Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
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bruss01
Adviser Group Joined: January 12 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 448 |
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Posted: January 13 2006 at 2:57pm |
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Hello all, I'm a recent join-ee to this board, but I've been following the Avian Influenza topic for the past year or so. I feel that I have a fairly comprehensive understanding of the topic, but it seems like not many of the people I come into contact with everyday, do. I wanted to get something to present to these people, something concise and understandable, that presented the facts in a clear and cohesive manner in a conversational tone that even the most ADD adult would be able to get thru without a dose of ritalin. I wanted some examples of compelling situations that would command attention, without being so "over the top" as to incite disbelief, while still conveying the serious nature of the situation. Something to "connect the dots" so to speak, a tying together in logical fashion all the separate bits of information on Avian Flu and drawing some obvious conclusions. I have found nothing that fits that bill - and so I undertook to write one. The post that follows is my attempt at constructing such a document. I trust that many here are as well informed (or perhaps better informed) as myself, and can help catch any factual errors or add any instructive points that I may have missed. Any constructive criticism is welcomed. I confess that in addition to simply caring about people and wanting them to avoid hardship, my motives are not entirely altruistic. One of my over-riding concerns is that during a pandemic crisis, those who are not part of their individual solution, become part of the collective problem. The fewer people who are part of the collective problem, are fewer people I personally have to worry about becoming a problem to my community, to my neighborhood, and to my household. "I told you so" will be cold comfort if we who take this seriously turn out to be right. MODERATOR EDIT: I MOVED PRIMER TO STICKY THREAD "WHAT IS BIRD FLU FOR NEWBIES" Edited by SophiaZoe |
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bruss01
Adviser Group Joined: January 12 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 448 |
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Sorry about the low contrast font - Moderator, can you make it more readable? Until it's changed, readers can highlight it with the cursor for better readability.
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Tired
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 13 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 170 |
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I used the cursor to highlight and read........
And I thought that I couldnt possibly get anymore freaked out...... Tonight should be lovely with all of the tossing and turning in bed while my mind replays worst case senarios over and over.......... |
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Better to be safe than sorry.... |
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Ralphy
Valued Member Joined: January 12 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 4 |
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Re - be responsible for your own food. As well as no refrigeration allow for no power to cook. Either you need your own power (camping stove and lots of fuel) to cook (rice, pasta) or choose items edible without cooking (muesli, I believe most of you guys call it "granola" etc). Re mutation, recombination etc - the difference really does matter. Either way we are sure to end up with something that spreads - but if mutation it is likely to be similar in seriousness to H5N1 avian now (high kill). If it comes from recombination human and avian it is a throw of the dice anywhere on the line from current human to current avian. We could get lucky and end up with nothing more than a very widespread seasonal flu. It will still kill a lot, but not a high %age. If we get lucky twice than this will give some immunity for subsequent waves, whether they are a different recombination or a mutation (of either the previous wave or of the Avian one year on). Of course this doesn't mean you shouldn't prepare - assuming the best - well we aqre back to ants and grasshoppers... unless you enjoy the feeling of playing enforced Russian Roulette. |
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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great post.
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Ralphy
Valued Member Joined: January 12 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 4 |
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I also meant to say that I like the summary bruss01 - but it will be hard to get the grasshoppers to listen even then
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IdahoGirl
Valued Member Joined: December 29 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 34 |
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libbyalex
Adviser Group Joined: December 20 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 795 |
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This is an excellent post. I loved the marbles analogy! I just want to be able to print it out. Is there a way to make it more readable? Libby
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meewee
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 595 |
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I couldn't have said it better myself...THANK_YOU! meewee |
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God Bless us all!
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Bruss... I AM SO GRATEFULL THAT YOU FOUND YOUR WAY HERE!!! And yes, I am shouting on purpose! Your posts blow me away. They are cogent, well-informed and reasoned. THANK YOU for the above! |
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meewee
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 595 |
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Another thought...If you chose to bury your head in the sand...think what is left up in the air...your A**! That is all that will be left to show what you possibly believe you really think about the current events that are coming down. And you cannot live on that! Meewee |
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God Bless us all!
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Sure2Survive
V.I.P. Member Joined: December 15 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 77 |
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bruss01, Best post I have yet read! Write a book for us! You are a spectacular writer, whats your occupation? Just curious. Thanks Again |
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Sucess requires eye's wide open
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Bruss there are a few mistakes in your Primer. The flu that comes
around every year. It is not H1N1 it is H3N2.
Fifty percent of those sick people admitted to hospital have died from Avian Influenza. That does not in any way equate to fifty percent of those who get it. The number who have had H5N1 Bird Flu is unknown as many have had it and did not even know they were sick. The number may be in the millions. Wherever antibody tests have been run, they show many people with H5N1 antibodies. In India, the poultry workers were tested and they showed positive for H5N1 antibodies. Tests were run on peasants in China and it is estimated that millions of them have antibodies to H5N1. Cold viruses are rhinoviruses (positive single stranded RNA). Flu viruses are Orthomyxoviridae (negative single-stranded RNA) a virus family that attacks vertibrates. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virus_classification Though it may be possible, I don't think there could be much exchange of genetic material between the two type of viruses. They coil different ways. Perhaps Dr. Niman would know.
Edited by JoeNeubarth |
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bruss01
Adviser Group Joined: January 12 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 448 |
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JoeNeubarth, Thanks for the feedback... although I appreciate the kind words and compliments from the many who responded, I am no expert... just a guy trying to find out some answers and pass them along to others, hopefully in a condensed form that is understandable by the common everyday person. While I do want the primer to be correct (free from glaring errors) I am more concerned about being conceptually correct. I remember hearing a news article about some kind of genetically modified plants that were being raised in a field, and plant researchers discovered nearby weeds of a completely different species that ended up with the same modified gene - How? Plant viruses transferred the gene from one species to another. I thought perhaps GM was the genie in the bottle when I first heard of it... it would grant our every dream come true, I hoped. When I heard this account, I was stricken by the thougth that our genie bottle had turned out to be Pandora's box by mistake. Virii can and do swap and transfer genetic material between themselves and other species. As far as the comparability and potential for genetic swapping between common cold and the H5N1 virus, I think it's less important precicely what existing human-to-human virus we are talking about, than it is about the concept that virii do in fact swap genetic material in ways that cause them to change their characteristics. Again, keeping in mind that we want this to be understandable to 5th graders and up without being burried in so much technical material that the main point is diluted or lost. Again, if I've made a conceptual blunder please set me straight. Oversimplification is one thing, outright balderdash is something else entirely and not somewhere I want to go. Before people can act, they must understand. It has to be kept on a level that people can relate to. Go to http://www.informatics-review.com/FAQ/reading.html for a sad commentary on the reading comprehension level of the average American these days. I believe that you are correct about the H3 strains, but am I correct in believing that they derive more or less directly from the H1 strains, rather than arising independently through animal or avian hosts such as the H5 strain appears to be doing? That was the point I was trying to get at in a non-technical sort of way. If that is not the case I may revise that portion. The challenge to the 50% mortality is something I have heard challenged before. There was word about some Japanese who came down with what seemed to be a mild flu, that had some people thinking that H5N1 wasn't such a tiger... then it turned out they were actually infected by some less virulent strain of virus. As far a some people in Turkey having H5N1 specific antibodies, I think it's difficult to know how they developed those antibodies. For instance, my blood is coursing right now with pneumonia antibodies, yet I've never had pneumonia. I was exposed to pneumonia germs in inert form - a vaccine. Is it possible that these people were exposed to H5N1 virus in weakened or inert form thru dust or imperfect sanitation? Thru eating partially cooked chickens that had the virus? Who knows? I hope that if this virus ever goes H2H, it is a WHOLE LOT LESS than 50% fatal, but it's too early to know that. Is it better to have people too careful, or too careless? I know which side of that equation I'd prefer to err on. I'm having trouble seeing how we would get the dire warnings being broadcast on pandemicflu.gov if only 1 person out of a hundered had anything to worry about - warnings such as the municipal water being out. That would take a pretty big societal impact to cause, yet they are treating it as a serious possibility, serious enough to announce to John Q Public, saying he needs to be prepared for that. That's the sort of thing that makes me hesitant to discount the 50% mortality figure. Thanks again for taking the time to offer a thoughtful critique, I look forward to any other help you can offer. Maybe some others in the forum can comment on these and any other maters of concern. Thanks everyone for the feedback and input. Edited by bruss01 |
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Paul
V.I.P. Member Joined: December 10 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 157 |
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Right on the button bruss, It's amazing that the common flu
hasn't been present in one of the bird flu victums already. It
certainly seems more than likely to occur soon and if that doesn't
happen the mutation from random chance is just as scary. I'll
really be surprised if we dodge this bomb. For once I would like
to be wrong. Dad gummit!!!
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Seeking like minded individuals that would like to have a back up plan if this thing really takes hold. I'm in the midst of buying some very remote land and I need some earthy people to join me.
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Loved the "Bird Flu Primer". Your're a gifted writer... riveting. |
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Madison
Valued Member Joined: January 12 2006 Location: Canada Status: Offline Points: 7 |
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bruss01 wrote:
Avian flu is fatal to about half the people who come down with it -- and seek medical attention. Many people think there may be others who contract avian flu and are not sick enough to seek medical attention. They therefore go uncounted. |
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Cogito Ergo Spud - I Think Therefore I Yam
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