Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)

PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
123456
Forum Home Forum Home > Main Forums > General Discussion
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - Gestalt#80-SARS-2 Pandemic
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

Gestalt#80-SARS-2 Pandemic

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
Tabitha111 View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group
Avatar

Joined: January 11 2020
Location: Virginia
Status: Offline
Points: 11640
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Gestalt#80-SARS-2 Pandemic
    Posted: January 16 2022 at 4:08am

by monotreme 1000 Jan 16, 2022

Worse may be coming


Although we all hope the pandemic will be over after Omicron works its way through the world, this seems unlikely.

Omicron did not evolve from what was recently the dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2. It was not predicted. It was not anticipated. It seemed to have come from nowhere. The explanations I have read about its origins are not convincing, at least to me.

 SARS-CoV-2 is now circulating not only in humans but also at high levels in animals such as deer. We will never get rid of this virus now. It will have many opportunities to evolve in humans and animals. Even experts who have tried to sugar coat the pandemic in the past now acknowledge that future iterations of the virus might not be milder, they may in fact be far worse: more infectious, better able to evade the immune system, more lethal.




'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius

Back to Top
Hazelpad View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: September 09 2014
Status: Offline
Points: 6910
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hazelpad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2022 at 5:53am

HI Tabitha.

I know how some people are feeling but let's have some cause for optimism.

Lots of coronaviruses circulate in animals.but dont necessary jump.  Also the sheer scale of omicron is going to offer some immunity.  

Dont know if you ever watched Lord of the Rings Return of the king.  When the ghost army comes off the ship and flattens the orcs.  That's how I visualise omicron with the orca being delta and beta.   

I am hopeful as this is often the way other pandemics go.  Dont place too much emphasis on mutations evading antibodies, viruses need cell mediated immunity naturalkiller cells, Th1 and CD8+ memoryT cells memory.  The epitopes for these tend to be more conserved and less subject to mutations than antibody target epitopes.  On top of that the human body is not simply a sitting target, our immune systems are incredibly resilient, and have fantastic ability to evolve and learn from interactions with pathogens.  The virus doesnt run the whole show.

Below  is a good explanation for origin of omicron.   I did post from J Campbell but just incase you missed it as I think it offers 3 plausible explanations of where omicron came from.

I appreciate how we think this will never end but I think it will eventually.  So hold on.

I may be wrong but need for hope.

Hz 


 Repost.

Omicron didnt evolve from Delta or Beta.  It split off  from the original Wuhan strain around mid 2020.  It then disappeared for 18months.

 During this time it accumulated mutations at a  much faster rate than normal ( 1.5 mutations a month instead of usual 0.5 mutations indicating it was under strong selective pressure.

So ..where did it go for 18 months and what allowed its mutation rate to be so high ?

3 interesting theories but evidence points to 3rd theory.

1) It was circulating and mutating in a population which had no PCR testing, so was undetected but was infecting people and changing.  ( this however doesnt explain it's unusual high mutation rate)

2) It was in a chronically infected individual where it quietly gathered mutations.  For example a human with HIV cant clear the virus, it lives and divides and mutates  in that person continuously.  The person acts as an incubator.  This though still doesnt explain its high mutation rate. 

3)  In mid 2020 omicron predecessor left the human population and jumped into mice.  There it  underwent a faster mutation rate ( common in animals), the mutations were especially within the spike protein and  it is shown to have adapted to fit the slightly different  Mice ACE2 receptors perfectly.  18 months later  It  jumped back to humans.  Mice ACE2 receptors are more like our upper airways and not like our lower airways.  This meant the mutated virus now adapted to mice,  could accumulate in huge numbers in humans upper but not lower airways.  Here it is  close to the point of exit ( nose and mouth) so could be more infectious than Beta or Delta.  Also avoiding the lower airways could be less pathogenic.

So Dr Campbell finishes by saying....was it just luck that 

1) Omicron escapes vaccine, out competes pathogenic delta, and  infect and immunised us without causing severe disease.( data not complete yet but so far in Scotland indications are it is less  severe). ( also unknown if omicron can prevent reinfection with delta)

2) Are we also lucky that it was mice it jumped into and not another animal like camel.  Camels Ace2 receptors are like our lower airways.   So it could have emerged adapted  to more efficiently infect our lower airways and cause a MERS like illness which is 35%CFR.  ( lower airways is also closer to blood so becomes a blood virus as well as a lower respiratory.)

Anyway I found it interesting.  Must start telling my cats  "Mice are Nice"  and to stop drowning them.  My cats hold them under the water with their paws... it's a trait of their breed...crazy cats.


Back to Top
Littlesmile View Drop Down
V.I.P. Member
V.I.P. Member
Avatar

Joined: July 18 2016
Location: Northern irelan
Status: Offline
Points: 1815
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Littlesmile Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2022 at 7:03am

Thank you Hazelpad for the more positive outlook. I don't know about everyone else but I'm getting tired. It's hard to see this battle being won in this crazy crazy world. 

:-)
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Offline
Points: 76212
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2022 at 7:39am

CoVid-virus in US deer is NOT the Alpha or Delta variant that was spreading in humans but more related to the Wuhan-wild type variant from the early start of this pandemic. Apart from minks and some zoo animals/pets I notice "very limited CoViD" detected in animals...I think that may be good news...at least for now.

It is "likely" I think SE Asia bats can start a SARS-3 variant, could spread one of their around 30 corona virusses into some other animals (like MERS ending up in camels...MERS is not that easy to catch). 

With Omicron possibly a link of its development in mice [url]https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.14.472632v1.full[/url] or https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.14.472632v1.full (ggod reasons for such an idea) I would expect to see much more CoViD in non-human hosts...

One of the reasons why we may not find CoViD in animals is that we do not look for CoViD in animals [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/12/articles/miscellaneous/new-update-a-guide-to-mitigating-the-risk-of-infection-in-veterinary-practices-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-2/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/12/articles/miscellaneous/new-update-a-guide-to-mitigating-the-risk-of-infection-in-veterinary-practices-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-2/ but still if CoViD would be spreading in non human hosts on a relevant scale we would have seen it by now...

Maybe future developments may lead us into another species getting more CoViD but...so far this may leave room for some optimism...

Another idea woth considering is the 4 known corona-clold virusses may have started with maybe some kind of CoViD-pandemic as well-to turn into the "common mild cold"...so this pandemic may be going there on the longer run as well...Maybe that is an idea behind "living with the virus"  allthough the timegap between where we are now and this CoViD-19 becoming the 5th corona coldvirus may still bring lots of unwelcome surprises...I still think we have to limit CoViD the best we can...

Long Covid is very unwelcome, but I wonder if ME-CFS (etc) may be related to some other (corona ?) virus....and in that sense not new. 

Seeing this pandemic "as an interesting historic event" makes it possible for me to deal with it, create a certain distance...but still it is "hard" to deal with...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
ViQueen24 View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group
Avatar

Joined: May 14 2013
Location: Verona, PA
Status: Offline
Points: 12270
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2022 at 9:11am
I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down