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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

~~HK Meeting on Bird Flu~~ - Event Date: June 26 2006
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    Posted: June 26 2006 at 6:48pm
Medical professionals to attend tripartite meeting on infectious diseases in Dongguan
******************************************************

A delegation of medical and public health professionals, led by the Director of Health, Dr Lam Ping-yan, will attend the Sixth Tripartite Meeting of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Expert Group on the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases to be held in Dongguan on June 28 and 29.

During the meeting, experts from the three places will discuss issues relating to the overall strategy and the emergency preparedness for flu pandemic, control activities of other infectious diseases and further collaboration of medical and public health experts in the three places.

Chief representatives of the three places will also sign a co-operation agreement on emergency response of major public health incidents to facilitate further information exchange and enhance collaborative efforts in the investigation and control of emerging public health events.

Members of the Hong Kong delegation include Controller of the Centre for Health Protection (CHP), Dr Leung Pak-yin, Director (Professional Services and Operations) of the Hospital Authority (HA), Dr Cheung Wai-lun, HA¡¦s Deputy Director (Professional Services), Dr Liu Shao-haei, Consultant Physician (Infectious Diseases) of Princess Margaret Hospital, Dr Lai Sik-to, Consultant of the Department of Medicine and Geriatrics, Princess Margaret Hospital, Dr Yu Wai-cho, Head of CHP¡¦s Public Health Laboratory Services Branch, Dr Wilina Lim, and Head of CHP's Emergency Response and Information Branch, Miss Helen Tang.

Ends/Monday, June 26, 2006
Issued at HKT 18:55

NNNN
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2006 at 6:52pm
Ok this is SIGNIFICANT and here is why. Third paragraph references agreement on emergency response.
 
This is referring to HK's response activation system. At this level there is confirmed H2h outbreak.
 
Please research for yourself.
 
Am posting the LINK AND THE PAGE TO REFERENCE THE STATEMENTS ABOVE.
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http://www.info.gov.hk/info/flu/eng/files/checklist-e_flu_eng_20051105.pdf
 
Please read page 19-20 where it DETAILS THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2006 at 7:01pm
Would appreciate any other comments or interpretation of the situation.
 
Perhaps the suspected cases we are watching daily in HK is what precipitated this meeting.
 
 
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And am sure the BOOBS AT WHO WILL HAVE AN UPDATE ON THE SITUATION ANY DAY NOW.
 
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It is good that they are setting up a scenario to share information. They need to do this. One of the parties in this pact is Guangdong and that is where the recent death occurred in China with possible spread to HK.

 

Avian influenza – situation in China – update 12

16 June 2006

The Ministry of Health in China has confirmed the country’s 19th case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus.

The patient is a 31-year-old man employed as a truck driver in Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, near the border with Hong Kong. He developed symptoms on 3 June and was hospitalized on 9 June. He remains hospitalized, in critical condition, with severe pneumonia.

Investigation of his source of infection is under way. Preliminary reports indicate the man visited a local market where live poultry are sold on several occasions prior to symptom onset. However, health authorities have not been able to determine whether he was exposed to infected poultry at that market or elsewhere. H5N1 infections in poultry have not been officially reported in the area.

Of the 19 laboratory-confirmed cases in China reported to date, 12 have been fatal.
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Points: 73 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pspiegel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2006 at 7:12pm
PonyGirl, I see two interpretations here. The first is the one you've alluded to: efficient H2H transmission has been confirmed by the Chinese authorities, but they don't want to admit it yet. The second is a bit more encouraging: they've found H2H transmission at less-than-efficient levels, identified problems with information exchange and collaboratative responses and want to sit down to deal with those problems before something nasty actually happens.

Knowing a bit about China, I'd say the odds on either of these two interpretations are about even.
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Obviously shoveling all that horse**** has cleared my head enough to interpret what is really going on. Think we can read between the lines here.
 
Is there a media outlet that cares to take this to the next level..?
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Hospital Authority Enhanced Surveillance Programme
**************************************************

    In view of a human case of avian influenza H5N1 in Shenzhen, the Hospital Authority started the three-week Enhanced Surveillance Programme on June 15.

     Public hospitals should report to the Authority's e-Flu system all patients fulfilling the case definition of having pneumonia (all types) of unidentified etiology and who had travelled in the seven days before the onset of symptoms, to affected areas/countries with confirmed human cases of avian influenza infection in the past six months.

     The Hospital Authority yesterday and today (June 25-26) received the report of a total of 12 cases (five male and seven female, aged seven months to 78 years). So far, reports of 118 cases (67 male and 51 female, aged two months to 89 years) have been received. These patients had visited Guangdong, Hunan, Hubei, Fujian and Zhejiang before the onset of symptoms. The Hospital Authority has reported the cases to the Centre for Health Protection. Public hospitals are providing rapid tests for these patients.

Ends/Monday, June 26, 2006
Issued at HKT 17:55
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That is what has happened in 11 days and those are just the cases that they have on record. Some may have fallen through the cracks. Have no idea how efficient it is but appears to be spreading.
 
Maybe it will never gain the efficiency it needs to blow over to this continent. Certainly hope not.
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PonyGirl,
It could be just the wording used in the report. The Controller of the Center for Health Protection (CHP), Dr Leung Pak-yin is on the lower level of the command structure response during Serious Response Level. It may be he is getting his team together. He is one of the stated attendee's. I couldn't find the other attendee's listed on any of the command structures for any of the alert levels, except that it is stated that experts as needed will be called in. It sounds like to me that's what is happening here. 
If there were efficient H2H, it seems like we would be seeing more cases than we've seen so far. Another scenario could be that the virus has found a new host other than chickens and has become easier to catch. For example, if pigeons were infected with H5, and the strain was easier to catch than from chickens, we might see a lot of people getting sick in an urban setting. But still not have efficient H2H. Of course even if my scenario or something similar is in fact what is happening, this would most likely mean that we are very very close to efficient H2H. I for one have been stepping up my preps. I've got enough now for at least five months, but would like more of a safty net.
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Sounds to me like we are at level "serious".  The longer the birds are carrying around the infection, the greater the odds are that it will mutate to an efficient level.  I believe that the culling of birds is "buying time".  It almost seems inevitable.
 
Thank you Pony Girl for all of your investigation.  I've read many of your posts.
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Is there a media outlet that cares to take this to the next level..?
 
How about the New York Times.  That is where I just sent most of this thread. 
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Pony Girl...
Thanks for all of your research.  Indeed, you've got my attention!
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Sent to the Milwaukee Journal too.
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Originally posted by PonyGirl PonyGirl wrote:

http://www.info.gov.hk/info/flu/eng/files/checklist-e_flu_eng_20051105.pdf
 
Please read page 19-20 where it DETAILS THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE
 
PonyGirl... My take Level 3 Emergency Response Level has not been activated... It is still at Level One or Alert Level! 

I Confirmed that it is still at Alert Level here: http://www.info.gov.hk/info/flu/eng/index.htm
 
Here is how I read your first post emphasis in red:

" A delegation of medical and public health professionals, led by the Director of Health, Dr Lam Ping-yan, will attend the Sixth Tripartite Meeting of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Expert Group on the Prevention and Control of Infectious Diseases to be held in Dongguan on June 28 and 29.

During the meeting, experts from the three places will discuss issues relating to the overall strategy and the emergency preparedness for flu pandemic, control activities of other infectious diseases and further collaboration of medical and public health experts in the three places.

Chief representatives of the three places will also sign a co-operation agreement on emergency response of major public health incidents to facilitate further information exchange and enhance collaborative efforts in the investigation and control of emerging public health events."
 
Jhetta: Here Are More details on the PDF Document you posted ~ Emergency Prepardness for Influenza Pandemic in Hong Kong.
 
I typed out what Alert level Means and Why they activated it... in a previous post... Excerpt included below the following link: http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=9847&KW=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Einfo%2Egov%2Ehk%2Finfo%2Fflu%2Feng&PID=83894#83894
 
"Response Level : the Alert Response Level has been activated < The full plan is at this link
Hong Kong Government Response Systems ~ The Government's plan includes a three-level response system (Alert Response Level, Serious Response Level and Emergency Response Level). These levels are based on different risk-graded epidemiological scenarios relevant to Hong Kong, and each of them prescribes a given set of health actions required. They are de singed to match with the WHO's guideline for influenza pandemic planning.
 
Alert Response Level
Alert Response Level depicts the scenarios of confirmation of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in poultry populations outside Hong Kong: confirmations of HPAI in Hong Kong is imported birds in quarantine, in wild birds in recreational parks, in pet bird shops or in the natural environment. Upon the advice of the Director of Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation (DAFC), the Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food (SHWF) will activate this Response Level.

Another scenario depicts confirmation of human case(s) of avian influenza outside Hong Kong. WHWF will activate this Response Level upon the advice of Director Of Health (DOH)
 
Traditional Chinese Simplified Chinese Email this article Government Homepage
Hospital Authority activates Enhanced Surveillance Programme
************************************************************

The Hospital Authority announced today (June 14) that it would implement the Enhanced Surveillance Programme as recommended by the Central Committee on Infectious Disease (CCID) during an urgent meeting today.

The decision follows notification from the Health Department of Guangdong Province of a suspected human case of avian influenza H5N1 in Shenzhen, Meanwhile, all infection control measures under the current Yellow Alert are still in effect and Hong Kong people are encouraged to wash hands before and after visiting public hospitals and to put on masks when necessary.

An authority spokesman said that public hospital experts in various disciplines and representatives from the Centre for Health Protection (CHP) discussed in detail the authority's Infection Control Plan for Avian Influenza in view of the latest situation.  The CCID decided to implement a three-week Enhanced Surveillance Programme from tomorrow (June 15).

Public hospitals should report to the authority's e-Flu system all patients fulfilling the case definition of having pneumonia (all types) of unidentified etiology and who had travelled in the seven days before the onset of symptoms, to affected areas/ countries with confirmed human cases of avian influenza infection in the past six months.  This special Enhanced Surveillance Programme will be reviewed in three weeks' time."

 
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today's report states test are negative for H5N1.  Do you have a link for the announcement?
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Chinese Law Could Fine Disaster Reporting

Published: 6/26/06, 9:45 PM EDT

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BEIJING (AP) - A Chinese law imposing fines on media that report emergencies such as riots and natural disasters without official approval could go into effect by October, the government said Tuesday, as a rights group urged Beijing to scrap it.

Critics said the proposed law raised concerns over journalists' right to report on matters of public interest.

News organizations that report on emergencies without authorization or issue fraudulent reports would be fined between $6,250 $12,500 under the draft law, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

The legislation defines emergencies as industrial accidents, natural disasters, health and public security crisis.

The draft law was discussed Monday by Chinese lawmakers in the first of three planned legislative hearings. Following the hearings, the law could come into effect in about four months, Xinhua said.

The New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists on Tuesday urged China not to pass the law.

"The proposal furthers attempts by the administration of Chinese President Hu Jintao to restrict reporting by Chinas increasingly market-driven press," the group said in a statement.

Xinhua quoted an official with the Legislative Office under the State Council as saying the draft law, which has been under revision since 2003, was "not aimed at controlling the media."

"The focus is on banning the release of false or bias news reports," the report quoted Li Yuede as saying. "If the report did not contain detailed information, it would cause public concern."

Xinhua said some lawmakers were opposed to the current draft of the law and had suggested adding an additional chapter, but the report did not give specifics about the proposed changes.

 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 27 2006 at 4:06pm

News organizations that report on emergencies without authorization or issue fraudulent reports would be fined between $6,250 $12,500 under the draft law, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

The legislation defines emergencies as industrial accidents, natural disasters, health and public security crisis.
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