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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Gestalt#43 – SARS-2 Pandemic

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Tabitha111 View Drop Down
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    Posted: March 15 2021 at 6:20am

 by monotreme1000 | March 15, 2021
Gestalt#43 – SARS-2 Pandemic – Monotreme's Blog (wordpress.com)

Selective Sweep in the Human Population


Last week, I wrote about the "it must get milder myth". I'd like to expand on this a bit and explain how a concept called "selective sweep" affects the human response to lethal pathogens.

We know that viruses evolve in response to changing conditions, such as previous infections in a host or widespread use of vaccines. The human species also responds to dangerous infections. We have individual immune responses to viruses. There are also changes at a population level. The genes that code for our immune system vary greatly from individual to individual.

This partly explains why two people with similar apparent characteristics can have very different responses to the same infection. When a new virus rapidly expands in a naive population, it may kill many individuals. However, due to variation in human genetics, some individuals, through sheer chance, will have an immune system that prevents serious disease.

These individuals will be the only ones who can give rise to the next generation of humans. Hence, in future generations, the new virus will appear to be "milder", simply because all the people who were susceptible to it died and did not pass on their genes. This is what survival of the fittest means when applied to humans exposed to a new, lethal virus.

There is substantial evidence there have been large die-offs in humans in response to new infectious disease that preserved a remnant population that later expanded their numbers after the die-off. The evidence for these die-offs lies within our genomes.

There are signs of "selective sweep" in our genetic makeup, i. e., evidence that certain gene variants became common because they conferred a survival advantage to the initially small group of individuals who had them.

Smallpox is one of the diseases that affected humans in this way. Smallpox was dangerous to Europeans but was far more lethal to Native Americans. The reason was that the European population had been culled of susceptible individuals for many years by smallpox. Native Americans had never been exposed to the virus before. Therefore, it killed 90% of Native Americans. The virus obviously had not gotten milder despite having infected humans for thousands of years before it entered the Native American population.

SARS-2 is thus far not nearly as lethal as smallpox. However, there is evidence that some of the new strains are getting more lethal. How lethal can SARS-2 get? We don't know.

The statement that the virus must get milder because it is in the virus's self-interest is made by people with a weak understanding of biology. I'm afraid that this includes more than a few people in public health.


Name the Evil


I have been greatly disturbed by reports of attacks on Asian Americans. Not much information has been provided on why these attacks are happening. I think it is possible that the mass media coverage of what is occurring in China is one factor that is causing weak-minded individuals to behave in this way.

Xi Jinping is the absolute dictator of a totalitarian State. But you wouldn't know this by the way the media covers the evil that is occurring in China. When some new atrocity is revealed, terms like "China", "the Chinese", and "the Chinese government" are referenced.

China is a country; the Chinese are a people; and the Chinese government is one man: Xi Jinping.

"China" did not order the construction of concentration camps and the rape, torture, murder and genocide of the Uyghur people; Xi Jinping did. 

"China" didn't order the destruction of freedom in Hong Kong; Xi Jinping did.

"China" didn't order the release of the SARS-2 on an unsuspecting world; Xi Jinping did.

Why can't the media name the source of evil in China? It is one man: Xi Jinping.

It took a long time, too long, for people to understand that the ruler of Germany in the 1930s was an evil man. Personally evil. Given the power of modern weapons, we cannot afford to ignore the fact that Xi Jinping is a personally evil man. Not because he is a Communist. He has had real Marxists arrested and imprisoned. Xi Jinping is evil because there is something missing in his brain. The media should stop blaming "China" for the evil being orchestrated by one man.


Reference:


Natural selection and infectious disease in human populations.(2014) Karlsson et al. Nature Reviews Genetics.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nrg3734

'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 15 2021 at 7:00am

Viruses often do evolve to be milder, as those which kill their host quickly tend not to infect others.  The dead don't go around breathing on people and the living tend to avoid them.  'And yes, survivors breed more survivors over time.

This was never going to happen with this bug, as it only kills a small portion of its victims (currently).  The long time taken to die from Covid19 rules that out too, as there is plenty of time for it to spread whilst the host is moribund.  There is never a guarantee that a virus will evolve to be milder; even very fatal bugs can buck the trend.  It is a game of Russian roulette with every case.

Viruses also usually evolve to be more contagious.  There is no reason this virus would find that harder than normal.  Several more contagious strains have already emerged (UK, Brazil and South African strains for instance) and THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK THIS PROCESS HAS REACHED AN END POINT. IT PROBABLY DOES NOT HAVE AN END POINT.  It is a game of Russian roulette with every case, but more chambers have live rounds in them now.

Evolutionary forces also push diseases towards avoiding vaccine controls..  The number of infected individuals is the facilitator for this to happen It is a game of Russian roulette with every case.  The best case senario is that the infected are quarrantined and ring vaccinated before this can happen. That ship has sailed. In fact it is over the horizon! The only bit you can still see is the albatross flying high above it.  The gun has not gone off yet, but we keep filling more chambers.

Diseases usually evolve to survive treatments as well.  Had we any really effective anti-viral, SARS2 would be working on that as well.  The only reason that Russian roulette is not being played here, is that all the chambers have bullets in already.

This is how evolution works.  The only way to avoid it, is to completely erradicate the disease.  Sadly, human stupidity seems to be repeatedly giving Covid19 a leg-up.  

America teaches intelligent design in some schools and values freedom apparently above the right to life, so  I get why they are failing there.  (HEY FOLKS, DO YOU BELIEVE IN EVOLUTION YET?)   It also does not help to blame others for problems, instead of searching for solutions.  (How many lives does blaming China save?)  Russia, Brazil and many, many others have leaders who rule with disinformation and many more countries are so poor, they can't adopt the necessary control methods, so those failures make logical sense as too.   

I wish I knew what the UK's excuse for such idiocy was.  Oh yes!  Our economy!  It is on its knees, no elbows, already and whilst we battle the virus it is getting worse.  We have had 3 short lockdowns and many local ones, instead of one long effective one; we even left some borders open.  Ergo, our failure is the failure of our government to understand the cause and effect being very clearly demonstrated.  You don't need a fourth parachute if you put the first one on properly and leave it it on long enough to land.


OK, I voted for this government.  Call me any names you wish for that.

Believers don't need proof and sceptics won't accept proof.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WillobyBrat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 15 2021 at 11:08am

That "Hell hole" of New Zealand, as Trump labelled it, has a fatalaty count of 27.

"MAGA" America has 547,234.


Which is the "Hell hole" now, Trump?







https://www.statista.com/statistics/1093256/novel-coronavirus-2019ncov-deaths-worldwide-by-country/

I like Ike
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