Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
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Posted: February 07 2006 at 7:04am |
Bird flu fears spread to southern Iraq
Updated 2006-02-07 14:38:35 Man who owned pigeons with deadly H5N1 strain dies with bird flu-like symptoms in Amara. By Fadel Mushatat - AMARA, Iraq The death in southern Iraq of a man with bird flu-like symptoms who owned pigeons with the deadly H5N1 strain has spurred fears the disease is spreading from the Kurdish north. The man who died in the city of Amara owned two pigeons which tested positive for the H5N1 strain, making him the first suspected human case of bird flu outside Kurdistan where two people have died of the disease. On Monday, Ibtisam Aziz, head of a committee set up to fight the virus, said the virus was still confined to a village in the Raniya area of Sulaimaniyah province where the first case involving a teenage girl was confirmed. Four people are currently under observation in Kurdistan as suspected bird flu patients, officials said Tuesday. Adel Muhajir al-Maliki, governor of Amara, said the man was admitted to a city hospital suffering from the flu but was discharged after five days and subsequently died at home on Sunday. "We suspect he died of bird flu as our investigations revealed that he had birds at home," Maliki said. Dawood Mohammed Sharif, head of Baghdad's veterinary laboratory, said samples from the man's two pigeons had tested positive for H5N1. "The samples of the pigeons have been sent to Cairo for further tests," Sharif said, while the governor added that samples taken from the man were dispatched to Baghdad. Jon C. Bowersox, health attache at the US embassy in Iraq, has warned against hunting birds. "Birds that are migrating down from the north could be infected and some people make their income by hunting birds. It is not simply a matter of chicken," Bowersox said. In Kirkuk, just south of the Kurdish provinces, rumors are rampant of avian flu cases being covered up by the local government and the price of a chicken has plummeted to a mere 500 dinars (0.33 dollars). In the city of Sulaimaniyah five people earlier suspected of suffering from bird flu were released Tuesday after their health improved following treatment, senior health official Mohammed Khushnow said. Of the five, Sabria Mohammed, a 40-year-old woman, was a carrier of H5N1 but her health improved after she was treated with the anti-avian influenza drug Tamiflu, he said. On Monday, Iraq confirmed its second human death from bird flu in the Kurdish north. Hamma Sur Abdullah, 40, who died of flu-like symptoms a little over a week after his niece, was confirmed by a lab in Cairo as having died of the same cause. A few days after Abdullah's death, the World Health Organisation (WHO) lab confirmed that the girl, Shajin Abdel Qader, had died of bird flu. Two WHO teams, meanwhile, were out in the field in Kurdistan on Tuesday assessing the capacity of the region's medical and veterinary services to tackle the threat. A consignment of masks, gloves and gowns was also being shipped out from the United States to help Iraqi doctors tackle any larger outbreak. "At the moment this is an agricultural emergency," Sam Yingst, one of the WHO team members, said on Sunday. "But we believe that there is a possibility that it may become a human public emergency though it will require a significant change in the nature of the virus." In the eastern province of Diyala along the Iranian border, health ministry officials were spreading disinfectant Monday around poultry-producing areas. http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=15680 Edited by Rick |
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See Dr. Nimans commentary at http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02070601/H5N1_Iraq_South.h tml |
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CountryGirl
Valued Member Joined: February 03 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 30 |
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Wow, I am so confused! Is there one death from BF today in southern Iraq or 2? The man age 40 with pigeons at home and a boy age 14 with pigeons or are these the same person?
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"Wow, I am so confused! Is there one death from BF today in southern Iraq or 2? The man age 40 with pigeons at home and a boy age 14 with pigeons or are these the same person?" ------- You are not the only one confused. "virus still confined to ..Rainya area", that is in northern Iraq. The guy with the piegeons in Amara is closer to Baghdad and not Rainya. "The man who died in the city of Amara owned two pigeons which tested positive for the H5N1 strain, making him the first suspected human case of bird flu outside Kurdistan where two people have died of the disease. On Monday, Ibtisam Aziz, head of a committee set up to fight the virus, said the virus was still confined to a village in the Raniya area of Sulaimaniyah province where the first case involving a teenage girl was confirmed. " I don't think you to connect anymore dots. Houston ground control, we have a problem. Edited by Rick |
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CountryGirl
Valued Member Joined: February 03 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 30 |
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Thanks Rick, That helped. So these are two seperate cases. This is bad!
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It's worse. The situation is out of control - what do expect it's a war zone,
poor bastards. |
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elbows
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 339 |
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Considering its a war zone the initial confusing (& downplayed) accounts from Iraq are remarkably similar to whats happened in many other countries. At least they have an excuse for poor detection & healthcare.
I agree with Dr Niman, H5N1 is likely spread around much of the Middle East already. I would expect Turkey and Iraq to be more likely to report accurately (or at all) than Syria, Iran and some others. But from the numbers we've seen so far we are still looking at pretty limited H2H stuff. If dozens of deaths in Iraq are reported then I will still see the state of affairs to be similar to how its been since May 2005, just with a wider geographical spread. |
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" I would expect Turkey and Iraq to be more likely to report
accurately (or at all) than Syria, " Today's WHO situation report from Iraq (FEB7/06,) paints a very grim picture, they don't have the tools or the resources they need. |
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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The problem with the current H2H is that it is detected after death as person is on way to health care or just getting health care in the advanced stages. How long have they been transmitting the virus. They are not identifing the virus till they are dead or near dead. Way too late. Alredy infecting others. |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Ella Fitzgerald
Valued Member Joined: January 15 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 586 |
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Once again a shining example of how WHO is failing man-kind! Although they gave a more extended report today on the avian flu situation in Iraq, http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_02_07/en/index.html , they still not reacting in a timely manner. Just look at the front page of their web-site! You have to search for information on the avain flu. Since this is a virus that threatens the entire world, one would think that it would be the main topic! Also as a resident of this 'world' I would like to demand that the WHO give reports on a daily basis. They also need one centralized spokesperson to help connect all the reports that are being published and reported in the media along with an action plan on how the situation is being handled. Is this too much to ask? Considering the seriousness of a pandemic, one would assume that all hands would be on deck to figure out a way to be preventive in the fight against the BF. Instead WHO is reacting to outbreaks taking several days to confirm the diagnosis of avian flu in victims that have expired. It is obvious that the leadership of the WHO is unorganized and overwhelmed in handling the seriousness of this threat and as this threat increases I have no faith in the WHO to save my life nor that of my family. SHAME ON YOU WHO! THE WORLD DESERVES BETTER THAN THIS! Edited by Ella Fitzgerald |
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niman
Valued Member Infectious Disease Expert Joined: December 10 2005 Status: Offline Points: 148 |
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So far there is only one fatality in the south (13 year old boy who's age has been 14 and 30 in media reports). However, there now appear to be FOUR fatalities in Iraq (the boy in the south, the index case and her uncle, and another case who has not been described). Only one reported case has been released, so current case fatality rate is 80%.
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elbows
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 339 |
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I would like to correct myself. The Qinghai sequences were an important development because of the E627K change. Turkey was another important development not just because of wider geographical spread, but the S227N polymorphism. I doubt Id know anything about this stuff it it wasnt for Dr Niman. Actually I was wondering if it is possible to predict what other dangerous polymorphisms are out there and are likely candidates for recombination as the geographic spread increases further? ie in the same way that you were able to suggest in advance that H5N1 spread to Middle East could result in it picking up S227N via recombination with H9N2, are there any obvious recombination candidates in Africa or Europe? |
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"Actually I was wondering if it is possible to predict what other dangerous polymorphisms are out there and are likely candidates for recombination as the geographic spread increases further? ie in the same way that you were able to suggest in advance that H5N1 spread to Middle East could result in it picking up S227N via recombination with H9N2, are there any obvious recombination candidates in Africa or Europe?" ------- If anyone here has a talent for numbers, I'd like to ask if applying the science non-linear dynamics to the situation might be possible. My understanding is that chaotic systems/biological are suited for this kind of analysis. Further to that, could the polymorphisms be considered bifurcations? Put another way... "In a dynamical system, a bifurcation is a period doubling, quadrupling, etc., that accompanies the onset of chaos. It represents the sudden appearance of a qualitatively different solution for a nonlinear system as some parameter is varied. " There was news recently that there was a new 5-year project trying to accomplish something similar. My 2-cents. http:// mathworld.wolfram.com/Bifurcation.html |
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meewee
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 595 |
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HUH??? Meewee |
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God Bless us all!
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