Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Gestalt#80-SARS-2 Pandemic |
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Tabitha111
Adviser Group Joined: January 11 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 11640 |
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Posted: January 16 2022 at 4:08am |
by monotreme 1000 Jan 16, 2022 Worse may be coming Although we all hope the pandemic will be over after Omicron works its way through the world, this seems unlikely. |
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'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius |
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Hazelpad
Adviser Group Joined: September 09 2014 Status: Offline Points: 6910 |
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HI Tabitha. I know how some people are feeling but let's have some cause for optimism. Lots of coronaviruses circulate in animals.but dont necessary jump. Also the sheer scale of omicron is going to offer some immunity. Dont know if you ever watched Lord of the Rings Return of the king. When the ghost army comes off the ship and flattens the orcs. That's how I visualise omicron with the orca being delta and beta. I am hopeful as this is often the way other pandemics go. Dont place too much emphasis on mutations evading antibodies, viruses need cell mediated immunity naturalkiller cells, Th1 and CD8+ memoryT cells memory. The epitopes for these tend to be more conserved and less subject to mutations than antibody target epitopes. On top of that the human body is not simply a sitting target, our immune systems are incredibly resilient, and have fantastic ability to evolve and learn from interactions with pathogens. The virus doesnt run the whole show. Below is a good explanation for origin of omicron. I did post from J Campbell but just incase you missed it as I think it offers 3 plausible explanations of where omicron came from. I appreciate how we think this will never end but I think it will eventually. So hold on. I may be wrong but need for hope. Hz Repost. Omicron didnt evolve from Delta or Beta. It split off from the original Wuhan strain around mid 2020. It then disappeared for 18months. During this time it accumulated mutations at a much faster rate than normal ( 1.5 mutations a month instead of usual 0.5 mutations indicating it was under strong selective pressure. So ..where did it go for 18 months and what allowed its mutation rate to be so high ? 3 interesting theories but evidence points to 3rd theory. 1) It was circulating and mutating in a population which had no PCR testing, so was undetected but was infecting people and changing. ( this however doesnt explain it's unusual high mutation rate) 2) It was in a chronically infected individual where it quietly gathered mutations. For example a human with HIV cant clear the virus, it lives and divides and mutates in that person continuously. The person acts as an incubator. This though still doesnt explain its high mutation rate. 3) In mid 2020 omicron predecessor left the human population and jumped into mice. There it underwent a faster mutation rate ( common in animals), the mutations were especially within the spike protein and it is shown to have adapted to fit the slightly different Mice ACE2 receptors perfectly. 18 months later It jumped back to humans. Mice ACE2 receptors are more like our upper airways and not like our lower airways. This meant the mutated virus now adapted to mice, could accumulate in huge numbers in humans upper but not lower airways. Here it is close to the point of exit ( nose and mouth) so could be more infectious than Beta or Delta. Also avoiding the lower airways could be less pathogenic. So Dr Campbell finishes by saying....was it just luck that 1) Omicron escapes vaccine, out competes pathogenic delta, and infect and immunised us without causing severe disease.( data not complete yet but so far in Scotland indications are it is less severe). ( also unknown if omicron can prevent reinfection with delta) 2) Are we also lucky that it was mice it jumped into and not another animal like camel. Camels Ace2 receptors are like our lower airways. So it could have emerged adapted to more efficiently infect our lower airways and cause a MERS like illness which is 35%CFR. ( lower airways is also closer to blood so becomes a blood virus as well as a lower respiratory.) Anyway I found it interesting. Must start telling my cats "Mice are Nice" and to stop drowning them. My cats hold them under the water with their paws... it's a trait of their breed...crazy cats. |
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Littlesmile
V.I.P. Member Joined: July 18 2016 Location: Northern irelan Status: Offline Points: 1815 |
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Thank you Hazelpad for the more positive outlook. I don't know about everyone else but I'm getting tired. It's hard to see this battle being won in this crazy crazy world. |
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:-)
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Dutch Josh
Adviser Group Joined: May 01 2013 Location: Arnhem-Netherla Status: Offline Points: 95677 |
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CoVid-virus in US deer is NOT the Alpha or Delta variant that was spreading in humans but more related to the Wuhan-wild type variant from the early start of this pandemic. Apart from minks and some zoo animals/pets I notice "very limited CoViD" detected in animals...I think that may be good news...at least for now. It is "likely" I think SE Asia bats can start a SARS-3 variant, could spread one of their around 30 corona virusses into some other animals (like MERS ending up in camels...MERS is not that easy to catch). With Omicron possibly a link of its development in mice [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.14.472632v1.full[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.14.472632v1.full (ggod reasons for such an idea) I would expect to see much more CoViD in non-human hosts... One of the reasons why we may not find CoViD in animals is that we do not look for CoViD in animals [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/12/articles/miscellaneous/new-update-a-guide-to-mitigating-the-risk-of-infection-in-veterinary-practices-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-2/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/12/articles/miscellaneous/new-update-a-guide-to-mitigating-the-risk-of-infection-in-veterinary-practices-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-2/ but still if CoViD would be spreading in non human hosts on a relevant scale we would have seen it by now... Maybe future developments may lead us into another species getting more CoViD but...so far this may leave room for some optimism... Another idea woth considering is the 4 known corona-clold virusses may have started with maybe some kind of CoViD-pandemic as well-to turn into the "common mild cold"...so this pandemic may be going there on the longer run as well...Maybe that is an idea behind "living with the virus" allthough the timegap between where we are now and this CoViD-19 becoming the 5th corona coldvirus may still bring lots of unwelcome surprises...I still think we have to limit CoViD the best we can... Long Covid is very unwelcome, but I wonder if ME-CFS (etc) may be related to some other (corona ?) virus....and in that sense not new. Seeing this pandemic "as an interesting historic event" makes it possible for me to deal with it, create a certain distance...but still it is "hard" to deal with... |
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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein |
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ViQueen24
Adviser Group Joined: May 14 2013 Location: Verona, PA Status: Offline Points: 12270 |
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I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
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