA10h7LT

So we may expect more Polio cases showing up around the globe ? [url]https://www.gov.uk/government/news/poliovirus-detected-in-sewage-from-north-and-east-london[/url] or https://www.gov.uk/government/news/poliovirus-detected-in-sewage-from-north-and-east-london ...A list of "incidents" may indicate disaster...

"The detection of a VDPV2 suggests it is likely there has been some spread between closely-linked individuals in North and East London and that they are now shedding the type 2 poliovirus strain in their faeces
"The virus has only been detected in sewage samples and no associated cases of paralysis have been reported – but investigations will aim to establish if any community transmission is occurring

Again...most cases of Polio will not result in paralysis...only less then 5%...

New York Health Department says hundreds of people may be infected with polio virus https://cbsnews.com/news/polio-virus-hundreds-of-infections-possible-new-york-health-department/ via 

what I am getting is London may be in the same situation ????

#COVID19 #VariantDashboard - #UnitedStates  TOP lineages (15-DAY TRENDS): 25.48% BA.5.2.1 12.83% BA.5.1 10.79% BA.5.5 10.19% BA.5.2 6.23% BA.5.6 5.50% BA.4.1 4.32% BA.5 4.14% BA.2.12.1 4.12% BA.4.6 3.10% BA.4   Tracker: http://tinyurl.com/mryj4uu7 #OmicronUpdates 08/07/22 

For the US;[url]https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard[/url] or https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard 

BA.2.75 at 0,22% of cases..most likely higher in some urban area's like New York...BA.2,76 at 0,13%...DJ-BA.2.75 may be a major problem however other variants can turn out to be even worse...

[url]https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01214-4/fulltext[/url] or https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)01214-4/fulltext 

NL-Study on "Long CoViD" with 12,7% of the people infected developing long term health issues...DJ newer variants, co-infections with other (increasing) diseases (MPX...) may worsen that statistic...It had to be a retro-spective study. The coming developments may indicate numbers of "LC" may be even higher...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2022 at 11:55pm

DJ,

[url]https://www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20220802/Further-SARS-CoV-2-variants-and-intermittent-epidemics-may-become-the-new-normal.aspx[/url] or https://www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20220802/Further-SARS-CoV-2-variants-and-intermittent-epidemics-may-become-the-new-normal.aspx ;Assuming the emergence of further distinct variants, intermittent epidemics of similar magnitudes [as Omicron, which reached a record prevalence of 7% in England at one point] may become the ‘new normal’.”

This article also sticks to Despite the significantly high levels of recent infections, the herd immunity threshold required for prevalence to decrease had not yet been reached.”

and 

Booster vaccine doses and improving current COVID-19 vaccines to provide immunity against these newer variants, as well as continued monitoring, will be essential for maintaining public health.  

DJ; Like western endless wars, fiat-currencies, making the climate crisis only worse...the inability to learn from mistakes is shocking !!!

"Herd immunity" will NEVER be reached for a virus this widespread mutating this fast...vaccines while NOT stopping the spread only results in variants better in evading immunity (both from vaccines and earlier infections with other/same variants...). 

The massive spread of CoViD-very likely billions of cases-most but not all in humans-is damaging immunity against other diseases. NOT linking how MPX/Monkeypox did get this big-refusing to link MPX to the CoViD-pandemic-is closing your eyes for a coming healthdisaster unseen in human history...

Tunnel-vision is NOT science but the denial of science ! Not willing/unable to see the "big picture" did bring us exponential growth..Denialism is making matters only worse !!!

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-japanese-study-indicates-ba-2-75-the-next-variant-to-follow-after-the-ba-5-surges-is-not-only-more-transmissible-but-also-more-pathogenic[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-japanese-study-indicates-ba-2-75-the-next-variant-to-follow-after-the-ba-5-surges-is-not-only-more-transmissible-but-also-more-pathogenic  link to [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.08.07.503115v1[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.08.07.503115v1 ;

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75 emerged in May 2022. BA.2.75 is a BA.2 descendant but is phylogenetically different from BA.5, the currently predominant BA.2 descendant. Here, we showed that the effective reproduction number of BA.2.75 is greater than that of BA.5. While the sensitivity of BA.2.75 to vaccination- and BA.1/2 breakthrough infection-induced humoral immunity was comparable to that of BA.2, the immunogenicity of BA.2.75 was different from that of BA.2 and BA.5. Three clinically-available antiviral drugs were effective against BA.2.75. BA.2.75 spike exhibited a profound higher affinity to human ACE2 than BA.2 and BA.5 spikes. The fusogenicity, growth efficiency in human alveolar epithelial cells, and intrinsic pathogenicity in hamsters of BA.2.75 were comparable to those of BA.5 but were greater than those of BA.2. Our multiscale investigations suggest that BA.2.75 acquired virological properties independently of BA.5, and the potential risk of BA.2.75 to global health is greater than that of BA.5.

DJ...STOP THE SPREAD !!!!

[url]https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard[/url] or https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/raj.rajnarayanan/viz/USAVariantDB/VariantDashboard ;

In The US BA.2.75 at 0,15%, BA.2.76 at 0,08% will BA.4.6 outcompete the BA.2 subvariants ? (BA.4.6 at 4,24%) at least for the time ? 

I worry about schools/workplaces restarting within a month...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory Monkeypox confirmed cases now over 30,000 with 9,000 of them in the US...Real numbers may be 10X the reported numbers...The US may be doing better then a lot of other countries in testing/reporting monkeypox...NL updates its numbers twice a week...

NOT linking Monkeypox pandemic to the CoViD-pandemic is very wrong ! Anti-science ! It is closing your eyes for a "snowball-effect" the CoViD-pandemic did start; a cascade of other diseases increasing due to decrease of human immunity protection...H5N1 widespread in birds, a possible increase of H3N2 Swine-Flu may indicate CoViD may be more widespread outside humans then we want to know...

STOP THE SPREAD by limiting travel, mass events etc. work/study from home does make sense. Mass vaccinations while NOT stopping the spread worsen the situation...

End of part 1...coffee ! We are moving towards a heatwave here in NL...icecream is welcome...I love the ice with chocolate and nuts...

Olivia Newton John died...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUgn_hJKU7k[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUgn_hJKU7k she started her carreer in the 60's on Australian TV...Like the BeeGees "ONJ" had the UK-Aus-US nationality...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olivia_Newton-John#Early_life[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olivia_Newton-John#Early_life ;

Newton-John was born on 26 September 1948[3] in Cambridge, United Kingdom, to Welshman Brinley "Bryn" Newton-John (1914–1992) and Irene Helene (née Born; 1914–2003).[3] Her Jewish maternal grandfather, the Nobel Prize–winning physicist Max Born,[4][5][6][7] fled with his wife and children to Britain from Germany before World War II to escape the Nazi regime. Newton-John's maternal grandmother was of paternal Jewish ancestry as well; through her, she was a third cousin of comedian Ben Elton.[4] Her maternal great-grandfather was the jurist Victor Ehrenberg and her matrilineal great-grandmother's father was the jurist Rudolf von Jhering.

Newton-John's father was an MI5 officer[8] on the Enigma project at Bletchley Park who took Rudolf Hess into custody during World War II.[9][10] After the war, he became the headmaster of the Cambridgeshire High School for Boys and was in this position when Olivia was born.

Newton-John was the youngest of three children, following her brother Hugh (1939–2019), a medical doctor, and her sister Rona (1941–2013), an actress who was married to Olivia's Grease co-star Jeff Conaway (from 1980 until their divorce in 1985). In 1954, when she was six, Newton-John's family emigrated to Melbourne, Australia, where her father worked as a professor of German and as the master of Ormond College at the University of Melbourne.[11]

She attended Christ Church Grammar School in the Melbourne suburb of South Yarra[12] and then the University High School in Parkville.[13]



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2022 at 1:34am

part 2...

Music; Olivia Newton-John on a TV-show in 1965 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLR2RdciJGc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLR2RdciJGc some info [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olivia_Newton-John#Career_beginnings[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olivia_Newton-John#Career_beginnings

Career beginnings

At age 14, Newton-John formed Sol Four, a short-lived all-girl group, with three classmates, often performing in a coffee shop owned by her brother-in-law.[14] She became a regular on local Australian television shows including Time for Terry and HSV-7's The Happy Show where she performed as "Lovely Livvy".[15]

She also appeared on The Go!! Show where she met future duet partner, singer Pat Carroll, and her future music producer, John Farrar (Carroll and Farrar would later marry). In 1965 she entered and won a talent contest on the television program Sing, Sing, Sing, hosted by 1960s Australian icon Johnny O'Keefe, performing the songs "Anyone Who Had a Heart" and "Everything's Coming Up Roses". She was initially reluctant to use the prize she had won, a trip to Great Britain, but travelled there nearly a year later after her mother encouraged her to broaden her horizons.[1]

Newton-John recorded her first single, "Till You Say You'll Be Mine", in Britain for Decca Records in 1966.[1] While in Britain, Newton-John missed her then-boyfriend, Ian Turpie, with whom she had co-starred in an Australian telefilm, Funny Things Happen Down Under. She repeatedly booked trips back to Australia that her mother would subsequently cancel.[14]

Newton-John's outlook changed when Pat Carroll moved to the UK. The two formed a duo called "Pat and Olivia" and toured nightclubs in Europe. (In one incident, they were booked at Paul Raymond's Revue in Soho, London, and were unaware that it was a strip club until they began to perform onstage dressed primly in frilly, high-collared dresses.)[16] After Carroll's visa expired, forcing her to return to Australia, Newton-John remained in Britain to pursue solo work until 1975.[16]

Newton-John was recruited for the group Toomorrow,[17] formed by American producer Don Kirshner. In 1970, the group starred in a "science fiction musical" film and recorded an accompanying soundtrack album, on RCA Records, both named after the group. That same year the group made two single recordings, "You're My Baby Now"/"Goin' Back" and "I Could Never Live Without Your Love"/"Roll Like a River". Neither track became a chart success and the project failed with the group disbanding.[18]

Early success

Newton-John released her first solo album, If Not for You (US No. 158 Pop), in 1971. (In the UK, the album was known as Olivia Newton-John.) The title track, written by Bob Dylan and previously recorded by former Beatle George Harrison for his 1970 album All Things Must Pass, was her first international hit (US No. 25 Pop, No. 1 Adult Contemporary/"AC").[19] Her follow-up single, "Banks of the Ohio", was a top 10 hit in the UK and Australia. She was voted Best British Female Vocalist two years in a row by the magazine Record Mirror. She made frequent appearances on Cliff Richard's weekly show It's Cliff Richard[20] and starred with him in the telefilm The Case.

DJ, A career has "its mutations"...some choices may bring succes, others may end a career...I think "history has its mutations" as well-from that perspective one may look at pandemics to see what does increase the pandemic and what may result in slowing down a pandemic. 

The present pandemics are not new in many ways. What is new is the high level of both travel and (over 12 billion) vaccines...They may both be worsening the pandemics...Vaccines may save lives-on the one hand; limiting severity of disease...on the other hand not stopping the spread with a high level of vaccinations seems to result in immunity evading variants...at the end making vaccines useless...On the long run maybe vaccinated people that do get infected maybe worse of due to the immune system spreading disease ? Earlier infection no longer offering any protection against new infections ? 








Repeating for emphasis- "BA.5 induced immunity was ineffective against BA2.75" Also, this study in hamsters is without the detrimental effect of "hybrid dampening" as shown by Altmann and others

DJ...I notice more attention going towards non-human CoViD-spread...at least somewhat...The level of spread of diseases outside humans may be a major factor in what to expect in this worsening healthcrisis...Again-if H3N2 "swine-flu", H5N1 "bird flu" lots of other diseases in animals would be able to jump over and spread into humans because of billions of human CoViD-infections resulted in a break down of defenses against all kinds of other diseases (also lots of links with climate collapse...) we face the worst health crisis humans ever faced...

On top of a worsening climate crisis Medeterranean sea 5C warmer then normal, sea-live from the Red Sea/Indian Ocean moving in...replacing Mediterranean Sea species...Since the North Sea is 3C warmer then "normal" Mediterranean sea-life may move north ? 

[url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3721.600.html[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3721.600.html Arctic Sea Ice now at 12th lowest...however quality is much worse...statistics are misleading...Multi-Year Ice, Greenland Ice "bad"...in an exponential model the step before "100%" is 50%, before that "25%", 12,5%, 6,25%...

translating that to "chronic CoViD" in 12,7% of confirmed cases so far...What do co-infections of CoViD with Monkeypox, flu, and/or polio (etc) bring ? 

It is good CoViD symptoms in the UK are going down high-speed [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time but it only means we will see another-very likely worse-wave starting within a month...

[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps has excess deaths in Europe moving above the 2020 level...Spain even reporting "high excess" deaths...no doubt a combination of a heat wave and CoViD...resulting in 7-10% above "normal" deaths...(with the normal very likely already above a normal for 2000...due to increasing heatwaves etc.). 








Getting trolled incessantly for saying that FFP3 masks (if well fitting) provide high protection from infection & if I could only have one mitigation, I'd choose them over others because they massively reduce my risk & protect me/others irrespective of variant/waning immunity🧵

149

732

4,395


DJ, Masks work ! They did work also during the Spanish Flu ! Limiting travel, mass events work ! The less contacts the less spread ! But somehow "very basic steps" on pandemic control even get under attack...

Feel free to deny an umbrella has a use when it rains...but please allow others to use an umbrella ! 









Another BA getting closer to #Delta. The direction is clear. #Omicron is kicking like crazy against our hybrid immunity. It's trying different combinations that work in this changing environment. BA waves are smaller but more frequent so they're looking like one neverending wave.

DJ...a virus does not think...it is very simple-therefore it may be very strong.....The "goal" of the virus is to reproduce itself as often as possible...for that reason it needs hosts...CoViD may have found a potential unlimited number of possible hosts for (re)infections...Other virusses, bacteria may also be able to "use the gap"....

Diseases may become better in evading immunity, stay longer in hosts to reproduce themselves...virusses/bacteria (etc) learn better to co-excist, co-operate, co-spread...If one species runs out it will spread further in other species...Maybe bacteria will survive...restarting live on this planet one day...

End of part 2...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2022 at 9:39pm

DJ, 

Music; The Seekers [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSxwqBJLU8A[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSxwqBJLU8A A world of our own...Judith Durham died a few days ago at the age of 79...

The pandemics (maybe "pandemix" in some languages ?...not to be confused with "pandamix"...)

A look at some-far from complete-statistics;

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table reporting 774,088 new cases, 2,120 deaths for august 9...UK and lots of other countries simply not reporting cases in this list...US numbers here are 58,223 new cases, 342 deaths...(Most of the time I can find much higher numbers for the US on twitter...).

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory global cases 32,035 confirmed...US 9,461 cases...most likely because a lot of countries are doing even worse in testing and reporting...I think 10x the reported cases may give a decent global estimate...The list also include "last update"...NL still reporting 957 cases...since august 4 no update...must be lots of new cases...NL now going for once a week updates ? 

Climate link [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01426-1[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01426-1 ; It is relatively well accepted that climate change can affect human pathogenic diseases; however, the full extent of this risk remains poorly quantified. Here we carried out a systematic search for empirical examples about the impacts of ten climatic hazards sensitive to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on each known human pathogenic disease. 

We found that 58% (that is, 218 out of 375) of infectious diseases confronted by humanity worldwide have been at some point aggravated by climatic hazards; 

16% were at times diminished. 

Empirical cases revealed 1,006 unique pathways in which climatic hazards, via different transmission types, led to pathogenic diseases. 

The human pathogenic diseases and transmission pathways aggravated by climatic hazards are too numerous for comprehensive societal adaptations, highlighting the urgent need to work at the source of the problem: reducing GHG emissions.

DJ...so far the way we are dealing with climate "change" only did bring us "climate collapse"..."economy=profit first" just like in the pandemics...at the end destroying that economy...

Billions of CoViD infections both in humans and other species (mice, rats, mink...) may have weakened immunity protection...only very radical changes may provide us with a glimpse of a chance for human survival...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/09/national-heat-plan-activated-wednesday[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/09/national-heat-plan-activated-wednesday drought-at some places beyond the 1976 record-is effecting river transport to harvest...Groundwater has a cooling effect..if the groundwater level is sinking the cooling effect is getting smaller...temperatures go up...

Another aspact is aging...Till 1900 average life expectency was 40...It may have increased from 30 in Roman times to 40 in 1900 years...lots of children died young...In 2020 life expectency was around double the historic average...people "with some luck" did get over 80...Here in NL there are "tens of thousends" 100+ y/o...

So heatwaves, diseases, combined with a much more vulnerable population may see high number of deaths...

When you look at pandemic statistics it does matter what ages are seeing excess deaths...In part CoViD killed people that otherwise would have died from the flu...Monkeypox killed another person in Equador...total now at "only" 7...Problem is most people die from a mix of diseases...diabetes in combination with CoViD, flu, pneumonia...hearthproblems, high blood pressure...

To get a more realistic overview one has to include a lot of factors...otherwise "tunnelvision" can give the wrong perspective... One disease on its own may be a limited risk for most...but when you put it against a background-get the perspectives-those risks may get much worse...

Medication logistics may become a problem soon...Most countries have at least some form of basic public healthcare...but the costs of care are exploding...Global trade is in crisis. 

Further social unrest, wars, only make matters worse...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/  per country/5 years [url]https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/netherlands-demographics/#life-exp[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/netherlands-demographics/#life-exp till 2020 going up...

[url]https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#:~:text=The%20United%20Nations%20estimate%20a,any%20country%20back%20in%201950.[/url] or https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#:~:text=The%20United%20Nations%20estimate%20a,any%20country%20back%20in%201950. also sticking to "pre-pandemic" numbers...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-japanese-study-indicates-ba-2-75-the-next-variant-to-follow-after-the-ba-5-surges-is-not-only-more-transmissible-but-also-more-pathogenic[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-japanese-study-indicates-ba-2-75-the-next-variant-to-follow-after-the-ba-5-surges-is-not-only-more-transmissible-but-also-more-pathogenic trying to make the point pandemic deaths are increasing since 2020...2021 was worse then 2020, 2022 will be worse then 2021...

CoViD deaths per 1.1.2021 at 1,964,000, per 1.1.2022 5,480,000 (so increase of 3,516,000)...we are now at 6,440,000 CoViD deaths...with excess deaths also going up...an increase of less then 1 million so far...However 580,000 deaths per july 1 2020...4,010,000 deaths per july 1 2021, 6,360,000 deaths per july 1 2022 indicate most of the increase of deaths may be in the second half of the year...

july 1 2020  0,58 (millions of CoViD deaths)

january 1 2021  1,964

july 1 2021 4,01

january 1 2022 5,48

july 1 2022 6,36

leaves us at january 1 2023 with 7 million+ CoViD confirmed+tested deaths within 28 days...

There are also excess deaths statistics...another time...heatwaves are a massive killer...long/chronic CoViD in combination with a heatwave may be "a killer" as well...Excess deaths are much higher then reported CoViD-deaths...

End of part 1...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, 

Again climate change/collapse as a motor behind increase of pandemics...[url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01426-1[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01426-1We found 3,213 empirical case examples in which climatic hazards were implicated in pathogenic diseases. All empirical case examples were related to 286 unique pathogenic diseases (Supplementary Table 1), of which 277 were aggravated (glossary in Text Box 1) by at least one climatic hazard (Fig. 3). Although 63 diseases were diminished (glossary in Text Box 1) by some climatic hazards, 54 of them were at times also aggravated by other climatic hazards; only nine pathogenic diseases were exclusively diminished by climatic hazards (Fig. 4a and Supplementary Table 1).

DJ, the big picture should be clear...

The compilation of pathogenic diseases aggravated by climatic hazards represent 58% of all infectious diseases reported to have impacted humanity worldwide (that is, out of an authoritative list of 375 infectious diseases documented to have impacted humanity (Methods), 218 were found to be aggravated by climatic hazards; Fig. 4b and Supplementary Table 1). We found 1,006 unique pathways in which climatic hazards, via different transmission types, resulted in cases of pathogenic diseases (an interactive display of the diseases is available at https://camilo-mora.github.io/Diseases/). Warming (160 unique diseases), precipitation (122), floods (121), drought (81), storms (71), land cover change (61), ocean climate change (43), fires (21), heatwaves (20) and sea level (10) were all found to influence diseases triggered by viruses (76), bacteria (69), animals (45), fungi (24), protozoans (23), plants (12) and chromists (9). Pathogenic diseases were primarily transmitted by vectors (103 unique diseases), although case examples were also found for transmission pathways involving waterborne (78), airborne (60), direct contact (56) and foodborne (50 unique diseases) (Fig. 3). Among all case examples of pathogenic diseases impacted negatively by climatic hazards, there were 19 general disease names (for example, gastrointestinal infections) that lacked information on the causal pathogen (Fig. 3 and Supplementary Table 1); for 116 diseases, there was no information provided on the transmission pathway (caveats in Supplementary Information 1).

DJ...So are we preparing for more pandemics ? NO ! [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory and [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table slowly moving towards 600 million confirmed tested CoViD cases, august 10 had another 857,287 new cases, and 2,447 CoViD deaths were reported...most cases are no longer reported, excess deaths give a more realistic view on CoViD...

Another reminder has to be diseases will not only affect humans but also the plants we eat...some people still eat death animals...worsening the problem. Diseases will even worsen the foodcrisis we are slowly moving towards...

Maybe I am "to pessimistic" in my idea bacteria will become the next dominant form of life on Earth...but "we are slowly killing ourselves" via climate change and the related pandemics, food crises, wars...








🚨Mainland #China reports 614 local symptomatic cases and 1397 asymptomatic cases on August 10.🔼 More than 2k in total, most since May 12 --- #Hainan 559 + 805🔼 #Xinjiang 0 + 380🔼 #Tibet 2 + 66🔼 #Zhejiang 11 + 56🔼 #Guangdong 25 + 5🔽 --- Source: NHC

DJ, CoViD still is a global problem...

U.S. COVID update: More than 800 new deaths - New cases: 159,766 - Average: 109,696 (-5,902) - States reporting: 32/50 - In hospital: 42,896 (+347) - In ICU: 5,000 (+66) - New deaths: 825 - Average: 470 (-21)

DJ Worldometers had 95,530 new US cases, 429 deaths...there is a major gap in statistics...(both for MPX/Monkeypox and CoViD). And there are several variants of CoViD dominant in several parts of the globe; [url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN US has 27,09% BA.5.2.1, lots of other BA.5 variants follow...India has 28,26% BA.2.75...with 13,99% for BA.5.2 and 13,79% BA.2.76...Rajlab gives last 15 days, [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports looking at last 60 days...

UK cases [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time keep going down...based on self-reporting of symptoms...(DJ-A-symptomatic spread could be a factor ?) 

DJ-My estimate is we will end up in another global major wave next month with schools/workplaces reopening...Early winter may bring an early flu season on top of it all...For now all regions see reported cases going down...what you would expect during summer...The major summer wave should not be seen as "normal"...summer was supposed to see cases going down, more outdoor activity...

The ongoing heatwaves (France now in its 4th heatwave of this year !) may see more airco/ventilator...people closing doors to keep the heath out...On top of that long CoViD and heat waves may see increase of deaths...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 2, 

DJ-I-again-am NOT an expert on medical matters...only limited history background. Still I follow health-related news for decades...When I find myself becoming "very critical" both on media and governments "some balancing" is welcome;

When is is obvious that Reuters, a news service, is saying things that are not true:

-

Eric Feigl-Ding

@DrEricDing
 · 
APOLOGY NEEDED—I think @ReutersFacts owes everyone a big APOLOGY for posting a dubious “fact check” claiming that the CDC has never said #monkeypox is airborne whenever countless @CDCgov documents say airborne precautions needed. Shameful. ➡️Follow @PPEtoheros not @ReutersFacts twitter.com/ppetoheros/sta…

-

Vulnerable people are being sacrificed. Healthy people are being made vulnerable. One way to oblivion. We have better choices. We Are Not 'In This Together': The Biden Adminstration's Covid-19 Policy Is Still Killing Vulnerable People https://commondreams.org/views/2022/07/31/we-are-not-together-biden-adminstrations-covid-19-policy-still-killing-vulnerable via 

DJ; [url]https://www.commondreams.org/views/2022/07/31/we-are-not-together-biden-adminstrations-covid-19-policy-still-killing-vulnerable[/url] or https://www.commondreams.org/views/2022/07/31/we-are-not-together-biden-adminstrations-covid-19-policy-still-killing-vulnerable ; Our government has abandoned its responsibility to protect its citizens by blaming its failures on the very individuals it was elected to protect.

-

The Biden administration's failure to protect vulnerable people from Covid-19 is evident in CDC director Rochelle Walensky's comments from January 7, 2022: "The overwhelming number of deaths, over 75%, occurred in people who had at least four comorbidities. So really, these are people who were unwell to begin with. And yes, really encouraging news in the context of Omicron."

Walensky's comments caused widespread outrage in the disability community but they only hint at the magnitude of this administration's cruel and normalized failure to protect vulnerable lives. In response to our outrage, the CDC, Biden, and their Covid-minimizing pundits continue to insist that our deaths are unfortunate, but inevitable. At the same time, they wage an ongoing campaign to convince the public that implementing simple measures to protect us would be too great a burden. In lieu of protecting the high-risk community with substantive public health policy like universal masking, improved ventilation, and adequate isolation periods, the CDC has assured us that it is "committed to continuing the dialogue," and "working to help reduce health disparities… with initiatives including providing accessible materials and culturally relevant messages."

"Genocide by pandemic" is not new when you think of western in-action on HIV/AIDS in Africa...

Desperately hoping that the recently identified community transmission of vaccine polio virus through wastewater surveillance will be the impetus for improving water sanitation, and preventing discharge of raw sewage into our water bodies.

DJ [url]https://www.gov.uk/government/news/sewage-in-water-a-growing-public-health-problem[/url] or https://www.gov.uk/government/news/sewage-in-water-a-growing-public-health-problem ...more and more people start to see this pandemic, NOT solving the climate, food, energy crises, wars are the outcome of "bad politics". Those "politics" increase income inequality to levels unseen in human history; 0,1% claiming to own more then 80% of the "poor"....(in some statistics). 

Yet-"experts need funding"...so they have to go for "tunnel visions" see one sub-variant due to some mutations "spreading faster" then some other subvariants...Well, governments fail to stop ANY spread, it does not matter if one sub-variant is better in evading immunity...STOP THE SPREAD...OR DIE !!!

It is becoming more and more "simple"...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/origins/america-finally-starts-asking-the-right-questions-about-the-origins-of-sars-cov-2/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/origins/america-finally-starts-asking-the-right-questions-about-the-origins-of-sars-cov-2/

There were extraordinary scenes at a senate committee hearing last week as Senator Rand Paul forensically investigated scientists about the origins of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, and the gain-of-function experiments that may have caused it.

After nearly three years of this pandemic, someone is finally asking the right questions about not only the health aspects of SARS-CoV-2, but also, crucially, the security implications too.

Forget Netflix for an evening, this is way more important.

Highlights:

  • Why are gene sequences for pandemic-capable pathogens that can kill millions of people published publicly?
  • Why are we searching for pandemic-capable pathogens and then manipulating them to make them even more infectious?
  • Who is supervising these dangerous gain-of-function experiments?
  • How easy would it be for a terrorist to create a pandemic-capable pathogen?
  • Why is America funding gain-of function experiments on novel pathogens in China?
  • Why are scientists undertaking gain-of-function research at all?

A must-watch video for anyone interested in how SARS -CoV-2 was able to kill and maim millions across the globe.

DJ Video's on the link...I do think very likely SARS-2/CoViD-19 did start in bats/animals...I do not know how much SARS-1 (2003) and SARS-2 (2019) share...could SARS-2 be SARS-1 showing up again via a long range of hosts...????

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-shows-that-children-who-contracted-only-mild-covid-19-can-still-develop-long-covid-symptoms-after-recovery[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-shows-that-children-who-contracted-only-mild-covid-19-can-still-develop-long-covid-symptoms-after-recovery ...ventilation on schools is often still bad...Schools are not top-priority for most governments (war is...)...but children are often forced to visit schools, "getting herd immunity" often is the "official strategy" even when it is proven NOT to work; there is NO herd/group-immunity...The indication is human-immunity for the species may be getting weaker...with more diseases spreading...

But do not ask questions on relations between CoViD and Monkeypox out of control...For both most politicians and "journalists" there is "no link" ...."Vaccines/summer will save us"-nonsense!

The only way out of these crises is to get rid of failing politicians and embedded press ! 

A matter of time...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory MPX 34,110 confirmed cases...including suspected 37,510...still 7 deaths total..real numbers higher...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/research-monkeypox-spread-by-flies/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/research-monkeypox-spread-by-flies/ ;

“We identify the circulation of at least two distinct monkeypox virus lineages and document the shedding of infectious particles in faeces and flies, suggesting that they could mediate indirect transmission”.

“To explore alternative pathways for indirect MPXV transmission, we also trapped flies during two outbreaks. In the outbreak in the north community, MPXV DNA was detected in maggots present on the corpse, in 1 out of 8 flies collected around it, and in all 12 swabs taken from leaves where flies had regurgitated/defaecated in proximity of the carcass.”

Nature article: Monkeypox virus emergence in wild chimpanzees reveals distinct clinical outcomes and viral diversity

DJ...another reason to stop linking MPX with gay men...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/monkeypox-infected-by-a-kiss-on-the-cheek-unimaginable-pain-then-my-dogs-got-lesions/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/monkeypox-infected-by-a-kiss-on-the-cheek-unimaginable-pain-then-my-dogs-got-lesions/ ; David Watson from California giving evidence on his recent experience with monkeypox – he caught it by kissing a friend on the cheek – his husband then became infected – then his TWO DOGS started showing lesions.

The way a lot of people deal with their pets makes pets high risk for further spread of MPX/MonkeyPoX

[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/08/articles/uncategorized/human-dog-monkeypox-france/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/08/articles/uncategorized/human-dog-monkeypox-france/ ; I’ll start this off with “don’t freak out, overhype it or be paranoid about your dog”.  (I’ll probably end with that too).

We’ve been saying from the start (as with COVID) that we need to assume that a virus can infect a range of speices until we know that it can’t. As I discussed before, we have very little understanding of what species MPXV can infect. As with COVID, some groups have stuck with the ‘we have no evidence that dogs can be infected’ without acknowledging we have no evidence either way.

Should someone with monkeypox get rid of their pet?

No. Consideration could be given to temporarily re-homing the pet but that would only be reasonable if the pet hasn’t been exposed. Otherwise, it creates a potential transmission situation if the pet carries the virus to a new household. As with COVID, it’s probably best to keep the pet in the household and let the pet and owner(s) get through the situation together in isolation.

DJ [url]https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/veterinarian/animal-officials.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/veterinarian/animal-officials.html  ...

My non-expert reaction;

-Given MPX can spread without symptoms it may also spread via pets/animals...

-MPX in animals will result in other kind of mutations/mix

-basic hygiene would be welcome...do not let a dog lick you in the face (or even mouth...) or on wounds (good for infection...). 

It would be welcome if owners have MPX their pets also could get tested and recieve treatment...but it is unclear if dogs can infect other dogs very easy...

From dogs/pets to children;

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-u-s-cdc-reports-high-incidences-of-kidney-failure,-clots,-diabetes-and-heart-issues-in-post-covid-children-and-teenagers[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-u-s-cdc-reports-high-incidences-of-kidney-failure,-clots,-diabetes-and-heart-issues-in-post-covid-children-and-teenagers 

link to [url]https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7131a3.htm[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7131a3.htm ;

Post–COVID-19 (post-COVID) symptoms and conditions* are new, recurring, or ongoing health problems that occur 4 or more weeks after infection with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19). Previous studies have characterized and estimated the incidence of post-COVID conditions among adults (1,2), but data among children and adolescents are limited (38). Using a large medical claims database, CDC assessed nine potential post-COVID signs and symptoms (symptoms) and 15 potential post-COVID conditions among 781,419 U.S. children and adolescents aged 0–17 years with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 (patients with COVID-19) compared with 2,344,257 U.S. children and adolescents without recognized COVID-19 (patients without COVID-19) during March 1, 2020–January 31, 2022. 

The analysis identified several symptoms and conditions with elevated adjusted hazard ratios among patients with COVID-19 (compared with those without). The highest hazard ratios were recorded for;

-1.  acute pulmonary embolism (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 2.01), 

-2. myocarditis and cardiomyopathy (1.99), 

-3. venous thromboembolic event (1.87), 

-4. acute and unspecified renal failure (1.32), and 

-5. type 1 diabetes (1.23), 

all of which were rare or uncommon in this study population. Conversely, symptoms and conditions that were most common in this study population had lower aHRs (near or below 1.0). 

Patients with COVID-19 were less likely than were patients without to experience respiratory signs and symptoms, symptoms of mental conditions, muscle disorders, neurological conditions, anxiety and fear-related disorders, mood disorders, and sleeping disorders. COVID-19 prevention strategies, including vaccination for all eligible children and adolescents, are critical to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection and subsequent illness, including post-COVID symptoms and conditions (9).

DJ...New variants can change the picture...decrease of exposure=decrease of risks...Masks, ventilation also do help...






Scottish Government

@scotgov
 · 
Although #coronavirus restrictions have been lifted in Scotland, the virus has not gone away. Wash your hands regularly to protect yourself, and cover your nose and mouth if coughing or sneezing to protect other. Find out more: http://gov.scot/coronavirus

Of course

Seriously? Two years into the pandemic and this is your public health messaging? COVID is airborne- wear a well-fitting FFP2/3 mask, ventilate, clean air (air filtration), and avoid crowded indoor spaces if you can.

it is showing government faillure...we may now be three years from the start of virus-spread for CoViD...

DJ-Governments/experts deal with CoViD/pandemics the way they deal with climate change...to much words...expensive bla-bla, to little/no action....

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/08/arctic-sea-ice-august-2022.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/08/arctic-sea-ice-august-2022.html ;

Latent heat is ocean heat that is, or rather was previously consumed by melting of the sea ice underneath the sea surface. 

This ice has meanwhile all but disappeared, so without this latent heat buffer further incoming heat must go elsewhere, i.e. the heat will further raise the temperature of the water and it will also cause more evaporation to take place where the sea ice has disappeared altogether, and this in turn will further heat up the atmosphere over the Arctic. 

The danger is that ocean heat keeps arriving in the Arctic Ocean, while the latent heat buffer is gone. As a result, more of this heat could reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, threatening to destabilize hydrates in these sediment, resulting in methane eruptions both from these hydrates and from free gas underneath these hydrates.

When adding this monthly CO₂ concentration of 420.99 ppm and the above 393.8 ppm CO₂e for methane, that gives a total of 814.79 ppm CO₂e. 

Conclusion


In conclusion, there is a growing risk that methane will erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which could cause a dramatic rise in temperature. 

Even without such eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, temperatures could rise strongly, as we move into an El Niño and face a peak in sunspots. The resulting temperature rise could  drive humans extinct as early as in 2025 with temperatures continuing to skyrocket in 2026, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. 

At the same time, the right thing to do now is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.

DJ...all we can do is try to limit damage, hope we may be lucky in some aspects...both for climate change and pandemics...

Coffee...maybe I find time/news for a part 2...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 11 2022 at 10:44pm

part 2, 

Welcome news! 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/11/radboud-university-researchers-may-vaccine-fights-spread-malaria[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/11/radboud-university-researchers-may-vaccine-fights-spread-malaria ;

Researchers at the Radboud University Medical Center in Nijmegen think they have developed a vaccine that combats the spread of malaria. If an Anopheles mosquito bites a person who has taken the vaccine, and draws a blood meal from them, the malaria parasites in that mosquito are rendered harmless, according to clinical research. The person who has been bitten can still get malaria, but if the mosquito in question then stings another person it is unlikely to infect them.

Those who get vaccinated with the new product would be doing so exclusively to help others, and to actively fight against the proliferation of the disease. A single injection would be enough to prevent new malaria cases from emerging others for an entire malaria season, the scientists expect.


If the drug becomes available in the future, they believe their will be a high willingness to get vaccinated. With more than 200 million cases per year resulting in more than 600,000 deaths, malaria is one of the most major infectious diseases. "Young children in Africa, with poor access to health care, are particularly at risk for malaria," the scientists state.

The new drug, an antibody called TB31F, has since been tested on healthy volunteers. It has been shown to be effective and safe thus far, without serious side effects, according to the researchers. The scientists are now preparing plans to field test the drug in Africa.

People have long been able to protect themselves against the consequences of an infection by taking malaria pills. However, those pills are not always available for everyone

DJ, If these vaccines are safe...one may hope "countries we keep poor" can get them on relevant numbers...Malaria is "moving north" due to climate change. Public health should go above private profits for the few...

The current crises, from health to housing, climate to wars are the outcome of political disasters like bojo, truss, biden, trump...macron, rutte etc. There is a democracy crisis...every $ or € counts, not every vote...democrazy...a political crisis. Well-in my view/opinion....








Evusheld useless against BA.4.6 and any other BA.4/5 + R346X lineage (and there are many). Bad news for the immunocompromised & otherwise vulnerable relying on Evusheld for protection. Seems unwise to count on any MAb being effective for very long.

and 






Fanchong Jian

@jianfcpku
 · 
These variants, including BA.4.6/BF.7 (346T), BA.5.9 (346I) and BA.4.7 (346S), generally exhibit stronger immune evasion compared to BA.4/5. Importantly, it also significantly evades convalescent plasma from BA.5 convalescents, indicating potential reinfection.
Show this thread

DJ, If (Big) Pharma has limited long term use Non Pharma Interventions should increase; STOP THE SPREAD !!! Travel limits, masks, no mass-spread-events...a legal right to work/study from home....Why do we not see NPI going up? Are we inviting disaster ? 

Schools/workplaces reopening is just weeks away...winter-weather a few months from now...Do government want to "score" a new world record in excess deaths or so ? 

Long/chronic CoViD; 

additional cardiovascular disease... less well compensated... symptomatic much earlier Yes, it's all being proven exactly as we thought two years ago. Still, nobody cares. Health care costs will explode but governments' answer will be to dismantle remnants of public health care.

and how politics solve the problem...

DJ exhaustion and desperation, frustration will "end this system" of exploration for the 0,1% making money out of crises they created...


The  doubles down on its flawed, not evidence based Covid recommendations with a new guidance document 1. Leaves fully vaccinated = 2 shots, stay "up to date" 2. Leaves isolation at 5 days w/o rapid tests 3. Pushes "community levels" when real info is "transmission levels"

DJ Government experts are supposed to work for us, we pay them (via tax)....


The Lancet Group has just launched a new #Monkeypox Collection, with content spanning epidemiology, treatments, and more. All of our monkeypox content is free to access: https://hubs.li/Q01jyPQs0

very welcome ! MPX at +1 million cases by november? Or even sooner ? 


#NewLineagesAlert #OmicronUpdates👀👀👀 BJ.1 {S:V83A, H146Q, Q183E, V213E, G339H, R346T, L368I, V445P, G446S, V483A, F490V, G798D, S1003I} BE.1.2 {S:R346T} BA.2.10.4 { S:W64R, G446S, F486P, R493Q} BA.2.76.1 { S:R357K } BH.1 { ORF1a:F1214I, S:L452Q } BA.2.38.3 { S:V1264L }

DJ [url]https://twitter.com/hashtag/NewLineagesAlert?src=hashtag_click[/url] or https://twitter.com/hashtag/NewLineagesAlert?src=hashtag_click  of course monitoring new variants, spread, other diseases (Polio) is very important...

The idea was governments would protect public health...since they simply not do their job it is on us to get informed...

Of course a lot of governments rather start more wars..."don't look up" ...


More coffee..it is still cool outside, another tropical day will soon arrive...Extreme drought affecting logistics and harvests, NL supermarket food prices +18,5% Year-on-year...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2022 at 10:16pm

DJ, 

It looks like pandemics-debate is going the way the climate change/collapse discussion is going..."Experts bla-bla"denial...short term profits, greed, winning again...further destroying life..

Of course-if I am correct-going into a dead-end street at the end leads to the dead-end. If there is a concrete wall and we move in high speed well we should know the outcome...If we move in "slow spead" we may be able to stop in time...if we are lucky the "dead end" of the road is a smaller, not hardened, path...a bumpy old road...we may be able to fool ourselfs we are "still on the road"...can ignore the cliff at the end....

In exponential models -with doubling of "things" in time-slots the step before 100% of "things" is only 50%, before that 25%, 12,5%, 6,25%....1-in-8 CoViD (tested ?) cases ending up in long/chronic CoViD = 12,5%...of the "tested CoViD cases"...

If 10% of health care workers can no longer do their job-while demand for healthcare is increasing-we will not see 10% less healthcare...Overstretching and underfunding (public) healthcare at the end is destroying public healthcare...

The "west" going for a "total sanctions war" soon may face a medication-crisis...

Climate collapse, pandemics, wars are the result of political choices...The idea that 1 billion cars on this planet is "no problem", every citizen (of the west) has a right to fly all over the planet...it all has its price...Meat consumption going up "for the rich" with billions of people facing starvation...the "market ideology", "pseudo-liberalism" is killing people by the tens-of-thousends each day...Most of them are (kept) "poor" so "they do not matter for the o so christian west"....

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-2-75/india-ba-2-75-centaurus-takes-off-in-dehli-masks-mandatory-again/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-2-75/india-ba-2-75-centaurus-takes-off-in-dehli-masks-mandatory-again/ ;

In Delhi, India, 2146 new cases of coronavirus were reported in the last 24 hours. The positivity rate has increased to nearly 18 percent. In the last 24 hours, 8 people have died of Covid in the city. Masking has been mandatory, with a fine for those not complying. 

Cases of the BA.2.75 variant had remained stable across the globe, and had even declined in some areas, but there are indications that BA.2.75 may have picked up new mutations in the past couple of weeks that may now give it an edge in competing with other strains.


Replying to  and 
Pretty good, just again the point re BA.4.6 which will probably be just a fad that gets surpassed by some new BA.5 lineages. Re BA.2.75, it could be picking up all sorts of things, not limited to S:L452R/Q/M - e.g. S:346K/T which seems to provide more of a growth advantage.

Replying to  and 
Yes - I guess that's what I meant with "a more eclectic mix of Omicron descendants" & I had BA.5.2* in my graph below as part of that mix too. And indeed: BA.4.6* & BA.2.75* might still be pick up extra mutations as well of course. Difficult to predict...

DJ, An average western politician reflex; ""difficult" lets ignore it...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-japanese-study-finds-u-s-fda-approved-and-promoted-covid-19-drug-remdesivir-induces-cardiomyocyte-dysfunction-and-is-cardiotoxic[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-japanese-study-finds-u-s-fda-approved-and-promoted-covid-19-drug-remdesivir-induces-cardiomyocyte-dysfunction-and-is-cardiotoxic 

The neo-liberal "strategy" is "markets have to come up with solutions", we invest a lot of tax-money...profits are private...And if it did not work...blame the companies...not the politicians...

Of course more wars to "free oil" and "bring democracy to gas"....

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-using-american-supplied-weapons-to-attack-nuclear-power-plant[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-using-american-supplied-weapons-to-attack-nuclear-power-plant ;

The Ukrainian Army is using American-made and supplied Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) to fire shells at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant in Ukraine, which is occupied by Russian Troops.

The image above shows a blast fragment from an American GMLRS shell "Actuator" recovered after it exploded on the grounds of the Nuclear Plant Thursday.  The English language on the Actuator manufacturing label shows the part number, serial number, the date of manufacture, and says "Actuator Module Assembly" on it.

The Russian Army won control of the Nuclear Power Plant early in its Special Military Operation to de-militarize and De-Nazify Ukraine.  The nuclear power plant is the largest in Europe, with six nuclear reactors.  Russia conquered it in March of this year, and has safeguarded the plant ever since.

The reason Russia took the plant is that if there was a nuclear accident with that plant, radioactive contamination would be carried by local prevailing winds, directly into Russia.  The Russians don't want any radiation floating into their country.

But early this week, Ukraine began doing the unthinkable: Deliberately firing artillery shells  at the plant; then made the absurd claim that Russia was firing - at their own Russian troops!

Russia even invited the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to come to the plant with inspectors to see exactly WHO it is that is firing at the plant.  Russia said they will bring the inspectors in safely and allow them to see for themselves who is attacking the plant.

Then things got an order of magnitude worse:

Russia publicly stated that Ukraine is attempting to hit the spent fuel cooling facilities on the grounds of that plant which will cause what they described as a "nuclear catastrophe worse than Chernobyl."

By doing this, Russia says Ukraine is attempting to use the plant as a sort of Tactical Nuclear Weapon.   If  Ukraine can cause a nuclear accident, the levels of radiation would be very much akin to the detonation of a battlefield tactical nuke.

SO . . . . .

Russia has told Ukraine and the rest of the world that "If Ukraine causes a nuclear catastrophe by shelling the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, Russia will consider such an act to be "nuclear terrorism" and, under Russia's long-established military doctrine, such nuclear errorism would require a Russian nuclear response; Russia will respond to Ukraine's "nuclear terrorism" by firing Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapons at Ukraine."

DJ...there are some claims Russia may attack Ukraine nuclear storage under Ukraine/NATO control if the Ukrainians (=NATO) do not stop shelling the nuclear storage tanks, power supplies needed for cooling...etc. 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/rhine-river-kaub-set-fall-below-critical-mark-iea-warns-prolonged-crisis[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/rhine-river-kaub-set-fall-below-critical-mark-iea-warns-prolonged-crisis DJ-Low water levels...in same places in Europe (a.o.) record drought..will not only affect shipping/logistics but also powerplants running out of cooling water...worsening even more the energy and inflation-crisis...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/nyc-health-department-warns-polio-circulating-city-after-virus-found-sewage[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/nyc-health-department-warns-polio-circulating-city-after-virus-found-sewage ; "The risk to New Yorkers is real but the defense is so simple — get vaccinated against polio ... With polio circulating in our communities there is simply nothing more essential than vaccinating our children to protect them from this virus, and if you're an unvaccinated or incompletely vaccinated adult, please choose now to get the vaccine," Dr. Ashwin Vasan, the New York City health commissioner, stated in a Department of Health press release

DJ...well...it is NOT that simple ! How many vaccines are people supposed to take ? CoVid, Flu, Polio...monkeypox no longer "just a gay disease" [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/research-monkeypox-spread-by-flies/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/research-monkeypox-spread-by-flies/ ...

Mass vaccination while NOT stopping the spread results in immunity evading variants...Part of the polio-story is using weakened-Polio-virus-vaccines...

Lots of other diseases just over the horizon...outcome of "how some of us ("the rich") live"...climate collapse, meat-consumption...

What is wrong with limiting (air)travel to 5-10% of pre-pandemic levels till 2030 ? Maybe more room-for electric planes- after that ? YES-there are economic costs...but "the pandemics, climate collapse" are left out of the calculation...STOP THE SPREAD !!!!

We are facing an "impossible healthcare crisis"; [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/12/gp-groups-annoyed-management-new-covid-vaccination-round[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/12/gp-groups-annoyed-management-new-covid-vaccination-round ; General practitioners are annoyed by how the Ministry of Public Health, Welfare, and Sports manages the new round of coronavirus vaccinations. Without any prior consultation, GPs were informed that they had to let the RIVM know which patients are eligible for the first shots, AD reports.

Dumping work to others has been the Dutch policy the last decades..."Politicians" want to decide but shift the jobs to Big Pharma, GP's, municipalities, ...at the end blaming patients for getting sick, victims for crime...mass media for "unwelcome news"...

You have to "tax the (very) rich" to be able to get out of this crisis...major problem however is "they own politics" in order to avoid that...

So-we are in a slow-motion-crash of "everything"...

End of part 1, Coffee...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2022 at 10:28pm

DJ, 

If you include suspected cases [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory we are now getting close to 40,000 cases...real number 10x that number...lack of symptoms/testing/reporting...

Polio must be spreading...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-2-75/preprint-potential-risk-of-ba-2-75-to-global-health-is-greater-than-that-of-ba-5/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/ba-2-75/preprint-potential-risk-of-ba-2-75-to-global-health-is-greater-than-that-of-ba-5/ ;

BA.2.75 spike exhibited a profound higher affinity to human ACE2 than BA.2 and BA.5 spikes.

BA.2.75 is a BA.2 descendant but is phylogenetically different from BA.5, the currently predominant BA.2 descendant.

Here, we showed that the effective reproduction number of BA.2.75 is greater than that of BA.5. While the sensitivity of BA.2.75 to vaccination- and BA.1/2 breakthrough infection-induced humoral immunity was comparable to that of BA.2, the immunogenicity of BA.2.75 was different from that of BA.2 and BA.5.

Three clinically-available antiviral drugs were effective against BA.2.75. BA.2.75 spike exhibited a profound higher affinity to human ACE2 than BA.2 and BA.5 spikes.

The fusogenicity, growth efficiency in human alveolar epithelial cells, and intrinsic pathogenicity in hamsters of BA.2.75 were comparable to those of BA.5 but were greater than those of BA.2.

Our multiscale investigations suggest that BA.2.75 acquired virological properties independently of BA.5, and the potential risk of BA.2.75 to global health is greater than that of BA.5.

Preprint: Virological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75

DJ-Of course CoViD is not over...(maybe the CDC should be "over"...)....BA.5.2.1, BA.4.6 and BA.2.75/76 all look problematic...further mutating...most likely getting better in finding ways to get around immunity (either from previous infections or vaccines...most people in the world are NOT vaccinated...Those that did get vaccinated very likely did get vaccinated in most cases 3, 4 or even more times...). 

The south part of the globe has an early (and that is part of the reason) severe (early start=more spread) flu season...Also "strong cold" was mentioned...reminds me of the "strong cold" in the fall of 2019...If you do not test how do you learn what virus is spreading ? 

DJ-I think H5/H7 "avian flu" may become a problem...(H5N6 did see some human cases-very limited spread so far- in China [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N6[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N6 ). But also "pig related H3N2" [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/america/usa/west-virginia/swine-flu-first-human-infection-from-pigs-in-the-us-in-2022/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/america/usa/west-virginia/swine-flu-first-human-infection-from-pigs-in-the-us-in-2022/ may show up...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/scientists-anticipate-that-tuberculosis-will-the-next-global-health-crisis-as-new-antibiotic-resistance-genes-have-been-identified[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/scientists-anticipate-that-tuberculosis-will-the-next-global-health-crisis-as-new-antibiotic-resistance-genes-have-been-identified TMN; links to 

[url]https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3001721[/url] or https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3001721 


and [url]https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3001755[/url] or https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.3001755

DJ, multi resistent TB(C) is a ticking time bomb. CoViD resulting in less immunity protection will result in lots of diseases spreading (and mutating)...TB has to be top of the (long) list...

The "wise thing" in my opinion-to do is monitor for diseases. Increase testing/testing facilities...early warning. The present healthcare labs must be exhausted, may run out of materials for testing...

The sad part of course is governments have given up...start yet another war, push the economy in another crisis (in which the rich get more rich...). Like the climate collapse, the unfolding healthcrisis is able "to kill us all" within years...

End of part 1, in part 2 a look at twitter...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2022 at 11:17pm

part 2, 








My thought exactly. The current core inflationary burst was as sudden & violent as post-1966. None of the underlying problems causing it is solved, they're getting worse: forever-COVID labor shortages, geopolitics instability + underinvestment energy, globalization in reverse...

DJ, if people find it hard to pay for energy, normal groceries...are they willing/able to pay extra for health insurance ? Are governments-starting another insane war-willing to provide extra money for better healthcare ? 

You need an economy to have healthcare...By "protecting the economy" , "freedom" we did destroy that economy...The economic means to deal with a growing number of healthcrises only become available if you "tax the rich"...but well they "buy politics/media"....so things will have to get a lot worse...

History repeats itself...1776/1789 US/French revolution were the outcome of massive inequality..."let them eat cake" may have been a myth...but an elite unable to understand the average citizen may be the basis for other revolutions...

We get another round of CoViD vaccines...well more is needed to stop this pandemic ! A better strategy...but the present "elite" will not bring "new ways"...

Some updated figures on growth advantage of some SARS-CoV2 variants of concern, inferred from  data. Omicron subvariant BA.2.75 intent on becoming dominant in parts of Asia & Oceania, but BA.4.6 causing some competition in Europe, the Middle East & North America

DJ, I would want to make the claim that we no longer know what variants are doing what...A lot of a-symptomatic (early) spread could see an increase of "chronc/long CoViD" later on...Lack of testing may give false perspectives...Yes BA.2.75, BA.4.6 look mean...but we would need much more widespread testing & sequencing -also in population not showing symptoms- to get a better view...

Animal spread must be "high" by now as well..."the big picture is bad"...








Mainland #China reports 623 local symptomatic cases and 1844 asymptomatic cases on August 13.🔼 --- #Hainan 494 + 846🔽 #Tibet 59 + 443🔼 #Xinjiang 2 + 396🔼 #Zhejiang 24 + 42🔼 #Jiangxi 10 + 39🔼 --- Source: NHC

DJ, China still going for massive testing...massive NPI...it can be done...(but in China government is running healthcare...in the west "all for profit"  massive testing is much more expensive...). 

A 50-year-old Croatian journalist died yesterday after a 4-day battle with #COVID. Despite being diagnosed with Sjögren's syndrome, doctors refused to hospitalize him & ambulance refused to take him to the hospital because "he has "normal" COVID symptoms".

-

There was no monoclonal treatment or Paxlovid available for him. The trigger for hospitalization was low oxygenation & breathing difficulties. Once he got those, an ambulance came but it was too late. His partner documented their horrors & anyone interested can translate it.

-

The journalist's employer http://index.hr published his post-mortem examination. The autopsy report is in Croatian but it also has official diagnoses in Latin. Look at all the damage that SARS2 caused across his body. Even Omicron: pneumonia, oedema cerebri, thromboses...

DJ...somehow the story is "CoViD is not that bad"...an insane claim...

U.S. COVID update: - New cases: 126,641 - Average: 105,129 (-2,804) - States reporting: 33/50 - In hospital: 41,949 (-518) - In ICU: 4,855 (-24) - New deaths: 585 - Average: 486 (+5)

In the US the CDC just giving up...only will cause exponential growth of disease; more Covid cases but also more other diseases...it will become a "very hard winter" ...(both in the US, Europe and lots of other places...). 

DJ-Also tweets on excess deaths at record level (Spain, Italy, UK)...part of it by CoViD (not recognized as CoViD because people died later then 28 days after a first positive test)...however the "main problem" on the long run is "chronic CoViD"....

Some "focus" on Case-Fatality-Ratio claiming "CoViD is just a flu"...simply ignore the numbers; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table CoViD killing over 2,000 people per day with a lot of underreporting...

DJ-Long/Chronic CoViD must be affecting "hundreds of millions" of people...Decrease of immunity does "open the doors" for all kinds of other diseases...









Absolutely- there've been *only* ~13,700 deaths from COVID in the US since BA.5 became dominant. We should be striving to normalise this by comparing to previous waves rather than 'scaremongering'. Most of these people are old, vulnerable, poor, black/brown or disabled anyway...

DJ...a lot of people dying from CoViD are NOT old, weak, BA.5 is "just another wave"...schools/workplaces reopening, later on fall/winter "should be a major worry"....

So ! Protect yourself ! Masks, social distancing do help...limit travels...YOU decide on that ! I am NOT an expert, just making up my mind on the risks and what I can do about it...I did get vaccinated 4 times...(2x Pfizer, 2x booster Moderna)  but a lot of people never had a chance to get a vaccine...

To much discussion-I think-about vaccines...Non Pharma Interventions should be top-priority now with also many other diseases spreading...

I find myself repeating points...

Stay safe & sane ! End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2022 at 10:37pm

DJ, 

I think there is a point in massive CoViD numbers resulting in less human immunity opening the door to other diseases...Monkeypox could maybe seen as an example for that...However Polio has been detected in sewage in several places but polio-infections seem to remain even lower then expected...[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/scientists-anticipate-that-tuberculosis-will-the-next-global-health-crisis-as-new-antibiotic-resistance-genes-have-been-identified[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/scientists-anticipate-that-tuberculosis-will-the-next-global-health-crisis-as-new-antibiotic-resistance-genes-have-been-identified ...how will a possible lower human immunity translate in TB(C)?  Or was monkeypox (MPX) just an exception?


What variant will take over for BA.5 in the United States and why does it matter? It's currently between a BA.4/5 vs BA.2 subvariant


Image


DJ, how the CoViD pandemic further will develop is another big question. Maybe 2,000 to 3,000 CoViD deaths (within 28 days) worldwide is now seen as acceptable ? 

-I expect CoViD deaths number in the coming winter to increase again; 20,000-30,000 per day...Will we then get restrictions again ? 

-Excess deaths are alarmingly high in many places/ages...A lot of people may die of complications of CoViD-stay out of the CoViD-numbers..

-Long/chronic CoViD is already at disaster-level

-You also have to look at risks for more deathly CoViD, other diseases...

But for now most governments go for "freedom" "economy" ...they mean greed and profits...

[url]https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1558868407000317952[/url] or https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1558868407000317952 discussing some widespread Omicron variants...and their mutations...Problem is the number of potential mutations in the corona-virus runs in the billions...So if some mutations "run out of steam" other mutations will get more dominant...(and get their own name/number "BA.something"....

How to stop this ? The way that is choosen is vaccines...anti-virals..."Big Pharma" (profits)...my problem with that is that not stopping the spread-vaccines only made the virus "more clever"...We may be getting deeper into the swamp-not out of it...

To compare it with "climate plans"; closing powerplants that still could produce power for decades and replacing them with "green energy" may at the end result in more climate damage...Windturbines, solar panels, production/transport also is a burden for the enviroment...

Replacing "old" cars with "e-cars" electric ones...is NOT green ! It is fooling oneself...Like buying trees so one can keep flying...tress will compensate it...

A lot of "climate plans" "reduce growth"of CO2 emission..Vaccines may limit disease...not stop the spread...








By now we know SARSCoV2 can infect the brain. In fact if it weren't for the fact that patients usually die of acute respiratory syndrome (the ARS) or multi-organ failure, we might recognize SARSCoV2 as having caused the biggest encephalitis epidemic to date.

DJ..CoViD is NOT (just) a "lung-virus"...the respitory system is the place of entry...so we see a lot of infections there...But ACE2 (and other) receptors are all over the body...

Statistics may indicate men are more likely to die from CoViD, women may see more chronic disease after CoViD-infections...








We need to understand these findings in better context of all infection-associated chronic diseases, so please know that we are exploring the fastest possible ways to replicate this work in #MECFS#Lyme and #Dysautonomia in cases unrelated to #COVID. This work is crucial and 4/

2

21

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DJ [url]https://twitter.com/PutrinoLab/status/1558838410135195649[/url] or https://twitter.com/PutrinoLab/status/1558838410135195649 ...DJ lots of diseases have "a chronic phase"; ME-CFS, Lyme-disease but also chronic Q-fever...(Here in NL "doctors" sometimes claim they can not find a body problem so it has to be mental; "Long CoViD" also may be diagnosed as "depression" while the depression may be just one of the symptoms...maybe even the result of not recognizing the disease...). 

So..."living with CoViD' as some "politicians/fools" claim is living with very high risks for severe disease or death...It is already destroying economies...NOT saving them...

To get out of this worsening healthcrisis [url]https://www.wur.nl/en/news-wur/Show/Bird-flu-at-poultry-farms-in-20212022.htm[/url] or https://www.wur.nl/en/news-wur/Show/Bird-flu-at-poultry-farms-in-20212022.htm (recent NL H5N1 cases in poultry/birds) -caused by bad politics-we need politicians that take public health serious...not "politicians-for-sale"...

End of part 1


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 14 2022 at 11:20pm

DJ, 








Puzzled to still see analyses of covid risk, mitigations etc, that do not allow for cumulative impact of reinfections. Treating infection as something that may or may not happen once during an individuals lifetime makes little sense.

Science can go wrong...From "tunnelvision" to "science-for-sale"...DJ-I think in this pandemic science did fail to often...

One of the major mistakes in my non-expert opinion was the "vaccination strategy"...Knowing CoViD vaccines would NOT stop infection, only limiting disease lifting the "restrictions" resulted in immunity evading (sub)variants...Lots of people do get CoViD more then once...risks for "chronic/long CoViD" increases with each infection...

"Breaktrough cases"; getting CoViD after vaccination could result in more severe disease...however if you do not compensate (if possible) for those getting vaccinated earliest/most may be "higher risk" you may not get a realistic picture...In general "vaccines saved lives"...but if the vaccinated run increased risk of long lasting problems after infection you may ask what is the benefit...

In history we had only Non Pharma Interventions...isolation, so the disease could not spread...(of course "blaming people" also was seen a lot in history, "witchcraft/religion" also offered "hope/answers"...).








You asked for it and we created it! We compiled a quick reference list of schools that have any reinstated any level of indoor mask requirements. Thank you all so much for your help in crowdsourcing this information, keep it up, we'd love to add more! https://covidsafecampus.org/masksrequired

DJ, [url]https://www.covidsafecampus.org/masksrequired[/url] or https://www.covidsafecampus.org/masksrequired should be followed in lots of countries...Ventilation discussions in schools often ending in "who will pay for it"...When schools run out of teachers/staff it may be to late to act...

28 July 25 probable cases of severe acute hepatitis of unknown aetiology in Ireland, 2 probable cases underwent liver transplantation; 1 probable case (non-transplant) died.   1/


Image

Of course the hepatitis story-link to CoViD-is far from over..."chronic CoViD" also increasing diabetes risks, hearthproblems etc. In that way CoViD already started/worsened lots of other pandemics...

The claim the adeno-virus did cause the hepatitis simply makes no sense...Adeno-virus could be a co-infection...for that matter one could translate studies also in a way to see how other virusses manage to co-operate with CoViD...[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-study-shows-that-epstein-barr-virus-reactivation-and-low-cortisol-levels-are-common-in-many-long-covid-patients[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-study-shows-that-epstein-barr-virus-reactivation-and-low-cortisol-levels-are-common-in-many-long-covid-patients 

DJ-This pandemic(s) are becoming a "mega-mix" of diseases...Very likely all kinds of virusses, bacteria, fungi, now may "see room" for more spread. 

[url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN doing a lot of work on variants in the US-following some India stories. Also a look at hospital capacity/hospitalizations...

DJ-Lots of countries see healthcare close to a crash...Less HCW-ers, more care needed...governments buying weapons for more wars...

Just like "climate change" now is moving towards a "climate crash" [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nothing-left-pipes-french-towns-rely-water-truck-deliveries-survival[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nothing-left-pipes-french-towns-rely-water-truck-deliveries-survival  political inaction and stupidity is also bringing us a crash in public healthcare...


Beelden zijn soms krachtiger dan cijfers. Sociale ongelijkheid komt veel méér door ongelijke startposities (geluk vs pech: aanleg en hulpbronnen via anderen) en veel mínder door ongelijke inspanningen (eigen inzet) dan vaak wordt aangenomen. 
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Image

DJ...picture is telling the story...When you start "from the basement" you can work very hard...but you will need a lot of luck to "make it"...When you "start near the top" you may be blind for your privilage...The "lower" ones "social position" is the more risks for healthproblems, death...Life expectency is income related...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2022 at 11:29pm

DJ, only time for a "part 1"...

In latest news I did write about Kissinger warning for western foreign policies disasters...DJ-We are moving towards war in East Asia...China will "defend" Taiwan from now on as part of China...Russia will underline the Kuril-Islands are part of Russia since 1945...even if the US/Japan no longer like it...North Korea now being integrated in Russia-China defense talks...South Korea -its industry- may focus on the EurAsia market, 5 billion consumers...

In scenario's I did try to get an overview of risks...because an out-of-control pandemic; resulting in lots of diseases getting out of control (diabetes in post-CoViD patients...hearthproblems, hepatitis, but Monkeypox has to be related to CoViD as well...). 

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/08/arctic-sea-ice-august-2022.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/08/arctic-sea-ice-august-2022.html DJ-Climate change/crash already is very major; affecting food(prices), logistics, watersupply, energy...

It already is "very bad NOW !!!" ...further studies on how things look like in 2053, 2100 miss the point we need effective action NOW !!!

The basic question is; will humanity survive till 2025 ? 2030 ? If so-how ???

The combination of climate collapse-linked with diseases out of control and an increase of all kinds of wars should make more people wonder if "we" will survive the man-made chaos...

It may be an "optimistic" view to claim we spent the money of next generations. We used the raw materials, energy...so leave behind shortages and debts for "our (grand)children"... A more realistic view could be we leave behind a planet turning into another Venus...simply to hot for any live...

On the pandemic; 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/long-covid-two-more-patients-treated-with-experimental-drug-bc-007-see-improvements-in-symptoms/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/long-covid/long-covid-two-more-patients-treated-with-experimental-drug-bc-007-see-improvements-in-symptoms/ there may be some-limited-good news...However if you consider we are talking about possible BILLIONS !!! of infections one has to realize human limits...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/monkeypox-anecdotal-evidence-of-reinfection-within-three-weeks/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/monkeypox-anecdotal-evidence-of-reinfection-within-three-weeks/ ; An anecdotal report from Reddit of someone who may have become reinfected with monkeypox within three weeks of his first infection, although an uncleared persistent infection is also a possibility.

DJ; What I understand is Monkeypox may also develop different variants..Like in CoViD it is also likely the virus may hide/mutate in "its hosts" so what looks like reinfection may be the same virus doing its bad job allover again...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-many-long-covid-19-patients-have-higher-levels-of-circulating-sars-cov-2-viral-rna-compared-to-those-with-acute-infection[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-many-long-covid-19-patients-have-higher-levels-of-circulating-sars-cov-2-viral-rna-compared-to-those-with-acute-infection 

DJ-SARS-2 may now be that widespread we will be unable to ever get rid of it..."Living with the virus" may get another meaning then those we supported that-wrong-idea ever were able to imagine...It means these pandemics may "never end"....








If we look at frequency data we see sustained logistic growth of BA.2.75 in India, Japan, Singapore and the US. Critically, in India it is clearly displacing BA.5. 3/10

and








If we look at variant-specific Rt estimated by , we find initial estimates of Rt of ~1.3 for BA.2.75 in the US, which is greater than BA.5's current Rt of ~1.0, but is lower than BA.5's initial Rt of ~1.6. 5/10

should end any illusions on "this pandemic is over"; it is NOT !!! Only getting worse !

Our ability to deal with the many crisis is eroding away...from hyperinflation to chronic disease...followed by food&watercrises...

Replying to 
My take is that we just concluded the first phase of the pandemic in which almost everyone on Earth was exposed to the SARS2 spike, through infection and/or vaccination. Interesting thing is that the pandemic should have finished when this phase was achieved, yet haven't.

"ḧerd immunity strategy" was wrong from day 1...








Replying to  and 
My guess is regarding the severity we are as good as it gets now, while regarding infections SARS2 will wiggle out & jump to another distant antigenic hill. This non-stop COVID is keeping waves shallower but never-ending, so cumulative damage is not much better, as people think.

at best vaccines can -for now- limit damage...but we are in a race between vaccines and immunity evasion...(with most of the mutations a result of reinfections...a majority of people may NEVER get vaccinated...Those that get vaccinated will get more vaccines...


“Slight change to the language in their guidance” is a nice euphemism for “completely and abruptly removed all mention of the airborne transmission of monkeypox.”

DJ, CDC etc. keep failing to protect public health...just like the IPCC has to go for compromise where there is NO room for compromise...You can NOT make deals with diseases...Climate collapse will not wait for politics/ego's...

Exponential growth may soon show itself as exponential collapse...

Of course I am NOT an expert...just making my mind up...

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DJ, My view on "global events"...

-In Latest news-Nuclear war, we are moving towards such a nuclear war scenario high speed...The US is seeking confrontation with both Russia and China...UK agression is "remarkable"...very likely the UK may have special forces in Crimea/Russia going for sabotage-actions. US intel and longer range weapons may be used to not only attack weapon storage but also nuclear facilities..even in Kursk-Russia...

Beyond insane...

-[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/15/drought-uncovering-10000-year-old-tree-stumps-friesland-lake[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/15/drought-uncovering-10000-year-old-tree-stumps-friesland-lake extreme drought is affecting logistics, power production, harvests and even building...with cement, sand transports getting hard and expensive...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/european-gas-prices-could-climb-a-further-60[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/european-gas-prices-could-climb-a-further-60 and [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/17/dutch-economy-recorded-strong-growth-second-quarter-despite-inflation[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/17/dutch-economy-recorded-strong-growth-second-quarter-despite-inflation DJ-My impression is a lot of people spending money now they can...During lockdown/restrictions spending went down/savings went up...If you look at groceries prices went up 18,5% in NL year-to-year...so even "good investments" may not bring enough compensations...Spending goes up...with more and more money going also to energy...A ticking time-bomb in many countries...Often people pay for energy/water in advance. Once a year the may get money back-if they paid to much...now a lot of people may need savings to pay extra...

-Monkeypox

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory statistics now; This is a table of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in countries and territories during 2022. Countries whose 2022 timeline precede the May 6 index case are shaded orange. The table does not include countries where suspected cases were reported but later discarded.

DJ Five African countries did see MPX-cases before may 6...Of the total 114 deaths 107 deaths were in those 5 countries. Total confirmed cases now moving towards 40,000...

From Wikipedia;

Monkeypox is a viral infection that manifests a week or two after exposure with fever and other non-specific symptoms, and then produces a rash with lesions that usually last for 2–4 weeks before drying up, crusting and falling off.[17] While monkeypox can cause large numbers of lesions, in the current outbreak, some patients experience only a single lesion in the mouth or on the genitals, making it more difficult to differentiate from other infections.[28] In infections before the current outbreak, 1–3 percent of people with known infections have died (without treatment). Cases in children and immunocompromised people are more likely to be severe.[8]

Monkeypox spreads through close, personal, often skin-to-skin contact. The disease can spread through direct contact with rashes, or body fluids from an infected person, by touching objects and fabrics that have been used by someone with monkeypox or through respiratory secretions.[29] Given the unexpected and vast geographical spread of the disease, the actual number of cases is likely to be underestimated.[30] While anyone can get monkeypox, to date the vast majority of confirmed cases outside of the endemic regions in Africa occurred in young or middle-aged men who have sex with men (MSM) who had recent sexual contact with new or multiple partners.[31][32] On 28 July, the WHO Director-General advised MSM to limit exposure by reducing the number of sexual partners, reconsidering sex with new partners, and maintaining contact details to allow for epidemiological follow-up.[33] The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has emphasized the importance of reducing stigma in communicating about the demographic aspects of monkeypox, specifically with regards to gay and bisexual men.[34]


Monkeypox is an infectious viral disease that can occur in humans and some other animals.[35] Symptoms include feverswollen lymph nodes, and a rash that forms blisters and then crusts over.[35] The time from exposure to onset of symptoms ranges from five to twenty-one days.[36][37] The duration of symptoms is typically two to four weeks.[37] There may be mild symptoms, and it may occur without any symptoms being known.[36][38] The classic presentation of fever and muscle pains, followed by swollen glands, with lesions all at the same stage, has not been found to be common to all outbreaks.[35][39] Cases may be severe, especially in children, pregnant women or people with suppressed immune systems.[40]

The disease is caused by the monkeypox virus, a zoonotic virus in the genus Orthopoxvirus. The variola virus, the causative agent of smallpox, is also in this genus.[41] Of the two types in humans, clade II (formerly West African clade)[42] causes a less severe disease than the Central African (Congo basin) type.[43] It may spread from infected animals by handling infected meat or via bites or scratches.[44] Human-to-human transmission can occur through exposure to infected body fluids or contaminated objects, by small droplets, and possibly through the airborne route.[35][44] People can spread the virus from the onset of symptoms until all the lesions have scabbed and fallen off; with some evidence of spread for more than a week after lesions have crusted.[43] Diagnosis can be confirmed by testing a lesion for the virus's DNA.[45]

There is no known cure.[46] A study in 1988 found that the smallpox vaccine was around 85% protective in preventing infection in close contacts and in lessening the severity of the disease.[47] A newer smallpox and monkeypox vaccine based on modified vaccinia Ankara has been approved, but with limited availability.[36] Other measures include regular hand washing and avoiding sick people and animals.[48] Antiviral drugscidofovir and tecovirimatvaccinia immune globulin and the smallpox vaccine may be used during outbreaks.[49][50] The illness is usually mild and most of those infected will recover within a few weeks without treatment.[50] Estimates of the risk of death vary from 1% to 10%, although few deaths as a consequence of monkeypox have been recorded since 2017.[51

The UK Human Animal Infections and Risk Surveillance (HAIRS) group[71] warned that the virus could reach wildlife and become endemic as a result.[72][73] There is a concern that if the ongoing outbreak is prolonged, it "could establish new ecological niches in wild animals" in regions outside of Africa.[68]

Scientists are investigating circulating lineages (and potential variants) of the MPX virus and are comparing them against the African endemic lineages.

DJ [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/monkeypox-87-of-household-samples-contaminated/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/monkeypox-87-of-household-samples-contaminated/

Of the 31 environmental swab samples collected by the CDC from the property of a person infected with monkeypox, 87% were still contaminated with the virus after 15 days.

In July 2021, we conducted environmental sampling at the residence of a person in Dallas, Texas, USA, who had travel-associated human West African monkeypox virus (MPXV-WA). Targeted environmental swab sampling was conducted 15 days after the person who had monkeypox left the household.

-

These findings indicate that porous surfaces (e.g., bedding, clothing) may pose more of a MPXV exposure risk than nonporous surfaces (e.g., metal, plastic). Viable MPXV was detected on household surfaces after at least 15 days. However, low titers (<102 PFU) indicate a limited potential for indirect transmission.

CDC: Environmental Persistence of Monkeypox Virus on Surfaces in Household of Person with Travel-Associated Infection, Dallas, Texas, USA, 2021

and [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/french-researchers-finds-monkeypox-virus-in-anorectal-samples-of-gay-men-who-were-asymptomatic[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/french-researchers-finds-monkeypox-virus-in-anorectal-samples-of-gay-men-who-were-asymptomatic  link to [url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.04.22277226v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.04.22277226v1 ;

Abstract

Background Monkeypox is transmitted by close contact with symptomatic cases, and those infected are assumed to be uniformly symptomatic. Evidence of subclinical monkeypox infection is limited to a few immunological studies which found evidence of immunity against orthopoxviruses in asymptomatic individuals who were exposed to monkeypox cases. We aimed to assess whether asymptomatic infections occurred among individuals who underwent sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening in a large Belgian STI clinic around the start of the 2022 monkeypox epidemic in Belgium.

Methods Anorectal and oropharyngeal swabs collected for gonorrhoea/chlamydia screening from May 1 until May 31, 2022 were retrospectively tested by a monkeypox-specific PCR. Cases with a positive PCR result were recalled to the clinic for case investigation, repeat testing and contact tracing.

Findings In stored samples from 224 men, we identified three cases with a positive anorectal monkeypox PCR. All three men denied having had any symptoms in the weeks before and after the sample was taken. None of them reported exposure to a diagnosed monkeypox case, nor did any of their contacts develop clinical monkeypox. Follow-up samples were taken 21 to 37 days after the initial sample, by which time the monkeypox-specific PCR was negative, likely as a consequence of spontaneous clearance of the infection.

Interpretation The existence of asymptomatic monkeypox infection indicates that the virus might be transmitted to close contacts in the absence of symptoms. Our findings suggest that identification and isolation of symptomatic individuals may not suffice to contain the outbreak.

DJ In this-may 2022- study 3 out of 224 persons may have had a-symptomatic MPX...IF MPX (MonkeyPoX) can spread without any (major) symptoms (also via surface/aerosols) there will be a lot of unnoticed spread...

In CoViD 600 million confirmed cases did cause over 6 million deaths...CFR around 1%...If you would go for an indication on MPX...close to 40,000 cases result in 114 deaths so far -if you include the 5 African countries with pre may-6 spread...(otherwise it would be so far 7 confirmed deaths..) 

The problem however may be in co-infections...CoViD and MPX...just a matter of time...with also a flu-season, other diseases, the combination of factors may be problematic...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 17 2022 at 2:54am

DJ, 

Just like you can discuss what present conflict may be most high risk; I would go for the Taiwan conflict...because it has a lot of other conflicts linked-Korea, Japan...The chances of China-Russia-North Korea...all three nuclear states-ending up in conflict with the US and UK are much higher. Europe may want to "move out" of the Ukraine war...go for a deal in wich Poland, Hungary, Romania get parts of western Ukraine...Maybe even a "Kiev-Ukraine" could join the "west", with most of Ukraine included in Russia...

The Taiwan conflict includes also conflicts on the South China Sea, Kuril Islands, Korean reunification and Arctic-China links...

In the present pandemics wich diseases bring what risks ? 

-CoViD some claim may be contained with (new) vaccines...Living with CoViD could mean living with 400,000 to 600,000 CoViD deaths each year...Acceptable in some peoples idea...I think totally unrealistic...

-MPX/MonkeyPoX....some models expect 1 million confirmed cases by november...The-WRONG !!!-idea is most cases are related to gay-sex...We may be out of that initial phase by now...

-TB(C) -certainly multi resistant forms- do get mentioned...another ticking time bomb since HIV-AIDS...

-Polio...detected in several sewage-samples...so far however very limited cases...

-Flu...either H3N2-now again widespread in swine...H5N1 at pandemic levels in lots of birds (with limited spread to fox, cats etc. eating those birds). H5N6 limited spread most in China...

-Other diseases (Marburg, Ebola, Plague...etc.) So far however cases that show up remain limited to one region and limited cases...

An idea is that massive spread of CoViD did weaken (human) immunity...however the Polio-story may undermine that idea...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table may be doing its best to follow CoViD cases...often countries have more then one agency reporting numbers...So "statistics" at best may give "very limited indications"....

Due to lack of testing and a/pre symptomatic spread lots of cases of both CoViD and MPX are missed...

DJ-The MAIN PROBLEM !!!! may be a MIX of diseases co-infecting hosts...possibly even resulting in new infectious diseases...all kind of insane mix/recombinations never seen before...

-On CoViD;








Largely through partial immune escape, lineage BA.5 viruses resulted in sizable epidemics throughout much of the world. However, in most countries these epidemics are now beginning to wind down. What do we expect after BA.5? 1/10

-

However, the rate of logistic growth of BA.2.75 is lower than initially seen for BA.5, where BA.2.75's initial rate of growth in the US is 0.07 per day compared to BA.5's 0.14 per day estimated on May 28. 4/10

-

So, if we could halt further evolution of the virus, we'd expect that BA.2.75 would globally displace BA.5, but do so relatively slowly, over the course of months and drive modest epidemics while doing so. 8/10

-

However, during these months there will likely emerge sub-lineages of BA.5 bearing additional mutations that make these viruses more competitive. And so the "winning" variant will be the one that happens to collect the right mutations and generate a highly fit subvariant. 9/10

-

These analyses of BA.2.75 relied on open data sharing from scientists in India, Japan, Singapore and the US. We're still seeing remarkable evolution of SARS-CoV-2 with new variants emerging and spreading rapidly making continued global genomic surveillance essential. 10/10

DJ...in other words BA.2.75 is "finding it hard" to replace BA.5 subvariants...Leaving room for other (BA.5 ?) variants to show up...

Raj Rajnarayanan

@RajlabN
 · 
Where are we headed in the next few weeks? A long ugly wave ahead with a Q, Q/R (transition) and R-phase Q-phase propelled by S:L452Q/S704L (BA.2.12.1) R-phase propelled by S:L452R/F486V (BA.4/5) There is still time.. get #Boosted and #MaskUp twitter.com/RajlabN/status…

DJ; Mutations matter...can make the difference...








U.S. COVID update: - New cases: 129,964 - Average: 102,729 (-1,590) - States reporting: 31/50 - In hospital: 41,170 (+130) - In ICU: 4,908 (+55) - New deaths: 345 - Average: 482 (+2)

A look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table has the US (augustus 16) with 54,190 new cases, 262 deaths...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ ....

In the UK [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time self-reporting symptoms decrease is slowing down at just over 1,9 million UK cases reporting symptoms...

[url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps is reporting very high (10-15%) excess deaths in Spain, in part also heatwave related...Germany and Italy report high excess deaths 7-10% above "normal"...(also heatwave links...). Several countries reporting "low excess deaths" 2-4% above normal...DJ-Some countries may be faster in reporting numbers then others...

5 days postpartum and me and my newborn both have Covid because a family member assured me that they just had “allergies” after they came to see her and held her in the hospital. I’m worried as fuck about my baby, she’s literally only 5 days old and did not deserve this

DJ....some people tend to take disease not that serious...I think a lot of people DO take diseases very serious...still not acting like they did pre-pandemic. In that way limiting spread...but it is not enough to get out of this worsening crisis...

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 17 2022 at 10:49pm

DJ, 

I do not know what to think of this story; [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-measles-virus-spreading-in-zimbabwe-and-afghanistan-that-is-causing-deaths-in-children-is-a-new-genotype-never-identified-before[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-measles-virus-spreading-in-zimbabwe-and-afghanistan-that-is-causing-deaths-in-children-is-a-new-genotype-never-identified-before Claim is a "new kind of measles" is spreading (since may) in parts of Africa and West Asia giving also a lot of brain damage...killing already hundreds of children...limited spread in adults...Very likely to spread further...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-a-thru-h/childhood-diseases/measles/948441-zimbabwe-2022-measles[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-a-thru-h/childhood-diseases/measles/948441-zimbabwe-2022-measles ;

Source: https://www.voanews.com/a/children-s...-/6704160.html


More Than 150 Children Dead in Zimbabwe Measles Outbreak
August 16, 2022 4:57 PM
Agence France-Presse

A measles outbreak in Zimbabwe has killed at least 157 children, with more than 2,000 infections reported across the country, the government said Tuesday.

Cases have been growing rapidly in the southern African nation since authorities said the first infection was logged earlier this month, with reported deaths almost doubling in less than a week.

"As of 15 August, the cumulative figure across the country has risen to 2,056 cases and 157 deaths," Information Minister Monica Mutsvangwa said, briefing journalists after a weekly Cabinet meeting...

 The global focus now is at MPX......I put this also in latest news...

[url]https://www.newzimbabwe.com/measles-outbreak-death-toll-now-150-children-as-cases-reach-2000/[/url] or https://www.newzimbabwe.com/measles-outbreak-death-toll-now-150-children-as-cases-reach-2000/“It has been noted that most cases have not received vaccination to protect against measles. Government has invoked the Civil Protection Unit Act to deal with this emergency,” Mutsvangwa said.

Measles is very infectious...R0 can be over 200....DJ-STOP THE SPREAD !!!

Why we combine a global health crisis with free travel around the globe for all kinds of diseases ? I fail to understand that !

Of course a combination of diseases will most likely not only worsen the outcome but may even result in new diseases never seen before...If there is indeed a new form of measles one has to relate that to CoViD...One aspect is the CoViD pandemic slowed down vaccinations against measles, polio..

Another aspect may be increased vulnerability for some other diseases due to CoViD (asymptomatic even..) infection...MPX is now "out of control"...somehow Polio does not spread..

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/india/india-100-rise-in-delhis-covid-hospitalisations-in-14-days/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/india/india-100-rise-in-delhis-covid-hospitalisations-in-14-days/ ;

Covid hospitalizations in Delhi have nearly doubled in the last two weeks, and the positivity rate is nearing 20%. During the last 24 hours, 4775 tests were conducted in Delhi, of which 917 were positive.

Indian Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia has said that 90% per cent of Covid-19 patients were double vaccinated.

ICU admissions are at the highest peak for weeks, and patients on oxygen and on ventilator support are also increasing.

BA.2.75 has been dominant in the Indian capital for more than two weeks, and the apparent increase in pathogenicity is beginning to cause concern in medical circles.

DJ...the impression seems to be BA.2.75 has a hard time replacing BA.5 subvariants more widespread in Europe, America...If that is "good news" we have to find out...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/vaccine/pfizer-biontech/preprint-serious-adverse-events-of-special-interest-following-mrna-vaccination-in-randomized-trials/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/vaccine/pfizer-biontech/preprint-serious-adverse-events-of-special-interest-following-mrna-vaccination-in-randomized-trials/ ;

“The excess risk of serious adverse events of special interest surpassed the risk reduction for COVID-19 hospitalization relative to the placebo group in both Pfizer and Moderna trials.”.

Results: Pfizer and Moderna mRNA COVID-19 vaccines were associated with an increased risk of serious adverse events of special interest, with an absolute risk increase of 10.1 and 15.1 per 10,000 vaccinated over placebo baselines of 17.6 and 42.2 (95% CI -0.4 to 20.6 and -3.6 to 33.8), respectively. Combined, the mRNA vaccines were associated with an absolute risk increase of serious adverse events of special interest of 12.5 per 10,000 (95% CI 2.1 to 22.9).

The excess risk of serious adverse events of special interest surpassed the risk reduction for COVID-19 hospitalization relative to the placebo group in both Pfizer and Moderna trials (2.3 and 6.4 per 10,000 participants, respectively).

Preprint: Serious Adverse Events of Special Interest Following mRNA Vaccination in Randomized Trials

A regional director who was employed at the research organisation Ventavia Research Group has told The BMJ that the company falsified data, unblinded patients, employed inadequately trained vaccinators, and was slow to follow up on adverse events reported in Pfizer’s pivotal phase III trial. Staff who conducted quality control checks were overwhelmed by the volume of problems they were finding. After repeatedly notifying Ventavia of these problems, the regional director, Brook Jackson, emailed a complaint to the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Ventavia fired her later the same day. Jackson has provided The BMJ with dozens of internal company documents, photos, audio recordings, and emails.

BMJ: Covid-19: Researcher blows the whistle on data integrity issues in Pfizer’s vaccine trial

DJ...looking at statistics one could claim vaccines reduced CoViD deaths...however "statistics" can be misleading...A "CoViD death" definition-as far as I know (not an expert at all !) is dying within 28 days after a positive CoViD test...If vaccines result in people dying later..only buying time..."CoViD deaths statistics would go down" 

I think "Long/chronic CoViD" by now may be the major problem...People suffering with often very serious healthissues...maybe for years...often without any help available. 

If CoViD vaccines are unsafe what did governments do to protect their citizens ? There is a gap between "far from perfect" and "ineffective"...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for august 17 reported 842,375 new cases, 2,495 deaths...with lots of under reporting..or simply a stop on reporting/testing...Denial as a policy...

End of part 1 COFFEE !!!!

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 17 2022 at 11:43pm

DJ, 

When I look at history [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Netherland[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Netherland the British did take over "Nieuw Nederland" in 1664..called the Dutch "YanKees" (Dutch names Jan, Kees...possible Janneke...womans name)...in 1776 "YanKees" did tell the British to "go home"...

The French revolution spread to NL in 1795..."restauration" restored the old-anti democratic-order...in 1815. But "Liberty, Equality, Brotherhood-seeds" did start a democratic trend later on in the 19th century...

[url]http://thesaker.is/the-second-coming-of-the-heartland/[/url] or http://thesaker.is/the-second-coming-of-the-heartland/

Financialization of everything means total marketization of Life itself. In his latest book, No-Cosas: Quiebras del Mundo de Hoy (in Spanish, no English translation yet), the foremost German contemporary philosopher (Byung-Chul Han, who happens to be Korean), analyzes how Information Capitalism, unlike industrial capitalism, converts also the immaterial into merchandise: “Life itself acquires the form of merchandise (…) the difference between culture and commerce disappears. Institutions of culture are presented as profitable brands.”

The most toxic consequence is that “total commercialization and mercantilization of culture had the effect of destroying the community (…) Community as merchandise is the end of community.”

DJ If "everything is for sale nothing has real value"....Total capitalism is a disaster in itself...

The present pandemics have to be related to "profit as the only value" in (neo-liberal) "politics"...SARS-1 was stopped in 2003...Governments did their job then...travel was restricted in time...Of course 2019 had some differences...but in january 2020 early action by governments could have stopped this pandemic...

But governments failed over and over...all kinds of variants, diseases have "free travel" in many countries..."Freedom without responsability is anarchy, chaos...". Not in public interest but only in the interest of a small group...

-We are slowly moving out of a heatwave here in NW Europe...even some rain in places. Helping to control wildfires...Of course the big picture is "bad"; Climate collapse may be to far to stop major damage...

Confirmed CoViD cases are moving towards the 600 million, MPX confirmed cases 40,000+ in Africa/Asia measles-in a new form ??? -may be "tens-of-thousends" of cases...very likely to spread further. 

The pandemics are also "to far to stop major damage"...

Wars for the moment seem to be escalating further...but economic pain may force countries to "change positions" (not only EU-countries but also Taiwan, South Korea...). 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/17/dutch-economy-recorded-strong-growth-second-quarter-despite-inflation[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/17/dutch-economy-recorded-strong-growth-second-quarter-despite-inflation ...people now can spent money...less restrictions...inflation is higher then investment gains...

-Twitter;








“Some studies suggest that the risk of cardiovascular problems, such as a heart attack or stroke, remains high even many months after a SARS-CoV-2 infection clears up.”

link [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02074-3[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02074-3 ; Some studies suggest that the risk of cardiovascular problems, such as a heart attack or stroke, remains high even many months after a SARS-CoV-2 infection clears up. Researchers are starting to pin down the frequency of these issues and what is causing the damage.

-








Covid-19 survivors remain at higher risk of psychotic disorders, dementia and similar conditions for at least two years, according to a large study that highlights the mounting burden of chronic illness left in the pandemic’s wake

-








“The #LongCovid blood samples were also awash with a category of ‘exhausted’ T cells.. Such cells surge in the ongoing presence of pathogens—suggesting ‘the bodies of people with Long Covid are actively fighting something,’  says.”

DJ...It took decades to get some estimates on the Spanish Flu...even the timing is point of discussion; wide-1917-1923 or narrow 1918...20 or 100 million people got killed ? On CoViD one only can start getting a realistic picture AFTER the pandemic...we are still in the middle of it in many ways...








“To ⁦⁩ surprise, it was quite challenging to find people who fully recovered from COVID. Many post–COVID-19 volunteers described themselves as healthy but admitted, for example, their once-normal gym workouts were too exhausting to resume”

One may wonder if damage is that major we never fully will recover...combination with climate collapse, wars may hinder a realistic view. 








My cousin had to return to in-person work, got COVID from her boss, and passed away today. She leaves behind 13-year old twin girls, a husband, a mother who will now have to bury her last surviving child, and family who will forever miss her smile. The pandemic is not over.

...........no words........

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding with lots of tweets on lack of vaccines, slow/no reaction...CDC doing a bad job...again...etc. 

End of part 2...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 19 2022 at 12:05am

DJ, 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/covid-19-censorship/the-preprint-review-that-twitter-doesnt-want-you-to-read/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/covid-19-censorship/the-preprint-review-that-twitter-doesnt-want-you-to-read/ ;

For the second time in three months, we find ourselves reporting that Twitter is trying to limit discourse on its platform by suspending a user account that has linked to genuine scientific research.

Here, we provide a link to a Medpage review of a scientific preprint that Twitter would apparently prefer you didn’t read.

The Medpage review is titled “Post-COVID Neurologic, Psychiatric Symptoms May Persist for 2 Years – Risk profiles, trajectories vary for children and adults”,

An extract from the review reads: “COVID-19 is associated with increased risks of neurological and psychiatric sequelae in the weeks and months thereafter. How long these risks remain, whether they affect children and adults similarly, and whether SARS-CoV-2 variants differ in their risk profiles remains unclear.”

The full article can be read here by subscribers 

The Medpage article is simply a review of a Lancet preprint entitled “Neurological and psychiatric risk trajectories after SARS-CoV-2 infection: an analysis of 2-year retrospective cohort studies including 1 284 437 patients, which can be found here“.

Quite why Twitter feels it is entitled to suspend accounts for mentioning a review that simply refers to a scientific preprint is something for them to answer, but, sadly, we are duty-bound to report that this isn’t the first time this sort of thing has happened….

Lancet preprint – Neurological and psychiatric risk trajectories after SARS-CoV-2 infection: an analysis of 2-year retrospective cohort studies including 1 284 437 patients

And; 








If you’ve recently had a factual tweet about the dangers of COVID or monkeypox removed or your account threatened feel free to DM me screenshots or a link. Would love to get to the bottom of this

DJ, Censorship on social media is a major problem. There should be clear rules-everything within the (national) laws allowed expression in a different public way should also be allowed on social media...Social media blocking science reports (a Lancet preprint study !!!) has to ask itself what their goal is....[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-of-over-1-2-million-post-covid-19-individuals-shows-that-neurological-and-psychiatric-issues-still-manifest-in-many-even-after-two-years[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-of-over-1-2-million-post-covid-19-individuals-shows-that-neurological-and-psychiatric-issues-still-manifest-in-many-even-after-two-years 

same study...After two years lots of CoViD-cases still have major neurological, psychiatric, problems...DJ-Like the infection did lasting damage a.o. in the brain....

This is the Tweet of the Day (I'm glad I helped). By the 60-day metric, ALL 3 years (20, 21, 22) are running at 210-220 deaths per day on average. Almost no change at all, despite 99% seropositivity, multiple vaccinations, boosters & Omicrons but no NPIs. Riddle me this, experts.

and 

Nicolas Chavez

@Atipico1996
 · 
England’s daily average of COVID deaths (60 days metric) per year: 
2022: 212 
2021: 216 
2020: 203 
We haven’t learned to live with COVID. Over 200 daily deaths are still too much. It means approximately 75.000 yearly deaths.

DJ, since autumn/winter has often lots of cases the average for 2022 will go up...AGAIN; STOP THE SPREAD !

Non Pharma Interventions make more sense then mass vaccinations wich do not stop the spread ! At the end "saving the economy" will destroy (further) that economy...


U.S. COVID update: Daily average drops below 100K - New cases: 117,519 - Average: 99,613 (-1,898) - States reporting: 37/50 - In hospital: 41,138 (+250) - In ICU: 4,801 (-19) - New deaths: 786 - Average: 477 (+2)


[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table has US; 68,979 cases, 264 deaths BNO numbers tend to be both much higher and likely more realistic...

UK [url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time on august 17 1,870,000 people report symptoms...On june 4 the lowest point for 2022 was 1,6 million UK citizens self-reporting symptoms...November 2021 did see numbers for the UK close to 1 million...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory confirmed global cases almost 41,000 (US 14,048...other countries may do worse in testing/reporting...). Real number 10x the reported number ? Lots of asymptomatic spread, long incubation, very limited testing/reporting...

Replying to 
How is the number of new cases determined nowadays? Positive rapid tests are not reported. Last I knew, reinfections "don't count" unless reinfection occurs within/outside some random amount of time. Basically "don't ask, don't tell."

Statistics at best give indications...lots of statistics may provide a better view; excess deaths, sick leave, duration of sick leave, vacancies, hospital/ICU numbers...








TV Shows with “A list” talent are demanding more testing than even in 2021. They also don’t want Antigen. They want lab based PCR 3x per week and rapid PCR or molecular on the other days. How did Hollywood stars become smarter than most doctors about infectious disease testing?

Indeed...why the CDC etc. simply fail to deal with this pandemic ???

It'sME(Jaime)

@exceedhergrasp1
 · 
Apparently, @TwitterSupport is freezing people's accounts for tweeting research studies, now. Hey, @Medscape, were you aware that your scholarly article is being labeled "COVID disinformation" and that sharing it is apparently a bannable offense?

DJ...I often wonder why I keep posting here..I think a lot of people welcome as good as possible info...Science does not bring clear answers...sometimes studies make no sense because of errors...but I believe in "step-by-step"learning...

However if "politics" end up with fools claiming snow in their town means "there is no climate change" ; denial of problems getting most of the votes "stupid is winning"...

I am not an expert but I do believe travel restrictions, stopping mass events limit spread...that is NOT "rocket science"  but basic logics...Somehow "our leaders" choose to ignore such basic things...

End of part 1...limited new news...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2022 at 2:17am

DJ, Limited "new news";

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/influenza-a-h3n2-v-novel-strain/956982-cdc-confirms-another-human-infection-with-flu-virus-from-pigs-in-oregon-h1n2v[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/influenza-a-h3n2-v-novel-strain/956982-cdc-confirms-another-human-infection-with-flu-virus-from-pigs-in-oregon-h1n2v deserves attention...may show up in other places

[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/08/articles/animals/dogs/what-to-do-with-monkeypox-exposed-pets/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/08/articles/animals/dogs/what-to-do-with-monkeypox-exposed-pets/ 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory including suspected cases now moving towards 50,000...real numbers must be much higher..








I’m still astonished at the fact that, despite the wealth of evidence showing the long-term health risks from even ‘mild’ cases of Covid, as a country we have just shrugged, accepted mass infection, and acted as if the still-cautious among us are the *odd* ones. It’s madness.

and








U.S. COVID update: Daily cases drop 7 days in a row - New cases: 115,882 - Average: 97,030 (-2,583) - States reporting: 32/50 - In hospital: 40,845 (-293) - In ICU: 4,772 (-29) - New deaths: 550 - Average: 463 (-14)

DJ [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global picture may indicate we are moving out of the "summer wave"...In Australia and New Zealand-winter there-cases also going down. There are 41 countries reporting an increase of cases, 45 report an increase of deaths. Often deaths-numbers higher then cases-numbers may indicate moving out of a wave...people first need to get infected before they die from a disease...

But testing/reporting is a very major problem...









Yes, of course- it's the lockdown from *18 months ago*, NOT the progressive devastation of the NHS through underfunding, COVID, staff shortages (Brexit, hostile environment, COVID, long COVID), or chronic effects of SARS-CoV-2 on health - which we allowed to infect millions.

DJ; Some "media" also in denial on climate change claim lockdowns kill, virus/disease does not kill...

[url]https://twitter.com/mpxv_lineages/status/1560549155109572609[/url] or https://twitter.com/mpxv_lineages/status/1560549155109572609 several subvariants also of Monkeypox (MPX)

No further news on Polio or measles yet...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/houston-study-shows-that-sars-cov-2-infections-results-in-decreased-myocardial-blood-flow,-affecting-cardiovascular-health-in-many-with-long-covid[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/houston-study-shows-that-sars-cov-2-infections-results-in-decreased-myocardial-blood-flow,-affecting-cardiovascular-health-in-many-with-long-covid yet another study indicating CoViD may cause-a.o.-hearthproblems...

That is it for today...will be another sunny dry day here in NL...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/20/temperatures-rise-back-towards-30-degrees-next-week-drought-will-likely-continue[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/20/temperatures-rise-back-towards-30-degrees-next-week-drought-will-likely-continue 

From shipping to energy, risk of wildfires, for NL this drought may become the worst one in history...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/18/healthcare-unions-issue-ultimatum-long-covid-compensation[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/08/18/healthcare-unions-issue-ultimatum-long-covid-compensation will be an issue in many countries...

Stay safe & sane !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2022 at 10:28pm

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-working-out-to-become-even-fitter/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/sars-cov-2-working-out-to-become-even-fitter/

If you had any doubt about just how dedicated SARS-CoV-2 is to its goal of becoming ever fitter, check out the incredible cryo-electron tomography shots and accompanying diagrams in this new Science article.

Science: Intermediates in SARS-CoV-2 spike–mediated cell entry

and

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/children/research-sars-cov-2-viral-rnas-and-spike-protein-detected-in-stools-of-newborn-infants/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/children/research-sars-cov-2-viral-rnas-and-spike-protein-detected-in-stools-of-newborn-infants/ ;

“Despite negative SARS CoV-2 nasal PCRs from all newborns, viral RNAs and Spike protein were detected in the stool of 11 out of 14 newborns as early as the first day of life and increased over time in six.”

Stool homogenates from all 14 newborns elicited elevated inflammatory IL-6 and IFN-γ from macrophages. Most newborns were clinically well except for one death from gestational autoimmune liver disease and another who developed necrotizing enterocolitis.

These findings suggest in utero transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and possible persistent intestinal viral reservoirs in the newborns.

Nature clinical research: SARS CoV-2 detected in neonatal stool remote from maternal COVID-19 during pregnancy

DJ, My non-expert impression is the CoViD-virus may hide into the body often...easy to catch, hard to get rid of...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/japan/japan-record-breaking-covid-19-cases-hospitalizations-and-deaths/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/asia/japan/japan-record-breaking-covid-19-cases-hospitalizations-and-deaths/; 

Japan has seen record-breaking Covid-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the past few days.

We have been looking at Japan’s Covid-19 figures for a couple of weeks trying to work out what is driving these record high numbers, but nothing really stands out.

Although BA.2.75 Centaurus has been detected in Japan, it’s not believed to be at the levels required to cause these record-breaking covid case numbers.

No other new variant has been declared by Japan, so the majority of the reported infections must be BA.5

The population of Japan is highly vaccinated, and mask wearing is obligatory in many enclosed areas, but SARS-CoV-2 seems to have found a way around all of these mitigations. 

Covid cases are finally starting to fall from their peak, but hospitalizations might continue to climb for weeks yet.

This is probably not good news for American and European covid winter waves that are just weeks away from starting in earnest.

It definitely ain’t over yet….

The goal of statistics is to get information of developments...the goal of most governments is-seems to me-to hide such info...My main worry is a combination of diseases...CoViD itself may-with some luck-have a Case Fatality Ratio that could be flu-like (a lot of high risk population already may have died in earlier waves/heat waves).  Healthcare is getting overstretched; an early flu-season=a heavy flu-season (longer time for flu-spread). 

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/india-covid-19-lung-infections-return/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/india-covid-19-lung-infections-return/ ;

Indian doctors are once again seeing Covid-19 cases with lower respiratory tract infection symptoms involving the lungs in senior citizens and people with underlying ailments. Lung involvement has also been seen in vaccinated individuals over the past few weeks.

In Mumbai, around 20 patients are on oxygen support across Covid-19 hospitals, and 17 are on ventilators. The initial symptoms of Covid-19 are the same, but in a small percentage of patients, it progresses to a nagging cough, persistent fever and breathing difficulty, said infectious disease expert Dr Vasant Nagvekar. Physician Dr Gautam Bhansali said he has at least three patients, all above 60 years, with an HRCT score of more than 10.

Chest physician Dr Salil said the more severe symptoms develop after the sixth or seventh day. “We are seeing moderate to severe Covid in elderly people with multiple comorbidities,” he said.

Times of India report

DJ [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/ebola/who-suspected-case-of-ebola-in-democratic-republic-of-the-congo/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/ebola/who-suspected-case-of-ebola-in-democratic-republic-of-the-congo/ ;

A suspected case of Ebola is being reported by the WHO in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)

A 46-year-old woman who died on 15 August 2022 in Beni, a town located in North Kivu, subsequently, exhibited symptoms consistent with Ebola virus disease.

“While the analysis is ongoing, WHO is already on-the-ground supporting health officials to investigate the case and prepare for a possible outbreak,” said Dr Matshidiso Moeti, World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Director for Africa.

WHO staff are working with health authorities to identify anyone who came in contact with the suspected case and monitor their health. WHO will also work to ensure proper infection prevention and control measures are in place, that treatment can be made available for those who need it, and to raise awareness about Ebola among local communities.

WHO  press release

Ebola most likely will stay local/regional...however it is a risk....

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/monkeypox-anecdotal-report-of-a-double-mpox-vaccine-breakthrough-infection/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/monkeypox/monkeypox-anecdotal-report-of-a-double-mpox-vaccine-breakthrough-infection/

A report on Reddit today of a couple who were double vaccinated against monkeypox who now have a confirmed breakthrough infection.

DJ-MPX/Monkeypox is global and out of control...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_monkeypox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory  most of the spread still will be in gay men...(75-85% ???) but it will be spreading-via surface/aerosol/pets also in other groups...[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/08/articles/animals/dogs/what-to-do-with-monkeypox-exposed-pets/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2022/08/articles/animals/dogs/what-to-do-with-monkeypox-exposed-pets/ 

DJ-Limiting sex to one partner long time may decrease risks...Do not let pets lick wounds...just some basic ideas...Hotel cleaners/workers wearing masks ? 

...stop the spread ????...travel limits/stop on mass events ? 

Lots of news...end of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 20 2022 at 11:07pm

part 2

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global CoViD cases-as far as being reported-(most will NOT be reported !) dropped under 5 million for the last 7 days...(4,999,833 cases last 7 days-the week before 5,838,552 cases in worldometer list). 

Japan did see a decrease of -3% to just over 1,4 million reported cases...South Korea increase of +5% to 893,032 cases last 7 days...

US cases would be dropping 30% to just over half a million-however BNO comes up with much higher US numbers then worldometers...still also noticing a downward trend. 

UK cases in worldometers dropped 42%...however the official UK government reporting is "not serious"...[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time gives better indications...UK cases did drop fast but now are stabilizing just under 1,8 million people reporting symptoms...

Most governments have given up on public healthcare...








Where it gets a bit squirrelly is the further away from OG the 'new' vaccine variant, the less efficient the 'backboost'. BA.5 for example, will likely be recognized by only a small fraction of OG memory B cells.

-








In the same way, the more distant the new vaccine variant, the more like a 'new' vaccine (rather than a booster) it becomes, possibly requiring multiple doses to get new, naive B cells involved.

-

Another thing that's not fully understood with bivalent mRNA vaccines is the immunological properties of 'mixed trimers' (say with 2xOG+1xBA5 or 1xOG+2xBA5) that will be major products of 'cotransfected' mRNAs. Could be better or worse for breadth.

DJ "old" vaccines against new (sub)variants may offer "limited protection" against severe disease. Vaccines do NOT stop infections...so another round of vaccines designed for "old variants of CoViD' may further increase immunity evasion...

[url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.08.17.504313v1[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.08.17.504313v1 ;

Specifically, selection experiments identified numerous RBD substitutions that did not confer resistance to broadly neutralizing antibodies in the context of the ancestral Wuhan-Hu-1 spike sequence, but did so in the context of BA.1 and BA.2. 

A subset of these substitutions corresponds to those that have appeared in several BA.2 daughter lineages that have recently emerged, such as BA.5. 

By including as few as 2 or 3 of these additional changes in the context of BA.5, we generated spike proteins that were resistant to nearly all of the 40 broadly neutralizing antibodies and were poorly neutralized by plasma from most individuals. 

The emergence of omicron variants has therefore not only allowed SARS-CoV-2 escape from previously elicited neutralizing antibodies but also lowered the genetic barrier to the acquisition of resistance to the subset of antibodies that remained effective against early omicron variants.

DJ...I did take four vaccines...what do I have to think of when another vaccine-round will start (next month in NL...)? So far mass-vaccination -at best- may have limited the number of people dying from CoViD. Vaccines themselves however seem to have "more risks" then was expected...And a lot of long-term info still will have to show up...need study (that not a lot of people may be willing to do...). 

Can we still get a grip on CoViD, MPX ???? If not-how bad will that be ? My impression-as a non-expert !!! (just making my mind up) is at present pandemics may follow the same route as climate collapse; denial, IPCC-studies running behind the facts, some "steps" to show action...But e-cars do not save the climate, only vaccines will not get us out of these pandemics...so "it is down the hill with increasing speed"....

[url]https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1561170735447547904/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/RajlabN/status/1561170735447547904/photo/1 in the US it looks like BA.2.75 is gaining ground slowly; 0,39% of 15 day samples...BA.5 subvariants over 50% of US cases (as far as tested-reported-sequenced). 

"We hypothesize continuous & prolonged exposure to the viral SAg-like & neurotoxin-like motifs in #SARSCoV2 spike may promote autoimmunity leading to post-acute #COVID19 syndromes, including MIS-C & #LongCovid, as well as neurological complications from #SARS2 infection." Bingo!

and

Pandemic News

@mildanalyst
 · 
Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children and Long COVID: The SARS-CoV-2 Viral Superantigen Hypothesis  https://frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2022.941009/full

DJ, "chronic CoViD' cases may be the most widespread form of CoViD by now...thousends of new cases per day....STOP IT !

The Red Dawn emails revealed that warnings from pandemic experts were ignored by highest levels of USG, DOD,  ,  NIAID,  etc officials. “Fauci told ABC News he “didn't pay that much attention” to the emails.”

DJ, Like the IPCC on "climate", CDC etc. in many countries only became political tools for denial...


Cause a mystery in 1918 too. I stumbled upon the film about infectious diseases, Influenza, how it spreads & the importance of ventilation, clean air, masks & hygiene in the containment. It's on this fascinating YouTube channel: https://youtube.com/c/NineteenthcenturyvideosBacktolife https://youtube.com/watch?v=hn1OvVwtC24&list=PLIyQwzwNXGHXwl5HY9T0a6HxGYLpKIWvJ

And-of course-lots of things are NOT new ! (first link gives 19th century short clips...second link is to "Dr.Wise" on the spread of infectious diseases...DJ-Again I am "not an expert" but you do not need to have a university degree to understand basics of gravity...some brains will do ! The harder it is for a virus, bacteria,=disease- to infect their host the smaller the chance of a pandemic. 

Triangle;

Disease-Host-Transport

Transport often is the weak spot for diseases to reach their hosts ! But we keep offering free transport for all kinds of diseases and claim still to be "intelligent beings"! Stupid Rules !

Insanity as a new normal will bring us to our graves !

Replying to 
"As Britain fell under the grip of the Great Influenza of 1918-19, the Local Government Board commissioned dramatised public information film. Its hard-hitting message was designed to SHOCK people out of their COMPLACENCY towards this common illness & take PREVENTIVE measures."

DJ; Complacency may be an even bigger problem now...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 21 2022 at 11:29pm

Mmm, something happened to my second post from yesterday...

DJ;

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/covid-19-when-do-the-winter-waves-start/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/covid-19-when-do-the-winter-waves-start/ ;

Covid-19: When do the winter waves start?

You might be surprised to learn that, in Europe at least, the winter wave may have already started.

We’ve used pandemic data charts to show the evolution of covid waves across the globe so that you can see at a glance where we are in the global wave cycle. It’s all very unscientific, but it’s all we’ve got right now…

As testing for SARS-CoV-2 has been largely halted by governments across the globe, we are using Covid-19 deaths data to fill that gap. It’s not ideal, remember that deaths can lag cases by several weeks for example, so, at the very best, these are rough estimates and should be treated as such.

 .
European winter wave 2022/2023

The trough for the European summer wave of 2022 was around the 21st June 2022 (green arrow). The two previous European winter waves showed steady growth from that date, with an inflexion point for deaths coming around 20th October and a primary peak in deaths towards late-November. Judging by this chart, the winter wave in Europe has already begun.

 .
North American winter wave 2023

The North American winter wave is shaped differently to the European wave, with five distinct events rather than four. The main winter peaks have, so far, been after the new year holidays, in January or February, with a smaller peak in August/September. The inflexion point for growth in cases tends to be in October/November, so there may be a lull for a couple of months before the winter wave begins in North America.

 .
Asian winter wave 2023

There is a differently shaped wave pattern for Asia too. Asia tends to have its largest Covid wave in March/May time. We expect to see a decline in cases in Asia from now until December 2022, but a simple extrapolation of this chart suggests the next big wave in Asia could be very severe indeed. Japan has seen its highest ever recorded Covid-19 figures for cases, hospitalizations and deaths in its August 2022 wave.

 .
South American winter wave 2022/2023

The largest wave in South America generally occurs in the first few months of the new year, between February and April, with a smaller wave around August. The latest South America wave now seems to be tailing off, so a fresh wave should be due early in the new year.

 .
Global wave pattern

Here are the four continental waves stitched together. It’s the combination of the North American and European winter waves that makes December to February so deadly.

 

See if it works......for now it does...as best as an indication for cases going up again...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table has cases now -14%, deaths -20%...also far from perfect numbers...[url]https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time[/url] or https://health-study.joinzoe.com/data#levels-over-time UK 1,7 million people reporting symptoms coincide with decrease of cases shown in other statistics...

I leave it her for part 1 (technical reasons).

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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