The Amazing News Blackouts

    I think as far as blackout goes, maybe it's for the best. Riots and rape gangs would be avoided. I'd like to have advanced warning but I'm sure we'll see the signs. NOrmally, only two out of then people I know ever have the flu that I see and I've never caught it from them. I'll just wait and see what happens.

I think as far as blackout goes, maybe it's for the best. Riots and rape gangs would be avoided. I'd like to have advanced warning but I'm sure we'll see the signs. NOrmally, only two out of then people I know ever have the flu that I see and I've never caught it from them. I'll just wait and see what happens.

Hey John, I agree with you! The "ones in the know" are going to keep the news of Pan flu under their hat's as long as they possibly can to avoid premature panicking and chaos.
In my own opinion , i think we are very close to tha pandemic starting. If we hear of 1 more breakout of disease in any other part of the world,i would be very concerned! Mynamar- what really is happening over there??

MED: IT IS DEATHLY QUIET-MAJOR BLACKOUT! COULD VERY WELL BE "THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM"..
    

Always the optimist, John.

"I just feel that even with all our preps without advanced warning we could get sick and die anyway."

To be honest John, in a pandemic it's not the virus itself that worries me so much as the way I think people will react if it turns out to be a major outbreak. Even if fatalities reached one in ten (the 60% CFR we're seeing now will most likely drop dramatically when the virus mutates to a human form) the odds are still greatly in your favor. The mobs wandering the streets looking for food and water will be a different story. They scare the hell out of me.

    Without advanced warning, with all our preps we can still get infected.

Reality: Seems like your becomming more concerned lately about the possible BF pandemic? In the past you made fun at a lot of us here. Are you preparing for it?

jacksdad wrote: "I just feel that even with all our preps without advanced warning we could get sick and die anyway." To be honest John, in a pandemic it's not the virus itself that worries me so much as the way I think people will react if it turns out to be a major outbreak. Even if fatalities reached one in ten (the 60% CFR we're seeing now will most likely drop dramatically when the virus mutates to a human form) the odds are still greatly in your favor. The mobs wandering the streets looking for food and water will be a different story. They scare the hell out of me.

I totally agree with you much like the fire in the theater or a group of pilgrims who get crushed to death in a large crowd, sometimes fear or panic is our worst enemy.

There has been a HEAVY spin on the dropping of Pandemic death rate versus the case rate we have now. I want that to be so. And I am sure it will be worse in 3rd world countries than the U.S. or U.K.

As with the economic impact, there are tons of variables here and in some ways we are in places no one has really been before. We know a large death rate can happen. The Black Death in Europe. Yes, we have antibiotics, more advanced medicine, but we also have the "you have a cold - that is a virus - there is nothing we can do for you to cure it - and despite 600 years of research - we do have Tylenol instead of some herbal blend (even the Egyptians had that 4,000 years ago.

The point is some will say during "The Plague" medicine was primitive, but that is really not much more than a bandage.  A viral Pandemic without a vaccine or an effective anti-viral could still reach many people.

Consider the flu each year. There is no problem in it spreading to many people, especially the rash of colds.  We are also considering that viruses will continue to behave as they have and overlooking the essence of evolution and the fact that new strains of Avian in some cases are more virulent and more deadly than earlier ones.

In beginning this thread the idea was a rather simplistic one. Just a writer person saying, I am researching and looking for information about some recent outbreaks and it just isn't on the mainstream news.

When Ebola first hit Africa, it was on the mainstream news. Movies were made about it, big concerns, people in bunny suits and entire villages wiped out.  With Ebola you don't have someone telling you, well when it spread to people it became less lethal. The death rate in some villages was at least 90%.

One of my mom's most interesting things she once told me in research, may sound rather basic, but is very true. Consider the source. Every piece of information you come across, consider who is writing it, and why.

The idea here, for me, is so that people will at least give some credibility to the fact we have a good chance of a Pandemic and with some preparation and observation we can save lives and MANY people will survive and life will go on.

Yet if 99% of the people do not take things seriously and only 1% do, you have some bad scenarios of families without food who did not prepare that are starving getting not nice with people that did.

The idea is be positive but realistic. We don't want to depress people.. just prepare them. At least that is how I feel.

Medclinician

    Tomorrow is a big day, I'm getting a flu shot >and< a pneumonia shot.

"People who work as Health care workers in ANY capacity will be very vunerable. The incubation time line has me greatly concerned. But then again driving a bus also may prove fatal."

I work in healthcare and while I was researching BF and it's impact on my job I found references to people in certain mission critical occupations that would be prophylactically dosed with Tamiflu. I'm lumped in there with ER and ICU workers. That's all well and good except do we know with any great degree of certainty that it works? Not 100% from what I've read, and it has to be in your system in sufficient amounts at the right time to have any effect. I guess it's supposed to reassure us that it's okay to come to work, but I know coworkers who will most definitely exhibit social distancing at the drop of a hat, and under the circumstances with families back home not receiving Tamiflu, they have a very compelling argument. Of course all this is something of a moot point as when I questioned my supervisor about BF contigency plans all I got was a blank stare. I contacted the company directly and they replied that they'll "defer to the local health authority and CDC if it happens". Alrighty then. The reality of the situation is that we rely on a constant supply of pure water (we use city water in large amounts) and our equipment won't run without a reliable source of electricity. That's on top of the disposable sterile items which are trucked in regularly. If at the last minute we'll be relying on the advice of the local authority and the CDC I'm not sure how this will work without generators (which I should imagine by that time will be impossible to find and fuel) and water supplies to hand. Prophylactic Tamiflu or not, I have grave doubts that my place of work will even be open during a major pandemic.

Dialysis tech.

    They wouldn't give me the pneumonia shot, it's for 65 and over unless I had a doctors prescription, but got the regular flu shot

Back on track to data concerning News Black Outs.

IMHO It is a given that news blackouts happen, certain news stories get canned, and if not completely blacked out, news gets watered down, restated, and this is the most dramatic in countries outside the United States where news may sometimes not ever be published.

There is always news. In a country like China with several billion people and X hospitals and 3 Pandemics in full tilt - Malaria, Dengue Fever, and TB - everyday X number of people die, and sometimes in a year, the figures approach 60,000,000 or more for a disease, while at the same time we may fret over a few hundred Avian deaths, while tens of millions of people are dying from current spreading Pandemics.

Now if you have a large extended family like some of us do, with lots of kids, and in your immediate circle in a small town 200 kids are out with measles and on the official report for the state one case is listed for the month, one quickly begins to lose faith in official statistics.

This is enhanced by when you talk to a sister-in-law with three kids who takes them into the clinic, and they are tested and she calls you at 3 a.m. and says, you better keep your new baby clear of us for a week or so, cos i took the kids down, and all three of them the doctor said have the measles.

Other cases would be a dentist link where this one poor dentist got them 3x and finally separated and then barred coughing or feverish kids from dental treatment until they got better.

In the last year we have had measles outbreaks, norovirus, mumps, and at times calls have been made and the simple question asked from the clinic - this patient was diagnosed with X and based on reports no one for 100 miles had the disease.

Today went on one of the sites with Avian news, and instead of many stories of Avian over the globe, we have 16 different versions of one 12 year old dying in Indonesia.

Well, it is not like this is not significant. The problem is some of us have relatives in Indonesia or in Vietnam or Thailand, and X number of people die on respirators bleeding profusely, and then there is an announcement, there have been no cases for X months in this country. Somebody talks to their sister who is a nurse and two people who wrapped up the body are pretty ill and website article flicker on and off like Xmas lights. Well, reading link X two months ago, which was a verified H5N1 and then stating.. the very opposite, after it was confirmed... what to think?

Every day I find news on Avian somewhere with very rare exceptions. There is an outbreak of HxNx in X location and it makes it out there one time and then zip. It is gone.

Was it Macbeth or Hamlet?- methinks the lady protesteth too much. Death never takes holidays.

This last month or two months we have the sudden declaration that Avian has mutated and is more dangerous. We have more deaths in Indonesia - we have finally after a year that Avian was probably passed person to person and actually several clusters - where it was likely.

In every paper, on every news station, everywhere, there is more news than can be broadcast, and someone picks and chooses what will got out there and what won't. Is this a conspiracy? No. But what are the criteria for what goes out and what doesn't? Human interest? Advertisers? What will cause a boycott on the poultry and lose hundreds of millions of dollars?

Common sense is a great tool for deductive reasoning and logic. If a piece of the pizza is missing, someone probably ate it. Yes, it could have been blown away by the wind inside the room and out the window- Yes the delivery boy could have stumbled and it somehow it fell from the sealed box - but in most cases - the most logical obvious explanation for an event is usually what happened. It was eaten.

Statistics is an art. And media and polls are beyond an art. They are as classy as dressing up someone, or picturing them with a cigarette in front of a golden sunrise, with a buddy sipping a beer in a boat - and saying "sharing those special moments with a friend." 

Well, those special moments can turn into other special moments in Oncology after being beguiled for 30 years only to find - your fishing alone now.

America and many nations are more educated now than any other time in history. The networks spans the globe and in seconds you can search and find out just about anything.

We approach another deadly Pandemic. Not if, but when. This is backed up by mountains of research and has been said by leaders of our health departments and politicians.

Barnum may have said there is a sucker born every minute - but in these times - someone who doesn't need letters after their names or titles to see the obvious. Sometimes we don't get told everything. And that is the way it is. But in addition to the sucker, there is someone who has an amazing ability to tell the truth from what is not.

posted by Medclinician

No, but they will take your food. For the greater good, of course.

Once upon a time about two years ago it was said:


Bush Wants Right to Use Military if Bird Flu Hits
By Charles Aldinger
Reuters

Tuesday 04 October 2005

Washington - President George W. Bush asked Congress on Tuesday to consider giving him powers to use the military to enforce quarantines in case of an avian influenza epidemic.

He said the military, and perhaps the National Guard, might be needed to take such a role if the feared H5N1 bird flu virus changes enough to cause widespread human infection.

"If we had an outbreak somewhere in the United States, do we not then quarantine that part of the country? And how do you, then, enforce a quarantine?" Bush asked at a news conference.

"It's one thing to shut down airplanes. It's another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu. And who best to be able to effect a quarantine?" Bush added.

"One option is the use of a military that's able to plan and move. So that's why I put it on the table. I think it's an important debate for Congress to have."

Bird flu has killed more than 60 people in four Asian nations since late 2003 and has been found in birds in Russia and Europe.

Experts fear that the H5N1 bird flu virus, which appears to be highly fatal when it infects people, will develop the ability to pass easily from person to person and would cause a pandemic that would kill millions.

"And I think the president ought to have all ... assets on the table to be able to deal with something this significant," Bush said.

He noted that some governors may object to the federal government commandeering the National Guard, which is under state command in most circumstances.

Police Duties Banned

"But Congress needs to take a look at circumstances that may need to vest the capacity of the president to move beyond that debate. And one such catastrophe or one such challenge could be an avian flu outbreak," Bush said.

The active duty military is currently forbidden from undertaking law enforcement duties by the federal Posse Comitatus Act.

That law, passed in 1878 after the US Civil War, does not prohibit National Guard troops under state control from doing police work. But, unless the law is changed, it would keep them from doing so if they were activated by Washington under federal control.

While the law allows the president to order the military to take control and do police work in an extreme emergency, the White House has been traditionally reluctant to usurp state powers.

Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman told reporters he was not aware of any current planning by the military to help respond to a flu pandemic.

But he noted that after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated the Gulf region, Bush had asked Congress to consider giving the military control over initial response in dealing with major natural or other domestic disasters.

"Obviously the (Defense) Department has a tremendous amount of capability in a lot of areas. And we are a large force," Whitman said, noting also that the military had deployed field hospitals to Louisiana after the hurricanes.

Health experts are working to develop vaccines that would protect against the H5N1 strain of flu, because current influenza vaccines will not.

And countries are also developing stockpiles of drugs that can reduce the risk of serious disease or even sometimes prevent infection - but supplies and manufacturing capacity are both limited.

Bush said he was involved in planning for an influenza pandemic, which experts say will definitely come, although they cannot predict when, or whether it will be H5N1 or some other virus.

Comment: So the idea of using the U.S. military to enforce quarantines would imply that those violating the quarantine could be killed.

According to the Web site of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), “HHS [U.S. Department of Health and Human Services] has recommended that influenza caused by new or re-emerging influenza viruses that are either 1) causing a pandemic or 2) are not in global circulation among humans and have the potential to cause pandemics should be added to the list of communicable diseases for which apprehension, isolation, detention, or conditional release are authorized.”

A representative of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) pointed out that voluntary home quarantines would be a first step.

Federal authorities would implement national quarantine protocols in conjunction with, or with authority over state and local governments.

(see next post)

[QUOTE=medclinician]

The president did visit a destroyed John Deere dealership where officials were told that the farm and lawn equipment company had pledged to reopen the Greensburg assembly line in order to get equipment built in time for the spring harvest a month and a half away. The company is also sending extra loaders and dumpsters from other areas to help clear out the mess.

/QUOTE]

"Do you guys think the military will kill the infected?"

John, sometimes your posts are so dark and depressing I just want to come up there and give you a big hug, buddy. No, I don't think they'll be culling us. It wouldn't serve any real purpose, and I think the military, police and National Guard would be so overwhelmed in a full blown pandemic that they simply wouldn't have the resources to do it anyway.
You've talked in the past of pandemic "armageddon". Maybe it's my way of dealing with the potential enormity of a major pandemic, but I can't think of it that way. If it hits, I think it will be a little worse than seasonal flu and we all heave a collective sigh of relief, or it'll sideswipe us like 1918, and life will be very uncomfortable for a while. But the thing is, John, life will go on afterwards. It may take a while for the world to get back on it's feet, but we'll still be here, a little wiser and a lot less complacent.
I think negativity is a bad thing for those of us on this forum. We're doing something positive here - sharing ideas and thoughts, reassuring each other that we're right and the naysayers are dead wrong - and I don't see that sinking into an end of the world mentality is useful. I have a kid so I have to think he'll survive to leave his mark on this world. If I thought of it in terms of armageddon, I'd be overwhelmed by what might be around the corner and it would beat me before it started. Never stop fighting, never give up.   

Please don't take offense, John. It wasn't a personal attack. After all, we're on the same side here.

IMHO

Back on topic - the Avian flu news blackout from Indonesia and Australia

It continues.

posted by Medclinician

medclinician wrote: IMHO Back on topic - the Avian flu news blackout from Indonesia and Australia It continues. posted by Medclinician

(continued)

20 minutes later, second story... we heard "something" and "something was moving". There are many simple explanations.

She dropped the one and only flashlight which broke, plunging us into total darkness, screamed at the top of her lungs. which caused my friends date to join her screaming.. and almost broke her neck stumbling at full run down the stairs.

So much... I won't panic.  And despite some irritations I may have on certain issues truthfully, full disclosure until we are in a better position to handle the backlash, will do more harm than good.  If given 3 bad scenarios, we must pick the least harmful scenario which will preserve our country and try and save as many lives as possible.

Well, so.. there you have it. And quite honestly we don't even have that assurance do we from the American public nor do we have a great track record of behavior in power blackouts, unpopular jury verdicts, or such situations. And of course there is Wall Street, who like a cat on a hot tin roof..and voices saying "you really shouldn't sell."  They will sell.

Can the public be trusted not to panic?

No.

Will they?


Well, a fair number will if ..... you can fill in your own scenarios here.

And if you were in charge what would you be doing if Patient Zero is reported positive with high path Avian - new strain - location X.  You would be running with CDC and Homeland through your red book or whatever and trying to paint by numbers.

Well, a little common sense. Authorities and government - head down below. Troops mobilize - aircraft carriers - some divert - some go to ready points - national defenses - full alert - announced defenses - no change.
We cannot make an effective vaccine without X deaths and samples of the virus to know what to make. Yes, I know, we can do elegant genetics to design something that will anticipate or wide range - real world - unlikely. it will chemistry in a .gov lab racing to beat the clock and also remember - it takes people - well people to manufacture vaccine. Other countries, and consider their situation will be thinking of numero uno and sharing.  There may not be a lot of sharing going on.

Lots of shots will be given. This is whether or not they are effective against the strain.

Stocks. Economy. Social order.  Not that great.  Tellers open. Dream on. Wall Street as per inside conversation has a network for exchange even if there are NO communications. This is not my area, so talk to your broker.

Used to have a friend who I finally had to tell.. X ... there is the way things should be and there is the way things are. You waste your life on the way things should be and I deal with the way things are.

And right now - we hear a lot about a lot of news which has nothing to do with epidemics and Pandemics which currently exist.  Lots of specials though. Media is great on specials. Preparing for the Pandemic. Entertainment value only.

I continue to work on a "Survival Guide" which can only go out rather soon or it will be a mute issue of one copy unsold on a laptop with 4 hours of battery life.

And the truth - there is only so much that can be done and only so much that will be done.. and a lot of statements, if any of what can't be done.

Watch Indonesia. Watch Canada. Watch wet places with high humidity -it is likely to be droplet and liquid catchable.. so even a paint mask may help ...some. IMHO. Want an official mask efficient report - talk to a doctor or look on .gov and most of all - use the Internet to print out as much data as you can on basic survival stuff and make those trips to Wall Mart for water, canned stuff, and WITHIN THE LOCAL LEGAL possession of things to protect you, know that everyone is not going to play nice. And that there will not be a line of whoever protecting you against the ones who won't.

I do sincerely care about all of you and will do what I can, which is not huge, to encourage level headed realistic evaluation of the situation.

Hint - think community - think each other - think there may be enough vaccine in 2010. Okay. Moving right along.  Think 6 to 18 months .. because it will be 6 to 18 months before we can even begin to think... returning to normal.

IMHO in the worst Pandemic possible due to many factors, there will be MANY survivors. Be one of them.

posted by Medclinician