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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Preparing for a pandemic

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Kilt2 View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 29 2008 at 8:40pm
Preparing for a pandemic

The recent spread of the Asian bird flu across Asia and Europe, added to the fact there hasn't been an influenza pandemic in 36 years, is fuelling concerns that an outbreak is due.

Many people wonder how real the threat is. If a pandemic struck, how capable we would be to handle it?

Read on to find out answers to some important questions.

What exactly is pandemic influenza?
Each year, a vaccine is developed to help prevent or reduce the impact of influenza or "the flu," based on three known strains of the influenza virus (influenza A, B, and C).

But if a radically different new strain of the virus suddenly were to strike, people would have little or potentially no immunity to it.

This would pose a serious risk to their health, including susceptibility to infection, pneumonia or death and more significantly, the possibility that the virus would spread widely and rapidly. Such mass spreading is what is known as a pandemic.

In the case of a pandemic, there would likely be as many as three waves of outbreaks taking place over several months.

Historical patterns
While there is no set timetable, pandemics typically have occurred once every generation.

In the previous century, there were three pandemics in 1918, 1957 and 1968, respectively. The 1918 "Spanish flu" was particularly virulent, killing some 20 million people.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, "the 1957-58 and 1968-69 pandemics were caused by viruses containing a combination of genes from a human influenza virus and an avian influenza virus. The 1918-19 pandemic virus appears to have an avian origin."

Because there hasn't been one in 36 years, experts believe we are essentially due for the next one.

Avian (bird) flu
Although the Avian flu has killed millions of birds in Asia, as well as other animals, it has not spread in great numbers to human beings.

That being said, if a person with influenza simultaneously became infected with bird flu, a mingling between the two viruses could trigger human spreading and ultimately, lead to a pandemic.

The World Health Organization has therefore spearheaded production of a vaccine for H5N1 (the influenza A viruses identified in humans in Asia in 2004 and 2005) as a precaution to work against a possible bird flu pandemic.

Handling a pandemic
There is no way to prevent a pandemic. It is also difficult to accurately predict when it will arrive.

Nevertheless, steps are being taken to both minimize the impact and lessen the numbers of people who would die from it. Governments around the world have plans to prepare for the possibility of a new pandemic.

The two primary forms of action would be vaccines and antiviral medications.

Vaccines

Canada has contracted companies to work on H5N1 vaccine development.

But the reality is that a useful vaccine for a pandemic cannot be manufactured until the virus has emerged.

The virus would have to be analyzed and it would take time to create a vaccine applicable to the new virus strain.

Antiviral medications

Reports indicate Canada has plans to create a national antiviral stockpile, including about 16 million pills of Tamiflu® (oseltamivir), although this would treat only 1.6 million people.

The pills would need to be rationed, with priority given to such groups as health care and emergency workers, along with people hospitalized for the flu.

What can you do?
The best way to protect against influenza in general is:

Get the flu shot.
Wash your hands with soap regularly.
Avoid going to work or school when you're sick.
Cover your nose and mouth when sneezing or coughing.

http://bodyandhealth.canada.com/channel_section_details.asp?text_id=3112&channel_id=1020&relation_id=10882
    Preparing for a Pandemic
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 29 2008 at 9:21pm
This is so stupid - nothing about preps and staying home - nothing about the fact that Tamiflu is useless and nothing about corpses on the porches waiting to be collected and taken to the disused mines and quarrys
    
    
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 4=laro Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 29 2008 at 10:33pm
what makes you think they will be on the porches.  Maybe at first they will be stacked on the street, but soon the stackers will need to be stacked.  If you knew your neighbor's family was all in their house and dead, would you go move them out?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 02 2008 at 11:03pm
in 1918 the people died so fast that their relatives dragged the corpses out onto the front porches for disposal and trucks went up and down streets collecting corpses and police went sniffing around quiet houses to detect rotting corpses to be disposed of.

the 1918 flu had a death rate of 3% - the population in the US in 1918 was 80 million and 20 million americans got the flu and 750,000 died of the flu.

3% in 1918 compared to 80% of the H5N1 so you can bet when this thing breaks there will be corpses everywhere and if they are not disposed of quickly there will be more health problems as well as the flu

And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote PrepGirl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2008 at 2:44pm
Ok lets get this right. Bodies are going to be stored in Hockey rinks, cold storage faciltys, refrigeration trucks. So dont say there going to be piled up in the streets and porches. This is the twenty first century.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote reality check Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2008 at 3:15pm
Originally posted by PrepGirl PrepGirl wrote:

Ok lets get this right. Bodies are going to be stored in Hockey rinks, cold storage faciltys, refrigeration trucks. So dont say there going to be piled up in the streets and porches. This is the twenty first century.

     
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote PandemicsHappen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2008 at 4:11pm
Sorry, During a pandemic it will not be the 21st century.

If 50% are affected and 30-50% of that 50% die,
who will keep the electricity flowing,
deliver food, truck in gas, and on and on.

The Government has made it clear,
"Do not expect the government to come to the rescue."

They will have their hands full
maintaining the integrity of the
government. Don't fool yourself,
the government will do everything
to survive.

A pandemic is a threat to national security
and they will respond accordingly.
The best bet is to stay holed up
with 6+ months of preps and avoid
the infected citizens and the panic in the streets.

Prep-on and keep your cool.

    
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote johngardner1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2008 at 4:29pm
    I'm hoping that some people here will be able to warn the rest of us if pandemic occurs.

I just met a man with MRSA. He cut his chin on a skateboarding accident, he has a sore by it and now one on his thumb. He petted my dog too, used a bit of lysol. I offered to call the hospital and told staff in the office of the building but they didn't do anything.
I am not a prophet
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2008 at 7:43pm
johngardner1, none of know eachother on AFT but I am also hoping that we will warn eachother if the pandemic begins.

Information is our friend.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote PrepGirl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2008 at 7:58pm
Pandemicshappen
What I stated about the hockey rinks, cold storage facilitys and freezer trucks is exactly what they got on the plans for the bodies. I know cause I know someone who had been briefed on it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fpmagnolia Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2008 at 5:45am
Posted by Prepgirl:
What I stated about the hockey rinks, cold storage facilitys and freezer trucks is exactly what they got on the plans for the bodies. I know cause I know someone who had been briefed on it.
---------------------------------------------------------

I think what kilt and Pandemicshappen is trying to say is, when all services break down, which they will, there is only so many bodies that can be disposed of properly. There just won't be any help coming to us when things really get bad. Maybe in the beginning there will be ice rinks and etc. but, they can only hold so many bodies. Sooner or later no one will be able or willing to help. Electricity, gas and diesel fuel will be little or none available. We will be on our own.
    
    
    
LIONS AND TIGERS AND BIRDS. OH MY!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2008 at 1:50pm
It doesn't take much to overwhelm the morgues. In San Diego when they found the 39 suicide victims of the Heaven's Gate cult, the coroner's office was forced to improvise to store the bodies. Imagine ten times that and more. It would be a nightmare. I've seen many lists of recommended preps that have included body bags because the authorities will simply not be able to cope. Pandemicshappen is right - it won't be the 21st century during a major pandemic. We'll be on our own - the federal government has alluded to that many times.
    
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote PandemicsHappen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2008 at 3:26pm
Thanks for making my point fpmagnolia,

If H5N1 mutates to have the ability to
easily infect humans and then be able
to pass easily from human to human,
there will be a predictable chain of events.

1. Denial - many people will refuse to
believe it can happen and refuse to think
outside their comfort zone. They will be
a burden by getting sick early and infecting others.
Unfortunatly, we depend on these people to
be at work, and they won't be available.

2. Shock, paralysis, panic - Some will be so
scared they will do nothing to protect
themself or do inappropriate things due
to mis-information, shock and panic.
They will also be a burden by under-reacting
or over-reacting.

3. If 50% of the population is affected to
some degree and half of the affected die
due to severe flu symptoms or secondary
illnesses, there will be huge numbers of
people unavailable to work. The power
grid will fail early, food and supply
shortages will be evident in a few days.

Once "Joe and Jane Q. Public" and their
kids miss a few meals it will sink in that
this is real.

Then the drama will begin.

I for one don't want to see that episode.

Solution: No plan is perfect.
Best case would be to have enough preps
for 6+ months and be able to stay holed
up long enough to avoid being infected
or getting caught up in the chaos in the streets.


    
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote PrepGirl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2008 at 6:27pm
Ok I see what you mean about the bodies. My misunderstanding. I thought he meant that right off the bat there be bodies piling up in the streets and porches.
I do know that yes the structure will break down and it won't be the 21 century after that.
Then it will be survial time.
Sorrry Prepgirl for the misunderstanding.
Pandemichappen very well said i might add !!!
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You are very welcome Pandemicshappen.
LIONS AND TIGERS AND BIRDS. OH MY!!!!
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and just how do the bodies get from the homes to the ice rinks?

they get picked up by trucks going up and down the streets looking for corpses

in 1918 the bodies came so fast they had trouble getting rid of them and yet the H1N1 virus had a death rate of 3% of those infected - this one has 80% plus

the fact that its the 21st century makes it worse as in 1918 it swept the world by steam ship - now we have air travel

in 1918 people could take care of themselves now people cant - they no longer grow their own food or eggs or meat and are totally dependant on the commercial food system which is easily broken down by a pandemic

people will die of the disease but more people will die of starvation if they dont prep - then there are the law and order issues - in 1918 people were law abiding - now they loot and kill - just look at Katrina

and what happens when there is no electricity to keep the ice rinks cold?
    
    
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PrepGirl,when and if the bodies start to stack up,they will burn them not store them. Johnray1
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ro2935 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2008 at 4:59am
Originally posted by Johnray1 Johnray1 wrote:

PrepGirl,when and if the bodies start to stack up,they will burn them not store them. Johnray1


Or removed from the home and straight into mass graves, no coffins just body bags if they are fortunate. The crematorians would be overwhelmed even working 24hours a day wouldn't make a dint into the back log of dead bodies to be disposed of. Also people would be discouraged from attending funerals [mass gatherings spreading the disease faster].
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disused mines and quarries and dump trucks
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote PandemicsHappen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2008 at 3:35pm
Care for the Deceased during a Pandemic - FAQs

http://www.health.state.mn.us/divs/idepc/diseases/flu/pandemic/plan/faqdead.html
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What if say you piled bodies up on a stack of wood and started it burning, could you keep the fire going by adding more and more bodies to the flame?  or would you have to add a different fuel?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2008 at 10:41pm
make sure you mix in plenty of fat women and kids - they burn well
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Originally posted by PrepGirl PrepGirl wrote:

Ok lets get this right. Bodies are going to be stored in Hockey rinks, cold storage faciltys, refrigeration trucks. So dont say there going to be piled up in the streets and porches. This is the twenty first century.


Just some reminders here. As in - no power - no fuel.

So, how exactly are we going to deal with this.  The last time I checked on real plans we were talking toe tags and body tags and mass graves to be exhumed later for proper burial. I posted an article from the American Funeral Directors talking about all instances and how the system would be overloaded rather quickly.

So many keep visualizing the Pandemic will be  taking place in the situation you are in now. For two years I have been posting on reality in terms of research and plan versus inconsistencies.

No power, no fuel, no storage. BITS. Now, one comforting aspect may be that most of the very sick will crawl into their prospective houses and streets and die leaving the streets fairly clear.  This is not like a cardiac arrest where they will grab their chests and drop, while some did in Nepal not long ago, but that was on the way to ER when they never arrived.

It needs to be emphasized above all to prepare for THE WORST. If it doesn't happen, great. You will have all those nice ice rinks. Pray it is in winter. Yes people will freeze, and maybe infection will spread more quickly but in the northern states body decay, like in Alaska, won't be a big issue.

I truly need to get out my "Black Rabbit" stuff - eventually where we have high CFR, and all those comfy little 2% CFR things which so often fill plans which MUST work, don't cut it.

So, hopefully not. But toe tags, pits, quick lime, and not fun scenes may be a reality in a 30% Pandemic CFR. Look at the CFRs we have now. In Indonesia is it is getting so bad they are start to quote Survival rate numbers like 13% instead of death rates. That is pretty sad.

And at that point I would tell you, if you were still alive.. this was the 21st century - now it is much more like the 11th.

Just for the sake of discussion. A new maybe expression.. reality has teeth- it bites, it bleeds. Point. We need desperate solutions for desperate situations. Because it may be that way.

Medclinician
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I was at a Regional Bio-Terrorism Conference yesterday and one of the speakers was the Medical Examiner for 2 large counties in my state. He insisted that ALL bodies will be autopsied and there will be NO cremations. All bodies will be photographed, x-rayed, finger printed and DNA sampled. Also he stated that if need be they would call in refridgerated tractor/trailers from other states to preserve the bodies as needed.

My 1st,2nd & 3rd opinions upon hearing this was/is bull crap, bull crap & bull crap. I don't know if he was just preaching the prepared agenda, or if he was really ignorant to the fact. I had a senior member of my department sitting next to me and told him we're going to use the city pool and a bunch of quick lime....it's already located at a memorial park....what better place than that?
    
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Originally posted by PrepGirl PrepGirl wrote:

Ok I see what you mean about the bodies. My misunderstanding. I thought he meant that right off the bat there be bodies piling up in the streets and porches.
I do know that yes the structure will break down and it won't be the 21 century after that.
Then it will be survial time.
Sorrry Prepgirl for the misunderstanding.
Pandemichappen very well said i might add !!!


I missed this post Prep Girl, so I owe you clarify on my 11st century reference. You already know it.

Posted a pretty dismal situation for us locally here, with a sick household, some really well - we are spending today trying to verify some stuff told us last night about the flu situation here.

Note to Albert - I sent you data about a communication thing and it may be time to talk about IRL. I am keeping this off the site but see if you can scan through your mail and respond.

MC
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fpmagnolia Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2008 at 6:54am
   Posted earlier by kilt2:
make sure you mix in plenty of fat women and kids - they burn well
---------------------------------------------------------

I hope you are kidding but, even if you are, I find what you said very offensive. I am a mother and grandmother and I don't find your comments humorous. Albert, please don't allow these kind of postings. There is nothing funny about what we may be facing.
LIONS AND TIGERS AND BIRDS. OH MY!!!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote PandemicsHappen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2008 at 7:47am
Med,
The plans you are referring to must have been for a small isolated incident ie, toe tags, body bags and exhumed later for proper burial.
This is not possible with CFRs of 30-50% even in a single mid-size city.

The state of technology will probably be that of 1908.

In the event of pandemic, multiply prices by 10 and subtract a century.




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Another subject discussed at the conference was ACC's (Alternative, Acute or Alternate Care Centers-currently your choice), and Geriatrics. Flat out no oxygen, limited medications, no cardiac monitors, no lab. equipment, no x-ray and no ventilators. Some I.V.'s and pain meds only, translation: palative care only, translation: end of life/comfort care. Does anyone need a further translation? This is where they send you to die.
    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote reality check Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 07 2008 at 6:15pm
Originally posted by fpmagnolia fpmagnolia wrote:

    Posted earlier by kilt2:
make sure you mix in plenty of fat women and kids - they burn well
---------------------------------------------------------

I hope you are kidding but, even if you are, I find what you said very offensive. I am a mother and grandmother and I don't find your comments humorous. Albert, please don't allow these kind of postings. There is nothing funny about what we may be facing.

H
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Putting diseased, rotting bodies in quarries and mines may pollute area well water making the water unsafe to drink.

As to the refrigerated truck idea? There are just not enough of them. They will be needed to transport and store food and medicines. Refer to articles on the shortage of refrigerated trucks during the Katrina aftermath. Katrina hit only a relatively small section of the country; a pandemic would be worldwide.

Mass graves have been traditionally used for mass deaths because it works. Having bodies in storage, more piling up and less and less staff to deal with the issue is not going to be good. If a pandemic with high fatalities happens this issue is going to have to be dealt with quickly and effectively to prevent additional potentially dangerous health issues.




    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TERMS 1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 08 2008 at 7:13am
Country Mom- I agree whole heartedly. I went to my States Homeland Security Conference last year and they had a session on how to deal with mass fatalities. Every thing from the traditional hole in the ground to putting them on barges and sinking them out to sea. I spent time with a bunch of Public Health Nurses in a class down south late last year and the idea of placing bodies at the curb for pick-up or mass graves totally horrified them. I'm just trying to be realistic here and without creamatoriums, (or city trash incinerators) running full blast they are going to pile up fast.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 08 2008 at 8:13pm
Placing corpses on porches for collection by trucks going up and down the streets was what happened in October and November 1918 in America when 750,000 people died - just 3% of the 20 million that were infected by the flu.

The H5N1 kills 80% not 3% so there will be plenty of corpses laying around for collection.

Disused Mines and Quarries will be used for dumping as long as they are deep and can be back filled - they are used as rubbish dumps today and will be used for corpses.

Mass cremations have been used in the past because rotting corpses are a health problem in themselves.

Railway sleepers alternated with corpses work well stacked high and then some diesel fuel to get the wood going. Fat people burn well with body fat to burn lean people in the right mix.

This was done in WWII by Nazis disposing of concentration camp victims as well as Yellow fever epidemic victims in the US.

We are about to enter a period of unreal horror and do not dismiss any idea as too dreadful. Health issues rely on the rapid disposal of corpses and rapid means mechanised and brutal.
    
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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to FPMagnola
 
Are you doing any long term storage? It seems we are on nearly the same page but I have posted on "other topics" as I see a real need here as wellEmbarrassed
Is anybody out there
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Legacy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 03 2010 at 2:38pm
Originally posted by Kilt2 Kilt2 wrote:

make sure you mix in plenty of fat women and kids - they burn well
 
Nice.....Confused
I do everything my Rice Crispies tell me to....
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Having been in a political position I can tell you that most local governments will be using a tag system to the body and then mass graves. Many local governments already have areas designated for this process. I bet the tagging will stop if things get bad.

I already have plots and just hope if we would need to use them there will be someone to bury me...hate the thought of mass graves.

Hey, Legacy I am one of those fat women....ugh!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2010 at 9:27am
   
 
Is this thread from....29 February 2008?
 
 
 
 
 
 
H5N1 broke out in Turkey...  That flu is so lethal... it can't go far before burning itself
 
out.  They were able to contain it, as with SARS.     China made a move to get the
 
W.H.O. to accept that Natural Remedies are beneficial...   China is more interedsted in
 
a cure than it is in Patenting everything in sight as with US Pharma... we know their
 
record.   China focuses on - antiviral agents , having their best effect at the earliest
 
sign of infection ... Note their willingness to share.
 
 
Interesting Info. from-
 
 
 
 
 

CHINESE HERBS AND INFLUENZA

Unlike the vaccines, which are made in response to flu strains as they appear, Chinese herb therapies for influenza are not specific for the viral strain. Instead, they may provide general actions, such as to help boost the immune response so that it is able to eliminate the virus faster. At high enough dosage the herbs may have some direct inhibitory effects on viral reproduction; they may also ameliorate some of the symptoms, thus making a serious infection seem mild.

Instead of having a single herb or a single formulation as the response to flu, there are a collection of herbs and formulas that have developed a good reputation. During the period from the 1950s to the 1970s, several large scale studies were undertaken in China to evaluate the use of traditional herb formulas and newer herbal remedies to prevent and treat influenza, with favorable results reported for several compounds. These findings appeared in medical journals and in books summarizing progress in Chinese herb research. The information has been gathered at ITM, while many of those original publications are no longer available due to limited print runs. While there is insufficient proof from these studies that Chinese herbal therapies can cure or impede influenza because of problems in methodology and reporting, practitioners of Chinese medicine and their patients are convinced of the efficacy of this approach.

Routine prescription of Chinese herbs for influenza or other therapeutic applications remains limited primarily to the countries where herbal medicine is officially recognized, such as China, Japan, and Korea. In other countries, the herbs have been made available mainly through the work of licensed acupuncturists, naturopaths, and other non-M.D. practitioners, as well as through direct marketing of products to consumers.

The non-toxic herbs found useful in these studies have been incorporated into formulations that ITM has produced for practitioners to use. Several of the formulations, such as Ilex 15, have been available for more than 15 years, so that there is some experience gained through several influenza seasons.

Practitioners of Chinese medicine in the U.S., Canada, and Europe will be called upon to provide natural therapies for influenza this year as before, with a potential for higher demand and with more concern about prevention strategies. Even though such therapies are not proven to be effective, many people will feel the need to do everything that seems reasonably possible. Thus, it is worthwhile to review the therapeutic approach described by the Chinese and to offer some of the readily available remedies (ITM formulary items will be described here; others are easily obtained).

A REGIMEN FOR SEVERE INFLUENZA

Chinese herb therapy, applied to address the first signs of influenza, might prevent the infection from developing into the full symptomatic disease. For persons who are highly susceptible to influenza and those who tend to experience severe symptoms, as well as during influenza seasons that are defined as being highly virulent or dangerous, it may be prudent to treat even the initial symptoms as though a severe disease was about to develop. These herbal remedies would be used in persons who are developing symptoms despite having been vaccinated (since there is the possibility of vaccine failure, especially later in the season when new strains might dominate) and could also be used along with drugs such as Tamiflu, which are not completely efficacious on their own.

To review key herbs that are used in these treatments, please see these articles:

Forsythia and Lonicera (antiviral herbs)

Shuanghuanglian (this article focuses on three antiviral herbs; the two herbs in the article above, plus scute)

Schizonepeta and Mentha (these herbs are used to alleviate symptoms)

Yin Qiao San (this article describes a common anti-influenza formula used in China; it includes forsythia, lonicera, schizonepeta, and mentha).

The Jade Screen (article about a formula for preventing infections and aiding recovery afterward)

A protocol using ITM formulations (which are prescribed by health professionals and are not sold in stores) could be designed in this manner (these dosages are for adults):

  • Ilex 15: 5-6 tablets each time, three times daily
  • Myrolea-B: 1 tablet each time, three times daily
  • Calmagnium: 1 tablet each time, three times daily
  • Quercenol: 1 tablet each time, three times daily

Ilex 15 (Seven Forests) is a complex formulation of Chinese herbs that are used to treat upper respiratory system infections. The pattern of herb combining follows principles used in producing two popular patent remedies from China: Yin Qiao Jie Du Pian and Gan Mao Ling. This formula has been used for 15 years. It is suitable for use by itself in the early stage of common influenza and other upper respiratory viral infections. ITM also provides a modification of the original Yin Qiao Jie Du Pian (Pine Mountain), which has been modified with herbs indicated as effective for influenza by ongoing research in China. In addition, there is a potent broad-spectrum antiviral combination called Isatis 6 that may be used alternatively or along with Ilex 15.

Myrolea-B (White Tiger) is a simple formulation of highly concentrated extracts from four Chinese herbs and one Western herb. The Chinese herbs include forsythia and lonicera, two of the key ingredients of Ilex 15 (and the main antiviral ingredients of Yin Qiao Jie Du Pian), thus boosting the dosage of these essential ingredients. Myrolea-B also contains the antiviral agents scute (huangqin) and terminalia (hezi). The Western herb in this formulation is olive leaf, which is one of the primary anti-viral herbs derived from the European tradition.

Calmagnium (White Tiger) is a comprehensive mineral and vitamin supplement (not a Chinese formula). The concept behind its use is that by providing optimal or even high levels of certain nutrients, the immune system has a stronger effect against pathogens. For example, it is considered possible that vitamin C, zinc, and selenium contribute to antiviral activity. The point of providing a broad nutritional supplementation, rather than just focusing on a few of the established ingredients, is to assure a more balanced effect. In China and Japan, it is increasingly common to prescribe nutritional supplements, similar to this, along with herb remedies.

Quercenol (White Tiger) is an antioxidant mixture. It has recently been reported that influenza causes oxidative stress that adversely affects the lungs, perhaps increasing symptoms and susceptibility to secondary lung infections. There is a decline in vitamin E levels. Quercetin, the main ingredient in Quercenol, has been shown to increase pulmonary concentrations of the antioxidants catalase, reduced glutathione, and superoxide dismutase. By taking Quercenol, the vitamin C intake from Calmagnium is increased (total of 1162 mg per day with the above suggested dosing) as is the vitamin E intake (total of 337 IU per day with above dosing). In addition, zinc supplementation is often recommended for to boost immune responses; the use of Quercenol with Calmagnium at the suggested dosing provides 25 mg of zinc. Selenium from Calmagnium alone at the dose of 1 tablet three times daily is 75 mcg, but adding Quercenol brings it to 175 mcg.

The antiviral agents are expected to have their best effect at the earliest sign of infection and for the phase of the disease where the amount of virus is exponentially growing, perhaps the first two to three days of symptoms. After that, the virus comes under some degree of control, even though symptoms can persist. However, additional symptoms can be generated if a bacterial infection arises; typically, a bronchial infection develops, and it may persist for several days or weeks if not successfully treated (if herbal therapy is not successful, antibiotics should be used in cases of bacterial infections). After the initial viral development phase, one may focus more on symptomatic relief, for example, deleting Ilex 15 in the regimen above and replacing it with another formula; aimed at relief of symptoms, such as for nasal congestion, sore throat, or bronchial infection with cough. Examples of those therapies include these Seven Forests formulas:

Belamcanda 15: suited for respiratory bacterial infection that accompanies or follows influenza

Chyrsanthemum 9: for headache, fever, sinus congestion accompanying influenza

Gardenia 7: for sore throat

Lily 14: for dry, irritated throat and dry cough

PREVENTION STRATEGIES

For those who are concerned about high susceptibility to influenza (due to past experience of frequent infection by viruses or a high level of exposure to crowds), immune enhancing formulas, such as Jade Screen Tablets or Astragalus 10+, may be taken during the flu season (e.g., for up to about 16 weeks) in an effort to avoid developing a symptomatic infection after exposure. Jade Screen Formula (with astragalus as a major constituent) and its variants are the most widely studied prescriptions for prevention of upper respiratory tract infections. ITM's version of the formula includes additional herbs benefiting the lungs: the anti-infection herb houttuynia, the yin nourishing glehnia, and the congestion-alleviating centipeda (an herb, not to be confused with the insect centipede). Astragalus 10+ is especially suitable for persons of middle age or older, as it also contains tonics for the kidney/liver as part of the therapeutic approach to immune enhancement. Greater immune enhancing effects may be attained by including, along with one of these tonifying formulas, a high dose of either astragalus (using Astragalus Extract Tablets) or cordyceps (using Cordyceps Tablets); these herbs also strengthen the lungs. ITM has received reports that some patients successfully use Ilex 15 as a preventive; this formula may function in this role by helping inhibit the virus as soon as exposure occurs, perhaps being effective at dosages lower than those described for treatment of the disease once symptoms appear.

It is important to note that high doses of the tonic formulas with astragalus may not be effective when the infection begins producing symptoms. The flu symptoms include the adverse impact of a high immune response, and attempts to elevate that immune response will not only fail to have a substantial extra impact on the virus but may contribute to the severity of the symptoms. Thus, one should be careful about attempting to apply this approach. Generally, the immune based therapies are applied either during a preventive health care phase of treatment or during a recovery phase when the dominant symptoms are reducing rather than at the time when the symptoms of an infection are first noted.

Some of the suggested ITM formulations are relatively new, including Myrolea-B, Yin Qiao Jie Du Pian, Chrysanthemum 9, Astragalus Extract Tablets, Cordyceps Tablets, and Gardenia 7. All of these, and the other formulations mentioned here, are included in the book A Bag of Pearls (2004). Additional suggestions for treatment of influenza or its symptoms may be gleaned from the pages describing the formulas and in the index of formula indications.

PLEASE NOTE: The side-by-side presentation of the following formulas
is not intended to suggest any particular pairings, it is for presentation only.

Standard Anti-Influenza Formulations
Ilex 15
maodongqing Ilex 14%
jinyinhua Lonicera 9%
lianqiao Forsythia 7%
banlangen Isatis root 7%
bohe Mentha.. 7%
juhua Chrysanthemum 7%
zhushagen Ardisia root 7%
jiegeng Platycodon 7%
lugen Phragmites 6%
jingjie Schizonepeta 6%
fangfeng Siler 5%
qianghuo Chiang-huo 5%
ganjiang Ginger 5%
wuzhuyu Evodia 4%
gancao Licorice 4%
Yin Qiao Jie Du Pian
jinyinhua Lonicera 12%
lianqiao Forsythia 12%
niubangzi Arctium 12%
banlangen Isatis root 10%
chuanxinlian Andrographis (e) 10%
jiegeng Platycodon 10%
dandouchi Soja 10%
danzhuye Lophatherum 8%
bohe* Mentha 8%
jingjie Schizonepeta (e) 8%
* a high menthol content extract is used

Supplemental Influenza Formulations:
may be added to the above or used instead
Myrolea-B
jinyinhua Lonicera 25%
lianqiao Forsythia 25%
  Olive leaf 25%
huangqin Scute 20%
hezi Terminalia 10%
Isatis 6
daqingye Isatis 25%
huzhang Hu-chang 15%
xiakucao Prunella 15%
baihuasheshecao Oldenlandia 15%
chuanxinlian Andrographis 15%
jinyinhua Lonicera 15%

Nutritional and Antioxidant Therapy:
key elements are quercetin, vitamins C and E, and zinc.

Calmagnium

Four tablets provide:
(percentage of U.S. RDA in parentheses)
Minerals:
(55) Calcium 550 mg
(100) Magnesium 400 mg
(67) Zinc 10 mg
(100) Manganese 2 mg
(75) Copper 1.5 mg
  Boron 1 mg
(167) Chromium 200 mcg
(143) Selenium 100 mcg
(67) Molybdenum 50 mcg
Vitamins:
(100) Vitamin A 5,000 IU
  β-carotene 10,000 IU
(1333) Vitamin B1 20 mg
(1176) Vitamin B2 20 mg
(210) Vitamin B3 40 mg
(400) Vitamin B5 40 mg
(2000) Vitamin B6 40 mg
(3333) Vitamin B12 200 mcg
(200) Folic acid 800 mcg
(333) Biotin 1 mg
(833) Vitamin C 500 mg
(75) Vitamin D3 300 IU
(167) Vitamin E 50 IU
(125) Vitamin K1 100 mcg
Quercenol
Two tablets provide:
percentage of U.S. RDA in parentheses
Flavonoids:
  Quercetin 400 mg
  Silybum marianum (e) 250 mg
  Proanthocyanadins 125 mg
  Green tea polyphenols 150 mg
Vitamins:
  Mixed carotenoids 30 mg
(1000) Vitamin E 300 IU
(830) Vitamin C 500 mg
Minerals:
(67) Zinc 10 mg
(143) Selenium 100 mcg

Formulas for Prevention via Immune Enhancement;
also for recovery phase
Jade Screen Tablets
huangqi Astragalus 25%
fangfeng Siler 18%
baizhu Atractylodes 15%
ebushicao Centipeda 12%
yuxingcao Houttuynia (e) 12%
beishashen Glehnia 12%
gancao Licorice 6%
Astragalus 10+
huangqi Astragalus (e) 12%
ciwujia Eleuthero (e) 12%
lingzhi Ganoderma (e) 10%
maimendong Ophiopogon 10%
nüzhenzi Ligustrum 10%
heshouwu Ho-shou-wu 8%
roucongrong Cistanche 7%
baizhu Atractylodes 7%
gancao Licorice 6%
renshen Ginseng 6%
wuweizi Schizandra 6%
sangshen Morus fruit 6%

Immune Boosters; may be added to the formulas above
Astragalus Extract Tablets
huangqi Astragalus 75%
danshen Codonopsis 25%
Cordyceps Tablets
chongcao Cordyceps 34%
wujiashen Eleuthero 33%
hongjingtian Rhodiola 33%

 


Formulas for Secondary Effects:
Lung congestion and infection; headache and sinus congestion
Belamcanda 15
shegan Belamcanda 8%
yuxingcao Houttuynia 8%
shishangbo Selanginella 8%
lugen Phragmites 7%
xingren Apricot seed 7%
sangye Morus leaf 7%
zhuli Bamboo sap 7%
jiegeng Platycodon 7%
baibu Stemona 7%
maimendong Ophiopogon 6%
zhebeimu Fritillaria 6%
niubangzi Arctium 6%
baiqian Cynanchum 6%
ganjiang Ginger 5%
gancao Licorice 5%
Chrysanthemum 9
yejuhua Chrysanthemum 16%
manjingzi Vitex 12%
gegen Pueraria (e) 12%
chouwutong Clerodendron (e) 10%
sangye Morus leaf 10%
chuanxiong Cnidium 10%
niuxi Achyranthes 10%
tianma Gastrodia (m)* 10%
baijili Tribulus 10%
* gastrodia mushroom, Armillaria mellea, is used as a replacement for gastrodia

Formulas for Sore Throat and for Dry Throat and Dry Cough
Gardenia 7
zhizi Gardenia 30%
jiegeng Platycodon 15%
gancao Licorice 15%
hezi Terminallia 10%
bohe Mentha 10%
shengdi Rehmannia 10%
niubangzi Arctium 10%
Lily 14
baihe Lily 12%
muhudie Oroxylum 9%
maimendong Ophiopogon 9%
yuzhu Yu-chu 8%
dihuang Rehmannia 8%
mingdangshen Changium 7%
pangdahai Sterculia 6%
nanshashen Adenophora 6%
beishashen Glehnia 6%
xuanshen Scrophularia 6%
niubangzi Arctium 6%
jiegeng Platycodon 6%
zhebeimu Fritillaria 6%
gancao Licorice 5%

 

IMPORTANT REMINDER: There is no clinical evidence that the specific formulas mentioned above provide any protection from or effective treatment for influenza (or related disorders). The information about these formulas is given here to illustrate the types of ingredients that practitioners of Chinese herbalism (such practitioners are usually licensed acupuncturists) might give to their patients, including the dosage, the timing in relation to beginning of influenza symptoms, and the duration of use (a nutritional supplement comprised of vitamins and minerals is also mentioned). Such practitioners might recommend these specific formulas or many others that have a similar design. Several articles are referenced in the above description as a resource to learn more about certain of the ingredients and about related formulas described in the Chinese herbal literature

 
 
 
. .................
 
 
 Mary008
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 04 2010 at 11:48am
.
 
 
 
Earlier on with H5N1....

"If the mutation occurs that permits relatively
 
easy human-to-human infection,

the virus may be less lethal than it is now,
 
but would still be a formidable agent of disease."
.........
 
 
 
as with the Swine flu... very highly infective.  The high infectivity of the virus

allows it to infect more hosts...  The highly virulent kills off many hosts so as
 
to render this virulent type virus ... less virulent as it spreads.

 
 
 
The only way to get a 1918 flu ...is
.................................................................
 

to recreate the crowded tenements and no garbage pick up,

troop trains/fox holes and high incidence of childhood diseases, poor

nutrition,  Horses pooping in the streets, poor medical care,
 
widespread use of Aspirin.

That would not be easy to recreate these days...except in the
 
poorest countries.  Even so they have vaccines now for childhood disease
 
and not a lot of horses... and knowledge now on Reyes Syndrome.
 
 

 
Factors Affecting the 1918 Influenza Pandemic: Changing Lifestyle ...Common treatment
 
for influenza in 1918 included aspirin at 1300mg combined ... been the result of what is
 
now known as Reyes syndrome rather than the flu. ...
 
diseases-viruses.suite101.com/.../1918_influenza_pandemic - Cached - Similar
 
 
 
 
 
Occasionally, an inflammation of the muscles ("myositis") will develop several

days after the flu. This is especially seen in the calves, and can last 3 to 4

days. Reyes syndrome, a devastating disease of the liver and brain, has been

associated with the use of aspirin and influenza; acetaminophen or ibuprofen

should be used instead.
 
 
 
 
Americans feared the Germans had put "flu bacteria" in Bayer aspirin or had ...
 
Reyes syndrome is a rare and potentially fatal disorder linked to taking ...
 
 
m.randomhistory.com/2009/07/19_flu.html
 
 
 
 
 
VIDEO on Reyes Syndrome
..................................................
 
 
 
 
..................
 
 
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Originally posted by PrepGirl PrepGirl wrote:

Ok lets get this right. Bodies are going to be stored in Hockey rinks, cold storage faciltys, refrigeration trucks. So dont say there going to be piled up in the streets and porches. This is the twenty first century.


And how do you suppose they get there? magic carpet?

The people die in their homes, the corpses are dragged to the curbs, trucks go up and down picking the corpses up and taking them away for disposal.

All that happened in the USA in 1918.

Wake up and smell the coffee
And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Originally posted by Legacy Legacy wrote:

Originally posted by Kilt2 Kilt2 wrote:

make sure you mix in plenty of fat women and kids - they burn well
 
Nice.....Confused


In the material I have read about - from the Second World War and from previous epidemics, they found that men alone are too lean to burn well - women and children have fat more than men and they helped the burning process.

In the case of a H5N1 pandemic - we will see unspeakable horror - so get used to the idea because only the strong will survive - physically and mentally.


And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Originally posted by fpmagnolia fpmagnolia wrote:

   Posted earlier by kilt2:
make sure you mix in plenty of fat women and kids - they burn well
---------------------------------------------------------

I hope you are kidding but, even if you are, I find what you said very offensive. I am a mother and grandmother and I don't find your comments humorous. Albert, please don't allow these kind of postings. There is nothing funny about what we may be facing.


yeah well harden up princess

I am deadly serious

if you have a better way or superior knowledge on the mass cremation of diseased corpses please share with the group.

i have shared what I have read about from horrors in the past - that happened and ordinary people were faced with dreadful things to see and to do.

Stalingrad for example - where over 1 million men died fighting - they bulldozed the corpses into windrows and set them on fire with fuel.


And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 05 2010 at 7:05am
The likelihood of that scenario is quite remote.  and Kilt...there are other sites where people welcome extreme talk...  or even this site has an area for Bird flu info of all types if you would like to put it there...this area is for latest news.   Perhaps this thread should be moved?
 
All types of bird flu topics here ...
 
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.
 
 
With newer technology...preparing for a pandemic isn't what it used to be... that is
 
what W.H.O. discovered this time around.  Most of the ill people tested shown on the state
 
charts did not have the Flu....  The biggest problems now are with mycobacterium and
 
RSV... They are working on vaccine.
 
 
Respiratory Research | Full text | An epidemiological study of ...
by L Stensballe - 2002 - Cited by 5 - Related articles
RSV is the largest single cause of childhood hospitalization and is therefore a ....
 
Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems [46]. ..... response to
 
Mycobacterium bovis bacillus Calmette-Guerin vaccination. ...
respiratory-research.com/content/3/S1/S34
 
 
 
 
 
Mycoplasma Pneumonia
Search for Mycoplasma Pneumonia Find Mycoplasma pneumonia   www.Ask.com
PCR Mycoplasma Test Kit
Detect the presence of Mycoplasma Ready to use, optimized PCR mix  
 
 
 
Mycoplasma bronchitis
Research causes, symptoms, and treatments for bronchitis.  

 
 
 
 
 
..................
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Suzi2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2010 at 9:05am
SARS was contained, barely and with much effort and economic loss because a person is not contagious with SARS until after the first sign of fever. That's the only reason it was contained. People blow off SARS like it was one of those "health scare scams". SARS was 1918 or worse in potential and the people who worked to contain it are heros. Flu on the other hand is contagious 48 hrs before the first symptoms. It will not burn itself out. Not unless the whole world simultaneously lockes themselves in for about 6 months. That's impossible so all I need to know is what is the CFR?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 06 2010 at 1:34pm

.

It will not burn itself out.

...............................................


please note: the meaning of "burning itself out"...


...Viruses are 'moochers', they need a host to survive and reproduce...

...In 1989, a bird flu virus jumped straight into horses in China, killed 20% of a 
herd, and then ...quickly disappeared. ... (Guo et al.,1992)



http://diss-epsilon.slu.se:8080/archive/00001492/01/07.625_Tryckfil_From_Dimitri.pdf

........

SARS was 1918 or worse

..................................................

not really... what the Scientisits know...

SARS: Just another viral acronym?

...........................................................


L. Broxmeyer


Coronaviruses are ubiquitous, causing illness in many
animals, including pigs, cattle, dogs, cats and chickens
and have been associated with gastroenteritis, upper
respiratory infections and from time to time pneumonia,
in humans. All of this however is neither the exclusive
domain of the coronaviruses nor any other virus.

Mycobacteria,
such as Mycobacterium avium, and Mycobacterium
bovis also inhabit these animals and M. avium
has been associated with upper respiratory infections
and sometimes pneumonia in humans.
Furthermore, mycobacteria such as tuberculosis and
the atypical forms of tuberculosis are just the kind of
pathogens that can lead to the abrupt death witnessed in
Guangdong.

In 1990, a new antibiotic-resistant tuberculosis
outbreak took place in a large Miami municipal
hospital. Soon similar outbreaks broke out in three New
York city hospitals from which it spread to city prisons.
Like the origin of SARS, the infection spread in nosocomial
manner – from patient to patient and from patient
to staff. As in Florida multi-drug-resistant strains made
the New York TB cases almost impossible to treat and
the majority of sufferers died, many within weeks (23).

It is only logical then to investigate whether mycobacteria
such as these Non-Tuberculosis Mycobacteria
(NTMB), Mycobacteria tuberculosis or multi-drug resistant
tuberculosis, are the real pathogens underlying
SARS. Certainly the droplet transmission that seems so
important in the unusually rapid spread of SARS speaks
for an airborne droplet nuclei vector of less than 10 lm
in diameter (4), a must for the successful transmission of
M. tuberculosis. But that is not all.

http://drbroxmeyer.netfirms.com/sars.pdf

..................

Mary008

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