100% death rate on Egyptian Birdflu....

gnfin,

Cruiser referring to the last three cases. Each one of them died...

I was just referring to the last three deaths in Egypt. they were the last three we heard about that had the virus.

Poverty plays a big part in this virus will play out and interfer with the real numbers of the flu cases being documented.

Not everyone can afford a doctor. In truth I dont go to the doctor for a flu unless there are secondary symtems (lingering congestion , fever vomiting that lasted more than two days.)otherwise most people just tough it out. Its a given that indivuals living with exteme poverty would not go to a doctor with a mild formof anything..

I just dont see anyone doing any real tracking of the virus. Only the real severe cases would even show up on the satistis. Poverty changes how the pattern of the virus is tracked.




    
    

The stats may not reflect the actual mortality rates, but that is not necessarily good news. There have been deaths of "suspected" or "probable" H5N1 infections where the body had been properly disposed of and we would not have even heard about had no one else in the family also been infected and hospitalized/died, and this was mostly clusters. So my thinking is that others have died who have not been reported or even suspected. And the stats only reflect WHO confirmed cases at any rate, and we all know there have been deaths of siblings and parents who were never tested and confirmed and so are not added to the stats. Also, these tests are expensive and in confirmed cases with  like symptoms in neighbors and/or family, especially if they are already dead, the tests are not run for that very reason. The dead then become a "suspected" or "probable" but being unconfirmed they are not counted. I think the death rate may be higher and I also think that poverty contributes to that. As Margreth said, " Poverty changes how the pattern of the virus is tracked. "

Surely 100% death rate means a pandemic is a bit less likely .

Anything less means more sick or partially recovered people walking around
infecting others.

Its when the death rate drops that you really have to worry.

I have never seen any evidence to support the idea that the virus would have to weaken before making the jump.  I have not read anything about this nor have any leading experts ever suggested it.  If there is something published regarding this, I would like to see it, otherwise, it's just speculation. 

Hi Ross, I have heard that theory before on this forum, but I have never heard anything else about it.  Unless there is research to support it, then it quite simply is not true.   No experts that I have seen have ever hinted or suggested that it would weaken as even a remote possibility. 

Having said that, if you can prove your argument, I would like to see some information about it. 

Laro - I am not saying that it cannot become a pandemic with a 100%
fatality rate . In fact I think it highly likely that  many less well organized counties  in Africa  will take a very heavy hit.

However it is easier for  wealthier , better organised communties to keep
some sort of lid on it  if there are no  survivor/carriers roaming in the community .

I think you are assuming that Goverments and people will keep on doing what they normal do .
If the fatality rate is 100% ( or even 10% ) Goverments will implement very harsh controls ( freedom of movement etc ) and most people will start exercising social distancing and other protective measures.

The other issue is ofcourse , is how long the incubation period is and how
infectious the person is during the early stages  .

Ros-- you and i both know that every government will try to downplay any type of in H5N1 outbreak.  If it goes pandmic, let's at least admit that if it's 10% infection, the government will downplay it and maybe admit to 1%.  Did the US government even admit in 1918 that we had a pandamic going?  Absolutely not, they even sent sick service men to war in Europe and the spread of the flu was worse then ever.  Do you even think things are better today and a government is more honest now?  Take a look at recent history, Watergate, Vietnam War, today's gulf war & the "weapons fo mass destruction" crap.

An h5n1 panflu could be a difficult one to get through for a lot of people.  If you don't think that you could get to tamiflu within the initial 48 hours of the symptoms appearing, then the other plan would have to entail somewhat of extreme isolation in your home.  You would have to wait it out until the vax is developed or until tamiflu is distributed.    

I think Ross theory is based on the fact that virus like Ebola kill most people who get it. Therefore the vrus ends. The higher the death rate the quicker the virus burns out. It not aexact science or is it.
If the virus death rate dropped then there would be more people spreading the illness befor it could be contained.


    

Margrett
 
I am sure it is . But it more open democratic countries the truth frequently
rises to the surface anyway .

The point I think is , that if  our Government introduced strict censorship
or just plain lied but failed because of the internet  , then they would run
the risk of completely losing the peoples trust which would make further
managment of the Pandemic even more difficult.

Hi cap1, good to hear from you.   If the host lives, the natural immune system might kill the virus in a matter of a few days.  In some cases, the virus might live longer by killing its host over time, before the immune system kills it.  Quite honestly, I don't think it matters much one way or another.  Now, just because it's as lethal as it is, that doesn't mean that the CFR and mortality rate can't be held down to a minimum.  From using natural remedies, to tamiflu blankets, to home isolation & quarantines, and with everybody working together, there are many things that we could do to keep the overall CFR well under 10%.   

Interesting!