Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
FLU Spread & multiple "Hot Zones" |
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Posted: February 21 2006 at 7:17am |
New flu is likely to spread differently
February 21, 2006 Unlike the 1918 flu that circled the globe with unremitting ferocity, a pandemic strain today probably would emerge as a series of hot zones, possibly straining medical efforts to contain the deadly outbreaks, scientists report today. With bird flu sweeping through more and more flocks in global regions far from the infection's Asian origins, researchers say the potential of the H5N1 virus mutating, which would allow it to spread easily among humans, is increasingly likely. Most recently, the virus has been reported in 11 European countries and in Africa, Iran and India. Since bird flu's reemergence in 2003, there have been more than 160 human cases worldwide, about half of them fatal, from Indonesia to Turkey. Now, in one of the first government-funded computer models of a human pandemic spawned by H5N1, a team of researchers theorizes that infections would initially emerge in influenza hot zones. "You could think of it this way: It would be like a fire throwing out sparks," said Carl Bergstrom, a theoretical biologist at the University of Washington in Seattle. "Multiple sparks could mean fires cropping up in a lot of different places at once. The aim is to successfully contain each of these fires. We think containment is critical," he said. Containment means reaching a pandemic source as early as possible and applying public health tools such as vaccination, antiviral therapy and quarantine. Additional containment activities would include "stepping up the rate of culling or vaccinating poultry and accelerating the production of human vaccines," Bergstrom said. He and colleagues at Harvard's School of Public Health contend that resources to fight the flu might be strained in this country and elsewhere. Because containment is a component of federal and World Health Organization planning for a possible flu pandemic, the new model helps show the possible pitfalls. Bergstrom said containment escaped public health officials in the lethal pandemic season 87 years ago, a reason the infection swept so aggressively, killing 50 million people worldwide and more than 600,000 in the United States. Bergstrom, Christina Mills, James Robins and Marc Lipsitch provide details of their research in a report released today on the online scientific journal PLoS, the Public Library of Science. The new model of pandemic influenza is one of several expected over the next few months from an international research network developing computer-based simulations of a global flu outbreak. The models are designed to help public health workers better understand the spread of contagious diseases and their potential impact on public health In Manhattan, Betsey McCaughey, former lieutenant governor of New York and founder of the nonprofit Committee to Reduce Infection Deaths, said recipes for pandemic flu containment should be incorporated into hospital disaster plans. She argues that a killer flu could prove difficult to fight because some hospitals "lack the discipline and training to control simple bacteria. "The mortality in the United States would depend, at least initially, on how well prepared hospitals are when the first patients come in for treatment. Rigorous plans will have to be in place, otherwise it will rage through hospitals on gloves, hands, equipment and uniforms." http://www.newsday.com/news/health/ny-hsbird214635478feb21,0 ,2577647.story?coll=ny-health-print |
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Bird flu likely to burst out again and again: study
Mon Feb 20, 2006 (excerpt) WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Bird flu is likely to cross over into people again and again if it ever even once acquires the ability to pass from human to human, experts predicted on Monday. In theory, the virus only has to mutate once, in one person, to spark a pandemic. But the researchers argue that this could happen again and again, in several places around the world. They said even if the current pandemic killing birds passes, no one should breathe a sign of relief because the threat to people will not be gone. http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=scienceN ews&storyID=2006-02-21T011732Z_01_N20345128_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIR DFLU-CONTAINMENT.xml Edited by Rick |
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DarlMan
V.I.P. Member Joined: December 26 2005 Status: Offline Points: 140 |
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The problem is that a successful containment of a H2H flu has never been done before.
Currently we are dealing with a virus that travels by bird. We have not been able to contain the virus even when we know birds are spreading it. How many countless number of birds have been culled in order to contain it? Yet it is spreading faster now than ever before. Therefore we know that no human transmitted flu has every been sucessfully contained, we also know that the current version of the BF has spread dispite the WHO's efforts. That leads me to believe that a plan that relies on containment of a H2H strain of BF is beyond overly optimistic. Edited by DarlMan |
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History shows again and again
How nature points out the folly of men |
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Scientists expect bird flu repeats
Tuesday, February 21, 2006 (Excerpt) WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- Bird flu is likely to cross over into people again and again if it ever even once acquires the ability to pass from human to human, experts predicted on Monday. In theory, the virus only has to mutate once, in one person, to spark a pandemic. But the researchers argue that this could happen again and again, in several places around the world. They said even if the current pandemic killing birds passes, no one should breathe a sign of relief because the threat to people will not be gone. http://edition.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/conditions/02/21/birdflu. containment.reut/index.html |
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I believe the act of culling in the third world without adequate precautions, has done nothing put fuel on the fire. If this is correct, we should soon see a rash of human illness in the coming weeks, in areas where culling has taken place. |
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It might also only need a swine cross-over not necessarily human first
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If that happens, it will take place in Uganada shortly, because they are on a migratory route, and there is an outbreak of "Swine Flu" there currently. Authorities were concerned that the farmers were butchering and eating the dying pigs. This gives creedance to the multiple hot-zone, recurring pandemic theory. There are millions of immune comprimised people in Africa. Pigs, Ducks, Pigeons, Swans, Cats/Tigers, it only takes one. Edited by Rick |
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We may see 3 or 4 patient zeros because of multiple "hot zones". Wave One of H2H - invisible tsunami. |
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KatDoe67
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 02 2006 Status: Offline Points: 234 |
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Honestly...I think letting it's run it's course UNCHECKED would bring about the LEAST amount of sickness and starvation and goverment upheaval. Better to just let it do it's thing and be DONE with it! Popping up AGAIN and AGAIN and AGAIN, will be what does the most harm :-( We have JUST enough resources and knowledge to make things worse :-( This will go on for YEARS before people work up enough immunity to it, to stop it from being a contant threat to them and those around them. And in the end the poor will be poorer and the rich will be richer, and the USA's experiment with democracy will take more steps towards it's ultimate failure, because the people will all be screaming to the goverment to take care of them. I'll bet the USA ends out with universal health care as well :-0 All those children with no health insurance! People have been burying their heads in the sand about our uninsured children for a LONG time. Hospitals FULL of kids who can't pay the inflated prices caused by those with insurance. What a mess! Never mind the adults who people feel like they can blame for being irresponsible. They too will be draining resources of our hospitals that are BUSINESSES first, and charities only when they can AFFORD to be :-0 You can't throw them ALL out on the streets to infect the richer people with insurance. Yup...This is going to a BIGGER mess the more we do to try and stop it! I'm NOT saying we shouldn't try! I'm just stating...what I think the end reality will be of interfering with nature :-0 |
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Study: Containment Can't Stop Flu Pandemic
by UPI Wire Feb 21, 2006 BOSTON, Feb. 20, 2006 (UPI) -- Scientists say they've concluded containment might buy time, but is not enough to stop a flu pandemic. Through mathematical modeling, researchers at the Harvard School of Public Health in Boston and Seattle's University of Washington show flu outbreaks are likely to emerge in multiple locations and containment of all outbreaks is improbable. Based on the modeling, the scientists predict containment efforts could likely double the time before a pandemic appears. But they say containment should be just one element of a multi-pronged preparedness strategy. The work is part of a project aimed at developing modeling techniques to understand the spread of infectious diseases, including pandemic flu. The findings appear in PLoS Medicine online. http://www.postchronicle.com/news/health/article_2127642.sht ml |
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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I agree with Katdoe67. encourage governments and citizens to prep as much as they can and when it hits just let it run its course. build immunities. repeat. build more immunities.
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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mightymouse
Valued Member Joined: January 27 2006 Status: Offline Points: 487 |
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Rick quote above: "The mortality in the United States would depend, at least initially, on how KatDoe67 quote above: Honestly...I think letting it's run it's course UNCHECKED would bring about the LEAST amount of sickness and starvation and goverment upheaval. Better to just let it do it's thing and be DONE with it! Due to the ramifications of this whole BF thing I'm afraid I must agree with KatDoe67 and Corn. If fighting it is futile, and a losing proposition - Get prepped - let it run it's course then pick up the pieces. Just like a hurricane. If there's no stopping it - accept it for what it is. If a vaccine gets developed - yea ha! |
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Nothing matters - Therefore everything matters
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I agree with all here give or take a tweek or two. The thought of the swine
cross-over in Uganda or near is worrying, but I have to say so is the UK. A big swine industry and many 'free-range' farms in Yorkshire (East England) and elsewhere. I think Uk has H5 already in swine from previous attacks (I dont understand this H and N thing much) but Uk might be a place where nobody expected it, just like always. Never where you expect! |
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