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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Pandemic Severity Index.

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Albert View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 23 2008 at 9:27am
I wonder if the reason why CIDRAP's pandemic severity index never took hold is because their percentages don't make sense.   They did not place the decimal in the correct place which makes it confusing.  Plus, Category 1 flat out doesn't make sense because there is not a bottom CFR number used to create a range, which means any flu season qualifies as a category 1.
 

The current pandemic severity index levels are:

  • Category 1, CFR of less than 0.1%
  • Category 2, CFR 0.1% to 0.5%
  • Category 3, CFR 0.5% to 1%
  • Category 4, CFR 1% to 2%
  • Category 5, CFR 2% or higher
 
Here is the correct way to use the decimal when defining the CFR percent:  
 

Cat 1    CFR less than .001%

Cat 2   .001%    to        .005%

Cat 3.  .005%    to        .01%

Cat 4.  .01%      to        .02%

Cat 5   .02%      to        and Higher

 

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hachiban08 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hachiban08 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2008 at 9:48am
what is cfr?
Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v
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Albert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2008 at 9:55am
Originally posted by hachiban08 hachiban08 wrote:

what is cfr?
 
CFR is the "Case Fatality Rate".  Also refered to as the Mortality Rate or Death Rate.  It's the percent of cases that are fatal.  
 
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Suzi View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Suzi Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2008 at 6:32pm
So it's a Cat 5 if the CFR is 5% or 25%? I sort of understand because if a 120 mph wind can wipe off the landscape what does it matter if it is 300 mph.
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