Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)

PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
123456
Forum Home Forum Home > Main Forums > Latest News
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - IRAQ:
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

IRAQ:

 Post Reply Post Reply
Author
Message
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: IRAQ:
    Posted: February 07 2006 at 7:04am
Bird flu fears spread to southern Iraq
 
Updated 2006-02-07 14:38:35

Man who owned pigeons with deadly H5N1 strain dies with bird flu-like
symptoms in Amara.
 
By Fadel Mushatat - AMARA, Iraq

The death in southern Iraq of a man with bird flu-like symptoms who
owned pigeons with the deadly H5N1 strain has spurred fears the disease
is spreading from the Kurdish north.

The man who died in the city of Amara owned two pigeons which tested
positive for the H5N1 strain, making him the first suspected human case
of bird flu outside Kurdistan where two people have died of the disease.

On Monday, Ibtisam Aziz, head of a committee set up to fight the virus,
said the virus was still confined to a village in the Raniya area of
Sulaimaniyah province where the first case involving a teenage girl was
confirmed.

Four people are currently under observation in Kurdistan as suspected
bird flu patients, officials said Tuesday.

Adel Muhajir al-Maliki, governor of Amara, said the man was admitted to
a city hospital suffering from the flu but was discharged after five days
and subsequently died at home on Sunday.

"We suspect he died of bird flu as our investigations revealed that he had
birds at home," Maliki said.

Dawood Mohammed Sharif, head of Baghdad's veterinary laboratory, said
samples from the man's two pigeons had tested positive for H5N1.

"The samples of the pigeons have been sent to Cairo for further tests,"
Sharif said, while the governor added that samples taken from the man
were dispatched to Baghdad.

Jon C. Bowersox, health attache at the US embassy in Iraq, has warned
against hunting birds.

"Birds that are migrating down from the north could be infected and some
people make their income by hunting birds. It is not simply a matter of
chicken," Bowersox said.

In Kirkuk, just south of the Kurdish provinces, rumors are rampant of
avian flu cases being covered up by the local government and the price of
a chicken has plummeted to a mere 500 dinars (0.33 dollars).

In the city of Sulaimaniyah five people earlier suspected of suffering from
bird flu were released Tuesday after their health improved following
treatment, senior health official Mohammed Khushnow said.

Of the five, Sabria Mohammed, a 40-year-old woman, was a carrier of
H5N1 but her health improved after she was treated with the anti-avian
influenza drug Tamiflu, he said.

On Monday, Iraq confirmed its second human death from bird flu in the
Kurdish north.

Hamma Sur Abdullah, 40, who died of flu-like symptoms a little over a
week after his niece, was confirmed by a lab in Cairo as having died of the
same cause.

A few days after Abdullah's death, the World Health Organisation (WHO)
lab confirmed that the girl, Shajin Abdel Qader, had died of bird flu.

Two WHO teams, meanwhile, were out in the field in Kurdistan on
Tuesday assessing the capacity of the region's medical and veterinary
services to tackle the threat.

A consignment of masks, gloves and gowns was also being shipped out
from the United States to help Iraqi doctors tackle any larger outbreak.

"At the moment this is an agricultural emergency," Sam Yingst, one of the
WHO team members, said on Sunday.

"But we believe that there is a possibility that it may become a human
public emergency though it will require a significant change in the nature
of the virus."

In the eastern province of Diyala along the Iranian border, health ministry
officials were spreading disinfectant Monday around poultry-producing
areas.




http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=15680

Edited by Rick
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2006 at 9:15am
Back to Top
CountryGirl View Drop Down
Valued Member
Valued Member
Avatar

Joined: February 03 2006
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 30
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CountryGirl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2006 at 10:31am
Wow, I am so confused! Is there one death from BF today in southern Iraq or 2? The man age 40 with pigeons at home and a boy age 14 with pigeons or are these the same person?
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2006 at 10:44am

"Wow, I am so confused! Is there one death from BF today in southern Iraq
or 2? The man age 40 with pigeons at home and a boy age 14 with
pigeons or are these the same person?"

-------

You are not the only one confused. "virus still confined to ..Rainya area",
that is in northern Iraq. The guy with the piegeons in Amara is closer to
Baghdad and not Rainya.

"The man who died in the city of Amara owned two pigeons which tested
positive for the H5N1 strain, making him the first suspected human case
of bird flu outside Kurdistan where two people have died of the disease.

On Monday, Ibtisam Aziz, head of a committee set up to fight the virus,
said the virus was still confined to a village in the Raniya area of
Sulaimaniyah province where the first case involving a teenage girl was
confirmed. "

I don't think you to connect anymore dots. Houston ground control, we
have a problem.


Edited by Rick
Back to Top
CountryGirl View Drop Down
Valued Member
Valued Member
Avatar

Joined: February 03 2006
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 30
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CountryGirl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2006 at 10:48am

Thanks Rick,

That helped.

So these are two seperate cases. This is bad!

 

 

Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2006 at 10:55am
It's worse. The situation is out of control - what do expect it's a war zone,
poor bastards.
Back to Top
elbows View Drop Down
V.I.P. Member
V.I.P. Member
Avatar

Joined: February 06 2006
Location: United Kingdom
Status: Offline
Points: 339
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote elbows Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2006 at 11:22am
Considering its a war zone the initial confusing (& downplayed) accounts from Iraq are remarkably similar to whats happened in many other countries. At least they have an excuse for poor detection & healthcare.

I agree with Dr Niman, H5N1 is likely spread around much of the Middle East already. I would expect Turkey and Iraq to be more likely to report accurately (or at all) than Syria, Iran and some others. But from the numbers we've seen so far we are still looking at pretty limited H2H stuff.  If dozens of deaths in Iraq are reported then I will still see the state of affairs to be similar to how its been since May 2005, just with a wider geographical spread.
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2006 at 11:52am
" I would expect Turkey and Iraq to be more likely to report
accurately (or at all) than Syria, "


Today's WHO situation report from Iraq (FEB7/06,) paints a very grim
picture, they don't have the tools or the resources they need.
Back to Top
Corn View Drop Down
Valued Member
Valued Member


Joined: December 13 2005
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 1219
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Corn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2006 at 3:48pm

The problem with the current H2H is that it is detected after death as person is on way to health care or just getting health care in the advanced stages.

How long have they been transmitting the virus. They are not identifing the virus till they are dead or near dead. Way too late. Alredy infecting others.

Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
Back to Top
Ella Fitzgerald View Drop Down
Valued Member
Valued Member
Avatar

Joined: January 15 2006
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 586
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ella Fitzgerald Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2006 at 4:10pm

Once again a shining example of how WHO is failing man-kind! Although they gave a more extended report today on the avian flu situation in Iraq, http://www.who.int/csr/don/2006_02_07/en/index.html , they still not reacting in a timely manner. Just look at the front page of their web-site! You have to search for information on the avain flu. Since this is a virus that threatens the entire world, one would think that it would be the main topic! Also as a resident of this 'world' I would like to demand that the WHO give reports on a daily basis. They also need one centralized spokesperson to help connect all the reports that are being published and reported in the media along with an action plan on how the situation is being handled. Is this too much to ask?

Considering the seriousness of a pandemic, one would assume that all hands would be on deck to figure out a way to be preventive in the fight against the BF. Instead WHO is reacting to outbreaks taking several days to confirm the diagnosis of avian flu in victims that have expired.

It is obvious that the leadership of the WHO is unorganized and overwhelmed in handling the seriousness of this threat and as this threat increases I have no faith in the WHO to save my life nor that of my family.

SHAME ON YOU WHO! THE WORLD DESERVES BETTER THAN THIS!



Edited by Ella Fitzgerald
Back to Top
niman View Drop Down
Valued Member
Valued Member

Infectious Disease Expert

Joined: December 10 2005
Status: Offline
Points: 148
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote niman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2006 at 5:07pm
So far there is only one fatality in the south (13 year old boy who's age has been 14 and 30 in media reports).  However, there now appear to be FOUR fatalities in Iraq (the boy in the south, the index case and her uncle, and another case who has not been described).  Only one reported case has been released, so current case fatality rate is 80%.
Back to Top
elbows View Drop Down
V.I.P. Member
V.I.P. Member
Avatar

Joined: February 06 2006
Location: United Kingdom
Status: Offline
Points: 339
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote elbows Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 08 2006 at 2:10pm
Originally posted by elbows elbows wrote:

If dozens of deaths in Iraq are reported then I will still see the state of affairs to be similar to how its been since May 2005, just with a wider geographical spread.


I would like to correct myself. The Qinghai sequences were an important development because of the E627K change. Turkey was another important development not just because of wider geographical spread, but the S227N polymorphism.

I doubt Id know anything about this stuff it it wasnt for Dr Niman.

Actually I was wondering if it is possible to predict what other dangerous polymorphisms are out there and are likely candidates for recombination as the geographic spread increases further? ie in the same way that you were able to suggest in advance that H5N1 spread to Middle East could result in it picking up S227N via recombination with H9N2, are there any obvious recombination candidates in Africa or Europe?
Back to Top
Guests View Drop Down
Guest Group
Guest Group
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 08 2006 at 3:57pm

"Actually I was wondering if it is possible to predict what
other dangerous polymorphisms are out there and are likely candidates
for recombination as the geographic spread increases further? ie in the
same way that you were able to suggest in advance that H5N1 spread to
Middle East could result in it picking up S227N via recombination with
H9N2, are there any obvious recombination candidates in Africa or
Europe?"


-------
If anyone here has a talent for numbers, I'd like to ask if applying the
science non-linear dynamics to the situation might be possible. My
understanding is that chaotic systems/biological are suited for this
kind of analysis.

Further to that, could the polymorphisms be considered bifurcations?

Put another way...

"In a dynamical system, a bifurcation is a period doubling, quadrupling,
etc., that accompanies the onset of chaos. It represents the sudden
appearance of a qualitatively different solution for a nonlinear system as
some parameter is varied. "

There was news recently that there was a new 5-year project trying to
accomplish something similar.

My 2-cents.



http://
mathworld.wolfram.com/Bifurcation.html
Back to Top
meewee View Drop Down
Valued Member
Valued Member
Avatar

Joined: December 13 2005
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 595
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote meewee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 08 2006 at 4:03pm

HUH???

Meewee

God Bless us all!
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down