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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

international situation

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: January 13 2023 at 10:51pm

January 14

A short reply for now;

Russia seems to have started a major offensive in Eastern Ukraine (Soledar-Bakhmut) and is expected to go for "major offensives" from the north and/or south into Ukraine. 

Korobochka (コロボ) 🇺🇸✝️🇷🇺

@cirnosad
·
Pontoon bridge equipment spotted in Belarus.

DJ, Ukraine may attack Belarus-then claim Belarus attacked Ukraine....On the other hand Russia may move into Ukraine from Belarus. (So far Belarus did allow major Russian build up-most of the time Belarus managed to stay out of the fighting.). Poland-outside NATO-could see Belarus getting "more involved" as an excuse to start a war with Belarus...

Of course NATO working with Taiwan, Australia...US build up also in Japan, South Korea "does not look good"....With diplomacy and trust gone not much is stopping further escalation...

However "the west" is facing a supplies/energy issue....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 11 2023 at 10:01pm

january 12-2023

Some twitterlinks;

[url]https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps[/url] or https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps (SU)

[url]https://twitter.com/witte_sergei[/url] or https://twitter.com/witte_sergei (WS)

Also Weeb Union video [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAnlbhyps_0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAnlbhyps_0 (WU) calculating Ukraine has 86,000 soldiers in/around the Bahkmut-front, 20% of its army...

WS gives 4 options on further Russian offensives...from the north and south in East Ukraine would cut off most of the Ukraine army from western Ukraine. An attack on Kiev-region would mean Ukraine has to move a lot of forces to protect Kiev-less of its forces in the east...A fourth possibility would be an offensive from Belarus west of Kiev to cut of supplies. WU considers that a high risk option. 

WS also claims a sort of balance both in troops and losses for Ukraine and Russia. DJ-Since Russia has much more artillery (10 to 1 ratio) Ukraine does lose a lot of its fighters due to shelling. On the other side a lot of militia/Wagner PMC fighters may not be included in Russian statistics...

The Russian strategy in this war is to destroy logistics/supplies for the Ukraine forces. If Ukraine runs out of munition, fuel, even mobility/transport for most of its forces Ukraine may no longer be able to continu the war....

The recent videos shows that significant number of Ukrainian troops were killed in the center of Soledar, while other ones finally surrendered. Out of respect for the deceased, these images will not be published. War is a disgrace as ever and many young lives are being lost. 🙏🏻

DJ, some put Ukraine soldiers killed in Soledar at 25,000...WU thinks 10,000 may be more realistic...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/shake-up-russia-replaces-surovikin-as-commander-over-ukraine[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/shake-up-russia-replaces-surovikin-as-commander-over-ukraine

In a very surprising move, Russia has replaced General Surovikin, Commander over Ukrainian operations, with the Chief of the General Staff, General Gerasimov.   This is quite a shock. 

Surovikin was widely viewed as "General Armageddon" and the fact that he is now replaced is a sign that Russia is not happy with how Ukraine is proceeding.

Whatever the reason for Surovikin being replaced, Russian naval forces from the Russian port city of Novorossiysk, made a mass exodus from port late today.  ALL the warships and ALL the submarines, put to the Black Sea.

DJ, replacing may be the wrong word...Lots of indications Russia may be going for expanding the war-so more generals (also for navy, air/missile-force) now are included. 

----------------

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/military/irans-navy-sail-fleet-panama-canal-challenge-us[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/military/irans-navy-sail-fleet-panama-canal-challenge-us ;

According to a report by Tasnim News Agency, during a conference on maritime civilization in Tehran, Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani announced on Wednesday that plans are in progress to dispatch the Iranian naval forces to the Panama Canal.

"The Iranian Navy units are getting closer to the coasts of the Americas," he stated. The navy commander elaborated that Iranian naval forces had already been deployed to all of the strategic straits across the world – with the exception of just two.

-

[url]https://southfront.org/two-british-wiped-out-in-soledar-ukraine/[/url] or https://southfront.org/two-british-wiped-out-in-soledar-ukraine/ ;

The first data on the number and composition of Soledar’s dead defenders appear. Expectedly, foreigners were among the AFU soldiers. On the evening of 11 January, official Wagner PMC sources announced that they had earlier received a request to trace two British men who had stopped making contact from Soledar.

“On 8 January, the “Ask Wagner” hotline received a request to find two British citizens, Andrew Bagshaw and Christopher Parry, who went missing on 6 January in Soledar. Today, the body of one of them has been found, and documents for both British nationals were found with him.” – Wagner PMC.

-

[url]https://southfront.org/top-usmc-commander-in-japan-says-pentagon-preparing-for-war-with-china/[/url] or https://southfront.org/top-usmc-commander-in-japan-says-pentagon-preparing-for-war-with-china/ ;

Written by Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

The United States is now publicly discussing the “containment” of China with its Asia-Pacific vassals. On January 8, the Financial Times reported that the supreme US Marine Corps commander for Japan gave very direct statements regarding Pentagon’s China strategy. Lieutenant General James Bierman thinks there are “numerous parallels” between Ukraine and Taiwan and admits the US is preparing what he dubbed “a counter-China theater” by strengthening coordination with its regional satellite states.

DJ, US claims it is still going for a "One-China" policy...Bejing will NOT accept more US military involvement in Taiwan (would welcome less US military in South Korea...US nuclear weapons in South Korea are another red line...)

Iran-navy taking positions near the US, more and more western "volunteers/advisors" in Ukraine...all indicate the "war is widening"...

DJ-Western economies need raw materials from Asia...again; The West is NOT in a position for a major conventional war with "the rest" [url]https://thesaker.is/why-the-cia-attempted-a-maidan-uprising-in-brazil/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/why-the-cia-attempted-a-maidan-uprising-in-brazil/ ... a nuclear war may see the US/UK destroyed in seconds...

Russia "taking over" Ukraine may be to much for Poland...NATO may not be able to stop the Polish PiZ-goverment (catholic extremists) from moving in....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 11 2023 at 1:13pm

Military Summary [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqV4s-QyXck[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqV4s-QyXck from minute 22.30 Russia very likely planning to start major offensive soon. Goal-to stop western supplies (tanks, volunteers). 

[url]https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps[/url] or https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/01/ukrainian-defense-lines-and-what-happens-when-they-are-breached.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/01/ukrainian-defense-lines-and-what-happens-when-they-are-breached.html DJ-May underestimate Russian need to end this war....One of the comments;

Dutch port of Vlissingen today. Disembarking 90 Abrams tanks and 170 Bradley fighting vehicles, 15 Paladin 155mm howitzers and hundreds multi-wheel armoured vehickes …

Transport by road (or railway?) to Poland and the NATO Eastern flank of Baltic states. Intended for US Army 2nd Brigade in Operation Atlantic Resolve, permanent NATO’s War against Russia.

See meeting today in Lviv and Joint Declaration of the Presidents of the Lublin Triangle. Poland to deliver a quantity of German Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv.

https://nv.ua/ukr/opinion/zelenskiy-u-lvovi-polshcha-daye-tanki-leopard-novini-ukrajini-50296904.html

Posted by: Oui | Jan 11 2023 19:18 utc | 7

DJ also increase of reports on [url]https://southfront.org/secret-defeat-of-ukrainian-army/[/url] or https://southfront.org/secret-defeat-of-ukrainian-army/ 

It is more then likely NATO will even further send reinforcements...even soldiers ..

The Duran [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48x7ZPo6uB4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48x7ZPo6uB4 also mentioning [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credibility_gap[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Credibility_gap ; Credibility gap is a term that came into wide use with journalism, political and public discourse in the United States during the 1960s and 1970s. At the time, it was most frequently used to describe public skepticism about the Lyndon B. Johnson administration's statements and policies on the Vietnam War.[1] It was used in journalism as a euphemism for recognized lies told to the public by politicians. Today, it is used more generally to describe almost any "gap" between an actual situation and what politicians and government agencies say about it.[2][3]

DJ...with also pandemics getting out of control, social unrest "the west" may see a lot of widespread unease..."We" can NOT afford a major war...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2023 at 11:29pm

The Duran [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoauKJeU3Y4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoauKJeU3Y4 ...trump supported the bolsenaro-coup in Brazil...US "democrats" may hope Lula may "less dislike" them then he has reason to hate bolsenaro/trump (now both in Florida...). 

Brazil wants a future in BRICS...Russian fertilizer...Alexander Mercouris (AM) compares Lula with India Modi...national interests come first...

In Israel Netanyahu again is PM....Netanyahu may disagree with Putin over Syria, Iran but as persons they like eachother...Israel does see its future in Asia, the Middle East...so now Saudi Arabia has "good relations" with Russia...Saudi's, Egypt working on improving relations with Iran. Even Türkiye soon could work with Syria, Iran to "kick out NATO/US" ...Israel urgently need the Russians to avoid total isolation....

Hindustan Times (India) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-MJh1NpNok[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4-MJh1NpNokExternal Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar once again exposed Europe's 'hypocrisy' when asked why India never condemns Russia's action in Ukraine. Speaking with Austrian state broadcaster ORF, Jaishankar said, "I can give you many instances of countries violating the sovereignty of another country. If I were to ask where Europe stands on a lot of those, I am afraid I'll get a long silence." 


DJ..."the west" keeps repeating mistakes...South Vietnam, Afghanistan more recent...now a NATO war against Russia in Ukraine....."we" are running out of an economy that can support such a war....

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/01/ukraine-and-russia-agree-russia-is-fighting-nato.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/01/ukraine-and-russia-agree-russia-is-fighting-nato.html

Russia and Ukraine have publicly agreed on a fundamental and important issue.

The question is who Russia is fighting in Ukraine.

During an interview with a Ukrainian TV station the Oleksii Reznikov, the defense minister of Ukraine, answered that the Ukraine has "already become a de facto member of the NATO alliance."

DJ...in theory all present NATO members have to agree on further NATO expansion...in fact also Israel in many ways did become part of NATO (with a US communication/radar base in Israel...). 

“At the NATO Summit in Madrid” in June 2022, “it was clearly delineated that over the coming decade, the main threat to the alliance would be the Russian Federation. Today Ukraine is eliminating this threat. We are carrying out NATO’s mission today. They aren’t shedding their blood. We’re shedding ours. That’s why they’re required to supply us with weapons,” Reznikov said ...

The official said Kiev was being constantly reminded by its “Western partners” that it, “like a real shield, is defending the entire civilized world, the entire West,” from the Russians, and said that he personally has recently received holiday greeting cards and text messages from Western defense ministers to that effect.

Reznikov expressed “absolute” certainty in Ukraine’s eventual entry into NATO, saying he was “convinced that this is an absolutely realistic possibility... Of course they won’t accept this political decision via consensus before our victory. This is clear. But after the victory, after all this ends and some kind of peace arrives, NATO countries, first and foremost, will be interested in the construction of this security architecture. They have seen their own weak spots, they have seen who is strong and powerful. Today they are teaching us but tomorrow our officers, sergeants and even privates will be teaching them how to fight the Russians. Russia remains one of the threats to NATO, and for Europe as a whole.”

DJ...If you want to sell weapons you need enemies....What is wrong with diplomacy ???? Is NATO only in the US interests ? 

[url]https://southfront.org/breaking-russians-captured-afu-stronghold-soledar/[/url] or https://southfront.org/breaking-russians-captured-afu-stronghold-soledar/ ...NATO is losing this war...we should have avoidid this war....

Again...further NATO escalation increases risks of an all out global war...Russia, Iran, China and their allies fighting the US/NATO in East Asia, South China Sea, Indian Ocean, Atlantic...

We have to avoid such a disaster...we are NOT in a position to have any realistic chance of "winning" anything...This NATO expansion war-like NAzi's NApoleon moving east-is a stupid repeat of earlier mistakes !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2023 at 10:59pm

But "distancing helps"????? Again january 10, 

Military Summary [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vFCCJezu0s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vFCCJezu0s reporting on a major collapse in Soledar-Eastern Ukraine of Ukraine defense...

DJ, There have been earlier claims Ukraine defense in the east would be close to collapse...NATO stopped total collapse...maybe US, Polish, UK military "advisors" showing "NATO artillery functions" on the frontline ? 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russian-senator-says-russia-at-war-with-all-of-nato[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russian-senator-says-russia-at-war-with-all-of-nato (DJ-I disagree with a lot of HT views) ;

"The events in Ukraine aren’t a clash between Moscow and Kiev. It’s a military confrontation of NATO, first of all the US and Britain, with Russia.

Fearing a direct engagement, NATO instructors push Ukrainian men to certain death," he said in a fresh interview with state-owned newspaper aif.ru.

People in the collective West do not seem to understand the implications of Russian political officials repeatedly stating "Russia is at war with all of NATO."  The implications are that all of NATO may be attacked.

Those who dismiss such a possibility because they think we have "Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD)" are in error.

Russia has bomb shelters for at least forty million of their people.  We in the West, do not.

DJ, Also China, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, Iran de facto are at war with NATO....it is not "just" Russia...

The Duran [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhvqQlZWu40[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhvqQlZWu40 ; Go slow strategy. Ukraine economy collapse, EU economy severe downturn The Duran: Episode 1477

DJ, Alexander Mercouris  (AM) compares Ukraine now with recent Afghanistan, a bit further away South Vietnam...."the west" supporting corrupt-to-the-bone puppet regimes. Only-in the Ukraine- "we" pump in billions per month to "keep Ukraine" going...AM is correct-in my view-in his claim Ukraine has no realistic economy left...Very limited grain export...for the rest fully dependent on western help/loans...

Some EU countries using Russian deposits on EU accounts to help Ukraine...The west earlier did "freeze/steal" money from Venezuela, Afghanistan, Syria in efforts for regime change there...Lots of major global investors may no longer work with western banks when countries simply steal their money-against any law !!!-at will...

AM also mentions "US trying to get EU companies interested in moving towards the US-lower energy costs" with the US also exporting LNG to the EU at very high costs....

DJ, some notes on that;

-Some EU companies have a very long history in the country they are in...not all of them are willing to give up their roots...(Royal Dutch Shell, Unilever both were Anglo-Dutch...for tax reasons they are now "100% UK companies").

-A lot of money is made in trade...energy-costs are not the only factor..

-Asia, Eur-Asia is the future growth market...so investing in the US may not be in the interest of an EU company...

Another point of course is the EU now dependent on high cost US, Qatar LNG...also providing billions per month for Ukraine (and also limited roles in other NATO wars...). The EU is running out of money...

-Russia started a "Special Military Operation"-SMO-against Ukraine. Maybe renaming it as an "ATO" Anti (nazi) Terrorist Operation". Russia is now getting ready for all out war...

For NOW !!!! Ukraine may be the main frontline...but Russia is working with Iran, Syria, Iraq, Türkiye to deal with US proxies (Kurds, IS etc) in Syria, Iraq, Iran (MEK)....No doubt Russia, China coordinating plans in East Asia...Taiwan, South China Sea, "Korean reunification" (working towards an official peace agreement; "One Country-Two systems", neutrality and de-militarization with Asian (India ? Indonesia ? Malaysia) or "regional" (maybe Australia ?) security guarantees...). 

North Atlantic Terrorist Organization

[url]https://southfront.org/troubled-way-to-nato-for-sweden-and-finland/[/url] or https://southfront.org/troubled-way-to-nato-for-sweden-and-finland/

There’s been growing domestic pressure in Sweden for the country’s leadership to stand up to Turkey and not implement the kind of drastic changes in laws that Ankara is pushing in order for Sweden to become a NATO member.

The majority of Swedish residents opposed changing the country’s laws even for the sake of NATO membership. According to the Dagens Nyheter survey, 79 percent of the Swedes agreed that the country “should defend Swedish laws and our principles as the rule of law in relation to Turkey.” Only 10 percent of respondents were in favor of joining the alliance as soon as possible.

-

On January 8, Finland refused to join NATO before Sweden and will wait for the country to approve an application. The Minister of Foreign Affairs Pekka Haavisto said that Stockholm and Helsinki are completing the process of joining the alliance together.

Earlier, Finnish Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said that Finland would refuse to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory even after joining NATO.

Meanwhile, almost half of Finnish citizens do not support the creation and deployment of a permanent NATO military base in the country, even if they join the Alliance, according to the Finnish TV channel MTV Uutiset.

According to the survey of the local research company Taloustuktuikma, the deployment of a permanent NATO military base in Finland is not widely supported. 48 percent of respondents opposed the deployment of a NATO base on the territory of the country after its accession to the alliance. 13 percent of survey participants refrained.

In  general, the opinion of the population regarding the role of Finland in the North Atlantic Alliance was divided almost equally. 49 percent of respondents would like Finland to participate more actively in international military operations and NATO activities. In their turn, 42 percent of respondents said that Finland should deal with its own security.

DJ, Finland is breaking peace agreements (after World War Two) made with the Soviet Union on neutrality...Western "lack of thinking" is "the Soviet Union" no longer exists...In history Finland, the east of Poland, the Baltics most of the time were part of the Russian Empire under the Czars...

There has been "discussions"on a [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helsinki%E2%80%93Tallinn_Tunnel[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helsinki%E2%80%93Tallinn_Tunnel ...China a.o. could be interested in investing in Finland, Baltics when they give up on NATO....

DJ-In general; Russia, China, Iran, North Korea know war....that is why they go for "make investments, trade...NOT war"...Finland, Taiwan, Germany know war as well...maybe for Poland being in a conflict zone in between Russia and Germany "war is a way of survival"...most other countries would like to avoid wars the best they can....

Both the US and UK managed to get most of the wars away from their borders....may not realize the total horror of wars....[url]https://southfront.org/in-video-this-is-what-defence-of-bakhmut-looks-like/[/url] or https://southfront.org/in-video-this-is-what-defence-of-bakhmut-looks-like/ may give a glimpse of wars....

North Korea lost over 10% of its population in the 1950-53 war-most of them due to US bombing....China did see 400,000 Chinese military killed in that war....The Soviet Union lost over 20 million in the 1941-45 war against fascism....Vietnam, Indonesia, Iran did see millions of deaths after 1945 in western wars against them....

"The west" seems to be unable to understand how "the rest" is seeing that west....

In NL we had (I believe till 1948) a constitution making a difference between "citizenship" and "subjects"...Indonesian were "subjects...without a right to vote, travel...second class...Colonialism was apartheid, racism...slavery only was one form of how "western christianity" treated most other humans as garbage..."We" may like to forget/ignore that...the "rest" of the world will NEVER accept such treatment again... 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2023 at 10:59pm

So the "HOPE thing" covers a latest post...mmmmmmm

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2023 at 10:58pm

DJ...january 10

I have to check what a yesterday twitter link does...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2023 at 1:29am

Some items january 9; 

HorizonKinetics

@HorizonKinetics
·
Observation #61             During  the 73 years between Marcus Aurelius’s reign ending in 180 CE and the beginning of the reign of Emperor Gallienus, the denarius silver coin was periodically debased – by mixing in a cheaper base metal, like lead – from 75% silver to only 5%.
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DJ The Roman denarius declined 93,33% between the years 180 and 253, the US dollar lost 91,11% of its value between 1948 and 2021 -both 73 year periods. 

The #HOPE cycle is moving along in order. How much economic pain will investors celebrate with the backward-looking focus of Fed policy? This is why we think most of the pain will be felt AFTER employment weakens, not before. Inflation still a larger fear than recession. #macro





DJ see [url]https://twitter.com/MichaelKantro/status/1612162834271543298/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/MichaelKantro/status/1612162834271543298/photo/1 

Housing peaked nov.2020 (US)

Orders peaked march 2021

Profits peaked june 2022

Employment will peak summer 23 ? 

People repeat a lot of what they do-a lot of events/things are predicteble/likely...(Given bidens age he may die as a president.....[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States_by_age[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States_by_age ;The oldest president at the end of his tenure was Ronald Reagan at 77; this distinction will eventually fall upon Joe Biden,[2][4] who is 80.

DJ, The Soviet Union had very old leaders in their final stages-Gorbachov had to deal with their legacy...). 

-----------

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/turkeys-erdogan-flips-syria-its-head[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/turkeys-erdogan-flips-syria-its-head ;

Either way, what Putin has done here, with Erdogan’s help, is turn the entire power dynamic of aggression on its head.  

Now, the Russians can allow Syria and Iran to ‘defend themselves’ while keeping his hands mostly clean there.

Now the real ‘bluff calling’ phase of this situation begins.  

Now, we’ll see how long “Biden” will keep troops in Syria, stealing oil and enforcing sanctions that Turkiye will make redundant in a few weeks?

Expect regime change operations in Turkiye this fall.  Expect stepped-up Israeli aggression against both Syria and Iran until such time as Iran’s IRGC air force is strong enough to defend itself.

The timer is ticking on all of the conflicts in this region: Syria, Iraq, Yemen.  

And the key to it all was always getting Erdogan to flip them all on their heads by helping expose the mendacity of this generation of ‘leaders’ in the West.

DJ, what role did the US play in the latest "unrest" in Brasil....The US has been changing regimes in Pakistan, Peru among lots of others..Russia was next in the alphabet/list...Brazil, China on another regime-change-list ? Does the US realy think countries will keep buying this form of "US democrazy"? 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-bye-bye-1991-2022[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-bye-bye-1991-2022 ;

The final breaking point

2022 ended an era: the final breaking point of the “rules-based international order” established after the fall of the U.S.S.R.

The Empire entered Desperation Row, throwing everything and the kitchen sink – proxy war on Ukraine, AUKUS, Taiwan hysteria – to dismantle the set-up they created way back in 1991.

Globalization’s rollback is being implemented by the Empire itself. That ranges from stealing the EU energy market from Russia so the hapless vassals buy ultra-expensive U.S. energy to smashing the entire semiconductor supply chain, forcibly rebuilding it around itself to “isolate” China.

The NATO vs. Russia war in Ukraine is just a cog in the wheel of the New Great Game. For the Global South, what really matters is how Eurasia – and beyond – are coordinating their integration process, from BRI to the BRICS+ expansion, from the SCO to the INSTC, from Opec+ to the Greater Eurasia Partnership.

We’re back to what the world looked like in 1914, or before 1939, only in a limited sense. There’s a plethora of nations struggling to expand their influence, but all of them are betting on multipolarity, or “peaceful modernization”, as Xi Jinping coined it, and not Forever Wars: China, Russia, India, Iran, Indonesia and others.

So bye bye 1991-2022. The hard work starts now. Welcome to the New Great Game on crack.

DJ...I expect the US, UK, EU to break up...Maybe even Germany, France, Spain (Catalunya a.o.) and Italy could see regions going their own way...Governments/politics did fail to such a degree citizens may have no other option then to reorganize lots of things....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-how-general-soleimani-kick-started-multipolar-world[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-how-general-soleimani-kick-started-multipolar-world ;

I have a dream

The profound reverence towards Gen. Soleimani expressed by every layer of Iranian society – from the grassroots to the leadership – has certainly translated into honoring his life’s work by finding Iran’s deserved place in multipolarity. 

Iran is now solidified as one of the key nodes of the New Silk Roads in Southwest Asia. The Iran-China strategic partnership, boosted by Tehran’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)in 2002, is as strong geoeconomically and geopolitically as the interlocking partnerships with two other BRICS members, Russia and India. In 2023, Iran is set to become a member of BRICS+.

In parallel, the Iran/Russia/China triad will be deeply involved in the reconstruction of Syria – complete with BRI projects ranging from the Iran-Iraq-Syria-Eastern Mediterranean railway to, in the near future, the Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline, arguably the key factor that provoked the American proxy war against Damascus.

Soleimaniis today revered at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad, at the al-Aqsa mosque in Palestine, at the dazzling late baroque Duomo in Ragusa in southeast Sicily, at a stupa high in the Himalayas, or a mural in a street in Caracas.

All across the Global South, there’s a feeling in the air: the new world being born – hopefully, more equal and fair - was somehow dreamed of by the victim of the murder that unleashed the roaring twenties














 unleashed the Raging Twenties.






DJ

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 08 2023 at 3:08am

january 8 update...

Some sources; 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIN47QKT6x8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kIN47QKT6x8 M.S. Military Summary, idea is Ukraine/NATO may go for offensive in march....DJ, Russia & allies may try to prevent such an offensive. Large build up of Russian forces a.o. in Belarus. Some claims [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-says-russia-mobilize-extra-500000-conscripts-month[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukraine-says-russia-mobilize-extra-500000-conscripts-month of even more Russian mobilization...

DJ-If you want to "finish" a war you may go for a final strike-a major offensive. I would expect Russia may want to end western supplies [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wonderful-christmas-present-zelensky-hails-single-biggest-us-arms-package-one-time[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wonderful-christmas-present-zelensky-hails-single-biggest-us-arms-package-one-time reaching Ukraine by taking over the Polish/Romania/Moldova-Ukraine border zone...

furthermore Russia may try to form an international coalition...to tell the west "enough is enough"...

For China getting such a message over to NATO/US may help China with its plans for a.o. Taiwan, South China Sea etc. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pepe_Escobar[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pepe_Escobar -very experienced-since he does not go for western propaganda "western embedded billionaire owned media" claim he has to be pro-Putin...(like all others disagreeing with MSM-embedded media). [url]https://thecradle.co/Article/Columns/20037[/url] or https://thecradle.co/Article/Columns/20037 Pepe Escobar thinks China may want to stay out of open support for Russia...China also trying to improve relations with Iran AND Saudi Arabia...even Afghanistan...[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/taliban-signs-historic-afghan-oil-extraction-deal-chinese-company[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/taliban-signs-historic-afghan-oil-extraction-deal-chinese-company 

DJ-I disagree with Pepe Escobar. We may have reached a point that "taking masks of" may end a western endless escalation...Russia-Iran-China-North Korea (Syria, Iraq, Venezuela, Nicaragua ???) going for "peace enforcement" in Ukraine, Syria, Iraq gives NATO only two options;

-go nuclear-but Russia may have more and better (hypersonic) nuclear weapons. Russia, China, North Korea are much better prepared for nuclear war...

-accept a multi-polar system...with "the west" as a constructive partner...the 10% west sticking to conflict with 90% rest will have to pay a very high economic price...

The coming weeks has much of (northern) Ukraine at freezing temperatures...Russia may use it tanks, artillery, good supplies to "run over" Ukraine forces with a lack of tanks, shells/artillery, air-defense/support...Again [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shock_and_awe[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shock_and_awe -by a force of several major countries- may "bring the message" to a west not willing to listen....

Fait accompli-done facts...learning the hard way-make the west pay for breaking agreements/diplomacy, stealing reserves....The "rest of the world" by now has run out of patience...has the means and motives (M&M) to react in a different way...

If Ukraine offensive would be combined with a Russian-Iran-Turkish-Syrian offensive to kick the US/NATO out of the middle east...Russia/China block Taiwan (why invade ? Other ways of pressure may have lower costs higher benefits...invading is a US way of thinking !) into submission...then maybe -finally- some western "leaders" may get the point...

Like the pandemic this "west-rest-confrontation" could and should have been avoided...we have "our politicians-for-sale" to blame for this mega-mix of insanity...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2023 at 10:58pm

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YjkjteDPwSQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YjkjteDPwSQ january 6, The Duran; Turkey, Syria coming together. Bolton fumes, wants Turkey out of NATO The Duran: Episode 1474

DJ...a total lack of realism on the west believing US/NATO could switch governments in Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan failed in Syria, Türkiye (the US coup in 2016 was inside a NATO memberstate !). Outcome is Iran now -via Iraq- talking with Saudi Arabia, Egypt on improving relations. Iran is a major partner in Russian-India energy trade. No doubt Iran also working with Türkiye to limit the Kurds. 

It is very sad to see the Kurds-largest nation-30-40 million-without their own country-again choosing the wrong partners; US, Israel...NATO NEVER !!!! was a friend of the Kurds ! Before the west misused protests in Syria to start a civil war NATO was working with Türkiye in its genocide of the Kurds....Iran before the Islamic revolution of 1979 did see western aid for a mass murder on Kurds...

DJ, The Soviet Union, Russia may have done more for the Kurdish dream then NATO/the west ever will...and of course out of Russian self-interest. A large Kurdish State south of Russia, not (very) religious and in an oil/gas rich region has had the interest of Russia for centuries...Just like Afghanistan once did see the Russian Empire and British India fighting for influence in that region...

NATO without Türkiye would be a strategic disaster...but in fact it has now almost become a reality...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJ4HyyhbvjU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJ4HyyhbvjU Military Summary on the Orthodox Christmas cease-fire...Erdogan-Türkiye also pushing for such an idea...so is the Orthodox Church...

It again underlines a religious part of the conflict. The leader of the "Eastern" Orthodox Church was "the boss" of both Ukraine and Russian Orthodoxy...Kiev tried to break those ties...but may not have been able to replace it with "NATO leadership of the Ukraine Orthodoxy"....

Many other Orthodox Churches switched to december for Christmas, Russia/Ukraine did have that january 6 & 7...(at least some Ukrainians may not welcome "American Christmas"...). 

In Syria, Iraq, Egypt, Orthodox Christians were/are part of the power elite...NATO was fighting Christians in those countries...Greek (Cyprus) Orthodoxy, SE Europe Orthodox are NOT happy with western sanctions on (Russian) religious leaders...

DJ-During the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crusades[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crusades western Europe did not make much difference between Orthodox Christians and Muslims...The Crusades were part of the reason for the fall of the Eastern Roman or [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byzantine_Empire[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byzantine_Empire .

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death was another major factor leading to the end of the Byzantine/Eastern Roman Empire...

DJ-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Roman_Empire[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Roman_Empire the Western Roma Empire ended in 476, after that there was no point in calling the Byzantines "Eastern Roman Empire"...however for continuity I think it may have use to call Byzantine as "Eastern Roman". 

Lots of conflicts still have "Roman" roots...The "Ottoman Empire" more or less followed in the east, [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlemagne[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlemagne at the end started a "Franks"Empire in the west...lots of things in common; religious fights. The [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saxon_Wars[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saxon_Wars resulted in "Germans" fleeing from forced Christianity-by-the-sword to the north. Together with the Danes they returned to plunder churches as "Vikings" (maybe related to "wijkling" sort of "refugee"...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historiography_of_the_fall_of_the_Western_Roman_Empire#Catastrophic_collapse[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historiography_of_the_fall_of_the_Western_Roman_Empire#Catastrophic_collapse Empires often end for a mix of reasons. Pandemics may be part of those reasons both for the Western Roman Empire as for the Byzantine one...

History-by definition-HAS !!! to be complex ! Empires come and go. The UK once ruled 1/4 of the globe just 100 years ago... Both World War Two and the -related- rise of the US only were parts of reasons for the end of the British Empire...and experts can discuss for ever, disagree-with good reasons- on why empires collapse...

Today the "West" is facing a decline...DJ-I think confrontation-policies increased the speed of the fall of the west...Diplomacy maybe even could have avoided that fall...

Pandemics now increase the end of "western dominance"..."living with the virus" is just as bad idea as going for regime change all over the planet..."We did it to ourselves"...no need to blame Putin, the CCP...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2023 at 11:44pm

January 5 - 2023

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/01/ukraine-the-big-push-to-end-the-war.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/01/ukraine-the-big-push-to-end-the-war.html and Military Summary [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3PyOp_0i2o[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3PyOp_0i2o 

DJ-

Asia,

The Taiwan politicians who invited pelosi to come over did lose the Taiwan elections...I think both Taiwan and South Korea watch Türkiye on how "balancing" can get the best for them. Both Taiwan and Korea  were Japanese colonies till 1945...may see Japan more as an enemy than they regard China, Russia as enemies...Asia-4 billion consumers-is THE future economic market...(NOT the US-UK-EU...). 

Also India is going for its own interests...boosting its economy with -relative- cheap Russian energy imported via Iran. Türkiye is trying to become an "energy-hub" for Europe. Trading Middle East and Russian energy possibly in Turkish currency...

Frontlines,

In Syria, Iraq Türkiye seems to be willing to work with the Damascus, Bagdad governments, coordinate actions both with Russia and Iran. 

The US was behind a himars attack near Donetsk, I -DJ- would not be surprised if Russia did attack a US (illigal) base in Syria or Iraq in reaction. 

Since winter-frost is on its way in Ukraine -ground freezing- Russia may be able to use that frozen ground for a "major/final" offensive in Ukraine. "Go for the kill". Even with Poland now very much involved...very likely thousends Polish "volunteers" already killed in Ukraine...there may not be that much the "west" can do. 

Ukraine will not welcome Poland, Romania, other annexating parts of western Ukraine. A pro-Russian government in Kiev may at least see something of the idea of Ukraine continuing. Russia may choose to "use" Ukraine as an opening for trade between China, India and the EU...

MS  (Military Summary) had some ideas of what a Russian offensive could look like-cutting of most of Ukraine army in the east from the rest of Ukraine. Kiev could choose between the remainders of its army in the east surrender or being destroyed...The Russian goals did not change...safety for Russia...

So Ukraine -in a peacedeal- may NOT join NATO, NOT genocide Russians, NOT go for nuclear weapons or any major army...Russia may agree to protect Ukraine borders...Poland/Romania moving east = NATO moving east....DJ-The way I see it  it may be open if Ukraine even would be allowed to join the EU....somebody has to repair the damage of the war...

No doubt Türkiye, Iran, China, India may be willing to "invest" in Ukraine as well...

DJ-I would not be surprised if there are already talks between "Ukraine groups" and Asian countries on a way out of this war...Indonesia, Saudi Arabia maybe playing a role ? 

Maybe another note as well; In history in former colonies nationalists did become -in name- communists to get support for their struggle for independence. Could Ukraine see some groups (again) become fascists in a struggle for national identity ? Would peace be the best way to end fascism/nazi's in Ukraine ? Deny them fuel ? 

Ukraine nazi's in the past killed tens of thousends Polish, Russian, Jewish people...The only "good" thing about fascists is they are very self-destructive...(DJ-Most fascists have catholic links...however most catholics are NOT !!!! fascists ! Many catholics were murdered by nazi's...In Ukraine the catholic/orthodox conflict is part of a wider problem). 

The west...

Can the "west" deal with losing yet other wars ? Not only Ukraine but also Syria, Iraq may kick out NATO. The main western problem is "politics". Somehow western democracy ended up as democrazy....politicians-for-sale will be part of the problem-political parties forced by law to be open about where they get their money from may be part of the answer...

NO-it is not against a "right of privacy" if laws demand parties to be open on who donates lots of money to what party...Transparency-as part of democracy-goes above a right of privacy of party-sponsors (and their go-betweens). In a democracy politics is NOT for sale...in a democrazy it is...

Still politics for sale may go for escalation...even nuclear...in the interest of few at the cost of many...It is in the public western interest to "clean up" politics...or pay the price. A nuclear war will not have any winners...Very likely Russian air defense may limit a western nuclear attack...react in full force to "end the west"...still the outcome would be beyond imagination...

In my view "the west/politics" is the main problem-WE !!! have to solve that problem...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2022 at 11:46pm

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKQ_3LR4MG4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKQ_3LR4MG4 Military Summary; (minute 16) Ukraine drones attacking targets inside Russia are NOT old Soviet drones but new UK provided ones...[url]https://southfront.org/ukrainian-uav-struck-russian-airfield-in-border-kursk-region/[/url] or https://southfront.org/ukrainian-uav-struck-russian-airfield-in-border-kursk-region/ (no confirmation from other sources the used drones were from the UK...[url]https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/12/06/ukrainian-1000-range-suicide-drone-passes-number-of-tests/[/url] or https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/12/06/ukrainian-1000-range-suicide-drone-passes-number-of-tests/ 

Ukraine’s state defense concern Ukroboronprom said on 4 December that a combat drone it is developing has passed “a number of stages of successful testing” and is moving to the stage of testing under electronic warfare.

Afterwards, the Ukrainian weapons concern hoped to be able to test it in combat. We promised it before the end of this year, and we are trying to fulfil this promise,” Ukroboronprom spokeswoman Nataliia Sad said.

DJ-from [url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/ua%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%A6-ru%F0%9F%87%B7%F0%9F%87%BA-nato%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B3-reports.17695/page-5[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/ua%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%A6-ru%F0%9F%87%B7%F0%9F%87%BA-nato%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B3-reports.17695/page-5  Alexander Mercouris asking if it is wise to use drones against (Russian) bases with nuclear weapons...Baltics/Poland could provide long range (US) weapons to Ukraine...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKOjPBocHEI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKOjPBocHEI Jimmy Dore Show...who is saying what in the US ? Did victoria nuland agree with ukraine attacking Russian nuclear bases ???)

Also massive shelling of Donetsk -killing civilians- seems to be the Ukraine/Kiev way of trying to escalate the war. 

DJ-The "west" is getting more and more divided over how to deal with this war. 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9abYGrFjzBo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9abYGrFjzBo The Duran;

-West oil-price caps...May translate to the price-cap becoming the minimum price...OPEC+ (Saudi Arabia a.o.) simply does not accept price caps

-After freezing Russian accounts in the west now some EU-officials claim they can use the Russian billions to provide Ukraine with help...This will result in even less trust in western banks...goes against international law...in fact simply is stealing money because it is "Russian" money...

-Russia now also creating a "gas-OPEC" with major gas producers...Qatar came with that idea in 2017..Russia did not want to worsen relations with the EU then...

-There are growing worries on the health risks this Ukraine war brings...In most wars citizens have limited room for escape...Since the west is pushing this war lots of Ukrainians seek safety in that west...

-It is the west that needs global trade most...Russia, Asia can be even better of without the west-use their own currencies, have a lot of natural resources, energy, industry, labor...So "the west" sanctioning the rest is a form of self destruction of the west...

-Japan seems to be improving relations with China, wants to keep energy from Russia (oil & gas) going...

-Xi visit to Saudi Arabia may turn into an Arab-China top meeting...DJ, after OPEC+ "the Arab world" seems to be shifting away from the west...

Why does this matter ? 

You need an economy to have healthcare...the "west" is destroying its economy...(France after Germany warning for black outs due to energy problems. Cold weather means energy price going up=inflation going up. Fiat-currency only works if countries "give value" to a fiat-currency...Western internal trade...NL cheese, German beer/cars, French wine for US LNG is "not strong" enough to provide dominance for the west...).

This 2022 summer NL did get 25% of its electricity from solar panels...Spain 23%...renewable energy - in combination with wise use of energy (less car use, less flying) could change the energy perspectives...for such a goal you need strong government setting goals, based on a vision...at this moment "politics kick cans down the street" -politics is a problem NOT the way out of problems...

A reaction from MoA;

Hi everyone,
I apologize for my perfectible English because I'm French. IMHO, the oil cap price applied to Russia is at risk to plunge European Union in a real pandemonium. Why? Here are the facts I have collected from websites related to the oil industry.
Facts. First, in response to the oil cap decision, Russia has announced she will not deliver any refined products to countries supporting the oil cap. Otherwise said, mostly the European Union. To date, Russia is the main provider for EU of diesel, and also of domestic fuel for heating. And still accounts for about 1/4 of the US imports of diesel fuel.
Diesel is used by personal cars (EU), but mostly by trucks or locomotives, and also by a large array of engines used for building, fishing, forestry, mining, public works, and so on.
Second, a worlwide diesel crisis existed before Ukraine war, due to decreasing capacities of refineries. It originated in the Covid-19 pandemics, but also in a loss of interest from refining companies, especially in Europe. Why? Because diesel engine has been targeted by ecologist organizations and, further, the European Commission has announced a ban onto thermal engines as for 2035. In other words, this history is very similar to that of light power produced by atomic plants. Europeans will experiment during the incoming winter the pertinence of such ideology-based decisions.
Not surprisingly, the USA have anticipated the likely Russia's reaction to the oil cap announcement. Albeit the first in the list of worlwide oil producers, the USA were due to manage a technical issue. They produce mostly light shale oil which is poorly convenient for the transformation into diesel fuel. The more an oil is heavy, the more it can yield during distillation diesel, domestic fuel or heavier fuels. "No problemo" for Washington. After years of bans onto the Venezuela government, they allowed the Chevron company to restart their activities in Venezuela. Provided, of course, Maduro's government starts talks with the US-backed opposition.
Well done, USA. And what about their European allies?
Not surprisingly, this bunch of brainless "elites", obsessed with their ideology, have supported the oil cap. So they went at full speed into the trap set up by Russia.
Likely the atmosphere will be "lively" in the EU after February 5.
Cheers

Posted by: Hamilcar Barca | Dec 6 2022 15:07 utc | 38

DJ [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/12/us-gives-up-on-crimea.html#comments[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/12/us-gives-up-on-crimea.html#comments ...renewables, shifting away from diesel is taking place...now is "pushed" by much higher energy prices (so solar, wind etc. can compete more...however windturbines, solar panels sometimes are "made in China"...). 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2022 at 11:19pm

DJ, 

-It looks like Ukraine managed to attack two major Russian air bases with old soviet-era drones. 

Ukraine may NOT have needed any western support for such an attack-maybe even info on the air bases in Russia goes back to Soviet times...Military Summary pointed out even Moscow is only around 500 kilometers from Ukraine borders...

Goal of the Ukraine attacks on those bases may be to show Russia Ukraine can hit targets deep inside Russia...[url]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-141[/url] or https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-141 numbers are very limited...Is Ukraine building more longer range "drones" ? With "limited" foreign help (UK, Poland ?) ???

Russia claims part/most of the damage was the outcome of Russian air defence...

The Yemen war -in which Houthi's managed to attack deep inside Saudi Arabia- may indicate simple weapons (sometimes the main part is a rain pipe...) can be effective...(In the Yemen War a western claim is "Iran sending in weapons"...however Saudi/other navies block Yemen sea routes...Iran may send military engineers/know how...). 

My impression is the US wants to "limit" the war-does NOT provide longer distance weapons...Also more modern fighters are NOT going to see use in Ukraine...

Some countries however follow their own agenda...Poland is -in many ways- much "closer" to Ukraine (with very likely over 10,000 Polish "fighters" in Ukraine, millions of Ukrainians in Poland) then Germany is...

-Large scale Russian attacks yesterday seem NOT to have been meant to destroy electricity supply. Military targets, (repair, storage, transport) were the goal. 


DJ-My impression is -even with "hard words" - the west starts realizing the need to "talk with the rest"...So Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, India, maybe even Israel may play a role in "west-rest talks"...

G7 "price caps" are useless if no one is following them...Weapon supplies for Ukraine is "over its limits"....Global trade may be able to go on WITHOUT the west....(or the $/€)...

These "contacts" may mix with military actions "to make a point/underline positions"...But the "talks" are both very fragile and may -from the western side- miss coordination...(So maybe Germany could agree on keeping Sweden/Finland on a NATO waitinglist...while the UK, Poland want to speed up the proces...). 

Türkiye is one of the other "complications" going for their own goals "in between" the west and the rest...A Turkish invasion into Syria/Iraq (against the Kurds) could derail...see an Arab-Turkish conflict...(just as an example...When you look at Russian-Turkish relations the last 300 years they had lots of wars...Greece is also a factor...). 

-DJ, Most countries now may want to get out of conflicts...the price/risks are getting to large...The US would like to keep a dominant position...may be willing to sacrifice UK/EU for that...(by making an agreement on global energy trade...maybe even "put the US-petro-$ in a basket for a new global payment system"....We now see an US-EU competition on "green industry"...). 

Change is a risky proces...

The major conflict is NOT a Russia-NATO conflict...China, India-Asia is becoming the dominant global player...the west has no realistic other options then to accept that...Conflicts may only delay the proces..NOT be able to stop it...(and if you can not beat them-joining them may be the better option...This does NOT mean accepting all views, but basic trade agreements may do...). 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2022 at 10:32am

Unclear info of attack on two russian airbases, Russia attacks Ukraine infrastructure;

[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/ua%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%A6-ru%F0%9F%87%B7%F0%9F%87%BA-nato%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B3-reports.17695/page-5[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/ua%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%A6-ru%F0%9F%87%B7%F0%9F%87%BA-nato%F0%9F%87%BA%F0%9F%87%B3-reports.17695/page-5 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/military/bases-deep-inside-russia-rocked-explosions-new-wave-airstrikes-pummel-ukraine[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/military/bases-deep-inside-russia-rocked-explosions-new-wave-airstrikes-pummel-ukraine 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/conflicting-reports-one-possible-two-airbases-hit-deep-inside-russia[/url]

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/12/ukraine-crimea-bridge-repaired-no-ammunition-drone-attacks-in-russia-.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/12/ukraine-crimea-bridge-repaired-no-ammunition-drone-attacks-in-russia-.html ;

This morning an explosion took place at a Russian airfield in the Volga region. The Russian military now says that it was from the debris of an Ukrainian drone that its air defenses had shot down:

AZ @AZgeopolitics - 17:13 UTC · 5 Dec 2022

🇺🇦✈️🇷🇺The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation: On the morning of December 5, the Kiev regime attempted to strike with jet drones at the "Dyagilevo" and "Engels"airfields.

Ukrainian UAVs flying at low altitude in the Ryazan and Saratov regions were intercepted by air defense means

Three Russian soldiers who were at the airfield lost their lives as a result of an attack by the Kiev regime, four more were wounded and taken to hospitals.

Ukrainian UAVs fired at Russian airfields were intercepted by air defense means.

As a result of the fall and explosion of the wreckage of Ukrainian UAVs at Russian airfields, the hull plating of two aircraft was slightly damaged.

Video showed that the explosion in Saratov took place on the ground. Air defense usually explodes a drone while it is still flying. I therefore doubt that the Russian report of this is completely truthful.

One also wonders where Ukraine found jet powered, long range suicide drones. It strongly doubt that these were homemade or will become available in higher quantities.

-

The Ukraine drone attacks were carried by 1000km/h rocket drones from the 1980s(?). They were flown at low altitude to escape Russian radar.

"The strike on the airfield in Engels was carried out by the Soviet UAV Tu-141 "Swift" - military commander Alexander Kots. "Swift" is able to overcome 1000 km in about 1 hour. Flight altitude up to 6 km."

https://t.me/Slavyangrad/23720

These have been used before in Donbas.

Posted by: Arfur Mo | Dec 5 2022 17:58 utc | 1

-

TU-141 drone. Used in USSR 1979-1989. Ukraine acquired a batch in 2014. Wonder who arranged that. Were flown into Donbas 2014, 2015. Total number produced was 142 so there are not large fleets of these.

One thing we all should have picked up this past year is that drones are simple. US has been coasting on Tomahawks basically as primitive as this TU-141. But it is simple. Ukraine is too messed up to produce much, their friends could supply them.

Imaginable Ukraine did this off their own bat. More likely this is Washington seeking a wider war. Only good way to stop this is to hit the head of the snake. Washington would love for Russia to do that. They still believe they can take the gloves off and defeat Russia. Does the sun rise in the east? That is how US thinks about US miitary might

Posted by: oldhippie | Dec 5 2022 18:06 utc | 4

DJ-Does Ukraine have (Russian/Soviet era ???) UAV/drones able to do that kind of attacks ? [url]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-141[/url] or https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-141 ;The Tupolev Tu-141 Strizh ("Swift"; RussianТуполев Ту-141 Стриж) is a Soviet reconnaissance drone that historically served with the Soviet Army during the late 1970s and 1980s, as well as the Ukrainian Armed Forces since 2014.[1][2]

The Tu-141 was in Soviet service from 1979 to 1989, mostly on the western borders of the Soviet Union.[citation needed]

It was pressed back into service by the Ukrainian Air Force after 2014 for the War in Donbas.[1][2]

On 8 March 2022, a Tu-141 reconnaissance drone was reported crashed in Ukraine.[3]

About midnight on 10 March 2022, during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, a Tu-141 crashed in front of a student campus in ZagrebCroatia, over 550 kilometres (340 mi) from Ukraine.[4][5] Before it crashed, it had flown over Romania and Hungary.[6] There were no casualties. The Ukrainian Air Force said that the drone did not belong to them.[7][8] The Russian Embassy in Zagreb stated that Russian forces had not had such drones in their arsenal since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.[9] The Croatian president, Zoran Milanović, said it was clear the drone came from the direction of Ukraine, entering Croatia after flying over Hungary.[10] On 15 March, an undisclosed source close to the MoD of Croatia was cited in the Croatian news magazine Nacional as saying that the investigation had concluded that the crashed drone belonged to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and carried a bomb that was meant for striking Russia's positions, but the drone had strayed off course and crashed after it ran out of fuel.[11]

On 3 July 2022, the governor of the Kursk region wrote on Telegram that “our air defenses shot down two Ukrainian Strizh drones”.[12]


Performance

  • Maximum speed: 1,100 km/h (683 mph, 594 kn)
  • Cruise speed: 1,000 km/h (620 mph, 540 kn)
  • Range: 1,000 km (620 mi, 540 nmi)
  • Service ceiling: 6,000 m (19,700 ft)

Does Russia now want to "finish"Ukraine ? [url]https://liveuamap.com/[/url] or https://liveuamap.com/ (pro western)

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 25 2022 at 1:28am

Maybe part 3 should try to describe "the west"...

DJ-I do understand the US defending the US-petro-dollar...I much less understand the EU getting pulled into a conflict that is damaging the EU likely more then the US...

Then "the west" also has to include Japan-more or less in some ways in the same position as Türkiye...their neighbours do want to see Turkish, Japanese role in the region limited-based on history...Both Türkiye and Japan -now- get energy still from Russia. Türkiye may try to become an energy-hub for Europe/Africa...but Russia and the Arab World, Iran want to keep Türkiye under some controls...

Japan did a lot of damage in the region. Its role was limited in 1945...but colonialsm did not start in 1941-Pearl Harbour...Japan tried to dominate the region since 1900...The 1905 Russia-Japan War was only part of the history...Manchuria-China, Korea did see decades of Japanese terror even before the Pacific part of World War Two started...

Australia, New Zealand -in history- balanced between the US and UK...did join the US in the Vietnam War...however with trade shifting away Australia, New Zealand more and more need the Asian market...So they joined some Asian trade agreements-while also Australia is participating in the Eurovision Song Contest....

China, India may become major investors in Australia mines. Australia, New Zealand food exports...Australia, New Zealand may need to work more with countries like Indonesia., Philippines, Singapore, South Korea to protect their interests...The US may NOT be the right partner for protection of Australia/New Zealand interests (as long as the US is anti China, anti Russia). 

-Europe also is "split up";

-UK did not find alternatives after the Brexit...facing economic collapse. Again-I did write this earlier-Scotland, North of Ireland may leave the UK-become EU member...

-EU itself also is split...

NL used to be an energy exporter...Less gas from NL north now is getting replaced by increase of LNG import-partly from the US...and a large part of that LNG is NOT for Dutch use...Norway/North Sea are major energy sources...Mediterranean Sea also may have oil/gas...part of a conflict between East Mediterranean countries (Israel/Lebanon, Türkiye, Egypt, Libya...). 

Last summer NL did get 25% of its electricity from renewables (solar, wind), Spain 23%...some other countries depend still much more on fossil fuels (most of them in the east of Europe). Also climate wise western Europe may not see extreme cold in the winter...an increasing amount of energy is used for airco's...

Germany may be the major EU country-but it also may be very divided...Bavaria/South Germany has major car fabrication/export...Hamburg/Bremen are major sea ports-need international trade...The Ruhr-area may be the main population center-but its industries are old...its economy is in bad shape...

France did want to go for nuclear energy-but a lot of energyplants also are older...uranium "fuel" needs to be imported...

Most of Europe has "conflicts/gaps" between the urban area's and the rural ones...(part of the NL farmer protests are related to that conflict...NL wants to build more houses-but to reduce nitrogen polution-wanted to decrease farming...New plans also include industry..may even limit air transport. NL is "over active" both in foodproduction and airtransport...Amsterdam Airport is sometimes seen as an extra for London...with good train links...). 

Southern/Eastern Europe is in need of extra EU-help...NW Europe (NL, Germany, Austria, Finland) are subsidizing the rest...(I do think Ukraine joining the EU only would be possible if the US is willing to pay for that...). 

-The US is very divided..."leaders" increased tensions...not bridge the gap...

In general western politics may run out of public support...disconnect with most of the voters...Trying to prohibit political parties (AfD in Germany, fvd in NL) is NOT a sign of strength...in the US legal steps against trump simply underlines the political crisis...does NOT solve it...

The lack of western ability for diplomacy did not only weaken the western position in the world but also may weaken democracy itself...

Public support for "democratic dictatorships" in Russia, China, (even Iran, Syria...) may be growing-with only small segments protesting for more freedoms..Western hijacking of those protests-to start regime change-gives rulers room for repression...

-So how will "the west" move further ? 

EU, US/Canada, Japan, Australia/New Zealand will go different ways...with EU, Japan, Australia/New Zealand one way or another having to find ways to deal with Asia, Africa, Latin America...

I think the Euro/€ could increase its role-maybe in Africa...but later on might be even interesting for South America, Australia/New Zealand to position themselves in a new global trade system...

The US may be becoming isolated again...isolationism was US policy untill 1917...but then with the rest of "the America's" as a US "reserve"...The US/Canada may even do well-not getting involved in all kind of global conflicts...concentrating on their own infrastructure/economy...(Most of US energy production is for US use...The US only would get stronger if it used it resources more wise...Life expectency in China, Cuba by now may be better then in the US...and that is related to how the US is organizing things...). 

Two major problems;

-Pandemics are NOT under control...may get even worse...

-Climate change simply is NOT getting solved...

Both pandemics and climate change could end humans before 2030...only nuclear war may kill us faster...I hope Mutual Assured Destruction may stop us from all out nuclear war...Ukraine/Kiev may still go for a "dirty bomb"...

DJ-I am anti-war...I blame NATO expansionism-politics for the present major crisis...I rather had a "limited NATO/EU" being more constructive then both EU and NATO unable to see limits....

In my opinion Putin is standing for conservative views, fossil fuels...I disagree with those views however a lot of "westerners" may not be that different in view...I see some similarities between Iran, the US and Russia, Saudi Arabia, Poland...religion a very major factor...while in NW Europe religion is "a sideshow"...churches turned into shops, hotels, houses or pulled down...

It is open how things further will develop-lots of uncertanties...China-India are not "the best of friends"...Israel may seek confrontation with Iran...both would worsen the global situation-further weaken the western position...Instability does NOT restore western dominance only brings more chaos....

I hope wise leaders will show up...certainly the west may need them urgently...

End of part 3


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 24 2022 at 11:48pm

part 2, 

DJ-in my view-the basic conflict is between "the west-10%' and "the rest-90%"...The SCO, BRICS now see lots of countries on their waitinglist...from Nigeria, Algeria to Argentina, Nicaragua (a.o. strategic for a possible canal ?), Egypt...OPEC+ did bring global energy-more or less-under Asian control...more then 50% of the global population is living in Asia...

Western sanctions against Iran, Russia did result in more energy trade between Russia and China, India...OPEC countries buying Russian oil to export more of their own oil...Russia increasing energy stocks, refinery capacity...Diesel, Kerosine, Petrol can not be traced back to where it came from...the "west" is now buying Russian energy via Asia at a much higher price...

Just like "NATO can not lose this war" neither can BRICS, SCO "the rest" lose this war....and that may be very dangerous...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/this-site-has-been-hacked-serious-damage-done-techs-working-on-it[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/this-site-has-been-hacked-serious-damage-done-techs-working-on-it DJ-I disagree on a lot of points with HT...but he has been warning for a nuclear war for months...

How to avoid such a nuclear scenario ? 

DJ, There are some claims China did send some military/hardware to Russian forces in Ukraine...I think China has observers in both Ukraine and Syria...working with Russia..

There are much more frontlines then "just" Ukraine..

-In Syria and Iraq Türkiye is moving against the Kurds...not only the Damascus, Bagdad governments are unhappy also both the US and Russia may see it as another step in Turkish nationalistic expansionism...The Arab world would not welcome a "new Ottoman empire"...Erdogan is still in NATO to make NATO serve Turkish goals...While also Erdogan is talking with Russia, Iran...(and Iran and Saudi Arabia are coming closer...). 

-I think Russia and China may be working on "Taiwan-plans"...NOT an invasion but a blockade of sea/air routes to/from Taiwan...To force Taipei/Taiwan to "accept" some basic China-Bejing rules...a.o. acceptance of the Chinese PLA taking over the Taiwan defenses...In such an operation some small islands may see Russian/China invasions/military action...(a few of those islands now seen as part of Japan...). 

-MS mentioned a Russian(+Belarus ?) offensive in western Ukraine would risk war with NATO...border incident(claims) with Poland...DJ..."so what"? From the Russian perspective Russia is already at war with NATO...facing "thousends" of Romanian, Polish, UK, US "volunteers/advisers"....So far Russia/Putin tried to have talks, find agreements...

Some in the west fail to get an alternative for Putin may be much more agressive...an alternative for the CCP in China could also be much more hard line...One of the outcomes of the present crisis is Russia and China moving towards more totalitarian control...the hardliners are winning...

-Both China and India are main energy consumers...Russia, Saudi Arabia (and US) the major energy producers...China, India...both 1,4 billion in population....want to have a bigger part of the global cake...And the "west" will not provide that bigger part...

A part of this global war has to do with economy, currencies, energy trade...DJ-We-the west-still can get energy from other countries then Russia (however Russia may replace the export by its energy products...so "we buy LNG from China" -China is buying LNG from Russia...Again, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia are importing (cheap) Russian energy to increase export of their own energy at higher prices to the west...)

Since the basic conflict is "west against the rest"; the west trying to dominate the globe...China, India, Brasil/Latin America, Africa, Asia more and more may unite...They may choose THIS WINTER !!!! to stop export of energy to the west...Because they disagree with the western agenda...

The west did keep most of the rest poor...(Even the right wing PM of Italy attacked France over this...the main reason African refugees end up in Italy is western trade...). The real way out of poverty for the rest is NOT in trying to make "deals" with the west...that did not work since de-colonisation in the 60's and 70's...The west is neo-colonialist..replacing western rule by elite pro-western rule.."false independence"...

The SCO, BRICS (etc) promis "global fair trade" on an equal basis...without a major country telling others what to do...Brasil, Russia, India, China. South Africa (BRICS)  have a sort of balance with room for lots of other countries (Pakistan, Indonesia, Philippines, Argentina, Nigeria, Mexico...)..

So-to "kill" the petro-$, end neo-colonial rule "sanction the west" ....

DJ-Most western countries now already face high inflation, energy/healthcare issues...spending cuts further will increase social unrest...More refugees (not only millions from Ukraine...Erdogan/Türkiye also has millions of refugees it is willing to "export"...lots of people trying to come to Europe/US in the (false) hope of a better live-get away from climate change, drug wars...tens-of-thousends of these refugees die on their way...building walls, push back refugees into the sea/river is how "the west"deals with human rights...) are "baked in" ..

So-the end goal of most of the rest is collapse of a neo-colonial west...

Non western countries are NOT united in many fronts...India-Pakistan tensions may be used by the US/NATO to break up an Asian power grab...Restarting a Korean War to try to divide Asia further is another scenario...(DJ-However Korea was a Japan colony till 1945..South Korea may reposition itself...). 

"We live in interesting times"

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 24 2022 at 10:50pm

DJ, 

I try to make sense of the international war/economy/politics situation. With the Ukraine war resulting in so far 10 million out of 40 million Ukrainians seeking safety-most-in Europe it should be clear it also has pandemic/healthcare links. 

Even tough I express my own opinion-I would like to stay out of pointless discussions...Other views/ideas are welcome if they have some basis...

Maybe first "political views"; Russia/Putin may be close to conservative, in some points "US republican" "UK conservatives" views...on the war opposition want MORE decisive military action...The Russian orthodox church is a major factor in Russia-wants to stay neutral-however also protect orthodoxy (against catholicism from Poland, Islam from IS-like groups in Syria, Iraq). 

The "west" claims NATO expansion was not a provocation or break of agreements...In 1990 the west made an agreement with the Soviet Union...that country ended a year later...The "rest" of the world has a different view...

Since 1972 global energy was linked to the US$...any country trying to do major energy deals outside the US=petro-$ faced a coup/regime change. NATO became more and more a tool for such a goal after 1991. 

-Present Ukraine situation/perspective

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1AQYz1x5Vc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1AQYz1x5Vc Military Summary (MS) has a good story-partially based on [url]https://www.understandingwar.org/[/url] or https://www.understandingwar.org/ 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/11/ukraine-lights-out-no-water-and-soon-no-heat-.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/11/ukraine-lights-out-no-water-and-soon-no-heat-.html (MoA)

DJ...Using refugees as a "means of pressure" is not new-it is also a war crime....However another Russian goal in striking the Ukraine electricity network is to unable all military transports. Ukraine has some diesel trains-but control over the rail network also was "out"...

MS expects Russia to redeploy its forces once again...building defense lines on the present frontlines and attacking Ukraine on a weak spot-with Ukraine being unable to move its forces in large enough numbers to make a difference. MS claims Russia may decide to take over Kiev-put another regime in control over Ukraine...(DJ arrest/kill zelensky and pro-western clique ?). 

I think MS has some points;

-building defensive positions by Russia would enable to redeploy forces -with mobilized extra forces it can change the war...

-Russia may see losses going up, this war is costly...however the main price is in lives lost...DJ-most of those lives on the pro-Russian side will be from Ukraine-Russians (Luhansk, Donetsk militia now part of the Russian army). So there is a pressure in Russia to "finish the war"...

-DJ, I think also (new) Russian allies expect Russia to "deal with the matter"....The way NATO pulled out of Afghanistan shocked countries like Saudi Arabia...Russia has to show it can win wars...

-DJ, my question is on Russia taking over Kiev-will that end the war or escalate the war even further ? 

DJ-The main reason why we are still in this war is "the west" wanted Ukraine, Georgia in NATO (Bucharest meeting of NATO 2008). I think also biden claims Putin made trump US president-so biden wants regime change in Moscow...An insane motive....

NATO "can not lose this war"...DJ-or what ? End of NATO ? End of "western dominance of the globe"? 

My fear is Russia going all out to "finish Ukraine" may bring even further western escalation...Since "we" may be running out of some weapons, NATO already has lots of "volunteers" in Ukraine (maybe one could claim NATO, Georgian forces are already fighting pro-Russian forces in Ukraine...but "in name" they are "under Kiev control" ...while Kiev is under NATO control"). 

So, if another major winter offensive by Russia in Ukraine would push NATO into further escalation what then ? 

End of part 1


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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