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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Possible Cluster?

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Elizabeth View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Elizabeth Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Possible Cluster?
    Posted: February 21 2006 at 9:45am
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DarlMan View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DarlMan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2006 at 10:26am

I would not be surprised if tommorrow we see a report that these people were negative for the BF and for the story to just disappear.

There is a large an vocal seqment of the Indian Poultry industry who still deny that BF was responsible for the massive death of poultry.  They still contend it was another virus.

Do not look for much to come out of India in the way of news.  They are going to admit just enough to gain credability when they very quickly announce the end of any BF in India.

Indian Official: Who are you going to believe me or your lying eyes!!

History shows again and again
How nature points out the folly of men
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2006 at 10:29am
I agree with you Dralman, over the weekend they said they had 80 people. Now that number drops and no one questions the figures. 

Edited by siameselade
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mightymouse View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mightymouse Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2006 at 10:51am

I would suspect that the problem is our outsourcing of humanbean counters. 

If the situation were quick, simple, popular, and cheap the numbers would be high.

If the situation is slow, complicated, controversial, and expensive the numbers will be low.

Works every time.  Unless your looking for foreign aid - then the reverse holds true. 

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DarlMan View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DarlMan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2006 at 10:53am

Why would India lie about BF:

 Avian flu: Industry sees the threat passing

....

 The emergence of the dreaded avian influenza (bird flu) among poultry birds in the Nandurbar district of Maharashtra may cause a major set-back to this fastest growing agro-industry but the threat may be only temporary, the industry feels.  

...

 Exporters were expecting good business from Japan as deals were in advance stages of firming up. Japanese companies had already inspected and approved the products of several Indian poultry business houses.

...

 Poultry Federation of India president Shashi Kapur is not too pessimistic about the impact of bird flu on poultry business as he expects the disease to be controlled and contained in its present habitat itself.

...

India's poultry industry has been growing at annual rates varying from eight to 15 per cent in the past few decades, making the country the world's fourth largest producer of eggs and fifth that of chicken broilers. With a turnover of nearly Rs 30,000 crore, this sector provides employment to over 5 million people.

Though the poultry sector accounts only for about one per cent of the country's total gross domestic product, its share in the livestock sector GDP is reckoned at over 10 per cent and is growing fast.

...

Full Story

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Deej View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Deej Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2006 at 11:03am
wow money vs. people, guess we know what will win
dee
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Corn View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Corn Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2006 at 11:13am
It will pass as India states. just won't be for 18-36 months.

Edited by Corn
Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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DarlMan View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DarlMan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2006 at 11:18am

India News -- 

Epidemic fear looms large over Navapur
- By Ashish Agashe

http://www.asianage.com/main.asp?la...&RF=DefaultMain

Navapur, (District Nandurbar, Maharashtra), Feb. 21: After the outbreak of bird flu and culling of over nine lakh birds since then, the fear of epidemic looms large over the people of the area. According to locals, many crows, dogs, some cranes have died after getting the same infections as the hen in the 52 poultries across the Navapur region, home to the second largest poultry industry in Maharashtra before the culling of birds actually bought the poultry industry to a standstill.

But what the locals fear the most is humans being affected due to the stench of carcasses of birds that are being buried. As this reporter found out while going through various villages across the region, the fears of the locals are not without reason.

I came across the case of 45-year old Thakur Dodhiya in the village of Ucchal, three km from here which falls in the Gujarat state. Mr Dodhiya works in a sawmill situated right next to a piece of land which National poultry converted into a dumping ground for its dead chicken. Mr Dodhiya was admitted to the Phulwadi government hospital with symptoms of bird flu.

"Though I could not afford it, we were in no position to stay back as vomiting of some greenish fluid, fever, cold, cough was getting unbearable for me," adds Mr Dodhiya.

as his son sitting next to him is visibly angry at him for divulging the economic condition of the family to a journalist.

What hurts Mr Dodhiya the most is that he was just working at the sawmill for five days when he was inflicted with this fever and other problems like cold, cough etc, all symptoms of bird flu.

Mr Dodhiya was discharged from the hospital after being given a dose of Tamiflu tablets and a couple of bottles of saline. When asked about the isolation ward in hospitals that is supposed to house patients like him, Mr Dodhiya said, "Hum garib hain aur hame aise kuch bhi nahi pata (We are poor and do not know anything like this)." The result: Mr Dodhiya is staying in his hut in the village along with his family who stand to get infected with the fatal disease. 

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DarlMan View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DarlMan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2006 at 11:24am
 We met Mr Sonar at his workshop-cum-residence near the Hanuman Mandir in Nawapur.

Mr Sonar said, "Ganesh was never associated with the poultry business. He was heading the organising committee that built a makeshift tent near the town for the Shabri Kumbh which concluded recently."

Ganesh seems to have come in contact with the virus as the tent built for the pilgrims had seven poultries surrounding it.

Ganesh started vomiting blood on February 9 after which he was admitted to a local hospital in Vyara, around 40 km from here. The doctors at Vyara referred Ganesh’s case to Surat the very next day.

After being admitted at Surat, Ganesh died on February 17. "At least the symptoms of bird flu matched with what Ganesh had," said Mr Sonar, who is himself unsure if his son died of bird flu. He, however, maintained that his family did not allow a post-mortem of Ganesh’s body after his death as "they did not want the matter to stretch further".

But the Sonars’ problems do not stop here. After Ganesh’s death on last Friday, blood samples of all the family members staying with Ganesh were collected. After this, two brothers of Ganesh and his mama (uncle) have been admitted to the isolation ward of Navapur sub district hospital. Mr Ramesh Sonar said, "We are not even allowed to meet them, but are regularly in touch with them as my son Dinesh has a mobile phone. They are really healthy and do not have any ailments. Hope that they are released soon." 
 
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Deej View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Deej Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2006 at 11:26am

it would be amazing if this doesn't go h2h in the next few weeks.

dee
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mightymouse Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2006 at 11:31am
I would think that reporters could become carriers of the worst kind.  Hopefully they are taking full precautions but I know they aren't.  This is how H2H could really jump the borders.
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