‘Random’ bird flu baffles Indonesian scientists

http://www.newsnow.co.uk/newsfeed/?name=Bird+Flu

‘Random’ bird flu baffles Indonesian scientists
Web posted at: 4/1/2007 11:48:27
Source ::: AFP
JAKARTA • Indonesian scientists said they remained baffled by the “random” behaviour of the bird flu virus afflicting the country, after a top-level meeting here yesterday.

About 40 scientists from all over the country met to discuss the disease which has claimed 69 deaths in Indonesia, making it the world’s worst-hit country.

“The random aspect of the disease ... unfortunately led scientists to say that (the behaviour of) the virus remains a mystery,” said Bayu Krisnamurthi, head of the national commission on bird flu control.

Indonesia’s deaths came from 89 reported cases. The WHO says the deadly H5N1 strain has infected 284 people worldwide and killed 169 of them, mostly in Southeast Asia, since the end of 2003.

Wide differences were seen in the patterns of human infections and development of various stages of the disease, making it difficult to predict, said Krisnamurthi.

“There was no correlation found between (a patient’s) age, sex, genetics, and other (attributes),” he said.

“What is clear is the risk factors, such as contact with sick birds, sanitation, and so on, but this is very general.” Krisnamurthi gave an example where three members of a family showed similar symptoms this year, but only the mother and son tested positive. The mother later died of the disease and the son survived.

“All we know is that patients died of multi-organ failure at the late stages of the illness,” he said.

Krisnamurthi said more in-depth study was needed out on human infections “and the only way to do this is by carrying out autopsies on fatal human victims.” Less than 10 fatal cases worldwide and none of the victims died in Indonesia have undergone autopsies, he said.

“We have only known that the virus is found in the respiratory organs of infected patients. It is possible that it can be found on other organs, but we wouldn’t know that without an autopsy,” he said.

Autopsies on dead infected birds showed that the virus had spread to many other organs, causing them to fail. Scientists worry the virus could mutate into a form easily spread among humans, leading to a global pandemic with the potential to kill millions.

However, Krisnamurthi affirmed that “studies showed that the virus is stable.” Indonesian experts will meet soon to compare DNA sequencing of human and poultry viruses.

“We hope that there are no significant differences, which means the animal virus has not changed itself into a human virus ... otherwise it means that it can spread between humans,” said Krisnamurthi.

He also called for a diagnosis kit which could save lives in rural areas.

“The trend shows in Indonesia, more patients from the rural areas are treated late and died ... because they are far from referral hospitals,” Krisnamurthi said. “It is critical to apply some sort of an early detection mechanism and until now we don’t have a highly dependable kit.”

Quote;"He also called for a diagnosis kit which could save lives in rural areas."

Are they talking about a rapid flu test here? The test that will confirm flu type but not strain? Thanks in advance...anyone?