Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)

PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
123456
Forum Home Forum Home > Main Forums > General Discussion
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Genocide by climate collapse
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Genocide by climate collapse

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Genocide by climate collapse
    Posted: December 03 2023 at 12:18am

DJ-Genocide by war is pretty clear; A US made bunker-buster 2500 kg bomb dropped on populated Gaza houses killing dozens of Palestinians is a war crime...Doing that over and over again-so far very likely killing around 20,000 Palestinians is genocide...

Also "genocide by pandemic" is clear. Not providing security (PPE, testing) and "let the virus do its thing" in care centers, prisons, poor area's -at the end- resulting in much higher excess deaths for people kept poor- is genocide...Worldwide most of the over 40 million people that died from CoViD so far were poor...

Genocide by climate collapse may be harder to define...extreme weather is part of history...

An increase of extreme weather-again killing most people kept poor-may be a "statistic"...Another aspect is better communication/warnings, better preparations may save a lot of lives. 

[url]https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health[/url] or https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health 

Climate change is impacting health in a myriad of ways, including by leading to death and illness from increasingly frequent extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, storms and floods, the disruption of food systems, increases in zoonoses and food-, water- and vector-borne diseases, and mental health issues.

 Furthermore, climate change is undermining many of the social determinants for good health, such as livelihoods, equality and access to health care and social support structures. 

These climate-sensitive health risks are disproportionately felt by the most vulnerable and disadvantaged, including women, children, ethnic minorities, poor communities, migrants or displaced persons, older populations, and those with underlying health conditions.

DJ, The "rich" create the problem however do not "live" with it...If it comes close they simply move...

-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derna_dam_collapses[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derna_dam_collapses ;

The Derna dam collapses were the catastrophic failures of two dams in Derna, Libya on the night of 10–11 September 2023, in the aftermath of Storm Daniel. The dam collapses released an estimated 30 million cubic metres (39 million cubic yards) of water,[4] causing flooding downstream as the Wadi Derna overflowed its banks.[5][6] The floods partially destroyed the city of Derna. As of 18 September, estimates for the number of casualties range from 5,300 to 20,000 people.[7] The event was the second-deadliest dam failure in history, after the 1975 Banqiao Dam failure in China.

DJ Lots of aspects;

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Daniel#Meteorological_history[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Daniel#Meteorological_history ;

 Climate warming may also have influenced mid-latitude atmospheric blocking in the summer, which resulted in Storm Daniel and another cold-core low that caused flooding in Spain.[15]

-Storm Daniel may NOT have been the strongest [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean_tropical-like_cyclone#Climatological_statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean_tropical-like_cyclone#Climatological_statistics we did see more "Medi-canes" (27) between 2000 and 2010 than between 2011-2020 (20)...

-The main reason why the storm did kill that many was that Libya had become a failed state after the NATO invasion and murder of Gadaffi...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derna_dam_collapses#Warnings[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derna_dam_collapses#Warnings the dam collapse was the main reason for the massive loss of lives...

Prior to the storm, residents were prevented from leaving their homes after authorities imposed a precautionary curfew on 10 September 2023.[23][failed verification]

So people also were prevented to seek higher ground...

DJ The Derna-flooding may illustrate "genocide by climate collapse" difficulty...often it is more complex...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_European_floods[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_European_floods ;

In July 2021, several European countries were affected by severe floods. Some were catastrophic, causing deaths and widespread damage. The floods started in the United Kingdom as flash floods causing some property damage and inconvenience. Later floods affected several river basins across Europe including Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Switzerland.[8] At least 243 people died in the floods, including 196 in Germany,[9] 43 in Belgium,[2] two in Romania,[3] one in Italy[4] and one in Austria.[5]

Another more complex story. Warnings did not come in time/people underestimated risks-ignoring warnings...But also part of the damage/deaths may have been prevented if the rain could have gone to reservoirs...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 03 2023 at 1:25am

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina ;

Hurricane Katrina was a devastating Category 5 Atlantic hurricane that caused 1,836 fatalities and damage estimated between $97.4 billion to $145.5 billion in late August 2005, particularly in the city of New Orleans and its surrounding area.[1] At the time, it was the costliest tropical cyclone on record, later tied by Hurricane Harvey of 2017. Katrina was the twelfth tropical cyclone, the fifth hurricane, and the third major hurricane of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It was also the fourth-most intense Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in the contiguous United States, gauged by barometric pressure.

-

The largest loss of life in Hurricane Katrina was due to flooding caused by engineering flaws in the flood protection system, particularly the levee[3] around the city of New Orleans.[4] Eventually, 80% of the city, as well as large areas in neighboring parishes, were flooded for weeks.[5] The flooding destroyed most of New Orleans's transportation and communication facilities, leaving tens of thousands of people who did not evacuate the city prior to landfall with little access to food, shelter, and other basic necessities.

-

After the storm, multiple investigations concluded that the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which had designed and built the region's levees decades earlier, was responsible for the failure of the flood-control systems.[6] However, federal courts later ruled that the Corps could not be held financially liable due to sovereign immunity in the Flood Control Act of 1928.[7]

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide ;

Genocide is the intentional destruction of a people[a] in whole or in part. 

 In 1948, the United Nations Genocide Convention defined genocide as any of five "acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group". These five acts were: killing members of the group, causing them serious bodily or mental harm, imposing living conditions intended to destroy the group, preventing births, and forcibly transferring children out of the group. Victims are targeted because of their real or perceived membership of a group, not randomly.[1][2]

There are claims [url]https://abcnews.go.com/WNT/HurricaneKatrina/story?id=1081329&page=1[/url] or https://abcnews.go.com/WNT/HurricaneKatrina/story?id=1081329&page=1 real estate developers welcomed the destruction of poor neighbourhoods. They could build for the rich...

In New Orleans, a third of the residents live below the poverty line. The very poorest live on the lowest land, south of Lake Pontchartrain, where the floodwater is now up to their rooftops.

"It's just a thing that always happens," said resident Joanne Murphy. "The ones that has the least, get hit the most."

Rebuilding will be challenging since most of the families don't have any insurance.

"If nobody gets me any kind of assistance," said Timothy Andrews, who lost his home, "I'm just going to have to do it piece by piece, wood by wood, paycheck by paycheck."

A lot of them simply did not return...

[url]https://items.ssrc.org/understanding-katrina/hurricanes-poverty-and-vulnerability-an-historical-perspective/[/url] or https://items.ssrc.org/understanding-katrina/hurricanes-poverty-and-vulnerability-an-historical-perspective/ ;

Katrina’s devastation is of course linked to specific environmental, economic, social, and political circumstances in the region—for New Orleans, its position below sea level, its high poverty rate, the racial dimensions of that poverty, funding cuts for levee maintenance, among other factors, have all helped shape the effects of the storm. 

But in a larger context, the relationship between poverty and disaster that has been emphasized in recent days is not unique to New Orleans and Hurricane Katrina. The history of hurricanes in what can be called the Greater Caribbean—the islands of the West Indies and the states along southern Atlantic and Gulf coasts—offers repeated evidence that the poor have often felt the effects of hurricanes most severely. 

The following focuses mostly on the experience with hurricanes during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, primarily in the British colonies, but concludes with some examples drawn from the nineteenth and twentieth-century United States.

So [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Maria[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Maria ;

Hurricane Maria was a deadly Category 5 hurricane that devastated the northeastern Caribbean in September 2017, particularly in the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico, which accounted for 2,975 of the 3,059 deaths.[1][2] It is the deadliest and costliest hurricane to strike the island of Puerto Rico, and is the deadliest hurricane to strike the country of Dominica and the U.S. Virgin Islands territory.

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Maria#Criticism_of_U.S._government_response[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Maria#Criticism_of_U.S._government_response ;

The U.S. government hurricane response was criticized as inadequate and slow.[260] The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) did not immediately waive the Jones Act for Puerto Rico, which prevented the commonwealth from receiving any aid and supplies from non-U.S.-flagged vessels from U.S. ports (shipments from non-US ports were unaffected).[261] A DHS Security spokesman said that there would be enough U.S. shipping for Puerto Rico, and that the limiting factors would be port capacity and local transport capacity.[262][263][264] The Jones Act was ultimately waived for a period of ten days starting on September 28 following a formal request by Puerto Rico Governor Rosselló.[265]

and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Maria_death_toll_controversy[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Maria_death_toll_controversy ;

Infrared satellite animation of Hurricane Maria making landfall in Puerto Rico on September 20

Hurricane Maria struck Puerto Rico as a high-end Category 4 hurricane on September 20, 2017, resulting in the island's most severe natural disaster in modern history.[1] The entire island suffered devastating effects with the entire population losing access to electricity, the majority losing access to clean water, tens of thousands of homes destroyed, and road infrastructure left crippled. A series of cascading infrastructure failures compounded the direct effects of the hurricane. Lack of aid, electricity, water, and access to medical care endangered many people; elderly and poor residents were most impacted.

DJ The genocide-aspect may be in;

-Not enough disaster preparation

-Not providing help directly after the disaster

-Exploiting the outcome (building of houses for the rich in once poor area's)

Not only did the storms kill a lot of poor (often Black, Hispanic) but also displace them...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 03 2023 at 1:55am

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heatwave[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heatwave ;

The 2003 European heat wave saw the hottest summer recorded in Europe since at least 1540.[2][3] France was hit especially hard. The heat wave led to health crises in several countries and combined with drought to create a crop shortfall in parts of Southern Europe. The death toll has been estimated at more than 70,000.[4][5]

The [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_heatwave[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_heatwave ;

The 2006 European heat wave was a period of exceptionally hot weather that arrived at the end of June 2006 in certain European countries. The United KingdomFranceBelgium, the NetherlandsLuxembourgItalyPoland, the Czech RepublicHungaryGermany and western parts of Russia were most affected.

may have killed close to 3500 people.

It only did get worse...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_European_heatwaves[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_European_heatwaves ;

In 2023, Europe has been affected by heat waves. The most significant of these so far has been the named heat wave, Cerberus Heatwave, which is expected to bring the hottest temperatures ever recorded in Europe. Starting on 10 July 2023, the record-breaking Cerberus anticyclone affected many European countries, with the effects felt most severely in parts of Southeast and Southwest Europe such as CyprusGreeceItaly, and Spain. The private Italian weather website iLMeteo named the extreme weather event after the hound of Hades from Greek mythology, and although some reports link the naming to the Italian Meteorological Society, the society's president said that they "absolutely don’t use it".[1]

It is one of the first major named heatwaves in history; temperatures were predicted to exceed 48 °C (118 °F) and break the record for the hottest ever recorded in Europe. The European Space Agency predicted temperatures in Italy exceeding 50 °C (122 °F). The event also led to record-breaking high temperatures in the Arctic, following a week of the hottest global average temperatures ever recorded. Several regional temperature records have also been broken, and the heatwave has prompted health warnings and government action in several countries.

-

Scientists have attributed the 2023 heat waves to human-made climate change.[6][7] During each day in July 2023, two billion people experience heat conditions made at least three times more likely due to climate change and 6.5 billion people experienced this impact at least one day in this month. The heatwaves caused severe damage in southern US, Southern Europe, South and southeast Asia.[8]

Heatwaves becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change are a big problem for Europe. The heatwaves in the year 2003 killed 70,000 people, while in the record breaking summer of 2022, 61,672 people died. The mortality was 56% higher among women in comparison to men. The countries with the highest rates of mortality were ItalyGreeceSpain and Portugal. According to one climate researcher Hicham Achebak: "The fact that more than 61,600 people in Europe died of heat stress in the summer of 2022, even though, unlike in 2003, many countries already had active prevention plans in place, suggests that the adaptation strategies currently available may still be insufficient,". In the future heat related mortality can be significantly higher. According to NASA senior scientist Katherine Calvin: "Future warming depends on future emissions".[9]

DJ, indirect deaths because of food/water problems may not be included. And again most of the "excess deaths" will be the poor...

Wid fires killing fire fighters but also people that can not escape 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hawaii_wildfires[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hawaii_wildfires +100 deaths

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Australian_bushfire_season[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Australian_bushfire_season ;

Deaths
  • 34 direct[13][14]
  • 445 indirect (smoke inhalatio

of course air quality is yet another aspect of climate collapse genocide...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 23 2023 at 2:08am

DJ, Today may bring 13C/50+F..."very mild" -W3- Warm, Windy, Wet day...in fact 2023 may be the warmest and most wet day in many places...wind energy record high...Coming 2024 will break that record-based a.o. on very warm oceans...

So in itself [url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/12/high-tides-and-storm-pia-bring-flooding-to-dutch-coastal-towns/[/url] or https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/12/high-tides-and-storm-pia-bring-flooding-to-dutch-coastal-towns/ ;

The combination of high tides and strong winds brought by storm Pia led to overnight flooding in several parts of the Netherlands on Thursday night, and storm surge barriers all along the coast were closed.

The Maeslantkering, the 420 metre flood defence barrier at Hoek van Holland closed automatically for the first time because of the high water but opened again in the early hours of the morning. 

-[url]https://www.gld.nl/nieuws/8067711/water-blijft-maar-stijgen-waterschappen-grijpen-in[/url] or https://www.gld.nl/nieuws/8067711/water-blijft-maar-stijgen-waterschappen-grijpen-in ;

In the coming week, it will continue to rain and the water level will rise. The peak is now expected to be on December 28. Then the water in the Rhine is almost 15 meters above NAP at Lobith, report the Gelderland water boards. The water boards are taking measures in various places in the province. They also give tips on how to take a closer look at the high water.

are not that remarkable...

But rivers end up in the sea...If stormy winds push sea/ocean water towards the coast high outflow of rivers may become a problem...

If we also would get a "more than average" amount of rain...where does all that water has to go ? 

Already about 20% of NL potatoes are rotten in the mud...storm and hail may have damaged fruits, glass houses...Logistics was disrupted...

-------

Spain did see temperatures close to 30C, northern Africa even 30C+...with 20C a normal at this time of year...It does not take a clear disaster to kill a lot of people...

W3- Warm-Wet-Windy may be "slow killers"....giving also room to [url]https://www.wur.nl/en/research-results/research-institutes/bioveterinary-research/show-bvr/bluetongue-found-in-dutch-dog.htm[/url] or https://www.wur.nl/en/research-results/research-institutes/bioveterinary-research/show-bvr/bluetongue-found-in-dutch-dog.htm ...

The basic idea was dogs do not catch that disease...If one dog test positive how big is the blue tongue problem ? 

M-pox was supposed to be limited to Africa most...we would not expect malaria, cholera to show up again in NL...However both diseases were detected less than 100 years ago in NL...[url]https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaria[/url] or https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaria (Malaria was a problem in NL till 1959 !) 

So-on top of weather problems and an ongoing pandemic related health crisis we may also see all kinds of diseases showing up -both in humans and animals- we now even may not think of....

-------

To keep this close to home...in 2024 summer we may see very high temperatures and drought...That much rivers could almost run dry...bringing problems for drinking water, cooling water (energy)  and logistics...

Very hot days do give also problems on railroads and the roadsystem...So less riverboat-transport may NOT be replaced by more transport over land...

Both water and food reserves are needed to deal with problems...

Neo-liberal governments think it is a job for the "market economy"...of course this will push up prices even further...

-------

Main stream "media"  (msm) love to talk about sealevel rise in 2100...the main problems are very much closer both in time and place...

YES there may also be extreme "sensational" weather..."super"storms "good for headlines"...msm do NOT link that to climate collapse...all just "natural"...even some professional weather people may say "we do see storms all the time"....only linking part of the problem to climate collapse...

And -YES- climate has been changing all the time...we no longer live in an ice-age...The problem however is the speed of changes and the effects of it...

Three main killers;

-heat itself

-water shortage

-food problems

and NOT by 2100 but we may already be in this crisis NOW !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 30 2023 at 1:04am

A few NL-items, since it may reflect a much wider worry...

[url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/12/trust-in-government-still-low-18-say-system-needs-overthrowing/[/url] or https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/12/trust-in-government-still-low-18-say-system-needs-overthrowing/ DJ-There is a "political crisis"...in itself the "gap" may be not that new...however the depth of the crisis may be "serious"...Politics kicking down lots of cans down the road-serving "donors" and NOT working in public interest are a problem maybe worse than seen in recent history...(since early 1980's ?).

[url]https://eindhovennews.com/news/2023/12/demonstration-on-18-septemberplein/[/url] or https://eindhovennews.com/news/2023/12/demonstration-on-18-septemberplein/ anti-war demonstrations become also demonstrations against "banksters" financing also climate collapse...

[url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/12/2023-is-wettest-and-warmest-on-record-and-one-of-the-sunniest/[/url] or https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/12/2023-is-wettest-and-warmest-on-record-and-one-of-the-sunniest/ ;

2023 has been the wettest and the warmest since records began in the Netherlands in 1901, and one of the sunniest, the KNMI weather bureau said on Friday.

On average, some 1060 millimetres of rain fell, compared with 795 in a normal year – the average between 1991 and 2022 – while the temperature averaged 11.8°.

Rainfall records are based on the precipitation which fell at 13 weather stations nationwide which will not be fully analysed until the end of January.

DJ-Eventough KNMI (NL-weather) does NOT link extreme rain (yet) with climate collapse record-rain year top 10 for NL has 6 of the 10 after 2000...

and [url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/12/dutch-river-water-levels-reach-peak-as-flood-risk-continues/[/url] or https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/12/dutch-river-water-levels-reach-peak-as-flood-risk-continues/

A spring tide on Friday could cause additional problems as water backs up from the sea but water board chiefs say there is enough capacity on the flood plains to absorb the excess water.

The situation is more serious in Germany where thousands of emergency service workers and volunteers have been working to prevent flooding, particularly in Lower Saxony

DJ, NL rivers will see even higher levels early january...

The NetherLands may be still one of the best prepared countries able to deal with a lot of climate problems (avoiding them to become a disaster). Still climate collapse already is bringing serious problems;

-Logistics; river-shipping may face problems getting under bridges etc.

-Rain did damage to (rail)roads

-Farmers can not work on the land -machines get stuck in the mud. Winter products may become a problem

-Since it also is simply to warm Blue Tongue Virus still can show up again...(with even one NL dog testing positive for BTV !)

-Germany, Belgium may see waterproblems crossing the border...cooperation on watermanagement is "not perfect" (but in general very good...however if our neighbours improve their water management it may increase risks for NL...)

-

NL is a very rich country with a lot of knowledge on how to deal with water (river, sea even rain...). However climate collapse may even see NL running into problems in 2024...

[url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/12/extinction-rebellion-plans-to-block-amsterdam-ring-road/[/url] or https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/12/extinction-rebellion-plans-to-block-amsterdam-ring-road/ ING-bank invested 60 billion Euro in fossil energy...maybe even more in wars...DJ-ING-bank will finance neo-liberal politics...may fund also "populist parties"...

If we want to get out of a climate collapse we have to get a grip on those that finance climate collapse ! 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2024 at 11:59pm







“Emissions from Israel’s war in Gaza have ‘immense’ effect on climate catastrophe. First months of conflict produced more planet-warming gases than 20 climate-vulnerable nations do in a year, study shows” Warfare & colonization are climate justice issues.

-

[url]https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record[/url] or https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record 

  • It is likely that a 12-month period ending in January or February 2024 will exceed 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level 

  • 2023 marks the first time on record that every day within a year has exceeded 1°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level. Close to 50% of days were more than 1.5°C warmer then the 1850-1900 level, and two days in November were, for the first time, more than 2°C warmer. 

DJ, we now live on a 1,5C+ planet...Wars making matters even worse...

One way to downplay risks (politicians, media love to lie !) is to "look for the 10 year average"....

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4bOBdfuO00[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4bOBdfuO00 Paul Beckwith;

Welcome to Our NEW 1.5 C World: We have Already Arrived at 1.5 C and are Rapidly Nearing 2.0 C…

DJ see also [url]https://twitter.com/ortegadry/status/1744515608404791383/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/ortegadry/status/1744515608404791383/photo/1 for climate collapse and pandemics....

[url]https://twitter.com/PaulHBeckwith[/url] or https://twitter.com/PaulHBeckwith and [url]https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/?locale=nl_NL[/url] or https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/?locale=nl_NL with also lots of good info..

[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/2024-looks-to-be-worse-than-2023.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/2024-looks-to-be-worse-than-2023.html ;

The year 2024 looks to be worse than the year 2023. The above chart shows sea surface temperatures that were extremely high in 2023 followed by a steep rise in 2024, crossing 21°C in early January 2024.

The chart below illustrates this further, showing the daily sea surface temperature anomaly using 1 Sep. 1981 to 31 Dec. 2023 data versus the 1982-2011 mean for latitudes between 60°S and 60°N.

DJ, like with the pandemic "experts for sale" downplay, deny risks....Somehow "a very good eye for detail while totally missing the big picture"....

[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html climate collapse means collapse of food production/logistics, a water crisis we have NEVER seen ! (Rivers running dry-no water for BILLIONS !!!! in Asia-while sea water level is going up...) 

Extreme weather a new normal...while we still will see complete idiots claiming some snow means a new ice age....(And they get "the media "discussion"...stupid won !)

DJ-Can we do anything ? No...it is to late for that...like with the pandemic, diseases out of control...Maybe that is why "leaders" push for more war...to "end it all"...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2024 at 1:45am

[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/seafloor-methane-tipping-point-crossed-in-2024.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/seafloor-methane-tipping-point-crossed-in-2024.html ;

The image below further illustrates heat striking the northern latitudes in 2023, showing that the temperature anomaly in 2023 was 2.19°C above 1880-1920 in between 24°North and the North Pole.

DJ, even if global temperature rise would stay under 2C "pre-industrial" some areas -that matter- see temperature rise above 2C. This may further melt permafrost, sea-ice etc. even worsening climate collapse...

[url]https://www.ventusky.com/?p=53;-4;2&l=temperature-anomaly-2m[/url] or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=53;-4;2&l=temperature-anomaly-2m ...YES it is very cold in some areas of the US, Canada..however Hudson Bay, Eastern Siberia see temperatures 20C ABOVE normal...

Still some idiots will keep denying any climate crisis...problem may be those idiots are in power...

[url]https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-confirms-2023-smashes-global-temperature-record?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Infographic&utm_campaign=StateOfClimate&utm_id=StateOfClimate[/url] or https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-confirms-2023-smashes-global-temperature-record?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Infographic&utm_campaign=StateOfClimate&utm_id=StateOfClimate 

or [url]https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aay1052[/url] or https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aay1052 

To put it very simple; we are moving to both a food and a watercrisis..."but it is science" so politicans do not care in the age of stupid !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2024 at 2:53am







How warm was 2023? It was the first year that any of the major temperature analysis groups exceeded 1.5 °C above their "preindustrial" 1850-1900 average, thus touching the Paris Agreement limit.

-








The average global sea surface temperature over the last three months was the highest on record relative to any other October to December period... Data from  ERSSTv5: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html

-








Bloody hell - A #tornado watch for the whole of #Ireland, western & southern #Scotland. I don't recall ever experiencing this in Ireland before, but I could have missed it. The weather of your youth is over.

DJ, Genocide by climate collapse will be mostly genocide via extreme weather...And YES !!! that may mean extreme cold in regions that never before did see such cold...

For that matter "global warming" may be a bit misleading..."weirding of the weather" may be a better description...

Climate collapse means more animals moving to areas where they try to survive-often in bad health-spreading diseases to animals/hosts that never before saw those diseases...

It also means water problems getting much worse...flooding but no drinkable water...

[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/potential-temperature-trends.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/01/potential-temperature-trends.html 

DJ-It is WRONG !!! to only look at global temperatures...in the Arctic temperatures increase much faster. 

-Methane release from melting permafrost further increasing climate collapse (methane stores heat...)

-Less snow and ice-more absorption of solar heat...also increasing temperatures

-The flows of ocean water gets effected...Some regions may-for limited time-see cooler temperatures...

-More warmth=more evaporation...rain in (Ant)Arctic regions=more snow melt

-More wind is also eroding ice/snow-blowing it in the wind...

DJ-It is quite impossible to calculate how and where temperatures/weather will change....A storm may blow hot air to Greenland, Antarctica...Sometimes short extremes matter more than averages....A "Blue Ocean Event" in the Arctic (less 1 million km2 of sea-ice) very likely will be storm related...Once methane has escaped from permafrost it will NOT return...

Another risk is melting ice in high mountains where the ice worked as a "water-glue" keeping rocks together...We will see more land/mud slides...also into mountain lakes resulting in "lake tsunami's"...or change of river flows (An earthquake in Nepal did change how rivers went). 

Again...climate collapse is NOT an isolated event...it is linked with pandemics, wars-over-water etc. Food crisis will become a major killer as well...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2024 at 12:47am

[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/02/blue-ocean-event-2024.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/02/blue-ocean-event-2024.html ;

Blue Ocean Event 2024?


How likely is an Arctic Blue Ocean Event (BOE) to occur in 2024? The image below is alarming. 

On February 1, 2024, the daily sea surface temperature reached 21.12°C, the highest temperature on record and higher than the August 2023 peak of 21.09°C.
Could the temperature increase even more over the next few months? As the above image also shows, the highest annual temperatures were typically reached in March for each of the previous years on record, except for 2023 when the current El Niño started to emerge. According to NOAA, the majority of models indicate that this El Niño will persist through March-May 2024.

DJ [url]https://www.ventusky.com/?p=35;-15;1&l=gust[/url] or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=35;-15;1&l=gust ...

Have we entered a time without seasons....A few days ago Spain had over 20C....in mid-winter....I now almost daily can see 100+ hPa  gaps between high-pressure and low-pressure areas within a 1,000 kilometer...resulting in crazy stong winds...(often 100 mph+/160 kmh+ !!!) 

The conclusion is that ocean heat is the main reason why melting of Arctic sea ice can occur early in the year. More specifically, the narrowing of the temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics can at times cause strong wind to be present along the path of the Gulf Stream. Rising ocean heat combined with strong wind can cause heat to move abruptly toward the Arctic Ocean, causing sea ice to fall in extent.

Such an event is illustrated by the image below, adapted from NSIDC. The image shows a drop in sea ice extent at the end of January 2024 (blue), a time of year when Arctic sea ice is still expected to increase in extent and to keep increasing in extent for some time to come (grey). In this case, strong wind may have caused a huge amount of ocean heat that is present in the North Atlantic to move abruptly toward the Arctic Ocean, as discussed in an earlier post


Feedbacks

Changes to the Jet Stream and ocean heat accumulating in the North Atlantic Ocean are feedbacks of the overall temperature rise. A further rise in ocean heat in combination with the steep rise in insolation hitting the Arctic in April and May could suffice to cause a Blue Ocean Event (BOE) to occur in 2024. 

A BOE occurs when virtually all sea ice disappears and less than 1 million km² of sea ice remains. As the sea ice disappears, the surface color changes from white (sea ice) to blue (ocean) resulting in far more sunlight getting absorbed by the Arctic Ocean, instead of getting reflected back into space as was previously the case.

-

The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat up an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C. 

DJ, extreme wind may push extreme heat to areas supposed to stay cold-can also push cold to areas supposed to stay hot...

[url]https://phys.org/news/2024-02-global-temperatures-september-difficult-natural.html[/url] or https://phys.org/news/2024-02-global-temperatures-september-difficult-natural.html ;

The  in September 2023 was 0.93° C warmer than the 1991–2020 average, breaking the previous record set in 2020 by a margin of 0.5° C. This was the largest margin by which the previous monthly record has been broken in any calendar month.

The record margin for September 2023 was exceptional due to its timing. Typically, the biggest jumps in monthly temperatures are observed in the winter months, when the El Niño phenomenon, which raises global temperatures, reaches its peak. Consequently, the previous record high margin was observed in February 2016, supported by a strong El Niño. Unlike February 2016, the current El Niño was not near its maximum in September 2023.

DJ, temperatures will go "more extreme" in BOTH ways...

"politicians" see extreme cold moving from Greenland/Arctic as "proof" there is "no climate collapse".....to please their fossil-fuel/war-industry donors...

Like the pandemic also climate collapse is a problem because "peoples representatives" do a bad job...It is up to citizens to defend democracy !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 04 2024 at 11:19pm

DJ, I think there are two major matters;

-fast ones-extreme weather/wild fires

-slow ones-decrease in food/water/logistics

[url]https://earthsky.org/earth/wet-bulb-temperature-explained-dangers/[/url] or https://earthsky.org/earth/wet-bulb-temperature-explained-dangers/ may be in between those two...

What is wet-bulb temperature?

One question a lot of people are asking is: “When will it get too hot for normal daily activity as we know it, even for young, healthy adults?”

The answer goes beyond the temperature you see on the thermometer. It’s also about humidity. Our research is designed to come up with the combination of the two, measured as “wet-bulb temperature.” Together, heat and humidity put people at greatly increased risk, and the combination gets dangerous at lower levels than scientists previously believed.

-

Our studies on young healthy men and women show that this upper environmental limit is even lower than the theorized 95 F (35 C). It occurs at a wet-bulb temperature of about 87 F (31 C) across a range of environments above 50% relative humidity. That would equal 87 F at 100% humidity or 100 F (38 C) at 60% humidity.

DJ, children, older people, Long CoViD/chronic ill people are even more at risk....

Current heat waves around the globe are exceeding those critical environmental limits, and approaching, if not exceeding, even the theorized 95 F (35 C) wet-bulb limits.

In the Middle East, Asaluyeh, Iran, recorded an extremely dangerous maximum wet-bulb temperature of 92.7 F (33.7 C) on July 16, 2023India and Pakistan have both reached hazardous levels in recent years, as well.

In hot, dry environments, the critical environmental limits aren’t defined by wet-bulb temperatures, because almost all the sweat the body produces evaporates, which cools the body. However, the amount humans can sweat is limited, and we also gain more heat from the higher air temperatures.

-

A recent paper from our laboratory showed that heart rate begins to increase well before our core temperature does, as we pump blood to the skin. And while eclipsing these limits does not necessarily present a worst-case scenario, prolonged exposure may become dire for vulnerable populations such as the elderly and those with chronic diseases.

Our experimental focus has now turned to testing older men and women, since even healthy aging makes people less heat-tolerant. The increased prevalence of heart disease, respiratory problems and other health problems, as well as certain medications, can put them at even higher risk of harm. People over the age of 65 comprise some 80% to 90% of heat wave casualties.

DJ, even more complex is [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature#[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature# duration of wet-bulb temperatures...

People can drink a lot, have air-co, sit or lie down...do everything "in the book" but still run into all kinds of healthissues (hearth, kidney, brain) that may worsen their condition that much they die...

A major worry is night-time temperatures..."maximum-minimum temperatures" certainly in urban areas may be rising...So people/animals may not cool down enough...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_exhaustion[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_exhaustion could become a widespread slow event...

The "body-chemistry" may get derailed...

[url]https://www.amazon.com/cooling-vest/s?k=cooling+vest[/url] or https://www.amazon.com/cooling-vest/s?k=cooling+vest may save lives...One can think of electronics monitoring a.o. temperature....However trying to limit "global warming" may be wiser than dealing with the outcome of that process...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 05 2024 at 10:40am
Leon Simons

@LeonSimons8
·
Replying to @LeonSimons8
Anyone telling you that a Sea Surface Temperature warming rate of 0.28°C/decade is nothing unusual is lying and this should be called out.

-








If the rate of Sea Surface Temperature increase is now 0.28°C/decade, that would mean a warming rate increase of about 150% since 1970-2010!

-








Using log₂ -- With an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 3.0°C, baseline CO₂ of 260 and current CO₂ at 420, the equilibrium warming is just over 2.0°C already. If Hansen's ECS of 4.8°C is correct, the equilibrium warming is 3.3°C. In either case, we're f&%ked.

DJ, [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_pressure#Records[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_pressure#Records ;

The highest adjusted-to-sea level barometric pressure ever recorded on Earth (above 750 meters) was 1,084.8 hPa (32.03 inHg) measured in Tosontsengel, Mongolia on 19 December 2001.[10] The highest adjusted-to-sea level barometric pressure ever recorded (below 750 meters) was at Agata in Evenk Autonomous Okrug, Russia (66°53' N, 93°28' E, elevation: 261 m, 856 ft) on 31 December 1968 of 1,083.8 hPa (32.005 inHg).[11] The discrimination is due to the problematic assumptions (assuming a standard lapse rate) associated with reduction of sea level from high elevations.[10]

The Dead Sea, the lowest place on Earth at 430 metres (1,410 ft) below sea level, has a correspondingly high typical atmospheric pressure of 1,065 hPa.[12] A below-sea-level surface pressure record of 1,081.8 hPa (31.95 inHg) was set on 21 February 1961.[13]

The lowest non-tornadic atmospheric pressure ever measured was 870 hPa (0.858  atm; 25.69 inHg), set on 12 October 1979, during Typhoon Tip in the western Pacific Ocean. The measurement was based on an instrumental observation made from a reconnaissance aircraft.[14]

very likely  both high and low records soon will be broken...another record may be the distance between (extreme) high and low...the closer the stronger the wind...

[url]http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/fall10/atmo336/lectures/sec2/hurricanes.html[/url] or http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/fall10/atmo336/lectures/sec2/hurricanes.html ;

Relationship between surface air pressure and windspeeds

Surface atmospheric pressure in the center of a hurricane tends to be extremely low. The lowest pressure reading ever recorded for a hurricane (typhoon Tip, 1979) is 870 millibars (mb). However, most storms have an average pressure of 950 millibars. Wind speed in a hurricane is directly related to the surface pressure of the storm. The graph below shows the relationship between surface pressure and sustained wind speed for a number of tropical low pressure systems. This is a rather old figure and does not contain data from hurricanes after 1990.

so [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale#Proposed_extensions[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale#Proposed_extensions ;

After the series of powerful storm systems of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, as well as after Hurricane Patricia, a few newspaper columnists and scientists brought up the suggestion of introducing Category 6, and they have suggested pegging Category 6 to storms with winds greater than 174 or 180 mph (78 or 80 m/s; 151 or 156 kn; 280 or 290 km/h).[10][22] Fresh calls were made for consideration of the issue after Hurricane Irma in 2017,[23] which was the subject of a number of seemingly credible false news reports as a "Category 6" storm,[24] partly in consequence of so many local politicians using the term. 

Only a few storms of this intensity have been recorded. Of the 40 hurricanes currently considered to have attained Category 5 status in the Atlantic, 18 had wind speeds at 175 mph (78 m/s; 152 kn; 282 km/h) or greater and only 8 had wind speeds at 180 mph (80 m/s; 160 kn; 290 km/h) or greater (the 1935 Labor Day hurricaneAllenGilbertMitchRitaWilmaIrma, and Dorian). Of the 20 hurricanes currently considered to have attained Category 5 status in the eastern Pacific, only 5 had wind speeds at 175 mph (78 m/s; 152 kn; 282 km/h) or greater (PatsyJohnLindaRick, and Patricia), and only 3 had wind speeds at 180 mph (80 m/s; 160 kn; 290 km/h) or greater (Linda, Rick, and Patricia). Most storms which would be eligible for this category were typhoons in the western Pacific, most notably typhoons Tip and Halong in 1979 and 2019 and respectively, each with sustained winds of 190 mph (305 km/h),[25] and typhoons HaiyanMerantiGoni, and Surigae in 2013, 2016, 2020 and 2021 respectively, each with sustained winds of 195 mph (315 km/h). 

Occasionally, suggestions of using even higher wind speeds as the cutoff have been made. In a newspaper article published in November 2018, NOAA research scientist Jim Kossin said that the potential for more intense hurricanes was increasing as the climate warmed, and suggested that Category 6 would begin at 195 mph (87 m/s; 169 kn; 314 km/h), with a further hypothetical Category 7 beginning at 230 mph (100 m/s; 200 kn; 370 km/h).[26]

DJ...just a matter of time...stronger hurricanes may also become larger...so larger portions of land-further away from any sea-may be confronted with more wind...and crazy amounts of rain/hail/thunderstorms/lightning...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 08 2024 at 5:06am

[url]https://www.sciencealert.com/ancient-15000-year-old-viruses-seen-in-melting-tibetan-glaciers[/url] or https://www.sciencealert.com/ancient-15000-year-old-viruses-seen-in-melting-tibetan-glaciers ;

Ancient creatures are emerging from the cold storage of melting permafrost, almost like something out of a horror movie.

From incredibly preserved extinct megafauna like the woolly rhino, to the 40,000-year-old remains of a giant wolf, and bacteria over 750,000 years old.

Not all of these things are dead.

Centuries-old moss was able to spring back to life in the warmth of the laboratory. So too, incredibly, were tiny 42,000-year-old roundworms.

These fascinating glimpses of organisms from Earth's long distant past are revealing the history of ancient ecosystems, including details of the environments in which they existed.

But the melt has also created some concerns about ancient viruses coming back to haunt us.

"Melting will not only lead to the loss of those ancient, archived microbes and viruses, but also release them to the environments in the future," researchers explained in a study in 2021, led by first author and microbiologist Zhi-Ping Zhong from Ohio State University.

-

In the study, the team was able to identify an archive of dozens of unique 15,000-years-old viruses from the Guliya ice cap of the Tibetan Plateau, and gain insights into their functions.

DJ, Most glaciers are decreasing/shrinking...(Ant)Arctic ice is melting but also wind may erode the ice & snow...blow it into the sea...

Lots of virus/bacteria (etc) is getting defrozen and very likely getting into a mammal or bird....

The "statistics" on risks must be terrible....Like mixing present day mega-mix of diseases with older ones from tens-of-thousends of years...So it does increase risk-also for all kinds of recombinations and new diseases...on top of rising sea level, extreme weather...Of course some of those diseases mostly did spread in plants...worsening the food-perspectives...








Humanity Has already Overstepped 6 of the Earth’s essential 9 Planetary Boundaries ,only one of which is #climate change Crossing just 1 of these 9 boundaries increases the likelihood of a planetary collapse and we have already breached 6 of these planetary boundaries.😢

see [url]https://twitter.com/ECOWARRIORSS/status/1755038209023619392/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/ECOWARRIORSS/status/1755038209023619392/photo/1 








Cutting air pollution standards from 12 micrograms per square meter to 9, the EPA says, will yield “up to $46 billion in net health benefits in 2032. For every $1 spent from this action, there could be as much as $77 in human health benefits in 2032.”

-

Currently stable parts of East Antarctica may be closer to melting than anyone realized Stanford researchers have found large thawed or close-to-thawed areas under coastal portions of the ice sheet that holds back glaciers in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin.

[url]https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL105450[/url] or https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL105450 








Breaking News! Copernicus finally caught up through the end of January, and it's not pretty. Overall January, 2024 was the hottest January on record, at 1.65°C above the pre-industrial baseline. January 31st was the hottest day of the month, at 1.93°C above pre-industrial.

DJ...I get a lot of science-info from "X"/twitter...no doubt there will also be a lot of non-sense on "X"....But "shooting the messenger" when you do not like the message is a new-absurd- normal....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2024 at 11:08pm

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYm1Z_21fr8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYm1Z_21fr8 Paul Beckwith;

Overshoot: Can we Claw Our Way Back?

In 1980 William R. Catton Jr. wrote a very famous, classic book called “Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Evolutionary Change”: https://books.google.com/books/about/... 

This incredibly important, yet often ignored treasure talks about many crucial concepts: 

Carrying Capacity: Maximum Permanently Supportable Load 

Cornucopian Myth: Euphoric Belief in Limitless Resources 

Drawdown: Stealing Resources from the Future Cargoism: 

Delusion that Technology will Always Save Us in Time Overshoot: Growth Beyond an Area’s Carrying Capacity, Leading to… 

Crash: Die-Off 


Recently, the CCAG (Climate Crisis Advisory Group) published a report titled “The Overshoot: Crossing the 1.50C threshold – and finding our way back” which I chat about in this video. Link: https://static1.squarespace.com/stati...

Like most reports, by the time they are published they are already out of date because global warming continues to accelerate in a highly nonlinear fashion. However the report does contain lots of informative insights, and is well worth reading. Essentially, it argues that we are in serious overshoot, and considers whether or not it may be possible to claw our way back?

DJ..a "4R" strategy Removal, reduction, repair (and ?) would bring back temperature increase...

Of course reality is "moving pre-industrial baseline" now 1850-1900...If we would use the 1750 (original) baseline we may already be close to +2C...

Another 'strategy' is not looking at 1 year but the 10 year average...So we were worldwide over 1,5C+ in 2023...still looking at 2014-2023 "yeah" we are still under it !

The basic point is "politicians for sale go for the economy=profits"...so "there still is a "carbon budget"...we "still can increase CO2 etc...insanity...

DJ-It reminds me of debts..."we did not use all the room to create more debts"....In a lot of countries "grandchildren of grandchildren" may end up for the debts countries now make...

It would be acceptable to make debts now to reduce costs later...Here in NL investing in "new land" may have been a wise choice...(Depending on the "baseline-year" one could claim 5% to 10% of NL is "man-made"...)

Wasting money=debt on wars is criminal in so many ways....NATO has to STOP NOW !!!

---------

Pandemics do "not just start"...climate collapse is a major factor. Animals not able to survive in their "normal zone" move to a zone with better chances-introducing diseases, reducing chances for animals in that zone...H5N1 now a global problem in birds AND mammals is climate linked...

Humans moving ever further in rain forrests get in contact with more diseases...

----------

What I realy "hate" in "climate reporting" is the "suggestion" problems will show up in 2100...Sealevel rise as the main problem...Ignoring food/water crises already a reality in many places...

[url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/2024/02/spring-already-february-2024-will-be-the-warmest-on-record/[/url] or https://www.dutchnews.nl/2024/02/spring-already-february-2024-will-be-the-warmest-on-record/ -this is in NL...but also worldwide february 2024 will break records...

Climate collapse IS killing thousends of people...from heat strokes in India, Pakistan etc. to extreme weather in Europe, America's...wildfires...

Like in the ongoing CoViD-pandemic "politicians-for-sale" go for profits...NOT public interests...To the point they destroy the planet, the climate beyond repair...It is not "just a bad choice" it may end live on this planet SOON ! So "illusions" about "making money" come at unacceptanble costs...no profit in the world is worth destroying that world !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2024 at 10:34pm

[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/arctic-sea-ice-set-for-steep-decline.html

Climate Reanalyzer registered a record high daily temperature of 21.2°C for the sea surface (60°S-60°N, 0-360°E) on March 5, 2024, with daily records going back to 1981. 

Sea surface temperatures may get even higher later in March 2024. What could make the sea surface temperature get even higher later in March 2024?

The highest daily sea surface temperatures for the year are typically reached in March. 

This was the case for the previous years on record going back to 1981, except for the year 2023 when the current El Niño started to emerge, resulting in the highest peak for the year occurring in August 2023.

There is a 100% probability that El Niño will be present during the 3 months from February 2024 to April 2024, according to NOAA predictions updated February 26, 2024.

DJ, Both Arctic and Ant-Arctic (Sea) Ice is in a bad shape. 

-Warm Ocean water "eating away" sea-ice from the under side...In Greenland, Antarctica (a.o.) this will increase land-ice/glaciers moving/melt

-Warm air also bringing more melt from the upper side in Polar regions

-Rain a third factor...storms can move rain clouds that do not get cold enough to turn into snow...further increasing melt..

-Wind eroding snow/ice...may also be a factor in movement of glaciers...

DJ-Outcome of all this -the global airco is breaking down...

The threat of a huge, abrupt temperature rise has been described many times before, e.g. on the Threat page that describes many elements contributing to the threat, both cumulatively and interactively, with some of the content dating back as far as 2007. Another page with more background is the Extinction page.

What can strongly contribute to such a rise is that, without the buffer constituted by thicker sea ice, an influx of ocean heat threatens to destabilize hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane. 

DJ...what may be missing in lots of "experts" studies is "extremes"....It is NOT very likely most major cities in the west will see temperatures of 45-50C / 120F...however IF that happens it will kill tens-of-thousends...

It is NOT very likely a place may see major hurricanes every month -several months in a row- but IF it happens it will destroy that place, de-populate it...

Here in NL we are NOT ready for a major (cat3 or higher) hurricane...most of western Europe is not able to deal with that kind of storm...both wind and rain could destroy economies...

[url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/ trying to "follow events" in the Polar regions...

DJ-Sea level rise is NOT the big issue...before that becomes a problem extreme weather/storms..flooding, heatwaves will have effected food production/logistics, water supply....

Most of the "media" keep doing a very bad job...(I hate it when they even mention 2100....it is a form of lying...ignoring we are already in a crisis NOW !!!) 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 09 2024 at 8:07am

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Q9aByWZvf0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Q9aByWZvf0 Peter, Paul and...Dale..

Greenland: Ice Loss Accelerating

Greenland’s ice sheets contain enough fresh water to raise sea levels over twenty feet. While this is not an immediate threat, the latest research shows that #Greenland’sGlaciers are shrinking at seven times the rate of just a few years ago, an average of 30 million tonnes an hour.   Fresh water entering the ocean from this melting has major implications for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation , or #AMOC, which is critical to maintain global weather patterns. Peter Wadhams, Emeritus Professor of Ocean Physics at Cambridge University and Climate Scientist, Paul Beckwith describe what is happening on this sensitive continent.  

DJ...not that long ago ice melt for Greenland was expected to be 30 million tonnes per day...it is now close to that number per hour !

-Wildfires send soot to polar regions; ice reflectivity (albedo) decreased 0,5% in recent years...

-Meltwater getting below the landice-melting/eroding ice from the underside

-Warm temperatures/rain (jet stream disruption) increasing melt from above

-DJ-Also strong winds erode ice & snow (fresh snow -if any- blown into the ocean)

-A growing piece of land (Greenland, Antarctica etc.) has NO snow or ice-warms up faster...

DJ-extreme weather events only will increase extreme "ice events"...Some of the meltwater is forming reservoirs under the ice/glaciers...in combination with a "post tropical hurricane" it could result in glaciers "rushing" into the ocean at unforseen speed. Certainly if there is no sea-ice slowing glaciers down...

[url]https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/february-2024-warmest-february-record-according-copernicus-climate-change-service-2024-03-07_en#:~:text=The%20average%20surface%20air%20temperature,2016%20by%200.12%C2%B0C.[/url] or https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/february-2024-warmest-february-record-according-copernicus-climate-change-service-2024-03-07_en#:~:text=The%20average%20surface%20air%20temperature,2016%20by%200.12%C2%B0C. 

February 2024 saw unusually warm temperatures, making it the warmest February on record globally, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Copernicus C3S monitors climate conditions using various data sources like satellites and weather stations, offering invaluable insights into global surface air and sea temperatures, sea ice cover, and hydrological variables.

The average surface air temperature for February 2024 was 13.54°C, which is higher than the average for the same month between 1991 and 2020 by 0.81°C. This surpasses the previous warmest February in 2016 by 0.12°C. It's worth noting that February 2024 is the ninth consecutive month to hold this record.

Looking at the broader picture, the twelve months leading up to February 2024 also set a record for the highest average temperature. This period's temperatures exceeded the 1991-2020 average by 0.68°C and the pre-industrial average by 1.56°C.

February 2024 saw notable spikes in temperatures, particularly in the first half of the month. From the 8th to the 11th, temperatures were consistently about 2°C higher than the levels observed between 1850 and 1900.

The warming trend wasn't uniform globally. European temperatures in February 2024 were 3.30°C above the 1991-2020 average. Central and eastern Europe experienced even higher temperatures.

These findings highlight the importance of taking action against climate change. 

With each month setting new warmth records, there's a growing need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to changing conditions. The Copernicus climate change service provides valuable data to support decision-making and global cooperation for a sustainable future.

DJ...Of course we are "at war" so "climate, pandemics" has to wait while "the west is saving the US$" from BRICS+....

Here in NL more or less february gave temperatures one would see in march...There are patterns...

Oceans are "hot" Sea-Surface-Temperatures ;

The average global sea surface temperature (SST) for February 2024 over 60°S–60°N was 21.06°C, the highest for any month in the dataset, above the previous record of August 2023 (20.98°C). Sea surface temperature is defined over the global extrapolar ocean, from 60°S to 60°N.

[url]https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-february-2024-was-globally-warmest-record-global-sea-surface-temperatures-record-high#:~:text=The%20average%20global%20sea%20surface,S%20to%2060%C2%B0N.[/url] or https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-february-2024-was-globally-warmest-record-global-sea-surface-temperatures-record-high#:~:text=The%20average%20global%20sea%20surface,S%20to%2060%C2%B0N. 

DJ-Of course if sea surface has this much energy it will bring more hurricanes...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Atlantic_hurricane_season ;

On December 11, 2023, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) released its extended range forecast for the 2024 season, predicting an above-average season with 20 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.[nb 1][3] They took into account ongoing warm sea-surface temperatures throughout most of the basin, specifically in the Main Development Region and in the Caribbean Sea, and the current El Niño set to weaken to a neutral stage by August 2024.

-

the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 72–111 units.

DJ...growing chance Europe/Africa could see a (major) hurrica(effect) this year....

Heatwaves, extreme rain/thunder will also bring a lot of damage...Stuck patterns could see several hurricanes following the same route...so an area could end up being hit with several major storms within a few months-limited time for recovery...Lots of damages for foodproduction/logistics...

Climate change and pandemics are interlinked...wars only make matters worse...(but "ceasefire "peace" have become dirty words...). 

Insanity goes on !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2024 at 2:33am

[url]https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/newsroom/news/europe-is-not-prepared-for[/url] or https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/newsroom/news/europe-is-not-prepared-for 

Europe is not prepared for rapidly growing climate risks

Europe is the fastest warming continent in the world, and climate risks are threatening its energy and food security, ecosystems, infrastructure, water resources, financial stability, and people’s health. According to the European Environment Agency’s (EEA) assessment, published today, many of these risks have already reached critical levels and could become catastrophic without urgent and decisive action. 

This press release is available in more languages



Extreme heat, drought, wildfires, and flooding, as experienced in recent years, will worsen in Europe even under optimistic global warming scenarios and affect living conditions throughout the continent. The EEA has published the first ever European Climate Risk Assessment (EUCRA) to help identify policy priorities for climate change adaptation and for climate-sensitive sectors.

Many climate risks in Europe require urgent action now 

The assessment identifies 36 major climate risks for Europe within five broad clusters: ecosystems, food, health, infrastructure, and economy and finance. More than half of the major climate risks identified in the report demand more action now and eight of them are particularly urgent, mainly to conserve ecosystems, protect people against heat, protect people and infrastructure from floods and wildfires, and to secure the viability of European solidarity mechanisms, such as the EU Solidarity Fund. 

Ecosystems: Almost all risks in the ecosystem cluster require urgent or more action, with risks to marine and coastal ecosystems assessed as particularly severe. The EEA report reminds that ecosystems provide multiple services to people, and therefore these risks have a high potential to cascade to other areas, including food, health, infrastructure, and economy. 

Food: Risks from heat and drought to crop production are already at a critical level in southern Europe, but countries in central Europe are also at risk. Especially, prolonged droughts that affect large areas pose a significant threat on crop production, food security and drinking water supplies. As one solution, even a partial shift from animal-based proteins to sustainably grown plant-based proteins, would reduce water consumption in agriculture and dependency on imported feed. 

Health: Heat is the gravest and most urgent climate risk driver for human health. At greatest risk are specific population groups, such as outdoor workers exposed to extreme heat, the elderly and people living in poorly built dwellings, in areas with a strong urban heat island effect or with inadequate access to cooling. Many levers to reduce climate risks for health lie outside traditional health policies, such as urban planning, building standards and labour laws. 

Infrastructure: More frequent and extreme weather events increase the risks to Europe’s built environment and critical services, including energy, water and transport. While coastal flood risks have been managed relatively well in Europe, rising sea levels and changes in storm patterns can cause devastating impacts on people, infrastructure and economic activities. In southern Europe, heat and droughts cause substantial risks to energy production, transmission and demand. Residential buildings also need to be adapted to increasing heat.

Economy and finance: Europe’s economy and financial system are facing many climate risks. For example, climate extremes can increase insurance premiums, threaten assets and mortgages, and increase government expenditure and loan costs. The viability of the EU Solidarity Fund is already critically threatened due to costly floods and wildfires in recent years. Worsening climate impacts can also widen private insurance gaps and make low-income households more vulnerable.  


Closer cooperation is key 

The EU and its Member States have made considerable progress in understanding the climate risks they face and in preparing for them. National climate risk assessments are increasingly used to inform adaptation policy development. However, societal preparedness is insufficient as policy implementation is lagging behind the rapid increase in risk levels. 

DJ, extreme rain/snow killed at least 7 people in France, 6 in Switzerland

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLUV2Q15O_8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLUV2Q15O_8 Weather Watcher describing the flow of rain and storm from the west as "pest of the west"....

No doubt we will see worse than the 2023 wildfires and heatwaves in most of Europe. More war is making matters worse...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2024 at 3:35am

[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/co2-rise-is-accelerating.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/co2-rise-is-accelerating.html ;

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows that the annual CO₂ growth at Mauna Loa in 2023 was 3.36 ppm, the highest annual growth on record.

Environmental crimes

The accelerating growth in carbon dioxide indicates that politicians have failed and are failing to take adequate action.

Current laws punish people for the most trivial things, while leaving the largest crime one can imagine unpunished: planetary omnicide!

If we accept that crimes against humanity include climate crimes, then politicians who inadequately act on the unfolding climate catastrophe are committing crimes against humanity and they should be brought before the International Criminal Court in The Hague, the Netherlands.

Meanwhile, Belgium has recognised ecocide as international crime and the EU Parliament has voted to criminalize the most serious cases of ecosystem destruction. 

Climate Emergency Declaration


The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

DJ, the last months of 2023-first 70+ days of 2024 did see lots of days with temperature 2C+ the IPCC baseline (1850-1900) 

When ice has melted it may need a lot of cold to restore ice in polar/mountain regions to old levels...further pushing up temperatures. 

Is the "only value" in 2024 money ? Are we that blind ? 

It’s all white noise now: 
-The warnings from David Attenborough that human civilisation is going to collapse, 
-the warnings from top scientists that billions are going to have to migrate or die, 
-the warnings of the end of human society, just go in one ear and out the other. 

We are in a suicide-by-apathy cult. There’s no other logical way to see it. 

People care more about what the latest films are more than what’s happening to the planet.

DJ, we live in the age of stupid-with lots of people better educated than ever before in history...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2024 at 1:13am

[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/atlantic-ocean-heat-threatens-to-unleash-methane-eruptions.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/atlantic-ocean-heat-threatens-to-unleash-methane-eruptions.html ;

Atlantic ocean heat threatens to unleash methane eruptions


[ click on images to enlarge ]
The above image shows monthly Atlantic surface temperatures through February 2024 (background image), highlighting the potential for the slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to contribute to more heat accumulating at the surface of the Atlantic and methane to erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.
As temperatures rise, feedbacks are kickong in with greater ferocity, resulting in creased ocean stratification, less reflectivity, heavier melting of Greenland's ice and freshwater runoff from land and rivers, all of which can contribute to slowing down of AMOC. While this is causing less ocean heat to reach the Arctic Ocean at the moment, a huge amount of ocean heat is accumulating in the North Atlantic that threatens to abruptly move into the Arctic Ocean.
The inset illustrates that, as people's emissions heat up the air and oceans, strengthening wind, ocean currents, rainfall, etc., the potential increases for a lid to form and spread at the surface of the North Atlantic. As temperatures rise, more evaporation takes place and more rain falls further down the path of the Gulf Stream, i.e. an ocean current that extends into the Arctic Ocean, as part of AMOC. This rain further contributes to the freshwater accumulation at the surface of the North Atlantic.
This page further discusses formation of a cool freshwater lid at the surface of the North Atlantic and the contribution to this of Jet Stream changes. The image below shows that the Jet Stream reached speeds as high as 455 km/h or 283 mph north of Washington on February 18, 2024 03:00 UTC, with Instantaneous Wind Power Density as high as 387.5 kW/m².

From earlier post Blue Ocean Event 2024?
The danger is that, due to strong wind along the path of the Gulf Stream, huge amounts of ocean heat will abruptly get pushed into the Arctic Ocean, with the influx of ocean heat causing destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane.

DJ [url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/atlantic-ocean-heat-threatens-to-unleash-methane-eruptions.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/atlantic-ocean-heat-threatens-to-unleash-methane-eruptions.html 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAffz_s7q0g[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAffz_s7q0g Weather Watcher;

The Weather is Getting VERY Interesting…

Very warm temperatures and Saharan dust have taken over parts of Portugal and Spain, while the rest of Europe awaits the first round of cooler air, rain, and high elevation snow. Then, a monstrous mass of Atlantic storms will arrive by early next week, temporarily blowing away the unseasonably warm temperatures across a big swath of Europe, while also delivering widespread strong winds and rainfall.

doing a good job...Atlantic Sea-Surface-Temperatures (SST) in early march would be normal for mid-summer....

We already had a lot of strong storms/heavy rain...it is only getting a lot worse...

DJ-We have to be ready for that...make plans

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 30 2024 at 11:34pm

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDPVQNtp4Ik[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDPVQNtp4Ik Paul Beckwith/PB;

Crucial Update on Global Warming Acceleration by James Hansen and his pals

Link to [url]https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2024/Hopium.MarchEmail.2024.03.29.pdf[/url] or https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2024/Hopium.MarchEmail.2024.03.29.pdf ;

Global Warming Acceleration: Hope vs Hopium 29 March 2024 James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha

Accumulating evidence supports the interpretation in our Pipeline paper: decreasing human-made aerosols increased Earth’s energy imbalance and accelerated global warming in the past decade.

Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing, physically independent quantities, were tied together by United Nations IPCC climate assessments that rely excessively on global climate models (GCMs) and fail to measure climate forcing by aerosols.

 IPCC’s best estimates for climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing both understate reality. 

Preservation of global shorelines and global climate patterns – the world humanity is adapted to – likely will require at least partly reversing global warming. 

Required actions and time scale are undefined. A bright future for today’s young people is still possible, but its attainment is hampered by precatory (wishful thinking) policies that do not realistically account for global energy needs and aspirations of nations with emerging economies.

An alternative is needed to the GCM-dominated perspective on climate science. We will bear a heavy burden if we stand silent or meek as the world continues on its present course.

DJ, New rules on shipping fuel reducing aerosols in the atmosphere pushing up global temperatures even faster....Global Climate Models used by the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) are incorrect...We went from global temperature rise of 0,18C per decade 50 years ago to 0,3C+ per decade after 2000...Temperature rise is increasing...

Part of the problem is a "darkening Earth"...less ice and snow=less reflection of Sun heath...more absorption...

[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/atlantic-ocean-heat-threatens-to-unleash-methane-eruptions.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/03/atlantic-ocean-heat-threatens-to-unleash-methane-eruptions.html warning methane is increasing fast in the atmosphere-even better in containing heath...

Paul Beckwith/PB link to ;








Replying to 
Global warming in 2010-2023 is 0.30°C/decade, 67% faster than 0.18°C/decade in 1970-2010. During that time, GHG forcing was steady, Sun’s energy didn’t change & volcano impact has been negligible (including Honga Tunga). What remains is aerosol forcing. 8/20

-








Replying to 
But Hansen says evidence shows IPCC’s models that assume 3ºC warming for a doubling of CO2 are wrong & the correct value is 4.8ºC. This also means that aerosol forcing (cooling) is larger than IPCC assumes. 11/20

DJ [url]https://twitter.com/CodeRedEarth[/url] or https://twitter.com/CodeRedEarth lots of good-but very depressing-info...Politics simply disconnected itself from a reality they created but do no longer like...Present politics did navigate the global Titanic to the iceberg...it was NOT an accident but stupidity, greed, saving profits"economy" ...

So "lets have more war" "the Russians are coming" and other insanity...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2024 at 3:44am

[url]https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-march-2024-tenth-month-row-be-hottest-record[/url] or https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-march-2024-tenth-month-row-be-hottest-record DJ-Using the 1850-1900 average temperature as "pre-industrial" is lying..

If March 2024 world wide was 1,68C above the 1850-1900 baseline-"real increase of temperature may be 0,5C to 1C extra ! Underlining the very major global risk !

;

Newsflash

Bonn, 08/04/2024


Surface air temperature anomaly for March 2024 relative to the March average for the period 1991-2020. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF. 
ACCESS TO DATA | DOWNLOAD THE ORIGINAL IMAGE

The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on behalf of the European Commission with funding from the EU, routinely publishes monthly climate bulletins reporting on the changes observed in global surface air and sea temperatures, sea ice cover and hydrological variables. All the reported findings are based on computer-generated analyses and according to ERA5 dataset, using billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world. 


Monthly global surface air temperature anomalies (°C) relative to 1850–1900 from January 1940 to March 2024, plotted as time series for each year. 2024 is shown with a thick yellow line, 2023 with a thick red line, and all other years with thin lines shaded according to the decade, from blue (1940s) to brick red (2020s). Data source: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF.
ACCESS TO DATA | DOWNLOAD THE ORIGINAL IMAGE

Surface air temperature and sea surface temperature highlights

  • March 2024 was warmer globally than any previous March in the data record, with an average ERA5 surface air temperature of 14.14°C, 0.73°C above the 1991-2020 average for March and 0.10°C above the previous high set in March 2016. 

  • This is the tenth month in a row that is the warmest on record for the respective month of the year. 

  • The month was 1.68°C warmer than an estimate of the March average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference period. 

  • The global-average temperature for the past twelve months (April 2023 – March 2024) is the highest on record, at 0.70°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.58°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. 

  • The average European temperature for March 2024 was 2.12°C above the 1991-2020 average for March, making the month the second warmest March on record for the continent, only a marginal 0.02°C cooler than March 2014. Temperatures were most above average in central and eastern regions. 

  • Outside Europe, temperatures were most above average over eastern North America, Greenland, eastern Russia, Central America, parts of South America, many parts of Africa, southern Australia, and parts of Antarctica. 

  • The El Niño continued to weaken in the eastern equatorial Pacific, but marine air temperatures in general remained at an unusually high level.  

  • The global sea surface temperature averaged for March over 60°S–60°N was 21.07°C, the highest monthly value on record, marginally above the 21.06°C recorded for February. 

Samantha Burgess Deputy Director of Copernicus Climate Service (C3S) emphasized the significance of the situation: “March 2024 continues the sequence of climate records toppling for both air temperature and ocean surface temperatures, with the 10th consecutive record-breaking month. The global average temperature is the highest on record, with the past 12 months being 1.58°C above pre-industrial levels. Stopping further warming requires rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.’’ 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 09 2024 at 5:06am

[url]https://www.echr.coe.int/w/grand-chamber-rulings-in-the-climate-change-cases[/url] or https://www.echr.coe.int/w/grand-chamber-rulings-in-the-climate-change-cases ;

The ECHR delivered Grand Chamber rulings in three climate change cases.

The case Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz and Others v. Switzerland concerned a complaint by four women and a Swiss association, Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz, whose members are all older women concerned about the consequences of global warming on their living conditions and health. They consider that the Swiss authorities are not taking sufficient action to mitigate the effects of climate change. The Court found that Article 8 of the Convention encompasses a right to effective protection by the State authorities from the serious adverse effects of climate change on lives, health, well-being and quality of life. However, it held that the four individual applicants did not fulfil the victim-status criteria under Article 34 of the Convention and declared their complaints inadmissible. The applicant association, in contrast, had the right to bring a complaint. The Court held that there had been a violation of the right to respect for private and family life of the Convention and that there had been a violation of the right to access to the court. The Court found that the Swiss Confederation had failed to comply with its duties (“positive obligations”) under the Convention concerning climate change. 

The case Carême v. France concerned a complaint by a former inhabitant and mayor of the municipality of Grande-Synthe, who submits that France has taken insufficient steps to prevent global warming and that this failure entails a violation of the right to life and the right to respect for private and family life. The Court declared inadmissible the application, on the ground that the applicant did not have victim status within the meaning of Article 34 of the Convention.

The case Duarte Agostinho and Others v. Portugal and 32 Others concerned the current and future severe effects of climate change, which the applicants attribute to the respondent States, and which they claim impact their lives, well-being, mental health and the peaceful enjoyment of their homes. As concerned the extraterritorial jurisdiction of the respondent States other than Portugal, the Court found that there were no grounds in the Convention for the extension, by way of judicial interpretation, of their extraterritorial jurisdiction in the manner requested by the applicants. Having regard to the fact that the applicants had not pursued any legal avenue in Portugal concerning their complaints, the applicants’ complaint against Portugal was also inadmissible for non-exhaustion of domestic remedies. The Court declared inadmissible the applications lodged against Portugal and the other States on the issue of climate change.

in other words;

[url]https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-activists-seek-breakthrough-human-rights-court-ruling-against-european-2024-04-09/[/url] or https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-activists-seek-breakthrough-human-rights-court-ruling-against-european-2024-04-09/ ;

STRASBOURG, France, April 9 (Reuters) - The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) ruled on Tuesday in favour of a group of elderly Swiss women who had argued that their government's inadequate efforts to combat climate change put them at risk of dying during heatwaves.
The European court's decision on the case, brought by more than 2,000 women, could have a ripple effect across Europe and beyond, setting a precedent for how some courts deal with the rising tide of climate litigation argued on the basis of human rights infringements.

Court President Siofra O'Leary said the Swiss government had violated the human right to a private and family life, by failing to put in place sufficient domestic policies to tackle climate change.
"This included a failure to quantify, through a carbon budget or otherwise, national greenhouse gas emissions limitations," O'Leary told the courtroom.
She also noted the Swiss government had failed to meet its past greenhouse gas emission reduction targets, by not putting in place measures to ensure the goals were achieved.

Global civic movement Avaaz said the court's ruling had opened a new chapter in climate litigation.
"The Swiss ruling sets a crucial legally binding precedent serving as a blueprint for how to successfully sue your own government over climate failures," said Ruth Delbaere, legal campaigns director at Avaaz.
However, the court threw out two other similar cases, the first brought by six Portuguese youth against 32 European governments and another by a former French mayor against the French government.

"I really hoped that we would win against all the countries so obviously I’m disappointed that this didn’t happen," Sofia Oliveira, one of the Portuguese youngsters said in a statement.
"But the most important thing is that the Court has said in the Swiss women’s case that governments must cut their emissions more to protect human rights. So, their win is a win for us too and a win for everyone!"
The Swiss verdict, which cannot be appealed, could compel the government to take greater action on reducing emissions, including revising its 2030 emissions reductions targets to get in line with the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The cases before the 17-judge panel in Strasbourg, France, joined a growing trend of communities bringing climate lawsuits against governments with arguments resting on human rights law.

DJ, in short-governments "have to do more" to save climate...

Here in NL government went for "buying time" resulting now in a crisis on many fields with enviromental links...nitrogen, water, electricity...

A "blind capitalist market economy" has "investors" going for profits...NOT governments going for solutions...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 11 2024 at 1:50am

[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/did-the-climate-experience-a-regime-change-in-2023.html ;

The February 2024 temperature was 1.76°C above 1885-1915, potentially 2.75°C above pre-industrial 

DJ,what makes "climate change" into genocide is denying pre-industrial has to go back to before 1750...playing with the baseline to make it "fit" politics is wrong.

Also going for a "10 year average"...so we may be above 2C in 2024-but "the 10 year average" is "still" under 1,5C..."so there is a carbon budget"...

The problem-man made- in itself is bad enough...denying of the problem; defunding science, keeping it out of "main stream media" makes it a genocide...

We-as humans-can NOT survive if we do not change "the road"...the road we are on now is leading to "end of life" on this planet...Not only climate wise -the harder problem- but even wars, pandemics-with much more human ways to limit damage are ignored....

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MX_PeNzz-Lw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MX_PeNzz-Lw ;

China’s MASSIVE Desert Project Is About To Change The World

This is the biggest solar power plant in the United States, located in Kern, California. The Solar Star Plant is over 8 square miles and has a generation capacity of 579 megawatts, powering around 255,000 homes. This is impressive, but about 6,500 miles away, in this remote desert, there's a solar facility that could dwarf it … and just about every other solar power plant on earth. And it’s not alone. 

DJ, China decreasing coal-import from Mongolia, North Korea-increasing solar and wind-energy...Getting that energy from deserts/sea to the mega-cities is the big job...

and [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wt5xAcmfaYo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wt5xAcmfaYo ;

This Tower Turns Ocean Fog Into FRESH Drinking Water!

Fresh water is the cornerstone of all life, and it always feels like we either have too much or too little. And while desalination has grown in popularity, it is very energy intensive to separate the salt from ocean water. But a novel idea is emerging that harnesses the water vapor right above our oceans and transports it back to land. It promises to be the lower cost lower energy alternative to desalination, but will it actually work? How much water can it realistically produce, and might this be a key solution to our water challenges in the future? Let's find out!  Limitless Fresh Water Lies Right OVER The Ocean - Without Desalination!

DJ, global warming will see more evaporation-more water vapor- a green house gas-in the atmosphere...Can we "harvest" that water vapor to increase the amount of drinkable water ? Conclusion of the video-high costs investments would LOWER the costs of water for most people around the globe...

We need to invest in new ideas;

-transport of energy via "energy-rays" (not cables) over long distances may be more efficient

-Water production from ocean water-going for a global water network-can solve a water crisis

-Green-logistics/15-minute cities can decrease demand for cars...

These changes demand both large investments and global cooperation. Both are possible-we see now massive investments in wars...Are able to drop bombs worldwide within a few hours...We should do better that that !









Global CO2 levels and temperatures. But but but we scientists are merely “fear mongering” according to deniers. How about just facing reality? How about precautionary warnings to protect human lives?  @MrMatthewTodd #climatecrisis

-









We are now at 400 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF RECORD ocean temperatures in North Atlantic. Let that alarming stat sink in.

Soon there may be no economy left to save...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 14 2024 at 11:20pm

DJ, Northern Spain did see 37C this weekend-15 C warmer then "the normal" (wich may be the 1990-2020 period used as a "norm"-but already very hot). 

[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/north-atlantic-heating-up.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2024/04/north-atlantic-heating-up.html ;

North Atlantic heating up


The North Atlantic Ocean is heating up, as more sunlight starts reaching the Northern Hemisphere. The above image, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows sea surface temperatures up to April 11, 2024. The image shows that 2024 temperatures have been significantly higher than 2023 temperatures for the same date. The annual maximum temperature in 2023 was reached on August 31. Temperatures can be expected to rise dramatically over the next few months, in line with the change in seasons. 


2024 temperatures to exceed 2023 temperatures?

The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows global ocean temperature anomalies from 1901-2000. The green line (LOcally Estimated Scatterplot Smoothing) could be a warning of higher temperature anomalies to come. 

Much will depend on the strength of the current El Niño over the next few months. The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows monthly temperature anomalies versus 1901-2000 through March 2024, colored by El Niño/La Niña conditions. 

NOAA warns that there is a bit of a delay in the effects of any given ENSO phase. So, the first part of this year will still be influenced by El Niño, which is in part why NOAA predicts a 55% chance that 2024 will be hotter than 2023.

Further factors (other than El Niño) may continue to accelerate the temperature rise, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one. The danger is that, due to strong wind along the path of the Gulf Stream, huge amounts of ocean heat will abruptly get pushed into the Arctic Ocean, with the influx of ocean heat causing destabilization of hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane, as discussed in earlier posts such as this one.

Arctic sea ice getting very thin

The image below indicates that Arctic sea ice volume has recently been the lowest on record for the time of year.
Given that Arctic sea ice currently is still relatively extensive, this low volume indicates that sea ice is indeed very thin, which must be caused by ocean heat melting sea ice from below, since little or no sunshine is yet reaching the Arctic at the moment and air temperatures are still far below freezing point, so where ocean heat may be melting sea ice away from below, a thin layer of ice will quickly be reestablished at the surface.

This situation looks set to dramatically change over the next few months, as air temperatures will rise and as more ocean heat will reach the Arctic Ocean. Moreover, as illustrated by the map below, much of the thicker sea ice is located off the east coast of Greenland. This sea ice and the purple-colored sea ice can be expected to melt away quickly with the upcoming rise in temperatures over the next few months.

The image below warns that sea ice in a large area from the Laptev Sea down to the North Pole may be very thin.

Climate Emergency Declaration

The situation is dire and the precautionary principle calls for rapid, comprehensive and effective action to reduce the damage and to improve the situation, as described in this 2022 post, where needed in combination with a Climate Emergency Declaration, as discussed at this group.

DJ [url]https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/?locale=nl_NL[/url] or https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/?locale=nl_NL also "following events"...

One of the discussions in "climate" is "linear" changes or "exponential changes";

-linear is "slow&steady" rise...+0,5-+1-+1,5-+2-+2,5-+3...

-exponential is much more "brutal" +0,5-+1-+2-+4-+8-+16...

Global temperatures are a.o. limited by polar ice...That ice is melting fast...The "balance" is already destroyed ! 

Still "saving the economy/profits" politics claim there is a "budget" for even more Green House Gasses (GHG)...Science-for decades-did warn there is NOT ANY ROOM for more GHG..."Economy winning"...also in this dossier means stupidity is winning...

The IPCC is working with "incomplete computer models" -the predictions from those models being wrong time and time again..."the economy" !!!

We are soon out of any tools to limit collapse...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 95367
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 17 2024 at 4:24am

[url]https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/4/12/2234603/-Due-to-massive-ice-loss-Greenland-s-gravity-is-weakening-which-is-bad-news-for-the-S-Hemisphere?[/url] or https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/4/12/2234603/-Due-to-massive-ice-loss-Greenland-s-gravity-is-weakening-which-is-bad-news-for-the-S-Hemisphere? ;

Matt Galloway (MG) of CBC News interviewed William Colgan (WC) recently (the audio file is here). Colgan stated a mind-boggling truth that is not common knowledge within scientific communities or among many climate activists.

From the interview transcript:

MG: The ice isn't disappearing. I mean, it turns into water. The water has to go somewhere. So, when it ends up in the oceans, what does that mean?

WC: Oh, boy. It's pretty complicated, actually. So, Greenland is losing so much ice. In addition to the study that we're talking about today that just came out, this is... they're just talking about, 40 million tons of the floating ice at the edge of the ice sheet. But all together, the ice sheet is losing about five times more than that or about, you know, it's 9 or 10 thousand tons a second. And it's so much ice that the gravity is weakening over Greenland. And that has an impact on how the ocean is shaped.

MG: Sorry, the gravity is weakening over Greenland.

WC: Isn't that weird?

MG: Because the displacement is less?

WC: Well, the mass in Greenland is less.

MG: Yeah.

WC: And I mean, if you think of how the moon orbits Earth and it pulls a tide around with it. Greenland is a relatively massive object, and it holds sort of a permanent tide of water close to it. And so, as Greenland begins to get smaller, its gravity begins to get weaker, and that water that it holds tight begins to slosh away to faraway places in the world where the gravity is not weakening. So, the upshot is, is that when Greenland loses mass and dumps ice into the ocean, most of the sea level rise is felt in the Southern hemisphere. And on the flip side, when Antarctica loses mass and weakens its gravity. That's when the sea level is felt in the Northern hemisphere.

-

We live on a wild planet, a wobbly, erupting, ocean-sloshed orb that careens around a giant thermonuclear explosion in the void. Big rocks whiz by overhead, and here on the Earth’s surface, whole continents crash together, rip apart, and occasionally turn inside out, killing nearly everything. Our planet is fickle. When the unseen tug of celestial bodies points Earth toward a new North Star, for instance, the shift in sunlight can dry up the Sahara, or fill it with hippopotamuses. Of more immediate interest today, a variation in the composition of the Earth’s atmosphere of as little as 0.1 percent has meant the difference between sweltering Arctic rainforests and a half mile of ice atop Boston. That negligible wisp of the air is carbon dioxide.

Since about the time of the American Civil War, CO2’s crucial role in warming the planet has been well understood. And not just based on mathematical models: The planet has run many experiments with different levels of atmospheric CO2. At some points in the Earth’s history, lots of CO2 has vented from the crust and leaped from the seas, and the planet has gotten warm. At others, lots of CO2 has been hidden away in the rocks and in the ocean’s depths, and the planet has gotten cold. The sea level, meanwhile, has tried to keep up—rising and falling over the ages, with coastlines racing out across the continental shelf, only to be drawn back in again. During the entire half-billion-year Phanerozoic eon of animal life, CO2 has been the primary driver of the Earth’s climate. And sometimes, when the planet has issued a truly titanic slug of CO2 into the atmosphere, things have gone horribly wrong.

Today, humans are injecting CO2 into the atmosphere at one of the fastest rates ever over this entire, near-eternal span. When hucksters tell you that the climate is always changing, they’re right, but that’s not the good news they think it is. “The climate system is an angry beast,” the late Columbia climate scientist Wally Broecker was fond of saying, “and we are poking it with sticks.”

The beast has only just begun to snarl. All of recorded human history—at only a few thousand years, a mere eyeblink in geologic time—has played out in perhaps the most stable climate window of the past 650,000 years. We have been shielded from the climate’s violence by our short civilizational memory, and our remarkably good fortune. But humanity’s ongoing chemistry experiment on our planet could push the climate well beyond those slim historical parameters, into a state it hasn’t seen in tens of millions of years, a world for which Homo sapiens did not evolve.

Colgan also mentioned that Greenland Glacier Jacobshavn is in serious trouble because of cracking. It is already the world's fastest-moving glacier, and one of its icebergs is believed to have sunk the Titanic.

DJ...humans seem hardly able to remember yesterday...May be unable to realize "we developed" in a "climatic pause" that was NOT normal in Earth history...only in human (much shorter-0,1% of Earth history-) history...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down