Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
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noflu4u
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Posted: May 11 2009 at 3:14pm |
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I'm glad you posted ... this was one of the most interesting audios from the CDC...
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FAO brief on swine influenza (swine flu) – 27 April 2009 According to recent updates received from the CDC the novel H1N1 Influenza virus is a genetic reassortment of four different Influenza strains including swine influenza from North America and Eurasia, avian gene segments from North America and human influenza gene segments. This potential genetic combination of swine influenza virus has not been recognised previously among swine or human isolates from anywhere in the world. Further laboratory testing is ongoing in CDC and National Microbiology Laboratory, Winnipeg, Canada. In the diagnosed human cases in the US and Mexico, links to pigs are weak or absent for most cases, suggesting extended person-to-person transmission. There is no evidence of illness in swine at this time There are still major question marks surrounding the origin of the different virus’ building blocks, the disease severity in humans in different locations and countries as well as age groups, and how easily transmission may be sustained in the various epidemiological and demographic settings around the world. FAO response FAO considers these latest reports on swine influenza virus (SIV) infections in humans very worrisome. The novel H1N1 virus can spread around the globe and turn into a pandemic with devastating consequences. Indications are that the virus has already spread among humans over long distances affecting several countries. There is no vaccine that specifically protects humans against this novel swine flu virus. According to the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in Atlanta, is the seasonal influenza vaccine as routinely applied to humans unlikely to provide protection. CDC and WHO also report that the virus is susceptible to the newer antivirals oseltamivir (Tamiflu) and zanamivir (Relenza) but not to the older ones, amantadine and rimantadine. Despite evidence of increased pig and poultry surveillance activities particularly in Europe and Northern America, there is as yet not intensive enough global surveillance system in place to provide precise information on the extend and evolution of virus circulation in pigs and poultry around the world. Following the spread of the H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry in Asia, Europe and Africa, efforts have been stepped up considerably through the FAO and OIE reference laboratory network for influenza viruses (OFFLU), but much work remains in order to be able to monitor worldwide trends and evidence of increased encroachment of domestic animals and humans by influenza viruses. FAO EMPRES and the FAO/OIE Crisis Management Centre-Animal Health are closely working with the network of country, Sub Regional and Regional FAO offices. FAO staff around the world is requested to remain alert, gather further epidemiologic information, report unusual influenza-like events in swine, forward specimen to international influenza reference laboratories and respond to upcoming urgent needs. Coordination and regular update are ongoing with WHO HQs in Geneva, OIE, WHO/PAHO, CDC, USDA/APHIS, the World Bank, FAO/OIE reference laboratories and with many other involved partners. The FAO OIE CMC-AH has been activated to deploy a mission early next week. The proposed objectives of the mission will be to work with the Veterinary Services in Mexico as well as with the pig industry and the public health experts to investigate possible links between swine and human with regard to the recent confirmed and suspected H1N1 human cases and support appropriate communication at the intersectoral level. FAO with its partners will try to assist member countries to obtain a comprehensive global picture of influenza virus circulation in pigs and poultry, including at the human-animal interface. The current situation calls for stepping up global virus surveillance programmes and efforts to understand the epidemiology and ecology of influenza viruses in birds, pigs and humans. Source
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Annie
Valued Member Joined: April 06 2009 Location: East Texas Status: Offline Points: 319 |
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WHO reports reflect as of today:, 0800 Geneva time
4,694 cases from 30 countries, 50 deaths, phase 5, community level P2P not fully sustained in all countries, cases reported in all regions of the world now.
WHO Pandemic Alert Phases, WHO has worked with over a few years (late 1990), a large number of scientists over the past few years have worked on easier ways to apply the phases.
Phase 5: ... in dry terms this reflects two countries, one region, North America has sustained transmittability. It is open to go to Phase 6. Phase 6 indicates the spread of the virus has continued to progress and sustain itself. This is an important point to understand that the spread of the virus has spread and is able to sustain itself in another region outside North America.
Severity:
Disease Severity: at the level of people. If someone gets infected mild vs severity.
Not necessarily how many are dying but the level of severity but do not die.
We know these outbreaks have an effect on different Countries and their economies.
The effects of disease on countries can have different effects due to their economies and populations and the ability to respond to outbreaks. Severity has many aspects to review to rate severity.
The current event is still evolving in the Northern hemisphere. We have seen most of the people have developed mild illness. Those who die are young health people. We still do not know if this is a mild outbreak because things are changing on a daily basis.
We are just a few weeks into the spread of this infection. WHO pointed out in the beginning seven mild cases in Texas and California. But noted there were 18 lab cases in Mexico, but 854 pneumonia cases and 59 who had died. This information was quite worrisome. This is what put into motion a lot of activity of WHO.
Some travel related cases on folding. looking at impact. Much of what is going on now is there has been much planning in the past few years. Things are still in confusion but not as great as what would have been without the preparations we have now in place that may have prevented deaths. ...
President Lula is much more spread out than what people have thought in Brazil. The risks of severity, has it been exaggerated?
Certainly in the flu spread of the Southern Hemisphere , cases are few at the beginning of the flu season. Information has allowed preparation in the event of increased spreading.
Frank Jordan-AP: Is there any reason the outbreak in Europe may develop differently.
Why is there no generic version of Tami-flu being developed?
We still do not understand what has caused these events to occur. Europe has travel related cases which is different from North America's development. It is clear people with infection are spreading the infection and it is being established.
Generic Manufacturers are developing generic medications.
Virtual; Elizabeth Wise-USA Today: Epidemiology Phase ratings?
Severity means different things to different people such as clinicians vs politicians, etc. There is no clear definition of severity. Goal is to reduce the severity effects on people. Reduce the severity of functions on people. Focus on disease impact on people is the most easy to compare in severity. Social is more difficulty to compare.
Virtual; Gold-German Press: Any plans to change the levels of concerns so the different areas of the world can fully understand the concerns, levels of anxiety of people?
There can be harm from disease, here we have measurable means to see the virus is spreading, people are dying, we want to convey this in the pandemic phase which shows what people need to do to prepare. We must stick with measurable ways of appropriate actions of the evolution of the epidemic.
Martin Benedict - AP TV: Tami-flu, is the WHO pushing the use of Tami-flu in market forces?
WHO is concerned about antivirals, vaccines, resources, etc.
There are a couple of classes of antivirals. The current forces are resistant to the other classes, but receptive to Tami-flu. Our primary goal is to try to work with the private sector to increase the supply and access to them. We are working with the manufacturer.
On-line Helen Bransfield Canadian Press: Phases: This phases appears to be mild not an adequate reflection of a phase 5? Is there not some sort of scale of 1,2,3 like the hurricanes scale in each phase? Countries have different choices to make at this phase 5 of these sporadic cases, ways to stop the infections, community mitigation measures. Disruptive, but accepted. When things remain mild disruptions in society may be reduced in decisions. WHO has been working on ways to create severity, Mild, Medium, Severe. This guidance is currently being developed.
Gabriela: Developing countries such as Costa Rica with only one death the severity is still unknown.
Guidance on the threshold of sustained community spread? Everyone is on the alert to disease differences of North American such as in England. It still is very unclear where people are being infected from. In schools we can trace the spread. In the USA we can not trace many of the cases which are creating many respiratory cases. It just is not clear about the spread of infection that has gone beyond the buildings and is just out there.
??? An attempt to solve confusion of data base registrations? How much is new cases or just backlogged cases? Is is wise for politicians to play down this infection? It is some new and backlogged cases. The travel cases are new. The most useful thing is to be aware the situation can change, up or down. Politicians speak for their countries need to remind people this new infection can not be predicted where it will go.
India: Europe, mostly travel cases? Should people put travel plans on hold? How many labs can prove cases. Are the cameras in airports good checks verse manual? WHO would not recommend Travel restrictions or boarder closers because the infection was already wide spread. There are now over 100 laboratories who can now test for this infection. In terms of airport measures: Each country makes their own choices of control for the disease.
??? National Government opinions of Phase 5 verse Phase 6 control levels? A number of Governments have had exchanges/opinions with WHO on why at phase 5 and not 4 or 6. Everyone is trying to get a sense of if we are in the right place. We are looking at the communities and to be sure it really is in the communities before going to phase 6.
??? Japan: China: densely populated. Is the Airport controls effective?
Both Japan and China are in the same situation of other countries where people have returned and are infected. In this modern age infection can come in from many different ways. Each country needs to be sure this disease is NOT spreading in the community. A close watch and monitoring. Measures at airports, each country will make their own determination on people with symptoms, but there may be some without symptoms that will still spread the infection.....
This is a very, VERY, rough transcript of the above top link 45 minute Press Briefing. Annie
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Dense populations are going to be hit very hard by this pestiferousness little (flu virus) monster. "Technologist"
Stock 3 months water, food, weapon/ammo, meds, supplies, and some money at home. |
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noflu4u
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noflu4u
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noflu4u
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thanks for the link...
We have learned that the deaths in Mexico have occurred generally in two groups: one group includes people with chronic disease and the other includes young, healthy adults aged 20-40 years. The first group makes sense: they have chronic diseases which pose well-known risk factors for complications when stressed with acute infection. What we have learned about the second group is that these folks tended to reach the health facilities late, and therefore received the necessary medical attention and treatments late.
So, enhanced, more effective surveillance should help us prevent unnecessary deaths in countries newly reporting cases, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. What is going to happen? We just don't know, so that is why it is vitally important that all measures address the long-term, as well as the short-term implications of understanding and controlling this outbreak.
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noflu4u
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noflu4u
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noflu4u
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noflu4u
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noflu4u
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noflu4u
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noflu4u
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noflu4u
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noflu4u
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noflu4u
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just another thank you...I like the briefings :)
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noflu4u
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noflu4u
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nc_girl
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thanks! They are playing music right now so i guess it still hasn't begun.
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