Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
I believe we have H2H in Indonesia. |
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Thomas Angel
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 16 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 622 |
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I think we'll know when it's time. In the meantime many of us can start restricting ourselves publically. I already started going to the grocery store in the middle of the early morning hours as well as trips to Walmart, the gas station, or wherever. What the hell, you know, there's less people in the stores at 3 or 4 am ( it's pretty damn dead everywhere at 3 AM, no pun intended) and that might be the only advantage I can give myself in the beginning. I can cut down my personal contact with others by not going out to eat, or going to movies, or clubs and bars. I think we'll really know when we start hearing about mass casulties, which will be the day before some numbskull shuts off the internet and the sh*t gets real deep real quick... As long as I can still contact people worldwide anywhere I'm not likely to find myself at some roadblock being told I can't get through. |
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Corn you live in Indnesia. If I was there I think I would already be in quarantine. Best wishes to everyone. I am going in soon. I live in the UK. I haven't been visiting Zoos or farms lately either although there is no (supposed outbreak) here. I am single parent. God speed everyone |
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Well after reading through a few more post, if Indonesia has bird, pig and cat and is seeing what they believe is H2H...then even if it is NOT yet happening...since pigs have a more similar immune system to humans, this has to be devastating news. elbows - if you had to guess, wouldn't you say it's closer to weeks than months??? Darlman - can you share your infection model with us when you get it where you think it's close??? Please??
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elbows
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 339 |
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No, if I had to guess Id say it will be months or years. But I really have no way to know, its just that I already got very concerned that it may of arrived several times in the past, waited weeks, waited months, waited years, and nothing happened. It was similar sorts of stories that prompted my concerns then. So I am looking for different sorts of stories before assuming its arrived again, stories of lots of dead or seriously ill people. Or stories that indicate its spreading widely in a mild form, which is a harder one to watch for as its not being monitored properly.
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stardust
V.I.P. Member Joined: January 21 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 224 |
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I have always felt that if I have knowledge about something that can help someone than I have a moral obligation to share it. What they do with that information is totally up to them. I had backed off talking about it for awhile. However, I feel that the seeds that all of us have planted will start to sprout soon. The people close to us will remember us talking to them about it and will want more info as the news of H2H starts coming out. I feel that I now have enough knowledge and resources to back up with confidance anything that I may be questioned on. Knowledge and prepping is power!
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Guys, this is the first time that I have seen that the supposed source
does not match up with the victims. The virus in the birds is not
a genetic match to the virus that is killing humans.
Barring any other source (and Indonesia is a Moslem country) the
logical conclusion is that we have a humen to human flu.
Of course, the initial source of the information could be wrong, but I do believe he is an earnest, commited professional who would not have said what he did unless he was very very worried. I am convinced that we have H2H. The remaining questions are, "How lethal is it and how easily is it transmitted?" |
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KOMET163
Admin Group Joined: January 15 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 278 |
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The sign to go into hiding will be when others have paniicked and start to hit the stores. I think I will go and get the llast few preps this week. I hope that all of you realize the implications of the threat to our nation our selves and our families. Now I think the big problem will be with the second and third waves of the pandemic. I am going to see if I can get to aldis or dollar General for more spam and canned fruit. I think I am going to get a porta potttie... too
We will be prepared one way or another ....... |
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I went and picked up more canned veggies and some canned meat. I swear it never seems like there is enough - I'm trying to think 1-2 years out and not just a few months. Joe - I read the article and agree that they know something is very bad - but I also know they will need firm evidence that it has gone H2H before putting it out there. This resource said they need more resources and study before they understand the changes...so how long is that??? I keep coming back to the same question; when do I call my extended family and have them head over. This will greatly affect our lives, people will have to quit jobs. As one post said, too soon it ends our livelyhood, too late it ends our lives. I really don't want to wait until 100 people are dying from bird flu here in the states. Maybe that is the only way?? I read on the CDC website a couple of weeks ago that Bush gave the order to quarantine back in 2003 and has envoked it - they had it posted there. If I remember correctly, airports were to quarantine anybody that had any type of symptoms. But if it takes 7 days to start showing symptoms, then that doesn't do a lot of good. I believe travel from Indonesia to the US will come to a halt if H2H is confirmed. I work for Intel corp - they now have a bird flu update on their home page. LOTS of people travel to the countries reporting...I hope & pray they are restricting travel. |
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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fluprepper, the location indonesia on my location is a bad joke. I live in the us, by way of tennessee. stuck here in Louisiana for one more week. then back home to the comforts of the majority of my preps. |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Indonesian Minister: Bird Flu Situation Now
"Emergency" by Indonesian Koran Tempo website on 27 February Jakarta: Agriculture Minister Anton Apriyantono declared that Indonesia was experiencing a bird flu emergency. A swift response was needed to break the chain of infection. "The situation in Indonesia is concerning, no ordinary response will do," said Anton in a discussion on Radio Trijaya last Saturday (25 February). According to Anton, what could be done now was to compel the community to confine their birds. For example, domesticated chickens, previously allowed to roam free around the yard, must now be kept in cages. The government, he said, was mid-way through preparing legislation that would, among other things, cover bird flu issues. The new regulations would address poultry distribution channels and stipulate measures to prevent the further spread of bird flu. The new legislation, according to Anton, would be an amendment to Law No 6/1967, concerning Essential Stipulations for Animal Husbandry and Livestock Health. However, Health Minister Siti Fadilah Supari said that Indonesia was not in a state of emergency over bird flu. "This might be an emergency for the poultry but given that human to human transmission is yet to be proven, it is not yet an emergency for humans. So far, transmission has only occurred between poultry and humans," said Fadilah who was in Ternate when contacted by Tempo. Fadilah said that bird flu had claimed 20 human victims so far, with the number of people infected reaching 28, according to test results in Indonesia and a Hong Kong laboratory. She added that the government had not yet revoked the extraordinary event status declared nationally on 18 September 2005. Similarly, Department of Health Spokesman Lily S. Sulistyowati said that the extraordinary event status remained in place for bird flu. Extraordinary event status meant that an event was exceptional and required serious attention. Lily hoped that the bird flu pandemic would not worsen. However, she acknowledged that people who kept birds domestically were an obstacle in preventing the disease from spreading further. "We are not too worried about breeders because they usually have procedures in place for the disposal of poultry waste. But people who keep chickens in their homes have no such procedures," she said. According to the Director of Animal Health at the Department of Agriculture, Samsul Bachri, 15 million birds across 26 provinces in Indonesia had died from bird flu since 2003. Despite this, there had been no increase in the number of affected provinces. There had only been a change in the status of the provinces. Provinces such as Metropolitan Jakarta, Lampung, West Java, Central Java and East Java were among those hit hardest by bird flu and warranted a priority response. Meanwhile, cases of bird flu in other provinces had only been sporadic. In fact, said Samsul, several provinces such as Benkulu, Central Sulawesi and Southeast Sulawesi, had not reported any cases of bird flu. Story from REDORBIT NEWS: http://www.redorbit.com/news/display/?id=407141 |
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John Oxford a British virologist who was involved in the development of Tamiflu, was quoted recently. Oxford's educated guess predicted the virus would go H2H in 18-months. John Oxford, professor of virology at Barts hospital, London, said the likelihood of a human avian flu pandemic is "high and within a span of, say, 18 months". http://www.guardian.co.uk/birdflu/story/0,,1713623,00.html |
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Falcon
Valued Member Joined: February 20 2006 Status: Offline Points: 684 |
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well that completely bites |
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Wraith
advanced Member Joined: February 06 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 22 |
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This comment refers to the Indonesians not keeping pigs. As a hunter I read stories about hunting all over the world and Papua New Guinea/Indonesia have a HUGE population of wild pigs in the jungles down there. So even though they don't keep pigs they are already there for the virus to mutate in.
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The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape, finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. Voltaire
"There is nothing more frightful than ignorance in action" Einstein |
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Wraith
advanced Member Joined: February 06 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 22 |
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Pretty pitiful actually, you saw what happened after Katrina, all they did was mess stuff up. Nope I figure we are on our own once this thing hits. |
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The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape, finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. Voltaire
"There is nothing more frightful than ignorance in action" Einstein |
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Sorry to hear that you could be on the front line.
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Papua, New Guinea is not the region where most of these flu cases are coming from. Your post is misleading but not wrong. As previously stated, there are Indonesians on the traditional islands of Indonesia that have pigs also, but they are not in abundance like the are in Vietnam. |
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plainsman
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 14 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 177 |
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You're correct Wraith. There are pigs all over Indonesia, both domestic and wild. They're infected with H5N1, as well.
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Wraith
advanced Member Joined: February 06 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 22 |
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The post is not misleading. I did not say that they kept the pigs, I stated wild pigs, which at one time were domestic but escaped and have gone feral. I also did not state Papua New Guinea, I stated Papua New Guinea/Indonesia. Indonesia butts up against Papua New Guinea in the form of Irian Java (West Papua). |
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The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape, finding oneself in the ranks of the insane. Voltaire
"There is nothing more frightful than ignorance in action" Einstein |
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elbows
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 339 |
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Indonesia's pig-killing lambasted EASY TARGET?: Health experts are stumped by Jakarta's extermination campaign, saying there is no evidence the swine are infected with avian fluAP , RANCA IYUH, INDONESIA Saturday, Jul 30, 2005,Page 4 When government workers in white anti-contamination suits descended on Ceng Kim's farm to slaughter his pigs, claiming they were infected with the bird flu virus that killed three people nearby, he hid inside his house. He couldn't bear to watch, but the rest of Indonesia saw the dramatic images on television that night: Squealing pigs electrocuted one by one and tossed into a fire. "My pigs didn't kill anyone," said Kim. "But if the government says they're sick, what can I do?" Pig farmers are not the only ones scratching their heads -- international experts are bewildered as well. They say there is no evidence pigs have been infected with avian flu, despite the government's insistence that the animals are contributing to the recent outbreak in Indonesia, the world's most populous Islamic country. Critics say the government is going after pigs because they are an easy target and may divert attention away from fears about the infection in poultry, a staple food for millions of people throughout the country.
link to full article |
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That is just sick & wrong...I am a vegatarian now. I need to keep reminding myself! I forget and eat meat... I am a vegatarian now..... |
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Since they have has swine flu there for awhile now and did not kill any pigs until this moment, I do not think this was done as a preemptive strike to keep the two viruses from meeting and mutating. I have a bad feeling that they would not be killing the pigs unless they found something.
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elbows
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 06 2006 Location: United Kingdom Status: Offline Points: 339 |
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The pig burning story I posted was from last July, I postd it because people were talking about whether there were pigs there or not.
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Elbows
you have to know that some people read what they want to read and not what the report actually says. That's irrational behaviour. Outdated reports although helpful for the purposes of establishing that there are pigs in Indonesia, should be labelled something like: Just to prove pigs exist in Indonesia. Otherwise it will be utilised for individual interpretation, unless that's what you wanted? You have the right to do that as well of course. |
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I have yet to see a post about no pigs. Of course, I have not read all the posts recently. I had posted that there were pigs (feral and domestic) even though it was a Moslem country, but cautioned that there were far fewer pigs than one would find in a country like Vietnam. Depending upon what statistics one wants to use, the difference per capita between Vietnam and Indonesia is 1 to 10 or about 1 to 20. Definitely more pigs in Vietnam and China per capita. Across Indonesia pigs are not in such abundance that one would expect them to be a resevoir of virus that could be spread to humans with ease. In Vietnam or China that would be the case. I have been all through those islands and never saw a feral pig. My daughter who was a missionary to New Guinea reported seeing many pigs. The native Melanesians of New Guinea love pork, just like the Polynesians, so keep them as well. |
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I said a few times there were not many pigs because it was a muslim
country. Did I cause this upraor about pigs? Will the pigs come for me? Have I broken a holy vow of pig secrecy here? Did Dan Brown marry a pig without telling anybody. Bring on the tea, bring on the tea..... |
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calendula
Valued Member Joined: February 18 2006 Status: Offline Points: 345 |
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Deadly Avian Flu Strain Confirmed as Killer of Hong Kong Birds
Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Three dead birds found in Hong Kong last week were confirmed to have been infected with the deadly H5N1 avian influenza virus, the city's Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department said. The infected birds are two house crows, found in the Kowloon districts of Shek Kip Mei on Feb. 23 and Sham Shui Po on Feb. 20, and a common magpie found on Hong Kong Island on Feb. 24, the department said late yesterday in an e-mailed statement. The Hong Kong government said last month it detected the H5N1 virus in wild domestic birds, after having found the strain only in migratory birds in the previous few years. The disease in birds increases the risk of human infection and creates more opportunity for the virus to mutate into a pandemic form capable of killing millions of people. |
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I am not here to reason, I am here to create"
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Chuck-91
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Has anyone run across a map showing Known outbreaks of BF overlaid with heavy outbreaks of seasonal flu and possibly pig populations? While once it goes H2H it may travel to fast to keep useful track of, such a map might give us indications of where to keep the closest eye on. Have been unable to find such, lots of world maps on where BF is but no world maps of heavy seasonal flu outbreaks or as far as I can find of countries with large pig populations.
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Those who will not learn from history are condemned to repeat it.
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Elizabeth
V.I.P. Member Joined: February 18 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 113 |
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After reading the pig stuff in this thread, I realized with a huge jolt that here in CA we have a lot of feral pigs! OMG. I never thought much about them, other than they cause property damage in some areas. When the wild birds migrate back this spring, I hope they don't meet up with the pigs.....
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Kumera Kid
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No it was a wolf that met up with the three little pigs
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Corn
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Two more Indonesians admitted to hospital with suspected bird flu (English)
JAKARTA -Two more people were admitted to hospital in the Indonesian capital on Wednesday on suspicion of having contracted the deadly bird flu virus, a hospital official said. | 'A 20-year-old and a 12-month-old were admitted separately in the early... |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Corn
Valued Member Joined: December 13 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1219 |
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Indonesian With Bird Flu Symptoms Dies; Iraq Finds No New Cases (English)
March 1 (Bloomberg) -- An Indonesian boy hospitalized after suffering from bird flu symptoms died, according to Jakarta doctors. Iraq found no trace of the virus after screening suspected infections in fowl. | The 11-year-old boy from East Bekasi in ... |
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Speculation is the only tool we have with a threat that can circle the globe in 30 days. Test results&news is slow.Factor in human conditions,politics, money&bingo!The truth!Facts come after the fact.
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Again, a boy dies and we never knew that Sulianti Hospital was even treating a suspected case. We are not getting any info out of Indo. Who knows how many suspected cases that they have right now. We have had three deaths in the last few days, yet they have not reported one "suspected" case. We really need to get the story in Sulianti Hospital. It also makes you wonder what else is going on in the other remote hospital locations in Indo. Last we heard, there was an "emergency" situation in Indonesia. I doubt the situation is magically getting better. |
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Tansau
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'Govt waited for people to die'
Two Jakarta residents died this month of bird flu, bringing the city's death toll to nine. The city administration has only carried out limited culling of ducks and chickens. The Jakarta Post asked people in the city about the issue. Grisilde Papilaja, 52, works in Kuningan, South Jakarta. She lives with her children in Cilandak, South Jakarta: Bird flu is a scary disease. It is nearly as dangerous as SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome). My husband, who lives in Singapore, says that, if the virus mutated, our family would be in the eye of the storm. I am careful to check the hygiene standards of an establishment before I eat there. I think the government has been slow to act. It waited for people to die before it did anything. Other countries carried out mass culls straightaway, when their first birds tested positive. I am not scared to eat chicken, so long as it is cooked well. Marcia Estrelita Gunadi, 30, is a housewife who lives in Pamulang: I keep myself up to date on the bird flu issue. I still eat chicken but have always been stricter about what my two girls eat. In any case, they are both allergic to chicken. At home I take preventative measures. I remove bird nests from our yard and wash away any droppings. I'm in constant fear my girls will get too close to those birds. http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailcity.asp? fileid=20060301.G04&irec=5 |
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OXFORD, England, March 1 (UPI) -- An 11-year-old Indonesian boy has died in Jakarta of what is believed to have been avian influenza, Indonesian doctors announced Wednesday. The boy, from West Java, had been treated at a local hospital for a few days before being moved to Sulianti Saroso, a hospital that specializes in bird-flu cases, where he died Feb. 27. Sulianti Saroso is currently treating 11 patients for avian influenza, suspected and confirmed. Three of those patients are in intensive care. The two most recent admissions are a 25-year-old woman from west Jakarta who is on respiratory assistance and a 1-year-old baby from central Jakarta who was admitted with flu-like symptoms on Tuesday night. Meanwhile: -- Following the discovery in Germany of a dead cat that had been infected with the H5N1 strain of avian influenza, four European countries have placed restrictions on the movement of cats. The cat, which was found Tuesday on the island of Ruegen, the site of Germany's first avian-influenza outbreak last month, is believed to have died after eating an infected bird. In Germany, all cats in areas with H5N1 infection are to be kept indoors. Dogs are to be leashed, and all animals should be observed for strange behavior or signs of illness. Speaking at a news conference in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Tuesday, the state's Agriculture Minister Till Backhaus said: "Cats must be kept away from infected birds ... and in protection zones, cats should be kept in houses. It is important that pet owners keep a close eye on their animals for symptoms of a cold, diarrhea, abnormal fatigue, fever, and if these signs emerge a veterinarian should be contacted." Three other European countries have so far joined Germany in restricting the movement of domestic animals. France and Slovenia have requested that cat owners in infected areas keep their animals indoors, while in Italy, cats and dogs face restricted movement in regions that have seen outbreaks. After the announcement of the discovery of the cat in Ruegen, the World Health Organization sought to allay fears of infection from pets with the following statement: "To date, no human case has been linked to exposure to a diseased cat. Unlike the case in domestic and wild birds, there is no evidence that domestic cats are a reservoir of the virus." -- Niger, one of the world's poorest countries, has launched an international appeal for financial assistance to help it contain avian influenza. Following an outbreak of H5N1 in poultry near the Nigerian border, the government ordered mass poultry culls but lacks the means and equipment, including protective clothing and special chemicals, to begin. -- Morocco has requested that all grain shipments from countries with avian-influenza outbreaks come with food-safety certificates. According to news reports, the Moroccan farm ministry has sent letters saying: "The import of plants and plant-based products from countries not free from bird flu must be, from now on, accompanied by a veterinary certificate in addition to a phytosanitary certificate." The country, which has not seen any bird-flu outbreaks, is one of the world's largest grain importers. Previous outbreaks of animal diseases, including foot-and-mouth disease, have seen similar requests from Morocco that were later echoed by other countries. -- Southern Russia's Krasnodar region has seen a devastating outbreak of avian influenza in a poultry farm 75 miles from the regional capital. Nearly 120,000 chickens died at the farm of Tibilisi in the last week of February. -- Following the discovery of an outbreak of an as yet unidentified H5 strain of avian influenza in birds at the beginning of the week, Pakistan Tuesday began massive poultry culls in the North-West Frontier province. Samples from the infected birds are currently being tested by the World Reference Laboratory in Weybridge, England, for confirmation of the N subtype. In addition to the widespread culls, Pakistani health officials are conducting door-to-door searches for people exhibiting symptoms of avian-influenza infection. No infected humans have yet been found, although several people with flu-like symptoms are currently being kept under observation. -- Samples from sick birds in Ethiopia have been sent to a laboratory in Italy for H5N1 detection. Over the past two weeks nearly 7,000 birds have died on one farm in the south of the country. Dr. Seleshi Zewede, Ethiopian director of animal health, was quoted by South Africa's Independent Online as saying: "A test conducted on 49 dead hens in Gubre Poultry Farm in Endebere district ... has indicated the existence of a virus similar to that of avian bird flu. All chickens in Gubre Poultry Farm will be incinerated as of Tuesday to contain the spread of the virus." http://www.upi.com/ConsumerHealthDaily/view.php?StoryID=2006 0301-015906-7902r |
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AuntBones
Adviser Group Joined: December 09 2005 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 274 |
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Joe I post some time ago about using Methotrexate, a chemotherapy drug to reduce white blood cell count. A report out of London is talking about this now. Have you seen any more information in regards to using chemo drugs?
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